WEBVTT - Surveillance: ECB Decision Day

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily. We bring you

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<v Speaker 1>insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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<v Speaker 1>Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Right now, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is well timed. Sarah Bianchi joins us working with

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<v Speaker 1>Edward Simon over at evercres I s I ahead of

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<v Speaker 1>US public policy and political strategy and actually very experienced

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<v Speaker 1>in the Washington science of gridlock. Did we just see, Sarah,

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<v Speaker 1>the end of gridlock? Is this what less gridlock looks like? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it certainly is an impressive victory. Even though there were

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<v Speaker 1>no Republicans on this bill. With a fifty the Senate,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a very narrow majority and really holding all of them.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to give your hats off to President Biden

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<v Speaker 1>and his team in a narrow majority in the House.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think they're showing you that they were sent

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<v Speaker 1>here to get things done. Now their next package is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be even harder, So I'm not sure the

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<v Speaker 1>era of grid luck is over. They're going to try

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<v Speaker 1>to do things that have taxes and more difficult spending.

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<v Speaker 1>So we got some rough sledding to go, but certainly

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<v Speaker 1>today they ought to feel very good. Sarah, is there

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<v Speaker 1>any chance of a bipartisan infrastructure bill? You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's a possibility that they could pull off some

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<v Speaker 1>of the infrastructure pieces and try to pass that in

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<v Speaker 1>the bipartisan way. What we've seen as Senator Mansion already

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<v Speaker 1>saying I'm not going down this other route again. I've

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<v Speaker 1>done this reconciliation only things, so they're at least kind

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<v Speaker 1>of have to get caught trying. But I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to see Republicans really biting on some of

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<v Speaker 1>these tax revenues that Democrats are talking about. So the

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<v Speaker 1>only way I see bipartis and hip is if they're

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<v Speaker 1>willing to pull off call it five a trillion just

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<v Speaker 1>on infrastructure and then try to do the rest on

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<v Speaker 1>their own. Is democrats, Sarah, it is one point nine trillion.

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<v Speaker 1>Do income replacement in the emergency of the have nots

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<v Speaker 1>of America or couldn't actually advanced prosperity in productivity in America.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot in this bill for everybody. Uh, there

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<v Speaker 1>is checks and there is child UH resources for families

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<v Speaker 1>with children, but there is also some testing and some

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<v Speaker 1>vaccination money that should benefit all of us across the board.

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<v Speaker 1>I think really the next bill is designed to really

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<v Speaker 1>strengthen the country. That's where the infrastructure comes, That's where

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<v Speaker 1>the R and D comes for things like five G

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<v Speaker 1>and semiconductors. So I think the next one is really

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<v Speaker 1>more of an investment in the country. But this one, again,

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest stimulus for all of us is if we

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<v Speaker 1>can get out of COVID, and so I think all

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<v Speaker 1>of it will be benefit to to to everyone, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's not all the answers for sure. Sarah, good to

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<v Speaker 1>see you and we appreciate your insight. Thank you, Sarah. Byankee.

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<v Speaker 1>There about the core side, Calen picker Um advanced as

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<v Speaker 1>a discussion. We welcome all of you on radio and

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<v Speaker 1>television worldwide with Barenburg, their senior economists. I just have

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<v Speaker 1>to know now, Callen the job owning you will listen

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<v Speaker 1>to with this press conference today, John has made it

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<v Speaker 1>clear to me this is not a snooze fest. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a press conference of import What will you listen for? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I expect the ECB basically to reaffirm this commitment to

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<v Speaker 1>buy bonds a little faster in the near term. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the first once what we've heard sounds like a

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<v Speaker 1>fairly well judged intervention because the ECB is facing what

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<v Speaker 1>you might describe as a time inconsistency problem. The market

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<v Speaker 1>has welcomed the big policy intervention around the world. We

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<v Speaker 1>have rising inflation expectations, growth and Mentumy is expected to

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<v Speaker 1>be very strong over the next couple of years, but

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<v Speaker 1>Europe is still under lockdown, and hence rising interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>at this moment is not what the economy needs. So

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<v Speaker 1>the ECV is essentially bought a little bit of time.

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<v Speaker 1>It will keep interest rates low and then probably that

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<v Speaker 1>welcomed rising interest rates reflecting better economic conditions will come

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<v Speaker 1>later this year, once the economy is opened and once

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<v Speaker 1>economic momentum is robust. Callum. I just wonder how divided

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<v Speaker 1>the Government Council is on this plan. The key letter

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<v Speaker 1>and the acronym PEP is a it's emergency. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic emergency proceased program And for some members of the

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<v Speaker 1>Government Council later this year, Calum, they might not consider

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<v Speaker 1>conditions emergency conditions. How do you see that progressing in

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<v Speaker 1>the year ahead. Well, I just like to cast our

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<v Speaker 1>minds like a year ago, that was a real emergency.

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<v Speaker 1>We were facing at a global level the prospect of

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<v Speaker 1>a major financial crisis, a major deflation, and we have

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<v Speaker 1>had an m precedented policy response that has worked, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're not yet out of the woods, and hence the

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<v Speaker 1>underlying risks are still significant. I think what we will

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<v Speaker 1>probably see actually over the course of this year is

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<v Speaker 1>some evidence that might make people worry about inflation risks.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of one of factors will push inflation probably

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<v Speaker 1>above the two percent target for the ECB during the

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<v Speaker 1>middle of this year, but the ECB will have to

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<v Speaker 1>just remind everyone that these are one off powerful factors

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<v Speaker 1>that will unwind. We don't think we get on core

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<v Speaker 1>inflation anything close to two percent over the next couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years. We think we get close to one and

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<v Speaker 1>a half percent by end two and hence there's still

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<v Speaker 1>a big justification to keep buying bonds at least for

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<v Speaker 1>the next twelve months, perhaps even eighteen months. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the Japanification of the Eurozone. This idea that

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<v Speaker 1>the year hit the ECB will own a substantial portion

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<v Speaker 1>of overall debt from the government's in that region. What

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<v Speaker 1>proportion could that be by the end of this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Calum Well, I have to just jump in there. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't like this description Japanification of Europe. If the Eurozone,

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<v Speaker 1>if Europe would have enjoyed GDP per capita gains as

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<v Speaker 1>strong as Japan over the last decade, I doubt very

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<v Speaker 1>much we would have suffered the political uncertainty and the

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<v Speaker 1>problems that we've had. The ECB will rapidly expand its

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<v Speaker 1>balance sheet as necessary to lift inflation expectations, but the

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<v Speaker 1>real problems come from productivity, from weak investment momentum, and

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<v Speaker 1>for that we have to look at fiscal policymakers. All

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<v Speaker 1>the central Bank can do is grease the wheels to

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<v Speaker 1>allow actually commerce to improve with a bit of look

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<v Speaker 1>boosted by some fiscal support. So I think it's other

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<v Speaker 1>policymakers that we should be thinking about if we're really

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<v Speaker 1>worried about this so called Japanification risk. I gotta say, John,

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<v Speaker 1>I've never heard that before. When you start talking about Japanification,

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<v Speaker 1>usually it's a slur almost to an economic policy considered

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<v Speaker 1>slow growth and very little inflation for a very long

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<v Speaker 1>time with a lot of government intervention. Calum just there

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<v Speaker 1>seemed to say that was too generous for the Eurozone

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<v Speaker 1>based on what is seeing with respect to gra Let's

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<v Speaker 1>take a look at what we're seeing in this market

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<v Speaker 1>right now. You're a dollar one nine nine and coming

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<v Speaker 1>in a couple of tenths of one percent off session high,

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<v Speaker 1>still positive a tenth, still a stronger euro. But the

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<v Speaker 1>bid is in in the bond market right now. It's

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<v Speaker 1>Haalian yields down by five basis points to zero point

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<v Speaker 1>six to its Just quickly, John, you take it back

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<v Speaker 1>to Kilhen But John, very quickly, here the Swiss twenty year,

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<v Speaker 1>which is, you know, somewhat away from Europe, that does

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing with a more negative yield. Right now.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought we've seen the last few days. It is

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<v Speaker 1>a clear response to market conditions. And Callum might go further.

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<v Speaker 1>I think what's really important here is this is the

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<v Speaker 1>message from the entire governing council this morning, Callum, and

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<v Speaker 1>I just wonder how much division within the Governing Council

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<v Speaker 1>there still might be about plans to lean into the

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<v Speaker 1>financial conditions that we've seen. Titan just a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>undue tightening in the words of some ECB officials over

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of weeks. Well, I think the Governing

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<v Speaker 1>Council will want to make sure that the front end

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<v Speaker 1>of this recovery is a strong one. That's the best

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<v Speaker 1>bet for actually hitting the two percent target in time.

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<v Speaker 1>I think one of the issues in Europe at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment is a worry that actually it's some of the

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<v Speaker 1>inflationary excesses from the other side of the Atlantic, the US,

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<v Speaker 1>which are spilling over into the European market. And again,

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<v Speaker 1>just to repeat an earlier point, rising interest rates tell

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<v Speaker 1>us actually growth and inflation expectations are improving. They're a

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<v Speaker 1>sign that the ECB policy is working. But there's a

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<v Speaker 1>time inconsistency. If those rates rise before you actually get

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<v Speaker 1>the good growth in inflation, then it could be an

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<v Speaker 1>impediment of growth. So I suspect actually there's pretty strong

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<v Speaker 1>consensus to act against this modest time in financial conditions.

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<v Speaker 1>Just to play things on the safe side, can goardscratch

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<v Speaker 1>up Calen Picker in there, Barrenberg Senior economists Sebastian Page

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<v Speaker 1>of Tiro Price, Yes, a multi asset strategist, as I

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<v Speaker 1>said before his book Beyond Diversification is except cutly acute

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<v Speaker 1>about what to do given the mail stream of news

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<v Speaker 1>flow that we see today, semesterion, what is your major

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<v Speaker 1>message on how to reallocate now? Is it to go

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<v Speaker 1>back to fundamentals or is there a new set of rules?

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<v Speaker 1>There is a new set of rules in this much

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<v Speaker 1>lower rate environment. And the number one question I think

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<v Speaker 1>for investors in one tom is will rising rates be

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<v Speaker 1>good or bad for stocks? And I know you talk

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<v Speaker 1>about it a lot on the show, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>think of things like coffee, egg, yolks, red wine, all

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<v Speaker 1>these things you don't really know if they're good or

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<v Speaker 1>bad for you, And it's the same with rising rates.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't really know if they're good or bad for stocks. Uh?

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<v Speaker 1>Did it? A discount model will tell you that if

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<v Speaker 1>the discount rate goes up, valuations go down. Also, you

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<v Speaker 1>could think of higher expected returns on bonds. I know

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<v Speaker 1>right now rates are coming down in Europe and we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna see them come down in the US. But we

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<v Speaker 1>are in the rising rates environment in this recovery phase,

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<v Speaker 1>So the expected return on bonds goes up. It makes

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<v Speaker 1>bonds more attractive than stocks. But here's the rob and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of your guests have mentioned this before. The

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<v Speaker 1>FED is only comfortable rising raising rates when they expect

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<v Speaker 1>positive growth, and positive growth surprises are good for stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>Tom Which just did an analysis that shows if you

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<v Speaker 1>go back thirty years and you look at all rolling

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<v Speaker 1>twelve month periods, you can find seventy two twelve month

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<v Speaker 1>periods during which the US tenure yield was up by

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<v Speaker 1>fifty basis points or more. What do you think is

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<v Speaker 1>the average return from the SMP five hundred over those

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen periods of rising rates. It's staggering seventeen percent, and

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<v Speaker 1>the hit rate, the percentage of time stocks made money,

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<v Speaker 1>is a hundred percent. So it's not clear whether rising

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<v Speaker 1>rates are good or bad for the market. It is

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<v Speaker 1>the number one question for investors in one It is

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<v Speaker 1>in a sense a new set of rules because of

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<v Speaker 1>the low level we're starting with and the trillion and stimulus. Ultimately,

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<v Speaker 1>right now we're along the recovery trade. Like a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of your guests, I know Sebastiy of the keyword there

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<v Speaker 1>is recovery. And when we ask ourselves the real rates,

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<v Speaker 1>high real rates good for the equity market, we also

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<v Speaker 1>have to answer the question where are we in the cycle.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're in the recovery stage and you'll start to

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<v Speaker 1>pick up. Isn't that typically a good thing for stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>It is a good thing to stocks because you get

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<v Speaker 1>positive growth shocks typically again you and you also possibly

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<v Speaker 1>get positive earning surprises. The earnings forecast for the year

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<v Speaker 1>are pretty high twent depending on which parts of the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market you're looking at, So the bar is high.

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<v Speaker 1>But yes, rising rates can coexist. You know, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily need to say they're good for stocks, but they

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<v Speaker 1>can coexist with very positive stock returns. And let's not

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<v Speaker 1>forget I know you were just talking about the Denmark

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<v Speaker 1>news and issues of the vaccines in Europe. Overall, the

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<v Speaker 1>news on the vact scenes have been phenomenal. And we

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<v Speaker 1>tracked this probability from a group called the super Forecasters,

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<v Speaker 1>and they have a probability that you'll you'll have enough

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<v Speaker 1>DoLS is to inoculate million people by July. That probability

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<v Speaker 1>prior to Fiser in November was even dip as recently

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<v Speaker 1>as January to below. Right now, it's so we tend

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<v Speaker 1>it's human nature to focus on the negative side of

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<v Speaker 1>the news, but the vaccine developments have just been phenomenal.

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<v Speaker 1>It's our base case that we're in a race between

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines and new strains. It's our base case that vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>will win that race. Vaccines may win that race in

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<v Speaker 1>certain regions faster than others. And that's what we've seen,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've been talking about it a lot with the

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<v Speaker 1>US versus the European Union. How much of a boost

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.800
<v Speaker 1>do US fixed income markets get from very easy and

0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 1>easier ECP policies. I think you see the market movements

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.599
<v Speaker 1>this morning, they respond to it, but ultimately there's a

0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.880
<v Speaker 1>little bit of noise here in there. Right. The US

0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:09.679
<v Speaker 1>bond market will be driven by big macro forces, the

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:14.199
<v Speaker 1>forces of the recovery, the stimulus, the fiscal measures, and

0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>there will be a lot more driven by what will

0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.080
<v Speaker 1>hear from the Fed over the next few weeks, and

0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.840
<v Speaker 1>that will be uh fairly dubbish. So you'll still see

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.720
<v Speaker 1>because of the recovery, rising rates, But I don't expect

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:34.280
<v Speaker 1>rising rates to impact to negatively impact risk gasset returns.

0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:37.480
<v Speaker 1>It's so on the margin, Lisa, it's it's it's wish

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:41.440
<v Speaker 1>Sebastian gonna see a Sebastian past that price. Multi assets

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:49.680
<v Speaker 1>strategist Jason Farley of Johns Hoppinin scheduled to be with

0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 1>us here on a pandemic update, the good news of

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 1>America and Dr Farley and the rest of us shocked

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 1>by what we see out of Denmark and Hester Zenica.

0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 1>What we see how to the EU on blood clots.

0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:04.800
<v Speaker 1>Jason Farley with a wonderful research of j h U

0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 1>and I really go to Robert Brosky and hematology as well.

0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 1>Give us a summary of the risk right now in

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:16.880
<v Speaker 1>America to the thrombosis, the embolism risks that we see

0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>out of Denmark. Sure well, good morning. Uh. We've known

0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 1>that COVID nineteen causes a state of hypercoagulability or blood

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 1>clots as you say, uh, since the beginning of the epidemic.

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.840
<v Speaker 1>We've talked about things many, many types of things early

0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 1>am I, including three bovascular accidents in patients or stroke

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:42.720
<v Speaker 1>in patients with COVID nineteen. We've seen covid toe, which

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:47.400
<v Speaker 1>is little blood clots that block the blood flow to

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 1>the vasculature. So we we know that this causes a

0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:56.880
<v Speaker 1>state of the body's response leading to lots of blood

0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 1>clot formation. UM. This has caused magnificant disease and the

0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 1>elderly particularly and those with coexisting comorbidities. In the United

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 1>States as well. We look and I mentioned Francis Collins

0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.040
<v Speaker 1>of n i H earlier with the key phrase even

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>in younger people. What is the risk of these hematology

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.760
<v Speaker 1>events to younger people if they get COVID, which they

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>heal from easily, but nevertheless they've got blood clot risk

0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 1>well certainly so anything that up the body's response to infection,

0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:37.960
<v Speaker 1>particularly the inflammatory responses, can trigger the clotting cascade. And

0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.680
<v Speaker 1>we do see it lower risk in younger individuals with

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:46.000
<v Speaker 1>fewer comorbidities, and that risk rises as a boath with

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 1>age as well as underlying disease state. So what we

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 1>know is that we have seen uh cases of blood

0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:57.400
<v Speaker 1>clots in younger individuals. Although they are they remain relatively rare.

0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:00.400
<v Speaker 1>Um Professor Queen talk about the vaccine role and just

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 1>add to this conversation, Europe has a problem right now

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:05.320
<v Speaker 1>on the consonant and I don't want to get into

0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 1>the analysis of what has happened in Denmark, but the

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:10.720
<v Speaker 1>outcome is pretty clear. The consequence to clear for the consonant,

0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:12.960
<v Speaker 1>there is an issue with vaccine acceptance now and trust

0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.560
<v Speaker 1>in some of these vaccines. Professor, have you seen us

0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 1>bump up against that issue yet in America? Sure so.

0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:24.640
<v Speaker 1>Vaccine hesitancy or or problems with vaccine acceptance has has

0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.880
<v Speaker 1>been a problem since the beginning of the pandemic. But

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 1>we've seen that muted, however, because of lack of vaccine supply.

0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 1>So importantly right now queues are really long for COVID

0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:41.240
<v Speaker 1>nineteen vaccine and people can't find a vaccine even when

0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:46.200
<v Speaker 1>they qualify. Uh, So importantly, we've seen this response of

0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.960
<v Speaker 1>people not wanting the vaccine, or people hesitant to get

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.640
<v Speaker 1>the vaccine or a wait and see approach has been

0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.800
<v Speaker 1>muted because of the supply issue. And Professor, I think

0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 1>this rises the next question, which is when do we

0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.880
<v Speaker 1>start to bump up against the acceptance issue, and when

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.040
<v Speaker 1>that force is to actually get rid of the age

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.040
<v Speaker 1>caps on who and caount who can and who can't

0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:06.800
<v Speaker 1>have the vaccine and just make it available to everyone.

0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:08.199
<v Speaker 1>Do you think we're close to that point or not

0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:12.520
<v Speaker 1>until Well, certainly this has been a state by state

0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.680
<v Speaker 1>response and who the categories of are qualified to vaccinate

0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 1>in the United States, and and quite Frankly, there are

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.520
<v Speaker 1>many individuals who are still in the wings waiting, who

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:28.160
<v Speaker 1>are the waiting and hopeful to receive the vaccine. So

0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.640
<v Speaker 1>removing age restrictions I think needs to bump up against

0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.960
<v Speaker 1>us pushing into that eight plus percent of those sixty

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.680
<v Speaker 1>five years of age and older, and in the United

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 1>States we're sitting around sixty percent of those in that category.

0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.520
<v Speaker 1>So I think that we need to continue to focus

0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.360
<v Speaker 1>on our age categories for the for the short run,

0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>probably in the March we getting of April, depending on

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>the number of shots that we get out into arms,

0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:55.720
<v Speaker 1>but then begin to think about the expansion of those

0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:59.320
<v Speaker 1>categories and getting the next round of people with shots

0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:01.800
<v Speaker 1>in their arms. And Jason. In the meantime, John's talked

0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:03.600
<v Speaker 1>about this a lot, the idea that a number of

0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 1>governors are taking matters into their own hands. As you said,

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.239
<v Speaker 1>it's state by state, and they're reopening perhaps earlier than

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>health officials would recommend. What do you say to people

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.480
<v Speaker 1>who pushed back against health officials assertions and say there

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.080
<v Speaker 1>hasn't been enough done to recognize the depression, the suicides,

0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.760
<v Speaker 1>the uh, the the violence that you have seen break

0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:26.240
<v Speaker 1>out that has had real medical impact that has stemmed

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:30.880
<v Speaker 1>from some of the shutdowns that continue to be ongoing. Well, certainly,

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:33.680
<v Speaker 1>and as a nurse, you know, we're trained to really

0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:37.920
<v Speaker 1>think about the consequences of disease like the ones you're mentioning,

0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.879
<v Speaker 1>so that the fallout of disease, if you will, I

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:44.520
<v Speaker 1>would also add to that that that the consequences of

0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:48.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen remain real, and we are seeing lots of

0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:53.240
<v Speaker 1>positive numbers with increased vaccination, increased amounts of herd immunity,

0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:55.679
<v Speaker 1>if you will, estimates coming out this morning from the

0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.760
<v Speaker 1>New York Times of forty in the Carls the United States.

0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:02.960
<v Speaker 1>That's all good news. We also are also seeing lots

0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:05.920
<v Speaker 1>of mental health concerns, and so there's a balancing act.

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:08.959
<v Speaker 1>But I would say to them that the CDC just

0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:11.680
<v Speaker 1>came out with some amazing data on a county by

0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:15.560
<v Speaker 1>county level as of earlier this week, demonstrating that the

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 1>earlier you roll back mask, the sooner you repopulate restaurants,

0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>the more likely you are to see a greater number

0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.920
<v Speaker 1>of cases research and so we have to further push

0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:28.440
<v Speaker 1>her immunity. We have to get more shots in arms

0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 1>before we begin making this not because we don't understand

0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.800
<v Speaker 1>and recognize the consequences of the state of these diseases,

0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:37.960
<v Speaker 1>but most importantly, we have to get ahead of the variants. Professor,

0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:39.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to see you as always. Jason Founding That

0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Jones Helkins nursing Professor on reopening and the risk of

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:48.560
<v Speaker 1>increasing infections. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.

0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:51.679
<v Speaker 1>Join us live week days from seven to ten am

0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:56.200
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0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.920
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0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:05.040
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0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:09.880
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0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:13.240
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0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:15.199
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg