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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Wednesday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrault. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt. And we've opened the week with back

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Speaker 2: to back winning two and one nights. We get the

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Speaker 2: two and one last night thanks to both NBA Cup

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Speaker 2: games coming in for us, the under for the heat

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Speaker 2: and the magic that comes in in the Knicks take

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Speaker 2: care of business easily on the road against Toronto, Vegas

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Speaker 2: lost the game outright in a shootout to the Islanders.

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Speaker 2: They did tie the game at four with about twenty

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Speaker 2: seconds to go, so the game does go to a tie.

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Speaker 2: So some of you guys were packing the tie at

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Speaker 2: plus three point fifty there, so you got that beat

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Speaker 2: to cash, but I did not, so I lost that

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Speaker 2: only one unit though, so it's a plus money play

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Speaker 2: on the Golden Knights in regulation. So two and one night,

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Speaker 2: up one unit for us, So up one point nine

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Speaker 2: units for the week so far. As we continue here

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Speaker 2: in the month of December, we've had a good December.

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Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling here.

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Speaker 2: Coming up for today, Now, I got three bets for

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Speaker 2: tonight all NBA plays and the hard rock bet of

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Speaker 2: the Day is for tomorrow for Thursday night, so I'll

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Speaker 2: give that to you today. That bet is for tomorrow

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Speaker 2: for our hard rock bet of the Day, so stay

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Speaker 2: tuned for that. If you are looking for NBA player props, however,

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Speaker 2: because I know you guys have been asking a lot, Matt,

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Speaker 2: you haven't been doing them any NBA player props. That's true,

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Speaker 2: I haven't, But you can do it yourself if you want.

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Speaker 2: It's all available on the prop bet cheat sheet. If

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Speaker 2: you want to go and check it out. You can

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Speaker 2: crush your NBA bets with the prop bet cheat sheet

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Speaker 2: for the NBA. We've done really well with this historically speaking,

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Speaker 2: hitting about sixty percent of the time. You've got top

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Speaker 2: player picks based on projections in sportsbook lines. It's updated

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Speaker 2: daily with recommended bets for points, rebounds, assists, in more,

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Speaker 2: and the five star prop bets have a fifty four

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Speaker 2: percent win rate and are now up over one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty five units in twenty twenty five. Go to

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Speaker 2: Bettingpros dot com slash NBA props or download the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros app to start cashing in. That's bettingpros dot Com

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Speaker 2: slash NBA Props. Let's start with OKC and their game

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Speaker 2: at home against the Phoenix Suns. Here, this is the

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Speaker 2: other side of the knockout round for the NBA Cup.

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Speaker 2: Winner goes to Vegas for Saturday for the semifinal and

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Speaker 2: the final on Monday. So the Knicks are coming to Vegas,

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Speaker 2: which is cool, and the Knicks will face off against

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Speaker 2: the Orlando Magic. It's a good matchup. So what will

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Speaker 2: be the other side? Well, Okasee is a fourteen and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorite. It opened at fifteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: It's now fourteen and a half, so no one's going

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Speaker 2: near that except taking the points with the Suns. But

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Speaker 2: given how often Okasee has blown out teams this season,

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Speaker 2: it's a little bit difficult to lay or take that number.

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Speaker 1: So let's look at the total.

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Speaker 2: This comes from Matt Moore at the on the Action Network,

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Speaker 2: who is a guy who I've known for quite a

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Speaker 2: long time. They've uncovered he's uncovered that the unders in

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Speaker 2: knockout round games. This is only like year two, right,

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Speaker 2: but so far in the quarterfinal knockout rounds, the under

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Speaker 2: is ten and three in this game and now it's yeah.

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Speaker 2: I guess now you'd say it's uh, it might be

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Speaker 2: twelve and three after last night. Both games went under

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Speaker 2: last night. So here we are with a number that

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Speaker 2: looks a little bit easy to take. The over between

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Speaker 2: OKAC and Phoenix. The number is to twenty five and

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Speaker 2: a half. These teams played a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: and you might go, well, Matt, hold on a second.

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Speaker 2: When these guys played, it's kind of a similar bet

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Speaker 2: you made last night because the numbers, well, look at

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Speaker 2: the totals, right. The Knicks took care of business against Toronto.

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Speaker 1: They did again.

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Speaker 2: The under for the Magic and the heat came in

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Speaker 2: by thirty points. Didn't go in by thirty points last night,

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Speaker 2: but the under came in again.

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Speaker 1: Well, the over hit When these two.

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Speaker 2: Teams played back on the twenty eighth of November in OKC,

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Speaker 2: the total was two twenty three and a half and

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Speaker 2: the game went over by eighteen and a half points. However,

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Speaker 2: in knockout round games, I understand why the under is

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Speaker 2: coming in consistently because these teams are playing defense.

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Speaker 1: These teams are playing it.

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Speaker 2: It's not a playoff game, but they're giving you maximum

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Speaker 2: effort and the rotations are different. The star players are

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Speaker 2: playing longer, the teams want to win. You weren't seeing

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Speaker 2: the same, like pull up rotation and be like, eh,

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Speaker 2: it's a regular seas season game in December.

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Speaker 1: I don't care. This matters.

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Speaker 2: Ok See is the number one defensive team in the NBA,

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Speaker 2: giving up just one oh six point nine points per game.

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Speaker 2: But Phoenix isn't that bad either. Phoenix is eighth in

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Speaker 2: the NBA in points given up per game at one

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Speaker 2: thirteen and a half. And you look at Okase's offense

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Speaker 2: one twenty three. I mean, they crush people. But if

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Speaker 2: Phoenix can hold them down to one hundred and five

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Speaker 2: one hundred and ten points, I'm not sure how many

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Speaker 2: points Phoenix wants up scoring. I mean, okay see one

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Speaker 2: oh six point nine. Again, this is the number one

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Speaker 2: defense in the NBA. Their average scoring margin of sixteen

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Speaker 2: point two is number one.

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Speaker 1: In the NBA.

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Speaker 2: They're opposing fast break points per game given up is

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Speaker 2: only ten point six. That's number one in the NBA.

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Speaker 2: Points in the paint given up thirty eight point eight,

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Speaker 2: that's number one in the NBA. Opposing assists turnover ratio

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Speaker 2: is one point three, that is number one in the NBA.

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Speaker 2: I mean twenty three point nine assists per game. That's

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Speaker 2: number two in the NBA. This is the best defensive

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Speaker 2: team in the NBA. In a game that I think

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Speaker 2: these young kids care coming to Vegas matters, I don't

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Speaker 2: want to lay fourteen and a half points. I just

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Speaker 2: don't think Phoenix scores will go ahead and come in

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Speaker 2: with the under under two twenty five and a half

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Speaker 2: for OKC and Phoenix for one point one units. Now,

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Speaker 2: I got two bets on the second game. And while

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Speaker 2: I just said all that about the under, and I

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Speaker 2: talked about all this under all the under, under under, right,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet the over in the late game. And

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Speaker 2: the reason is the Lakers are on a hell of

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Speaker 2: a run right now to the over. They are ten

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Speaker 2: to oher to the over at home this season, the

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Speaker 2: Lakers are twelve and four to the over against the

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Speaker 2: Western Conference, and the Spurs are eight and four to

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Speaker 2: the over and without when Biyama. They are running and

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Speaker 2: they are scoring. The game against Orlando went under, but

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Speaker 2: that would be the only game of the last six

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Speaker 2: that went under for this San Antonio Spurs, and they're

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Speaker 2: going over by a pretty good clip twenty eight and

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Speaker 2: a half, seven and a half, thirteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: three point five is an anomaly, and then thirty six

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Speaker 2: and a half the game's going over the total. The

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Speaker 2: total for this game is set at two thirty seven

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Speaker 2: and a half or to thirty seven, depending on the book.

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Speaker 2: San Antonio I think will be able to score. The

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Speaker 2: Lakers with Lebron on the court, they are not good defensively.

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Speaker 2: In fact, you look at the under came in for

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia for their last game, went under by thirteen and

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Speaker 2: a half points, but that snapped a six game streak

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Speaker 2: of going over for the Lakers, and at home every

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Speaker 2: game has gone over ten and oh seven and three

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Speaker 2: over their last ten overall, four and one and four

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Speaker 2: and one for the Spurs over their last ten games

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Speaker 2: as well our five games as well. Rather, I think

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Speaker 2: we see offense. I think we see pace. Even with

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Speaker 2: the fact that the under has been a good bet

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Speaker 2: in the knockout rounds.

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Speaker 1: Lakers don't play defense with Lebron, they just don't. They run.

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Speaker 2: I think Luca has a big game here today. I

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Speaker 2: think Castle is a big game today. I think just

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Speaker 2: the guards for the Spurs will score, but the Lakers

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Speaker 2: will get theirs. I think this is a track meet,

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Speaker 2: fast game, fast paced game, up and down. I'm taking

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Speaker 2: the over over two thirty seven. Think I got two

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Speaker 2: thirty six and a half. Sorry, I got two thirty

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Speaker 2: six and a half better number two thirty six and

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Speaker 2: a half for Lakers and the Spurs for one point

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Speaker 2: one units. Shop around the book I was just looking

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Speaker 2: at was two thirty seven. I got to thirty six

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Speaker 2: and a half better number two thirty six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it matters. I think this game gets

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Speaker 2: in the two forties for Sperkrit for the Lais for

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Speaker 2: the Lakers in the Spurs and second bet, same game.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the side and that's five and a half.

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Speaker 2: It opened up four and a half. It's now five

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Speaker 2: and a half for the Lakers and the Spurs. The

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Speaker 2: Lakers are fifteen and eight against the number this year.

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Speaker 2: They're ten and six against the number against the West.

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Speaker 2: The Spurs are seven eight and one against the West.

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Speaker 2: And if when Miyamo is playing in this game, this

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Speaker 2: number one wouldn't be five and a half and two,

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Speaker 2: I would give the Spurs a pretty good chance of

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Speaker 2: winning this game outright. But the Lakers have been really

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Speaker 2: good at home. The Lakers have been a scoring machine.

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Speaker 2: And again I like Luca, I like Lebron, I like

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Speaker 2: offense here.

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Speaker 1: I think the.

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Speaker 2: Lakers score a ton of points tonight here in this game,

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Speaker 2: and I do think it's two possessions, so it's mainly

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Speaker 2: kind of over two possessions. But I think there's a

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Speaker 2: good shot, much like the Nick game yesterday, where I

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Speaker 2: think the number you can kind of chase steam a bit.

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Speaker 2: Here Lakers are at home. I think the Lakers will

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Speaker 2: be locked in and this is not a Spurs team

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Speaker 2: without Wemby Yama. I just don't think they're the same

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Speaker 2: team at all in terms of the punch. And I

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Speaker 2: think the number just isn't great. I mean, they've been okay.

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Speaker 2: They're two and two over their last five games against

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Speaker 2: the number. They're three and one straight up, beating New Orleans,

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Speaker 2: losing to Cleveland, beating Orlando, beating Memphis. They lost to

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Speaker 2: Minnesota by thirteen. They win over Denver was impressive on

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Speaker 2: the road. They won at the Nuggets by three. But

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Speaker 2: I just think this Lakers team at home has been

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Speaker 2: really good. I think straight up wise, you know, seventeen

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Speaker 2: and six for the Lakers are seven and three at

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Speaker 2: home straight up. They're eight and two over their last

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Speaker 2: ten games in the twelve and four straight up against

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Speaker 2: the Western Conference, and I do think that they want

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Speaker 2: to win this game. I do think coming to Vegas,

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Speaker 2: I think it's up to Lebron wants to have a

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Speaker 2: team here. I think Lebron playing in Las Vegas, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of reasons business wise. I think Lebron wants

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Speaker 2: this victory. I think he'll be focused. I think he'll

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Speaker 2: be locked in to win this game. And I think

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Speaker 2: Luca could have a monster night tonight for the Lakers.

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Speaker 1: I'll take La.

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Speaker 2: I'll lay the five and a half, Lakers minus five

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Speaker 2: and a half, so OKC in Phoenix under two twenty

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Speaker 2: five and a half, Lakers Spurs over two thirty six

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Speaker 2: and a half, and the Lakers minus five and a half.

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Speaker 2: That takes us to our hard Rock bet of the day.

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Speaker 2: This is for tomorrow on Thursday Night football between the

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Bucks and the Atlanta Falcons. Man this is

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Speaker 2: a trend collision course coming up here for this game.

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Speaker 2: At first and foremost, let me remind you about our

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Speaker 2: friends at hard Rock Bet that they are the presenting

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Speaker 2: Bet of the Day Tampa Bay. We're seven and two

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Speaker 2: now on these bets. Get a load of the trends. Okay,

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Speaker 2: this is again a complete collision course. Normally, betting Baker

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Speaker 2: Mayfield as a home favorite.

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Speaker 1: Is a very bad deal, a very bad idea.

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Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield in fourteen starts at night in primetime is

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Speaker 2: two and twelve straight up, four and ten against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is reeling at the moment. The Bucks are

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Speaker 2: in complete free fall at the moment. They're now a

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Speaker 2: five hundred football team. Or sorry, they're seven and six now,

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Speaker 2: excuse me, but they're three and three straight up at home,

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Speaker 2: and they have lost four of five. They beat Arizona,

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Speaker 2: but they've lost to New Orleans, Buffalo, the Rams, and

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Speaker 2: the Patriots here over the last five games. On the

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Speaker 2: flip side, though, Atlanta is two and five on the road,

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Speaker 2: and with Kirk Cousins playing quarterback, they are one in

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Speaker 2: nine ats. That is horrible, I'm sorry, one in eight

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Speaker 2: eight ats. Over the last nine starts since twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins is seventeen twenty six and one against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins in starts in December or later is two

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Speaker 2: and nine against the spread.

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Speaker 1: This number has come.

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Speaker 2: All the way down to four because of the injury

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Speaker 2: to Baker Mayfield. Baker is not healthy, Okay, his left

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Speaker 2: shoulder is a mess. He does not win at night

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Speaker 2: in Baker Mayfield as a favorite.

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Speaker 1: It's not good.

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Speaker 2: He's thirteen twenty four and one as a favorite at home. Okay,

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Speaker 2: just not good, not good at all. Over the last decade,

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Speaker 2: Baker's record of twenty two thirty five and one against

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Speaker 2: the spread is one of the worst in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: It's actually the worst in the NFL. The second worst

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Speaker 2: is Kirk Cousins, so we have two diametrically opposing quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Here's the difference outdoor games. This year, the Falcons are

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Speaker 2: zero and five straight up and two to three against

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Speaker 2: the number an outdoor game. Since twenty twenty, the Falcons

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Speaker 2: are eleven and twenty one straight up and they've lost

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Speaker 2: seven straight games entering this week. And the Falcons got

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Speaker 2: blasted by the Seahawks at home last week thirty seven

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Speaker 2: to nine. They were outscored thirty one to three in

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Speaker 2: the second half, and frankly, I think this Tampa defense,

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Speaker 2: it's time for them to step up. Okay, it is

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Speaker 2: time for them to play a four quarter game against

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Speaker 2: a Falcons team that amazingly enough. When they run the football,

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Speaker 2: they're a worse team even with Bejhon Robinson. Yes, they've

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Speaker 2: got a great tight end in Kyle Pitts. It looks

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Speaker 2: like Drake Lennon is not going to play in this game.

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Speaker 2: This just has to be an all hands on deck

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Speaker 2: type game. The Panthers have caught the Bucks for the division.

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Speaker 2: They play them two times in the next four weeks.

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Speaker 2: This is a short week. Tampa's at home, Tampa's outside.

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Speaker 2: I think Tampa wins. I think Tampa cover here. I'm

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Speaker 2: not trusting Kirk Cousins in primetime. I'm not trusting the

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Speaker 2: Falcons on the road, and Tampa is absolutely up against it.

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Speaker 1: This is a.

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Speaker 2: Complete panic spot here where I think this team all

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Speaker 2: hands on deck. I think the coaching staff knows it.

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Speaker 2: I think the quarterback knows it. I think the running

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Speaker 2: backs know it. Everyone knows it. They need Ubuka to

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Speaker 2: have a big game. I think he can. They need help.

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Speaker 2: They need a receiver to step up and be the

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Speaker 2: number one weapon here for Baker Mayfield. I know, look,

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Speaker 2: betting on Baker as a home favorite is a dangerous proposition.

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Speaker 2: But this is Kirk Cousins and a Dome team and

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Speaker 2: the Falcons going outdoors on a short week.

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Speaker 1: I'm going in with it link give me.

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Speaker 2: Four Tampa Bay minus four at minus one ten for

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Speaker 2: one point one units for the hard rock bet of

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Speaker 2: the Day for Thursday Night football. Okay, that's tomorrow. For today,

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Speaker 2: three plays okay see Phoenix under Lakers, Spurs over and

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Speaker 2: the Lakers minus five and a half min is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow me across all my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice