Speaker 1: Welcome to everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast.
Speaker 2: It is me Joey p.
Speaker 1: JOPI is a Pia with me as always is the Welsh,
Speaker 1: and today we're gonna take a look at some of
Speaker 1: the early ranks and tiers. We're gonna go through the
Speaker 1: first round, second round where Welsh and I might differ.
Speaker 1: We spent a lot of time recently doing some deep
Speaker 1: dives and some deeper players, but now we're gonna talk
Speaker 1: about some of the big boys who are at the
Speaker 1: top of drafts and help you kind of choose because
Speaker 1: that is how you are building your teams. There aren't
Speaker 1: wrong answers necessarily, but maybe there's answers with different opinions here,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna give you opinions as we always do
Speaker 1: here in the program. We're also gonna talk about our
Speaker 1: top ten starting pitchers or there any difference is there,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna use a little bit of dissenting opinions
Speaker 1: between Welsh and myself to see which players some of
Speaker 1: us are a little higher on than the other and
Speaker 1: vice versa. And Welsh, you look like your fresh off
Speaker 1: the golf course. I'd ask you what your handicap is.
Speaker 1: But we've been friends for a very long time, so
Speaker 1: I know of your men many deficits, But seriously, would
Speaker 1: you shoot today?
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred and seventy four thousand. No, I'm not
Speaker 2: a very good golf I'm tall, and I've been told
Speaker 2: I need custom clubs, so I can't hit. Wow.
Speaker 3: I can hit irons, but I can't hit a driver.
Speaker 1: So it was like mini golf, a nightmare for you
Speaker 1: where you show up to the MILLI golf, No that
Speaker 1: you can No.
Speaker 2: I can put, I can hit irons, but I can't
Speaker 2: do anything else. So I'm pretty cool to be with
Speaker 2: that like top golf, but anything else I'm not going
Speaker 2: to be super great with. By the way, I just
Speaker 2: want to point something out as cool as Fantasy pros is.
Speaker 2: I have been working here full time for you know,
Speaker 2: almost two months, but I've been here for a couple
Speaker 2: of years. Every single day I learn about something else cool,
Speaker 2: a new tool. I don't want to like placate this stuff. Hey,
Speaker 2: we're going to tell you about the cool tools why
Speaker 2: you should use them.
Speaker 1: Everybody tools. No, we don't get that. We just use it.
Speaker 1: Sham wayoo put your draft on it.
Speaker 2: But my my, Like, I didn't know about a tool
Speaker 2: that we're going to use today which is essentially going
Speaker 2: to turn Joe and I into like a Mortal Kombat
Speaker 2: or like, you know, a street fighter, Like are you
Speaker 2: like we're gonna put our ranks up against each I
Speaker 2: guess it would be this way like that, there's a
Speaker 2: dissenting tool where we literally, sorry, I had to find
Speaker 2: the right.
Speaker 1: To do it. It's hard for us to look at each other.
Speaker 2: But yes, yeah, that actually would be a great we
Speaker 2: should do like the shot of.
Speaker 1: The Why don't we do that like Rocky? We just yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, there's your freeze. I'm sure that was someone
Speaker 1: podcast by the way. I'm sure people love that on
Speaker 1: the audio only version of the show just now.
Speaker 2: But I had no idea about this tool and what
Speaker 2: we're gonna do. And this is what we did. We
Speaker 2: literally were able to click the dissenting tool on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 2: We clicked Joe's and mine, and it tells us where
Speaker 2: our biggest differences are. We also can do it against
Speaker 2: ECR if you want. Here's a cool thing that you
Speaker 2: can do even if you're not a ranker, go in.
Speaker 2: Maybe you really dig Joe's ranks. Hey, our buddy Scott
Speaker 2: Bogman fourth in accuracy in draft rankings. We just found
Speaker 2: out Mike Mayor as well. Well. Guess what you can
Speaker 2: go in You can click their name and see where
Speaker 2: they're different against me, Joe or ECR. You can play
Speaker 2: around with it. It's a cool tool that we're gonna
Speaker 2: add for our big Old Rankings Tiers episode that I'm
Speaker 2: very excited that we're doing, especially because it's like it's
Speaker 2: kind of like it's a battle.
Speaker 1: It's battle. It's a friendly battle. It's a friendly battle.
Speaker 1: It's like a game of golf. It's a friendly battle,
Speaker 1: and afterwards we all go out for cocktails at the
Speaker 1: at the lounge. But dissenting opinions is something I use
Speaker 1: all the time for the NFL shows when I'm building
Speaker 1: them to see like where Deepro and Erickson are different
Speaker 1: from each other and things. We were doing some of
Speaker 1: those rank shows, but for baseball, I was like, hey, Walsh,
Speaker 1: I have you used the sending opinions for baseball? He's like,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? I said, oh, yeah, we
Speaker 1: got it for baseball too, and it is very useful.
Speaker 1: And shout out to Scott Bogman number four overall. You
Speaker 1: just recently did the mock Draft show with him a
Speaker 1: couple of days ago. That's on the YouTube channel. Go
Speaker 1: back and watch that. So pay attention with Bogman saying
Speaker 1: he was fourth overall last year in the ranks, that
Speaker 1: he just came out beat me. You were twelfth, You
Speaker 1: were excellent. Mike Maher was fifth. I don't want to
Speaker 1: like pump him up too much, but I was twenty third,
Speaker 1: So I'm a disgrace to myself and others. Where's Kelly?
Speaker 1: I didn't see where the penguin ended up. I gotta
Speaker 1: find that. But in the meantime, while we're looking for that,
Speaker 1: before we get to the tiers and whatnot, don't forget
Speaker 1: you have a chance to win some free stuff here.
Speaker 1: Jazz Chisholm autograph Jersey Miami Marlin's own star outfielder, courtesy
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Speaker 1: not harder, which, by the way, on Betting Pros, Welsh
Speaker 1: and are gonna have an amazing MLB preview coming up
Speaker 1: in March, so make sure you subscribe to the channel
Speaker 1: for that. But in the meantime, if you want to
Speaker 1: win the Jazz chishm Jersey. Subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB
Speaker 1: YouTube right now. Click subscribe, ring the ballot to lit
Speaker 1: goes Ding. That's it. That's all you gotta do. Comment
Speaker 1: below on the video and you are entered to win
Speaker 1: the Jazz Chism Jersey. So comment with your thoughts. Keep
Speaker 1: it clean, though, folks. We run a tight ship over here,
Speaker 1: and that's all you gotta do to win the Jazz
Speaker 1: Chism Jersey. Yes, Welsh.
Speaker 2: During leading off last year we had a bet going
Speaker 2: we did when we hit fifteen thousand subscribers, Joe has
Speaker 2: to do something. May I present a double down? Let
Speaker 2: you and I pick a number by the start of
Speaker 2: leading off if we could get to what do you
Speaker 2: think is reasonable?
Speaker 3: Sixteen or seventeen thousand?
Speaker 1: I want to push the envelope seventeen thousand. That was
Speaker 1: my baseball number seventeen, so I feel like I always
Speaker 1: were seventeen when I played, so I think that would
Speaker 1: be a nice number. So what's the double hell? Because
Speaker 1: fifteen thousand was me wearing the wig for the show
Speaker 1: and leading off, Yes, and that's already happening, So I
Speaker 1: can't imagine what you have in your brain.
Speaker 2: I'm thinking we both wear wigs and we both rock
Speaker 2: the mustaches.
Speaker 1: We did the mustaches last year, but we do it
Speaker 1: fourteen we did with wigs. We do wigs mustache, all right, yeah.
Speaker 2: And that would be the first leading off of the
Speaker 2: year we would do together.
Speaker 3: If we get to that number seventeen.
Speaker 1: Some of a b I'm in, let's go all right,
Speaker 1: So there were seventeen thousand. There, you have it, everybody.
Speaker 1: So we sat for everybody. Mustache, mustache rides and wigs.
Speaker 1: That's what's gonna happen here. Let's get to dissenting opinions.
Speaker 1: Here's some players I like more than the Welsh Louis
Speaker 1: Castillo a twelve spot difference from each other peers. I'm
Speaker 1: higher on the closers too, which is weird because you're
Speaker 1: mister closers. I don't know that happened. I have to
Speaker 1: go back to my rankings to fix that. Christian Walker
Speaker 1: doesn't get enough love from you or anybody else. I'm
Speaker 1: higher on people than him. I am hier on Max Fried.
Speaker 1: It's a scary one. Adleie Rutchman's the other one. And
Speaker 1: of course, no surprise to anyone's been listening to the shows.
Speaker 1: I'm higher than welsh on Alex Bregman by thirty spots.
Speaker 2: So if you would have asked me, you have one
Speaker 2: player to guess who are descent is gonna be, I
Speaker 2: would have said Alex.
Speaker 1: Everybody, he's got a thirty one hundred, one hundred guy.
Speaker 1: Like that's basically he's not a thirty.
Speaker 2: No, he's not gonna be a thirty. He's gonna be
Speaker 2: like a twenty.
Speaker 1: No, he's not twenty. He's a twenty five to twenty
Speaker 1: seven guy. Anyway, let's talk about Rutchman, because you know
Speaker 1: I am not the big catcher guy. I was surprised
Speaker 1: so much that Rutchmand was that guy. That was the
Speaker 1: big difference between us. I'm sixteen spots hier on Adlie Rutchman.
Speaker 1: I do believe he is a tier unto himself. We
Speaker 1: kind of had this discussion when we did the Infield Guide.
Speaker 1: If you missed that, go back and listen to the
Speaker 1: previous programs. Watch him on YouTube. We did the Ultimate
Speaker 1: Infield Outfield and we just did the Starting Pitcher Guy
Speaker 1: too with Nick Pollock. They're all up there. You can
Speaker 1: binge watch all all of them. He is a tier
Speaker 1: onto himself. Yet I am higher on Bradley Richmond than you.
Speaker 1: That was kind of surprising to me. Is that surprising
Speaker 1: to you.
Speaker 3: No, not at all.
Speaker 2: I if I mean, everybody's going to be high on
Speaker 2: pretty much any catcher with me, I agree he is
Speaker 2: a tier of his own two catchers. I might prioritize him,
Speaker 2: But even then, I'm in taut right now, taut draft
Speaker 2: and hold fifty teen draft, and hold we're doing.
Speaker 3: And it's two catchers because that's how they rolled.
Speaker 2: And I didn't go at Adlegue in the second, the third,
Speaker 2: or the fourth, and I think he ended up going
Speaker 2: in the third or fourth.
Speaker 3: It's just about catchers right now.
Speaker 1: I believe.
Speaker 2: Right now, as you're listening to this, you can go
Speaker 2: over to Fantasy Pros and you can find the.
Speaker 1: Welsh's top draft targets.
Speaker 2: There's an article for you, and there will be a
Speaker 2: player at every single position if you care.
Speaker 3: What I have to say.
Speaker 2: The catcher on that list is not ranked one, two, three, four, five, six.
Speaker 2: It's not in the top seven or eight because I
Speaker 2: don't want to pay high prices for catch I could
Speaker 2: be wrong about this, and of course, like the top
Speaker 2: guy at a position like Adley is uniquely great. But
Speaker 2: I think the gaps of production between the starters and
Speaker 2: catchers is the smallest gap of any fantasy position out
Speaker 2: there from and that's including closers starting pitchers. There's just
Speaker 2: the gap is so small that I can get a
Speaker 2: I think I can get a catcher that can produce
Speaker 2: eighty to eighty five percent of the production.
Speaker 3: Of like catcher number two or catcher number three. So
Speaker 3: I'm not surprised you would have a catcher higher than me.
Speaker 1: Counterpoint to that, and I guess this is skewed because
Speaker 1: I play in more points based leagues as opposed to
Speaker 1: like the Rodo world because of all the hits, because
Speaker 1: he plays so much, because of the RBI, the run potential,
Speaker 1: of the power everything he does, and also the ninety
Speaker 1: plus walks last year, like Grutchman, to me, is the
Speaker 1: tier into himself and worth a little bit of a
Speaker 1: premium now. And two catcher leagues, I think especially, so
Speaker 1: it had to have points. You don't typically get the
Speaker 1: two catchers in a deeper league too. If you're like
Speaker 1: my home league, right's fifteen teams, it's me, it's Chris Meaney,
Speaker 1: it's it's some friends of ours actually in the industry,
Speaker 1: So it's like it's somewhere between really good fantasy players
Speaker 1: friends of mine and I don't know. I think I
Speaker 1: probably invited you and you're like, I mean, too many
Speaker 1: of the den when to pay with you? So I
Speaker 1: might have said it just like that, I'm too busy
Speaker 1: bring trading hanging out with you?
Speaker 3: Is it points?
Speaker 1: Though? Yeah? I had dead points. Oh no, that's why
Speaker 1: I'm That's why you don't want to see So I
Speaker 1: asked you one did you did? Yeah, you need to
Speaker 1: do it, and I said fine, I only asked one time.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be, you know, belligerent about it.
Speaker 1: But in those formats he becomes very special, and I
Speaker 1: think that we haven't seen the complete version of Adeleie Rushman. Yeah, like,
Speaker 1: I think there's another gear in this guy that we
Speaker 1: have yet to scratch the surface about. Good he's going
Speaker 1: to be. He is I think an really interesting MVP
Speaker 1: candidate this year too, because he's also a catcher because
Speaker 1: of everything he does. I'm still team Julio, but if
Speaker 1: I'm going to hedge on somebody else, that would be
Speaker 1: an interesting one for me. And carrying that over into
Speaker 1: fantasy again, I do think he's see I look at
Speaker 1: real Muto and I'm starting to worry. He's in his
Speaker 1: thirties now, Like, what's that declines to start to creep in?
Speaker 1: You know, Will Smith still in the middle of that lineup.
Speaker 1: It's good, but after that, like there's some guys that
Speaker 1: have some power, like the Alvarez is Moreno's an average guy.
Speaker 1: But I want the total package. A total package to me,
Speaker 1: is is going to be Rutchman because I'm looking ahead
Speaker 1: to the projectability, not so much on what even last
Speaker 1: year was. I think there's more coming when it comes
Speaker 1: to Rushma.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to disagree again. Is his er He No,
Speaker 2: but he is his guy. If I were to take
Speaker 2: a catcher in the top one hundred, it's only Adley,
Speaker 2: But everything I do, Catcher's fault. Bagman and I we
Speaker 2: just did a mock draft on ESPN. On ESPN's platform,
Speaker 2: I got j two Ermudo in a twelve team at
Speaker 2: I get Gabby Morino at the end of dress. He
Speaker 2: got Sean Murphy in the two hundred. I just don't
Speaker 2: think the gap is that big where I'm like, Okay,
Speaker 2: Adley is so much better than the next guy that
Speaker 2: that is worth more than taking whatever said hitter is
Speaker 2: there versus that tier. I'm down with Adley. I understand
Speaker 2: why you're doing it, points leagues, he gets a little
Speaker 2: bit of a boost. It is really just more about
Speaker 2: like my thoughts on the position, and sure that's anything else,
Speaker 2: but he.
Speaker 1: Is the best. Well, let's get to another Why do
Speaker 1: you like?
Speaker 3: Why do you love Aaron Nola? Why do you.
Speaker 1: Read my mind? Nola was the next guy I want
Speaker 1: to talk about, and then we'll switch over to the
Speaker 1: guys you like more than me? Nola, I have twelve
Speaker 1: spots higher than you. What I like about Nola is
Speaker 1: the consistency, and I'm you know, you know me. I'm
Speaker 1: already digging very deep into the betting world of baseball
Speaker 1: right now, and I've replaced maybe more bets than I
Speaker 1: should have, but I don't think so. Like I think
Speaker 1: I've been very.
Speaker 2: Joe's first thing, by the way, on the podcast we
Speaker 2: got on, I'm like, hey, what's up, Joan, And He's like,
Speaker 2: I'm making so many bets.
Speaker 1: Like not even I think there was five I made,
Speaker 1: but they were they were very calculated bets that I
Speaker 1: think a lot of bets in just a random does
Speaker 1: not really well. Look when Matt Olsen to lead the
Speaker 1: league in homers, is it plus eight to fifty you Bennett? Okay,
Speaker 1: like is it? Where is that on FD right now?
Speaker 1: But anyway, I digress Aaron Nola, the consistency of Aaron
Speaker 1: Nola the last few years. I keep thinking about the
Speaker 1: Phillies and and you know, the Phillies of this team
Speaker 1: that just you know, every year just shows up and
Speaker 1: figures it out, and they are able to you know,
Speaker 1: get hot at the right time, get in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: And I think, like my money right now, I haven't
Speaker 1: placed it yet, but my money's leaning towards the Phillies
Speaker 1: to win this division this year. I'm concerned a little
Speaker 1: bit about the Braves middle of the rotation. I don't
Speaker 1: believe in Morton anymore. Sale is a reclamation project to me.
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at what this guy's done the
Speaker 1: last couple of years, you know, I understand people are
Speaker 1: scared away from the four pour six era, But the
Speaker 1: XCRA was three seven to seven, the x FIT was
Speaker 1: three six three. I think he was a little unlucky
Speaker 1: last year, and we were talking about one of the
Speaker 1: most consistent guys. We just talked about it on one
Speaker 1: of the shows we just did. Over the last five years,
Speaker 1: Aaron Nola was one of the top five guys in strikeouts,
Speaker 1: and he's going later than some of these other aces.
Speaker 1: He's going after guys like Yamamo to who haven't thrown
Speaker 1: a pitch yet in the big leagues, and I just
Speaker 1: think that's straight out wrong.
Speaker 2: The consistency, in my eyes, is more like his every
Speaker 2: other year thing. That's the problem, and that's why a
Speaker 2: lot of people are back in.
Speaker 1: But like, if you take every other year thing Welsh again,
Speaker 1: it's like, that's fine, But you know what the every
Speaker 1: other year thing back two years ago, when his ERA
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one was four to six three, his
Speaker 1: XCRA was three three five, you know, his x FIP
Speaker 1: was three three seven. So it's it's actually not him.
Speaker 1: It's just he's got bad luck every other year. And
Speaker 1: that's not something though, Okay, I think you can you know,
Speaker 1: quantify and say, well, that's going to happen all that
Speaker 1: time on these odd years, Like that's just kind of silly.
Speaker 1: All I care is about the consistency of that XCRA
Speaker 1: and x FIP is in that mid threes. So when
Speaker 1: the things go awry, at least they still have all
Speaker 1: the strikeout potential and the win potential. The Phillies are
Speaker 1: gonna get me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe the problem is his expected the area is
Speaker 2: the third highest of his career, and the three seven
Speaker 2: to one is the highest over the last four years.
Speaker 2: And that's a twenty seven that prime range. While a
Speaker 2: significant drop in strikeouts, as a matter of fact, it
Speaker 2: is the if you don't count his first two seasons,
Speaker 2: so since twenty seventeen on, it's the lowest strikeout percentage
Speaker 2: he's had. To his credit, he's also like lowered his
Speaker 2: walks a little bit. But I just don't I don't
Speaker 2: like the strikeout potential. The low nineties guy he went,
Speaker 2: he's always thrown the sinker a whole bunch. He went
Speaker 2: primary curveball this year, which was a really good with pitch.
Speaker 2: But I don't know, like, what is that transition going
Speaker 2: to be. Is going to go back to being more
Speaker 2: primary sink or maybe that'll lower the era. I guess
Speaker 2: I'm just unimpressed with Aaron Nola. I don't I have
Speaker 2: him really low. I think actually.
Speaker 1: Unimpressed with the guy who has had again throw twenty
Speaker 1: twenty He's had two hundred or more strikeouts Welsh in
Speaker 1: every single season since twenty eighteen. How is that not
Speaker 1: impressed of you?
Speaker 2: I mean, the innings are consistent, that is the big
Speaker 2: strike consistent.
Speaker 1: Era might fluctuate, but geez man.
Speaker 3: The era is not consistent.
Speaker 2: The ball's getting harder, hit harder, he's pressing more in
Speaker 2: the pitch mix change from curveball to this last year.
Speaker 2: I just don't know if he's into that air like
Speaker 2: where he sits. It's like Bobby Miller or Jerry Perez,
Speaker 2: there's Grayson Rodriguez or' Zach Eflin. Like I'm I'd rather
Speaker 2: take shots in that range of where he is because
Speaker 2: maybe he does turn it around. You are right the
Speaker 2: expected the ara it's not awful, And if he gets
Speaker 2: to be a mid three guy again, he's going to
Speaker 2: just eat up a bunch of innings. He's gonna have
Speaker 2: some wins and he'll get some strikeouts. Maybe it's the
Speaker 2: boringness of it, but I've moved off of Aaron Nola's
Speaker 2: He's getting a little bit older, he's just getting getting
Speaker 2: hit harder. The strikeouts are going to and I just
Speaker 2: have a lot less interest. I am one of the
Speaker 2: lowest rankers on him on Fantasy Pros well.
Speaker 1: And this is why we're having this opinion, because I
Speaker 1: think it's important to throw out some of these names
Speaker 1: that we have the big differences on. Let's take a
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Welsh's. Obviously he's higher on tray Turner
Speaker 1: than me, No surprise. You've been higher on tray Turner
Speaker 1: than me since tray Turner was in this league.
Speaker 3: And I don't even like Trey Turner that much.
Speaker 1: Well, but I always like him less. However much you
Speaker 1: like him, I like him less. You're hiring Ellie de
Speaker 1: la Cruz than me. I keep fluctuating with my Ellie
Speaker 1: ranking up and down, like it depends on my week.
Speaker 1: You know it's probably is. I keep going back, and
Speaker 1: I watched the highlights of certain things. I'm like, man,
Speaker 1: he looks so good in the other highlights where he's
Speaker 1: fooled on pitches and things like, like, I'm trying.
Speaker 2: To figure out the highlight of him hitting the the
Speaker 2: BP ball of Hunter off of Hunter Green that smashed
Speaker 2: Hunter Green's car. He hit a ball and it broke.
Speaker 3: His own window.
Speaker 2: I'll also say, Ozzie, he's been working with Barry Barry
Speaker 2: Larkin a whole lot, which I like.
Speaker 1: But sorry, let's keep going to Let's go with oneal
Speaker 1: Cruz because there's a massive gap there between us. With
Speaker 1: oneal Cruise. It's almost fifty spots different now and again.
Speaker 1: For me, it's also just some of those similar things
Speaker 1: from Ellie Deler which is the swing and miss is there.
Speaker 1: I know the upsides there, I know the talent's there.
Speaker 1: The Pirates are slowly sort of putting things together a
Speaker 1: little bit like I feel like the Pirates, you know,
Speaker 1: even saw it last year. They were hot at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the year. So here's your chance to sell
Speaker 1: everybody on cruise again because onneal Cruz is a player
Speaker 1: that I know everyone was ont on last year. It
Speaker 1: does feel very post type sleeper, But in terms of cost,
Speaker 1: do you think it's post hype sleeper?
Speaker 2: In terms of ADP, I think that's specifically one of
Speaker 2: the reasons. Like based on your own rank. If you
Speaker 2: actually see Ellie somewhere in the seventies and O'Neill O'Neill
Speaker 2: is in the nineties, I mean, there's not much of
Speaker 2: a difference, but it is based on the cost of
Speaker 2: cruise where you guys are taking your risks. Ellie is
Speaker 2: kind of a risk, Gestism is kind of a risk.
Speaker 2: O'Neal Cruz is behind all those guys. We saw him
Speaker 2: after that really bad start with the bad strikeouts at
Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty two, cut the strikeouts over
Speaker 2: that last month to make better contact. Then the beginning
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty three he did the same thing. The
Speaker 2: strikeouts were not there, he was making his contact. Then
Speaker 2: he gets hurt. This is the entire year we rebound.
Speaker 2: He's a bigger power guy than Ellie de la Cruz.
Speaker 2: If we're making that comp which is pretty common here,
Speaker 2: but how often do you see twenty twenty or twenty
Speaker 2: five to twenty five guys come at any type of
Speaker 2: a discount.
Speaker 1: They're usually built up.
Speaker 2: That's not the case here. If O'Neil Cruz meets the
Speaker 2: expectations of projections atc bat X and he's over twenty
Speaker 2: twenty and he hits two forty, he will only be
Speaker 2: able to beat his value be where you draft him.
Speaker 2: He will not be able to go backwards. Run RBIs
Speaker 2: could be maybe at a little bit of a minimum.
Speaker 2: We'll see where he's batting in the order based on runs,
Speaker 2: but he's gone to steal fifteen to twenty five, and
Speaker 2: I legit think he's gonna hit thirty. Massive one of
Speaker 2: the highest max EV guys out there with a cutdown
Speaker 2: strikeouts and that lineup is not that bad, you know,
Speaker 2: Brian Kee Bern Hayes hitting the ball a little bit harder.
Speaker 2: Brian Reynolds is a great source at the top of
Speaker 2: the lineup. I think he is one of the best
Speaker 2: deals out there until he's not, which people like me
Speaker 2: that are into it are gonna make him not a deal.
Speaker 2: But it is hard to come by twenty five, twenty
Speaker 2: five or twenty twenties at any type of a discount,
Speaker 2: and you're getting that outside the eighties. So I want
Speaker 2: Oneal Cruz on every single one of my teams, and
Speaker 2: I think I have to be the highest in the
Speaker 2: world on him as well as ranks. This is just
Speaker 2: gonna be one of those guys that I'm fully in on.
Speaker 1: All right. Again, it's I like the player, but I'm
Speaker 1: looking at the ADP. He's going, you know, eighty seventh
Speaker 1: overall the consensus ADP on fans Bros, which you could
Speaker 1: see it is, but Xander Bogart is going ninety seven,
Speaker 1: and Bogart's I know it's hair together. Sorry, that's fine,
Speaker 1: you can, but I would say that if I'm just
Speaker 1: looking for a straight up shortstyle play, well there's the
Speaker 1: guy that's giving me twenty twenty with a better batting average,
Speaker 1: most likely because the second half of Bogarts was much
Speaker 1: better than the first half. He did that classic struggle
Speaker 1: with the big contract thing. So to me, I'm looking
Speaker 1: at that, I was like, do I want to take
Speaker 1: the risk of Cruise even though maybe there is that
Speaker 1: thirty home run beside, maybe it's there to want to
Speaker 1: settle in for the give me the TS twenty twenty
Speaker 1: to eighty guy. I'm gonna think the twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: eighty guy ten spots later. I'm just going to every time.
Speaker 3: Seems I think, I think, just think.
Speaker 2: I think there's also a balance. Everybody should do it,
Speaker 2: or you should at least come to terms within your
Speaker 2: drafts is find out like where are the places that
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take my shots. I don't think it's great
Speaker 2: to go in and be like everybody is on the
Speaker 2: table and then you're like, I'm taking Ellie and Cruise
Speaker 2: and I'm taking Wyatt Langford and I'm taking Jazz, and
Speaker 2: you want to like find.
Speaker 1: The right spots to do that.
Speaker 2: O'Neil Cruz is one of those for me, you know,
Speaker 2: one of those rookies the Jackson holidays, the cheerios like
Speaker 2: I like those two because the cost is so much
Speaker 2: later based on potential returns. I think it's a lot.
Speaker 2: It is harder to stomach, like Eli day La Cruz
Speaker 2: at his cost in the twenties or thirties or something
Speaker 2: like that, and it not work out.
Speaker 1: When you take Cruise.
Speaker 2: You could have two pitchers and three hitters already, and
Speaker 2: then we've already proven that there's some great hitters behind that.
Speaker 2: It doesn't I don't think it absolutely demolishes like the
Speaker 2: scope of what your team could be, unlike taking a
Speaker 2: risk in those first couple of rounds, like a blow
Speaker 2: up in your face. So that's it is a little
Speaker 2: bit more beyond even just oneal cruise. There could be
Speaker 2: other guys that you pick and choose, but I don't
Speaker 2: want to also take like Jazz and him and then
Speaker 2: a rookie like pick your spots.
Speaker 1: All right, let's continue on with some of these guys.
Speaker 1: Will pick one more out Abrams your fourteen spots higher
Speaker 1: on the me Jazz Chisholm eighteen. But you've always been
Speaker 1: a Jazz guy to wreak Schooble, no doubt there. Yamamoto
Speaker 1: and Mike Trout, you are sixteen spots higher than me,
Speaker 1: which is funny because we just had this Chisholm Trout debate.
Speaker 1: So is there a guy that stands out to you well,
Speaker 1: so you feel like you know this guy, like you
Speaker 1: want to plant your flag and be like, yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: high on this guy and I believe in this guy
Speaker 1: because is it Abrams is a chishm Is it Trout
Speaker 1: or is it one of the pictures school or Yamamoto.
Speaker 1: It's kind of been Yamamoto. I'll tell you.
Speaker 2: I am trying to get a little bit of like
Speaker 2: the physicality out of my brain because like seeing him
Speaker 2: in person, like he is a smaller guy, but it's looked.
Speaker 1: I hate on the short guys, man, like a short
Speaker 1: guys can't catch.
Speaker 3: H I'm not trying to.
Speaker 2: I saw Davey Garcia today over at the White Sox
Speaker 2: and like, that guy's five foot seven, Like they listened
Speaker 2: at five foot nine and I was like, no, you're not, No, sir,
Speaker 2: you're not.
Speaker 3: But and he's a reliever and he was moved into
Speaker 3: a reliever.
Speaker 1: I say, I like to look right in the eyes
Speaker 1: of major league players. I think that's a nice feeling
Speaker 1: for me.
Speaker 2: Well, that would be one that you can get a
Speaker 2: lot of relievers you could take a look at, but
Speaker 2: getting all that out ahead. We talked about that on
Speaker 2: the Ultimate Pitching Guide. Yamamoto stuff looks like it's gonna
Speaker 2: play high. I know Nick wasn't excited about the potential innings,
Speaker 2: but like Yamamoto and Trout, those are two players that
Speaker 2: I'm kind of honed in on this range, two very
Speaker 2: different players. I love Yamamoto as a two. I think
Speaker 2: he's super safe as far as command, low whip numbers,
Speaker 2: good strikeout numbers. Dodgers are gonna get a bunch of wins.
Speaker 2: It's just is that gonna be one hundred and forty
Speaker 2: or one hundred and sixty or one hundred and eighty innings.
Speaker 3: That's something you have to come to terms with. And
Speaker 3: Trout's another one.
Speaker 2: I kind of think I've planted a little bit of
Speaker 2: a flag on because you're getting them at the cheapest
Speaker 2: cost you've ever done before, and thirty five plus homers
Speaker 2: on a regular playing time schedule seems play. The other
Speaker 2: thing I worried about is this team being just such
Speaker 2: a pile of crap at the end of the year.
Speaker 2: They're just like I just go to take a rest
Speaker 2: and you know we won't trade you, but we also
Speaker 2: won't play you.
Speaker 3: But I don't know.
Speaker 2: I feel like again, this is like returns on lower
Speaker 2: costs is a lot easier for me to stomach. And
Speaker 2: I think I've been building teams that I can. I
Speaker 2: can deal with a cruise or I can deal with
Speaker 2: the trout because I haven't taken a whole bunch of
Speaker 2: risks already.
Speaker 1: All Right, let's continue on here and take a look
Speaker 1: at the first round. Now pretty much similar for us
Speaker 1: along with consensus, we both have a Kunya one overall,
Speaker 1: we both have Bobby Wood Junior at two. We both
Speaker 1: have Julio at three, Mookie Bets at four, in Corbyn
Speaker 1: Carol at five. Where we start to differ at six
Speaker 1: you have Fernando Tatis and I have moved up Kyle
Speaker 1: Tucker into the sixth spots. So that's one difference. Again,
Speaker 1: minute difference. I have Tatis at eight, so or splitting hairs.
Speaker 1: It was probably going to shock you is where I
Speaker 1: have Matt Olsen ranked, which I've done a lot of
Speaker 1: work on this and I've looked at a lot of
Speaker 1: first base, a lot of Matt Olsen's stats from last
Speaker 1: year too. I have n't bumped up into the first round,
Speaker 1: and you know, I understand where you're a little lower
Speaker 1: on him.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I'm actually like a little high
Speaker 3: on him still.
Speaker 1: But you just u the Today fan Club. Today I
Speaker 1: became the president of the fan club. I mean, if
Speaker 1: we're just gonna look at the row numbers from Olsen,
Speaker 1: who was also a player in his prime, one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty seven runs last year, one hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: nine RBI, fifty four home runs. Now, I know he
Speaker 1: doesn't steal a basis, so that's fine, but he did
Speaker 1: it to eighty three. And I think you know, if
Speaker 1: you go around the most consensus people, most people will
Speaker 1: have Freddy Freeman ahead of Matt Olsen. He's going eighth overall.
Speaker 1: Molson's going fourteen. And I don't want to just flat
Speaker 1: out say that's wrong, because I understand Freddy Freeman's going
Speaker 1: to give you, you know, the stolen bases that he
Speaker 1: gave you last year. Okay, he stole twenty bags last year,
Speaker 1: thirteen the year before. I don't know if that's sustainable
Speaker 1: at the age of Freddy Freeman though, And I think
Speaker 1: too many people are getting too wrapped up in that
Speaker 1: and saying, oh, it's Freeman over Olson if those so
Speaker 1: one bases come back to ten, does it? I mean,
Speaker 1: we're talking about a guy who hit twenty more homers,
Speaker 1: and I will take those twenty more homers over the
Speaker 1: ten steals because I can find those ten steals in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four Major League Baseball. So let's talk about Olson.
Speaker 1: He's a first round pick for me in the middle.
Speaker 1: What say you can I sell you on Matt Olsen
Speaker 1: in that range?
Speaker 3: I mean, you really don't have well, okay on that right.
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm making a good argument for him,
Speaker 1: Like I feel like I'm like laying it out there.
Speaker 1: Freeman always goes ahead of him. I don't think that
Speaker 1: should be the case anymore.
Speaker 2: You know. The argument that I like, the really like
Speaker 2: that you made is that the stolen bases don't need
Speaker 2: to be a big primary rea. It doesn't need to
Speaker 2: be one of the top two focal points if you're
Speaker 2: gonna make the case for Freddy Freeman over Elson, because
Speaker 2: you can pick those up anywhere, Like it's throw a
Speaker 2: rock and you can pick up a guy that steals
Speaker 2: twelve bases or fifteen bases now, so you're not wrong
Speaker 2: about that. But Freddy Freeman is like elite batting average guy.
Speaker 2: You come back to what you were talking about before
Speaker 2: with like points leagues. He's gonna get tons of hits.
Speaker 2: You know you can count on batting average and he's
Speaker 2: most likely gonna be hitting three and he's gonna have
Speaker 2: Shoe Heeyo Tani and Mookie Bets hitting in front. So
Speaker 2: the RBI opportunities could be absolutely massive, and you still
Speaker 2: have just rate bats behind him, so you know, run
Speaker 2: RBI could go through the roof, though they do. With Olsen,
Speaker 2: the power isn't there to stolen bases. It's really a
Speaker 2: big batting average thing. So you don't have to sell
Speaker 2: me on Olsen because I want Olsen. Olsen is like
Speaker 2: a primary second round pick that I want in a
Speaker 2: lot of leagues. I don't need to wait on first.
Speaker 2: I will gladly take Matt Olsen.
Speaker 1: That you have to have it on the wheel.
Speaker 3: It's just over some of the other names.
Speaker 2: And I am prioritizing Freddy Freeman because I think Freddy
Speaker 2: Freeman is floora floor.
Speaker 3: It is five categories.
Speaker 2: Sure, it's not elite power like I'm gonna get with
Speaker 2: Matt Olsen, but batting average is exponentially better. I do
Speaker 2: get those stolen bases. I think the runs can be higher.
Speaker 2: RBI and homers are maybe a little bit of a difference.
Speaker 2: So selling on Olsen no in this range?
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, because you've got Freeman basically where I
Speaker 1: have Olsen. So you have Kyle Tucker, than Oltani and Freeman.
Speaker 1: I have Kyle, Tucker, Olsen, Fernando. I'm sorry, you have Tatiase, Tucker, Otani, Freeman.
Speaker 1: I have of going downwards, Tucker, Olsen, Tatis and Juan Soto.
Speaker 2: So Otani was my big change. Otani was actually my
Speaker 2: big change that I've done more recently. And I'll be
Speaker 2: frank if if if let's say he qualified in the outfield,
Speaker 2: I think it'd be hard to not have him as
Speaker 2: the number two overall player, if you like really think
Speaker 2: about that. And that's that's what I'm dealing with, Like,
Speaker 2: should I really only have him at eight if he
Speaker 2: qualifies at util?
Speaker 1: Is that I haven't? Right, That's where I've got him,
Speaker 1: and I think him. I think that's reason I think
Speaker 1: you're your conundrum is quite reasonable about that, because you
Speaker 1: are looking at the spot. But I always say the
Speaker 1: same thing as like, well, all those people complain about
Speaker 1: locking in utail spots when David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz
Speaker 1: were banging, Like who cares? Like you're getting productivity? It
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. Is a guy that went to m v
Speaker 1: P what so you know they were they were they
Speaker 1: were banging bang bang, you know like McK foley, Oh
Speaker 1: oh oh yeah, he's completely something.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I got you.
Speaker 1: You're still do over on. Let's look at let's look
Speaker 1: at the bat I've made the Welsh uncomfortable, folks. In
Speaker 1: case you're wating.
Speaker 3: Trying to shut me down, you shut me down a
Speaker 3: little bit.
Speaker 2: All right, We're gonna look at the BATEX, Derek Carty's
Speaker 2: projection system. The bat X, says Shohyotani. Thirty nine homers,
Speaker 2: twenty four stolen bases, one hundred and seven runs, one
Speaker 2: hundred and four RBI with a two ninety three batting average.
Speaker 1: That is the elite of elite, of elite.
Speaker 2: And you could easily justify that over Julio Rodriguez, Corbyn, Carrol,
Speaker 2: his teammate Mookie bets. He's going to steal more than
Speaker 2: Mooki might hit more homers, as many run RBI and
Speaker 2: a better batting average.
Speaker 3: Otani legit can be number two.
Speaker 2: It's the because if you draft him, you're out on
Speaker 2: Marcelo Zuna, you're out on like Jad Martinez if you care,
Speaker 2: and you're kind of behind a little bit positionally. So
Speaker 2: from a pure bat standpoint, I decided, you know what,
Speaker 2: screw it, I'm making him eight. But there's a part
Speaker 2: of me that wants to put him up into that
Speaker 2: core like four and if he qualified at a position.
Speaker 1: If he did, I would agree with you. But he doesn't.
Speaker 1: So we can't not this year anyway. Look in next
Speaker 1: year when he's pitching again, he'll probably be two or one.
Speaker 1: Like that's probably, I mean, depending on the format of
Speaker 1: whatever you're playing in. How it allows. Now we both
Speaker 1: have Soto over Judge, I have Otani Between those two guys.
Speaker 1: The defining factor for me was Sodo over Judge was
Speaker 1: the toe injury. The iron Judge just came out and
Speaker 1: said to the fress his career, he's gonna have to
Speaker 1: manage this toe issue that he's got. That doesn't make
Speaker 1: me feel good at the end of the day. Like
Speaker 1: if I've got to split hairs, and that's what you're
Speaker 1: doing here in the first round. You're splitting hairs. That's
Speaker 1: a big toe to be splitting, you know what I'm
Speaker 1: talking about, Like the Iron Judge thing. If this is
Speaker 1: something that costs him fifteen games a year, that might
Speaker 1: not sound like a lot, but you know what it is.
Speaker 1: It is the difference of you missing a category by
Speaker 1: a few points. It's a difference of you losing a
Speaker 1: week or two in the middle of the season then
Speaker 1: missing out on playoffs, like or even worse if it
Speaker 1: happens at the end of a season and you miss playoffs.
Speaker 1: That was the defining factor for me. Was there something
Speaker 1: for you with Soto over Judge besides that?
Speaker 2: Well, I just want to point like what you're saying
Speaker 2: is like pretty pretty astute because even besides, like you know, hey,
Speaker 2: he could miss some of those games, he's already got
Speaker 2: something like that's even more I don't even need to
Speaker 2: like think too much into it. Taking a guy that
Speaker 2: already has something at that high cost that that's why
Speaker 2: we're dinging Corey Seeker. Cory Seeker might not miss a
Speaker 2: single game. He's kind of noted like I'm not sure
Speaker 2: if I'll be back, but he might not miss any
Speaker 2: time and he could be back and everything's glorious. And
Speaker 2: Corey Seker was a guy that was creeping into the
Speaker 2: first round, but he's still.
Speaker 1: In my first round now, like I'm still wait and
Speaker 1: see about this.
Speaker 3: You know, I moved him back into the mid twenties,
Speaker 3: actually just got him in town.
Speaker 1: Because at the end of the day, if he misses
Speaker 1: like a week, like who cares. This is the same
Speaker 1: stuff that people were doing early on with Machado that
Speaker 1: I thought was right.
Speaker 2: But guys that have had prior injury stuff having more
Speaker 2: things that that's kind.
Speaker 1: Of what not just more a chronic thing. I think
Speaker 1: that's the defining factor for me where it's against I
Speaker 1: don't like Judge, but we are trying to define these
Speaker 1: these small minuscule differences between these great elite players, and
Speaker 1: to me, it's like, well, I just think SODA's gonna
Speaker 1: play more games, so give me Sodo. I agree with that.
Speaker 2: And I mean and also Sodo just came off of
Speaker 2: like you know, career like homers and everything in a
Speaker 2: San Diego ballpark, and now he's gonna go to New
Speaker 2: York like never hit well, Yeah, I'm optimistic that like
Speaker 2: he's gonna ball out again and we could be pushing.
Speaker 2: We're gonna push high thirties, maybe even into forties, lots
Speaker 2: of runs, lots of RBI, like he steals some, and
Speaker 2: we don't have this lingering toe thing. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean it all plays in that he is the guy
Speaker 2: over Judge.
Speaker 1: All right, So the rest of yours after Judge, Jose Ramirez,
Speaker 1: Trade Turner, Mettals, and then mister Jordan Alvarez. The end
Speaker 1: for me after Aaron Judge is Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez,
Speaker 1: Corey Seeger, and Spencer Stryder. So right at the turn
Speaker 1: is where I have Strider and Garrett Cole. You don't
Speaker 1: have any pictures in there, but I understand they're probably
Speaker 1: like right around the corner. But you have Trey Turner
Speaker 1: Stell and I have Corey Seeger. So I think that's
Speaker 1: the interesting debate. I never thought i'd get to this
Speaker 1: point here too, because even though I have never been
Speaker 1: the big Trade Turner guy, everybody always knows that. I
Speaker 1: just think in twenty twenty four, Trade Turner is just
Speaker 1: a little less special than he used to be because
Speaker 1: I can find stolen bases of other places, and I
Speaker 1: want the power. That's where I'm going now. And Corey Seeger,
Speaker 1: I think, is a better chance to give me more power.
Speaker 1: I know he has injury issues every year or too.
Speaker 1: Like I get the risk of Corey Seeger as a
Speaker 1: first round pick, but Welsh Turner over Seeger. You've already
Speaker 1: made that decision so far. If Corey Seeger says I'm healthy,
Speaker 1: good to go, he takes VP, He's plays at the
Speaker 1: end of spring training, does that flip flop for you
Speaker 1: or you're staying true?
Speaker 2: Yeah, if anybody paid attention to my ranks prior to
Speaker 2: the injury, I moved Corey Seger above Trey Turner, so
Speaker 2: I had that I may and that was actually kind
Speaker 2: of a tough one because even though the speed seems
Speaker 2: to be ticking down a little bit, he still stole
Speaker 2: like thirty and the bat is if Tray Turner can
Speaker 2: make that adjustment where he's gonna be like, oh, okay, Hi,
Speaker 2: I'm this guy that steals a bunch of bases, but
Speaker 2: now I'm also gonna hit and then the bases go
Speaker 2: away and he's gonna hit for more power.
Speaker 1: The hard hit number is better.
Speaker 3: I think we can stomach that.
Speaker 2: If he goes from a you know, twenty forty guy
Speaker 2: to a thirty thirty guy to a thirty twenty guy,
Speaker 2: it's good. But Corey Seeger's batting average is a lead
Speaker 2: of elite. The Homers through the roof RBIs to there Cory,
Speaker 2: I mean, Marcus Simeon hitting in front of him is phenomenal.
Speaker 3: So I love Corey Seger. I just he's just got
Speaker 3: injury stuff in.
Speaker 2: The past and then you go and have this was
Speaker 2: it the Herninge surgery and he's probably gonnadh when he
Speaker 2: comes back. It's more to me than him just being like, yeah,
Speaker 2: I should be good for opening Day, Like this is
Speaker 2: a serious thing that he did. I don't think I
Speaker 2: can make the move pretty much no matter what. But
Speaker 2: in my tout league, I took Corey Seeger in the
Speaker 2: third round. I started Corbyn Carroll, Pete Alonzo. It's OBP
Speaker 2: so huge speed, huge power, and then I went with
Speaker 2: Corey Seeger.
Speaker 1: In the third round. It's a great value OBP monster. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a huge value. That's especially in an expert league too,
Speaker 1: that's a huge value. All right, let's get to the
Speaker 1: second round. I've got Garrett Cole starting line with Louis Robert, Albie's,
Speaker 1: Francisco Lindor and Austin Riley. You've got Bryce Harper, Spencer Stryder,
Speaker 1: Austin Reiley, Garrett Cole, Vlad Guerrero Junior popping in there.
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm too low on Harper. I've got
Speaker 1: him outside this He's at twenty one in this next
Speaker 1: grouping there again pretty much usual suspects for the most part,
Speaker 1: But I keep looking at second base and what Ozzi
Speaker 1: Albi's gives me what everybody else gives me that position,
Speaker 1: and I still I can't quit him. Still, I was
Speaker 1: the highest on I'm probably than anybody last year. I'm
Speaker 1: still high on him this year. So in your opinion, Welsh,
Speaker 1: because you've got him in this lower grouping coming up
Speaker 1: in twenty plus, do you think that he should be
Speaker 1: a top twenty player? You still outside of him on
Speaker 1: what comes to Albi's right, not Harper Albe's.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's right in that territory.
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm like insanely optimistic that he's
Speaker 2: going to like reach another level. Part of it actually
Speaker 2: also becomes about and I had so many drafts early
Speaker 2: on why Ozzi Albi's was like a cornerstone for some
Speaker 2: reason of a lot of my drafts. And then I
Speaker 2: would move through and I'd go, boy, I really like
Speaker 2: where labor Tory and boy tell Marte is still there,
Speaker 2: and even on a certain bill they go, you know,
Speaker 2: Andres Menez really makes sense for this team because I
Speaker 2: took a lot of these power hitters in at second
Speaker 2: I kind.
Speaker 1: Of like the position. I like some of the later depth.
Speaker 2: I have to be disciplined about it because I think
Speaker 2: it's it is stupid to be like, well, I'm not
Speaker 2: going to take them because I like a lot of
Speaker 2: these other guys blah blah blah.
Speaker 3: But then you screw up and you don't get them.
Speaker 2: But from the Bryson stop, there's so many stolen bases
Speaker 2: to be had that if I'm given the opportunity for
Speaker 2: a bat like Bryce Harper specifically, who I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: baseball savant is red as red can be. Walk numbers
Speaker 2: way up expected well but top three percent, seven percentile
Speaker 2: expected slug and a two ninety batting average. That and
Speaker 2: expected two ninety batting average to go along with all
Speaker 2: these big, crazy hard hit numbers Bryce Harper's coming back.
Speaker 2: We're gonna get like first round, Bryce Harper coming again.
Speaker 2: I can't take Ozzie Albi's over him. And then when
Speaker 2: you look at those little tiny factors the position, I
Speaker 2: feel a little bit more comfortable with what I can
Speaker 2: get later at second base than I do specifically first
Speaker 2: base or in some instances, I actually think like Luis
Speaker 2: Robert versus Albi's is even kind of a fascinating one
Speaker 2: if you're trying to you know, if you're playing in
Speaker 2: a five outfielder and you're like, oh, I might screw
Speaker 2: up outfield.
Speaker 1: Hey, I've got Albe's at seventeen. I mean, excuse me,
Speaker 1: Robert at seventeen. So I'm a little higher than most
Speaker 1: as well, a little higher than you too. Looking through
Speaker 1: the rest of these, it's pretty much the same players,
Speaker 1: just a different order. After Vlad you have Devers, Louise, Robert, Corey,
Speaker 1: Seeger Lindor, Albi's, Dela Cruz, Alonzo, Corbyn Burns, Michael Harris,
Speaker 1: and Gossman. Now I don't have Harris, I don't have
Speaker 1: Dela Cruz. So some of the different names for me.
Speaker 1: As I'm going through here, it is after Alby's at eighteen,
Speaker 1: Lindor at nineteen, Austin Riley at twenty, then Harper Alvarez,
Speaker 1: Marcus Simeon, who I want to talk about in a second,
Speaker 1: then Devers, Gossman, Corbyn Burns. Maybe a little pitching heavy
Speaker 1: here than some other people, Trey Turner, Vlad Junior, Pete Alonzo,
Speaker 1: and Zach Wheeler. Simeon's the one I want to bring
Speaker 1: up because you've got Dela Cruz in there, which is
Speaker 1: a huge leap of faith, and it's all like the
Speaker 1: hitter version of the Aaronola argument we had at the
Speaker 1: top of the show. This guy scored one hundred runs
Speaker 1: for the last five years. The only aread he didn't
Speaker 1: was guess what twenty twenty when it was the pandemic
Speaker 1: year right, one hundred and twenty three hundred and fifteen hundred,
Speaker 1: one and one twenty two. He has driven in one
Speaker 1: hundred runs. Two of the last three seasons. He has
Speaker 1: stolen fourteen bases or more three seasons in a row.
Speaker 1: He's hitting somewhere around that two sixty five is range.
Speaker 1: That's probably what we're looking at. Like, when do we
Speaker 1: start thinking about Marcus Simeon and giving him more respect.
Speaker 1: I feel like this is almost the exact same argument
Speaker 1: of the Aaron Nola, just the hitter version, where he's there,
Speaker 1: he's in a tough position, he produces it's a you know,
Speaker 1: a good lineup. Like what am I missing? Why am
Speaker 1: I so much higher on Marcus Simeon than the consensus?
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think you're really missing anything. I
Speaker 2: actually think I would just come back to exactly what
Speaker 2: I said about Ozzie Albis.
Speaker 1: He's great, Like, Okay, then how do you put de
Speaker 1: la Cruz over Marcus Simeon? Because you do? And again,
Speaker 1: I love Eli de la Cruz the player, but that
Speaker 1: was a huge leap of faith on a player because
Speaker 1: at his back he is one of these Marcus Simeon
Speaker 1: seasons this year, and I think that's a that's a
Speaker 1: bridge too far from my personal rankings.
Speaker 3: Well, part of it is I think Elli Dailor Cruz
Speaker 3: is gonna steal fifty plus.
Speaker 1: Bases this year that we're gonna go of this argument?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean the guy, the guy stole over
Speaker 2: thirty bases while hitting barely two hundred this year. So
Speaker 2: if in a full playing time and if projections are
Speaker 2: gonna live up to anything in the batting average.
Speaker 1: Where he hits two thirty two forty.
Speaker 2: Also, he goes on and he just did an interview
Speaker 2: at camp where they were asking do you like to
Speaker 2: hit homers or steal bases more? And he's bass love
Speaker 2: stealing bases. I think he's in a steal fifty. I
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be one of the most aggressive base
Speaker 2: stealers in all of baseball this year. So if he
Speaker 2: can hit two forty and he steals fifty, he's gonna
Speaker 2: walk in. And if he hits two thirty or two forty,
Speaker 2: by the way, I know that's not good, he's gonna
Speaker 2: walk into fifteen to twenty homers. So you have a
Speaker 2: legit shot at a twenty to fifty guy who might
Speaker 2: have some stinky batting average. I think the runs in
Speaker 2: RBIs can suffer. But that's the thing, Marcus, I mean,
Speaker 2: it's just gonna be His average isn't awesome, but he's
Speaker 2: just gonna be kind of consistent across the board. You're
Speaker 2: gonna get these high extremes with with a guy like
Speaker 2: Ellie Day La Cruz, and these are different positions. So
Speaker 2: this kind of comes back again to my like where
Speaker 2: do you like to pick and choose on the risk reward.
Speaker 2: Ellie day La Cruz, in my mind, is a player
Speaker 2: that can set you over on stolen bases while producing
Speaker 2: in other categories. But I do feel like Ellie, like O'Neal, Cruise,
Speaker 2: like Jazz Chisholm, like Trout, like any of those guys.
Speaker 2: I do feel like I'm now a little bit more
Speaker 2: cognizant of what's going on in my draft and I
Speaker 2: have to be I have to uh with it, like
Speaker 2: walk on glass a little bit more like I feel
Speaker 2: like I have to be more careful.
Speaker 1: Please, yes, oh, can you please have a welshism here?
Speaker 1: What was it like the are you walking on broken glass?
Speaker 1: Is that what you're trying to do?
Speaker 3: Walking on sunshine?
Speaker 1: Like? You know?
Speaker 2: Uh, what's the where you're being careful? What's the thing
Speaker 2: where you're being careful?
Speaker 3: And you don't want to know Welsh?
Speaker 1: What is the thing where you're being careful?
Speaker 2: What's the thing?
Speaker 3: What's the saying?
Speaker 1: Is it like I'm walking on eggshells? Eggshells? It's eggshells
Speaker 1: walking on broken glass as an Anny Lennox song. So
Speaker 1: and I know we're the only baseball podcast who made
Speaker 1: it any Lennox reference today, I could guarantee.
Speaker 3: You walking on sunshine.
Speaker 1: Guys. The rest of these again, your second round mind
Speaker 1: is very, very similar in terms of the players, just
Speaker 1: a couple of different orders here and there. But I
Speaker 1: will say too, like I think I respect you of
Speaker 1: Michael Harrison there, I'm I think I will be moving
Speaker 1: Harris in. The problem is who I'm moving out, which
Speaker 1: is probably Zach Wheeler at thirty, and that's probably a
Speaker 1: change I'm going to make. So the two changes that
Speaker 1: I'm going to make after this conversation too with you
Speaker 1: too is Harper. I have to move Harper up a
Speaker 1: little bit, and I got to move Harris into that
Speaker 1: top thirty. I'll probably bump Wheeler for that. But I
Speaker 1: gotta tell you, man, I think Marcus Simeon deserves more love.
Speaker 1: He should be in the top thirty for everybody, maybe
Speaker 1: even top twenty five, because I have him twenty three overall,
Speaker 1: and I just keep looking at it again. The position
Speaker 1: he plays, the productivity, the consistency. I think it's the
Speaker 1: same thing where you know everyone, you on everyone, you
Speaker 1: you make fun of me about Alex Bregman all the time.
Speaker 1: Is Alex Bregman. All world is as good as Simeon
Speaker 1: in fantasy right now. No, but man, that floor is
Speaker 1: just underappreciated, and I'm sick and tired of people just
Speaker 1: not appreciating it.
Speaker 2: If you don't have Marcus Simeon and Alex Bregman on
Speaker 2: your next mock draft team or real draft or whatever,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be disappointed.
Speaker 1: Well, let's speaking of disappointment, let's get to our starting
Speaker 1: pitcher lists here. Now, it's pretty much the same. Actually,
Speaker 1: to be honest, we both have Strider at one. We
Speaker 1: both have garat Cole too. I've got Gosman ahead of Burns.
Speaker 1: You've got Burns ahead of Gosplin. Why do you have
Speaker 1: Burns ahead of Gosmin.
Speaker 3: I mean, I love the movie, talked about that on
Speaker 3: the pitching.
Speaker 1: I love the move.
Speaker 2: I mean it's a little bit more ballpark friendly. I
Speaker 2: love the organization, I love the offensive support. I just
Speaker 2: think I think everything around is in intangible, not to
Speaker 2: say like there's a lot of weird clouded Burns and
Speaker 2: the Brewers and not competing like you're gonna be in
Speaker 2: in the competition, independent race the entire season long. It
Speaker 2: is a tougher division that's something to consider. But I
Speaker 2: think Corbyn Burns is still towing the lines of like
Speaker 2: being really a pitcher, and Orioles have done really great
Speaker 2: things with pitchers in general, So if they do get
Speaker 2: their hands on him at all, maybe he's tinkering around.
Speaker 2: I feel like he's in really good hands. So I'll
Speaker 2: jump back into like another two hundred and fifty strikeout,
Speaker 2: you know season for Corbyn Burns.
Speaker 3: I think he's easily the number three.
Speaker 1: I'm going Gosma over Burns because I think Gosman's going
Speaker 1: to have more strikeouts than him this year, same division.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough either way. But you know, Gosman
Speaker 1: last year are two thirty seven. I think there's a
Speaker 1: better chance he gets back to two thirty than Corbyn Burns,
Speaker 1: who's sitting at two hundred last year. And again it's
Speaker 1: thirty strikeouts. This is not a small amount. It's kind
Speaker 1: of like that Freddie Freeman argument with Matt Olson. We're
Speaker 1: talking about a big difference here, Like these are difference
Speaker 1: makers in these levels, especially in season. Long rodo after
Speaker 1: number four is done, Number five is Zach Wheeler for
Speaker 1: both of us. Number six, of course you have George Kirby,
Speaker 1: I have Louis Castillo, his teammate. At seven, I have
Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez, which you also have Pablo Lopez at eight,
Speaker 1: I have George Kirby. Aa do you have Louis Castillo?
Speaker 1: So we just flip flopped our Mariners. By the way, everybody,
Speaker 1: The Mariners I think are the best rotation in baseball,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna keep talking about this and saying it.
Speaker 1: I've already bet them to win the American League West
Speaker 1: because of that rotation. I think it's gonna help Julio
Speaker 1: get to MVP as well. So I'm gonna be mister
Speaker 1: Mariner this year. I might have to go get me
Speaker 1: like a Marins a marinerswag like some serious.
Speaker 3: I like the I like the trident that's like this
Speaker 3: tri the trident one that's on there.
Speaker 1: Ye cool, But I wanted Trent Lions won a playoff game.
Speaker 1: I think the Seattle Mariners can get to a World Series.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four is gonna be a fun year.
Speaker 2: They got the rotation and the bullpen for it. I
Speaker 2: The thing that keeps floating around for me is like
Speaker 2: I think Matt Brash could end up being like the
Speaker 2: biggest surprise closer if they were to give him that
Speaker 2: job with that sweeper, I think, I think that team
Speaker 2: is in a good position with a good bullpen, good
Speaker 2: starting pitchers. But I wanted to add something that works.
Speaker 1: Your no injuries happened. You got Gilbert, you got wu
Speaker 1: you got Bryce Miller, you got all these guys here
Speaker 1: and more to come.
Speaker 2: Yeah, going backwards just a tiny bit when you said
Speaker 2: Gossman over Burns, I do want to point out our
Speaker 2: buddy Ariol Cohen's ATC projections agree with you if you
Speaker 2: believe the like actual number, like the you know, like
Speaker 2: two thirteen, they have Gossman at two hundred and thirteen
Speaker 2: strikeouts versus Burns two hundred and ten, and the innings
Speaker 2: are actually six more innings for Corbyn Burns, so they
Speaker 2: fa ATC favors your argument on Gossman.
Speaker 1: All right, So after we switched our Mariners, you've got Gallon,
Speaker 1: Castillo and Glass. Now I've got Kirby Glass now and Gallon,
Speaker 1: So again pretty much the same guys. Everybody knows I'm
Speaker 1: a little lower on Gallon because of the innings thing.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you one question here where we
Speaker 1: close out the show, and I'm gonna give my answer
Speaker 1: to who's the one guy when we look up that
Speaker 1: cracks this top ten that's not in our top ten?
Speaker 1: Right now, I know I have my answer. Do you
Speaker 1: need more time to think about it? Because I can
Speaker 1: give mine, Why don't you start with yours?
Speaker 3: I got quite a few names.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go simple here now. Noah was a guy
Speaker 1: that I just, you know, talked about. He's only a twelve.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go a little deeper, have a little bit
Speaker 1: more fun. Freddy Peralta last year, through one hundred and
Speaker 1: sixty five innings, struck out two hundred and ten guys.
Speaker 1: If he throws one hundred and eighty innings and he
Speaker 1: goes to two twenty, he's going to be in this group.
Speaker 1: The era was a little high three eighty six, but
Speaker 1: some of the deeper stats are sill pretty good. The
Speaker 1: whip was one point one to two, was very solid.
Speaker 1: I think the brewers, the brewers have to believe in
Speaker 1: Freddy Parolta to have made this Corbyn Burns trade, because
Speaker 1: I don't think that they're throwing in the towel. I
Speaker 1: think they're just saying, hey, we've got to restructure what
Speaker 1: we're doing here. So if they believe in Freddy Parolta,
Speaker 1: I think everybody else should. I think he's a player
Speaker 1: that's going at a discount. It should not be. I
Speaker 1: don't think he is. I think he is a fantasy ace,
Speaker 1: and I'm okay with him as my fantasy ace. I
Speaker 1: know some people are not, but I am Welsh. Is
Speaker 1: there a name for you not in this top ten
Speaker 1: you think is going to crack it? Yeah?
Speaker 2: There are a few guys that jumped to my mind
Speaker 2: that aren't going to be picked, Like Bobby Miller was
Speaker 2: one of those kind of an innings cap, Yamamoto was
Speaker 2: in there, Joe Ryan, those are a few of the
Speaker 2: guys that I immediately thought of. Joe Muskrove I throw
Speaker 2: it as well. But the guy I'm going to settle
Speaker 2: in is Logan Web. Logan Web I think is one
Speaker 2: of those, just simply because the guy who's going to
Speaker 2: absolutely eight innings, he had over two hundred and sixteen
Speaker 2: this past year, really really low walk numbers. If George
Speaker 2: Kirby can do it, Logan Webb coming at a better cost,
Speaker 2: he absolutely can as well. Ballpark factors work pretty decently.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a pretty tough division. The difference that
Speaker 2: holds him back is probably the strikeout numbers overall. But
Speaker 2: you got a great closer, you got a solid offense around.
Speaker 2: But this is just a guy that can continuously maintain
Speaker 2: some really low era, doesn't walk guys, and if the
Speaker 2: strikeouts come up, I think he could creep into the
Speaker 2: top ten.
Speaker 1: So here's what we want you to do. Now that
Speaker 1: you listen to all this, go to Fantasy words dot
Speaker 1: com slash mock or just download draft Wizard and put
Speaker 1: it on your phone and go start wearing some mock drafts.
Speaker 1: With this information, we're giving you great your own cheat sheets,
Speaker 1: use cheat sheets and the drafts software to you know,
Speaker 1: put Tig Welsh's rankings, my rankings. Whoever's Moro Price got
Speaker 1: Bogman and Mike Mary might be better off with theirs,
Speaker 1: but still take that happen. I don't know. We're doing
Speaker 1: an investigation. It's going to be a whole thing. The
Speaker 1: draft kit is also available for free fantasypros dot com
Speaker 1: slash draft Kit. Go there, check it out. Start to
Speaker 1: get prepared because pictures and catchers are here. We have baseball.
Speaker 1: It's already started. Like we are rocking and rolling right now,
Speaker 1: So get ahead of everybody else. Run the draft simulation.
Speaker 1: Sink your leagues. It's free. Sink your leagues. Check out
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Speaker 1: you can to unlock all the other ones and get
Speaker 1: your draft software hooked up to all of your drafts
Speaker 1: so that you are more prepared for everybody else to
Speaker 1: make the best decisions, because the draft is just part
Speaker 1: of it. Draft Wizard is there to set you up
Speaker 1: for success, and then my playbook is there to take
Speaker 1: you through the rest of the season. So go ahead,
Speaker 1: use the tools here Fantasy pros and I don't just
Speaker 1: mean me in the Welsh and let's subscribe to the channel,
Speaker 1: drop the comments, win a Jazz Chishom jersey. So again, subscribe,
Speaker 1: drop a comment, you might win a jersey and you
Speaker 1: might see us with the mustaches again this year. Plus wigs.
Speaker 1: That's doubleing. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Now, so here's a question, huh do we do like
Speaker 2: long hair hippiewigs or do we do live.
Speaker 1: I think I think we do a whole thing on
Speaker 1: social media where we have a couple of choices and
Speaker 1: we let them choose, or maybe we do it for
Speaker 1: our discord people fantasypros dot Com slash chat Man of
Speaker 1: the pluses of joining Discord. You get to choose the
Speaker 1: wig for Joe Pizi in a poll.
Speaker 2: Mister potato heads, maybe you know what we should do.
Speaker 2: Can we get an interactive tool where we could have
Speaker 2: us and then they could just enter like put like hair,
Speaker 2: and maybe that might be the team a little far.
Speaker 2: I think we might have to just be going to
Speaker 2: Spirit Halloween and getting some wigs. I think that's I
Speaker 2: just have my big aspirations. Well, I want them to
Speaker 2: be able to figure out what they want.
Speaker 1: These are your big aspirations after all these years, this
Speaker 1: is your.
Speaker 3: Yeah, mister potato head like Welsh and Joe.
Speaker 1: Heads, well you know, all right, let's get out of
Speaker 1: here before we walk into any more glass or eggshells.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p We'll
Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids. Sorry,