1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati. This week climate migrants. 2 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: As the fires in Los Angeles continue to burn, displaced 3 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: residents are trying to pick up the pieces of their 4 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: lives in an evacuations shelter in Westwood, Bloomberg reporter Michelle 5 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: Ma spoke with a seventy two year old man named 6 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: Paul letter. 7 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 2: Where and can I ask where you live? Well? 8 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 3: I used to live in the Palaceades. 9 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 4: Okay? 10 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 2: And do you know what the state of. 11 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 3: Your home is? Ninety nine percent. 12 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 2: Correct? I'm so sorry. 13 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 3: I mean they called it a war zone, app apocalyptic, 14 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 3: it's you've seen the pictures. It's it's unbelievable. And when 15 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 3: did you leave? 16 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: Paul had just enough time to grab his two cats, 17 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:04,039 Speaker 1: a few sentimental items before he left, but not much else. 18 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: I and two jackets, my jacket my father used to 19 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 3: wear a sports jacket and a fifty year old leather 20 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 3: jacket that I get complimented on. 21 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: Where will he go next? He does not know. Each year, 22 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: the number of people making decisions like the ones he's 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,559 Speaker 1: facing grows. In the US alone, a Census Bureau survey 24 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: found that at least a million people were displaced by 25 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: climate catastrophes in twenty twenty two, and the International Organization 26 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: for Migration estimates that there might be as many as 27 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: a billion environmental migrants around the world within the next 28 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: thirty years. It's something Gaya Vince has written about in 29 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: two superb books. In her twenty fourteen book Adventures in 30 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: the Anthroposcene, she traveled the world to document what people 31 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: in places like Nepal and Bolivia are doing to deal 32 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: with a warming climate, and then in her twenty twenty 33 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: book No Matt Century, that thesis forward by talking about 34 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: places where people cannot adapt and will need to move 35 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 1: as these fires rage on. I wanted to talk to 36 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: her about what it will take for us to adjust 37 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: to this new reality. 38 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: This is just more evidence that we are now living 39 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 2: in a different world. We're living in the post climate 40 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: change world. 41 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: Gaya, as you'll hear, thinks about global solutions to these 42 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: kinds of problems, but local solutions are needed to The 43 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 1: geography and politics of the Los Angeles area poses its 44 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: own challenges. So I also spoke with climate reporter Jake 45 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 1: Bittle about what California's government is doing when it comes 46 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: to the challenges of rebuilding. He's a staff writer for 47 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: Christ and the author of The Great Displacement about migration 48 00:02:43,080 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: in the uas Cheke, Welcome to the show. 49 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 4: Thanks for having me. 50 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: We're speaking as fires continue to burn in Los Angeles, 51 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: and one of the many questions that is on a 52 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: lot of people's mind is what happens after the disaster, 53 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: what gets rebuilt and what is not going to be built. 54 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: And you had a very interesting thread on X about 55 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: the economics of which neighborhoods get built after a fire 56 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: and why they might sometimes be surprising. So, given what 57 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: we know of LA right now, how do you think 58 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: this plays out. 59 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's difficult to tell for sure, because you know, 60 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 4: the housing market that burned, you know, in the Palisades 61 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 4: fire especially, is just one of the most valuable and 62 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 4: desirable in the world arguably. But I think that what 63 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 4: we've seen in the past in California is that some 64 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 4: of the wealthiest neighborhoods in the most complex terrain, not 65 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 4: only do they tend to be under insured because they're 66 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: so high value. Also, you know, the permitting and construction 67 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 4: process can be really difficult and take a really long 68 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 4: time because you're building just on really really difficult ground. Right, Like, 69 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 4: there's really steep slopes. Developing those canyons is really hard 70 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 4: to begin with, so redeveloping them is also going to 71 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 4: be hard and expensive. 72 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: But is there an assumption that given how wealthy the 73 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: people were who could afford to live in the palisades 74 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: versus say, the people in the eating fire in places 75 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: like Alteradina aren't as wealthy. That is, the palaces that 76 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: get rebuilt and Alternina not. 77 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, you might think right that, oh, well, the 78 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 4: rich people have more money, so they're going to be 79 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 4: able to rebuild faster. But very few people have enough 80 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 4: money on hand to just rebuild a home out of pocket. 81 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 3: Right. 82 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 4: You're talking about almost a million dollars of rebuilding costs 83 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 4: in some of these cases, right, So you know, it 84 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 4: really comes down to how much insurance you have, and 85 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 4: in particular, I think how much of the proportion of 86 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 4: the value of your home is insured. Right, So if 87 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 4: you're in a home that's maybe six hundred and seven 88 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 4: hundred thousand dollars, you can probably cover that with a 89 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 4: typical insurance policy. And the insurance situation in Altadena actually 90 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 4: turns out to have been better than in a lot 91 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 4: of other places in California, in part because the insurance 92 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 4: hadn't gotten around to dropping these people yet, because they 93 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 4: hadn't had a fire in a while, and the homes 94 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 4: weren't you know, super super high value. But then in 95 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 4: a place like the Palisades, right, Okay, these homes are 96 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 4: worth millions and millions of dollars, it's hard to find 97 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 4: market insurance coverage that covers that. So if you lose 98 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 4: your home and you didn't have insured the full value, okay, 99 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 4: what are you going to do? Either you dip into 100 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 4: your savings to just rebuild it out of pocket, which 101 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 4: I'm sure some people would do, right, like the wealthiest. 102 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 4: But if you are wealthy and you had a big home, 103 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 4: but not that wealthy to where you can just sport 104 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: you just build a new one with the money you 105 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 4: have in your you know, Merrilynch account, then you're really 106 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 4: in a pickle. And I saw this happen in Santa 107 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 4: Rosa after the twenty seventeen Tubs fire. There was a 108 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 4: hillside neighborhood with relatively wealthy homeowners and on complex terrain, 109 00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 4: and they really struggled to rebuild. 110 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: The other thing that is a wider problem, which is 111 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: just housing in general, and building new housing is now 112 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: competing with sort of rebuilding after a disaster. We heard 113 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: from Governor Gavin Newsom that he wants to see if 114 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: the legislature will suspend some of the Environmental Assessment Act 115 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: and the Coastal Planning Act. What do you think happens 116 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 1: in these situations where a government goes beyond in a 117 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 1: desire to want to rebuild, but in the process perhaps 118 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: encourage is building in the very same places that are 119 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 1: risky and vulnerable to these disasters in the future. Again. 120 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's really really hard. In the past couple 121 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 4: of years before this fire, California and Gavinism, they've been 122 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 4: trying to suspend SECO and the coastal like just to 123 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 4: build regular housing, right, just to build multi family housing. 124 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 4: And they've they've made some progress in getting some of 125 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 4: that permitting streamlined. I think it's a little rich for 126 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 4: the governor to say, oh, I'm going to suspend this stuff. 127 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,119 Speaker 4: It turns out we can just do this the whole time. 128 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 4: You know, rebuilding after disasters is really complicated, and permitting 129 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 4: is one part of it. But the truth is it 130 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 4: takes a couple of years even in the best case scenario, right, 131 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 4: But I think that the conversation about whether to rebuild 132 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 4: or where we're going to rebuild is one that the 133 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 4: governor seems, you know, intent on sort of trying to 134 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 4: move past that as fast as possible, which is pretty typical. 135 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 4: But you know, in his defense, I guess it's a 136 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 4: pretty hard conversation to have, right, Like, the land is 137 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 4: still owned by the people who live on it. They 138 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 4: technically have a right to come back, right since they 139 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 4: own the property, And you know, saying let's not do 140 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 4: this is really tough, and very few places really try 141 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 4: to do it, especially in California where property values are 142 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 4: so high. 143 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: And we should talk about insurance because there are two 144 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: layers to this, which is one, you cannot really rebuild 145 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: without insurance, but also the way insurance is playing out, 146 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: especially in California but a few other states in the US, 147 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: there is perhaps misbuilding happening because the insurance that is 148 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: being provided is not private, it's not really taking risk 149 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: into consideration, it's being backed by the state, and so 150 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: you're building in the very places that will burn again. 151 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: So talk goes through what the changes in the California 152 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: insurance system have been and whether you think they are 153 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: actually going to work in this hot world that we 154 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: are creating and caninue to heat up. 155 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really interesting situation in California and sort 156 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 4: of like a far more acute version of what other 157 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 4: states have experienced, where I think as the fire damage 158 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 4: has gotten worse, they've sort of encountered this trade off 159 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 4: between you know, price pressure and consumers and the availability 160 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 4: of coverage. And for a long time, California basically chose 161 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 4: to limit price pressure and consumers and then they're paying 162 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 4: the price with affordability where you know, tens or hundreds 163 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 4: of thousands of people have lost their coverage and the 164 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 4: state basically like two weeks before these fires finally finish 165 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 4: this failuatory process that Okay, insurers, you can charge more money, 166 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 4: you can you can account for the risk of climate change, 167 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 4: you can pass on your costs in an exchange, Please 168 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 4: stay in these areas. And so I think that you know, 169 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 4: it remains to be seen. And the big question I 170 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 4: think for the post La fires world is whether you know, 171 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 4: if insurers feel like they can set an adequate price, 172 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 4: whether that acts as an effective signal to the homeowners 173 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 4: that you know, from the perspective of fire risk. There 174 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 4: really shouldn't be living in these homes in these places 175 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 4: unless they take substantial mitigation action, right, because that's what 176 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 4: insurance is supposed to do. It's supposed to be a 177 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 4: signal about climate risk in the rational way of viewing it, 178 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 4: and it hasn't been in California effectively. And the question now, 179 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 4: I think is if you have people paying, you know, 180 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 4: upwards of five, six, seven, ten thousand dollars a year 181 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 4: for insurance and it won't go down unless they mitigate 182 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:41,719 Speaker 4: or get out of the way, does that start to 183 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 4: change the building patterns? I'm not sure what the answer 184 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 4: would be, but that's sort of the big, big question 185 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 4: I think. 186 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: So now we take a step back and just look 187 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 1: at the book that you've written on the Great Displacement. 188 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: You make the case that you're already starting to see 189 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: in some pockets real climate change driven migration within the US, 190 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: and that'll get super charged as extreme weather events get worse. 191 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: Could you talk us through what kind of notable stories 192 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: have stuck with you? 193 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think on the fires specifically, there's sort of 194 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 4: two big things that stuck with me. 195 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: Right. 196 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 4: One is that for people at the lower end of 197 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 4: the income scale in really tough rental and housing markets. 198 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 4: A lot of times what happened is they either got 199 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 4: pushed out of home ownership and into a really chaotic 200 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 4: rental market where they're being price gouged, or they just 201 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 4: sort of bounced from apartment to apartment. You know, this 202 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 4: happened in Santa Rosa. It was almost impossible to get 203 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 4: an affordable apartment even before the fire. But then you 204 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 4: lose five thousand housing units in the night, and it's 205 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 4: just really really hard to find a place to settle. 206 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 4: The other thing that's really interesting, I think, and you 207 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 4: may see this happen too in La but maybe to 208 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 4: a lesser extent, just given the political geography of the place. 209 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 4: Because a lot of people in Northern California, in places 210 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 4: like Paradise, which are relatively conservative and compared to the 211 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 4: state as a whole, which is trending left, they took 212 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 4: them insurance payout that they got from the fire, and 213 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 4: they just made an elective move to a different part 214 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 4: of the country. 215 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:05,319 Speaker 2: Right. 216 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 4: So I think most notably, like a lot of people 217 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 4: from Paradise, I want to say it's in the dozens 218 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 4: ended up moving to Boise, Idaho, which is obviously more 219 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 4: conservative state. These people were not on the wealthy end 220 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 4: of the income scale in California, but in the Boise 221 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 4: housing market they were like titans. You know, they could 222 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 4: get huge houses in the suburbs of Boise, and you 223 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: know that they went through a lot. I'm not trying 224 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 4: to say that they made out great, but like you 225 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 4: can either for people who are maybe have less equity 226 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 4: in their home or they're renting to begin with, it 227 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 4: just ends up being this sort of scramble. You know, 228 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 4: a disaster could honestly be a sort of unsticking point 229 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 4: where it, you know, induces a move that they maybe 230 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 4: otherwise wouldn't have made. 231 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: But there's also a sort of stunning admission in the 232 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: book where if you look at current migration patterns, yes, 233 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: California and perhaps Louisiana the two states from where people 234 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: are leaving, and some of that might be climate links, 235 00:11:57,520 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 1: some of that might be just affordability link, but more 236 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: to the migration is actually happening towards stages that are 237 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: being affected by climate change. So Florida is seeing a 238 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: lot of migration. State that gets hit by hurricanes all 239 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,679 Speaker 1: the time. Arizona another state which gets hit by droughts 240 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: and heat. Is that just us seeing an old pattern 241 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: of economic migration, or are we going to start to 242 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: finally see a reversal because of climate change? Like how 243 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: do you square the circle here? 244 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, this was the most deviling question that still remains 245 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 4: with me from the book. You know, it's climate migration. 246 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 4: It's just people not liking the climate in Michigan and 247 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 4: deciding to move to Fort Lauderdale, you know. And that's 248 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 4: the median form of climate migration, even in just in 249 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 4: the twenty first century so far. I don't know at 250 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 4: what point that trend reverses itself, but I do think 251 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 4: a lot of the places that the post war housing 252 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 4: boom took place in the United States, where there was 253 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 4: a ton of cheap land, I think we've sort of 254 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 4: gotten to a point. This is true in Colorado too, 255 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 4: like at the Front Range. You've gut to a point 256 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 4: where we're just pushing out from what was the sort 257 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 4: of central cities at those times into really really risky land. 258 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 4: And in Arizona, of course, it's just very hot there. 259 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 4: I think insurance, you know, probably is the mechanism, at 260 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 4: least in the case of Florida, right, that would sort 261 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 4: of force like a slow down or a cessation of 262 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: this dynamic. I think like Florida is probably the place 263 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 4: to look for this, right because you also have to 264 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 4: pay for flood insurance and wind insurance there. And I've 265 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 4: spoken to people and these these rapidly developing metroplexes right 266 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 4: like Fort Myers or Tampa where I'm from, sometimes they 267 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 4: can pay upwards of twenty thousand dollars a year and 268 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 4: insurance costs combined between the two formats, and that is 269 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 4: just not sustainable for almost anybody. And then you know, 270 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 4: the rebuilding rules are really tough too. So I think 271 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 4: that it's possible that in the next couple of decades, 272 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 4: in a geographically specific way, you might sort of start 273 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 4: to see the housing market be unable to tolerate further 274 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 4: expansion into these areas. And then what comes out to 275 00:13:57,920 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 4: that is another big question. 276 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: So most climate change link migration, as we know, happens 277 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: within countries. Obviously, you focused on the US with your book, 278 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: but are there lessons that the rest of the world 279 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: can take from it? Noting that, of course the US 280 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: is is, you know, the world's largest economy, one of 281 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: the richest countries in the world has a much more 282 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: developed and widespread insurance market. But still are there lessons 283 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: that others can take. 284 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely. I think that the main lesson is that 285 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 4: for a lot of disasters, climate displacement just kind of 286 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 4: looks a lot like regular housing displacement does, right, And 287 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 4: so I think like La is a good example. Right, 288 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 4: this is like a giant housing market, and it's a 289 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 4: giant rental market. It's like one of the biggest in 290 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 4: the country. So you're not likely to see people get 291 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 4: up out of their house in Altadena and walk up 292 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 4: to North Dakota, right, or to Canada. 293 00:14:58,720 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 3: Right. 294 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 4: They can go to the suburb or the next suburb of, 295 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 4: or the next suburb of. And that's the way that 296 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 4: housing displacement works in LA generally, Like if you get evicted, 297 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 4: you're not going to go to North Dakota, right, So, 298 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 4: and I think that's probably true in other countries too, right, 299 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 4: Like people sort of move in ways that are typical 300 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 4: of those places. I think that the typical image in 301 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 4: the United States and other places of a climate migrant 302 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 4: is someone who you know, flees from one climate to another, right, 303 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 4: Like they want to make an elective move away from, 304 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 4: you know, one type of weather event, and I think 305 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 4: that it's probably better from a policymaking standpoint if we 306 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 4: just think about climate change as being kind of a 307 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 4: factor that exacerbates all the other weaknesses in the way 308 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 4: that we house people. In the United States, we have 309 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 4: specific weaknesses, as you know, and then in other countries 310 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 4: there are other weaknesses. 311 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: Thank you, Jake, No problem. After the break, Guy Evins 312 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: on why climate upheaval is a global problem and needs 313 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: global solutions. If you've been enjoying this episode, please take 314 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: a moment to rate and review the show on Apple 315 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: Podcasts and Spotify. It helps other listeners find the show. Kaya, 316 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Oh, it's such a pleasure to 317 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: be here Atala now. Both of us have been watching 318 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: the news from Los Angeles. The fires are still burning 319 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: as we record this, and there's a lot that we 320 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: aren't going to know about how communities in the Pacific 321 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: Palisades or other areas will recover. In the intro, we 322 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: heard from Paul who was living there. He has no 323 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: idea whether he's going to get a chance to go 324 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: back and move into the Pacific Palisades. What has surprised 325 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: you or perhaps confirmed conclusions from your own reporting as 326 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: you've watched the story. 327 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, obviously I'm seeing it from London, so 328 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 2: I don't have that very first hand view. But it's 329 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 2: so photographed, isn't it. Because it is, and I think 330 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 2: what we're seeing here is perhaps the first example of 331 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 2: wealthy climate migration, right, because we're seeing some of the 332 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: richest people in the world having to move. But I 333 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 2: think it's a reminder that we are all at the 334 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:21,360 Speaker 2: bottom of everything, a puny mammal that has certain needs. 335 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: Right. 336 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 2: We can't live under certain temperatures. We can't live where 337 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 2: there's flames around our homes, you know, we can't breathe 338 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 2: air that is infused with smoke. We have to move. 339 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 2: And so for all our luxury mansions and our dreams 340 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 2: of paradise, we are actually an animal that needs to 341 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 2: find a safe home. And we are seeing the very 342 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,479 Speaker 2: real dangers from these huge, huge earth systems, and we 343 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 2: can't just push them back, you know. 344 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 1: So in the two books, out of the many books 345 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: you've written, in the Adventure in the Anthroposy, you documented 346 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 1: how people in different parts the world, especially in the 347 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: Global South, are starting to adapt to the warming that 348 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: exists already. But then in no matter century, you took 349 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: this one step forward to think about places which are 350 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:15,719 Speaker 1: beyond adaptation. When did that hit you that these places 351 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 1: are there and they're growing in size. 352 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:19,959 Speaker 2: I think I took a two and a half year 353 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 2: journey around the world to research adventures in the anthroposcene, 354 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 2: and it slowly sort of crept up on me that 355 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 2: what I was seeing was enormous amounts of climate migration, 356 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 2: even though people themselves didn't recognize themselves as climate migrants. 357 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 2: They thought that they were perhaps you know, moving for 358 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 2: a better job, leaving rural areas because the economy wasn't 359 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 2: working there. But actually, when you dug into it, why 360 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 2: wasn't it working? It was because of persistent chronic drought 361 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 2: that had got worse over the last decade or so. 362 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 2: It was because of the encroachment of salt water from 363 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 2: rising sea levels into Agrica cultural fields. It was because 364 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 2: the coastline had completely eroded through you know, more vicious storms, 365 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 2: and that constant rising of sea levels, and all of 366 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 2: these things made me recognize that we don't have an 367 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 2: honest level of debate at all anywhere, certainly not from leadership. 368 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 2: We're not talking about the climate change that has already occurred. 369 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 2: We're not talking about what our cities will look like 370 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: over the coming decades. You know, what will la look 371 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 2: like in twenty forty, twenty sixty, What will London look like? 372 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 2: What will New York? What will Miami? Because we need 373 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 2: to adapt right now to those changes, and we need 374 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 2: to recognize that some of those places are just not 375 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 2: going to be livable. So we're not having that conversation 376 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 2: and people are going to have to move. 377 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 1: What is the scale of migration that we're talking about. 378 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 2: It's impossible to put a figure on that because it 379 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 2: depends on a lot of things. We've just had the 380 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 2: first full year where the average temperature was one point 381 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: six degrees above the pre and US average. You know, 382 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,959 Speaker 2: temperatures may go down slightly, but they are on an 383 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 2: upward trajectory, and if we look ahead, it's quite likely 384 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 2: that we will end up by the end of the 385 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 2: century somewhere between three and four degrees above the pre 386 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 2: industrial average. We already have people living in unlivable zones, 387 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 2: some of them heavily adapted and some of them suffering horribly. 388 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,719 Speaker 2: Places from Sudan to Malia have hunger because of drought 389 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,120 Speaker 2: or floods. We have people in Asia farm workers who 390 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 2: are now working at night with head torches because it's 391 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 2: simply too hot during the day. We already have these 392 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 2: unlivable areas, but what will happen is they will increase 393 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 2: in severity and intensity and last for many months of 394 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 2: the year, if not throughout. Some studies have put the 395 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,960 Speaker 2: zone of unlivability this kind of climate niche of humanity 396 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 2: sort of shifting up, and that area will encompass some 397 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 2: three billion people by twenty seventy according to one study. 398 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 2: That doesn't mean three billion people will have to move, 399 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 2: but it means that vast areas will have to be 400 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 2: adapted and people will have to be accommodated, either within 401 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 2: their own nation or increasingly across borders. But you know, 402 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 2: if we want fewer people to have to move to 403 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 2: be forced to move, we can do a lot in 404 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 2: terms of mitigating the temperature rise to come through decarbonization, 405 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 2: but also through adapting and making some of these desperately 406 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 2: difficult places more habitable longer term. But at the moment 407 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 2: we're really not doing any of that. We're not even 408 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 2: adapting places in the rich world, let alone the poor world. 409 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: And these projections become more uncertain the further out in 410 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: time you go. But are there specific countries or regions 411 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,880 Speaker 1: that you've looked at where we can definitively say that 412 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 1: climate change has caused or has been the primary reason 413 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: for people migrating away. 414 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, Like the majority of climate migration is occurring 415 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,439 Speaker 2: within countries, and we see that in a lot of 416 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 2: the most hit places. Obviously, Bangladesh has huge amounts of 417 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 2: climate migration from the Bay of Bengal to other areas. 418 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 2: But you know, there was a really interesting study out 419 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 2: recently that showed that drought in the growing season in 420 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 2: meso America is directly correlated with the number of migrants 421 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 2: at the US border. So when it's particularly dry during 422 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 2: the growing season, it pushes up food prices across Central America, 423 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,160 Speaker 2: and then we get this wave of increased migration towards 424 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 2: the US border. And that's perhaps the most kind of 425 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 2: beautiful correlation that I've seen. But we also see in 426 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 2: parts of Africa, we see a lot of climate migrants. 427 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 2: We just had a really horrific flooding in East Africa, 428 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 2: a place which is also suffering from chronic drought. What 429 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 2: we're seeing is these cascading effects of one impact then 430 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 2: leading to another impact. I mean, if we look back 431 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 2: to Pakistan a couple of years ago, they had months 432 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 2: of intense heat which was concurrent with extreme drought, which 433 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 2: hit food prices and caused harvest losses. And then they 434 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 2: got this terrible precipitation, this flash floods that caused thirty 435 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 2: three million people to be displaced within a week. And 436 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 2: then that's followed by landslides. Because the drought dries the 437 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 2: soils and pulls it away from infrastructure, from houses and 438 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 2: bridges and so on, making it much more susceptible. When 439 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 2: those floods come, you get the loss of the top soil, 440 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,199 Speaker 2: which can take a decade sometimes to be replenished, so 441 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 2: terrible harvest problems. But also you get that loss of 442 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 2: huge amounts of erosion loss of the soil. And we 443 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 2: see that everywhere. 444 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: These impacts are being felt very widely, are being talked 445 00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 1: about at a level where there is awareness of the problem. 446 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: We also know there are potential solutions, but there aren't 447 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 1: that many places that are following through with those solutions. 448 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 1: We know the amount of adaptation funding is vastly smaller 449 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: than the funding that goes to reducing emissions. We need 450 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: to do both, but definitely there's a huge gap and adaptation. 451 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: So are there places that are starting to or perhaps 452 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: are already doing a good job that others can look 453 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 1: at and learn from. 454 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 2: I think Bangladesh is a really great example actually of 455 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:38,880 Speaker 2: how adaptation can work well. So they have cyclones in 456 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 2: the Bay of Bengal, and they have become progressively worse, 457 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 2: more intense, more frequent, more severe, and yet they've put 458 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 2: in place a brilliant adaptation strategy where everybody knows what 459 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,239 Speaker 2: to do in the case of a cyclone. There are 460 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 2: early warning systems. People get alerts, they know where to go, 461 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: they know where to bring their animals, they know that 462 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 2: they will be allowed to return if they want. So 463 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 2: there is a lot of trust there in the institutions, 464 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 2: and that's one of the most fundamental things to adaptation. Now, 465 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 2: what's happened is, even though the severity and the frequency 466 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 2: of these cyclones have become far more intense in recent years, 467 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 2: the death toll has absolutely plummeted. Very few people die 468 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,120 Speaker 2: comparatively to how many used to and we can all 469 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 2: learn from that. I mean, we should all be preparing 470 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 2: ourselves for an extreme event hitting us in our town. 471 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 2: You know, is your bag packed? Where would you go? 472 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 2: Where's the safe place that you would drive to or 473 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 2: walk to? Do you have your friend's numbers written down? 474 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 2: Do you have the numbers of relations? Do you have 475 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 2: enough food and fresh water to survive for a few days? 476 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 2: Do you have battery pack? All of these things are 477 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 2: conversations that we should be having, especially if we live 478 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 2: in places that are a bit further out, are a 479 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 2: bit more rural, as people in la are realizing today. 480 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 2: You never know when something can hit. 481 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: There is this quote that crops up on social media 482 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 1: every so often, especially when there's a disaster unfolding from 483 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: scientists called John Holdron, who eventually became the science advisor 484 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 1: to Barack Obama, the former US president, and the quote said, 485 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: there are basically three choices, adaptation, mitigation, and suffering. We 486 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 1: are going to do a mix of all of that. 487 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 1: But the more we mitigate, the less we'll have to adapt, 488 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 1: and the less there will be suffering. Now, what we 489 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: are seeing in front of us is obviously a mix 490 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 1: of all that, but we are seeing not enough mitigation. 491 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 1: Definitely not enough adaptation and does more suffering, and that 492 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: causes or will cause in much larger numbers, migration that's 493 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 1: already become a hot button issue world over. Right, we've 494 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:09,199 Speaker 1: seen politics turn to the right, turn to be anti 495 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: immigrant in most Western economies over the past few years. 496 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 1: How are we going to deal with the challenge of 497 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 1: migration if the politics is already so toxic. 498 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 2: You know, we are living in this time when the 499 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 2: narrative around migration is truly toxic. We have leaders that 500 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 2: are far right, that are populists, that are slogan driven 501 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 2: rather than vision led leadership to try and bring us 502 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 2: together to solve these planetary scale crises. What we need 503 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 2: is honesty. We need honesty over the scale of the 504 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:49,640 Speaker 2: climate disaster, but we also need honesty about migration. Right, 505 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 2: it's completely normal and natural people move. We need to 506 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 2: counter some of the toxic tropes that come out that 507 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 2: immigrants increase on employment. The opposite is true, that they 508 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 2: lower wages. Most economists would agree that immigration is absolutely 509 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 2: essential in order to keep productivity, especially at a time 510 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 2: when our birth rates are absolutely plummeting. You know, in 511 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 2: a few decades, if not just one decade, nations will 512 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 2: be competing for immigrants, and you know, those nations that 513 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 2: manage to endear themselves to people who want to move 514 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 2: there are going to be in the better position. But 515 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 2: ultimately we have to be pragmatic. You know, migration is inevitable, 516 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 2: it's already underway. It is only going to increase. What 517 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 2: we need to do is engage with the reality that 518 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 2: we have right in front of us and make it 519 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 2: work for us, because there are so many benefits to 520 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 2: it if we get it right. 521 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: There are reason which you can get migration right, and 522 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: there are clearly reason which you can get migration wrong. 523 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: Are there any places where there are politicians that have 524 00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 1: successfully made the economic case for migration, pulled it off 525 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 1: and actually won an election. 526 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 2: Well, so it's a kind of sort of the dog 527 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 2: chasing its tail in a way. So the reason quite 528 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 2: often that leaders are chasing the anti migrant vote is 529 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 2: because they themselves have made such an anti migrant case, 530 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 2: and they're sort of supporting media that is also making 531 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 2: the anti migrant case. So the public therefore think that 532 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 2: they want no migrants, and nobody really is making a 533 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 2: positive migrant case, so they're sort of like locked in 534 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:37,280 Speaker 2: this ridiculous vicious circle, which is completely unproductive for anybody. 535 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 2: But I mean, if you look at Australia, for example, 536 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 2: I think it's like almost a third of Australians were 537 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 2: born out of the country and about half of Australians 538 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 2: have at least one parent that was born out of 539 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 2: the country. Now, Australia is quite a weird example because 540 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 2: on one side it's vehemently anti migrant and on the 541 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 2: other side it's incredibly pro migro, so they haven't quite 542 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 2: got that right. But there are definitely aspects which are 543 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 2: very pro migrant. And again the same situation with Canada. 544 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 2: I mean, you only have to spend two seconds in 545 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 2: Toronto to realize that this is an immigrant city, as. 546 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: All cities are. 547 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 2: You. 548 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean London has the same qualification of having 549 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: half the population actually not being born in the UK, 550 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 1: And yeah, that's true of most global cities around the world, 551 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 1: but it still doesn't quite translate into the politics of. 552 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 2: Actually but if you look at the politics of cities, 553 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,280 Speaker 2: you will find that they are very pro migration. The 554 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 2: anti migrant sentiments are generally in the places which see 555 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 2: very very few migrants. But that's the world we're living 556 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 2: in now. And that's the great rift in the United States. 557 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,719 Speaker 2: It's the great rift that we saw with Brexit and 558 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,000 Speaker 2: that we're seeing actually across the European Union. And it 559 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 2: is very, very worrying. And so these are the challenges 560 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 2: that we need desperately, desperately to resolve and that takes 561 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 2: leadership ACTA. And this is the big problem that we 562 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,720 Speaker 2: don't have the honesty from leadership. We don't have that 563 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 2: courageous visionary person in leadership really that I can see 564 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 2: Antonio Guterrez perhaps you know, but he's not the leader 565 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 2: of a country who is speaking honestly about the crises 566 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 2: we face in climate, in migration, in poverty. We don't 567 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 2: hear it. 568 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 1: Well, you've tried to make a case for a global 569 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 1: body that oversees immigration worldwide. You brought up Antonio Gute 570 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 1: as the Secretary General of the United Nations. Should the 571 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: United Nations be doing this? And how in the hell 572 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 1: isn't going to get the powers to actually do this 573 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 1: across nation states sovereign states that so fight to keep 574 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,840 Speaker 1: that status of independence and spend so much money on 575 00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:58,719 Speaker 1: defense to ensure that stays. 576 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, Now, the United Nations, these bodies were set up 577 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 2: at a time of huge crisis, just after the Second 578 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 2: World War, when nations had been ripped apart, when millions 579 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 2: had been displaced, entire cities had been flattened. Leaders hated 580 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 2: each other, they'd literally just been at war with each other, 581 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 2: and yet they came together to produce these international bodies 582 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 2: that would eradicate the curse of smallpox and polio, that 583 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 2: would set out a declaration of human rights, all of 584 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 2: these things. They came together to do that, and that 585 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 2: was remarkable. And yes, you know that there are flaws 586 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 2: with that system. But where we are now, this planetary 587 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 2: scale of crises that cannot be solved by drawing imaginary 588 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 2: lines on maps. It needs a response that is also planetary, 589 00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 2: and I think that we need a United Nations that 590 00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 2: is a stepped up version. We are now our population 591 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 2: of more than eight billion people, resources are now more scarce, 592 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 2: and we're living in this extreme dangerous world of climate change. 593 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 2: And I think the only way we can deal with 594 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 2: planetary scale human mobility and climate crisis that's helping to 595 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 2: cause that is through a body that can help to 596 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 2: manage that. 597 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 1: Well, you joined the illustrious company of Kim Stanley Robinson, 598 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 1: who would also very much like the members of say, 599 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: the G twenty or the United Nations to actually act 600 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 1: like members of a body that has deeth to make 601 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: global policy work. Thank you, Gaya, Thank you, actually, it's 602 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 1: been such a pleasure talking to you. Thank you for 603 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 1: listening to Zero. And now for the sound of the week. 604 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,720 Speaker 1: That's the sound of a Canadian firefighting aircraft scooping water 605 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,840 Speaker 1: to fight the LA Fires. You can read more about 606 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 1: how those water bombing planes were quickly put into production 607 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: at bloomberg dot com slash Green. It's a fascinating piece. 608 00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 1: We'll also put a link in the show notes. There's 609 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 1: also a lot more coverage of the LA Fires from 610 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:29,959 Speaker 1: my colleagues. 611 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 4: At Bloomberg Green. 612 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 1: If you like this episode, please take a moment to 613 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 1: rate or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 614 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,320 Speaker 1: Share this episode with a friend or with someone who 615 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 1: loves jackets. You can get in touch at zero board 616 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,359 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's producer is Mike lee Raw, 617 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Head a podcast is Sage Barman and Head of 618 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 1: Talk is Brendan newnam Our. Theme music is composed by 619 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,799 Speaker 1: Wonderly Special. Thanks to Michelle ma Bryan Kahan, Sharon Chen, 620 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,239 Speaker 1: and Jessica beck I am Akshaldrati back soon.