WEBVTT - TechStuff Predicts 2014 0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:07.560 Get in text with technology with text Stuff from half Stuff. 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.200 Happy New Year, everyone, and welcome to tex Stuff. I 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:18.400 am Jonathan Strickland and I'm Lauren. And you know, it's 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:21.079 that time that we like to put off as long 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:23.919 as we possibly can, where tech Stuff puts on its 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:28.440 prognosticator hat, stairs into the future and says, what's gonna 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:33.199 happen y'all? Now before we even start to reveal some 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:35.760 of the predictions we have made for the next year 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:38.880 a couple of different things. Instead of our usual approach 0:00:38.920 --> 0:00:41.680 where we just alternate back and forth, but we've actually 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:45.560 kind of divided up our predictions into different categories. We 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.840 talked about them beforehand a little bit enough to see 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.440 where we had overlap and just to organize this so 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:53.479 that it doesn't end up being, oh, you know, when 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.480 you made that prediction about such and such, I've got 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.640 a prediction. You know, we wanted it to be nice 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:01.360 and clean and also keeping line that we are recording 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:05.720 this particular episode on December twelve, two thirteen, so we're 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:09.000 coming to you from the past, Yes, from the incredible past. 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:12.360 There is a possibility example, an asteroid in the latter 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:18.240 half of December fell on Facebook, Facebook headquarters then and 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:21.319 we make a prediction about Facebook that obviously could not 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:24.120 come true because of those facts. Uh, that's why it 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.800 hasn't happened to us yet. Yes, the same sort of thing, 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.720 like there's um specifically, there's a bit about Microsoft and 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:34.119 it's CEO, which that answered that question. May be resolved 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:36.240 before we go into the new year. It would surprise me, 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.840 but it might not, like it won't. But um, so 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:44.720 my first prediction is about Facebook. What Okay, so what 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:49.040 is your prediction. My prediction is that is that will 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:53.440 be the year that Facebook goes into serious decline. Wow. 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:57.920 That's that's big. That's a big prediction. I I know 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.240 that it's the ruler. It is a bold prediction, um. 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:02.040 And I know that it is very much right now 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:06.000 the ruler of the social media platform roost um as 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.799 of this podcast. As of September anyway, Um, they had 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:15.440 seven seven million daily active users on average and uh 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:20.200 one point one nine billion monthly active users. And okay, 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:23.240 so that's a bunch of people, y'all. I understand that. UM. 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.080 But you know, and I'm not saying that there's going 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:27.520 to be a mass exodus. I'm not going to say 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:30.840 that like, by the end there'll be three people on 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:34.119 Facebook and one of the will be your mom. Right. 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:36.959 But um, you know, I think that I think the 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.880 people are going to stay on Facebook as a personal identifier, 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:41.760 Like I think that right now, it is really the 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.799 social network that is used by I mean, obviously is 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:49.360 used by most human people as a kind of base present. 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:51.400 But um, but I think that people are going to 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:56.040 start moving to other platforms, uh Tumbler, Twitter, I'm not sure. Um, 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:59.760 but you know, even even Facebook themselves. During a third 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:04.639 to earnings call, chief financial officer David A. Ebersman acknowledged 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.600 that Facebook had been seeing a decrease in daily users, 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:12.120 and especially Americans around the thirteen to fourteen years of 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:14.200 age kind of brains. So it may be that we're 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:17.360 talking about a shift because as the demographic gets older, 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.560 you don't see an influx of new users, and the 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:21.799 people who start to go away aren't being replaced by 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:24.360 by new folks, right right, And you know, like people 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.360 aren't deleting accounts yet, but they are checking the site 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:31.000 less often. And meanwhile, Twitter's audience is starting to skew 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.840 younger than the rest of the entire Internet. And see 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:36.040 you know, there's certain things I think that really feed 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:39.160 into this. I mean, there there there's more and more 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.720 information that comes out that makes it plain to the 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:46.920 average user what Facebook, you know, why? Why how Facebook 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:48.800 makes their money? I mean, the fact is that the 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:52.280 users are actually the product, right, That's what Facebook is 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:56.320 selling and serving advertising to to those users. And how 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.320 it does. Yeah, and they you know, doing things like 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:02.960 having AutoPlay videos happen in the news feed, including possibly 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:07.080 AutoPlay ads. That's not necessarily a feature that a lot 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.200 of users are going to like. And then you know, 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.560 on the on the corporate side, anyone who's or just 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.920 on the organizational side, anyone who has a Facebook page 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:18.080 as and not not their own personal page, but a 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:21.719 page for something a brand or a band or whatever. Um, 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:24.880 they are discovering this getting harder and harder to hit 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:28.360 their reach. Like they might have thousands of fans who 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:31.680 are following them, but when they post a tiny percentage 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:34.200 of those people are seeing whatever those posts are, uns 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:37.520 they pay money to pay it out to more to 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.039 more users. Yeah and um, and all of this I 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:45.400 think is making making Facebook seem more more corporate and 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:49.279 less like a like an innovative play space to those 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:53.640 really critical younger users. Right, So unless something major changes 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:59.680 that you see Facebook having at least uh a market decline, 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:02.080 some thing that we could look at and say, all right, here, 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:05.520 here are some quantifiable numbers that show that it's it's 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:07.919 didn't have a great year. I think it's going to 0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:10.000 have a poor year. I I do not. I cannot 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:13.080 in good conscience predicted that, um that either Tumbler or 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:17.080 Twitter or snapchatter, etcetera going to overtake Facebook in terms 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.760 of user numbers. But um, but I think that any 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:24.080 any one at least some probably Twitter, okay probably Twitter 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:29.440 will will seem more daily action than Facebook will. Gotcha. Well, 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:34.120 along those same story of lines, my social media prediction 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:37.640 is that we're going to see more of the types 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:41.919 of social media platforms that allow you to post things 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:45.240 for just a specific amount of time and then after 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:49.560 that time it's gone. So Snapchat mission impossible. Message that Yeah, 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:53.480 within thirty seconds of message self destructs. Yeah, because Snapchat. 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:56.080 I don't know if you've ever seen it or used it. 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:59.560 I actually haven't, which means that I'm really old and uncool. Right. 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:02.680 It all depends on the kind of friends you have. 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:05.000 But what's your experience of Snapchat is going to be. 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:06.720 But the idea being that you know, you can take 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:09.359 a picture and share it with your group of friends 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:13.799 on Snapchat, and it only exists for a set number 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:16.320 of seconds, and you can determine how long it exists, 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:19.840 and after that it deletes itself and the person cannot 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.000 go and look at it again. And uh So in 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:25.240 that case, it may be that we're going to see 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:30.960 more and more of these sorts of social media um platforms, partly, 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:33.799 I think because we've got some people who are starting 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:37.440 to finally care about privacy, especially in light of things 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:40.760 like the n Essay story from those fifteen, which I 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:44.400 know is going to keep on going. So I predict 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:46.880 that by the end often we're going to see other 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:50.000 several other social media platforms that have the sort of 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:53.080 temporary presence where you can post something and then not 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.600 worry about it haunting you later because it's gonna go 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:59.120 away um And so we should have a few of 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:00.920 those by the end of twenty four. Team And in 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:03.600 defense of this, one of one of the news items 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:05.360 that has happened over the past couple of months, I'm 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:08.800 only white who was the former um, Facebook director of 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:13.520 Business Operations with with Instagram. UM Instagram within Facebook, UM 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:19.040 left to become the CEO of Snapchat Snapchat, so that 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:21.920 you know, as as of the last round of investment, 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.360 they had raised some like seventy million dollars. And yeah, 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:29.320 so there's definitely interest there. And Snapchat skews younger, right, 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.560 so uh in the same sort of thing, like I 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:34.400 think Instagram is another one of those things that had 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:37.080 you know, it's skewed younger too, and then Facebook was like, 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:38.760 all right, let's let's move in on that. And then 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:42.960 people are like, oh, you got Facebook on my Instagram. Yeah, 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.560 all right, so let's move on. We have a different 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:48.720 category you want to talk about now, hardware. Yeah. I 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:53.160 have a prediction that UM that devices that the rule 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:57.680 of device sales in is going to be price over quality. 0:07:57.960 --> 0:07:59.960 So something that's less expensive is going to be more 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:04.000 popular than something that is by some measure made better, 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:07.680 right and UM. And furthermore that UM that that in 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:11.360 this trend, Apple is going to lose market share to 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:15.320 to Android. UM. And you know, I mean, okay, so 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:17.240 so I think that I think the mobile devices are 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.720 going to be really big. That's not really a prediction 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.040 as much as like duh um, because everyone wants it 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:26.240 portable and plans are still expensive. And so I think 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.640 that that the entry price of the device itself is 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:32.040 really going to be become the divider among the winners 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:35.800 and losers here UM, and that you know, the push 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:38.560 is going to be for creators to to be streamlining 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:44.360 their components UM rather than really innovating new technology, and 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.280 and that that kind of sucks for everyone. However, I 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:49.439 do think it's going to be awesome for software because 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.280 more people are going to need to be creating, UM, 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:55.760 creating programs that make more efficient use of what they 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:57.840 have to work with. And you know, if you if 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:00.160 you look at what how Apple has behaved in the 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:04.839 last quarter of that's not a big you know, that's 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:06.679 not a big jump from that. You know, you had 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:10.360 Apple for the first time offering a lower cost version 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.240 of the iPhone at the same time as an updated version, 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:15.840 you know, out of the gate, not not discounting an 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:18.720 older model, but rather coming out with a new lower 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:22.120 price model. UM. So you know, it may very well 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:26.440 be that they're they're seeing something similar in the future. Yeah, yeah, 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:28.520 I think that they think that they got scared this year, 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:30.800 they um you know, they dropped from almost of the 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:34.240 market share in late back down to um more like 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.280 which was their end of year numbers, and so that's 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:40.600 you know, yeah, so they're they're kind of hovering around 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:43.000 the same spot and occasionally seeing a little boost every 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:46.120 now and then. So my prediction was that, you know, 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:48.400 I bet I'm going to see a whole bunch of 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:51.880 smart TVs at c e S when you guys who 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:53.480 are listening to this, I'll be at c e S 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:57.640 next week and um from when we're recording this, it 0:09:57.640 --> 0:09:59.840 will be several weeks either way. My feet are all 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:03.679 a hurting in anticipation. But at any rate, uh, smart 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:05.800 TVs or something, I expect I'll see a lot of 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.440 We've already seen examples of the plenty of them in 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.040 the past, but we're gonna see it more and more 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:13.520 of those where the smart television stuff is incorporated directly 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:16.800 into the TVs. I still don't think it's going to 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.520 really take off, partly because you know, there's not like 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:23.160 a unified experience out there. Obviously, any particular vendor is 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.600 going to have their own kind of application software, their 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.160 own user interface, and that's going to cause things to 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:31.440 slow down. It's not gonna be a fast adoption. I 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.000 just don't think, I mean, unless someone has come up 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:38.080 with a truly innovative approach, I don't think it's going 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:40.120 to be enough to start selling lots of TV sets. 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.040 I think that things like consoles are going to hold 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:45.720 that still. You know Xbox one for example. Yeah, yeah, 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:48.800 there's way too many smart boxes or or media consoles 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:50.400 that can do this kind of thing. And TVs are 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:53.840 such a big purchase um for for for most people 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:55.319 to to make right now, you know, the same way 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.360 that I think that price is going to drive uh 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:01.280 mobile cells. Yeah, sales, it's going to be kind of 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.200 the same thing. But I'm wondering if such a big 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:06.760 ticket unitasker is ever going to take off honestly, unless 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:11.400 companies stop making non smart TVs, right if if Yeah, 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:13.800 that would be one way forcing everyone to move to it. 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:16.800 Another way is if you open up your your user 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.760 interface enough so that lots of different types of devices 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.440 can interact with it. Because when you restrict it, you know, 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:24.880 you forced someone to go into one ecosystem. That's not 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.240 great for the consumer. So my prediction ultimately is that 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.360 by the end of the year, smart TVs on the 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:33.120 consumer market will not be a huge deal. Like, it 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:35.520 won't be It won't be an industry that takes off 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:39.559 like tablets did. Um, and I think it's if they 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:43.200 are going to take off, it won't be okay. Uh. 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:48.080 My next hardware related uh prediction is that and and 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:49.880 actually this is one that both of us had really 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:52.160 had to be to be entirely fair, um, is that 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.480 fitness trackers are going to really take off. I mean 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:57.559 not that they not that they have not taken off already, 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:00.959 but that, um, that the kind of people who are 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.880 not the early adopters of technology, like like like your 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:05.520 grandma is going to have one of these. Yeah, the 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.480 proliferation of these is going to be insane in fourteen 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.720 is essentially what the prediction is. I agree with that. 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:13.760 I actually went further and saying that it would be 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.920 wearable computing in general, although I think out of the 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:20.280 entire wearable computing industry, the fitness trackers are going to 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:22.520 be the one that take the lead. They They've to me, 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.240 the fitness trackers have done this better than the other 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.760 types of wearable computing, and by that I mean specifically 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:30.920 smart watches, I mean, and also, fitness trackers have the 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.640 benefit of UM of being able to specialize, whereas I 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:36.959 think that smart watches are trying to do a lot 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:39.400 of things, especially for the processor size that they have 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.840 to work with UM. And and also I mean, you 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:43.720 know you can with with a with a fitness tracker, 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.480 you can really get get it down to to a 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:49.920 size that it can wear and look like jewelry, which 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.360 is what more people out there. I mean, I mean, 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.440 as much as I do love the the kind of 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:57.560 quirky eighties design aesthetic of the pebble, that's not something 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:01.000 that everybody wants to wear. It's not the sleekest of profiles. 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.280 So yeah, I understand, I agree, And so I think 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.840 I think we are going to see a big jump 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.360 I think wearable computers, whereas I think smart TVs are 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:12.480 not going to be the tablet of I think wearable 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:16.360 computers are going to be the tablet often. I'm hoping 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:18.560 that someone is able to make a smart watch that 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:23.080 really resonates with the general market and not just you know, 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.720 geeky tech guys like me. I would love to see 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:28.480 that happen. I don't know if it's going to happen, 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.200 But I am pretty confident that wearable computers in general 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.400 are gonna be crazy popular. Yeah, and I don't think 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:37.920 it's um. Tim Bahran for PC mag was predicting that 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.600 smart watches are going to die in and I think 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.920 that that's way overly pessimistic. Yeah, I mean, I understand 0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:45.800 where that comes from, in the sense that a lot 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.400 of the smart watches that have come out so far 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:51.320 just haven't really captured imagination. But every time, you know, 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:53.720 I mean, I've still seen ads where they have the 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.840 Dick Tracy wrist watch in the ad, and I'm thinking, like, 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.160 this is an idea that isn't gonna die. As soon 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.360 as someone figures out how to really tap into it, 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:05.800 that market takes off. It's just that I don't think 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:10.200 anyone's created the implementation where everybody wants one. We haven't 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:14.160 found the iPhone right exactly, That's exactly it. Um. So 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.720 my next prediction is one that I had for twenty 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:21.280 thirteen that I'm I'm centually saying dido on, which is, 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:25.440 remember remember when I predicted that in NFC technology wasn't 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:28.040 really going to go anywhere in the United States? Did over. 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:32.080 I don't think it's gonna happen. Uh. The technology itself 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.760 is fine, It's just that I don't think anyone is 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.760 ready to adopt it. It's not in enough handsets for 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:41.040 it to be have a penetration level where vendors are 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.120 going to spend the money to upgrade to get NFC 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:46.720 technology into theirs. You know, you're gonna see it in places, 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:50.080 but not it's not gonna be widespread. And Uh. Also, 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:54.200 I think it's possible that we never see NFC takeoff 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.240 in the United States and instead have to wait for 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.880 some other technology that essentially does the similar thing but 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.000 through a different implementation. So in other words, like NFC 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:04.960 is just one of those things that could have worked 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.040 had we invested the money in it, but we just 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.240 never did, and then eventually some other technology overtook it, 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.120 and that's what we went with. That's what I'm not 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:15.400 saying that we're going to get that technology inteen. I 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.440 just don't see NFC going anywhere. Sure, no, I agree, 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:20.720 and that is basically all that I have. You you 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.720 just said everything that I have to say about it. Um. 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.040 So my next hardware prediction a lot of these are hardware, UM, 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:31.320 is that the the PC is going to continue its decline. Um, 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:36.000 you know, as as tablets get get cheaper and more capable, Um, 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.160 the that that that drop off And by PC I 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:42.760 mean PC and laptop this time. Actually, UM, it's just 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:44.920 just going to continue to decrease. You know, people are 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.080 going to be holding on to to their heavy duty 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.800 tech like that for longer in an attempt to save 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:52.560 a little bit more money and turning to some of 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:56.120 these incredibly cheap mobile devices in order to satisfy some 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:59.240 of their new gadget cravings. I completely agree. In fact, 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.160 there's a little subnote in our notes where it's almost 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:05.800 the same wording, where I'm like, yeah, PC sales are 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:10.160 going to continue to decline in UH, that doesn't necessarily 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.520 mean that every UH computer manufacturer is going to see 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:17.560 a decline. It's possible that Apple might actually do fairly well. 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:20.359 And the reason why I say that is that, UH, 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:23.240 if I'm in a position where I want to buy 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:27.200 I'm going to invest in a new computer, then I'm 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:29.440 probably going to try and go for something that's gonna 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:34.160 that I perceived to be a truly a powerful, high 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:38.360 quality computer. And whether whether you agree that Apple products 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.600 are that high quality that's the public perception, right or 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:43.800 you know, at least something comparable. And I think that 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.360 Apple is is a little bit more um user friendly 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.080 than like, I don't know, like like alien ware or 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.920 something like. Well, I certainly have like that aesthetic is 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:55.720 really appealing. It's it's impossible to deny how appealing that 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.560 their design aesthetic, as Johnny ives is a genius and 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.960 so um, you know, and and again like guys, I'm 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.560 not an Apple fanboy. So before all the people out 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:07.320 there who want to call me an Apple fan boy 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.440 right in remember this is the same guy who back 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:14.159 in the day was lambasted on iTunes for having a 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:18.240 quote anti mac bias. In the quote he still makes 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.879 fun of me for having an iPhone. Sometimes I'm not 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:24.760 fun of my wife too, so but but yeah, it's this. 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:26.280 This is backed up by a little bit number. The 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:28.320 I d C is predicting a six percent to climb 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:30.560 in PC sales next year, which is better than this 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.639 year's ten percent to climb in piece of sales. So 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:34.960 it's gonna be declining, but not as quickly. Yeah, so 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.800 that's good news. Um, But they're also predicting the worldwide 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.360 tablet sales will grow by eighteen percent, in smartphones by 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.800 a twelve percent. Right. I don't think that two for 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.600 one devices are going to save laptops either. There are 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:49.800 several that we've seen in the past where it's a 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.399 tablet that can convert to a laptop or vice versa. 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.119 I don't necessarily think that those are going to be 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.960 a huge hit, mostly because their price point tends to 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:00.159 be higher than what a tablet on its own would be. 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.679 And going back to your price versus quality type argument, 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.760 even if you were to demonstrably prove that the two 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:09.800 and one is a better quality machine, I think a 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:11.239 lot of people will be like, yeah, I just don't need, 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:14.080 don't care. Yeah. Um and and actually this this wasn't 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.479 recorded in the notes that we shared earlier, but if 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:19.480 I can make a very bold related prediction to all 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:21.840 of this, um, I think that Windows is going to 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:26.880 get shunted out of the tablet market. I cannot imagine 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:31.000 what they could possibly do to attract enough developers. Yeah, 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.800 I mean, at this point, they would have to have 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:37.560 a lot of other manufacturers buy into the Windows eight 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:41.720 operating system. Because the surface just hasn't done it. The 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:46.320 surface has not really performed very well in the market 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:49.200 compared to other tablets. And it's not that, you know, 0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:52.280 the surface is a bad product, it just hasn't caught on. Yeah. 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:54.480 Uh you know, I think the Windows eight is part 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:56.720 of that problem. But I'll talk more about that in 0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:00.640 a minute. So going on to another where this might 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:03.160 sound a little weird for it to be a hardware thing, 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:05.000 but it kind of fits in. We didn't have a 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.800 category that fit in better, so we put it in here. Uh. 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:10.480 I said that we're going to see a lot more 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:15.320 autonomous car technology incorporated into the models of cars that 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:17.720 are coming out this year. We're gonna see a lot 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:21.520 more of that, things like collision detection, parking assistance, that 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:25.600 sort of stuff, lane assistance, but we will not see 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:29.679 a fully autonomous car on the consumer market. Absolutely not. 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.359 Now I completely agree with this one. Everyone's talking like 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:35.720 ten years for a completely autonomous car and um and 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.119 you know, even though we've already got cool stuff like 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:41.000 like Mercedes has a steering assist which uses a radar 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:44.440 to detect the speed of traffic around you, and stereoscopic 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:47.199 cameras mounted in front of the windshields were mirror that 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.480 monitor your position within a lane. Um, and and we'll 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:52.320 kind of beep angrily at you if you if you 0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:53.680 move out of it. I mean that that kind of 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.920 stuff is is amazing and really cool and helps with 0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:59.280 with safety standards and all of that is beautiful. But 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:02.159 and I do think that that kind of like you 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:06.000 were saying, yeah, line is going to see incorporation of 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:07.600 a lot more of those kind of things, and a 0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:12.200 lot more less than Mercedes Class kind of sure. Yeah, 0:20:12.280 --> 0:20:14.680 I mean, like you know, Toyota was working on all 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.640 this stuff where it be a collision detection for pedestrians, 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:19.879 like what the pedestrian is crossing the street that the 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:22.800 car itself could detect and even slam on the brakes 0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:27.040 without you having having even noticed yet. So that sort 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.720 of thing. I can see that kind of stuff being incorporated. Again, 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:33.400 not fully autonomous car, but a lot of these these 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.560 various pieces that are necessary for an autonomous car to 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:41.159 work will be incorporated into more and more cars. Um 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.440 Our next note is gaming hardware, um the PS four 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:47.600 versus the Xbox One. And I'm sorry, we you you're 0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:50.600 just not even in this equation right now, um, But 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:52.960 you know, it's it's really hard to make a prediction 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.560 on this one because Microsoft is being squirrely about their 0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:58.080