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Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into betting pros. It is

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Speaker 1: the college football preview show for week ten. I am

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Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and look at those two beautiful faces. They

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Speaker 1: are back in action, at least on the Wednesday edition.

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Speaker 1: It is four nice Trim Thorp Ku on the Twitter,

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Speaker 1: Mike Ferrell m Ferrel Sports with two l's. They are

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Speaker 1: back together on this show. But Bogman isn't because he's

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Speaker 1: out here with me and Phoenix World Series for me yesterday,

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Speaker 1: World Series for him today. God knows what happens when

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Speaker 1: this show posts, if we do some more, but we're

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Speaker 1: talking about some c FF, some action going on as

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Speaker 1: we're recording this, some snowball action. Everything is going down.

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Speaker 2: Thora.

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Speaker 1: It's good to have you back on the Wednesday seat here,

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Speaker 1: my friend.

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Speaker 2: It's great to be here. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: And like you're mentioning maxronon there's a blizzard going on

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Speaker 3: Classic Maxtions. It feels like college football is ramping up

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Speaker 3: now to the home stretch show.

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Speaker 1: Feeling good, Mike, how are we feeling after week nine?

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Speaker 1: How did it treat us good?

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Speaker 4: I know Thor's happy about the Kansas Wayne and a

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Speaker 4: lot of the Fansterbury unhappy. But we've got some we

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Speaker 4: got some serious Uh, we're gonna have some serious land interest.

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Speaker 4: Don't come on the better back up.

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Speaker 2: Don't guess light me this early into the episode. Please.

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Speaker 1: By the way, can we talk about we talked about

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Speaker 1: the software, we talked about or you were excited I

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Speaker 1: was at the World Series. We talked about the guy

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Speaker 1: that was behind home plate that had the it wasn't

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Speaker 1: a fair catch sign. You gotta love that guy. That

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Speaker 1: guy's a hero, demand's a legend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and and bringing awareness to one of the core

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Speaker 3: issues facing our society today. Was it a fair catcher?

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Speaker 3: Was it not a fair catcher? Cooper Deutron? It certainly

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Speaker 3: was not. Shouldn't have been called? I was should have

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Speaker 3: won that game?

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Speaker 4: They lost that game, and now Brian Farns is gone,

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Speaker 4: So I mean, really it was probably the right ball

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Speaker 4: for the long term success at By.

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Speaker 1: The way, it's appropriate because it was one of the

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Speaker 1: worst ump World Series games in a long time, with

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Speaker 1: some of the worst calls of all time. So just

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Speaker 1: like appropriate, we have all that, but no big deal,

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Speaker 1: not a jolted diamondback expanalon or anything like that. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the week we got a bunch of games.

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Speaker 1: We got ten games for you, some televised action. Let's

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Speaker 1: see where the bets are for our Week ten preview.

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Speaker 1: Let's kick this bad boy off as we go to Texas.

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Speaker 1: Kansas State going up against Texas Horns are a four

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Speaker 1: point favorite. Cash and tickets are currently on Texas thore.

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Speaker 1: What play is there for you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this was one of my bets on the Sunday Show.

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Speaker 3: And a thing I bought a ticket on on Sunday

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Speaker 3: was Kansas State. I think I got five or five

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Speaker 3: and a half something like that. Numbers coming down to

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Speaker 3: where it should be. The opener was bad when it

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Speaker 3: opened at six, six and a half something like that.

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Speaker 3: My line on this game, like I'm mentioning it coming

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Speaker 3: down to reality right now, is.

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Speaker 2: Texas by four. So we're right in line with that.

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Speaker 3: But I feel like this is a really good spot

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Speaker 3: for Kansas State here to potentially make a bid for

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Speaker 3: an upset Malik Murphy last game against BYU, they had

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Speaker 3: restrict their play on him. They weren't letting him do

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Speaker 3: very much. We'll see if they open it up here

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Speaker 3: against Kansas State. But kids is a pretty good defense,

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Speaker 3: so you know, I don't know how that would end

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Speaker 3: up working out. Jonathan Brooks is in play here for

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Speaker 3: you know, you're looking at player props. He would be

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Speaker 3: the one Texas offensive player. I'm confident in Texas thirteenth

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Speaker 3: in rushing marginal explosiveness, that's the bugaboo of Kansas State's

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Speaker 3: defense at one hundred and fourteenth.

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Speaker 2: But you can take.

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Speaker 3: Advantage of Kansas State a little bit through the air

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Speaker 3: with the efficiency stuff. It's just I don't know that

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Speaker 3: Malie Murphy can provide it. He certainly wasn't against byu kNs.

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Speaker 3: You also have here the immovable force against the whatever.

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Speaker 3: The other thing would be where the immovable force with

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Speaker 3: the Kansas State rushing offense, which is, you know, objectively

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Speaker 3: top ten in the nation qualitatively against the Texas run defense,

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Speaker 3: which you can say the same about whoever wins in

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Speaker 3: that one off, they will win this game out right.

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Speaker 3: I believe I think Kansas State is live here. If

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Speaker 3: you're still getting four, I would still fire at four.

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Speaker 1: And that's what was on the Betting Pros app If

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Speaker 1: people want to check that out betting pros dot com,

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Speaker 1: you can check the odds that has all the books

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Speaker 1: and you can check where the best are now. I

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Speaker 1: did say that the cash is on Texas, just barely

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Speaker 1: tickets a little bit more in favor of Texas, but heavy,

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Speaker 1: heavy percentage of cash and tickets are on the under.

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Speaker 1: So Mike, outside of the spread, obviously, if you have

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Speaker 1: a spread play, is there a total play that you

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Speaker 1: like here? The money heavy on the under.

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Speaker 4: I'm on the under too. I think it's going to

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Speaker 4: be a low scoring game. I think there's two solid

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Speaker 4: defenses here. You know, Milie Murphy, we talked about him

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Speaker 4: quite a bit on the Saturday Show about what I

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Speaker 4: saw in high school and what he is, and you know,

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Speaker 4: an unwilling runner, even though he's a pretty big and

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Speaker 4: athletic kid. You know, I thought they would crowd the

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Speaker 4: box and take away the run and they can throw

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Speaker 4: a little bit more. And they didn't let him throw

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Speaker 4: down the field very much at all at all. So,

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Speaker 4: you know, Sark I think knows the limitations of his quarterback.

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Speaker 4: I know he's going to try to win with the

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Speaker 4: run game. So that's I see a slower paced game

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Speaker 4: from Texas. Kansas State, you know, doesn't play at a

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Speaker 4: high pace either. So I'm looking at the under here.

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Speaker 4: If I had to pick a side, Bill, I would

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Speaker 4: take Kansas State just because I think Texas is susceptible

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Speaker 4: to an upset potentially with are Homer on the road,

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Speaker 4: because when you were I think there's a discernible difference

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Speaker 4: between when yours a Malie Murphy and Arch Manning. We

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Speaker 4: were hoping to see him at the end of the

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Speaker 4: game when they were icing it. Give me Kansas State,

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Speaker 4: but I'm leaning towards the unders my real play.

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Speaker 1: How would you, my college football fans, like to put

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros College Football Podcast betting group and you

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Speaker 1: can make your picks all season long, and if you're

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Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros. Check it out today.

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Speaker 1: All you got to do is make a hundred picks

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Speaker 1: a out the season to qualify. So if you're doing

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Speaker 1: it now, you better get on it. Jump in nout

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Speaker 1: better win anyone else will say, even if you're not

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Speaker 1: quite challenging in this time, go in and put your

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Speaker 1: bets down, see how you are, and test yourself into

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Speaker 1: you would do and then you can get going with it.

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Speaker 1: So check it out today on betting Pros. Next game up,

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Speaker 1: we've got Texas A and M at ole Miss best

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Speaker 1: odds currently got Ole Miss as a three point favorite

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Speaker 1: cash and tickets. They're on A and M though, So

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Speaker 1: thor where is your play? What do you like in

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Speaker 1: out of this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Little surprise this one came down since since the opener.

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Speaker 3: H the opener was right in line with where my

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Speaker 3: number is. My number is Ole Miss minus four point two.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, that that money in the days since Monday

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Speaker 3: and Tuesday, it's it's pulled the line towards A and M.

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Speaker 3: All right before I was more on the fence. Now

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Speaker 3: I'm I'm going more towards the old Miss side. I

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Speaker 3: don't love this matchup for Texas A and M. Like

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Speaker 3: you can throw a bit on Old Miss. But we've

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Speaker 3: talked speaking of restrictor play, which I was mentioning with

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Speaker 3: Maligu Murphy. Max Johnson has had those clamped on both,

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Speaker 3: just you know from his own game, like the way

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Speaker 3: he plays is sort of risk averse, but also the

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Speaker 3: way Bobby Patrino is calling plays as well. They've just

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Speaker 3: become more conservative. Can you keep up? If the old

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Speaker 3: mistrain starts or the Old Miss rock Star's going downhill?

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Speaker 3: They start scoring points the tempo stuff, and then Texa

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Speaker 3: A and M has to get back in.

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Speaker 2: The game whatever through throwing.

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Speaker 3: That's one thing that I question after having seen Max

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Speaker 3: Johnson here these last couple of weeks. He's not going

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Speaker 3: to do anything debilitating to destroy your odds of winning.

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Speaker 3: But he's also in a game like this, I don't

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Speaker 3: know if he gives you sort of this side on

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Speaker 3: PC you need in a gunfight here.

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Speaker 2: If this number down to three, I'm I'm.

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Speaker 1: On ole Miss, Mike, what do you think? What's your

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Speaker 1: play here? If totals or sides.

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Speaker 4: I'm on ole Miss too. You know, Texas A and

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Speaker 4: I'm pretty good against the run. They get a good

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Speaker 4: front and Ole Miss likes to run the football. But

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Speaker 4: I think this is a situation where if Old Miss

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Speaker 4: does fall to nine, they have no way to get back,

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Speaker 4: and if they fall down by ten, it's gonna get

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Speaker 4: worse for them. I'm not saying it's gonna be a blowout,

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Speaker 4: but that offense is bad. You know, Jimo came out

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Speaker 4: last week said, I don't know why our offense is bad. Well,

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Speaker 4: you know anyone, Petrino, you know working together to call

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Speaker 4: this offense, and I can tell you why it's bad.

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Speaker 4: You've got amazing playmakers and you're not utilizing them. I mean,

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Speaker 4: a name Smith as fast as heck. Evan Stewart's an

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Speaker 4: elite player, even got a big tight end that's related

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Speaker 4: to your quarterback. And you guys aren't stretching the field

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Speaker 4: at all. It's very conservative. Everybody can keep you in front,

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Speaker 4: so Old Miss can't defend against the pass. Well, they

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Speaker 4: ten against Texas A and M because you're not gonna

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Speaker 4: go the ball downfield. So give me Old Miss and

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Speaker 4: this one I think they, you know, eventually wear down

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Speaker 4: the A and M front when this one maybe by

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Speaker 4: seven to ten.

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Speaker 1: Let's move over to Notre Dame Clemson. This one is interesting.

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame is a three point favorite. They're on the road,

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Speaker 1: they're at Clemson. Even though it's kind of a close number,

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Speaker 1: we've got pretty definitive at least from where the cash

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Speaker 1: and the tickets are as we're recording this definitively Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame and the under. It's pretty heavy on all sides

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Speaker 1: of that, tickets and cash. So thor what do you

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Speaker 1: think about this? We talked I believe we talked about

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Speaker 1: this one on the Sunday early line. Look, I don't

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Speaker 1: recall if there was a whole lot of change. So

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Speaker 1: where are you at on this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Notre Dame. Notre Dame.

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Speaker 3: For me, that that three number I think is pretty

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Speaker 3: juicy there as far as that goes, And I probably

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Speaker 3: lean the under as well. But yeah, I like Notre

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Speaker 3: Dame in the handicap just objectively the better team. They

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Speaker 3: can do more things to beat you. I like their

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Speaker 3: defense as p plus Notre Dame six defense Clemson nine.

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Speaker 3: And obviously the discrepancy is bigger on offense nineteen for

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame thirty second against Clemson. I don't even know

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Speaker 3: if Clemson's would be thirty second qualitatively for me, But yeah,

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Speaker 3: like and then you know, again, like Lake games, if

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Speaker 3: you need kay Klubnik and that Clemson offense to now

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Speaker 3: drive you down the field in order to pull ahead,

219
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Speaker 3: or if you need it for a cover backdoor cover,

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Speaker 3: I don't know about that against his Notre Dame defense,

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Speaker 3: especially an awesome Notre Dame pass defense. Eighth in passing

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Speaker 3: success rate on defense for Notre Dame, seventh in marginal explosiveness,

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Speaker 3: fourth in opposing completion rate allowed. Notre Dame pass defense,

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Speaker 3: very very good. They also can slow down your running game,

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Speaker 3: of course, can Will Shipley hit any long ones on

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame. Notre Dame hat shrown a propensity to give

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Speaker 3: up some explosive runs. They're eighty seventh in that metric,

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Speaker 3: but Clemson's offense is only sixty fifth. The Notre Dame

229
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Speaker 3: offense matches up better with the Clemson defense than vice versa.

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Speaker 3: It's a better team. I'm going with Notre Dame in

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Speaker 3: this one, Micah. These a bunch of squares. Everything's heavy

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Speaker 3: on Notre Dame. Every on the under what do you

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Speaker 3: think you know?

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Speaker 4: Everything does point towards Notre Dame. Here, I'm going to

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Speaker 4: go the opposite of what everything logically I'm thinking, because

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Speaker 4: it's the four and four Clemson team, they're not very good.

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Speaker 4: Dada's fighting with fans on his radio show and going

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Speaker 4: viral over this little defensiveness and you know, making good points.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, he absolutely Tyler from Spartanburg got

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Speaker 4: absolutely destroyed, as he should. But still, I mean, it's

241
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Speaker 4: a four and fourteen and Dado can talk about twelve,

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Speaker 4: you know, ten plus one seasons and two national championships

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Speaker 4: all this other stuff. But still they're at home and

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Speaker 4: they're getting three and it's Clemson, and I still, I

245
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Speaker 4: know this isn't Clemson from you know, Deshaun Watson's days

246
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Speaker 4: and Trevor Lawrenson's days and Kay club nickspar from that,

247
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Speaker 4: the offense doesn't look good, But I just think pride.

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Speaker 4: I think Pride is going to play a factor here,

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Speaker 4: at least I'm gambling on it. So I'm going to

250
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Speaker 4: take the three points. I'm going to take Dabdo rallying

251
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Speaker 4: his troops for a big victory here or at least

252
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Speaker 4: to cover something about this just tells me that despite

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Speaker 4: the matchup disadvantage that Clemson has, you know, at home,

254
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Speaker 4: after all this garbage, Dabo is going to get this

255
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Speaker 4: team ready and they're going to pull it up. So

256
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Speaker 4: it's just a hunch. It's like not really good gambling logic.

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Speaker 4: That's just a hunch. ID I would lean under too.

258
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Speaker 4: I think it's going to be sort of a run

259
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Speaker 4: on into football game. But I'm taking Clemson, all right.

260
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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 1: Some dissent. All right, let's move through next game up here.

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Speaker 1: We've got Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma is an eight

263
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Speaker 1: point favorite. Now we've got tickets in cash on Oklahoma State,

264
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Speaker 1: which is pretty it's pretty significant on Oklahoma State on

265
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Speaker 1: the plus money here, but the under as far as

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Speaker 1: cash goes, is hardcore. But it's split on the ticket.

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Speaker 1: So we're still maybe waiting for There's not a line

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Speaker 1: that hasn't hit. There's waiting for some big money, some

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Speaker 1: big cash and big tickets. Everything is going down. But

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Speaker 1: thor what do you think here? Oklahoma Oklahoma State? I'm

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Speaker 1: seeing different lines everywhere because I'm also seeing five and

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Speaker 1: a half line. But I saw one of the best

273
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Speaker 1: lines on betting pros out there at what did I

274
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Speaker 1: tell you guys? At eight? So what do you think

275
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Speaker 1: on this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: We got some discrepancy. I got an Oklahoma ticket on Sunday.

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Speaker 3: I think it was at six.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's opening line. I'm sorry, opening line. It is

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Speaker 1: five and a half. Right now, you can get a

281
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Speaker 1: plus six in Oklahoma State. It was the opening line

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Speaker 1: that was eight.

283
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Speaker 2: My apology.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, maybe I should have waited, but I still

285
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Speaker 3: do like Oklahoma. You know, I'm surprised that, well, maybe

286
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Speaker 3: I shouldn't be surprised so many people are on Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the one trepidation I have here is that

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Speaker 3: Bedlam games have been played pretty close, and we have

289
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Speaker 3: seen upsets in this series.

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Speaker 2: But what I like about Oklahoma, you know, in this game.

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Speaker 3: Is you're able to buy low about as low a

292
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Speaker 3: price as you're going to get on Oklahoma coming off

293
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Speaker 3: that loss against Kansas, and you're selling way way high

294
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Speaker 3: on Oklahoma State following this four game winning streak that

295
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Speaker 3: they're on, and you can do them and can junction

296
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Speaker 3: of each other. So basically you're getting the line value there.

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Speaker 3: If it's beneath the touchdown, certainly, if it's beneath six,

298
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Speaker 3: that's a fire point for me.

299
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Speaker 2: You look at the matchup. So the guy who really

300
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Speaker 2: has spurred.

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma State's turnaround is the running back they have Oli Gordon,

302
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Speaker 3: who's really really good, you know.

303
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Speaker 2: I mean, like you look at some of the game.

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Speaker 3: Logs, just ludicrous numbers that he's putting up. The problem

305
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Speaker 3: for Oklahoma State here is Oklahoma has a really really

306
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Speaker 3: good run defense. So Oklahoma's run defense twenty is success rate,

307
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Speaker 3: there's seventh in opportunity rate, number one in stuff rate,

308
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Speaker 3: thirty seventh marginal efficiency that Oklahoma State offense. They are

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Speaker 3: number one in rushing marginal explosiveness. But again, you're running

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Speaker 3: into a really really good run defense in this game. Now,

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Speaker 3: I know that Kansas last week ran on Oklahoma. You know,

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Speaker 3: you don't have to remind me of that, the world's

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Speaker 3: foremost Jayhawk fan, I will remind people, though that game

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Speaker 3: was played in a quasi bond soon where they had

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Speaker 3: to then do the I shouldn't say that that might

316
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Speaker 3: be a bit overstating it, but you know, in driving

317
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Speaker 3: rain for large portions of it, and where they had

318
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Speaker 3: the lightning delay and whatnot, I don't know if that

319
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Speaker 3: was what the Kansas players had better grip on the turf.

320
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Speaker 3: I'm not really sure. Oklahoma's run defense obviously played down

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Speaker 3: in that game, but prior to that have been very

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Speaker 3: very good.

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Speaker 2: I at least think that they can prevent only.

324
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Speaker 3: Gordon from just the usual you know, I'm going over

325
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Speaker 3: two hundred again, that sort of a thing, and that

326
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Speaker 3: would put a ton of pressure on Alan Bowman and

327
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Speaker 3: what is not very sexy Oklahoma State passing offense to

328
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Speaker 3: keep pace with the Oklahoma offense. And I think this

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Speaker 3: is a really good matchup for Oklahoma's offense. Oklahoma, they

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Speaker 3: liked the pass last week.

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Speaker 2: They didn't.

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Speaker 3: We talked about that on the Sunday Show. It was

333
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Speaker 3: weird that they were staying away from the air. My

334
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,400
Speaker 3: theory on that was that it was because of the rain,

335
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Speaker 3: perhaps because of Dylan Gabriel's hands that he wasn't getting

336
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Speaker 3: a good grip on it, because the win wasn't whipping

337
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 3: around enough where they should have skewed their game plan

338
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:17,680
Speaker 3: that far, especially because Kansas's pass defense can be had.

339
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Speaker 3: But in this game, Oklahoma's passing off and despite that

340
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Speaker 3: down game, there's still sixth passing success rate, fifth marginal efficiency,

341
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Speaker 3: fifty second explosion, seventh in completion percentage, same categories for

342
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Speaker 3: the Oklahoma State passing defense fifty third, sixty fourth, hundred

343
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Speaker 3: and twenty seventh out of one thirty three and fifty seventh.

344
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Speaker 3: So Oklahoma is definitely going to be able to pass

345
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Speaker 3: on Oklahoma State here perhaps hit some long ones through

346
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Speaker 3: the air. That Nick Anderson kid is going to have

347
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 3: to step up. The kid who's been playing for Andrel

348
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 3: Anthony has taken a bigger role since then.

349
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Speaker 2: He's gonna have to step up because Oklahoma State does.

350
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Speaker 3: Allow those big plays through the air, and I think

351
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Speaker 3: they can run on Oklahoma State a little bit as well.

352
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Speaker 3: So the Oklahoma offense I think has a big bounce

353
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Speaker 3: back week and if Oklahoma's defense can do anything to

354
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Speaker 3: slow Ali Gordon, I just don't think.

355
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Speaker 2: Alan Bowman and crew are gonna be able to keep up.

356
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Speaker 1: Mike, what do you think. We've seen this number come

357
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 1: down a decent min from open, and we've seen some

358
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,320
Speaker 1: discrepancy on the over under. Where are you thinking on

359
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: this game?

360
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:24,199
Speaker 4: Yeah, that would be a lot more suffice and quicker

361
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Speaker 4: in this because this is bedlam. This is the last Bedlam.

362
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,920
Speaker 4: Oklahoma State's gonna want to send Oklahoma out with a

363
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Speaker 4: bad dis in the mouth. I think Oklahoma is starting

364
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 4: to be exposed a little bit. I mean, they should

365
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,400
Speaker 4: have well, maybe not should have but could have lost

366
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 4: the UCF team it's not very good at all. Kansas

367
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,720
Speaker 4: is a very good football team, but not great, you know,

368
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:48,640
Speaker 4: maybe not top ten you know caliber. Victory great. They

369
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Speaker 4: were able to run the ball and just st to Oklahoma.

370
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Speaker 4: I think Oklahoma State's gonna be able to run the

371
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Speaker 4: ball as well. I just have a feeling. If you're

372
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Speaker 4: gonna give me the points in the last in the game,

373
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Speaker 4: I'm gonna take them, and I think Oklahoma State takes

374
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Speaker 4: this game. Media outright, I'm not going to back a

375
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 4: money line here. I'm gonna just take the points and

376
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 4: go with Oklahoma State. I am counting on the fact

377
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 4: that they'll be able to run the football. Alan Rowman's

378
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 4: not good. They're passing offense is not good. But I

379
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Speaker 4: also think there's going to be some turnovers. And I

380
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 4: think this is an Oklahoma team that's starting the question

381
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Speaker 4: itself a little bit after a close win against a

382
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,359
Speaker 4: bad team and a loss.

383
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to move over to Georgia, who

384
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 1: I did double check is a fifteen and a half

385
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Speaker 1: point favorite. We got Missus, We got Missouri as a MISSIPI,

386
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 1: Missouri and Georgia tickets in cash on Missouri right now,

387
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half is the number four. What do

388
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 1: you like from this? Is that too big of a

389
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 1: line for you? That's why everyone's betting on Missouri right now.

390
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:51,159
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, well, yeah, not big enough for me.

391
00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 2: You know.

392
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 3: On the on the Sunday Show, when this thing opened,

393
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 3: it was sixteen or sixteen and a half, I forget,

394
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Speaker 3: but I was hoping in praying for the seventeen hit

395
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 3: and it just didn't get there, and it's it's coming

396
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,439
Speaker 3: the other way. Luckily it was in that kind of

397
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 3: dead zone.

398
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 2: So some of this.

399
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 3: Line movement the other way don't really matter, you know,

400
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 3: until we get to fourteen. Then it really matters, you know,

401
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:16,199
Speaker 3: if you're interested, you know, and that whatever. But I

402
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 3: wanted Missouri plus seventeen or ideally seventeen and a half.

403
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 3: But like I said, doesn't appear that it's going to

404
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 3: get there. That probably makes us a stay away from me, honestly.

405
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,120
Speaker 3: If you know, if later this week more money comes

406
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,360
Speaker 3: in on Georgia and I can get that seventeen, that's

407
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,120
Speaker 3: when I popped Missouri. But at that number, I had

408
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 3: to stay away. Just my trumpidation becomes Missouri's trump card

409
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 3: where they've they've beaten some of these teas, it's their

410
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 3: passing offense. They're passing offense really really good. Their offensive coordinator,

411
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 3: super respected Brady Cook has obviously taken a step forward

412
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 3: this year. And then they have the stide receivers, in particular,

413
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 3: Luther Burden is probably gonna be a first round peck

414
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 3: whenever he comes out the Missouri. You know, they've lit

415
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,920
Speaker 3: up some of these you know, South Dakota, Middle, Middle, Tennessee, Memphis, Vanderbilt,

416
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 3: LSU has the awful defense one hundred and thirteenth SB

417
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 3: plus they I'm sorry that was Vanderbilt forty seventh.

418
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 2: I guess for LSU, which which is I feel like

419
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: flattering them?

420
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 3: But anyway, you know, some of these teams they've lit

421
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 3: up have not been very good with their pass defense.

422
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 3: Georgia most certainly is Georgia's pass defense sixth and success

423
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 3: rate third, marginal efficiency eleventh in suppressing explosiveness. That's what

424
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 3: this game is gonna come down to. Can that that

425
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 3: elite Georgia pass defense put the clamps at all or

426
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 3: slow down the Missouri elite passing offense, because if they

427
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 3: can Georgia has enormous advantages in every single other facet

428
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,159
Speaker 3: of this game. That is, Missouri's one path year is

429
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 3: to you know, through the air, and they're going up

430
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 3: against one of the best pass defenses we have in America.

431
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: So in less but unless that seventeen seventeen and a half

432
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 3: com I'll probably staying away from this one.

433
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 1: Mike, are you gonna stay away? Do you like to

434
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 1: take Would you be comfortable with Missouri on the points

435
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 1: right now? Is this a Georgia hit or is this

436
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: a stay away? Like the War, This is a tough.

437
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 4: One because Georgia is starting to become the team that

438
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 4: we've seen over the last couple of years when it

439
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 4: comes to just sort of starting to steamroll people, play

440
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: more physical. The defense is improving. Carson beck is, you know,

441
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 4: obviously proving to be legit rock powers wasn't overly missed

442
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: last week, and I think they can work around that.

443
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,959
Speaker 4: But fifteen and a half is a lot. I mean,

444
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 4: Missouri obviously played Georgia tough, and they can do that again.

445
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 4: I think, you know, with their ability to rush the

446
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 4: passer they have to throw on offense, we know that

447
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 4: I think they can do that effectively, not to the

448
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 4: point where they're going to pull an upset, but this one,

449
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 4: you know, it seems to me like you're down three

450
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 4: touchdowns and they score a late, cheapiet to make this

451
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 4: a fourteen point game. So I'm going to take the

452
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 4: points in Missouri. It just hope they cover. Right.

453
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: State is going to Maryland. Penn State is a nine

454
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. When we are looking at

455
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 1: some of the money, We've got cash on Penn State,

456
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: We've got tickets on Maryland, but we both got overs. No,

457
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 1: it's not dramatic on the tickets and cash, but you

458
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: know it's enough that we can both hit the overs

459
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: on this store. Do you like the over? Do you

460
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 1: like Penn State on I don't know. We said about

461
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 1: this on the early line. I just felt like, was

462
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: this too still too low of a line on Penn State?

463
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: What do you think?

464
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, my system would have a slight lean towards the over.

465
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 2: It's hard for me to get there.

466
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: After watching the Penn State offense and Maryland's performance last

467
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: week against a Northwestern team that we came into the

468
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 3: season thinking could be one of the worst FBS teams

469
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 3: we've seen the last couple of years. Certainly not inspiring

470
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 3: coming off that thing.

471
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: Either.

472
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 3: My line this one now Penn State minus eight point

473
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 3: nine with the market, you know, I guess we're you know,

474
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 3: we're at ten right now, right so you know it's.

475
00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: Line at nine and a half, but there are ten.

476
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one's going to be a stay away from me.

477
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 3: You know, we talked about these two teams. They're both

478
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 3: coming out such uninspiring performances. It's it would be hard

479
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 3: for me to back Penn State after what I've seen

480
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks. It's also hard for me

481
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: to just bank like wrote bank on Maryland bouncing back

482
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: after that travesty against Northwestern last weekend. So and and

483
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: like my number fairly close to the Vegas numbers, So

484
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 3: it's it's probably gonna be a pass for me. And

485
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 3: and with the over like I said, my my system

486
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: would have a slight lean towards it. But the Penn

487
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: State offense is just like, I don't know what they're doing.

488
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 3: Is is drew a lar a lot in my head.

489
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 3: I always drew a lar.

490
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 4: It's a I always said Alart high school and he

491
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 4: corrected me, and I still got it wrong.

492
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 3: But it's alor alor, Okay, I'll have Yeah, we'll get

493
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 3: we'll get better at that?

494
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 2: Is he just Chris, We'll just call him Christian Ackerber

495
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 2: at two point?

496
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 4: Oh? Is that?

497
00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 2: Is that? What this situation is?

498
00:23:59,480 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 4: Like?

499
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 2: What this thing is devolved into?

500
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: Like this kid was crazy hyped and they won't throw

501
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: down the field with them, and on the few occasions

502
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 3: when they do, Bob will clang off a receiver's hands

503
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: if it happens to be accurate. They have all kinds

504
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,120
Speaker 3: of issues and the running game comes and goes. Even

505
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 3: though you love Singleton, Allen's are really good back too,

506
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 3: and the offensive line is pretty good. So I don't

507
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: know why the pieces aren't adding up here. Outside of Aler,

508
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 3: I'll get closer to the pronunciation, outside of him just

509
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: sort of taking the thing down and not having much

510
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 3: offensive imagination. But I also like the offensive coordinator's work

511
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: over the last decade, So I'm really confused about what

512
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 3: we're getting from Penn State. This is a long way

513
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: to say I will be a spectator in this game.

514
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,199
Speaker 1: Mike, what do you think? Where does this add up

515
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 1: for you? For this Penn State matchup?

516
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 4: Under the Penn State offensive receivers are horrible. They can't

517
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 4: get separation, they can't get open, they can't catch the

518
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 4: ball when it hit hits him in the hands. Aler

519
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 4: is a serviceable quarterback. He's a bit of a project.

520
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 4: And Hackenberg is a great reference because Srishan Ackerberg was

521
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 4: a five star team coming anigh squall, a ton of

522
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 4: hyph blah blah blah. Now he didn't have a ton

523
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 4: of weapons because of this scandal at end stage and

524
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 4: the scholarship reductions and all that stuff, but he also was,

525
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 4: you know, sort of a head scratching talent. You get

526
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 4: like an amazing one game and not so great the next.

527
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: That's aller So I think the under Maryland looks awful.

528
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 4: They've kind of fold their defense here. But to me,

529
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 4: this is gonna be a low scoring game because neither team,

530
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 4: I think is going to be able to throw the ball. Well.

531
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 1: I want you guys to use the Sportsbook Sinc on

532
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,760
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533
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,840
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534
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535
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536
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537
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538
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Speaker 1: viewing a game of interest, simply set a game notification

539
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,200
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540
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541
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: lock in your bet at the idea a line. Head

542
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: over to bettingpros dot com slash apps to start setting

543
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: your line alerts now, or download the Betting Pros app

544
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,000
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545
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: Betting Pros app. Get that locked in an amazingly amount

546
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: of awesome tools for you. Let's get going. Let's get

547
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: going with Kansas. Kansas at Iowa State. Iowa State is

548
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite.

549
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: Four.

550
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: Let's hear it, let's hear it. Just go.

551
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean rock trock forever for the Yeah,

552
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 3: the upseell win. But yeah, I think it's I think

553
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: we might be headed for the opposite story this weekend.

554
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: You come off that jubilant win, Now you have to

555
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 3: go to Ames.

556
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have to. I think this is a night game.

557
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 2: Night games and Ames have.

558
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 3: Been house of horrors for the Big twelve for the

559
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: last decade, no matter how good Iowa State is, and

560
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: this Iowa State team has been ascending. You know, at

561
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 3: the beginning of the season, there is some wonky stuff

562
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 3: going on and on the one fan was yelling at

563
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 3: Campbell after that, I think it was after the Ohio

564
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 3: game they lost, and Campbell was snipping back at him,

565
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 3: and you thought the wheels were gonna come off. But

566
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 3: like right at that point where like it was like

567
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 3: Campbell was like sort of careening off the cleft, he

568
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: has managed to steer this thing, turn it all the

569
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 3: way around, and now they appear to be headed in

570
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 3: the right direction, playing very, very good football, and they're

571
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: a bad stylistic matchup for Kansas. Last week, we talked

572
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 3: all week about why Kansas was a good stylistic matchup

573
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 3: facing Oklahoma and the stuff they could do to discombobulate

574
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 3: that Oklahoma defense and different stuff like that, and that

575
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 3: ended up coming to fruition.

576
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 2: This one.

577
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 3: I think the Iowa State defense is going to be

578
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: ready for some of the machinations of Koala Necky that

579
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 3: Kansas I got to get better with by pronunciation, especially

580
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 3: the Kansas offensive coordinator because that guy's a stud. But

581
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 3: the different stuff he does with the pre snap motion

582
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: and and you know the play action the RPO is

583
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 3: like all the different stuff he does with that, and

584
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: then you know, targeting the side of the field where

585
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 3: he has a numbers of advantages. And Jason Bean is

586
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: a solid quarterback, but you know, no great shakes, but

587
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 3: he's clearly being schemed up. You know, you can see

588
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 3: that in the Oklahoma game and stuff away from some

589
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: of the mistakes and to showcase his ability and whatnot.

590
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 3: But I just don't think that this is the matchup

591
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 3: for them. I feel like the market has a beat

592
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: on this one. This line since we talked about this

593
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: on Sunday, has been moving towards Iowa State. I hate

594
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 3: to say it as a Jayhawk fan. Hope I'm wrong,

595
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 3: but and I won't bet against Kansas, but if I

596
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 3: had to bet this one, I'd be on Iowa State.

597
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: Mike, we have over ninety percent tickets and cash on

598
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: Iowa State right now. We don't have cash numbers on

599
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 1: the total, which is a fifty four, but the tickets

600
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: are over sixty percent on the over, so we've got

601
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: heavy over and heavy Iowa State. What say you?

602
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 4: I agree with for her? I mean this is a

603
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 4: leadown game for Kansas. Not that Lance is going to

604
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: let them went down, but it's just natural. I mean,

605
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 4: you come up with a huge win like that and

606
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 4: you know you go into a difficult atmosphere. I like

607
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 4: the under. I don't know why all the points are well,

608
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 4: the money's on the over. I think this is going

609
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 4: to be a lower scoring game. But yeah, I think James,

610
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 4: this is not a great match up here coming off

611
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 4: a huge win. You know, I'm not a big fan

612
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 4: of mister bean as Thordos. He's a serviceable guy, but

613
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 4: you know, this is a road atmosphere where he could

614
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 4: make a couple of mistakes. They scheme against mistakes, but

615
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 4: you know, and names, you're going to make a couple.

616
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 4: I think, especially this Iowa State team, man Matt Campbell

617
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 4: was on every like job opening list that we were doing,

618
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 4: and then he started having a really, really bad football season,

619
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 4: and as he mentioned, you know, he got in a

620
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 4: little shouting match with the fan and something clicked, something changed.

621
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 4: This became Iowa State that we're used to seeing under him.

622
00:29:55,200 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 4: You know, a scrappy, physical team, very well coached, you know,

623
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 4: good in game adjustments and decisions and all the stuff

624
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 4: that we love about Matt Campbell and the reason why

625
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 4: he's been mentioned for every opening job. We're starting to

626
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: see again. So this is two really good coaches. They're

627
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 4: going to be scheming properly, They're going to be game

628
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 4: planning properly. But I think a couple of mister Bean

629
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 4: turnovers here is going to lead Iowa State to cover this,

630
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 4: and I think it's going to be a low scoring game.

631
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 4: So I go one hunder.

632
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: All right, we got pac twelve action. Washington is at USC.

633
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 1: There's a lot of three and a half, but the

634
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: best line, according to betting pros, if you check it out,

635
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: you can get a three out there. We've got a

636
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: bunch of the cash and tickets pretty much all on

637
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: Washington at this point. The cash is on the under

638
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: while tickets are on the over, so there's a little

639
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 1: bit of discrepancy that over. That total line is seventy

640
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: six and a half. So I brought this one up.

641
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: I was kind of poking with you on the Sunday

642
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: look Ahead show for that. I don't know just how

643
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: bad USC has been, and I know Washington has kind

644
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: of played down and just I don't know, Pennix is

645
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 1: just a thing. I just I looked at this line

646
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: and I just thought this should be bigger on Washington.

647
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: But I know there's been a little bit of a

648
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: playdown on Washington side as well. But thor what say you?

649
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: It's all on Washington on the betting side. Do you

650
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 1: want to disagree?

651
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 3: I I mean, I would lean Washington if the numbers

652
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: at three. I feel like though that that's a good number.

653
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 3: My line is three on that game, so it would

654
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: be hard for me to pay a higher price than that.

655
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 3: But I am back in usc You know, you look

656
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 3: at the on field matchup of this one. Washington's defensive

657
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 3: strength by far is their pass defense. And you have

658
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 3: to tip your cap to them because their past defense

659
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 3: was terrible last year that you know, that was the

660
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 3: one part of the team that had really fallen off.

661
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: They had lost a bun Jimmy Lake would I mean.

662
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 4: Right, that's a big different. I mean they were they

663
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 4: had stayed healthy this year. Seven dudes last year. Yeah,

664
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 4: good on them to stay healthy because they're a different

665
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 4: team when they do.

666
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 3: Washington's past defense thirty second success rate, thirty third, marginal

667
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: explosion in thirty six suppressing complete percentage.

668
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 2: That's the one that's going up against Caleb Williams. So

669
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: that's what you prefer to be your strength.

670
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 3: You can run all day on Washington's defense, So I

671
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 3: would suggest probably the overs on Marshawn Lloyd in this game,

672
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 3: but Wasdroton defense might be able to make things a

673
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 3: little bit difficult for Caleb Williams. It just becomes about

674
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 3: can USC's defense due to Pennix and the Washington offense

675
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 3: can to any semblance of a degree to what we've

676
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 3: seen in the last couple of weeks where that offense

677
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 3: has greatly come down. They're not putting the points up,

678
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: they're not getting the yards, they're turning the ball over

679
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: way more. This should be a get right game for them,

680
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,479
Speaker 3: although USC that I mean, they don't. It's hard to

681
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 3: I'm putting this in Bunny Air quotes for anyone listening

682
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: on the pot. Their relative strength on defense is their

683
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 3: pass defense. USC's thirty eighth passing success rate. You can

684
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 3: get them for the explosive stuff though, ninety six in

685
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 3: explosion Washington those two categories is second in the nation

686
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 3: and thirty fourth. You can also and you can run

687
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: a lot more on USC one hundredth in success rate

688
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 3: eighty eighth in marginal explosiveness.

689
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 2: Washington can run the ball.

690
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: It'll be interesting to see if they lean a little

691
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 3: bit more into that in this one, at least at

692
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 3: the outset. Dylan Johnson's been playing pretty well the transfer

693
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 3: they got form Misissippi State. Maybe try to lean into

694
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 3: that soft front of USC's. But for me, if the

695
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 3: number is three, certainly, if it's less, the play for

696
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: me would be on Washington. I'll probably be a bystander, though.

697
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 3: If it's above.

698
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: That, Yeah, there's only one book I see that's got

699
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: three according to betting pros, the rest are three and

700
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: a half. So Mike, when you look at this, if

701
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: you're Washington, is three and a half enough to stay away?

702
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: If you're a USC better three enough, three and a

703
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: half is something maybe you want to jump on quick

704
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: before that maybe pops back down. But I don't know

705
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: where are you at on this game. It's also really

706
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: big total.

707
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 4: I mean, if you get it at three, obviously you

708
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 4: want to three in a tricky year. But I don't

709
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 4: think this is going to be a field all game.

710
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 4: I'm leaning Washington here. I know they've struggled the last

711
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 4: couple of weeks somebody, you know, somebody's figured out something

712
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 4: to slow down the offense a little bit, which we

713
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 4: thought was impossible to slow down. I mean, they're just

714
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 4: putting up record numbers. USC is not going to follow

715
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 4: that script. They're just not They don't have the ability

716
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 4: to do so. The defense is horrible. Grinch is an

717
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 4: awful game planner, He's an awful in game adjustment guy.

718
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 4: He's just an horrible defensive coordinator. He's been on the

719
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 4: downslide of his career since Ohio State. I don't know

720
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 4: why Lincoln Raley brought in the USC. I don't know

721
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 4: mine keeps employed. I think this is gonna make Washington

722
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 4: right on offense. I'm leaning towards that over too. I mean,

723
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: I know it's a huge number, but USC can't stop anybody.

724
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 4: And if Washington can put up big numbers like they

725
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 4: did previously for these last couple of games, USC is

726
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 4: going to put up big numbers. I mean they're gonna

727
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 4: come marching back, and we saw how quickly they can score.

728
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 4: I know it's against Cal, but you know they can.

729
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 4: They can get on the board real quick when they're desperate.

730
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: So give me a leaning towards Washington. And if you

731
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 4: want to know parlay action, go over because I don't

732
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 4: think many people think it's going to go high, but

733
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be a very, very high scoring game.

734
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: All Right, We've got LSU at Alabama. Alabama is a

735
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: three point favorite. Cash LSU tickets Bama. Everybody over, That's

736
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: what everybody wants to play over total sixty and a half.

737
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: I'm seeing so thor I think I don't. I'm trying

738
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: to remember where we were on this one. I feel

739
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 1: like you hated everything about all of this.

740
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 3: Well, I hated the idea that I might have to

741
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 3: place a bet on Alabama, and now the market is

742
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 3: I feel like the market is really forcing my hand this.

743
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 3: It would become my first bet on Alabama this season.

744
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,919
Speaker 3: By like I said, I feel like the markets forced

745
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: my hand bringing this thing down to three.

746
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 2: I think when we talked about it on Sunday, I

747
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: think what was fo Yeah.

748
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: One of the funny things too, I think we noted

749
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: that this was the first the entire season there was

750
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:05,760
Speaker 1: line value on Alabama the entire season according to your system.

751
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's crazy that sort of the one to

752
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 3: eighty people have done on LSU I mean to this

753
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 3: degree where now, uh you know my line, you know

754
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 3: about Alabama minus six and a half and then this

755
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 3: this thing being down to a field goal. I don't know,

756
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 3: Like I I love the LSU offense as much as

757
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 3: the next guy.

758
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 2: Well, I love it. It's just I watched their defense

759
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: and it's awful, and Alabama's going to be able to

760
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: do Alabama things to it. Both running the ball, They're

761
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: certainly gonna be able to establish that Alabama SIV of

762
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: an offensive line is not going to be tested in

763
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: this game because LSU's front isn't very good, so you'll

764
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,439
Speaker 2: be able to run on them. And then the other

765
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,439
Speaker 2: thing is that the passing game for Alabama. Of course,

766
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 2: it leaves stuff to be desired. But Milroe has shown

767
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 2: and I'll tip my cat to him. I didn't think

768
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: he was even going to get to this point ever

769
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: in his career. He's shown an aptitude for hitting some

770
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: of those downfield shots, you know, and some of the

771
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: receivers have stepped up in that regard. Alabama now twenty

772
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 2: third in marginal explosiveness passing. They're sort of middle in

773
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 2: the of the pack and a lot of the other

774
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 2: passing categories in the FBS, but they can hit those

775
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 2: downfield shots. LSU. They're passing defense.

776
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 3: One hundred and tenth in that and of course the

777
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 3: LSU run defense is terrible, terrible, terrible. So then it

778
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 3: just becomes how can Alabama's defense, you know, can they

779
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 3: they put the clamps on LSU's or slow it down

780
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:33,240
Speaker 3: at all. LSU's offense number three SP plus, Alabama's defense

781
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 3: is number six SP plus. Alabama has a pretty well

782
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 3: rounded defense, I feel like, especially in terms of the

783
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 3: efficiency number four, success rate, number nine, three and out percentage.

784
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 3: They're probably not going to be forcing many three and

785
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 3: outs in this one, but I think they can.

786
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 2: They can slow it down just enough.

787
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 3: Where I'm not sure that LSU is going to be

788
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: doing anything to stop Alabama's offense because the things that

789
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 3: Alabama does well offense, LSU stinks at defending those things.

790
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna trust Alabama's defense a little bit more

791
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 3: here going up against the druggernaut offense. Alabama defense quite

792
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 3: good itself. I'm gonna take the Crimson tide in this one.

793
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: And Mike, we got a pretty you know, close spread overall.

794
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: Is that something you're going to want to attack or

795
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: is there a total that feels better?

796
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 4: Now, I'm gonna go to Alabama here too. I mean,

797
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 4: I believe as we're taking it's next, saving the great, next,

798
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 4: saving seventy second birthday. I believe kudos to him for

799
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 4: reaching seventy two and for being the greatest football coach

800
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 4: to ever put on sneakers. I guess not Cleets. So

801
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,839
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna go all it's a better coach. I'm

802
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 4: gonna go with the team that is more balanced offensively.

803
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 4: I know LSU's offense is great. I know they can

804
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 4: put up big points, but their defense is so bad.

805
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 4: They give up long pass plays. And that's what Jimlen

806
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,240
Speaker 4: Molroe could do. We always knew he was a downfield grower.

807
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 4: It's the intermediate stuff. He's not very accurate, and I

808
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 4: think he will get better at the head. By the way, again,

809
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 4: I keep saying, it's not that he's going to be

810
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 4: Jaalen Hurts in the NFL, But this is kind of

811
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 4: a jail and Hurts type of development is different Texas.

812
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 4: You know, athletic and run, leans on that more early

813
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 4: in his career, gets a little bit more proficient passing downfield,

814
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 4: and then eventually gets the intermediate stuff a little bit better.

815
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 4: He's not going to be jail and hurts in the NFL,

816
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 4: but I think he can be that type of player,

817
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 4: especially against an LSU defense that stinks, and you know

818
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 4: he's going to be able to do some work with

819
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 4: his feed as well. So offensively, LSU is great. I

820
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: don't think they're quite as balanced as Alabama is because Alabama,

821
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 4: his defense is good. They can stop the run, I

822
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 4: believe it. I think they're going to give up some

823
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 4: obviously Jaden Daniels running plays, and they're going to be

824
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 4: susceptible a little bit of the intermediate passing stuff. I

825
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 4: like their secondary, but overall, I think, you know, Alabama's

826
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 4: balance of being able to run and throw downfield is

827
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 4: going to be better against that horrible LSU defense than

828
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 4: LSU's dynamic offense against the Alabama defense is pretty good.

829
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 4: So give me Alabama. It's a long winning way to

830
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 4: say Nick Saban Happy Birthday, and I just can't bet

831
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 4: against him very often. I did it in the Texas

832
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 4: game and I felt wrong and it worked, but it

833
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 4: just felt wrong. So I'm back to just betting on

834
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 4: Nick Saban. And if you did that over his career,

835
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 4: we'd be living in a pretty big, nice house. Right'll

836
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 4: be fun.

837
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: It'll be a fun bet to. That'd be a fun stretch.

838
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 4: I mean, Nick Shaven bought me a house. I sold it,

839
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 4: but I thank him for that. So give me Alabama.

840
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: Have you similar to the Christian McCaffrey, Like, if you

841
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 1: just rolled his anytime touchdown over this season, you'd be

842
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 1: making bank that like six hundred.

843
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 4: Four hundred some absurd at fifteen straightes, roll it over.

844
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 4: But you got to go big to start and then

845
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 4: roll it and I then just keep going roll it. Yeah,

846
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 4: and that's you know, Nick Shaven, if you did that

847
00:40:56,239 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 4: from what his first year, which is two thousand and six, out.

848
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: There has to do this for us, right, Someone's got

849
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 1: to do this for us out there. Someone's got to

850
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: tell us what that would be. So if you do, please,

851
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 1: we will give you credit on the show. Final game.

852
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: We've got Oregon State at Colorado. Always love a Colorado

853
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: conversation here. This is similar to the one I talked

854
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: about before. It's thirteen and a half everywhere except for

855
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: one book. Again, go to bettingpros dot com check the odds.

856
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 1: You can see which books you could try to take advantage.

857
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: I don't know if thirteen to thirteen and a half

858
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,439
Speaker 1: that's not really a hook situation we care about too much.

859
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 1: But we have got lots of cash and tickets on

860
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 1: Oregon States and a bunch on the under so thor

861
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 1: we talked about I think last week. I think that

862
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 1: we were back to some line value on Colorado. I

863
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 1: don't know where your system. I don't remember if we

864
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: talked about this on Sunday. I don't think we did.

865
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 1: Is there any line value on Colorado as we have

866
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 1: seen a lot this season versus Oregon.

867
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 2: State, not this week.

868
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: My line on this game is Oregon State minus fifteen.

869
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 3: I think Oregon State is a play beneath fourteen. You

870
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,800
Speaker 3: know it hits it hits four team certainly if it

871
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,919
Speaker 3: gets above it now now that thing's getting hairy. But

872
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 3: beneath two touchdowns, I think that that thing is playable.

873
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 3: Oregon State been a strange team for me to watch

874
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 3: this year because the defense, which was so salty and

875
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 3: led the renaissance last year, it's actually falling a bet

876
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 3: this year. But the offense is surge. The Oregon States

877
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 3: offense twelve sp plus defense down to thirty fifth. They

878
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 3: still play really clean special team sixteenth. So they're doing

879
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 3: it in all three phases. But it's weird to say

880
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 3: this Oregon State team that their worst phase is their defense.

881
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 3: But fortunately for them in this game, the reason it's

882
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 3: down there and not you know, say, fifteen spots higher,

883
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 3: it's because the run defense is horrible. Well, I mean,

884
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 3: like they had lost the linebacker to LSU. You know,

885
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 3: they lost some defenders over the offseason, but I don't

886
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 3: think anybody expected does Oregon States run defense one hundred

887
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 3: and twenty fifth success rate twenty ninth power success rate

888
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 3: one hundred and nineteenth in stuff rate, Well, that don't

889
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,959
Speaker 3: matter here Colorado. They don't run the ball at all.

890
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: Oregon State's pass defense is slightly above average FBS. Now,

891
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 3: Colorado's going to move the ball on them, for sure

892
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 3: through the air, but you know it's gonna be a

893
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: one handed thing. And again, you can't go at the

894
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 3: Achilles heel of the Oregon State defense. That's just not

895
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 3: how Colorado plays offense. And then on the other side,

896
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 3: Oregon State is multiple. They can both run it on you,

897
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 3: they can throw it on you. And fortunately for them,

898
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 3: Colorado's defense is multiple in the inverse way, and that

899
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 3: they will give you both. So they're going to be

900
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 3: getting whatever they want here. This should be a big

901
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 3: game for DJU. Colorado's pass defense on hundred and twenty

902
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 3: eighth in success rate one hundred and twenty six and

903
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: completion percentage allowed. DJU has leaked that Beaver's passing offense

904
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 3: twenty sixth in success rate thirtieth and marginal explosiveness. Again,

905
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 3: this number, if it's beneath fourteen, you have to lay.

906
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 3: You know, if you don't have to lay up to that,

907
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: I would lay the thirteen and a half with Oregon

908
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 3: State or certainly less.

909
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: So the total is sitting at sixty two. Mike God,

910
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: I wouldn't ask you if you're gonna bet on Colorado.

911
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: So here's the ask, Nick, Saban's not going to buy

912
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: you a house, but will Oregon State buy you a

913
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: house this weekend? On how hard you slam Oregon State.

914
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 4: I'm not a house, but I'm gonna slam Oregon State

915
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 4: pretty hard here because you know, for a lot of

916
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,439
Speaker 4: reasons Store mentioned. I mean, they can't stop to run,

917
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 4: but Colorado, first of all, doesn't. They can't run. They

918
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 4: don't want to run. Honestly, I really don't think they

919
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 4: want to run, and the offensive line stinks and beyond

920
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 4: call them out and I'll go for that in a second,

921
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 4: but I don't think they want to run. I'm becoming

922
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 4: more and more convinced that this is a dad and

923
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 4: not a coach. And I think he's like formulating this

924
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 4: entire offense around his son, the quarterback. And you know,

925
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 4: the whole theory that he was taking sacks to increase

926
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 4: his completion percent it's kind of stupid. I mean, not

927
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 4: going to put yourself at risk to do that. But

928
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 4: the theory that somehow early is that you know, Sido

929
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 4: is going to put up massive numbers and being you know,

930
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 4: one of the leading passers in the nation because his

931
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 4: dad wants them to. I think I'm buying into that now.

932
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 4: And I also think the dumbest thing you can do

933
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 4: as a coach is to call out and tell your

934
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 4: offensive line mid season or at least a little bit

935
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 4: on the season, that they're all gone. You stink we're

936
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 4: going to place you. So now, I mean, okay, so

937
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 4: some people think, oh, they're going to really step up

938
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 4: because they're called.

939
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 2: Off the game.

940
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 4: Now they're going to really no, No, they're going to

941
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 4: get frustrated, they're not going to try as hard, and

942
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 4: when they do struggle, they're not going to fight for

943
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 4: their coach because the coach threw them under the bus,

944
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 4: and they're certainly not going to fight for the guy

945
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 4: flash and watches that's the coach's son. So I think

946
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 4: this is going to be starting to get really interested

947
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 4: in Colorado. This is a home game. You're not going

948
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 4: to see a billion celebrities. You're not going to see

949
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 4: college game day there. You're not going to see all

950
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 4: the glitz, glamor and all the coverage that you saw,

951
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 4: and you're going to have a team that I think

952
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 4: can get after the passer and has good the pass defense.

953
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 4: They can't stop the run, but they can get after

954
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:10,879
Speaker 4: sugar and the offensive line is gonna be a sif.

955
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:15,399
Speaker 4: So I'm pounding Oregon State here pretty good. I think

956
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 4: this is going to be I'm not going to say

957
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 4: a beating because Colorado was actually covered quite a bit

958
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 4: of the season when they covered last week if I

959
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 4: remember correctly, and as fifteen started seventeen and a half

960
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 4: when down to fifteen, But I think the comments, I

961
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 4: think what's what people are starting to see is this

962
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 4: is the sugar and Dion Shll Jonathan Smith's a smart

963
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 4: guy that he's going to drill this team.

964
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 1: I think, all right, well I'm I'm looking to make

965
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 1: a house payment at least on this So Oregan Oregon State,

966
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 1: let's go. There, you go. That's your that's your Week

967
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: ten preview. Thank you guys for hanging out with us

968
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 1: here on Bettingpros dot com, slash YouTube or YouTube dot

969
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 1: com Slash Betting Pros. Also on the podcast side, Thank

970
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 1: you guys for hanging out. You can find both of

971
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: these fine gentlemen on the twitters at Feral Sports two

972
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 1: L's thor Ku on Saturday, make sure you tune in

973
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: ten am Eastern for the live stream. They're going to

974
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 1: get you completely set and then thor myself well actually

975
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 1: this week I'm not, but it'll be Thoring Froton on

976
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: Sunday getting you set for the early line for week eleven.

977
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: So really we get you covered here on Betting Pros

978
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 1: podcast or YouTube side, whatever it is. Thank you guys

979
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 1: for hanging out. I'm Chris Welsh on Twitter at is

980
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 1: it the Welsh and we'll talk to you next time

981
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: right here I'm betting Pros by friends. Thanks for listening

982
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros podcast.

983
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

984
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 3: Instagram at betting Pros NFL.

985
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our

986
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,800
Speaker 2: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros