WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Libby Cantrill & Jeff deGraaf

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News the single best idea

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<v Speaker 1>on the Oddust of Tuesdays in a slow motion August.

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<v Speaker 1>It was not slow motion didity. Thanks to our team

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<v Speaker 1>Eric and all who blew up the show. Here off

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<v Speaker 1>the Lisa Cook News with President Trump yesterday evening Libby Cantrell,

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<v Speaker 1>a PIMCO is expert, and I really talked to her

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<v Speaker 1>less about Trump Cook and much more about the reaction

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<v Speaker 1>of senators. Here's Libby Cantrell on the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>This is in many ways self defeating for the President because,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, not only does this potentially not have the

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<v Speaker 2>impact on the old curve that he wants to see

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<v Speaker 2>and mortgage rates and what have you, but it also

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<v Speaker 2>makes the confirmation of any future nominee that much more difficult.

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<v Speaker 2>Remember that in or to get confirmed and nominee needs

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<v Speaker 2>fifty votes in the Senate, Republicans right now have fifty three. However,

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<v Speaker 2>this is something that you all. I appreciate this nuance,

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<v Speaker 2>but lots of financial press do not. The Senate Banking Committee,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the first step to confirmation any nominee, cannot

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<v Speaker 2>lose one Republican assuming Democrats vote against that person, so

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<v Speaker 2>that means that by doing this, the president has focused

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<v Speaker 2>attention on that confirmation process and in my view, makes

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<v Speaker 2>it a lot more difficult for him to get anybody

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<v Speaker 2>who has any whiff of partisanship or any whiff of

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<v Speaker 2>being able to be influenced by the president in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of minetary policy.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me cantrol a huge value ed this morning yesterday,

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<v Speaker 1>and I put out the chart today. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be my chart of the year. Ed. Your

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<v Speaker 1>Denny floored me by saying S and P five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>ten thousand by the end of the deck out twenty six,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine, out four in three months,

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<v Speaker 1>four years, three months, whatever it is. I came in

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<v Speaker 1>this morning and did the math. Actually I did do

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<v Speaker 1>the math. My interns did the math. And the answer

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<v Speaker 1>is it's Dow seventy thousand, Dow forty four thousand right now,

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<v Speaker 1>balloons up to seventy thousand, and the return is ten

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent. Jeff de Graph is a renaissance

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<v Speaker 1>macro excellent. I'm mixing economics with fundamentals and technicals. Jeffrey

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<v Speaker 1>de Graph on the YARDENNI Dow seventy thousand.

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<v Speaker 3>I think you cleared a lot of the weak hands

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<v Speaker 3>out with the tariff talk and some of the concerns there.

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<v Speaker 3>You're probably between here and there. Obviously there's another five

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<v Speaker 3>years to go or four plus years to go, you'll

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<v Speaker 3>have a meaningful consolidation and you'll have another draw down

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<v Speaker 3>that is probably in the twenty percent camp. But certainly

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<v Speaker 3>those those types of moves we think are are typical

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<v Speaker 3>of this long term secular trend that we're in. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>what could derail it? You know, our bond's going to

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<v Speaker 3>end up being a friend or foe. I mean, that's

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<v Speaker 3>obviously something we have to look at. But I think

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<v Speaker 3>what's really interesting, Tom is this normalization of the yield

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<v Speaker 3>curves globally has actually not derailed equities.

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<v Speaker 4>It's helped equities.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that's really important that this financial suppression

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<v Speaker 3>that we're under seems to be loosening and that's been

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<v Speaker 3>good for free markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Classic de graph mixing in the yield space, the fixed

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<v Speaker 1>income space, and the equities as well. We saw the

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<v Speaker 1>twos tens spread steeping out today, and of course I'm

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<v Speaker 1>watching the comparison of the thirty year bond yield with

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<v Speaker 1>the two year bond yields so called twos thirty spread

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Get familiar with that. I think you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to hear a lot about that into year in on

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<v Speaker 1>Apple and on Spotify and on YouTube podcasts.

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<v Speaker 4>It's single best idea

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<v Speaker 2>I renewed the about people were in to the Lander