1
00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:04,280
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

2
00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,880
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Fiola and joining us today here,

3
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:12,000
Speaker 1: of course, as always the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and

4
00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,200
Speaker 1: in our rotating third chair, coming at us to break

5
00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 1: down all of the Week three NFL action here none

6
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:23,240
Speaker 1: other than Kelly in Vegas herself, Kelly Stewart. How are

7
00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: you doing today, Kelly?

8
00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,319
Speaker 2: Life is good Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I don't leave

9
00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,800
Speaker 2: these four walls. So back to the Docto back shows.

10
00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:31,360
Speaker 2: I appreciate you guys having me on. This should be

11
00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:31,800
Speaker 2: pretty fun.

12
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,640
Speaker 1: We appreciate you taking the time. It's going to be

13
00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,959
Speaker 1: an exciting one. We were talking before we got on air.

14
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:37,200
Speaker 3: Here.

15
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,080
Speaker 1: It's a tough slate this week. There's a ton of

16
00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,639
Speaker 1: home dogs that are gonna be barking. Matt, what are

17
00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,519
Speaker 1: you thinking just over the slate in general? Were you

18
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,680
Speaker 1: finding it hard to pick out some games for this week?

19
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,319
Speaker 4: No, I mean, I will say, donkey that I am.

20
00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,160
Speaker 4: I looked at the board pretty quickly and identified games

21
00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,120
Speaker 4: that I liked, that my numbers liked, and I'm.

22
00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,560
Speaker 5: Just I'm still on those games like the look Ahead lines.

23
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,279
Speaker 4: I was like, okay, I like this game, and I'm

24
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:03,840
Speaker 4: still on a lot of those games.

25
00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:06,880
Speaker 1: Well, the first one that you're on here is the

26
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:12,040
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Ravens. Patriots getting three in Foxborough right now.

27
00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,360
Speaker 1: It's not often over the years that we've been able

28
00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 1: to say that, at least in my lifetime. Matt, are

29
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,440
Speaker 1: you riding with New England here? Are you taking the

30
00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:20,600
Speaker 1: visiting Ravens?

31
00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,200
Speaker 5: Yeah? I have to go with New England.

32
00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 4: And I feel like such a square doing this, But

33
00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,280
Speaker 4: you know, like Belichick as an underdog is thirty sixteen

34
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,320
Speaker 4: and two against the spread, and he's five to one

35
00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 4: and one against the spread versus John Harbaugh. Like it's

36
00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 4: not to say that like he has Harbaugh's number or

37
00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,679
Speaker 4: anything like that, but like, historically, I think he's just

38
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,920
Speaker 4: been able to out out maneuver and outthink Harbaugh.

39
00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 2: Uh.

40
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,120
Speaker 4: And I really like the matchup of this Patriots run

41
00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,040
Speaker 4: defense against the Ravens run offense. So even though the

42
00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,160
Speaker 4: Ravens are only number eleven this year in rush rate,

43
00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,440
Speaker 4: they are a running team at their core. Like that's

44
00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,760
Speaker 4: what happens when you have Lamar Jackson and Greg Roman.

45
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,960
Speaker 4: You know, Jackson's a ground attack cheat code and Greg

46
00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,280
Speaker 4: Roman is by trade a run game coordinator, and everything

47
00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 4: that they've done this offseason signaled that they wanted to

48
00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:09,959
Speaker 4: go into the running game, you know, getting raid of

49
00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,200
Speaker 4: number one wide receiver Markue's Brown and then replacing him

50
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,120
Speaker 4: not with you know, wide receivers that they got in

51
00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 4: the draft, but with two tight ends.

52
00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,359
Speaker 5: You know. But I think they could struggle to run

53
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:20,240
Speaker 5: the ball, you know. JK.

54
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 4: Dobbins, it's not certain that he's playing. Number two running

55
00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:24,359
Speaker 4: back Guess Edwards is out.

56
00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:25,520
Speaker 5: A left tackle.

57
00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,560
Speaker 4: Ronnie Stanley is yet to play this year, and their

58
00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 4: backup left tackle, Juwan James, he's out for the season

59
00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,720
Speaker 4: with an achilles injury. So you know, with those injuries,

60
00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,639
Speaker 4: the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground

61
00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 4: this year, you know, like bottom five and a lot

62
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,639
Speaker 4: of key efficiency rushing metrics. So I don't think it's

63
00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,920
Speaker 4: a good situation for them. And the Patriots defense has

64
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:45,960
Speaker 4: been a top five unit in yards per play, in

65
00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,720
Speaker 4: points game points per game through two games, so I

66
00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:54,480
Speaker 4: think it's it's a pretty even matchup, even skewed, I

67
00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,720
Speaker 4: would say in general towards the Patriots, and if the

68
00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,840
Speaker 4: Patriots can keep the Ravens and check on the ground.

69
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,400
Speaker 4: I think that forces them into a heavy reliance on

70
00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,600
Speaker 4: the passing game. And you know, while the Ravens have

71
00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,919
Speaker 4: had success in the air this year, like they're actually

72
00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,480
Speaker 4: number one in past DVOA, it's never a positive development

73
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,320
Speaker 4: to become one dimensional against a Bill Belichick defense. And

74
00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,960
Speaker 4: the Ravens have been really fortunate with their matchups to

75
00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,440
Speaker 4: open the year. They faced the bottom two teams in

76
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,120
Speaker 4: defensive pass EVOA, the Jets in Week one and the

77
00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,040
Speaker 4: Dolphins in Week two. So I'm skeptical that the Ravens

78
00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 4: pass offense actually is as good as it has recently looked.

79
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,000
Speaker 4: And if the run offense struggles in Week three, I

80
00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,560
Speaker 4: think they can have an underwhelming offensive performance overall. In

81
00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,880
Speaker 4: the preseason market, this was a pick them, right, I

82
00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,560
Speaker 4: don't think that much has changed from then to now,

83
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,120
Speaker 4: so I will be taking the Patriots plus three.

84
00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:42,960
Speaker 5: And a pick them.

85
00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 1: I want to be on the other side there with

86
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 1: the Ravens, but I hate laying points going into a

87
00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,240
Speaker 1: place like Foxborough. Kelly, what about you?

88
00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,200
Speaker 3: You know a wise man.

89
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:53,960
Speaker 2: I think it was Todd Furman back in the day

90
00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,119
Speaker 2: at Don Bess told me he goes you know what, kid,

91
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,560
Speaker 2: You're not going to get rich laying points on the road.

92
00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 2: And I'll be honest with you, I have always made

93
00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 2: it a habit since then not to lay points on

94
00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:05,920
Speaker 2: the road. So either I cross those games off or

95
00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,400
Speaker 2: I look towards the dog. I want to back the

96
00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,280
Speaker 2: dog here. I don't like that move from two and

97
00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,960
Speaker 2: a half to three. And I'm not sure who has

98
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 2: more money than me that decided that they really liked

99
00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,560
Speaker 2: the Ravens minus two and a half. Maybe they were

100
00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,120
Speaker 2: looking to get the public or some of those board

101
00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,839
Speaker 2: cleaners to push it to three. That does concern me.

102
00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,920
Speaker 2: As somebody who is a JK. Dobbins fantasy owner, I'd

103
00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 2: love to see him come back this weekend be able

104
00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 2: to run against his Patriots team. But I'm with Matt here.

105
00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,080
Speaker 2: I don't think the Ravens can get their running game going.

106
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,960
Speaker 2: Their secondary got absolutely obliterated last week. I laid three

107
00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,039
Speaker 2: and a half with the Ravens. You guys sit on

108
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,200
Speaker 2: the couch with Grandma. She's a big Saints fan. Saints

109
00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:43,040
Speaker 2: was my best bet.

110
00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:44,400
Speaker 3: No big deal.

111
00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 2: We've got the Lions game on the iPad, the side TV.

112
00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 2: We got another couple games on I thought I was

113
00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,840
Speaker 2: home free with that Ravens no sweat winner. Wrong, and

114
00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,520
Speaker 2: that's because that secondary gave up some really, really bad

115
00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:03,279
Speaker 2: like deep passes. Maybe they got a little lazy there,

116
00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:04,880
Speaker 2: but at some point in times you got to lock

117
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,000
Speaker 2: it up and you can't do that. On the flip side,

118
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,120
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that I really trust Mac Jones as

119
00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,520
Speaker 2: a game manager, and that concerns me. I do have

120
00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,680
Speaker 2: the Patriots under eight and a half wins this year,

121
00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,120
Speaker 2: and let me tell you, Ben, those underwins have not

122
00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,640
Speaker 2: been good for me. Historically. Bill Belichick finds ways to win.

123
00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,560
Speaker 2: Not mentioned his home underdog record, and I'll go as

124
00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,120
Speaker 2: far as to take the hot take to say he's

125
00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:27,040
Speaker 2: got Harbaugh's number.

126
00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:28,920
Speaker 3: We've seen it from time to time where.

127
00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:33,599
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick just does less with more and even this

128
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,480
Speaker 2: last couple of years without Tom Brady, and I would

129
00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,000
Speaker 2: say I have a slight lean with the three the.

130
00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:41,760
Speaker 3: Field goal out to the path. I'm not going to

131
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:42,799
Speaker 3: get involved in this game.

132
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,200
Speaker 1: If you want to win a sign Joe Mixon Cincinnati

133
00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,560
Speaker 1: Bengals jersey courtesy of our friends at Christine Auction, you

134
00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,600
Speaker 1: need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Right

135
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,880
Speaker 1: now comment below this video, and that is it. You

136
00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,000
Speaker 1: will automatically be entered. We will be announcing a winner

137
00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,400
Speaker 1: right here on the channel, So make sure to turn

138
00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,240
Speaker 1: on those notifications so you can be alerted when new

139
00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:08,360
Speaker 1: episodes are up and acclaim your prize. Now a game

140
00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:09,600
Speaker 1: that you are going to be getting involved with. You

141
00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,000
Speaker 1: don't want to lay points on the road, but you

142
00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,960
Speaker 1: we're getting a couple here with Green Bay versus Tampa.

143
00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 1: That line is moving quick though it's down to a

144
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,360
Speaker 1: pick them at most spots at this point. Does that

145
00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 1: scare you off? Are you still riding with the pack

146
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 1: in Tampa?

147
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:24,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm riding with the pack.

148
00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,280
Speaker 2: To tell your audience to bet the pack though it would.

149
00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,039
Speaker 3: Be a little disingenuous.

150
00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,680
Speaker 2: But the good friend of mine named John Murray, we

151
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,800
Speaker 2: used to do a podcast back to the day called Kelly,

152
00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:36,400
Speaker 2: and Murray.

153
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,520
Speaker 3: Said, don't worry Kelly, games never land one.

154
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,800
Speaker 2: Ever since then, it's been a really great joke because

155
00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:43,800
Speaker 2: games land one all the time, just not as much

156
00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,719
Speaker 2: as they land three. Okay, obviously games do land one,

157
00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,720
Speaker 2: just not at a very high rate. So we better

158
00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,440
Speaker 2: hope games don't land one here. But two and a

159
00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,839
Speaker 2: half to me difference with one pick them. I did

160
00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:57,480
Speaker 2: say that I liked Green Band the money line.

161
00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 3: This is gonna be a.

162
00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,440
Speaker 2: Really nice trophy for my shelf later because I got

163
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:02,640
Speaker 2: some good CLV there.

164
00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:04,240
Speaker 3: This is more of a play against the Bucks.

165
00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:05,960
Speaker 2: If you guys watch anything I did last week, I

166
00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,719
Speaker 2: said I am playing against the Bucks here. This is

167
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,400
Speaker 2: not a play on the Saints. I thought that Saints

168
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,480
Speaker 2: Stephens was gonna do really great and then guess what,

169
00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,800
Speaker 2: laddim Makers starts throwing haymakers, and Laddimore starts throwing haymakers

170
00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,080
Speaker 2: to Mike Evans and kind of just change the whole

171
00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,520
Speaker 2: dynamic of the game. Packers looked really great against the Bears,

172
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,800
Speaker 2: of course they did. But what I'm going to be

173
00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:29,000
Speaker 2: looking here for the keys for the Packers to win

174
00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,320
Speaker 2: this game is to do what we've seen them be

175
00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:33,440
Speaker 2: able to do offensively.

176
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 3: But I need that secondary to step up.

177
00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,920
Speaker 2: I don't think Tom Brady has the ability that he

178
00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:44,120
Speaker 2: once had. Now that may be a little disingenuous, but

179
00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,120
Speaker 2: not only does he have hurt receiving core, he has

180
00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:51,880
Speaker 2: no Mike Evans. At least the Thursday, what is it,

181
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:53,880
Speaker 2: four or five o'clock on the East coast. I haven't

182
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 2: heard anything about his appeal as of right now. We've

183
00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,720
Speaker 2: got Julio Jones injured, We've got kridad when it for

184
00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:02,840
Speaker 2: Nett is going to have to be able to.

185
00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:03,520
Speaker 3: Run the ball.

186
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,320
Speaker 2: But can you really run the ball against this Packers

187
00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 2: front seven. I don't know how I feel about it,

188
00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,640
Speaker 2: but this is Aaron Rodgers one of those games that

189
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:15,720
Speaker 2: he's gonna want to get back from a little bit

190
00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,840
Speaker 2: of revenge from two years ago to f C Championship game.

191
00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,000
Speaker 2: And I really think that this is a Packers team

192
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,640
Speaker 2: that has done well for me in the underdog position

193
00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,520
Speaker 2: on the road. We know that usually that doesn't happen,

194
00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 2: but they've covered seven of their last eleven and I'm

195
00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,160
Speaker 2: going to take them here on Sunday. As I mentioned,

196
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:37,240
Speaker 2: I may have a trophy in my pocket comes Sunday morning,

197
00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:38,440
Speaker 2: but I did my job.

198
00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:39,800
Speaker 3: I got the best of the number here with.

199
00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,880
Speaker 1: The pack If closing line value could pay the bills,

200
00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:46,240
Speaker 1: we would all be very rich right now. But you

201
00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,040
Speaker 1: know I was if Packers are passed for me too.

202
00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,400
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers wide receivers are so banged up that Cole

203
00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,440
Speaker 1: Beasley's on the practice squad. It might have to see

204
00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,320
Speaker 1: it say that's that's not good.

205
00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,400
Speaker 3: That's just wild to me. I didn't even know he

206
00:08:58,440 --> 00:08:59,319
Speaker 3: was still in the league.

207
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,240
Speaker 5: He was, he's been on the couch.

208
00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,160
Speaker 1: But about being able to run, you know, this is

209
00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,520
Speaker 1: gonna be a Leonard Fournette game. David Montgomery did have

210
00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,160
Speaker 1: some success, like if the Bears were moving the football,

211
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 1: it was because it was on the ground with Montgomery

212
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:14,959
Speaker 1: and Herbert Matt Do you think that they're gonna be

213
00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,840
Speaker 1: able to find that same success that the Bears did

214
00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,600
Speaker 1: or are you riding with the pack here? Yeah?

215
00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,000
Speaker 4: I mean, speaking of closing line value, I bet this

216
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:24,559
Speaker 4: on the look Ahead when it was three and a

217
00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,480
Speaker 4: half because that just felt so so egregious. And I

218
00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 4: have this now at one point twenty five, so I'm

219
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 4: right in line with the market. But honestly, I might

220
00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,280
Speaker 4: I might bump it down a little bit as we

221
00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,840
Speaker 4: get more practice reports or injury reports rather, you know,

222
00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:43,360
Speaker 4: with Julio Jones not practicing, left tackle, Donovan Smith not

223
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 4: certain to play backup left tackle, Josh Well's definitely out

224
00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,320
Speaker 4: for this game. Just a ton of uncertainty on the

225
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 4: offensive line and at wide receiver for Tom Brady. So

226
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:58,400
Speaker 4: I'm imagining, as I'm updating my power ratings and numbers

227
00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:02,240
Speaker 4: and you know, reviewing reports, I will knock this number down,

228
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,600
Speaker 4: probably not all the way to a pick them, but

229
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,080
Speaker 4: certainly closer to that than to the three that this

230
00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:08,760
Speaker 4: opened at.

231
00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,280
Speaker 1: Now. I know that you're not high on the Raiders

232
00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 1: from here in Vegas at all, and let's be frank,

233
00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 1: they've given you a lot of reason not to be

234
00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:18,959
Speaker 1: through two games here. But it's an zero to two

235
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,840
Speaker 1: battle as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans,

236
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:26,240
Speaker 1: who just got absolutely molly wopped on Monday Night football?

237
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,280
Speaker 1: Are you still going to take the Titans on the

238
00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,120
Speaker 1: short rest? Derek Henry has not looked like the king

239
00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:32,760
Speaker 1: we were promised so far this year.

240
00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:37,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, feeling very good about under on the Raiders for

241
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,280
Speaker 4: eight and a half with the win total. I don't

242
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,760
Speaker 4: feel as good about betting against them in the spot,

243
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,080
Speaker 4: but my number is telling me to do it, so

244
00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:45,840
Speaker 4: I'm doing it. And you look at some of the

245
00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,280
Speaker 4: historical trends here, Derek Carr, I mean, this guy as

246
00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:53,000
Speaker 4: a favorite has just massively underwhelmed throughout his career thirteen

247
00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,439
Speaker 4: twenty four and one against the spread as a favorite

248
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,800
Speaker 4: one seven to one against the spread as a favorite

249
00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,640
Speaker 4: versus a team that made the playoffs in the previous year.

250
00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:07,040
Speaker 4: So that record is just absolutely horrible. And Mike Rabel,

251
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,680
Speaker 4: you know, like a very particular type of coach, like

252
00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,160
Speaker 4: a raw, raw type of coach, not really a tactician,

253
00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,320
Speaker 4: but eighteen and twelve against the spread as an underdog,

254
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,960
Speaker 4: eight and four against the spread as a home underdog,

255
00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,480
Speaker 4: and when his team has had back to back losses

256
00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,480
Speaker 4: five to one to one against the spread. The matchup

257
00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 4: that really has my eye in this game is the

258
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 4: Titans pass rush against the Raiders pass blocking. Even without

259
00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,839
Speaker 4: edge Harold Landry who's out for the season with a

260
00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:35,480
Speaker 4: knee injury, the Titans defensive line I think has a

261
00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,400
Speaker 4: pretty marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line, at least

262
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,360
Speaker 4: looking in our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings. And you know,

263
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 4: specifically the Titans this year this year have excelled at

264
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,839
Speaker 4: rushing the quarterback. The Raiders have struggled, I think most

265
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,960
Speaker 4: in pass protection and center Andre James. He missed Week

266
00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,040
Speaker 4: two with a concussion. He hasn't returned to practice yet

267
00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,840
Speaker 4: as we're recording this. I think the right side of

268
00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:01,560
Speaker 4: that offensive line would be especial vulnerable if he's out,

269
00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,400
Speaker 4: so in his absence last week, rookie right guard Dylan

270
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,400
Speaker 4: parum He shifted to center, and then undrafted fourth year

271
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,880
Speaker 4: backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in

272
00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,240
Speaker 4: at right guard. I mean those two guys. Come on,

273
00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,000
Speaker 4: those two guys going against second team All Pro defensive

274
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,560
Speaker 4: tackle Jeffrey Simmons, who had eight and a half sacks

275
00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,360
Speaker 4: last year, like he could wreak havoc against those two.

276
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:24,640
Speaker 4: And then on the end of the line is right

277
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 4: right tackle Jermaine lu Manor. I don't know how to

278
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,280
Speaker 4: pronounce his last name. I'm just giving it an honest

279
00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:32,720
Speaker 4: shot here.

280
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,280
Speaker 3: The point is no one pretty good I would not

281
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:35,959
Speaker 3: do as well.

282
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,439
Speaker 4: No one should have to try to pronounce this guy's

283
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,559
Speaker 4: name because he shouldn't be starting. He's a journeyman backup

284
00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,400
Speaker 4: who has played most of his snaps at guard, and

285
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,280
Speaker 4: now somehow he's starting at right tackle. Like he will

286
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:51,160
Speaker 4: be outmatched by edges of Deniko Autrey and Bud Dupree,

287
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,800
Speaker 4: assuming dupre plays. Even if Dupree doesn't play, I don't

288
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,840
Speaker 4: think it really matters. So like that matchup of this

289
00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,520
Speaker 4: defensive line going against an offensive line that I don't

290
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,480
Speaker 4: think is enough to block them, means that Derek Carr

291
00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,320
Speaker 4: could have a significant amount of pressure coming his way

292
00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,080
Speaker 4: on the road for a lot of the game. This

293
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:13,280
Speaker 4: was Titans one point seventy five in the preseason market. Yeah,

294
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,480
Speaker 4: I just think there's value here the Titans. They're own too,

295
00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,160
Speaker 4: but so are the Raiders, So I will take the

296
00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,160
Speaker 4: Titans at two and a half.

297
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,160
Speaker 1: I'm worried about the tailor of a wand injury myself

298
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 1: that could make this really interesting when it comes to

299
00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,600
Speaker 1: the Titans' ability to block the pressure from the Raiders

300
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 1: front that admittedly has been a little lacklust to hear,

301
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 1: Chandler Jones is not an upgrade over Anakin Gotway, and

302
00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 1: the Raiders are finding that out right now, but they

303
00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 1: still have Max Crosby. I'm personally looking to the under

304
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 1: in that game. I think that this one could end

305
00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,120
Speaker 1: up being one of those games where neither offense really

306
00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,280
Speaker 1: gets off the ground and they just look ineffective. Kelly,

307
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,120
Speaker 1: any thoughts on this game before we shift over to

308
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:49,920
Speaker 1: your next pick here?

309
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:51,880
Speaker 2: You know, I think sometimes you got to look at

310
00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,080
Speaker 2: these a little situationally, right, Matt, I'm sure has an

311
00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,600
Speaker 2: amazing set of power ratings, and I've got some sharp

312
00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:58,360
Speaker 2: people that let.

313
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,560
Speaker 3: Me allow to be theirs.

314
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,679
Speaker 2: And I think sometimes when you're looking at the NFL's

315
00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,199
Speaker 2: look at what we saw last Matt mentioned the look

316
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,280
Speaker 2: ahead lines. Sometimes even those are really a great handicapping tool.

317
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 2: What the line should have been had that previous game

318
00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,920
Speaker 2: win a different direction? How the Titans not got blown

319
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:20,000
Speaker 2: out on Monday night football in an embarrassing passion on

320
00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 2: the road in Buffalo. This line should be Titans minus

321
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 2: one and a half Titans minus two.

322
00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:27,160
Speaker 3: Yet here we are.

323
00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,200
Speaker 2: And you also have to wonder, on the flip side,

324
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,080
Speaker 2: how good the Raiders really are that second half, particularly

325
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,160
Speaker 2: that late fourth quarter comeback by the Cardinals, who I

326
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,440
Speaker 2: don't think are particularly that great of a team either.

327
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,160
Speaker 2: Sometimes teams lose games twice. Now I understand these are professionals,

328
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,840
Speaker 2: these are not college kids. But we've seen it happen

329
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 2: before where you can't get that monkey off your back

330
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,800
Speaker 2: or don't rebound fast enough. This looks like a game

331
00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:52,760
Speaker 2: I don't want any part of. But I will tell

332
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,840
Speaker 2: you this. And while full disclosure teasers have been getting obliterated,

333
00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 2: my teasers have just been getting blown up.

334
00:14:59,160 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 3: I'm talking.

335
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,960
Speaker 2: I'm taking low total, so I'm doing getting over seven

336
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 2: excuse me over seven with seven and a half, eight

337
00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,760
Speaker 2: and a half, And it doesn't matter because some of

338
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:09,680
Speaker 2: these teams are so bad they can't even keep it

339
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 2: respectable at home.

340
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 3: That's right, I'm looking at you, Washington.

341
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,720
Speaker 2: That being said, there's a couple of spots I think

342
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,120
Speaker 2: are a good teaser played this weekend.

343
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 3: The Titans are one of them.

344
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,560
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that, But you're also looking at

345
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 1: a game that I kind of like on a six

346
00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: point teaser here Kansas City. The Chiefs head to Indy

347
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,360
Speaker 1: to take on the Colts. Man, you tie the Texans

348
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,560
Speaker 1: week one, you get obliterated by Jackson Jelle. That's never

349
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 1: something you want to hear in week two, and now

350
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 1: your home opener is against Kansas City. This isn't pretty

351
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,440
Speaker 1: for the Colts here, but can they keep this one close?

352
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,920
Speaker 2: The big questions is, obviously it is Thursday. We need

353
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 2: to see what's going on with Pittman and Leonard. But

354
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,560
Speaker 2: I will say this, Jonathan Taylor needs utilize still more.

355
00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 2: If the Colts run the ball with him, slow down

356
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:06,680
Speaker 2: and take thirteen seconds to just give Matt Ryan any time.

357
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:06,800
Speaker 3: Now.

358
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 2: I know Matt Ryan, if you look right now, is

359
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 2: just getting eaten alive on Twitter because he takes over

360
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 2: three seconds to release.

361
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,680
Speaker 3: But they've got to give the old man some time.

362
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 2: The Colts have been terrible as home underdogs, but they

363
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,760
Speaker 2: have covered five of their last six. Historically not been great,

364
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 2: but lately they've been Okay. This is the Chiefs team

365
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 2: that I don't think is could look any better right

366
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 2: Chiefs look amazing right now, and we know that historically

367
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 2: they haven't been for about the last two years covering spreads.

368
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,000
Speaker 3: Well now here they are coming back. And I thought

369
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 3: we were gonna get a seven.

370
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 2: When you asked me what I wanted to be on,

371
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,640
Speaker 2: I wanted to be all over the Colts plus seven.

372
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 1: I was ready.

373
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 2: I was sitting there at my odd screen open. I said,

374
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,720
Speaker 2: here we go. I'll get a seven, six and a half,

375
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,560
Speaker 2: six and a half. I do four hours of filming yesterday.

376
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 2: I log it, I'm like five and a half. Who

377
00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,120
Speaker 2: in the world bet then plus six and a half?

378
00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,400
Speaker 2: Why couldn't you guys just wait? And at five and

379
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 2: a half, I'm gonna be really honestly, that makes me

380
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 2: sick to my stomach to even contemplate taking the Colts.

381
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 2: I actually did not end up betting them. Sometimes it's

382
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 2: okay to pass sometimes to say, you know what, I

383
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 2: didn't get the number that I wanted, I'm going to pass.

384
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 2: But I will say the Colts are going to be

385
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,680
Speaker 2: an excellent play. And a lot of pick five contests

386
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 2: that I'm in, I'm even in a pick sep and

387
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 2: I've got six and a half in all of them

388
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 2: because those lines come.

389
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:24,399
Speaker 3: Out Monday and Tuesday.

390
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 2: So right now I have the ability to take a

391
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,960
Speaker 2: stale number and guess what, every Tom, Dick and Harry

392
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:30,480
Speaker 2: in those kinds they're still going to lay six and

393
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:30,840
Speaker 2: a half.

394
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 3: With the Chiefs, And so hopefully we can get in there.

395
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 2: Game might land six and I may get lucky to

396
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 2: win by the hook, but at five and a half, unfortunately,

397
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,400
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of this Colts team.

398
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,239
Speaker 2: Would I be surprised if the Colts went out right

399
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 2: on Sunday? Absolutely not. This is what this Colts team does.

400
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:50,360
Speaker 2: But having six quarterbacks over the last six seasons, they

401
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,640
Speaker 2: just don't have a lot of continuity, and that conurns

402
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 2: me here. I do think Frank Wright is a really

403
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 2: good coach, and I think he's getting a lot of

404
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,440
Speaker 2: grief right now. But he's on the hots and he's

405
00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 2: got to make moves here. One day, we'll see how

406
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 2: it ends up playing out. But unfortunately at five and

407
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 2: a half, I do have to pass.

408
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 1: One of my favorite sports betting anecdotes of all time

409
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:14,119
Speaker 1: from Vinnie Maulo with Gone Gaming. He said, the advantage

410
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 1: that the Better has over the book is the fact

411
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: that the book has to put up a number and

412
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,640
Speaker 1: take action on every single game. Yeah, Better can choose

413
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 1: which games they want to take, and that's the only

414
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 1: true advantage that you're getting there. Passing is a perfectly

415
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 1: reasonable thing to do. You don't have to take a

416
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 1: position on every game. But I will say if it

417
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,400
Speaker 1: does sway anybody's opinion here, Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman,

418
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 1: they both practiced yesterday. They said they're feeling good. They

419
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,159
Speaker 1: said it's still a game time decision if they're going

420
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 1: to be playing Matt. Is there any way that you're

421
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 1: factoring this in here?

422
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm imagining that this line will get even shorter

423
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 4: because I would bet that they both do play and yeah, Kelly,

424
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 4: I think absolutely spot on with the idea of taking

425
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 4: this in contest because that, yeah, that number six and

426
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 4: a half is there, and so we will be getting

427
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 4: some nice closing line value if this continues to move

428
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 4: down and I have it right around the market right now,

429
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 4: I have this at five point twenty five, and you know,

430
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 4: if we see those guys in the game, that line

431
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,359
Speaker 4: might move a little bit for me as well. So

432
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,679
Speaker 4: I'm not betting it at five and a half, but

433
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 4: six and a half in contest, I think is a

434
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 4: really sharp move.

435
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: And friend of the Show Captain Jack he pointed out

436
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,919
Speaker 1: when it comes to contest plays, when you know that

437
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 1: people are going to be laying with that six and

438
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 1: a half on the chiefs, if you can take the

439
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 1: other side in a game like that, if you come

440
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 1: out on top, that's like getting two wins instead of

441
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 1: one by being able to beat the public so much. Here, guys,

442
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

443
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 1: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

444
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 1: of players. You probably already have a Fantasy league on there.

445
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: My friends and I changed over this year and I

446
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 1: absolutely love it. It's a game changing product. Unlike anything

447
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 1: else in the industry, and now you can win on

448
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 1: Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple. First,

449
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 1: in any sport, choose two or more players that you

450
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: like and pick the over under for example rushing yards

451
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 1: in a football game or number of points in a

452
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 1: basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you want

453
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 1: to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you

454
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 1: can win anywhere from two times so over twenty times

455
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 1: the money you put in. The main reason I'm excited

456
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 1: about over under on Sleeper is that it's the only

457
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: app where I can join my friends contests and play together.

458
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: It's got a built in group chat where I can

459
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: see and copy my group's picks with the tap of

460
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 1: a button. Along with over under integrated into the fantasy

461
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: experience itself, it's insanely fun to ride it out together.

462
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 1: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to

463
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 1: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends

464
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 1: and make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros

465
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 1: when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and

466
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: Sleeper will automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to

467
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 1: get you started. In terms of conditions, apply see Sleeper

468
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: dot com for details. But Matt, your next game up

469
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 1: on the board, you are going with the Washington Commies,

470
00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 1: the Commanders six and a half again the Eagles here,

471
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 1: and I feel like Carson Wentz has been the least

472
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 1: talked about guy who's actually in the top three when

473
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: it comes to passing yards right now, up there with

474
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 1: elite names like Joe Flacco. It's a weird season through

475
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 1: two weeks, but you're on the Commanders here.

476
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel really disgusting doing this, Like I did

477
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 4: not want to be on on this game, and if

478
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 4: I was going to be on this game, I didn't

479
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 4: want to be on this side of it. But yeah,

480
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 4: you know, I think that there's significant value on the

481
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,640
Speaker 4: Commanders in this spot. Nick Sirianni for the Eagles one

482
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 4: four and one against the spread in division and divisional underdogs.

483
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 4: You know, this is the time of year. Divisional underdogs

484
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 4: in general, I think offer value, especially in the first

485
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 4: half of the year, but then really in the first

486
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 4: month of the season. Two hundred and five to one,

487
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 4: forty six to eleven against the spread divisional underdogs in

488
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 4: weeks one through four, and I think it's it's a

489
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 4: situation where the Commanders like, yes, we have the narrative

490
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 4: of like the revenge game and all of that. Maybe

491
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 4: that factors in a little bit, But really, this interior

492
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 4: offensive line for the Commanders, it looks like it's in shambles.

493
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 4: But I think it's actually a little bit better of

494
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: a situation than people might think. So, center Chase Rallier,

495
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 4: he's out for the year, as is his backup Tyler Larson,

496
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 4: and so that means that we are going to see

497
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 4: a right guard shift over to play tackle. And the

498
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 4: thing is this line is also missing its two starting

499
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 4: guards from last year, so year over year, they are

500
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 4: starting three new players in their interior and that exact

501
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 4: trio has never played together as a unit, and going

502
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 4: against defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, that looks

503
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 4: like a disaster waiting to happen. Even so, I think

504
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 4: the Commanders will will do well enough on the interior

505
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,360
Speaker 4: of their offensive line. So right guard Wesh White's who

506
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 4: is shifting over to center. He's made nineteen starts in

507
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 4: the interior for the Commanders since twenty twenty, so he

508
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 4: knows the system. Replacing him at right guard is backup

509
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 4: Trey Turner, who is a Pro bowler, five time Pro

510
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 4: bowler from Carolina, and so he knows the system as well.

511
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 4: And left guard Andrew Norwell, he's new to the team,

512
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 4: but he is another Panthers transplant who was an All

513
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,919
Speaker 4: Pro in twenty seventeen and he and Turner manned the

514
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 4: interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years.

515
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 4: And so even though there are injury issues, there are

516
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 4: new starters, Like this is not a typical patchworked unit

517
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 4: that you would normally see with having new starters in there, Like,

518
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 4: I think there's decent continuity there, and I think those

519
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 4: guys will be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.

520
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: Without Derek Barnett, the edge rusher, the Eagles defense is

521
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 4: just number twenty seven in adjusted ZACH rate through two games.

522
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 4: So I think there's a decent chance that they could

523
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 4: actually keep Carson Wentz clean in the pocket. And you know,

524
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 4: even though the Eagles they went out of their way

525
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 4: seemingly this offseason to get better against the run. They

526
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 4: drafted defensive tackle Jordan Davis, they added edge Hassan Reddick,

527
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 4: linebacker Caaz You're White, they added him in free agency,

528
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 4: and drafted to Kobe Dean right, they made these moves

529
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 4: to try to get better in run defense, and yet

530
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 4: they are still bottom five in run defense in every

531
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 4: key metric. And so if Schweizer, Turner, and Norwal are

532
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 4: able to hold their own against Cox and Hardgrave and

533
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 4: run blocking, the Commanders could use the Russian game to

534
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 4: extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles

535
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 4: offense on the sidelines, and keep the game close. This

536
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 4: line was minus one in the preseason market, minus three

537
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 4: in the look ahead market.

538
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,479
Speaker 5: Last Thursday. It's six and a half, Like, what are

539
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 5: we doing? This is a.

540
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 4: Massive overreaction to the fact that the Eagles are two

541
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 4: to zero and that they won twenty four to seven

542
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 4: in Week two on Monday Night football.

543
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 5: That's what this is. It is a massive overreaction.

544
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 4: And if I lose money betting on this, I'm totally

545
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 4: fine doing it, because this line never should have gotten

546
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 4: to six and a half in the first place.

547
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 1: Overreactions, Matt overreactions. I'm sorry, but after those Monday Night games,

548
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 1: the whole world was here anointing. It is Eagles Philly

549
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: Super Bowl?

550
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 5: Are you kidding me?

551
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 6: Jalen Hurt, MVP odds got cut in half. Everybody's ready

552
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 6: to just crown him MVP. Listen, that game was just

553
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 6: terrible all the way around. I wasn't that impressed with

554
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 6: the Eagles.

555
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: I was more just disgusted with the Viking secondary and well,

556
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 2: frankly Kirk Cousins in primetime.

557
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 3: What else is new?

558
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 2: But I'm with you, it's either comeds or pass. I

559
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 2: don't know if I have the stuff for it. Come Sunday,

560
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 2: I may see. I don't think it's going to get

561
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 2: to seven though. I think it's gonna sit here at

562
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: six and a half because the bookmakers are gonna say,

563
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 2: come on, guys, everybody walk up to the window and

564
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: bet the Eagles, and unless some big time better comes

565
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: in and bets the Commanders, which they might. You're right, Matt,

566
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 2: there's some definite line value there. I just don't really

567
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 2: know what Carson Wentz's identity is yet. And you mentioned

568
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 2: that offensive line, and we've seen good Carson Wentz, and

569
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 2: we've seen bad Carson Wentz, and we've yet to see

570
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: good Carson Wentz here in Washington just yet. He had

571
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 2: a couple of moments against the Panthers, I guess, but overall,

572
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 2: this is not a team that I want to back

573
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 2: with my hard earned dollars. If it's a bet, it's

574
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: a pure numbers play, and I'm just not going to watch.

575
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 1: John Murray is really hoping you're going to take that

576
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: Washington line. I can tell you that I will say

577
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: if it truly does end up coming to pass, and

578
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: I would love for Jalen Hurst to win MVP. I

579
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 1: have in all my fantasy teams, so I'm all board

580
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: that train. But if it comes to pass that we

581
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 1: get in Eagles Bill's super Bowl in Phoenix the same

582
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 1: weekend as the waste management open City of Phoenix is

583
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: burning into the ground that's not surviving by any stretch.

584
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: But your next game up here is taking the other

585
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 1: team from that Monday night match, Kelly, Minnesota, And I'm

586
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: so glad that you have this one because I really

587
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: wanted to ask about it. Minnesota right now is getting

588
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: five and a half?

589
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,120
Speaker 5: Is that what we're still looking at here?

590
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty much five and a half on

591
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 2: most of most of the world.

592
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 3: I don't have my on screen open.

593
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 4: I apologize, but yeah, I'm seeing five and a half

594
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 4: and six.

595
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, and this to me, I'm of two minds.

596
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: On the one hand, it's a massive overreaction of Monday

597
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: night the Eagles blanketed Justin Jefferson. The Vikings played terrible.

598
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: They're not going to do that every week. On the

599
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 1: other hand, we did just see the Lions, this same

600
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: Lions team they're going up against here back door the

601
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 1: Eagles the week prior, and look a whole lot better

602
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 1: against the same team. And I'm kind of loving the

603
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: Lions what they've been doing so far this season. But

604
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I want to trust him

605
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: in this spot or if it's a massive overreaction to

606
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: Minnesota's Monday night performance. Which way are you going on

607
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: this one?

608
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, That's exactly where I'm going, I tweeted on.

609
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 2: Monday, I'm like, God, I can't wait to lay it

610
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 2: with the Viking this week.

611
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 3: How gross? Of course?

612
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: Why would you want to lay points with Kirk Cousins. Well,

613
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: because it's a morning game, everybody relax. In theory, I'd

614
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: like to see them be able to get down and

615
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 2: look up and running early. Why, because that is how

616
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 2: they can open up this offense. The Vikings historically have

617
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 2: been great in the NFC North. That's why they were

618
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 2: my pick to start the season. I know the Lions

619
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 2: getting everybody so excited that back door cover Week one

620
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 2: against the Eagles and starting off, you know, twenty two

621
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 2: to nothing because the Commedis couldn't even get a first

622
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: down until five minutes left in the first half of

623
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 2: the game.

624
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: Lions do better as the underdog.

625
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 2: I will say that we've seen them be able to

626
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 2: pull that off in the past, but I think that

627
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: this Lion should be closer to eight eight and a half,

628
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: and so at six, I'm getting a ton of line

629
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 2: value here, and I do like this Minnesota team to be.

630
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 3: Able to win the game.

631
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 2: I would have Adam in a teaser when it originally

632
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: was supposed to be seven and a half, which was

633
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 2: a look aheadline. I would have just teased them down

634
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 2: below a field goal. But at six and even five

635
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: and a half, that is not a long teather, so

636
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 2: I will not be doing that, but I did lay six.

637
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: I don't like to see the market move again, but

638
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 2: I know why and a lot of people love this

639
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: Lions team. You watch Hard Knocks, you fall in love

640
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 2: with Dan Campbell. I get that they love Dan too,

641
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 2: but I'm not ready to give this Lions team the

642
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: benefit of the doubt on the road their first road

643
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: game this year, saying that they should be able to

644
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 2: keep it close. I think the Vikings take out some

645
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: frustration here. Let's hope that that defense can get some

646
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: stops unlike Monday Night. Well, I should say that they

647
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 2: got some stops for me in the second half. But

648
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 2: they should be able to make some stops here.

649
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: And that is going to be the.

650
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: Difference maker between what we've seen from the Vikings versus

651
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: the Vikings on the road.

652
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: The Eagles, they were able to neutralize Justin Jefferson with

653
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: the blanket coverage by Darius lay Matt. I don't feel

654
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: like the Lions have the guy that can bottle them

655
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: up like that?

656
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 5: What say you, yeah?

657
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 4: I will say I am on the other side of

658
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 4: this and that I have value on the Lions. I

659
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 4: have this line at five. But like I, I understand the

660
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 4: biases of my numbers, and like I, I just know

661
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 4: entering entering the season. You know, based on what I

662
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 4: had in the preseason, I was higher than the market

663
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 4: on the Lions and lower than the market on the Vikings,

664
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 4: and so that's probably reflected in the numbers. I have now,

665
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 4: and like I will, I will freely admit that that

666
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 4: I'm just you know, taking a little bit of a

667
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 4: stand uh with this number. Uh And you know, we'll

668
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 4: we'll see. But the at least the market has moved

669
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 4: towards where I have it projected, so I feel decent

670
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 4: about that. But you know, divisional game, I don't feel

671
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 4: all that great about this. If I had to bet it,

672
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 4: I would be betting Detroit. But for me, this is

673
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 4: a stay away.

674
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: Great so not much clarity there as you guys are

675
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: split on this one, and I'll have to still figure

676
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: out what I want to do here. But Matt, your

677
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: last game up here, in the last one we're gonna

678
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: get to here today. The Chargers and the Jaguars. For me,

679
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 1: it's all about the Justin Herbert injury. Is he going

680
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: to be healthy enough.

681
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 3: In this one?

682
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,479
Speaker 1: And also Jaguars has kind of been plucky and all

683
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: of a sudden, Trevor Lawrence is looking like a guy

684
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: who's taking first. Overall, it's almost like Urban Meyer was

685
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 1: the problem down there.

686
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 5: Where are you going?

687
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: Almost it's almost like almost.

688
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: Not quite not ready to call it.

689
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with the Chargers, and I think I

690
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 4: don't know. I think justin Herbert plays he's got three

691
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 4: extra days coming off of Thursday night football to recover this.

692
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 4: And this isn't like a super great trend, but I

693
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 4: found it. So I'm just gonna say it. A team

694
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 4: coming off of Thursday night, off of a Thursday night

695
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 4: football road loss that is a home favorite twenty four,

696
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 4: fifteen and one against the spread. And you know Doug

697
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 4: Peterson on the road for his career fifteen and twenty

698
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 4: five against the spread. So like something would say like

699
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 4: that is a super strong trend, but like Doug Peterson

700
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 4: on the road, he's never really been all that great.

701
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 5: Uh.

702
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 4: So I am I am on uh on the Chargers

703
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 4: in this spot, and uh, I think it for me,

704
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 4: it really comes down to Tobosa and Mac. I think

705
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 4: they combined for multiple sacks in this game, and uh

706
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 4: you know they are going. Let me see here if

707
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 4: I can pull it up. I don't have my notes here,

708
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 4: I got I got distracted at the very end one second. Sorry,

709
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 4: totally unprofessional. Let me get to my article.

710
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 3: We've all been there.

711
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: But I will say this Chargers are a little scary, uh,

712
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 2: just because that's the same team doctor that Tyron Taylor

713
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: had because you guys, I have horrible fantasy luck, and

714
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 2: I keep tweeting him, I keep talking about it that way,

715
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: like it gets pushed away and like maybe I get

716
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 2: some good blocks here. We're two and zero, and of

717
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: course Justin Herbert goes down in Kansas City and I'm like, my.

718
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 3: God, I knew it. I knew it.

719
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: We're gonna We're gonna kill Justin Herbert because I have

720
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: such a bad curse. So hopefully everything I'm hearing is

721
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 2: a goo and Chargers is my is my survivor pick

722
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 2: because historically Jackson Well cannot win on the road.

723
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, all right, coming back, I got it now.

724
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 4: So this offseason, the Jaguars definitely took steps to fortify

725
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 4: the interior of the offensive line. They drafted center Luke Fortner,

726
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 4: They signed right guard Brandon Shurf.

727
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 5: You know with those moves.

728
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 4: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had a significant step forward in

729
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 4: year over your improvement. But they still have left tackle,

730
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 4: left tackle Kim Robinson, and right tackle Jawan Taylor as

731
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 4: their offensive line bookings.

732
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 5: And like those guys are average.

733
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 4: And sure like average tackle play is good enough for

734
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 4: a lot of teams in the league. They would love

735
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 4: to have average tackle play, but that's not good enough

736
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 4: against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading,

737
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 4: the Charge nailed it. The Chargers defense is number seven

738
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,239
Speaker 4: with a nine point two adjusted sack rate, and in

739
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 4: our Fantasy pros unut Power rankings, the Chargers defensive line

740
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 4: has a massive edge, very massive edge against the Jaguars

741
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 4: offensive line, And of course that's primarily because of Bosa

742
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,879
Speaker 4: and Mack, who already have six sacks combined this year.

743
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 4: I think they combined for multiple sacks in this game.

744
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 4: And you know, I think justin Herbert plays, he had

745
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 4: limited practice on Wednesday, three extra days to recover, and I'm,

746
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 4: you know, relying on the expertise of our in house expert,

747
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 4: doctor Depak Chona, he thinks there's about a seventy percent

748
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 4: chance that Herbert plays. I'm not going to argue with

749
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 4: the doctor. I think it's probably higher than that, given

750
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 4: just you know, like how gamer that this this kid is,

751
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,439
Speaker 4: and so I think if he plays, this line will

752
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 4: move significantly higher once that is announced. In the preseason,

753
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 4: this was ten in the look Ahead market before the

754
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 4: Chiefs played. Well, sorry, before the Chargers played well against

755
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 4: the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, this line was nine

756
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 4: and now it's seven. Like sure, the Jags won twenty

757
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 4: forty zero last week over the Colts. That was impressive,

758
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 4: but not impressive enough to justify moving this line down

759
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 4: to seven. So I think if Herbert plays, this line

760
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 4: moves up to nine, maybe ten, and we get some

761
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 4: closing line value there. With Herbert in, I have this

762
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 4: projected for nine and a half, so I think that

763
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 4: is where this should be.

764
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: You want to talk about overreactions, I think that Jaguars

765
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: Colts game was the biggest overreaction we could have even

766
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 1: last year. It's not like they didn't do the exact

767
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 1: same thing. I'm with you both here and Kelly, I

768
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: love this as a Survivor pick. I was gonna ask

769
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: that's my final question here is where are you guys

770
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: going for any Survivor picks this week? I'm probably gonna

771
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: be riding with you, but Matt, do you have a

772
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: play for us for a survivor?

773
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 4: No one should ever ask me for survivor advice, Like

774
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 4: all of my teams have been like killed twice at

775
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 4: this point, So whatever I say, just do the opposite

776
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 4: of that, so I would say, yeah, Chargers like just

777
00:35:55,280 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: eyeballing it. Yeah, Chargers, they got a tough go sorry

778
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 4: schedule after this, you know, So this feels like a

779
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 4: decent time to use them.

780
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean last week I had the Broncos.

781
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 2: It can't get much worse. Like I said, the Jaguars

782
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 2: just don't win on the road. And I got to

783
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: hope that Herbert says healthy this has been a blood

784
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: bath of a Survivor season and.

785
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 3: We're only in week three.

786
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 2: I actually have a double elimination this week in the

787
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: big money league that I'm in for Survivor.

788
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: So I'm taking Chargers and Vikings. I know it's chalky.

789
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: Sometimes you got to look towards those short dogs, but

790
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 2: this was probably one of the better spots that I had.

791
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 3: To use the Vikings.

792
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 2: I used Miami week one and got lucky enough to

793
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 2: squeeze by. And as I mentioned, the Broncos last week

794
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 2: was just disgusting, and I'm so glad I don't have

795
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: to even watch another one of their games for at

796
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: least another few weeks there. But yeah, I think those

797
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: are the two best options you have. Other way, I

798
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 2: start looking for some of those small home dogs, because

799
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 2: there's gonna be another round of upsets.

800
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 3: There's nine home dogs this week.

801
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 2: If you want to lay some chalk with some of

802
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 2: those teams on the road and just hope they get

803
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: out with the way, God bless you, because I can't

804
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 2: do it.

805
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: I'm looking at one other team here. I have two selections.

806
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 1: I'm absolutely taking the Charges in one. I kind of

807
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: like Atlanta. I know they're on the road versus Seattle,

808
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 1: but when am I going to use them again? And

809
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: this Seattle team is bad against the run. I don't

810
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: care what the stats say. I was able to see

811
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 1: it with my own two wives. This team gets gashed

812
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 1: in the run game, and the Falcons are plucky. Look

813
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 1: at this resume for an zero to two team. You

814
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 1: were hanging right in there with the Rams, and you

815
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,280
Speaker 1: were hanging right in there with the Saints. Marcus Mariota

816
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 1: and Drake London have a good thing going here. This

817
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 1: team's a little better than terrible. And I still don't

818
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 1: believe in Gino Smith. I'm still writing him off. He

819
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 1: doesn't have to write me back.

820
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: I don't hate that I put the Falcons in a

821
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 2: bunch of teasers this week, as I mentioned I've just

822
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: been terrible, so don't quote me on that, but I

823
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 2: did lines. Now come down, listen, the Falcons have got

824
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 2: to learn how to win a game.

825
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 3: That's the problem.

826
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 2: They shot themselves in the foot a week one against

827
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: the Saints, and then they came roaring back.

828
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 3: Do you want to blame a little bit of rams

829
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 3: defense there?

830
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: Or maybe you mentioned maybe Arcus Mariota is definitely a

831
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 2: step up from Matt Ryan. I don't hate that pick.

832
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 2: That's ballsy. I don't know if I would do it,

833
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: but I don't hate it. I think that you're right.

834
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 2: I think Atlanta gets their first win in Seattle.

835
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 1: That's why I have two picks. I can go back

836
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 1: and forth with it. Matt, what do you think?

837
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can see it, you know, in my in

838
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 4: my model, I take take points away for having, you know,

839
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: consecutive road games for different things I have to do

840
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 4: with travel, and you know, homefield advantage is a pretty

841
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 4: significant thing for Seattle. But you know what if homefield

842
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 4: doesn't mean what it used to for Seattle because their

843
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 4: team isn't as good, and you have Atlanta having stayed

844
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 4: on the West coast so they don't have to have

845
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 4: the travel back east, travel back west, and so like

846
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 4: that could shave like a point or maybe even more

847
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 4: than that off of the projection that I have, so

848
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 4: I can I can see it like I wish I

849
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 4: would have bet on Atlanta earlier in the week.

850
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: Well, that is going to do it for us here today, Kelly,

851
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. Where can people

852
00:38:57,880 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: find you in the fantastic work you're doing?

853
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: Of course I'm all over the place right wager Talk

854
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 2: dot Com do a lot of the stuff with them

855
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: on YouTube. We have a show called bet on It,

856
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: another show called The Hustle. We're going to hang out

857
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: with my favorite every single Wednesday, and you know, talk

858
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: about our group chat bets that we have every single week.

859
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 3: And then of course Barstool Sportsbook.

860
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 2: I do a show with Megan making money called money Shots,

861
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 2: and we just have a great time. I guess I

862
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,240
Speaker 2: gotta be the sharp person on that show, only because

863
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 2: Megan just obliterates me with some of her takes sometimes

864
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,400
Speaker 2: and is too.

865
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 3: Witty for my own good.

866
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 2: But lots of fun times this year, and I just

867
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 2: got to find some winners because the last couple of

868
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 2: weeks have not been good to me.

869
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: Well, Hopefully we get some winners this weekend, but that's

870
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: going to do it for us here, guys, for Kelly

871
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 1: and Matt, I'm Tom saying good luck this weekend, and

872
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 1: let's cash some tickets.

873
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 5: All right, We're good,