1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,440
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

2
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,520
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pisapia and it's Monday.

3
00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:07,960
Speaker 1: You know what that means. It's time to look ahead

4
00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,000
Speaker 1: to week twelve in the NFL. We'll talk a little

5
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:13,120
Speaker 1: Monday Night football as well. But boose of you who

6
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,000
Speaker 1: want the full breakdown on the Thursday football games the

7
00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games, Well, guess what, Matt and Pat have a

8
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:21,640
Speaker 1: special breakdown coming up for you. So we're gonna skip

9
00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,040
Speaker 1: those today. You're gonna have to watch the special Thanksgiving edition.

10
00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:26,799
Speaker 1: I assume it's gonna be a lot like Charlie Brown.

11
00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,480
Speaker 1: Potentially is gonna be perhaps some toast made by Pat

12
00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,159
Speaker 1: and Matt will make all the popcorn. I believe that

13
00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,600
Speaker 1: was the feast that Charlie Brown had at Thanksgiving. So

14
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,200
Speaker 1: they're gonna have some toast and popcorn, talk a little

15
00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,159
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving football. But today, don't forget everybody. It's brought to

16
00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,760
Speaker 1: you by bet MGM, the King of Sports Books. Download

17
00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,360
Speaker 1: the bet MGM app today and you can go ahead

18
00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 1: and start making your wagers and potentially make some money

19
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,320
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, make some money back. You can spend on

20
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:53,960
Speaker 1: Black Friday. So gentlemen, let's get right after it, and

21
00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,920
Speaker 1: let's start here Denver and Carolina. This is the game

22
00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:58,720
Speaker 1: you've all been waiting for. I hope we don't lose

23
00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,920
Speaker 1: any listeners here as we start this one. Three and

24
00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,560
Speaker 1: seven Denver Broncos against the three and eight Carolina Panthers.

25
00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,560
Speaker 1: This one's in Carolina. They had two and a half

26
00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,800
Speaker 1: point home dogs here. Thirty five and a half is

27
00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,200
Speaker 1: the over under if you like Carolina for the upset

28
00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,320
Speaker 1: plus one twenty freedman, let's talk about this game, because

29
00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,040
Speaker 1: I believe we're contractually obligated to do so. Do you

30
00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,040
Speaker 1: think that that thirty five and a half is safe?

31
00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 2: It's I mean, I bet the under thirty seven in

32
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,160
Speaker 2: the look ahead market because I just knew I want

33
00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,000
Speaker 2: to be on it. Two and a half is exactly

34
00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:28,679
Speaker 2: the right number.

35
00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:29,399
Speaker 3: Thirty five.

36
00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,360
Speaker 2: Let me see, I have this projected still at thirty four,

37
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,840
Speaker 2: so I would it's a disgusting game. I would bet

38
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,240
Speaker 2: the under. But who's scoring points in this game? The

39
00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,800
Speaker 2: Broncos are now nine and one to the under. They've

40
00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,720
Speaker 2: got the perfect setup to be an under team, an

41
00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,959
Speaker 2: elite defense in an offense that can't score. It's a

42
00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 2: perfect scenario and they have a perfect partner in this,

43
00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,080
Speaker 2: and that the Panthers are horrible on offense and pretty

44
00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:53,840
Speaker 2: good on defense.

45
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:58,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, Baker Mayfield was not the answer to the problem yesterday,

46
00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,800
Speaker 1: that's for sure. Any take here on the Denver Carolina

47
00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,960
Speaker 1: any early value in your opinion.

48
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 4: Well, Friedman is clearly underestimating the possibility that Sam Darnold

49
00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,520
Speaker 4: can come in and start lighting up the pinball machine

50
00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:15,000
Speaker 4: for the Panthers. But it's funny, Joe. This totally reminds

51
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,800
Speaker 4: me of a game I bet on Saturday that Friedman

52
00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:21,440
Speaker 4: and I were talking about. Iowa at Minnesota went off

53
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,240
Speaker 4: at apparently a record low thirty.

54
00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:25,320
Speaker 5: One and a half points.

55
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,200
Speaker 4: Two teams that you know, play good defense and have

56
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 4: a little bit of trouble scoring on offense, and they

57
00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:34,800
Speaker 4: were playing in like a wintery, windy Midwestern chill up

58
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 4: in Minneapolis. Our own college football expert Thorne Eystrom was

59
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,400
Speaker 4: actually attending that game in person, And.

60
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,359
Speaker 5: I bet the over. I thought thirty one and a

61
00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 5: half was just too low.

62
00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:46,800
Speaker 4: And you know, I was talking to Friedman while that

63
00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 4: game was early in the second quarter. It had already

64
00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,799
Speaker 4: gotten a ten to seven, I think Iowa, And like

65
00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,000
Speaker 4: you know, by halftime the teams had put up over

66
00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,160
Speaker 4: three hundred yards of total offense combined, and of course

67
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,960
Speaker 4: the game petered out and finished under and I lost

68
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:01,520
Speaker 4: that wager.

69
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,359
Speaker 5: So I'm not.

70
00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,200
Speaker 4: Inclined to go back to the well and be bold

71
00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,799
Speaker 4: and look at this ridiculously low total and think, oh,

72
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:10,639
Speaker 4: it's got to go over this, right, because I just

73
00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,360
Speaker 4: got burned on a similar bets, probably just walking away

74
00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,080
Speaker 4: from the total here. And you know, don't feel great

75
00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,120
Speaker 4: about either side. I mean, I just like Denver, I

76
00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,560
Speaker 4: thought was in such a good position to just truck

77
00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 4: the Raiders who seem to be coming apart at the seams,

78
00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:30,680
Speaker 4: And like Denver's offense is just stuck in the mud.

79
00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 4: I mean, it's been quick saying for that offense all year.

80
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, the new play calling from Clint Kubiak really

81
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 1: didn't make much of a difference after all, did it.

82
00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:40,960
Speaker 1: And on top of that, I don't know how defensively

83
00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,880
Speaker 1: you can not account for DeVante Adams in overtime. I mean, legitimately,

84
00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,280
Speaker 1: no one within twenty yards of that guy. I don't understand.

85
00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 1: I just don't understand how that happens. You know what,

86
00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,840
Speaker 1: Pat's tou bad. You should have teased that South Carolina

87
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:54,960
Speaker 1: Tennessee game up to ninety. You probably would have still

88
00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:56,480
Speaker 1: won money on that one. That would have been a

89
00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 1: man that was a fun football kid on Saturday night.

90
00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 1: Not the same scoring to expect in Carolina this coming weekend.

91
00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,720
Speaker 1: Let's get to the next one here, Tampa in Cleveland.

92
00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 1: Now this is an interesting one because you got the

93
00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,120
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns who continue to fight. You know, the Cleveland

94
00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:11,840
Speaker 1: Browns are kind of plucky. They were you know, they

95
00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,760
Speaker 1: hang around in some games. Tampa Bay five and five,

96
00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,039
Speaker 1: they were five hundred. They are three point road favorites

97
00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:18,400
Speaker 1: in this one. Forty four and a half is the

98
00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,640
Speaker 1: number if you like Cleveland for the upsets, plus one

99
00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:22,960
Speaker 1: forty on the money line. Pat, let's talk about this

100
00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:24,680
Speaker 1: one here. Clearly, you can run the ball all day

101
00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,719
Speaker 1: long in the Cleveland Browns. Do you think that's what

102
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,640
Speaker 1: Tampa's going to do? Because Tampa really pretends that they

103
00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:31,960
Speaker 1: want to just run the football all the time. I mean,

104
00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:33,599
Speaker 1: I just throw the football all the time. That seems

105
00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,200
Speaker 1: to be more of their m Do you think that

106
00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,400
Speaker 1: they will gamescript accordingly? And if so, does that put

107
00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,080
Speaker 1: this forty four potentially in danger.

108
00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a good question, Joe. I wonder if they

109
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 4: will maybe turn to the run a little bit more.

110
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 5: With the UH.

111
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,360
Speaker 4: Rookie Rashad White kind of juicing up their running game

112
00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,680
Speaker 4: a bit in recent weeks. And yeah, you mentioned the

113
00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,600
Speaker 4: Browns are scrappy, like they've only won one of their

114
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,680
Speaker 4: last seven games, but they've had a run of pretty

115
00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,720
Speaker 4: decent and opponents during that stretch. I mean, Atlanta the

116
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 4: first one was probably the weakest of their opponents. Otherwise,

117
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,800
Speaker 4: the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills.

118
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,520
Speaker 5: Like, I want to like the home dog coming.

119
00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:18,000
Speaker 4: Off the tough loss in this spot, but I don't

120
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:23,200
Speaker 4: know the Buccaneers well rested. I've got this game. As

121
00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,799
Speaker 4: you know, Bucks should be favored by about three. I'm

122
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,080
Speaker 4: you know, within a quarter of a point half a

123
00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,680
Speaker 4: point of the total. I'm not getting a strong vibe

124
00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,360
Speaker 4: either way here, Freeman.

125
00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,479
Speaker 1: Any vibes from you on this Brown's Bucks game.

126
00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm exactly at forty four on the total, so

127
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,279
Speaker 2: nothing there. I have this in three and a half

128
00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:44,880
Speaker 2: and I did bet this and look ahead and market

129
00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:45,400
Speaker 2: at three.

130
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,680
Speaker 3: I do like Tampa Bay in this spot. They actually

131
00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,280
Speaker 3: have been trying to run more this year, which has

132
00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,359
Speaker 3: been like a bad thing for their offense. They've been

133
00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,880
Speaker 3: running too much on first and second down and it's

134
00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 3: putting Brady in a bad position for third down. But

135
00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:00,880
Speaker 3: given that that's the propensity that they have and that

136
00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,479
Speaker 3: they have this matchup, maybe this is the one game

137
00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,120
Speaker 3: where the running actually doesn't come back to bite them

138
00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,240
Speaker 3: where they can actually run with some success. So I

139
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,040
Speaker 3: do like them in this spot, all.

140
00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,880
Speaker 1: Right, Next one on the board here the Baltimore Ravens. Boy, boy,

141
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:16,040
Speaker 1: are they limping into this game. They are seven and three.

142
00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,800
Speaker 1: They are four point favorites going against the Jacksonville Jaguars,

143
00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,320
Speaker 1: who are three and seven. Forty five and a half

144
00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 1: is the over under. If you like the Jags, it's

145
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,359
Speaker 1: plus one seventy five on the money line. Freedman, so

146
00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,320
Speaker 1: many injuries for Baltimore. They look so lacklesser in the

147
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,240
Speaker 1: first half of that game yesterday, and they kind of

148
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,279
Speaker 1: put things together. Look, the defense is played very well.

149
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,960
Speaker 1: The offense is really just I feel like they're they're

150
00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,479
Speaker 1: just lacking that ground and pound running back that they're

151
00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 1: used to having, and people can joke all they want

152
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:42,920
Speaker 1: about mark Ingram back in the day, being old and

153
00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,120
Speaker 1: all that stuff. I guess what, he was part of

154
00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:46,960
Speaker 1: that identity of that team, and they just don't seem

155
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,000
Speaker 1: to have that ability to do what they want to

156
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,960
Speaker 1: do offensively. Bateman out. I know Andrews came back and

157
00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,200
Speaker 1: played yesterday, but still, just this offense isn't looking great.

158
00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,560
Speaker 1: Is there any reason here to believe that the Jacksonville

159
00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,160
Speaker 1: Jaguar might keep this game a little bit closer considering

160
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,640
Speaker 1: all of the issues that Baltimore's had so far offensively

161
00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:05,680
Speaker 1: the last few weeks.

162
00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,440
Speaker 2: Yes, they are coming off of the buy. They're at home.

163
00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,600
Speaker 2: This number is four at some spots, but at bet

164
00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:13,760
Speaker 2: in GM it's three and a half. It's starting to

165
00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,040
Speaker 2: move down. Honestly, I have this at two point seventy five.

166
00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,200
Speaker 2: When I'm done talking, I'm going to go bet this

167
00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,760
Speaker 2: at four at one of the books where that numbers

168
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:22,960
Speaker 2: for me.

169
00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 3: I love when we do this.

170
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:26,680
Speaker 1: I did the same thing last week where I bet

171
00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 1: the Titans after our conversation against Green Bay. I love

172
00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,680
Speaker 1: our live betting in show as we just can't get

173
00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:34,760
Speaker 1: enough of it. We have a sickness. All three of us.

174
00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,160
Speaker 1: It's great. I love It's why I love doing this show.

175
00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,280
Speaker 1: Pat fitz Morris, let's talk about this one for you.

176
00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,800
Speaker 1: It's just really hard to be super confident in Baltimore

177
00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:45,760
Speaker 1: despite the fact that their defense is very good. Do

178
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:47,720
Speaker 1: you have that same feeling that Friedman I do, where

179
00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,760
Speaker 1: Jacksonville can hang around at least or maybe to the

180
00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:55,280
Speaker 1: other end of that spectrum, maybe Baltimore can't separate themselves

181
00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:56,840
Speaker 1: as we think that they can.

182
00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,800
Speaker 4: I do have that feeling, and it's a very tangent feeling, Joe,

183
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,800
Speaker 4: because having too much faith in the Ravens has hurt

184
00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,520
Speaker 4: me in the wallet for the last month or so.

185
00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,200
Speaker 5: So yeah, I do get that vibe.

186
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,200
Speaker 4: And what you said about the Ravens not having that

187
00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,720
Speaker 4: power running game makes a lot of sense. I mean,

188
00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,400
Speaker 4: Gus Edwards missed their Week eleven game. We don't know

189
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,240
Speaker 4: about his status for Week twelve, But without JK. Dobbins

190
00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,679
Speaker 4: and Gus Edwards, they've just got all these finesse backs

191
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,000
Speaker 4: left on the roster, Kenny Drake, Justice Hill, Mike Davis.

192
00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, they don't have that power running game, and

193
00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 4: I think in the first three weeks the season, Lamar

194
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,400
Speaker 4: Jackson threw like ten touchdown passes since then. I think

195
00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,320
Speaker 4: he's thrown six TD passes in seven games, and they're

196
00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,960
Speaker 4: averaging like one hundred and seventy five passing yards a

197
00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,280
Speaker 4: game over that stretch. Like they just don't have much

198
00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,559
Speaker 4: cooking on offense at all. But as you said, Joe,

199
00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:51,760
Speaker 4: the defense has been really tough, and I kind of

200
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:56,160
Speaker 4: like the under here. Like I don't like the Jaguars

201
00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 4: as much as Friedman does, but I really like the

202
00:08:58,920 --> 00:08:59,400
Speaker 4: under here.

203
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, coming off the buy too, that's always a sneaky

204
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,560
Speaker 1: one too for teams like Jacksonville. A little bit more

205
00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,720
Speaker 1: time to a little rest for Travis adm two has

206
00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,199
Speaker 1: been working real hard. Giving him a little bit of

207
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:10,800
Speaker 1: a breather probably a good thing too. We'll see if

208
00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,160
Speaker 1: he comes out fresh for this game. The Houston Texans

209
00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:16,719
Speaker 1: will go travel to Miami. Miami is seven and three

210
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,480
Speaker 1: of the Texans one eight and one. Miami is twelve

211
00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,559
Speaker 1: point home favorites in this one forty six in is

212
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,520
Speaker 1: the number if you like Houston for the upsets plus

213
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 1: four to forty. I would not recommend that investment, however,

214
00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,400
Speaker 1: Pat fitz Morris, let's talk about this as much as

215
00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,760
Speaker 1: we know that Miami is a better football team than Houston,

216
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,840
Speaker 1: and Miami can put up all kinds of crazy points.

217
00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,439
Speaker 1: It's that Miami defense I keep coming back to that

218
00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,440
Speaker 1: continues to give up big plays, give up yards. And

219
00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,280
Speaker 1: I know that the Texans are not an explosive offense

220
00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,320
Speaker 1: by any stretch of the means. But do you see

221
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,560
Speaker 1: any value here on this twelve because I don't know.

222
00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:51,480
Speaker 1: This seems like a very big number to me for

223
00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,640
Speaker 1: a defense that has been as questionable as the Miami

224
00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:55,720
Speaker 1: Dolphins have been this year.

225
00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,400
Speaker 4: It does, but the Texans have certainly been playing the

226
00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 4: part of the Tomato can uh lately, like they have

227
00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,000
Speaker 4: showed themselves to be one of the worst teams in

228
00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,440
Speaker 4: the NFL. And you know, maybe they rear up and

229
00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,080
Speaker 4: have a respectable game, like they're probably due for one.

230
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,360
Speaker 5: And I hate taking the favorite with these big numbers show.

231
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,520
Speaker 5: I just hate it. But man, the Dolphins coming off

232
00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:17,800
Speaker 5: the buy.

233
00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,840
Speaker 4: You know, Mike McDaniel is in the lab cooking up

234
00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,240
Speaker 4: some good stuff, and.

235
00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:24,600
Speaker 1: I saw him to cook up with some defense. How

236
00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,079
Speaker 1: about a little cover too, Yeah, yeah, yeah, we're thing

237
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,800
Speaker 1: to slow somebody down, which is yeah.

238
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,640
Speaker 4: Which is why I you know, I do like the

239
00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,319
Speaker 4: Dolphins a little bit, but I think I like.

240
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,079
Speaker 5: The over even more, Joe.

241
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,600
Speaker 4: And as you mentioned, uh, the Dolphins d has been

242
00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:44,079
Speaker 4: pretty pretty putrid lately, and in the last three Dolphins

243
00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 4: games we have seen fifty eight, sixty seven, and fifty

244
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,559
Speaker 4: six points. So I know the opponent has to cooperate

245
00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,640
Speaker 4: for this one to you know, hit a reasonably high total.

246
00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,560
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's going to happen, but boy, like,

247
00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 4: with a week off from McDaniel a plan, I wouldn't

248
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,160
Speaker 4: be surprised if the Dolphins came close to hitting this

249
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:05,400
Speaker 4: number by themselves.

250
00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,720
Speaker 5: So I like the Dolphins, I like the over all.

251
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,640
Speaker 1: Right, Freeman over to you. There's a big number here

252
00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 1: for the Dolphins, and I get the explosiveness. Everything Pat

253
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 1: said on offense is right. I just I can't seem

254
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,640
Speaker 1: to get past that whole thing where every time you

255
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,839
Speaker 1: think the Dolphins are in a good spot there they

256
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,839
Speaker 1: just give up too many big plays and too many points.

257
00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:24,520
Speaker 1: Do you think this twelve is safe? Do you see

258
00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,920
Speaker 1: any value here in the early look aheadline?

259
00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 3: Yeah?

260
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,800
Speaker 2: So one thing I've noticed is that my early projections

261
00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,520
Speaker 2: have tended to be a little bit too high on

262
00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,679
Speaker 2: some of the big favorites, at least based on how

263
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,360
Speaker 2: they've been able to play their games. I'm thinking of

264
00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens specifically last week, and also the Chiefs to

265
00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:47,480
Speaker 2: a degree. But this number I betted at ten on

266
00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 2: Thursday because that was just way too low. It's eleven

267
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,120
Speaker 2: and a half at some books, twelve books. Now this

268
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,040
Speaker 2: line could get to fourteen. The Texans are so bad,

269
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,640
Speaker 2: I have this projected at thirteen point seventy five. And Joe,

270
00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,320
Speaker 2: to your point about the defense for the Dolphins, Yeah,

271
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,640
Speaker 2: it has been bad, but it's been specifically bad. In

272
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,200
Speaker 2: past defense against the run, they've been tolerable. They've they've

273
00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,440
Speaker 2: been average at worst, and more like kind of the

274
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,199
Speaker 2: fringe of the top ten. And so that's you know,

275
00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,640
Speaker 2: when the Texans have had success, it's been in the

276
00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,760
Speaker 2: running game. I don't see them really being able to

277
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,679
Speaker 2: exploit the deficiencies that the Dolphins have in the secondary.

278
00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 2: So I still think defensively the Dolphins will be able

279
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,240
Speaker 2: to do enough. In offensively, I mean a total laser show.

280
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna light it up here against the Texans.

281
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,480
Speaker 1: Everything you're both saying sounds right, and in the guides

282
00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,640
Speaker 1: of football in twenty twenty two. I am going to

283
00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:41,280
Speaker 1: be on the Texans side of this game here with

284
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,400
Speaker 1: the twelve, I just I get I'm waiting for Miami

285
00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,079
Speaker 1: to put somebody away convincingly. They give up twenty four

286
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,400
Speaker 1: points a game. That's a good amount. Let's put you

287
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,560
Speaker 1: in the bottom third of the league. And I just

288
00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:52,319
Speaker 1: I feel like they're gonna be up and get lazy

289
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:52,800
Speaker 1: at the end.

290
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 2: Hey, they destroyed the Browns right before going into the buy.

291
00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 2: They did get the Browns away, But is that that

292
00:12:59,040 --> 00:12:59,480
Speaker 2: is true?

293
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,720
Speaker 1: But to me that makes it all the more ominous

294
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:03,520
Speaker 1: because then you have the sense of, yeah, we did it,

295
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,880
Speaker 1: We're awesome. It's fine. You go to the buy and

296
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:06,360
Speaker 1: you get a little lazier to come out flat or

297
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,160
Speaker 1: something like that. Twelve is a big number here. I

298
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:10,280
Speaker 1: know the Texans are dreadful, but twelve is a big number.

299
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,960
Speaker 1: Let's go to Chicago and New York. Oh man, I'm

300
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,840
Speaker 1: still trying to recover from that Jets Patriots game. That

301
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,720
Speaker 1: was woof the Chicago Bears three and eight. They are

302
00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,880
Speaker 1: four point road underdogs here. The New York Jets four

303
00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,760
Speaker 1: point home favorites. Forty four is the number plus one

304
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,920
Speaker 1: sixty five already a lot of chirping from a lot

305
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,079
Speaker 1: of people internally about what's going on here with this

306
00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:37,439
Speaker 1: Jets offense. Friedman Garrett Wilson's not happy. Elijah Moore hasn't

307
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,560
Speaker 1: been happy in months. Certainly, the Jets can't be happy

308
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,959
Speaker 1: with what Zach Wilson has not, and I will say

309
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 1: has not brought to the table at the quarterback position

310
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,360
Speaker 1: so far. So whether it's about trying to open up

311
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,640
Speaker 1: this offense or not, or letting him throw the football,

312
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,640
Speaker 1: whatever that is, it ain't happening. I don't know if

313
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:56,360
Speaker 1: we're going to see a quarterback change, but the Jets

314
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,480
Speaker 1: are very much in this They are six and four.

315
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,280
Speaker 1: I know the Fields injury has a lot to do

316
00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,960
Speaker 1: with this game. The Jets defense has been great. The

317
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 1: Jets defense is playoff caliber. The offense is woefully behind.

318
00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:08,520
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts here on this early line, because

319
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 1: I think this is one of the toughest ones I

320
00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 1: think on the entire Week twelve slate.

321
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's complicated even more by the fact

322
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 2: that Justin Fields is dealing with an injury. That for me,

323
00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,160
Speaker 2: that's the big part of this game here. If Fields

324
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 2: is healthy even if he's not healthy. But as long

325
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,520
Speaker 2: as he's out there playing, the Jets shouldn't be favored

326
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,360
Speaker 2: by four against anyone, even at home, especially Justin Fields

327
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 2: when he's you know, starting to develop into.

328
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 1: A quote unquote real quarterback.

329
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,240
Speaker 2: But if Justin Fields is out, as you mentioned, they

330
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 2: have an elite defense, the Jets and going against Trevor Simion,

331
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 2: who doesn't offer the escapability like that is what has

332
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,360
Speaker 2: made this Bears offense. The fact that Justin Fields can

333
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,960
Speaker 2: do Lamar Jackson type of things. If he's not out

334
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 2: there covering up for his offensive line, Trevor Simion will

335
00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 2: be pounded by the Jets. And the thing is, I

336
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,320
Speaker 2: don't think I would really try the Jets to be

337
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,760
Speaker 2: able to score enough points to cover.

338
00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:05,640
Speaker 3: But I don't know this line.

339
00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:09,000
Speaker 2: If it fields out, this line moves way past where

340
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:10,920
Speaker 2: it is, Like it's four, three and a half four

341
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:12,720
Speaker 2: right now, we would expect it to get to six,

342
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:14,440
Speaker 2: maybe even seven.

343
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 3: That fills too strong. Six and a half. But this,

344
00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,520
Speaker 3: if Justin Fields is in, I'm I am in on

345
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 3: the Bears in this spot all.

346
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,880
Speaker 1: Right, fits. This is kind of the gambler game. If

347
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 1: you will do you want to take the early gamble.

348
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,080
Speaker 1: Lock it in hope that Fields plays and take this

349
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 1: four or do you want to wait and see how

350
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 1: things develop, which could let this line get away from you.

351
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 4: I anticipated Fields being out on this, so I actually

352
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 4: took the Jets at three and a half and I

353
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 4: took the under at forty four and a half.

354
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:47,360
Speaker 5: So is this a.

355
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,960
Speaker 4: Revenge game for Trevor Simeon? By the way, I lost track?

356
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 4: Are the Jets one of the eight or nine teams

357
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 4: he's played for?

358
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 3: And that's a great question.

359
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,000
Speaker 1: I don't state enough money that he has no need

360
00:15:58,000 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 1: for revenge.

361
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, so worry about that. Yeah.

362
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:07,040
Speaker 4: I like it's just weird seeing Fields carted out of

363
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 4: the stadium, like with a shoulder injury.

364
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 5: That something about that, Like, you.

365
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,520
Speaker 4: Know, if if he were okay, if this was minor,

366
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:16,920
Speaker 4: like I kind of don't think they'd be taking him

367
00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 4: out on a cart. So I hope I'm wrong about that.

368
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,360
Speaker 4: I'd rather see Fields play and just lose my bets.

369
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,640
Speaker 4: But there is a chance that the Jets could still

370
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,240
Speaker 4: win this bet and hit the under even with Fields playing,

371
00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,000
Speaker 4: Although I don't believe it. I tend to agree with

372
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 4: everything Friedman said, and like if Fields were playing. I

373
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 4: think this would be I don't know what Jets minus

374
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 4: two and a half. Would that be a better line,

375
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,960
Speaker 4: so you know, in a higher total, I just think

376
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,120
Speaker 4: we're going to see the line go up towards the Jets,

377
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,280
Speaker 4: and you know, this total continue to drop.

378
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,880
Speaker 3: I think I think fits is right.

379
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:53,480
Speaker 2: And by the way I saying corrected, this is a

380
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 2: revenge game for Trevor Samian and he did get one

381
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,960
Speaker 2: start with the twenty nineteen Jets, and then that one

382
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,160
Speaker 2: start it looks like he had six pass attempts.

383
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 1: There you go, huge revenge narrative. I can't wait terist

384
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,960
Speaker 1: sidey me has Trevor Simeon, excuse me, has made nine

385
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,160
Speaker 1: point one million dollars in his career. I don't think

386
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 1: there's any reason for revenge. That might be no attempts.

387
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 5: Joey still has to borrow money from Chase Daniel.

388
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,239
Speaker 1: So that's true. That's true. I'll tell you what if

389
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 1: I'm the Jets right now, I want to see Mike White,

390
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 1: I want to see Joe Flaka, I want to see somebody.

391
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 1: I don't want to see Zach Wilson anymore. I'm sorry.

392
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 1: It's not just the Patriots it's just Zach Wilson. Let's

393
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,159
Speaker 1: take a quick break in the action to tell you

394
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,280
Speaker 1: about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. Sign up today

395
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,560
Speaker 1: with bet MGM and use that promo code betting Pros

396
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 1: when you do, and your first wager is risk free

397
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 1: up to one thousand dollars. Visit betmgm dot com for

398
00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,960
Speaker 1: terms and conditions, and don't forget to use that promo

399
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: code betting Pros. That's one word, betting pros when you

400
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 1: sign up today. Terms and conditions to apply. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Misissippi, Vada,

401
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, pert Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington,

402
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 1: d C West Virginia, Wyoming and Ontario only. Must be

403
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 1: twenty one years or older to your nineteen or older

404
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 1: and Ontario new customer offer all promotions of subject of

405
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 1: qualification and LGE Bill requirements. Rewards issued as non with

406
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 1: withdrawable free bets on site. Credit Free bets expire seven

407
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 1: days from insurance excludes Michigan dissociated persons. Please gamble responsiblely.

408
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one hundred. Next step in Arizona twenty

409
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 1: one hundred five to twour seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas,

410
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 1: Louisiana and Nevada, Wyoming or Virginia one one hundred and

411
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 1: two seven zero seven one seven for confidential help in

412
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,160
Speaker 1: Michigan one hundred gambler Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey or West

413
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred bets off in Iowa one hundred

414
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 1: nine eight one zero zero two three puert Rico called

415
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hop E n Y or text

416
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,680
Speaker 1: hop E n Y. In New York, call or text

417
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight eight nine

418
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,199
Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee or called one eight

419
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,399
Speaker 1: eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six Mississippi

420
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 1: and Ontario. You have questions, are concerns, doctor, gambling, or

421
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 1: something close to you, Please contact Connects Ontario at eight

422
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 1: six six five three one two six zero zero to

423
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: Speakwen Advisor free of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio,

424
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,400
Speaker 1: and Utah and other states where prohibitive and promotional offers

425
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,440
Speaker 1: not available in Novada and New York. And now back

426
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 1: to the action. All right, let's go to the Cincinnati

427
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 1: Bengals and the Tennessee Titans, the ugly football Titans, who

428
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 1: I continue to tell people they this is what they do.

429
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 1: I know you don't like it. I know it's no fun.

430
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,639
Speaker 1: It's not fun for fantasy or anything else. You know,

431
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 1: how to play football and win games. They're gonna be

432
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 1: at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. What we've learned, If

433
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 1: indeed you know Joe Mixon news comes out today with

434
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,920
Speaker 1: the concussion protocols and all that. Typically we don't see

435
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 1: those guys, so they could be down mixing in this game.

436
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 1: Probably still down Chase in this game, too, one would imagine.

437
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 1: So one and a half point favorites, the Bengals are

438
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 1: traveling to Tennessee. The number is forty three even money

439
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: for Tennessee to win this game. Outright, Pat, let's talk

440
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 1: about the ugly football Tennessee Titans, and ugly football has

441
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 1: resulted in the seven to three record. They are home

442
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 1: underdogs here in this contest. It's once again us against

443
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 1: the world, and the Titans keep showing up and dragging

444
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,919
Speaker 1: everyone down to their level. Plus, Tannehill looked healthier than

445
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 1: he has all seasons. So what are your thoughts on

446
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,199
Speaker 1: this one as we look ahead to a twelve.

447
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 4: Oh, my thought is that maybe Mike Vrabel is the

448
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 4: best coach in the NFL. He keeps doing this. I mean,

449
00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,200
Speaker 4: they were the number one seed in the AFC playoff

450
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 4: last year, and that team had no business being the

451
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 4: number one seed in the AFC playoffs. And they seem

452
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 4: to have lost talent on defense and on the offensive

453
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 4: line this year. And they open zero to two and

454
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 4: they've since won seven of their last eight. And it's

455
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 4: like Rabel just maximizes his talent. Like the Titans never

456
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 4: come out flat seemingly like they play. They'll have like

457
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 4: one bad game against the Colts every year for some reason.

458
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:27,679
Speaker 5: And that's it.

459
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 4: But like they totally maximize their talent. I mean, the

460
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,239
Speaker 4: Packers didn't even play a bad game. I thought this

461
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,879
Speaker 4: past Thursday night, like not a terrible game, and the

462
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 4: Titans just the exactly and the.

463
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 5: Titans totally wore them down.

464
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 4: So my first instinct was to like the over here,

465
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,400
Speaker 4: because you know, the Bengals are explosive and the Titans

466
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 4: are just efficient. But over the nice little eight game

467
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 4: stretch the Titans have played, there have not been more

468
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,239
Speaker 4: than forty six points scored in any Tennessee game, so

469
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 4: in three of those there were fewer than thirty points scored,

470
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 4: so that the Titans have been an under team. But

471
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 4: then again, it's it's kind of the uh, you know,

472
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 4: like clash of styles here, because the Bengals last five

473
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 4: games fifty six, fifty two, forty five, sixty three and

474
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 4: sixty seven points. So maybe a struggle of wills here.

475
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 4: As far as which side you like, I'm at the total.

476
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 4: I'm leaning a little bit toward the under here, and

477
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 4: I like the Titans at home. I mean, it feels

478
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 4: disrespectful for them to be a home dog, to be honest.

479
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: It does a little bit, but it plays into Mike

480
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,239
Speaker 1: Rabel's narrative. I'm not surprised if Mike Rabel took a

481
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: flight to Vegas said, here's a couple million bucks, make

482
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 1: us underdog in this game, because it feels like that's

483
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 1: exactly where he wants to be, exactly the narrative.

484
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 5: The worst they they should be a pick him at worst,

485
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 5: I think.

486
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 1: Well, but and to that point, Freeman is the best

487
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,919
Speaker 1: bet right now just to take the even money. You

488
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: can get the Titans to win outright and move on.

489
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably I have this projected at point five, so

490
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: I do see the Bengals as ever so slight favorites

491
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 2: in this game. But I am showing value on tennessee

492
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 2: here from you one and a half to point five.

493
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 2: The thing is, you know, pragmatically, there's not much of

494
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 2: a difference between those two numbers. So yeah, if you're

495
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 2: going to bet on the Titans, and I do see, like, yeah,

496
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 2: the Titans, this is the type of this is the

497
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 2: spot Mike Rabel as an underdog, Rabel at home.

498
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 3: This is this is the Titans spot. I looked at these.

499
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 2: Two teams and I think, man, like, the Bengals should

500
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 2: be able to smoke them. Like, if any team blows

501
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: out one of these teams, it is the Bengals blowing

502
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 2: out the Titans. But if the Titans win, it's almost

503
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 2: guaranteed to be a close game. Like that is the

504
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 2: type of like discrepancy we see, but the frequency in

505
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 2: which we see those outcomes happen. I think we see

506
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 2: the Titans winning this game much more than we see

507
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 2: the Bengals blowing out. So I am I haven't bet

508
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 2: it yet because again I don't see much difference between

509
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 2: one and a half and point five.

510
00:22:57,800 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 3: But I do see value on the Titans here.

511
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 1: All right. If you want to see blowouts, by the way,

512
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 1: stay tuned. We've got one coming up for you. Oh yeah,

513
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 1: let's get the Kansas City. But first let's get to Washington.

514
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: Six and five. The Commanders are at home three and

515
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: a half point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, who somehow

516
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 1: continued to be relevant and hanging on, which is super

517
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 1: frustrating for everybody. But here they are. Forty three is

518
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 1: the number plus one forty on the money line if

519
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,239
Speaker 1: you like the Falcons. So Friedman, let's talk about this one.

520
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 1: So they're giving a little bit of respect to Washington,

521
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: not a whole lot, understandably. So the one thing I

522
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: think we can all agree on that Washington run defense

523
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 1: is for real montes. Sweat has had a fantastic bounce

524
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 1: back season after last year being a little lackluster. So

525
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: the defensive lines played really well. Games get one or

526
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 1: lost down in the trenches. And I feel like when

527
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: Washington wins, it's because they're winning upfront. Do you think

528
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: that this is a spot here where they can win

529
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: upfront and win this game against the Falcons?

530
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 2: I have Washington and Atlanta power rated basically right next

531
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 2: to each other. And yes, the Washington run defense has

532
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: been good, but Atlanta is one of the best running

533
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: offenses in the league. So I don't think Washington, even

534
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 2: at home, should be favored by three and a half.

535
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 2: So I'm seeing value on Atlanta here. I have this

536
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,360
Speaker 2: at one point seventy five. Maybe I'm a little too

537
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 2: tight on that spread, but even if it should be

538
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: two and a half going through the key number three,

539
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: I think there's value here. So I am on the

540
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 2: Falcons at plus three and a half.

541
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: Yes, they are one of the more prolific running teams,

542
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: but a lot of that is based in value, not

543
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 1: so much the volume, I should say, excuse me, not

544
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 1: so much an efficiency all the time. That's where I

545
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: get concerned. If this is what they want to do

546
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: and they keep doing it over and over and over

547
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 1: again and running up against the brick wall, can they change?

548
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: Can they pivot? Pat fitz Morris? Can Atlanta change their

549
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 1: identity if who they are doesn't work against Washington in

550
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 1: the first half of this game? I don't think So

551
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: this is a game I'm staying away from. But do

552
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: you see any value early on well?

553
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,719
Speaker 5: First, they cannot change their identity at all, Jo.

554
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 4: I mean, try putting Marcus Mariota in a game where

555
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 4: he has to drop and throw forty times. The results

556
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 4: are not going to be pretty there, So they cannot

557
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 4: change their identity. Yes, the Washington run defense has been fierce.

558
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 4: That's one of the reasons I like the Commanders a

559
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: little bit.

560
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 5: In this game.

561
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 4: I like my value on them is like about minus

562
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 4: three point seventy five. I like them just a little bit.

563
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 4: But I've been really impressed with Washington the last two weeks.

564
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 4: They obviously beat the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles on the road

565
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 4: in prime time. Then against the Texans this past week,

566
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 4: they did what you're supposed to do against a bad team.

567
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 4: They took out the trash and we're never seriously threatened. So, like,

568
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 4: do we have to reassess how good the Commanders are

569
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 4: because I'm starting to think they're a pretty good team.

570
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 4: I mean, they've got this very underrated defense. You talked

571
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 4: about how tough the run defense, Joe has been, and

572
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 4: really the pass defense hasn't been bad either. They have

573
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 4: at least a functional running game and a functional passing

574
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 4: game on offense. Yeah, so you know they're they're somewhat versatile,

575
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: Like I'm starting to think this might be a good team,

576
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 4: like a sneaky good team, And I don't know, it's

577
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 4: easy to underrate the Falcons, Like no one really likes

578
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 4: the way they play, and.

579
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: They keep coming up with w's. That's that's the weird

580
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: thing about it. Kind of grinning like the Grinch over

581
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 1: here when you're talking about they might be a good team.

582
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,719
Speaker 1: I'm kind of with I think, I don't know, they

583
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: might be a good team, but I think we have

584
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: to realize they're better than we've given them credit for,

585
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: or at least this version of them that we've seen

586
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 1: in the last month is better. And they believe in

587
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke. I mean, these guys play for him, So

588
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: whether he's great or not, we can debate that all day.

589
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 1: But sometimes there's the intangibles a quarterback, which is the leadership,

590
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,239
Speaker 1: which is you know, people rallying behind, believing in it,

591
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: and you keep winning. I mean sometimes that just carries over.

592
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers could not win last night. They blew

593
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: a lead to the Kansas City Chiefs. They will take

594
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: on Arizona this week. Arizona obviously We're gonna have lots

595
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: of questions still about them after tonight's game. They are

596
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: three point home underdogs, though Arizona is in this contest. Here,

597
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: the Chargers are favored by three forty seven and a

598
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 1: half is the number plus one thirty on the money

599
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 1: line for the Arizona Cardinals. Pat, do you see any

600
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: early value in this one to lock this in before

601
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 1: it changes or do you want to wait and get

602
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 1: more information as the week unfolds.

603
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've already bet the Chargers, but I'm not gonna lie.

604
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 4: I'm a little bit nervous about it because the last

605
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 4: time the Chargers fought valiantly and lost to the Chiefs

606
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 4: was that Thursday night game in Week two, and I

607
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 4: remember thinking, like, man, if not for that long, what

608
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 4: was it like a ninety nine yard interception return for

609
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 4: a touchdown? The Chargers should have won that game. I

610
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 4: thought they looked terrific on offense and defense in that game.

611
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 4: And then they turned around and lost thirty eight to

612
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 4: ten to the Jaguars in Week three, and you know,

613
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 4: I quickly dismissed thoughts of the Chargers being a yable

614
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 4: Super Bowl contender. They look terrific again. Against the Chiefs

615
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 4: this week, and like, I want to believe it, but

616
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 4: I don't know. And now Mike Williams is maybe her again,

617
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 4: and like that's a key weapon for them. I know

618
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 4: safety this year. Adderley went down yesterday, So I want

619
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 4: to get back on board the Charger bandwagon, but I

620
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 4: don't know if it's the smart move. I already have

621
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 4: gotten on the bandwagon for this game, and maybe I'm

622
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 4: walking into another bear trap just like I did in

623
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 4: Week three.

624
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: Well, and the charge is already down j C. Jackson

625
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: for the year, so the secondary really can't stand to

626
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: take a lot more hits here. I've fried been any

627
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 1: early value in this game for you as you're looking ahead.

628
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember last week we were thinking about Houston.

629
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: It's like, oh, there might be some value on Houston,

630
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: and we said, wait, like, let's wait, let's see what

631
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: happens with the Commanders on Monday Night football. This line

632
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: might get to three and a half. We were right,

633
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,959
Speaker 2: and yet we were also oh so wrong in the

634
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 2: final outcome of that. But it's I think a similar

635
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: situation tonight. I think I'm going to wait to see

636
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 2: what happens with the forty nine Ers and the Arizona Cardinals.

637
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 2: I'm showing value on Arizona, but I think there's a

638
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 2: decent chances number gets to three and a half. And

639
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: if it gets to three and a half, then I

640
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 2: will probably be betting the Cardinals Cardinals as underdogs. That's

641
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 2: a situation where I typically want to be the same time,

642
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 2: I feel disgusting about it. So even if it gets

643
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:21,479
Speaker 2: to three and a half, I don't know how I'm

644
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: going to be doing it, but I'm definitely not doing

645
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: it at quote unquote just three.

646
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 4: I love how slavishly Friedman always follows the kings Furry

647
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 4: code no matter what that kings Ferry is a dog

648
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 4: that against Kingsberry is a favorite. He is just locked

649
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 4: in and like, can't be can't be swayed off that stance, and.

650
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: I can I can't.

651
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: It's especially when it's Kingsbury as a road dog. That's

652
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 2: really where I want to be on it. At a

653
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: home dog.

654
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 3: Gets a little bit of a coin flip.

655
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Let's go to Las Vegas and Seattle. This

656
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: one's in Seattle. The Seahawks are three and a half

657
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: point favorites in this one. Forty seven and a half

658
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: is the number plus one sixty two for the Las

659
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: Vegas rate on the money line, Freedman, when you're looking

660
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: at this contest Seattle coming off of buye Vegas, coming

661
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: off a win, do you see any early value in

662
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: the look ahead?

663
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 3: Yeah? I bet this on Thursday.

664
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 2: I believe at three and a half the number is

665
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: still three and a half. I was expecting the Raiders

666
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: to get shellacked and so I thought this number would

667
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 2: move more.

668
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 3: It hasn't.

669
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 2: But I saw this projected at four and a half,

670
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: and I think there's there's room for this number to

671
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 2: move from there. I don't think it's going to move

672
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 2: down to three. And I think Seattle at home, coming

673
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: off of the bye, they are going to bang.

674
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 3: The Raiders like a drum.

675
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 2: This is I think a spot where the Raiders just

676
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: totally fall apart after a come from behind overtime victory

677
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: on the road against the Broncos.

678
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: I think this is where they fall apart.

679
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: That do you agree?

680
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 4: I do.

681
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 5: I've got this.

682
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 4: I think Seattle should be favored by like five and

683
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 4: a half or six. I think this is like the

684
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 4: best value on the board early this week, and I've

685
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 4: already hit it. I don't understand the line, like, it's

686
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 4: a lot of respect for the Raiders, and the.

687
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 5: Raiders or the Broncos were one of my best bets

688
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 5: this past week.

689
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 4: I got burned on that the Broncos feeble offense was

690
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 4: unable to take advantage of a Raiders defense ranked dead

691
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 4: last in DVA. I think Seattle is going to do

692
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 4: a better job against that defense. I will say though

693
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 4: the Raiders offense, considering, you know, some of the losses

694
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 4: they've had Hunter Renfro, Darren Waller, like they are for

695
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: having like Josh Jacobs and DeVante Adams as Derek Carr's

696
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 4: only weapon. Like that offensive line has played great. Carmen Brisillo,

697
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 4: I think is their offensive line coach, Like they have overachieved.

698
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 4: I thought that was going to be one of the

699
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 4: worst offensive lines, one of the worst lines in the

700
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 4: league this year, and it has not been the case

701
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 4: at all.

702
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 5: It's been a strength. Still. I like Seattle in this

703
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 5: game to cover pretty easily.

704
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, here you go. I teased it here. It is

705
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs eight and two at home, fourteen

706
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams are defending reigning

707
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: undisputed or maybe very disputed. Now super Bowl Champions. Possibly

708
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: no Stafford, definitely no Cup, could be a third string

709
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: quarterback for all we know. By the time we get here,

710
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 1: things have not gone well for the Los Angeles Rams,

711
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: and now they are running into most likely MVP candidate

712
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,239
Speaker 1: because I've seen now this morning that Mahomes number has

713
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: gone to the negative. So that ship has sailed. Talked

714
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 1: about it on the last week's show, talked about it

715
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 1: on the Thursday Night Football to go lock it in it

716
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: so the last time you're going to see it, it's

717
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: gone now. Sorry, folks, the positive is gone. But here

718
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: we are. Fourteen's a big number. I don't care. It

719
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: might not be big enough. Pat fitz Morris, what do

720
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: you think about this line? Here? The total, the value?

721
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: Where are you at here with the Kansas City Chiefs

722
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: in which should be an absolute smash for Mahomes and company?

723
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 5: It might not be big enough.

724
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 4: I agree with you on that, Joe. I took it

725
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 4: at fourteen. I wanted to get it before it went

726
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 4: any higher than that. And I've been burned betting the

727
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 4: Chiefs his big home favorites before. Seems like I get

728
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 4: burned on that more often than not. But man against

729
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 4: this Rams team. I'm pretty good with it, like the Rams' really.

730
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: More hesitant like you, because I've been there too. We've

731
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: seen it. We've seen it in playoff games too, where

732
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: they have a pretty good opponent and you're like, oh,

733
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: this should be a smash, and then all of a

734
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: sudden it gets real close.

735
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: There was it the.

736
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: Texans a few years back. I want to say, but

737
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson is at the game. I'll remember. I remember

738
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: some game where it got really quick close and nobody

739
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: thought it was going to be Friedman, What about you?

740
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: This number is big at fourteen? Could it growier as

741
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: your heart grows as I called you the grinch earlier

742
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: three sizes, as we get closer to the holidays.

743
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: Yes, this number could get larger. I do have it

744
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: projected exactly at fourteen. Shout out me. I bet it's

745
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 2: ten and a half in the look at that market.

746
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 2: Because I knew that this number would would get bigger.

747
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: I have this segment called shout out me, where Friedman

748
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: lauds his own glorious moves here in the betting market.

749
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 2: I love that phrase, totally ripped it from Adam Levittan.

750
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: But I gotta say, even though I have this at

751
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: ten and a half, like logged in the betting pros

752
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,959
Speaker 2: app Like, I don't feel great about it because we've seen,

753
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: you know, historically, the Chiefs have been a win but

754
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 2: not cover type of team. Like they're like a pitcher

755
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 2: who like is intentionally not throwing his fastball as hard

756
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 2: as he could, so that like a couple of pitches

757
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: a game when he needs to really amp up the throw,

758
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 2: he can do it. Like, the Chiefs are not playing

759
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 2: every game to try to cover, They are playing just

760
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 2: to try to win by enough. So like, yeah, the

761
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: Rams are horrible. The Chiefs should on paper be able

762
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 2: to cover fourteen. They should definitely be able to cover

763
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: the ten and a half that I have, but that

764
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: doesn't mean that they're going to do it.

765
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 3: And I can't see how this gets back.

766
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 1: Door fair enough, Let's go to New Orleans and San Francisco.

767
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: This one's in San Franz. We'll see what they bring tonight,

768
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 1: but right now they are eight and a half point

769
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints

770
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: get a victory with Andy Dalton under center. I don't

771
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: know if there's a quarterback controversy or not. But I mean,

772
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 1: at this point it seems to be Andy Dalton week

773
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: to week at least we're looking at so obviously a

774
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: pretty large number here, but still San Francisco plays very

775
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: good defense. Forty two is the number plus three hundred

776
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 1: for the Saints upset. On the money line, we're looking

777
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 1: at this one. Friedman, what are your thoughts on San

778
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: fran New Orleans as we kind of are waiting to

779
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: see what San Francisco comes out with tonight on Monday Night,

780
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: but also looking ahead to the contest against New Orleans.

781
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, fits can probably tell you what I've already done.

782
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 2: You know, I am a very simple man. I have

783
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 2: a few codes I live by. You know, if it's Kingsbury,

784
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: if it's Shanahan, Like, you know what I'm doing. Shanahan

785
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 2: as a home favorite, I'm just basically going to auto

786
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 2: bet against him any opportunity.

787
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 3: I have.

788
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 2: My fear is that I bet this too quickly at

789
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: eight and a half, because this number could be ten,

790
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 2: like depending on what San Francisco does tonight, it could

791
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 2: be ten, but I have value on it eight and

792
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 2: a half. I have this projected at seven point twenty five,

793
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: So I went ahead and bet at eight and a half,

794
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: Kyle Shahan as a home favorite eight sixteen in two

795
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 2: against this breton for his career, Andy Dalton, not like

796
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 2: I'm thrilled with him, but he was at least functional

797
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 2: this past week, and as an underdog for his career,

798
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:15,240
Speaker 2: he has been profitable. So I'm I'm fine with be

799
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 2: betting on the Saints in this spot.

800
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: All right?

801
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:18,439
Speaker 3: Pat?

802
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: Are you fine with betting on the Saints in this spot?

803
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: And the Saints are also down a bunch of linebackers

804
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 1: and some other injuries too this week that they had.

805
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: All those guys will get healthy enough in time.

806
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm fine with it.

807
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 4: And for many hours of talking NFL gambling with Matthew

808
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 4: Friedman over the course of the season, I have already

809
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 4: sort of mapped up the strategy of waiting for this game.

810
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 4: And you know, hopefully with Kyler Murray out, the Cardinals

811
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 4: are going to get trucked.

812
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 5: The forty nine ers are going to gain a couple of.

813
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 4: Points in the line here, and I will go against

814
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 4: Shanahan as a home favorite.

815
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 5: Freedman has taught me that very well.

816
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 4: I'm kind of struggling, like it feels like this should

817
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 4: be an over game. I kind of feel like a

818
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 4: forty game in the low forties feels like an overgame.

819
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: But I worry a little bit about the Saints helping

820
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 4: push this game over. Like in their first three games,

821
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 4: the Saints had fifty three or more points scored total

822
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 4: in those games. Since then, Saints games in their last four,

823
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: I think it produced twenty four, forty thirty, and forty

824
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 4: seven points. And the forty seven was weirdly against the

825
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 4: Rams and their dysfunctional offense. So I'm not hugely confident

826
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 4: about the over, but I do think there's a little

827
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 4: bit of value there.

828
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. We got two games remaining.

829
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 1: The Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football will head to Philadelphia.

830
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 1: The Eagles are nine to one. The pack is four

831
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 1: and seven, six and a half point favorites. The Eagles

832
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: are at home with a forty five as the over under.

833
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 1: If you like the Green Bay Packers and the money lines,

834
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: plus two to thirty five. Pat Fitzmorris, six and a

835
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: half is the number here you mentioned that you fell to.

836
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: The green Bay has been playing better of late. Certainly

837
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 1: they've discovered Christian Watson, so that's a pause, but not

838
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: to be patronizing. Can they match up here on the

839
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: road against the Eagles after the Eagles have, I think

840
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 1: have been checked a little bit recently, which I think

841
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 1: is kind of good and healthy. This is a team

842
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 1: that it doesn't know what it's like to be up

843
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: at the top, and when you're up at the top,

844
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: everybody's gunning for you. I feel like these last two

845
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: weeks to kind of prove in. That was a big

846
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 1: win for them in Indianapolis because they came at them

847
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: with everything they had in the first half of this

848
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: game and they survived it in the second half. Do

849
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: you think now the Eagles will be prepared for Aaron

850
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:29,879
Speaker 1: Rodgers and company on Sunday Night.

851
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 5: That's a good question, Joe.

852
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 4: It seems like their offense has sprung some leaks, and

853
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:39,799
Speaker 4: like the Green Bay defense disappointing this year, but still respectable.

854
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 4: So like, I don't know if the Eagles offense is

855
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 4: suddenly going to find what they had going earlier in

856
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 4: the season and you get all the pistons firing or not.

857
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 5: I do know.

858
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 4: I don't want to bet the Eagles at minus six

859
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 4: and a half on DraftKings, at least that has been

860
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 4: juiced towards the Eagle, and it was my minus one

861
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:03,479
Speaker 4: twenty to bet the Eagles at six and a half.

862
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 4: So no way I want to do that. I want

863
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 4: to see if this moves to seven. I'd maybe be

864
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 4: willing to uh put a small bet down on the

865
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 4: Eagles at seven. Like, I don't think the Packers are

866
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 4: going to win this game dangerous as a touchdown underdog,

867
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 4: but I still think the Eagles would be the better

868
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 4: percentage play in that situation. I do like the over

869
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 4: here though, because of the Packers newfound weaponry with Christian Watson.

870
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,439
Speaker 4: You know, I think they could get into a little

871
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 4: bit of a shootout and put up some points against

872
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 4: the Eagles if the Eagles are willing to cooperate and

873
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 4: you know, get the offense back together again.

874
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: Freeman, do you see any danger opportunities in this game?

875
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 2: I honestly don't have anything to say about this. I've

876
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: just projected at six point twenty five. So in theory,

877
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 2: a little bit of value on Green Bay, and you know,

878
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 2: there is a seven floating out there, and so you know,

879
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 2: I guess maybe there's some value taking it, but I

880
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: don't feel great about it.

881
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 3: I'm probably staying away from this on the side and

882
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 3: the total.

883
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts

884
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 1: Monday night football. Steelers are three and seven. They were

885
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 1: ahead at the half there can you picking company, great crowd,

886
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: everybody was really into it, and unfortunately things just kind

887
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: of fell apart there in the second half of them.

888
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: Same could be said of the Indianapolis Colts. There. Both

889
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: these teams I think are giving you effort. So this

890
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: is a fascinating one because you got the Colts a

891
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites, which makes sense. Maybe

892
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: that's actually not enough respect for the Colts, some might argue,

893
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,439
Speaker 1: which I might argue that when I say some people,

894
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 1: I really mean me. And then you've got thirty nine

895
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: and a half as the over under. If you like

896
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: the upset of the Pittsburgh Seeers at plus one sixteen,

897
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 1: having watched both these teams so much this year, do

898
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 1: you think that their number one is any early value

899
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 1: in this line? At number two? Do you think the

900
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: Colts aren't getting enough respect here?

901
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I've moved the Colts up significantly over the

902
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,399
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks just based on what we've seen

903
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 2: in the return of Matt Ryan and you know, playing

904
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 2: very well against the Eagles in a game they could

905
00:40:59,480 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: have won.

906
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 3: So yeah, I've I've moved them up quite a bit.

907
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 2: That said, I so I do have them projected at

908
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 2: three and a half. So I am showing slight value

909
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 2: here at two and a half at some books, three

910
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,919
Speaker 2: at other books. I bet this in the early look

911
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: ahead market Pittsburgh plus three because I just didn't have

912
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 2: respect for the Colts. And then you know, now that

913
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 2: I've adjusted the Colts based on what they did, I'm

914
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 2: showing value on the Colts. But that said, I still

915
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 2: don't want to bet it. Like, I still don't like.

916
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 2: I still don't like the idea of betting on the Colts. Like,

917
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 2: you know, we've seen them in two games under their

918
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: new regime. I don't think they should be favored against anyone.

919
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 2: They were underdogs, significant underdogs in both of those games.

920
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,919
Speaker 2: There's a pretty big difference between covering as underdogs and

921
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 2: you know, winning as favorites, and I just don't see them.

922
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 2: I don't see them convincingly doing that in this spot.

923
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, they did cover as underdogs against the

924
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles, who are a nine win football team. So

925
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 1: how far does that go for you, PAPIs Morris when

926
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: you're trying to have you wait, the Colts on Monday

927
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: Night football.

928
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 5: Not far enough, Joe.

929
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 4: I've sort of swore off betting Colts games a few

930
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 4: weeks ago because they were so yes, yes, and like

931
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 4: they're partnered with it another team I kind of don't

932
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 4: want to bet on after being on the wrong side

933
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:18,959
Speaker 4: of them a few times, the Steelers. I do feel

934
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 4: like both of these teams are starting to become a

935
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 4: little more predictable though, Like, at least the Colts have

936
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 4: sort of established a brand of Jeff's Saturday Ball and uh,

937
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 4: you know, it's it's.

938
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: Shirts to say, any given Saturday, can we start selling those?

939
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: I think we can make a killing on that.

940
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, I mean it's it's more appealing than Frank

941
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 4: Reich football, I'll tell you that. And like Pittsburgh, all

942
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 4: of a sudden, Pittsburgh is running the ball a little

943
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 4: bit and the Colts are still without Jack Leonard and

944
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 4: Quitty pay presumably they want to have Quitty payback this

945
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 4: this week. So I don't know, like it, Yeah, I

946
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 4: can't play this game. The line feels right to me.

947
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 5: The total feels right to me, you know, like I

948
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 5: just kind of want to watch this from afar.

949
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 4: But this game is not as disgusting to me as

950
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 4: it would have been about three weeks ago.

951
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: Fair enough, and Nwagie Harris back to back games with

952
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 1: twenty carries his best game arguably all year yesterday too.

953
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 1: So there you have it. That's the early look ahead.

954
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: And again, if you want the fold breakdown for the

955
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving slate, make sure you subscribe to Betting Pros. Wherever

956
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, make sure you subscribe to our

957
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: YouTube channel, Betting Pros as well. That way, Matt and

958
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 1: Pat will break it all down for you, give you

959
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: exactly where to look, the props, the lines, everything in

960
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 1: between for your Turkey Day football. But that, my friends,

961
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 1: is the early look ahead to week twelve. We hope

962
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,720
Speaker 1: you enjoyed it. Go download that bet MGM app today

963
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:43,839
Speaker 1: and go place your wagers. That'll do it for us.

964
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Pat

965
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: Fitzmorris and Matthew Friedman. I'm Joey p. We'll see you

966
00:43:48,719 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: next time, kids,