1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Yesterday, surrounded by coal miners and coal executives, President Trump 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: signed a sweeping executive order meant to reverse Obama administration 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,320 Speaker 1: policies on power plants and climate change, which were meant 4 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: to fulfill the United States commitments to reduce emissions under 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: the Paris Climate Accords. The executive order will require federal 6 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: agencies to reconsider or revise numerous emissions related rules, and 7 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,639 Speaker 1: some states and environmentalists are already gearing up to sue 8 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: over possible changes. The eventual impact of the order, meanwhile, 9 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 1: is not yet clear. Here with us to talk about 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: the President's executive order are Charles Warren, a partner at 11 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: Kramer Levin Neftalis and Frankel, and Patrick Parentea, professor at 12 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: the Vermont Law School pat The executive order the President's 13 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: signed is entitled Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth. What 14 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: will this order do to promote American energy independence? Do much? 15 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: The order can be broken down in three parts. One 16 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: the immediate effect, which is to repeal many of the 17 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: Obama administration policies and guidance with regard to reducing carbon 18 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: pollution that's causing climate change, and also preparing for the 19 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: already evident impacts of climate change, So those those things 20 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: that were not formal rules were wiped off the books 21 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: with a stroke of a pen. The other thing, of course, 22 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: is that he directed all of the agencies of government 23 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: to look at their their rules, policies, procedures and and 24 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 1: see which ones are standing in the way of production 25 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: of domestic energy, with an emphasis of course on oil, gas, coal, 26 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: and nuclear and only slight mention of renewables and other resources. 27 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: So those are the immediate things. The lifting of the 28 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: coal moratorium on public lands that was put in place 29 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: because studies have shown that coal federal coal is being 30 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: sold at below market value and in the United States 31 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: is actually losing money on coal leasing. Um that that's 32 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: been lifted. So that's an immediate thing. And then there's 33 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: a whole in a much more important second category of 34 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: rules that are already in the books, like the Clean 35 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: Power Plan, like the methane rules for new oil and 36 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 1: gas facilities and so forth. UM. I'll let Charles talking 37 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: about some of this as well. And for those the 38 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: rule does the order does nothing, those will have to 39 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: go through notice and comment rulemaking under the Administrative Procedure Act. 40 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: They'll then be challenged in court, And as many commentators 41 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 1: have said already, and I'll just repeat, it'll be years 42 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: before we know whether any of these proposed rollbacks of 43 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: rules that are already on the books will actually be 44 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: upheld by the courts. Chuck, what do you consider to 45 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: be the most hurtful to the environment of all these possibilities. Well, 46 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 1: I think if you look at the the rules, obviously 47 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: the Clean Power Plan, if it were to be overturned, 48 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: that could extremely hurtful, and then the methane rule and 49 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: the flaring of methane. And also you know now they're 50 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: they're looking at One of the things that they can 51 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: do right away is the Obama administration had basically said 52 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: you have to consider the effects of climate change in 53 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: all kinds of decisions. Now that's going to be reversed. 54 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: But I think one of I think that, as Pat said, 55 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: a lot of this stuff you don't really know if 56 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: it's going to happen. One of the things, though, that 57 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: you don't know, is that the effects of these actions, 58 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: if you look at them on an international in an 59 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: international sense, could really uh sort of slow the momentum 60 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: from the Paris Climate Accords and give countries like India 61 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: and I think less with China because I think they're 62 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: really moving forward for other reasons. It's abod a place 63 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: like India, which is really becoming one of the biggest 64 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: greenhouse gas emitters, could really take advantage and say, well, 65 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: the United States looks like they're not really too interested 66 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: in pursuing these climate change goals, and so I think, uh, 67 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: you know, we're an emerging economy and we're growing and 68 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 1: we're gonna I think we may have to put some 69 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: of that on the back burner. So that, to my mind, 70 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: is one of the fallouts that could really end up 71 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: hurting the climate change effort more than some of these 72 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: other things, because I think for a variety of reason 73 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: Pat touched on some of them, and I'll just add 74 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: another one. I think the economics of coal just are 75 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: pointing to the fact that it's not going to be 76 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: it's not going to come back. And to the extent 77 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: that you could talk about some possible new coal jobs, 78 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: I mean a lot of any new coal exploration will 79 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: likely be done with machines more than men. So think 80 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: that I think that's not going to have much of 81 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: an impact, But I have a concern about what it 82 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: means for the global effort. If you just take the 83 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: United States out of the kind of leadership role that 84 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: we had under the previous administration. Environmental groups and a 85 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: coalition of mostly Democratic states and cities have called President 86 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: Trump's Executive Order on Energy dangerous and illegal. The order 87 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: directs federal agencies to begin reconsidering and rolling back policies 88 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: implemented by the Obama administration to combat climate change and 89 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: fulfill American commitments under the Paris Climate Accords. We're talking 90 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: about the President's executive Order with Chuck Warren, a partner 91 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: at Cramer Levin, and Pat Parente, professor at Vermont Law School. 92 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 1: Pat We've been talking about how it's going to take 93 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: a bunch of agency action here UH to implement a 94 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 1: lot of the things the President says he wants to 95 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: do to roll back these regulations, and this coalition says 96 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: it's gonna sue UH over whatever it is that they do. 97 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: How much freedom of action do these federal agencies actually 98 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: have to roll back the rules that the Obama administration implemented. Well, 99 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: they've got to go through the same process they went 100 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: through to build up the rules, to to adopt the rules, 101 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: to repeal them. UM. And that's all governed by the 102 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: Administrative Procedure Act. It requires public notice and comment and 103 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: some instances that may require public hearings or meetings UM, 104 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 1: and a chance for people to weigh in and the 105 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:34,160 Speaker 1: response to their comments. It requires a factual basis, a 106 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: scientific basis, a legal basis. UM. So you know, you 107 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: can't snap your fingers and say, I don't like this rule, 108 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 1: I'm going to repeal it. UM. You've got to go 109 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 1: through a lengthy administrative process first, and then, as I 110 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: said earlier, that inevitably will be followed by litigation challenging 111 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: whatever the new rules that the Trump administration adopts UH, 112 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: that will have to go through addicial review process the 113 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: same way the Obama rules did. And that's why I 114 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 1: and others have said it will be years, frankly before 115 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: we get a final resolution, and that will probably have 116 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: to come from the United States Supreme Court. And who 117 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: knows who will be sitting there when and if these 118 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: rules finally make their way there, Chuck. The Clean Power 119 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: Plan was the cornerstone of President Obama's effort to combat 120 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: climate change. It is in court, and the Trump administration 121 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: is asking a federal appeals Court to put its review 122 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: of the CPP on hold. What will happen in that case, Well, actually, 123 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: I I don't know if they're going to put it 124 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: on hold, because effectively a couple of things can happen. 125 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: If they make a decision and uphold it, it's still 126 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: have to go to the Supreme Court because there's still 127 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: is that you know, a state that's in place and 128 00:07:55,360 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: so um it if they make it. If they make 129 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: a decision against it and say that you know, and 130 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: they want to send it back d p A, then 131 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: obviously E p A it will go back to the 132 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: PA and that will be a big defeat for the 133 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: environmental side. But I don't think it. I don't think 134 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: it makes much sense for the court to really put 135 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: it on hold now because even if they decided to 136 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: uphold it, it still has to go to the Supreme Court, 137 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: and it's still going to take a while before it's 138 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: uh decided. And I think one thing to point out 139 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: in this though, is that more than this rule, it's 140 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: the economics that have been driving things, and the use 141 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: of coal is weighed down because the price of natural 142 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: gas is low. We have an abundant source of natural 143 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,479 Speaker 1: gas that's going to continue, and a lot of utilities 144 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: have moved away from coal. I mean, the only thing 145 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: you get out of this is you'd run a few 146 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: more old cold plants longer. I don't know that that 147 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: would lead to any increase in jobs. It's probably not, 148 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: and it wouldn't really do anything visa the Independent. In fact, 149 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: we're pretty independent now and every all the forecast looks 150 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: like we're going to become even more independent. So I 151 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: think it's in one sense, the Clean Power Plan is 152 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: very important, but I think that the facts and the 153 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: economics are inexorably leading to where the Clean Power Plan 154 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 1: wants to go. Anyway, Well, speaking of the economics path, 155 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: you know, the the order, as we've been discussing, kind 156 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: of emphasizes coal and oil a lot in what the 157 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 1: President is trying to promote. What is the impact likely 158 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: to be of this order on their renewable energy industry, 159 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: which has been growing so much. I agree wholeheartedly with 160 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: Chuck's comments. You know, Trump can try to repeal administrative rules, 161 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: but he can't repeal the market, and he can't repeal science, 162 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: and both things are moving inexorably forward. And on the 163 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: science side, of course, it's it's all bad news. You know, 164 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: the effects of climate change are bad and getting worse 165 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: all the time. They're irreversible. The science is unmistakable, and 166 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 1: there's nothing he can say or do that will change 167 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: any of that. And on the economic side, UH, you 168 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 1: know it just to cite one factor here that you'll 169 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 1: be you'll recognize, Moody's Investor Services has just proposed projected 170 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: fifty six gigawatts of Midwest coal fire generation UH is 171 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: at serious risk of closure UM in the next few years. 172 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: So UM, the market is moving very strongly towards renewables. 173 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: They're still still big obstacles UH to full deployment of 174 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: renewable storage being the biggest one. But you know, there's 175 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: lots of work being done to overcome those obstacles, and 176 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: there's very, very every reason to believe that they will 177 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: be overcome. The grid is is modernizing and getting smarter 178 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: all the time, it's integrated all ready. We're seeing that 179 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: solar um is out producing every other fuel for electricity 180 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: in terms of job creation five to one. In fact, 181 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: solar is the fastest growing sector of the employment market 182 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: right now. So those are just a few of many 183 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 1: indicators that the Trump order is cutting against where the 184 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: market is going and certainly against what the science says 185 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 1: we need to do, uh to provide a safe sustainable 186 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: future and Americans, but for everybody on Earth. And on 187 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: that note, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast that wind and 188 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: solar energy will grow over the next three years even 189 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: without the Clean Power Plan. So, Chuck, do you see 190 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: some of these states that are taking on climate change 191 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: benefiting from the market on renewable energy and maybe at 192 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: the end of a few years they'll have the market cornered. Well, 193 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: I tune. I think that a good point in the 194 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 1: sense that California has been sprinting ahead on renewables. And 195 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: I just saw something where there's like over two hundred 196 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: thousand jobs just in California, uh, for in the renewable 197 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: energy sector. And I do think that the states that 198 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: move ahead in this area are going to be catching 199 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 1: the wave here of employment. And to put that in perspective, 200 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: the coal industree now employs something like sixty seven thousand jobs. 201 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,719 Speaker 1: It's obviously way down from what it was thirty years ago. 202 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 1: And if you just look at the state of California 203 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 1: and renewables, you're over two hundred thousand jobs. So you're 204 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: looking at what if you really want to do something 205 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: about jobs, you put the focus on renewable energy as Pat. 206 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with what Pat was saying completely. Chuck, Chuck, 207 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: thank you. That's that's uh, that's Chuck Warren, a partner 208 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: at Kramer, Levin and tell Us and Frankel, and Pat Parento, 209 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: a professor at Vermont Law School. Thanks very much for 210 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: being here. On Bloomberg Letter discussed the President's Executive Order 211 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: on Energy and Economic Growth.