WEBVTT - America’s Limits, Iran’s Leverage, Pakistan’s Moment: Maleeha Lodhi on a Shifting Order 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:14.680 Certainly the Middle East has changed forever. We are looking 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:17.560 at a very different world, not just because of the war, 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:21.400 but because the war has reinforced certain trends that were 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:22.320 already in play. 0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:28.440 Mali Ha Lothi, who's been one of Pakistan's top diplomats, 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:32.120 on power shifts and the role her country's playing. 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:38.360 It shows the advent and the importance of middle parts 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:41.559 that are now able to shape geopolitics. 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:47.000 So Pakistan, by playing this role of mediation, has established 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:51.520 itself as a middle par which has the capacity to influence, 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:55.560 if not shape, international politics. 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:04.280 From Blue Weekend, This is the Michelle Hussein Show. I'm 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:15.920 Michelle Hussein. After nearly six weeks of war, these last 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:19.400 few days have brought a moment of pivot, or at 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:23.200 least a potential one, as the United States and Iran 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:27.600 agreed to talk. The diplomacy that made it possible was 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.600 not led by one of the big powers or the 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:37.760 UN or Oman which mediated before, but by Pakistan. How 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:41.520 and why did that happen? What's the background to the 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:46.760 Islamabad summit and is there a reshaping of relationships under 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:50.880 way that we should all pay attention to As I 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:54.640 thought about these questions in recent days, the person I 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:57.800 wanted to hear answering them is a woman who was 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:02.880 Pakistan's ambassador to Washing twice and who also served her 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:07.560 country as ambassador in London and at the UN Before that. 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:13.160 Malihlothi was a newspaper editor, and as it happens, I 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:17.239 once interned for her way back as my very first 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:22.000 taste of journalism. At that time, I would barely have 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.880 had the courage to speak directly to her. She was 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:31.079 not Anna Winter, but she was exacting. In this conversation, 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:35.520 you'll hear her look beyond this crisis and beyond the 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:39.440 Middle East and South Asia, with observations on the United 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:42.959 States and also on where she differs with her own 0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:48.720 country's leadership. Our starting point was how Pakistan's role as 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:50.720 a peace broker came about. 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:57.680 I think Pakistan's military and civilian leaders were both working 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:01.960 the fams. Pakistan's army chief in particular, was on the 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:06.079 line to Washington at all times from what I hear, 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:09.160 especially in the last couple of days just before the 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:14.120 agreement was forged, and of course Pakistan's prime ministers on 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:18.400 the phone to the Iranian leadership constantly, and I think 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:22.799 the main thing that I understood was they never really 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:27.200 gave up, even when the situation looked very bleak, especially 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:30.040 when President Trump began to say what he said, and 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:32.040 I don't want to repeat all the things he said, 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:36.120 but at that time it wasn't clear whether you know, 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:40.600 that was just bluster or that was you know, statements 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:43.640 that would so offend the Iranians that they were just 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:44.680 call off everything. 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:49.080 You mean, the words about ending a civilization, Yes, this 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.440 kind of rhetoric. And did you in that period also 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:55.240 think how is this going to bear fruit? That this 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:57.280 situation is so extreme? 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:00.640 Well, yes, I think there was a point at which 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.760 it seemed that even the progress that we were learning 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:08.400 from Pakistani officials that was being made seemed to be 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.680 in jeopardy. So I thought that, you know, when President 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:18.040 Trump began to sound so frustrated and angry, actually I thought, 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:21.200 this is it, and the US will never agree to 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.560 the terms that the Iranians conveyed at the end. You know, 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:28.240 the famous ten points, the famous now because everybody knows 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:32.599 about them, because you know, initially the Americans rejected them 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.440 and said we don't accept them. But then as we've seen, 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:41.840 both sides actually walked back from their maximilist positions. Iran 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:43.559 did and so did the US. 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:46.479 And before we get to those points, I still want 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:49.919 to explore the relationships that Pakistan has both with the 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:53.680 United States, which you've seen in your own career over 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.599 multiple cycles, and with Iran. So, first of all, on 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:01.800 the US is the key to this personal relationship between 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:06.320 Phil Marshal Arsimonir and President Trump And how on earth 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:07.440 was that bond formed? 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:11.279 Well, very wet. So I think this personal relationship between 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:15.839 the two which really came about very early in President 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:20.160 Trump's second term, and it really started with the first 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:23.279 sort of early win that in a way Pakistan handed 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:27.560 it to him when it arrested and then extradited the 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:31.839 terrorist who was responsible for the bombing in Kabul during 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:36.320 the American evacuation from Afghanistan. I mean, I think President 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:39.679 Trump was so taken in by this gesture, by this action, 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.520 that he chose to mention this in his first address 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:47.600 to Congress, and then during the conflict between India and 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:52.080 Pakistan once that conflict was over and Trump played a 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:55.520 role in diffusing it. Pakistan, of course, you know by 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:59.160 a sidari leaders I should say, you know, kept saying 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:03.240 how grateful they were to President Trump, and then of 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:07.279 course announcing Nobel Peace Prize for him, which I personally 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.040 was a critic of. I wrote against it, I tweated 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:11.960 against him, and I said, why are we giving a 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:14.880 Nobel Peace prize to a man who has not exactly 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:18.200 been promoting peace around the world. But it seemed to 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.479 do the trick, and Trump became even closer to the 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:27.679 Pakistani leadership, particularly of course to Field Marshall, aarsimonyir. 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:31.400 That level of flattery, even of sequousness, some would say, 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:33.520 made many Pakistanis uncomfortable. 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:40.080 Well, yes, absolutely, because remember President Trump he'd attacked Iran 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:44.719 along with Israel around that time, on a little later 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:48.960 than that time, so clearly there was questioning about that decision. 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:53.520 But I think beyond that announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize, 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:58.239 there were also these sweetheart business deals that Pakistani leaders 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:03.520 were offering Trump. And in addition to that, Pakistan's offer 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:08.120 to open up the country for mining for critical minerals, 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:11.520 which they knew was really very high up on Trump's 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:15.040 agenda given the fact that the US had fallen behind China. 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.280 So I mean, I think if you put all of 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:22.080 that together, that went into the relationship that you know, 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.560 then helped Pakistan emerge as the mediator. 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:27.640 And let's talk about the other side of them, the 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.440 relationship between Pakistan and Iran, which has also been complex 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:35.240 at times, including relatively recently in twenty twenty four, when 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:39.320 the two countries were striking each other towards Iran's east 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:43.360 and Pakistan's west and saying that there were terrorists hideouts 0:07:43.400 --> 0:07:44.360 on each other's soil. 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:49.360 Yes, Michelle, you're absolutely right. The relationship with Iran has 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:52.680 been you know, up and down for the last couple 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:56.960 of decades, but also because of what you mentioned, the 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.800 exchange of missile strikes, with both countries accusing the other 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:06.920 of giving a safe haven, albeit unintentionally, to militants that 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:10.920 had threatened their security. So it really was after these 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:15.480 missile strikes when the two countries decided to mend fences 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:18.679 that I think the new relationship began to take shape. 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:22.600 And that's when we saw the two engaging very closely, 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:28.320 visitors coming to Pakistan from Iran, and then I think, 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:32.600 even more significantly, the way Pakistan stood in solidarity with 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:37.680 Iran last year when there was a joint Israeli American 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:41.000 attack actually to Israeli attack, and then the Americans joined 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.120 in the bombing. You would recall at that time, Pakistan, 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:46.440 I think, amongst all the Muslim countries, are probably the 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:51.080 most outspoken in expressing its solidarity with Iran, for which 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:55.240 Iranian leaders were very, very publicly grateful. And then that 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:58.840 was followed by a stream of Iranian visitors to Pakistan, 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:04.600 including mister Larajani, who was of course later assassinated. He 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.600 came to Pakistan, others came to Pakistan, so you could 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:10.920 see that the relationship was, you know, being strengthened by 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:14.840 all these visits and interactions, and you know, ultimately I 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:19.080 think the search for a mediator whom both countries could 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:22.559 have confidence in there really wasn't any other country. I mean, 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:25.439 the Arab country were ruled out. Oman had had their 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:29.600 fingers burnt, so Oman couldn't re emerge or didn't want to, 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.400 and then there was only really Pakistan and Turkey left. 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:38.640 And I think Pakistan, because of the personal factor, Turkey 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:43.160 didn't enjoy that sort of closeness with the Trump administration 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:44.719 that in Marshall, we needed it. 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.000 There's also been a bit of tighter walking hasn't there 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:51.760 for Pakistan in this period, in that it you know, 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:57.160 condoled over the killing of the Supreme Leader and also 0:09:57.400 --> 0:10:00.719 said to Iran that its attacks on the Gulf were regrettable. 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:03.720 I do also want to ask you about Pakistan's self 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:08.199 interest in this because in this last month, how badly 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:13.440 has the country been affected by the energy disruption? What 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.720 have you seen play out around you in Islamabad. 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.520 Look, this was very high stakes for Pakistan because of 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:24.040 the economic pain that Pakistan had begun to feel already 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:27.840 and could see that a protracted conflict would bring even 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:32.440 more economic pain. So although Pakistan didn't get into rationing 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:36.199 of oil, you didn't see cues at petrol pumps in 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:40.079 the capital or elsewhere, but you did see the spike 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.160 in the oil price. The government had to raise the 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.280 price of oil, and of course the government announced a 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:50.400 series of austerity measures because it wanted to conserve fuel. 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:55.319 Remember that Pakistan imports almost ninety percent of its oil 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:59.959 requirements from the Gulf countries. So again, if the conflict 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:04.839 had prolonged, the economic damage at a time, and when 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:07.400 Pakistani economy in any case, it's very fragile, very weak 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.400 within an IMF program. I mean it would have blown 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.559 our economy. Of course, if the war had continued. 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:18.040 And schools have been closed. It has been too expensive 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:20.560 for some people to get to work, so they've been 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:23.040 all kinds of hardships of that kind. What it means 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:27.680 for people's incomes. Let's talk then about this ten or 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:32.760 fifteen point plan. Iran is going into these talks with 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:38.440 very ambitious, some would say outlandish demands, and at the 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:40.880 same time President Trump is saying the military objectives have 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:42.560 been met. Well. 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.720 Right now, both sides have a narrative which says that 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:49.240 they've achieved their objectives, that they are they've been victorious. 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.080 Both sides are saying that. But I think both sides 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:56.840 know that their demands or conditions or terms for these 0:11:56.880 --> 0:12:01.480 negotiations are maximalist. So the question, and I think it's 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.320 hard to answer that question right now, is whether they 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:08.400 can find sufficient common ground. Because you know, Michelle, they 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:12.560 did find common ground when Oman was mediating, as the 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:16.720 Omani's foreign minister has said so many times, they were 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.840 close to a deal at that time, and then suddenly, 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:22.679 in the midst of negotiations, America decided to join Israel 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:28.640 and attacking Iran, so that part perhaps can be sort 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:30.920 of in a way, you know, they can go back 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.880 to that kind of an agreement. But the additionality is 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.920 provided by the Strait of Hormus because that now becomes 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.240 central to the negotiations. And there you can see the 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:45.720 positions are very far apart the Americans. I mean, President 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:48.880 President keeps changing his mind every few hours. If I 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.760 say it, he said this last time, it may change 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.640 in the next two days. I mean, I can't guarantee that, 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:57.760 but you know, he's saying he'd like to work with 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:01.160 it on to regulate or operate the Strait of hormones. 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:07.280 The Iranians are probably aghast at having to work with anybody, 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.520 but they're prepared to work with Alan. But they're saying, 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.120 we're going to charge fees now. I mean, this has 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:15.000 been a free ride, and we're going to charge fees 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.400 for whatever maritime traffic takes place through the strait. So 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:21.600 I think, you know, again maximilist positions. We don't know 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.280 the kind of agreement they'll reach because this now will 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.520 become very central to a comprehensive settlement. 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.480 We don't know how what kind of agreement they'll reach 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:37.160 or its chances of being anything lasting. I mean one thing, 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.880 for example, where we know there's a difference is on Lebanon. 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:45.800 Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabastarif saying Lebanon, the Israeli war in 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:49.959 Lebanon is part of this, and Israel saying very clearly that. 0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:53.920 It is not well. I think the bigger question is 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:58.880 whether Israel will sabotage the agreement, this ceasefire, So Lebanon 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:03.440 is only part of it. I mean, the major part 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:06.679 is it concerns the cease fire between the United States 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:11.160 and Iran. So if they were to sabotage it and 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:16.080 place spoiler in that by continuing attacks on Iran and 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:20.400 then sort of exposing Trump's inability if he's unable, that is, 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:26.000 or unwilling to constrain and restrain Israel, then we're looking 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.600 at a very complex and challenging situation. So I think 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:34.119 the key lies in Trump showing that he can restrain 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:38.240 it and yahoo he can control and contain Israel. That 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.160 is the big sort of question, I think, and we 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:42.520 don't have an answer to that yet. 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:47.160 So even though there are many unknowns in this, what 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.040 does your gut instinct tell you about the chances of 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:55.200 this process in Islamabad leading to something that averts a 0:14:55.280 --> 0:15:00.520 return to war, or even just bring some stuff ability 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:01.640 to the global economy. 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.120 But I'd like to be optimistic, and my optimism, I 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:09.440 think rests on firm ground because both sides know that 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:14.000 there is more economic pain for everyone, including themselves, if 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:18.160 there was a relapse into fighting. Both sides are in 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:21.040 a position right now to sort of proclaim that we've 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.120 achieved our objectives. They may not be able to do 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:28.480 that if there is again a recurrence of war. So 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:32.360 you know, that provides a strong incentive to both sides 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.800 to try to hammer out a deal. So, you know, 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:42.360 I hope my optimism pays off in the sense that, 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:44.040 you know, I hope they're able to arrive at a 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.600 settlement because they can't keep going to war every seven months. 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.560 I mean, they can, but I think the costs of 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:52.240 piling up have been piling up. 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:56.720 But also, Iran has really discovered its power, hasn't it. 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.200 Perhaps it always knew that its powers there and it's 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.960 everyone else who discovered it. But that dimension, the Strait 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:07.520 of Hormus, this uniquely placed part of the world, appears 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:11.600 to have been a dimension that the Americans did not fullesee, 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:13.040 did not think through at all. 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:17.480 Yes, absolutely, I think the Americans made several miscalculations, and 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.200 this was one of them. The other big mess calculation, 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:23.160 as you know, was the thought that the Iranians would simply, 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:26.560 you know, once their leaders had been decapitated or assassinated, 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:31.280 that the Iranian regime would just collapse. Didn't happen. So, 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:35.000 I mean there were a series of miscalculations, including the 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:39.400 fact that the Iranians would get so much leverage by 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:44.480 controlling the strait of hormones. So you know. But ultimately 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:48.520 and fundamentally, and I've written about this, the US historically 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:53.440 underestimates the power of nationalism. It's done that throughout history. 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.440 Did that in Vietnam, did that in Afghanistan, did that 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.560 in Iraq, and now did this in Iran. They really 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:04.400 thought that by attacking Iran, the people of Iran, the dissidents, 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:09.160 those who opposed the regime, will rise. You know, war 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:13.320 has the opposite effect. People close ranks, they forget the 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:18.040 internal differences. They come together because the strong force of 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:23.200 nationalism is what motivates them to become a more unified nation. 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.280 And that's exactly what happened. I mean even in Afhanistan. 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.199 I mean, Taliban weren't exactly the most popular people in 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:35.000 that country, and yet twenty years they managed to well, 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:38.159 if not defeat the United States, but prevent them from winning. 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.480 Is that what you hope that the United States learns 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:46.520 this time? Because you've worked with successive American administrations. You 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:49.600 were in the United States as Pakistan's ambassad whre nine 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:51.560 to eleven took place, which meant that you were there 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:57.000 when the Afghanistan engagement began, and that drew Pakistan into 0:17:57.040 --> 0:18:00.439 the US military and political orbit for many years, and 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.800 you would also have seen the start of what became 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:03.439 the build up to. 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:06.520 War in Iraq. Yes, you're right, I was there in Washington, 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:08.560 and I remember the early days after nine to eleven. 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:13.920 Of course, it was a tremendously horrific tragedy that befell America, 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:18.520 no question about that. But what my country's officials privately 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:20.680 told the Americans at that time in those early days 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:26.040 was that don't go and occupy Afhanistan. We understand you 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.600 want to take some kind of military action, but it 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:31.399 should be, in the words of the then president, short 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.920 and surgical. So he even said at that time, don't 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:39.000 become an army of occupation. Why, because you know, we 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.679 have experience in this region, and we know that people 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:47.320 will resist an outsider, they will resist foreign occupation, and 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.800 that's exactly what happened. Now, whether the US learns this lesson, 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:54.240 and it's such a paradox because here is a country 0:18:54.440 --> 0:18:58.200 where I've spent many years as a diplomat, which really 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:02.600 sort of takes pride in its own country, where people 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.320 are sort of flag waving, patriotic, sort of you know 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:09.159 what stories put on all of that, and yet they 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:13.000 don't understand that other countries have people who are equally 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:17.000 proud of their country and nationalists they want to protect 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:31.920 their country. 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:36.240 I do want to ask you to look a bit 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:40.560 further and whether you think this moment will mark the 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:46.080 start of a different world order where America has learned 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.880 that it can start wars, but they can spin out 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:53.240 of control and it can't control the economic fallout, and 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:58.800 where other regional dynamics and alliances shift as a result. 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:01.600 I mean hope that the lesson learned would be that 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:08.199 military supremacy doesn't achieve the outcome that is desired. I 0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:11.720 think the world in any case is moving towards a 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:15.480 more multipolar world, if I can put it that way, 0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:22.440 and that US dominance is fading, has been fading. I mean, 0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:26.159 the combined military might of the United States and Israel 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:30.880 took on a country that was militarily much much weaker, 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:34.800 whose allies in the region had also been weakened, and 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:38.440 yet that country resisted. Now what does that say. What 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:42.159 that says is that America's dominance, and the error of 0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:47.200 americans dominance in the region is basically over. It also shows, 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:50.840 I mean, in the case of my country and the 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:55.720 role Pakistan played, it shows the advent and the importance 0:20:56.040 --> 0:21:00.000 of middle paths that are now able to shape geopolitics. 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:05.560 So Pakistan, by playing this role of mediation, has established 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:10.040 itself as a middle power which has the capacity to influence, 0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:14.440 if not shape, international politics. 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:19.320 Is a loser in that though perhaps democracy in Pakistan 0:21:19.520 --> 0:21:21.840 in that the key player that we see in all 0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:25.600 of this is an unelected army officer. 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:29.600 Welcome to Pakistan. That's where we've beamed for a lot 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:33.280 of our history. And yes, I mean we have in 0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:36.800 place a hybrid government, which means that parer is shared 0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:40.040 between civilians and the military. And in this particular case, 0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:44.880 it was the military that was, you know, conducting much 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:46.760 of the diplomacy. I mean, you can't say that the 0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:49.159 Prime Minister wasn't involved. Of course he was. So the 0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:52.720 civilians were also, of course involved, but the driving force 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:58.000 was the Field Marshal and the military. That's the nature 0:21:58.040 --> 0:21:59.760 of politics and government in Pakistan. 0:22:00.680 --> 0:22:03.320 When you say you believe the era of American dominance 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:07.280 is over, just explain how you see that playing out 0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:09.399 in the Middle East. Because President Trump is saying he 0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:12.760 thinks that this could be the Golden age of the 0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:15.800 Middle East, and America has all these bases in the region, 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.520 what happens do you think in the long run or 0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:23.720 maybe even the medium term to those bases in the Gulf. 0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:26.720 Look, I mean when I say that the era of 0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:29.480 American dominance is over, I think they will be rethinking 0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:32.520 in the US about you know, what is the point 0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:36.159 of having thousands and thousands of US troops based in 0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:40.600 the region when they can't on their own determine what 0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:44.760 happens in the region. They can't shape the Middle East 0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:48.840 the way they wanted to even before. I mean Iraq 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.959 is something that you mentioned before. I mean, what did 0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:54.560 they do there? So I mean, it's been a process. 0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:57.399 It's not as if this war has brought it about. 0:22:58.119 --> 0:23:02.120 A process was already underway that US dominance over the work, 0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:05.560 actually not just the region, was beginning to be replaced 0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:10.320 by the fact that power was being dispersed amongst many 0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:15.560 in different places, not just one country being able to, 0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:18.600 you know, get the outcomes that it wanted. It could 0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:21.280 only get the outcomes that it wanted in cooperation with 0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:24.560 other countries, something that President Trump clearly doesn't believe in. 0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:27.280 So he decided to action ilaterally or I mean, of 0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:30.720 course he had a co partner in Israel, never consulted 0:23:30.720 --> 0:23:33.679 his allies. So I think, you know, we're looking at 0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:36.400 a very different world, not just because of the war, 0:23:36.840 --> 0:23:40.240 but because the war has reinforced certain trends that were 0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:41.160 already in play. 0:23:42.640 --> 0:23:44.320 But if there is one winner in all of this, 0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:47.199 would you say it was China? And to what extent 0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:50.800 do you believe it has been involved in bringing the 0:23:50.920 --> 0:23:51.639 summit about? 0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:54.760 Well, I think, I mean, there are reports that the 0:23:54.880 --> 0:24:01.080 Chinese eventually persuaded Iran, and they also played a role 0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:04.439 visibly communication with the United States. I have no idea 0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:08.359 about the veracity of these reports, but certainly when you 0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:12.359 say China is a beneficiary, yes, I think one could 0:24:12.359 --> 0:24:16.280 say that because what this entire episode has shown and 0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:22.320 highlighted is that America has an unstable leader who conducts 0:24:23.080 --> 0:24:28.119 unilatural policies and acts unilaterally. But China, on the other hand, 0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:31.080 is a force for stability in the world, and that's 0:24:31.080 --> 0:24:33.879 how they project themselves also, but it also happens to 0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:37.560 be true. I mean, more countries have trading agreements now 0:24:37.560 --> 0:24:40.840 with China. China is a bigger trading partner of most 0:24:40.880 --> 0:24:43.520 countries in the world. I mean I say that absolutely, 0:24:43.560 --> 0:24:47.920 It's absolutely accurate. The EU's largest trading partner is China. 0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:53.080 Many Asian countries' largest trading partner is China. India's largest 0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:56.840 trading partner is not the United States, it's China. So 0:24:56.920 --> 0:24:59.679 what does that say. It's what it says is that 0:24:59.800 --> 0:25:03.480 China is a force for peace, cooperation and stability. But 0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:06.440 as the US is being run by a man who 0:25:06.480 --> 0:25:10.360 conducts himself in such a whimsical manner and who has 0:25:10.440 --> 0:25:13.919 disrupted so much in the world global trade, and of 0:25:13.920 --> 0:25:17.200 course has been engaged in this in this war of choice. 0:25:17.840 --> 0:25:19.320 So the contrast is stunning. 0:25:20.840 --> 0:25:24.960 Painter picture then of the Gulf and South Asia. Say 0:25:25.200 --> 0:25:29.440 in three years time, I'm going to pick that timeframe. 0:25:30.480 --> 0:25:32.240 Do you think it is going to be a more 0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:37.320 settled place or do you think what has been unleashed 0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:41.840 this kind of instability is two amense for the situation 0:25:42.040 --> 0:25:44.119 to go back in the box that was in at 0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:44.880 the start of the year. 0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:48.800 Well, certainly the Middle East has changed forever. It will 0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:53.160 not be statusco anti at all. Things are not going 0:25:53.160 --> 0:25:55.439