Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Fiola and joining us today here,
Speaker 1: of course, as always the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and
Speaker 1: in our rotating third chair, coming at us to break
Speaker 1: down all of the Week three NFL action here none
Speaker 1: other than Kelly in Vegas herself, Kelly Stewart. How are
Speaker 1: you doing today, Kelly?
Speaker 2: Life is good Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I don't leave
Speaker 2: these four walls. So back to the Docto back shows.
Speaker 2: I appreciate you guys having me on. This should be
Speaker 2: pretty fun.
Speaker 1: We appreciate you taking the time. It's going to be
Speaker 1: an exciting one. We were talking before we got on air.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: It's a tough slate this week. There's a ton of
Speaker 1: home dogs that are gonna be barking. Matt, what are
Speaker 1: you thinking just over the slate in general? Were you
Speaker 1: finding it hard to pick out some games for this week?
Speaker 4: No, I mean, I will say, donkey that I am.
Speaker 4: I looked at the board pretty quickly and identified games
Speaker 4: that I liked, that my numbers liked, and I'm.
Speaker 5: Just I'm still on those games like the look Ahead lines.
Speaker 4: I was like, okay, I like this game, and I'm
Speaker 4: still on a lot of those games.
Speaker 1: Well, the first one that you're on here is the
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Ravens. Patriots getting three in Foxborough right now.
Speaker 1: It's not often over the years that we've been able
Speaker 1: to say that, at least in my lifetime. Matt, are
Speaker 1: you riding with New England here? Are you taking the
Speaker 1: visiting Ravens?
Speaker 5: Yeah? I have to go with New England.
Speaker 4: And I feel like such a square doing this, But
Speaker 4: you know, like Belichick as an underdog is thirty sixteen
Speaker 4: and two against the spread, and he's five to one
Speaker 4: and one against the spread versus John Harbaugh. Like it's
Speaker 4: not to say that like he has Harbaugh's number or
Speaker 4: anything like that, but like, historically, I think he's just
Speaker 4: been able to out out maneuver and outthink Harbaugh.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 4: And I really like the matchup of this Patriots run
Speaker 4: defense against the Ravens run offense. So even though the
Speaker 4: Ravens are only number eleven this year in rush rate,
Speaker 4: they are a running team at their core. Like that's
Speaker 4: what happens when you have Lamar Jackson and Greg Roman.
Speaker 4: You know, Jackson's a ground attack cheat code and Greg
Speaker 4: Roman is by trade a run game coordinator, and everything
Speaker 4: that they've done this offseason signaled that they wanted to
Speaker 4: go into the running game, you know, getting raid of
Speaker 4: number one wide receiver Markue's Brown and then replacing him
Speaker 4: not with you know, wide receivers that they got in
Speaker 4: the draft, but with two tight ends.
Speaker 5: You know. But I think they could struggle to run
Speaker 5: the ball, you know. JK.
Speaker 4: Dobbins, it's not certain that he's playing. Number two running
Speaker 4: back Guess Edwards is out.
Speaker 5: A left tackle.
Speaker 4: Ronnie Stanley is yet to play this year, and their
Speaker 4: backup left tackle, Juwan James, he's out for the season
Speaker 4: with an achilles injury. So you know, with those injuries,
Speaker 4: the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground
Speaker 4: this year, you know, like bottom five and a lot
Speaker 4: of key efficiency rushing metrics. So I don't think it's
Speaker 4: a good situation for them. And the Patriots defense has
Speaker 4: been a top five unit in yards per play, in
Speaker 4: points game points per game through two games, so I
Speaker 4: think it's it's a pretty even matchup, even skewed, I
Speaker 4: would say in general towards the Patriots, and if the
Speaker 4: Patriots can keep the Ravens and check on the ground.
Speaker 4: I think that forces them into a heavy reliance on
Speaker 4: the passing game. And you know, while the Ravens have
Speaker 4: had success in the air this year, like they're actually
Speaker 4: number one in past DVOA, it's never a positive development
Speaker 4: to become one dimensional against a Bill Belichick defense. And
Speaker 4: the Ravens have been really fortunate with their matchups to
Speaker 4: open the year. They faced the bottom two teams in
Speaker 4: defensive pass EVOA, the Jets in Week one and the
Speaker 4: Dolphins in Week two. So I'm skeptical that the Ravens
Speaker 4: pass offense actually is as good as it has recently looked.
Speaker 4: And if the run offense struggles in Week three, I
Speaker 4: think they can have an underwhelming offensive performance overall. In
Speaker 4: the preseason market, this was a pick them, right, I
Speaker 4: don't think that much has changed from then to now,
Speaker 4: so I will be taking the Patriots plus three.
Speaker 5: And a pick them.
Speaker 1: I want to be on the other side there with
Speaker 1: the Ravens, but I hate laying points going into a
Speaker 1: place like Foxborough. Kelly, what about you?
Speaker 3: You know a wise man.
Speaker 2: I think it was Todd Furman back in the day
Speaker 2: at Don Bess told me he goes you know what, kid,
Speaker 2: You're not going to get rich laying points on the road.
Speaker 2: And I'll be honest with you, I have always made
Speaker 2: it a habit since then not to lay points on
Speaker 2: the road. So either I cross those games off or
Speaker 2: I look towards the dog. I want to back the
Speaker 2: dog here. I don't like that move from two and
Speaker 2: a half to three. And I'm not sure who has
Speaker 2: more money than me that decided that they really liked
Speaker 2: the Ravens minus two and a half. Maybe they were
Speaker 2: looking to get the public or some of those board
Speaker 2: cleaners to push it to three. That does concern me.
Speaker 2: As somebody who is a JK. Dobbins fantasy owner, I'd
Speaker 2: love to see him come back this weekend be able
Speaker 2: to run against his Patriots team. But I'm with Matt here.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Ravens can get their running game going.
Speaker 2: Their secondary got absolutely obliterated last week. I laid three
Speaker 2: and a half with the Ravens. You guys sit on
Speaker 2: the couch with Grandma. She's a big Saints fan. Saints
Speaker 2: was my best bet.
Speaker 3: No big deal.
Speaker 2: We've got the Lions game on the iPad, the side TV.
Speaker 2: We got another couple games on I thought I was
Speaker 2: home free with that Ravens no sweat winner. Wrong, and
Speaker 2: that's because that secondary gave up some really, really bad
Speaker 2: like deep passes. Maybe they got a little lazy there,
Speaker 2: but at some point in times you got to lock
Speaker 2: it up and you can't do that. On the flip side,
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that I really trust Mac Jones as
Speaker 2: a game manager, and that concerns me. I do have
Speaker 2: the Patriots under eight and a half wins this year,
Speaker 2: and let me tell you, Ben, those underwins have not
Speaker 2: been good for me. Historically. Bill Belichick finds ways to win.
Speaker 2: Not mentioned his home underdog record, and I'll go as
Speaker 2: far as to take the hot take to say he's
Speaker 2: got Harbaugh's number.
Speaker 3: We've seen it from time to time where.
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick just does less with more and even this
Speaker 2: last couple of years without Tom Brady, and I would
Speaker 2: say I have a slight lean with the three the.
Speaker 3: Field goal out to the path. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: get involved in this game.
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Speaker 1: episodes are up and acclaim your prize. Now a game
Speaker 1: that you are going to be getting involved with. You
Speaker 1: don't want to lay points on the road, but you
Speaker 1: we're getting a couple here with Green Bay versus Tampa.
Speaker 1: That line is moving quick though it's down to a
Speaker 1: pick them at most spots at this point. Does that
Speaker 1: scare you off? Are you still riding with the pack
Speaker 1: in Tampa?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm riding with the pack.
Speaker 2: To tell your audience to bet the pack though it would.
Speaker 3: Be a little disingenuous.
Speaker 2: But the good friend of mine named John Murray, we
Speaker 2: used to do a podcast back to the day called Kelly,
Speaker 2: and Murray.
Speaker 3: Said, don't worry Kelly, games never land one.
Speaker 2: Ever since then, it's been a really great joke because
Speaker 2: games land one all the time, just not as much
Speaker 2: as they land three. Okay, obviously games do land one,
Speaker 2: just not at a very high rate. So we better
Speaker 2: hope games don't land one here. But two and a
Speaker 2: half to me difference with one pick them. I did
Speaker 2: say that I liked Green Band the money line.
Speaker 3: This is gonna be a.
Speaker 2: Really nice trophy for my shelf later because I got
Speaker 2: some good CLV there.
Speaker 3: This is more of a play against the Bucks.
Speaker 2: If you guys watch anything I did last week, I
Speaker 2: said I am playing against the Bucks here. This is
Speaker 2: not a play on the Saints. I thought that Saints
Speaker 2: Stephens was gonna do really great and then guess what,
Speaker 2: laddim Makers starts throwing haymakers, and Laddimore starts throwing haymakers
Speaker 2: to Mike Evans and kind of just change the whole
Speaker 2: dynamic of the game. Packers looked really great against the Bears,
Speaker 2: of course they did. But what I'm going to be
Speaker 2: looking here for the keys for the Packers to win
Speaker 2: this game is to do what we've seen them be
Speaker 2: able to do offensively.
Speaker 3: But I need that secondary to step up.
Speaker 2: I don't think Tom Brady has the ability that he
Speaker 2: once had. Now that may be a little disingenuous, but
Speaker 2: not only does he have hurt receiving core, he has
Speaker 2: no Mike Evans. At least the Thursday, what is it,
Speaker 2: four or five o'clock on the East coast. I haven't
Speaker 2: heard anything about his appeal as of right now. We've
Speaker 2: got Julio Jones injured, We've got kridad when it for
Speaker 2: Nett is going to have to be able to.
Speaker 3: Run the ball.
Speaker 2: But can you really run the ball against this Packers
Speaker 2: front seven. I don't know how I feel about it,
Speaker 2: but this is Aaron Rodgers one of those games that
Speaker 2: he's gonna want to get back from a little bit
Speaker 2: of revenge from two years ago to f C Championship game.
Speaker 2: And I really think that this is a Packers team
Speaker 2: that has done well for me in the underdog position
Speaker 2: on the road. We know that usually that doesn't happen,
Speaker 2: but they've covered seven of their last eleven and I'm
Speaker 2: going to take them here on Sunday. As I mentioned,
Speaker 2: I may have a trophy in my pocket comes Sunday morning,
Speaker 2: but I did my job.
Speaker 3: I got the best of the number here with.
Speaker 1: The pack If closing line value could pay the bills,
Speaker 1: we would all be very rich right now. But you
Speaker 1: know I was if Packers are passed for me too.
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers wide receivers are so banged up that Cole
Speaker 1: Beasley's on the practice squad. It might have to see
Speaker 1: it say that's that's not good.
Speaker 3: That's just wild to me. I didn't even know he
Speaker 3: was still in the league.
Speaker 5: He was, he's been on the couch.
Speaker 1: But about being able to run, you know, this is
Speaker 1: gonna be a Leonard Fournette game. David Montgomery did have
Speaker 1: some success, like if the Bears were moving the football,
Speaker 1: it was because it was on the ground with Montgomery
Speaker 1: and Herbert Matt Do you think that they're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to find that same success that the Bears did
Speaker 1: or are you riding with the pack here? Yeah?
Speaker 4: I mean, speaking of closing line value, I bet this
Speaker 4: on the look Ahead when it was three and a
Speaker 4: half because that just felt so so egregious. And I
Speaker 4: have this now at one point twenty five, so I'm
Speaker 4: right in line with the market. But honestly, I might
Speaker 4: I might bump it down a little bit as we
Speaker 4: get more practice reports or injury reports rather, you know,
Speaker 4: with Julio Jones not practicing, left tackle, Donovan Smith not
Speaker 4: certain to play backup left tackle, Josh Well's definitely out
Speaker 4: for this game. Just a ton of uncertainty on the
Speaker 4: offensive line and at wide receiver for Tom Brady. So
Speaker 4: I'm imagining, as I'm updating my power ratings and numbers
Speaker 4: and you know, reviewing reports, I will knock this number down,
Speaker 4: probably not all the way to a pick them, but
Speaker 4: certainly closer to that than to the three that this
Speaker 4: opened at.
Speaker 1: Now. I know that you're not high on the Raiders
Speaker 1: from here in Vegas at all, and let's be frank,
Speaker 1: they've given you a lot of reason not to be
Speaker 1: through two games here. But it's an zero to two
Speaker 1: battle as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans,
Speaker 1: who just got absolutely molly wopped on Monday Night football?
Speaker 1: Are you still going to take the Titans on the
Speaker 1: short rest? Derek Henry has not looked like the king
Speaker 1: we were promised so far this year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, feeling very good about under on the Raiders for
Speaker 4: eight and a half with the win total. I don't
Speaker 4: feel as good about betting against them in the spot,
Speaker 4: but my number is telling me to do it, so
Speaker 4: I'm doing it. And you look at some of the
Speaker 4: historical trends here, Derek Carr, I mean, this guy as
Speaker 4: a favorite has just massively underwhelmed throughout his career thirteen
Speaker 4: twenty four and one against the spread as a favorite
Speaker 4: one seven to one against the spread as a favorite
Speaker 4: versus a team that made the playoffs in the previous year.
Speaker 4: So that record is just absolutely horrible. And Mike Rabel,
Speaker 4: you know, like a very particular type of coach, like
Speaker 4: a raw, raw type of coach, not really a tactician,
Speaker 4: but eighteen and twelve against the spread as an underdog,
Speaker 4: eight and four against the spread as a home underdog,
Speaker 4: and when his team has had back to back losses
Speaker 4: five to one to one against the spread. The matchup
Speaker 4: that really has my eye in this game is the
Speaker 4: Titans pass rush against the Raiders pass blocking. Even without
Speaker 4: edge Harold Landry who's out for the season with a
Speaker 4: knee injury, the Titans defensive line I think has a
Speaker 4: pretty marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line, at least
Speaker 4: looking in our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings. And you know,
Speaker 4: specifically the Titans this year this year have excelled at
Speaker 4: rushing the quarterback. The Raiders have struggled, I think most
Speaker 4: in pass protection and center Andre James. He missed Week
Speaker 4: two with a concussion. He hasn't returned to practice yet
Speaker 4: as we're recording this. I think the right side of
Speaker 4: that offensive line would be especial vulnerable if he's out,
Speaker 4: so in his absence last week, rookie right guard Dylan
Speaker 4: parum He shifted to center, and then undrafted fourth year
Speaker 4: backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in
Speaker 4: at right guard. I mean those two guys. Come on,
Speaker 4: those two guys going against second team All Pro defensive
Speaker 4: tackle Jeffrey Simmons, who had eight and a half sacks
Speaker 4: last year, like he could wreak havoc against those two.
Speaker 4: And then on the end of the line is right
Speaker 4: right tackle Jermaine lu Manor. I don't know how to
Speaker 4: pronounce his last name. I'm just giving it an honest
Speaker 4: shot here.
Speaker 3: The point is no one pretty good I would not
Speaker 3: do as well.
Speaker 4: No one should have to try to pronounce this guy's
Speaker 4: name because he shouldn't be starting. He's a journeyman backup
Speaker 4: who has played most of his snaps at guard, and
Speaker 4: now somehow he's starting at right tackle. Like he will
Speaker 4: be outmatched by edges of Deniko Autrey and Bud Dupree,
Speaker 4: assuming dupre plays. Even if Dupree doesn't play, I don't
Speaker 4: think it really matters. So like that matchup of this
Speaker 4: defensive line going against an offensive line that I don't
Speaker 4: think is enough to block them, means that Derek Carr
Speaker 4: could have a significant amount of pressure coming his way
Speaker 4: on the road for a lot of the game. This
Speaker 4: was Titans one point seventy five in the preseason market. Yeah,
Speaker 4: I just think there's value here the Titans. They're own too,
Speaker 4: but so are the Raiders, So I will take the
Speaker 4: Titans at two and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm worried about the tailor of a wand injury myself
Speaker 1: that could make this really interesting when it comes to
Speaker 1: the Titans' ability to block the pressure from the Raiders
Speaker 1: front that admittedly has been a little lacklust to hear,
Speaker 1: Chandler Jones is not an upgrade over Anakin Gotway, and
Speaker 1: the Raiders are finding that out right now, but they
Speaker 1: still have Max Crosby. I'm personally looking to the under
Speaker 1: in that game. I think that this one could end
Speaker 1: up being one of those games where neither offense really
Speaker 1: gets off the ground and they just look ineffective. Kelly,
Speaker 1: any thoughts on this game before we shift over to
Speaker 1: your next pick here?
Speaker 2: You know, I think sometimes you got to look at
Speaker 2: these a little situationally, right, Matt, I'm sure has an
Speaker 2: amazing set of power ratings, and I've got some sharp
Speaker 2: people that let.
Speaker 3: Me allow to be theirs.
Speaker 2: And I think sometimes when you're looking at the NFL's
Speaker 2: look at what we saw last Matt mentioned the look
Speaker 2: ahead lines. Sometimes even those are really a great handicapping tool.
Speaker 2: What the line should have been had that previous game
Speaker 2: win a different direction? How the Titans not got blown
Speaker 2: out on Monday night football in an embarrassing passion on
Speaker 2: the road in Buffalo. This line should be Titans minus
Speaker 2: one and a half Titans minus two.
Speaker 3: Yet here we are.
Speaker 2: And you also have to wonder, on the flip side,
Speaker 2: how good the Raiders really are that second half, particularly
Speaker 2: that late fourth quarter comeback by the Cardinals, who I
Speaker 2: don't think are particularly that great of a team either.
Speaker 2: Sometimes teams lose games twice. Now I understand these are professionals,
Speaker 2: these are not college kids. But we've seen it happen
Speaker 2: before where you can't get that monkey off your back
Speaker 2: or don't rebound fast enough. This looks like a game
Speaker 2: I don't want any part of. But I will tell
Speaker 2: you this. And while full disclosure teasers have been getting obliterated,
Speaker 2: my teasers have just been getting blown up.
Speaker 3: I'm talking.
Speaker 2: I'm taking low total, so I'm doing getting over seven
Speaker 2: excuse me over seven with seven and a half, eight
Speaker 2: and a half, And it doesn't matter because some of
Speaker 2: these teams are so bad they can't even keep it
Speaker 2: respectable at home.
Speaker 3: That's right, I'm looking at you, Washington.
Speaker 2: That being said, there's a couple of spots I think
Speaker 2: are a good teaser played this weekend.
Speaker 3: The Titans are one of them.
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that, But you're also looking at
Speaker 1: a game that I kind of like on a six
Speaker 1: point teaser here Kansas City. The Chiefs head to Indy
Speaker 1: to take on the Colts. Man, you tie the Texans
Speaker 1: week one, you get obliterated by Jackson Jelle. That's never
Speaker 1: something you want to hear in week two, and now
Speaker 1: your home opener is against Kansas City. This isn't pretty
Speaker 1: for the Colts here, but can they keep this one close?
Speaker 2: The big questions is, obviously it is Thursday. We need
Speaker 2: to see what's going on with Pittman and Leonard. But
Speaker 2: I will say this, Jonathan Taylor needs utilize still more.
Speaker 2: If the Colts run the ball with him, slow down
Speaker 2: and take thirteen seconds to just give Matt Ryan any time.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: I know Matt Ryan, if you look right now, is
Speaker 2: just getting eaten alive on Twitter because he takes over
Speaker 2: three seconds to release.
Speaker 3: But they've got to give the old man some time.
Speaker 2: The Colts have been terrible as home underdogs, but they
Speaker 2: have covered five of their last six. Historically not been great,
Speaker 2: but lately they've been Okay. This is the Chiefs team
Speaker 2: that I don't think is could look any better right
Speaker 2: Chiefs look amazing right now, and we know that historically
Speaker 2: they haven't been for about the last two years covering spreads.
Speaker 3: Well now here they are coming back. And I thought
Speaker 3: we were gonna get a seven.
Speaker 2: When you asked me what I wanted to be on,
Speaker 2: I wanted to be all over the Colts plus seven.
Speaker 1: I was ready.
Speaker 2: I was sitting there at my odd screen open. I said,
Speaker 2: here we go. I'll get a seven, six and a half,
Speaker 2: six and a half. I do four hours of filming yesterday.
Speaker 2: I log it, I'm like five and a half. Who
Speaker 2: in the world bet then plus six and a half?
Speaker 2: Why couldn't you guys just wait? And at five and
Speaker 2: a half, I'm gonna be really honestly, that makes me
Speaker 2: sick to my stomach to even contemplate taking the Colts.
Speaker 2: I actually did not end up betting them. Sometimes it's
Speaker 2: okay to pass sometimes to say, you know what, I
Speaker 2: didn't get the number that I wanted, I'm going to pass.
Speaker 2: But I will say the Colts are going to be
Speaker 2: an excellent play. And a lot of pick five contests
Speaker 2: that I'm in, I'm even in a pick sep and
Speaker 2: I've got six and a half in all of them
Speaker 2: because those lines come.
Speaker 3: Out Monday and Tuesday.
Speaker 2: So right now I have the ability to take a
Speaker 2: stale number and guess what, every Tom, Dick and Harry
Speaker 2: in those kinds they're still going to lay six and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 3: With the Chiefs, And so hopefully we can get in there.
Speaker 2: Game might land six and I may get lucky to
Speaker 2: win by the hook, but at five and a half, unfortunately,
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of this Colts team.
Speaker 2: Would I be surprised if the Colts went out right
Speaker 2: on Sunday? Absolutely not. This is what this Colts team does.
Speaker 2: But having six quarterbacks over the last six seasons, they
Speaker 2: just don't have a lot of continuity, and that conurns
Speaker 2: me here. I do think Frank Wright is a really
Speaker 2: good coach, and I think he's getting a lot of
Speaker 2: grief right now. But he's on the hots and he's
Speaker 2: got to make moves here. One day, we'll see how
Speaker 2: it ends up playing out. But unfortunately at five and
Speaker 2: a half, I do have to pass.
Speaker 1: One of my favorite sports betting anecdotes of all time
Speaker 1: from Vinnie Maulo with Gone Gaming. He said, the advantage
Speaker 1: that the Better has over the book is the fact
Speaker 1: that the book has to put up a number and
Speaker 1: take action on every single game. Yeah, Better can choose
Speaker 1: which games they want to take, and that's the only
Speaker 1: true advantage that you're getting there. Passing is a perfectly
Speaker 1: reasonable thing to do. You don't have to take a
Speaker 1: position on every game. But I will say if it
Speaker 1: does sway anybody's opinion here, Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman,
Speaker 1: they both practiced yesterday. They said they're feeling good. They
Speaker 1: said it's still a game time decision if they're going
Speaker 1: to be playing Matt. Is there any way that you're
Speaker 1: factoring this in here?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm imagining that this line will get even shorter
Speaker 4: because I would bet that they both do play and yeah, Kelly,
Speaker 4: I think absolutely spot on with the idea of taking
Speaker 4: this in contest because that, yeah, that number six and
Speaker 4: a half is there, and so we will be getting
Speaker 4: some nice closing line value if this continues to move
Speaker 4: down and I have it right around the market right now,
Speaker 4: I have this at five point twenty five, and you know,
Speaker 4: if we see those guys in the game, that line
Speaker 4: might move a little bit for me as well. So
Speaker 4: I'm not betting it at five and a half, but
Speaker 4: six and a half in contest, I think is a
Speaker 4: really sharp move.
Speaker 1: And friend of the Show Captain Jack he pointed out
Speaker 1: when it comes to contest plays, when you know that
Speaker 1: people are going to be laying with that six and
Speaker 1: a half on the chiefs, if you can take the
Speaker 1: other side in a game like that, if you come
Speaker 1: out on top, that's like getting two wins instead of
Speaker 1: one by being able to beat the public so much. Here, guys,
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Speaker 1: dot com for details. But Matt, your next game up
Speaker 1: on the board, you are going with the Washington Commies,
Speaker 1: the Commanders six and a half again the Eagles here,
Speaker 1: and I feel like Carson Wentz has been the least
Speaker 1: talked about guy who's actually in the top three when
Speaker 1: it comes to passing yards right now, up there with
Speaker 1: elite names like Joe Flacco. It's a weird season through
Speaker 1: two weeks, but you're on the Commanders here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel really disgusting doing this, Like I did
Speaker 4: not want to be on on this game, and if
Speaker 4: I was going to be on this game, I didn't
Speaker 4: want to be on this side of it. But yeah,
Speaker 4: you know, I think that there's significant value on the
Speaker 4: Commanders in this spot. Nick Sirianni for the Eagles one
Speaker 4: four and one against the spread in division and divisional underdogs.
Speaker 4: You know, this is the time of year. Divisional underdogs
Speaker 4: in general, I think offer value, especially in the first
Speaker 4: half of the year, but then really in the first
Speaker 4: month of the season. Two hundred and five to one,
Speaker 4: forty six to eleven against the spread divisional underdogs in
Speaker 4: weeks one through four, and I think it's it's a
Speaker 4: situation where the Commanders like, yes, we have the narrative
Speaker 4: of like the revenge game and all of that. Maybe
Speaker 4: that factors in a little bit, But really, this interior
Speaker 4: offensive line for the Commanders, it looks like it's in shambles.
Speaker 4: But I think it's actually a little bit better of
Speaker 4: a situation than people might think. So, center Chase Rallier,
Speaker 4: he's out for the year, as is his backup Tyler Larson,
Speaker 4: and so that means that we are going to see
Speaker 4: a right guard shift over to play tackle. And the
Speaker 4: thing is this line is also missing its two starting
Speaker 4: guards from last year, so year over year, they are
Speaker 4: starting three new players in their interior and that exact
Speaker 4: trio has never played together as a unit, and going
Speaker 4: against defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, that looks
Speaker 4: like a disaster waiting to happen. Even so, I think
Speaker 4: the Commanders will will do well enough on the interior
Speaker 4: of their offensive line. So right guard Wesh White's who
Speaker 4: is shifting over to center. He's made nineteen starts in
Speaker 4: the interior for the Commanders since twenty twenty, so he
Speaker 4: knows the system. Replacing him at right guard is backup
Speaker 4: Trey Turner, who is a Pro bowler, five time Pro
Speaker 4: bowler from Carolina, and so he knows the system as well.
Speaker 4: And left guard Andrew Norwell, he's new to the team,
Speaker 4: but he is another Panthers transplant who was an All
Speaker 4: Pro in twenty seventeen and he and Turner manned the
Speaker 4: interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years.
Speaker 4: And so even though there are injury issues, there are
Speaker 4: new starters, Like this is not a typical patchworked unit
Speaker 4: that you would normally see with having new starters in there, Like,
Speaker 4: I think there's decent continuity there, and I think those
Speaker 4: guys will be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.
Speaker 4: Without Derek Barnett, the edge rusher, the Eagles defense is
Speaker 4: just number twenty seven in adjusted ZACH rate through two games.
Speaker 4: So I think there's a decent chance that they could
Speaker 4: actually keep Carson Wentz clean in the pocket. And you know,
Speaker 4: even though the Eagles they went out of their way
Speaker 4: seemingly this offseason to get better against the run. They
Speaker 4: drafted defensive tackle Jordan Davis, they added edge Hassan Reddick,
Speaker 4: linebacker Caaz You're White, they added him in free agency,
Speaker 4: and drafted to Kobe Dean right, they made these moves
Speaker 4: to try to get better in run defense, and yet
Speaker 4: they are still bottom five in run defense in every
Speaker 4: key metric. And so if Schweizer, Turner, and Norwal are
Speaker 4: able to hold their own against Cox and Hardgrave and
Speaker 4: run blocking, the Commanders could use the Russian game to
Speaker 4: extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles
Speaker 4: offense on the sidelines, and keep the game close. This
Speaker 4: line was minus one in the preseason market, minus three
Speaker 4: in the look ahead market.
Speaker 5: Last Thursday. It's six and a half, Like, what are
Speaker 5: we doing? This is a.
Speaker 4: Massive overreaction to the fact that the Eagles are two
Speaker 4: to zero and that they won twenty four to seven
Speaker 4: in Week two on Monday Night football.
Speaker 5: That's what this is. It is a massive overreaction.
Speaker 4: And if I lose money betting on this, I'm totally
Speaker 4: fine doing it, because this line never should have gotten
Speaker 4: to six and a half in the first place.
Speaker 1: Overreactions, Matt overreactions. I'm sorry, but after those Monday Night games,
Speaker 1: the whole world was here anointing. It is Eagles Philly
Speaker 1: Super Bowl?
Speaker 5: Are you kidding me?
Speaker 6: Jalen Hurt, MVP odds got cut in half. Everybody's ready
Speaker 6: to just crown him MVP. Listen, that game was just
Speaker 6: terrible all the way around. I wasn't that impressed with
Speaker 6: the Eagles.
Speaker 2: I was more just disgusted with the Viking secondary and well,
Speaker 2: frankly Kirk Cousins in primetime.
Speaker 3: What else is new?
Speaker 2: But I'm with you, it's either comeds or pass. I
Speaker 2: don't know if I have the stuff for it. Come Sunday,
Speaker 2: I may see. I don't think it's going to get
Speaker 2: to seven though. I think it's gonna sit here at
Speaker 2: six and a half because the bookmakers are gonna say,
Speaker 2: come on, guys, everybody walk up to the window and
Speaker 2: bet the Eagles, and unless some big time better comes
Speaker 2: in and bets the Commanders, which they might. You're right, Matt,
Speaker 2: there's some definite line value there. I just don't really
Speaker 2: know what Carson Wentz's identity is yet. And you mentioned
Speaker 2: that offensive line, and we've seen good Carson Wentz, and
Speaker 2: we've seen bad Carson Wentz, and we've yet to see
Speaker 2: good Carson Wentz here in Washington just yet. He had
Speaker 2: a couple of moments against the Panthers, I guess, but overall,
Speaker 2: this is not a team that I want to back
Speaker 2: with my hard earned dollars. If it's a bet, it's
Speaker 2: a pure numbers play, and I'm just not going to watch.
Speaker 1: John Murray is really hoping you're going to take that
Speaker 1: Washington line. I can tell you that I will say
Speaker 1: if it truly does end up coming to pass, and
Speaker 1: I would love for Jalen Hurst to win MVP. I
Speaker 1: have in all my fantasy teams, so I'm all board
Speaker 1: that train. But if it comes to pass that we
Speaker 1: get in Eagles Bill's super Bowl in Phoenix the same
Speaker 1: weekend as the waste management open City of Phoenix is
Speaker 1: burning into the ground that's not surviving by any stretch.
Speaker 1: But your next game up here is taking the other
Speaker 1: team from that Monday night match, Kelly, Minnesota, And I'm
Speaker 1: so glad that you have this one because I really
Speaker 1: wanted to ask about it. Minnesota right now is getting
Speaker 1: five and a half?
Speaker 5: Is that what we're still looking at here?
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty much five and a half on
Speaker 2: most of most of the world.
Speaker 3: I don't have my on screen open.
Speaker 4: I apologize, but yeah, I'm seeing five and a half
Speaker 4: and six.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and this to me, I'm of two minds.
Speaker 1: On the one hand, it's a massive overreaction of Monday
Speaker 1: night the Eagles blanketed Justin Jefferson. The Vikings played terrible.
Speaker 1: They're not going to do that every week. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, we did just see the Lions, this same
Speaker 1: Lions team they're going up against here back door the
Speaker 1: Eagles the week prior, and look a whole lot better
Speaker 1: against the same team. And I'm kind of loving the
Speaker 1: Lions what they've been doing so far this season. But
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I want to trust him
Speaker 1: in this spot or if it's a massive overreaction to
Speaker 1: Minnesota's Monday night performance. Which way are you going on
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, That's exactly where I'm going, I tweeted on.
Speaker 2: Monday, I'm like, God, I can't wait to lay it
Speaker 2: with the Viking this week.
Speaker 3: How gross? Of course?
Speaker 2: Why would you want to lay points with Kirk Cousins. Well,
Speaker 2: because it's a morning game, everybody relax. In theory, I'd
Speaker 2: like to see them be able to get down and
Speaker 2: look up and running early. Why, because that is how
Speaker 2: they can open up this offense. The Vikings historically have
Speaker 2: been great in the NFC North. That's why they were
Speaker 2: my pick to start the season. I know the Lions
Speaker 2: getting everybody so excited that back door cover Week one
Speaker 2: against the Eagles and starting off, you know, twenty two
Speaker 2: to nothing because the Commedis couldn't even get a first
Speaker 2: down until five minutes left in the first half of
Speaker 2: the game.
Speaker 3: Lions do better as the underdog.
Speaker 2: I will say that we've seen them be able to
Speaker 2: pull that off in the past, but I think that
Speaker 2: this Lion should be closer to eight eight and a half,
Speaker 2: and so at six, I'm getting a ton of line
Speaker 2: value here, and I do like this Minnesota team to be.
Speaker 3: Able to win the game.
Speaker 2: I would have Adam in a teaser when it originally
Speaker 2: was supposed to be seven and a half, which was
Speaker 2: a look aheadline. I would have just teased them down
Speaker 2: below a field goal. But at six and even five
Speaker 2: and a half, that is not a long teather, so
Speaker 2: I will not be doing that, but I did lay six.
Speaker 2: I don't like to see the market move again, but
Speaker 2: I know why and a lot of people love this
Speaker 2: Lions team. You watch Hard Knocks, you fall in love
Speaker 2: with Dan Campbell. I get that they love Dan too,
Speaker 2: but I'm not ready to give this Lions team the
Speaker 2: benefit of the doubt on the road their first road
Speaker 2: game this year, saying that they should be able to
Speaker 2: keep it close. I think the Vikings take out some
Speaker 2: frustration here. Let's hope that that defense can get some
Speaker 2: stops unlike Monday Night. Well, I should say that they
Speaker 2: got some stops for me in the second half. But
Speaker 2: they should be able to make some stops here.
Speaker 3: And that is going to be the.
Speaker 2: Difference maker between what we've seen from the Vikings versus
Speaker 2: the Vikings on the road.
Speaker 1: The Eagles, they were able to neutralize Justin Jefferson with
Speaker 1: the blanket coverage by Darius lay Matt. I don't feel
Speaker 1: like the Lions have the guy that can bottle them
Speaker 1: up like that?
Speaker 5: What say you, yeah?
Speaker 4: I will say I am on the other side of
Speaker 4: this and that I have value on the Lions. I
Speaker 4: have this line at five. But like I, I understand the
Speaker 4: biases of my numbers, and like I, I just know
Speaker 4: entering entering the season. You know, based on what I
Speaker 4: had in the preseason, I was higher than the market
Speaker 4: on the Lions and lower than the market on the Vikings,
Speaker 4: and so that's probably reflected in the numbers. I have now,
Speaker 4: and like I will, I will freely admit that that
Speaker 4: I'm just you know, taking a little bit of a
Speaker 4: stand uh with this number. Uh And you know, we'll
Speaker 4: we'll see. But the at least the market has moved
Speaker 4: towards where I have it projected, so I feel decent
Speaker 4: about that. But you know, divisional game, I don't feel
Speaker 4: all that great about this. If I had to bet it,
Speaker 4: I would be betting Detroit. But for me, this is
Speaker 4: a stay away.
Speaker 1: Great so not much clarity there as you guys are
Speaker 1: split on this one, and I'll have to still figure
Speaker 1: out what I want to do here. But Matt, your
Speaker 1: last game up here, in the last one we're gonna
Speaker 1: get to here today. The Chargers and the Jaguars. For me,
Speaker 1: it's all about the Justin Herbert injury. Is he going
Speaker 1: to be healthy enough.
Speaker 3: In this one?
Speaker 1: And also Jaguars has kind of been plucky and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, Trevor Lawrence is looking like a guy
Speaker 1: who's taking first. Overall, it's almost like Urban Meyer was
Speaker 1: the problem down there.
Speaker 5: Where are you going?
Speaker 3: Almost it's almost like almost.
Speaker 1: Not quite not ready to call it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with the Chargers, and I think I
Speaker 4: don't know. I think justin Herbert plays he's got three
Speaker 4: extra days coming off of Thursday night football to recover this.
Speaker 4: And this isn't like a super great trend, but I
Speaker 4: found it. So I'm just gonna say it. A team
Speaker 4: coming off of Thursday night, off of a Thursday night
Speaker 4: football road loss that is a home favorite twenty four,
Speaker 4: fifteen and one against the spread. And you know Doug
Speaker 4: Peterson on the road for his career fifteen and twenty
Speaker 4: five against the spread. So like something would say like
Speaker 4: that is a super strong trend, but like Doug Peterson
Speaker 4: on the road, he's never really been all that great.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 4: So I am I am on uh on the Chargers
Speaker 4: in this spot, and uh, I think it for me,
Speaker 4: it really comes down to Tobosa and Mac. I think
Speaker 4: they combined for multiple sacks in this game, and uh
Speaker 4: you know they are going. Let me see here if
Speaker 4: I can pull it up. I don't have my notes here,
Speaker 4: I got I got distracted at the very end one second. Sorry,
Speaker 4: totally unprofessional. Let me get to my article.
Speaker 3: We've all been there.
Speaker 2: But I will say this Chargers are a little scary, uh,
Speaker 2: just because that's the same team doctor that Tyron Taylor
Speaker 2: had because you guys, I have horrible fantasy luck, and
Speaker 2: I keep tweeting him, I keep talking about it that way,
Speaker 2: like it gets pushed away and like maybe I get
Speaker 2: some good blocks here. We're two and zero, and of
Speaker 2: course Justin Herbert goes down in Kansas City and I'm like, my.
Speaker 3: God, I knew it. I knew it.
Speaker 2: We're gonna We're gonna kill Justin Herbert because I have
Speaker 2: such a bad curse. So hopefully everything I'm hearing is
Speaker 2: a goo and Chargers is my is my survivor pick
Speaker 2: because historically Jackson Well cannot win on the road.
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, all right, coming back, I got it now.
Speaker 4: So this offseason, the Jaguars definitely took steps to fortify
Speaker 4: the interior of the offensive line. They drafted center Luke Fortner,
Speaker 4: They signed right guard Brandon Shurf.
Speaker 5: You know with those moves.
Speaker 4: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had a significant step forward in
Speaker 4: year over your improvement. But they still have left tackle,
Speaker 4: left tackle Kim Robinson, and right tackle Jawan Taylor as
Speaker 4: their offensive line bookings.
Speaker 5: And like those guys are average.
Speaker 4: And sure like average tackle play is good enough for
Speaker 4: a lot of teams in the league. They would love
Speaker 4: to have average tackle play, but that's not good enough
Speaker 4: against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading,
Speaker 4: the Charge nailed it. The Chargers defense is number seven
Speaker 4: with a nine point two adjusted sack rate, and in
Speaker 4: our Fantasy pros unut Power rankings, the Chargers defensive line
Speaker 4: has a massive edge, very massive edge against the Jaguars
Speaker 4: offensive line, And of course that's primarily because of Bosa
Speaker 4: and Mack, who already have six sacks combined this year.
Speaker 4: I think they combined for multiple sacks in this game.
Speaker 4: And you know, I think justin Herbert plays, he had
Speaker 4: limited practice on Wednesday, three extra days to recover, and I'm,
Speaker 4: you know, relying on the expertise of our in house expert,
Speaker 4: doctor Depak Chona, he thinks there's about a seventy percent
Speaker 4: chance that Herbert plays. I'm not going to argue with
Speaker 4: the doctor. I think it's probably higher than that, given
Speaker 4: just you know, like how gamer that this this kid is,
Speaker 4: and so I think if he plays, this line will
Speaker 4: move significantly higher once that is announced. In the preseason,
Speaker 4: this was ten in the look Ahead market before the
Speaker 4: Chiefs played. Well, sorry, before the Chargers played well against
Speaker 4: the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, this line was nine
Speaker 4: and now it's seven. Like sure, the Jags won twenty
Speaker 4: forty zero last week over the Colts. That was impressive,
Speaker 4: but not impressive enough to justify moving this line down
Speaker 4: to seven. So I think if Herbert plays, this line
Speaker 4: moves up to nine, maybe ten, and we get some
Speaker 4: closing line value there. With Herbert in, I have this
Speaker 4: projected for nine and a half, so I think that
Speaker 4: is where this should be.
Speaker 1: You want to talk about overreactions, I think that Jaguars
Speaker 1: Colts game was the biggest overreaction we could have even
Speaker 1: last year. It's not like they didn't do the exact
Speaker 1: same thing. I'm with you both here and Kelly, I
Speaker 1: love this as a Survivor pick. I was gonna ask
Speaker 1: that's my final question here is where are you guys
Speaker 1: going for any Survivor picks this week? I'm probably gonna
Speaker 1: be riding with you, but Matt, do you have a
Speaker 1: play for us for a survivor?
Speaker 4: No one should ever ask me for survivor advice, Like
Speaker 4: all of my teams have been like killed twice at
Speaker 4: this point, So whatever I say, just do the opposite
Speaker 4: of that, so I would say, yeah, Chargers like just
Speaker 4: eyeballing it. Yeah, Chargers, they got a tough go sorry
Speaker 4: schedule after this, you know, So this feels like a
Speaker 4: decent time to use them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean last week I had the Broncos.
Speaker 2: It can't get much worse. Like I said, the Jaguars
Speaker 2: just don't win on the road. And I got to
Speaker 2: hope that Herbert says healthy this has been a blood
Speaker 2: bath of a Survivor season and.
Speaker 3: We're only in week three.
Speaker 2: I actually have a double elimination this week in the
Speaker 2: big money league that I'm in for Survivor.
Speaker 3: So I'm taking Chargers and Vikings. I know it's chalky.
Speaker 2: Sometimes you got to look towards those short dogs, but
Speaker 2: this was probably one of the better spots that I had.
Speaker 3: To use the Vikings.
Speaker 2: I used Miami week one and got lucky enough to
Speaker 2: squeeze by. And as I mentioned, the Broncos last week
Speaker 2: was just disgusting, and I'm so glad I don't have
Speaker 2: to even watch another one of their games for at
Speaker 2: least another few weeks there. But yeah, I think those
Speaker 2: are the two best options you have. Other way, I
Speaker 2: start looking for some of those small home dogs, because
Speaker 2: there's gonna be another round of upsets.
Speaker 3: There's nine home dogs this week.
Speaker 2: If you want to lay some chalk with some of
Speaker 2: those teams on the road and just hope they get
Speaker 2: out with the way, God bless you, because I can't
Speaker 2: do it.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at one other team here. I have two selections.
Speaker 1: I'm absolutely taking the Charges in one. I kind of
Speaker 1: like Atlanta. I know they're on the road versus Seattle,
Speaker 1: but when am I going to use them again? And
Speaker 1: this Seattle team is bad against the run. I don't
Speaker 1: care what the stats say. I was able to see
Speaker 1: it with my own two wives. This team gets gashed
Speaker 1: in the run game, and the Falcons are plucky. Look
Speaker 1: at this resume for an zero to two team. You
Speaker 1: were hanging right in there with the Rams, and you
Speaker 1: were hanging right in there with the Saints. Marcus Mariota
Speaker 1: and Drake London have a good thing going here. This
Speaker 1: team's a little better than terrible. And I still don't
Speaker 1: believe in Gino Smith. I'm still writing him off. He
Speaker 1: doesn't have to write me back.
Speaker 2: I don't hate that I put the Falcons in a
Speaker 2: bunch of teasers this week, as I mentioned I've just
Speaker 2: been terrible, so don't quote me on that, but I
Speaker 2: did lines. Now come down, listen, the Falcons have got
Speaker 2: to learn how to win a game.
Speaker 3: That's the problem.
Speaker 2: They shot themselves in the foot a week one against
Speaker 2: the Saints, and then they came roaring back.
Speaker 3: Do you want to blame a little bit of rams
Speaker 3: defense there?
Speaker 2: Or maybe you mentioned maybe Arcus Mariota is definitely a
Speaker 2: step up from Matt Ryan. I don't hate that pick.
Speaker 2: That's ballsy. I don't know if I would do it,
Speaker 2: but I don't hate it. I think that you're right.
Speaker 2: I think Atlanta gets their first win in Seattle.
Speaker 1: That's why I have two picks. I can go back
Speaker 1: and forth with it. Matt, what do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can see it, you know, in my in
Speaker 4: my model, I take take points away for having, you know,
Speaker 4: consecutive road games for different things I have to do
Speaker 4: with travel, and you know, homefield advantage is a pretty
Speaker 4: significant thing for Seattle. But you know what if homefield
Speaker 4: doesn't mean what it used to for Seattle because their
Speaker 4: team isn't as good, and you have Atlanta having stayed
Speaker 4: on the West coast so they don't have to have
Speaker 4: the travel back east, travel back west, and so like
Speaker 4: that could shave like a point or maybe even more
Speaker 4: than that off of the projection that I have, so
Speaker 4: I can I can see it like I wish I
Speaker 4: would have bet on Atlanta earlier in the week.
Speaker 1: Well, that is going to do it for us here today, Kelly,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. Where can people
Speaker 1: find you in the fantastic work you're doing?
Speaker 2: Of course I'm all over the place right wager Talk
Speaker 2: dot Com do a lot of the stuff with them
Speaker 2: on YouTube. We have a show called bet on It,
Speaker 2: another show called The Hustle. We're going to hang out
Speaker 2: with my favorite every single Wednesday, and you know, talk
Speaker 2: about our group chat bets that we have every single week.
Speaker 3: And then of course Barstool Sportsbook.
Speaker 2: I do a show with Megan making money called money Shots,
Speaker 2: and we just have a great time. I guess I
Speaker 2: gotta be the sharp person on that show, only because
Speaker 2: Megan just obliterates me with some of her takes sometimes
Speaker 2: and is too.
Speaker 3: Witty for my own good.
Speaker 2: But lots of fun times this year, and I just
Speaker 2: got to find some winners because the last couple of
Speaker 2: weeks have not been good to me.
Speaker 1: Well, Hopefully we get some winners this weekend, but that's
Speaker 1: going to do it for us here, guys, for Kelly
Speaker 1: and Matt, I'm Tom saying good luck this weekend, and
Speaker 1: let's cash some tickets.
Speaker 5: All right, We're good,