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Speaker 1: and rates may vary. Hello Aaron, Welcome to the Wednesday

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Speaker 1: edition of the Chuck Podcast. We have a nice complete

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Speaker 1: episode for you. As always, I will have a lot

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Speaker 1: to say about all things having to do with the

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Speaker 1: war in Iran and it's impact on the atomy and frankly,

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Speaker 1: the I don't know what you call it. I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to call it necessarily leadership from the president on

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Speaker 1: this war. But he is a bit of a weather

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Speaker 1: vane on this war. And I will get into that

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Speaker 1: in a few minutes. We will also do questions and

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Speaker 1: of course a top five list, but I'm going to

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Speaker 1: begin where it's understandable. Right if you're if it's early

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Speaker 1: in the week since the start of this Iran war,

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Speaker 1: you may be confused if you've been listening to Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's rheter because if you listen to Donald trump'srhetoric, this

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Speaker 1: war is going to come to an end any day now,

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Speaker 1: maybe any week now, any day now, any hour now.

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Speaker 1: It's close. It's close. They're dealing with the right people.

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Speaker 1: They're doing this, and it if you follow the military

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Speaker 1: side of things, we're on the verge of escalating this conflict.

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Speaker 1: We're on the verge of sending in ground troops at

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Speaker 1: least at a minimum, to the shorelines or to the

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Speaker 1: key islands in order to try to figure out how

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Speaker 1: to how to open up the straight up more moves.

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Speaker 1: And I think it's you know, it's obviously it's we

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Speaker 1: know this is all due to Donald Trump kind of simultaneously.

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Speaker 1: He's basically trying to manage two wars simultaneously. One in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East and one on the trading floor of

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Speaker 1: Wall Street. And I guess the question that's worth asking

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Speaker 1: is which one is he trying to win? And I

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Speaker 1: think this is the I think this is the open

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Speaker 1: question because right now, in some ways the markets, he

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Speaker 1: has had some success manipulating the markets. Right. We've noticed

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Speaker 1: there is this pattern, right if you will, and five

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Speaker 1: straight weeks somewhere between twelve and fifteen hours before the

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Speaker 1: opening bell for that given week, since the start of

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Speaker 1: the Iran war, there'll be a statement for Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: which injects diplomatic hope one might call it into a

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Speaker 1: deteriorating military situation, right, And each time he does it,

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Speaker 1: it has the desired effect. It stabilizes the equities markets.

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Speaker 1: It knocks oil back down closer to right around one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars range, maybe even below it until the news

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Speaker 1: of the reality of the situation percolates back up, and

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Speaker 1: then suddenly the energy markets respond. So you know, let's

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Speaker 1: let's I'm going to go through each example week by week.

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Speaker 1: So we'll start with this. Right in week one, he

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Speaker 1: sort of had the pivot from the shock and all right,

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Speaker 1: and you heard, so you had Operation Epic fury launches

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Speaker 1: on February twenty eighth, tomahawks hit cities in Iran. Global

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Speaker 1: markets braced for what they thought was going to be

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Speaker 1: a seven Andy style oil shock. Then what does Trump

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Speaker 1: do on March second? That Monday, Trump ignores the smoke

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Speaker 1: over Tehran and focuses on the ticker, and he says,

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Speaker 1: I thought oil prices were going to go up higher

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Speaker 1: than they are now, and I thought we would see

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Speaker 1: a bigger drop in stock. It hasn't been that bad.

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Speaker 1: We're in control, all right. That's week one, and then

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Speaker 1: he claims that the war would be a four to

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Speaker 1: six week sprint. Remember he called it excursion. I think

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Speaker 1: he meant incursion. He said it wouldn't be a forever war.

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Speaker 1: So he stabilizes the initial panic sell off in week one.

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Speaker 1: Week two, reports surface that the IRGC is leaderless and

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Speaker 1: it's on its back foot after target it strikes. What

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Speaker 1: does Trump do that Monday? And March ninth, at eight

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Speaker 1: fifteen in the morning, before the stock market opens, he says,

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Speaker 1: there will be no deal with Iran except underconditional surrender,

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Speaker 1: and after that, we will work tirelessly to make Iran

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Speaker 1: economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. Iran will

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Speaker 1: have a great future. So he's proposing essentially a Marshall

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Speaker 1: Plan right, using rhetoric like it actually helps create a

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Speaker 1: surge in the stock market, even as the Pentagon admits

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Speaker 1: they had no day after plan Week three, the sanctions

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Speaker 1: carrot if you will carg Island right, Iran's main oil terminal,

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Speaker 1: it's essentially obliterated. Gas prices surge over four dollars a gallon.

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Speaker 1: So what does Trump do that Monday? In an interview

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Speaker 1: with The New York Post released just before the opening

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Speaker 1: of the stock market, he says, I have a plan

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Speaker 1: for everything. I could waive certain oil related sanctions to

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Speaker 1: reduce prices if they behave. They're begging to reach a deal.

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Speaker 1: They're calling me constantly. I don't always pick up, but

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Speaker 1: they're calling. Well. Oil drops four percent on the waving

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Speaker 1: sanctions comment, despite the fact there was no functioning Iranian

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Speaker 1: government left to actually negotiate with. Then there's the false

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Speaker 1: pause that was week four. This is March twenty second

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Speaker 1: and twenty third. The military reality is domestic pressure mounts

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Speaker 1: as three thousand casualties are reported. Israel pushes for strikes

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Speaker 1: on some nuclear sites So Trump, on Monday, March twenty third, says,

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Speaker 1: surprise press conference on the tarmac again before the market's open.

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Speaker 1: We're having a little bit of a pause. I've decided

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Speaker 1: to pause the threat to hit the energy sites for

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Speaker 1: a few days because the talks are going very well.

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Speaker 1: He claims, very very well. You'll be very happy. So

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Speaker 1: while Trump claimed to pause, the Pentagon simultaneously was briefing

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Speaker 1: that the operations are going to continue at pace. The

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Speaker 1: market though heard the word pause. Maybe that's what they

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Speaker 1: wanted to hear for seventy two hours before the Thursday

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Speaker 1: extension revealed it was a tactical stall, not a peace deal.

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Speaker 1: Then there's the threat from over this last weekend hitting

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Speaker 1: the desalinization plants or the energy markets. So the reality

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Speaker 1: is the eighty second airborne shows up in the region

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Speaker 1: for quote unquote stabilization, Iran hits a Q eighty oil tanker.

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Speaker 1: What does Trump do on Monday morning seven am truth

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Speaker 1: social thread quote The US is in serious discussions with

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Speaker 1: a new and more reasonable regime. Great progress. However, if

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Speaker 1: a deal is not reached shortly, we will have no

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Speaker 1: choice but to completely obliterate their electric plants, oil wells,

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Speaker 1: and possibly all desalinization plants. So this is his straight

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Speaker 1: of or Moose play out. It's a new regime totally

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Speaker 1: unverified to keep the dow steady, while the threat to

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Speaker 1: obliterate water sources keeps oil traders from shorting the market.

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Speaker 1: So the White House and the President keeps using his

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Speaker 1: truth social to basically front run the official Pentagon briefings.

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Speaker 1: Official Pentagon briefings simply create to me a drum beat

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Speaker 1: of escalation, not de escalation. And there doesn't appear to

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Speaker 1: be many off rams, and we keep sending in more

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Speaker 1: folks who would be part of any sort of ground

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Speaker 1: troop operation if he orders it. So you have that,

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Speaker 1: then you have the fact that allies have no idea

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Speaker 1: what we're up to. AP reported that Trump has been

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Speaker 1: telling allies go get your own oil, and you go

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Speaker 1: in the straight of Horme moves and get it. We

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Speaker 1: don't need it. Now, here's something to understand, right, And

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Speaker 1: this goes to the question of which war is Trump

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Speaker 1: really wanting to win. He sits here and he's clearly look,

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Speaker 1: it is no doubt he knows he's boxed himself in.

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Speaker 1: He's in an impossible situation, right, It is you know, heads,

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Speaker 1: he loses, tails, we lose. We all are going to

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Speaker 1: lose here in the short term. And you know this,

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Speaker 1: we now know why so many presidents before never did this,

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Speaker 1: realizing the imassive economic global economic impact that this would

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Speaker 1: have hasn't hit yet. But I'm gonna explain that. Frankly,

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Speaker 1: it's about to come unfortunately. And meanwhile, he just just

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Speaker 1: trying to He's just trying to win the day, right,

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Speaker 1: I'll gladly give you a quarter tomorrow for a hamburger today.

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Speaker 1: Infamous those of you old enough to remember Popeye and

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Speaker 1: the dude that always always always wanted a hamburger today,

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Speaker 1: he would gladly pay you tomorrow for it. This is

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump in a nutshell, right. He's just always putting off,

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Speaker 1: just trying to put off, put off. It is just

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Speaker 1: can he deal with today? Can he deal with today?

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Speaker 1: And he's kind of he's basically a political day trader

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Speaker 1: who's obsessive about the stock market itself on it now

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Speaker 1: here is something that is an uncomfortable truth and it

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Speaker 1: deserves scrutiny because there's no doubt there is grift and

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Speaker 1: market manipulation going on since February twenty eighth, the S

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Speaker 1: and P five hundred has declined overall, not a surprise.

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Speaker 1: The war started on February twenty eighth. Of course it's down,

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Speaker 1: but eighty five percent of the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundreds Green days as in days when a majority when

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Speaker 1: the overall S and P five hundred was up, not down,

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Speaker 1: have occurred on a Monday following a Trump piece is

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Speaker 1: coming post. So the point is is here we go again,

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Speaker 1: and he did it again, and he's been doing it again,

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Speaker 1: and look, should this be investigated? Of course, is his

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Speaker 1: sec going to do anything serious? Of course not right.

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Speaker 1: All of this is happening in plain sight. And of

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Speaker 1: course we have the other story about I love the

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Speaker 1: weird denial by Sean Parnell, the spokesperson for Pete hag Set,

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Speaker 1: that Financial Times had this big story about that somebody

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Speaker 1: representing Pete hag Sets was shopping around looking to make

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Speaker 1: a big purchase of sort of investments in the defense industry.

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Speaker 1: And it's clear the way, And I got to read

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Speaker 1: you the Parnell quote directly on this because parsing it

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Speaker 1: tells you everything you need to know about what is

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Speaker 1: actually truthful in that Financial Time story sometimes the respokesperson's

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Speaker 1: response actually can firms the story they're trying not to confirm.

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Speaker 1: So Parnell on X says the following that neither Secretary

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Speaker 1: Heigsith nor any of his representatives approached black Rock regarding

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Speaker 1: an investment in the defense industrials Active ETF. So it's

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Speaker 1: he's denying the black Rock portion of the story specifically, right,

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Speaker 1: anytime you see a denial of specific details, but sort

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Speaker 1: of not. He never overall denied that any of the

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Speaker 1: that the larger idea that he was looking for an

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Speaker 1: investment in defense industries and that you know, before the

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Speaker 1: start of the war, he didn't deny any of that.

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Speaker 1: He just denied a specific part of the accusation. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: the point is it's pretty clear that more of that

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Speaker 1: report is true than not true. And then they as

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Speaker 1: a as a clever spokesperson would do, not an honest

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Speaker 1: and ethical one, but a clever one would do, is

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Speaker 1: you find a Keith a specific fact that you can

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Speaker 1: deny and hang your hat on and then and hope

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Speaker 1: that most people take it as a full denial of

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Speaker 1: the whole story rather than what the denial actually it is.

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Speaker 1: But the fact is this is one of those stories

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Speaker 1: where do the details even matter. I mean, the entire

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Speaker 1: Trump administration has been behaving this way. I mean, and

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Speaker 1: there's not really any doesn't seem to be any any

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Speaker 1: negative blowback unless it looks like you're keeping Trump out

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Speaker 1: from getting a cut, like you know, he'll over time

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Speaker 1: get upset. If it looks like you're trying to pull

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Speaker 1: one over on him financially, then he'll get upset. But

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Speaker 1: if you're doing something like this, I mean, look the

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Speaker 1: whole philosophy. I mean, we've seen there was a good

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Speaker 1: study by Pro publica earlier this week about the cases

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Speaker 1: that the Department of Justice, led by Pam Bonni has

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Speaker 1: dropped in. How many white collar cases are just being

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Speaker 1: dropped left and right right. If you look at Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's pardons, anybody, anybody that is hit with massive fines

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Speaker 1: that have basically been convicted and sentenced to go to

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Speaker 1: prison for what one would call white collar crimes, so

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Speaker 1: financial crimes if you will, it's almost universally an easy

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Speaker 1: pardon for him. I mean, I guess you can say

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Speaker 1: he wants to do unto others as he wants to

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Speaker 1: be treated, and you know, if he thinks financial crimes

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be punishable as felonies, then he's not going to

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Speaker 1: let any of his friends see financial crimes punished as

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Speaker 1: felonies here. So the point is is that, you know,

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Speaker 1: it was amusing to me. That's why I love that.

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Speaker 1: This is why as a reporter it's always really important

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Speaker 1: to ask for a response, because the response can actually

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Speaker 1: tell you more than the story itself. And Parnell's response,

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Speaker 1: in a very specific denial about the black Rock portion

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Speaker 1: of this tells you, oh, there's a lot more truth

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Speaker 1: to this. Just found the one thing that they thought

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Speaker 1: they could hang their hat on that wasn't you know

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Speaker 1: whatever the specifics was right. It's probably an affiliate of

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Speaker 1: black Rock, some entity that's not technically black Rock, but

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Speaker 1: might pop point is he's that we all know that

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Speaker 1: there was all sorts of fuzzy natures of that fact.

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Speaker 1: But you know what is disappointing is this idea that

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Speaker 1: there was no denial that he was looking for investment

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Speaker 1: opportunities in the defense industry before the start of this war.

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Speaker 1: But again, the sun rose in the east and the

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Speaker 1: sunsets in the west, right, this is sort of par

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Speaker 1: for the course for this administration. This episode of the

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Speaker 1: am a customer. But the question is, and I think

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Speaker 1: that this is a fair question, what is about to

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Speaker 1: happen in this war? Are we going to because now

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Speaker 1: you've got the reports in the Wall Street Journal that

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Speaker 1: indicate Trump is thinking about I mean, that's the other

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Speaker 1: thing thinking about. Just okay, he promised this was only

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Speaker 1: going to be four to six weeks. We've seen the reports.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of bored of the war. He'd probably much

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Speaker 1: prefer to talk about his ballroom, his new plans for

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Speaker 1: a presidential library to become a let's just say for

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Speaker 1: some of us, too prominent of a position in the

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Speaker 1: Miami skyline I just it's a head scratcher to me

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Speaker 1: that a guy who's never lived a day in his

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Speaker 1: life in Miami, has really no serious connections to Miami

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Speaker 1: is going to dot the skyline of Miami in a way.

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Speaker 1: I mean, please go put it in New York, Go

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Speaker 1: put it in Trump Tower, Go put it at Fifth Avenue.

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Speaker 1: Hey Penn, how come you don't want the Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: Presidential Library? But I will? But it is what it is.

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Speaker 1: I will just tell you this. If the building, that building,

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Speaker 1: that rendering that Eric Trump sent, I can't I assume

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Speaker 1: Calshi or polymarket of it. Will this building ever be completed?

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Speaker 1: And will it be as tall as they claim? Because

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Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting about about height issues in South

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Speaker 1: Florida's there's only you can only go a certain height

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Speaker 1: on buildings in Miami because you can't it doesn't support. Eventually,

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Speaker 1: you can't dig a you can't dig too far deep

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Speaker 1: to create a stable, a stability underground before you hit

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Speaker 1: the ocean. So I think he's going to be limited

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Speaker 1: in what they actually can do structurally there. So the

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Speaker 1: idea that the actual library building will look remotely similar

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Speaker 1: to the rendering that Eric Trump's sent, I think is

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Speaker 1: quite small. But the point is is that the reports

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's board with the war, he realizes by the way,

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Speaker 1: he's now at an all time low in his approval rating,

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Speaker 1: all time high in his disapproval rating. The consumer confidence

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Speaker 1: index is now at the same horrible low that it

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Speaker 1: was at the height of the inflationary period in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, which was dragging down the Biden presidency and

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Speaker 1: arguably destroyed destroyed the Biden presidency politically right well, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's consumer confidence numbers that the Michigan index are now

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Speaker 1: that low. His approval rating is lower than where Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden was at this point in time. His disapproval rating

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Speaker 1: is higher than it was. His approval rating is lower

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Speaker 1: than it now than it ever was in his first term.

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Speaker 1: And he already had a bad midterm that first term.

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Speaker 1: Of course, he only lost the House, not the Senate

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Speaker 1: in that first midterm. And I think this time, I

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Speaker 1: think it's fairly I think it's fair to say, and

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Speaker 1: that's going to be my top five this week. I

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Speaker 1: think it's fair to say that at this point in time,

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Speaker 1: I think Democrats are favorite to win them both. It

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Speaker 1: would be they have to make mistakes now they have

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Speaker 1: to have bad candidates do bad things in a general

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Speaker 1: election sort of below an opportunity because the environment and

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Speaker 1: the national wins and all of that. Right this is

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Speaker 1: we are now in blue wave territory, pure and simple.

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Speaker 1: It is there. You're looking at twenty. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: House is done. The question really is how much? And

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Speaker 1: some of it will have to do with the various

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Speaker 1: redistricting efforts. I kind of think, you know, the irony

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Speaker 1: just on a quick aside here before you get back

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Speaker 1: to a run. This environment is so good for Democrats

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Speaker 1: at the moment that I think if Virginia did not

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Speaker 1: if they don't pass their maps right now, it's six

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Speaker 1: to five democratic advantage. With this political environment, they're going

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Speaker 1: to be it's going to be a three without remapping

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Speaker 1: anything in Virginia, and they're trying to get ten to one.

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Speaker 1: Probably ends up nine to two. But you know, this

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Speaker 1: is why I think this is such a wasted effort

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Speaker 1: and probably going to be probably going to blow back

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Speaker 1: on the party in Virginia sooner than Virginia Democrats realize here,

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Speaker 1: and the irony is they didn't need it. They didn't

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Speaker 1: really need it. We're talking that maybe this redistricting is

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Speaker 1: going to net them one more seat than the political

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Speaker 1: environment itself would have neted. And to think all of

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Speaker 1: this political capital that Barack Obama's flushing down the toilet,

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Speaker 1: that Abigail Spamberger's flushing down the toilet for one extra

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Speaker 1: seat in an environment that they're probably going to win

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Speaker 1: twenty to forty nationally overall. But look, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: set that aside. Where we are here is this war

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Speaker 1: is a Trump is now in his continues to be

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Speaker 1: in this impossible box. He knows he's got to get

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Speaker 1: out of this war. And yes, America can withstand and

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Speaker 1: energy crisis caused by this war better than most other countries.

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Speaker 1: And so that's why his you know, he's trying to

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Speaker 1: basically say, you worry about it, but that But I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: If if Europe gets the flu, We're economy gets the flu,

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Speaker 1: We're going to get a cold. All right. We are

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Speaker 1: all interconnected. We are not going to be able to

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Speaker 1: hide from this and this, this, this, and eventually it's

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Speaker 1: going to get worse. And I want to share. I

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Speaker 1: want to share a few interesting pieces that have been written.

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Speaker 1: This came from Liz Hoffman her newsletter in semaphore, and

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Speaker 1: she was trying to explain answer the question why do

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Speaker 1: markets look calmer than they should in this current period? Right,

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Speaker 1: so far, the price of oil hasn't gone as high

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Speaker 1: yet as folks expect, and the Nasdaq correction looks more

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Speaker 1: of it AI driven due to the impact on the

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Speaker 1: investors and some of the major investors in AI right

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Speaker 1: now in the Gulf States. And the question is is

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Speaker 1: this resilience or is this simply complacency? Right? Is the

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Speaker 1: world so flush with money that it can still absorb

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Speaker 1: more risk? And maybe that's true of the American Stock

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Speaker 1: exchange or investors expect another government bailout, right, they've gotten

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Speaker 1: They got so used to government bailing them out of

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Speaker 1: the COVID pandemic or government bailing them out of the

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Speaker 1: credit crisis. Right, But there's a third option, and that

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Speaker 1: is just simply borrow time. Right. We got an oil buffer,

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Speaker 1: we have tankers already at sea, you've had the national

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Speaker 1: reserve releases have already taken place in a lot of countries.

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Speaker 1: But guess what, all of that is going to get

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Speaker 1: exhausted sooner than you think. And the real point that

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Speaker 1: Liz Hoffman was trying to make is that the second

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Speaker 1: and third order effects of this war, or have not

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Speaker 1: let y enda yet. I've not landed yet. We don't

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Speaker 1: yet have crops stunted by fertilizer shortages. We will. We

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Speaker 1: don't yet have blackouts in Asia due to because of

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Speaker 1: how much oil to Asia comes out of the Strait

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Speaker 1: of Ormus. We don't have MRI rationing yet from helium shortages.

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Speaker 1: We will. And we don't yet have grocery price increases

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Speaker 1: from trucking costs. But the promise you we will. Right.

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Speaker 1: All of that is these are these have been lagging

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Speaker 1: indicators and they haven't hit yet. Right. She used a

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Speaker 1: pandemic metaphor, meaning scientists warned us we went to dinner anyway,

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Speaker 1: then we didn't for a very long time. Well, it

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Speaker 1: may be the same slow motion dynamic. Right. EU Energy

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Speaker 1: chief is urging Europeans to cut travel Soul is weighing

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Speaker 1: driving restrictions because of the energy shortage. The last this

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Speaker 1: is important note the last Middle Eastern jet fuel shipment

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Speaker 1: reaches Britain this week, which means, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: we're going to have a jet fuel shortage. Twenty percent

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Speaker 1: of the world's oil comes through the Strait of hormones.

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Speaker 1: Forty percent of Europe's oil comes from the Strait of hormones,

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Speaker 1: and we have the first company unil ever citing the

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Speaker 1: war for a hiring freeze. So the point is, all

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Speaker 1: of the fears of what's going to happen haven't hit yet,

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump's actions have really helped mask a reality

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Speaker 1: that maybe hitting is going to be about to hit

429
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: us extraordinarily hard in the next four to six weeks,

430
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: which may explain why he so desperately wants to find

431
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 1: a way out. And you know, whether it's he thinks

432
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: that maybe he can bomb the leadership into submission, I

433
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 1: think that is of question. But this is a regime

434
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 1: that is no problem killing and its own people as

435
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 1: it is. Why does he think making the Iranian people

436
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: suffer through blackouts and lack of water? This is Donald

437
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: Trump that it's somehow going to bring the regime to

438
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: its knees. So I think that is one miscalculation here.

439
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: So then, of course, you know, if he's got to

440
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: open the straight of war moves and he's essentially alienated

441
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: all of our allies for the last year through tariffs

442
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: and through what he's done in Europe, and through his

443
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 1: lack of interest in helping Ukraine and all of that. Right,

444
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: he's mad at NATO now while he's been treating NATO

445
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: allies like crap for the last year, he's mad at

446
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,199
Speaker 1: other countries not helping go get your own oil out

447
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: of the straight of war moves, and he's been beating

448
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: them up with tariffs. So of course they don't want

449
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 1: to help. But at the end of the day, we're

450
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 1: the United States of America. We broke it, we got

451
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:57,199
Speaker 1: to fix it. So it does seem as if the

452
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 1: military planners are assuming they're going to go in with

453
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: some minimal ground invasion of some sort to figure out

454
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: how to open up the straight of hor moves. And

455
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: once again, once we have started a war we don't know,

456
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 1: we don't necessarily have the ability to finish. Yet we

457
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: pull up states right now, all we do is hand

458
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: ran more leverage. He walks away. He's basically handing them

459
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 1: more leverage over the straight of hoar moves than they

460
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: had before this war started. So the question I think

461
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: really is, and it's sort of do you believe what

462
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 1: he says or do you believe what they're doing? And

463
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: if you follow what they're doing. This war is about

464
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: to escalate. They're about to send in more ground troops,

465
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: actual ground troops. There's going to be an attempt here,

466
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: and maybe in his head he thinks commandeering control of

467
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: Iranian oil means he can trys oil Venezuela oil in

468
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 1: Iran and then somehow that might give him leverage with China.

469
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: I kind of think that's wishful thinking, but it may

470
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: be a strategy they think they're pursuing at the moment.

471
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 1: But I do think this, if you think, what should

472
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 1: you believe? Do you believe that he is trying to

473
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: find a way out of this? If there was an

474
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 1: easy way out, I think he already have found that

475
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: exit ramp and would have left. Or do you follow

476
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 1: what they're doing not what they're saying, And what they're

477
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: doing appears to be a preparation for escalation, and at

478
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: some point the economy and traders and the markets are

479
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: going to have to are going to end up accepting reality.

480
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: They're desperate not to accept reality. In any kind of

481
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: breadcrumb he drops to be to be used as an

482
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: excuse to say, well, maybe it's not you know, maybe

483
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: this isn't going to be as catastrophic as we thought.

484
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: Traders have grabbed onto it. But when you start to

485
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: look at these other fundamentals, right, consumers are already changing

486
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: their behavior. Consumer confidence wouldn't be this low if they

487
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,959
Speaker 1: weren't changing their behavior. And you're going to see the

488
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: second and third order effects start, unfortunately cascading very soon

489
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: and perhaps very quickly. So I hate to be such

490
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: doom and gloom about it, but I think when you

491
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: look stare at the situation, then you throw in the

492
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 1: fact that the allies that Donald Trump cares about the

493
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: most in the East are as financial allies. I think

494
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: he's I think Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Katar have

495
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: a lot more influence on him than Israel. Does I

496
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: know the popular mythology is that Israel has all this

497
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: influence on him. No, no, no, no, it's the people

498
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: that pay him money that have influence on him. Right.

499
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: This is why this should be such an important focal

500
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: point of of being concerned about this, because who's making

501
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: the strongest arguments now for the United States not to

502
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: leave and to not end this war until that regime

503
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: is essentially overthrown. But they don't say overthrown. They say,

504
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 1: tamed in some fort, but it's the Saudis, you equate Bahrain.

505
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: They're all at this point. I think they all regret

506
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 1: telling him go ahead and do it, you know, I mean,

507
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: this is the mistake. Donald Trump does not is not

508
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: somebody you can rely on long term. You can convince

509
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: Donald Trump to do something for you short term if

510
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: he thinks there's benefit to him, but you cannot rely

511
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: on him to stick to anything and to be a

512
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: long term partner with you on anybody. And it's a

513
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: huge mistake the Golf States made. It's what it was

514
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: interesting and this fight, you know, sort of there's been

515
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: an interesting fight between the two parties to figure out

516
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 1: how to win over the hearts and minds of the

517
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: Golf States parties. If you know, there was a look,

518
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: Joe Biden wanted to write those folks off, but the

519
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: reality was there's too much American investment, too much of

520
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: the American business community does do business with the Golf States,

521
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: and every presidential administration needs to be on good terms

522
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: with them. And the argument that the Biden folks were

523
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: trying to make to the Golf States, you know, and

524
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: you know, essentially they were trying to they didn't want

525
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: to be bought off, and I think the Golf States

526
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: got lured in because Trump was so transactional ie easy

527
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: to buy off, and they figure, oh, we can manipulate him,

528
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 1: and they can't. The problem is you can't get him

529
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: to stick to anything. And so they think they're getting

530
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: what they want. And now I guess you can go

531
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: to be careful what you wish for. And the Golf

532
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: States are now the dog that caught the car. They

533
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: got in the American president to do their dirty work.

534
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: They've been wanting to get rid of this regime in Iran,

535
00:31:54,640 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: arguably with more vigor than the Israelis, and now they

536
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: don't want us to leave. Now they're petrified because there

537
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: they are, they are dealing with the second and third

538
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: order effects and they have a lot more to lose

539
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: in this situation. And one wonders if they now regret

540
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: how much they have invested in the Trumps, in the

541
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: Trump family, thinking that they're getting what they want. Well,

542
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: they got the foreign policy they think they wanted. Are

543
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: they sure they wanted this? Is this what they wanted?

544
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: A global energy recession? Because unfortunately, I have a feeling

545
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: that's where that's where this is headed one more little

546
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: note that I wanted to share with you, and this

547
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 1: came from a column another Semaphore column from earlier today.

548
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: And by the way, they have these interesting newsletters by

549
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: region that I just think are tremendous. They have an

550
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: African newsletter that I think is really good. They have

551
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: a Golf State every day and it's a daily newsletter.

552
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 1: I never was getting daily news from the continent of

553
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: Africa or from the Golf States. And I'm certainly glad

554
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: i am today. So kudos to my friend Justin Smith

555
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 1: there and Ben Smith who've done some great work. But

556
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: what's interesting is this point that someofore makes in this

557
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: Southern newsletter they do energy newsletter that they do. The

558
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: war is accelerating the global glean energy transition, they write,

559
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: and China dominates it. Seventy percent of all green hardware

560
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 1: Chinese ev giant Geely is up thirty percent since the

561
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: war began. The world's largest battery maker CTL is up

562
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent. So we are now. America is now

563
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: a petro state thanks to Donald Trump, because he wanted

564
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: to get rid of windmills and get rid of anything

565
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: that was alternative energy other than oil and gas. So

566
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 1: we're now a petro state, and China is becoming an

567
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: electro state at a time when being a petro state

568
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: is very, very expensive. So the irony is that Beijing

569
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 1: has been thinking long term on green energy and the

570
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 1: Iran war may have just handed them a decisive advantage,

571
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: not in the battlefield, but in the supply change as

572
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: the rest of the world panics about oil, especially if

573
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 1: the Straight of Horn Moves is basically a battle a

574
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 1: battle field of sorts, if you will, for months on end,

575
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna have a lot of economies around the world

576
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: desperately trying to transition to green energy, and they're not

577
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: going to be able to buy supplies from the United States.

578
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 1: They're going to be able to get their material from China.

579
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 1: So yet another way, so this war with Iran has

580
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: strengthened Russia, has strengthened China, and basically as weak in

581
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: the United States diplomatically and certainly our reputation around the world,

582
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: and the fact that essentially, even though we're winning the battlefield,

583
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 1: we're essentially losing in the larger strategic battle, if you will,

584
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 1: with China and with Russia. One wonders if that ends

585
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 1: up forcing more bad decisions to follow more bad decisions. Right,

586
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: this is this is the concern. So many folks had

587
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 1: this the minute you go open this door on Iran, Right,

588
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: there were no good exit ramps and here we are. Hey,

589
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 1: One more note I want to share. It's a totally

590
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: totally different subject matter. But number one, it's a newsletter

591
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 1: that I think you guys should everybody should subscribe to.

592
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: You know, with so many questionable news sources when it

593
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: comes to science these days, especially when it comes to

594
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 1: viruses and what Bobby Kennedy Junior has done to eviscerate

595
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: the credibility of the CDC, the FDA, and of course

596
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: all things have it with HHS, I started subscribing as

597
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 1: something called your Local Epidemiologist, and I have to say

598
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 1: it is fantastic. They do a great job. They keep

599
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: up to date with public health developments, They share actual statistics,

600
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 1: actual recommendations. Well, guess what, there's a new COVID variant

601
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: that is out there, but it's manageable, and I just

602
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: wanted to read what it is because there's a there's

603
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: a there's a good warning here. Because what I love

604
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 1: about and I just highly recommend especially if you're frankly

605
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: over the age of fifty, because they do a really

606
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 1: good job of sort of dealing with the basic questions. Okay,

607
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 1: there's a new COVID variant. What should I do? All right?

608
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 1: So this new COVID variant is called the Cicada variant.

609
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 1: It's a descendant of omicron. It's been circulating around the

610
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: globe over time. It is now accounts for eleven percent

611
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 1: of US cases. And it's you know, they're basically warning

612
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: you know. So this is the question, is this going

613
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: to cause a spring or summer wave? Well, the answer

614
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: is they don't have much data of how fast it

615
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: is growing, but their guess is that this will cause

616
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: a mini wave of sorts. It won't be a nothing burger,

617
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 1: nor will it be a tsunami. Then the question is

618
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: should people over sixty five get a spring COVID nineteen shot?

619
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 1: And the recommendation is this, And this is why I

620
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 1: want to share it because I know a lot of

621
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: you are always concerned about this, and again, so great

622
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 1: substot your local epidemiologist. Go look it up. Should people

623
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 1: over sixty five get a spring COVID nineteen shot? Answer?

624
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 1: If it's been at least three months since your last dose.

625
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: A spring shot is a reasonable call. Timing in around

626
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 1: May or June tends to align well with how COVID

627
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 1: nineteen seasons typically play out, So look, you're not going

628
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: to Unfortunately, we can't rely on the actual public health

629
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 1: officials to give us sort of normal common sense advice,

630
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: normal common sense facts about what is actually happening. And

631
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: so I found that news helpful, and I figured I

632
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: might as well share it with you guys that you

633
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 1: might fund helpful to. This episode of the Chuck Podcast

634
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,600
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635
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665
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: April ninth, Local news Day. I hope you've already. I've

666
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 1: got a great email the other day from somebody saying

667
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: that they've, you know, thanks to me harping on this

668
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 1: so much. And I think that's what they use, the

669
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 1: words harp. It's like, okay, if you want to say

670
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: I'm harping, I'm harping that they've signed up and subscribe

671
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 1: to a local news outlet. So hey, I'm happy to

672
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 1: be the harp player for you here. So April ninth,

673
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: Local news Day. But you don't have to wait till

674
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: Labor ninth to go find out what good local news

675
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 1: is in your neck of the woods. Go figure it

676
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:49,240
Speaker 1: out now. But on April ninth, hopefully those local news

677
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: proprietors will be making it easy for you to find them.

678
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: All Right, it's my it's Wednesday. Let's do a top

679
00:40:55,840 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: five top five And I'm just going to go back

680
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: to basics here. But the premise of the top five

681
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,879
Speaker 1: list this week is the premise that I think now

682
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 1: it is official. I think in the moment we're in

683
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 1: at the moment and this, you know, it's very interesting

684
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: when it comes. I've always had this debate with my

685
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: friend Charlie Cook and the folk Namy Walter, the folks

686
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 1: over the Cook Report, folks at crystal Ball, the folks

687
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: inside elections, which is when you do your rankings, do

688
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: you do it trying to figure out it's based on

689
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: where you think the political environment is going to be

690
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 1: in November or where you are at the moment, right,

691
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: And I would say, you know, we all will say, well,

692
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: it's a hybrid, right, And that's where I am. It's

693
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 1: a hybrid. I think we are. I think this is

694
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: a political environment that is that is deteriorating quickly for Republicans. Right.

695
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: You now have the House and the Senate openly feuding

696
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 1: over how to resolve the DHS, the DHS funding crisis.

697
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: In fact, the fact that House Republicans and Senate Republicans

698
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 1: are completely different place on this has bailed out Democrats. Right.

699
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: I think now Republicans own this more at the moment

700
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: because the Senate Republicans passed something to do this, and

701
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: then the House Republicans, I guess, with a little bit

702
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump's encouragement, decided to tank it. And so

703
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,320
Speaker 1: now we're in this uncomfortable situation where yes, TSA employees

704
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 1: are kind of getting paid. But anyway, the point is

705
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 1: is that every week it seems, you know, this goes

706
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: back to the Haley barbarism that I've been quoting quite

707
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: a bit here for those of you that listen a lot,

708
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 1: and that as good gets better, bad gets worse. And

709
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 1: right now this political environment for Republicans bad is going

710
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 1: to worse. Right the Texas situation is not any better.

711
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 1: What looked like could be an opportunity for Republicans to

712
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 1: save a Senate seat down in Texas with John Cornyn unexpectedly,

713
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: you know, being the top vote getter in the first

714
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: round of voting, maybe they could convince Trump to endorse

715
00:42:56,280 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: Cornan over Paxton. While that ship is so right, the

716
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 1: Paxton folks have bought enough time. Now it looks like

717
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:05,879
Speaker 1: Trump's not going to do it, and we know Trump

718
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: will never back somebody he fears could lose and embarrass

719
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 1: him because you know, I think we're going to find out,

720
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 1: And my friend Jonathan Martin is a great piece about

721
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 1: how May is really going to be the month that

722
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 1: we learn how tight is Trump's grip on the Republican Party.

723
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: Can you run away from Trump. Can you criticize Trump

724
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: and survive in a primary? Right, It's going to be

725
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: tested all over the map. Thomas Massey is probably going

726
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 1: to be the first test. But that's I think we're

727
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 1: gonna we're going to We're going to start. That'll be

728
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: a big one. And if he succeeds, you're going to

729
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 1: start to see I think more Republicans feeling emboldened perhaps

730
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 1: to try to chart their own course, because you do

731
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: get to a point anytime when you're in a political

732
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 1: party where the national environment's going south on you. It

733
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 1: becomes every every member, especially on the incumbent side, every

734
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 1: incumbent for themselves. There's no longer, there's no more team player.

735
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 1: It is survival of the fittest, or survival of the

736
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:07,919
Speaker 1: of the of the fittest, might be the wrong way,

737
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 1: of the of the most pragmatists, or whatever you want

738
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: to call it, but the point is is everybody kicks

739
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: into survival mode and we may be in there. So

740
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 1: look with that, and you've seen this turn right, there

741
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: was a new norm, you know. So look Number one,

742
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: my top five list, top five Senate seats most likely

743
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 1: to flip, and the big news on my list this

744
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 1: week is there's not going to be a single republicancy

745
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: a Democratic health seat on my list, and the only

746
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: one that comes close is Michigan. But I will tell

747
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 1: you in a minute why I have no longer put

748
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 1: Michigan on that list. But number one continues, and in

749
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: fact I think it's number one, and there's actually some

750
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 1: space now, and that is North Carolina. There's I just

751
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,479
Speaker 1: saw a recent poll that had Cooper up eighteen points,

752
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 1: so I think he's up eighteen points. I don't, But

753
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,760
Speaker 1: the fact is it seems as if the gap is spreading,

754
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 1: it is not closing. You know. Michael Wattley, the form

755
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:01,879
Speaker 1: R and C chair, was already trying to do something,

756
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 1: and I think was quite hard to go directly from

757
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: being a national chair, the chair of a national party,

758
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 1: to try to win a Senate seat. Tim Kaine pulled

759
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: this off, but he was also a governor, a former governor,

760
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: so he had had some he had had some electoral experience.

761
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 1: It is much more difficult to basically make this your

762
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 1: first entree into into sort of state wide elect the

763
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 1: politics like that in general. But you're also you own

764
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: everything Trump, right, There is no way Whattley can be

765
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: independent of Trump under any circumstance, and you sort of

766
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 1: see it in the numbers. And Cooper doesn't have to

767
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: deal with a didn't have to deal with any sort

768
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:45,720
Speaker 1: of radical left and you know, anybody way to the left.

769
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 1: He didn't have to deal with even somebody you know

770
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 1: from the from further to his left, but maybe in

771
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: the mainstream liberal wing of the party. He didn't have

772
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 1: to deal with any of that. And if you can

773
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 1: avoid a primary in this environment as a Democrat in

774
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 1: a purple state like with Carolina, you're gonna have a

775
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: lot of room to run. So he's number one, and

776
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 1: arguably there is huge space now like that is I'm

777
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: almost at a at a seventy five percent confidence level

778
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 1: on that one. You can go take a look at

779
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: what polymarketer Calshier at and find out where the actual

780
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 1: money is. Number two continues to be made. And we've

781
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: seen even and I look, I'm going to keep it here.

782
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 1: At number two. We see the governor Janet Mills has

783
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 1: gone a bit scorched earth trying to salvage her you know,

784
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 1: we put it this way, her behavior going after Graham.

785
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: Platner confirms that all the polling is true, Platner is ahead,

786
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 1: and he's ahead by a lot. So the fact that

787
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 1: he's already ahead and he didn't really have much name

788
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 1: minded going into this thing and means it's going to

789
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:55,959
Speaker 1: be really hard for her to dislodg him, especially because

790
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 1: he has the resources to respond. You know a lot

791
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 1: of times, you know, an insurgent like Platner may catch fire,

792
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 1: but they don't really have the resources. Once the big

793
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: bad establishment machine sort of trains its negatived guns on you,

794
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 1: it's harder to recover. But he has enough resources to respond.

795
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:20,359
Speaker 1: I think he's done a reasonable job responding. And as

796
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 1: we see this is you know, when you're in environments

797
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 1: like this as a challenger, it is harder as an incumbent.

798
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 1: In some ways, both Janet Mills and Susan Collins are

799
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 1: incumbents in this situation. Right, One is a sitting governor,

800
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 1: one is a sitting senator. Graham Platner gets to be

801
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,240
Speaker 1: the outsider, whether he's running against in the primary against

802
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: Mills or he's running in the general against Susan Collins.

803
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 1: And if you want to make him the referendum, I

804
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 1: get why you want to do it. You try to

805
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 1: make his character referendum. The problem is, in a political

806
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 1: environment like this, the incumbents it's much harder for an

807
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 1: incumbent to change, to change the climate to where it's

808
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,360
Speaker 1: no longer a referendum on those in office. And I

809
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 1: think that's especially going to be difficult for Susan Collins,

810
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 1: but I think it's also a bit of a problem

811
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 1: for Janet Mills. But the fact of the matter is

812
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 1: it won't It may not matter which Democrat wins the primary.

813
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 1: Either one right now is ahead of Susan Collins, and

814
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 1: that's why it sits at number two. So number three

815
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 1: on my list is now Ohio because that is another thing.

816
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 1: And this is how you can see things deteriorating. Right,

817
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 1: you know, during the presidential election cycle, Shared Brown when

818
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: he was running in it's you know, he's now running

819
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 1: for the other Senate seat technically, right, he lost the

820
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 1: Senate c DL before he lost to Bernie Moreno, this

821
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,879
Speaker 1: is the special technically the special election to fill out

822
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 1: the rest of jd Vance's term after he became Vice president.

823
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: The appointed Republican senators John Houston. And look, when this

824
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: race began, you saw that the generic Republican advantage in

825
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: Ohio was holding and Houston would be up by a

826
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: couple of points. And to me with somebody as well

827
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 1: known as Shared Brown, if you're trailing somebody who's less

828
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: known than you, yes, Houston has run statewide himself, was

829
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: the elected secretary of state, been a running mate, all

830
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 1: of those things. Shared Brown's you know, probably had more

831
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: than a billion dollars of tv ads run on his

832
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 1: behalf of just in just this decade, right in the

833
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 1: multiple time, basically since twenty eighteen. So he's a far

834
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 1: more well known figure in Ohio than John Houston is.

835
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: But this is where I've seen that the biggest change

836
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: in any in sort of the political climate has been

837
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,879
Speaker 1: with the start of this around war, the negative view

838
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 1: that many voters have, particularly independence in the middle throwing

839
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: the impact on the economy, and now all of the

840
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 1: polling has started to show Democrats taking a small lead Ohio.

841
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: That is hugely significant. You already have a very good

842
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 1: challenger candidate here. Look, my skepticism on Brown is still

843
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 1: there that it's tough to be a challenger when you've

844
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 1: been sort of in office as long as he has.

845
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:22,320
Speaker 1: But if the bigger issue is the economy and Trump.

846
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if the Republicans are going

847
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 1: to make this a referendum on share Brown. They had

848
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:30,879
Speaker 1: a better they did it, they did a better job.

849
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 1: It was an easier thing for them to do in

850
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 1: twenty four. It's gonna be a little harder now. And

851
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 1: again the national political environment you sort of feel it

852
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 1: hasn't bottom, hasn't felt fallen yet, but you can hear

853
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:47,439
Speaker 1: the cracks. And that's what this war has done, right.

854
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: It has sort of weakened the floor that Republicans are

855
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 1: currently standing on, and there's every chance it could sink

856
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 1: down the level sooner than we think. So Ohio, number

857
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 1: three on list of most likely to flip. Number four

858
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 1: is Alaska, and we've seen Mary Patola again, she's somebody

859
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: else that appears to be starting in a strong position.

860
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 1: I still I think this race is a coin flip

861
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 1: at best. But I you know, and I am you know,

862
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 1: there is a chance that Alaska short term economy might

863
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 1: benefit from the rising cost of energy in some ways.

864
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 1: That can happen sometimes to a state that is exporter

865
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:40,400
Speaker 1: of oil and gas. So you know, I don't I

866
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 1: don't want to fully characterize the economy yet in what

867
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 1: it's going to feel like or look like in Alaska,

868
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 1: because it might be unique and different given the current

869
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:53,120
Speaker 1: circumstances that we're in. But we've already seen early polling

870
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:57,239
Speaker 1: indicating Popolo starts an extraordinarily strong position here. I think

871
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 1: Dan Selvin's going to be hard to magify, if you will.

872
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: But because you have Lisa Murkowski sitting there as a

873
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 1: sort of closer to being a true independent in the Senate,

874
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 1: I think by comparison, he certainly looks more trumpy than

875
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:15,239
Speaker 1: certainly Lisa Murkowski. And then I think the question is

876
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:17,839
Speaker 1: what is number five on the list? What is the

877
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: fifth most likely to flip? And I think at this

878
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 1: point I'm going to say it's Nebraska. And this is

879
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 1: going to be a bit of the surprise. But let

880
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 1: me explain why I think Nebraska and Dan Osborne winning

881
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 1: as an independent and what kind what that could mean.

882
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 1: Some of you may think, oh, it's just wishful thinking

883
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 1: that I want to see sort of both parties get

884
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: challenged here from a third way, from an independent way. Yes,

885
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 1: it's true. I think both parties need to need a

886
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: disruption from the outside as much as they're trying to

887
00:52:53,600 --> 00:53:01,080
Speaker 1: disrupt each other internally. But my skepticism. Look, I think

888
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 1: Pete Ricketts is no debt Fisher, and I don't mean

889
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 1: that to not debt Fisher, But I think Ricketts is

890
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: going to be is already a bit more prepared for

891
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 1: this campaign, is probably going to drop more oppo on

892
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 1: Osborne than Fisher ever did she waited too long? So,

893
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 1: But again, when you're the incumbent and you're having to

894
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: defend a really bad political environment, it is harder to

895
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 1: turn your challenger into to create a referendum on the challenger.

896
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 1: It's not impossible. And Ricketts has some deep pockets and

897
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 1: has even his own money potentially if he chooses to

898
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: use it. His father TD Ameritrade at least a piece

899
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: of that version of the company before it merged with

900
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: some other aspects of it. But there's some deep financial

901
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 1: pockets there. But I think this political environment presents Osborne

902
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 1: an even stronger opportunity to win than the presidential environment did. Right.

903
00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 1: First of all, presidential turnout Nebraska made it even harder

904
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,919
Speaker 1: for him, I think, to overcome. But the other thing

905
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 1: that is still going to be a difficult thing for

906
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:08,759
Speaker 1: him to overcome is this idea of well, if he's

907
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 1: running against Ricketts, it means he doesn't want Republicans control

908
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 1: the Senate. So by default, Dan Osborne, does that mean

909
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: you want Democrats and Chuck Schumer to run the Senate?

910
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 1: How he answers that question, and how he answers that

911
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 1: question throughout the campaign is going to matter a lot

912
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: and his ability to win. If I were in issues

913
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: and I kept getting asked that question, so which party

914
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,359
Speaker 1: you're going to caucus with? He goes, Look, I don't

915
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:33,439
Speaker 1: you know the easy answers. I don't want Donald Trump

916
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 1: running the Senate. I don't want Chuck Schumer running the Senate.

917
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 1: I know, when I get elected, I'm going to you know,

918
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,800
Speaker 1: I'm going to pull together the true independence of the Senate,

919
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski, Angus King, and whoever wants to be in

920
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 1: this independent caucus. And I'm going to try to start

921
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:52,399
Speaker 1: an independent caucus, and We're going to make the two

922
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: parties make their case to us as a group as

923
00:54:56,600 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 1: to which party ought to run the Senate. And I

924
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 1: think short of a response like that, there's that Osborne

925
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 1: is going to have a hard time convincing. Maybe somebody

926
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 1: who's not a big Rickets fan, maybe not a big

927
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 1: thuon Er Trump fan, but doesn't want to see Chuck

928
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:22,799
Speaker 1: Schumer in charge of the Senate. Right to me, that's

929
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 1: the voter. Osborne's got to figure out how to talk

930
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 1: to and how to convince that he's serious about being

931
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 1: an independant. And that's certainly how I would convey my

932
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 1: seriousness about being an independent and basically saying, you know,

933
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:38,799
Speaker 1: my goal is not to pick either side. My goal

934
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 1: is to work with the Common Sense Center or the

935
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:45,359
Speaker 1: common sense senators and we'll decide. You know, we don't

936
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,839
Speaker 1: want to be sucked up, right, you know, right now

937
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 1: Trump and Schumer this is this is part of the problem.

938
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:54,319
Speaker 1: And if he can get to a message like that,

939
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 1: and I think he has a better shot at getting

940
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 1: to a message like that than many other candidates running,

941
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 1: then I think that's a recipe there. So for that reason,

942
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:09,400
Speaker 1: I am putting Nebraska in the five slot there at

943
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 1: this point. Now for this first time, I haven't put

944
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: Michigan in the top five. And you ask why is that?

945
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: Because I think the Michigan candidate that is hardest for

946
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:20,440
Speaker 1: Republicans to defeat is Mallory McMorrow. And by the way,

947
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:22,439
Speaker 1: I've had people mentioned to me that I keep calling

948
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 1: her Molly McMorrow. That is one hundred percent accurate in

949
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 1: my head. I keep calling her Molly instead of Mallory.

950
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 1: Mallory McMorrow. My apologies to you. Maybe this is why

951
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:38,319
Speaker 1: we haven't gotten you on yet, I tease. But I

952
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,720
Speaker 1: think the fact that her candidacy is getting more traction

953
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 1: more polling is showing her getting more traction. I think

954
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 1: she is probably the nominee that is best suited to

955
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 1: unify what is a very splinter Democratic primary. Right. Haley

956
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 1: Stephens sort of the Schumer candidate, Abdulsi ed the Elizabeth

957
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 1: Warren Bernie Sanders candidate, and there's Mallory McMorrow sort of

958
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 1: straddling the fence there. But I think in some ways

959
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 1: she has leaned into being the outsider, and outsider is

960
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 1: better I think than being establishment or Warren Sanders, progressive, right,

961
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 1: outsider and independent. To me is what are the best

962
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 1: descriptors to be to be a candidate in twenty twenty six.

963
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:24,640
Speaker 1: I would not say being progressive or conservative or I

964
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 1: don't think those are the best adjectives to want to

965
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 1: have as a candidate. Outsider, independent, I think those are

966
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 1: the words that the swing voters of twenty twenty six

967
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 1: are going to be looked for. Ask Chuck, Hey, Chuck,

968
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 1: this comes from Chase, who I think is the person

969
00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 1: who invented the ash Chuck five timer club. So he

970
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 1: is I think I'm going to make him president. You

971
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 1: don't have to just hashtag in anymore. Chase, you are

972
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 1: you are? You are the president of the ass Chuck

973
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: five timer Club. And he asks, Hey Chuck, as the

974
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 1: ranking echoes himself the ranking member, not the chair. But

975
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm making a president. I reserve the right

976
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 1: to lob the occasional tinfoil hat question. Those are the

977
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 1: rules I wrote them. I could amend them at will.

978
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: So what exactly is going on with all the alien

979
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 1: talk lately? Between Obamas who knows, Trump talking about declassifying everything,

980
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 1: jad Van saying aliens might be demons, and Rubio talking

981
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 1: about possible long term cover ups. It feels like extraterrestrials

982
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 1: suddenly became a bipartisan talking point. So actually something driving

983
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:33,480
Speaker 1: this wave of UFO UAP chatter or is this just

984
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: the world's strangest recurring political subplot best regards? I have

985
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 1: to tell you, I you know, I'm one of those

986
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 1: who believe, who believes that we're not alone. By the way,

987
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with the Three Body that I think the

988
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 1: premise of the TV show on Netflix called the Three

989
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: Body Problem. I think it is, which come on Netflix.

990
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 1: I want my next season. It's been a while. I

991
00:58:55,400 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 1: know it's in a very expensive and my friend Mark

992
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 1: Murray read all the novels and he says they're fantast stick.

993
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: At some point I may delve into myself. But the

994
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 1: premise of that one is we find out sort of,

995
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 1: you know, almost a couple generations in advance, that these

996
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 1: aliens are coming, but it's going to take them a while, right,

997
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 1: And so it is, you know, I buy, let you know,

998
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 1: I buy the idea that maybe some of these things

999
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 1: we see might be probes or something, but they're probably

1000
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:28,120
Speaker 1: not people. They probably were coming from another entity that

1001
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:30,440
Speaker 1: are just in the same way we send out you know,

1002
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:33,919
Speaker 1: if we're sending out telescopes to go look at far

1003
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:38,200
Speaker 1: off galaxies, if there is another civilization of sorts out

1004
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 1: there or another species, they're likely doing the same thing, right,

1005
00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 1: So the odds, right, I don't know, can we bet

1006
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 1: on this on Calchier polymarket. I think the odds are

1007
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: in the ninety five percent area that there is there

1008
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 1: is extra terrestrial life outside the Earth. But I don't,

1009
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 1: you know, wh all the increased chatter really hasn't added

1010
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 1: I'm with you, it hasn't added any new information other

1011
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:11,080
Speaker 1: than oh okay. So it looks like the military and

1012
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 1: the government have been keeping track of any time members

1013
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 1: of the military think they see something they can't identify,

1014
01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 1: but it hasn't really added to anything, right, So I

1015
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 1: count myself on you know, I think the movie Contact

1016
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 1: and the TV show Three Body Problem, I think are

1017
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 1: the ones that best. I think that you know, I'm

1018
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 1: in many ways. Contact was based on sort of Carl

1019
01:00:41,120 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 1: Sagan theories, right I am. I find myself in that

1020
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 1: camp where the aliens are just going to show up

1021
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 1: one day. We're going to get years in advance and

1022
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 1: sort of see this coming. The question is do we

1023
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 1: see it coming in time? And are they benevolent or malevolent?

1024
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 1: But I'm with you, I think all of the chatter

1025
01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 1: is it's sort of self fulfilling, right, because the government's

1026
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:14,200
Speaker 1: released a few more details, more people ask people that

1027
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: used to be in government about it, and more people

1028
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 1: that used to be in government feel more comfortable talking

1029
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: about it, but they don't have any more information really

1030
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 1: than any of us ever did. Next question comes from

1031
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:27,800
Speaker 1: Dean from Long Island. He says, Hey, I understand your

1032
01:01:27,840 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: point that you can't win a race to the Bob,

1033
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 1: and I generally agree with your approach, but I sometimes

1034
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 1: wonder if what we're seeing now feels less like a

1035
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:36,640
Speaker 1: race and more like a survival moment politically, if one

1036
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 1: side feels like the rules are being rewritten, is it's

1037
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 1: still possible to play by the old rules and complete

1038
01:01:41,200 --> 01:01:43,440
Speaker 1: and compete effectively. At what point does the old playbook

1039
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 1: stop working and something else become necessary. Look, I get,

1040
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 1: I understand what you're saying, and I will just say

1041
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 1: that that history's lesson is when you do try to

1042
01:01:56,040 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 1: sort of change your principles to fit a moment because

1043
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 1: you're trying to survive a moment, it is very hard

1044
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 1: to get back to where you were on the principal

1045
01:02:06,120 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 1: side of things. And so I mean, I think I'm

1046
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 1: guessing you're more writing about sort of my stubbornness about

1047
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 1: this Virginia remap, which I just think is again this

1048
01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 1: political environment right now it's six'. Five the first and

1049
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:28,520
Speaker 1: the second in this political environment would both, flip so

1050
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:31,000
Speaker 1: we'd be at a three without changing the map at.

1051
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 1: All Virginia, Democrats so now you're going through this entire.

1052
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 1: Rigmarole you're basically burning whatever political capital out Of Abigails

1053
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:44,120
Speaker 1: bamberger got for two extra, seats not five extra, seats

1054
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 1: not four extra. Seats two extra. Seats that's a lot

1055
01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 1: of political capital for two extra. Seats that may not

1056
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:55,680
Speaker 1: be that. Meaningful, look if it turns Out democrats win

1057
01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 1: by five or, less Then virginia And california bailed the party.

1058
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 1: Out but it's not as if if that's How democrats

1059
01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 1: win The, house that's no. Mandate that's you, know that's

1060
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:13,200
Speaker 1: not effective. Control that's technical, control but it's not effective.

1061
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 1: Control and it doesn't mean the voters really were affirming

1062
01:03:16,360 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 1: For democrats control The. House it was, basically you, know

1063
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 1: anything less than five seats is just sort of a

1064
01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 1: race by race. Contest so look what you, describe, right

1065
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:41,080
Speaker 1: that is that's the judgment. Call BUT i think if you,

1066
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:43,440
Speaker 1: want you, know it all comes through short, termism long,

1067
01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:48,920
Speaker 1: termism AND i just think the unintended consequences of of

1068
01:03:49,160 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 1: essentially being a, party AND, i you, know this IS

1069
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:54,120
Speaker 1: i get at this a little. BIT i don't think

1070
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 1: we're ready to move on from this moment we're living.

1071
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:02,680
Speaker 1: IN i you, KNOW i sort OF i went deeper

1072
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 1: on My monday monologue about talking about sort of comparing

1073
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:08,760
Speaker 1: the era Between jackson And lincoln to the era we're

1074
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 1: living in now and how long it took us we

1075
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:14,040
Speaker 1: had seven presidents that basically refused to deal with the

1076
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 1: actual divide that was the issue that was actually dividing,

1077
01:04:17,640 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 1: us which was. Slavery in this era of, polarization we

1078
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 1: don't seem to be dealing with the issue that we're

1079
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:25,720
Speaker 1: actually all arguing, about which is who's An american and

1080
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:30,080
Speaker 1: who should be An? American and what Is? America and

1081
01:04:32,000 --> 01:04:37,320
Speaker 1: until we confront that issue head, ON i don't you,

1082
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 1: know all these little things we do to game the

1083
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 1: situation on the left right to try to win power just,

1084
01:04:44,200 --> 01:04:48,680
Speaker 1: delays just puts that, large that confrontation and that issue

1085
01:04:48,720 --> 01:04:51,800
Speaker 1: off yet another election cycle or. Two SO i guess

1086
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 1: my longer term answer to your point here, Is, dinas

1087
01:04:56,760 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 1: this certainly allows you to deal with the omit on firmer,

1088
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:10,080
Speaker 1: ground but it ain't a. Solution i'm gonna take one

1089
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:13,080
Speaker 1: more question and THEN i unfortunately we're gonna have to

1090
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:14,840
Speaker 1: put this. One we don't want to go too long

1091
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:18,640
Speaker 1: on these. Things last question comes From Scott turner And. Oregon, Hey,

1092
01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 1: CHUCK i listen to your podcast at the. Gym sweating

1093
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:24,440
Speaker 1: around oldies right rather than to, them helps take my

1094
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 1: mind off of how much tougher it is to age

1095
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 1: at my. Age my question has to do with how

1096
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:30,440
Speaker 1: media outlets handle political. Lies how often ay reporters say

1097
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 1: there's no evidence for those, claims which makes it sound

1098
01:05:32,440 --> 01:05:34,680
Speaker 1: like the claims might still be true instead of just.

1099
01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 1: False why don't journalists more directly call lies what they?

1100
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:39,280
Speaker 1: Are and how do reporters keep a straight face when

1101
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 1: they hear obviously ridiculous Answers, also happy. Baseball your current

1102
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:45,360
Speaker 1: Nets travail's remind me of being an early nineteen Eighties

1103
01:05:45,360 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: Oaklan aes fan in nearly empty. Stadiums thanks to all

1104
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,840
Speaker 1: you do Is Scott Seed. Turner Scott Seed, Turner. Oregon,

1105
01:05:51,920 --> 01:05:59,880
Speaker 1: look it is always you. KNOW i think you better

1106
01:05:59,880 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 1: be careful when you call somebody a, liar because you

1107
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:09,960
Speaker 1: know they may truly believe something that isn't. True lying

1108
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 1: implies sort of, intent, right and how do you? Know

1109
01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 1: can you crawl inside their head and know that they

1110
01:06:15,600 --> 01:06:20,160
Speaker 1: are intentionally misleading you or there or you. Know so

1111
01:06:20,280 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 1: that's why you see so many journalists sort of couch.

1112
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:27,680
Speaker 1: IT i think even in the infamous EXCHANGE i had

1113
01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:30,320
Speaker 1: With kelly And conway And meet The press alternative, FACTS i,

1114
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 1: said those are, falsehoods AND I, i you, KNOW i

1115
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:35,240
Speaker 1: lost a little sleep wondering SHOULD i said lies are?

1116
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:38,480
Speaker 1: Falsehoods AND i think when you use the word, lie

1117
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:42,120
Speaker 1: you immediately put somebody on the, defensive and then you

1118
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:45,280
Speaker 1: get to the point where you're no longer having an you,

1119
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 1: KNOW i am more interested, in, well why do you think?

1120
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 1: That where did you get your? Information AND i think

1121
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:52,080
Speaker 1: that that's the better way to, go because then you

1122
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:58,440
Speaker 1: find out how somebody came to believe what they. Espoused

1123
01:06:59,120 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 1: AND i think the role of the journalists rolled in

1124
01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:05,480
Speaker 1: should be more of trying to understand why did you say?

1125
01:07:05,520 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 1: That where did you get your? Information that's where the

1126
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 1: interrogation should go and to help the viewer understand why

1127
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:22,680
Speaker 1: they're misleading in that. Moment but, look it's A that's

1128
01:07:22,720 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 1: the WAY i viewed it is THAT i didn't want

1129
01:07:24,840 --> 01:07:27,960
Speaker 1: to chase people. AWAY i wanted everybody in the. Conversation

1130
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:35,760
Speaker 1: so that's why you sometimes you, know WE'RE i don't

1131
01:07:35,760 --> 01:07:37,920
Speaker 1: want to say we're playing umpire, referee but it's sort

1132
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 1: of a little bit more in that territory where if

1133
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 1: you start throwing, out you, know all of a, sudden

1134
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:49,360
Speaker 1: we're the debate participant versus being the debate. Moderator SO

1135
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 1: i guess that's the. Line that's certainly the LINE i

1136
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 1: was hugging all the, time which is why some people

1137
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:56,000
Speaker 1: loved it and some people hated. It AND i understand.

1138
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:59,920
Speaker 1: That all. Right with, that you're going to see me

1139
01:07:59,920 --> 01:08:03,440
Speaker 1: in forty eight hours on twenty eight four, hours as you, know,

1140
01:08:03,560 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 1: tonight first night Of, passover SO i will be dropping

1141
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:12,200
Speaker 1: my next episode not On, thursday but On, friday and with,

1142
01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:14,000
Speaker 1: that i'll see in forty eight hours