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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Every pitch is your pitch, The Greatest Show on dirt

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Speaker 3: deep to left field way back then, God.

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Speaker 1: Show. Now they can add college baseball to their trophy case.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm Mike

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Speaker 1: Calabrey's and this is our College World Series special as

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Speaker 1: we head to the cavernous confines of Charles Schwab Field

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Speaker 1: in Omaha, Nebraska. That's going to have a major impact

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Speaker 1: on some of these teams that have been living and

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Speaker 1: dying by the long ball. We are down to eight

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Speaker 1: here in college baseball, so we're gonna run through all

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Speaker 1: the matchups in Bracket one. Bracket two, that of course

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Speaker 1: means wake Forest taken on Stanford, LSU, Tennessee TCU playing

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Speaker 1: the Cinderella of the NCAA Tournament for baseball, that is

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Speaker 1: Oral Roberts and Virginia against Florida in a number two

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Speaker 1: verse number seven matchup. That's incredibly interesting, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to bring in the top ace, top of our lineup,

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Speaker 1: top of our bullpen, top of our starting pitching rotation.

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Speaker 1: However you want to fit into the lineup here, Colin,

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Speaker 1: you did such a great job for us. In the

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Speaker 1: last episode, to quote Leonardo DiCaprio from The Wolf Wall Street,

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Speaker 1: you were handing out fun coupons in the form of

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Speaker 1: winning bets. You were on Oral Roberts, who won twenty

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Speaker 1: three of twenty four. Let me get started with this.

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Speaker 1: How nervous were you when they blew that huge lead

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Speaker 1: to Oregon in game one? Did you lose any faith

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Speaker 1: or were you just with the Golden Eagles the whole way.

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Speaker 3: Listen, when you actually play sports, especially something like baseball,

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Speaker 3: and you get on a huge streak, whether that's you

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Speaker 3: at the plate or whether that's your team in a

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Speaker 3: winning streak, and you lose an a to oho lead

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Speaker 3: and you lose a game like that, you either have

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Speaker 3: the chance to respond and then go out and win

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Speaker 3: the whole day thing, or you have a chance to fold.

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Speaker 3: And I really thought in game two that Oral Roberts

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Speaker 3: was going to fold.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're.

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Speaker 3: Catching balls on the outfield fence and dropping them. We're

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Speaker 3: trying to give the game away that in all actuality.

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Speaker 3: You know, when we came on this podcast last week,

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Speaker 3: I said, I've got Oral Roberts minus two hundred, minus

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Speaker 3: point eighty and all these games. I watched all three games.

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Speaker 3: They were better than organ They were flat out better

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Speaker 3: in a hostile environment. They have the better pitching staff,

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Speaker 3: they have timely hitting, but they looked like a deer

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Speaker 3: in the headlights with a rowdy, pale non town. The

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Speaker 3: Eugene Ducks all over them all weekend. So I'm glad

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Speaker 3: that they pulled it out, and I'm glad they cash

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Speaker 3: for the pod. They move on to face TCU, where

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Speaker 3: we took a future on them on the podcast last week,

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Speaker 3: so it's kind of played out perfectly there. But those

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Speaker 3: two were definitely Cinderella when you look at these eight teams.

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Speaker 1: Just a programming note for an audience. You're listening here

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Speaker 1: to the Big Bets on Campus podcast brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM, but we are going to shift over

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast next week. As we detailed

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Speaker 1: the National Championship Final, the best of three between the

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Speaker 1: winners of Bracket one and Bracket two. So let's hop in.

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Speaker 1: Let's start at the top of the board. Wake Forest is,

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Speaker 1: you know, continuing their dream season. They're back in the

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Speaker 1: College World Series with a chance to win. Their plus

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Speaker 1: two to seventy five in the futures, and they could

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Speaker 1: become the first number one overall seed to win since

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety nine, the very first year of this current format,

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Speaker 1: when the Miami Hurricanes won the whole thing top to bottom.

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Speaker 1: They can really hit. Six players in the Demon Deacons

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Speaker 1: bat over three hundred and another one bats two ninety nine.

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Speaker 1: They've three All ACC first team pitchers, which is just absurd.

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Speaker 1: Josh Hartle, great cutter, that's what I noticed, you know,

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Speaker 1: watching him, and some of the highlights from this year.

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Speaker 1: Sean Sullivan, the Northwestern transfer, was a great guest get

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Speaker 1: for them as a lefty, has an interesting arm angle

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Speaker 1: as well. And then of course the number one guy

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Speaker 1: in the rotation, Reet Louder. He's been phenomenal, two time

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Speaker 1: ACC Pitcher of the Year fifteen and of this year

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Speaker 1: era of one point nine to two. We talked a

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Speaker 1: little bit about the curse of being the number one

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Speaker 1: overall seed. They're able to get out of their you know,

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Speaker 1: super regional now they come into Omaha. Is the pressure

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Speaker 1: off a little bit in terms of not no longer

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Speaker 1: having to play in front of their home crowd, no

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Speaker 1: longer carrying the expectations of this is the dream season

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Speaker 1: you have to at least make it to Omaha not

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Speaker 1: to be considered a bus Is there any kind of

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Speaker 1: psychological advantage now that Wake forest lands and also draws

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Speaker 1: a Stanford team that Let's be honest, they were lucky

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Speaker 1: to sneak past Texas in Palo Alto, you know, winning

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Speaker 1: with that kind of weird blue pop fly game winner.

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Speaker 1: That was a heartbreaker if you're a Longhorns fan, and

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Speaker 1: obviously a great moment for Stanford. I believe this is

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Speaker 1: their third straight ticket to the World Series. So what

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts on that first matchup between Wake and Stanford?

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Speaker 3: I mean, like focusing on Stanford Texas. There's a reason

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Speaker 3: why I've been writing about college baseball for years for

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Speaker 3: Action Network, and the number one thing I talk about

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Speaker 3: all the time is fielding percentage. And if you don't

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Speaker 3: think that that matters, go watch the end of Stanford

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Speaker 3: in Texas. It's college baseball. This isn't MLB. There's no

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Speaker 3: such thing as an easy play. There's no such thing

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Speaker 3: as an easy throw from third over to first. I

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Speaker 3: mean again, you know, these are kids that weren't drafted

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Speaker 3: at eighteen years old, They weren't scouted at fifteen years old,

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Speaker 3: so fielding percentage absolutely matters. But when it comes to

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Speaker 3: Wake Forest, I don't think they're feeling anything. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I know that they had the host of the regional,

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Speaker 3: they hosted the super Regional. They're very comfortable at home,

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Speaker 3: thirty and three at home, but they're also sixteen and

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Speaker 3: six on the road this year. And I think a

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Speaker 3: big key element that you and I need to talk

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Speaker 3: about on this podcast with all of these matchups is

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Speaker 3: the park dimensions. TD Ameritrade is huge. It is spacious.

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Speaker 3: It is three seventy five and left and right center.

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Speaker 3: It's got a center field wall at four oh eight.

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Speaker 3: It's got foul poles at three thirty five. There is

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Speaker 3: fifty two feet between home plate and the first row

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Speaker 3: of seats. It is gratuitous and foul territory. So what

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Speaker 3: you're going to see in the market, And as you know,

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Speaker 3: Mikeahju and I are doing this, there's no totals up

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Speaker 3: in the market right now, but we were used to

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Speaker 3: seeing twelve fourteen, a couple sixteen and a halves during supers.

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Speaker 1: That's gone.

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Speaker 3: If you see anything above a ten, it's probably too high.

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Speaker 3: If you see anything below in eight, which you won't

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Speaker 3: then it's probably too low. But for the most part,

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Speaker 3: eight and a half to ten is where most of

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Speaker 3: these fall. Check in on the weather. The wind is

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Speaker 3: going to be below ten miles an hour all for

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Speaker 3: the first week, and then if you check you know

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Speaker 3: the wind direction. That's really important to Omah because it

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Speaker 3: can switch and go left and right. But as far

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Speaker 3: as answering wake Forest, I don't think they feel any

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Speaker 3: pressure whatsoever. They are absolutely dominating only one game, that

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Speaker 3: one game against Alabama. Other than that, almost every game

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Speaker 3: they've had hasn't been decided within twelve runs. They're an

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Speaker 3: absolute machine right now.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of a team that relies on home runs, let's

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Speaker 1: stick in bracket to LSU plus three point eighty to

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Speaker 1: win the whole thing. They were just hitting homers left

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Speaker 1: and right out of their little bandbox down there in

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Speaker 1: baton Rouge against Kentucky they hit seven home runs in

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Speaker 1: two games, score twenty two runs overall. But they come

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Speaker 1: in here with arguably the most dominant pitcher in all

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Speaker 1: of college baseball pull schemes one hundred and eighty eight

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Speaker 1: k in just one hundred and seven innings worth of work.

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Speaker 1: And then the top of their lineup. It's not just

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Speaker 1: the ability to hit the ball out of the park.

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Speaker 1: Dylan Cruz sets the table. He's been four to thirty

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Speaker 1: three at the leadoff, Tommy White slugging seven point fifty,

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Speaker 1: and he's three shy of one hundred RBIs on the season.

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Speaker 1: And then they got four more hitters behind him, all

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Speaker 1: bet in over three hundred. So LSU currently, I would argue,

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Speaker 1: has the best offense and the highest upside of the

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Speaker 1: eight remaining teams. But they have the depth from a

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Speaker 1: pitching rotation, you know, perspective to be able to go

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Speaker 1: three and oh or three in one and punch their

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Speaker 1: ticket to the College World Series Final. No, they don't.

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Speaker 3: And I hate saying that because I love LSU and

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Speaker 3: I love the offense, and Dylan Cruz is going to

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Speaker 3: be the number one pick in the MLB draft, and

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Speaker 3: Paul Skins is going to be taken in the first round,

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Speaker 3: and he is the national College Player of the Year

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Speaker 3: and there's a reason for that. He's going to absolutely

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Speaker 3: dominate a game. The problem with this LSU team is

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Speaker 3: that they're head coach j Johnson is he's just dead

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Speaker 3: set on not allowing anyone to know who the starting

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Speaker 3: pitcher is going to be leading up to the games

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Speaker 3: until an hour before first pitch, you still might not

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Speaker 3: even know if it's going to be Type Floyd or

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Speaker 3: if it's going to be Paul Skins. And that is,

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Speaker 3: you know, a really huge handicap because the biggest bugaboo

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Speaker 3: with this LSU team is their bullpen. Their bullpen gives

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Speaker 3: up a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of runs.

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Speaker 3: This offense. I hate to say anything bad about the

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Speaker 3: offense because there's second the nation and home runs per

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Speaker 3: nine or second slugging second on base, but they're also

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty second in doubles. They don't hit

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Speaker 3: a lot of wallbangers. And when you get to tdamror trade,

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Speaker 3: it is a cat. It is not alex Box Stadium,

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Speaker 3: and you have to be able to hit move runners.

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Speaker 3: Advance runners have a couple sacrifices. You just can't be

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Speaker 3: relying on home runs. And that's where I worry about

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Speaker 3: this LSU team. Although Dylan Cruz, you know he's probably

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Speaker 3: going to get walked. I expect every pitcher in this

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Speaker 3: bracket to be walking him. But when you put out

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Speaker 3: the numbers against Tennessee, it doesn't matter that the number

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Speaker 3: is already inflated in the market right now. I believe

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Speaker 3: one seventy to minus one eighty is what I'm seeing

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Speaker 3: out there for LSU in Game one against Tennessee. That

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Speaker 3: number should not be above minus one forty. If it's

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Speaker 3: Ty Floyd going, that number is more around a pick

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Speaker 3: to minus one fifteen. But it doesn't matter if it's

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Speaker 3: Andrew Lindsay or Chase Dollander. LSU is inflated in the

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Speaker 3: market because of the perception that Paul Skins has got

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Speaker 3: a pitch. But once you get past him. Oh by

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Speaker 3: the way, Tennessee saw him back on March thirtieth and

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Speaker 3: had no problems racking up a bunch of hits. And

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Speaker 3: I know it was seven innings. It was good ball

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Speaker 3: that he threw, but they were hit a ble Tennessee

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Speaker 3: could hit him. So we'll see how that plays out.

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Speaker 3: Because after after Skins, I don't know what ELSELSU has

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Speaker 3: to make a deep run in this tournament.

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Speaker 1: Speaking Tennessee, help me kind of figure them out a

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Speaker 1: little bit because they're sitting here plus seven p fifty

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Speaker 1: to win the national championship. But prior to this run,

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Speaker 1: they were kind of a middling SEC team. They finished

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Speaker 1: sixteen and fourteen in conference play, they get shut up

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Speaker 1: by A and M in the first round of the

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Speaker 1: SEC tournament, and then they turn it all around. They

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Speaker 1: won five or six. They beat Charlotte twice in the

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Speaker 1: re to advance. Then they came back from a game

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Speaker 1: one loss to Southern miss and Hattiesburg and won eight

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Speaker 1: four and five zero to close it out. And when

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Speaker 1: you look at their team, potentially, when you combine it

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Speaker 1: with the park that they're pitching, they're pitching in their

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Speaker 1: power pitching unit their second nationally in strikeouts, second nationally,

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Speaker 1: and staff era. My only question is do they have

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Speaker 1: enough offense to squeeze by if their pitching staff really

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Speaker 1: brings it in this game? Because Jared Dickey is they're

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Speaker 1: only all SEC Picky's second team, and he only has

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Speaker 1: two hits in his last five games. They really need

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Speaker 1: someone like him to carry some more weight for them

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Speaker 1: in their lineup. Do you think the Balls are a

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Speaker 1: live dog here right away to win game one? I do.

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Speaker 3: I've already placed a bet on Tennessee like I want.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to be placing a larger bet on the

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Speaker 3: run line because it is priced about forty cents too high.

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Speaker 1: On LSU.

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Speaker 3: And there's a couple of advantages that Tennessee has in

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Speaker 3: this matchup and that they have throughout the College World Series.

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Speaker 3: You know LSU and Tennessee have the same fielding ranks,

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Speaker 3: but it's important to know that. You know, Tennessee is

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Speaker 3: second in the nation and earned rind average versus the staff,

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Speaker 3: and they're also second to nation strike out to walk ratio.

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Speaker 3: And you say, well, how do I know that that

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Speaker 3: means anything? So I went and posted an article like

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Speaker 3: a month ago, what are the key stats that determine

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Speaker 3: a College Baseball World Series winner. It's strike out to

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Speaker 3: walk ratio the average rank of all of the champions

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Speaker 3: over the past fifteen years, and strike out to walk

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Speaker 3: ratio is nineteenth in the nation. You have to have

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Speaker 3: an entire staff that can strike out just as many

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Speaker 3: as they face and is way more than they walk.

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Speaker 3: Right now, Tennessee is second in the nation as a

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Speaker 3: staff and strike out to walk ratio. So it's not

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Speaker 3: like they're ultra dependent on one pitcher. They have a full staff.

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Speaker 3: Can they hit enough against Paul Skins? Probably not, No,

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Speaker 3: not at all. I guess typ Floyd in the bullpen. Absolutely,

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Speaker 3: So that's the key. We'll see who the starting pitcher is.

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Speaker 3: But I've already bought Tennessee because no matter if LSU's

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Speaker 3: throwing their ace, it's still over priced.

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Speaker 4: Cool we go any further. As a reminder, Big Bets

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Speaker 1: So let's hop up to Bracket one and this matchup

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Speaker 1: between TCU and Oral Roberts. I think this is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually a little bit shocked to see the price

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Speaker 1: differential between these two to win the national championship being

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Speaker 1: so stark TCU eight to one or Roberts twenty two

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Speaker 1: to one. Yes, Cole Kleecker looked as good as he

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Speaker 1: looked all season against Indiana State, who's masterful there for

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Speaker 1: the Horned Frogs, they they were gifted home field advantage

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Speaker 1: in that one. And my big concern is this. You

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Speaker 1: talked about moving runners over and playing a little bit

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Speaker 1: small ball tis US forty ninth and team era, but

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Speaker 1: they walk a ton of guys one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: eighth out of three hundred and five D one teams

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Speaker 1: and walks issued, and they keep pace with an Oral

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Speaker 1: Roberts team that is just blasting, you know, teams offensively.

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Speaker 1: When you look at what they've done, as I mentioned

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Speaker 1: at the top, they've won twenty three or twenty four

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Speaker 1: straight up. Their team batting average is six nationally at

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Speaker 1: three twenty two, which is phenomenal, and then they have

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Speaker 1: an absolute killer in Jonah Cox. Their center fielder has

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Speaker 1: been great during this postseason run band four hundred two

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Speaker 1: homers nine RBIs in six games, and he's on a

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Speaker 1: forty seven game hit streak, the third longest in Division

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Speaker 1: One history. So when you put all this together and

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Speaker 1: you look at the Golden Eagles team ERA at three

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Speaker 1: point ninety seventh, that's seventh nationally. To me, I think

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Speaker 1: they should be favored here. And the fact that you're

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Speaker 1: on the other side of the bracket from Wake Forest,

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Speaker 1: I think is a bit of a gift. So am

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Speaker 1: I two bullish on the Cinderella year? Am againting wrapped

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Speaker 1: up in the emotion and the narrative? Or should they

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Speaker 1: be favored over the horn Frogs?

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Speaker 3: They absolutely should be favored. I project Jacob Hall in

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Speaker 3: the first game, whether it's Cole Clucker or Cam Brown

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Speaker 3: going for TCU. I make it exactly minus one ninety five.

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Speaker 3: And you know I've gone through it before. This is

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Speaker 3: based on runs per game, base runs FIP ex FIP bullpen,

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Speaker 3: expected innings pitched.

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Speaker 1: I've got Jacob Hall getting.

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Speaker 3: To the to the seventh, I've got Cole Klecker not

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Speaker 3: getting through the fifth, and Cam Brown for TCU not

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Speaker 3: even getting to the out of the fourth if you

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Speaker 3: look at their season averages. But I think the thing

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Speaker 3: that well, and you talk about TCU walking a lot

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Speaker 3: of players, how many times did Oral Roberts score runs

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Speaker 3: in Eugene because they were walked all inning? I mean,

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Speaker 3: they took complete advantage of that. And if it happens

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Speaker 3: agains against TCU, they're going to score a bunch of runs.

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Speaker 3: But the biggest difference between these two teams, and by

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Speaker 3: the way, before I pull out the biggest difference between

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Speaker 3: these two teams, Oral Roberts is number one in the

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Speaker 3: nation and fielding percentage. I mean this is a BBOC

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Speaker 3: is a fielding percentage podcast. Oral Roberts is number one

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Speaker 3: in the nation. Right, so there's sixteenth that ultra You know,

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Speaker 3: can you win the College World Series? It depends on

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Speaker 3: strikeout to walk ratio. Oral Roberts' sixteenth in the nation.

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Speaker 3: They have checked the boxes everywhere you need to be

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Speaker 3: to be a threat to win here now, specifically against TCU.

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Speaker 3: Where is the huge discrepancy you mentioned it, Mike, I mean,

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Speaker 3: you you can't be ultra reliant on bombs when you

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Speaker 3: come to td amer Trade Park. It's just too big.

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Speaker 3: But really, The biggest difference in this is the bullpens

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Speaker 3: and the staff Eras TCU comes in at seventy first,

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Speaker 3: Oral Roberts comes in at sixteenth.

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Speaker 1: When you do a.

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Speaker 3: Combined ERA FIP and x FIP average, TCU is one

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Speaker 3: point one higher in the number than Oral Roberts. This

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Speaker 3: should be Oral Roberts minus one ninety. I said it

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Speaker 3: a week ago. I'll say it again. Market, just the oddsmakers,

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Speaker 3: the market and betters are just not respecting what the

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Speaker 3: praying hands of South Tulsa are doing.

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Speaker 1: From Tulsa, Oklahoma to a matchup of two Southern schools,

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Speaker 1: Virginia against Florida. They're both seven to two to win

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Speaker 1: the national title. I'm gonna start with my thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the wall. Who's here. They lead the nation in batting average,

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Speaker 1: They're first in doubles by a wide margin. You bring up,

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Speaker 1: you know, the power alley and what you want to

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Speaker 1: do in this huge ballpark in Omaha. They're seventh in runs.

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Speaker 1: They're not a home run team, but they are a

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Speaker 1: big inning team and you saw it in their five

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Speaker 1: runs second inning to close out Duke. I'm just going

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Speaker 1: to walk through what they did in that inning. A double,

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Speaker 1: a walk, a ground out, single, single, single, another walk,

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Speaker 1: a single, a walk, and they hit into a double

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Speaker 1: play they get five runs out of But that to

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Speaker 1: me seems like the formula to be able to go

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Speaker 1: out and break a Florida pitching staff that can be

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Speaker 1: really strong. Now on the other side, UVA has had

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Speaker 1: a strong staff the entire season. Their third team era

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Speaker 1: at three point sixty four, fifteenth in strikeouts, and of

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Speaker 1: course the nation was introduced to Stephen Shock as their closer.

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Speaker 1: Kenny Powers two point zero minus the substance abuse eight

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Speaker 1: saves on the season era of three fifty two k's

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Speaker 1: and thirty six innings. I love the guy. Everyone who

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Speaker 1: listened to him wax poetic about dippin' dots and everything

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Speaker 1: else during his postgame speech, I think fell in love

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Speaker 1: with him as well. And then the other side, you

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Speaker 1: have the Florida Gators, who there I would argue the

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Speaker 1: eight hundred pound gorilla in this matchup. They spend the

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Speaker 1: entire season more or less in the top three in

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Speaker 1: the AP. They have such a balanced lineup, and they

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Speaker 1: have the collegiate version of Otani and Jack Paglioni eighty

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Speaker 1: one k's in sixty nine innings, pitch thirty one, home runs,

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Speaker 1: padding three thirty six, and he hits like ninety seven

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Speaker 1: to ninety eight on the gun. No big deal. So

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Speaker 1: Florida probably has, you know, more of the top end talent.

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Speaker 1: But Virginia as a team I feel like it's playing

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Speaker 1: better team baseball right now. Am I seeing this matchup

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Speaker 1: in the right way? Because, as I mentioned, with both

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Speaker 1: of them at sorry nine to two, not seven to

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Speaker 1: two plus four to fifty to win the national title,

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Speaker 1: is there more value on either one of them? Or

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Speaker 1: should you go with Virginia.

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Speaker 3: I have Virginia winning this game in Game one against Florida,

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Speaker 3: but I expect with the depth of Florida's arms what

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Speaker 3: they have and you mentioned all of them, they have

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Speaker 3: enough to go through the loser's bracket and really give

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Speaker 3: TCU an oral r. Roberts slam shut the Cinderella slipper.

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Speaker 3: Florida has way too much pitching. I mean, when you

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Speaker 3: have position players that are making sixteen starts and throwing

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Speaker 3: you know, X amount of strikeouts, it's pretty impressive the depth,

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Speaker 3: and really that calls out the depth, right oil robertson

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Speaker 3: tc you do not have the depth in the pitching

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Speaker 3: to hang with Florida, who on day three, four or

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Speaker 3: five of this marathon absolutely does. Now when we talk

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Speaker 3: about a head to head matchup of Virginia against Florida,

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Speaker 3: I was shocked to see what my projections were, again

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Speaker 3: based on base runs, based on runs per game, based

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Speaker 3: on Phipps ex fips, and.

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Speaker 1: Projected in and started.

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Speaker 3: I've got Brandon Sproute as an underdog to Connelly early,

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Speaker 3: who may not be the game one starter. I'm pretty

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Speaker 3: sure Nick Parker is going to be the game one

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Speaker 3: starter for Virginia. So Virginia over Brandon sprot would be

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty five. Nick Parker over Hurston Waldrup would

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Speaker 3: be minus one sixty five. I don't think it's going

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Speaker 3: to be Hurston Waldroup. He'll probably get game two privileges

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Speaker 3: of thinking that they'll make it to the winners braget.

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Speaker 3: But no matter, no matter how you slice it, I

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Speaker 3: have Virginia minus one sixty five favorite in this first game,

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Speaker 3: and I'm a little shocked myself that it's that high.

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Speaker 3: But when you look at the fact that Virginia average

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Speaker 3: is eight point four runs per game, Florida is more

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Speaker 3: than a half run lower than that when you look

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Speaker 3: at bullpen eras, it just Virginia beats them in.

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Speaker 1: Every single category.

432
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 3: And if we're looking for someone to win this bracket,

433
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 3: this team is number one in batting average. This team

434
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 3: is number one in doubles per game, extremely important in

435
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 3: a cavernous park like Tdmmerior, trade and oh, by the way,

436
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 3: are all important. Strikeout to walk ratio. Virginia is fourth

437
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 3: in the nation. So when you talk about national champion

438
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 3: contenders that you always have to focus on that they

439
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 3: have the better staff Lorda's thirtieth and strikeout to walk ratio.

440
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 3: There's nothing that wrong with that. Hey, too shabby, thirty

441
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 3: fifth and staffyra not too bad, But you're not Virginia,

442
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 3: and your offense does not hit as many doubles or

443
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 3: advance runners. In the scoring department, they're thirty third versus

444
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 3: Virginia is eighth in scoring. There's just too many boxes

445
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 3: that Virginia has the upper advantage in this. So give

446
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 3: me Virginia with you know, the odds that I say

447
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 3: it should be higher than what they are.

448
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 1: So you're painting a picture for a journey for the

449
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,919
Speaker 1: Gators potentially losing, you know, right off the bat but

450
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: then surviving in the loser's bracket and potentially pushing and

451
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:20,479
Speaker 1: still giving themselves a chance to get to the College

452
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 1: World Series Final. So they're a team because of their

453
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 1: depth overall in their arms that they could weather a

454
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 1: loss in game one. What's a team in you know,

455
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 1: the final eight year that absolutely has to win right

456
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: off the bat for them to feel comfortable about getting

457
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: to the championship.

458
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 3: That's a great question because when you look at the arms,

459
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 3: if Stanford goes you know, if Stanford lines up against

460
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: wake Forest and they throw Quinn Matthews, who just threw

461
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty six pitches and dominated the Super Regional,

462
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 3: if they when Stanford uses that card, if they don't

463
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 3: get a win out of that, it's yeah, their tost

464
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 3: it's gone. And you know, I don't think TC and

465
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 3: Oral Roberts have the depth to hang around at all.

466
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 3: But Stanford is really the one. If you don't cash

467
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 3: in against wake Forest using Quinn Matthews, it's gonna be rough. Now,

468
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 3: Joey Dixon pitched, I don't know, I think what maybe

469
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 3: twenty pitches fifteen pitches in that last game against Texas,

470
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 3: So I don't think that he's going to be taxed

471
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 3: or tired if he does get the start against Wake.

472
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 3: But once you don't want to take Quinn Matthews into

473
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 3: the loser's bracket. You probably want him to throw right away.

474
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 3: And if you burn that card and Wake Forest be two,

475
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 3: it's going to be a quick tournament for Stanford.

476
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: So what I'm hearing from you is that Wake and

477
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: Virginia are your winners, the two brackets meeting in the

478
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 1: National Championship at this point, if you had to offer

479
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: a third team to say that there's just great value

480
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 1: or you're interested in, you know, kind of hedging your

481
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: bets a little bit, who's your you know, we'll call

482
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: it to be pick to be the third team, kind

483
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 1: of messing around with a chance to go to the final.

484
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 3: It'd be Florida. I think. I think Florida is close

485
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 3: enough to Virginia. And the deal with that is that

486
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 3: you've got to get to their third and fourth starter,

487
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 3: right That's where Florida's power is is. But they have

488
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 3: more arms and more appearances from stronger guys than the

489
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 3: bullpen and the stoppers. But when it comes to a

490
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 3: starting pitcher, finally, early in Nick Parker that's a bad combination.

491
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 3: Now it's the same thing with wake Forest. Right after

492
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 3: you get past Rhet Lauder and Josh Hartle, the pitching

493
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 3: really falls off from a starting perspective. They go to

494
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay Ray's model, where it's like two innings by

495
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 3: everybody that'll come out. That's the only game that you're

496
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 3: going to be able to snatch on wake Forest. As

497
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 3: to where you go down to Virginia and Florida, Florida

498
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 3: is the number of the team. If I had to

499
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 3: swap out one of these bracket winners, it would be

500
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 3: swapping out Virginia for Florida because Florida has the arms.

501
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: One last question for you in terms of putting together

502
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 1: your bets, whether it's single game to advance, you know,

503
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: to win the national championship, are there any managers of

504
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: the last eight teams here that are just a plus

505
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: for lack of a better word, and really do a

506
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: great job of either managing their staff or playing small ball,

507
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 1: or you know, making those tiny adjustments throughout the game.

508
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: Some of it can just be a simple as really

509
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: understanding how to manage a rotation, as you just mentioned,

510
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 1: kind of going the Tampa Bay Rays model, and using

511
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: you know, a de facto third pitcher by committee. Is

512
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: there anyone here that stands above the rest in your eyes?

513
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 3: Well, I think two of the best head coaches here

514
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 3: and and you know, I guess it's time for me

515
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 3: to mend that bridge across the Mississippi River from Arkansas

516
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: to Tennessee. Tony Gotello is fantastic at managing his bullpen,

517
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 3: managing Burns, managing you know, how long Dollander is going

518
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 3: to go, how long Wendsy's going to go. Seth Halverson

519
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 3: has been one of the best closers in the nation.

520
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 3: That staff is managed very well. I have a lot

521
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 3: of respect for Tony Gutelo and how he manages that team,

522
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,719
Speaker 3: But I think the one that's above him is Ryan Fulmer.

523
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 3: For Oral Roberts, you saw pitching changes after each out

524
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 3: for each batter against Eugene against Oregon, and that tells

525
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: me that we've got a head coach that has every

526
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: single stick on the opponent side scouted and he knows

527
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 3: which arm and his bullpen matches up. Because I saw

528
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: Ryan Fulmer make a walk out to the mound like

529
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 3: every sixty seconds in Eugene, but and every decision he

530
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 3: made was the right one. So if there are two

531
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 3: teams that definitely have a coaching advantage, I've got Tennessee

532
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 3: winning their first game against LSU. I've got Oral Roberts

533
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: heavily projected over TCU in game one.

534
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 1: This has been the Big Bets on Campus podcast, brought

535
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM or reminder to our audience,

536
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: we're going to see if we can fit in an

537
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 1: extra episode here on BBOC next week, but for certain

538
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 1: we're going to be moving over to the Action Network

539
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: podcast to do an in depth preview of the National Championship,

540
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: that best of three series which is starting a week

541
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: from Saturday. So be sure to flip on over on

542
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 1: your podcast app of choice and make sure to listen

543
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 1: to that to download as a subscribe. Tell friend, tell

544
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: Anatomy you know how we do here at BBOC. For

545
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: colum listen, I'm Mike Calabaries. Thank you so much for listening,

546
00:25:53,000 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: and best of luck with your bets. Action Network reminds

547
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

548
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

549
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,160
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