1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: We consider what we do know, and that is tariffs 7 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: are in place. There's been so much uncertainty about the 8 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 2: President's tariff regime in Wall Street has reflected that at times. 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 2: When you think about the swoon that followed the President's 10 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: so called Liberation Day, more than ninety countries reciprocal tariffs 11 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: went into effect at midnight. The President was on Truth 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 2: Social to mark the occasion up late, writing it's midnight 13 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 2: in all caps, multiple exclamation points. Billions of dollars in 14 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: tariffs are now flowing into the United States of America. 15 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 2: Exclamation point to talk with just a moment from now 16 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: is Steven Meyer in the chair of the White House 17 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 2: Council of Economic Advisors about the. 18 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,199 Speaker 3: Impact of these tariffs. What might change. 19 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 2: We still have an extension with Mexico, we still have 20 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 2: a deal looming with China, and we've also got the 21 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 2: prospect of secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil that 22 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 2: would take effect tomorrow. One quick note I want to 23 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 2: mention just across the terminal if you're a Chat GPT user, 24 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 2: version five is out today. It's just going up this hour, 25 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 2: a more powerful GPT five model for coding and writing, 26 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 2: and it's coming out both paid and free versions to 27 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 2: users today. So you'll be probably hearing a lot about 28 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: Chat GPT five at the cocktail parties later on, with 29 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,559 Speaker 2: tariffs in mind, with the search for a new fed 30 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 2: share in mind. It's always a pleasure to bring in 31 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 2: Laura Davison, Bloomberg's deputy Washington Bureau Chief, as we wait 32 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: to hear from Steven Meyern at the White House. 33 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 3: Laura, it's great to see you. Two hundred days. 34 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 2: Is it just mirroor did the second hundred go by 35 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 2: faster than the first. 36 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 4: It was, it was quite speedy. Much of that was 37 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 4: dogged by all of these negotiations and tariff deals, ninety 38 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 4: deals and ninety days. We didn't quite get that. But 39 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 4: there are tariffs now in effect that he originally previewed 40 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 4: back in April. 41 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 2: Well, so we should probably detail some of this because 42 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: you're right. That was the line from Peter Navarro. Ninety 43 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 2: deals in ninety days, and we do have tariffs on 44 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 2: some ninety countries. But as the President sat a couple 45 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 2: of weeks ago, a letter is the same as a deal. 46 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 2: In many cases, these were simply imposed on nations without 47 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 2: there being any agreement. 48 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 4: Yes, although the President has left the door open that 49 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 4: there still could be negotiations. You know, Mexico, for example, 50 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 4: has sort of definitely navigated that China as well as 51 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,399 Speaker 4: is continuing to negotiate tariffs the Swiss and this whole 52 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 4: deal didn't turn out very well. They came to Washington 53 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 4: in last minute this week to try to negotiate down 54 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 4: that thirty nine percent wopping tariff that Trump had placed 55 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 4: on them and were unable to do so. But I 56 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 4: don't think this is the end of tariff talks. 57 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 2: Fifty on Brazil for political reasons. The President is concerned 58 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 2: about fifty on India as well. Half of that for 59 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 2: India has to do with a specific tariff on Russian oil. 60 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 2: But this White House is still hoping for a deal 61 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: with India, is it not? 62 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 4: They really are, And you see both sort of the 63 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 4: Russia piece of this, you know, Trump is potentially having 64 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 4: the summit with Putin, you know, as soon as next week, 65 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 4: and so you kind of see all of these different 66 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 4: geal political things sort of a domino effect. If they're 67 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 4: able to get a deal with Russia, that might ease 68 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 4: some of the India attensions with the Russian oil. So 69 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,239 Speaker 4: there's a lot of different things that they could still 70 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 4: try to navigate. The Indian trade delegation has been one 71 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 4: of the most dogged. They've been here for weeks on end. 72 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 4: I really thought they were going to get a deal, 73 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 4: and I think they still are holding out hope that they. 74 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 3: Can pushing back more than a lot of countries. 75 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: And we remember the Prime Minister Modi was the first 76 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 2: visit to this White House. It seemed like this pivot 77 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 2: to India was finally happening. But I guess you're telling 78 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 2: us that we should still allow some time. 79 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 4: What seems to be sort of the difference here is 80 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 4: that Trump has determined that China is too big to bully, 81 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 4: but that India is not. And they're trying to figure out, 82 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 4: you know, do they took a nice guy approach or 83 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 4: do they stand firm. That will remain to be seen 84 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 4: over the next several weeks about how they what kind 85 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 4: of deal they get. 86 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: So a lot of headlines flying, and boy, all you 87 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: have to do is look at truth social We could 88 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: pick our stories here. It's been pretty busy today, Laura. 89 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:14,839 Speaker 2: But I want to ask you about the FED chair. 90 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 2: With Christopher Waller emerging as a front runner. How quickly 91 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 2: did this happen? 92 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 3: What do we know? This is? 93 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 4: So Trump has been actively doing and his team have 94 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 4: been actively doing interviews with potential FED chair candidates. That's 95 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: really kicked up as Trump has become more disillusioned with J. 96 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 4: Powell at the head of the Central Bank. There's a 97 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 4: bunch of moving pieces here. Of that one, Trump has 98 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 4: said he's going to announce potentially as soon as tomorrow, 99 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 4: a temporary FED pick to fill the seat by Adriana 100 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 4: Kugler that is vacated starting tomorrow. This will be someone 101 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 4: kind essentially a caretaker for that seat. He also simultaneously 102 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 4: is looking at someone to replace J. Powell. Waller has 103 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 4: emerged as the front runner in those talks and has 104 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 4: you know, but he's already on the board, so he 105 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 4: doesn't need to be appointed to a seat. Plus there's 106 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 4: a third opening coming up. You know, potentially as soon 107 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 4: as May next year, if Powell steff off the board, 108 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 4: then there'll be a two year seat to fill. So 109 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 4: there's a lot of different pieces that they're looking for of, 110 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 4: you know, filling some of these empty fed seats that 111 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 4: are coming up, as well as finding someone whether it's 112 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,720 Speaker 4: someone adding to those seats or someone already on the 113 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 4: board like Waller, to be the next chair. 114 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: It's a curious approach because I can't figure out the 115 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: benefit of doing the fill in other than buying more time. 116 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 2: And maybe it's just as simple as that would try 117 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 2: to figure out who you want here. But I thought 118 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 2: it was the battle of the Kevins. This was Kevin Hassett, right. 119 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 2: But Christopher Waller, I guess, has had a pretty good 120 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 2: run here. 121 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: In the meantime. 122 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 4: He's had a pretty good run and he has a 123 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 4: lot of support from Wall Street itself. You know, he's 124 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 4: very much seen as the safest choice here. 125 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 3: Traders who turn people off. 126 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 4: One of the things is also look at the photos 127 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 4: of all of these people. Look who's the tallest person 128 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 4: has the strongest jaw line? 129 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 3: You know, you think strong central casting, you mean this. 130 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 4: Is you know, and that's one of the things that 131 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 4: helped j. Powell out in the searches, help Scott Bessett 132 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 4: when he became treasure secretary. If he was one of 133 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 4: the tallest people in the lineup. 134 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 3: That's hysterical. 135 00:05:58,080 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: Well, so, you know, I talked to Michael McKee about 136 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 2: this yesterday, the idea of a fill in on the 137 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 2: FED someone to your point, already had a couple of 138 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 2: boxes to check, but already in government, already confirmed the 139 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 2: Deputy Treasury Secretary Fowknder. 140 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 3: He's kind of about a central casting. 141 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 4: He's got so we should look at and he and 142 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 4: he would be easy to just pop into that job 143 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 4: for just a handful of months. He was easily confirmed 144 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 4: by the Senate when he came through, and you know 145 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 4: kind of has all the credentials. You know, he's a 146 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 4: strong Trump and best at ally, he would be someone 147 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 4: to kind of keep that seat warm, keep things in 148 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 4: the direction Trump wants to go until well he can 149 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 4: continue to play out his apprentice style fed chair pick right. 150 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 2: It really does this is like the grand finale of 151 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 2: the Apprentice. Maybe we could get the boardroom set back 152 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 2: together here. Secondary sanctions on Russia something I mentioned before 153 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 2: you leave. These would presumably take effect tomorrow. But now 154 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: we're also hearing about a potential meeting and in person 155 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 2: meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin. They say the 156 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 2: next few days. Could we see these two men together 157 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 2: this weekend and would the sanctions wait for that. 158 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 4: Trump has said that those sanctions are going to go 159 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 4: into effect regardless of this meeting planning as it comesw 160 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 4: you know, is they've said it could happen as soon 161 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 4: as next week. They still don't have a location. They 162 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 4: also a us HA said that they're only going to 163 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 4: do this if Zelenski is also there, So there's a 164 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 4: lot of moving pieces. You know, this may be a 165 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 4: Trump sort of win the next two weeks, in the 166 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 4: next couple of days. That slides much further than the actual. 167 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: Timelinearing is that if you think that once they're talking 168 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: and they're finalizing details to use the terminology of the Kremlin, 169 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 2: that there might be some reprief here, but we'll obviously 170 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 2: have to wait to find out until tomorrow. We don't 171 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 2: have a location in mind, right, there's no venue that's 172 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 2: been established. 173 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 4: Yet, not yet. The mid East has been thrown out 174 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 4: as sort of an option out there, but nothing has 175 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 4: been nailed down. 176 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 2: Fascinating, whether it's Saudi Arabia, UAE. This is going to 177 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 2: be quite a moment, Laura, and I'm sure Bloomberg will 178 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 2: be on the ground for it. It's great to have 179 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 2: you as always helping us set the table here on 180 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 2: the Thursday addition of Balance of Power, Laura Davison, our 181 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 2: deputy Bureau chief in Washington, d C. Who I'm sure 182 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 2: is heading straight back to the terminal because six more 183 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: stories have broken. It's that kind of day, well, day 184 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 2: two hundred to be more exact, and we want to 185 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 2: bring you straight to the White House on this two 186 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 2: hundredth day of the second Trump term for a conversation 187 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 2: that dovetails off everything we just discussed with Laura. Stephen 188 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 2: Myron has the President's ear when it comes to the economy. 189 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 2: He is chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. 190 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 2: And with us now from the North Lawn on what 191 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 2: is by the way, it's got to be Steven, the 192 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 2: most beautiful day of the year so far in Washington, 193 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 2: mister chairman, welcome back to Bloomberg. 194 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 3: TV and Radio. It's good to see you. 195 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 2: Day two hundred and the tariffs take effect. I guess 196 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 2: they'll start there is this it are we here? This 197 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 2: is the tariff regime. Realizing you've got an extension with Mexico, 198 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 2: you're working on a deal with China. These are the 199 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 2: numbers that we've been waiting for. Yes, will they stay 200 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: in place the way they are? 201 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 5: First of all, thank you for having me. It's great 202 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 5: to be back. Look, you know, I think that the 203 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,680 Speaker 5: restructuring of the global trading system that the President has 204 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 5: undertaken and successfully executed has been nothing short of historic. 205 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 5: We've got trade deals encompassing material teriff rates bringing in 206 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 5: large amounts of revenue with almost no retaliation from countries 207 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 5: that now entail about fifty five to sixty percent of 208 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 5: global GDP, and that brings in that that's going to 209 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 5: bring in trillions of dollars of revenue over a decade. 210 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 5: It creates very strong incentives for making stuff in the 211 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 5: United States, and the investment commitments that the President has 212 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 5: secured are going to do wonders for getting firms to 213 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 5: invest in America. 214 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 2: So if it's going to bring in trillions, then I 215 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 2: guess these are the numbers that will assume will be 216 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 2: in place until further notice. But I'm curious. I saw 217 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 2: the President's truth social last night is says it's midnight, 218 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: we're here. Do we have a sense of how much 219 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,439 Speaker 2: money the Treasury has inherited in the last thirteen hours 220 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 2: or so? 221 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 5: So I don't have a sense about what's happened in 222 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 5: the last thirteen hours or so. But as you know, 223 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,439 Speaker 5: in the last month, we saw a record print of 224 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 5: about thirty billion dollars in the month in the month 225 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 5: alone from tariffs, and that was before the higher rates 226 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 5: really set in. You know, the CBO did a study 227 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 5: when the One Big Beautiful Bill was under consideration in Congress, 228 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 5: finding that the total effect of the tariffs would about 229 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 5: three trillion dollars over the course of a decade. You know, 230 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 5: I think that tariff rates have moved a little bit 231 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 5: higher since then, and so my team is actually currently 232 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 5: crunching through the numbers right now as we speak, with 233 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 5: the higher with the new teriff rates. But I wouldn't 234 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 5: be surprised if the final number is closer to four 235 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 5: trillion dollars over a decade instead of three. 236 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 2: Fantastic. Is that something that you'll be able to make 237 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 2: public soon? When will we see that research? 238 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 1: Oh? 239 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 5: Yes, I mean I hope. So it's it's it's it's 240 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 5: in process right now. I've got several of several of 241 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 5: my of my staff working on it at the moment. 242 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 2: I love that getting a little peak behind the curtain 243 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:30,359 Speaker 2: here to the extent that we're curious about the economic 244 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 2: impact of tariffs, mister Chairman, you know there has been 245 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 2: a grand debate, and your administration is on one side 246 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 2: of it about whether tariffs are inflationary. Now that we 247 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 2: actually have the numbers, there's also been reference from yourself 248 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 2: and from the likes of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant about 249 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 2: a one time change in prices as opposed to an 250 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 2: inflationary trend. When will we know the impact of that 251 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 2: one time change? 252 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 5: Thanks? So, look, you're right there. There's been a lot 253 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 5: of conversation about this subject, and I think that the 254 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 5: few things are worth mentioning. One, we ran this experiment 255 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,599 Speaker 5: in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, we saw zero macroeconomically significant 256 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 5: evidence of tariff driven inflation. Then two, we've been running 257 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 5: higher tariffs in this administration since the very first day, 258 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 5: since January twentieth. We've now got several months of data, 259 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 5: and again there's just zero macroeconomically significant evidence of price 260 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 5: pressures from tariffs. Three, The overall policy mix is extremely disinflationary. 261 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 5: When you think about deregulation, when you think about incentives 262 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 5: for increased capital stock, increased labor supply from no taxes 263 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 5: on overtime, things like that, that's very disinflationary. The border 264 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 5: policies are very disinflationary as well, And I think that 265 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 5: people are underestimating the amount of service driven disinflation that's 266 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 5: in the pipeline. And I think when you look at it, 267 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 5: when you look at the housing market holistically, you get 268 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 5: a sense of that as well. So overall, we don't 269 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 5: expect significant inflation from the tariffs. And Secretary Beston is right. 270 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 5: If there were to materialize some inflation from tear, it 271 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 5: would be a one time price shift, price level shift, 272 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,439 Speaker 5: not an enduring trend in the same way that that 273 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 5: tax would cause that. And there have been many countries 274 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 5: throughout the world that have that taxes that change those 275 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 5: that taxes, and when they move them up or they 276 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 5: move them down, you get a price level shift. You 277 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 5: don't get a new inflation regime that last years. 278 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, then it becomes a question of you know, 279 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: who's actually paying for this beyond the specific importer who's 280 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 2: standing on the dock. 281 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 3: Here. 282 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 2: We're going to talk later with Stu Lenard Junior, the 283 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 2: force behind Stue Lenards, the chain of grocery stores up 284 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 2: in New York and Connecticut in the Northeast. It's a 285 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: really interesting conversation because he said that prices for him 286 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 2: are in fact costs are rising, and the more important 287 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 2: thing he said was he can't afford to absorb, but 288 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: he's got to pass it along to his customers. What 289 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 2: do you say to the CEO, specifically of a small 290 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 2: business who's experiencing this phenomenon. 291 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 5: What I would say is that adjustments are difficult, and 292 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 5: adjustments don't happen overnight, and in the fullness of time. 293 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 5: I have no doubt that the trees that we are 294 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 5: placing tariffs on will ultimately dare the burden of those tariffs, 295 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 5: either through lower prices or through another channel, like currencies 296 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 5: has happened in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen with China. Now 297 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 5: that's an argument in the fullness of time. In this 298 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 5: short run, there can be price volatility, right, we have 299 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 5: volatility in financial markets. We have now seen a little 300 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 5: bit of volatility in the real economy as well, and 301 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,959 Speaker 5: it wouldn't be surprising to me or to anybody else 302 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 5: if we saw volatility in prices as in consumer prices 303 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 5: as well. However, I think that's merely a short run 304 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 5: adjustment phenomenon. The incentives to make a profit, the incentive 305 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 5: the bedrock principles of a capitalistic economy, will mean that 306 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 5: folks likes do Leonard and others will find ways to 307 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 5: provide products to consumers for cheaper because that's what consumers want. 308 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 5: And they'll find ways to adjust their supply chains, to 309 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 5: adjust whom they're buying from, to take advantage of different 310 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 5: terif rates in different countries, and find ways to get 311 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 5: others to absorb those costs because they have an incentive 312 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 5: to do so. 313 00:13:58,400 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 3: They're going to have a lot of work to do. 314 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about the tariffs on chips 315 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 2: and semiconductors red headline on the terminal last evening, mister Chairman, 316 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 2: when the President said one hundred percent as he was 317 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 2: talking to reporters in the Oval office, but I realized 318 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 2: there are some very important exceptions here for chip designers 319 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 2: and ship makers who are actively investing and building in 320 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 2: the United States, and to my red that covers most 321 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 2: of the majors here, including TSMC, which is building in 322 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 2: Arizona and some other places. Who would this tariff actually 323 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: impact or will it not touch anyone other than a 324 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 2: foreign maker like say Huawei that isn't already selling here. 325 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, So not to get ahead of Secretary Latnik and 326 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 5: the other folks who are going to be designing this program, 327 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:50,239 Speaker 5: but I would be surprised if there weren't some guardrails 328 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 5: along around those criteria to make sure that companies were 329 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 5: doing the types of investments that warranted that type of 330 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 5: exemption that you just mentioned, right, And so our country's 331 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 5: investing to build their supply in the United States, are 332 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 5: they making good faith progress and good faith outlays that 333 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 5: are leading to actual, genuine increases in the productive capacity 334 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 5: of the United States. It's not enough to say, oh, 335 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 5: I'll build a factory and you know, a stick a 336 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 5: pick axe in the ground and then just leave it 337 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 5: there for ten years, collecting a terrification. There's to be 338 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 5: there's gonna be checks to make sure that good faith 339 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 5: efforts are made to actually expand production the United States. 340 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 5: And if that's happening, then that's exactly the outcome we want, 341 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 5: right Like, what we want is to increase domestic production 342 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 5: of critical components like semiconductors. 343 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 2: Just a minute left here, Chairman, I have to just 344 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 2: quickly ask you about the search for a new Federal 345 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: Reserve chair. Bloomberg is reporting today that Governor Waller, Christopher Waller, 346 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 2: is emerging as a top candidate. The President's advisors have 347 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 2: been very impressed with his approach to monetary policy. Are 348 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 2: you one of those advisors making that recommendation. 349 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 5: I think that Governor Waller has really built up really 350 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 5: impressive crack record in the last few years at the 351 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 5: FED with his predictions about inflation, about with his predictions 352 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 5: about where a FED policy needed to move to respond 353 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 5: to that inflation. And I think he's done himself, you know, 354 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 5: a big credit recently as well, you know, not succumbing 355 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 5: to the tariff derangement syndrome that many others throughout the 356 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 5: throughout the country, but particularly at the FED seem to 357 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 5: have succumbed to, you know. And he's he's done a 358 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 5: really good job having an independent voice, which I think 359 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 5: ultimately is proven correct that there isn't really much of 360 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 5: inflationary threat from tariffs that would that anyone should really 361 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 5: be concerned about, at least of all the Feds. 362 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like you're in his corner. That sounds 363 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 2: like Heyes, mister chairman. It's great to have you with us, 364 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 2: Stephen Myron from the North lawn of the White House. 365 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 2: We thank you for the insights as always, tariff derangement syndrome? 366 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 3: Did he just come up with that? 367 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 2: We'll assemble our political panel next Adam Hodge and Rick Davis, 368 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 2: who are on the way in. Only here on Bloomberg. 369 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 370 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,120 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 371 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Blueberg Business app. You 372 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 373 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 374 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 2: Day two hundred for Donald Trump. Remember everyone had a 375 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 2: special plan for Day one hundred. I don't think it 376 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: has quite the same impact, but it does coincide with 377 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 2: some pretty important news, including as we were just discussing 378 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 2: with Stephen Myron, really interesting conversation there with the Chairman 379 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 2: of the Council of Economic advisors. It coincides with the 380 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,360 Speaker 2: implementation of reciprocal tariffs. 381 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 3: They hit at midnight. 382 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 2: More than ninety countries waking up to a new reality 383 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:45,639 Speaker 2: this morning, as they are obviously being tariffed for goods 384 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: coming into the US. But we've also got the potential 385 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 2: if President says it happens no matter what, for secondary 386 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 2: sanctions against countries buying oil from Russia tomorrow, all along 387 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 2: with talk of an in person meeting between President Trump 388 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 2: and Vladimir poof This is a pretty interesting inflection point 389 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 2: for this administration, and we have a great panel. 390 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 3: To walk through some of it. 391 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Adam Hodge are here. 392 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 2: Rick is our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, 393 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,199 Speaker 2: and of course Adam are Democratic strategist Bully Pulpit International. 394 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,479 Speaker 3: Great to have both of you with us here. Adam. 395 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 2: The first two hundred days of the Trump administration has 396 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: begun a reordering of our economy. We were just talking 397 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:29,120 Speaker 2: about this new tariff regime with Steven Myron, who had 398 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 2: nothing but good things to say about it. The money 399 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 2: that's coming into the country, the growth that he says 400 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 2: will come from this we're making the playing field even again. 401 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 3: What's the problem with that? 402 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 6: Well, I think one of the problems the President has 403 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 6: put a gun to the head of the global economy 404 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 6: and said everybody get online or you're going to face 405 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 6: higher prices. But I think what was striking to me 406 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 6: is that you had official from a Republican White House 407 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 6: acknowledge that they're raising taxes on the American and even 408 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 6: Ran Paul today was taking the White House you know 409 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 6: a little bit the task for now being the party 410 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 6: of raising taxes on working families. And I think that is, yes, 411 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 6: is a one time hike on some of the prices 412 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 6: that you don't think this may compound month over month. 413 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 6: But the President ran on lowering costs for the American people, 414 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 6: and you compound that with some of the actions on 415 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 6: immigration which reduced the labor supply, some of the other 416 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 6: policy measures that they put in place, and it's a 417 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 6: bit of an opportunity for Democrats, I think, to make 418 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,679 Speaker 6: the case that the President has broken his promise to 419 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 6: lower costs on working families. And that's what I think 420 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 6: you'll hear from Democrats going forward. 421 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, how are you thinking about this today? 422 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 2: Rick? Because the President would tell you need a little 423 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 2: bit of pain for a long term gain. 424 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 3: This is years in the making. 425 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 2: I need a minute, I need some space to reset 426 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 2: the playing field. Most every major economist tells US's going 427 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 2: to send prices higher. 428 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, I think. 429 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 7: They've leaned in on this notion. Then change is going 430 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 7: to have an effect, sometimes good, sometimes negative. And you 431 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 7: also hear at the same time, hey, we've just raised billions, 432 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 7: hundreds of billions of dollars of new revenue not targeted 433 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 7: to be used for anything in particular. Right now, we 434 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 7: don't know what that revenue is going to go too, 435 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 7: but you know, potentially trillions over ten years, offsetting some 436 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 7: of the debate about the massive deficits that they're running 437 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 7: up with the big beautiful bill. So yeah, I think 438 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,959 Speaker 7: it's a pretty practical conversation about whether or not we 439 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 7: can survive economically in a tearf regime that would actually 440 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 7: help expand the US wealth and enter US into what 441 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,959 Speaker 7: Donald Trump calls the Golden Age. And so as that 442 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 7: debate wages on, you got to admit these first two 443 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 7: hundred days have been, you know, a drum beat of 444 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 7: activity that has restructured not just trade, all around the world, 445 00:20:56,320 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 7: but our global relationships are domestic, you know, industries, healthcare, education, 446 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 7: the legal system. You know, it's phenomenal when you think 447 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,879 Speaker 7: of the breadth of what this president's done in two 448 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 7: hundred days. Whether you like what he's done or not, 449 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 7: he's done a lot. 450 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the President says on truth social atom tariffs 451 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 2: are flowing into the USA at levels not thought even possible. 452 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 3: But tariffs don't flow into the USA. Don't we pay them? 453 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 6: That's right, Yes, no, absolutely, the Americans are paying them. 454 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 6: You know, I'm not sure how much wine you're importing 455 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 6: from France these days, Joe, but you know the price 456 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 6: of them are going up fifteen percent. And that is true. 457 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 6: Four companies like Ford Right who are now going to 458 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 6: see and have been beating the drum about the pain 459 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 6: that it will cost to the bottom line from how 460 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 6: having to import steal and aluminum from Canada as part 461 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 6: of our North American supply chain at significantly higher prices. 462 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 6: And there's no question that that eventually will lead to 463 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 6: higher prices for one fifty or for other commodities. I 464 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,959 Speaker 6: think you raised the example of Stu Leonard's you know, 465 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 6: fabulous grocery chain for my old high school days. You 466 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 6: can't get bananas from a whole lot of other places 467 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 6: in the US. 468 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:15,399 Speaker 2: Right. 469 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 6: There are goods that are just not capable of coming 470 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 6: from other places that we just cannot make here in 471 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 6: the US or don't produce here for various reasons. 472 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,919 Speaker 8: And that's going to lead to higher prices for the 473 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 8: American people. 474 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 6: And I think that is going to be a tough 475 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 6: pill for the American voter to swallow, especially as you 476 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:33,400 Speaker 6: head into the midterms. 477 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 2: Yes, so Stu Leonard Jr. Is going to join us 478 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 2: later on Rick and he was making the point here. 479 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 2: Everybody loves Stu Leonards. I guess that he says costs 480 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 2: her up and I can't afford it. I need to 481 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 2: start passing it on. If we start seeing that more 482 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: and more in mainstream news coverage, what does that do 483 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 2: to the argument coming out of the White House. 484 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm not even sure that you need more mainstream 485 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 7: news coverage. I mean, when you look at consumer surveys, 486 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:59,640 Speaker 7: my favorite things to study. These are grumpy consumers. They're 487 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 7: not with the higher costs that they're paying. They expected 488 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 7: lower grocery costs, expected lower gas costs. There is a 489 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,159 Speaker 7: lot that isn't fulfilled in the promise of the Trump administration. 490 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 7: We talked about how much he's doing, but that piece 491 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 7: of it right now, especially as you start to look 492 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,719 Speaker 7: across the horizon at the twenty twenty six midterm elections, 493 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 7: they got to fix that. Because consumers vote on their pocketbook. 494 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 7: We hear over and over and over again constantly telling 495 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,959 Speaker 7: you know, elected officials, this is what matters most. All 496 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 7: this other stuff, window dressing. They're not going to decide 497 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 7: on who to vote for because of the tariffs. They're 498 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 7: going to decide on that banana cost, yes, and so 499 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 7: we're still in a banana economy. We've got to constantly 500 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 7: remind ourselves of that. And right now, unless something changes, 501 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 7: you know, you got a bunch of grumpy consumers looking 502 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 7: at this administration that maybe we need change. 503 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: In Congress, there are two posts I want to ask 504 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 2: you about on this two hundredth day. President didn't get 505 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 2: a lot of sleep last night. Midnight post on the teriffs, 506 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 2: I guess would be evidence of that, but they kept. 507 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 3: Rolling in this morning. 508 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 2: There are two that jump off the page or the 509 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 2: screen or whatever you have here. One is about Intel, 510 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 2: President writes the CEO of Intel is highly conflicted and 511 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 2: must resign immediately. There is no other solution to this problem. 512 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 2: Thank you for your attention to this problem. Exclamation point. 513 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 2: And this follows allegations that the new CEO not so 514 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 2: new CEO, is tied to the PRC separate Trump post 515 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 2: truth social He says, now that the nuclear arsenal being 516 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 2: created by Iran has been totally obliterated, it is very 517 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 2: important to me to me that all Middle Eastern countries 518 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 2: join the Abraham Accords. This will ensure peace in the 519 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 2: Middle East. Does this president see him as the president himself, 520 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,200 Speaker 2: as the president of the world Adam, as well as 521 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 2: the chairman of every board. 522 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 6: I mean that certainly seems like it. I mean, I 523 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 6: would just take a step back. If you had a 524 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 6: democratic presid calling for the firing of the CEO of 525 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 6: a major US company, Republicans would be screaming from the 526 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 6: rooftops about a socialist republic, about socialism run amuck in 527 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 6: the country, the president picking winners and losers in the 528 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 6: business community. 529 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 8: I mean, that's what we're talking about here. 530 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 6: And I think it is something that I think people 531 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 6: shot across the bow for corporate America. And I don't 532 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,680 Speaker 6: think it's going to lead a whole lot of businesses 533 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 6: feeling comfortable about the decisions that they make and the 534 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 6: choices they make going forward. 535 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,719 Speaker 3: Is this just trumpy and Trump? What do you make 536 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 3: of these? 537 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 7: Yes, Donald Trump xenophobia, I mean, come on, I mean, 538 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 7: like that shouldn't surprise anybody at this stage, whether it's 539 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 7: Mexico or China or any other country that he sees 540 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 7: as a blacklisted country. But I think this point you 541 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 7: make about does he see himself as president of the 542 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 7: world is really fascinating because, like he came to office 543 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 7: where people thought, oh, they're rolling up the carpet, we're 544 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 7: not going to do business with anybody else. And he's 545 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 7: been arguably the most integral he did president on a 546 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 7: global scale in our lifetimes. And when you look at 547 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 7: all the bilateral activity he's done trade, I mean, like 548 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 7: you don't have to like what he's done, but he 549 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 7: has been more active on a global front, and it's 550 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 7: been based on the US is the most powerful nation 551 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 7: in the world, both militarily and economically, and we're going 552 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 7: to flex our power around the world. So you know, 553 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 7: I think the last time I saw a president like 554 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 7: this and he's my favorite president. So I don't want 555 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 7: to compare the two. But Teddy Roosevelt understood the world, 556 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 7: understood our role in the world, and he carried that 557 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 7: big stick. And Donald Trump, in his own kind of 558 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 7: different way, I think, sees himself the same way. 559 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 3: What do you think about that, Adam. 560 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 2: When he tries to influence developments in other nations, it's 561 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 2: almost every day either on truth social or in front 562 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 2: of cameras and microphones. 563 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 6: I mean it's the way that Donald Trump sees himself 564 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 6: and his ego. 565 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 8: I mean, he's himself as president of the world. 566 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 6: And look, the president of the United States often does 567 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 6: carry that big stick, that influence and we are able 568 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 6: through either the might and being right on a greater 569 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 6: range of issues to being the world's superpower and who 570 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 6: helped shape the way the world works. 571 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 8: That's the privilege that the president has to bear in. 572 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 6: So I think that's something that I think you should 573 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,959 Speaker 6: not be surprised at necessarily, and I think Trump, like 574 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:28,639 Speaker 6: with most things, is going to take it to the extreme. 575 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 2: See the president on the roof the other day, that 576 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 2: it's walking around the colonnade on the roof. Is there 577 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 2: going to be a second floor on the west wing 578 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 2: by the three hundredth day. 579 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 3: What's going on over here? 580 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, no, it wouldn't surprise me. I think we're into 581 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 7: a redevelopment phase for the White House. I mean, obviously 582 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 7: the ballroom's getting most of its attention. But he wasn't 583 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,359 Speaker 7: on a roof to talk about the ballroom is so yeah, no, 584 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 7: I mean he's and maybe someone told him no president 585 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 7: has ever been on the roof of the White House. 586 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 3: So boom, let's go there. 587 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 5: He is. 588 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 2: If you're with us on YouTube or bloom or a 589 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 2: TV he was describing, he said, something beautiful with that 590 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 2: Handjester that he's working on. Maybe it's skylights or something 591 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 2: at him. Maybe they are going to put the swimming 592 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 2: pool in up there. We do understand the gold leaf 593 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 2: is being added to the ceiling of the Oval Office. 594 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 2: Will this White House look different forever because of this man? 595 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 8: I mean no question. 596 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 6: I think, you know, look at what's happened at the 597 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,439 Speaker 6: Disgrace in the Rose Garden. Not I'm I'm biased, but 598 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:29,679 Speaker 6: I just think it's totally changing the face of the 599 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 6: way that. 600 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 8: The White House looks. And this has happened throughout history. 601 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 6: I think though that Democrats can't get sidetracked into some 602 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 6: of these issues and talking. 603 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 8: About a ballroom or the rose gardener everything else. 604 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 6: Sure, Laser focused on the unpopularity of the Big Beautiful Bill, 605 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 6: and that's where I think you'll see Democrats if they're smart, 606 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 6: that's what the focus on because it is a lead 607 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 6: balloon on the president's popularity with the American people, with 608 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 6: the voters that put him in the Oval office. And 609 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 6: I think that's where you think Democrats should focus on 610 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 6: going forward. 611 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 2: Sure, I just think it's fun for us to see 612 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 2: guys to talk about Adam. Thank you so much in 613 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Adam Hodge, Bloomberg Politics contributors. We'll get to 614 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 2: the roadshow on the Big Beautiful Bill next time we talk. 615 00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 616 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 617 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 618 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 619 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.