1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News the single best idea 2 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: on the Oddust of Tuesdays in a slow motion August. 3 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: It was not slow motion didity. Thanks to our team 4 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 1: Eric and all who blew up the show. Here off 5 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: the Lisa Cook News with President Trump yesterday evening Libby Cantrell, 6 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: a PIMCO is expert, and I really talked to her 7 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: less about Trump Cook and much more about the reaction 8 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: of senators. Here's Libby Cantrell on the moment. 9 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: This is in many ways self defeating for the President because, 10 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 2: of course, not only does this potentially not have the 11 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: impact on the old curve that he wants to see 12 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 2: and mortgage rates and what have you, but it also 13 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: makes the confirmation of any future nominee that much more difficult. 14 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 2: Remember that in or to get confirmed and nominee needs 15 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 2: fifty votes in the Senate, Republicans right now have fifty three. However, 16 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 2: this is something that you all. I appreciate this nuance, 17 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 2: but lots of financial press do not. The Senate Banking Committee, 18 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,639 Speaker 2: which is the first step to confirmation any nominee, cannot 19 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 2: lose one Republican assuming Democrats vote against that person, so 20 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 2: that means that by doing this, the president has focused 21 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 2: attention on that confirmation process and in my view, makes 22 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 2: it a lot more difficult for him to get anybody 23 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: who has any whiff of partisanship or any whiff of 24 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 2: being able to be influenced by the president in terms 25 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 2: of minetary policy. 26 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: Let me cantrol a huge value ed this morning yesterday, 27 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: and I put out the chart today. I think it's 28 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: going to be my chart of the year. Ed. Your 29 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: Denny floored me by saying S and P five hundred 30 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 1: ten thousand by the end of the deck out twenty six, 31 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine, out four in three months, 32 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: four years, three months, whatever it is. I came in 33 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: this morning and did the math. Actually I did do 34 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: the math. My interns did the math. And the answer 35 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: is it's Dow seventy thousand, Dow forty four thousand right now, 36 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: balloons up to seventy thousand, and the return is ten 37 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: and a half percent. Jeff de Graph is a renaissance 38 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: macro excellent. I'm mixing economics with fundamentals and technicals. Jeffrey 39 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: de Graph on the YARDENNI Dow seventy thousand. 40 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 3: I think you cleared a lot of the weak hands 41 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 3: out with the tariff talk and some of the concerns there. 42 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 3: You're probably between here and there. Obviously there's another five 43 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 3: years to go or four plus years to go, you'll 44 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 3: have a meaningful consolidation and you'll have another draw down 45 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 3: that is probably in the twenty percent camp. But certainly 46 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 3: those those types of moves we think are are typical 47 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 3: of this long term secular trend that we're in. Now, 48 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 3: what could derail it? You know, our bond's going to 49 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 3: end up being a friend or foe. I mean, that's 50 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 3: obviously something we have to look at. But I think 51 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 3: what's really interesting, Tom is this normalization of the yield 52 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 3: curves globally has actually not derailed equities. 53 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 4: It's helped equities. 54 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 3: And I think that's really important that this financial suppression 55 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 3: that we're under seems to be loosening and that's been 56 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 3: good for free markets. 57 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: Classic de graph mixing in the yield space, the fixed 58 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 1: income space, and the equities as well. We saw the 59 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: twos tens spread steeping out today, and of course I'm 60 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: watching the comparison of the thirty year bond yield with 61 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: the two year bond yields so called twos thirty spread 62 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: as well. Get familiar with that. I think you're going 63 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: to hear a lot about that into year in on 64 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: Apple and on Spotify and on YouTube podcasts. 65 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 4: It's single best idea 66 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: I renewed the about people were in to the Lander