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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. The podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five, part of the Action Network. I'm Shadmiman, chief

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Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. As I've said, as

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Speaker 1: I said last episode, we are full force Football every

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Speaker 1: Tuesday Thursday until the end of the Super Bowl. We

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Speaker 1: will add the Sunday night shows starting with Week one

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Speaker 1: of NFL season. Next week we kick off the division

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Speaker 1: previews with about five six seven weeks until the start

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Speaker 1: of the NFL season. Huge show today ESPN NFL Superstar

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Speaker 1: Analyst Bill Barnwell is going to come on the show

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Speaker 1: in a few minutes. But first, my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Mike Padre professional better Simon Hunter, Hello, sowing.

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Speaker 2: In, Hello Chad. I actually recently heard from our three

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Speaker 2: female fans we have. You wouldn't believe we have three

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Speaker 2: fans at our female and they all love you. Chad.

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Speaker 2: Apparently I was a little too mean to you on

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Speaker 2: our podcast a couple of weeks ago, and I explained him,

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Speaker 2: it's just that I miss you. Like if I had

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Speaker 2: to put an overrunner on Chad, I'd put his overrunner

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Speaker 2: at his age when he'd passed away at like one ten,

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Speaker 2: and I'd probably still tick the over Chad. People don't

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Speaker 2: get at Chad. You have what like thirty beats per minute.

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Speaker 2: You live off grains and nuts. Like literally, if we

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Speaker 2: could go back in time, if this was nineteen forty,

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Speaker 2: Chad's the type of guy you drop off in some

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Speaker 2: field in Nazi Germany and he would survive off a

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Speaker 2: bag of rice for about six years, and he would

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Speaker 2: kill thousands of Germans and they would never know his

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Speaker 2: Chad is the perfect type for a sniper. He's got

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Speaker 2: low he's got he doesn't eat anything, he's got a

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Speaker 2: low heartbeat. He is literally a killer. People don't get

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Speaker 2: that about Chad. So me, I'm the other way. Like,

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Speaker 2: if I got dropped off in Germany, I'd last, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, maybe two days off that bag of rice

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Speaker 2: at all. I wouldn't been a lay in a field

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Speaker 2: for multiple months. But Chad here, Chad's a killer. So

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Speaker 2: people very sensitive. Chad to me, make a fun of

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Speaker 2: your age. Chad's gonna live forever. People, I'm like my

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Speaker 2: over unders eighty. Chad's won ten. So just relax, people, relax.

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Speaker 2: Me and Chad love each other.

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Speaker 1: We oh my god, we so love each other. But

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Speaker 1: I think my feeling on this is that people people

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Speaker 1: always assume because I'm smiling and happy that I'm a

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Speaker 1: nice guy. At the end of the day, I'm just not.

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Speaker 2: You're a killer. Chad's a killer people.

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Speaker 1: I am one hundred percent of sniper, and I'm sure

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Speaker 1: our sponsors at Bet three six five are thrilled to

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Speaker 1: be associated with. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is

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Speaker 1: probably presented presented by BET three six five, the world's

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Speaker 1: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to

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Speaker 1: problem call or text one eight hundred gambler. I promised

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Speaker 1: the Man, the Myth, the Legend, Bill Barnwell, the most

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Speaker 1: popular writer at ESPN, and so popular they had to

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Speaker 1: put his column behind a paywall. And he drives so

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Speaker 1: much money because people have to pay to sign up

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Speaker 1: to read his stuff, and it's brilliant. I can tell

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Speaker 1: you when I was running ESPN dot com get Away

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Speaker 1: for Monday mornings because I knew our traffic would pop

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Speaker 1: because as soon as Barnwell filed, we put on the

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Speaker 1: front page. It was a meteoric explosion. Barnwell, welcome back

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Speaker 1: to the Bard.

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Speaker 3: Hey buddy, how's it going.

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Speaker 4: I would like to get that in writing for contract

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Speaker 4: negotiations as I can.

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Speaker 1: Well listen, I'm here for you. I'm big, I'm your

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Speaker 1: biggest agent. Like, whatever you want, I'm gonna give it

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Speaker 1: to you. But all I ask is that today you

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Speaker 1: give us your best when it comes to the NFL

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Speaker 1: because the season is fast approaching. There are so many

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Speaker 1: great storylines right now. We have a massive script that

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell put together. Before we even get to it,

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Speaker 1: I know he wants me to talk about, like the

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Speaker 1: podcast you did with Mina. I texted you about a

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Speaker 1: month ago. I saw you and Mina on the NFL

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Speaker 1: Show in the afternoon. I'm like, the fuck is going

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Speaker 1: on here? But I was I was begging people to

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Speaker 1: put Barnwell and Mina on TV. And now it's like,

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Speaker 1: you guys are running the show. You have inherited the earth.

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Speaker 1: It's fantastic. Before we get to that, you just had

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Speaker 1: a column come out and it's sort of highlighted the

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Speaker 1: people that have the most on the line. And you

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Speaker 1: had done this last year and you talked about Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 1: and Jalen Hurts you said, if he has good year,

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Speaker 1: he makes one hundred million dollars guarantee. Turns out he

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Speaker 1: made one hundred and ten. You WoT a guy in there,

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Speaker 1: Jets GM, Joe Douglas. I did, who has the most

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Speaker 1: on the line. And I don't think we can talk

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Speaker 1: about the NFL right now without talking about the Jets

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Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers. Today, the news is that he gave

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Speaker 1: up thirty five million in salary so they could build

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Speaker 1: around him. Give me your logic on Joe Douglas.

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Speaker 4: Joe Douglas has essentially the same record after four years

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Speaker 4: as AGM that Dave Gettleman had when Dave Getleman was

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Speaker 4: fired unceremoniously. Ceremoniously, I think there were actual parades in

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Speaker 4: New York in the streets when Dave Geedelman was fired

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Speaker 4: by the way his team was hit the playoffs the

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Speaker 4: next year, but they for the story for a different day.

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Speaker 4: So Joe Douglas does not have a good record after

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Speaker 4: four years. He drafted Zach Wilson, who is the maybe

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Speaker 4: one of the worst draft picks up the last twenty

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Speaker 4: years when you consider he was the second overall pick

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Speaker 4: and was not playable halfway through his second season in

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Speaker 4: the NFL. He also drafted two Rookies of the Year

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Speaker 4: last year on the offensive and defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 4: So we know he's capable of something terrible and capable

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Speaker 4: of something great. But as we get to this year

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Speaker 4: where expectations for the Jets are quite high, they think

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Speaker 4: we can all agree that Jets have and Jets fans

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Speaker 4: certainly have lofty expectations after not making the playoffs since

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Speaker 4: twenty ten?

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Speaker 3: Who gets to blame?

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Speaker 4: Who gets blamed here when things go wrong? Let's say

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Speaker 4: the Jets finished seven and ten again. Is that going

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Speaker 4: to be blamed on Aaron Rodgers, who is the Hall

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Speaker 4: of Fame quarterback with a close to impeccable resume.

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 4: He'll get some of the blame, but he's going to

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Speaker 4: be around in twenty twenty four, especially after we saw

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Speaker 4: the terms of his post recent extension. Is it going

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Speaker 4: to be Robert Sala, who built a great defense, who

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Speaker 4: arrived a year later than Joe Douglass. No, it's not

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Speaker 4: going to be Robert Sala, because I think Robert Sala's

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Speaker 4: defense is not going to be the problem with this

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Speaker 4: football team. If things go south, it might be the

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Speaker 4: guy who traded a lot for Aaron Rodgers when there

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Speaker 4: were no other teams in the negotiation for Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 4: dig it in and take a pay cut, which is

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Speaker 4: great and obviously major progress, But the guy whose draft

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Speaker 4: picks that been either incredible or really bad, where it's

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Speaker 4: not just Zack Wilson, but it's Elijah Moore who was traded,

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Speaker 4: Denzel Mims, who has just traded the second round pick.

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Speaker 4: His top one hundred picks have either been total booms

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Speaker 4: or absolute bus And so if anyone's going to take

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Speaker 4: the blame from a frustrating year, you think it'd be

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Speaker 4: Joe Douglas. But if things go right and Joe Douglas

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Speaker 4: nations to the postseason and the Jets make a deep

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Speaker 4: playoff front, Joe Douglas is going to be GM of

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Speaker 4: the Year. He's going to be lauded, going to gain

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Speaker 4: at an extension. So he has a lot writing to

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Speaker 4: be on twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Simon and I have been on the fade

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Speaker 1: the Jets. Jets their season win total nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think the Patriots could be better. I think the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins could be better. I think the Bills could be better.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Jets make the playoffs because I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're going to come in higher than fourth

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Speaker 1: in their division unless all four teams make the playoffs

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Speaker 1: in the AFC East. Simon, I don't think i've asked

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Speaker 1: you this question. Do you think the Jets make the playoffs?

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Speaker 1: And then I'd like to get Bill's answer.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that feels right. Nine and seven I mean ten

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Speaker 2: and seven, I should say nowadays, right with the seventeen.

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Speaker 2: It's just they're right there. Nine and eight. Ten and

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Speaker 2: seven just feels the right number for the Jets. It's

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Speaker 2: last year. They got really lucky, right. They played a

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Speaker 2: bunch of backup quarterbacks, They had a bunch of things

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Speaker 2: to break their way. Even when Zach Wilson was terrible,

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Speaker 2: they still had nice matchups for that defense. Right, if

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Speaker 2: you go back and look through your schedule, they're in

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Speaker 2: every game just because that defense was so good. So

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Speaker 2: the Rogers part's really interesting, where they don't really need

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Speaker 2: the MVP Rodgers. This is probably the first time in

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Speaker 2: his career he set into a situation here Whi's truly

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Speaker 2: not on him. If if this defense can do what

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Speaker 2: they do and if he can just produce again, you're

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Speaker 2: his season last year, how terrible it was. That'd be

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Speaker 2: one of the best seasons ever for a Jets quarterback

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Speaker 2: in their history. That's how bad the quarterback play has

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Speaker 2: been for the New York Jets. So the Rogers thinks

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Speaker 2: so interesting where I was not shocked he took the

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Speaker 2: pay cut, but I just thought how cool that was

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Speaker 2: where he's literally saying, I'm ring chasing, like I got

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Speaker 2: the money already. If I can give them this money

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Speaker 2: back that Joe Douglas can get me more weapons, that's

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Speaker 2: a big deal. And I know the Joe Douglass pressure

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Speaker 2: is fair. I think he was He's a really smart guy,

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Speaker 2: like he was here at the Eagles with Howie. A

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Speaker 2: lot of moves how credit to him or where they

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Speaker 2: were really smart draft picks, really smart moves. He's had some,

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Speaker 2: for sure, some big misses, but I feel like he'll

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Speaker 2: have a two year no matter what. Even if they're

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Speaker 2: not great this year, maybe they missed the playoffs, I

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Speaker 2: feel like they'll give them what He'll give them one

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Speaker 2: more year with Joe, But I feel like he nailed

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Speaker 2: a chat. If it really is playoff for a bus

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Speaker 2: for this team, it's all there. Like Rodgers, maybe you

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Speaker 2: can have the excuse of oh, it's a new situation,

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Speaker 2: but the offense here is only true weakness Rogers is

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Speaker 2: gonna have this year. Is this offensive line compared to

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Speaker 2: the Packers is bad? Like this is not. This is

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Speaker 2: probably the worst offensive line he's had in the last

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Speaker 2: five six years. So to me, that's where it's really

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Speaker 2: interesting with this Jets team, where all the six positions

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Speaker 2: are good, right, They have Bracedole running back, they have

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Speaker 2: incredible wide receivers. I get all that, all that hype.

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Speaker 2: That's the big question mark to me is that offensive line.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how he's gonna deal with having that

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Speaker 2: kind of offensive line. So that's what I'm excited to

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Speaker 2: watch this preseason is how he does behind the front line.

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Speaker 4: Let me lay out. Let me lay out why I

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Speaker 4: think the Jets go under nine and a half wins

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Speaker 4: and why I think they're more likely to miss the

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Speaker 4: playoffs than make the playoffs. So let's start with the

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Speaker 4: defensive side of the ball. That's the strength of this team.

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Speaker 3: That's the thing.

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Speaker 4: If you can you know, there's no you don't have

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Speaker 4: to project them to get better. You can count on

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Speaker 4: them being just as good as they were a year ago.

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Speaker 4: But they were the healthiest defensive football last season, the

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Speaker 4: healthiest defense, and they've already lost one starter for the

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Speaker 4: entire season in Chuck Clark, who they traded with the

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Speaker 4: Ravens to acquire, who is going to be plugged in

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Speaker 4: as one of their starting safeties. We know historically health

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Speaker 4: does not sustain. We know teams who make dramatic leaps

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Speaker 4: on defense the way the Jets did last year typically

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Speaker 4: gives some of those games back the following season. When

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Speaker 4: I looked at it, I think the Jets protected to

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Speaker 4: be somewhere around the twelfth.

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Speaker 3: Best defense in football.

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Speaker 4: So, okay, Aaron Rodgers can still be you know, hold

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Speaker 4: up his under the bark, and that's still going to

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Speaker 4: be a playoff team. Good defense, better offense should still

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Speaker 4: be nine ten wins. I think that's fair. But again,

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Speaker 4: I think there's a scenario where things don't go south,

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Speaker 4: or things do go south, and look at the offense.

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Speaker 3: Simon mentioned the offensive line.

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Speaker 4: Legitimate concerns here at tackle, where you have McKay Beckton,

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Speaker 4: who's played one game over the last two years, Duane Brown,

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Speaker 4: who's in his late thirties and coming off of an injury.

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Speaker 4: They both want to play left tackle. Neither of them

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Speaker 4: wants to play right tackle. One of them is going

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Speaker 4: to have to Billy Turners behind them. Solid depth tackles

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Speaker 4: that helped, but they wanted to get a tackle year's draft.

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Speaker 4: I know that there's been some indications otherwise. Think it's

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Speaker 4: telling that the day after the draft they signed Billy Turner,

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Speaker 4: which tells you they were going to play on drafting

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Speaker 4: a tackle, and when they didn't have to sign a

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Speaker 4: veteran to fill in there, Elijah Vera Tucker very promising,

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Speaker 4: you know, guard coming off of an injury as well.

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Speaker 4: While line is a concern, get to the receivers. Okay,

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Speaker 4: well you have Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson is great, a

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Speaker 4: super talented player. Was really good last year with Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 4: Can only imagine how good he's going to be with

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Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers. But if there's one problem Garrett Wilson has,

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Speaker 4: it's drops. And if there's one problem Aaron Rodgers has

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Speaker 4: in terms of people on the football field, it's with

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Speaker 4: young receivers who drop passes. It took time for Devonte

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Speaker 4: Adams to develop that rhythm with Rogers that he had

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Speaker 4: later in his career. Took him five years to have

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Speaker 4: a one thousand yard season. So you know, I think

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Speaker 4: Garrett Wilson has super high upside, but I think there's

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Speaker 4: also a chance where he doesn't get off to the

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Speaker 4: right foot with Rogers. They struggle, there's not consistency. And

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Speaker 4: then you look up the other receivers in that receiving corps.

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Speaker 4: You look at Randall Cobb, at Allens. When one or

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Speaker 4: book those guys are on the field. Last year, Aaron

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Speaker 4: Rodgers's QBR dropped by twenty three points. He was twenty

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Speaker 4: three points better without those guys on the football field,

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Speaker 4: which tells me having them there in terms of having

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Speaker 4: some familiarity is good, but they're not great receivers. Aaron

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Speaker 4: Rodgers was better with guys he had no experience with

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Speaker 4: as opposed to those guys. So okay, lead them aside

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Speaker 4: receivers upside, But some questions you go to the running

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Speaker 4: back situation. Reese Hall is coming off with torn acl

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Speaker 4: we know historically there's plenty of running backs where it

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Speaker 4: takes a year for those guys to be the player

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Speaker 4: they were a year ago. So again I see the

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Speaker 4: upside with Reese Hall. I think he can be, you know,

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Speaker 4: legitimately the best running back in football things break right

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Speaker 4: this year. He could also be a guy where it's

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Speaker 4: kind of like JK. Dobbins where he's i know, on

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Speaker 4: IR for a few weeks, he's not healthy, he's getting

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Speaker 4: ten carries a game. That's why I think the move

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Speaker 4: we've heard about today where they're going to bring in

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Speaker 4: Dalvin Cook for a for a meeting is so valuable

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Speaker 4: because they need a guy who the first month, first

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Speaker 4: six weeks of the year can be the guy who

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Speaker 4: is you know, shouldering the majority of the workload, with

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Speaker 4: Bristolt being kind of the one began. As the year

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Speaker 4: goes on, Preese Hal taking over more of the workload.

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Speaker 4: And then on top of all that, guys, here's the

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Speaker 4: part that I think is so fascinating. That schedule for

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Speaker 4: the Jets the first six weeks of the season. I'm

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Speaker 4: going to bring it up. I mean, we're gonna look

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Speaker 4: it up on my computer here on the podcast. The

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Speaker 4: Jets play to begin this year at the Bills, they're

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Speaker 4: at the Cowboys, they host the Patriots, they host the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: they're at the Broncos, and they host the Eagles. Before

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Speaker 4: they're yes, they go three and three, they're in great shape.

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Speaker 3: They go two and four, they go one and five.

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Speaker 4: They get that adversity from the New York media, from

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Speaker 4: their fans of we thought you were going to win

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Speaker 4: a super Bowl and you started one and five. There

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Speaker 4: might be a chance that that sidelines their entire season.

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Speaker 4: That could be it before they even get to their

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Speaker 4: Week seven buy. So I think lots of concerns for

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Speaker 4: the Jets, and plenty of reasons for me to believe

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Speaker 4: I would rather go under nine and a half here.

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Speaker 3: Than go over.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, that's why Chad.

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Speaker 3: Brought me on and said the nice things about Listen.

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Speaker 1: My take, Jets are two and four after those first

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Speaker 1: six games, I've seen bigger. Yeah, And actually they're really

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Speaker 1: good graphic about it the other day, and they had

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Speaker 1: their predictions, like their model showing percentage chance to win

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Speaker 1: these games. Simon, you and I both we've talked about it,

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Speaker 1: even for week one. We're buyers on the Patriots right now.

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Speaker 4: One more thing, did you guys see who the offensive

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Speaker 4: coordinator for the Jets is? Yes, it's Daniel Hackett, the

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Speaker 4: guy Hackett, the guy who Sean Payton came out today

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Speaker 4: and basically buried in a coaching ditch with his comments. Yes,

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Speaker 4: he's the guy who's running the offense for the Jets.

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Speaker 4: That also seems like legitimate concern. And you brought up

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Speaker 4: the Patriots chat and I think Bill O'Brien, the offensive

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Speaker 4: coordinator with New England now is going to be a

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Speaker 4: significant upgrade on Matt Patricia and Joe Jents. Not as big,

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Speaker 4: but almost as make him an upgrade as Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 4: is going to be on Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon, we've talked about that. And I'm skipping around

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Speaker 1: in our in our rundown here. Apologies, Matt Mitchell, But

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Speaker 1: we like the Patriots not just because of Bill O'Brien,

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Speaker 1: but because of their defensive line. Dig In, Simon, tell

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Speaker 1: me why we like the Patriots so much and how

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Speaker 1: we're thinking about them for even Week one against the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Just honestly, it's pretty value based.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: We're one of the bigger shows on Where's the valuet

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Speaker 2: in each division. And last year we talked at nas

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Speaker 2: him about the Jaguars. Right mayre the Jaguars where it's

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Speaker 2: twelve to one, we goave him out eleven, ten to one,

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Speaker 2: nine to one. Then literally before the season kicked off,

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Speaker 2: he gave him out eight to one. It's kind of

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Speaker 2: the same thing of this Patriots team is just left

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Speaker 2: for dead. The public is totally done with this team.

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Speaker 2: Last year. They really disappointed I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: their own fans and just people across the league where

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Speaker 2: the mostique has gone. Now Belichick, it feels like it's

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Speaker 2: really is gone. Where I never thought we would see

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Speaker 2: the day where that Patriots fans would be like, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe as a time for a change. It's like, what,

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Speaker 2: like that's how you just know you're such a spoiled

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Speaker 2: fan base where they can't they still can't see that

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Speaker 2: Bill is still top three defensive line of football. So

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Speaker 2: to me, we have a team that was still really

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Speaker 2: strong defensively last year. They just had to play it

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Speaker 2: out right. They sucked for the first maybe couple weeks defensively.

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Speaker 2: By week eight, Bill had them all exactly where you

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Speaker 2: need to have them at right. They finished really strong.

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Speaker 2: The offense you touched on it. Bill O'Brien is such

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Speaker 2: a huge upgrade. Like this man. You can say whatever

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Speaker 2: you want about him as a gym. He was a

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Speaker 2: train wreck in Houston. Offensively, he was really smart. When

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Speaker 2: you go back and watch that, he always constantly put

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Speaker 2: Watson in the best position to win, Like that was

359
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 2: his whole thing was figure out what his his strengths were,

360
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Speaker 2: and then he really maximized it. I feel the same

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Speaker 2: thing with this team this year. Where do I really

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Speaker 2: think the Patriots are gonna win this division?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 2: Right, I think I don't think any person would there.

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Speaker 2: They're by far the fourth team in this division. Right,

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Speaker 2: I still have the Jets power raider over then Miami's

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Speaker 2: defense and offense is truly light years ahead of them

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Speaker 2: talent wise, Like they just both side the ball are

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Speaker 2: really good. So to me, at plus eight hundred, that's

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Speaker 2: an inflated number just because of public perception and this

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Speaker 2: Jets love, right, the Jets, They've bumped this number up

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Speaker 2: way high. So when I model this out, this should

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Speaker 2: be closer to a five hundred. That means we're getting

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Speaker 2: plus three hundred of free value right now in this

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Speaker 2: Patriots team. That's crazy number. That is a crazy number

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Speaker 2: to think for this division. So to me, it's not

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Speaker 2: that I think, yeah, you gotta go out and gotta

378
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Speaker 2: bet the Patriots. It's more that the Patriots are way

379
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 2: closer to this Jets team and this Miami team than

380
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Speaker 2: people perceives. It's not as far off as people are

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Speaker 2: making out to be. Just because they have Nac at quarterback,

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Speaker 2: they don't have the Aaron Rodgers. They'll two quarterback. And

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Speaker 2: that really is although public really cares about you, Kevn.

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Speaker 2: They walk into a sportsbook to make a bet, are

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Speaker 2: they either gonna bet on Tua or Rodgers? Are they

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Speaker 2: gonna sit there and be like, you know what, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna put this money on Mac Jones. And that's what

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to get you. Now, Look, just don't think

389
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Speaker 2: you're just bet on. You've been on a really smart

390
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Speaker 2: defensive mind in Belichick, with a really good defense that

391
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,399
Speaker 2: should be much better this year with Bill O'Brien. So

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Speaker 2: I'm with Bill here, Like he said it perfectly, Bill

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Speaker 2: O'Brien is a huge upgrade for this Patriots team. So

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Speaker 2: that's what people are gonna give a shit chat in

395
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Speaker 2: mid season when the Patriots are terrible. It's a value

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Speaker 2: based bet. We're just talking they they shouldn't be plus

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Speaker 2: eight hundred. This number is totally inflated. So that's that's

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Speaker 2: definitely those it really pops out this offseason.

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Speaker 3: There's no question.

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Speaker 4: Two things come to mind for me talking about the

401
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Speaker 4: Patriots stand out Number one in terms of Bill O'Brien.

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Speaker 4: I think so when you made the perfect point about

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Speaker 4: how they Bill O'Brien built an offense around his quarterback strengths,

404
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Speaker 4: and that's something the Patriots didn't do with Mac Jones

405
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Speaker 4: last year. They changed the way they ran the football.

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Speaker 4: They went to his own base scheme as opposed to

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Speaker 4: a power based scheme, which a Patriots have done for

408
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Speaker 4: twenty years with success, just because they thought it was

409
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Speaker 4: trendy and frankly was already behind the times when they

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Speaker 4: made the switch. They went out and brought a Mac

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Speaker 4: Jones who was in credible throwing RPOs at Alabama. His

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Speaker 4: video game numbers like average more than eleven yards per attempt,

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Speaker 4: completing more than ninety percent of his passes, and those

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Speaker 4: are easy completions, but those are good. You want easy

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Speaker 4: completions for your offense. And for your quarterback, especially when

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Speaker 4: he's struggling. And I had Ali Connelly who broke this

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Speaker 4: down in his substack on my podcast. Patriots were in

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Speaker 4: three downfield RPOs all season last year. Like it was

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Speaker 4: a staggering just just they ran a couple screens every

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Speaker 4: tagged down to their run game, but they did not

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Speaker 4: make RPOs a focal point of their offense or even

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Speaker 4: a meaningful part of their offense. Bill O'Brien coming from Alabama,

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Speaker 4: where they still run a ton of RPOs, is going

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Speaker 4: to bring that into this offense.

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Speaker 3: It's not gonna be.

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Speaker 4: You're not gonna run thirty of them a game or anything.

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Speaker 4: But hey, here's five easy completions.

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Speaker 3: It gets you on schedule.

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Speaker 4: Keep Mac Jones's continence going and protect him and build

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Speaker 4: up what he does. I think that's just the simplest

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Speaker 4: logical thing to do. And the other thing I want

432
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,719
Speaker 4: to point out is, you know, talking about real results

433
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 4: based analysis and how you feel about a team. Patriots

434
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 4: were eight nine last year and they lost two games

435
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 4: in December that were they've probably had a ninety no

436
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 4: probably one game had like a ninety five percent win expectancy.

437
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 4: The other one probably about a a eighty percent win

438
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 4: expectancy or seventy half percent win expectancy. They lose to

439
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 4: the Raiders a fourth and ten and then get up

440
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 4: a whole drive for a score, and then the Jacobe

441
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 4: Myers thing happened, which is the disaster of all disasters.

442
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: That's not the thirty flips a pack Stanford band nowhere

443
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 2: in side, it's clicked on.

444
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 4: Oh no, incredible.

445
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 2: Taylor Jones takes it in and wins the game for

446
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 2: the Rearers.

447
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 4: And then the Bengals game, they get a fumble against

448
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,719
Speaker 4: the Bengals. They have first and goal inside the two minutes,

449
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 4: inside of two minutes down I believe four, either three

450
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 4: or four, and Rodre Stewinson fumbles and gives the ball

451
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 4: back to the Bengals. So if they win either of

452
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 4: those games, they have a winning record. If they win

453
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 4: both those games, they're in the post season. We're having

454
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 4: an entirely different conversation about the Patriots because of those

455
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: two games that went disastersly at the end. And I know, hey,

456
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 4: it happens, and you don't want to bet on teams

457
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 4: who make a habit of screwing things up in the

458
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 4: final two minutes of games. But we have of enough

459
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 4: bestample with the Patriots and Bill Belichick that I think

460
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 4: they're not going to have those lapses again in twenty

461
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 4: twenty three.

462
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 1: Let me quickly remind people that we've talked about game

463
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 1: Time so often on this show. It's the fastest growing

464
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,880
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465
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Speaker 1: I use it all the time. You guys heard me

466
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 1: talk about how I used it to buy Mariner's tickets

467
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Speaker 1: when I was on vacation with my family. If you're

468
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469
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Speaker 1: this week, or even a concert, game Time has amazing

470
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Speaker 1: last minute deals on tickets to all of these. I'm

471
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 1: checking game Time right now from our Action Network studio

472
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Speaker 1: here in New York City. I can get into the

473
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 1: first Place Super Team New York Liberty twenty seven bucks. Wow,

474
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Speaker 1: all the costs. That's right, Bill, It's exciting to where

475
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 1: you live. Download the game Time app, get out and

476
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Speaker 1: have some fun this week. You deserve it, and you

477
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Speaker 1: can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase.

478
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Speaker 1: Terms apply. Just download the app, enter code favorites for

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Speaker 1: twenty dollars off. Download game Time today last minute tickets low.

480
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: It is price guaranteed bill. We're about to enter the

481
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: NFL season. Your pieces, and I say this with all sincerity,

482
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: I'm not joking around, are so detailed, so in depth.

483
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 1: I know how much work you put into them.

484
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: Too long?

485
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 1: It is, no, They're not too long for me. But

486
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: you know I'm Airudyite and so I'm an author, right,

487
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: I can tolerate long stories. But is there ever a

488
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 1: time where you're like, I cannot do this for another week?

489
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 1: It's week seventeen. You just get sick of football by

490
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 1: the end of the season, because right now we are

491
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: all so excited, we love it so much. We could

492
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: go for five hours talking about every single hot button

493
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: topic in the league, plus the thing that just we

494
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 1: care about as people who are gambling on it. There

495
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 1: ever a point where you get burned out during the season?

496
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 4: Not really, to be honest, Like you know, I think

497
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 4: there's always that concern. I always hear from my wonderful

498
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,199
Speaker 4: editor's at ESPN dot com. Hey, you know, do you

499
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 4: need to take a break, You need to slow this down?

500
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 4: Do you want to not write something today? There's always

501
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 4: something to discuss, and I think football is so fascinating

502
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 4: because we watch it and we have so little of

503
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 4: an idea of what's going on that I think there's

504
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 4: always so much.

505
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 3: Underneath the hood to discuss.

506
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 4: And then of course there's so many different angles to discuss.

507
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 4: There's fantasy, there's gambling, there's you know, analytics, there's there's

508
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 4: all these different ways to talk about football that I

509
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 4: feel like, frankly, I wish I had more time to

510
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 4: write about I wish there was more deep dives.

511
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:43,239
Speaker 3: I could do.

512
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 4: Like you know, there's really in the second half of

513
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 4: the year, as teams sort of fade from the playoff race,

514
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 4: I'll watch them less and less. But there are some

515
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 4: times where that's meaningful. You know, there's times where ill

516
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 4: I'll wish I had time to watch the Texans in

517
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 4: you know, the final few weeks of the years, so

518
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 4: I could sit there and talk about them, or the Browns,

519
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 4: like I didn't really get to sit down until way

520
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 4: after the year talk about Deshan Watson and take a

521
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 4: close look into his struggles because the Browns were not

522
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 4: at the time from what I remember, particularly in the

523
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 4: playoff phrase. So I think, you know that there's really

524
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 4: an element of like I wish I had more time

525
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 4: during the week to discuss stuff, but it's such a

526
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 4: whirlwind that like there's there's there's just there's more more

527
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 4: things to talk about than there are times. So I

528
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 4: don't get burnt out by it very much.

529
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: Now I'm glad to hear that. I want you to

530
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: love with you. I want you to love football the

531
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: way it seems like you love football when you're writing

532
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 1: about football. Speaking of football, Justin Herbert just signed a

533
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: massive new contract. Joe Burrow is up for a new contract,

534
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 1: and any list these are going to be probably top

535
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks. Give me your really, I think so.

536
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 4: You think Burrow and Herbert are in the top four.

537
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: I would say, Mahomes, give.

538
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 3: Me your top four.

539
00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: Chad, talk about this, Mahomes, no question, Josh Allen, I

540
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: liked Burrow at number three, number three. Well, I think

541
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: Simon likes Justin Herbert at number three. Simon correct me

542
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:11,360
Speaker 1: if I'm wrong.

543
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 2: You are wrong, But that's okay.

544
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: And then I would have Herbert at number four, but

545
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 1: I might already be off. Like the list that we

546
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: had we had posted maybe two weeks ago, Simon, to

547
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: tell me your money.

548
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 2: Who exact same? I had Herbert at four.

549
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: You had Burrow at three and Herbert at four.

550
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh you know what I might have had Burrow.

551
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 1: I might have had Burrow at two and Alan at three.

552
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 2: That's what it was.

553
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: That's what it was.

554
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: But here here was our top ten. Matt Mitchell Simon's

555
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: top ten was Stafford Watson, Rogers, Lawrence Jackson, Herts, Herbert Burrow, Alan,

556
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 1: mahomes H Bill. Give me your You don't have to

557
00:26:58,359 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: give me a full top ten, but give me your

558
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: I have.

559
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 3: I have a full top ten for you. Do you

560
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 3: want it? Do you want it? In ten to one

561
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 3: or one to ten, ten to one, ten to one? Okay.

562
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 4: Number ten is to Sean Watson, where I'm willing to

563
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 4: throw out some element of what happened last year. Because

564
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 4: of all the stuff that the Sean Watson had happened

565
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 4: last year, we have more of a sample saying he's

566
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 4: a significantly talented quarterback. Injury is really the biggest concern

567
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 4: for me.

568
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: I tried to tell people, but he's a scumbag. But

569
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 2: he's a good quarterback.

570
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 4: Okay, that's I mean, he's he could certainly qualifies both.

571
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 4: I think we have to see what happens. We have

572
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 4: what happens with Kevin's defan skin that offense this year.

573
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,479
Speaker 4: I think there is that a real question of like

574
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 4: how does the how do those two worlds mild? Because

575
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 4: at the end of the day, like if there's a

576
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 4: problem here, one of these guys is making two hundred

577
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 4: thirty million dollars fully guaranteed.

578
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 3: And one is.

579
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 2: Wow.

580
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 4: So that is what happens when you signed Shaun Watson

581
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 4: to a massive deal, is that you have to build

582
00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 4: the entire organization around him. I have that number nine.

583
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 4: I don't think that came up in your guys' top ten.

584
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 4: I think Dak is number nine for me.

585
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: He's in my top ten bill I had him at

586
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 1: number I had him at seven.

587
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 4: Okay, obviously intersection rates are concern last year, like that's

588
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 4: going to regress towards the mean we have a significant sample.

589
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 4: He's not someone who puts the ball in danger. Don't

590
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 4: love Mike McCarthy as the OC, but I do think

591
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 4: he is going to be just fine. He's limited, doesn't

592
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 4: run the ball as much as he did before the

593
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 4: ankle injury, but to me, I think still a fishing

594
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 4: quarterback and still someone who can be very explosive when

595
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 4: given the opportunity number eight, I have to I have

596
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 4: to a tango Valoa. He was the best quarterback in

597
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 4: football before the injuries last year. First time of the year,

598
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 4: he was incredible. Obviously, having great receivers helps. He's super accurate,

599
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 4: though the injuries are concerned. I think you have to

600
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,239
Speaker 4: project that in when you're thinking about the top ten,

601
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 4: because you don't know what we're going to get from him.

602
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 4: Might get ten games, might get two games, might get

603
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 4: seventeen games. And I think certainly we saw teams take

604
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 4: away the middle of the field.

605
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: This is the year right now.

606
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 4: The Chargers had a game where Ben Sola covered this

607
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 4: for The Ringer, where they just basically broke their rules

608
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 4: and said, Okay, no matter what our safety situation is,

609
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 4: we're taking away the middle of the field. And Dolphins

610
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 4: didn't adjust. So I think it's on Tua and Mike

611
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 4: McDaniel this year to have adjustments for when teams take

612
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 4: away they're in breaking stuff because two is so deadly

613
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 4: throwing over the middle of the field. I have Herbert

614
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 4: at seven to you guys in the top four, and

615
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 4: you know, the question for me is, Okay, what are

616
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 4: you capable of versus what have you done? And for Herbert,

617
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: like he's capable of being the best quarterback in football.

618
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 4: He has has every tool in the bag. He is athletic,

619
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 4: he's smart, he has incredible guts, he's tough, like every

620
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 4: quality you would want in a quarterback justin Herbert has.

621
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 3: But has he done it?

622
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 4: Have you seen this stretch of him where he's been

623
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 4: the best quarterback back in football? And I think there

624
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 4: has not really been the case.

625
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 3: That's so far.

626
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 4: I've seen games from him that game against the Raiders

627
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 4: in Weeks eighteen two years ago, where it was he

628
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: was kidding every fourth down throw for twenty yards, like

629
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 4: that was the best quarterback play I saw that year

630
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 4: before Josh Allen in the in the playoffs against the Chiefs.

631
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 4: But I go back to that Jaguars game last year.

632
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 4: He left two touchdowns on the field in a game

633
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 4: where the Chargers needed to win that game. They were

634
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 4: snapping the ball consistently ten twelve to fifteen seconds in

635
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 4: the second half of that game before they needed to

636
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 4: and some of that played the coaching. I think Joe

637
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 4: Lombardi was not a great coach. I love Kellen Moore

638
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 4: being there, but some of that time. Justin Herbert, I

639
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 4: think he has to master that stuff and be more

640
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 4: consistent for me to have him be a top four quarterback,

641
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 4: even if I know he has the ability and the

642
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 4: tools to pull that off. Number six for the record.

643
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: For the record, I had Herbert at five. I sign

644
00:30:55,640 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 1: it had me four, and Matt Mitchell called my my

645
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: list a deeply unseerious list. And so far you and

646
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: I had dak Into in similar spots, but more people.

647
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 4: Well, Matt may may have some comments about my list

648
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 4: as we get further up here. Number six, I have

649
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson. Where Lamar Jackson, We're going have to see

650
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 4: what he does in a new offense this year. Obviously

651
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 4: there's going to be more expected with him as a thrower.

652
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 4: I think he has the capability to do that. He

653
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 4: was running a pro style offense that Louis Field people forget.

654
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 4: Under Bobie Petrino, he was running. Of course, he got

655
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:31,959
Speaker 4: the running game built into it, but he had a

656
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 4: conventional passing attack. He can read the full field, run

657
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 4: through his progressions. He's not going to be a guy

658
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 4: where he's one and done in the pocket. And of

659
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 4: course he shoulders a significant workload as a runner, and

660
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 4: that matters, That factors in terms of your value as

661
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 4: a quarterback. Really, the only guy I think who shoulders

662
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 4: more of a workload as a runner is later on

663
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 4: this list in Jalen Hurts. So to me, I think

664
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 4: Lamar his values different than other quarterbacks and unique, but

665
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 4: I think he's very valuable. Number five a guy who

666
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 4: I don't know if this guy came up on your list,

667
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 4: and I don't. I can't understand why Trevor Lawrence I.

668
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 2: Had four.

669
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 1: Right now, My list and Bill Barnwell's list are basically

670
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: the same, and I got nothing but ripped for it.

671
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: Well, you guys do both. You guys both worked at

672
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 2: Estpian at one point.

673
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 4: So it's not true. That's true. ESPN wrote this list

674
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 4: for me.

675
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 2: I have to admit it feels that way.

676
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: This is this is based on the first take Rundown.

677
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 4: I got helped out for putting Trevor Lawrence five on

678
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 4: my list. I think Trevor Lawrence, I mean when you talk,

679
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 4: I talked about Justine Herbert. Okay, what has he done

680
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 4: for a long stretch of time that makes me think

681
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 4: he's a top five quarterback? Trevor Lawrence had that stretch

682
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 4: in the second half of last season, let his team

683
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 4: to multiple victories, had like fifteen touchdowns against two picks.

684
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 4: Was super efficient with you know, okay receivers, backup left

685
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 4: tackle for a stretch of that time or backup tackle.

686
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 4: They lost Cake Robinson later on in that season, you know,

687
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: okay receivers. But like every guy who was there had

688
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 4: a career season. Evon Ingram had his best season. Say

689
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 4: Jones did his best season. Christian Kirk had his best season.

690
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 4: Like they had guys who were sort of stretched one

691
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 4: role beyond where I think they should be. Christian Kirk

692
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 4: probably best as the number two was their number one,

693
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 4: Say Jones probably a three? Was there two? Ev An

694
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 4: Ingram a four should be there? Was there three? I

695
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 4: felt like they were. He was the guy in that offense.

696
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,959
Speaker 4: He can make any throw, just like Herbert Ken. I

697
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 4: just think he has a little better track record and

698
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,719
Speaker 4: a little better draft pedigree. This is the guy we

699
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 4: expected to be a franchise quarterback from day one coming

700
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 4: into the NFL, A guy who was ready probably a

701
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 4: year before he was even eligible to enter the NFL.

702
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 4: I think I think people are sleeping on his MVP

703
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: upside this year where he has a weak division, he

704
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 4: gets Calvin Ridley another year in Doug Peterson's offense. I

705
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 4: think Doug Peterson is a great coach.

706
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 3: There.

707
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 4: There's so many ways that could go right with Trevor

708
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 4: Lawrence could have just you know, he competed with Mahomes.

709
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 4: To me, I think he has that kind of upside.

710
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 4: Nobody's talking about him having that kind of upside right now.

711
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 3: What do you guys think you on board?

712
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: Well, listen, chat is I've got him at four just

713
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: to head A Herbert at five, and so I agree

714
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 1: with everything you're saying one hundred percent. You're affirming both

715
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: your genius and line.

716
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 3: That's promising.

717
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 4: I have Jalen Hurts at four. Of course, the run

718
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 4: game factor of factors in here. Shoulder is an incredible

719
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 4: workload on designed runs, not just scrambles. You know, I

720
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 4: feel like he is a player who's made incredible strides.

721
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 4: He was one of the least accurate quarterbacks adjusting for ERA,

722
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 4: in the history of football. As a rookie, he had

723
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 4: like one of the lowest completetion percentages we've ever seen,

724
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 4: and justin forer era, and he was I think number

725
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 4: two in adjusted completetion percentage last year. Like the strides

726
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 4: he's made as much as Josh Allen made strides, Just

727
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts has come even further. Over the course of

728
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 4: his first three seasons. He's been in incredible force. Course,

729
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 4: I mean, having two great receivers has helped the offensive line.

730
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: Staying healthy for the majority of last year helped. I

731
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 4: think it's gonna come bounce back a little.

732
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 3: Bit this year.

733
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 4: I think he might struggle a little bit because of that.

734
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 4: But I mean he's just a great player, and like

735
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 4: you can't count on him being worse this year. He's

736
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 4: He's taken incredible strategy season. If anything, he projected him

737
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 4: to get better. I have, of course, I have my

738
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 4: homes one, no point even talking about that. I have

739
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 4: Alan ahead of Burrow. I think Alan behind Burrow is

740
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 4: recently biased just because of the injury Alan suffered last year,

741
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 4: the elbow injury, where I think he's passer rating dropped

742
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 4: about twenty points before and after Week nine when he

743
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 4: suffered that injury against the Jets. Just I mean, Alan

744
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 4: is a force of nature in a way I think

745
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 4: Burrow is not. And Burrow is incredible. Obviously you want

746
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 4: him there when the game's on the line. He's He's

747
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 4: a winner for a reason. But I think Alan is

748
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 4: more as a runner, and I think Alan, you know,

749
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 4: single handedly propels the Bills forward in a way that

750
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, as good as he is, does not with

751
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 4: the Bengals. He has more help to me, So I

752
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 4: thought Mahomes, Alan Burrow, hurts, Lawrence Lamar, Herbert Tua, Dak Watson.

753
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: Well, listen, you and Simon are spot on on in

754
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 1: the same place about Mahomes and Allen. You had a

755
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: great stat in your column, of which I read every

756
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: word very carefully, all four thousand of them, about Burrow's

757
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 1: yards per completion, I think dropping after that elbow injury,

758
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 1: which even makes it more amazing how the Bills continued

759
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: to play, and that he performed the way he did. Simon,

760
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 1: you maligned my list, and now you know Bill was

761
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: much more of an expert than I am. Do you

762
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: feel like maybe my list is better than you previously thought?

763
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: Do you actually feel like Bill's list is kind of

764
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: a joke.

765
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 2: First, I'll say the Herbert thing. I get where he's

766
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: going from Herbert, but you have to take the same

767
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 2: stance with Dak. Dak is the reason I left Dak

768
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 2: off my top ten was Dak has had seven full

769
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 2: seasons as the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. He has

770
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 2: played in zero NFC Championship games, and every year it's

771
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 2: the coach, it's the defense, it's the offense. There's always

772
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: an excuse for Dak. So I was sick of that.

773
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 2: So that's why I left him out my top ten.

774
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 2: And twer Cooper Rush came in. He went four and one,

775
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 2: he beat the Bengals Giants. I can't hear any more

776
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: excuse for Dak, Like, Dak got you got the guys

777
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 2: around you, like, please do something in your career other

778
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 2: than I get it. He's really good in the regular season.

779
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 2: I just haven't seen it from Dak. My Herbert love

780
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 2: Is Herbert cracked his rips. I think it was Week

781
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 2: two against the Chiefs. He was definitely hurt. And then

782
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 2: you take away Mike Williams, you take away Keenan Allen.

783
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 2: For most that season. Last year, he still willed. That

784
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 2: team was I think their coach and their offensive scheme

785
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 2: was terrible for him. He was still able to get

786
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 2: them to a high seed. So I get where you're

787
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:02,959
Speaker 2: at with Herbert. Right. It is one of those where

788
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 2: it's like I've watched that tape of that Jags game

789
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 2: so many times just because it is really really high

790
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: level QB play Herb the first half it's crazy high level.

791
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 2: You were spot on. He missed so many guys in

792
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 2: that second half. Where that's the fear with Herbert. He

793
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: doesn't have that Joe cool personality, right, He's not this killer.

794
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 2: He's kind of this shy, really nice, quiet guy. So

795
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 2: that's dely a fear with Herbert where it's like he's

796
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 2: got everything else. I don't know if he has an

797
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 2: alpha personality, which I for one hate the alpha male,

798
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 2: like no one wants to deal with the alpha male.

799
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 2: And football, you want that guy at quarterback. You need

800
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 2: like Mahomes watching this quarterback thing, him being in guy's

801
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 2: faces talking shit. What guy on a battlefield doesn't want

802
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: that as their leader, right? You want that guy who's

803
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: like I'm him, Like you're talking on the wrong guy.

804
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 2: So I get you coming from the two one doesn't

805
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: really make sense in the sense of I do think

806
00:38:55,760 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 2: two has a talent, but Tyreek Killer Waddle are so good,

807
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 2: like helps it really does where it's like I I'm

808
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 2: I'm almost there with Tua, Like I'm really he really

809
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 2: is probably number like eleven twelve for me. I just

810
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: had to put Stafford over both him and Dak because Stafford,

811
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: not even two years ago won that Super Bowl and

812
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 2: that was all on Stafford. Like you can go back

813
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: and watch all those games. It was always Stafford rushing attack.

814
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 3: In the Holygue for that playoff game, it.

815
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 2: Was always Stafford in the final couple of minutes stepping up.

816
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: I mean, we people always remember that that game against Tampa.

817
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 2: Tampa came all the way back and Stafford didn't lose

818
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 2: as cool he threw a deep the Cooper Cup got position.

819
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: They won that game. The next game, they're playing the

820
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 2: forty nine ers, Stafford stepped up again and led them

821
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 2: down the field. They won. Same with the Bengals. They

822
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: were losing against the Bengals and that fourth quarter he

823
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: came back and won. So I think the Stafford most

824
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,879
Speaker 2: people leaving them off their top ten. It's just they're

825
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 2: kind of forgetting about the guy. It's kind of being

826
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 2: left for dead because he didn't play all last year.

827
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 4: Really, I do remember Stafford tossing off a punt to

828
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 4: Jaquiski Tart in the NFC Championship game with the fourth

829
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 4: quarter that was fortuitously dropped. But but your point, your

830
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 4: point as well taken. Stafford, you know did come up

831
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 4: with big plays. But I would say Cooper Cup come

832
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 4: up with big plays when that that Buccaneers game. If

833
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 4: you want to see the most incredible route you'll ever

834
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 4: see that first pass Cooper cat catches on that final driver.

835
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 4: He has a cornerback play with outside leverage, saying I

836
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 4: want you inside, I want you getting out of bounce.

837
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 4: He things going inside, breaks the cornerbacks, ancles, cuts back outside,

838
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,479
Speaker 4: catches his past. Stafford makes an incredible throw, like throws

839
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 4: it before he's even made the break. Cup makes the catch.

840
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 4: There's like three guys from him in the sideline and

841
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 4: Cup manages to sneak past one of them and get

842
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 4: out of bounce. It is the most incredible route you

843
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 4: will ever see in a big moment.

844
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 3: So no question.

845
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 4: Stafford I think made plenty of big plays late in

846
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 4: those games and does deserve to have more of a

847
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 4: reputation than he does. I think people are writing him off.

848
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 4: I think people are kind of writing off the Rams

849
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 4: on the whole, and I think there's reasons to write

850
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 4: off the defense, which is a scary uh inexperience on defense,

851
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 4: but I think the offense could be just fine in

852
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 4: twenty three.

853
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: Well, look, we have talked about on this show. If

854
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 1: Stafford is healthy and playing, we do like the rams

855
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 1: over six and a half. We like the value there.

856
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: What I love what you just talked about, Bill and

857
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 1: Simon on Stafford is the details and specificity of that

858
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: route that Cooper Cup ran. That meant that the way

859
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 1: you break it down, even though the defense and the

860
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: DBS were trying to drive Cooper Cup inside and he

861
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 1: faked inside, Matthew Stafford threw it before the break, which

862
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 1: means he had to know that Cooper Cup was going

863
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 1: to fake going inside and then go back outside. The

864
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 1: timing on that had to be perfect. And I don't

865
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: know this for a fact that maybe either of you

866
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: do from watching the film. Do you think that was

867
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: an improv by Cooper Cup or do you think that

868
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: it was the design fake and Matthew Stafford and he

869
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 1: were on the same page when they got to the

870
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 1: line of scrimmage.

871
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 4: I think once stafford'saw the coverage, he knew he was

872
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 4: going to make that throw, and he was going to

873
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 4: try to make the throw either way, and I think

874
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 4: he knew. I think when they got to line of scrimmage,

875
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 4: is Cup new like, given this game situation, you know

876
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 4: they're going to play you outside leverage, you know, if

877
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 4: they don't want get a get out of bounce. I

878
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 4: think they gave Cup the space within the route concept

879
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 4: to Hals space to work like you could work in

880
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 4: downs are out of bounce. And then I think you know,

881
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 4: Stafford knew Cup was going to fake going going you know,

882
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 4: towards the inside. That's where the space and the coverage was,

883
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 4: even knowing he was in the in reality going to

884
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 4: end up going outside.

885
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 3: So I think it's a combination of both those things.

886
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 2: Now, Bill made a great point too, That's just that's

887
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: probably the greatest wide receiver season we've seen in our lifetime,

888
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 2: that Cooper Cup run where even in that game, Odell

889
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: Beckham goes down and the Bengals defense you just see

890
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 2: them make an adjustment. They go, you know, we're just

891
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 2: gonna three bracket. We'll go one guy underneath, one guy

892
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 2: to cover the middle, then we'll go one guy over

893
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,439
Speaker 2: the top. He still couldn't be covered. When you watch

894
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 2: that final drive, him and Stafford were just in such

895
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,439
Speaker 2: a rhythm it didn't matter what they're running out there.

896
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: So the biggest thing game we're gonna break down the

897
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 2: Rams a ton coming up this season. The reason I

898
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 2: love them so much for ten to one for their

899
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 2: division is the NFL schedule gave them a gift. But

900
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: they literally start the season in Seattle and then they

901
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 2: come home and play the forty nine Ers, So they

902
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 2: play two of the best teams in their division Week

903
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: one and two, and that's one of those where if

904
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: they beat Seahawks beat forty nine Ers, they've just dropped

905
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: from ten to one, probably the three to one, the

906
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,240
Speaker 2: four to one after just two weeks into the season.

907
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 2: So that's one of those where I think that's how

908
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 2: football is, right Chad. People kind of just look at

909
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 2: last year and the competition. They go, well, yes they

910
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 2: still have Stafford and Cooper Cup, but if you've seen

911
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 2: how terrible their defense is, which is totally fair on paper,

912
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 2: they're very young. How much do we talk about Chad

913
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 2: this league? The difference between the best guy and the

914
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 2: worst guy is literally a hair like That's how incredibly talented.

915
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 2: All these top athletes are, so I'm with them. The

916
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 2: defense will be bad. With the right coach and the

917
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 2: right scheme, you can really cover up a lot of

918
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 2: the weaknesses. So that is definitely what its teams is

919
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 2: rams this year. I'm just I feel like all the

920
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:08,240
Speaker 2: professionals are gonna be all over them. The general public

921
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: will just be talking Seahawks and forty nine Ers, right, Chad,

922
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: That's just what it's going to be like with this

923
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 2: division coming up of this year.

924
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I would point out with the forty nine

925
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 4: Ers a team that I think will be good this

926
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 4: year and makes project to be good this year. There

927
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 4: is definitely a public perception that Kyle Shanahan can just

928
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 4: plug anybody and a quarterback and they're gonna be just fine.

929
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 4: And all you have to do is think passed last

930
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 4: year where they had C. J. Bethard and Nick Moans

931
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 4: a quarterback for stretches and they were not winning football games.

932
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 3: They were entertaining.

933
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 4: They were better than they probably should have been with

934
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 4: those guys at quarterback. But it is not a we

935
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 4: can plug anybody in. So if Rock Party does get hurt,

936
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 4: if he's not ready, like there's no I like Trey Lance,

937
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 4: there's no guarantee the Niners are a twelve win team

938
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 4: over seventeen games. To Trey Lance, there's no guarantee they

939
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 4: are a twelve win game to win team over seventeen

940
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 4: games with Sam Darnold, and I do think having Christian

941
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 4: McCaffrey mitigate some of that, but there's also no guarantee

942
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 4: Christian McCaffrey's going to be healthy for seventeen games after

943
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 4: missing most of the prior two seasons before last year.

944
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 4: So I think there's this perception that the Niners are

945
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 4: locked into like ten elettle wins, that they're like.

946
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 3: A safe team.

947
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 4: They have super high upside, of course, because they could

948
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 4: be one of the best offenses and defenses in football,

949
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 4: but there was a much lower floor that I think

950
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,439
Speaker 4: people are giving them credit for right now, and.

951
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 2: They lost their defensive coordinator. Just there's a lot of

952
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:30,879
Speaker 2: definitely a lot of things where everything looks so good

953
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 2: for forty nine ers. They have a lot of questions

954
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:34,439
Speaker 2: heading into the season, no question.

955
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: Still, before we let you go, the last quarterback on

956
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,320
Speaker 1: my list, number eighty four in the top one hundred,

957
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: Bosa calls the greatest running quarterback in the history of

958
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: the NFL. The quarterback I think is most on a

959
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: trajectory to be like Jalen Hurts when he got aj Brown,

960
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 1: Josh Allen when he got to the Foden Diggs. That

961
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:01,479
Speaker 1: is justin fields of the Chicago Bearers with DJ Moore,

962
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 1: he was number ten on my list purely projection. Oh yeah,

963
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: everyone is sick with me talking about it because they

964
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: think I'm a homer. But we bet the Bears at

965
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:13,919
Speaker 1: one hundred to one. We bet the Bears at eighty

966
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: to one. The fun thing about working at the Action

967
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: Network is last night it's five point thirty. I met

968
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:21,800
Speaker 1: the office. I'm hanging with some people here. We're talking

969
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 1: about why the Bears have a path to win the NFC.

970
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: We made a couple of bets on the Bears and

971
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 1: the Bills to meet in the Super Bowl at one

972
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 1: hundred and forty two to one. Do you have the

973
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 1: same optimism for the Chicago Bears that Simon and I do.

974
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 4: I don't think I have that level of optimism, but

975
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 4: I can see I could see the vision. I can

976
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 4: see where you guys are coming from. The Bears, of course,

977
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 4: last year underplayed their point differential. They were a much

978
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 4: better team than their record indicated.

979
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 3: They were I.

980
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 4: Would say actively trying to lose, at least in terms

981
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 4: of their person decisions. They traded away multiple starters on

982
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 4: defenses the year went along, didn't really replace them justin

983
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 4: fields of course, was bend up for part.

984
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 3: Of the years.

985
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 4: Not have a great offensive line, great receivers, and they've

986
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 4: made upgrades in both those spots, and the division is

987
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 4: wide open. I personally I have the Packers winning the

988
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 4: NFC nor So that's also kind of crazy in some ways,

989
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 4: people are not necessarily thinking the Packers are going to

990
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 4: be the favorites. So with the idea being you can

991
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 4: get in and have a shot. The Bear certainly I

992
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 4: think are more qualified than other teams. My big concern

993
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 4: is just they have no pass rushers. They have a

994
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 4: shocking dearth of pass rushers they have. Last year, Jawan

995
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 4: Brescer led the team in sacks. He had four sacks.

996
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 4: He's the safety, and they didn't bring in anybody up

997
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 4: front who I have a lot of confidence in to

998
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 4: be the five six seven eight sack of year guy.

999
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 4: So to me, I think I'd like this is a

1000
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 4: mad one. More pass rusher or two more pass rushers

1001
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 4: in the next few weeks, whether it's a veteran like

1002
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 4: someone like ad Justin Houston, whether it's someone who gets cut,

1003
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 4: whether they like you know, sort of stumble on somebody

1004
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,399
Speaker 4: and he succeeds, like Charles Harris was with the Lines

1005
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, like I need to see

1006
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 4: a pass rusher before.

1007
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 3: I'm willing to have faith in them. But when you're.

1008
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 4: Getting those kinds of odds, I can understand bedding and saying, Okay,

1009
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 4: there's one hundred to one chance that the NFC North

1010
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 4: goes their way and they stumble on a pass rusher

1011
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 4: and Justin Fields takes a leap. So absolutely, I think

1012
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 4: if you're going to take a shot in any team

1013
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 4: in that range, the Bears would be that team.

1014
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 1: For me, I'm taking that as yes. Clearly it started as.

1015
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 3: A no and shifted to up.

1016
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 1: Maybe you know what, because it's the NFC and you

1017
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:40,919
Speaker 1: have Justin Field question, so you can kind of talk

1018
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 1: yourself into anything.

1019
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 3: No question.

1020
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:45,800
Speaker 4: Absolutely, if you're gonna like, like you know, when I

1021
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 4: was looking at the AFC last night, I was talking

1022
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 4: about it on my podcast, there's thirteen maybe fourteen teams.

1023
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 4: Will you include the Raiders. We are gonna sit here

1024
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 4: right now and think, oh, yeah, we're making the playoffs

1025
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 4: this year, confident they're going to make the playoffs this season?

1026
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 4: Can you really do that in the NFC? Can you

1027
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 4: have you have maybe six teams that feel really good

1028
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 4: about their chances and what that means one team that's

1029
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 4: to get them. That is absolutely you know, like the Bearers,

1030
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 4: I'm sure they're optimistic, but I don't think they're sitting

1031
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 4: here saying, yeah, we're going to be a playoff team

1032
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 4: this year. I think there are going to be teams

1033
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 4: who surprised in the NFC because the competition just is

1034
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 4: not there.

1035
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:26,720
Speaker 1: Wide freaking open. Ash reminder, The Favorites podcast is probably

1036
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,160
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1037
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,759
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1042
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1043
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 3: Writer about mypcial title.

1044
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:53,799
Speaker 1: I know I'm making it up.

1045
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 3: I appreciate it.

1046
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 1: Also host of the Beautifully Logo The Bill Barnwell Podcast.

1047
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on the Favorites. It was glorious.

1048
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 1: We were so happy to have you. For Simon Hunter,

1049
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. This has been the Favorites Podcast,

1050
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,480
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1051
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,600
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1054
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:29,040
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1055
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:40,600
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