1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:04,519 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 2: people over for a seconds. 4 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel Brendan 5 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 3: glas Sheen. 6 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: With you Action Networks. 7 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 3: UFC betting previews are back, joining me too of actions 8 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 3: top UFC betting experts, Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. We 9 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 3: have a breakdown of UFC two eighty four coming your way. 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 3: It's at the Perth Arena in Western Australia before we 11 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 3: dive in Fellas. Good to see you, Zillo. How's it Ben? 12 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 3: I joke with Zirello after baseball is over. I don't 13 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: know if he exists, and he's here in the flesh. 14 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 4: Still writing, but we have not had the chance to 15 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 4: get back and join one another. 16 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: So it's good to be back. 17 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 4: What a card we're back for too second time and 18 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 4: UFC history and number one and number two pounds for 19 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 4: pound squaring off, so what a time to be alive. 20 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 3: Billy Ward, good to see you. We'll have some NFL work. 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 3: I mean you're still doing NFL this year, but good 22 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 3: to have you. 23 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: On the UFC front on the podcast. 24 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, big sports weekend. 25 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 6: We got a major pay per view and also a 26 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 6: football game later on, so I'm looking forward to it. 27 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: So before we dive into the event this weekend, just 28 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 3: maybe a refresher. I know you guys are doing content 29 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 3: over on the website in the Action Network app, you 30 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 3: can download it for free. But folks listening to the 31 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 3: pod that might be inclined to tune in to get picks. 32 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: Which we're getting to the picks. 33 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 3: Maybe a piece of advice, Zilo, you'd give someone who 34 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 3: might be new to betting UFC. 35 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 4: Cardio is king. You know, the ABCS of MMA betting 36 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 4: is to always bet on Cardio. You will hear me 37 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 4: reference Cardio and cardio discrepancy a lot throughout these fight breakdowns. 38 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 4: Not only does it lead into how I'm betting fighters 39 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 4: pre fight, it also heavily influence is how I'm approaching 40 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 4: these fights from a live betting perspective, And if you 41 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 4: follow me on Twitter, I think there's a bigger edge 42 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 4: live betting MMA than there is pre fight. 43 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: Billy, you got. 44 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 6: Something, yeah, that actually lines up perfectly, which with what 45 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 6: I was going to say about the live betting, where 46 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 6: those markets are just going to be a lot more 47 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 6: inefficient in a sport like MMA, because we don't have 48 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 6: live scoring, no one actually knows what the judges have 49 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 6: anything scored at any given point. So imagine if we 50 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 6: were live betting a basketball or a football game, but 51 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 6: nobody could see the score. 52 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 5: That's the kind of situation we're in. 53 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 6: So if you have a good hold on you know 54 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 6: how judges might see a fight, or which fighters in 55 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 6: better shape, which one has better optics in the corner, 56 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 6: those are gonna be some big gudges. 57 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: Okay, good stuff. Those are some things to keep in mind. 58 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 3: So again in this episode, we'll be breaking down UFC 59 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 3: two eighty four. This weekend, we'll look at favorite underdog plays, props, 60 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 3: and more, and then we'll get best bets from Sean 61 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 3: and Billy. But first we'll start with the main event, 62 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 3: Bakatchav versed Volkanowski lightweight title. The top two pound fighters 63 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 3: in the world will find out who really is the best. 64 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 3: I suppose after this weekend and when we do these 65 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 3: main fights, just going back to previous podcasts, it's not 66 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 3: always just picking who's going to win the fight, because 67 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 3: Mikatchev is a significant favorite when you look at the 68 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 3: money line pick, but it's a chance for these guys 69 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 3: to give you maybe a different angle to get an edge. 70 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: So Zarilla, how. 71 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 3: Do you want to bet the main event Mikatchev Volkanowski? 72 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the fight to end inside the distance 73 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 4: at minus one seventy six at Vando projected this closer 74 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 4: to minus one ninety. Wouldn't really bet it passed about 75 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 4: minus one eighty. That would be my cutoff price. I 76 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 4: do think though, in terms of the money line side, 77 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 4: Volkanovski is the value side. He's being disrespected here in 78 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 4: terms of price and clear edge and the striking likely 79 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 4: in the cardio if he's able to extend this fight 80 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 4: further into the championship rounds, has amongst the best cardio 81 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 4: on the UFC roster and isn't cutting weight here so 82 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 4: should be even better than it normally is. Would a 83 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 4: lean to him on the money line would wait until 84 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 4: closer to fight time, Maybe you get a plus three 85 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 4: to fifty or even a plus four hundred if the 86 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 4: line continues to blow out out In terms of how 87 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 4: he needs to approach this fight, I would actually expect 88 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 4: him to be a bit more aggressive than he normally is. 89 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 4: Big underdog has nothing to lose moving up here, and 90 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 4: wait needs to probably pursue the knockout. Otherwise, if he 91 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 4: tries to stay on the outside fight his normal game plan, 92 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 4: he will probably eventually get taken down and have to 93 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 4: work his way back to his feet. Should win the 94 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 4: striking with the speed jab leg kicks, but I think 95 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 4: eventually Mikachev is going to catch one of those kicks 96 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 4: and take him down, or put him up against the 97 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: cage and take him down. Makatchev by submission would be 98 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 4: the way I would prefer to play the favorite instead 99 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 4: of the money line. I think that's a better price 100 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 4: than his money line price. And if he wins, I 101 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 4: expect him to get on top of Volkanovski and finish him. 102 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 4: But just bet the fight that inside the distance at 103 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 4: minus one seventy six and wait for that Volkanovski money 104 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 4: line to blow out a little bit further. 105 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 3: All right, So Zarillo says Volkanovsky has value on the 106 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 3: money line, and Billy, you're willing to go there now? 107 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm totally with Sean on that. I guess, slight disagreement. 108 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 6: I think a lot of money's coming in on Vulk. 109 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 6: I was able to get him at plus three twenty 110 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 6: yesterday I'm actually seeing that come down now, which is 111 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 6: not normally what we would expect. You know, what Sean's 112 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 6: telling you to weight on the underdog cowards end usually 113 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 6: very good advice. I think we're seeing a little bit 114 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 6: of reverse. So just you know, if you're out there 115 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 6: betting it, make sure you're keeping a close eye on 116 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 6: these lines, because I wouldn't be shocked for it to 117 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 6: go either way. At this point, only points on hunder 118 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 6: make on bulk. You know, a lot's been made about 119 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 6: him coming up in weight class. He's a big dude. 120 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 6: He's not tall, but he's a big, strong guy. He 121 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 6: fought as high as welterweight as a professional. I think 122 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 6: he walked around it over two hundred pounds when he 123 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 6: was playing rugby. And this is only a ten pound 124 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 6: jump in weight class. You know we saw is there 125 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 6: a lot a sign to go up to two o five? 126 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 6: That was a twenty pound jump from a not big 127 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 6: middleweight and he looked like a much smaller man there. 128 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 6: You know, we've seen fighters do this in the past, 129 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 6: but those ten pounds between forty five and fifty five, 130 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 6: those are really the two closest divisions proportionately in the UFC, 131 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 6: so I don't think that's as big a. 132 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 5: Factor as people make it out to be. 133 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 6: Islam's not really a huge lightweight, and Volkanovski is a 134 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 6: big dude, So if you're worried about the size, I 135 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 6: don't think that as much of a concern. 136 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 5: Here. 137 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 4: Bolkosa has a one inch reach advantage even though he's 138 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 4: much shorter, so definitely worth noting for the striking. We'll 139 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 4: have the speed advantage and the reach advantage. 140 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 1: Moving on to our. 141 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 3: Favorite underdog plays, we'll go to Zarillo first. I always 142 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 3: love these because you guys really do some deep dives 143 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 3: and some edges that can be found. 144 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I go with Randy Ruboy Brown plus two fifty five. 145 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 4: I believe Billy and I were both on him when 146 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 4: he faced Chaos Williams. I can't remember if we disagreed 147 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 4: on that fighter, if we were both on Randy, but 148 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 4: we both do like Randy as a fighter. A lot 149 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 4: of fun to watch, very smooth, very electric with how 150 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 4: he approaches fights, and he has a lot of advantages 151 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 4: here despite being a huge underdog. Fog just taller, five inches, longer, 152 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 4: better strength, to schedule all of the grappling upside. I 153 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 4: think he's going to dominate in the clinch here if 154 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 4: he pursues it. I think he's going to dominate on 155 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 4: the mat if he pursues takedowns. You look at his 156 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 4: fight history, doesn't generally pursue takedowns at a high degree 157 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 4: or you know, at a high pace. But I do 158 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 4: think he knows what he's in for here against Jack 159 00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 4: del Matlana, very one dimensional boxer, doesn't even throw ton 160 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 4: of leg kicks. A great boxer gonna hit Randy in 161 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 4: the head, gonna hit him to the body, throws long combinations. 162 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 4: Randy relies on head movement. I think Jack Della is 163 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 4: gonna connect. But if Randy aggressively pursues takedowns, pursues the grappling, 164 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 4: I think he's got a big advantage there in this fight. 165 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 4: And I do think the striking is going to be 166 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 4: pretty even other than the fact that I do have 167 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 4: some concerns about Randy's durability. So plus two fifty five 168 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 4: a lot of reasons to back Randy Brown, and then 169 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 4: plus thirteen hundred by submission, given that grappling advantage I 170 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 4: think is a solid play as well. Project those bets 171 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 4: closer to plus two hundred and plus nine hundred, respectively, 172 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 4: so solid value there on both bets. 173 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 3: His nickname is Rude Boy, and Rihanna's performing at the 174 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 3: super Bowl. 175 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: It aligns perfectly. 176 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 4: And he's you know, he's from queen well not from 177 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 4: Queen's originally, but he has a history with queens. I 178 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 4: am from Queen's originally, so got to back my guy. 179 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 3: So Zarrillo is telling you that don't be fooled by 180 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 3: the number on the on the as far as being 181 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 3: an underdog, there's some value there in that price. 182 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 4: Billy, he gets folded quickly, you know, with a body shot, 183 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 4: or it gets knocked out quickly. This fight is going 184 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 4: to be much more competitive than the odds suggest, especially 185 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 4: the longer it goes, Billy, where do you go to. 186 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: In the underdog market real quick? 187 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 6: On the Randy Brown fight, I'm mostly with Seawan's read. 188 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 6: This is just a tough one where I wish there 189 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 6: was an easier way in MMA to bet on a 190 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 6: fight to be closer than we think, because I don't 191 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 6: really see Randy Brown winning, but he's so long and 192 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 6: awkward and has some skills in ways that Della Madelina 193 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 6: doesn't that I just really wish there's a good like 194 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 6: a point spread type weight about which some books are 195 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 6: starting to offer. 196 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 5: But I definitely agree with Sean that this is not 197 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 5: going to be as much of a blow out as 198 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:37,599 Speaker 5: the odds would it. 199 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 3: Is this going to come down to wrestling at the end? 200 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: Is that going to decide this? 201 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 5: Yeah? 202 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,719 Speaker 4: I think if Jack can deny the takedowns and keep 203 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 4: it on the feet, I think ultimately he does end 204 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 4: up winning the striking. He probably figures out Randy's long, 205 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 4: awkward approach because it is difficult to look good against him, 206 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 4: and he ends up getting inside and hitting him. Because Randy, 207 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 4: as I said, relies on head movement, Jack throws a 208 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 4: lot along combinations. So the end, the end of those 209 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 4: comminations I think will land because Randy just eventually will 210 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 4: lean to the wrong side with his head. But yes, 211 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 4: if Jack and I the takedowns, I think he wins 212 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 4: the fight. If Randy can get this fight to the mat, 213 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 4: or if you can just hold him up the fence 214 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 4: against the fence in the clinch, I think he wins 215 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 4: the fight. 216 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 1: All right, Billy, what do you got for a sunderdog play? 217 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 5: Yeah? 218 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 6: So there's definitely a couple other underdogs we're gonna get 219 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 6: too with other segments. One I'm looking at is Elvis Brenner. 220 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 6: He's a shooter box fighter out of Brazil. He's plus 221 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 6: four forty versus who buyer Tucku Golf and I probably 222 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 6: butchered that name. It's not that I think he, you know, 223 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 6: is not necessarily going to win this fight. Those are 224 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 6: really long odds for against a guy like Tucku Goof 225 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 6: who is two two and one in his last UFC fights. 226 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 6: He's not some dominating, you know, Russian wrestler like we see. 227 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 6: I think he's getting kind of loop lumped in with 228 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 6: that is on Makachev category of guys with just suffocating grappling, 229 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 6: but he's not that level. 230 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 5: He's not that good. 231 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 6: And Elvis Brenner, and there's thirteen pro wins, eleven submissions, 232 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 6: you know, really solid Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt against 233 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 6: the guy who's gonna shoot and want to wrestle him. 234 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 5: You know, I think he could catch something in there. 235 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 5: I also like his submission props. 236 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 6: You can see those as high as I think plus 237 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 6: eleven hundred maybe plus one thousand, So a little bit 238 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 6: of a sprinkle for me, don't think he's necessarily going 239 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 6: to win, but those are pretty long odds on a 240 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 6: guy who could catch his submission coming in. 241 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 3: The guys fight of the night, Emmett Rodriguez the featherweight 242 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 3: title is. 243 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: The fight we're going to zone in on here. 244 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: It's basically the Cole main event, but it doesn't quite 245 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 3: live up to the billing as the top two pound 246 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 3: for pound fighters in the world. It doesn't get the 247 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 3: same sort of love. But that is what we've got 248 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 3: for you this week. As far as a fight of 249 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 3: the night, Sorilla, how do you want to play this one? 250 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a fake featherweight title fight, interim title about Yeah, 251 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 4: you're one. 252 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 1: I tried my best with my tone to deliver that same. 253 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 4: Ye, I'm willing to call it what it is. Josh 254 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 4: Emmett probably lost his last fight versus Calvin Cator. I 255 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 4: was on Cater there, willing to be objective. Still think 256 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 4: that Cater won the fight, and then yeah years lone 257 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 4: win since twenty nineteen came against Brian or Tega. I 258 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 4: was at that fight. Ortega dislocated his shoulder in a scramble. 259 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 4: So yeah, beat up by Max Holloway has earned an 260 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 4: interim title bout. Somehow, it is still an intriguing stylistic matchup. Yeah, 261 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,559 Speaker 4: your speed, his kicking game from the outside against Josh 262 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 4: Emmett's power and his grappling. I actually think Emmett has 263 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 4: bigger upside to look like a huge favorite if he's 264 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 4: able to aggressively pursue takedowns and create a grappling heavy 265 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 4: game plan over the course of twenty five minutes. Yeah, 266 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 4: yours takedown defense is not particularly good. That's the reason 267 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 4: why I bet Brian or Tega against them, even though 268 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 4: Ortega isn't great at getting takedowns himself. But Emmett typically 269 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 4: doesn't try to grapple too often because it's going to 270 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 4: drain his gas tank, puts power into all of his techniques, 271 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 4: throws a lot of power behind his shots. There's also 272 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 4: rumors coming into the fight that he's dealing with a 273 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 4: hip injury. The line has blown out towards the iure Rodriguez. 274 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 4: I would say Emmett looking at it without the hip 275 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 4: injury clear value side having the hip injury rumors out there, 276 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 4: it probably seems about accurate, But I do like the 277 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 4: fight to end inside the distance. Bet it at plus 278 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 4: money rejected it at minus one fifteen. I like it 279 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 4: to about minus one oh five. Considering Emmett's power, the 280 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 4: fact that he can get on top of the ieur 281 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 4: and finish him that way, and the fact that he's 282 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 4: dealing with an injury. I think there's a lot of reasons, 283 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 4: in a lot of ways that this fike can finish. 284 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 3: So if you shop around the line I'm seeing right 285 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 3: now for Rodriguez, is it minus one eighty m at 286 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 3: plus one fifty five? So yes, that that would tell 287 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 3: us that Rodriguez is a favorite in this case. 288 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 4: And I'm starting to see some sharper books ticking towards 289 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 4: minus two hundred minus two fifteen on Rodriguez. So definitely 290 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 4: think there's some sharper money out there that are clearly 291 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 4: indicating something's off with the mtside. 292 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:46,319 Speaker 3: Okay, and look, he's he's almost there in terms of 293 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 3: the rankings, right behind Rodriguez. He's captured five in a row. 294 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 3: He's making a push here, so we'll see what that 295 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 3: looks like. Might be something you want? 296 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: Are you encouraging people if they want to play? 297 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 3: I guess is there an angle on betting emmittt on 298 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 3: the money line? 299 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: If things shift before Saturday night. 300 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 4: If you see him coming to the fight, and this 301 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 4: is where we talk about live betting, because some books 302 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 4: keep live markets up in the middle of rounds. If 303 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 4: you see him come out and immediately hit a takedown, 304 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 4: or you see him come out and he looks like 305 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 4: he's moving, fine, you could take a shot on him 306 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 4: at a live price at around the same odds pretty 307 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 4: quickly into the fight. So something that you can observe 308 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 4: and fire on, you know, gather information and fire on 309 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 4: rather quickly into the fight, because if he hits a takedown, 310 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 4: yere here is going to be in trouble. 311 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 3: Billy Emmett Rodriguez do you have Are you hyped up 312 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 3: for this one more than Zerillo? 313 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 5: No? 314 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 6: I pretty much agree with Sean. It's it's tough because 315 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 6: it's an intriguing fight between two guys I like to watch. 316 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 6: There's also no reason that should be for an interim 317 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 6: title fight. One, we don't need an interim title fight 318 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 6: because Wolkonovski is stepping away for one fight. 319 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 5: Two. 320 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 6: If we were going to do one, it probably shouldn't 321 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 6: be these guys. It should be Max Holloway and probably 322 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 6: Arnold Allen, who I believe are fighting each other coming up. 323 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 6: Those two guys are pretty clearly the next best featherweights 324 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 6: out there. But you know, not the point. It should 325 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 6: be an entertaining fight. To your point about you know, 326 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 6: if we see the line move on, I'm it. I 327 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 6: used to think like that. We've seen so many lines 328 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 6: move because somebody had some inside information, a lot of 329 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 6: money was come in. I'm too scared to chase that, 330 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 6: you know, reverse line movement in the UFC at this point. 331 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 6: If I see a bunch of money come in on Rodriguez, 332 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 6: I'm gonna think there's probably something to that. 333 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 5: But outside of that, I'm in lockstep with Sean. 334 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 6: I think does not go to a decision at plus 335 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 6: one awaight at FanDuel right now, very solid bet. Our 336 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 6: colleague Dan Tom did a breakdown of this fight. That 337 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 6: was his pick too. I think it's a really hard 338 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 6: fight to pick a side on. I think both those 339 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 6: guys made some really compelling points. So I'm gonna take 340 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 6: it to end in a finish, and then that way, 341 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 6: if one fighter is injured coming in, we also got 342 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 6: really good we're protected against that because if one fighter 343 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 6: is injured coming in, probably finish. 344 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I you know, if you're gonna play a side, 345 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 4: I like either fighters finish props knockout for year or 346 00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 4: inside the distance for Emmitt. 347 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: Okay, good advice. 348 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 3: Despite the Again, I think in some cases, you know 349 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 3: you want to get on something. 350 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: Early, and in this case, to Zerrilla's. 351 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 3: Point, you know you might want to wait with some 352 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 3: sharper money coming in on the other side when it 353 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 3: comes to emmittt or we need more things to shake 354 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 3: out before the before the weekend gets really going here. 355 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 3: This is always fun the prop market, Zerrilla, what did 356 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 3: you find as far as something you liked in the 357 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 3: prop market for this weekend? 358 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 5: Yeah. 359 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 4: So we talked about Cardio earlier, and that's a place 360 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 4: where there's a big Cardio discrepancy between two fighters where 361 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 4: I'm going to look to play late props, round two, 362 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 4: round three, finish props for one fighter. So they Jamie 363 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 4: Mullarkey versus Francisco Prato fight Prado, the early finisher ARC 364 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 4: type one hundred percent finish rate coming off of the 365 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 4: regional scene, never face the UFC opponent. And when we 366 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 4: see these debutantes take a step up against UFC caliber competition, 367 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 4: have one hundred percent finish rate. When that finish doesn't 368 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 4: come early for them, they tend to fade in the 369 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 4: later rounds and eventually get put away. And Jamie Mollark 370 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 4: the exact type of fighter who it's going to be 371 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 4: a nightmare against because he tends to push a pace 372 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 4: with his cardio, with his wrestling and build and get 373 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 4: better as his fights go. So Jamie Malarkey in a 374 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 4: spot where you absolutely want to bet him to win 375 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 4: in round two at plus five fifty, we're in round 376 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 4: three at plus one thousand. 377 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 1: He could be a slow starter. 378 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 4: Prato can absolutely clip him, but the longer the fight goes, 379 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 4: the more Malarkey should drown him with pace. If you're 380 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 4: at a book where you can play a same game 381 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 4: parlay with Mallarkey in the over one and a half rounds, 382 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 4: that's about plus one thirty. I think that's an interesting 383 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 4: bet as well. But the round two round three props 384 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 4: just a bit juice here for me plus five to 385 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 4: fifty plus one thousand, respectively, Billy would you find? 386 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 5: Yeah? 387 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 6: Perfectly did in for mind, because I'm looking at a 388 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 6: fighter who has all the upside early and if he's 389 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 6: gonna win, he's gonna get it done soon, and that's 390 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 6: Alonzo Menifield. He's fighting Jimmy Crute, you know, Alonso has 391 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 6: I think all but one of his wins are finishes, 392 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 6: and all but one of those are in the first round. 393 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 6: Big strong guy, super jacked up. Can't believe he makes 394 00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 6: two oh five. All that muscle uses a lot of energy, 395 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 6: doesn't last very long. So right now, at fandel you 396 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 6: can bet him to win in either round one or 397 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 6: round two. You get both at plus two seventy. That's 398 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 6: certainly one way to play it. To Sean's point about 399 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 6: the same game, parlays under one and a half and 400 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 6: his money line similar concept. I don't want to just 401 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 6: take round one because he's probably gonna get wrestled by 402 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 6: crud a little bit. Round two is gonna start standing 403 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 6: and he's gonna be a little bit fresher with a 404 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 6: minute off, So I want that opening of round two 405 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 6: as well. But I also really like Menifield here, you know, 406 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 6: just kind of underdog money line play. Crew comes and 407 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 6: throws really heavy kicks, really heavy punches, but he leaves 408 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 6: his hands down and doesn't move his head well against 409 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 6: a guy like Menafield who has tremendous power. 410 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 5: That's really not a good combination. 411 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 6: Menafield's also another example of the shorter height but longer 412 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 6: reach that I like to reference. Because he's shorter, he 413 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:48,959 Speaker 6: can carry more muscle and still make the weight class, 414 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 6: but because his arms are longer, he also can control 415 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 6: the distance hit Crup from a Rangeherecruit can't hit him. 416 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 6: And if you guys, you know anyone looking about this, 417 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 6: go look up a picture of these two guys. You'll 418 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 6: be very surprised that they're in the same weight class. 419 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 6: Menifield is massive but only six feet tall with long arms, 420 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 6: so that works out really well. Here doesn't project well 421 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 6: for him down the stretch if this fight makes it 422 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 6: past six to seven minutes. But if we're gonna play Menifield, 423 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 6: we definitely want those early finished. 424 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 4: I think that's a great breakdown by Billy. I just 425 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 4: want to add, because we talked about Cardio, and Billy 426 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 4: talked about Cardio, the way I would approach the fight, 427 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 4: because I'm not betting a pre fight, is to wait 428 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 4: until after round one to live back Creup. Maybe he 429 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 4: gets bunked in the first minute of round two, as 430 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 4: Billy said, but I do you expect him to have 431 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 4: his most success probably in the second half of the fight, 432 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:33,880 Speaker 4: so I would want to look to live bet him 433 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 4: after round two, hopefully after Manifield wins a round one. 434 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 6: Yeah, I did the preview piece for that fight and 435 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 6: that was my take as well as that, you know, 436 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 6: Bett Manifield early, Creuit late. If you're not watching the fight, 437 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 6: maybe you take Cruton over one and a half crooton 438 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 6: round two, Creuton round three. If you're gonna be watching 439 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 6: the fight, that live line is definitely the way to go. 440 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 4: Creud also coming back off of leg injury too, so 441 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 4: another thing where can kind of gather information early see 442 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 4: how he's moving. 443 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 3: Okay, and based on the odds, it looks like we're 444 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 3: could hover around five six minutes. I think I'm just 445 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 3: going off of the betting gods here and then a 446 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 3: couple of rounds. 447 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, Manifield is he's basically a coin flip to finish 448 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 4: inside the first seven and a half minutes every time, 449 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 4: finish inside the first round every time, essentially, and then 450 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,199 Speaker 4: it sort of comes down to his cardio and how 451 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 4: it holds up after that. 452 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 3: All right, good stuff, So again, more live betting opportunities 453 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 3: for this for this particular event. Okay, we wrap as 454 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 3: we normally do with a best bet for UFC two 455 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 3: eighty four at the Perth this weekend. 456 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: We'll go to Zerrilla first, then. 457 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 4: Billy another tremendous live bet, but a bet I like 458 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 4: pre fight as well. Parker Porter at even money against 459 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 4: Justin Tafa. Tafa a very one dimensional power striker. He 460 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 4: hits hard. He should have some success early, but the 461 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 4: longer the fight goes the more I think Porter should 462 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 4: take over more volume, better cardio, all the grappling upside 463 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 4: and with Tafa. His first level takedown defense is okay, 464 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 4: but once you break through that defense he is an 465 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 4: absolute fish on the mat. I think takedown defense is 466 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 4: enough to win a round, if not the fight for Porter, 467 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 4: and another thing that goes against the Tafa side, once 468 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 4: you get him tired, he does not carry his power. 469 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 4: There are other fighters like Derek Lewis, who when you 470 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 4: get them tired, they can still hit really hard and 471 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 4: put you out. Justin Taffa's power fades very quickly, so 472 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 4: I think after the first couple of minutes of this fight, 473 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 4: Parker Porter is pretty much at a danger here. I 474 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 4: think he is gonna drown. Justin Tafa with Cardio why 475 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 4: better after round one? Certainly a great spot. I expect 476 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 4: Porter tont win round one though, unless he gets knocked out, 477 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 4: So Porter even money pre fight I made him closer 478 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 4: to minus one twenty. Feel free to bet him up 479 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 4: pre fight to minus one ten. 480 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: All right, Billy, what do you got best bet? 481 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 5: Yeah? 482 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 6: I'm looking at the other fight that's roughly a pick 483 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 6: them as we've seen throughout the week. That's Melsick Bagdasarian 484 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 6: versus Josh Cooleyboo. This lne's bounced around a little bit. 485 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 6: You know, at certain points you've been able to get 486 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 6: both fighters underdog money. But this should be a pure 487 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 6: kickboxing matchup. You know, Melsick Bagdasari and former K one kickboxer. 488 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 6: I'm a professional boxer. Kulibo has a few fights in 489 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 6: the UFC, has never so much as attempted to take down. 490 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 6: I think that's a pretty bad matchup for Kouliboo, you know, 491 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 6: against another high level striker like that. Kulibao in his 492 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,159 Speaker 6: UFC wins, he's two one and one, but he has 493 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 6: a split and a unanimous decision win. Bagdasarian has a 494 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 6: vicious knockout in a pretty dominating unanimous decision. So you know, 495 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 6: when we've got a guy who's a pure striker but 496 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,959 Speaker 6: doesn't really have a ton of finishing upside, that's not 497 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 6: someone I want to bet on, especially the way fights 498 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 6: are judged now, where that damage optics is so important. 499 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 6: I think, no matter who's touching each other more, Melsiic 500 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 6: strikes are going to look like they're doing more, which 501 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 6: may or may not be fair. You know, we're working 502 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 6: against the home judging for Koulibo, but I don't think 503 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 6: that's going to be as big of a factor. So 504 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 6: Melsick has all the volume upside, He throws a lot 505 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 6: more strikes, his strikes at least appear to be landing harder. 506 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 5: It basically a coin flip. I'll take that. 507 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 6: I'd take him down to about minus one twenty, but 508 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 6: shop around because this one's gone all over the place 509 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 6: throughout the week. 510 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 5: All right, good. 511 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: Stuff, gentlemen, great work as always. 512 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 3: That'll do it for the UFC two eighty four betting 513 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 3: preview on the Network podcast presented by Fandel. We'll be 514 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 3: joining you more regularly now throughout the UFC season. 515 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: So good to get back underway. 516 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 3: Shake off the cobwebs heading into Super Bowl weekend, but 517 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 3: also the big event in Australia. Find more from Sean 518 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 3: and Billy can find them in the Action app. Actionnetwork 519 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 3: dot Com strongly encourage all of you to take a 520 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 3: look follow those guys and you can get the free 521 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 3: award winning content in the Action Network app and get 522 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 3: some of more of their picks if indeed they go 523 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,439 Speaker 3: to the live betting market. Again, we talked a lot 524 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 3: about live betting. That's a great opportunity to find what 525 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 3: those guys might be doing. 526 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 1: Best of luck to all of you at the picks. 527 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 3: This weekend and we'll see you next time on the 528 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. 529 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. If you or 530 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 531 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler