1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480 Speaker 1: Hi, This is new due to the virus. I'm recording 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: from home, so you may notice a difference in audio 3 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: quality on this episode of News World. I was recently 4 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: intrigued by an article I read about a series of 5 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: earthquakes in the Ring of Fire, the volcanically and seismically 6 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,639 Speaker 1: volatile section of the Pacific. The runs from New Zealand 7 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: up through Indonesia and Japan, across the ocean to Alaska, 8 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,479 Speaker 1: and down the West coast of the Americas to Chile. 9 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: The Ring of Fire is really a ring of subduction zones. 10 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 1: Nearly all the earthquakes in the region are caused by 11 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: tectonic plates colliding with each other. The idea of the 12 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: really big one, a massive earthquake striking the West coast 13 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: there in States, could have a catastrophic effect on the 14 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: entire region. What are seismologists study and how will they 15 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: determine when it's going to happen. I'm really pleased to 16 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: welcome my guest, Harold Tobin, Professor of Earth and Space 17 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: Sciences at the University of Washington, the director of the 18 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Doctor job, and it's great to 19 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: have you here. How did you get involved studying earthquakes. 20 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: I was an undergraduate looking around for a major, like 21 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: so many kids at age nineteen or so, and just 22 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 1: on friends recommendation, I happened to take a geology course 23 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 1: or two and was interested in the subject, and that 24 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: actually led to a summer job working for the Forest 25 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: Service at Mount Saint Helens just a few years after 26 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: the big volcanic eruption, and I was an East Coast kid, 27 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: went to college in New England and flew out to 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: Washington and spent the summer at Mount Saint Helens, and 29 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 1: that just sort of blew my mind the idea that 30 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: not only was the Earth something that had this very 31 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: deep time history, but that it was actually active today. 32 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: And my whole interest really sprung from there and eventually 33 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: led to really trying to understand how plate tectonics really works, 34 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: and that led into studying earthquakes. Are you oocus largely 35 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: on the northern part of the Ring of Fire. My 36 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: specialty throughout my whole career has been on what we 37 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: call subduction zones, places in the plate tectonic system where 38 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: two plates collide with each other, and subduction zones are 39 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: really where the most of the action is in plate tectonics. 40 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: People have heard a lot about the mid Ocean ridges, 41 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: but the biggest earthquakes, the tsunamis, and a building of 42 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 1: coastal mountain ranges and everything all comes from subduction zones. 43 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: So I have worked here in the Pacific Northwest region, 44 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: but also spent a big chunk of my career working 45 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: in Japan and in Costa Rica, New Zealand, the Caribbean, 46 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: in the Barbados area, which is also a subduction zone. 47 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: People don't really necessarily know that the globe is surrounded 48 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 1: by these areas where plates converge, and I've studied quite 49 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: a few of them. Most of them are in these 50 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: coastal regions like the Pacific Northwest, like Alaska and the Aleutians, 51 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: or Japan. Tell us a little bit about this ring 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 1: of fire. The term the ring of fire is one 53 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: that maybe the geoscientists find a little bit oversimplified, but 54 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: the concept is pretty clear. The idea at surrounding basically 55 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: the Pacific Plate and the Pacific Ocean is a whole 56 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: series of these subduction zones or places where plates converge. 57 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: The ring of Fire name comes from the fact that 58 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 1: there's a volcanic activity at the cascades of the siving Northwest, 59 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: going right up into the Alaska an Illusian system. We 60 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: call it the Aleutian Arc because they're called arc volcanoes 61 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: down through Kamchatka and Japan, the Philippines and then ultimately Indonesia, 62 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: and all of that being kind of linked to basically 63 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: the motion of the plates that are the Pacific Ocean floor. 64 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: Now there's two parts to it. They're the volcanos, and 65 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: then towards the ocean plate from the volcanos is virtually 66 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: always a zone where these very large earthquake hazards exist. 67 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: The actual fault lines, or we think of them as plains, 68 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: because of course they are in the Earth. They're three dimensional. 69 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: But the planes that represent the faults between the two 70 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: massive chunks of the Earth's crust lock up and build 71 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: up stress over typically hundreds of years, and eventually get 72 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: to the point where they can create these earthquakes that 73 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: are really the largest on the planet. All the very 74 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: high eight magnitude earthquakes that the planet has ever seen, 75 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: at least since we've been recording them, have been at 76 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: these places where plates converge on each other. So that's 77 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: all part of the ring of Fire story the earthquakes system, 78 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: and coupled to it, but distinct from it the volcanoes, 79 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:25,040 Speaker 1: and so the earthquake system you're describing, basically, it's all 80 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 1: on the Pacific basion. That's the one that we referred 81 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: to as the Ring of Fire. But there are other 82 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: subduction zones on the planet. The Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles 83 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 1: Islands are another arc of volcanoes along South America, all 84 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: around the Pacific and Indonesia. There are other subduction zones 85 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: like the Himalayas that have converged with continental plates, and 86 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: even the collision of Africa and Europe has created the Alps. 87 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: That is a system that was a subduction zone and 88 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: has essentially come close to shutting down. It's not very 89 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: seismically active today, but it still has its remnants and 90 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: the Greek Islands are part of that as well. So 91 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: all around the world a where where two plates are 92 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: converging on each other. It's fascinating that plate tectonics was 93 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: initially rejected as a concept when first proposed in nineteen fifteen. 94 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: I think people found it sort of hard to believe it, 95 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,919 Speaker 1: although when you look at the map of Africa and 96 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: South America, it sort of begins to make some sense, 97 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 1: and then to look at the fossil record, it's very 98 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,919 Speaker 1: clear they were connected. Why is plate tectonics such a 99 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: huge breakthrough the concept of continental drift had actually been 100 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 1: around for hundreds of years before Vegner, and as soon 101 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: as there were decent maps of the Atlantic basin, people 102 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: recognized that kind of congruence between South America and Africa 103 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: and North American and Europe. So the idea had been floated, 104 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: and the fossil record was becoming understood also through the 105 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: early twentieth century. But the idea of the big chunks 106 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: of the Earth's crust actually moving around at that scale 107 00:05:58,400 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: was a really hard one for a lot of people 108 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,799 Speaker 1: to get their minds around. The debate that happened around 109 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 1: the time of Vegner, which is going back to the 110 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: nineteen teens and twenties, was basically he proposed that the 111 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 1: continents were drifting, but also that they were being dragged 112 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: along by this flow deep in the Earth's interior, and 113 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: there was a lot of objection, how could the plates 114 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: move that fast or that far and would the continent 115 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: see if they did move like that, wouldn't they sort 116 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: of plow their way through the ocean floor and break 117 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,119 Speaker 1: it up or something. People sort of pictured a ship 118 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: going through flows of icebergs, and there wasn't the evidence 119 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: for that. And the bottom line is nobody knew what 120 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 1: was at the bottom of the ocean right once you 121 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: went off shore, and that's three quarters of the planet's surface. 122 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: We didn't know anything about the geology in general. People 123 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: thought the ocean floor was the oldest part of the Earth. 124 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: It must be old because it had sunk down low, 125 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: it was cold, it was just accumulating sediment on top 126 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: for billions of years. It turns out the truth is 127 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: exactly the diametrical opposite of that, that the ocean floor 128 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: is the youngest part of the planet in general, and 129 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: the continent or the old stuff. The paradigm shift was 130 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: really that the continents don't drift through the oceans. The 131 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: Earth's crust and actually the upper part of the Earth's mantle, 132 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: what we call the lithosphere or the rocky outer shell 133 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: of the planet, is what's moving by being rafted along 134 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: by convection of what's below, and so we call it 135 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: plate tectonics because they're actually these things called lithospheric plates 136 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: you think of the Earth as having kind of an 137 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: eggshell like outer surface that's cracked, and they can move 138 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: relative to one another, and when they move, new lava 139 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: wells up in between. That's the mid ocean ridges, right, 140 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: So all the seafloor of the Atlantic Ocean that's tens 141 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: of millions of years old, or even one hundred million 142 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: years old. But the continents in general are billions of 143 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: years old. So the continents have been moving around, but 144 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: they're just part of a lithospheric plate, a larger plate. 145 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: So the North American Plate, for example, doesn't end at 146 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: the shoreline on the east coast. It extends all the 147 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: way out to the mid Ocean Ridge where Iceland sits. 148 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: I think that the big thing was that we had 149 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: to map out the ocean floor and get those samples. 150 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: It's a very classic case in science where ideas were 151 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: out there but the evidence to test them didn't exist. 152 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: And then a bunch of technological development happened at the 153 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,679 Speaker 1: same time, really around World War two, and soon after 154 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: one was mapping the ocean floor. And that happened because 155 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: of submarine warfare and ships that crossed back and forth 156 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: between in particular the US and the UK had instruments 157 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: to map out the sea floor that they total on 158 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: behind them, and also magnetometers to detect submarines. Turns out 159 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:36,839 Speaker 1: those magnetometers also detected properties of the rocks below quite unexpectedly, 160 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: and some scientists took advantage of that, Harry Hess and others. 161 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: The other thing that came along was the ability to 162 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: actually put a date on rocks, right. That's what we 163 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: think of as radiometric dating. Everybody's heard of radiocarbon, the 164 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: idea of using the isotopic decay to get ages. It's 165 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,559 Speaker 1: not all with carbon, because carbon actually is for relatively 166 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 1: young things that archaeologists date, but there are other elements 167 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: and rocks that can be dated. And so that got 168 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 1: developed between the nineteen forties and sixties so that we 169 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: could actually put a number on how old things were, 170 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: rather than just gas at how old things on the 171 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: planet are. And now that's developed into a very complex 172 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: system where we really understand the age of virtually every 173 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: major event that's happened on the planet for the past 174 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:39,959 Speaker 1: few billion years. Tell me about the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, 175 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network or PNSN. We are responsible 176 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: for the monitoring of earthquakes in the whole region of 177 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: Washington and Oregon. Essentially it extends as well into the 178 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: overlapping zones in northern California and offshore and even in 179 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: partnership with Canada. Our task is basically to detect earthquakes 180 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: to locate them. Earthquakes don't just come with a label 181 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: that's say what their magnitude is or where their epicenter 182 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 1: is located or anything like that. So we operate about 183 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty seismic stations across the region, and 184 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: of course we have counterparts in California and around the world. 185 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: There's a global seismic network and there are a whole 186 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 1: bunch of different agencies and groups that are actively monitoring 187 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: the planet for seismic activity. We've got the planet wired 188 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 1: up and we're listening to what it does all the time. 189 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: So the p and SN works in partnership with the 190 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: US Geological Survey. But that's our mission, is to monitor 191 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: for hazards in our region to understand what's happening. We 192 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: actually use the earthquakes to provide insight into those plate motions. 193 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: The earthquakes tell us about how the plates are moving 194 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: and in our region. Of course, that's really important because 195 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: we haven't had a really very large, damaging earthquake. There 196 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: are certainly earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, but we haven't 197 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: had one in historical time since Europeans came to this 198 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 1: region of the country. But we have fantastic evidence now 199 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: only recognized in the past twenty twenty five years or so, 200 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: that a magnitude nine scale earthquake, as big as anything 201 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 1: that's ever happened on the planet, took place about three 202 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty years ago. In fact, we know the 203 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: exact date that it took place, even though there's no 204 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: written record of it. From the Northwest. January twenty six, 205 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: seventeen hundred, at about nine to thirty in the evening, 206 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: there was a magnitude nine scale earthquake here in our region. 207 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 1: We know that'll happen again, but that's all through geological 208 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: sleuthing of various kinds. How do you know the exact 209 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: date if there's no record, Yeah, it's fantastic piece of 210 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: work that took place. There's a couple of key elements. 211 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: The first one was just a recognition that this area 212 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: is a subduction zone, so if you go back to 213 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties, because we hadn't seen a big earthquake 214 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: BacT we never see very large ones in recent times. Here, 215 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: a lot of people assume that it was a subduction zone. 216 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: This somehow didn't have big earthquakes. A few very clever 217 00:11:55,920 --> 00:12:00,199 Speaker 1: geologists looking around the coast recognized that there were two 218 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: key things along the coast. One was a lot of 219 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: areas of what they call ghost forests, big standing timber 220 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: along the coast of Washington, ore Vancouver Island that are 221 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,959 Speaker 1: all dead. When those were tree ring dated with pouring 222 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: out the stumps or the standing logs, it was recognized 223 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: that large numbers of them, and this is all the 224 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: way from Oregon, northern California up to Vancouver Island had 225 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: apparently died in the same year. The growth rings abruptly 226 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: end in exactly the same year, and that year was 227 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: seventeen hundred. In fact, it had to be the winter 228 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: between the growing season of the previous year and the 229 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 1: next year. And along with that they recognized the deposits, 230 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: just thin layers of sand from tsunamis, and tsunami deposits 231 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: were understood because every time there's been a tsunami in 232 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: recent history, people can go out on beaches and shore 233 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: areas and find these special sediment deposits that are characteristic 234 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: of tsunamis, and so those were recognized buried in the 235 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: soil along the coast, in the coastal marshes and estuaries. 236 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: So all of that led to the understanding that apparently 237 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: a very large earthquake had happened, had dropped the land down, 238 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: allowed the tsunami to flow over it, and the inundation 239 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 1: of salt water is what killed the trees. So all 240 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: of that gets us down to the year and then 241 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 1: kind of a chance discussion at a scientific conference between 242 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: some Pacific Northwest folks Brian Atwater here in Seattle and 243 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: his Japanese counterparts who were coming from Japan and knew 244 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: about the historical record in Japan of what they called 245 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 1: the Orphans Tsunami of seventeen hundred. That was a tsunami 246 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: that struck harbors in Japan, but no earthquake was known 247 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: at the time. An earthquake occurred, people didn't experience it, 248 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: but all of the sudden harbors were inundated with large waves, 249 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: and so that made it into the record because it 250 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: destroyed a lot of property along the coast. It was 251 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: written down in the various accounts of harbormasters. It was 252 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 1: very clear that that tsunami, because it had struck so 253 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: many places in Japan at such a large magnitude, had 254 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: to come from all the way across the Pacific Ocean, 255 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: and computer modeling show that it came from the northwest 256 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: region of the US, and that it had to be 257 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 1: about magnitude nine and exactly what day an approximately the 258 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: hour that it had occurred. Remarkable cross disciplinary and cross 259 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: national collaboration. It's a fabulous story. It's exactly how science 260 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: is supposed to work, right, but it takes a little 261 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: bit of serendipity in there too. Now, have the recent 262 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: events in the so called Ring of Fire been at 263 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: normal or is it about the normal pace that we 264 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: have better news coverage, there's no reason to think that 265 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: something strange is happening in Earthquakes are getting more prevalent 266 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: or something like that. On the other hand, interestingly, we 267 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: saw starting with the Indian Ocean and Sumatra earthquake in 268 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: two thousand and four, the so called Boxing Day earthquake, 269 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: which was about magnitude nine point two, caused that terrible tsunami, 270 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: and then the japan two and eleven tsunami, and one 271 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: from Chile that happened in twenty ten, and another fairly 272 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: large one more than magnitude eight in twenty fourteen. There 273 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: have been more magnitude nine scale earthquakes than there were 274 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: for a number of decades before that. You have to 275 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: go all the way from nineteen sixty four in Alaska 276 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: until two thousand and four, forty years elapsed on the 277 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: planet with no magnitude nines at all, and then we've 278 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: had two nines and an eight point eight since two 279 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: thousand and four, So there's a lot of interest and well, 280 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: are they somehow globally triggering each other or something going 281 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: on like that. Interestingly, though, if you go back, there 282 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 1: was a period from nineteen fifty two to sixty four 283 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: with a few magnitude nine earthquakes, then this long gap, 284 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: and if you go back before nineteen fifty two, there 285 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: was another long gap of several decades till nineteen twenties. 286 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: We really don't know whether that means that there's some 287 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: global kind of clustering of these very largest earthquakes on 288 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: the planet, or whether it's just that we have a 289 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: small number of events, since statistically it's possible for them 290 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: by random chance to have come kind of clustered in time. 291 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: That's a very much jury is still out kind of question. 292 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: The reason it's tough to study that is magnitude nines 293 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: are so rare. We've only had four or five of 294 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: them in the past one hundred and twenty years or 295 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: so on the whole planet. It's good that they're rare. 296 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: We just had the anniversary last week, the sixtieth anniversary 297 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: of the largest earthquake we've ever recorded that we've ever known, 298 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: the Chile earthquake of nineteen sixty, seems to be magnitude 299 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: nine point five. Remember that doesn't sound like a much 300 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: different number, but it's a logarithmic scale. The nine point 301 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: five is several times larger than a nine point two earthquake. 302 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: Activity is not changing because of anything that we're doing 303 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: to the planet, with some exceptions like induced seismicity in 304 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: Oklahoma that's a little bit of a different story. In 305 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: terms of these very large earthquakes, there's no evidence we're 306 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: affecting plate tectonics or that it's shifting in some way. 307 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: Both human time scales and geological time scales are just 308 00:16:48,440 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: so different, it's hard to have perspective geologic events really 309 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: occur as scale the humans, I think have a hard 310 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 1: time dealing with. But some of the most famous, of course, 311 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 1: the San Francisco earthquake, which wasn't that big an earthquake 312 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: by the standards you're describing, but apparently hit the city 313 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: at the right moment when I was at the right 314 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: level of development, and caused enormous statage. It's probably the 315 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 1: most famous earthquake in the United States, absolutely, the Cascadia 316 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: subduction Zone, the Pacific Northwest earthquake I just talked about, 317 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: was probably forty times larger in terms of its earthquake 318 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 1: energy than the San Francisco earthquake. That one was around 319 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 1: seven point eight seven point nine, probably the San Andreas Fault. 320 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: It's shallow in the Earth's crust and runs right through 321 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: the city of San Francisco. The earthquake was much closer 322 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: to where the population center was at the time. It 323 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: shook violently, probably shook for two and a half minutes 324 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 1: or something like that, and most of us who have 325 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 1: experienced an earthquake measured in a few seconds. Sometimes it's 326 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: over by the time you realize it's an earthquake, and 327 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: then something like that going on for minutes just must 328 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: have been a mind boggling experience, and it did a 329 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: huge amount of damage. Structures were not built with seismic 330 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: safety and mind in those times, and also the fire 331 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 1: did even more damage than the earthquake because there was 332 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: really not any way to control them after that event. 333 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: Wasn't it the Tokyo earthquake that really led to the 334 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: dramatic improvement in learning how to build build agent would 335 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: survived earthquakes. It's nineteen twenty three. We call it the 336 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 1: Content earthquake, and it struck Tokyo and Yokohama did just 337 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: immense damage, makes the San Francisco event even look relatively small. 338 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: Tokyo was already a big city. Of course at that time. 339 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: Something like a third of the city was wiped out 340 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: and hundreds of thousands of people were killed. Unfortunately by 341 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: that earthquake. That did really provide an impetus from massive 342 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,439 Speaker 1: scale of development of both the science of seismology and 343 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: the distribution of seismometers and also the building codes. They 344 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 1: rebuilt the city in ways that would be much more resilient. 345 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 1: Japan gets the reminders very often. There are a lot 346 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: of earthquakes there, and so the building practices in Tokyo 347 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 1: and around Japan to this day are actually much more 348 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: stringent and really honestly much better for seismic safety than 349 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: anywhere in the US, including San Francisco, in LA and Seattle. 350 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: So despite the efforts over the last twenty or twenty 351 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: five years in California, there's still not up to the 352 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: Japanese standard. California, I mean, it has done a fantastic job. 353 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 1: There are great seismic codes, and if a very large 354 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: earthquake nineteen oh six happened today, I'm sure we would 355 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,640 Speaker 1: see casualties and loss of property, but we wouldn't see 356 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: the kind of loss of life that happened back then. 357 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 1: There's sort of two standards for building codes. One is 358 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: essentially survivability. Can you get through the earthquake in that 359 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: building without it collapsing and killing everyone in it. There's 360 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,360 Speaker 1: another level of standard, though, which is a resilience standard 361 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: that says is the building going to be usable after 362 00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 1: the earthquake. In general, large structures in Japan built to 363 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 1: that usability standard where maybe the power goes out for 364 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: a while or whatever, but basically, soon after the earthquake, 365 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: you're up and running, your economy is going, people can 366 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: go about their business. For the most part, our structures 367 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: in the US are built in such a way that 368 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: you probably wouldn't get killed by the earthquake, but the 369 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: building might have to come down afterwards because it'll be 370 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: structurally damaged. And that's a big difference in standard And 371 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 1: of course it costs money to do it, but it's 372 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,640 Speaker 1: another case, like so many other things, of money spent 373 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: upfront saves a lot of money in the recovery. That's 374 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: interesting though, to draw that distinction in terms of how 375 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 1: we design it. When you visit friends in southern California, 376 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: they inevitably talk about the Big One. But is the 377 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 1: Big One as implausible as the other kind of geologic 378 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 1: events we're talking about, or is there really an inherent 379 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: tension in the earth across southern California makes it potentially 380 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:56,199 Speaker 1: susceptible to a pretty large earthquake. Absolutely, yes, there is. 381 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: There's no reason not to think that the southern San 382 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: Andrea's fault will have a large earthquake, most likely over 383 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: the span of sometime in the next few decades. The 384 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 1: probabilities of a significant earthquake. If you take the San 385 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: Andreas Fault and put the Bay Area in southern California together, 386 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: it's in the next thirty to fifty years it's virtually 387 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: certain that something larger than magnitude seven will occur. The 388 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: southern San Andreas Fault hasn't had a really massive earthquake 389 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 1: since the mid eighteen hundreds, and eighteen fifty seven's called 390 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 1: the Fourth to Own earthquake was the last really big 391 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: one on the southern San Andreas Fault, probably larger than 392 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: magnitude eight. There is great geological evidence that these happen periodically, 393 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 1: and that the span of time that's elapsed since the 394 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: last one is longer than the average span of time 395 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: between earthquakes. Notice the way I said that, I didn't 396 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 1: say it's overdue. And that's a charged term that we 397 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 1: have trouble using because they don't come in regular lock step. 398 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 1: Earthquakes can come ten years apart and then go a 399 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 1: few hundred years in between on a given fault. It's 400 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: a probability kind of game, though, right these are statistical things. 401 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: I can't tell you if the San Andreas is going 402 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 1: to have an earthquake tomorrow or forty years from now, 403 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 1: I can say that in this century it's virtually certain 404 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: to happen. But is the fault you're dealing with there 405 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: a different kind of tension than you get out of 406 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: the plates moving, or is it a function of being 407 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: at a break point for the plate? It is still 408 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: absolutely a function of being at the edges of two 409 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: plates where they come together. There are different kinds of 410 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 1: plate boundary faults. I describe the ones where one plate 411 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 1: slides underneath the other one. That's the subduction zone fault, 412 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: and so the plates are converging on each other. The 413 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 1: San Andreas is a fault where the plates are moving 414 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 1: side by side, so horizontally displacing. If you look at 415 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: a map of California that shows the topography, you can 416 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,640 Speaker 1: actually pretty clearly see the line of the San Andreas 417 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: through the crust. So where La sits is sliding northward 418 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: at a rate of about two inches per year. Two 419 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 1: inches not much, right, but in fact it's gotten to 420 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 1: the point where it's measurable over time. Over the past 421 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: couple of decades, the precise GPS position of points on 422 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: the ground has changed in La relative to east of La. 423 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: Out in the California Mountains. Some parts of the world 424 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: actually had to make adjustments to survey lines in order 425 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: to account for plate tectonic motions. So the plates are 426 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: moving across the San Andreas Fault. The west side is 427 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: moving northward relative to the east side, and at the boundary. Unfortunately, 428 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: they don't just slide smoothly. They're stuck together. The big 429 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: plates move, but it accumulates that strain because of the 430 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,640 Speaker 1: friction that just holds the rocks together. Imagine the analogy 431 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,880 Speaker 1: of taking a really heavy piece of furniture and trying 432 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: to push it across the floor. You push and push, 433 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: and nothing happens. Then finally it kind of lurches when 434 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: it breaks loose. Right, That's exactly what's going on frictionally speaking, 435 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 1: in a major fault in the earth. That's amazing. It 436 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: seems to me like you have enough different things to 437 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: look at that you will spend the rest of your 438 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: career endlessly discovering all sorts of new things, which very 439 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: rich field. It's a young field, and there's absolutely no 440 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: shortage of things to work on. We have so many 441 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: mysteries and how the earth really works, but we're simultaneously 442 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: discovering more and more things about them all the time. 443 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: This time right now is a fantastic time I think 444 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: to be an earth scientist, to be a seismologist or 445 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 1: a geologist, because we have so many new ways of 446 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: acquiring data. We have digital tools ranging from satellite measurements 447 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: and stuff like the GPS to really sophisticated laboratory tools 448 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: for looking at how rocks actually work or what the 449 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 1: nature of friction is between the boundaries of the rocks. 450 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: We're always advancing our study of how faults behave and 451 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: how they work. And then the Earth is also always 452 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: giving us more and more examples. There's always a new 453 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: earthquake to study somewhere in the world, and earthquakes are 454 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 1: going on all the time. Big ones are relatively rare, 455 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 1: but small ones happen constantly. There are tens of thousands 456 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 1: of earthquakes of magnitude three and four on the planet 457 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: in a given year. We never run out of stuff 458 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: to work on, that is for sure. Listen, I want 459 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: to thank you. This has been a really fun conversation. 460 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: I've really enjoyed the opportunity to talk about all these things, 461 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: and I hope that your listeners learn something and then 462 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: go out and explore more. And now I'll answer your questions. 463 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: Daniel Kay from California Rights. What politically and practically do 464 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 1: we do to punish the Chinese in a way that 465 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 1: hurts them. Well, there's a lot we can do it. 466 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: First of all by joining Australia and other countries and 467 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,639 Speaker 1: shining a light on their guilt and their responsibility for 468 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: allowing this virus to go out or lying to the world. 469 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,879 Speaker 1: We can also soothe them for reparations or demand them 470 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: diplomatically for reparations. We can basically take all of the 471 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 1: US Treasury notes that they've got and impound them until 472 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 1: we had done working out reparations. We could also, I think, 473 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: establish new rules for dealing with their economy. Man, we 474 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 1: can certainly provide a huge incentage for American companies to 475 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: move out of China so we're not helpless. So a 476 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 1: lot of things we can do to make sure that 477 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: China realizes that the communist dictatorship did something really wrong 478 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 1: and we're not going to tolerate it. William R. From 479 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 1: Georgia Rights. You signed a book for me about four 480 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: to five years ago in Woodstock, Georgia. We'll be back, 481 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 1: I sure, hope so, Holsten, I love coming back to 482 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: the bookstore there in Woodstock. It's one of our favorite places, 483 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,399 Speaker 1: and I'm really happy to sign a book for you 484 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 1: anytime and mail it to you. Thank you to my 485 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 1: guest Harold Tobin. You can read more about The Ring 486 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 1: of Fire on our show page at Newtsworld dot com. 487 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,640 Speaker 1: News World is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia, 488 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 1: our executive producers Debbie Myers and our producers Darnsyself. The 489 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Pember Special 490 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingwish three sixty. Please email 491 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,919 Speaker 1: me with your questions at gingwish three sixty dot com 492 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: slash questions. I'll answer them in future episodes. If you've 493 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 1: been enjoying its work, I hope you'll go to Apple 494 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 1: Podcasts and both rate us with five stars and give 495 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about. 496 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 1: On the next episode of Newsworld. The epicenter of the 497 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 1: coronavirus outbreak in the US is in New York, and 498 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 1: in particular New York City. New York has over three 499 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty seven thousand cases and over twenty nine 500 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 1: thousand people have died. Was there a failure of state leadership? 501 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 1: Started on Governor Cuomo to slow this virus. I'm new English. 502 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: This is news work