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Speaker 1: Let's get to us. She's chat our guest for the

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Speaker 1: half hour. She is founder also the CEO at Crystal.

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Speaker 1: He joins from Singapore. Thanks for being with us. We're

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Speaker 1: still trying to kind of look at the fallout from

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Speaker 1: this employment report. We've talked about the overall job growth.

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Speaker 1: Wage growth was also much above forecast, so they're obviously

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Speaker 1: inflationary pressures building on that front. We're going to get

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Speaker 1: the CPI data this week. We also have from the

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Speaker 1: Chinese perspective, a lot of inflation numbers we're going to

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Speaker 1: be sorting through midweek. Are we near peak inflation right now?

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Speaker 1: Or do you think we have a while to go?

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Speaker 1: But it looks like we have a while to go,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of data is going to come out

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Speaker 1: this weekend next that will give us some indicators. But

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Speaker 1: even if the data is let's say, a good wollatial

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Speaker 1: on either side, and just like you have the non

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Speaker 1: Bompado's much much above expectations, I still think the Fed

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Speaker 1: is on its course to achieve close to a four

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Speaker 1: per cent bind of the year. So certified BP seems

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Speaker 1: like a done deal. Inflation does not seem to be

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Speaker 1: well under control. Yes, you will have the base effect

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Speaker 1: coming in, you will have certain energy items probably tapering

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Speaker 1: a bit in terms of inflation. But I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're out of the words yet. Do you have a

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Speaker 1: sense of about when we might be out of the woods?

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Speaker 1: When do you think inflation might peak? Where do you

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Speaker 1: see that funds right settling? So I think that the

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Speaker 1: right course of action or what the FED is probably thinking.

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Speaker 1: And this is a guess. What make is that as

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Speaker 1: you have a few rate hikes or certified PP coming in,

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Speaker 1: it takes a quarter or two for the effects to

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Speaker 1: seep in. So I think when you see the Q

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Speaker 1: three results coming in, when you see the base effect

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Speaker 1: coming in, it's likely to be Q four and that's

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Speaker 1: when you could see a solid sign of inflation tapering.

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Speaker 1: And that's the only way you would have a FED

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Speaker 1: slowing down the pace of hikes. So I would say

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Speaker 1: that seventy five fifty is what the FED may be

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Speaker 1: thinking to achieve a four percent rather than seventy five

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Speaker 1: centive and go about bob Board. And yet we have

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Speaker 1: this inversion in the treasury curve which would imply that

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Speaker 1: we're dealing with an impending recession. How do you square

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Speaker 1: the two Clearly the bond market is saying that the

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Speaker 1: FED is going to go overboard because they are predicting

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Speaker 1: that FED is likely to not have inflation under control

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Speaker 1: and hit the brakes very hard. So while there is

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Speaker 1: a segment of the market at least the equities market

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Speaker 1: is looking at the Goldilocks is back kind of scenario

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Speaker 1: because you think that FED is engineering a good soft landing.

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Speaker 1: But there is the bond market saying that, no, the

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Speaker 1: FED has it wrong. Neither do they health control over inflation,

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Speaker 1: and if they do manage to get some control over it,

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Speaker 1: recession will be staring in our face. So they're clearly

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Speaker 1: sending up very different message than the equities. All right,

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Speaker 1: So where do you put money to work in this environment?

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Speaker 1: Is there anything out there that's flashing a bye for

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Speaker 1: you right now? So clearly short term bonds. We know

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Speaker 1: that the rate is likely to be somewhere in the

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Speaker 1: three and after four percent by the end of this year,

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Speaker 1: and that's probably likely to happen, So so short term

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Speaker 1: bonds is the safest play to go for. But otherwise

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Speaker 1: on that also you still need to keep an exposure

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Speaker 1: to commodities, maybe lower than before, but definitely need to

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Speaker 1: be in as an inflation hedge, and she Sho want

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Speaker 1: to turn our attention now to China and particularly that

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Speaker 1: very impressive trade data we head out over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Exports growing eight hundred one billion dollar trade surplus. A

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Speaker 1: lot of hyperens though in China. How sustainable does this

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Speaker 1: look to you? So we have big advocators of value

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Speaker 1: coming out of China in terms of investing in their

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Speaker 1: great markets there. Having said that, the data that has

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Speaker 1: come out it is quite positive on the on the

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Speaker 1: export side, and on imports it's a bit lower. It's

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Speaker 1: just a signal of front loading of orders given the

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Speaker 1: COVID related lockdowns that we're seeing there. But clearly there

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Speaker 1: is a positivity to the economy that could come out

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Speaker 1: after the October Congress that happens there. However, there is

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Speaker 1: the geopolitical risks that is overshadowing it. There is the

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Speaker 1: whole mortgage related cloud that is also over there. But

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Speaker 1: we think that for October you would see or you

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Speaker 1: should see policy actions that would give a very positive

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Speaker 1: momentum to the economy. So what are you singing then

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Speaker 1: or predicting in the way of stimulus. So it's tough

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Speaker 1: to say what exactly do they come out with, because

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Speaker 1: they have kind of underwhelmed from the market expectations. But

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Speaker 1: clearly a stimulus that leads to clearing of the clouds

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Speaker 1: on the mortgage crisis and showing more easy stands is

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Speaker 1: something that may be needed and that's what the market

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Speaker 1: would look for. But as the uncertainty goes away, you

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Speaker 1: would see that the focus will come on valuations and

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Speaker 1: from a value perspective, it would look very attractive. So

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Speaker 1: where do you put money to work? In China? Are

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Speaker 1: there any particular sectors or stocks that look appealing to

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Speaker 1: you at the moment. So we'll go with the broad

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Speaker 1: index names, you know, the China ashes, rather than specific

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Speaker 1: in tech or so. Of course avoiding property is prudent,

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Speaker 1: but going with the broad index names is what we

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Speaker 1: it would typically stick to. So much of the conversation

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Speaker 1: has been around technology as well at Taiwan, the semiconductor industry.

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Speaker 1: That's also a part of the South Korea story. Would

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Speaker 1: you be tempted to put money away from China in

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Speaker 1: certain pockets of the a pack that had to deal

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Speaker 1: with technology, particularly the semiconductors, rather than some of the

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Speaker 1: hardware names. It's definitely tempting, but we don't know whether

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Speaker 1: this is going to be just a short term trend

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Speaker 1: or a short term nijor reaction in the technology space.

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Speaker 1: We still think that the U s pictech is well

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Speaker 1: positioned despite all the rate hikes, and that's where I

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Speaker 1: think buying going dips is likely to continue. So would

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Speaker 1: rather go safe that we have clarity on the monetary

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Speaker 1: policy actions and inflation. We have, of course seen some

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Speaker 1: fairly active Chinese military drills around Taiwan following the visit

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Speaker 1: of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. How does the balance of

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Speaker 1: excuse me, risks here look to you? Is it? Are

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Speaker 1: there any risks for markets for growth or does this

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Speaker 1: just look like domestic political cyber rattling. No, there's definitely

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Speaker 1: geopolitical risk that one has to keep in mind. But

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Speaker 1: given the priorities that the Chinese government would have, I

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Speaker 1: would think that the importance to these should be lowered.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't comment on any any political moves that could

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Speaker 1: happen at per se, but hoping that whatever is the

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Speaker 1: impact of this is limited to certain import items or

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Speaker 1: certain export items from Taiwan and stays there. The domestic

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Speaker 1: story in China has always been I think a concern

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Speaker 1: for people that play the equity market on the mainland,

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Speaker 1: I mean very soft kind of consumer participation. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: that the difficulty with the property market is being a

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Speaker 1: contributor to that fact. Are you sensing a turn in

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Speaker 1: in consumer sentiment or at least consumer behavior in China. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the domestic demand definitely has taken a double blow, both

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Speaker 1: in terms of property as well as coordulated effects. And

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Speaker 1: as the policy gets a bit easier on the COVID

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Speaker 1: side as well as any physical stimulus comes helping the

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Speaker 1: property sector, that's where we think the sentiment could improve,

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Speaker 1: but we're still at least three to four months away

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Speaker 1: from that happening very quickly. Is she short's your cash

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Speaker 1: allocation like at the moment? So instead of cash, we

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Speaker 1: prefer holding short term in western grade bonds because that's

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Speaker 1: going to give you a lot more return banko back

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Speaker 1: than anything else. Alright, as she ship Chanda, founder and

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Speaker 1: CEO at Crystal, Thanks so much for joining us here

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak. Asion