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Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on

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Speaker 1: the bn EF podcast. Every year, BNF releases its Energy

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Speaker 1: Transition Investment Trends Report, which is our definitive resource on

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Speaker 1: global investment in the low carbon energy transition and the

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Speaker 1: sectors that are central to it. Since twenty fourteen, when

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Speaker 1: b and EF tracked three hundred and thirteen billion in

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Speaker 1: transition investment volumes, we have seen continuous and rapid annual

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Speaker 1: growth that broke through the one trillion dollar mark in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one and reached a record one point five

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Speaker 1: trillion in twenty twenty two. So how about twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: will it be another record year for energy transition investment

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Speaker 1: and which sectors saw the greatest growth and perhaps declines.

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Speaker 1: To discuss the findings for the Energy Transition Investment Trends

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Speaker 1: Report today, I am joined by BNF's Deputy CEO, Albert

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Speaker 1: Chung and the head of Technology and Innovation Mark Daily. Together,

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Speaker 1: we look at which sectors received the largest volumes of

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Speaker 1: investment in twenty twenty three and whether the renw global

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Speaker 1: energy industry, which has historically been the main driver, was

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Speaker 1: able to hold off electric vehicles at the top of

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Speaker 1: the table, we also review global clean tech supply chain

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Speaker 1: investment and following booms in protection capacity, we want to

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Speaker 1: know whether they've already achieved the investment required to meet

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Speaker 1: twenty thirty net zero targets for battery and solar factories.

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Speaker 1: And finally, we review if climate tech equity financing rebounded

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Speaker 1: last year following declines in twenty twenty two, and for

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Speaker 1: the first time, we review a new category debt issuance

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Speaker 1: for the energy transition. To access the Energy Transition Investment

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Speaker 1: Trends report, B andF subscribers can find it on BENF

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Speaker 1: dot com or at benfgo on the Bloomberg terminal. If

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Speaker 1: you like this podcast, make sure to subscribe, and if

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Speaker 1: you want to make it discoverable by other people, give

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Speaker 1: us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. But right now,

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Speaker 1: let's hear from Albert and Mark about the Energy transition

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Speaker 1: investment trends for twenty twenty three. Mark, thank you for

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Speaker 1: joining today.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, lovely to be here.

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Speaker 1: Dana and Albert, thank you for coming back on the show.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: So we're here talking about the energy transition investment trends

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Speaker 1: for this previous year. And the first thing I really

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Speaker 1: want to know is what question were we trying to

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Speaker 1: answer when we look at energy Transition Investment trends? What

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Speaker 1: are you hoping to find when putting that data together

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Speaker 1: and having a moment to kind of take a step

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Speaker 1: back and give it an annual refresh.

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Speaker 3: So, Energy Transition Investment Trends is this report we do

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Speaker 3: every year. We've done it every year since I've been

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Speaker 3: at the firm, which is fifteen years, and the data

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Speaker 3: goes back twenty years. And the question we're trying to

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Speaker 3: answer is where is the money flowing in the low

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Speaker 3: carbon transition? And you know, we've always had this philosophy

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Speaker 3: at New Energy Finance back in the day and BNF

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Speaker 3: over the last decade at a bit that if you

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Speaker 3: follow the money, it tells you a lot about where

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Speaker 3: the opportunities are, It tells you where the interest is,

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Speaker 3: it tells you where the action is, and also tells

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Speaker 3: you whether you're going fast enough. And that's we exploring

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Speaker 3: the report as well.

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Speaker 1: So investment is a broad term. Can you define what

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Speaker 1: exactly we're looking at when we're following the money?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Sure. So in the report we track four different types

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Speaker 3: of funding flows. The biggest category is what we call

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Speaker 3: energy transition investment, and that's money being spent to deploy

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Speaker 3: clean technology and infrastructure, so renewable energy plant, electric vehicles,

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Speaker 3: and so on. Then we have clean energy supply chain investment,

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Speaker 3: and that is money being spent to build factories for

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Speaker 3: wind and solar equipment, hydrogen electrialized as batteries, and also

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Speaker 3: mines and refineries for battery metals. So that's category two.

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Speaker 3: Category three is climate tech equity raising or equity finance,

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Speaker 3: and that's new equity being raised by companies in the

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Speaker 3: climate and energy transition space. And then finally, the fourth area,

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Speaker 3: which is new this year we haven't done before, is

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Speaker 3: debt issuance for the energy transition. So that's debt being

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Speaker 3: raised by companies and by governments for energy transition purposes

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Speaker 3: to fund operations in clean energy or to fund investment

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Speaker 3: into clean energy projects.

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Speaker 1: What was the reason to add debt, It was really.

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Speaker 3: The missing piece of the puzzle. The first two categories

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Speaker 3: are you know, think about the energy transition investment and

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Speaker 3: the clean and just supply chain investment. Those are kind

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Speaker 3: of real assets being built on the ground. And the

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Speaker 3: last two debt and equity are how is the money

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Speaker 3: being raised to fund those things? And so we always

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Speaker 3: had the equity piece, We've had that for many years,

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Speaker 3: and we just wanted to add in the debt piece

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Speaker 3: to really round out the whole picture.

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Speaker 1: So if we're not talking about emissions in whether or

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Speaker 1: not we're going at the rate of change that is

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Speaker 1: required to achieve certain outcome, we're really thinking about how

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Speaker 1: much money is going and how it compares to previous years.

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Speaker 1: So if we're looking at this volume of money in

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Speaker 1: many years in absolute terms, these are new records being set.

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Speaker 1: So if we're comparing twenty twenty three to other years,

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Speaker 1: would you consider it to be a good year in

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Speaker 1: terms of overall investment? And I guess we can break

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Speaker 1: it down into some of the different areas that you're

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Speaker 1: specifically looking at.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, So just looking at the energy transition investment piece,

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Speaker 3: deployment of clean tech, deployment clean infrastructure. It's a really

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Speaker 3: good news story. We saw one point eight trillion dollars

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Speaker 3: invested in twenty twenty three. That one point eight trillion

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Speaker 3: is really the headline number that we that we lead with,

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Speaker 3: So if you're listening, remember that that's the number that matters.

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Speaker 3: That one point eight trillion dollars is up seventeen percent

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Speaker 3: since the year before, since twenty twenty two. It's almost

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Speaker 3: doubled since twenty twenty which is only three years ago.

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Speaker 3: So you know, it gives you an idea of the

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Speaker 3: pace of change in the energy transition. And that one

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Speaker 3: point it trillion is not only a record year in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, but it's the tenth record year in

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Speaker 3: a row. So again that gives you something of an

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Speaker 3: idea of the size and scale and momentum of the

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Speaker 3: opportunities in the energy transition. I can say a bit

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Speaker 3: about the individual sectors because within that one point eight trillion,

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Speaker 3: there are ten different sectors that we track. I'm not

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Speaker 3: going to talk about all of them, but the largest

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Speaker 3: this year is electrified transport, and that's all of your

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Speaker 3: sales of evs including two and three wheelers, cars, buses, trucks,

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Speaker 3: the associated charging infrastructure for all of those as well,

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Speaker 3: and a small amount of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as

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Speaker 3: well in there. That's now six hundred and thirty four billion,

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Speaker 3: so it's like a third of the total energy transition spending.

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Speaker 3: It jumped thirty six percent last year, which is really great.

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Speaker 3: I mean, shows how fast the EV transition is going,

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Speaker 3: and it overtook renewable energy. For years and years, as

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Speaker 3: long as we've been doing this, renewable energy was the

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Speaker 3: largest sector. Transport is now the largest sector, and I

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Speaker 3: think that was really interesting. But renewable energy also had

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Speaker 3: a good year. Renewbal energy is up eight percent this year.

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Speaker 3: It's now I think six or twenty three billion, to

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Speaker 3: be exact. And one of the kind of underreported stories

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Speaker 3: within the data is that the wind sector actually had

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Speaker 3: a record year of investment in twenty twenty three. Despite

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Speaker 3: everything we saw around project cancelations of us offshoal wind projects,

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Speaker 3: failed auctions here and there, actually the wind sector had

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Speaker 3: a great year, new projects reaching final investment decisions. So

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Speaker 3: really great to see that.

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Speaker 2: Can I also add a point. I think the headline

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Speaker 2: dollar investment numbers always paint a really positive picture. They've

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Speaker 2: been increasing for so many years, But in all of

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Speaker 2: these different sectors, the costs of all these assets are

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Speaker 2: actually declining at the same time, so investments up every year.

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Speaker 2: But that's actually each individual dollar is deploying more and

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Speaker 2: more assets every year.

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Speaker 3: And actually, you know, one of the other really interesting

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Speaker 3: stories is that we're starting to see some of the

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Speaker 3: smaller sectors start to scale up. So I'm talking about

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Speaker 3: areas like hydrogen and carbon capture, which historically have been

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Speaker 3: pretty small parts of this. This total hydrogen investment tripled

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Speaker 3: last year to ten billion ccs investment nearly doubled, it's

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Speaker 3: now eleven billion dollars, and energy storajet is now thirty

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Speaker 3: six billion dollars grew seventy six percent last year. So

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Speaker 3: if you look at the charts and the report, which

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Speaker 3: I encourage you to do, there's a free version of

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Speaker 3: a bridge version of the report you can find or

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Speaker 3: or for clients, you can find it on the BNF platform.

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Speaker 3: You know, some of these slivers are actually a bit

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Speaker 3: too small to see because the renewables and electric vehicles

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Speaker 3: and power grades are so big, but they're growing really quickly,

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Speaker 3: hydrogen ccas doubling, tripling, and I think that's really encouraging

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Speaker 3: for where we need to get to by twenty thirty

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Speaker 3: in terms of commercializing those technologies.

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Speaker 1: Now Geographically, one of the markets that's adapting things like

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles and renewable energy at real scale is China,

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Speaker 1: and you really can't understand the energy transition story without

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Speaker 1: really taking a closer look at China. So let's do

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Speaker 1: that right now. First of all, what is the role

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Speaker 1: of China. What is the magnitude of their investment versus

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world.

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Speaker 3: So China is thirty eight percent of the energy transition

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Speaker 3: investment total this year, so thirty eight percent by far

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Speaker 3: the largest market, and that's because as a region, as

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Speaker 3: a strategy, China has said, we want to be the

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Speaker 3: leaders in renewable energy technology, when we want to be

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Speaker 3: the leaders in electric vehicle technology, and there's been just

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Speaker 3: very consistent support over many years to grow those industries,

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Speaker 3: and so China's streets ahead of everybody else. So just

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Speaker 3: to maybe talk a bit about how the ranking looks

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Speaker 3: in terms of other countries, the US is in second place,

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Speaker 3: and the US invested about three hundred billion dollars versus

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Speaker 3: China's six hundred and seventy six billion dollars in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty three, So that sounds like a big gap. The

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Speaker 3: US is less than half of China, but that gap

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Speaker 3: has actually closed a little bit over the last year

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Speaker 3: because we're starting to see the effects of the inflation

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Speaker 3: reduction act, and so the US is kind of in

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Speaker 3: catch up mode, which is kind of nice to see.

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Speaker 3: And then the rest of the top ten. If you

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Speaker 3: go down the list, you have Germany, UK, France, and a

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Speaker 3: number of European countries. You've also got Brazil in there,

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Speaker 3: You've got India in there, You've got Japan as well,

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Speaker 3: and the EU. So if you take the European Union

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Speaker 3: as a block of twenty seven, the EU invested three

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Speaker 3: hundred and forty one billion dollars in twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 3: which is a little bit ahead of the US and

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Speaker 3: still quite far behind China. But I think what was

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Speaker 3: really nice to see or interesting to see over the

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Speaker 3: last year was that the EU, the US and UK

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Speaker 3: are really starting to grow now. And between those three

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Speaker 3: blocks they actually accounted for most of the growth that

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Speaker 3: we saw last year. And together Europe, US and UK

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Speaker 3: invested more than China did in twenty twenty three, which

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Speaker 3: they hadn't done in twenty twenty two. So it gives

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Speaker 3: you an idea of where the momentum is globally in

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Speaker 3: the transition as well.

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Speaker 2: Another interesting way to look at the data is these

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Speaker 2: numbers are so big, it's it's one point eight trillion.

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Speaker 2: What does that actually mean in real terms? One way

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Speaker 2: that we think about this to put it in context

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Speaker 2: is what percentage is this spending by market as a

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Speaker 2: share of its total GDP. This actually changes the order

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Speaker 2: of the ranking quite a bit. China is still the

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Speaker 2: largest market as a percentage of GDP by quite a

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Speaker 2: large margin, spends about three point eight percent of its

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Speaker 2: GDP on energy transition. The next best market by this

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Speaker 2: metric is actually the UK a two point two percent,

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Speaker 2: followed by a string of other large European economies which

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Speaker 2: also are around two percent. The US, despite being the

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Speaker 2: second largest market, actually spends only one point one percent

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Speaker 2: of its GDP on the energy transition, and this is

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Speaker 2: well below the global average of one point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: So looking at it from that perspective, just pus these

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Speaker 2: numbers in context. And what other useful said is actually

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Speaker 2: to consider this compared to another large government expenditure defense.

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Speaker 2: NATO recommends that governments spend about two percent of their

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Speaker 2: GDP on defense.

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Speaker 1: In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act is just starting

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Speaker 1: to really get steam, right because so much of investment

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Speaker 1: in these assets takes time to actually get off the ground.

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Speaker 1: As the Inflation Reduction Act gets underway. Do you expect

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Speaker 1: that that ratio for the US change or that percentage

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Speaker 1: in the US will change, or is it just such

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Speaker 1: a big economy in terms of GDP that we're already

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Speaker 1: seeing what we expect to see in the yearhead. I'm

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Speaker 1: almost asking you to predict what you think will happen

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Speaker 1: next year now, which is a bit unfair, but you know,

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Speaker 1: what are your views on the Inflation Reduction Act and

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Speaker 1: whether we expect to see a lot of additional growth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would imagine that we will absolutely see growth

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Speaker 2: in the United States. A lot of the subsidies and

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Speaker 2: rules that have been deployed in the Inflation Reduction Act,

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Speaker 2: the actual specific rules about how they'll be applied to

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Speaker 2: projects haven't been determined yet, and so final investment, to say,

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Speaker 2: is waiting to happen. And these projects won't even be

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Speaker 2: built until years after the final investment decision takes place,

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Speaker 2: So we'll be seeing the effect of the Inflation Reduction

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Speaker 2: Act for years in these numbers.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things we take a look at

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Speaker 1: at BNF are these energy supply banking ratios, and what

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Speaker 1: we're trying to understand there is actually how much money

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Speaker 1: is being invested in fossil fuels versus cleaner technology, low

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Speaker 1: carbon technology, and really actually trying to set a framework

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Speaker 1: for how much really needs to go into one versus

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Speaker 1: the other in order for us to be paras aligned

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Speaker 1: and looking at emissions. What do the energy investment trends

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Speaker 1: tell us in light of this, How does it align

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Speaker 1: with the work that we've already done on the different

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Speaker 1: ratios that we need to see, which we know need

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Speaker 1: within this current decade needs to be four dollars spent

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Speaker 1: on low carbon technology for every one dollar spent on

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 3: So, Danny, you're talking about some work we did over

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years looking at paras aligned climate

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Speaker 3: scenarios and what investment is required to achieve those scenarios.

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Speaker 3: And there's a lot of variation, but we find in

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Speaker 3: general that during the course of this decade, we need

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Speaker 3: to be investing four times as much in clean energy

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Speaker 3: supply as in fossil energy supply. So this Energy Transition

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Speaker 3: Investment trans Report shines a light on like where is

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Speaker 3: the money actually flowing? An arely on track for that

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Speaker 3: four to one during this decade? So the answer is,

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Speaker 3: we're not on track, but there are some interesting trends

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Speaker 3: in here. So let me let me kind of unpick it.

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Speaker 3: That one point eight trillion dollars of investment into energy transition.

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Speaker 3: Investment includes both supply side and demand side. On the

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Speaker 3: supply side, there's about a trillion dollars going into things

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Speaker 3: like renewables and nuclear and hydrogen, so it's kind of

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Speaker 3: energy supplying technologies. But the rest of it, about seven

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty billion dollars, is energy consuming technologies like

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Speaker 3: electric vehicles, electric heat pumps, electric arc furnaces, to make steel,

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Speaker 3: things like that that you wouldn't consider to be on

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Speaker 3: the energy supply side. So first you have to unpack that. Now,

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Speaker 3: if you take the total, the one point eight trillion dollars,

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Speaker 3: that's far above what's currently invested into fossil fuel supply.

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Speaker 3: Fossil fuel supply investment is only about one point one

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Speaker 3: trillion dollars at the moment. That includes exploration and production

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Speaker 3: for oil and gas, coal mining, and also uninmbated fossil

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Speaker 3: fuel power generation. It's one point one trillion, But that

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Speaker 3: one point one trillion fossil is more than the supply

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Speaker 3: piece of the one point eight. So the supply piece

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Speaker 3: of the one point eight is only one point zero trillion.

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Speaker 3: So that's a long, long winded way of saying, if

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Speaker 3: you just take the supply of clean energy and supply

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Speaker 3: of fossil fuel energy, we think fossil fuel energy is

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Speaker 3: slightly ahead. It's still slightly ahead, about seven percent ahead

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Speaker 3: of clean energy supply, and that's obviously not where we

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Speaker 3: need to get to when we're thinking about a four

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Speaker 3: to one ratio.

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Speaker 1: Since we're now here talking about one point five degrees,

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Speaker 1: what do we need to do? What sort of investment

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Speaker 1: do we need to see in order for it to

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Speaker 1: be aligned to that emission scenario.

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Speaker 3: So in the report, we look at our own net

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Speaker 3: zero scenario, which is a parasaligine scenario in which the

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Speaker 3: world achieves net zero by mid century. And in that scenario,

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Speaker 3: the required levels of energy transition investment over the course

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Speaker 3: of the rest of this decade is about four point

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Speaker 3: eight trillion dollars per year. So from twenty twenty four

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Speaker 3: to twenty thirty, an average of four point eight trillion

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Speaker 3: dollars per year, that's almost three times the one point

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Speaker 3: eight trillion dollars we saw invested in reality last year.

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Speaker 3: So we're talking about an overnight rapid acceleration of energy

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Speaker 3: transition investment. But remember we've seen a doubling over the

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Speaker 3: last three years, so we're not standing still. And this

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Speaker 3: time next year, are we going to be at four

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Speaker 3: point eight? No, we're not. But I'm not going to

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Speaker 3: be telling you that it needs to triple. That gap is.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure it's going to get smaller and smaller. So

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Speaker 3: I think whenever I present these numbers, this tripling that's required,

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Speaker 3: people always go, oh my god, that's incredible. But you know,

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Speaker 3: when you sit in this industry long enough, you see

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Speaker 3: doublings happening, you see triplings happening, and it does leave

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Speaker 3: you with a sense of you know, we can climb

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Speaker 3: this mountain. It can be done.

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Speaker 2: It's also worth noting that while certain markets are further

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Speaker 2: ahead in terms of their energy transition spending, I don't

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Speaker 2: think there's a single one of the G ten markets

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Speaker 2: that are actually on track. The fact that China is

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Speaker 2: spending more money, it actually needs to spend even more

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Speaker 2: than regions in Europe to get on track for net zero.

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Speaker 2: So basically everywhere can be doing more to get on track.

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Speaker 1: On this show and actually for everybody over the last

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Speaker 1: few years, I think people have been giving a lot

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Speaker 1: of thought to supply chains, how things get where they

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Speaker 1: need to be. How are we going to get all

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Speaker 1: of this clean energy equipment in place in order for

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Speaker 1: us to create these infrastructure investments. So where is the

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Speaker 1: clean energy supply chain investment being invested into or actually

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Speaker 1: is it being invested into enough in order to facilitate

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Speaker 1: the magnitude of change that we're talking about.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Dennis. So that brings us to the second part

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Speaker 3: of the report, which is all around this question of

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Speaker 3: clean energy supply chain investment. Let me just talk a

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Speaker 3: bit about the overall numbers that we're seeing and maybe

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Speaker 3: we can move on to is it enough, which is

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Speaker 3: a really interesting question in its own right. So within

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Speaker 3: the clean energy supply chain investment piece of this report,

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Speaker 3: we're looking at factories across the supply chains of the

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Speaker 3: battery sector, the solar sector, the wind sector, the hydrogen sector,

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Speaker 3: you know, across all those value chains, plus also the

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Speaker 3: mining and refining of key battery metal, so that's lithium, cobalt,

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Speaker 3: and nickel specifically. So that's the scope of what we're

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Speaker 3: looking at. There are some other parts of the energy

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Speaker 3: transition that are are going to be important that we're

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Speaker 3: not quite including just yet, things like copper and steel.

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Speaker 3: But these are the really kind of central core pieces

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Speaker 3: of equipment that we need to scale up for the

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Speaker 3: energy transition. The good news is it scaling up. So

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Speaker 3: from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three we saw an

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Speaker 3: increase in investment from forty six billion dollars to one

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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty five billion dollars, so almost a tripling

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Speaker 3: of investment over the last few years into all of

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Speaker 3: those pieces of factories in mining and refining that are needed.

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Speaker 3: And because we have a slightly different methodology for this

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Speaker 3: piece of the report, we're actually tracking expected factory commissionings

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Speaker 3: and mine mind commissionings, and you can actually see a

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Speaker 3: little bit more into the future for these assets. We

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Speaker 3: can see what's going to happen over the next couple

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Speaker 3: of years. So from one hundred and thirty five billion

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Speaker 3: dollars invested in twenty twenty three, we actually expect that

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Speaker 3: to reach two hundred and fifty billion dollars by twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five, which is about a two thirds increase again

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Speaker 3: from what we saw last year. So the answer is

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Speaker 3: it's really healthy. We're seeing really good investment into the

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Speaker 3: global clean energy supply chains. And just to kind of

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Speaker 3: illuminate a little bit what the main drivers are. In

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Speaker 3: any given year, about eighty or ninety percent of that

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Speaker 3: investment is going either into battery factories or solar factories.

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Speaker 3: So batteries and solar are the vast, vast majority of that,

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Speaker 3: and that's just the sheer production capacity needed to supply

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Speaker 3: those very rapidly growing industries. Then hydrogen and wind make

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Speaker 3: up a very small sliver, and then there's about ten

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Speaker 3: to twenty percent depending on the year, that goes into

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Speaker 3: the battery metals piece. So that's just kind of how

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Speaker 3: to understand. It's not right or wrong, but that's just

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Speaker 3: what we're seeing in terms of the investment trends.

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Speaker 2: At the moment.

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Speaker 1: Historically, we've seen China be a really dominant player with

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Speaker 1: batteries and solar, which you point out, and you're highlighting

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Speaker 1: that there's a lot of money going into supply chain

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Speaker 1: specifically for these two industries. Is that a sign that

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Speaker 1: we are actually seeing a bit of a pivot because

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Speaker 1: one of the things that we have noticed since been

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Speaker 1: brought up on this show a few times, is that

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Speaker 1: supply chains are changing. There is more near shoring and

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Speaker 1: on shoring, and different parts of the world are thinking

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Speaker 1: about not only investing in a clean energy future, but

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Speaker 1: actually thinking about how they're going to manufacture it closer

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Speaker 1: to home and in some cases actually also create jobs

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Speaker 1: through that. Is that having a influence on the amount

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Speaker 1: of money that you're seeing going into the supply chain investment,

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Speaker 1: specifically calling out batteries and solar, but really for all

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Speaker 1: of the industries that we took a look at, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The picture is going to start to change now. So

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Speaker 3: if you just look at the factory investment into clean

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Speaker 3: energy equipment factories over the last few years, more than

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Speaker 3: ninety percent of the new capacity and the new investment

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Speaker 3: has been happening in mainland China. And I don't think

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Speaker 3: that comes as so much of a surprise for those

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Speaker 3: of us in the industry because we know that mainland

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Speaker 3: China is supplying most of the solar modules and battery

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Speaker 3: sales that we're using around the world. But we can

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Speaker 3: see in the data, and again because of the way

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Speaker 3: we do the factory investment, we can see the next

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Speaker 3: couple of years and what you'll see if you take

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Speaker 3: a look in the report is that by twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 3: suddenly a little bit more than a third of the

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Speaker 3: investment is suddenly going to other regions that are on

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Speaker 3: mainland China, especially Europe and the US, and so there

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Speaker 3: in the data you can see very clearly the impact

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Speaker 3: of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Net Zero Industry Act,

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Speaker 3: and so on. Now, I think what's important to keep

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Speaker 3: an eye on here is, yes, it's great that there's investment.

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Speaker 3: That's great that there's supply chain diversification. I think that

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Speaker 3: leads to a more resilient industry. But this is happening

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Speaker 3: at the same time as we're experiencing oversupply in the

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Speaker 3: solar industry and oversupply in the battery industry as well,

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Speaker 3: and that's why both of those technologies have become very

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Speaker 3: very cheap over the last six to nine months, and

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Speaker 3: so we're seeing this potential for overinvestment. Actually, these new

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Speaker 3: factories will come online, they're coming The question is which

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Speaker 3: ones are really going to be successful, which ones are

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Speaker 3: really going to be competitive in an environment where we

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Speaker 3: have an over supply situation, And that's something we're going

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Speaker 3: to be keeping an eye.

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Speaker 2: On It's also interesting because the newest factories tend to

439
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 2: be the ones that can produce at the lowest cost,

440
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,439
Speaker 2: so there's no real market incentive for you not to

441
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 2: build the newest factory. It's more of an industry problem.

442
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 1: Is this investment volume then in supply chains going to well,

443
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 1: first of all, accelerate the amount of projects we're actually

444
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: going to end up seeing, and is it net zero aligned?

445
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 1: Are we going to see the emissions reductions associated with it?

446
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 1: Is it enough?

447
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 2: Yeah?

448
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 3: Great question. So we do the same analysis for the

449
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,120
Speaker 3: Cleange supply chain investment where we compare it to what's

450
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 3: needed to get on track for net zero in aggregate.

451
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 3: If you take the one hundred and thirty five billion dollars,

452
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 3: it's enough, Like if we maintain that level of spending

453
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 3: for the next few years, we'll have enough factories and

454
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 3: minds to supply the equipment needed for net zero, which

455
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: is a great I mean, that's a really nice story.

456
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 3: We're not talking about needing to triple it as we

457
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 3: are with the energy transition investment, so that's fantastic. But

458
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 3: if you dig a little bit deeper, it's actually more

459
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 3: nuanced than that. So if you just take solar for example,

460
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 3: we actually don't need any more solar factories at all.

461
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: That we could invest zero for the next few years

462
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 3: in solar manufacturing and we'd be okay for that zero.

463
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 3: That's the extent of the capacity that we've already.

464
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 1: Built globally, including chain.

465
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, globally, But to Mark's earlier point, that's not what's

466
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 3: going to happen because these industries they want to build

467
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 3: the latest factory with the best equipment to produce the

468
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 3: next module that has greater efficiency and lower cost per

469
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 3: water and so on. So actually you are going to

470
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 3: see more investment and it's going to drive older factories

471
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 3: out of the story. If you look at other sectors

472
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 3: like wind for example, So wind is kind of the

473
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 3: opposite story. We need to see more investment into wind

474
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,199
Speaker 3: supply chain, and that need is actually quite stark, so

475
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: we need to see real rapid increases there. On hydrogen,

476
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 3: it again it's slightly a different story that looks like

477
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: there's enough for a couple of years, but then it

478
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 3: needs to ramp up from kind of twenty twenty six onwards.

479
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 3: And then finally on battery metals, there's been this really

480
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 3: interesting kind of ce sort effect because a few years

481
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 3: ago everybody was worried about undersupply and battery metal prices

482
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 3: went through the roof. The industry reacted. Now there's a

483
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 3: load of new investment that's come into battery metal supply,

484
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 3: there's prices coming down again, and so we actually look

485
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 3: like we've got enough for the next couple of years.

486
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 3: But then likely in three or four or five years time,

487
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 3: that's going to turn around again and we're going to

488
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 3: need more investment again. So the picture is a little

489
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 3: bit more nuanced than that. But when I look at

490
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 3: the aggregate data, it does seem like these industries are

491
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 3: responsive to market signals. When there's demand, the supply comes through,

492
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 3: and so I don't feel that worried about this kind

493
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 3: of supply side picture.

494
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 1: So, Mark, one of the things you spent a lot

495
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: of time thinking about and brought to this report was

496
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: your focus on climate tech equity fundraising. In twenty twenty two,

497
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 1: we saw declines in climate tech equity financing, and what

498
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 1: I I want to better understand is whether or not

499
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 1: this improved and rebounded in twenty twenty three.

500
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, So this portion of the report is designed to

501
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: see which companies in the world are actually raising financing

502
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 2: in order to drive the energy transition. So it's more

503
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 2: about who's raising money and what type of money they're raising,

504
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 2: rather than what the money itself is being spent on.

505
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 2: And it's kind of a funny story to write when

506
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 2: you look at the first half of this report, where

507
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 2: investment just keeps going up and up and up, and

508
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 2: for two years in a row now we've actually said

509
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 2: that equity financing of climate tech companies is going down.

510
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 2: So last year we saw a twenty four percent drop

511
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 2: to one hundred and twenty seven billion dollars, and this

512
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 2: year we saw an even bigger thirty four percent drop

513
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 2: to about eighty four billion dollars. So how do you

514
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 2: square this story with what Albertsman speaking about for the

515
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 2: first half of this podcast. Well, the reality is is

516
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 2: that while investment keeps going up and these industries are

517
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 2: pretty resilient because their cost competitive, the public market valuations

518
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: of clean energy companies has seen a real hit this year.

519
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: So the clean energy industries, they're very focused on the future.

520
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 2: There's a lot of growth, and when interest rates go up,

521
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 2: this means that a lot of their future revenues and

522
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: future profits are being discounted at much higher rates, so

523
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 2: you'll see that compared to the Standard and Poores Index

524
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 2: or the NASDAK Clean Energy indexes could be down fifty

525
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 2: or sixty percent compared to being flat over the last

526
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: two years. So, yes, the industries are strong, but that

527
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily translate to valuations in public markets. And when

528
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 2: valuations in public markets decline, companies are less willing to

529
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 2: go through IPOs, and that was really the main driver

530
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 2: of the big drop in funding this year. It was

531
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 2: funding raised through IPOs and reverse mergers. There's a whole

532
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 2: other story about why people have stopped doing reverse mergers,

533
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 2: but the bottom line is that there's less money being

534
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 2: put into companies.

535
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: There's a bit of an irony sometimes in the clean

536
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 3: energy industry where at the times when the transition is

537
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 3: really accelerating and going quickly, it's often because the technology

538
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 3: costs are coming down really really quickly, and often that's

539
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: because the competitive environment is really aggressive. Certainly at points

540
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 3: in history where you've seen both the energy transition starting

541
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 3: so quickly because the costs are coming down, but companies

542
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 3: hurting because they're competing each other and killing each other

543
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 3: on cost and that hurts the equity evaluations. I think

544
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 3: that's probably partly what we saw last year as well.

545
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: Coming back to China, it has a big influence on

546
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 1: public financing in this space, what happened in twenty twenty

547
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: three when it came to IPOs in China.

548
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, we track funding by market obviously, and Mainland China,

549
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 2: like the rest of the report, is actually the biggest market.

550
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: Its lead is a little bit less so than compared

551
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 2: with other parts of the report. It raised about twenty

552
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 2: five billion dollars this year compared to twenty one for

553
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 2: the US, the second largest market. The China market's pretty

554
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 2: unique in that it's the only one where the majority

555
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 2: of funding comes from public markets rather than venture capital

556
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 2: and private equity investors. And the real interesting story this

557
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,959
Speaker 2: year was that its lead actually shrunk. What's happening with

558
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: funding in mainland China is that almost all of it

559
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 2: is really really big rounds and think like three hundred

560
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: million dollars plus raised by manufacturers. So we spent that

561
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: whole five ten minutes talking about manufacturing and the story

562
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 2: about over opacity, particularly in China. This has really affected

563
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 2: the equity fundraising and we're actually hearing that there's going

564
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 2: to be a push to stop companies raising as much

565
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 2: money to build new solar and battery capacity to deal

566
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 2: with this industry issue of oversupply.

567
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 1: The Double Eyes feature on the show pretty regularly inflation

568
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: and interest rates. How much of an impact do you

569
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: think that actually had on the markets and how did

570
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 1: clean tech perform in light of that?

571
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, so last year we actually we said that climate

572
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: tech was a more resilient category in terms of deals

573
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 2: happening than the broader market. So we compared all the

574
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: IPOs and secretary equity offerings happening in the entire economy

575
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 2: to what happened in climate and it was more resilient.

576
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 2: This year, it was the opposite story. So over the

577
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 2: course of last year is basically the climate tech industry

578
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: has been brought into line with where the rest of

579
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: the economy is.

580
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 1: So the newcomer to this report is debt, and we

581
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: know that debt is an incredibly important part of all

582
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: of the projects that we look at and clean energy financing.

583
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 1: Tell us a little bit about the highlights that we

584
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: found when we ventured into adding debt to this report

585
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: for the first time in fifteen years.

586
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, So the absolute value of money that's being raised

587
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 2: through debt is unsurprisingly a lot more than it's being

588
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 2: raised through equity. So we tracked about eight hundred and

589
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: twenty four billion dollars this year in debt issuance for

590
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 2: the energy transition, and the corporate debt market globally is

591
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 2: seventeen point one trillion, so that's a pretty big share

592
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 2: of it actually, to be honest, when we think about trends,

593
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 2: is going up as it down, and obviously the equity

594
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 2: market was down quite a lot this year. The debt

595
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 2: market didn't have the same trouble, and it actually increased

596
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 2: four percent, and this didn't seem to be a story

597
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: that was particularly related to the energy transition. It's basically

598
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 2: exactly in line with where the entire corporate debt market went.

599
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 2: There is also one takeaway you could take from this,

600
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: which is that the equity funding has fallen by quite

601
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 2: a lot, actually a greater dollar value amount than the debt.

602
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: Corporate debt issuance went up. But also what could be

603
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: happening here is that the clean energy manufacturing sectors are

604
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: actually just becoming much more mature, and equity financing is

605
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: not your first option. You'd rather finance something through debt,

606
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: it's much cheaper. So what could be happening here a

607
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: little bit is that these companies are just maturing, they're

608
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 2: becoming more bankable, and they're choosing to finance new projects

609
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 2: or facilities and through debt issues rather than new equity raises.

610
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: So even though we've been doing this report for fifteen years,

611
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: we still learn new things every single year, and different

612
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 1: things surprise us in different themes emerge. What was the

613
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: most surprising thought you had when going through the research

614
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: this year.

615
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 2: I think a year ago, my perception of this whole

616
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: on shoring trend was that we have this knowledge that

617
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 2: we know that the equipment that's produced in China is cheaper.

618
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: A lot of that is due to expertise, energy costs,

619
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 2: labor costs, but also there's been a bit of a

620
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 2: cloud around how much the government has already been supporting

621
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: the clean tech manufacturing industries, and so there was a

622
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 2: lot of commentary when the US announced subsidies for manufacturing that, oh,

623
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 2: it's just always going to be inherently more expensive. But

624
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 2: the reality is that we actually don't know to what

625
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: extent the subsidies have been driving the cost reductions. In China.

626
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 2: So I think this is going to be really interesting

627
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: going forward to see how cost competitive European and US

628
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 2: manufacturers can get.

629
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: Is there something that stood out to you, Albert?

630
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: I would go back to the story in the wind sector,

631
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 3: which I mentioned earlier, because you know, we even got

632
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 3: caught up in some of the moods of depression last

633
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 3: year around the summer when projects were getting canceled and

634
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 3: we sat around going, hey, you know, even as BNF,

635
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 3: what can we do? Can we write some research to

636
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 3: highlight the problems and solutions to this challenge. So at

637
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 3: the end of the year, when we ran the numbers,

638
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 3: we found that wind had a record year of investment.

639
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: You know, it was sort of hidden in the numbers,

640
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: and I just thought, Wow, things are not as bad

641
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 3: as they seem, and there's optimism to be had out there.

642
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 3: So that was a really positive surprise.

643
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: One of the things that we do at the beginning

644
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: of the year is we create these things to watch reports,

645
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: and we did a series of highlighting a few of

646
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: them on this show, and it was in the year ahead,

647
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: what did we think was going to happen? From your standpoint,

648
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: we know you're going to do this report again next year.

649
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 1: Do you have any views on what might come out

650
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: of that version When we're sitting here in a year's time.

651
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 2: From the equity funding numbers, it wouldn't surprise me if

652
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 2: they're lower again. People seem to be in agreement that

653
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: interest rates aren't going to go any higher, but it's

654
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 2: also not clear that they're going to be cut anytime soon,

655
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: and so that's going to continue to impact it. And

656
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 2: then this issue with manufacturing over capacity means that it's

657
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: it's going to be a tough business to be in

658
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: for the next few years, so I think that'll also

659
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 2: impact the funding numbers.

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00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 3: On the energy transition investment numbers. So before we started

661
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 3: this year's report, about ten or twelve of us got

662
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: around and tried to guess what the final number would be.

663
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 3: So before we even turned us a single wheel on

664
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 3: the numbers, and I guessed one point seventy five trillion,

665
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 3: and Philamina, who is our lead analyst on the investment data,

666
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 3: guess one point eight trillion. So between the two of

667
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 3: us was it ended up being one point seven to seven.

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00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: So we pretty much nailed it even just before we

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00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 3: even ran any numbers. So you know, I'm going to

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00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 3: go out on a limb now and say that next

671
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 3: year it's going to be more than two trillion, call

672
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 3: it two point one trillion. Let's go at two point

673
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 3: one and see where we get to.

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00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: I think we need to get Filomina in the room though,

675
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: to really get to inaccurate now.

676
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. She's the oracle.

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00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: Alibert Mark, thank you very much for coming on the

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00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: show today, and we look forward to talking about this

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00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 1: again next year.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Switched On is produced by Cam Gray with production assistance

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