1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: JJ zacher reefon what's up everyone. It's JJ zacharyesin in 3 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: this episode ten eighty four of the Late Round Fantasy 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,319 Speaker 1: Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get to 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: the topic today, I just want to send another reminder 6 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 1: that the Late Round Prospect Guide is currently available for 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: pre order and it's better than ever. This year's guide 8 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: includes an outline of what goes into the models, prospect 9 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: profiles for every running back, wide receiver and tight end 10 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: who is at the combine over thirty year two profile 11 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: write ups. There's rankings and more. It'll launch in mid March, 12 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,520 Speaker 1: so pre order it now at fourteen ninety nine because 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: that's going to rise to nineteen ninety nine in just 14 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks. You can find out more over 15 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: on lateround dot com. When I tell people that I 16 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: have prospect models, they often respond with something NFL combine 17 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: related that if I'm inputting a bunch of data, clearly 18 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: the combine is going to play a role and how 19 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: well the model likes a player. But really, there aren't 20 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: a ton of inputs in the models that have to 21 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: deal with the NFL combine sort of speed score matters 22 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 1: for running backs and tight ends, and heightened weight measurements. 23 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: Those are all taken from the NFL combine, So I 24 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: can't say that nothing matters of the combine as it 25 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: relates to the ZAPT model. But I've seen a lot 26 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 1: of discourse on social media this week about what does 27 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: and doesn't matter, how wide receiver forties are irrelevant, how 28 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: this drill or that drill, how none of it really matters, 29 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: at least analytically. I don't totally agree with all of that, 30 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 1: because not only are their direct inputs for me, like height, weight, 31 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: and speed score, but draft capital is the single most 32 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: important input in these ZAT models where these dudes get drafted. 33 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: And even though it's true that NFL teams often overdraft 34 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: wide receivers when they're really, really fast, how players perform 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: in the combine is still more than likely having an 36 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: impact on draft capital when you think of it from perspective. 37 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: Even if our little models in our corner of this 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: football world may not care that much about what happens 39 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: in Indianapolis each year, what's happening in Indie is still 40 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: having a pretty real impact on the landscape overall at 41 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 1: running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Now, as you know, 42 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: the combine just concluded for this year's class, and naturally 43 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: there's a lot to talk about. On today's show, I'm 44 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 1: gonna go through who I think are the biggest winners 45 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: and losers from that combine. Keeping this whole draft capital 46 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 1: impact in mind, let's do it. One of the main 47 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: stories from this year's combine was how fast the wide 48 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: receiver group was. We had eleven wideouts run faster than 49 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: a four four forty. Those one of the highest marks 50 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: that we've seen at the combine dating back to when 51 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: the thing started. This is going to undoubtedly get a 52 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: lot of players pushed up draft boards who probably shouldn't 53 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: be pushed up draft boards. Some of them I don't 54 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: mind as players necessarily, but the vast majority of them 55 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,519 Speaker 1: have serious problems with their production profiles. Like Zacharai branch 56 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: I talked about this at length in The Perspective's episode 57 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: last week. But Branch to me fits the mold of 58 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: the type of wide receiver that's just completely burned teams 59 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: in the past consistently. This is straight from this year's 60 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: Prospect Guide. It says if Branch is selected inside the 61 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: top one hundred, as NFL Mock Draft database currently projects, 62 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: he'll be the eleventh player drafted in that range since 63 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,399 Speaker 1: twenty twenty with a career behind the line target share 64 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: above thirty percent, and the first to exceed forty percent. 65 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: Only two players in that bucket, Wandel Robinson and Luther Burden, 66 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: posted breakout scores above seventy five, which, by the way, 67 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: Zacharia Branch way below that seventy five mark. The others 68 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,839 Speaker 1: Lynn Boden, Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz, Kadarius Tony, Rondel Moore, 69 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: Vaalis Jones, Trey Tucker, and Malachi Corley. I know you 70 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: guys have heard this before. I've said this now multiple 71 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: times in the podcast, but it's important to repeat. Zachariah 72 00:03:56,240 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: Branch's production profile is not very strong. And then there's 73 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: Dion Burks. Burks is getting some love from bigger name 74 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 1: draft experts. An NFL mock Draft database right now has 75 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: him as a potential Day two pick, but he has 76 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: a one point three to five career yards per rout 77 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: run rate that's third worse than the class. Since twenty twenty, 78 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: The ZAP model has twenty four wide receivers who have 79 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: entered the league with career yards per out run rates 80 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,679 Speaker 1: below one point five. The only one to provide any 81 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: meaningful fantasy production is Josh Palmer. Jeff Caldwell tested like 82 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: an absolute beast when his production profile isn't overly special. 83 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: Brenton Thompson, he's kind of interesting as like a tank 84 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: down maybe Calvin Austin type player, and he ran the 85 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: fastest forty of the group that was expected. But even 86 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: his production profile has some flaws. And there's Bryce Lance, 87 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: Trey Lance's brother. He tested really, really well. He ran 88 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 1: a four to three four forty at six three two 89 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: oh four. I guarantee you that people are gonna fall 90 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 1: in love with him. They're gonna that Christian Watson comp 91 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: on him and go after him in rookie drafts, and 92 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 1: look for any of these guys. I see the vision. 93 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: I see the vision with Bryce Lance. I don't think 94 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: they're autobus. I'm just telling you that a lot more 95 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: marks don't favor them than do favor them. For Lance, 96 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: he broke out very late, to the point where he 97 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: doesn't even have a breakout score in the model, and 98 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: he's gonna be over twenty four and a half years 99 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: old at draft time. That's a clear red flag, even 100 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: if that upside case is evident. There's a lot of 101 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: that in this year's class. I allude to this on 102 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 1: the wide receiver prospects who produce like studs episode, but 103 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,479 Speaker 1: I do think we're bound to see one or two 104 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: of these guys really buck some trends this year, just 105 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: because of the sheer number of wide receivers in this 106 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: class who are fine but not special. Fine prospects will 107 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: slip through the cracks. I'm talking about fine analytically, and 108 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: sometimes every once in a while athleticism will translate. So 109 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be shocked to some like Bryce Lance 110 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: makes a legit impact in the NFL. It's just that 111 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: over the long run, if you generally fade the uber 112 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 1: athletes who didn't produce in college, you're gonna win out. 113 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 1: And when I say producing college, I mean good age 114 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 1: adjusted production, and there's a lot of that in this 115 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: year's class. The combine really showed that we have some 116 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: really good athletes, but the production profiles they're not amazing. Nevertheless, 117 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: all those guys that I just mentioned they were winners. 118 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: I'd expect better draft Capital. Now that the combine is over, 119 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love was already far and away the best running 120 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: back in this year's class, and nothing from the combine 121 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 1: remotely changed that. I've had a lot of people ask 122 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 1: me if he's better than Bejon Robinson or Jamior Gibbs 123 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: or Ashen Gente as a prospect, if the Zap model 124 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: likes him more or less, And the answer is that 125 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: the Zap Model still likes him less. But as I've discussed, 126 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: it really doesn't matter. He's still an incredibly great prospect, 127 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: and his comps they are just stud after stud after stud. 128 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: I really don't want people to get hung up on 129 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: the fact that he's gonna likely be an elite producer 130 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: as opposed to a legendary performer. These are tags within 131 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: the Zap model. That's just a quick and dirty label 132 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: to help us wrap our heads around the scores. To me, 133 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: he's a fantastic prospect, and his four to three six 134 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: forty at two hundred and twelve pounds, which gave him 135 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: a one hundred and seventeen speed score, that just cemented 136 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: that the model just has a decent amount of weight 137 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: for the receiving metrics, and his receiving numbers in college, 138 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: they were great, not excellent. Love is the rookie one 139 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: oh one in all formats. I actually don't think it's 140 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: very close when you consider the hit rates for these 141 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: early first round running backs and the talent and size 142 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: profile that he's bringing to the table, and with so 143 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: many running backs not even running the forty at the 144 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: combine this year, and with the position just being super 145 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: thin overall, Jeremiah Love is a clear, clear winner stemming 146 00:07:55,720 --> 00:08:00,040 Speaker 1: from the combine. Now, like I just talked about this 147 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: running back class, it hasn't had this obvious RB two 148 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: in it. I talked about Emmett Johnson possibly being that 149 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: guy because of his great receiving profile. I'll talk about 150 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: him in just a second. But the running back who 151 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: probably saw his stock rise most, who someone now places 152 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: the RB two in this class was Mike Washington out 153 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: of Arkansas. Now, Washington had a minor red flag and 154 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt within the ZAP model, 155 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: but overall the production profile could be worse. He had 156 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: a best season reception share above twelve percent. His best 157 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: season in adjusted yards per team play was one point 158 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: eighty seven. That was fifth best in the class. Maybe 159 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: he's a little bit older, but he won't be twenty 160 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: three until the summer. I'm not even that concerned about age. Meanwhile, 161 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: his size is good. He's six foot one, two hundred 162 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 1: and twenty three pounds, and at that size he ran 163 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: a four to three three point forty at the combine. 164 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: That is absurd. That generated the second best speed score 165 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: in ZAP model history, trailing Onlykeith Marshall, and he barely 166 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: trailed Marshall. Speed scores an input in the ZAP model. 167 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: So Washington's great speed score gave him a little bit 168 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: of a bump to his overall ZAPP score. But I 169 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: think it's unbelievably important to know that it doesn't just 170 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 1: completely change his outlook. In fact, if he ran a 171 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: four to four to three instead of a four to 172 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: three three without any change in draft capital, his ZAP 173 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: score would barely change at all. What I think happened 174 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: with Washington, though, is what I said at the top. 175 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: Even at running back, a showing like that can improve 176 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: a player's draft stock. It will improve it, especially when 177 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 1: there's no clearcut RB two in this draft class. Washington 178 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: has a pretty good profile. Now, I don't think it's elite, 179 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: but I think it's good enough to the point where 180 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:45,839 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked if he goes Day two in 181 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: the draft, and in this running back class where it's 182 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: pretty weak after Jeremiah Love, that matters a lot. Now, 183 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,599 Speaker 1: speaking of Emmett Johnson, let's talk about him. Something that 184 00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: we all need to keep in mind is that these days, 185 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: when players tested the combine, in my opinion, it's for 186 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: one of two reasons. Number One, they're not locked into 187 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: a particular draft spot, and they want to prove their worth, 188 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: even if they're not as athletic as they probably should be. 189 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: I'm talking like day three picks who want to prove 190 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: that they can be Day two guys or undrafted players 191 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: who just want to get drafted. They want to show 192 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: why they should be drafted, so they test. And then 193 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: number two, they test because they just know they're athletic. 194 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love did this. He was gonna go high no 195 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: matter what, but he saw an opportunity to just lock 196 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: that in, whereas other players often don't want to risk that. 197 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: What that means is that we're moving more and more 198 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 1: to a sample of players who are just generally athletic 199 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: because the players who aren't athletic are waiting for their 200 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 1: pro days to test. Now, with all that being said, 201 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: Emmett Johnson posted the worst speed score in the class 202 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 1: at ninety three point four, which honestly wasn't a huge 203 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: surprise if you watch him play. He's not a long 204 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: speed guy. Actually, his ten yard split was more middle 205 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: of the road in this class. That just plays into 206 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: the long speed idea even more. Now. I'm not overly 207 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: concerned about that speed score. We've seen this pass catching 208 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: archetype not bring the craziest speed scores in the past. 209 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: The problem for Johnson, in my opinion, was that he 210 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: decided to do the three cone and he was the 211 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: only running back to do it, and it resulted in 212 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: like a twenty fifth percentile rate. I'm at the point 213 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: with Emmett Johnson where I think he needs to find 214 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: a very specific landing spot in order to thrive in 215 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: fantasy football as a three down back. His top comps 216 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: in the model are Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, and James White. 217 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,199 Speaker 1: All of them had their moments, and I think Johnson 218 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,679 Speaker 1: can have his too, But to be a kyn Williams type, 219 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: he needs to find a team that's going to just 220 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: fall in love with him the way the Rams did 221 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 1: with Williams. And maybe there's like an Aaron Jones like 222 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: outcome here too. But all of these situations just tells 223 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 1: you that we need some nuance when evaluating Johnson and 224 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: his transition the NFL. Overall, it was an l for 225 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: him at this year's combine, even within this below average 226 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: running back class. Jeremy Bernard continues to be a very 227 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: tough prospect for me during this draft cycle. I know 228 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: a lot of analytical models they're not gonna like him. 229 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: He had a career one point nine yards per out 230 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:22,359 Speaker 1: run rate and typically Day two wide receivers have underperformed 231 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 1: versus draft capital expectation by almost two PPR points per 232 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: game when they've been under that two point zero mark. 233 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: But the ZAP model looks at versatility too, and Bernard 234 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: had that. He got rushing work. And I've said this 235 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: before in the show, but Bernard played in Washington before 236 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: going to Alabama. He was on that team with Jalen Polk, 237 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: Jayleen McMillan, Romadunze, and Denzel Boston, and he was able 238 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: to see a lot more production in that offense than 239 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 1: Boston did. Now, they are different types of wide receivers, 240 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: but I still think that's noteworthy. Bernard ran a solid 241 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: forty at two hundred and six pounds, and then he 242 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: went out hit the best three cone of any player 243 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 1: at the combine. That fits his profile pretty well. He's quick, 244 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: he's a good yards after the catch guy. He's got 245 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: the right build for that kind of thing, that kind 246 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: of role. I do think that we could be looking 247 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: at a Paris Campbell type prospect, though that's the fear 248 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: that's in his range of outcomes. In fact, so many 249 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: of his comps in the ZAP model consists of bus unfortunately, 250 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 1: but even if the analytics community is more out than 251 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: in with Bernard, I'm still kind of intrigued, especially after 252 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: this good combine. I thought ted Hurst was another winner 253 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: at this year's Combine. I've let it be known that 254 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 1: I don't think he has the greatest production profile in 255 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 1: the world, especially when adjusted for strength of schedule he 256 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: played at Georgia State. His breakout score at ranks in 257 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: the fifty fourth percentile. That's good, it's not great. His 258 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: best season in yards per team pass attempts was only 259 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: two point one four, But there's definitely some intrigue with 260 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: this archetype. It's often a go big or go home archetype. 261 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: It's a high variance one and post combine. According to 262 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: the Zapp model, his third best comp is Nico Collins. 263 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: Now that's not even considering the fact that he had 264 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: a ninety fifth percentile speed score while having the best 265 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: broad jump in the class. Considering herst is coming from 266 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: a smaller program at Georgia State, having a good combine 267 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: was so important, and in my opinion, he had a 268 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: great one. Carnal Tate was listed at six three, one 269 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: hundred and ninety five pounds in college. At the combine, 270 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: he came in at six foot two, one hundred and 271 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: ninety two pounds. It's not significant, but it is a 272 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: little bit smaller than what we initially thought. That wasn't 273 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: the problem for Tait though. The bigger issue was he's 274 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: a vertical threat who ran a four to five three forty. 275 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: Now after that forty, there's a tweet that came out 276 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: from Adam Schefter and it said, quote Ohio state wide 277 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: receiver Carnel Tate, a potential top ten pick, was timed 278 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: by several NFL executives and gms on Saturday with a 279 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: forty time in the range of four four five to 280 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: four four seven seconds. Although the comp buying registers official times, 281 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: teams always conduct their own timing, and those measurements with 282 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: some teams were lower than his clocks four or five 283 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: to two, which actually was a four or five to three. 284 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: What I found funny about that was number one, there 285 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: seemed to be a little bit of damage control going on, 286 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: Let's be honest, but number two. Within the ZAP model 287 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: Pro Day numbers, they're adjusted by point zero five. We 288 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: add that to the forty time because often we'll get 289 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: faster times at pro days, a little home cooking. And 290 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: what's funny is that if you make those adjustments to Tait, 291 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: you get a pretty similar forty as his clock time. Now, look, 292 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: this change is absolutely nothing in the ZAP model for Tait. 293 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: Kind of I mean, there is a chance that Tait 294 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: now goes lower in the NFL draft because of this. Honestly, 295 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: I'm not sure why he even ran if he was 296 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: in this vicinity for the forty, since he was already 297 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: likely to be a high end pick. But regardless, if 298 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: he falls a few spots in the draft because of this. 299 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 1: Number one, I think that's silly, but number two, it 300 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: could impact his ZAP score just slightly. I'm calling him 301 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: out today because, yes, he was a loser at the Combine, 302 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: but no, I wouldn't really care that deeply about what 303 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: happened there. I think Tait's a good prospect. I don't 304 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: think he's as elite as the other Ohio State guys 305 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: who have come out over last half decade or so, 306 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: but he's a very good prospect. Seth mcgallan was a 307 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: really interesting winner at the Combine this year. For those 308 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: who don't know him, he's a running back who kind 309 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: of went all over the place in college. He started 310 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: in Oklahoma in twenty twenty, was dismissed due to legal 311 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: issues which were eventually dropped, took some time off, went 312 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: to Butler Community College, transferred to Mexico State, where he 313 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: played with the aforementioned Mike Washington, and then he finished 314 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: things off in twenty twenty five in Kentucky. Considering he 315 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: started in twenty twenty, Yes, he's old. He's over twenty 316 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: five years old actually, which is incredibly uncommon for a 317 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: running back and should make us not go crazy with him. 318 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: But I thought he had a good combine. His vertical 319 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: in broad jumps put him in the ninety nine percentile 320 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: on BURS score according to Player Profiler, and he ran 321 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: a four four nine forty at two hundred and fifteen pounds. 322 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 1: That's a great speed score. He was arguably the most 323 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: athletic running back in this class, behind Mike Washington. Again, 324 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 1: I think the age profile here, it's definitely a huge 325 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: red flag. You should not prioritize him early on in 326 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 1: your rookie drafts, but McGowan is definitely something that you 327 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: should keep an eye on. Kenyan Sadik absolutely destroyed the 328 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: combine at tight end. I haven't talked about a ton 329 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: of tight ends because I've been so focused on running 330 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: back and wide receiver. But Brandon Gadoula and I we've 331 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: been working on the modeling side of things for the 332 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: position and we're in a great place with it now. Actually, 333 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,479 Speaker 1: on Wednesday, I'll be sending out a newsletter about that 334 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 1: new tight end model. You can check that out by 335 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: signing up for the free newsletter lateround dot com. But 336 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: Sadiq had a one hundred percentile forty in speed score 337 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 1: while also crushing his jumps I mean he tests is 338 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: basically the best tight end athlete, at least one of 339 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 1: them in combine history, and I would imagine that his 340 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: draft capital is going to rise as a result of that. 341 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: Sadik looks good in the tight end model. If he 342 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 1: goes top ten, he'll have a real shot to land 343 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: in that legendary performer category. But right now he's just 344 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 1: an elite producer. His production profile has gotten some heat 345 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: and it's not flawless, but the model doesn't see it 346 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,719 Speaker 1: as terrible either. Now, another tight end the model really 347 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: likes is Eli Stowers, and this isn't even influenced by 348 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: late round coo David Kitchen, who's a big Vandy fan. 349 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 1: Stowers was six four two and thirty nine pounds of 350 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 1: the combine and he ran a four to five one 351 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: forty that gave him a ninety fifth percentile speed score, 352 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: and then he showed off a freaking forty five and 353 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: a half inch vertical by far the best of the combine. 354 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 1: Breakout score is one of the inputs in the tight 355 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: end model too, not just the wide receiver one, and 356 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 1: it's based on receiving yards per team pass attempt, and 357 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 1: Stowurs score is one of the best in the class, 358 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 1: and it's actually better than Sadik's. There's a lot to 359 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: like about his profile. Those two tight ends, they look 360 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: like the clear best two according to the model. They 361 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: both slayed the combine. The final player I want to 362 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: talk about today is Jenaium Price. Now there's still some 363 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: chance that Price ends up as my RB two in 364 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 1: this class if he gets the draft capital and if 365 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 1: no other player in this class gets that capital outside 366 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: of Jeremiah Love. But there's very little chance that I'm 367 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: gonna be high on him, that I'm gonna like Jenireum 368 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: Price more than the market. There's so much missing from 369 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: his production profile because he played with Jeremiah Love, and 370 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: I get that. I talked through that in the Prospect 371 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: Guide at length. But here's the thing. If we're gonna 372 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: make excuses for Price, reasonable excuses, we need to fall 373 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: back on something objective and tangible to feel good about 374 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: a strong investment. And the combine did Price no favors. 375 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: In my opinion. He was listening at five eleven two 376 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: hundred and nine pounds in college. At the combine. He 377 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: came in at five eleven two hundred and three pounds. 378 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: That's not nothing. When players are lighter than expected, you 379 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: hope they run a faster forty than you expect. You 380 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: I hope that's the reason. But Price had an incredibly 381 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 1: normal four four nine that resulted in an incredibly normal 382 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: ninety nine point nine speed score. He had the second 383 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: best explosive run rate in this class across his career, 384 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 1: that's according to PFF data, but that speed didn't necessarily 385 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 1: match up with his speed score. I'm just concerned about 386 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: this profile. I think it's really reasonable to be concerned. 387 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: You have arguably the worst production profile and this entire 388 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 1: draft class, and it's for a player who tested as 389 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: just an above average athlete. There's a lot of projecting 390 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: that has to go on here, and maybe that ends 391 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 1: up working out. Maybe every single excuse ends up being 392 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: totally valid. But to me, Price is going to have 393 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: to find the perfect landing spot for me to get excited. Now, 394 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 1: there were a lot of other players of the combine 395 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 1: this year. I could have talked about a lot of 396 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,439 Speaker 1: different guys, like, for instance, I think Skyler Bell had 397 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:01,199 Speaker 1: a great combine. McKay lemon apparently had bad interviews. But 398 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: I wanted to shout out who I think deserved to 399 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: be shouted out the most, and now we just have 400 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: to wait for these Pro Day numbers to come rolling in. 401 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of 402 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,719 Speaker 1: you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late 403 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestwarching for 404 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow 405 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. 406 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be talking about some broader 407 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: combine takeaways in the Late Round show this week over 408 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 1: on YouTube. That'll be on Wednesday at noon Eastern YouTube 409 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF and then it's a mailbag week, 410 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 1: so i'll have that on Friday. I'll talk to you 411 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 1: guys then