WEBVTT - NFL Week 3 Best Bets with Kelly Stewart (Ep 206) 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:04.280 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.320 --> 0:00:07.880 I'm your host, Thomas Fiola and joining us today here, 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:12.000 of course, as always the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:15.200 in our rotating third chair, coming at us to break 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:19.400 down all of the Week three NFL action here none 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:23.240 other than Kelly in Vegas herself, Kelly Stewart. How are 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:24.120 you doing today, Kelly? 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.319 Life is good Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I don't leave 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.800 these four walls. So back to the Docto back shows. 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:31.360 I appreciate you guys having me on. This should be 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:31.800 pretty fun. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.640 We appreciate you taking the time. It's going to be 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:36.959 an exciting one. We were talking before we got on air. 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:37.200 Here. 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.080 It's a tough slate this week. There's a ton of 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:43.639 home dogs that are gonna be barking. Matt, what are 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:46.519 you thinking just over the slate in general? Were you 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:48.680 finding it hard to pick out some games for this week? 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:52.319 No, I mean, I will say, donkey that I am. 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.160 I looked at the board pretty quickly and identified games 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:58.120 that I liked, that my numbers liked, and I'm. 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.560 Just I'm still on those games like the look Ahead lines. 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:02.279 I was like, okay, I like this game, and I'm 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:03.840 still on a lot of those games. 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:06.880 Well, the first one that you're on here is the 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:12.040 Patriots and the Ravens. Patriots getting three in Foxborough right now. 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:14.360 It's not often over the years that we've been able 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:17.280 to say that, at least in my lifetime. Matt, are 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:19.440 you riding with New England here? Are you taking the 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:20.600 visiting Ravens? 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:23.200 Yeah? I have to go with New England. 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:26.000 And I feel like such a square doing this, But 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.280 you know, like Belichick as an underdog is thirty sixteen 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:32.320 and two against the spread, and he's five to one 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:35.240 and one against the spread versus John Harbaugh. Like it's 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.880 not to say that like he has Harbaugh's number or 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:40.679 anything like that, but like, historically, I think he's just 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:44.920 been able to out out maneuver and outthink Harbaugh. 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:45.480 Uh. 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:48.120 And I really like the matchup of this Patriots run 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.040 defense against the Ravens run offense. So even though the 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:54.160 Ravens are only number eleven this year in rush rate, 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.440 they are a running team at their core. Like that's 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:58.760 what happens when you have Lamar Jackson and Greg Roman. 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.960 You know, Jackson's a ground attack cheat code and Greg 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.280 Roman is by trade a run game coordinator, and everything 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.280 that they've done this offseason signaled that they wanted to 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:09.959 go into the running game, you know, getting raid of 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:13.200 number one wide receiver Markue's Brown and then replacing him 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:15.120 not with you know, wide receivers that they got in 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:16.600 the draft, but with two tight ends. 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.359 You know. But I think they could struggle to run 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:20.240 the ball, you know. JK. 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.160 Dobbins, it's not certain that he's playing. Number two running 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:24.359 back Guess Edwards is out. 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:25.520 A left tackle. 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:27.560 Ronnie Stanley is yet to play this year, and their 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.240 backup left tackle, Juwan James, he's out for the season 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:32.720 with an achilles injury. So you know, with those injuries, 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.639 the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:38.120 this year, you know, like bottom five and a lot 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.639 of key efficiency rushing metrics. So I don't think it's 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:43.920 a good situation for them. And the Patriots defense has 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:45.960 been a top five unit in yards per play, in 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:49.720 points game points per game through two games, so I 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:54.480 think it's it's a pretty even matchup, even skewed, I 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.720 would say in general towards the Patriots, and if the 0:02:57.720 --> 0:02:59.840 Patriots can keep the Ravens and check on the ground. 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:02.400 I think that forces them into a heavy reliance on 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:04.600 the passing game. And you know, while the Ravens have 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:06.919 had success in the air this year, like they're actually 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:10.480 number one in past DVOA, it's never a positive development 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:13.320 to become one dimensional against a Bill Belichick defense. And 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.960 the Ravens have been really fortunate with their matchups to 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:19.440 open the year. They faced the bottom two teams in 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.120 defensive pass EVOA, the Jets in Week one and the 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.040 Dolphins in Week two. So I'm skeptical that the Ravens 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.560 pass offense actually is as good as it has recently looked. 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.000 And if the run offense struggles in Week three, I 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:34.560 think they can have an underwhelming offensive performance overall. In 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.880 the preseason market, this was a pick them, right, I 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.560 don't think that much has changed from then to now, 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.120 so I will be taking the Patriots plus three. 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:42.960 And a pick them. 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:44.680 I want to be on the other side there with 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:48.600 the Ravens, but I hate laying points going into a 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.240 place like Foxborough. Kelly, what about you? 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:52.200 You know a wise man. 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:53.960 I think it was Todd Furman back in the day 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.119 at Don Bess told me he goes you know what, kid, 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:58.560 You're not going to get rich laying points on the road. 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.160 And I'll be honest with you, I have always made 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:03.120 it a habit since then not to lay points on 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:05.920 the road. So either I cross those games off or 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:09.400 I look towards the dog. I want to back the 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.280 dog here. I don't like that move from two and 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:13.960 a half to three. And I'm not sure who has 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:16.560 more money than me that decided that they really liked 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:18.560 the Ravens minus two and a half. Maybe they were 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:21.120 looking to get the public or some of those board 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.839 cleaners to push it to three. That does concern me. 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.920 As somebody who is a JK. Dobbins fantasy owner, I'd 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:29.120 love to see him come back this weekend be able 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.800 to run against his Patriots team. But I'm with Matt here. 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:34.080 I don't think the Ravens can get their running game going. 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:37.960 Their secondary got absolutely obliterated last week. I laid three 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:40.039 and a half with the Ravens. You guys sit on 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:42.200 the couch with Grandma. She's a big Saints fan. Saints 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:43.040 was my best bet. 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:44.400 No big deal. 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:48.400 We've got the Lions game on the iPad, the side TV. 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.440 We got another couple games on I thought I was 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:55.840 home free with that Ravens no sweat winner. Wrong, and 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.520 that's because that secondary gave up some really, really bad 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.279 like deep passes. Maybe they got a little lazy there, 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:04.880 but at some point in times you got to lock 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:07.000 it up and you can't do that. On the flip side, 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:10.120 I'm not sure that I really trust Mac Jones as 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:12.520 a game manager, and that concerns me. I do have 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:14.680 the Patriots under eight and a half wins this year, 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.120 and let me tell you, Ben, those underwins have not 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:20.640 been good for me. Historically. Bill Belichick finds ways to win. 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:24.560 Not mentioned his home underdog record, and I'll go as 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:26.120 far as to take the hot take to say he's 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:27.040 got Harbaugh's number. 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:28.920 We've seen it from time to time where. 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:33.599 Bill Belichick just does less with more and even this 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.480 last couple of years without Tom Brady, and I would 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:40.000 say I have a slight lean with the three the. 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:41.760 Field goal out to the path. I'm not going to 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:42.799 get involved in this game. 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:46.200 If you want to win a sign Joe Mixon Cincinnati 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:49.560 Bengals jersey courtesy of our friends at Christine Auction, you 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.600 need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Right 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:55.880 now comment below this video, and that is it. You 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:59.000 will automatically be entered. We will be announcing a winner 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:01.400 right here on the channel, So make sure to turn 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.240 on those notifications so you can be alerted when new 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:08.360 episodes are up and acclaim your prize. Now a game 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:09.600 that you are going to be getting involved with. You 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:12.000 don't want to lay points on the road, but you 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:15.960 we're getting a couple here with Green Bay versus Tampa. 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:18.320 That line is moving quick though it's down to a 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:20.360 pick them at most spots at this point. Does that 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:22.640 scare you off? Are you still riding with the pack 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:23.240 in Tampa? 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:24.559 Yeah, I'm riding with the pack. 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:28.280 To tell your audience to bet the pack though it would. 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:31.039 Be a little disingenuous. 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:33.680 But the good friend of mine named John Murray, we 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:35.800 used to do a podcast back to the day called Kelly, 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:36.400 and Murray. 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:38.520 Said, don't worry Kelly, games never land one. 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:41.800 Ever since then, it's been a really great joke because 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:43.800 games land one all the time, just not as much 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:47.719 as they land three. Okay, obviously games do land one, 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.720 just not at a very high rate. So we better 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:52.440 hope games don't land one here. But two and a 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:55.839 half to me difference with one pick them. I did 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:57.480 say that I liked Green Band the money line. 0:06:57.480 --> 0:06:58.320 This is gonna be a. 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.440 Really nice trophy for my shelf later because I got 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:02.640 some good CLV there. 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:04.240 This is more of a play against the Bucks. 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:05.960 If you guys watch anything I did last week, I 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.719 said I am playing against the Bucks here. This is 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:10.400 not a play on the Saints. I thought that Saints 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:12.480 Stephens was gonna do really great and then guess what, 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:16.800 laddim Makers starts throwing haymakers, and Laddimore starts throwing haymakers 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:20.080 to Mike Evans and kind of just change the whole 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:23.520 dynamic of the game. Packers looked really great against the Bears, 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:25.800 of course they did. But what I'm going to be 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:29.000 looking here for the keys for the Packers to win 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:32.320 this game is to do what we've seen them be 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:33.440 able to do offensively. 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.120 But I need that secondary to step up. 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:39.920 I don't think Tom Brady has the ability that he 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:44.120 once had. Now that may be a little disingenuous, but 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:47.120 not only does he have hurt receiving core, he has 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:51.880 no Mike Evans. At least the Thursday, what is it, 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:53.880 four or five o'clock on the East coast. I haven't 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.680 heard anything about his appeal as of right now. We've 0:07:56.680 --> 0:08:00.720 got Julio Jones injured, We've got kridad when it for 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:02.840 Nett is going to have to be able to. 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:03.520 Run the ball. 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:06.320 But can you really run the ball against this Packers 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:10.480 front seven. I don't know how I feel about it, 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.640 but this is Aaron Rodgers one of those games that 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:15.720 he's gonna want to get back from a little bit 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.840 of revenge from two years ago to f C Championship game. 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:22.000 And I really think that this is a Packers team 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.640 that has done well for me in the underdog position 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.520 on the road. We know that usually that doesn't happen, 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:31.680 but they've covered seven of their last eleven and I'm 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.160 going to take them here on Sunday. As I mentioned, 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:37.240 I may have a trophy in my pocket comes Sunday morning, 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:38.440 but I did my job. 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:39.800 I got the best of the number here with. 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:42.880 The pack If closing line value could pay the bills, 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:46.240 we would all be very rich right now. But you 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:49.040 know I was if Packers are passed for me too. 0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:52.400 The Buccaneers wide receivers are so banged up that Cole 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:54.440 Beasley's on the practice squad. It might have to see 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.320 it say that's that's not good. 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:58.400 That's just wild to me. I didn't even know he 0:08:58.440 --> 0:08:59.319 was still in the league. 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.240 He was, he's been on the couch. 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:04.160 But about being able to run, you know, this is 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.520 gonna be a Leonard Fournette game. David Montgomery did have 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:10.160 some success, like if the Bears were moving the football, 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.600 it was because it was on the ground with Montgomery 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:14.959 and Herbert Matt Do you think that they're gonna be 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:17.840 able to find that same success that the Bears did 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:20.600 or are you riding with the pack here? Yeah? 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.000 I mean, speaking of closing line value, I bet this 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:24.559 on the look Ahead when it was three and a 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:27.480 half because that just felt so so egregious. And I 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.760 have this now at one point twenty five, so I'm 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:33.080 right in line with the market. But honestly, I might 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:35.280 I might bump it down a little bit as we 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.840 get more practice reports or injury reports rather, you know, 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:43.360 with Julio Jones not practicing, left tackle, Donovan Smith not 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:48.400 certain to play backup left tackle, Josh Well's definitely out 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:51.320 for this game. Just a ton of uncertainty on the 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:54.280 offensive line and at wide receiver for Tom Brady. So 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:58.400 I'm imagining, as I'm updating my power ratings and numbers 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:02.240 and you know, reviewing reports, I will knock this number down, 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:04.600 probably not all the way to a pick them, but 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:08.080 certainly closer to that than to the three that this 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:08.760 opened at. 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:12.280 Now. I know that you're not high on the Raiders 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:14.480 from here in Vegas at all, and let's be frank, 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.520 they've given you a lot of reason not to be 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:18.959 through two games here. But it's an zero to two 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.840 battle as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans, 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:26.240 who just got absolutely molly wopped on Monday Night football? 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:28.280 Are you still going to take the Titans on the 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:31.120 short rest? Derek Henry has not looked like the king 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:32.760 we were promised so far this year. 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:37.480 Yeah, feeling very good about under on the Raiders for 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:39.280 eight and a half with the win total. I don't 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:41.760 feel as good about betting against them in the spot, 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:44.080 but my number is telling me to do it, so 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:45.840 I'm doing it. And you look at some of the 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.280 historical trends here, Derek Carr, I mean, this guy as 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:53.000 a favorite has just massively underwhelmed throughout his career thirteen 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:55.439 twenty four and one against the spread as a favorite 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:59.800 one seven to one against the spread as a favorite 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:02.640 versus a team that made the playoffs in the previous year. 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:07.040 So that record is just absolutely horrible. And Mike Rabel, 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:09.680 you know, like a very particular type of coach, like 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:13.160 a raw, raw type of coach, not really a tactician, 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.320 but eighteen and twelve against the spread as an underdog, 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:18.960 eight and four against the spread as a home underdog, 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.480 and when his team has had back to back losses 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.480 five to one to one against the spread. The matchup 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.800 that really has my eye in this game is the 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:30.360 Titans pass rush against the Raiders pass blocking. Even without 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.839 edge Harold Landry who's out for the season with a 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.480 knee injury, the Titans defensive line I think has a 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:38.400 pretty marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line, at least 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.360 looking in our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings. And you know, 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:44.160 specifically the Titans this year this year have excelled at 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.839 rushing the quarterback. The Raiders have struggled, I think most 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:51.960 in pass protection and center Andre James. He missed Week 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:55.040 two with a concussion. He hasn't returned to practice yet 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.840 as we're recording this. I think the right side of 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:01.560 that offensive line would be especial vulnerable if he's out, 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:04.400 so in his absence last week, rookie right guard Dylan 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.400 parum He shifted to center, and then undrafted fourth year 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.880 backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.240 at right guard. I mean those two guys. Come on, 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.000 those two guys going against second team All Pro defensive 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.560 tackle Jeffrey Simmons, who had eight and a half sacks 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.360 last year, like he could wreak havoc against those two. 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:24.640 And then on the end of the line is right 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:29.640 right tackle Jermaine lu Manor. I don't know how to 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.280 pronounce his last name. I'm just giving it an honest 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:32.720 shot here. 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.280 The point is no one pretty good I would not 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:35.959 do as well. 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:38.439 No one should have to try to pronounce this guy's 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:41.559 name because he shouldn't be starting. He's a journeyman backup 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.400 who has played most of his snaps at guard, and 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:47.280 now somehow he's starting at right tackle. Like he will 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:51.160 be outmatched by edges of Deniko Autrey and Bud Dupree, 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:53.800 assuming dupre plays. Even if Dupree doesn't play, I don't 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:56.840 think it really matters. So like that matchup of this 0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:59.520 defensive line going against an offensive line that I don't 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:02.480 think is enough to block them, means that Derek Carr 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.320 could have a significant amount of pressure coming his way 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.080 on the road for a lot of the game. This 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:13.280 was Titans one point seventy five in the preseason market. Yeah, 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.480 I just think there's value here the Titans. They're own too, 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.160 but so are the Raiders, So I will take the 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.160 Titans at two and a half. 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.160 I'm worried about the tailor of a wand injury myself 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.560 that could make this really interesting when it comes to 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.600 the Titans' ability to block the pressure from the Raiders 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.760 front that admittedly has been a little lacklust to hear, 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:34.480 Chandler Jones is not an upgrade over Anakin Gotway, and 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.760 the Raiders are finding that out right now, but they 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.000 still have Max Crosby. I'm personally looking to the under 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:41.920 in that game. I think that this one could end 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.120 up being one of those games where neither offense really 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.280 gets off the ground and they just look ineffective. Kelly, 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:49.120 any thoughts on this game before we shift over to 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:49.920 your next pick here? 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:51.880 You know, I think sometimes you got to look at 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.080 these a little situationally, right, Matt, I'm sure has an 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.600 amazing set of power ratings, and I've got some sharp 0:13:57.640 --> 0:13:58.360 people that let. 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.560 Me allow to be theirs. 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.679 And I think sometimes when you're looking at the NFL's 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.199 look at what we saw last Matt mentioned the look 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:10.280 ahead lines. Sometimes even those are really a great handicapping tool. 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.400 What the line should have been had that previous game 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:15.920 win a different direction? How the Titans not got blown 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:20.000 out on Monday night football in an embarrassing passion on 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:24.280 the road in Buffalo. This line should be Titans minus 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:26.000 one and a half Titans minus two. 0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:27.160 Yet here we are. 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.200 And you also have to wonder, on the flip side, 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:33.080 how good the Raiders really are that second half, particularly 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.160 that late fourth quarter comeback by the Cardinals, who I 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.440 don't think are particularly that great of a team either. 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.160 Sometimes teams lose games twice. Now I understand these are professionals, 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:44.840 these are not college kids. But we've seen it happen 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:47.600 before where you can't get that monkey off your back 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.800 or don't rebound fast enough. This looks like a game 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:52.760 I don't want any part of. But I will tell 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:56.840 you this. And while full disclosure teasers have been getting obliterated, 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.120 my teasers have just been getting blown up. 0:14:59.160 --> 0:14:59.560 I'm talking. 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:02.960 I'm taking low total, so I'm doing getting over seven 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:05.280 excuse me over seven with seven and a half, eight 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.760 and a half, And it doesn't matter because some of 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:09.680 these teams are so bad they can't even keep it 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:11.000 respectable at home. 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.880 That's right, I'm looking at you, Washington. 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.720 That being said, there's a couple of spots I think 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:19.120 are a good teaser played this weekend. 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:20.520 The Titans are one of them. 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.560 I'm with you on that, But you're also looking at 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:25.680 a game that I kind of like on a six 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:29.520 point teaser here Kansas City. The Chiefs head to Indy 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:33.360 to take on the Colts. Man, you tie the Texans 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.560 week one, you get obliterated by Jackson Jelle. That's never 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:38.800 something you want to hear in week two, and now 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:43.120 your home opener is against Kansas City. This isn't pretty 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.440 for the Colts here, but can they keep this one close? 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:48.920 The big questions is, obviously it is Thursday. We need 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:52.120 to see what's going on with Pittman and Leonard. But 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:56.560 I will say this, Jonathan Taylor needs utilize still more. 0:15:56.920 --> 0:16:01.000 If the Colts run the ball with him, slow down 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:06.680 and take thirteen seconds to just give Matt Ryan any time. 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:06.800 Now. 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.000 I know Matt Ryan, if you look right now, is 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:12.800 just getting eaten alive on Twitter because he takes over 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.000 three seconds to release. 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.680 But they've got to give the old man some time. 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:22.560 The Colts have been terrible as home underdogs, but they 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.760 have covered five of their last six. Historically not been great, 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.320 but lately they've been Okay. This is the Chiefs team 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.040 that I don't think is could look any better right 0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:33.640 Chiefs look amazing right now, and we know that historically 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:37.280 they haven't been for about the last two years covering spreads. 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:41.000 Well now here they are coming back. And I thought 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:41.960 we were gonna get a seven. 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:43.480 When you asked me what I wanted to be on, 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:45.640 I wanted to be all over the Colts plus seven. 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:46.400 I was ready. 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.600 I was sitting there at my odd screen open. I said, 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:50.720 here we go. I'll get a seven, six and a half, 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.560 six and a half. I do four hours of filming yesterday. 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:55.880 I log it, I'm like five and a half. Who 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.120 in the world bet then plus six and a half? 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.400 Why couldn't you guys just wait? And at five and 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.320 a half, I'm gonna be really honestly, that makes me 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:07.359 sick to my stomach to even contemplate taking the Colts. 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.320 I actually did not end up betting them. Sometimes it's 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:12.439 okay to pass sometimes to say, you know what, I 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.600 didn't get the number that I wanted, I'm going to pass. 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:16.320 But I will say the Colts are going to be 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.680 an excellent play. And a lot of pick five contests 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:21.000 that I'm in, I'm even in a pick sep and 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:22.560 I've got six and a half in all of them 0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:23.600 because those lines come. 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:24.399 Out Monday and Tuesday. 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:26.600 So right now I have the ability to take a 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:28.960 stale number and guess what, every Tom, Dick and Harry 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:30.480 in those kinds they're still going to lay six and 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:30.840 a half. 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.720 With the Chiefs, And so hopefully we can get in there. 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.840 Game might land six and I may get lucky to 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.040 win by the hook, but at five and a half, unfortunately, 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:41.400 I don't know what to make of this Colts team. 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.239 Would I be surprised if the Colts went out right 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:46.000 on Sunday? Absolutely not. This is what this Colts team does. 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:50.360 But having six quarterbacks over the last six seasons, they 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:52.640