WEBVTT - Fantasy Draft Rankings, Tiers and Strategy (EP. 765) 0:00:06.200 --> 0:00:08.960 Welcome to everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:10.000 Baseball Podcast. 0:00:10.039 --> 0:00:10.840 It is me Joey p. 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:13.960 JOPI is a Pia with me as always is the Welsh, 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:15.960 and today we're gonna take a look at some of 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:18.560 the early ranks and tiers. We're gonna go through the 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.599 first round, second round where Welsh and I might differ. 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:23.919 We spent a lot of time recently doing some deep 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:26.360 dives and some deeper players, but now we're gonna talk 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:28.280 about some of the big boys who are at the 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:30.600 top of drafts and help you kind of choose because 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:33.000 that is how you are building your teams. There aren't 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:37.159 wrong answers necessarily, but maybe there's answers with different opinions here, 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:38.920 and we're gonna give you opinions as we always do 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:40.720 here in the program. We're also gonna talk about our 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.080 top ten starting pitchers or there any difference is there, 0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:46.919 and we're gonna use a little bit of dissenting opinions 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.839 between Welsh and myself to see which players some of 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:51.959 us are a little higher on than the other and 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.400 vice versa. And Welsh, you look like your fresh off 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:56.960 the golf course. I'd ask you what your handicap is. 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:58.760 But we've been friends for a very long time, so 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:01.720 I know of your men many deficits, But seriously, would 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:02.360 you shoot today? 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:05.720 Yeah, one hundred and seventy four thousand. No, I'm not 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:08.679 a very good golf I'm tall, and I've been told 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.640 I need custom clubs, so I can't hit. Wow. 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.200 I can hit irons, but I can't hit a driver. 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.120 So it was like mini golf, a nightmare for you 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:18.800 where you show up to the MILLI golf, No that 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:19.360 you can No. 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:21.160 I can put, I can hit irons, but I can't 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:23.679 do anything else. So I'm pretty cool to be with 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:26.520 that like top golf, but anything else I'm not going 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:28.480 to be super great with. By the way, I just 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:30.800 want to point something out as cool as Fantasy pros is. 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.000 I have been working here full time for you know, 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:35.600 almost two months, but I've been here for a couple 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:40.240 of years. Every single day I learn about something else cool, 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.360 a new tool. I don't want to like placate this stuff. Hey, 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:45.240 we're going to tell you about the cool tools why 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:45.920 you should use them. 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:49.520 Everybody tools. No, we don't get that. We just use it. 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:51.320 Sham wayoo put your draft on it. 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:54.200 But my my, Like, I didn't know about a tool 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:55.960 that we're going to use today which is essentially going 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.400 to turn Joe and I into like a Mortal Kombat 0:01:58.520 --> 0:01:59.960 or like, you know, a street fighter, Like are you 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:01.920 like we're gonna put our ranks up against each I 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.160 guess it would be this way like that, there's a 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:07.280 dissenting tool where we literally, sorry, I had to find 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:07.560 the right. 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.959 To do it. It's hard for us to look at each other. 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:12.560 But yes, yeah, that actually would be a great we 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:14.160 should do like the shot of. 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.120 The Why don't we do that like Rocky? We just yeah, yeah, 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.560 all right, there's your freeze. I'm sure that was someone 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:21.560 podcast by the way. I'm sure people love that on 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:23.359 the audio only version of the show just now. 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.800 But I had no idea about this tool and what 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:27.760 we're gonna do. And this is what we did. We 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:31.120 literally were able to click the dissenting tool on Fantasy Pros. 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:34.519 We clicked Joe's and mine, and it tells us where 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:37.519 our biggest differences are. We also can do it against 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:39.880 ECR if you want. Here's a cool thing that you 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:42.240 can do even if you're not a ranker, go in. 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:45.880 Maybe you really dig Joe's ranks. Hey, our buddy Scott 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:49.400 Bogman fourth in accuracy in draft rankings. We just found 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:51.160 out Mike Mayor as well. Well. Guess what you can 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:54.160 go in You can click their name and see where 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:57.200 they're different against me, Joe or ECR. You can play 0:02:57.200 --> 0:02:58.840 around with it. It's a cool tool that we're gonna 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:02.639 add for our big Old Rankings Tiers episode that I'm 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:05.440 very excited that we're doing, especially because it's like it's 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:06.400 kind of like it's a battle. 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:09.000 It's battle. It's a friendly battle. It's a friendly battle. 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:10.600 It's like a game of golf. It's a friendly battle, 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.679 and afterwards we all go out for cocktails at the 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.600 at the lounge. But dissenting opinions is something I use 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:17.959 all the time for the NFL shows when I'm building 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:19.800 them to see like where Deepro and Erickson are different 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:21.320 from each other and things. We were doing some of 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:23.960 those rank shows, but for baseball, I was like, hey, Walsh, 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:25.600 I have you used the sending opinions for baseball? He's like, 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:26.920 what are you talking about? I said, oh, yeah, we 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:29.720 got it for baseball too, and it is very useful. 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:33.440 And shout out to Scott Bogman number four overall. You 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.040 just recently did the mock Draft show with him a 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.360 couple of days ago. That's on the YouTube channel. Go 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:40.960 back and watch that. So pay attention with Bogman saying 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:42.520 he was fourth overall last year in the ranks, that 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.280 he just came out beat me. You were twelfth, You 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:47.080 were excellent. Mike Maher was fifth. I don't want to 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:49.560 like pump him up too much, but I was twenty third, 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:52.400 So I'm a disgrace to myself and others. Where's Kelly? 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:54.400 I didn't see where the penguin ended up. I gotta 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.160 find that. But in the meantime, while we're looking for that, 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:00.440 before we get to the tiers and whatnot, don't forget 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:02.080 you have a chance to win some free stuff here. 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:07.200 Jazz Chisholm autograph Jersey Miami Marlin's own star outfielder, courtesy 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:10.240 of Bettingpros dot Com. Your place to start betting smarter 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:12.600 not harder, which, by the way, on Betting Pros, Welsh 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.200 and are gonna have an amazing MLB preview coming up 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.119 in March, so make sure you subscribe to the channel 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:18.720 for that. But in the meantime, if you want to 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.240 win the Jazz chishm Jersey. Subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.520 YouTube right now. Click subscribe, ring the ballot to lit 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:27.680 goes Ding. That's it. That's all you gotta do. Comment 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.240 below on the video and you are entered to win 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:34.040 the Jazz Chism Jersey. So comment with your thoughts. Keep 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:36.400 it clean, though, folks. We run a tight ship over here, 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:38.760 and that's all you gotta do to win the Jazz 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:39.880 Chism Jersey. Yes, Welsh. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.359 During leading off last year we had a bet going 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:49.000 we did when we hit fifteen thousand subscribers, Joe has 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:52.440 to do something. May I present a double down? Let 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:54.800 you and I pick a number by the start of 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:57.200 leading off if we could get to what do you 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:57.960 think is reasonable? 0:04:58.000 --> 0:04:59.159 Sixteen or seventeen thousand? 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.040 I want to push the envelope seventeen thousand. That was 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:04.920 my baseball number seventeen, so I feel like I always 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:07.600 were seventeen when I played, so I think that would 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.040 be a nice number. So what's the double hell? Because 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:12.640 fifteen thousand was me wearing the wig for the show 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:15.040 and leading off, Yes, and that's already happening, So I 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:16.440 can't imagine what you have in your brain. 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:21.760 I'm thinking we both wear wigs and we both rock 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:22.920 the mustaches. 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:25.320 We did the mustaches last year, but we do it 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:31.280 fourteen we did with wigs. We do wigs mustache, all right, yeah. 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:33.560 And that would be the first leading off of the 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:35.240 year we would do together. 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.240 If we get to that number seventeen. 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.720 Some of a b I'm in, let's go all right, 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:42.120 So there were seventeen thousand. There, you have it, everybody. 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.919 So we sat for everybody. Mustache, mustache rides and wigs. 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.760 That's what's gonna happen here. Let's get to dissenting opinions. 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.520 Here's some players I like more than the Welsh Louis 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:55.760 Castillo a twelve spot difference from each other peers. I'm 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.080 higher on the closers too, which is weird because you're 0:05:58.120 --> 0:05:59.720 mister closers. I don't know that happened. I have to 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.040 go back to my rankings to fix that. Christian Walker 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.720 doesn't get enough love from you or anybody else. I'm 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.679 higher on people than him. I am hier on Max Fried. 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:11.160 It's a scary one. Adleie Rutchman's the other one. And 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.599 of course, no surprise to anyone's been listening to the shows. 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:17.320 I'm higher than welsh on Alex Bregman by thirty spots. 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:20.520 So if you would have asked me, you have one 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:23.400 player to guess who are descent is gonna be, I 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:24.600 would have said Alex. 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.200 Everybody, he's got a thirty one hundred, one hundred guy. 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:29.000 Like that's basically he's not a thirty. 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:30.840 No, he's not gonna be a thirty. He's gonna be 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:32.920 like a twenty. 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.119 No, he's not twenty. He's a twenty five to twenty 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:38.600 seven guy. Anyway, let's talk about Rutchman, because you know 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:41.120 I am not the big catcher guy. I was surprised 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:43.680 so much that Rutchmand was that guy. That was the 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:46.480 big difference between us. I'm sixteen spots hier on Adlie Rutchman. 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:49.400 I do believe he is a tier unto himself. We 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:51.320 kind of had this discussion when we did the Infield Guide. 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:53.000 If you missed that, go back and listen to the 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.279 previous programs. Watch him on YouTube. We did the Ultimate 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.360 Infield Outfield and we just did the Starting Pitcher Guy 0:06:57.400 --> 0:06:59.359 too with Nick Pollock. They're all up there. You can 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.360 binge watch all all of them. He is a tier 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:06.240 onto himself. Yet I am higher on Bradley Richmond than you. 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:08.440 That was kind of surprising to me. Is that surprising 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:08.960 to you. 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:10.440 No, not at all. 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:13.000 I if I mean, everybody's going to be high on 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.880 pretty much any catcher with me, I agree he is 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:19.240 a tier of his own two catchers. I might prioritize him, 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.520 But even then, I'm in taut right now, taut draft 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.600 and hold fifty teen draft, and hold we're doing. 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:26.840 And it's two catchers because that's how they rolled. 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.000 And I didn't go at Adlegue in the second, the third, 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:32.880 or the fourth, and I think he ended up going 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:33.880 in the third or fourth. 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:36.920 It's just about catchers right now. 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:38.000 I believe. 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:39.600 Right now, as you're listening to this, you can go 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:42.320 over to Fantasy Pros and you can find the. 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:44.160 Welsh's top draft targets. 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:46.600 There's an article for you, and there will be a 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.240 player at every single position if you care. 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:50.160 What I have to say. 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:55.920 The catcher on that list is not ranked one, two, three, four, five, six. 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:58.280 It's not in the top seven or eight because I 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:00.840 don't want to pay high prices for catch I could 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:02.480 be wrong about this, and of course, like the top 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:05.760 guy at a position like Adley is uniquely great. But 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:10.320 I think the gaps of production between the starters and 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:14.600 catchers is the smallest gap of any fantasy position out 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:18.080 there from and that's including closers starting pitchers. There's just 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:20.200 the gap is so small that I can get a 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.000 I think I can get a catcher that can produce 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:24.080 eighty to eighty five percent of the production. 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.600 Of like catcher number two or catcher number three. So 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:28.320 I'm not surprised you would have a catcher higher than me. 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:30.880 Counterpoint to that, and I guess this is skewed because 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:33.439 I play in more points based leagues as opposed to 0:08:33.640 --> 0:08:36.400 like the Rodo world because of all the hits, because 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:38.680 he plays so much, because of the RBI, the run potential, 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:40.440 of the power everything he does, and also the ninety 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:44.640 plus walks last year, like Grutchman, to me, is the 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:46.520 tier into himself and worth a little bit of a 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.200 premium now. And two catcher leagues, I think especially, so 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:51.480 it had to have points. You don't typically get the 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.959 two catchers in a deeper league too. If you're like 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.840 my home league, right's fifteen teams, it's me, it's Chris Meaney, 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.000 it's it's some friends of ours actually in the industry, 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:04.040 So it's like it's somewhere between really good fantasy players 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:05.920 friends of mine and I don't know. I think I 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:07.480 probably invited you and you're like, I mean, too many 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:09.199 of the den when to pay with you? So I 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.720 might have said it just like that, I'm too busy 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:14.760 bring trading hanging out with you? 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:15.920 Is it points? 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.400 Though? Yeah? I had dead points. Oh no, that's why 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:19.760 I'm That's why you don't want to see So I 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:21.199 asked you one did you did? Yeah, you need to 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.040 do it, and I said fine, I only asked one time. 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:25.240 I'm not going to be, you know, belligerent about it. 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.679 But in those formats he becomes very special, and I 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:32.920 think that we haven't seen the complete version of Adeleie Rushman. Yeah, like, 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:34.560 I think there's another gear in this guy that we 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.400 have yet to scratch the surface about. Good he's going 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.400 to be. He is I think an really interesting MVP 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:43.040 candidate this year too, because he's also a catcher because 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.840 of everything he does. I'm still team Julio, but if 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.160 I'm going to hedge on somebody else, that would be 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.040 an interesting one for me. And carrying that over into 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.679 fantasy again, I do think he's see I look at 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:54.240 real Muto and I'm starting to worry. He's in his 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:56.959 thirties now, Like, what's that declines to start to creep in? 0:09:57.559 --> 0:09:59.160 You know, Will Smith still in the middle of that lineup. 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:00.800 It's good, but after that, like there's some guys that 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.480 have some power, like the Alvarez is Moreno's an average guy. 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.440 But I want the total package. A total package to me, 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.360 is is going to be Rutchman because I'm looking ahead 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:12.040 to the projectability, not so much on what even last 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:13.959 year was. I think there's more coming when it comes 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:14.560 to Rushma. 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:17.760 I'm not going to disagree again. Is his er He No, 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:19.800 but he is his guy. If I were to take 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.720 a catcher in the top one hundred, it's only Adley, 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.760 But everything I do, Catcher's fault. Bagman and I we 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:30.720 just did a mock draft on ESPN. On ESPN's platform, 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:36.440 I got j two Ermudo in a twelve team at 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:38.840 I get Gabby Morino at the end of dress. He 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.320 got Sean Murphy in the two hundred. I just don't 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:43.880 think the gap is that big where I'm like, Okay, 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:46.920 Adley is so much better than the next guy that 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:50.120 that is worth more than taking whatever said hitter is 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.720 there versus that tier. I'm down with Adley. I understand 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:55.520 why you're doing it, points leagues, he gets a little 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:58.160 bit of a boost. It is really just more about 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:01.439 like my thoughts on the position, and sure that's anything else, 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:01.760 but he. 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.160 Is the best. Well, let's get to another Why do 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:03.360 you like? 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:04.680 Why do you love Aaron Nola? Why do you. 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:07.600 Read my mind? Nola was the next guy I want 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:09.199 to talk about, and then we'll switch over to the 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.680 guys you like more than me? Nola, I have twelve 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.160 spots higher than you. What I like about Nola is 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:16.960 the consistency, and I'm you know, you know me. I'm 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:19.280 already digging very deep into the betting world of baseball 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.959 right now, and I've replaced maybe more bets than I 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:23.600 should have, but I don't think so. Like I think 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:24.240 I've been very. 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.560 Joe's first thing, by the way, on the podcast we 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.560 got on, I'm like, hey, what's up, Joan, And He's like, 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:30.439 I'm making so many bets. 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.800 Like not even I think there was five I made, 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:36.600 but they were they were very calculated bets that I 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:38.240 think a lot of bets in just a random does 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:40.920 not really well. Look when Matt Olsen to lead the 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.920 league in homers, is it plus eight to fifty you Bennett? Okay, 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.520 like is it? Where is that on FD right now? 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:51.600 But anyway, I digress Aaron Nola, the consistency of Aaron 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:53.280 Nola the last few years. I keep thinking about the 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.040 Phillies and and you know, the Phillies of this team 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:56.920 that just you know, every year just shows up and 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.240 figures it out, and they are able to you know, 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:02.199 get hot at the right time, get in the playoffs. 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.160 And I think, like my money right now, I haven't 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.680 placed it yet, but my money's leaning towards the Phillies 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:09.920 to win this division this year. I'm concerned a little 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:11.720 bit about the Braves middle of the rotation. I don't 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.560 believe in Morton anymore. Sale is a reclamation project to me. 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:16.599 But if you're looking at what this guy's done the 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:18.560 last couple of years, you know, I understand people are 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:20.640 scared away from the four pour six era, But the 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.160 XCRA was three seven to seven, the x FIT was 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.960 three six three. I think he was a little unlucky 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:27.400 last year, and we were talking about one of the 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.280 most consistent guys. We just talked about it on one 0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:32.000 of the shows we just did. Over the last five years, 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.479 Aaron Nola was one of the top five guys in strikeouts, 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:36.600 and he's going later than some of these other aces. 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:38.640 He's going after guys like Yamamo to who haven't thrown 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:39.840 a pitch yet in the big leagues, and I just 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:40.920 think that's straight out wrong. 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.640 The consistency, in my eyes, is more like his every 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:46.920 other year thing. That's the problem, and that's why a 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:47.800 lot of people are back in. 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.640 But like, if you take every other year thing Welsh again, 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:52.800 it's like, that's fine, But you know what the every 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.280 other year thing back two years ago, when his ERA 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:57.480 in twenty twenty one was four to six three, his 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.839 XCRA was three three five, you know, his x FIP 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.520 was three three seven. So it's it's actually not him. 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:05.840 It's just he's got bad luck every other year. And 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:08.800 that's not something though, Okay, I think you can you know, 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.360 quantify and say, well, that's going to happen all that 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:13.440 time on these odd years, Like that's just kind of silly. 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:15.720 All I care is about the consistency of that XCRA 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:18.320 and x FIP is in that mid threes. So when 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.080 the things go awry, at least they still have all 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:22.000 the strikeout potential and the win potential. The Phillies are 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:22.480 gonna get me. 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:24.760 Yeah, maybe the problem is his expected the area is 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.000 the third highest of his career, and the three seven 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:29.520 to one is the highest over the last four years. 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:33.280 And that's a twenty seven that prime range. While a 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:35.840 significant drop in strikeouts, as a matter of fact, it 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.520 is the if you don't count his first two seasons, 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:42.680 so since twenty seventeen on, it's the lowest strikeout percentage 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.560 he's had. To his credit, he's also like lowered his 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:48.240 walks a little bit. But I just don't I don't 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.600 like the strikeout potential. The low nineties guy he went, 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:53.760 he's always thrown the sinker a whole bunch. He went 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.320 primary curveball this year, which was a really good with pitch. 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.000 But I don't know, like, what is that transition going 0:13:58.040 --> 0:13:59.280 to be. Is going to go back to being more 0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:01.760 primary sink or maybe that'll lower the era. I guess 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.760 I'm just unimpressed with Aaron Nola. I don't I have 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:06.640 him really low. I think actually. 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.400 Unimpressed with the guy who has had again throw twenty 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.960 twenty He's had two hundred or more strikeouts Welsh in 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.720 every single season since twenty eighteen. How is that not 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:16.320 impressed of you? 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:18.800 I mean, the innings are consistent, that is the big 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:20.400 strike consistent. 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.560 Era might fluctuate, but geez man. 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:23.760 The era is not consistent. 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.880 The ball's getting harder, hit harder, he's pressing more in 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.400 the pitch mix change from curveball to this last year. 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:32.800 I just don't know if he's into that air like 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.120 where he sits. It's like Bobby Miller or Jerry Perez, 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.560 there's Grayson Rodriguez or' Zach Eflin. Like I'm I'd rather 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.000 take shots in that range of where he is because 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:43.680 maybe he does turn it around. You are right the 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.080 expected the ara it's not awful, And if he gets 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.480 to be a mid three guy again, he's going to 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:50.240 just eat up a bunch of innings. He's gonna have 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:53.600 some wins and he'll get some strikeouts. Maybe it's the 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:56.040 boringness of it, but I've moved off of Aaron Nola's 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:58.000 He's getting a little bit older, he's just getting getting 0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:00.880 hit harder. The strikeouts are going to and I just 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:02.520 have a lot less interest. I am one of the 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:04.680 lowest rankers on him on Fantasy Pros well. 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:06.240 And this is why we're having this opinion, because I 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.480 think it's important to throw out some of these names 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.040 that we have the big differences on. Let's take a 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:12.320 quick break in the action to tell you about Rival Fantasy. 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:16.000 It's officially Fantasy Baseball season and it's time for MLB 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.960 best Ball on Rival Fantasy. That's right, Rival Fantasy now 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:22.840 has best Ball. Full season lobbies are live now until 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:26.000 Opening Day. Then weekly and daily drafts will be available 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:28.160 from opening day through the end of the World Series. 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:30.680 Best Ball is all the fun of the draft without 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:34.200 the season long management. 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You've been higher on tray Turner 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:10.920 than me since tray Turner was in this league. 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:12.600 And I don't even like Trey Turner that much. 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.280 Well, but I always like him less. However much you 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:17.400 like him, I like him less. You're hiring Ellie de 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.200 la Cruz than me. I keep fluctuating with my Ellie 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:22.960 ranking up and down, like it depends on my week. 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:24.720 You know it's probably is. I keep going back, and 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.560 I watched the highlights of certain things. I'm like, man, 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:28.320 he looks so good in the other highlights where he's 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.280 fooled on pitches and things like, like, I'm trying. 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.520 To figure out the highlight of him hitting the the 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.960 BP ball of Hunter off of Hunter Green that smashed 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:41.960 Hunter Green's car. He hit a ball and it broke. 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:42.520