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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: here with my good buddy oh mcbrair. The PGA Tours

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Speaker 1: California Swing continues this week with the AT and T

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Speaker 1: Pebble Beach Pro Am. This is an elevated event, so

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Speaker 1: we will be treated as some of the best players

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Speaker 1: in the world playing one of the most iconic courses

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Speaker 1: in the United States. On today's show, we will start

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Speaker 1: with a quick recap of the Farmers Insurance Open, then

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Speaker 1: we'll give you a full betting preview of the AT

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Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Am. We'll share our early

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Speaker 1: betting cards with you, and then we'll make our one

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Speaker 1: and done picks at the end of the show. Bo

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Speaker 1: When they played the US Open at Tory Pines in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, John Rahm won with the score of

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Speaker 1: six under par. This past week at Tory Pines, Harris

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Speaker 1: English won with the score of eight under par, and

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Speaker 1: one of those rounds was played on the easier Tory

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Speaker 1: Pines North Course. Although not playing particularly easy in the

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Speaker 1: second round and really nothing was easy for three of

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Speaker 1: the four rounds at the Farmers Insurance Open, we had

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Speaker 1: much windier weather in La Jolla, California than we're used to.

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Speaker 1: We even had a win delay during the second round.

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Speaker 1: The greens at Tory Pines were firm and hard to hold.

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Speaker 1: How difficult was Tory Pines well. Ludwig Oberg, one of

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Speaker 1: the best young players in the world, opened with a

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Speaker 1: nine under par sixty three on the North course to

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Speaker 1: grab the tournament lead after one round. Oberg finished three

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Speaker 1: over par for the tournament. Now, in fairness, he did

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Speaker 1: get sick during the tournament and clearly wasn't himself the

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Speaker 1: last two rounds, but things were tough out there. Harris

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Speaker 1: English played some boring golf in the final round. He

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Speaker 1: parted his last twelve holes, shooting a final round seventy

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Speaker 1: three to win by a stroke over Sam Stevens, who

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Speaker 1: made a valiant charge in the final round with a

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Speaker 1: sixty eight, the lowest score of the day. But Stevens

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Speaker 1: made a critical mistake on the seventy second hole. He

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Speaker 1: dumped his second shot on the par five eighteenth into

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Speaker 1: the pond in front of the green. A bird he

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Speaker 1: would have got him into a playoff, but he had

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Speaker 1: to settle for a par. This was the fifth PGA

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Speaker 1: tour win for English, who went off at either one

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Speaker 1: hundred to one or one hundred and ten to one,

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Speaker 1: depending on which book you were looking at. He's a

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Speaker 1: grinder and Harris English scrambled his rear end off for

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Speaker 1: a hard earned victory. Bow. What did you think of

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Speaker 1: this year's bare knuckles version of the Farmer's Insurance Open.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely considered scrambling in my model. Unfortunately, I

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Speaker 2: didn't consider scrambling in ridiculous conditions which took everything down

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Speaker 2: to the bare knuckles. Like you said, a couple of

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Speaker 2: high risers were there. We're going to see a lot

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Speaker 2: more Aldrich pot Geater in the future. The bomber out

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Speaker 2: of South Africa. There's a lot of great young players

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Speaker 2: in that field. Despite a flu going around in SoCal

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Speaker 2: that knocked out half of the great field that we

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Speaker 2: were expecting. Everybody got the flu. Ludwig is the only

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Speaker 2: one that really hung in there and gutted it out

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Speaker 2: quite literally, and he played terribly, but at least he finished.

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Speaker 2: As far as Harris English, he's a grinder and that's

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Speaker 2: about all he can say. The only stats that he

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Speaker 2: actually was in the top twenty in my model in

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Speaker 2: was scrambling and being able to be just not make bogies.

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Speaker 2: So that was the kind of the calling card of

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Speaker 2: this year's Farmer's Insurance Open was Harris English goes from

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Speaker 2: one hundred and one and one hundred and fortieth in

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Speaker 2: my model to his fourth PGA Tour victory in his

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Speaker 2: first since twenty nineteen, I think twenty twenty. Yeah, he

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Speaker 2: hasn't won since COVID year. It's for good reason. He's

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Speaker 2: played pretty terribly most of the last four years, and

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Speaker 2: it was good to see him get one. But it

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Speaker 2: was so out of left field. I commend the ones

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Speaker 2: that somehow had a betting slip with his name on it,

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Speaker 2: because I have no idea where they got that information.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, worth remembering. I know he said in the interview

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Speaker 1: immediately after the round that he likes tough conditions and

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Speaker 1: likes it where it's not a birdie fast and you

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Speaker 1: have to grind it out. But again, as you said, Bow,

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Speaker 1: even knowing that it was maybe going to be breezy

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Speaker 1: the last couple of days, I don't think we had

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Speaker 1: any indication that Harrison Harris English now was going to

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Speaker 1: put together four rounds like this, so but good on him.

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Speaker 1: Now we will get to this week's event in a moment.

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Speaker 2: But first download the free Betting Pros app for iOS

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Speaker 1: And now we head up the California Coast for the

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Speaker 1: AT and T Pebble Beach Pro Am. As mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 1: this is an elevated event, a signature event, which means

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Speaker 1: a smaller field of eighty players and no COT. Used

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Speaker 1: to be a three course rotation for the first three

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Speaker 1: rounds of this event, but the PGA Tours Powers that

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Speaker 1: Be wisely removed Monterey Peninsula Country Club from the rotation.

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Speaker 1: Now everyone will rotate between Pebble Beach and spy Glass

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Speaker 1: Hill for the first two rounds, with everyone playing Pebble

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Speaker 1: the last two rounds. Spyglass Hill, a short course by

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour standards at the par seventy two, measuring seven

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Speaker 1: forty one yards. But it's not an easy course like

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Speaker 1: Pebble Beach, Spyglass has some small, hard to hold, hard

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Speaker 1: to hit greens. Bo. I wish we got to see

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Speaker 1: more of Spyglass during the tournament. We get some coverage

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Speaker 1: on television of spy Glass, but not as much as

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Speaker 1: we should. The first five holes just beautiful. They have

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Speaker 1: an ocean view. The first hole is a very cool

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Speaker 1: par five downhill, The third and fifth holes are gorgeous

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Speaker 1: par threes with the ocean as a backdrop, and the

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Speaker 1: fourth hole is a gem.

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Speaker 2: Bo.

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Speaker 1: We don't get to see the tenth at Riviera this

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Speaker 1: year because the Genesis has been forced to move from

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Speaker 1: Riviera to Tory Pines. But if you like that narrow,

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Speaker 1: skinny little green on the tenth at Riviera, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: like the fourth at Spyglass. It's a dog leg left

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Speaker 1: where you cannot miss left, and your second shot is

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Speaker 1: into an incredibly narrow green. I think it might be

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Speaker 1: even more narrow than the tenth at Riviera. Then, starting

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Speaker 1: with whole six, you head back inland and suddenly you're

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Speaker 1: playing in a tree lined parkland. Style course. There's less

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Speaker 1: of a difference in difficulty between Pebble and Spyglass Hill

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Speaker 1: than there is between say, Tory Pines South and Tory

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Speaker 1: Pines North. Spy Glass might be a little bit easier

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Speaker 1: than Pebble Beach, but there won't be that big a

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Speaker 1: difference in scoring average between the two courses, most likely

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Speaker 1: in the first two rounds. And then we have the

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Speaker 1: iconic Pebble Beach golf links. Measuring at six nine and

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Speaker 1: seventy two yards, this par seventy two layout is the

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Speaker 1: second shortest course on the Tours schedule, behind only TPC

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Speaker 1: River Highlands, and I think that's a par seventy one.

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Speaker 1: But Pebble no pushover because it has the smallest greens

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Speaker 1: on the PGA Tour, and those greens are poa that

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Speaker 1: inscrutable putting surface that vexes so many of the best

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Speaker 1: putters in the world. There are a bunch of classic

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Speaker 1: holes at Pebble Beach, the par five eighteenth hole along

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Speaker 1: the coast, the seventh hole, that tiny little downhill one

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Speaker 1: hundred and six yard par three with the Pacific Ocean

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Speaker 1: as a backdrop, The par three seventeenth with its kidney

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Speaker 1: shaped green, the eighth and ninth holes are outstanding par fours.

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Speaker 1: Pebbles is just a gorgeous layout. Now the pros are

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Speaker 1: going to keep the driver in the bag and a

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Speaker 1: lot of these par fours there are a bunch of

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Speaker 1: forced layups here where you're just trying to get your

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Speaker 1: t shot in a position where you have a good

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Speaker 1: angle of approach into the green wedge. Play is going

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Speaker 1: to be critical this week. A lot of the approach

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Speaker 1: shots here are going to come from one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty yards and in the weather forecast always important to

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Speaker 1: monitor for this event because not always the best weather

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Speaker 1: on the peninsula this time of year, and we could

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Speaker 1: get a saggy weekend. On Thursday Day and Friday, we

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Speaker 1: should have dry but chili conditions with temperatures in the

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Speaker 1: mid to upper fifties, light winds of anywhere from about

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Speaker 1: five to ten miles an hour. On Saturday and Sunday,

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Speaker 1: there's showers in the forecast both days with wins of

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Speaker 1: ten to fifteen miles an hour Saturday five to ten

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. The defending champion is Wyndham Clark. He put

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Speaker 1: on a remarkable final round putting display last year, shooting

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Speaker 1: a course record at twelve under par round of sixty.

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Speaker 1: He finished minus seventeen and beat Ludwig Oberg. In last

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Speaker 1: year's weather shortened events, they only played fifty four holes.

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Speaker 1: Justin Rose here won in twenty twenty three with the

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Speaker 1: score of eighteen under par. Tom Hogy won here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, finishing nineteen under. Daniel Berger was the

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Speaker 1: champ in twenty twenty one, finishing eighteen under. Boe your

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Speaker 1: overall impressions of the AT and T Pebble Beach Proram.

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Speaker 2: My favorite tournament on the whole calendar. This is a

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Speaker 2: tournament that my dad took me to when I was

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Speaker 2: a high schooler at Junior High a young golfer. I

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Speaker 2: got to see Phil Micholson play here. Tiger Woods. VJ.

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Speaker 2: Singh the first course we went to when I was

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Speaker 2: making my first appearance at the Pebble Beach pro Am.

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Speaker 2: We saw a group with VJ. Singh and Phil Mickelson

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Speaker 2: and a mad Rashad main man a mad Rashad on

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Speaker 2: the first hole at Spyglass Hill. And that course, when

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Speaker 2: the wind is up a little bit, is tougher than

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Speaker 2: Pebble Beach. The tree line really throws people off. Lots

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Speaker 2: of forced layups on both courses. The rough at Spyglasses

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Speaker 2: more penal because of the trees being everywhere. Pebble Beach

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Speaker 2: if the weather steas dry, is going to be a

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Speaker 2: little bit tougher, but it's the pole. They're both extremely easy.

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Speaker 2: Like last year when there's a little bit of rain

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Speaker 2: to soften these greens up, because if these greens get

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Speaker 2: a little crusty with poana how small they are, you're

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Speaker 2: going to be narrowing the field to a very select

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Speaker 2: few accurate golfers with a wedge in their hand. And

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Speaker 2: I don't really think that driving accuracy plays a whole

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Speaker 2: lot into this, because most of these, even the bombers,

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Speaker 2: are gonna leave the driver in the bag so often.

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Speaker 2: Right off the first t at Pebble Beach, you will

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Speaker 2: not hit see a wood hit. It'll be four iron,

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Speaker 2: five iron hybrids. Just put the ball in the fairway

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Speaker 2: because if you're off, if you're off in the rough

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Speaker 2: at Pebble Beach, that's it. You got no chance. The

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Speaker 2: greens are too small, you have too much coastline, and

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Speaker 2: you didn't mention number six, which is my favorite hole

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Speaker 2: at Pebble Beach. The uphill par five on the cliffs,

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Speaker 2: the one where Tiger hit that iconic seven iron over

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Speaker 2: the hit over the trees, up the hill onto the

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Speaker 2: fringe into from the right rof, which is supposed to

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Speaker 2: be dead on that whole unbelievable golf course from one

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Speaker 2: to eighteen. I still think Spyglass has a chance to

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Speaker 2: be a little tougher and during the first two days

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Speaker 2: if the wind picks up. But I'm absolutely geeked for

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Speaker 2: this week's tournament. Shout out NorCal. This is our championship

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Speaker 2: and were we get to put it on showcase every

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Speaker 2: single year and about every five years at the US Open.

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Speaker 2: Pebble Beach is the one oh one of golf courses

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Speaker 2: in the whole world in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just pray we don't get any sort of

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Speaker 1: weather delay with the forecast series Sunday.

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Speaker 2: They called last year's storm a five hundred year storm,

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Speaker 2: so I think we're safe.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope. Although we have seen this event shortened

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Speaker 1: before in years past, things can get a little dicey,

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Speaker 1: but hopefully we get all four rounds. And the great

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Speaker 1: thing both with this being a signature event, getting a

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Speaker 1: field of this caliber out there because there was a

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Speaker 1: long time, like if you look at the tournament histories

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Speaker 1: of some of the top players, there were spans of five, six,

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Speaker 1: seven years where some of these veteran studs just skip

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Speaker 1: this thing entirely. And I'll suspect that's because it's a

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Speaker 1: pro am. I don't think the top guys love the

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Speaker 1: pro ams, and you know, maybe like having the three

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Speaker 1: course rotation was not all that appealing to them either.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so's it's a little different. Back in the nineties

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Speaker 2: when I was going, or late nineties, early two thousands,

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Speaker 2: the only reason Tiger didn't go the first year I

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Speaker 2: went was because he had knee surgery. But back in

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Speaker 2: those days, I'm old enough to remember when Poppy Hills

232
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Speaker 2: was in the rotation instead of Monterey Peninsula. Peninsula was

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Speaker 2: a terrible golf course for this tournament, and that's the

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Speaker 2: reason why a lot of people just didn't go. Because

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Speaker 2: one of the rounds is a complete crap shoot on

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Speaker 2: basically a muni course that is private. There's no appeal

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Speaker 2: to that golf course. Poppy Hills is ten times the

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Speaker 2: golf course the Monterey Peninsula was, but they just couldn't

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Speaker 2: keep up with the crowd size. The Poppy Hills property

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Speaker 2: is tiny, so I love the way that they're going

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Speaker 2: here with the signature event, eighty men, no cut, and

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Speaker 2: just the two best courses in the area Spyglass and Pebble.

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Speaker 2: That's the only two courses we care about anyway. And

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Speaker 2: now we get Scotti Scheffler back. Let's go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Let's take a look at the odds for the

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Speaker 1: AT and T Pebble Beach pro Am. All odds courtesy

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Speaker 1: of DraftKings as of Monday morning. Let's begin with the favorites.

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Speaker 1: And you said it both. Scotty Scheffler is back. He

249
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Speaker 1: missed the early part of the twenty twenty five schedule

250
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Speaker 1: with a hand injury sustained in a Christmas cooking mishap.

251
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Speaker 1: Scheffler opens with very short odds of four to one.

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Speaker 1: Right out of the gates. Rory McElroy is eleven to one.

253
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Speaker 1: Justin Thomas and Colin Morikawa are both fourteen to one.

254
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Speaker 1: Ludwig Oberg, hopefully feeling better, sixteen to one. Patrick Cantley

255
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,360
Speaker 1: is twenty to one. Hideki Matsiyama twenty five to one,

256
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Speaker 1: Sung j M twenty eight to one, Tommy Fleetwood thirty

257
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,160
Speaker 1: to one and Sam Burns, Jason Day, and Victor Hovlin.

258
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Speaker 1: I'll check in at thirty five to one. Anyone you

259
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Speaker 1: like from this group bo.

260
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Speaker 2: This guy named Scott Scheffler from Texas. He's pretty good

261
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:45,920
Speaker 2: and with his first appearance on tour in twenty twenty five,

262
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Speaker 2: becomes the first mention of live betting Scotty Scheffler. Four

263
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 2: to one is very short, but the guy has been

264
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Speaker 2: winning all sorts of tournaments. He's basically a twenty five

265
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Speaker 2: percent chance to win every time he tease it up,

266
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Speaker 2: So I get it. If you're betting four to one,

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Speaker 2: I'd rather see him slip five, six, seven to one

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Speaker 2: or even further with a slow start on Thursday. But

269
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Speaker 2: if that doesn't happen, four to one's fine because this

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Speaker 2: is the golf These two golf courses are both set

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00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 2: up to be exactly what sets Scotty Scheffler apart. Put

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Speaker 2: the ball in the fairway and nobody and I mean

273
00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,280
Speaker 2: zero people in this world on this planet are better

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Speaker 2: with a short iron in their hand than Scotty Scheffler. Zero.

275
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Speaker 2: He is the best in the world at what this

276
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Speaker 2: golf course demands. And even if he's a little off

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Speaker 2: with his iron play, which I do not expect because

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Speaker 2: it's Scotty Scheffler. He's got a world class short game,

279
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Speaker 2: which is also required here. Strokes gained around the green

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Speaker 2: part five scoring. This guy's got it in spades. So

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna start with Scotty. Hopefully I'll put more money

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Speaker 2: on him if he starts a little slow. But my

283
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 2: main guy that I'm betting on the most is Justin Thomas.

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Speaker 2: JT is going to have a really good and this

285
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Speaker 2: is a first. This is the first salvo to his season,

286
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,280
Speaker 2: picking up with a golf course that, again, like Scotti Scheffler,

287
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:11,360
Speaker 2: is set up for Justin Thomas to be a stellar

288
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 2: play at fourteen to one. Fourteen to one for him

289
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,480
Speaker 2: is crazy. Patrick Cantley maybe maybe has the best course

290
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 2: history here of anybody in the field, and he's eighteen

291
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 2: to one. He's played like hot garbage last year. But again,

292
00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,520
Speaker 2: nobody puts on Poanna better than better than Patrick Cantley,

293
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 2: and again a guy who just seems to grind it

294
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Speaker 2: out a little bit better than the rest of the field.

295
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,240
Speaker 2: I think Patrick's a better play if we start to

296
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 2: see a little bit less or more weather in the forecast,

297
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 2: a see a little bit of wind, a little bit

298
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Speaker 2: of rain in the forecast. I'm going to be leaning

299
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,360
Speaker 2: into Patrick Cantley because he's got the experience to back

300
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Speaker 2: up the money that we're gonna put behind him.

301
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Justin Thomas, so you mentioned, comes in with

302
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,560
Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum. He was second at the

303
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 1: American Express. He finished sixth year last year. Patrick cantl

304
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 1: He's finished eleventh or better in his last four at

305
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Ams. That includes a third

306
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 1: and a fourth. He's a California native. He finished fifth

307
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 1: at the MX two weeks ago. And as you said, Bo,

308
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,560
Speaker 1: his putting stats on Paul Greens are pretty special.

309
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,760
Speaker 2: He's the only player only player in this field to

310
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 2: never miss the cut at Pebble Beach minimum five appearances.

311
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,600
Speaker 2: He's never missed the cut in fifteen appearances here and

312
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 2: with no cut this week, that's going to continue.

313
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:32,960
Speaker 1: This course does suit him though, I mean, he does

314
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,480
Speaker 1: have an excellent track record. Rory McElroy has not really

315
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,680
Speaker 1: fared well in this event. His best finish was a

316
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,120
Speaker 1: sixty sixth, although he did finish ninth when the US

317
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,880
Speaker 1: Open was played here in twenty nineteen. Jason Day. Should

318
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,400
Speaker 1: we talk about himbo? I mean, he's kind of a

319
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 1: horse for the course. He's finished top twenty five in

320
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,240
Speaker 1: each of his last ten trips to Pebble Beach, including

321
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: that tie for a tie for twenty first at that

322
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 1: US Open in two twenty nineteen. He's finished in the

323
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 1: top seven seven times over that stretch. Day finished third

324
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,400
Speaker 1: at the AMX two weeks ago. But he's coming off

325
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,000
Speaker 1: a rough weekend at Tory Pines.

326
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's He's still playing really well. I think the

327
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,520
Speaker 2: weather got the best of him, even though he was

328
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 2: dressed to kill last week at Tory Pines. The best

329
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:23,959
Speaker 2: wardrobe I've seen on a professional golfer since Fuzzy Zeller's.

330
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 2: That's how good Jason Day looked last week. His game

331
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 2: on Sunday atrocious, cost me a lot of money and

332
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 2: won and done. We'll get to that. But JDA at

333
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:37,400
Speaker 2: Pebble Beach is like peanut butter and jelly, and yeah,

334
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 2: there's no reason not to bet him on a top

335
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,160
Speaker 2: ten or top twenty. I don't know if he can

336
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 2: win here with this field, but he's he's playing well

337
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:45,439
Speaker 2: enough to do it.

338
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,880
Speaker 1: What about Victor Hoveland? So he won the US Amateur

339
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:52,120
Speaker 1: match play here at Pebble Beach in twenty eighteen.

340
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 2: It's a long time ago. That's a long time ago.

341
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 1: It is a long time ago, quite a while, but

342
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,640
Speaker 1: you know, it just establishing the fact that he has

343
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,560
Speaker 1: had a little bit of success here. Any interest in

344
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 1: him with the prerequisite of precision iron play.

345
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't like his short game here, so if

346
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 2: he is striking the ball like he has the last

347
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 2: six months or so, then I'm not interested. But what's

348
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,400
Speaker 2: getting me is that he's down to thirty five to one,

349
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 2: and Victor Hoblin is much too talented to ever be

350
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,679
Speaker 2: that deep on the betting list, So thirty five to

351
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 2: one intrigues me. I just don't know that I like

352
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 2: him that much. But with thirty five to one means

353
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,240
Speaker 2: I can also throw a top ten out there with

354
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 2: pretty decent odds of paying off. I don't know if

355
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 2: I can see him winning, but thirty five is tempting.

356
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 2: That is, that's a huge number for a guy of

357
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:43,960
Speaker 2: his caliber.

358
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 1: That's where I'm at. And normally, even in a signature event,

359
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,360
Speaker 1: you're going to get Hoblind at like around twenty to one.

360
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 1: Thirty five to one.

361
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 2: Four rounds of victor and of course the demands iron play.

362
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 2: It seems nice, Yes it does.

363
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 1: Now before we get to the mid range options, help

364
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 1: shape the Betting Pros podcast, take our quick, easy survey

365
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash survey and share your feedback

366
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 1: to help us improve. All it takes is just a

367
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 1: minute or two again, go to Bettingpros dot com slash survey.

368
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Speaker 1: Now for the mid range betting options at the AT

369
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Am. After pulling out of

370
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 1: the Farmers last week, Will Xalatoris is forty to one

371
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,719
Speaker 1: at Pebble, Kegan Bradley, Jordan Speith, Corey Connors and defending

372
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 1: Champ Wyndham Clark are all forty five to one. Tom

373
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 1: Kim and Taylor Pendrith are fifty to one. We have

374
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 1: a big group at fifty five to one that includes

375
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:42,680
Speaker 1: Saheith Thgala, Robert McIntyre, Max Grazerman, Rasmus Hoyguard, Maverick McNeely,

376
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 1: Tony Final ben On and Sepstraca. And at sixty to

377
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 1: one are Russell Henley, bo Hostler, Adam Scott and Shane

378
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: Lowry bo Who should we like from this.

379
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,360
Speaker 2: Group, you're right off the top of you. At Keegan

380
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: you got Jordan Speith, who's always fared well. At Pebble Beach,

381
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 2: too bad, Jordan Speed's form has been awful the last

382
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 2: what two years. We haven't seen the real Jordan Speeth,

383
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 2: so I'm not in on Speed quite yet, even though

384
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 2: Pebble Beach does intrigue me because he's done so well

385
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: here over the years. I'm probably gonna start with Shane

386
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 2: Lowry at sixty to one. That's a crazy number, again

387
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 2: for a guy of his talent, especially if that weather

388
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 2: does not cooperate for the field. Is Shane Lowry the

389
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 2: north coast of California, not unlike Ireland. It's always windy,

390
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 2: it's always wet, and it's always chilly. It's even in

391
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 2: the dead of summer. You'll freeze your butt off on

392
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 2: the northern California coast. This is a golf course that

393
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 2: I think Shane Lowry will feel right at helm At

394
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 2: and sixty to one is kind of disrespectful, to be honest.

395
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,399
Speaker 2: I'm looking at that number just going what did he

396
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 2: do to these odds makers? Because that doesn't make any sense.

397
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 2: He's playing well. We've seen the best Shane Lowry over

398
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 2: the last year and a half. I think he's gonna

399
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 2: excel here, and with those odds outright, I don't have

400
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 2: to invest a lot in him except for top five

401
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: and top ten numbers are looking really good too. Shane

402
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 2: Lowry is a huge circle around on my betting slip.

403
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, when the temperature isn't going to touch sixty degrees

404
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: in any of the four rounds, and yeah, guys are

405
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: going to be walking around in rain gear that is

406
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: Shane Lowry weather. And by the way, he's fared pretty

407
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 1: well in the strokes gained at Pebble Beach stats, so yeah,

408
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: he looks really good. You mentioned Keegan Bradley bow forty

409
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 1: five to one. He's finished top fifteen in each of

410
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 1: the three events he's played this year, and he was

411
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: eleventh here a year ago. I'm kind of interested in

412
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 1: Bo Hostler. He's finished top fifteen in each of the

413
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: last two weeks, and he finished top fifteen in each

414
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 1: of his last three trips to Pebble, including a third

415
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. What about long shots Bo? Anyone

416
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 1: with odds of sixty five to one or longer who

417
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: stands out to you.

418
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 2: Hot golfer stay hot, especially when the courses are similar.

419
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 2: Nick Taylor sixty five to one, I got another big

420
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: circle around him. I'm willing to go as low as

421
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: fifty five to one on Nick Taylor. This dude is

422
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 2: a grinder, and this is another course where he can

423
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 2: grind his way all the way to the finish. I

424
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 2: have a couple more here. Gary Woodland is another pebble

425
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 2: Beach specialist at one hundred and ten to one. He's

426
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 2: been striking the ball extremely well, and he's another guy

427
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 2: that excels on poana greens more than any other surface.

428
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: And then we got Brian Harmon, who I don't even

429
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 2: like watching play golf. He's excruciating to watch play golf.

430
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,959
Speaker 2: He's extremely hard to like. Basically the most unlikable golfer

431
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 2: outside of Zach Johnson on tour in my opinion. But

432
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 2: him getting one hundred and fifty to one on a

433
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: golf course that fits his game as perfectly as pebble

434
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 2: Beach and Spyglass, that just doesn't make any sense to me.

435
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 2: One hundred and fifty one for Brian Harmon is that's

436
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 2: about the point where I'm gonna have to actually root

437
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 2: for the guy and then another guy who is another

438
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 2: Pebble Beach specialist, prior winner here a couple of years ago.

439
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 2: Seamous power of the Irishman one hundred and fifty to one.

440
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 2: He's too good of a putter and too good of

441
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 2: an iron player for that to I mean, he's number

442
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 2: two in this field in that number one approach bucket

443
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 2: from one twenty five to one fifty. He's number three

444
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 2: on strokes game par five, and he just solid across

445
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 2: the board. Seamous power comes in at twelfth in my model,

446
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 2: at one hundred and fifty to one. I am all

447
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: over that.

448
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you mentioned Gary Woodland finished fifth at the

449
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: AT and T Pebble Beach in twenty seventeen, and oh,

450
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 1: by the way, won the US Open here in twenty

451
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: nineteen and getting him at one hundred and ten to one. Yes, please.

452
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: Tom Hogy won here in twenty twenty two, sixth here

453
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: last year, twelfth and twenty twenty one. Hogy led the

454
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: tour last year in proximity to the whole on approach

455
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: shots from one hundred and twenty five to one hundred

456
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: and fifty yards, a key distance here. Third in proximity

457
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: on approach shots from fifty to one hundred and twenty

458
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: five yards and he's going off at eighty to one.

459
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have some Tom Hogy, Danny McCarthy seventy five

460
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: to one, his three most recent finishes at the AT

461
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Am twelfth, fourth and twenty sixth.

462
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,239
Speaker 1: And how about Justin rose Bow at one hundred and

463
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 1: fifty to one. He won here two years ago in

464
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, was eleventh here last year. That's just

465
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 1: too I don't know. Those are far too long, I

466
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 1: think for a player like Justin rose on a course

467
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: he has shown an aptitude four. All right, bo, let's

468
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: get to our early betting cards. Who are you betting

469
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: as of now?

470
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna live bet Scottie Scheffler. I'm gonna bet

471
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 2: right off the bat Justin Thomas at fourteen to one.

472
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,640
Speaker 2: Patrick can't lay at eighteen to one. And then I'm

473
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 2: gonna do some top ten and top twenty work with

474
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 2: some small outrights on Shane Lowry and Nick Taylor, and

475
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: we're gonna throw out a couple dollars for outrights and

476
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 2: top twenties on Gary Woodland, Brian Harmon and Seamus Power.

477
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 1: You know you mentioned outrights on Can't Lay You Got

478
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: eighteen to one, and I grabbed him a little earlier

479
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: at twenty to one. I saw that that had changed

480
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: just before we came on with this show. I'm also

481
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: betting Victor Hovland outright at thirty five to one and

482
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 1: Shane Lowry outright at sixty to one. I'm taking Bo

483
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: Hostler at sixty to one, with a top five kicker

484
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: at nine to one, Tom Hogiate eighty to one with

485
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah it is. Tom Hogy is eighty to one with

486
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: the top ten kicker at plus five point fifty. I'm

487
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 1: taking Danny McCarthy top five at eleven to one and

488
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 1: top ten at plus four fifty. And I've gotten outright

489
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: on Justin Rowse at one hundred and fifty to one.

490
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: Couldn't help myself now for the one and done competition.

491
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: We're only four events into the new year and I

492
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: have already managed to pick two cut missers. I had

493
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 1: Tony fen Now last week. Normally at Torrey Pine's Ace.

494
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: Tony Fenow, in his high ball flight, did not fare

495
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,239
Speaker 1: especially well in a windier than usual version of the

496
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 1: Farmer's Insurance Open. Bo You originally had will Zalatorus. After

497
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: he withdrew, you pivoted to Jason Day. He finished hied

498
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: for thirty second, earning you fifty two eighty dollars, but

499
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, he was in position for a much

500
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: bigger payday and slid down the leader board over the

501
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: weekend you select first. Who are you taking at Pebble Beach.

502
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the advantage of going first this

503
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: week and take Patrick Cantleyer off the board for you.

504
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't blame you for that one. I do

505
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: think he is a great play here.

506
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,719
Speaker 2: I just hope he does well on the weekend because

507
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 2: making cuts but not really paying off isn't really giving

508
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 2: me as much of a lead as I was hoping

509
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: with you. With missing two of the force four cuts,

510
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 2: I really don't have that big of an edge, I know.

511
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: And we get the signature event this week, so with

512
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 1: a big week I could close ground in a hurry

513
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: and bo just despite you. Since he did you no

514
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: favors last week. I'm gonna try Jason Day this week

515
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: on a course where he has traditionally fared quite well.

516
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: And you know that's really going to stick it to

517
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: you if you know he did poorly for you and

518
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 1: does great for me.

519
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: He played like he had the flu whenever, like the

520
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: guy I had first to Will's Alatauris had the flu

521
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 2: and everybody else had the flu. Jason Day played like

522
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: he had the flu. He looked good though. He looked

523
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 2: so good out there in his malbond gear.

524
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: Hopefully his uh sartorial presence is equally impressive this week,

525
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: and that's gonna do it for this week's Betting Pros

526
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: PGA podcast. We will be back next week with a

527
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 1: preview of the always fun, always rowdy Waste Management Phoenix Open.

528
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 1: Until then, so long everyone.

529
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

530
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

531
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

532
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,280
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533
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

534
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros