WEBVTT - Iran War Could Hinge on Who Runs Low on Munitions First 0:00:02.680 --> 0:00:08.440 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.440 On Monday, NATO announced it it shot down a second 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.479 missile fired toward Turkey, sparking concerns that the Iran war 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:21.680 could widen. Oil prices briefly topped one hundred dollars a 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.760 barrel for the first time in four years, as oil 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:28.120 production slows in several Gulf states and traffic through the 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:31.920 Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. As the 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.840 US and Israel continue their attacks, Iran has shown little 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:39.839 sign of changing course. Over the weekend, the country appointed 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:43.960 the sun of Ayatola Ali Hamane as the new Supreme Leader. 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:46.120 And it seems to be that there are two critical 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:48.960 factors to look at, markets and munitions. 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:52.760 Former US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln sat down with 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.560 my co host David Gerrow last week to talk about 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:58.520 the factors that could bring a quicker end to the war. 0:00:59.480 --> 0:01:03.240 Big market losses, he said, could cause President Donald Trump 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:04.160 to pull back. 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.959 Or munitions. There's really a race on to figure out 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:11.600 who expends their munitions first and fastest. 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:14.360 We can be clear with the American people that this 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:15.200 is not a fair fight. 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:19.320 In an interview on CBS's sixty minutes. Defense Secretary Pete 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:24.560 Hegseth said the US and Israel's military resources can overwhelm Irans. 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:26.759 The ability for US to be up over the top 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.839 and hunting with more conventional munitions, gravity bombs five hundred pound, 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.520 one thousand pound, two thousand pound bombs on military targets 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:37.119 that we haven't even really begun to start that effort 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:37.800 of the campaign. 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:40.440 As the costs of the war continue to mount, the 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:43.520 US's ability to stay in this fight depends on more 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:47.760 than the Trump administration's appetite to continue. It might also 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:53.360 come down to weapons. I'm Sarah Holder, and this is 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.360 the big take from Bloomberg News today. On the show 0:01:56.560 --> 0:02:00.000 the munitions powering each side of this conflict, how much 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:03.360 which they cost and who could run out first? I 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:06.880 sat down with Bloomberg's Global Defense editor Jerry Doyle and 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:16.400 Bloomberg Economics Defense lead Becca Wasser to find out. Jerry 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.239 and Becca, thank you so much for joining us. As 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:22.560 the war in Iran escalates, there have been mounting consequences. 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:26.600 There's the human toll. More than a thousand Iranians have died, 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.960 according to Iranian officials. Seven US service members have died 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:34.919 as of this taping attacks on oil reserves have sent 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.960 oil prices mounting. But today we're going to talk about 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.400 weapons because they can be a useful proxy to understand 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:45.400 how and how quickly this war might end. Jerry, you 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:49.000 wrote in a story last week that just three days 0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:53.040 into the conflict, the Iran war has become attritional. What 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:53.760 did you mean by that? 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:58.320 Whoever run out of their crucial ammunition first, it's going 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.799 to be in a much worse position as Iran burns 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:05.440 through with missile inventory firing them. The US and Israel 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.240 destroy those missiles on the ground and destroy launchers on 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:11.000 the ground, and at the same time balancing the other 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:13.240 side of it, of the US and Israel and its 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:17.760 partners using large numbers of air defense missiles to protect themselves. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:21.240 How much does one of those patriot air defense missiles 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:24.160 that the US and Israel are using cost? And what's 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.120 the life span of this technology. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:29.200 It's a missile, so you fire at once and it's done, 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:33.320 and they cost about four million dollars each, maybe maybe 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:35.960 a few hundred thousand dollars more. So you can kind 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:39.840 of see the mismatch between using a relatively expensive weapon 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:43.640 like that to defend against something smaller and cheaper like 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:47.600 the sort of head one thirty six one way attack 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:52.080 drone basically rudimentary, cheap, slow cruise missiles that Iran has 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.720 and is launched in large numbers. If you use your 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:58.120 air defense missile to defend against the system like that, 0:03:58.200 --> 0:03:59.560 you're losing the money battle. 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.480 And Becca, you've been crunching the numbers on this, can 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.200 you walk us through what we know about the supply 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.720 of munitions on either side and how we know what 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:10.040 we know? 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.560 All right, so let's start with Iran. Iran, we don't 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:17.720 have a very good sense of their missile and drone stockpiles, 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:20.839 and part of that is by design. Last numbers that 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:25.280 we have is Iran had about two thousand or so 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:30.000 ballistic missiles prior to the Twelve Day War and that 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:33.600 some of those were fired in great number, and then 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:37.200 it has tried to rebuild in that interrect num period. 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.760 In terms of drones, we don't have good data on 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:45.440 what Iran drone production rates are, specifically shaw heads, but 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:49.560 we do have some decent data. On the Russian side, 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:53.080 they've been able to crank out upwards of four hundred 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.839 a day. So if you assume that Iran has a 0:04:57.000 --> 0:05:01.600 very similar production rate. Iaine that their drone arsenal is 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:05.680 quite large. Shifting over to the US and its golf partners, 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:09.760 the Golf partners have spent years and years buying US weaponry, 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:14.159 including a lot of very expensive air defense systems. We 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:17.000 don't have a good sense of their stockpile numbers, but 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.200 we have heard that they are running low on some 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:22.480 of the precious air defense interceptors that they've been using, 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:26.440 as Jerry said, to take out the missile and drone 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.520 thread emanating from Iran since the start of this conflict. 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.600 There's just never enough air defense systems to go around. 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:37.640 There are never enough missiles and interceptors. So we don't 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:41.160 have a good sense of stockpile numbers because they are classified, 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:44.479 but at the rate at which they've been used, you 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:47.720 could imagine that some of those are running a little 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.440 bit low. That doesn't mean that the US is running out, 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:52.839 but it does mean that the US may need to 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:56.720 pull them from other theaters if possible. When you look 0:05:56.800 --> 0:06:00.240 at some of the long range weapons, they're pricey, and 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:04.560 those have been used to great effects already in this conflict, 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.240 and the US is trying to shift away from using 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:11.200 those standoff weapons to now using closer range stand in 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:16.440 weapons in part because those joint attack munitions are more plentiful. 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.680 But that requires the US to be able to get 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:21.640 a little bit closer in order to drop these largely 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:22.080 by air. 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.960 Maybe to put a sort of a quantifiable point on that, right, 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:27.400 So if the US used to say two hundred and 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:31.000 fifty Tomahawk missiles in the opening days of this operation, 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:33.200 so each of those is going to cost let's sort 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:35.240 of ballpark at a million dollars each day, probably a. 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.279 Little bit more than that, one point seven. 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:40.000 One point seven, all right, so let's say two let's 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:42.520 just call it an even two million. So that's five 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:45.400 as a half billion dollars spent just on the munitions, right, 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:49.800 and we currently manufacture something like ninety Tomahawks a year, 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.680 So it would take you two and a half years 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:55.799 to replace the Tomahawks that were fired over the course 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:58.640 of one day at the cost of half billion dollars. 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:01.480 What we're talking talking about here in terms of the 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:06.120 cadence of how many munitions have already been deployed just 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.960 you know, ten days into this war, is this typical? 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:10.360 Becca. 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:14.560 I think the intensity of US and Israeli strikes is 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.240 quite notable. The United States has said that they alone 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:23.760 have conducted over three thousand strikes. You also have the 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.360 Department of Defense saying that they have used more air 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:30.600 power in the first few days at this conflict than 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.600 they did in the opening days of the war on Iraq. 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:37.480 So you know, if you look at this historically, it's 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:40.000 a massive use of air power, it's a massive use 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:44.320 of missiles. It's a massive use of American force, which 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:47.520 leads to the question of how long does this go on? 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:52.000 Becca, What are the plans to replace weapons that have 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:56.280 already been used in this conflict? Is production ramping up 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.720 and how quickly could that happen? 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:02.480 Production is ramping up, but I wouldn't say that it's quick. 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:06.160 More recently, there have been efforts to try and scale 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:11.480 missile production. Missiles and munitions are very volatile in terms 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:14.120 of their procurement, and the thing that usually ends up 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:18.360 on the cutting room floor had traditionally been munitions. I think, 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.200 you know, Ukraine was a wake up call for the 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:24.920 United States and that it needed to get after this problem. 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.560 So we did see some efforts there. More recently, we 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:35.160 have this announcement of a potential supplemental for munitions to 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:37.959 try and ramp up supply of some of the most 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:41.839 critical munitions, including those air defense interceptors that have been 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:47.439 used like Patriot THAD, as well as the standard missile series. 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.400 But those are going to be longer term efforts. When 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:54.040 they're saying that they're going to ramp production, we're looking 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:57.120 at you know what, the White House says, quadrupling it, 0:08:57.440 --> 0:08:59.840 but that's not until the twenty thirties. So it's going 0:08:59.880 --> 0:09:02.600 to take a while for that to happen, in part 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:05.199 because it's a lengthy endeavor and there's a lot of 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:09.000 bottlenecks that exist in the munition's production process. 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.480 And what about on the Iranian side, how is Iran 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:16.800 thinking about replacing munitions as they run through them? 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:21.560 Jerry, it's very difficult to tell from the outside what 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.120 they're able to produce. Most of their production facilities at 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:27.520 this point in the war are going to be in 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.319 places where you can't see them easily from the satellite, 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:33.760 maybe you know, underground, buried in a mountain, disguised as 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:36.440 something else, and it's going to be much easier for 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:40.120 them to replace the cheaper, lower an ammunition they're using 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:43.160 like the head, you know, sort of these small cruise missiles, 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:45.800 which you know are just a small step up from 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:49.200 being a remote control airplane with an artillery shell strap 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:53.400 to it. Missiles are obviously much more difficult to produce 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:56.040 in terms of materials, in terms of the expertise the 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.079 machinery that you need to do that and get them 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.600 to work well. So it's makes me as very unlikely 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:05.480 that Iran will be able to generate more missiles while 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:07.480 the war is going on. 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:09.960 It seems like what you're both describing is that the 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:12.440 US is using missiles like Patriots that take lots of 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:16.360 time millions of dollars to produce to shoot down drones 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:18.920 like the show Heads that are cheap and quick to produce. 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:23.680 I'm wondering whether that poses a sustainability challenge for the 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.319 US here or gives Iran a leg up. 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:30.040 It's a sustainability challenge in the sense not that the 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:34.920 US is going to run out of munition, even air 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:39.200 defense missiles full stop. It's more that they would have 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.440 to confront strain on their inventory that would post them 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.880 to pull from other places that are very important to 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:48.400 the US military es, such as the Indo Pacific, where 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.360 you have China, which is the world's largest conventional billistic 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:56.240 missile inventory, with US bases obviously in Korea, Japan, Guam 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.199 under threat from those missiles. So that would be the 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:02.560 danger for the US side that they start having to 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:05.400 rob Peter to pay Paul in order to keep their 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:09.560 air defenses in the Middle East robust. 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.040 After the break, Bloomberg's Global Defense editor Jerry Doyle and 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:18.840 Bloomberg Economics Defense lead Becca Wasser on what we know 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:23.160 about the economic cost and the opportunity cost of the 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:37.200 war so far. Becca, I'm hoping you can help us 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:41.680 put the overall cost of this war into context. How 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:45.400 much has this been costing the US already, even in 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:47.080 its first few days. 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:51.200 So I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but some smart 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:54.280 analysts in DC already have, and we are looking at 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:58.520 billions billions of dollars just in pure operational cost alone. 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:03.360 We don't have numbers of what has been expended yet, 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.360 and once we do, I think we're going to see 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:10.080 an enormous cost. But I think it's worth remembering that 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:13.720 the human cost of war is probably the greatest cost. 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:19.120 Already we are seeing civilians in Iran taking the brunt 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.120 of this conflict. We are also seeing human loss of 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.120 life throughout the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:29.520 as well. And we've also seen now seven US service 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:34.760 members killed, which is very, very notable for the United States. So, 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.760 you know, we have the financial costs, but war is 0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:42.680 not just about financial cost and even in an attritional war, 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.160 materiel is not going to be the most decisive factor 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:49.160 at the end of the day. The decision to end 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:52.800 a war is often political, and sometimes it's more on 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:55.920 the human cost that actually brings folks to the table. 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.520 I mean, on how long might it take for those costs, 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.680 those costs of human lives and those billions of dollars 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:06.120 that have already spent on this war to filter into 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.479 the political arena and make a difference in terms of 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.040 how the administration is thinking about continuing this war. 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.880 To a certain extent, some of the war is already 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:18.680 funded through the Pentagon Defense Department budget that was approved 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:22.600 last year for twenty twenty six. Additional cost like the 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.440 you know, fifty billion dollars for additional munitions and operation. 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.120 That stuff is it's going to have to be paid 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:33.680 for somehow, and I'm sure that senators and representatives in 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.760 Congress are going to make hey one way or the 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:38.840 other about who's paying for it. 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.160 I mean, this obviously is not the only conflict that 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.040 the US has waded into this year. Right We've seen 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.880 Trump Mountain Operation to top of the leader of Venezuela. 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.520 He's made noises about Greenland and Cuba, which is currently 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:55.640 under an oil blockade. So politics and costs aside from 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.360 a perspective of troops, personnel, weaponry, you know, how many 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:03.199 more battles can the US military sustain? And is that 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.160 something that weighs on Trump or the US right now? 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:08.880 I mean I can say that, you know, twenty five 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.440 to thirty years ago, the US military was sort of 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.960 the idea that it was designed to fight two wars 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.520 at once, much as it did in World War Two, 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.000 sort of fighting in the Pacific and fighting in Europe. 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:22.400 That's not really the case anymore. Sort that shifted to 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:24.520 we're going to be able to fight one war at 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.560 a time and deter another war. 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:28.920 And I think all of this speaks to a longer 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:33.960 readiness challenge for the US military. Already, we're seeing such 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:39.160 wear and tear on equipment, we are seeing forces, you know, 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:43.480 overseas or out at sea for extended deployments. We're seeing 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:47.520 a ton of weapons being used that aren't quickly and 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:51.160 easily replaced, and that just means that the United States 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:55.280 might be less prepared to deal with unforeseen crises, to 0:14:55.720 --> 0:15:01.040 mount another operation, say against Cuba or elsewhere, or even 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.440 in the long term, be able to deter and if needed, 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:09.440 defend against potential aggression in the Indo Pacific if something 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:13.000 were to pop off with China. 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.280 I mean, as we talk about other conflicts, you know, 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:18.600 the Russia Ukraine war is waging on. Ukraine has been 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:21.640 seeking US missiles for its defense, and it recently came 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:23.880 up with a proposal for a swap of sorts to 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:27.240 help the US defend against Iran. I'm wondering if you 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:29.440 could talk about what they're offering and how that fits 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:30.359 into this conversation. 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:35.080 So Ukraine has sort of helped develop this theory of 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.720 layered air defenses for protecting against the drone that that 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:41.240 until the Iran War we hadn't really seen at large 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:45.200 scale anywhere else. What Zelensky has proposed publicly is that 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.800 Ukraine would help out with some systems at eight users 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.640 to intercept Jones cheaply. They can provide that sort of 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.359 hardware and that sort of equipment, but also the expertise 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.720 they have and sort of arranging and layering drone defense, 0:15:57.920 --> 0:15:59.800 because this is some things is a problem that they've 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:03.640 printed every day for years and gotten pretty good at solving. 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:09.200 And Ukraine has also in exchange, asked for more airfense missiles, 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:13.200 specifically Patriot Pac three missiles, which are being burned through 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:14.760 in the Middle East right now. 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:19.359 We talked at the top about the Iran war becoming attritional, 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:23.440 So I want to wrap up this conversation by asking Becca, 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.920 from where we sit today, which side is positioned to 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:29.440 outlast the other in this war? 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:35.560 If you're judging by pure hardware alone, the answer is 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.160 probably the United States, based on it's much larger military, 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:42.800 it's much larger arsenal, and everything that it could bring 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:46.640 to bear in this conflict. But at the end of 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:50.240 the day, war is not just about the number of 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:54.480 missiles that you have or the capabilities. It really does 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:58.880 come down to will and will to fight, and for 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:03.960 Iran this is an existential one. So you can imagine 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:09.840 that even if the US could outlast Iran, in terms 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:14.760 of weapons and capabilities a number of forces. Iran is 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.600 going to continue this for as long as they possibly can. 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.840 It sort of depends on what the operational goal is 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.920 for the US. Is it regime change. If that's the case, 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:30.480 then by that standard, maybe Iran ends up on top. 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.280 If their campaign continues and they're saying that the goal 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:39.199 is for Iran to be completely disarmed, then maybe you 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:40.800 could come up with some sort of a theory of 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.720 victory for that Iran runs out of weapons or its 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:47.040 stockpiles are destroyed, then maybe you can say the US 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.359 wins that scenario. Melli Becka was saying, it's sort of 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:54.439 appearing victory. You know that the US would have burned 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.960 through a tremendous amount of hardware. It would have suffered, 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.280 you know, casualty both dead and wounded. It would have 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:04.960 inflicted quite a bit of destruction and death on Iran, 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:10.400 destabilized the region, and sort of destabilize the oil markets. 0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:13.800 If it comes to a scenario where the US stops 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:18.119 bombing because around that shooting, then it really hard to 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.719 view that in any terms other than sort of a stalemate. 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.440 And then it's about rebuilding and trying to repair all 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:28.840 the damage not just in the Middle East but around 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:29.240 the world. 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:31.480 Yeah, and I think if you look at the historical 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:35.240 record of protracted conflicts, you have these intense periods of 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:40.480 fighting followed by bouts of reconstitution and where you're trying 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:44.479 to rebuild your forces before restarting the fighting again. And 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:47.320 that's a really scary thing to think about because that 0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:50.840 puts the US and Iran potentially in a cycle of 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:55.080 conflict for a very long time and very much invokes 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.040 the idea of some of the forever wars that Trump 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:02.080 campaigned against and said that he wouldn't get involved in 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:02.919 in the Middle East. 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:06.400 I think it's also important to look again at the outcome. 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:08.919 What is a goal that the US is trying to 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:12.680 bring about with this military action. You can be completely dominant, 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.520 you can destroy the other guy's military completely, but if 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:20.359 you aren't achieving an effect in whatever effect it is 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.120 you're going for, then you're just fighting. 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:27.199 Operational success is not the same as strategic success. 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.639 This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:38.960 To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.720 to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:46.560 dot com Slash Podcast offer, thanks for listening. We'll be 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:47.240 back tomorrow.