WEBVTT - US & Iran Weigh Truce Extension; Stocks Extend Record Highs

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.

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<v Speaker 3>Here are the stories we're following today, Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>Momentum is building in the market for a possible longer

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<v Speaker 2>ceasefire between the US and Iran, the source tells Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 2>Both sides are considering a two week extension to allow

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<v Speaker 2>for more talks around contentious issues like reopening the Strait

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<v Speaker 2>of horror moves and Iran's nuclear program. White House Press

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary Caroline Levitt says the US has not asked for

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<v Speaker 2>a formal extension yet.

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<v Speaker 4>We've remained very much engaged in these negotiations. In these talks,

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<v Speaker 4>you heard from the Vice President directly and the President

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<v Speaker 4>this week that these conversations are productive and ongoing, and

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<v Speaker 4>that's where we are right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Press Secretary Caroline Levitt at the White House. We get

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<v Speaker 2>more from Bloomberg's Jumana Bursecci in Dubai.

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<v Speaker 5>No date has been set, there's no official confirmation yet

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<v Speaker 5>that these talks are happening. Actually, the White House Press

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<v Speaker 5>Secretory Caroline Levitt said yesterday that the US had not

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<v Speaker 5>put in a formal proposal to extend the seasfire by

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<v Speaker 5>two weeks, but she did say if another round of

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<v Speaker 5>talks are going to be held, they would likely be

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<v Speaker 5>held in Islamabad in Pakistan. And Pakistan for their port

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<v Speaker 5>I will say are working the diplomatic channels aggressively. The

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<v Speaker 5>Army chief site semineers in Tehran for ceasefire talks and

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<v Speaker 5>meeting with some of the chief negotiators on the Iranian side.

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<v Speaker 5>The Iranian state media are reporting that the US have

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<v Speaker 5>relayed a message via the Pakistani mediators to the Iranian side,

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<v Speaker 5>so we'll see what their response is going to be.

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<v Speaker 2>In the meantime, Bloomberg's Jumani Barsetti reports the US naval

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<v Speaker 2>blockade of the Strait of Hornmuz continues. Iran State Television

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<v Speaker 2>reports the Iranian military sees prolonging the blockade as a

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<v Speaker 2>prelude to a breach of the ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 3>Well if in former Secretary of State John Carey played

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<v Speaker 3>a key role in the nuclear deal with the Rum

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<v Speaker 3>that President Trump rejected in his first term, he tells

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's fancy in Lachwa could have been avoided if the

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<v Speaker 3>President had stuck with the deal.

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<v Speaker 6>What's happened is a war that had been certainly postponed

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<v Speaker 6>and probably avoided. Most likely it was made inevitable almost

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<v Speaker 6>when the President pulled out, and we are where we

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<v Speaker 6>are but now.

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<v Speaker 3>Secretary Kerry says the blockade of the Strait of Juamuz

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<v Speaker 3>could be a smart decision to pressure Iran, but only

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<v Speaker 3>if the US is willing to compromise.

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<v Speaker 2>The Karen talks are scheduled to continue now between Israel

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<v Speaker 2>and Lebanon, and Israeli official says Prime Minister Benjamin NETANYAHUO

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<v Speaker 2>and Lebanese President Joseph Ayun will speak today following ambassador

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<v Speaker 2>level talks in the US earlier this week. Those were

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<v Speaker 2>the first direct discussions between the Middle Eastern countries in

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<v Speaker 2>more than three decades.

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<v Speaker 3>Month in a series of suspiciously well timed trades in

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<v Speaker 3>the oil futures market during the war has caught the

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<v Speaker 3>attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Bloomberg's Amy Morris

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<v Speaker 3>has more from Washington.

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<v Speaker 7>Investigators are looking into instances over a peer of about

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<v Speaker 7>two weeks where trading volumes surged just before major announcements

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<v Speaker 7>and policy pivots by President Trump that raised alarm bells

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<v Speaker 7>about the potential misuse of non public information tied to

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<v Speaker 7>Trump's shifting stance on the war in Iran. The CFTC

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<v Speaker 7>wants to see the data from the exchanges, including who

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<v Speaker 7>was behind the trades. That investigation is now focused on

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<v Speaker 7>trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging to CME

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<v Speaker 7>Group and enter Continental Exchange in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 7>Amy Thanks back on Wall Street. The global stock market

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<v Speaker 7>rally continues this morning. Stocks in Japan closed at an

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<v Speaker 7>all time high. The MSCI All Country Index, which had

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<v Speaker 7>dropped as much as nine percent since the start of

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<v Speaker 7>the war, has erased those declines, and the S and

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<v Speaker 7>P five hundred closed above the seven thousand level for

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<v Speaker 7>the first time, while the Nasdaq one hundred also ended

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<v Speaker 7>the yesterday session at an all time high. Wall Street

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<v Speaker 7>veteran Ed Yardenny says investors are looking past the war

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<v Speaker 7>and focusing now on fundamentals.

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<v Speaker 8>When you look at the history of geopolitical crises, especially

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<v Speaker 8>as they affected the S and P five hundred, history

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<v Speaker 8>shows that geopolitical crisis turned out to be great buying opportunities.

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<v Speaker 8>So just when everything looks most dire and grim, that's

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<v Speaker 8>when investors come in and conclude that the war will

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<v Speaker 8>eventually end and peace will follow.

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<v Speaker 2>At Yard Denny with your Denny Research notes the S

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<v Speaker 2>and P five hundred reached its bottom on March thirtieth, Well, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>Despite the market optimism, voices at this week's World Bank

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<v Speaker 3>and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington are more cautious.

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<v Speaker 3>IMF Managing Director Chris de Alina Georgieva says investors maybe

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<v Speaker 3>underestimating the economic damage from the war.

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<v Speaker 9>Why are markets so optimistic? I think part of the

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<v Speaker 9>reason is because there is a high concentration of financial

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<v Speaker 9>assets in the United States. US economy is doing well.

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<v Speaker 9>It is relatively not so impacted because the US is

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<v Speaker 9>a now export and not importer, and that creates that

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<v Speaker 9>picture of dynamism and vibrancy. But I can tell you

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<v Speaker 9>that's not the story of the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 9>In the rest of the world already there is a

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<v Speaker 9>lot of pain.

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<v Speaker 3>I am F Managing Director Kristallina Georgiaeva made the comments

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<v Speaker 3>in an interview with Bloomberg's Friends, saying, lochwa catch our

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<v Speaker 3>full conversation with Georgiaeva and former Secretary of State John

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<v Speaker 3>Kerry and our new video experience on the Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's check some stocks in the news this morning. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>Karen Taiwan's Semiconductor Manufacturing is raising its revenue outlook for

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<v Speaker 2>the year. The upbeat forecast underscores the resilience of AICHIP

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<v Speaker 2>demand despite concerns about the economic fallout from the war

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<v Speaker 2>CSMC is the main chip maker for Nvidia and Apple.

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<v Speaker 2>It expects revenue to grow more than thirty percent.

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<v Speaker 3>This afternoon, Nathan we get earnings from a streaming giant, Netflix,

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<v Speaker 3>and Bloomberg's Town Busby has a preview.

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<v Speaker 10>Well, this is the first earnings report from Netflix and

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<v Speaker 10>to walked away from an ugly battle to acquire most

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<v Speaker 10>of Warner Brothers.

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<v Speaker 11>Discovery.

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<v Speaker 10>Analysts expect the company to report a fifteen percent increase

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<v Speaker 10>in revenue thanks to live sporting and concert events and

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<v Speaker 10>from advertising. Raising its subscription fee in March to twenty

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<v Speaker 10>dollars for the standard plan without ads also helped Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 10>consensus calls for revenue of twelve point one seven billion

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<v Speaker 10>dollars on earnings per share of seventy six cents. Tom

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<v Speaker 10>Busby Bloomberg Radio Okay Tom.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks to a federal jury in New York has found

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<v Speaker 2>Live Nation Entertainment illegally monopolized the live events industry and

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<v Speaker 2>overcharged fans. The verdict marks a major win for a

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<v Speaker 2>coalition of thirty three states and Washington, DC that pursued

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<v Speaker 2>this case despite the Justice Department's recent settlement that allowed

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<v Speaker 2>Live Nation to keep its ticket master unit. Jenniferree is

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<v Speaker 2>a senior antitrust litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 12>I think this ruling is significant because, honestly, it's been

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<v Speaker 12>over the years very very difficult for plaintiffs to win

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<v Speaker 12>monopolization suits against bacmpanies, and in particular a suit like

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<v Speaker 12>this one where the federal government is no longer in

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<v Speaker 12>the case because they settled, and it's a group of

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<v Speaker 12>states only going out on their own. And it just

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<v Speaker 12>shows that that plaintiffs can win these monopolization suits where

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<v Speaker 12>they have compelling evidence, even where it's really hard fought

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<v Speaker 12>by the defense.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jenri says the states are now seeking

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<v Speaker 2>as much as seven hundred million dollars in damages and

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<v Speaker 2>possibly additional penalties. Live Nation says it will appeal.

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<v Speaker 3>Time now for a look at some many of their

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<v Speaker 3>stories making news in New York and around the world,

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<v Speaker 3>and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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<v Speaker 11>Michael, good Morning, Good Morning Karen. Today, New Jersey voters

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<v Speaker 11>will pick Governor Monkey Cheryl's replacement in Congress. Cheryl had

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<v Speaker 11>to give up her eleventh district seat after being elected.

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<v Speaker 11>Governor Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway is the Republican nominee.

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<v Speaker 13>One of my big platforms is to freeze taxes for

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<v Speaker 13>first time home buyers.

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<v Speaker 7>Home ownership in New Jersey is more challenging than ever.

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<v Speaker 11>Progressive Annaliliya Mahea is the Democratic nominee.

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<v Speaker 14>We lost the healthcare tax credits because of the Republican Party,

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<v Speaker 14>and now healthcare costs are up one hundred and seventy

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<v Speaker 14>five percent in one year. We lost energy tax credits

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<v Speaker 14>and that's why energy prices are up.

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<v Speaker 11>Audio courtesy of ABC seven New York City. Dorman and

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<v Speaker 11>other staff voted to authorize a strike, which would disrupt

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<v Speaker 11>operations at co ops, condos, and apartment buildings as soon

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<v Speaker 11>as April twenty first. The workers are pushing back against

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<v Speaker 11>possible reductions in healthcare coverage, advocating for pay hikes and

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<v Speaker 11>demanding that building owners strengthen the pension fund. The fallout

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<v Speaker 11>continues after Vice President Vance made comments about Pope Leo's

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<v Speaker 11>criticism of the war in Iran. The Vice President said

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<v Speaker 11>Pope Leo should be careful when he talks about matters

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<v Speaker 11>of theology. Yesterday, House Speaker Mike Johnson weighed in on

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<v Speaker 11>the comments.

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<v Speaker 10>It is a very well settled matter of a Christian theology.

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<v Speaker 3>There's something called the just war doctrine, a time to

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<v Speaker 3>every purpose under heaven.

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<v Speaker 11>The pope criticized President Trump's rhetoric about destroying a civilization.

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<v Speaker 11>New Yorkers have been soaking up some sun as some

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<v Speaker 11>parts of the country deal with damaging severe storms. The

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<v Speaker 11>East Coast is enjoying eighty five to ninety degree days.

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<v Speaker 11>This woman was out in Washington Square Park.

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<v Speaker 13>How abready the.

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<v Speaker 7>UVS eight so trying to tan.

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<v Speaker 12>Yeah, got some.

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<v Speaker 11>Ice cream today. Once again it will be mostly sunny man.

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<v Speaker 10>Huh.

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<v Speaker 11>Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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<v Speaker 11>wanted with Bloomberg News now, not Michael barn, this is

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<v Speaker 11>Bloomberg hearen.

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<v Speaker 10>Thanks Michael.

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<v Speaker 3>Time now for our Bloomberg sports update, and for that

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<v Speaker 3>we bring in John stash hour.

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<v Speaker 13>Thanks Garrett Twomore NBA play in games. Philadelphia had to

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<v Speaker 13>play without Joe Lmby due to his appendectomy. The Sixers

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<v Speaker 13>still beat Orlando one oh nine ninety seven. That makes

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<v Speaker 13>Philly the seventh seed in the East. They'll play the

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<v Speaker 13>Celtics in the first round. It means the Magic will

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<v Speaker 13>play again on Friday at home against Charlotte and the

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<v Speaker 13>Winter will be the eighth seed. Played Detroit Golden Stay

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<v Speaker 13>led by Steph Curry over the Clippers in LA. That

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<v Speaker 13>moves the Warriors to a game tomorrow in Phoenix to

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<v Speaker 13>see who'll be the eighth seed in the West. The

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<v Speaker 13>season over for the Clippers. That's the Bloomberg Sports Update.

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<v Speaker 3>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 1>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning on Nathan Hager. There's some optimism now that

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<v Speaker 2>the break in fighting between the US and Iran could

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<v Speaker 2>last a little longer. Bloomberg News has learned both countries

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<v Speaker 2>are considering a ceasefire extension the White House. Press Secretary

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<v Speaker 2>Caroline Levitt says the US hasn't asked for one yet.

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<v Speaker 4>I saw some reporting, again bad reporting this morning, that

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<v Speaker 4>we had formally requested an extension of the ceasefire. That

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<v Speaker 4>is not true at this moment.

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<v Speaker 2>That was Press Secretary Caroline Levit at the White House

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<v Speaker 2>yesterday joining us this morning from Dubai is Bloomberg Mida

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<v Speaker 2>Least corresponded Jumana Brossecci, the anchor of Bloomberg Horizons. So

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<v Speaker 2>Jumana just to pick up on what Caroline leve was saying.

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<v Speaker 2>What is true this morning? What do we know about

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<v Speaker 2>the prospect for further talks? Good morning?

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<v Speaker 15>Yeah, well, Caroline love it. They're saying that the US

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<v Speaker 15>had not formally requested a c's for our extension. But

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<v Speaker 15>she also went on to say that if there were

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<v Speaker 15>going to be if there was going to be a

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<v Speaker 15>second round of talks, it would likely happen in Islamabad.

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<v Speaker 15>And we know that the diplomatic channels are being actively worked.

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<v Speaker 15>Over the last twenty four hours, the Chief of Army

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<v Speaker 15>of Pakistan made a visit to Tehran. Apparently he is

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<v Speaker 15>conveying messages from the US, and those messages have been

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<v Speaker 15>relaid back and forth, so Pakistan also acting as sort

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<v Speaker 15>of a message go between between the US and Iran here.

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<v Speaker 15>At the same time, the Pakistani Prime Minister, long alongside

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<v Speaker 15>the delegation, is making a trip through the region. Yesterday

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<v Speaker 15>he was in Saudi Arabia. Today he's heading to Katar,

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<v Speaker 15>and then he's going to Turkey and again all of

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<v Speaker 15>those three countries, increasingly more so Saudi Arabia as well,

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<v Speaker 15>looking to play some form of a diplomatic mediation role

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<v Speaker 15>should these talks go ahead. But I should say at

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<v Speaker 15>this point, no time and no venue has been confirmed.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, Well, we've heard from President Trump saying that the

0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:22.040
<v Speaker 2>next two days could be key toward getting potentially a

0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.839
<v Speaker 2>big deal. I believe that was two days ago. What's

0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:28.320
<v Speaker 2>the prospect of that at this point.

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.760
<v Speaker 15>Well, there is a clock that's sticking in the background,

0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:33.959
<v Speaker 15>and it's less to do with Trump's deadline and more

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 15>to do with the ceasefire x fire, which I guess

0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:39.560
<v Speaker 15>that goes back to President Trump, But technically it expires

0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 15>on the twenty second over here in the region, twenty

0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 15>first in the US, and so we do have a

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 15>couple of more days before decision has to be made

0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:51.640
<v Speaker 15>about whether that ceasfire expires, whether it continues. Remember yesterday

0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:53.560
<v Speaker 15>we were reporting that at the same time as we're

0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:56.680
<v Speaker 15>speaking about the big efforts on the diplomatic side of things,

0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.920
<v Speaker 15>there has continued to be a build up military assets

0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 15>in the region as well. So perhaps from the US perspective,

0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.840
<v Speaker 15>looking to continually apply a pressure to the Iranian side

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 15>to come back to the table. But at the same time,

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.559
<v Speaker 15>you've got all of those mediators and even I would say,

0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 15>and I should have mentioned this before, even the UAE

0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.079
<v Speaker 15>received a call from the Iranian Speaker of the parliament yesterday,

0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 15>the first time that UE has spoken to Iran since

0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.480
<v Speaker 15>the inception of the war. So there is a feeling

0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.920
<v Speaker 15>from the region that there's momentum to de escalate. What

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.000
<v Speaker 15>shape or format we just don't know yet.

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.720
<v Speaker 2>Okay, Well, in the meantime, of course, we have this

0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.760
<v Speaker 2>trickle moving through the strait of hormones, the blockade of

0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 2>the blockade as it were, How does that potentially complicate things?

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:43.600
<v Speaker 2>And are Iran's leaders in Iran's military on the same

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.040
<v Speaker 2>page when it comes to enforcement of the blockade.

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.480
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, So what we understand is there are a couple

0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.720
<v Speaker 15>of sticking points still when it comes to those negotiations.

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.880
<v Speaker 15>One of them, of course, still the fate of the strait,

0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 15>so to speak. The Central commands that are saying, and

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.840
<v Speaker 15>they said they've iterated this overnight that they have full

0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 15>superiority over maritime shipping, that there have been around a

0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.400
<v Speaker 15>dozen merchant vessels that have been forced to turn back

0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:15.199
<v Speaker 15>and go back to Iranian ports. As you say, there's

0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:18.200
<v Speaker 15>still a trickle of vessels coming in. They're being closely monitored,

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:20.400
<v Speaker 15>and it's quite difficult to monitor because many of them

0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 15>just turned their signals off as they're passing through the strait.

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:25.600
<v Speaker 15>But the point is we're very far away from where

0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:28.880
<v Speaker 15>we were before the war even kicked off, and now

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 15>half a dozen vessels going through the street today isn't

0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:34.360
<v Speaker 15>going to move the needle on energy. But I think

0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 15>the objective, as we spoke about yesterday, is really for

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.840
<v Speaker 15>the US to apply increasing the economic pressure on Iran

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.040
<v Speaker 15>to cut off this key lifeline for their oil exports,

0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.800
<v Speaker 15>that when they do come to the next round of negotiations,

0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 15>they potentially would be more open to give concessions.

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:54.720
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