1 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 2: On Monday, NATO announced it it shot down a second 3 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 2: missile fired toward Turkey, sparking concerns that the Iran war 4 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 2: could widen. Oil prices briefly topped one hundred dollars a 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 2: barrel for the first time in four years, as oil 6 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 2: production slows in several Gulf states and traffic through the 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. As the 8 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: US and Israel continue their attacks, Iran has shown little 9 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 2: sign of changing course. Over the weekend, the country appointed 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 2: the sun of Ayatola Ali Hamane as the new Supreme Leader. 11 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 3: And it seems to be that there are two critical 12 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 3: factors to look at, markets and munitions. 13 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: Former US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln sat down with 14 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: my co host David Gerrow last week to talk about 15 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: the factors that could bring a quicker end to the war. 16 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: Big market losses, he said, could cause President Donald Trump 17 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: to pull back. 18 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 3: Or munitions. There's really a race on to figure out 19 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 3: who expends their munitions first and fastest. 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 4: We can be clear with the American people that this 21 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 4: is not a fair fight. 22 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 2: In an interview on CBS's sixty minutes. Defense Secretary Pete 23 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: Hegseth said the US and Israel's military resources can overwhelm Irans. 24 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:26,759 Speaker 4: The ability for US to be up over the top 25 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,839 Speaker 4: and hunting with more conventional munitions, gravity bombs five hundred pound, 26 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 4: one thousand pound, two thousand pound bombs on military targets 27 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,119 Speaker 4: that we haven't even really begun to start that effort 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 4: of the campaign. 29 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: As the costs of the war continue to mount, the 30 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: US's ability to stay in this fight depends on more 31 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: than the Trump administration's appetite to continue. It might also 32 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: come down to weapons. I'm Sarah Holder, and this is 33 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 2: the big take from Bloomberg News today. On the show 34 00:01:56,560 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: the munitions powering each side of this conflict, how much 35 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: which they cost and who could run out first? I 36 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 2: sat down with Bloomberg's Global Defense editor Jerry Doyle and 37 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics Defense lead Becca Wasser to find out. Jerry 38 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 2: and Becca, thank you so much for joining us. As 39 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 2: the war in Iran escalates, there have been mounting consequences. 40 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 2: There's the human toll. More than a thousand Iranians have died, 41 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 2: according to Iranian officials. Seven US service members have died 42 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 2: as of this taping attacks on oil reserves have sent 43 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 2: oil prices mounting. But today we're going to talk about 44 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: weapons because they can be a useful proxy to understand 45 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 2: how and how quickly this war might end. Jerry, you 46 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 2: wrote in a story last week that just three days 47 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: into the conflict, the Iran war has become attritional. What 48 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 2: did you mean by that? 49 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 5: Whoever run out of their crucial ammunition first, it's going 50 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 5: to be in a much worse position as Iran burns 51 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 5: through with missile inventory firing them. The US and Israel 52 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 5: destroy those missiles on the ground and destroy launchers on 53 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 5: the ground, and at the same time balancing the other 54 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 5: side of it, of the US and Israel and its 55 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 5: partners using large numbers of air defense missiles to protect themselves. 56 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: How much does one of those patriot air defense missiles 57 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 2: that the US and Israel are using cost? And what's 58 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: the life span of this technology. 59 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 5: It's a missile, so you fire at once and it's done, 60 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 5: and they cost about four million dollars each, maybe maybe 61 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 5: a few hundred thousand dollars more. So you can kind 62 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 5: of see the mismatch between using a relatively expensive weapon 63 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 5: like that to defend against something smaller and cheaper like 64 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 5: the sort of head one thirty six one way attack 65 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 5: drone basically rudimentary, cheap, slow cruise missiles that Iran has 66 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 5: and is launched in large numbers. If you use your 67 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 5: air defense missile to defend against the system like that, 68 00:03:58,200 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 5: you're losing the money battle. 69 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 2: And Becca, you've been crunching the numbers on this, can 70 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 2: you walk us through what we know about the supply 71 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 2: of munitions on either side and how we know what 72 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 2: we know? 73 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: All right, so let's start with Iran. Iran, we don't 74 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 1: have a very good sense of their missile and drone stockpiles, 75 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 1: and part of that is by design. Last numbers that 76 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: we have is Iran had about two thousand or so 77 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: ballistic missiles prior to the Twelve Day War and that 78 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 1: some of those were fired in great number, and then 79 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: it has tried to rebuild in that interrect num period. 80 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: In terms of drones, we don't have good data on 81 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: what Iran drone production rates are, specifically shaw heads, but 82 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: we do have some decent data. On the Russian side, 83 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: they've been able to crank out upwards of four hundred 84 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: a day. So if you assume that Iran has a 85 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 1: very similar production rate. Iaine that their drone arsenal is 86 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: quite large. Shifting over to the US and its golf partners, 87 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: the Golf partners have spent years and years buying US weaponry, 88 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 1: including a lot of very expensive air defense systems. We 89 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: don't have a good sense of their stockpile numbers, but 90 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: we have heard that they are running low on some 91 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 1: of the precious air defense interceptors that they've been using, 92 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: as Jerry said, to take out the missile and drone 93 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: thread emanating from Iran since the start of this conflict. 94 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: There's just never enough air defense systems to go around. 95 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: There are never enough missiles and interceptors. So we don't 96 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: have a good sense of stockpile numbers because they are classified, 97 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 1: but at the rate at which they've been used, you 98 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: could imagine that some of those are running a little 99 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: bit low. That doesn't mean that the US is running out, 100 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: but it does mean that the US may need to 101 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: pull them from other theaters if possible. When you look 102 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: at some of the long range weapons, they're pricey, and 103 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: those have been used to great effects already in this conflict, 104 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: and the US is trying to shift away from using 105 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: those standoff weapons to now using closer range stand in 106 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: weapons in part because those joint attack munitions are more plentiful. 107 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: But that requires the US to be able to get 108 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: a little bit closer in order to drop these largely 109 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: by air. 110 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 5: Maybe to put a sort of a quantifiable point on that, right, 111 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 5: So if the US used to say two hundred and 112 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 5: fifty Tomahawk missiles in the opening days of this operation, 113 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 5: so each of those is going to cost let's sort 114 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 5: of ballpark at a million dollars each day, probably a. 115 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: Little bit more than that, one point seven. 116 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 5: One point seven, all right, so let's say two let's 117 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 5: just call it an even two million. So that's five 118 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 5: as a half billion dollars spent just on the munitions, right, 119 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 5: and we currently manufacture something like ninety Tomahawks a year, 120 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 5: So it would take you two and a half years 121 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,799 Speaker 5: to replace the Tomahawks that were fired over the course 122 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 5: of one day at the cost of half billion dollars. 123 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 2: What we're talking talking about here in terms of the 124 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 2: cadence of how many munitions have already been deployed just 125 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 2: you know, ten days into this war, is this typical? 126 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 5: Becca. 127 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: I think the intensity of US and Israeli strikes is 128 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: quite notable. The United States has said that they alone 129 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: have conducted over three thousand strikes. You also have the 130 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: Department of Defense saying that they have used more air 131 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: power in the first few days at this conflict than 132 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: they did in the opening days of the war on Iraq. 133 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: So you know, if you look at this historically, it's 134 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: a massive use of air power, it's a massive use 135 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: of missiles. It's a massive use of American force, which 136 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: leads to the question of how long does this go on? 137 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 2: Becca, What are the plans to replace weapons that have 138 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 2: already been used in this conflict? Is production ramping up 139 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 2: and how quickly could that happen? 140 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: Production is ramping up, but I wouldn't say that it's quick. 141 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: More recently, there have been efforts to try and scale 142 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: missile production. Missiles and munitions are very volatile in terms 143 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: of their procurement, and the thing that usually ends up 144 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: on the cutting room floor had traditionally been munitions. I think, 145 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: you know, Ukraine was a wake up call for the 146 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: United States and that it needed to get after this problem. 147 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: So we did see some efforts there. More recently, we 148 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 1: have this announcement of a potential supplemental for munitions to 149 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 1: try and ramp up supply of some of the most 150 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: critical munitions, including those air defense interceptors that have been 151 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 1: used like Patriot THAD, as well as the standard missile series. 152 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: But those are going to be longer term efforts. When 153 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: they're saying that they're going to ramp production, we're looking 154 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: at you know what, the White House says, quadrupling it, 155 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: but that's not until the twenty thirties. So it's going 156 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: to take a while for that to happen, in part 157 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: because it's a lengthy endeavor and there's a lot of 158 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 1: bottlenecks that exist in the munition's production process. 159 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 2: And what about on the Iranian side, how is Iran 160 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 2: thinking about replacing munitions as they run through them? 161 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 5: Jerry, it's very difficult to tell from the outside what 162 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 5: they're able to produce. Most of their production facilities at 163 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 5: this point in the war are going to be in 164 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 5: places where you can't see them easily from the satellite, 165 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 5: maybe you know, underground, buried in a mountain, disguised as 166 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 5: something else, and it's going to be much easier for 167 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 5: them to replace the cheaper, lower an ammunition they're using 168 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 5: like the head, you know, sort of these small cruise missiles, 169 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 5: which you know are just a small step up from 170 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 5: being a remote control airplane with an artillery shell strap 171 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 5: to it. Missiles are obviously much more difficult to produce 172 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 5: in terms of materials, in terms of the expertise the 173 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 5: machinery that you need to do that and get them 174 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 5: to work well. So it's makes me as very unlikely 175 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 5: that Iran will be able to generate more missiles while 176 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 5: the war is going on. 177 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 2: It seems like what you're both describing is that the 178 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: US is using missiles like Patriots that take lots of 179 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 2: time millions of dollars to produce to shoot down drones 180 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 2: like the show Heads that are cheap and quick to produce. 181 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 2: I'm wondering whether that poses a sustainability challenge for the 182 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 2: US here or gives Iran a leg up. 183 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 5: It's a sustainability challenge in the sense not that the 184 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 5: US is going to run out of munition, even air 185 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 5: defense missiles full stop. It's more that they would have 186 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 5: to confront strain on their inventory that would post them 187 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 5: to pull from other places that are very important to 188 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 5: the US military es, such as the Indo Pacific, where 189 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 5: you have China, which is the world's largest conventional billistic 190 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 5: missile inventory, with US bases obviously in Korea, Japan, Guam 191 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 5: under threat from those missiles. So that would be the 192 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 5: danger for the US side that they start having to 193 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 5: rob Peter to pay Paul in order to keep their 194 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 5: air defenses in the Middle East robust. 195 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 2: After the break, Bloomberg's Global Defense editor Jerry Doyle and 196 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics Defense lead Becca Wasser on what we know 197 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 2: about the economic cost and the opportunity cost of the 198 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 2: war so far. Becca, I'm hoping you can help us 199 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 2: put the overall cost of this war into context. How 200 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 2: much has this been costing the US already, even in 201 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 2: its first few days. 202 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 1: So I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but some smart 203 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: analysts in DC already have, and we are looking at 204 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: billions billions of dollars just in pure operational cost alone. 205 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: We don't have numbers of what has been expended yet, 206 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: and once we do, I think we're going to see 207 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 1: an enormous cost. But I think it's worth remembering that 208 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 1: the human cost of war is probably the greatest cost. 209 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: Already we are seeing civilians in Iran taking the brunt 210 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: of this conflict. We are also seeing human loss of 211 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: life throughout the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East 212 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: as well. And we've also seen now seven US service 213 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: members killed, which is very, very notable for the United States. So, 214 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: you know, we have the financial costs, but war is 215 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: not just about financial cost and even in an attritional war, 216 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: materiel is not going to be the most decisive factor 217 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: at the end of the day. The decision to end 218 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: a war is often political, and sometimes it's more on 219 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: the human cost that actually brings folks to the table. 220 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 2: I mean, on how long might it take for those costs, 221 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 2: those costs of human lives and those billions of dollars 222 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 2: that have already spent on this war to filter into 223 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,479 Speaker 2: the political arena and make a difference in terms of 224 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 2: how the administration is thinking about continuing this war. 225 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 5: To a certain extent, some of the war is already 226 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 5: funded through the Pentagon Defense Department budget that was approved 227 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 5: last year for twenty twenty six. Additional cost like the 228 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 5: you know, fifty billion dollars for additional munitions and operation. 229 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 5: That stuff is it's going to have to be paid 230 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 5: for somehow, and I'm sure that senators and representatives in 231 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 5: Congress are going to make hey one way or the 232 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 5: other about who's paying for it. 233 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 2: I mean, this obviously is not the only conflict that 234 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 2: the US has waded into this year. Right We've seen 235 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 2: Trump Mountain Operation to top of the leader of Venezuela. 236 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 2: He's made noises about Greenland and Cuba, which is currently 237 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 2: under an oil blockade. So politics and costs aside from 238 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: a perspective of troops, personnel, weaponry, you know, how many 239 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 2: more battles can the US military sustain? And is that 240 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 2: something that weighs on Trump or the US right now? 241 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 5: I mean I can say that, you know, twenty five 242 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 5: to thirty years ago, the US military was sort of 243 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 5: the idea that it was designed to fight two wars 244 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 5: at once, much as it did in World War Two, 245 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 5: sort of fighting in the Pacific and fighting in Europe. 246 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 5: That's not really the case anymore. Sort that shifted to 247 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 5: we're going to be able to fight one war at 248 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 5: a time and deter another war. 249 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: And I think all of this speaks to a longer 250 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: readiness challenge for the US military. Already, we're seeing such 251 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: wear and tear on equipment, we are seeing forces, you know, 252 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: overseas or out at sea for extended deployments. We're seeing 253 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: a ton of weapons being used that aren't quickly and 254 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: easily replaced, and that just means that the United States 255 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: might be less prepared to deal with unforeseen crises, to 256 00:14:55,720 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: mount another operation, say against Cuba or elsewhere, or even 257 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: in the long term, be able to deter and if needed, 258 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: defend against potential aggression in the Indo Pacific if something 259 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: were to pop off with China. 260 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 2: I mean, as we talk about other conflicts, you know, 261 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 2: the Russia Ukraine war is waging on. Ukraine has been 262 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: seeking US missiles for its defense, and it recently came 263 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 2: up with a proposal for a swap of sorts to 264 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: help the US defend against Iran. I'm wondering if you 265 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 2: could talk about what they're offering and how that fits 266 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:30,359 Speaker 2: into this conversation. 267 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 5: So Ukraine has sort of helped develop this theory of 268 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 5: layered air defenses for protecting against the drone that that 269 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 5: until the Iran War we hadn't really seen at large 270 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 5: scale anywhere else. What Zelensky has proposed publicly is that 271 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 5: Ukraine would help out with some systems at eight users 272 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 5: to intercept Jones cheaply. They can provide that sort of 273 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,359 Speaker 5: hardware and that sort of equipment, but also the expertise 274 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 5: they have and sort of arranging and layering drone defense, 275 00:15:57,920 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 5: because this is some things is a problem that they've 276 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 5: printed every day for years and gotten pretty good at solving. 277 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 5: And Ukraine has also in exchange, asked for more airfense missiles, 278 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 5: specifically Patriot Pac three missiles, which are being burned through 279 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 5: in the Middle East right now. 280 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:19,359 Speaker 2: We talked at the top about the Iran war becoming attritional, 281 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 2: So I want to wrap up this conversation by asking Becca, 282 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 2: from where we sit today, which side is positioned to 283 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 2: outlast the other in this war? 284 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: If you're judging by pure hardware alone, the answer is 285 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: probably the United States, based on it's much larger military, 286 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: it's much larger arsenal, and everything that it could bring 287 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: to bear in this conflict. But at the end of 288 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 1: the day, war is not just about the number of 289 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: missiles that you have or the capabilities. It really does 290 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: come down to will and will to fight, and for 291 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: Iran this is an existential one. So you can imagine 292 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: that even if the US could outlast Iran, in terms 293 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: of weapons and capabilities a number of forces. Iran is 294 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: going to continue this for as long as they possibly can. 295 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 5: It sort of depends on what the operational goal is 296 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 5: for the US. Is it regime change. If that's the case, 297 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 5: then by that standard, maybe Iran ends up on top. 298 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 5: If their campaign continues and they're saying that the goal 299 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:39,199 Speaker 5: is for Iran to be completely disarmed, then maybe you 300 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 5: could come up with some sort of a theory of 301 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 5: victory for that Iran runs out of weapons or its 302 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 5: stockpiles are destroyed, then maybe you can say the US 303 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 5: wins that scenario. Melli Becka was saying, it's sort of 304 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 5: appearing victory. You know that the US would have burned 305 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 5: through a tremendous amount of hardware. It would have suffered, 306 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 5: you know, casualty both dead and wounded. It would have 307 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 5: inflicted quite a bit of destruction and death on Iran, 308 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 5: destabilized the region, and sort of destabilize the oil markets. 309 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 5: If it comes to a scenario where the US stops 310 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 5: bombing because around that shooting, then it really hard to 311 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 5: view that in any terms other than sort of a stalemate. 312 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 5: And then it's about rebuilding and trying to repair all 313 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 5: the damage not just in the Middle East but around 314 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 5: the world. 315 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think if you look at the historical 316 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: record of protracted conflicts, you have these intense periods of 317 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: fighting followed by bouts of reconstitution and where you're trying 318 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:44,479 Speaker 1: to rebuild your forces before restarting the fighting again. And 319 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: that's a really scary thing to think about because that 320 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: puts the US and Iran potentially in a cycle of 321 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: conflict for a very long time and very much invokes 322 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: the idea of some of the forever wars that Trump 323 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: campaigned against and said that he wouldn't get involved in 324 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 1: in the Middle East. 325 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,400 Speaker 5: I think it's also important to look again at the outcome. 326 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 5: What is a goal that the US is trying to 327 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 5: bring about with this military action. You can be completely dominant, 328 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 5: you can destroy the other guy's military completely, but if 329 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 5: you aren't achieving an effect in whatever effect it is 330 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 5: you're going for, then you're just fighting. 331 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:27,199 Speaker 1: Operational success is not the same as strategic success. 332 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 333 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 334 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 335 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 2: dot com Slash Podcast offer, thanks for listening. We'll be 336 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 2: back tomorrow.