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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go, throwing a job. I'm sitting

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Speaker 2: up a cash touchdown. We'll see most gamblers when they

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Speaker 2: go to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible, big bank,

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Speaker 2: small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, that's just.

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Speaker 1: The ultimate kaban want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Thanksgiving edition of the Action Network NFL

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Speaker 3: Betting Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 3: This is your NFL week number twelve preview. I'm joined

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Speaker 3: as always of Action Network, Kyligan, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 3: Degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 2: Stucky. Happy Thanksgiving, Stucky. How's it going.

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Speaker 1: It's a wonderful time of the year, but the days

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Speaker 1: leading up to it are are brutal. But happy to

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Speaker 1: do it in order to get this podcast out the

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Speaker 1: day before the holiday, everybody.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, I'm probably going to be pulling it all night

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Speaker 3: or tonight. This is one of our I think our

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Speaker 3: latest recording episodes. Since I want to say last holiday season,

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Speaker 3: I know we did win at like three am. So yeah, man,

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Speaker 3: Given the people what they want and hopefully what they need.

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Speaker 2: Before we kick things off. Three very quick reminders.

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Speaker 3: Number One, if you plan on betting the NFL this

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Speaker 3: season and haven't downloaded the free award.

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Speaker 2: Winning Action Network app, what are you doing?

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Speaker 3: It's got betting tools, analysis for me, stucky, the whole

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Speaker 3: Action Network team, and it lets you track every bet

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Speaker 3: that you make. If you want a chance at a

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Speaker 3: free Vegas vacation, don't forget to enter our free custom

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Speaker 3: weekly DFS contest, the Action Pods Tournament of Champions presented

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Speaker 3: by Bett MGM by following the link in.

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Speaker 2: This episode description.

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Speaker 3: And in case you didn't realize it, the holiday season

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Speaker 3: is here. We're gonna have snowy overs to bet on.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna start adding eggnog to shit for no reason.

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Speaker 3: Jets players are getting a jump on clearing out their lockers.

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Speaker 3: All the holiday traditions are here, and now the Action

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Speaker 3: Network is offering its best price of the year on

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Speaker 3: become an Action Network Pro subscriber for fifty percent off.

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Speaker 3: That's just forty nine ninety nine for a full year

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Speaker 3: of access to our projected NFL spreads and over unders

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Speaker 3: powered by myself, Stucky Sean Corner, all of the NFL

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Speaker 3: experts here at Action Network. It's a great product, so

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Speaker 3: if you want to get that, be sure to check

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Speaker 3: it out. It's got alerts, pro system pick so much more.

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Speaker 3: And if you're already a pro subscriber, then give a

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Speaker 3: subscription as a gift. Find a gambler less fortunate than yourself,

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Speaker 3: maybe someone who just keeps betting on the egos to

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Speaker 3: cover like me in a losing effort. Either way, don't wait,

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of now, we got three games, so let's get

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Speaker 3: right into it right now. We're gonna preview each of

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Speaker 3: the three Thanksgiving Day games, then go into our Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack, our favorite totals, all that good stuff, and

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Speaker 3: we're gonna end with a very special draft, which you

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Speaker 3: guys will just have to wait and see at the

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Speaker 3: end of the show.

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Speaker 2: But let's talk so Thanksgiving Football.

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Speaker 3: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers, We're thankful for you, all right. First up,

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Speaker 3: we have the US in Texans going to Detroit, who

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Speaker 3: annually plays on Thanksgiving Der this time as a two

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Speaker 3: and a half points. Home dog with a total of

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Speaker 3: fifty one are the Detroit Lions against these Texans, I mean,

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Speaker 3: last week shut out twenty zip by a team starting

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Speaker 3: an XFL quarterback.

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Speaker 2: This just felt like rock bottom for Matt Patricia.

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Speaker 1: I mean that they have to be one of the

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Speaker 1: poorest coach teams in the league, them and the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: for sure. There's there's a lot of interesting Look a

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Speaker 1: lot of the things we're going to talk about tonight

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Speaker 1: on a Tuesday night, there's going to be more uncertainty

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Speaker 1: than usual, So make sure that you check out a

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Speaker 1: lot of our written stuff and then follow us on

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Speaker 1: the app for what we bet. But we still don't

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Speaker 1: know if Kenny Galladay is gonna play, right, We don't

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Speaker 1: know if DeAndre Swift is gonna play. The Texans have

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Speaker 1: a horrible run defense. They have no interior defensive lineman.

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Speaker 1: Their linebackers are awful, but Adrian Peterson is awful. So

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Speaker 1: the difference between Adrian Peterson and there and DeAndre Swift

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Speaker 1: and the Lion's running game because they just insist on

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Speaker 1: running it no matter what, is pretty massive. And the

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Speaker 1: Lions offense, the difference between their passing game with and

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Speaker 1: without Galladay is also massive. I don't know if it's

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Speaker 1: it's a little like chicken. What came first? The chicken

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Speaker 1: or the egg thing here because Stafford has struggled of late,

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Speaker 1: and in the past he's struggled a little bit more

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Speaker 1: when Galaday is in the lineup. I think this year

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Speaker 1: or the last two years is touched on interception. Ra

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Speaker 1: shows almost double when Golladay's in the lineup, but last

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Speaker 1: week he only completed two passes longer than twenty yards?

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Speaker 1: Is that because no Galladay or is it because of

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Speaker 1: his hand? So he has, you know, torn ligament in

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Speaker 1: his throwing hand. And if you go back he's been

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Speaker 1: in the league for about twelve years, back to twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: he sprayed his right middle finger on his throwing hand.

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Speaker 1: He threw five picks in nineteen quarters while he was

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Speaker 1: wearing like a fingerless glove. They beat the Bears in

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Speaker 1: the game that he was injured, and they lost their

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Speaker 1: final four games. And then if you go all the

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Speaker 1: way back to twenty eleven, he played through a broken

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Speaker 1: right index finger and the Alians went one to two

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Speaker 1: in those games, and he threw nine interceptions in three games.

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Speaker 1: So he says he's fine and he's playing through it.

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Speaker 1: But there's also the other factor here that maybe Stafford

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Speaker 1: is hurt, and that's contributed to as well. If both

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Speaker 1: Gallada and Swift aren't going, I can't play. I can't

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Speaker 1: play the lines because also with questions with Stafford, I

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Speaker 1: don't think that he'll be able to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: this Texans defense. And Deshaun Watson is just playing at

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Speaker 1: an extremely high level of tunslback his left tackle with

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Speaker 1: his left guard back this week too after they both

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Speaker 1: missed last week. They've both been excellent pass blocking and

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Speaker 1: the Lion's defense is just a mess. They don't really

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Speaker 1: do anything well. Kuda's really struggling, true found is struggling

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Speaker 1: in their man heavy defense. So I don't see much

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Speaker 1: value in this line. I was thinking about maybe teasing

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Speaker 1: the Lions from plus two and a half to plus

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Speaker 1: eight and a half. It fits that criteria, but I'd

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Speaker 1: have to first wait to see if goad and Swift

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Speaker 1: are in. If not, this might be a pass for me.

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Speaker 1: And if you made me bet it without Goads with

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Speaker 1: I'd probably about the Texans.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean hearing you talk about Matthew Stafford and

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Speaker 3: That's a really great point because I was kind of

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Speaker 3: thinking that myself about is he just plain hurt? Because

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Speaker 3: it's really inexplicable to get shut out by the Carolina Panthers,

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Speaker 3: regardless of who's in the lineup, just by being Matthew Stafford,

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Speaker 3: like you be, the fact that he's Matthew Stafford is

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Speaker 3: the reason the Lions should not score zero be stuck

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Speaker 3: on zero points for sixty minutes. So I feel like

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Speaker 3: I should just sade my model, which yeah, I have

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Speaker 3: this about a pick them, you know, and there is

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Speaker 3: you know, a healthy Lions team, there would be some

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Speaker 3: value there. But I feel like betting on the Texans

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Speaker 3: winning the bet and just listening to the announcers talk

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Speaker 3: about how tough Matthew Stafford is for sixty minutes while

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Speaker 3: the Lions score like three points against the terrible defense.

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Speaker 2: Like I feel like I feel like I see that coming.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the Panthers have an awful defense.

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Speaker 3: I know, like you've been You've been saying this for

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Speaker 3: like weeks, like even when their defense was overachieved, and

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Speaker 3: it's been like, hey, this defense is awful, and like

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Speaker 3: if you would have asked me any defense that was

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Speaker 3: going to get a shutout, like a shutout like that's

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Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers. Getting a shutout on anyone is absurd.

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Speaker 3: So that now we're on a short week. So maybe

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Speaker 3: if this was a Sunday game, you know, you know,

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Speaker 3: it would be a little more favorable to the Lions.

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Speaker 3: But situationally, you know, the more I kind of dig

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Speaker 3: into this, I don't see it looking looking at great

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Speaker 3: for Detroit. I mean, the one thing about the Lions

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Speaker 3: is and this I think even dan Quinn kind of

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Speaker 3: had this working in his favor for a while.

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Speaker 2: It just lasted too long.

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Speaker 3: But the Falcons players, for the most part, loved dan

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Speaker 3: quind like he was kind of a player's coach.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: The word from a lot of the sources, you hear

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Speaker 3: that the Lions players that locker really not sold on

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Speaker 3: Matt Patricia.

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Speaker 2: So just because he's fighting for his job here it's.

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Speaker 3: Coming off a really brutal loss, doesn't mean they're going

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Speaker 3: to kind of give it all they got.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: Maybe they will because it's a national TV game, who knows,

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Speaker 3: but I just see at this point more red flags

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Speaker 3: I think for the Lions in what you know is

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Speaker 3: on the market as a close game. All right, let's

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Speaker 3: go to the second game of the day for thirty

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Speaker 3: pm Eastern. The Lions Texans at twelve thirty pm Eastern,

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Speaker 3: and we have Washington at Dallas at four thirty pm Eastern.

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Speaker 3: Dallas three point favorite impressive performance. Last week, you were

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Speaker 3: on it stuck against Minnesota. Dallas kind of showed that,

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Speaker 3: you know, they can still be a respectable football They

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Speaker 3: finally kind of got and the enough of the guys

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Speaker 3: on offense involved at the same time, and we're able to,

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Speaker 3: you know, not just completely collapse under pressure. And I

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Speaker 3: thought the offensive line did a lot better job. They

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Speaker 3: moved some pieces around there. So Dallas looking a lot

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Speaker 3: better than they did the last time these two teams played,

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Speaker 3: and Washington.

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Speaker 2: Just wallowed them twenty five to three.

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Speaker 3: I'm thinking we're expecting a little bit of a different

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Speaker 3: outcome this time around. At the same time, I still

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Speaker 3: don't know Dallas should be favored by three points against anyone.

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Speaker 2: What do you think.

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Speaker 1: I've been higher on Dallas than I think everybody over

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Speaker 1: the last time. I mean, I was on them against

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, I should have covered. It was on them

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Speaker 1: against the Steelers they covered easily, and I was on

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Speaker 1: them against the Vikings and they covered easy. Now I

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Speaker 1: think the market is caught up, maybe a little overreacting.

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Speaker 1: Now I make this like two point eight, and I was,

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Speaker 1: and I've been higher on the Cowboys than almost everybody.

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Speaker 1: If you go back to that Washington first Washington game,

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Speaker 1: and I think Dallas only scored three points and think

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Speaker 1: they lost twenty five to three. One of the biggest

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Speaker 1: difference Now, I mean Andy Dalton obviously got decleted and

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Speaker 1: was out. It was an ugly hit. And then you

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Speaker 1: had Ben Denucci come in and it was ugly, but

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Speaker 1: Dalton wasn't doing anything either. You had in that game,

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Speaker 1: you had a rookie center who's now been replaced by

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Speaker 1: Joe Looney. Joe Loan He's not great, but he's playing

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Speaker 1: a lot better than the rookie out of Wisconsin. And

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Speaker 1: then you had Terrence Steele at right tackle her pff.

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Speaker 1: Terrence Steele is the seventy seventh ranked offensive tackle out

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Speaker 1: of seventy seven qualified offensive tackles. Now, who you have

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Speaker 1: in there is one of the best offensive linemen in

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Speaker 1: all of the NFL. And Zach Martin, who's playing really great.

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Speaker 1: He played right tackle last week and was awesome, and

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Speaker 1: that's huge against Washington's defensive line and Washington secondary's playing

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Speaker 1: really well. It's really amazing. I mean, you have Fuller's

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Speaker 1: playing really well and they benefit from the pressure that

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Speaker 1: Washington generates, no doubt, and Ronald Darby's playing role. All

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Speaker 1: these Eagles cast off corners, the Eagles defense stakes and

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Speaker 1: you have all these Eagles cast up corners are like

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Speaker 1: playing out of their minds. Who do we have? We

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Speaker 1: have Rasul Douglas, Sidney Jones, and Ronald Darby. But to

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Speaker 1: the Washington pass defenses by a lot of metrics, top three,

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Speaker 1: top five in the league. A lot of it has

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Speaker 1: to do with that defensive line. But the Cowboys offensive

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Speaker 1: line is much improved now. Everyone shit on Mike Nolan,

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Speaker 1: and rightfully so, but it was a new system. There

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Speaker 1: was a lot of confusion. There was a lot of

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Speaker 1: injuries as well, but people were out of place. There's miscommunication.

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Speaker 1: It just seems like and look, they cut some guys

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Speaker 1: and I think that woke everyone up. I just think

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Speaker 1: that they're now everyone kind of knows where they're supposed

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Speaker 1: to be. The Cowboys are playing much better than they

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Speaker 1: were that first time that they played Washington. I think

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Speaker 1: the line is a tat high. I make it two

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Speaker 1: point eight maybe if you want to tease Washington up.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that that's a terrible idea. The Washington

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Speaker 1: offensive line, by the way, is playing really well. Their

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Speaker 1: running game as a result, has been pretty good passing

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Speaker 1: if it's basically just McLaurin. But yeah, I think that

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Speaker 1: this will be a close game. This game is going

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Speaker 1: to go a long way into deciding the division. Crazy enough,

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Speaker 1: the winner of this game could be, you know, in

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Speaker 1: the driver's seat in first place in the division in

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Speaker 1: a week or two. So maybe Chee's Washington here. I

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Speaker 1: see it's had a bit of value on the under,

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Speaker 1: but nothing I love here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know, this could be an under game.

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Speaker 3: I think I lean that way. I think the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: like they have the edge here, but not to the

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Speaker 3: point where I'd be betting on them to win it

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Speaker 3: by more than a field goal, which is what you're

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Speaker 3: essentially doing. But you know, Alex Smith, he's still kind

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Speaker 3: of doing what he's known to do, which is throw

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Speaker 3: short of the sticks very often. He doesn't go that

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Speaker 3: deeply down the football field. And Andy Dalton, you know,

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Speaker 3: getting a little better protection. I think he'll take some

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Speaker 3: more shots. But you look at how he's him and

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys are matriculating the ball down the field, and

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Speaker 3: it's really, okay, we're gonna get Seedee Lamb going. He's

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Speaker 3: kind of a slot receiver, not going as deep as

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Speaker 3: he was early in the year as far as his

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Speaker 3: route tree. And then Amari Cooper is going to catch

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Speaker 3: some some kind of intermediate throws and you're working in

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Speaker 3: he get empowered. So I think both of these teams

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Speaker 3: are gonna even when they throw the ball, will not

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Speaker 3: be taking a ton of.

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Speaker 2: Shots down the field.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think if I had to play this game,

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Speaker 3: I would go under. The total, by the way, is

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Speaker 3: forty six, So yeah, it's it's one of those low

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Speaker 3: total games. But could certainly not see a huge scoring

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Speaker 3: game out of these two teams.

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Speaker 2: The eight thirty. Again, this is what I'm really excited

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Speaker 2: to talk about.

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Speaker 3: I'm actually working on a piece on the Baltimore Ravens

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Speaker 3: and particularly their offense. Lamar Jackson, you know, can he

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Speaker 3: regain his MVP form? What exactly is going on, you know,

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Speaker 3: with what has kind of changed? Certain things are obvious.

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Speaker 3: The O line has you know, it's a shell of

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Speaker 3: what it was when they were, you know, doing what

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Speaker 3: they do last season. But there's a lot of different

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Speaker 3: factors kind of contributing to the Ravens funk. But at

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Speaker 3: the same time, it's only been a couple of games.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they've lost to some really good teams and

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Speaker 3: they go to Pittsburgh now in kind of a desperation

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Speaker 3: spot here against the Steelers. The total forty four and

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Speaker 3: a half. The big news here, some COVID implications running

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Speaker 3: back JK. Dobbins, running back mark ingram go on the

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Speaker 3: COVID list. We are recording this Tuesday night. There's even

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Speaker 3: been whispers of a possible postponement, though I don't think

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Speaker 3: that will happen because this is the game on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 3: and Giving us. The Steelers are undefeated and the Ravens

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Speaker 3: are kind of on the teetering on the edge here.

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Speaker 3: This is big games. I doubt it gets canceled, but stuck.

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Speaker 3: What do you think about the Ravens here in this

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Speaker 3: desperation spot. You would think at least the effort from

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Speaker 3: them will be top notch.

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Speaker 1: Look, I would love for this game to be on

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Speaker 1: Thursday night Ravens Steelers, but I hope for my wallet

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Speaker 1: and others who've tailed me that it gets postponed to Sunday,

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Speaker 1: not only because Kalais Campbell. Brandon Williams will most likely

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Speaker 1: play if it's moved to Sunday because they're out on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: But I can give my money back on my plus

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Speaker 1: three and a half that I bet ten minutes before

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Speaker 1: the COVID news broke. So I do think that if

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Speaker 1: you can get fined, you might have to wait till

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Speaker 1: after the Steelers give. If you could find like the

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Speaker 1: Ravens twenty to one to win the Super Bowl, take it.

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Speaker 1: And the reason is they have to figure some things

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Speaker 1: out on offense, which I'll get into, but they're gonna

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Speaker 1: They're gonna make the playoffs. I mean, even if they

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Speaker 1: lose to the Steelers, they still have on their schedule

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Speaker 1: the Bengals now without Barrow at home, the Jags at home,

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Speaker 1: the Giants at home, and the Cowboys at home. So

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Speaker 1: those are ten wins. On defense, they have arguably the

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Speaker 1: best defense in the NFL. They have all the pieces

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Speaker 1: that they need, and two of those most important pieces

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Speaker 1: are Brandon Williams and Kalaias Campbell. Up front. They're two

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Speaker 1: of their best run defenders, and without them, they just

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Speaker 1: can't defend the run. When they're not there eating blocks.

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Speaker 1: It exposes Patrick Queen, who's been horrendous when he's not

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Speaker 1: doesn't have space to just run free, and Lake Harrison,

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Speaker 1: their rookie linebackers are very small, they're quick, and that

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Speaker 1: they can't really shed blocks and they're getting crushed in

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Speaker 1: run defense. The difference in run defense without Khalais Campbell

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Speaker 1: and Brandon Williams is just massive. And if you look

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Speaker 1: the last time these two teams played, they held the

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Speaker 1: Steelers the two hundred and twenty total yards, completely shut

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Speaker 1: him down. This is how the Ravens their front seven looked. Hey,

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Speaker 1: Kalais Campbell won't play, Brandon Williams won't play, Panel McPhee

336
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Speaker 1: outside linebacker, won't play, Jimmy Smith might not play. So

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Speaker 1: and who knows that there's going to be other people.

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Speaker 1: So their defense is obviously just a shell of itself.

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Speaker 1: Now for this particular matchup, I don't necessarily think the

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Speaker 1: Steelers will really take advantage of the weak Ravens run defense.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers haven't been running the ball well at all

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Speaker 1: this year, and they don't have a Derrick Henry and

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Speaker 1: their offensive line is just playing much worse. So on

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Speaker 1: that side of the ball, I think the Ravens will

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Speaker 1: hang and yeah, this will be a Max Effer game

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Speaker 1: gets the Titans. It was such poor tackling across the

347
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Speaker 1: board of misstackles that yeah, this team will be fired up.

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Speaker 1: They have the corners even if Jimmy Smith isn't there.

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Speaker 1: And I just don't think the Steelers' offense is that good.

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Speaker 1: It's average at best. And Roethlisberger was limited with a

351
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Speaker 1: quad first time he popped up on the injury report,

352
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Speaker 1: same with Juju Schuster today. But the Steelers have played

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Speaker 1: the easiest schedule in the NFL to date.

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Speaker 2: This look.

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Speaker 1: Look, here's the defenses they faced ranked seventh, tenth, seventh

356
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Speaker 1: was the Ravens. By the way they scored, they got

357
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Speaker 1: they had two hundred and twenty yards, thirteenth, sixteenth, twenty second,

358
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Speaker 1: twenty sixth, twenty eighth, twenty ninth, thirtieth and thirty first.

359
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Speaker 2: They basically, I mean, they basically faced.

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Speaker 1: Every worst defense in the NFL. How about the offenses

361
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Speaker 1: that they faced twenty second, twenty third, twenty fourth, twenty fifth,

362
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Speaker 1: twenty sixth, twenty seventh, thirty, first, thirty, second and fourth,

363
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Speaker 1: fourteenth and third the Titans, and the fourteenth is the Ravens.

364
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Speaker 1: So they they faced from a DVA perspective, one one

365
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Speaker 1: top ten defense. I guess Denver's in there now, and

366
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 1: the Ravens dominated them. They face three backup quarterbacks, Lowton, Triscoll,

367
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 1: and Gilbert. But that said, their defense is very good.

368
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Speaker 1: I don't think anyone will argue that it's one of

369
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Speaker 1: the best defenses in the NFL. The Ravens still have

370
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Speaker 1: one of the best defense in NFL. Their run defense

371
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Speaker 1: without these guys is not that great, but I don't

372
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Speaker 1: think the Steelers could take advantage. So I think this

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Speaker 1: is an under. I think it's an undergame without all

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Speaker 1: the injuries, and I played under forty six, I'd play

375
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Speaker 1: under forty five. Still down to I wouldn't go forty four,

376
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Speaker 1: but I'd play under forty four and a half. Teams

377
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: have adjusted to what the Ravens want to do. Lamar

378
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 1: Jackson loves throwing into zone defenses, and he's not the

379
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 1: most accurate passer in the world. Throwing in demand demand coverage,

380
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 1: and that's what teams are doing more often now. I

381
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Speaker 1: think they're gonna have to run themar a lot. They're

382
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 1: gonna have to do a lot more. I mean this,

383
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Speaker 1: you could argue it's their season. We don't know what's

384
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Speaker 1: gonna happen with the rest of the AFC. I know

385
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 1: they have a really easy schedule down the line, but

386
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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna have to run them a wild

387
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Speaker 1: You're gonna have to design a lot of runs here

388
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Speaker 1: because the Steelers have slow linebackers and he put up Look,

389
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 1: the Ravens put up four hundred and seventy yards against

390
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Speaker 1: the Steelers defense. So the Steelers team is overrated. They're

391
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 1: ten to zero, but they've played nobody, so I think

392
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Speaker 1: the Ravens can hang around here. The injuries are just

393
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Speaker 1: a killer. But I think this line's getting out of

394
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Speaker 1: hand now. I loved it at three and a half,

395
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 1: assuming even assuming that Campbell and Williams might not play.

396
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Speaker 1: Now that I wouldn't have played at Knowing who's out

397
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 1: now and knowing that they're not practicing, and like it's

398
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 1: on a short week, it's makes it a lot tougher.

399
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: But at five five and a half, I would lean Ravens.

400
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 1: This game should be close. But my favorite play here

401
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,959
Speaker 1: now is the under But the Ravens have to adjust.

402
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 1: They have to adjust to the league because the league

403
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 1: is adjusted to them. The defense could win a game

404
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: or two in the playoffs, but that's the ceiling.

405
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 3: It's really fascinating because the Ravens are starting to remind

406
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 3: me of the Steelers in a way.

407
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 2: It's like really good.

408
00:20:55,680 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 3: Defense and an offense that could be their downfall. But

409
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 3: it is odd that you know as good as Greg Roman,

410
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: and Greg Roman has done great jobs with like Tyrod Taylor,

411
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: Colin Kaepernick, like he's he's taken guys that were supposed

412
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 3: to have little to no future or at least, you know,

413
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 3: long term as starter futures in the NFL and gotten

414
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,159
Speaker 3: some really good seasons out of them. But like, I

415
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 3: think it's just weird that he hasn't anticipated some of

416
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 3: these adjustments because it was clear I thought from last

417
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 3: postseasons lost to Tennessee that Okay, you go through the season,

418
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 3: you just rampage teams. Lamar is putting the fear in

419
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 3: the fear of God and defenses, and then Tennessee figures

420
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 3: you out and it just seems like, yeah, I get

421
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,199
Speaker 3: that there's been injuries, but that's another thing you have

422
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 3: to anticipate.

423
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Speaker 2: I mean everyone talked about it.

424
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 3: You know, the Ravens were like one of the most

425
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 3: lucky teams injury wise, Like they had great injury with

426
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 3: last year. So like, I just feel like there wasn't

427
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 3: a lot of anticipation and it's setting.

428
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 2: Lamar up to fail in a way.

429
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 3: If like you have your your best receiver is Mark Andrews,

430
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 3: and you know, I know he has the he's dealing

431
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: he deals with diabetes if I'm not mistaken, right, Yeah,

432
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 3: So like I know he's not maybe not gonna play

433
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 3: every snap. He's not a great blocker all the time.

434
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 3: So you know, you use a Marcus Slower receiver, but

435
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 3: you have your best receiver and he comes off the

436
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 3: field like thirty you know, percent or more of your

437
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 3: past plays. Then you have your other best receiver and

438
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 3: Marquise Brown, and you know, you haven't really adjusted to

439
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,479
Speaker 3: the fact that the defenses are playing less zone and

440
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 3: you're using him on a lot of low percentage routes,

441
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 3: which would be fine if like he was you know,

442
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 3: a decoy who could open things up for other guys,

443
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 3: But in reality, the other guys are Miles Boykin, who

444
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 3: barely ever gets open. Devin Duverney, who's average, you know,

445
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 3: great on special team's average depth of target is like

446
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 3: five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. De Brian Now

447
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 3: who's average depth of target was two last week, and

448
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 3: he gets no separation. A fullback or the second tight

449
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 3: end is on the field over half the time, and

450
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 3: then the running backs don't really give you much in

451
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 3: the past game outside of maybe Dobbins, who you know,

452
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 3: up until very recently was kind of just being taken

453
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 3: off the field for Gus Edwards even in passing situations

454
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 3: for no rhyme or reasons.

455
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 2: So it's like, who is Lamar Jackson supposed to throw

456
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 2: to it?

457
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 3: And it'd be one thing if like your play action

458
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 3: game was just pristine, but that's not happening this year.

459
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 3: And it just feels like this was like a slow

460
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 3: to adjust situation. Now, you know, part of it is

461
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 3: just everything kind of went wrong at once. But for

462
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 3: a coordinator who has just taken these quarterbacks and you know,

463
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 3: kind of devised these great plans for them to succeed,

464
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 3: it's just odd that, you know, I mean, when Lamar

465
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: called them out, it's kind of clear. I think Lamar

466
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: is like, Okay, you know enough, and you know, it's

467
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: just kind of odd to me that, like it's takes

468
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: so long for him to flip that switch and kind

469
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 3: of change it up.

470
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: I lean Ravens too.

471
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 3: I think this line is a little bit out of hand,

472
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: and I just think we're gonna get Like you've talked

473
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 3: about this so many times, like Mike Tomlins a Rara coach,

474
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 3: and just everything that's kind of developed with you know,

475
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 3: the COVID and and the Ravens offense struggling and Bill

476
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: Belichick throwing shade and the Steelers are undefeated. It's like

477
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 3: it took a lot of the Rara out out of

478
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 3: this for for his side, and that you kind of

479
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 3: want in this divisional matchup, all all the adversity and

480
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 3: kind of the desperation favors of Ravens there. So I

481
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 3: lean Ravens, and yeah, I agree on the under I

482
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 3: think I think, you know, though, the Steelers their offenses.

483
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: I've talked about this, You've talked about it.

484
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: It's it's not great, you know, so you're just hoping

485
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 3: like no crazy turnover, look things happen or Rayley McCloud,

486
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 3: like jet sweep ady yarder, but I think I think

487
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 3: we'll see a lot better Ravens team uh this weekend.

488
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: YEP raves on special teams to remember that as always.

489
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 3: So so you know, for you guys out there, if

490
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 3: you want to see all the things we're betting for

491
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 3: this game, I'm sure I'll.

492
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 2: Throw in some props into the app as well.

493
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 3: I'd be sure to follow us on the Action Network

494
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 3: aap Stucket Stucky two, I'm at Chris Raybon and check

495
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 3: out Action network dot com or the app for all

496
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: of the content on the three games and into the

497
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 3: rest of the weekend. Then, and speaking of Thanksgiving football,

498
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 3: betmgm has a great sign up offer for the Turkey

499
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 3: Day games. New customers can bet one dollar and win

500
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,159
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501
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 3: touchdown on Thanksgiving. Just sign up and make your first

502
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:42,520
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503
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,960
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505
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506
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: if any of the team's playing on Thanksgiving score a touchdown.

507
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Speaker 3: As a reminder, you must be twenty one or older

508
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: and physically located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Devada, or

509
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 3: West Virginia. Police gamble responsibly again with problem call twenty

510
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,600
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511
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 3: in Colorado and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey,

512
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 3: in West Virginia or one one hundred nine with it

513
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 3: in Indiana. Promo offer not available in Nevada.

514
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: All right, it's.

515
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 3: Enough Thursday for now. Still got Sunday to get to.

516
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 3: Let's get in to the week number twelve Sunday six.

517
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 1: Pack, Thursday for action. Let's crack often the Sunday six pack.

518
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 3: All right, we are on to week twelve. You are

519
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 3: up thirty two twenty six. I mean the Eagles just

520
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 3: just Carson. I don't know how Carson Wentz does this

521
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 3: weekend in week out. It's like, I feel like when

522
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 3: the Eagles approach the red zone now it's almost like

523
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: an automatic that if they're approaching the red zone early

524
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 3: in the game, Carson Wentz is just gonna throw a

525
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: pick like it's it's becoming absurd.

526
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: And this asshole goes down and gets scores a touchdown late.

527
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: So then I because I bet the two plus three

528
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: and a half, so then I have to regret and

529
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 1: think about the safety detail because that ended up being

530
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: the difference.

531
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: It was disgusting.

532
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 3: So Carson Wentz is just he's just been a nightmare.

533
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 3: I still don't think the Browns are very good, and

534
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 3: now it's like they get to win over the Eagles

535
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: are seven and three, their point differential is still negative

536
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 3: twenty three, and now they face a tanking Jaguar squad,

537
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 3: so you know, it's still kind of tough to bet

538
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 3: against them. So just did not enjoy Carson Wentz's performance

539
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 3: in that spot. But let's get into the Week twelve

540
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 3: six pack. I have the first pick. I'm going with

541
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans plus four for my number one pick

542
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 3: of the Week twelve Sunday six pack plus four at

543
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 3: bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action Network

544
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 3: podcast Listen Tennessee. They've been here now for what maybe

545
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 3: the last ever since they inserted Ryan Tannehill, which is

546
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: around week seven last year. You look at the Colts,

547
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 3: what do they do last year? They started off pretty good,

548
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,120
Speaker 3: faded down the stretch. They shouldn't have won that game

549
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 3: versus the Packers. I don't know what happened to the Packers.

550
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it's it wasn't anything egregious as

551
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 3: far as like, Okay, Aaron Rodgers has it belt down

552
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: under pressure, but they get up twenty fourteen and and

553
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 3: the Colt the Packers scored three points the rest of

554
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: the game.

555
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: So I'm not really sold on this on this Colts team.

556
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 2: Have been saying it all year.

557
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 3: I think they play, they have some effort on defense,

558
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 3: but the Titans are a team that they have enough.

559
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 2: Offense to straight up outscore the Colts.

560
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 3: And on the other side, Philip Rivers, you have the

561
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 3: you know, he's got a sore toe, which I don't

562
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,479
Speaker 3: know what that means. They're subbing in Jacoby Brissett all

563
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 3: the time. Philip Rivers, I mean watching agree that gave

564
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: it felt like it didn't even feel like the Colts won.

565
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 3: I mean, Philip Rivers was just you know, his stats

566
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 3: were decent, but you watch him play and I think

567
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 3: the every time that he drops back to pass, like

568
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 3: Frank Reich and that coach is that has to just

569
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: be holding their breath. And and to top it off,

570
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 3: the the offensive line is someone can assisted It's like

571
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: they have talent on paper and they make some good blocks.

572
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 3: But there was a point in the game where they

573
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 3: could have put away the Packers. And what it was

574
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 3: there like five straight penalties and a six place sequence

575
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 3: or something ridiculous like that.

576
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: I mean they had nine.

577
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then you look at the previous game, which

578
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: the Colts that ended up winning in you know, the

579
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 3: score looked pretty lopsided.

580
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 2: But the Titans and this is this is.

581
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 3: What you worry about when you bet on the Titans.

582
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 3: But well, was it a block punt? Massive special teams

583
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: errors that just essentially handed the Colts the game.

584
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: But now you're looking at the Colts be a favor

585
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: by more than a field goal. I don't buy it.

586
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: This is a team.

587
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: The Colts are a team that could win any game.

588
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 3: They could also lose every game. Dereck Henry got got

589
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: going against them in that first matchup. You know, that's

590
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: you know, a little bit of the worry. He's like, Okay,

591
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: you know, is Derek Henry going to be able to

592
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: have a big game? But this is the time when

593
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: Henry starts eating up every single season And you just

594
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 3: look at the Titans play and I just think they

595
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 3: have an edge to them that I don't know if

596
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 3: the Colts haven't. Like the Colts have been the Colts

597
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 3: have been getting lucky over these past two weeks. You know,

598
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 3: they were lucky with those special teams mishaps and what

599
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 3: could have been a lot tighter game, and then they

600
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 3: were lucky that the Packers and just kind of went

601
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: away and just stepped aside for thirty some odd minutes

602
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: of football last Sunday. So, you know, kudos to the Coats.

603
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 3: Frank Reich always does a great job. But a divisional

604
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 3: game late in the year getting more than a field

605
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 3: goal for a team that I personally think is better

606
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: even with the defensive struggles because offense is more important

607
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: than defense, and the Titans have a top three offens

608
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 3: according to DVA.

609
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 4: A J.

610
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: Brown just makes like one ridiculous play a game.

611
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: And we've seen the thing about the outliers for the Titans,

612
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: like we've seen them actually sustain this outlying success in

613
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 3: the things that really matter, which is which is like

614
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 3: red zone offense.

615
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:04,479
Speaker 2: So yeah, the tight's gonna make you nervous on special teams.

616
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 3: Sure, maybe don't bet them is a favorite, but just

617
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 3: as risky as betting on or more. I would actually say,

618
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: after watching last week, the betting on Goskowski is betting

619
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: on Philip Rivers to cover you a game and and

620
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 3: get a third straight win.

621
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 2: So love the Titans this week. I expect them to

622
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 2: win this game, to be honest.

623
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: Fair, but it's I got bad news for It's plus three.

624
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: I bet them GM.

625
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 3: Okay, I mean, like I said, I've taken it. They're

626
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: gonna I think they're gonna win, so it doesn't matter me.

627
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: I'll give you three and a half. I bet plus fours.

628
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I'll give you three and a half,

629
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna ask for a half point somewhere else

630
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: at some point today. Thanksgiving generous. I make this too.

631
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit of an overreaction to

632
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 1: you know, the Colts beating the Packers. Everyone saw it,

633
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: the Colts beating the Titans a couple of weeks before.

634
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: I mean that the Titans offense, despite some of the

635
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: offensive line injuries, it's been awesome. And yeah, this is

636
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: the time where Derrick Henry just starts abusing tired defenses

637
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: and breaking tackles. You saw in the game winner last week.

638
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: He's kind of like Joe Mixon's kind of like that too.

639
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 1: They just crush in November and December. Yeah, so I

640
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think the one thing to watch here, again,

641
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 1: it's Tuesday. There's just a lot of injuries on the

642
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: Titans offensive line. We'll see, but I don't think that

643
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: it would be enough to make me make this line

644
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: Colts minus three or above. Odorri Jackson is. I think

645
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: he's just a figment of our magagination. So all right,

646
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: for my first pick and the second overall on the

647
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

648
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: hold your nose after what we saw last week plus

649
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: three and a half at bet MGM at home against

650
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. Look, this is my first couple

651
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: picks are just gonna be pure Bilo Sell high spots

652
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: in the NFL, which are my favorite. Everyone. Last week

653
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: saw the Bucks look horrendous against the Rams, and kudos

654
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: to the Rams for that game plan, for their execution.

655
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: The Bucks tackling was so bad you expect a much

656
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: better effort from the defense. And I would hope that

657
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 1: Ali Marpt is back, which I thought he was gonna

658
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: play on Sunday, and when he doesn't play, he's one

659
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: of the best guards in the NFL. Everyone shuffles around

660
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: and moves positions, and the interior was so bad and

661
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 1: they couldn't get any run game going. Tom Brady might be,

662
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, just a little more washed than some

663
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: people think. Just the fourth time they played a top

664
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: ten defense and you couldn't do anything. But they were

665
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: in third and long all day. They still shred average

666
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 1: to bad defenses all year long, and still have the

667
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: talent on the outside. They should be able to run

668
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: the ball here against the Chiefs, who are still one

669
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs

670
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: also aren't getting any pressure, like it's crazy. It's basically

671
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 1: just Chris Jones, Frank Clark's having an awful year. There's

672
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: no linebackers here, there's no edge rushers. They have to

673
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: scheme up all their pressure, and they've played no They

674
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: have not impressed me against any good offenses this year.

675
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: Everyone was so impressed with the Ravens game. Look, we've

676
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: seen what the Ravens have looked like since. But they

677
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: played the Raiders twice and the Raiders put up with

678
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 1: seventy five points and cars thrown for six hundred yards

679
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 1: and six touchdowns. This defense is not great. There's a

680
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 1: reason that they're going out and they're trying to get

681
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: DeAndre Baker and there's just not many people playing them

682
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 1: on If Market's back, which he should be, it's like

683
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: a third week of concussion. That's huge to try and

684
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: contain Chris Jones, who can get so much pressure up

685
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 1: the middle, which can mess with Brady that offense. But

686
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: I think Tampa will moved the ball well. Tampa still

687
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 1: have Look, I know what happened last week. I still

688
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 1: have is a top five team in the NFL right now,

689
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: I think they're fifth or sixth. I had a downgrade them,

690
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: I upgraded the Rams, I stole the Chiefs. Is the

691
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: number one team in the NFL. But I make this

692
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: line like one one and a half, so I will

693
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: gladly take three and a half. It's basically just an

694
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: overreaction to what we saw last week. Maybe it's just

695
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 1: because Brady, like we say, it's Brady's bedtime, past Brady's bedtime,

696
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: but this isn't an elite Chiefs defense, and the Bucks

697
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 1: have shown with all that talent that they can still

698
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 1: move the ball against average to below average defenses when

699
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: they're playing elite defenses. So far there's definitely a problem.

700
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: But hey, look Brady after a loss, talk about it

701
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: all the time. Thirty three and twelve against the spread,

702
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: seventy three point three percent covering by an average of

703
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,720
Speaker 1: six points per game, forty five percent ROI. That's number

704
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: one out of two hundred and three quarterbacks in their

705
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 1: bat Labs database. So I'm sure you'll get a completely

706
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 1: focused effort here from the Bucks. I know they're in

707
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: a short week, but the Chiefs are coming across country

708
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: after basically locking up the division. I'm sure they're offenses

709
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: for points as it always does. But the Bucks I

710
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 1: have a really good defense of a chance to maybe

711
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 1: get a stop or two. I think this gab will

712
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: come down to the wire with a chock me at

713
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: the Bucks one No, with a chocolate at Cheese one No.

714
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: I'm basically just taking the three, and if it was

715
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 1: two and a half two probably wouldn't take it. But

716
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,439
Speaker 1: last week's performance against the Rams gets us the hook here.

717
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 1: I'm buying low on the Bucks and taking three and

718
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: a half points at home.

719
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is I know one of

720
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: these fascinating spots because it's like I was like joking

721
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 3: but not joking the first time. I said, maybe Tom

722
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: Brady is just sleepy. You know, he had like that

723
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 3: that senior moment against the Bears, and they did. Then

724
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: they do it again against the the Giants, but they

725
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: pull out a wad Okay.

726
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 2: Then they do it against the Saints, then they do

727
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 2: it against the Rams.

728
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: It's like, I mean, this is and it kind of

729
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 3: also makes you think back to and this is the

730
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 3: one thing that concerns me, like I hate, hate, hate,

731
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 3: hate the fact that I'm all ready to like bet

732
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 3: on the Bucks here and they yeah, I haven't one

733
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 3: and a half as well, but I hate that they're

734
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 3: going against like the best coaching staff in the NFL.

735
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 3: Because I am also starting to think about a little

736
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 3: more about what Danie Lawski said, like is it it

737
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 3: seems so much talent and they have so many Like

738
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: is it is it game planning? I because like last

739
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 3: last on Monday Night, you look at the way that

740
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 3: the defense is set up. I know Marp it was out,

741
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 3: and I know the Rams, you know, have Aaron Donald,

742
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 3: but like there was.

743
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: Just it seemed to just be no intention of handing.

744
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 3: The football off, like it wasn't I don't know if

745
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 3: they couldn't run the ball, they just didn't try.

746
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: Like this was kind of a fifty attempt Brady game

747
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 2: the whole way.

748
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 3: And like the Rams did that too, but they like

749
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 3: they had a reason, like the Bucks defense in run.

750
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: Defending a run is excellent, but the Rams you can

751
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 3: you can run on the Rams, and the Bucks have

752
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 3: played a lot better when they can run. And I

753
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 3: just I mean and in Brady's just going to Antonio

754
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 3: Brown every play, like is this like is there just

755
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 3: kind of like some some friction maybe between like Arians

756
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 3: and what do you want to do and then Brady

757
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 3: and kind of letting him hang himself or something, because

758
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: it's like, I just I feel like there's something a

759
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 3: little off here between Arians and Brady and just uncharacteristic moments.

760
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the one thing that gives me confidence

761
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: in that department is because I do think establishing the

762
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 1: run and having a complimentary run game is important for Brady.

763
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: Also when you play the Chiefs, it's important because not

764
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 1: only can you run on them, he keeps Mahomes on

765
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 1: the sideline after they put up that stinker against the

766
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 1: Saints when I backed them when they went to Carolina,

767
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones round the ball twenty three times for one

768
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety two yards. The Bucks ran the ball

769
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 1: in total in that game thirty seven times for two

770
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 1: hundred and ten yards in that game. And the Panthers

771
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 1: are a comparable run defense to the Chiefs. Obviously, the

772
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,959
Speaker 1: Chiefs have a much better offense, but that Brady still

773
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 1: third nine times we threw were three hundred and forty

774
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: one yards. But he had the run game there, and

775
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: he had more manageable third downs. He wasn't just in

776
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: spread shotgun on third and nine trying to throw slants

777
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: to Antonio Brown the entire game. So I think the

778
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: run game is gonna They should be able to run

779
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: the ball here. That'll help them, That'll keep my homes

780
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: off the sideline. I think that they've shown that they

781
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: can do it against average to below average defenses. I

782
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: think the Chiefs overall are a really bad run defense

783
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 1: and average overall defense. Yeah, but there's something that is

784
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 1: off against these just the offense goes to shit against

785
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 1: any defense with a pulse. But I have to back

786
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: them here based on my number at plus three and

787
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: a half.

788
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 3: Oh no, like totally the right play, And I'm surpri prized.

789
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 3: We have come to the end of talking about this

790
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 3: game and you have not mentioned what I think is

791
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 3: is a key loss for the Chiefs on special teams

792
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 3: Iron Pringle, like he's he's one of their best special

793
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 3: teams players, like special teams guy over here stuck.

794
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 2: I'm surprised, man, Like I thought for sure you were

795
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 2: gonna drop a Pringle reference, but yeah, he got.

796
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: Well, tell you worry because the other special teams thing

797
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: is ever since on that I don't even know who

798
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 1: it was. Was it Romo? Actually?

799
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 5: Who?

800
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: I like? Someone on a national broadcast was like, Harrison

801
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: Bucker is the best. It was during the Raiders game.

802
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 1: He's the best kicker in the NFL since then, which

803
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard. Since that

804
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: he's missed like he leads the league and missed extra points.

805
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:21,240
Speaker 1: He misses an extra point once a week. So if

806
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are down by three late and Mahomes goes

807
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: all the way down the field scores a touchdown, as

808
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 1: he's prone to do, maybe Bucker misses an extra point

809
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: first and we cover the plus three and a half.

810
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 6: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

811
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 6: to make sure you know about the locked On podcast

812
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 6: network locked on as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

813
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You were locked

814
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: onn of the Dallas marriage.

815
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 2: Well, came everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

816
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: Let's go.

817
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

818
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

819
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

820
00:40:55,000 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 6: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

821
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 3: For my number two pick of the week, number twelve

822
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack and the third overall pick, I'm going

823
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 3: with the Atlanta Falcons plus three home dog letdown spot

824
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 3: against the Las Vegas Raiders, who just play their best

825
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,720
Speaker 3: football against the Kansas City Chiefs.

826
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: And like it's becoming so.

827
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 3: Absurd with this Raiders team and how good they're playing

828
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs that not only are they, you know,

829
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 3: putting up big numbers on her defense, but Patrick Mahoons

830
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,919
Speaker 3: has two picks this year, both against the Raiders, maybe

831
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 3: three hundred attempts against everyone else.

832
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: Doesn't have a pick. First of all, that's just ridiculous.

833
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 3: Like in the age where we're talking about you know,

834
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 3: Lamar and him struggling, It's like Patrick Mahomes just continues

835
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 3: to bea But I digress. The Raiders short week, you

836
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 3: just like had a game that you know, emotionally, I

837
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 3: think it's going to be a letdown. And this Falcons team,

838
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 3: I liked them last week. They didn't show up on

839
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 3: a road. Sean Payton, great game plan on both, you know,

840
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 3: both sides of the ball really and the Saints defense

841
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 3: starting to come together. But Falcons defense still, I think

842
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 3: is improved a lot since you had Raemar takeover for

843
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 3: Dan Quinn. And this defense for the Raiders this is

844
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 3: not like the Saints defense. With the Saints defense is

845
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 3: number number five top five now in DVA, you're going

846
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 3: into Raiders defense that is nothing like the New Orleans

847
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 3: Saints defense. And last week the Falcons were to play

848
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 3: because you were trying to take advantage of some uncertainty

849
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 3: there with Taysom Hill.

850
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 2: You know, would he be able to make it through

851
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 2: a game.

852
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,760
Speaker 3: Of course, you know Sean Bayton, he wins that round,

853
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 3: so you know, salute to him. But now you're you're

854
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 3: going through a letdown spot. You have the number twenty

855
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: four defense in Dvoa. The Saints were number three, So

856
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 3: the Falcons scored nine points. That is very uncharacteristic. Julio

857
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 3: probably misses this game, to be honest, but it's a

858
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 3: lot different for the Falcons to lose Julio mid game

859
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 3: when they think, you know, when they playing on them

860
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 3: playing because their receivers all practice in very specific spots

861
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 3: if you notice, you know when, like it will be

862
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 3: like Blake behind Ridley and the Kiss behind Jones and

863
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 3: Powell behind Gates. But when they have a week to prepare,

864
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 3: you know, for Julio absence or Ridley absence, then that's

865
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 3: when you kind of see them mix things up. I

866
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 3: think the Kius does have some talent, but this is

867
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 3: just a by who spot by well Sell High. You know,

868
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:43,280
Speaker 3: the Raiders didn't even win last week, but apparently they've arrived,

869
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 3: you know the Falcons really this should have been.

870
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 2: Their first loss in the in the Morris era.

871
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 3: They you know, Todd Growing mistakenly scored a touchdown against

872
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 3: the Lions until they lost that game too, But this

873
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 3: is clearer.

874
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 2: We've been a better team. You look at the defense

875
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 2: in the five games with.

876
00:43:56,880 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 3: Quinn thirty eight forty thirty thirty twenty three allowed average

877
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 3: thirty two point two in the five games under Raheem

878
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 3: Morris twenty three, twenty three, seventeen, twenty seven, twenty four

879
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 3: a lot more respectable. I think Kean O'Neil helps a lot.

880
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 3: I thought Sean Payton just put on a clinic last week.

881
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 3: The Falcons linebackers looked confused all game. They didn't know

882
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 3: whether a look at Kamara, whether it look at Taysom Hill.

883
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 3: They forgot to cover Emmanuel Sanders at times. I mean,

884
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 3: just just kind of a bad game that But now

885
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 3: you're back at home and this is like my one

886
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 3: of my favorite biloves, you know, so it might seem

887
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,919
Speaker 3: like an odd player one that's kind of like uncomfortable,

888
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 3: but you look at these spots, and especially with an

889
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 3: offense like this, with you know, still some playmakers going

890
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,360
Speaker 3: against a bad defense, even if Julio's out teams that

891
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 3: score under ten points, and it's a really kind of

892
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 3: a swift discrepancy. It's like when when the market, when

893
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 3: the casual better season team that gets held under ten

894
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 3: points almost always is their value. On the other side

895
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 3: in the next week, underdogs who have scored under ten

896
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: points uh the week before versus a favorite as long

897
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 3: as that favorite isn't coming off of buye are two

898
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty one, one seventy four and ten fifty

899
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 3: nine percent on you know, over four hundred game sample

900
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 3: size dating all the way back to two thousand and three.

901
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 3: That's a fifteen percent ROI this season. In case you're

902
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 3: rendering now talking about trend going back to two thousand

903
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 3: and three at fifty nine percent, is it?

904
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: Is it stale eight and one this season?

905
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 3: Uh? This is just one of the best BILO spots

906
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 3: in in NFL betting home dog for the Falcons in

907
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 3: a game you know, Raiders have been playing real well,

908
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 3: but they didn't make a stop and you know for

909
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 3: a large portion of that game against the Chiefs, and

910
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 3: the Falcons just as easy as they can kind of

911
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 3: lay an egg, they can get right back to it,

912
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 3: especially with a week to prepare if one of their

913
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 3: key guys is going to be out. So love the

914
00:45:54,800 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 3: Falcons at plus three the home dog against the Rats.

915
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,799
Speaker 3: Oh and one more note another one. It's interesting to

916
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 3: point out when you see when you see spots like this,

917
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 3: it also kind of goes into the Bilo narrative, but

918
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,720
Speaker 3: unders that you know, open lower than three, and usually

919
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 3: it's a round two five they get steamed to three

920
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:21,440
Speaker 3: thirty eight and eighteen sixty eight percent. So there's just

921
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 3: a just a great spot where no one's gonna trust

922
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 3: the Falcons after they don't even put up ten points

923
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 3: last week.

924
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I'll be on this. I'm hoping. I'm

925
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: hoping that Julio plays, and I'm sure if he gets

926
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 1: announced in this line will probably tick down, but I

927
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 1: make it one. And with both of these offenses going

928
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 1: up against questionable defenses, probably a coin flip game and

929
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 1: maybe who has the ball last. Yeah, there is a

930
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: letdown here in a Bilow cell high spot, which is

931
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 1: why you're probably getting three. And yeah, I think that

932
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 1: the Falcons defense have been playing a lot better over

933
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,320
Speaker 1: the past couple of weeks. I think that they prepped

934
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: for Jamis and then they didn't know who was going

935
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 1: to play, and then so there was you know, Friday,

936
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 1: they did get announced that Tayson was going to start,

937
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:02,959
Speaker 1: but you probably already implemented your game plan and maybe

938
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,439
Speaker 1: you were doing fifty to fifty and so I think

939
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,439
Speaker 1: that the Falcons deeds and playing a little better than

940
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 1: they were earlier in the year, and they shouldn't have

941
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 1: any problem matter, I should have any problems before last

942
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 1: week playing extremely good football moving the ball against Raiders t.

943
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,839
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960
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 1: For my second pick of the Sunday six back and

961
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: the fourth overall. I am going with the San Francisco

962
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: forty Niners plus seven at bet MGM.

963
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 2: They do you want that half point? You can?

964
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll take that out. Take that half now, thank you, sir.

965
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: At the Los Angeles Rams situationally, I mean, look, this

966
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 1: is a if the Rams lost by for seven three,

967
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:52,279
Speaker 1: this line's probably five or six. They the Rams are

968
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: traveling again. That was their fifth trip out east. They

969
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: are now in a short week coming back out west.

970
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 1: It's got catch up to him eventually. While the forty

971
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 1: nine ers are coming off of a bye and they're

972
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 1: basically playing for their season. I mean, they lose this game,

973
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 1: they're out of playoff contention and they should get maybe again.

974
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: It's Tuesday night, a number of players back. I think

975
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,440
Speaker 1: Richard Sherman's gonna come back. That'll be huge. Jason Barrett

976
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 1: is playing really well at one corner spot. Deebo Samuel

977
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 1: they can just they just need him on the offensive end.

978
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: They could do so many things on them he should

979
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: come back. Moster and Coleman they might come back as well,

980
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 1: so this team might be a lot healthier. Now there's

981
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: a big elf in the room. Is there's a bunch

982
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 1: of forty nine ers on the COVID list. You have

983
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 1: our six starters, Armstead kin Law. They obviously need them

984
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 1: against the Rams. I you Trent Williams, trem Williams, but

985
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play DJ Jones, so that won't

986
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 1: help if all those guys are out. But I'm hoping

987
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 1: that they're contract, they're tracing and then they will be

988
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 1: able to play. But look, the first time that the

989
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 1: Rams played the forty nine Ers, the forty nine Ers

990
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: shut them down. It was twenty four to nine late

991
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter before late Rams touchdown. Especially now

992
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: if they get Sherman back, they excel at stopping the run,

993
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:20,279
Speaker 1: stopping the short pass. It's how you really contain this

994
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 1: Rams offense. You're also giving McVeigh a short week, you know,

995
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 1: so he's it's not like he has seven he's got

996
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: to fly back. He has this full seven days to

997
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 1: prepare a game plan for the forty nine ers. I'm

998
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 1: sure he spent every waking hour preparing for the Bucks,

999
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 1: so that can only help the forty nine ers here,

1000
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 1: who've had two weeks to prepare for the Rams. So

1001
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot to get the

1002
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 1: forty nine ers catching seven, seven and a half in

1003
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 1: a by low cell high spot. And yeah, I think

1004
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 1: that this is the look the forty nine ers have

1005
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 1: been playing. Look, they went to the Saints and they

1006
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 1: were catching ten at the Saints and they should have

1007
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 1: won and covered with these if not for some muff

1008
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 1: punt totally don't muff any punts and some awful official calls,

1009
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:14,919
Speaker 1: but they should have covered that with these. I thought

1010
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 1: that line should have been like six or seven. And

1011
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 1: now they're going to the Rams. I think the Saints

1012
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 1: are a couple points better than the Rams, so I

1013
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:23,879
Speaker 1: think this line should be like four and a half

1014
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 1: five once you account for a short week and the

1015
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:28,800
Speaker 1: forty nine ers coming off of a bye getting a

1016
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 1: little healthier, assuming some of these guys in the COVID

1017
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 1: this come back. So I think it's a good spot,

1018
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 1: good matchup, and forty nine is be able to run

1019
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: the ball a little bit. Yeah, give you the forty

1020
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 1: nine ers here plus seven plus seven after their season

1021
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 1: let down, sell high on the rams here.

1022
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree. This is a game I had

1023
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: my eye on.

1024
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 3: I have it at five, you have it at four

1025
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 3: and a half, So we're pretty much in line with

1026
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 3: our power ratings for this spot. You guys, of course,

1027
00:51:55,760 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 3: can check out our pro lines in the action Net app,

1028
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 3: so those are kind of where you know, those are

1029
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 3: derived from from our projection straight up and shown some

1030
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 3: value here. I did want to get your opinion because

1031
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:13,360
Speaker 3: everything you said is one hundred percent correct. Just more generally,

1032
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 3: on these type of situations.

1033
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: COVID, things could go either way.

1034
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,839
Speaker 3: We haven't you know, for the most part, we've seen

1035
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 3: guys get activated, you know, day before the game or so.

1036
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 3: But how do you treat this from a betting perspective?

1037
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 3: Where on one hand, as it currently stands, there's probably

1038
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 3: I would say, a good you know, point and a

1039
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 3: half at least value on the niners, but also knowing

1040
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 3: that it could potentially move the other way and give

1041
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 3: you even more value if some guys get ruled out, Like,

1042
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 3: how how do you how do you treat this situation?

1043
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 2: Do you kind of hedge?

1044
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 3: Do you put like maybe half a unit of what

1045
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 3: you would usually play, like any any tips there.

1046
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:56,759
Speaker 1: And also home field isn't as as big by the

1047
00:52:56,800 --> 00:53:00,160
Speaker 1: way in divisional matchups, and I have home field on

1048
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:03,399
Speaker 1: one on average and aggregate. So and the situation here,

1049
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 1: that's why I have this a four and a half.

1050
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 1: Part of the reason in this case, I see a

1051
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: lot of value at four and a half. If I

1052
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 1: had to adjust for a lot of these players, I

1053
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:15,840
Speaker 1: would still have this line under seven. And if some

1054
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 1: of these players get ruled out, it's not great for

1055
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 1: the matchup. But the line is seven, what would it

1056
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 1: go to nine? I don't think it's going to cross ten. Now.

1057
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:30,359
Speaker 1: If the line was two plus two, then I would

1058
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,680
Speaker 1: probably wait because if they're ruled out, then I can

1059
00:53:33,680 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 1: get plus three. If they're ruled in and the line

1060
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 1: comes down and I have to take plus one or pick,

1061
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 1: it's not that much of a difference between plus two.

1062
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 1: So it's gonna depend on the discrepancy between where the

1063
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: number is and where my number is, and then also

1064
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,920
Speaker 1: where the actual spread sits around key numbers, et cetera.

1065
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 3: Definitely, and into tybow on it. With the Niners, a

1066
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 3: little bit of recency bias. You know, they've lost three

1067
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 3: straight games where they've been the underdog in all three,

1068
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 3: but for his career, Kyle Shanahan still covering as an

1069
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:14,719
Speaker 3: underdog at a fifty six percent clip. And before those

1070
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 3: three losses Saints Packers, Seahawks, their previous two games as

1071
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 3: an underdog were against the Patriots and the Rams. They

1072
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 3: won those games outright, thirty three to six over the

1073
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:32,279
Speaker 3: Patriots as a three point underdog, and then they were

1074
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:34,839
Speaker 3: two point underdog in a game I think we were

1075
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:36,879
Speaker 3: both on in a massive way.

1076
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 2: They won that game against the Rams, the same very Rams.

1077
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 3: So this is a The forty nine ers are kind

1078
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 3: of a mind fuck, for lack of a better term.

1079
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 3: They are usually at their best just when you write

1080
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 3: them off, and also kind of another great Bible, similar

1081
00:54:53,560 --> 00:55:00,120
Speaker 3: to the Falcons. A underdog, an underdog historically on a

1082
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,720
Speaker 3: three games straight up losing streak, regardless of what happened

1083
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 3: against the spread, but just straight up three game losing

1084
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 3: streak in that fourth game, after that losing after that

1085
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 3: three game losing streak one seventy one one six and

1086
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 3: nine fifty eight percent since two thousand and three, according

1087
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 3: to our Action Labs data, including eight and four against

1088
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:22,760
Speaker 3: the spread this season.

1089
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 2: So like that, Yeah, that just speaks still.

1090
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:26,879
Speaker 1: Up team lost three in a row, no one wants

1091
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 1: to beat them. You get an extra point.

1092
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 3: Or two, right, and that's that's that's what we're doing

1093
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 3: at this point in the year. I think, yeah, it's

1094
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 3: it's it's that time where you're just kind of playing,

1095
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 3: playing the market for kind of overreactions.

1096
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 1: All right.

1097
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 3: For the number five pick in the Sunday six pack,

1098
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,919
Speaker 3: my last pick, I am going with the New York

1099
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 3: Giants minus five and a half at bet MGM, the

1100
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:59,280
Speaker 3: official provider of the podcast. And this is really simple

1101
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 3: for me. Usually not a team I'm going to be

1102
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 3: betting on as a favorite, but Ryan Finley, I just

1103
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 3: think he's very bad at quarterbacking, and I think the

1104
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 3: Giants are very well coached team. And I think they

1105
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 3: were used red flags with Finley in that sometimes backup

1106
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 3: quarterbacks actually have an advantage, and in these kind of

1107
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 3: spots you don't have a film on them or whateveror not.

1108
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 3: But I think the two red flags I see with

1109
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 3: Finley are number one. You also usually see backup quarterbacks

1110
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 3: have some success in you know, when they come in

1111
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 3: relief because the defense hasn't prepared for him, and they

1112
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 3: can usually get a few passes off that did not

1113
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: happen for Ryan Finley in the spot against the Washington

1114
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:46,240
Speaker 3: football team.

1115
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 2: But on top of that, this isn't a new quarterback.

1116
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:54,800
Speaker 3: This is a guy who did get three starts around

1117
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 3: this time last year, and the Bengals failed to score

1118
00:56:58,360 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 3: thirteen points in any of those starts. So this is

1119
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 3: a game where I think the Giants are clearly the

1120
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 3: better team. I think Finley, you know, even from Burrow,

1121
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 3: who you know, had his ups and downs, offensive line

1122
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 3: had him under siege in a lot of spots. He

1123
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 3: wasted early part of the year targeting aj Green way

1124
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 3: too much. But I still think this is a pretty

1125
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 3: significant downgrade from Burrow to Finley, just talent based, just

1126
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 3: based on what we've seen what we haven't seen out

1127
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:30,360
Speaker 3: of Finley. You're also, you know, the weapons are kind

1128
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 3: of shaky as well.

1129
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 2: With no mixing.

1130
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 3: You're going with Sam a, JP, Ryan and Gio Bernard

1131
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:38,320
Speaker 3: in the backfield, which normally we would play a bigger

1132
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 3: role in a game like this where you know, under

1133
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 3: normal circumstance, I think this will be a winnable game

1134
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 3: for Cincinnati, But this is another spot where Giants tend

1135
00:57:48,040 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 3: to be at their best on the road. They are

1136
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 3: nine and two against the spread in Daniel Jones's career,

1137
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 3: and I think they play well.

1138
00:57:58,720 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 2: I think they're a far better coach.

1139
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 3: Even you also have now the superior team without a

1140
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:07,400
Speaker 3: doubt coming off a bye and road favorites off of

1141
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 3: bye since two thousand and three, doubling up against the

1142
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 3: spread sixty four and thirty two with a few pushes

1143
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 3: in there. But that's a sixty seven percent success rate

1144
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 3: since two thousand and three for road favorites off of

1145
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 3: a bye. And I think this would be a good

1146
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 3: one for Joe Judge in the spot.

1147
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I make the line kind of spot on, but

1148
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. Ryan Finley's awful. And as a

1149
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: result of Barrow going out and Ryan Finley coming in,

1150
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 1: I mean I have the Bengals like nine point two

1151
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 1: points below average. I mean only the Jets are worse. Now, Yeah,

1152
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:46,600
Speaker 1: I would not want to be backing Ryan Finley all right.

1153
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 1: For my third pick and the final pick of the

1154
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 1: Sunday six pack, I am going with the Denver Broncos

1155
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 1: plus six at that MGM at home against the New

1156
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 1: Orleans States. Now what this look? What this comes down to?

1157
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 1: I was on the Broncos last week too. It's scary

1158
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 1: back and Drew Locke. The defense is playing really well.

1159
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 1: They have a number, I mean, they're safeties are excellent.

1160
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 1: They probably have the top one, two or three safety

1161
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 1: groups in the NFL with Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson.

1162
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: They're corners with Bouye who maybe he's over the over

1163
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 1: the hill, and wash he's thirty now and not grading

1164
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 1: out well. But Callahan's playing really well. But they just

1165
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 1: have a number of other guys that are playing well.

1166
00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:39,520
Speaker 1: But they have these fins in the defensive line. You know,

1167
00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 1: Chubb is obviously back. The defense is the top ten

1168
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:44,959
Speaker 1: defense pretty much by any metric you look at this year.

1169
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:48,840
Speaker 1: So are the Saints. I love this under By the way,

1170
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 1: the Saints have a historically great run defense top ten

1171
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 1: DBA of all time. Teams aren't even trying to run

1172
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 1: on them at this point, and sort of the Bucks

1173
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: too before last week. I don't know if they still

1174
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 1: do it with both teams this year. And they say,

1175
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:06,440
Speaker 1: a really good run defense, you get thrown them a

1176
01:00:06,480 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 1: little bit, but then you're relying on Drew la But

1177
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 1: basically what this which is which can be scared, which

1178
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 1: I'll admit, But basically what this game comes down to

1179
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 1: is I love the under I think it's going to

1180
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: be ugly as hell, and I make it for and

1181
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 1: why I make it for. Some people might differ. I

1182
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 1: think a couple of our animals suit. It's basically what

1183
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 1: how I grade out? Because I have the Saints is

1184
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 1: the great I was rated as the best team in

1185
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 1: the NFC. How you grade out Taysom Hill? And I

1186
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 1: think I'm not high on Daysonville at all. Last week,

1187
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 1: you know, I think that they benefited from it being

1188
01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 1: his first game starting. He's only used in gadget plays

1189
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 1: and putting like the best situations. The Falcons didn't know

1190
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 1: he was going to be the start until two days before,

1191
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 1: and they still didn't probably know for sure if Payden

1192
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 1: was gonna bluff or not. And he played well, I

1193
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 1: mean he won of his he wasn't didn't light up

1194
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 1: the scoreboard against a really bad Falcons defense. By the way,

1195
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 1: now he's going up against a really good Broncos d.

1196
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:11,000
Speaker 1: One of his longest completions of the of the day

1197
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 1: was what a thirty yard pass downfield that he underthrew

1198
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 1: by fifteen yards and Sanders had to come back to

1199
01:01:17,160 --> 01:01:19,920
Speaker 1: get it. I mean that ball's picked all day against

1200
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 1: Denver by their safeties, so I think he's going to

1201
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 1: make a couple of mistakes here. The Broncos have film

1202
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: on what Peyton wants to do with him now they

1203
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,080
Speaker 1: know he's going to be the starter. I think he's

1204
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 1: going to struggle here in Denver against a really good defense.

1205
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 1: If you believe in Taysom Hill is a quarterback, you

1206
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:40,160
Speaker 1: probably might like the same tier might make it six

1207
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 1: or seven. I think this is an ugly game where

1208
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:46,280
Speaker 1: six points at home is just too much for me

1209
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:49,160
Speaker 1: to pass up on. So give me the Denver Broncos

1210
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:50,520
Speaker 1: drew lock season.

1211
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 2: I get it.

1212
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,840
Speaker 3: I'm not there. I have it around. I have it

1213
01:01:55,880 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 3: around six. Like Listen, I was wrong about the Miami

1214
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:02,680
Speaker 3: Dolphins last week, and you were on that.

1215
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 2: I just I can't.

1216
01:02:05,560 --> 01:02:09,520
Speaker 3: I rewatched the Taysim game twice because it felt like

1217
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 3: he was having a really bad game passing the football

1218
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 3: and just kind of a nondescript game overall. But you

1219
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 3: look up and he's eighteen of twenty three for two

1220
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty three yards over ten yards in attempt. Now, granted,

1221
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:24,000
Speaker 3: as you mentioned that duck to Emmanuel Sanders attributed to

1222
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 3: a lot of that, But the thought I just came

1223
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 3: away with from that game was like, Wow, Sean Payton

1224
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:31,959
Speaker 3: is really good at what he does. And I mean

1225
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 3: last week at this time, I was writing an article

1226
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 3: about what looked like it could end up being a

1227
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 3: tight Rookie of the Year race with you know, Herbert

1228
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 3: and Joe Burrow, and then Burrow gets hurt and you know,

1229
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:44,200
Speaker 3: Tua was kind of working in the distance. I think

1230
01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 3: he was way overvalued, but like still didn't see him

1231
01:02:47,480 --> 01:02:51,560
Speaker 3: getting benched coming right, Like that was that was that

1232
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:52,120
Speaker 3: was credit to.

1233
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 2: The Denver defense.

1234
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 3: But man, it just feels like that was their peak.

1235
01:02:56,600 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 3: Now it's like, what, like, Sean Payton just scared me

1236
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 3: in this one. That's really what it comes down to.

1237
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 3: But like the Saints, they're not at home, they're in

1238
01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:07,240
Speaker 3: Mile High. They have a quarterback not named Reese starting,

1239
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 3: So it's like do we take that into account or

1240
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 3: and you know, great Fangio defense, great secondary play, or

1241
01:03:16,360 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 3: is it is this just another continuation of what we

1242
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 3: saw last year? Was just like, okay, teddy Bridgeways want

1243
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 3: to know against the spread, Okay, it's two and oh

1244
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:24,720
Speaker 3: okay's three and oh okayse four.

1245
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:28,040
Speaker 2: Like Sean Payton, man, he's a he's a scary dude

1246
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 2: to bet against. That. That's that's kind of where I

1247
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:30,400
Speaker 2: have it, uh.

1248
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:33,600
Speaker 1: I mean, look, if Tas person to me this week,

1249
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:37,440
Speaker 1: if Taysom person to me this week, then I will

1250
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 1: give him a bump. This is outdoors with a team,

1251
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:42,560
Speaker 1: the time to prepare, and the difference between the Broncos

1252
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:47,480
Speaker 1: and the Falcons defense and secondary specifically is massive. So

1253
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:49,880
Speaker 1: that's what I'm counting on here. I'm giving the Broncos,

1254
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:50,480
Speaker 1: all right.

1255
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 2: That wraps it up for the week.

1256
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 3: Twelve Sunday, six packs stuck going with the Tampa Bay

1257
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 3: Buccaneers plus three and a half at home against the Chiefs,

1258
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers plus seven and a half at

1259
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 3: the La Rams, a team they be earlier in the year,

1260
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:13,000
Speaker 3: and the Broncos at home plus six against the Taysom

1261
01:04:13,080 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 3: Hill had New Orleans Saints.

1262
01:04:14,320 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 2: I'm going with.

1263
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:19,640
Speaker 3: The Tennessee Titans plus three and a half at the

1264
01:04:19,680 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 3: Indianapolis colt the Atlanta Falcons plus three as a home

1265
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:28,240
Speaker 3: dog against the Raiders, and the New York Giants minus

1266
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 3: five and a half against Ryan Finley starting for the

1267
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 3: first time this season after Joe Burrows season ending knee injury.

1268
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,040
Speaker 3: Now let's get in to our favorite over underplays of

1269
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 3: the week.

1270
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 2: I went first for the six pack stuck. So who

1271
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 2: you got for the total?

1272
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns over forty

1273
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I love this over look. I

1274
01:04:52,760 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 1: think Mitchew's gonna play where it is the one hundred

1275
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:59,600
Speaker 1: percent and Lowton is terrible, so I'm hoping that he plays.

1276
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:01,640
Speaker 1: But even on Uton plays, maybe he can lead a

1277
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 1: few drives. It would get scary and I would not

1278
01:05:04,000 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 1: play it if Luton plays. I'm counting on Minshew playing.

1279
01:05:07,400 --> 01:05:13,520
Speaker 1: But look, the Jaguars defense is decimated, decimated. They don't

1280
01:05:13,560 --> 01:05:15,520
Speaker 1: get pressure at thirty second pressure rates. We know Mayfield

1281
01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 1: can have his success. The only guy who gets pressure

1282
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:21,320
Speaker 1: on the Jags Josh Allen, Well, he's out. They also

1283
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:24,320
Speaker 1: DJ Hayden, their safety, Daniel Thomas is out.

1284
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:25,120
Speaker 2: C J.

1285
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:28,360
Speaker 1: Henderson's on IR Sidney Jones is bagged up. You might

1286
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:34,040
Speaker 1: be starting here. Luke Barco rookie undrafted out of San

1287
01:05:34,040 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 1: Diego State and Claybrooks also got hurt last week and

1288
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,680
Speaker 1: Josiah Scott, a fourth round rookie out of Michigan State,

1289
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 1: along with Trey Herndons. You might be starting two rookies

1290
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 1: who have twenty three combined starts, and Trey Herdon has

1291
01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:51,720
Speaker 1: been terrible for three years. This Jaguars defense totally. They

1292
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:55,000
Speaker 1: also can't defend the right mean, the Brons gonna push

1293
01:05:55,000 --> 01:05:57,560
Speaker 1: them around, do whatever they want. Mayfield will be fine.

1294
01:05:57,560 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 1: They don't get any pressure, and it's maybe there could

1295
01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 1: be a little rain, but it's gonna be seventy six

1296
01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:06,520
Speaker 1: and no win. And the Cleveland Browns offensive numbers are

1297
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 1: a little deflated because they've been playing in these crazy

1298
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:14,880
Speaker 1: weather games. Now on the flip side, they're defensive numbers,

1299
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: which is which is really funny because their defense numbers

1300
01:06:17,760 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 1: aren't even that great. Browns from a DVIA perspective, great

1301
01:06:20,800 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 1: out below average on defense. And here are the teams

1302
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 1: they played offensive DVA rank in the non crazy weather games.

1303
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:32,960
Speaker 1: The three non crazy weather games twenty second, twenty seventh,

1304
01:06:33,240 --> 01:06:37,160
Speaker 1: twenty seventh again the Bengals twenty eighth, twenty sixth, sixteenth,

1305
01:06:37,240 --> 01:06:40,680
Speaker 1: and seventeenth, not one top fifteen offense. They give an

1306
01:06:40,720 --> 01:06:42,720
Speaker 1: average of thirty three and a half points per game.

1307
01:06:43,040 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: The only top even if you include weather, the only

1308
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:48,320
Speaker 1: top fourteen offense they faced all year was the Raiders,

1309
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 1: and they played that game in thirty to forty mile

1310
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:53,840
Speaker 1: one hour wins. This defense is not good. They've benefited

1311
01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:56,400
Speaker 1: from these three crazy weather games the last three weeks,

1312
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:58,720
Speaker 1: and now they won't have their two best players in

1313
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:02,280
Speaker 1: Miles garretton Denzil war So I think bitch is gonna play.

1314
01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 1: You might get Chanalt back. These will be two terrible

1315
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:08,760
Speaker 1: defenses on the field. Brown should do a little more

1316
01:07:08,760 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 1: on offense in nicer weather, their defense should get exposed.

1317
01:07:12,320 --> 01:07:16,320
Speaker 1: And the Jags defense right now is what their losses

1318
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:17,440
Speaker 1: is horrendous to me.

1319
01:07:17,520 --> 01:07:20,000
Speaker 2: The over Yeah, they look like they're in tank move

1320
01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:20,480
Speaker 2: right now.

1321
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,760
Speaker 3: I'm so mad that this kind of set up the

1322
01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:25,800
Speaker 3: way he did because I was hoping so much to

1323
01:07:25,840 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 3: be able to fade Cleveland coming off just benefiting from

1324
01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 3: it's really been all year with them. But yeah, I

1325
01:07:33,520 --> 01:07:35,240
Speaker 3: think that's I think that's the right play given the

1326
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:40,000
Speaker 3: Jags defense. I am going with the Bears Packers under

1327
01:07:40,280 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 3: forty five and a half at bet MGM.

1328
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:45,680
Speaker 2: Listen, these two teams played twice last year, as they

1329
01:07:45,720 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 2: do every year. In the two matchups combined, they.

1330
01:07:49,280 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 3: Didn't get over forty five twenty one to thirteen Packers

1331
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 3: in a ten to three game. They scored forty four

1332
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:58,720
Speaker 3: points combined in the two matchups. You may have some

1333
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:01,920
Speaker 3: weather factoring in here, is well, tempts are forecasted right

1334
01:08:01,960 --> 01:08:06,360
Speaker 3: around freezing and you also have fifteen mile per hour

1335
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 3: wins forecasted went, which is when you really start to

1336
01:08:08,400 --> 01:08:10,600
Speaker 3: see a down tick in offense. But I have the

1337
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:14,760
Speaker 3: Bears rated as the lowest total team.

1338
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:17,599
Speaker 2: In the league. I mean, they're just excellent on defense.

1339
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 3: They're not taking like a lot of unnecessary risks with

1340
01:08:22,320 --> 01:08:23,479
Speaker 3: that great defense, like they're not.

1341
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 2: They don't, they rarely blitz.

1342
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:30,240
Speaker 3: So just kind of a defense that you expect to

1343
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:33,360
Speaker 3: make Aaron Rodgers struggle a little bit, similar to the

1344
01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:35,560
Speaker 3: Colts in the second half last week, similar to the

1345
01:08:35,920 --> 01:08:37,240
Speaker 3: Buccaneers earlier in the year.

1346
01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:38,920
Speaker 2: But at the same time, it's like the.

1347
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:42,919
Speaker 3: Packers' vulnerabilities on defense are not going to be exploited

1348
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:48,800
Speaker 3: by one of Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles plays being

1349
01:08:48,840 --> 01:08:51,639
Speaker 3: called by I guess it's Bill Laser again for Matt

1350
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:57,639
Speaker 3: Naggi and the Bears. You know, Bears kicking in high

1351
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:00,439
Speaker 3: winds like this is just not going to be in

1352
01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 3: offensive explosion. This is a kind of tailor made divisional

1353
01:09:05,360 --> 01:09:08,719
Speaker 3: under with two teams that have done that at a

1354
01:09:08,800 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 3: high rate. So in the recent Matt Naggy era twenty

1355
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:19,320
Speaker 3: one to thirteen, ten to three, twenty four to seventeen,

1356
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 3: you have to go back to the first meeting between

1357
01:09:24,120 --> 01:09:27,240
Speaker 3: these teams in twenty eighteen on September ninth to find

1358
01:09:27,280 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 3: a game that went over the total of forty five

1359
01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:33,680
Speaker 3: of twenty four to twenty three game. Aaron Rodgers in

1360
01:09:33,720 --> 01:09:39,280
Speaker 3: his career divisional unders against the Bears are nearly doubling

1361
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:43,720
Speaker 3: up fifteen to eight sixty five percent. So they just

1362
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:45,240
Speaker 3: one of these spots are getting late in the years,

1363
01:09:45,240 --> 01:09:49,280
Speaker 3: getting colder. Aaron Rodgers had the big start. He always

1364
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:52,760
Speaker 3: torches bad defenses. But I think the Packers will be

1365
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:55,519
Speaker 3: happy to just play this one close to the vest.

1366
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:58,120
Speaker 3: They don't have to do too much against this Bears offense,

1367
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:00,439
Speaker 3: all right. So that does it for the the favorite

1368
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:04,200
Speaker 3: totals of the week. Stuck going with Brown's Jags over

1369
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:07,880
Speaker 3: forty nine and a half and I am going with

1370
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:12,360
Speaker 3: Bears Packers under forty five and a half on Sunday

1371
01:10:12,439 --> 01:10:16,240
Speaker 3: Night Football. We'll have a rite up for that one

1372
01:10:16,840 --> 01:10:18,519
Speaker 3: as well, so check that out.

1373
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:21,800
Speaker 2: Now let's get into our favorite teaser of the week.

1374
01:10:22,479 --> 01:10:25,640
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1375
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:26,679
Speaker 2: All right, stuck.

1376
01:10:27,240 --> 01:10:29,639
Speaker 3: As I mentioned every week, you have some great content

1377
01:10:29,680 --> 01:10:34,000
Speaker 3: out on teasers on the Action Network, So if anyone

1378
01:10:34,040 --> 01:10:36,680
Speaker 3: needs to kind of get it more of an overview

1379
01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:39,479
Speaker 3: and how to do this, go check those out. But

1380
01:10:39,600 --> 01:10:43,760
Speaker 3: essentially you're getting extra points. Usually it's six.

1381
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:44,559
Speaker 2: That's what we do here.

1382
01:10:44,600 --> 01:10:47,840
Speaker 3: That's the standard six extra points on bets that you

1383
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 3: can combine, so your your te's in an eight point favorite,

1384
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 3: they become a two point favorite, eight point dog, fourteen

1385
01:10:53,360 --> 01:10:54,840
Speaker 3: point dog, et cetera.

1386
01:10:55,360 --> 01:10:58,200
Speaker 5: We got this week for your two team six point teasers.

1387
01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:01,800
Speaker 5: Keep it brief and subt think the Packers win. I'll

1388
01:11:01,800 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 5: take them under a field goal, and I think the

1389
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:05,760
Speaker 5: Falcons at least keep it with the one possession, so

1390
01:11:05,800 --> 01:11:08,320
Speaker 5: I'll take them plus nine Falcons Packers.

1391
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:12,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, similar feelings about the Packers taking them down to

1392
01:11:12,240 --> 01:11:15,400
Speaker 3: two and a half and then teasing the Browns down

1393
01:11:15,479 --> 01:11:20,000
Speaker 3: to minus one. If the Jaguars hadn't just kind of

1394
01:11:20,160 --> 01:11:23,960
Speaker 3: put all these guys on the ir and it would

1395
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:27,400
Speaker 3: have been a little diceier of a spot. But I

1396
01:11:27,439 --> 01:11:29,639
Speaker 3: think this is a good spot for the Browns offense.

1397
01:11:30,120 --> 01:11:36,680
Speaker 3: So Browns Packers, let's get right into our moneyline underdog parlay.

1398
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:43,160
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1399
01:11:43,640 --> 01:11:46,200
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay.

1400
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:50,280
Speaker 2: You're pick this week, no go, I didn't quite see

1401
01:11:50,320 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 2: it coming. It is a stuck like pick.

1402
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 3: But tell the people who you're choosing for your moneyline

1403
01:11:56,360 --> 01:11:57,040
Speaker 3: dog this week.

1404
01:11:57,520 --> 01:12:03,000
Speaker 1: I'll go with the New York Football Jets. Oh in ten,

1405
01:12:03,120 --> 01:12:06,280
Speaker 1: Jets at home against the Dolphins. This might be their

1406
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 1: last chance to win a game this year. Darnold might

1407
01:12:09,439 --> 01:12:11,559
Speaker 1: give it a go, and that'll really help this week

1408
01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:13,400
Speaker 1: because you need to be mobile against the Dolphins, who

1409
01:12:13,400 --> 01:12:16,519
Speaker 1: are gonna blitz the hell out of you. I've been

1410
01:12:16,520 --> 01:12:19,240
Speaker 1: calling the two has been awful for weeks. He should

1411
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:22,200
Speaker 1: have thrown like five picks versus the Chargers. They were

1412
01:12:22,200 --> 01:12:25,400
Speaker 1: like going through guys hands. He was getting extremely lucky.

1413
01:12:25,439 --> 01:12:27,160
Speaker 1: And then last week against the Brocoli's he turned in

1414
01:12:27,200 --> 01:12:29,000
Speaker 1: one of the worst quarterback performers I've ever seen in

1415
01:12:29,000 --> 01:12:31,000
Speaker 1: my life. The Dolphins at like eighty yards through three

1416
01:12:31,040 --> 01:12:33,680
Speaker 1: quarters and they're gonna go back to them. So I

1417
01:12:33,680 --> 01:12:36,559
Speaker 1: know the Jets offensive line is nobody left, their secondary

1418
01:12:36,640 --> 01:12:40,400
Speaker 1: is nobody left. But the Dolphins are't gonna get defensive

1419
01:12:40,520 --> 01:12:42,920
Speaker 1: touchdowns and fumbles at the one, which they got again,

1420
01:12:42,960 --> 01:12:46,200
Speaker 1: and special teams touchdowns forever to It just hasn't impressed me.

1421
01:12:46,280 --> 01:12:47,720
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be good, but he's still a

1422
01:12:47,800 --> 01:12:51,679
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback. It takes time sometimes some guys it doesn't.

1423
01:12:51,760 --> 01:12:56,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, just a feeling here. The Jets might make

1424
01:12:56,080 --> 01:12:58,439
Speaker 1: this a game. I make the line seven seven and

1425
01:12:58,479 --> 01:13:01,320
Speaker 1: a half is so there's no value you in back

1426
01:13:01,320 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 1: in the Jets, So I'll take a flyer that you

1427
01:13:03,360 --> 01:13:05,519
Speaker 1: get a bad too a game, although he might have

1428
01:13:05,560 --> 01:13:07,280
Speaker 1: a short leash, which is one of the reasons why

1429
01:13:07,320 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 1: it's toughy in the bet. But yeah, give me, give

1430
01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:11,000
Speaker 1: me the Jets.

1431
01:13:11,400 --> 01:13:13,720
Speaker 3: I mean that is that is the That is the

1432
01:13:13,760 --> 01:13:16,479
Speaker 3: hot take. I really didn't see that one coming. I

1433
01:13:16,920 --> 01:13:19,639
Speaker 3: haven't projected a bit higher though. I do think it's

1434
01:13:19,920 --> 01:13:22,479
Speaker 3: kind of a like situationally, a little bit of better

1435
01:13:22,479 --> 01:13:26,120
Speaker 3: spot for the Jets in terms of betting, you know, value,

1436
01:13:26,400 --> 01:13:30,439
Speaker 3: like the Dolphins have been covering at a high rate

1437
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:33,679
Speaker 3: before last week, so Generally you want to fade those

1438
01:13:33,760 --> 01:13:36,240
Speaker 3: kind of teams that's been profitable in the.

1439
01:13:36,120 --> 01:13:37,760
Speaker 2: Past, but I do make it a little high.

1440
01:13:38,000 --> 01:13:41,000
Speaker 3: It's another spot where I just think the Dolphins have

1441
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:44,360
Speaker 3: such a coaching advantage here that more of a stay

1442
01:13:44,360 --> 01:13:45,400
Speaker 3: away for me.

1443
01:13:45,560 --> 01:13:47,960
Speaker 2: But I mean great value on the on the.

1444
01:13:47,840 --> 01:13:53,200
Speaker 3: Plus two fifty for Stuck, I am going with the

1445
01:13:53,240 --> 01:13:57,479
Speaker 3: San Francisco forty nine Ers to pull off the upset

1446
01:13:58,040 --> 01:13:59,320
Speaker 3: against the Rams.

1447
01:13:59,560 --> 01:14:02,799
Speaker 2: Again, love the by low.

1448
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:06,240
Speaker 3: So high opportunities this type of year. Rams coming off

1449
01:14:06,640 --> 01:14:09,840
Speaker 3: an impressive stretch, coming off a primetime defeat of one

1450
01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:14,200
Speaker 3: of the best teams in the National Football League. But again,

1451
01:14:14,439 --> 01:14:17,879
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers have won quite a few games,

1452
01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:21,800
Speaker 3: you know, since Kyle Shanahan took over outright as an underdog,

1453
01:14:21,960 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 3: and this is a spot where they already won the

1454
01:14:25,280 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 3: first game.

1455
01:14:25,960 --> 01:14:29,320
Speaker 2: Now, usually you see value.

1456
01:14:29,000 --> 01:14:30,960
Speaker 3: On the other side in situations like this, but just

1457
01:14:30,960 --> 01:14:33,800
Speaker 3: because the forty nine have been so decimated by injury

1458
01:14:34,680 --> 01:14:36,760
Speaker 3: and the Rams are coming off this this kind of

1459
01:14:36,920 --> 01:14:40,599
Speaker 3: visible national, visible performance, you're not really seeing that. So

1460
01:14:41,439 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 3: plus two forty we're getting the Niners that So this

1461
01:14:45,320 --> 01:14:50,160
Speaker 3: is actually a pretty juicy parlay those two bets. If

1462
01:14:50,200 --> 01:14:55,240
Speaker 3: they hit would pay out eleven hundred dollars nearly ten

1463
01:14:55,240 --> 01:15:00,160
Speaker 3: to ninety on a one hundred dollar bet, So this

1464
01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:03,400
Speaker 3: is quite a juicy parway should be an interesting one.

1465
01:15:03,439 --> 01:15:05,960
Speaker 3: But we're getting to that time of year where we

1466
01:15:06,000 --> 01:15:08,200
Speaker 3: feel like we've seen enough to know what's gonna happen,

1467
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:11,640
Speaker 3: and then the week throws some curveballs at us. So

1468
01:15:12,520 --> 01:15:17,479
Speaker 3: love getting the big, big, juicy money line plays at

1469
01:15:17,479 --> 01:15:20,880
Speaker 3: this time of year. All right, now, let's get into

1470
01:15:21,200 --> 01:15:24,920
Speaker 3: the best of the rest, which are the games that

1471
01:15:24,960 --> 01:15:27,759
Speaker 3: we did not hit on in any other segment. Stuck

1472
01:15:28,160 --> 01:15:31,400
Speaker 3: we're gonna start with seems kind of like a similar

1473
01:15:31,439 --> 01:15:34,880
Speaker 3: spot to the last few weeks. We get the Cardinals

1474
01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:40,920
Speaker 3: short spread against another quarterback on the other end that.

1475
01:15:40,800 --> 01:15:41,559
Speaker 2: Can also run.

1476
01:15:41,800 --> 01:15:44,360
Speaker 3: We just had Cardinals Bills, We just had Cardinals Seahawks,

1477
01:15:44,760 --> 01:15:49,000
Speaker 3: and then we just had Patriots Ravens and Patriots Texans.

1478
01:15:49,000 --> 01:15:51,519
Speaker 3: So it just feels like the same matchup over and

1479
01:15:51,560 --> 01:15:55,240
Speaker 3: over again. But Arizona two and a half point favorites

1480
01:15:55,800 --> 01:16:02,160
Speaker 3: going to Foxboro off the long week. Murray visibly bothered

1481
01:16:02,640 --> 01:16:06,960
Speaker 3: by his shoulder or Cliff Kingsbury, or a combination of both,

1482
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:09,400
Speaker 3: or the fact that he still has to target ry

1483
01:16:09,400 --> 01:16:10,280
Speaker 3: for Gerald ten times.

1484
01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:11,320
Speaker 2: I don't know Kyler Murray.

1485
01:16:11,439 --> 01:16:13,840
Speaker 3: Just the body language was odd in that Seahawks game,

1486
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:16,559
Speaker 3: and I'm surprised it's not a bigger talking point because

1487
01:16:16,920 --> 01:16:19,479
Speaker 3: I mean, camm do In, Blake Bortles, those guys got

1488
01:16:19,479 --> 01:16:19,960
Speaker 3: lit up.

1489
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:22,600
Speaker 2: For that kind of body language. But Kyra, coming up

1490
01:16:22,600 --> 01:16:24,080
Speaker 2: a long week, what do you think about this game?

1491
01:16:24,400 --> 01:16:26,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, play calling what's pretty bad too. I think those

1492
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:28,680
Speaker 1: line is a little too high, but it's two and

1493
01:16:28,720 --> 01:16:31,400
Speaker 1: a half. I make it like one is. I like

1494
01:16:31,479 --> 01:16:33,680
Speaker 1: the over I played some over forty eight and a

1495
01:16:33,720 --> 01:16:37,160
Speaker 1: half forty nine did New England offense is playing a

1496
01:16:37,200 --> 01:16:40,200
Speaker 1: lot better now. The offensive line is just awesome and

1497
01:16:40,240 --> 01:16:43,479
Speaker 1: it's healthy. And you know Damien Harris, maybe you get

1498
01:16:43,560 --> 01:16:46,160
Speaker 1: a lot more of him now. He's by some account's

1499
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:48,680
Speaker 1: been great out as one of the best backs in

1500
01:16:48,720 --> 01:16:52,839
Speaker 1: the NFL. And then you have you know, Jacoby Myers

1501
01:16:52,840 --> 01:16:55,760
Speaker 1: and Damir Birder playing really well. Receiver Cam Newton over

1502
01:16:55,800 --> 01:16:57,840
Speaker 1: the last few weeks is playing well. I'm not a

1503
01:16:57,840 --> 01:17:01,600
Speaker 1: believer in this Arizona defense. I think that they've overperformed

1504
01:17:01,640 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 1: a bit. They just don't have much and I think

1505
01:17:04,040 --> 01:17:07,200
Speaker 1: Patrick Peterson is I look thirty years old. He's passed

1506
01:17:07,200 --> 01:17:10,240
Speaker 1: his prime, just like Gilmore might be on the other side.

1507
01:17:10,280 --> 01:17:12,719
Speaker 1: Patriots the other side, their defense is not good the

1508
01:17:12,720 --> 01:17:16,559
Speaker 1: thirty second DVOA. So I don't see them slowing down

1509
01:17:17,120 --> 01:17:20,920
Speaker 1: the Cardinals rushing attack, Mury running the ball, or throwing

1510
01:17:21,000 --> 01:17:24,720
Speaker 1: the ball. It's just a rebuilt bad defense with the

1511
01:17:24,840 --> 01:17:27,600
Speaker 1: secondary that's on the decline. So I think this is

1512
01:17:27,600 --> 01:17:28,679
Speaker 1: gonna be a high scoring game.

1513
01:17:30,000 --> 01:17:32,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've had a couple of kind of lower scoring

1514
01:17:33,000 --> 01:17:35,240
Speaker 3: Patriots games after that. You know, of course they go

1515
01:17:35,360 --> 01:17:38,559
Speaker 3: over against the Jets a few weeks ago, and that's

1516
01:17:38,600 --> 01:17:42,120
Speaker 3: the game they get behind on. But you would think

1517
01:17:42,160 --> 01:17:45,880
Speaker 3: that the Cardinals bounce back after a couple of shaking

1518
01:17:45,960 --> 01:17:49,519
Speaker 3: weeks and not. They really underperform against that Seahawks defense.

1519
01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:52,080
Speaker 3: Then we have Carolina this game.

1520
01:17:52,520 --> 01:17:55,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Cardinals number one and adjustment sus situation neutral pace too.

1521
01:17:55,640 --> 01:17:56,559
Speaker 1: See they're gonna go fast.

1522
01:17:56,560 --> 01:17:59,479
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, that's always a plan. It's like it's like

1523
01:17:59,520 --> 01:18:05,280
Speaker 2: the opposing forces coming together. Carolina. This game has been

1524
01:18:05,320 --> 01:18:06,719
Speaker 2: off the board at many books.

1525
01:18:07,680 --> 01:18:10,879
Speaker 3: Don't know exactly if who's gonna start quarterback from Carolina.

1526
01:18:11,320 --> 01:18:14,799
Speaker 3: Kay Bridgewater has a chance if he does. I actually

1527
01:18:14,880 --> 01:18:18,120
Speaker 3: like Carolina in his game. But I think Minnesota has

1528
01:18:18,120 --> 01:18:20,759
Speaker 3: been a little overrated ever since they had that bounce back,

1529
01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:25,360
Speaker 3: you know, as you detail last week. But it kind

1530
01:18:25,360 --> 01:18:27,400
Speaker 3: of goes the other way. You expect like a letdown

1531
01:18:27,439 --> 01:18:30,759
Speaker 3: if he's out. So I'm kind of an odd situation.

1532
01:18:30,880 --> 01:18:34,240
Speaker 3: But four and a half with a total forty eight.

1533
01:18:34,360 --> 01:18:38,760
Speaker 3: It looks like at bet MGM right now, but that

1534
01:18:39,040 --> 01:18:41,479
Speaker 3: could obviously change by the time you guys hear this.

1535
01:18:41,560 --> 01:18:43,000
Speaker 2: Any any thoughts on this.

1536
01:18:42,920 --> 01:18:45,800
Speaker 1: One, Yeah, maybe look over, but you gotta wait to

1537
01:18:45,840 --> 01:18:49,000
Speaker 1: see the steal and play. He's on the COVID list,

1538
01:18:49,479 --> 01:18:52,280
Speaker 1: you know, does Bridgewater play. It doesn't look like McCaffrey

1539
01:18:52,280 --> 01:18:54,479
Speaker 1: will play. But the Vikings defense is just not that

1540
01:18:54,560 --> 01:18:58,479
Speaker 1: good and Dalvin Cook should go wild against this Panthers

1541
01:18:58,560 --> 01:19:01,040
Speaker 1: run day. I've had a good on the Vikings all year,

1542
01:19:01,080 --> 01:19:04,080
Speaker 1: and I think this might be an over game. But yeah, yeah,

1543
01:19:04,120 --> 01:19:07,040
Speaker 1: stay tuned the app and the content blop later of

1544
01:19:07,040 --> 01:19:09,640
Speaker 1: the week because we need a lot more clarity on

1545
01:19:09,680 --> 01:19:10,479
Speaker 1: whose in it who's out.

1546
01:19:10,920 --> 01:19:13,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, good Kirk Cousins playing well for Vikings.

1547
01:19:13,280 --> 01:19:15,639
Speaker 3: That that Jefferson pick just makes the Eagles struggles look

1548
01:19:15,640 --> 01:19:16,920
Speaker 3: even even worse.

1549
01:19:17,680 --> 01:19:21,000
Speaker 2: The Chargers speaking of worse the Chargers.

1550
01:19:21,160 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 3: You know, I'm kind of watching that game switching back

1551
01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:27,080
Speaker 3: and forth last week. I'm like, oh, well, all it

1552
01:19:27,120 --> 01:19:30,679
Speaker 3: takes is the Jets for the Chargers to finally get

1553
01:19:30,720 --> 01:19:33,200
Speaker 3: their cover after it's just, yeah, everything's.

1554
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:35,920
Speaker 2: Been elusive for them over these past few weeks more

1555
01:19:36,000 --> 01:19:36,400
Speaker 2: or less.

1556
01:19:36,760 --> 01:19:39,519
Speaker 3: And what do you know, Adam Gase decides to taking

1557
01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:40,639
Speaker 3: a play call on the second half.

1558
01:19:41,000 --> 01:19:44,559
Speaker 2: The Chargers somehow do not cover against the Jets.

1559
01:19:44,600 --> 01:19:47,519
Speaker 3: In again, it felt like they dominated for like eight quarters,

1560
01:19:47,560 --> 01:19:51,000
Speaker 3: but it was only halftime. Joe Herbert had like two

1561
01:19:51,080 --> 01:19:53,120
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy two hundred and eighty yards and I

1562
01:19:53,120 --> 01:19:56,280
Speaker 3: think two or three touchdowns. So now five and a

1563
01:19:56,320 --> 01:19:59,439
Speaker 3: half kind of a dead number, not not quite six

1564
01:20:00,120 --> 01:20:04,719
Speaker 3: at Buffalo total fifty three and a half Herbert versus

1565
01:20:04,760 --> 01:20:05,320
Speaker 3: Josh Allen.

1566
01:20:05,360 --> 01:20:08,000
Speaker 1: What do you think? Yeah, Dubai came with the big

1567
01:20:08,000 --> 01:20:10,560
Speaker 1: coaching evantage for the Bills here. They'll probably find a

1568
01:20:10,600 --> 01:20:13,200
Speaker 1: way to win this game. I make this line around

1569
01:20:13,200 --> 01:20:14,920
Speaker 1: five and a half six of no interest for me.

1570
01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:17,840
Speaker 1: The you know, Bills are in a good spot here

1571
01:20:17,880 --> 01:20:19,599
Speaker 1: off of a bye. They needed that by Their offensive

1572
01:20:19,600 --> 01:20:22,120
Speaker 1: line is finally now healthy, their secondary is finally now

1573
01:20:22,120 --> 01:20:25,240
Speaker 1: healthy one. They're gonna get Malana back next week. That

1574
01:20:25,400 --> 01:20:28,439
Speaker 1: he really elevates their defense, so he won't be back

1575
01:20:28,840 --> 01:20:31,040
Speaker 1: John Brown did in practice today. Their offense is a

1576
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:32,439
Speaker 1: lot better with him, and that's something to keep an

1577
01:20:32,439 --> 01:20:35,400
Speaker 1: eye on. But charges coming across the country taking on

1578
01:20:35,439 --> 01:20:37,320
Speaker 1: the Bills off of a bye, big coaching advantage for

1579
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:39,320
Speaker 1: the Bills. They definitely get a bump for that, so

1580
01:20:39,320 --> 01:20:41,920
Speaker 1: I would lean Bills. This could be a high scoring

1581
01:20:41,960 --> 01:20:45,880
Speaker 1: game without weather. I don't think that there's weather in Buffalo.

1582
01:20:46,320 --> 01:20:47,800
Speaker 1: A lot of times there is this time of year,

1583
01:20:48,120 --> 01:20:50,000
Speaker 1: but pass for me. Line's look about right.

1584
01:20:50,680 --> 01:20:52,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think what you said at the end, it's

1585
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:54,760
Speaker 3: probably gonna be a high scoring game just because.

1586
01:20:54,520 --> 01:20:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it could be a real, very high

1587
01:20:55,880 --> 01:20:57,880
Speaker 1: scoring game. And just six mile an hour wins in

1588
01:20:57,880 --> 01:21:00,000
Speaker 1: Buffalo fifty degrees a lot of times it could be

1589
01:21:00,080 --> 01:21:02,040
Speaker 1: way worse in December. That's not gonna be an issue.

1590
01:21:02,080 --> 01:21:04,479
Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be a shootout. Then those

1591
01:21:05,200 --> 01:21:06,120
Speaker 1: probably would win.

1592
01:21:06,520 --> 01:21:09,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, And they're also familiar with Anthony war remember he

1593
01:21:09,400 --> 01:21:11,920
Speaker 3: was on their staff for for a number of years,

1594
01:21:11,960 --> 01:21:14,280
Speaker 3: So it is it is a good spot for the Bills.

1595
01:21:14,280 --> 01:21:18,879
Speaker 2: But just not really a lot of value. The bills

1596
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:24,360
Speaker 2: make me want throw your hands us, throw your hair back.

1597
01:21:25,640 --> 01:21:27,400
Speaker 2: Now the bills, I'm making it happen.

1598
01:21:28,360 --> 01:21:31,400
Speaker 3: That is going to wrap it up for the best

1599
01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:35,160
Speaker 3: of the rest we see the coaches pep Talk. Today's

1600
01:21:35,160 --> 01:21:37,000
Speaker 3: coach pep Talk comes to us from Joan Cusack and

1601
01:21:37,040 --> 01:21:39,719
Speaker 3: Steve Martin from the nineteen ninety film I Blue Heaven.

1602
01:21:40,080 --> 01:21:42,840
Speaker 3: We're gonna dedicate it to Ben Denucci, Jimmy g Our,

1603
01:21:42,840 --> 01:21:46,480
Speaker 3: producer map My Man Stucky and all the other Italians

1604
01:21:46,640 --> 01:21:49,400
Speaker 3: celebrating Thanksgiving this week.

1605
01:21:50,120 --> 01:21:51,160
Speaker 2: I was in a hurry.

1606
01:21:51,360 --> 01:21:53,600
Speaker 5: I was on my way to church to say a

1607
01:21:53,600 --> 01:21:55,880
Speaker 5: few Nolvena's for Thanksgiving.

1608
01:21:56,000 --> 01:21:57,799
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is not a Catholic holiday.

1609
01:21:58,240 --> 01:22:01,200
Speaker 5: Thanksgiving is very big with the Italian's.

1610
01:22:01,000 --> 01:22:03,920
Speaker 6: Turkey catcher, Tory sweet be theta parmer Jean.

1611
01:22:04,080 --> 01:22:07,080
Speaker 1: There is no such thing as Thanksgiving in Italy.

1612
01:22:07,120 --> 01:22:10,040
Speaker 2: It is an American holiday. Ever been to Sicily by

1613
01:22:10,040 --> 01:22:10,639
Speaker 2: any chance.

1614
01:22:11,160 --> 01:22:16,040
Speaker 3: No, Thanksgiving is very big in Sicily on account of

1615
01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:19,360
Speaker 3: the large number of Sicilians who went to America and

1616
01:22:19,400 --> 01:22:23,479
Speaker 3: then got thrown back out. Let's get in to the

1617
01:22:23,600 --> 01:22:26,240
Speaker 3: survivor pool pick real quick, and then we'll do our

1618
01:22:26,320 --> 01:22:33,000
Speaker 3: special Thanksgiving Sides Draft. To wrap up the podcast Survivor

1619
01:22:33,000 --> 01:22:35,320
Speaker 3: pool Pick of the week, here we go one pick,

1620
01:22:36,920 --> 01:22:39,040
Speaker 3: one chance to advance.

1621
01:22:40,760 --> 01:22:41,600
Speaker 1: Survivor.

1622
01:22:42,640 --> 01:22:46,080
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, So I actually picked incorrectly again last

1623
01:22:46,080 --> 01:22:48,240
Speaker 3: week for the second time this year after going perfect

1624
01:22:48,320 --> 01:22:52,040
Speaker 3: last year. Already to missus Chiefs in Week five. Vikings

1625
01:22:52,120 --> 01:22:56,640
Speaker 3: last week big drop weight by Justin Jefferson. You had Pittsburgh,

1626
01:22:57,160 --> 01:23:01,160
Speaker 3: they covered, they went easily. It's getting tough out if

1627
01:23:01,200 --> 01:23:04,880
Speaker 3: you're still alive. We're going with in week number twelve weeks,

1628
01:23:05,080 --> 01:23:07,440
Speaker 3: four weeks left, depending on your type of contest.

1629
01:23:07,680 --> 01:23:09,360
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go with the Vikings. I think

1630
01:23:09,360 --> 01:23:11,360
Speaker 1: the Vikings find a way to win. Dalvin COOKI eats

1631
01:23:12,320 --> 01:23:17,640
Speaker 1: against this Panther's defense. Some pickens out there, give me

1632
01:23:17,640 --> 01:23:18,160
Speaker 1: the Vikings.

1633
01:23:18,600 --> 01:23:20,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, of Vikings.

1634
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:25,360
Speaker 3: I am on a clear regression path this season, missing

1635
01:23:25,439 --> 01:23:28,800
Speaker 3: on two of the eleven so far. But if I'm

1636
01:23:28,800 --> 01:23:31,960
Speaker 3: alive and a survivor, who I think with the way

1637
01:23:32,000 --> 01:23:35,120
Speaker 3: this week sets up, it's a good week for some risk.

1638
01:23:35,360 --> 01:23:38,599
Speaker 3: So if you ever usually probably go through a whole

1639
01:23:38,600 --> 01:23:42,280
Speaker 3: season or two even without using the Giants. But Ryan

1640
01:23:42,320 --> 01:23:45,960
Speaker 3: Finley's just been so bad in every you know, moment.

1641
01:23:46,040 --> 01:23:48,000
Speaker 3: I've seen him on the field so far, so hey,

1642
01:23:48,040 --> 01:23:50,240
Speaker 3: you never know, it could change. He's a year better,

1643
01:23:50,240 --> 01:23:54,120
Speaker 3: but nothing in that game against Washington showed us any different.

1644
01:23:54,160 --> 01:23:57,160
Speaker 3: So I'll take the Giants this week a little risky

1645
01:23:58,120 --> 01:23:59,400
Speaker 3: and see if I can get an edge.

1646
01:23:59,280 --> 01:23:59,799
Speaker 1: On some people.

1647
01:24:00,240 --> 01:24:03,800
Speaker 3: All right, let's make this a tradition for Thanksgiving. We're

1648
01:24:03,840 --> 01:24:05,840
Speaker 3: gonna have a little snake draft to wrap up with

1649
01:24:05,840 --> 01:24:09,599
Speaker 3: the pod of our favorite Thanksgiving sides.

1650
01:24:09,840 --> 01:24:10,160
Speaker 2: Stuff.

1651
01:24:10,200 --> 01:24:13,400
Speaker 3: You're up thirty two twenty six in our six pack contest,

1652
01:24:13,479 --> 01:24:16,479
Speaker 3: so you, sir, have the first pick.

1653
01:24:17,040 --> 01:24:19,960
Speaker 2: What is the top side on Thanksgiving?

1654
01:24:20,800 --> 01:24:24,479
Speaker 1: I'm all about cast roles on Thanksgiving. I just want

1655
01:24:24,520 --> 01:24:28,040
Speaker 1: like big, the big tinfoil and then just it looks

1656
01:24:28,080 --> 01:24:31,240
Speaker 1: like slot but it tastes so good. So I'm starting

1657
01:24:31,240 --> 01:24:33,880
Speaker 1: with green bean casts role. I think I only have

1658
01:24:33,920 --> 01:24:36,200
Speaker 1: it on Thanksgiving. I love it. I will put it

1659
01:24:36,240 --> 01:24:38,639
Speaker 1: on with everything greening castrole.

1660
01:24:39,120 --> 01:24:41,519
Speaker 3: Wow, I mean you in the you're coming out of it,

1661
01:24:41,520 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 3: like first you go with Gangreen and you go with

1662
01:24:43,240 --> 01:24:46,160
Speaker 3: the green bean casserole. I'm really happy that you chose

1663
01:24:46,160 --> 01:24:49,000
Speaker 3: that because I was hoping to get stuffing with the

1664
01:24:49,000 --> 01:24:52,280
Speaker 3: first pick. So yeah, I gotta go stuff I'm going

1665
01:24:52,280 --> 01:24:56,200
Speaker 3: on the chalk here. My grandma rip but she used

1666
01:24:56,200 --> 01:24:58,400
Speaker 3: to make the you know, the homemade stuffing with She

1667
01:24:58,439 --> 01:25:01,479
Speaker 3: would spend like like a a much longer time than

1668
01:25:01,479 --> 01:25:04,640
Speaker 3: you would ever imagine, like chopping up bread into like

1669
01:25:04,680 --> 01:25:07,559
Speaker 3: little pieces. And so I love the homemade. I love

1670
01:25:07,600 --> 01:25:10,400
Speaker 3: the stuffing. So going stuffing with my first pick.

1671
01:25:10,240 --> 01:25:12,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, stuffing. It's it's it's a kind of like cole salt.

1672
01:25:12,920 --> 01:25:14,799
Speaker 1: There can be good stuffing, there could be bad stuffing,

1673
01:25:14,840 --> 01:25:16,760
Speaker 1: and when it's good, it's really good. And it's one

1674
01:25:16,800 --> 01:25:18,840
Speaker 1: of those things you usually only have on Thanksgiving. So

1675
01:25:19,600 --> 01:25:22,000
Speaker 1: that's a good pick. My second pick, I'll go in

1676
01:25:22,080 --> 01:25:24,639
Speaker 1: another cast role. Like I just want a big plate

1677
01:25:24,720 --> 01:25:27,240
Speaker 1: with either like a duck leg or a turkey leg,

1678
01:25:27,360 --> 01:25:30,439
Speaker 1: and then the cast rolls around it mashed potatoes and

1679
01:25:30,600 --> 01:25:32,640
Speaker 1: mac and cheese. But I'm not choosing them because I

1680
01:25:32,640 --> 01:25:36,120
Speaker 1: have maasatism mac and cheese. Oh yeah, but broccoli cast role.

1681
01:25:36,880 --> 01:25:39,920
Speaker 1: My wife and her family make this awesome broccoli cast role.

1682
01:25:40,200 --> 01:25:41,080
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm going.

1683
01:25:41,120 --> 01:25:41,320
Speaker 2: Seck.

1684
01:25:42,760 --> 01:25:45,720
Speaker 3: I think I gotta go mashed and gravy here. Then

1685
01:25:46,000 --> 01:25:48,120
Speaker 3: I mean I don't get to have it that much.

1686
01:25:48,640 --> 01:25:51,360
Speaker 3: It's it's one of my favorite things and just something

1687
01:25:51,360 --> 01:25:54,479
Speaker 3: about it with the with the turkey mashed and gravy.

1688
01:25:54,760 --> 01:25:57,640
Speaker 1: Pick number two, all right, my final pick I had

1689
01:25:57,640 --> 01:25:59,839
Speaker 1: written out here of those two cast roles and then stuffing,

1690
01:26:00,200 --> 01:26:02,799
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna go with this is just the personal

1691
01:26:02,800 --> 01:26:08,040
Speaker 1: one that my wife makes. It's these roasted, roasted Brussels

1692
01:26:08,080 --> 01:26:13,639
Speaker 1: sprouts with like some panchetta goat cheese and it's it's

1693
01:26:13,720 --> 01:26:16,439
Speaker 1: just bomb And I love Brussels sprouts taking a bad rap,

1694
01:26:16,520 --> 01:26:18,680
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna I'm gonna pump them up here and

1695
01:26:18,720 --> 01:26:22,360
Speaker 1: give them some pub So I'm going roasted Brussels sprouts,

1696
01:26:22,400 --> 01:26:23,559
Speaker 1: get a little greens in there.

1697
01:26:24,000 --> 01:26:24,920
Speaker 2: I love roust sprouts too.

1698
01:26:24,920 --> 01:26:28,120
Speaker 3: I actually have Brussels sprous quite often, so I'm right

1699
01:26:28,120 --> 01:26:30,800
Speaker 3: with you there. For my third pick, I'm going to

1700
01:26:30,880 --> 01:26:33,280
Speaker 3: choose something that it's gonna probably come out of left field,

1701
01:26:33,320 --> 01:26:36,920
Speaker 3: but it's something that you really don't have other than

1702
01:26:36,960 --> 01:26:41,120
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving a lot. And uh, it's cranberry sauce. Man, Like

1703
01:26:41,160 --> 01:26:44,160
Speaker 3: I love cranberry sauce, but like, who has cranberry sauce?

1704
01:26:44,200 --> 01:26:46,960
Speaker 3: Like just wining around in the house and who's gonna

1705
01:26:46,960 --> 01:26:47,479
Speaker 3: think about it?

1706
01:26:47,640 --> 01:26:47,960
Speaker 2: No one?

1707
01:26:48,040 --> 01:26:51,080
Speaker 3: But on Thanksgiving it's there it goes with almost everything.

1708
01:26:51,560 --> 01:26:55,800
Speaker 3: So going Cranberry sauce, get a little chilled action for

1709
01:26:55,960 --> 01:26:58,360
Speaker 3: my final pick of our Thanksgiving side.

1710
01:26:58,800 --> 01:27:00,800
Speaker 2: All Right, So that was a that was a jam

1711
01:27:00,840 --> 01:27:02,320
Speaker 2: packed episode. Hope you guys enjoyed it.

1712
01:27:02,760 --> 01:27:05,760
Speaker 3: Uh you know, we went long, tried to make sure

1713
01:27:05,800 --> 01:27:08,400
Speaker 3: we hit on all the three games since really nothing

1714
01:27:08,400 --> 01:27:11,599
Speaker 3: else to do, especially in these COVID times. Hopefully everyone

1715
01:27:11,640 --> 01:27:15,679
Speaker 3: safe out there, Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. You can follow

1716
01:27:16,160 --> 01:27:19,120
Speaker 3: Stucky and all of his picks in the Action Network

1717
01:27:19,160 --> 01:27:21,880
Speaker 3: app at Stucky two. You can also find him on

1718
01:27:21,920 --> 01:27:25,080
Speaker 3: Twitter at Stucky two as well. Be on the lookout

1719
01:27:25,439 --> 01:27:28,400
Speaker 3: for all of his content coming out this week and

1720
01:27:29,200 --> 01:27:32,559
Speaker 3: say goes for me. I'm at Chris Raybond on both

1721
01:27:32,640 --> 01:27:37,840
Speaker 3: the app and Twitter. Best of wishes and safe and

1722
01:27:38,720 --> 01:27:40,120
Speaker 3: have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

1723
01:27:40,320 --> 01:27:42,080
Speaker 2: Good luck this weekend and let's get this.

1724
01:27:42,120 --> 01:28:00,599
Speaker 1: Sht happy Thanksgiving. We'll should is talking