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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Monday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perralta at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt to follow me across all socials. This podcast

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Speaker 2: being brought to you by Omas Steaks dot com with

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Speaker 2: the customized url of Omaha Steaks dot com slash Juice.

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Speaker 2: Subscriptions are available right now at Omas Steaks dot com

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Speaker 2: slash Juice. You get free burgers for life when you

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Speaker 2: things out at Almost Steaks dot com slash Juice. So

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Speaker 2: I am hurting badly tonight. I'm forty six, about turn

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Speaker 2: forty seven. I'm in really good shape, very proud of

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Speaker 2: the effort and the work that I've put in to

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Speaker 2: get into this level of shape. But did something really

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Speaker 2: stupid yesterday. And so I normally don't live. I do

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Speaker 2: a lot of body weight stuff, I do a lot

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Speaker 2: of rucking with weight weighted vests, and I don't lift

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Speaker 2: all that much. Decided to lift yesterday because the weather

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Speaker 2: was such a crap day in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: It was fifty and.

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Speaker 2: Rainy and cold and nasty, and I was like, all right,

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Speaker 2: I just go to the gym and I lift and

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Speaker 2: dude's lift and I did a seated row where you

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Speaker 2: lean forward and you grab and you pull back. And

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Speaker 2: on my third to last set, I thought, let's go

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Speaker 2: up a little bit, Let's see what I can do.

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Speaker 2: And I as I went and grabbed the weight and

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Speaker 2: I went backwards, I completely ripped my back. And I've

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Speaker 2: done this before. It's not it's not all that uncommon

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Speaker 2: for me to get the guy I had to throw

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Speaker 2: back spasms. But when I get them like, I can't

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Speaker 2: do anything, like I can't even like I can't move

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Speaker 2: the lights, so I can't bend over, so I couldn't

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Speaker 2: set up the this is my TV setup. I couldn't

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Speaker 2: set up the betting pro set up because I can't

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Speaker 2: move anything. I mean a lot of pain. So I'm

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Speaker 2: on a good, good, heavy dose of iprofen. I've got

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Speaker 2: to literally I've got a heating pad going right now

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Speaker 2: behind me. That's how I can sit here and do

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Speaker 2: this podcast, trying to keep my back as loose as possible.

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Speaker 2: But that's why you're seeing what you're seeing today, and

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Speaker 2: why I sound a little bit more melancholy than normal,

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Speaker 2: because I'm in quite a bit of pain today, So explay.

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Speaker 2: Excuse me if I don't give a long and flowery

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Speaker 2: explanation for what we're betting here today.

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Speaker 1: But let's recap last week.

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Speaker 2: Not a good Sunday oh and three got my teeth

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Speaker 2: kicked in on Sunday. Favorites dominated on Sunday, and that really,

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Florida total should have hit. I mean Florida,

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Speaker 2: it came up a bucket short or two and a

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Speaker 2: half points short, going over one fifty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: It went hey, landed at one fifty three Florida. The

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Speaker 2: injury that that happened early in the game killed their

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Speaker 2: offensive rebounding, so that really hurt their put back potential.

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Speaker 2: And then the three point shooting was just abysmal, and

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Speaker 2: yet it almost went over. We landed two and a

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Speaker 2: half points shy there, So when that happened, I was like, uh, oh,

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Speaker 2: Temple got killed. And then Wisconsin just unfortunate. They lost

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Speaker 2: the game by six. We laid three and a half

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Speaker 2: Illinois wins and Illinois covers, so oh to three. That

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Speaker 2: put us down two point five units for the week.

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Speaker 2: After the first week, which was not good. So we

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Speaker 2: got a pretty good hole. We got to climb out

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Speaker 2: of here in the month of March. So one thing

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Speaker 2: to take a look at. Like, so currently I'm seventy

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Speaker 2: three and seventy two in college basketball. At one point

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Speaker 2: I was twenty games over five hundred in college basketball.

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Speaker 2: The more we get deeper into March, the more difficult

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Speaker 2: this becomes. Okay, it's why I really like doing future wagers. Okay,

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Speaker 2: you guys are asking me about all my futures and

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Speaker 2: what do I do.

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Speaker 1: We do nothing right now? Okay, if you.

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Speaker 2: Have trailed the future, whether it be Marquette, Creighton, Arizona,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina. I added Iowa State myself personally at thirty

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Speaker 2: to one last week. But the four official plays that

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Speaker 2: we've got and Tennessee. Sorry, so I have six futures sorry,

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Speaker 2: five for five official and six overall for me.

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Speaker 1: We're not gonna do anything. We won't do anything.

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Speaker 2: So when the bracket came out, like Arizona and Carolina

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Speaker 2: are in the same bracket, Okay, if both those teams

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Speaker 2: make the Elite Eight and they're playing each other for

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Speaker 2: the final four, that's tremendous. It's just we don't we

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Speaker 2: won't do anything if we've got Creighton in the same

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Speaker 2: bracket as Tennessee. If Creighton were to play Tennessee for

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Speaker 2: the chance to go to the final four, we wouldn't

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Speaker 2: do anything. The idea is to get teams that we

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Speaker 2: have futures on into the final four.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: Now, like let's say the Jays did play Tennessee, right,

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Speaker 2: So it's thirty to one on Creighton and Tennessee, right,

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Speaker 2: so we probably bet Tennessee in that game. See my point, Like,

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Speaker 2: this is how we're going to play off the future

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Speaker 2: wagers as we go. I don't know how many bets

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Speaker 2: I'll have going into Like everybody wants to bet heavy

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Speaker 2: in the NAA tournament. No, I won't be doing much

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Speaker 2: of that. Okay, I'll bet, Okay, we'll have plays, but

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Speaker 2: I'm not doing like more than our normal three bets.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to go heavy. Okay, these are very

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Speaker 2: sharp numbers. This is going to be this is the

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Speaker 2: hardest time of the year to bet, as you guys

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Speaker 2: have seen once we hit the tournament.

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Speaker 1: This is why I like having a portfolio, because we.

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Speaker 2: Don't do we don't need to do very much. Okay,

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Speaker 2: now it's about sitting back and watching. Let everybody else

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Speaker 2: fall off the cliff, right, Let everybody else bet the

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Speaker 2: favorites and let the dogs, like you know, we'll lay

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Speaker 2: some over, some some overs, like you know, Alabama Charleston,

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Speaker 2: that game betted over right over one seventy one and

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Speaker 2: a half. Bet it over. Okay, I'll be betting it over.

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Speaker 2: We'll see what the number goes to. But you can

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Speaker 2: bet it now if you want, or you can wait

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Speaker 2: a couple of days. Numbers aren't gonna move all that much. Okay,

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Speaker 2: certain games Houston right, Houston game is super low. Bet

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Speaker 2: Houston under. Why it's Houston? Ben Iowa State been under?

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Speaker 2: Why Iowa State? Okay, there's certain plays that will make

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Speaker 2: just because we've been betting them all year. But I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to over exert myself and try to get

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Speaker 2: myself into a really bad situation here. I want to

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Speaker 2: let the future wagers really kind of carry us through

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Speaker 2: the next three weeks in college basketball.

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Speaker 1: So what does that mean?

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Speaker 2: Well, that puts us into a place where we're going

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Speaker 2: to bet a lot more NBA and a lot more NHL. Okay,

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Speaker 2: two sports I've not been great at. But let's see

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Speaker 2: if we can close out the regular season decently here

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Speaker 2: and then look to get into the futures market for

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Speaker 2: the NBA, into the NHL. Once we get into that,

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Speaker 2: and then baseball is right around the corner, and baseball

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Speaker 2: is almost here. So you know, betting early season baseball

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Speaker 2: is not horrible. It could be profitable to bet it

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Speaker 2: before the books have a solid read in numbers. You know,

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Speaker 2: you see a couple of trends, you can jump on

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Speaker 2: some trend betting in April that can be somewhat profitable.

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Speaker 1: So that's the explanation.

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Speaker 2: A bunch of you're asking, like, what do I do

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Speaker 2: if I have a future on Please don't ask me that.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: If you have a different future than what I bet, fine,

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Speaker 2: I'll try to consult you. But if it's the future

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Speaker 2: I have, I'll tell you what we're going to do

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Speaker 2: here in this space right here, So no need to

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Speaker 2: write to me on the Discord channel, listen or watch

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Speaker 2: to the podcast, and I'll tell you when it's time

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Speaker 2: to work off of the future. Until then, we're not

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Speaker 2: doing anything the open weekend. Okay, if Carolina loses sixteen

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Speaker 2: to one, all right, we lose the bet. Okay, Tennessee

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Speaker 2: loses in the second round, we lose the bet. It's

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Speaker 2: I'm not hedging off these positions until we get to

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Speaker 2: the Sweet sixteen. So opening weekend wise, literally nothing. I'm

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Speaker 2: not doing anything with the futures, just FYI. So if

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Speaker 2: it loses, it loses. That's gambling. Okay, that's just the

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Speaker 2: way that it works. It's why I told you to

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Speaker 2: bet one unit. It loses, it loses. But sweet sixteen,

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Speaker 2: then we'll start to play off of it. Then we'll

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Speaker 2: start to get aggressive. Okay. The dream is that all

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Speaker 2: six teams I've got futures on, they all make the

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Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen. The reality is I'm hoping to get four

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Speaker 2: to get to the Sweet sixteen. If I have a

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Speaker 2: fourth of the Sweet sixteen, we can work. We got

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Speaker 2: things to work on. So before we get to the

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Speaker 2: picks today, it is time to tell you about the

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Speaker 2: prosapp at bettingpros dot com slash Apps. All right, let's

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Speaker 2: start with hockey. Let's talk about see Buffalo at the Seattlekraken.

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Speaker 2: The Seattle Kraken nine consecutive first period unders minus one

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Speaker 2: oh five to a one and a half under first

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Speaker 2: period bet here tonight. Now, why is that so low?

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Speaker 2: You might go, matt Man, one five seems low for it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, when we're doing the you know, the stars

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Speaker 2: over one and a half in the second period, it's

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Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. Why aren't the books adjusting to this?

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Speaker 2: There's a good shot that a rookie go, a rookie

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Speaker 2: is being called up, that Levy is going to be

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Speaker 2: in net here tonight for the Buffalo Sabers. Now, he

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Speaker 2: hasn't been awful, he's been decent, but he hasn't played

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Speaker 2: since late January. It's been a month or so for him,

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Speaker 2: so the Sabers called him up. He's expected to start

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Speaker 2: here for the Kraken now. Philip Grubauer's in net for

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Speaker 2: the Kraken. He's been pretty good this year with a

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Speaker 2: two point eighty six goals against average. Him at home

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Speaker 2: has a two point nine to nine goals against average.

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Speaker 2: He's been a pretty good goaltender here at home. He

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Speaker 2: just lost four to one to Nashville in a game

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Speaker 2: that happened on Saturday. At home lost five to four

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Speaker 2: of the Golden Knights back on the twelfth of March

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Speaker 2: for him, but Seattle's played slowly. Okay, I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 2: the trend, but I totally understand where you might be,

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Speaker 2: like rookie goaltender. I'm not backing it, Matt. Yes, it's

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Speaker 2: nine in a row, but I'm gonna bet over in

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Speaker 2: the first period. Let's just hope the rookie comes out

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Speaker 2: and plays well and it's a one nothing score after

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Speaker 2: one and we go under. It's only minus one oh five. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so it's pretty cheap to bet this. I think it's

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Speaker 2: worth betting the trend. Betting the streak because the price. Okay,

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Speaker 2: at minus one oh five, this was heavy juice. I

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Speaker 2: would not recommend this, but under one and a half

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Speaker 2: goals in the first period is minus one oh five.

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Speaker 2: I don't think you can pass that up. Let's go

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Speaker 2: ahead and jump on this here Grubauer against Levy. Let's

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Speaker 2: hope the rookie plays well here for Seattle and Grubauer

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Speaker 2: gives up one or none to Buffalo under one and

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Speaker 2: a half goals in the first period at minus one

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Speaker 2: oh five. The total for the game is five and

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Speaker 2: a half. By the way, So if you want to say, look,

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Speaker 2: I'd rather bet the entire game under and not the

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Speaker 2: first period under, I don't blame you at all. Because

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Speaker 2: Buffalo is five and oh to the under on the

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Speaker 2: road over the last five and Seattle is four and

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Speaker 2: one to the under over their last five games at home.

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Speaker 2: So there's absolutely a market to come in here and

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Speaker 2: bet the under on the game. Okay, it's five and

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Speaker 2: a half, though if it was six, I.

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Speaker 1: Would be all in.

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Speaker 2: If you guys, we get up in the morning if

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Speaker 2: it's six, if it goes up to six, bet the under. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think it's gonna go there. It's juiced slightly.

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Speaker 2: The over at most books either minus one twelve, one fifteen,

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Speaker 2: one twenty somewhere in that range. Five and a half

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Speaker 2: always scares me, in particular with a rookie goaltender. Maybe

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Speaker 2: he plays really well in the first period but then

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Speaker 2: gets lit up late, so or the vice versa happens.

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Speaker 2: He gets lit up early because he's nervous and the

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Speaker 2: crack end take advantage. I mean, it's a tough read,

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Speaker 2: so as I'm saying, it's a hard read. But let's

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Speaker 2: just go one nothing after one and keep the streak

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Speaker 2: alive at minus one oh five. But I absolutely could

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Speaker 2: see an underplay. You want to bet under five and

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Speaker 2: a half of the game. I don't mind that at all.

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Speaker 2: The official play, though, is to ride the streak nine

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Speaker 2: to zero. Let's make it go ten and zero for

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Speaker 2: the Seattle Kraken to a first period under mice one

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Speaker 2: oh five Kraken and the Sabers under one and a

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Speaker 2: half goals in the first period. Okay, to the NBA,

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Speaker 2: we go, Let's talk about Detroit at Boston. So I

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Speaker 2: went and pulled some numbers here. Okay, the total is

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Speaker 2: two twenty six in this game opened at two twenty

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Speaker 2: three and a half. That's been met up to two

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Speaker 2: twenty six. My thought is it's going to keep on climbing.

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Speaker 2: Boston averages one hundred and twenty three point five points

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Speaker 2: per game at home. The first half team total numbers

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Speaker 2: are not out at the ton of taping. If you

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Speaker 2: want to bet Boston first half team total over, if

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Speaker 2: it's between fifty eight and sixty two over, I like it. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Detroit when they're on the road scoring, they're not great,

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Speaker 2: but they score on the road about one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twelve point seven points per game. Defensively, Look, Detroit's not good, right,

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Speaker 2: we know Detroit's not good. They give up a lot

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Speaker 2: of points, whether it be on the road or at home.

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Speaker 2: Detroit gives up one hundred and twenty two point three

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Speaker 2: points per game on the road, that is third worst

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Speaker 2: in the NBA. Boston at home gives up one hundred

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Speaker 2: and eight points per game, which is right around what

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Speaker 2: Detroit scores on the road themselves. So if we just

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Speaker 2: get an average game for the Celtics in an average

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Speaker 2: game for the Pistons, this game is going.

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Speaker 1: To go over.

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Speaker 2: I like the over two twenty six here sorry, two

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Speaker 2: twenty five and a half here for Boston and Detroit.

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Speaker 2: I don't mind a team total over for Boston in

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Speaker 2: the first half. I'm just not laying sixteen points with

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Speaker 2: the Boston Celtics. Okay, Boston's covered five straight games. They've

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Speaker 2: won five straight games by big numbers. You can try

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Speaker 2: to late if you want, but sixteens just as too heavy.

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Speaker 2: Boston is nineteen and fourteen at home ats, but Detroit

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Speaker 2: is seventeen and fifteen on the road ATS. Detroit just

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Speaker 2: covered against Miami in their last home game. In their

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Speaker 2: last road game, they covered against Miami, losing by eight

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Speaker 2: as eleven point dogs. Last time they play Boston was

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Speaker 2: a seventeen point number on the road. Boston won by six.

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Speaker 2: Detroit covered, so not really looking to lay sixteen points.

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Speaker 2: They couldn't cover six, they couldn't cover seventeen points. Now

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Speaker 2: the laying sixteen points. Boston's won five game in a row, though,

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Speaker 2: five games in a row by twenty six, fifteen, sixteen,

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Speaker 2: twenty two, and ten. To lean on the Celtics, I

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Speaker 2: like the first half team total over, but it's not

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Speaker 2: available in staid. We'll just go with the full game

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Speaker 2: over two twenty five and a half for Boston and

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Speaker 2: Detroit and then Miami and Philadelphia. We are going to

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Speaker 2: keep on hammering this year. Philadelphia five straight games to

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Speaker 2: the under, seven and three overall to the under, and

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Speaker 2: Miami is twenty six and nine to the under on

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Speaker 2: the year. On the road, they've gone under six times

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Speaker 2: in a row, eight and two to the under. The

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Speaker 2: total is two to eleven open to two thirteen. It's

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Speaker 2: now two eleven under Miami in Philadelphia. I don't care

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Speaker 2: who's playing, It doesn't really matter. Both these teams are

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Speaker 2: dead under teams. When they played the last time, it

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Speaker 2: was two twenty six and a half at Philly. Game

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Speaker 2: went under by thirteen and a half points. This number

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Speaker 2: nine was too eleven. Game would have fallen on that

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Speaker 2: number of two eleven. Actually no, that would have been

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Speaker 2: too thirteen the last time that they played, so Tattley.

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Speaker 1: Would have gone over this number if they would have played.

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Speaker 2: They played back on the on Christmas Day to twenty

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. It went over by four and

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Speaker 2: a half points in that game. But these teams just

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Speaker 2: do not score. Philly does not score five straight unders

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Speaker 2: two to oh nine and a half in their last

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Speaker 2: game against Charlotte that went under two twenty against Milwaukee,

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Speaker 2: that game went under twoh eight against the Knicks, that

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Speaker 2: game went under to twelve against the Knicks that went

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Speaker 2: under by sixty points, and New Orleans twenty two. They

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Speaker 2: were under by twenty four points. Again, I bet streaks

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Speaker 2: like this. We're betting the streak under two eleven Philly

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Speaker 2: in Miami for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: All right, three bets for us going here.

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Speaker 2: I will look to bring back player props at some

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Speaker 2: point during the week, maybe tomorrow on Tuesday. We may

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Speaker 2: come back with player props for the NBA. But for

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Speaker 2: tonight for a Monday, we're going with under one and

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Speaker 2: a half goals first period a Seattle and the Buffalo Sabers,

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Speaker 2: Celtics and the Pistons over to twenty five and a half,

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Speaker 2: Miami and Philadelphia under two eleven, all for one point

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Speaker 2: one units. Let's start this Monday off on a good stretch,

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Speaker 2: good day. Hopefully my back feels better and we can

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Speaker 2: have a more entertaining and fun podcast coming up tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, I did nothing on Saint Patrick's Day.

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Speaker 2: I was going to the gym to get ready to

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Speaker 2: go and have a good time on St.

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Speaker 1: Patrick's Day.

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Speaker 2: It killed my whole day, So that one drink I

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Speaker 2: had on the podcast yesterday was the only drink I

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Speaker 2: had in Saint Patrick's Day. I was happy to share

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Speaker 2: it with you guys. My name is Mat Parol. Follow

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Speaker 2: me across all socials at Sports Talk Matt. Every morning,

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Speaker 2: Dale Juice podcast was being brought to you by olmastakes

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Speaker 2: dot com