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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Lounge presented by DraftKings. We are on

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Speaker 1: the playoff bye week, which is the best bye week

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Speaker 1: of all and the Ravens are sitting here waiting to

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Speaker 1: see who they're gonna play, and we're gonna break all

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Speaker 1: that down today, Garrett the pluses and minuses of the

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Speaker 1: possible playoff matchups. And then on the second half of

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Speaker 1: the podcast, we're gonna hear from Aaron Shotts, the creator

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Speaker 1: of DVOA who works for FTN Fantasy. He's gonna stop

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Speaker 1: in to talk to us about just how good this

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Speaker 1: Ravens team is.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he'll provide some analytical historical contexts. We've referenced DVOA

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Speaker 2: plenty of times that there's a lot of talk about

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Speaker 2: it going into that game against the forty nine ers,

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Speaker 2: and it's a It's an interesting conversation with him that

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Speaker 2: I think fans will really enjoy because it gives some

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Speaker 2: really good perspective on honestly, just how good this team is. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's one of the best teams ever from a regular

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Speaker 2: season standpoint.

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Speaker 1: And of course we got to put the you know,

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Speaker 1: the really smart people. We got to put him on

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Speaker 1: the hot seat and asking him we're gonna win it all.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, so we do that. We will do that

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Speaker 2: with Aaron.

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Speaker 1: So all right, well, let's start this off with the

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Speaker 1: conversation about who the Ravens might face in the Visional

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Speaker 1: Playoffs before we get to the super Bowl. Got to

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Speaker 1: take care of the Visional Playoffs. So it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: one of four teams. It's either the Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns,

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, or Pittsburgh Steelers. Okay, let's go through it

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Speaker 1: and say what we like about each matchup for the

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Speaker 1: Ravens and maybe what we don't like about each of

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Speaker 1: these matchups.

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Speaker 2: All right, so we'll start with the all just to

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Speaker 2: lay out the lay it out a little bit more,

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Speaker 2: just set the table a little bit more. The Ravens

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Speaker 2: face the lowest seed coming out of the wildcard round.

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Speaker 2: So the lowest of those seeds is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 2: If the Steelers win, that's who the Ravens are facing.

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Speaker 2: The Dolphins are the sixth seed, the Browns are the

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Speaker 2: five seed, the Texans are the fourth seeds. So whoever

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Speaker 2: is the lowest seed is who the Ravens will face.

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Speaker 2: You don't actually get the pick, Yeah, all right, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we'll go a guess those guys no, And it's also

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Speaker 2: it's they recede, you know, it's not like the bracket

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Speaker 2: is set right now. It gets receded after this round.

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Speaker 2: So again the Ravens face the lowest seed. So if

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Speaker 2: it's shocked, if all the if all the top four seeds,

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Speaker 2: top three seeds win this weekend, it would be the

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Speaker 2: Houston Texans coming to town for a playoff matchup, rematch

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Speaker 2: of the week one game between these two teams. So

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Speaker 2: let's just start the conversation. I think with Houston, sure,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think it's a much different Houston team

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Speaker 2: than the Ravens saw Week one. That was the first

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Speaker 2: game of the season, first career start for CJ. Stroud.

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Speaker 2: He's gone on and had a terrific rookie season. Probably's

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Speaker 2: gonna win Rookie of the Year. And I think what

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Speaker 2: I like about that matchup is that it's still a

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback and a team that you know, getting to

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Speaker 2: the playoffs was a massive success for that team, and

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Speaker 2: so it's tough then as a young team with a

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback. I think to go on a run, go

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Speaker 2: to a super Bowl Historically speaking, I don't think that

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Speaker 2: happens with teams like that very often. And so I

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Speaker 2: like the Ravens defense against a rookie quarterback, even though

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Speaker 2: at this point of the season he's played a full year.

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Speaker 2: That's what I like about that matchup there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would agree, now, I would push

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Speaker 1: back a little bit. Once CJ. Stroud has one playoff

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Speaker 1: game under his belt, I think it's a little bit different, right,

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Speaker 1: Like he's been in that environment now now I think

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Speaker 1: it's fair to say certainly that no environment's going to

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Speaker 1: be necessarily like empty Bank Stadium. Yeah, road environment's different, certainly,

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Speaker 1: but you know he will have that under his belt.

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Speaker 1: For me, the matchup with the Houston Texans really comes

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Speaker 1: down to this is a defense that's really kind of

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Speaker 1: middle of the pack, the Texans defense right now. Will

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Speaker 1: Anderson's been a little bit banged up. I think that

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Speaker 1: you have some shots they're missing there there without their

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Speaker 1: rookie stud rookie wide receiver who got injured me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Tank Dell, I mean a speed guy exactly.

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Speaker 1: Tank Dell's not there now. Nico Collins has been really

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Speaker 1: good for them, is a top ten receiver in terms

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Speaker 1: of the yards. But to me, yeah, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: an inexperienced scene with a not elite defense that would

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Speaker 1: be coming to Empty Banks Stadium. The Ravens already beat

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Speaker 1: him twenty three to nine. Like you said, that was

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Speaker 1: Week one. A lot of time has passed, but that's

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Speaker 1: how it was twenty five to nine in Week one.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that outside of c J. Stroud, that

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Speaker 1: the Texans have a player that I say, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: I'm really concerned about that specific player now CJ. Stroud.

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Speaker 1: It starts at the quarterback, and I think he's been really,

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Speaker 1: really good, really good. But yeah, that's that's how I mean. Look, CJ.

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Speaker 2: Shaw is a great player, and I think he's going

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Speaker 2: to be I think he's already established himself as a

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Speaker 2: top tier.

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Speaker 1: Quarter passing yards this year's missing a couple games, I.

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Speaker 2: Think he's already set himself into the category of the

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Speaker 2: upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL, and as if

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Speaker 2: he continues to progress, he could establish himself as as

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Speaker 2: one of the very best of the league. So I

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Speaker 2: think he's a I think he is a sud and

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Speaker 2: he scares me because he can get hot and they

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Speaker 2: can put up some points, and I think he's a

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Speaker 2: pretty fearless player, so I think that he's not going

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Speaker 2: to be scared of the moment that There's never been

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Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback that's won a super Bowl or gone

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Speaker 2: to a super Bowl. So I so just from a

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Speaker 2: very big picture standpoint, it's tough to think of a

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback coming in here and winning that game and

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Speaker 2: then ultimately, you know, potentially get into a super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: So I just don't really see that happening from a

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Speaker 2: big picture standpoint with them. But you know, that's what

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Speaker 2: scares me about them is is his a bit like

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Speaker 2: he's just a great player. I mean, what what what

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Speaker 2: makes you feel good about facing them is also the

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Speaker 2: same thing that scares me about them.

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Speaker 1: Which is good?

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Speaker 2: Is it all centers around the quarterback and like he

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Speaker 2: is a fearless player, who is a rookie who like

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Speaker 2: won't be you know, sometimes, like we talked about that

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen Ravens team, I think that like they were

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Speaker 2: so good a naive at times that like sometimes you

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Speaker 2: just out there playing. That may be what's going on

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Speaker 2: with them as well, that you're not caught up in

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Speaker 2: the pressure and all that stuff, or it can go

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Speaker 2: the other way where all of a sudden, you're in

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Speaker 2: the playoff moment, you're feeling the heat and your young

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Speaker 2: player that's never been through it. It can go either way,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not sure exactly how it will go for them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, obviously, the Texans are not a team

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Speaker 1: that were picked to to make the playoffs when the

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Speaker 1: season began. They've had a fantastic season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and to make a Ryan's good young coach, probably

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Speaker 2: could be Coach of the Year, potentially.

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Speaker 1: Definitely have a lot of respect for him. They're a

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Speaker 1: good team. I think that the Houston Texans that would

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Speaker 1: be a tough matchup for the Ravens and be a

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Speaker 1: really good game.

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Speaker 2: I mean, here's the thing you're playing. We'll say they're

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Speaker 2: a good team. Probably about all these teams like this

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Speaker 2: is you're in the playoffs, your second round of the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: You're going to face a good team.

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Speaker 1: Exactly. So, all right, Cleveland Browns, I think we know

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Speaker 1: where to start this cover.

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Speaker 2: Is there a storyline that would be part of this

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Speaker 2: if it comes to fruition.

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Speaker 1: Just a little bit, just a little bit. So again,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is similar to me to the Texans conversation.

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Speaker 1: The quarterback is almost the reason that I like the

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Speaker 1: matchup for the Ravens and also the reason that I

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Speaker 1: don't like the matchup for the Ravens. I think that

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Speaker 1: the Ravens pass rush would give they would put some

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Speaker 1: heat on Joe Flacco. Yeah, we know Joe fla He's

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Speaker 1: a pocket passer. Yes he can you know, crazy legs, Joe.

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Speaker 1: He can get out and get you every one, that's all.

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Speaker 1: But he's not going too primarily. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: this pass rush could create problems for Joe Flacco. He's

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Speaker 1: also turned the ball over a fair amount of times

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Speaker 1: here down the stretch. The Browns have not faced the Lakes.

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Speaker 1: You know, Joe's had an incredible run. This run, He's

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Speaker 1: been on his magical it's been storybooked all that stuff.

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Speaker 1: They have not have faced the team like the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Down the stretch they faced. Joe beat a struggling Jaguars

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Speaker 1: team that stumbled badly down the final stretch of the season.

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Speaker 1: The Bears, now, they went one in Houston. Yeah, CJ. Stroud,

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Speaker 1: I mean correct, So that changed the game a lot. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and then the Jets.

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Speaker 2: And the Bears win came down to the wire all.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Bears honestly had the game winning touchdown

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Speaker 2: and Theirs on Darnell Moody, dropped it. I think that

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Speaker 2: the Joe's storyline would be everybody would be talking about.

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Speaker 2: It would be similar to what is going on this

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Speaker 2: week with Matthew Stafford going back to Detroit and everyone

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Speaker 2: talking about that. I think that it's been like fun

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Speaker 2: to watch from a distance, and I think that most

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Speaker 2: Ravens fans, myself included, have like cheered Joe on since

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Speaker 2: he's left here, wanting him to do well, But like

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Speaker 2: those good feelings kind of go out the window now

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Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, it's a playoff game and

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Speaker 2: he could be coming in here. I think, like from

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Speaker 2: a very excess and no standpoint, I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: I think the Ravens defense would give him problems. What

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Speaker 2: scares me about that is that Joe's basically playing fearless

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Speaker 2: like he's thirty nine years old. He was sat on

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Speaker 2: his couch all year wait for an opportunity. He got

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Speaker 2: the opportunity. He's basically you know what, I'm just gonna

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Speaker 2: let it rip. I'm going out there, I'm taking shots

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Speaker 2: down the field to a Mark Cooper. I'm putting guys

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Speaker 2: in position, which is what he did when he was

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Speaker 2: at his best here in that playoff runt. He gave

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Speaker 2: an Kwon Bolden and Tory Smith opportunity to make plays

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Speaker 2: down the field and they did. And that's what he's

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Speaker 2: doing in Cleveland. And he's a really good fit for

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Speaker 2: that offense, which is basically another version of the Kubiak

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Speaker 2: offense where he was excellent here in twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 1: The question is, is Joe on the same heater that

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Speaker 1: he was on in twenty twelve? Is he on that

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Speaker 1: kind of a heater? Is the question now? In that

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Speaker 1: in that stretch he barely turned the ball over. Yeah, yeah, right.

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Speaker 1: He's thrown seven picks in four games since becoming the

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Speaker 1: starter for the Browns, so.

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Speaker 2: It's gunslinger mentality a little different.

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Speaker 1: Yeah right. I have a feeling that the Ravens, a

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Speaker 1: team that lead the league and take takeaways, tied with

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Speaker 1: the New York Giants, would get some on Joe. If

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Speaker 1: he's going to come into that game fearless like that,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna get him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that if it ends up being a

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Speaker 2: Ravens Browns game, I could totally see a stat line

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Speaker 2: for Joe at the end of it, which is like

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Speaker 2: thirty of forty for two hundred and eighty rs, two touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: two picks, and then it's a matter of like what

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Speaker 2: you do with those takeaways and all that.

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Speaker 1: Right, my gut about that matchup, says the Ravens in

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Speaker 1: the first three quarters could make it not that close,

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Speaker 1: and I would feel fine about it. I feel great

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Speaker 1: about that if it's close late in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: I've seen how this story goes, and I don't really

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Speaker 1: want any parts of that.

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Speaker 2: Well, the other factor two for the Browns, I mean,

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Speaker 2: Joe would be the main point of conversation, but the

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Speaker 2: other point too is every great defense. Miles Garrett is

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Speaker 2: a best player and concerns.

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Speaker 1: The most about this match.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like they've got they've got a great defense. Now,

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Speaker 2: the Ravens have put up points on them into two

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Speaker 2: games this year. They split those games. Now, the first one,

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't know that first one got out

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Speaker 2: of hand quickly with the quarterback situation. Deshaun Watson played

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Speaker 2: a great game the second time that they faced off,

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Speaker 2: But the Ravens have put up points in both of

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Speaker 2: those games. But Still it's a great defense. Miles Garrett

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Speaker 2: has gotten to Lamar Jackson a lot, so they could

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Speaker 2: make life difficult on this offense.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens scored twenty eight points in their first meeting

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Speaker 1: and thirty one in their second. The Ravens really they're

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Speaker 1: up two touchdowns on them in the second meeting and

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Speaker 1: crazy pick six on the Browns part to come back.

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Speaker 1: But that's a good defense. Miles Garrett can cause problems.

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Speaker 1: He can wreck games. Zadarius Smith. You know they have

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Speaker 1: the pass rush that can cause problems for the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: I think offensively for the Ravens, the biggest question still

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Speaker 1: is their pass protection on the edges. Yeah, and the

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Speaker 1: Browns can make life hell for you if you don't

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Speaker 1: account for that. The Ravens have done a pretty good

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Speaker 1: job in their first two games, but it's always the

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Speaker 1: question mark, right, and so I think that their defense

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Speaker 1: can in a potential matchup, would concern me more necessarily

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Speaker 1: than Joe would concern me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's the whole package. I think that

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Speaker 2: also he is. I just think that with the way

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Speaker 2: they want to play offensively, they want to have a

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Speaker 2: good running game to take shots down the field. Like

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Speaker 2: he's a perfect fit in that offense.

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Speaker 1: Right. Their running game is really what's kind of got

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Speaker 1: the Ravens in the second match. So that's been if

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Speaker 1: we're talking about the Achilles Seal of the Ravens defense,

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Speaker 1: it's been against the run.

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Speaker 2: I know the media person in me is rooting for

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Speaker 2: the for the Joe rematch just because it's a great storyline.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I the truth is that, like I

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Speaker 2: don't know that I want to see that game. I

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Speaker 2: just like, there's it's it's just just I don't that

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Speaker 2: that one all of the Like, it would just be

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Speaker 2: too weird. It would be too weird. I prefer not

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Speaker 2: to see it all right. So the next one possibility

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Speaker 2: is Miami. So Miami. Obviously we just saw this game.

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Speaker 2: Ravens blew him out, so you feel good about it

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Speaker 2: from that standpoint, we just saw this. The flip side

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Speaker 2: is they were with out Jayalen Model, they were without Raheemoster.

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Speaker 2: Those guys could likely be back and if they win

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Speaker 2: that if we see if it's if it's the Dolphins,

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Speaker 2: then they will have just gone into Kansas City and

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Speaker 2: beaten the Chiefs. That would be a pretty remarkable win

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Speaker 2: for them. And they would be the momentum around that

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Speaker 2: team would be much different than it is right now.

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Speaker 1: I honestly don't. Yeah, I don't like that matchup, and

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Speaker 1: I know that the Ravens just smoked him, But like

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Speaker 1: that game would have been pretty different at the start.

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Speaker 1: I think it had Tyreek Hill caught a gimme of

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Speaker 1: a touchdown pass, the Ravens would have been behind early

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Speaker 1: in that game. And that was similar a little bit

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Speaker 1: to the forty nine Ers game where all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: what was a close game, you get bang bang, turnover,

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Speaker 1: quick score, and all of a sudden, it was really

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Speaker 1: lopsided in it. It just didn't feel lopsided the whole time. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that offense, I still think is a can perform at

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Speaker 1: an an elite level. They're really banged up on defense

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Speaker 1: right now. I mean, they just signed Justin Houston off

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Speaker 1: the street.

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Speaker 2: He basically replacing Bradley Schob who went down at the

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Speaker 2: end of our game.

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Speaker 1: Right They had more injuries since then Van van Gingle

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Speaker 1: went down, so they're really banged up defensively. The question

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Speaker 1: I think is health and whether they can just turn

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Speaker 1: around this momentum. Like you said, in Kansas City, if

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Speaker 1: they go out there and the offense gets you know,

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Speaker 1: healthy hot, they get most are back, they get wattle back,

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Speaker 1: they play well. Tyreek Hill, you know, if he has

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Speaker 1: a good game. I don't like the Dolphins because they

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Speaker 1: have some they have a probably the best wide receiver

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Speaker 1: and they have the best wide receiver in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and Tyreek Hill who can get you at any time,

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Speaker 1: and that offense. I just think you're not gonna hold

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Speaker 1: them down consistently. That's how I feel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And it also like, you know, in a weird way,

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Speaker 2: when you when you beat a team like recently, does

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Speaker 2: that make you feel better or worse?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 1: Then it's like, I mean, the Ravens did it to

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. Right on twenty twelve, Broncos came to empty

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Speaker 1: Bank Stadium. She lacked the Ravens. Ravens went out there

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Speaker 1: and whooped them. Yeah, so I think who.

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Speaker 2: Them killed them.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't even close.

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Speaker 2: But but no, I think that like I don't know,

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Speaker 2: I you can you can kind of pick a power

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Speaker 2: all that stuff. All you want to say, like that's

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Speaker 2: gonna be motivation. There's plenty of motivation. So I don't

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Speaker 2: know how real that is but I do think that

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins scare me because they had their ceiling offensively

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Speaker 2: is so hot exactly.

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Speaker 1: Look, they've been one of the they were one of

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Speaker 1: the best teams in the league. It was not long

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Speaker 1: ago that that the Ravens were playing them for a

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Speaker 1: first round playoff. Buy on the line, right, Like, I

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Speaker 1: just don't. And I also don't buy into this whole

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Speaker 1: narrative of Miami. A Dolphins team goes into a cold

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Speaker 1: weather environment and all of a sudden they can't play

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Speaker 1: at all. I just don't buy that. I know you do, well, don't.

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Speaker 2: You'll see how they do in Kansas. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be like negative ten degrees. That'll be That'll be

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Speaker 2: the case in point. You know, they they can put

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Speaker 2: to bed that argument.

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Speaker 1: But I my feeling is that this was one of

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Speaker 1: the best teams in the league for a long time.

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Speaker 1: This seas yeah, and so I'd rather not face them

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Speaker 1: in the divisional round.

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Speaker 2: And then, last, but not least, is the Steelers. The

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Speaker 2: Steelers are playing the Bills. Steelers just won. They've won

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Speaker 2: seven out of eight against the Ravens. They beat him

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Speaker 2: twice this year. Now the second game, obviously the Ravens

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Speaker 2: didn't play Lamar Jackson and the Roquwan Smith and handful

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Speaker 2: of other starters. So I'm not putting much of any

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Speaker 2: stock in that last game. But I think the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: The Steelers are a team. They're like the opposite of Miami.

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Speaker 2: Like Miami is this like offensive juggernaut. The Steelers are

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Speaker 2: not an offensive juggernaut. But they're a team that doesn't

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Speaker 2: beat themselves. They make good decisions, they win close games,

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Speaker 2: they come up with timely turnovers. That's that's the recipe

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Speaker 2: for the and they can run the ball really well,

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Speaker 2: which they did against the Ravens in that regular season finale.

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Speaker 1: Now they didn't have Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, or Marlon

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Speaker 1: Humphrey on the field. No, but yes, yeah, no, that's

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Speaker 1: I think if the Ravens faced the Steelers in the

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Speaker 1: Division round, they might beat them by three touchdowns. There's

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Speaker 1: the potential for that. But if it's a really close

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Speaker 1: game late in the fourth quarter. Again, just like I

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Speaker 1: said about Joe, I've seen how this story goes, and

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Speaker 1: I don't like the ending generally speaking. Yeah, and so

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Speaker 1: I think the Ravens, of all the potential matchups, the

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Speaker 1: Steelers I think are the weakest team of the bunch,

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Speaker 1: but they're extremely well coached. Like you said, they do

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Speaker 1: all those things right, Like, they're gonna be a tough

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Speaker 1: out for whoever they get, generally speaking, because they can

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Speaker 1: run the ball well, because they generally play pretty good defense.

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Speaker 1: They're physical, like they're a team that's built for this

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Speaker 1: time of year in cold weather games. When you talk

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Speaker 1: about the Dolphins and not being a cold weather team,

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Speaker 1: that ain't the Steelers. Yeah, and they're gonna come and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna hit you, right, And really it's kind of

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Speaker 1: they've had the Ravens number the past couple seasons longer

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Speaker 1: than that. And but of all the matchups, if you're

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Speaker 1: saying you can pick one of them, I'll take that one.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens should have beat them in Pittsburgh badly. The

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Speaker 1: Ravens drop eight balls that game, right, had a crazy

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Speaker 1: amount of drops. They should have smoked them. Then.

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Speaker 2: Well, and that's my point in talking about, well who

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Speaker 2: the Steelers are identity wise, they're a team that just

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Speaker 2: does not beat themselves as they did in that game.

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Speaker 2: In terms of d v o A. We're gonna have

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Speaker 2: the conversation with Aaron Shots here. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in

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Speaker 2: d v o A this year, Cleveland is eighth, Miami

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Speaker 2: is sixth, and Houston is twelfth. So Miami is the best,

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Speaker 2: then Cleveland right behind them as Pittsburgh Houston distress. This

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Speaker 2: is Texans, that says Texans according to d v OA.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I think I just pushed back a

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Speaker 2: little bit on this notion that, like, I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of people look at like the Steelers don't win pretty,

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Speaker 2: like they don't win pretty games, but like they do

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Speaker 2: win a lot.

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Speaker 1: And look, you're not gonna You're not gonna sit here

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Speaker 1: and convince me that Mason Rudolph's gonna come into m

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Speaker 1: and T. Banks City.

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Speaker 2: I like the Ravens against anybody. I like the Ravens

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Speaker 2: against anybody. I feel good about this team and where

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Speaker 2: they're headed.

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Speaker 1: It would be a much different game than the regular

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Speaker 1: season finale, of course, it would be totally different. I mean,

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Speaker 1: look at how the Browns just got smacked up by

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Speaker 1: I don't when the Browns were arresting their starters, the

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Speaker 1: Bengals smacked him up. This was a seventeen to ten game.

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Speaker 2: I don't put any sock really into the regular season finale.

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Speaker 2: I do put sock into the matchup earlier this.

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Speaker 1: Year where Ravens would just beat themselves.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and and I think that the Steelers, the Steelers

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Speaker 2: have that effect on teams. They've did that to plenty

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Speaker 2: of teams and they and that's why everyone's touting the

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Speaker 2: stat that that Tom has never had a losing record

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Speaker 2: since he's been right.

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Speaker 1: The question also a big question mark in that matchup

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Speaker 1: would be TJ Watt. We suffer the injury in the

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Speaker 1: Ravens game. The reports are the best case scenario, best

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Speaker 1: case scenario, he's back in two weeks, which you probably know.

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Speaker 1: He will be just here right in like with a

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Speaker 1: brace on right. He's not gonna be one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: He would not be one hundred percent for that divisional

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Speaker 1: playoff game. I think it's safe to say, but he

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Speaker 1: plays eight percent. He still makes an impact, yeah potentially.

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Speaker 1: So all right, so we mentioned dvo So now this

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Speaker 1: is a good time to take a quick break. When

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Speaker 1: we come back, we will be joined by the founder

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00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 1: of the creator of DVOA. Thank you for listening to

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00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 1: the Lounge podcast. We're coming to you from the Cikeek studio.

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00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:11,120
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Speaker 2: need to be at least twenty one or order to

434
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,120
Speaker 2: play and physically president in Maryland. For help, visit Nbcambleyhelp

435
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 2: dot org or call one one hundred at Gambler. Also,

436
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Speaker 2: BG and E is all about small businesses being the

437
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Speaker 2: backbone of Maryland's economy. In partnership with the Ravens, BGE

438
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 2: is investing in communities across central Maryland, helping small businesses

439
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 2: continue to thrive. Be sure to visit www dot bg

440
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Speaker 2: now dot com to learn more. This week's business is

441
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Speaker 2: Parkridge Creamery, reaching Baltimore's beloved to Hakka Brothers Premium small

442
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 2: batch ice cream and park Ridge Trade companies Cormet. Additional

443
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Speaker 2: flavor combinations has park Ridge serving up creative takes on

444
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Speaker 2: cups and because.

445
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 1: Well now we are joined by Aaron Shotts of FT

446
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 1: and Fantasy. He's the Chief's chief analytics officer there. Thank

447
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 1: you for joining us, Aaron, and you are the creator

448
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:24,399
Speaker 1: of DVOA, which we have referenced many times on the

449
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 1: Lounge podcast and every time, you know, we try to

450
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 1: explain it, we kind of do the shorthand and we're like,

451
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,199
Speaker 1: you know, it's like in depth analytics stuff. It's like

452
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: really smart, cool and technical stuff, you know. So now

453
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 1: we have you here, can you give a short summary

454
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 1: or definition of DVOA for the listeners out there?

455
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 3: Sure? Sure? Short short version is that it measures success

456
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 3: on every play based on the down and distance and

457
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 3: then adjusts that compares it to a league average based

458
00:20:55,720 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 3: live that's adjusted for situation and opponent. Okay, better than

459
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: zero is good offense. Worse than zero lower than zero

460
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 3: is good defense.

461
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 1: Right, all right, Well that makes a lot more sense. Now,

462
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: hopefully that helps our listeners. So the Ravens have been

463
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 1: historically good in terms of DVOA rankings. Just just how

464
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: good have the twenty twenty three Ravens been, Aaron?

465
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, So DVOA goes back to nineteen eighty one. That's

466
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 3: as far back as we have the play by play breakdowns,

467
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 3: and in that time, the Ravens are the fifth best

468
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 3: team in the regular season that DVA has ever measured,

469
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 3: and that's only because they sat the starters in week eighteen.

470
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 3: Before Week eighteen, they were the third best team. Wow,

471
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 3: find only the two thousand and seven Patriots and the

472
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety one Washington Redskins.

473
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 1: Wow, that's pretty incredible. That is pretty incredible. And so

474
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: what aspect? I mean, obviously, to be that good, you're

475
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 1: off and defense has to be really good. But what

476
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: is it that's really stood out about these Ravens that

477
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: have made them so efficient in terms of DVA.

478
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 3: The fact that they have clawbered good opponents. Right, So,

479
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 3: they have played the fifth hardest schedule in the league

480
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 3: based on our numbers, and they've clabbered those teams. They

481
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 3: claubreed Detroit, they clawbered Miami, they clawbered San Francisco, they

482
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 3: clawbered Cleveland the first time they played. They clawbered Seattle,

483
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 3: which is more of an average team than a good team.

484
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: But still, I mean they destroyed them. I mean they've

485
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 3: destroyed all these good teams on their schedule. So part

486
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 3: of the reason why they don't seem as historic, as

487
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 3: some of those historic teams seemed as they were happening.

488
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 3: There's a couple of reasons. The first is that they

489
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 3: were better at the end of the season than the

490
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 3: start of the season. Right with a team like the

491
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 3: two thousand and seven Patriots, we knew from the very

492
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 3: beginning that they were historic, whereas the Ravens have sort

493
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 3: of steadily clawned. Another thing is they're not really social

494
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 3: media friendly in the same I mean, not like there

495
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 3: was social media, but there was this little thing called

496
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl Shuffle, Right, the Ravens don't have their

497
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 3: version of the Super Bowl Shuffle to be compared to

498
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 3: the eighty five Bears. And the other thing is that

499
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 3: I don't think people realize just how good the teams

500
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,679
Speaker 3: they've beaten are, right, So they don't, you know, the

501
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 3: fact that they're thirteen and four rather than like fifteen

502
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 3: and one is in part I mean, they've got close losses,

503
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 3: they've played good teams. Cleveland is a good team, right

504
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 3: to beat them, and they don't. People don't understand just

505
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 3: how dominant these wins have been over good teams, including

506
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: a team San Francisco that is almost as historically good

507
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: as the Ravens are.

508
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 2: That's what I was just gonna ask. I remember going

509
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 2: into that game, that Christmas game, that matchup was among

510
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 2: the most heralded matchups. I think you'll know, but I

511
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 2: think that that was maybe the best game from a

512
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: DVOA standpoint since that two thousand and seven Patriots team

513
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 2: against the Colts with the Peyton manning Colts.

514
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 3: Yep.

515
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 2: And so I guess what I am curious to get

516
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 2: is does that make it even more impressive what they

517
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: did against San Francisco just knowing how they are?

518
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 3: Oh? Yeah, it absolutely makes it more impressive. And I

519
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 3: think that's another reason why people are not necessarily as

520
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 3: aware of how historically good the Ravens are, because they're

521
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: not dominating the league on their own. We have two

522
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 3: teams like this this year. The forty nine Ers are

523
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 3: the eighth best team since nineteen eighty one by my numbers,

524
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 3: and then you have just a colossal gap until you

525
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 3: get to the third best team of the year, which

526
00:24:55,560 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 3: is Buffalo. And yeah, so what they did against San

527
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 3: Francisco even more impressive. San Francisco is one of the

528
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 3: top offenses that we've ever measured, and the Ravens basically

529
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: shut them off except for that first drive, and like

530
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 3: the last drive that was led by Sam Darnold, they

531
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: basically shut that offense off.

532
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 1: So I'm guessing I'm sure you probably saw Mike Floria's

533
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: comment said he said it would be a very boring

534
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 1: Super Bowl if the Ravens met the forty nine ers,

535
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna guess that you would disagree with that statement.

536
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 3: Oh, I think it would be awesome. I mean, first

537
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 3: of all, it's like extra awesome because you can go

538
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: back and watch the first meeting and go, Okay, how

539
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,479
Speaker 3: are they gonna change their stret You know, how are

540
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers gonna change their scheme now? Because

541
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 3: I'll tell you if they play again, brock perty is

542
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 3: not having four more passes go off dude's fingertips like

543
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: that is not gonna happen. He's not gonna throw four

544
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 3: picks again. It's gonna be closer. In fact, it would

545
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 3: not shock me if Vegas favored the forty nine ers

546
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 3: in a rematch, although my numbers would favor the raven.

547
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: I would hope that they would. I feel like that

548
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: would just add it would be that motivation once again

549
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 1: for the Ravens.

550
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 3: I mean it would only be by like a point, right,

551
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 3: but yeah, I mean it would be a phenomenal You

552
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 3: have two phenomenal offenses, two phenomenal defenses, right, the one

553
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 3: place where the Ravens are clearly better than the forty

554
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:22,959
Speaker 3: nine ers as special teams.

555
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: So I saw that no team had ever had more

556
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: than two games with a one DVOA score in a season,

557
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 1: and the Ravens had four of them Detroit, Seattle, San Francisco,

558
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: and Miami.

559
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. It's crazy, right, it's I mean, it's part of

560
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 3: why they're so historically good is that they've had those

561
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 3: historically good games balance out, you know, a meg game

562
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 3: against Arizona or a small loss to Indianapolis. Right, That's

563
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 3: why they're so high despite having the four losses, is

564
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 3: because the losses were all and the wins, those wins

565
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: have been just colossal. Like even if you include the

566
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 3: playoff playoff runs of great teams like the eighty nine

567
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 3: to forty nine Ers and the eighty five Bears, and

568
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 3: you still there's no other team that's ever put up

569
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 3: more than two games over one hundred percent in a

570
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 3: single season, and Baltimore has fourth.

571
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's remarkable. I mean, I guess, So here's here's

572
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: the question that I feel like I have and probably

573
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: plenty of Ravens fans have like this. It's been great,

574
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: especially this last month of the season, when you're rattling

575
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: off these big wins against San Francisco and then against

576
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: the Dolphins, and it's kind of this you're ride in

577
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 2: the wave of optimism and excitement. I guess the question

578
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 2: now is how much of this is a predictor of

579
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: what to expect here in the future. Now you're getting

580
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: into the playoffs, and certainly plenty of Ravens fans are

581
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: are called it scarred from twenty nineteen when they went

582
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: into that postseason red hot and ended up losing the

583
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: divisional round. I think that this is a much different team.

584
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 2: I think it's a much better team, So I'm not

585
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 2: as worried about that. But how how much of this

586
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 2: is going to be a predictor of what plays out

587
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 2: the rest of the way here in the postseason.

588
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: Well, that's the problem is no matter what advanced stats

589
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 3: you use, the best teams do not win the Super

590
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 3: Bowl as often as you think they should, And in particular,

591
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 3: in the last twenty years, right in the eighties and nineties,

592
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: the teams that were the best team during the regular

593
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 3: season won the Super Bowl much more often than in

594
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: the last twenty years. And if you look at the

595
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 3: lists of the best teams by DVOA, you end up

596
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 3: with a lot of teams that lost in the divisional round.

597
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 2: Oh no, don't tell me that, Eric, They'll tell me.

598
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 3: Ten, ranging from the eighty seven to forty nine ers

599
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 3: and the ninety five forty nine ers to the twenty

600
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 3: ten Patriots and yes, the twenty nineteen Baltimore Ravens. So

601
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 3: it's not Here's the thing that the Ravens and forty

602
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: nine Ers have going for them compared to some of

603
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 3: the teams that are on the best DVOA list. They're

604
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 3: the number one seeds. Right. Some of the teams on

605
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 3: the list of best DVOA, because of close losses or

606
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: because there was another really great team that year, were

607
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 3: not the number one seeds, right. So the Ravens and

608
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 3: forty nine ers get that week of rest, and they

609
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 3: get that home field advantage. So they have all the

610
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 3: advantages that go with being the number one seeds. And

611
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 3: these fantastic regular seasons backing up the idea that they're

612
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 3: going to make it to the Super Bowl, whereas historically,

613
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 3: I mean, the twenty ten Patriots were a one seed,

614
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: but like the ninety five to forty nine Ers were

615
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 3: not one and the twenty twenty two Bills were not

616
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 3: a one seed, And like there have been teams that

617
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 3: have lost on the road, like Seattle in twenty twelve

618
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 3: and twenty fifteen had really great ratings but they ended

619
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 3: up having to go on the road. Like, so the

620
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 3: Ravens and forty nine ers have a lot going for.

621
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 2: The I'm curious, is there anything to be said for

622
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 2: basically playing your best football at the end of the season.

623
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: Obviously DVOA is a calculation of the entire season performance

624
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 2: that we're talking about right now. But the Ravens have

625
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 2: been playing their best football over the course of the

626
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: last month of the season. Obviously lost the last game,

627
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: but everyone knows that that that game didn't matter in Baltimore.

628
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 2: So no, no, it didn't matter, you know. So is

629
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 2: there is there anything to be said for playing your

630
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 2: best at this time and then carrying that into the playoffs.

631
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 3: I have a version of DVOA called weighted DVA that

632
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 3: gives more weight to recent games it's a little bit

633
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: more predictive of the future in general, but not when

634
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 3: it comes to winning. The top teams in that haven't

635
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 3: won the Super Bowl either, like partly because you end

636
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 3: up with teams that weren't one seeds, like the twenty

637
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 3: twelve Seahawks and the twenty fifteen Seahawks, or you end

638
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: up with teams that were super hot at the end

639
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,959
Speaker 3: of the regular season and then lost in ridiculous fashion

640
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, like the twenty nineteen Saints. Right, that

641
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: was the Minneapolis Miracle, I think, yeah, like, or was

642
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 3: twenty seventeen in the Minneapolis Miracle? Twenty nineteen might have.

643
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 2: That that was the miss passage miss pass right, yeah, Like.

644
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's you know, that's the downside of this.

645
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 3: The downside of this is you want to believe that

646
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: the dozen best teams of all time, that eleven of

647
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 3: them won the Super Bowl. The other one was the

648
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 3: two thousand and seven Patriot. But it's just not that way.

649
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: The best teams of the regular season do not win

650
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,959
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, as much as we want to believe

651
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: that they should.

652
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna pretend like I didn't hear that.

653
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: Like I'll tell you, we have the odds of the

654
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers and Ravens making it to the Super

655
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 3: Bowl much higher than the market, and yet we still

656
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 3: have it as a better than fifty to fifty shot

657
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 3: that one of them will lose.

658
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: On the way. Interesting. Interesting, I'm curious, how does how

659
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: did the twenty twenty three Ravens compare to the twenty

660
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 1: nineteen Ravens in DVOA? Like where the twenty nineteen Ravens

661
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: really really good in terms of DVA at the time.

662
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, this team is better on defense. That team was

663
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 3: actually had a better passing game, which I know will

664
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: shock Ravens fans because from a film perspective, you feel

665
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: like you have better receivers and Jackson does a better

666
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 3: processing job now than he did four years ago. He's

667
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: less likely to take off with his legs, like, he

668
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 3: processes through his reads better. It feels like he's more

669
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 3: impressive as a passer. But from a numerical point of view,

670
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 3: the passing game was better in twenty nineteen, but the

671
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 3: defense was not as good, and the special teams were

672
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 3: actually not as good. You know, the non Justin Tucker

673
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 3: special teams were not as good.

674
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: Return game and whatnot and coverage and so how good

675
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: from a historical perspective is this Ravens defense in terms

676
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: of DVOA and obviously in Baltimore. You know, I just

677
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: wrote yesterday. I'm sure you saw the Ravens have a

678
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: triple crown. Defensively, they had the most takeaways in the league,

679
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: most Saxon League, and lowest points laud per game in

680
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: history only first.

681
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 3: However, you wanted to a triple crown. It's not like

682
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 3: something that anybody has ever tracked in the past. I

683
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 3: will say that they are the twelfth. I believe they're

684
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 3: the twelfth best defense in DBOA in Cleveland is eighteen. Interesting,

685
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 3: So they're both in the top twenty historically, but not

686
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 3: the top ten.

687
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: Interesting because that's like often the debate in Baltimore is

688
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: always you know, what defense can if any ever compare

689
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: to the two thousand defense, which was another time.

690
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 3: Another era, Doc Ravens fan, Oh my gosh, So in

691
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: the regular season, once you adjust for schedule, the two

692
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 3: thousand defense was not as good as you think it was.

693
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 3: In the regular season, they were not as good against

694
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 3: the past. They were the best best against the run

695
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 3: aff that's against run ever. But I don't even have

696
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 3: them as the number one defense of that season. I

697
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 3: have Tennessee as the number one defense of that season. Now,

698
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 3: the difference is that the Ravens turned it on in

699
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: the playoffs and were super good in the playoffs. So

700
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 3: if you include the playoffs, they come out among the

701
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 3: best defenses ever. But I would say I don't think

702
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 3: the two thousand Ravens defense comes close to the eighty five,

703
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 3: eighty four, eighty four through eighty six Bears, or the

704
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 3: team that I think has the best defense ever that

705
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: didn't even make the playoffs, the nineteen ninety one Philadelphia Eagles.

706
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: Interesting. Interesting, we just won.

707
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: We're not gonna tell ray Lewis. We won't tell Rayle

708
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: te ray Ring.

709
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 3: The ring needs a lot more than what I think.

710
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: I thought it was actually interesting going back and look

711
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 1: at the numbers from the two thousand defense. They only

712
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: had thirty five sacks, which.

713
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, they were not even sixty. Yeah, they were not

714
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,919
Speaker 3: as good against the pass as you think they were.

715
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 3: They were unbelievable against the run, and then yeah they

716
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 3: turned it on in the playoffs and had that great

717
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 3: Super Bowl.

718
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: All right, Well, Aaron, before we let you go, We're

719
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: gonna put you on the spot. I mean, do you

720
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 1: think the Ravens are gonna win it all? That's the

721
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 1: question with the analytical mind like you, you know, emotions removed.

722
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: Do you think the Ravens are gonna win it all?

723
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: I know you said history and DVA, that doesn't necessarily

724
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: say it, but do you think.

725
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 3: I know, they have a little bit higher rating than

726
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, and they beat the forty nine

727
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 3: ers the first time. But I think what I think

728
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 3: what's most likely to happen is one of these teams

729
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 3: is gonna get upset and the other one is gonna.

730
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 2: Win it all.

731
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 3: All right, all right, But if Baltimore plays San Francisco,

732
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 3: I feel like that's a really even matchup, even though

733
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 3: Baltimore did win the first time. But you know, something

734
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,760
Speaker 3: weird might happen and one of those teams might lose.

735
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 2: On the way.

736
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 3: Buffalo and Dallas are probably the most likely teams to

737
00:35:56,520 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 3: knock to knock them off. But I mean, if you

738
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 3: said to me, who has the best chance to win

739
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 3: it at all, I think it's I think I think

740
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers might have the best chance to

741
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 3: win it all because they have an easier path to

742
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 3: get there than the Ravens. The Ravens are the best team.

743
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 3: But I would rather have to face Detroit and Philadelphia

744
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: than you know, I'd rather have to face Dallas, Detroit,

745
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 3: Philadelphia than Buffalo, Kansas City, Miami.

746
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 1: Right. So you think Buffalo's the Ravens because they're number

747
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: three in d v A, that that's the toughest challenge.

748
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 3: And because consistent that if you get them on one

749
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: of their good days.

750
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 1: Oh boy, interesting. Interesting? All right, well, Aaron Shots, thank

751
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Really appreciate your work

752
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: for fans listening out there. Make sure you follow them

753
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: on Twitter as I do at a shots as sc

754
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 1: Hatz NFL. Aaron, thank you so much for your time.

755
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: We really appreciate it.

756
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 3: I should also point out all my DVOA work is

757
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 3: at FTN fans to see dot com slash dvay.

758
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 1: Yes, thank you, Aaron, Thank you, all right, take care

759
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: of Aaron. Thank you big thanks to Aaron Shottz. Check

760
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: his workout at ft N Fantasy. You can find them

761
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 1: also on Twitter at FTN fantasy. Find his work there.

762
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: Just really interesting stuff. I mean, I don't like the

763
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: fact that he's not saying the Ravens are going to

764
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: win the super Bowl hundred percent because they're the best

765
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 1: team and the best team always wins. Yeah, but we

766
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 1: know that story, right. The twenty twelve Ravens were not

767
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 1: the best team, right. The Broncos were the better team

768
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: that regular season by a large margin. The twenty eleven

769
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: Ravens are better than the twenty twelve Ravens. Yeah, it's

770
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: the best team doesn't always win. That's the sad part.

771
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: But you know what, Sometimes the best team does win.

772
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: Sometimes the best team does win.

773
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: And there's plenty of examples through history where the best

774
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 2: team has won.

775
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 1: And I want to go a look at those examples. Yeah,

776
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: that'll make me feel better.

777
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, look at those I mean, I'm not We all

778
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 2: know that, like regular season success is only so predictive

779
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 2: of what's going to happen in the playoffs. The number

780
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 2: one seed doesn't always win, the number one seed doesn't

781
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 2: always get to the super Bowl. But I think that

782
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 2: I'm going to be a broken record here for the

783
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 2: next three weeks saying that I just feel like this

784
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 2: team has all of the makeup, coaching, players, everything about

785
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 2: it to me is a team that's built to go

786
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 2: to a super Bowl. I just feel like I feel

787
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 2: that way in looking at the team and watching the team,

788
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 2: looking at the talent. Now, will they do it, We'll see,

789
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 2: But I feel like I feel really confident about this team.

790
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 1: I do too, It's just there's a little difference in

791
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 1: terms of nerves. I feel nervous now where I didn't

792
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: feel nervous earlier in the year. And I think that's

793
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: because early in the year I knew all along that

794
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: the Ravens had the talent to do so to go

795
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. And when people would ask me

796
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 1: about the team, I would say, yeah, I mean they

797
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: could go. They could go all the way this year

798
00:38:54,840 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: they could, and now it's turned two, they should should

799
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,479
Speaker 1: go all the way because they're clearly the best team

800
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 1: in the league. You're the clearly the best team in

801
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 1: the AFC. Yeah, clearly. You just whooped up on the

802
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. I guess they haven't played the Bills, so

803
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 1: there's that question. Bills are number three in DVA, so

804
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 1: I guess that's one thing they haven't proven. But I

805
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: think they've proven it right. They should go to the

806
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, And with that comes the expectations now I

807
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: don't think that the sense that and the feeling that

808
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: I get being in this is this locker room every day,

809
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: every week, is that the players don't feel that way,

810
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 1: because I think that they've felt like they should be

811
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: there all year long. They've they've been carrying themselves talking

812
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 1: that way, playing that way all year long, that they

813
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 1: should be in the super Bowl. That's their destiny, that's

814
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen. We're the best team and we're gonna

815
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: show you. And so like, I don't I don't get

816
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 1: any one iota of the nervousness that I'm personally feeling

817
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: from this team.

818
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's very good that the team doesn't

819
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,439
Speaker 2: take on your h what nervousness.

820
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they've been walking with their chests out

821
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: all season long. It started before the season started when

822
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: Roquan Smith came on this lounge podcast and said it's

823
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: very couch, just very couch and said we want all

824
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 1: the smoke, Yep, we want all of it.

825
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 2: And he hasn't back down from that no any day

826
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 2: since that.

827
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 1: So, like, I just feel like this team has they've

828
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: known they've had something special, and they've had those expectations

829
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: internally all year long and they've played up to it.

830
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, now we're gonna get a chance to connect with

831
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: these guys later this week. They will be practicing on Wednesday.

832
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 2: That normal week starts Wednesday Thursday Friday. They also have

833
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 2: practice on Saturday, and so if you want to listen

834
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 2: to the press conferences which will begin on Wednesday, head

835
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 2: over to the press Pass podcast feed and all the

836
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 2: press conferences will live there in their entirety, and we

837
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 2: will be back with a guest later this week. That

838
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: episode will likely end up dropping for you Thursday afternoon

839
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: Friday morning, kind of depending on when that guest comes through. So,

840
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 2: as always, we appreciate you listening. Email us a the

841
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 2: lounge at Ravens dot NFL dot net and we will

842
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 2: talk with you again later this week.