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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Today, we're going to get back to meat and potatoes,

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Speaker 2: and that, of course means equity strategy. Julian Emmanuel's definitive

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Speaker 2: what you don't know inside Global Wall Street Baseball Working

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Speaker 2: for Ed Heyman, he's got the advantage of the whole

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Speaker 2: evercore ISI game. But what's important is he puts out

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Speaker 2: a note every morning on the earnings season and how

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Speaker 2: we're doing. We have them for an extended conversation this morning, Julian.

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Speaker 2: That research note you put out, how are we doing

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Speaker 2: on revenue and earnings growthiness and surprises.

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Speaker 3: Let's call it good, not great sort of, you know, uh,

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Speaker 3: double digit close, you're nudging towards double digit. There's a

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Speaker 3: hope that by the end of the season that we'll

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Speaker 3: be right there. Revenue solid, you know, nudging towards five percent,

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Speaker 3: which is pretty darn good, but in general it's probably

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Speaker 3: less than expected. We kind of thought that the surprises,

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Speaker 3: and the biggest aspect is the strengthen the dollar that

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Speaker 3: sort of dampened and you're certainly seeing in a commentary.

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Speaker 3: But again with the dollar, the question here is what's

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Speaker 3: the sense of permanence.

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Speaker 2: You get to stand at the table with Ed Hymen.

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Speaker 2: He's got the black Charby and he's marking up you know,

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Speaker 2: the famous Ed Hymen reports. Do you and mister Hymen

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Speaker 2: extrapolate out this earnings excellence.

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Speaker 3: We do for US twenty twenty five looks like it's

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Speaker 3: going to be in the neighborhood of ten percent double digit.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's Wall Street, That's right, exactly, So, Julian, I mean,

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Speaker 4: you know, for the longest time, technology has been the

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Speaker 4: driver of this market. Can we still expect technology broadly

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Speaker 4: defined to lead this market higher?

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Speaker 3: Well, we think the answer broadly is yes. But just

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Speaker 3: getting back to earnings for a moment. The positivity around

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty five is that and we started to see

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Speaker 3: this happen at the end of twenty twenty four. Is

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Speaker 3: the other four hundred and ninety three stocks in the

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Speaker 3: S and P five hundred have started contributing to positive

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Speaker 3: earnings growth, and that's something we expect but on balance,

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Speaker 3: when you think about how bull market sort of evolves,

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Speaker 3: and you think about the stages of a bull market,

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Speaker 3: and what we've.

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Speaker 5: Yet to see is that stage.

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Speaker 3: Of capital markets enthusiasm and element of emotion and fomo,

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Speaker 3: which happens towards the latter stages of every bull market

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Speaker 3: that tends to be led by technology the leaders, and

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Speaker 3: we think we'll get there at some point.

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Speaker 4: We had some pretty good performance in January coming out

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Speaker 4: of some of the European markets, which typically lagged the US.

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Speaker 4: So it's suggest that maybe some of the non tech

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Speaker 4: aspects of the market, maybe some investors looking for value

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Speaker 4: in January. Is that something that's got some legs?

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Speaker 5: Do you think so?

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Speaker 3: To us, that is a geopolitical dependence right there. There's

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Speaker 3: no question about the fact that given the really the

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Speaker 3: runaway moving the dollar into the end of last year,

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Speaker 3: we started getting questions from longer term value investors, is

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Speaker 3: it time? When's it time to start shifting? And we've

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Speaker 3: seen that we think you're going to need the catalyst.

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Speaker 3: The dollar has started to stabilize, which is a positive,

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Speaker 3: but we think that you're going to need to see

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Speaker 3: a little bit more of a geopolitical catat.

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Speaker 2: Okay, you go back to the thirteen hundred, so the

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Speaker 2: fourteenth century. That's when Ed Heyman was writing for CJ. Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: You use the word repetitively of all these worries out

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Speaker 2: there of unlikely, it's unlikely the Fed is going to

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Speaker 2: screw up, it's unlikely we're going to see this, it's

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Speaker 2: unlikely we're seeing. Explain to us that how we should

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Speaker 2: handle all these unlikelyes. We're juggling every day. There'll be

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Speaker 2: a new one tomorrow. I don't know what it's going

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Speaker 2: to be.

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Speaker 3: Well, if you look at the headlines, there was a

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Speaker 3: new one about twelve hours ago at the press press

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Speaker 3: conference between President Trump and.

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Speaker 2: Now do with the unlikelies, we're drowning.

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Speaker 3: And what we do is what we've done for a

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Speaker 3: number of years now, and try and parse out the

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Speaker 3: noise as much as possible and concentrate on the fact that,

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Speaker 3: as you said moments ago, we're going to have close

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Speaker 3: to double digit earnings growth and all those stocks are

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Speaker 3: expensive valuation alone.

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Speaker 5: It does not end the ball mark.

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Speaker 2: Buried in your note Hymen doesn't get down to the

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Speaker 2: bottom of the Julian Mmanual note it's just too long

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Speaker 2: and too dense. You go right at share buybacks, explain

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Speaker 2: to us, I mean forget about Apple, there's others share

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Speaker 2: buybacks and Coopertino right.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, So when you think about buybacks and you think

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Speaker 3: about this world we're living in of uncertainties and likelies

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Speaker 3: and unlikelies, the question is, how do you manage an

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Speaker 3: environment where, by definition, you're going to have greater volatility? Okay,

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Speaker 3: and even if we didn't have this political environment, at

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Speaker 3: these valuations, you're likely to have greater volatility. The answer

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Speaker 3: is you want to own companies that can buy back

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Speaker 3: their shifts, because that defines the concept of volatility managed on.

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Speaker 2: A Wednesday in New York. The nights are good. Just

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Speaker 2: the sun is setting later. Yes, I'm losing how that

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Speaker 2: is like after five pm. We welcome all of you

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Speaker 2: across nation on your communites. Good morning on Apple, Carblay,

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Speaker 2: Good morning on Android, Auto, Google out with Earninge's Lisa

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Speaker 2: nailed that. We'll talk about that here in a moment,

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Speaker 2: and we say good morning on YouTube as well. Subscribe

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg Podcast. They mentioned podcasts three times in the

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Speaker 2: Google bellt yester. They didn't mention us no, I kept

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Speaker 2: I kept. Sorry, I sat there with a beverage of

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Speaker 2: my choice. Imoy, come on, mentioned Blueberg's surveillance.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they didn't growing, Julie, how do you feel about

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Speaker 4: valuation in this marketplace? I mean, you can make the

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Speaker 4: argument that this is really rich market. Now if I

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Speaker 4: pull out the mag seven maybe less so should I

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Speaker 4: be concerned about that?

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Speaker 5: You should be concerned about that?

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Speaker 3: And actually, for us, virtually every conversation we have with

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Speaker 3: clients basically starts with walk us through the parameters evaluation.

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Speaker 3: And my concern with the evolution of the bull market

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Speaker 3: is when that stops being question number one or two,

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Speaker 3: then we're going to be concerned. But look, there's no

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Speaker 3: getting around the concept of history, and we are not

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Speaker 3: believers of the idea it's different this time.

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Speaker 5: You can make a.

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Speaker 3: Lot of cases for why it could be, but we

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Speaker 3: are at, you know, the highest levels of valuation in

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Speaker 3: the last number of decades.

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Speaker 4: How important is the discussion around the Federal Reserve this

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Speaker 4: year because there's a lot of questioning whether they even

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Speaker 4: cut at all this year, and perhaps there's a rate

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Speaker 4: hike some point of the year, So the Fed call

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Speaker 4: seems a little less clear these.

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Speaker 5: Days, which actually makes it less important.

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Speaker 3: Okay, well so, so from our point of view, this

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Speaker 3: is a do no harm type environment, and by do

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Speaker 3: no harm that means no hikes. And we actually do

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Speaker 3: not believe that. If you're Jay Powell and you know

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Speaker 3: your term is off in twenty twenty six, the one thing.

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Speaker 5: You've got to do is deliver the.

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Speaker 3: Soft landing to the country, and sticky inflation will not

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Speaker 3: be Jay Powell's problem in twenty twenty five or twenty six.

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Speaker 5: It will be the administrations broum.

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Speaker 2: You can't see this on radio, but on YouTube you

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Speaker 2: can see a little birdie on my right shoulder whispering

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Speaker 2: into my sony headphone. Chairman Imen me if if if

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Speaker 2: Jerome goes down to be a governor, Paul, there's certain

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Speaker 2: music to chairman of Heim running a FED press What

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Speaker 2: would what would hymen FED press conference be?

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Speaker 6: Like?

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Speaker 2: You know, and don't ask a follow up.

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Speaker 4: Question exactly, So, Julian, how long can how long can

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Speaker 4: bull markets last?

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Speaker 2: Here?

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Speaker 4: I mean kind of give us a sense of where

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Speaker 4: we are kind of in the history here.

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Speaker 3: It's relatively young, okay by historical standards. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 3: the the average bull market goes out, you know, four

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Speaker 3: plus years, and we're really only starting year three right now.

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Speaker 3: So from that perspective, and also in terms of the

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Speaker 3: absolute gain, we're still really almost you know, basically mid range.

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Speaker 4: But you had twenty three, twenty four, both of those

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Speaker 4: years at s and P five hundred, uh give you

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Speaker 4: more than twenty percent returns. How do you think about

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Speaker 4: a year three in that scenario? So I mean three pete,

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Speaker 4: I mean the you know, coach Riley has the patent

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Speaker 4: on three P, but can we threepeat it?

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Speaker 3: Why Coach Riley may not have the patent on threepeat?

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Speaker 3: If Andy Reid brings home a win on Sunday, he's

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Speaker 3: going to Kansas.

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Speaker 4: It's a deal with the NFL.

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Speaker 2: There you go, we got we got Fred, Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much. He goes to breakfast between Chapel Hill and

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Speaker 2: Duke like the how what is the distance? Eleven ten

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Speaker 2: ten miles? Or so Fife waffle House is doing a

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Speaker 2: surch charge and eggs at the she Whaff in Durham,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina two seven seven one three. I mean, what

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Speaker 2: does that hyman say about this inflation fere out there?

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Speaker 2: Or do we actually have a quiescent disinflationary vector.

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Speaker 3: Well, I can say this having lived many years in

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Speaker 3: Atlanta and environs. It brings a tear to my eye

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Speaker 3: to think about paying an incremental costed waffle se.

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Speaker 5: Whaff very very good. Three AM visits.

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Speaker 2: Say, you know, I've never been in a waffle house

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Speaker 2: before midnight to play music down there, and there's the

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Speaker 2: only thing that was opened. Yeh, but cracker bill, the

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Speaker 2: burrel to crack shot.

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Speaker 5: That shuts out.

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Speaker 2: That's a family institution there. But I mean, that's a

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Speaker 2: pernicious inflation that people fear.

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Speaker 3: No question, and in all seriousness, let's let's step back

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Speaker 3: and think about this. Which is why the geopolitical dynamics

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Speaker 3: are so interesting and sort of unpredictable at this point,

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Speaker 3: is because President Trump was elected in large part because

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Speaker 3: of the American consumers disquiet with inflation. And this is inflation.

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Speaker 2: One more question. The hallmark of Eddiman's work is a

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Speaker 2: respect for engineering and technology. It's carried that for decades

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Speaker 2: and decades. Does your shop believe in the effervescence the

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Speaker 2: persistence of AI and Meg seven and big tech? You can't.

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Speaker 2: You gotta own it, right, we.

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Speaker 3: Do, no question about it. And again that goes back

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Speaker 3: to Eds roots as an MIT grad. But from our perspective,

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Speaker 3: what we've seen in the last couple of weeks with

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Speaker 3: the evolution of deep seek is actually, if anything, going

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Speaker 3: to accelerate adoption. And that's the key corporate America accelerating

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Speaker 3: adoption of AI. We as consumers are already there the

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Speaker 3: same way we were the Internet in the early nineties

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Speaker 3: before it hit desktops in corporate America.

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Speaker 2: Chairman, I can just see it.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it just rings true.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, can we start a roomor here

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Speaker 2: right now? Good morning, mister Powell. Thank you for he

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Speaker 2: uses as Bloomberg every day. I don't know if Ed

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Speaker 2: wouldn't use be at the Eccles building with a sharpie

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Speaker 2: in his head mark it up, PhD Papers, Julian Emmanuel,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much working it evercore Isi.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am e'stern Listen on

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Mona Mahajan on MEGS seven. It's got legs. AI as legs.

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Speaker 7: It certainly has legs. It's a long term holding, but

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Speaker 7: this year could be volatile, so we've already seen a

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Speaker 7: bit of that. Keep in mind, this is not only

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Speaker 7: a cohort that got a little bit of an extension

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Speaker 7: on the valuation front, but now is also facing threats

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Speaker 7: like competition from China and other players like tariffs as well.

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Speaker 7: And you know, some of the retaliation we saw from China,

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Speaker 7: for example on Apple already weighing on some of the

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Speaker 7: mag seven as well. So keep in mind this is

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Speaker 7: a year that we want to remain diversified across sectors,

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Speaker 7: across asset classes, large cap and mid cap, growth and value.

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Speaker 4: So what are you seeing just out of earnings because

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Speaker 4: you know, one of the themes coming that twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: five is we're not going to get a whole lot

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Speaker 4: from the Fed this year, probably one maybe two rate

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Speaker 4: cuts at best, So it really has to be earnings

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Speaker 4: that have to deliver if this market's going to move higher.

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Speaker 4: How do you guys think about that?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a great call out because S and P

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Speaker 7: returns are really a combination of valuation expansion plus earnings growth.

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Speaker 7: Valuation expansion, as we just highlighted, probably not going to

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Speaker 7: contribute all that much maybe even a little bit of

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Speaker 7: negative contribution in some sectors. So earnings growth will be

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Speaker 7: the driver of returns. We continue to see ten to

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Speaker 7: fifteen percent earnings growth this year. Of course, that is

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Speaker 7: predicated on a consumer that continues to hold in there.

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Speaker 7: Labor market will see on Friday that continues to remain

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Speaker 7: resilient as well in the US economy. That you know,

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Speaker 7: I looked at Atlanta GDP now three point nine percent.

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Speaker 2: Well maybe with at the margin, do you sell MAG seven?

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Speaker 2: I don't hear you saying that.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, we think you could do a little

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Speaker 7: bit of rebalancing. If you know, if you're MAG seven

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Speaker 7: and your tech has gotten an outsized way in your portfolio,

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Speaker 7: you may want to rebalance that with the other sectors.

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Speaker 7: But generally we're in the camp of complementing. We want

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Speaker 7: to make sure it's me.

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Speaker 2: You got to go to Wharton. What a god's thing

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Speaker 2: is complimenting?

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Speaker 7: Well, you know, if you owned all largely tech and

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Speaker 7: AI in your portfolios, you actually did pretty well the

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Speaker 7: last couple of years. We think the way you do

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Speaker 7: well in twenty twenty five in the next couple of

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Speaker 7: years is you have to own growth and value. So

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Speaker 7: you want to make sure not only tech sectors, you

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Speaker 7: have industrials in their financials, healthcare, you know, mid cap

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Speaker 7: stocks as well, bonds.

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Speaker 4: What do you do with tariffs? Is that even come

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Speaker 4: into your calculation or anach safe? Boy, that's noise. I'm

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Speaker 4: just not going to worry about it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: You know, Look, the tariff uncertainty has weiight on this market,

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Speaker 7: no doubt. And we know the old adage markets don't

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Speaker 7: like uncertainty, and this is a source of you know,

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Speaker 7: will it happen, will it not happen. What I will

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Speaker 7: say is there was a probably a growing fear over

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Speaker 7: the weekend when we were thinking about twenty five percent

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Speaker 7: tariffs on our biggest trading partners. Now that was walked

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Speaker 7: back on Monday, and we did seem to view tariffs

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Speaker 7: more as a negotiating tool after that. So we got

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Speaker 7: some concessions from the border from our na bring you know,

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Speaker 7: economies on the north and south, which I think provided

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Speaker 7: a bit of relief for the markets and the broader

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Speaker 7: economy as well.

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Speaker 2: What do you here feel the emotion of Edward Jones

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Speaker 2: clients across this nation.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and great call out by the way, Edward Jones

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Speaker 7: now nine million households across the US. We are in

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Speaker 7: every county except.

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Speaker 5: One in Texas.

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Speaker 7: We're trying to get that county. Yeah, we have yep,

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Speaker 7: we are really have our eyes and ears on the

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Speaker 7: average and the mood. You know, I will say there's

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Speaker 7: parts of the country that are feeling a little more optimistic.

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Speaker 7: This is an economy, as we've talked about, the labor

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Speaker 7: market is held up. The economy is doing okay. Inflation

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Speaker 7: is a concern, and that is still a concern. And

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Speaker 7: you know it's tough because we went from a nine

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Speaker 7: percent inflation rate. We are back to you know, two

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Speaker 7: point nine percent on headline CPI, but that's still year

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Speaker 7: over your growth. Your prices are still going up, albeit

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Speaker 7: at a slower pace of growth. And so this is

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Speaker 7: probably the dichotomy between lower income and that mid and

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Speaker 7: upper income household. Mid and upper income they have participated

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Speaker 7: in growing stock market, even their houses are starting to

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Speaker 7: show some signs of life as well house prices and

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Speaker 7: so there yeah, un for the mortgage hopefully, and you

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Speaker 7: know this is they're feeling okay with their wealth creation

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Speaker 7: that's happened over the last couple of years. So we

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Speaker 7: want to be mindful of both ends of the spectrum,

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Speaker 7: but economy is really driven by that mid and upper

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Speaker 7: income consumer fixed income.

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Speaker 5: What do we do here?

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Speaker 4: I mean, again, to your treasury four point two percent,

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Speaker 4: that's not a bad way to make a living. Do

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Speaker 4: I take some credit risks or.

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Speaker 5: How do you think of that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: You know, so within your investment grade portfolio, we continue

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Speaker 7: to feel like you could add a little bit of

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Speaker 7: duration here, even at four and a half percent slightly

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Speaker 7: under on a tenure that is still at the probably

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Speaker 7: towards the high end of a ten year treasury yield range.

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Speaker 7: And we do think, you know, FED is probably on

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Speaker 7: hold for now, but could we get one, possibly two

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Speaker 7: rate cuts during the reindeer of the cycle. Yes, and

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Speaker 7: so we do think an investment grade bond, you know,

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Speaker 7: for ten years, you can lock in four and a

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Speaker 7: half percent. If you're close to retirement and you're looking

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Speaker 7: at maybe for six to eight percent return, that's this

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Speaker 7: is not a bad part of your portfolio. So we

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Speaker 7: think it's a good thing for balanced investors to have yield.

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Speaker 5: Once again, how about alternatives real quickly?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, for Edward Jones client, did they think.

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Speaker 8: About alternative investments, private credit, private.

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Speaker 7: Ag Yeah, you know, for our average client, we can

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Speaker 7: get a lot done with this equities and bonds. You know,

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Speaker 7: we know the old adage. Yes, you know, I totally

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Speaker 7: agree with invest early invest often some of the high

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Speaker 7: net worth clients though, starting to look at parts of diversification.

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Speaker 2: I've never said this, I've never thought this. Edward Jones

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Speaker 2: a bit doog own bitcoin.

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Speaker 7: Very we think very speculative. Still, you know, we like

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Speaker 7: assets where we can model out cash flow, so selectors.

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Speaker 7: We want to be able to Yeah, cash flow's discount

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Speaker 7: and we can't do that yet, So not there yet.

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Speaker 2: Oh, come on, there's no wonderling.

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Speaker 7: And you know there's been other ways to make a

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Speaker 7: good living and return of less.

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Speaker 2: You know, we should do a joint interview, a one

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Speaker 2: hour interview Mona and the wonderful talent from Robinhood, have

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Speaker 2: Robinhood and Edward Jones together. Yeah, sure, that would be

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Speaker 2: like lights out.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Mona, this has been hugely valuable.

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Speaker 2: Don't be a stranger, Mona.

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Speaker 5: You guys we're the.

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Speaker 2: Senior investment strategist, Edward Jones, iconic across America.

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Speaker 1: Can't say look, this is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen

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Speaker 1: live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple

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Speaker 1: Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now pulling the lucky card moving to London

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Speaker 2: this week, Amanda Rabella joins US. She spent a huge

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Speaker 2: value add for US on ETFs. We thrilled with US

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Speaker 2: extra ecor sales in all, Let's start with the why

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Speaker 2: why are you moving to London? I mean, is it

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Speaker 2: just like it's time to move with all the cacophony

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Speaker 2: going on in America.

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Speaker 9: I think the US is still a fantastic country. There's

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Speaker 9: so much going for it. Obviously we've had a new

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Speaker 9: president coming in, but I think ultimately the long term

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Speaker 9: benefits of being in the US are still there. Just

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Speaker 9: you know, my gig was to come here and build

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Speaker 9: out our US business. We're the second largest ETF provider

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Speaker 9: on the usage side. We thought that there may be

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Speaker 9: a few things that some of our global investors can

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Speaker 9: benefit from with US bringing expertise to the US. Obviously

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Speaker 9: a very crowded market, but we've been able to get

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Speaker 9: some traction with some expertise in thematic.

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Speaker 1: Sure, this is moving back, it's moving back, moving back.

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Speaker 5: I got it, I got it.

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Speaker 3: Okay, thematics, yes, exactly.

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Speaker 4: So what give us the latest? What are you seeing

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Speaker 4: in the ETF business?

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Speaker 2: Where are the funds?

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Speaker 4: Flog is again, Tom, I've talked about this all the time.

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Speaker 4: We grew up in a world of mutual funds and

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Speaker 4: that's wh all the money was going. Now it's ETFs

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Speaker 4: has been an extraordinary world story.

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Speaker 5: So you're in a great business. It's better than equities

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Speaker 5: in Dallas.

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Speaker 4: But talk to us about ETF.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, so it's fantastic. So at the end of last year,

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Speaker 9: we crossed the ten trillion dollar mark globally in terms

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Speaker 9: of ETF au M, and then just in terms of

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Speaker 9: flows across the one trillion dollar mark. So just think

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Speaker 9: about that, right, that's basically as big as the you know,

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Speaker 9: volumes of FX on a daily basis globally. Right when

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Speaker 9: I think about when I was at an unknowned competitor,

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Speaker 9: but you can probably guess who. I remember. We had

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Speaker 9: a celebration for our am crossing the one trillion dollar mark,

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Speaker 9: and now you know, we've got many participants like that

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Speaker 9: fee cuts. Now we've got the second wave of new pricing.

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Speaker 2: So does the stable four or one K money migrate

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Speaker 2: over to ETFs? I think that's something three years out.

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Speaker 9: We're all waiting for this, and I think one component

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Speaker 9: of that is going to be very much about all

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Speaker 9: of us. A lot of the major asset managers have

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Speaker 9: now filed for ETF share classes with the SEC, So

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Speaker 9: there's around forty five asset managers who are now hoping

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Speaker 9: that the SEC will allow for share class issuance of

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Speaker 9: mutual funds. If you then have this opportunity, you can

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Speaker 9: have the same exposures in your brokerage account as in

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Speaker 9: your four oh one K. I think that the four

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Speaker 9: to one K mechanism is still going to be based

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Speaker 9: on daily pricing. But when you think about all of

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Speaker 9: the different ETFs you have versus all of the mutual funds.

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Speaker 2: You have yet, are you going to see lower fees?

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Speaker 2: Yeah to Lisa Mateo in her two oh one K

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Speaker 2: with a pool of ets versus a pool of mutual funds.

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Speaker 9: We did see some feed cuts at the beginning of

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Speaker 9: this week which were on mutual funds. Vanguard exactly seven points.

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Speaker 2: Well, Vanguard is not next to mansion house.

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Speaker 4: And seven basis points.

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Speaker 9: Wow, incredible, And that was the average, so there were

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Speaker 9: some even lower than that indeed, But I think all

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Speaker 9: of us are thinking about this. There's economies of scale

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Speaker 9: that have come with the fact that ETFs have just

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Speaker 9: like run away and we have like fixed costs which

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Speaker 9: can then be absorbed by a bigger au M. It

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Speaker 9: makes sense to be passing this on to end investors.

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Speaker 4: So revolution is and it makes a ton of sense

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Speaker 4: from a lot of the definitely want me air car

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Speaker 4: Tunis who does that stuff?

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Speaker 5: From whom Yeah he's won.

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Speaker 4: Us over, no, no, no question.

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Speaker 8: Where are the funds going?

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Speaker 4: Are they just going into the s and P five

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Speaker 4: hundred ETF or they go in more fun places?

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

440
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 9: So I think the volatility that we've had for the

441
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 9: past couple of weeks has been very interesting for all

442
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 9: of us. Definitely kept us on our toes. We had

443
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 9: seen a lot of money last year going into Nasdaq

444
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 9: in particular, but those flows have lightened off. Not everyone

445
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 9: has seen buying opportunities on the dip. We've seen a

446
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 9: great rotation into a little bit more flow on the

447
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 9: European equity side, and that's great for DWSX trackers, because

448
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 9: that's one of our core pillars and how we're helping investors.

449
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 9: If you look at European equities and international equitiesier to date,

450
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 9: they're actually outperforming US equities. People often think they're a dog, right,

451
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 9: but there's there's a great comeback, and especially when you

452
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 9: look at it on a dollar hedge perspective, it's really

453
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 9: making sense now.

454
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 2: I mean, you're so close to Saint Paul's where you're moving.

455
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 2: You can do, you can do. We're doing playing Mary

456
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 2: Poppins today. You can do the feed the bird's top and.

457
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 9: I've addressed then say in a work.

458
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: Or go down to Covent Garden. But Amanda, what's so

459
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 2: important here is everyone listening knows nobody can get a

460
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: place in Paris, nobody can get a place in London.

461
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: What's when your experience of trying to find a place

462
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 2: to put your head down at night.

463
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 9: I think that the market that I left is definitely

464
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 9: different from the market that I'm now coming back to.

465
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 9: We have still a lot of people living in the UK,

466
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 9: we still have net immigration. You know, the new government

467
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 9: is very keen to be thinking about further house building

468
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 9: and so forth. But there's already every time I go

469
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 9: back to London, there's skyscrapers everywhere, not just office space,

470
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 9: but also a lot of residential as well. And it's

471
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 9: all over the country, not just London.

472
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's there's like this. You read the British presence

473
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 2: Labor and Tories in Nigel Farage and all is not

474
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 2: doom and gloom but angst.

475
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 5: Yeah.

476
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 2: Am I right? It's booming? Is that a safe statement?

477
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 9: And I think maybe I don't want to get too

478
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 9: political about it, but I think that's the you know,

479
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 9: view we have in the UK is that immigration is

480
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 9: still in that positive for us. There's still workforces that

481
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 9: we need for certain parts of services. You know, we

482
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 9: even with Brexit, we still have a net migration from

483
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 9: the EU as well.

484
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 2: So okay, well we got we got Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

485
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 2: You gotta you gotta become a nodging acquaintance. You can

486
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: stagger from DWS over to over to Queen Victoria Street.

487
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 2: It's an easy art. But you know, don't forget Bloomberg

488
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 2: Daybreak London. But we'd still like to speak to you

489
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 2: a lot of nice Oh it's killing. They do a podcast, folks,

490
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes after the show starts and the numbers are

491
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 2: on it. It's not your Rogan, but it's Joe Rogan

492
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: Ish Amanda Rabell. Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.

493
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: Today this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each

494
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 1: weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and

495
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

496
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on

497
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal.

498
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 2: We now turned to Tel Aviv, where the qualities of

499
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 2: Ethan Braun are driving all of our coverage within the

500
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 2: levant Ethan. I'm not going to mince words here. When

501
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: you were at Wesleyan, you were sheltered from the violence

502
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: of bombing. We didn't have social media, we didn't have

503
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 2: the immediacy of the imagery we've seen in Gaza. I

504
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: was the same way of a vintage older Now we

505
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 2: have the immediacy where I can't even look at coverage

506
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 2: of Gaza it's so violent. How did you respond given

507
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: the last two years of Gaza? Leveling to the President's

508
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 2: comments yesterday at the White House.

509
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 8: A great question, Tom, but I'm not going to make

510
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 8: it personal.

511
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 6: I think that what I can reflect is how the

512
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 6: world responded, and certainly nothing less than shock. I would

513
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 6: say that in Israel there was a kind of bewildered

514
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 6: and amazed and bemused embrace. Because anything that might push

515
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 6: Hamas and Palestinians who oppose Israel away from its border

516
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 6: to be replaced by Americans and American soldiers and businesses. Wow,

517
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 6: that is something the Israelis are happy about. Pretty much

518
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 6: everybody else is horrified.

519
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 2: There was a nineteen forty eight Palestine war. Among you,

520
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 2: any other sets of violences from Beirut on down. Stay

521
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: at Cairo, mister Trump, meeting with the leadership of Egypt

522
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: here in the coming weeks and with Jordan. I should

523
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 2: mention as well, Ethan, this is so important. Where did

524
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: two point one four to two million Palestinians go?

525
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 6: So, I mean, the President says they're going to go

526
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 6: to Jordan and to Egypt and perhaps another half dozen

527
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 6: other places. If we look at Jordan, a country which

528
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 6: is more than half Palestinian to begin with them, that

529
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 6: is also a playing host to a million refue Jews

530
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 6: from Iraq and Syria, and which has its own internal

531
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 6: political challenges from the Muslim brotherhood this Hashemite monarchy is

532
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 6: very very afraid, and the last thing it was is

533
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 6: hundreds of thousands of Palestinians with links to Hamas coming

534
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 6: into its borders Egypt the same I mean tens and

535
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 6: tens of millions of people in Egypt. There the Sisi

536
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 6: government is fighting against the Muslim brotherhood of which Hamas

537
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 6: is an offshoot, and they're fighting Isis in the Sinai.

538
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 6: The last thing they want is hundreds of thousands of poor,

539
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 6: homeless Palestinians coming into there.

540
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 8: So I don't know Ethan.

541
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 4: Has there been a response from Iran yet?

542
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 8: I believe so, Paul.

543
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 6: I believe that Iran has said this is nuts, and

544
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 6: you know, it's a sign of what's wrong with America.

545
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 6: I believe I did see something from the Iranian foreign minister.

546
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 2: Yes.

547
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 4: So is there any sense within Israel as to a

548
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 4: possible next step here? I'm not even sure where we

549
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 4: go from this pronouncement from the President yesterday.

550
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 8: It's very very difficult for me to answer that.

551
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 6: First of all, the decision making apparatus is in Washington

552
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 6: right now and they're just waking up, So I don't

553
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 6: know the answer to it.

554
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 8: But I mean generally in this country. It's like whoa, whoa.

555
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 6: You know, no Israeli would have ever even dared propose

556
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 6: this to President Trump, that the United States come in,

557
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 6: bring its troops and it's people into Gaza to protect Israel.

558
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 6: And he has made the suggestion, so they don't know

559
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 6: what to do. I can tell you that the officials

560
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 6: that I'm talking to are in touch with those in

561
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 6: Washington are saying, we've never had a more amazing meeting

562
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 6: in the White House in the history of Israel.

563
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 2: Right, this hasn't come up yet. And Ethan, you're so

564
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: good at this, I can take the luxury of bringing

565
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 2: it up with you. I look at, say Robert Kaplan

566
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 2: in my book of the Year two years ago, is

567
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: wonderful stretch from Morocco over to the East, getting to Persia, etc.

568
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: And the loom of time and Ethan Bryner tendency there

569
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: is is Turkey air Towan looking down from the north

570
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 2: trying to husband control over this region. How does mister

571
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,479
Speaker 2: Airdwan respond to ad hoc trump isms.

572
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 8: Well, I don't know how he's going to but you're

573
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 8: absolutely right that it isn't a great opportunity for.

574
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 6: Him to show a sort of Muslim solidarity and to

575
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 6: show that this Zionist American imperialist approach is absolutely the

576
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 6: last thing we in the region want to need, and

577
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 6: it's going to help him take over Siria if that's

578
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 6: on his agenda, which it appears to be. So it's a

579
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 6: very legitimate question.

580
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 2: Paul's got some more. Let me sneak one in here quickly.

581
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 2: Here is Netanyah who electable in Israel? Like if there

582
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: was an election right now, would net yah who win?

583
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 2: Going away?

584
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 6: So you know, Natanya who is the Trump of Israel?

585
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 6: Meaning who could have possibly imagined such political power?

586
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 8: And the answer in my view is yes.

587
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 6: And the meeting yesterday and what President Trump offered him

588
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 6: is only going to consolidate his political standing in this country.

589
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 8: Yes, I believe he is Ethan.

590
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 4: Can you give us a sense of what the situation

591
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: is on the ground in Gaza today? Where are they

592
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 4: in that Ceaspire process.

593
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 8: Well, we're two weeks into it.

594
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 6: They're supposedly starting a discussion about the next phase. But

595
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 6: of course what the President just said kind of throws

596
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 6: everything into the air. Meanwhile, on the ground, hundreds of

597
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 6: thousands of people are returning to nothing to their homes

598
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 6: that are you know, hanging rebar and no water, no sewage,

599
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 6: and they don't know what to do. And many of

600
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 6: them are going back to the humanitarian ARAA and many

601
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 6: of them are.

602
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 8: Saying, get me out of here. So you know, that

603
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 8: is one.

604
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 6: Thing that needs to be said here that ideologically Palestinians

605
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 6: the audit we moved, but personally and practically plenty of

606
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 6: them would go if there were a place to go

607
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 6: because their homes are unfortunately a construction zone.

608
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: It's in one final quest question we brought up, and

609
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: this is in March of last year. It's like literally

610
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 2: twelve months ago, the successful civil engineering project known as

611
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 2: the Gaza Floating Peer. How do we actually, like, where

612
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: do we put the concrete of a destroyed gaza? Forgetting

613
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 2: about the humanitarian issue. I mean, we couldn't even build

614
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: a dock off gaza, let alone get rid of a

615
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 2: two million people body of concrete.

616
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 6: Tom, I'm going to take that as a rhetorical question

617
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 6: because I'm not an engineer.

618
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 8: I hear you, the floating pier was a disaster.

619
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 6: I mean, look that said, if there were a decision

620
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 6: to move everybody out and to rebuild the place. I'm

621
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 6: assuming American companies would find a way to move all

622
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 6: the rubble out. But I mean that's kind of question

623
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 6: number seventeen, right, The first sixteen are unanswerable.

624
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 4: So what are next steps? Just maybe a little bit

625
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 4: of from what we heard from President Trump, you say,

626
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 4: what are next steps in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

627
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 6: Look, in theory, there are working groups that are going

628
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 6: to Doha tomorrow to sort of work through the next phase,

629
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 6: which is more hostage releases, more prisoner releases, and so on.

630
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 6: Those things are pretty shaky. Israelis are quite shaken up

631
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 6: by the release of many, many people who've killed a

632
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 6: lot of Israelis, and they are on the other hand,

633
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 6: of course, embracing the hostages coming home. But it's in

634
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 6: theory that's the next phase. And I think that one

635
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 6: of the things that Trump may have been doing is

636
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 6: this kind of here's an extreme notion in order to

637
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 6: get all the hostages out and to get the Israeli

638
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 6: government to agree to a true end of war.

639
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 2: That may also be what's going on in exhausting time.

640
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 2: Ethan Browner, thank you so much for your leadership here.

641
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: Our coverage across the levon from Beirut, down to Tel

642
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: Aviv and on down to Cairo as well. Again the

643
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: President meeting with the leaderships of Jordan and Egypt here

644
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 2: in the coming weeks as well. After this stunning session

645
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 2: with Israel, in the news of the last twenty four hours.

646
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

647
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

648
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

649
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

650
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

651
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal