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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: red enough?

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, slipid sixteen

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Speaker 2: Just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 2: percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. How shot

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Speaker 2: with that? Shop with mind bog buddy, And.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying again.

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Speaker 2: The love is left too, the wide eyed drill bibus,

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Speaker 2: how old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. I am your host today,

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Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham, joined by my co host and friend Anthony Bundo.

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Speaker 1: In just a second, this is your Women's World Cup

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Speaker 1: semi final preview. But before we dive into it, Wonder

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Speaker 1: Goal is presented by Bet three six five, the world's

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Speaker 1: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up the promo code action to

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Speaker 1: get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer bet

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Speaker 1: one dollar on any game, get two hundred dollars in bonus.

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Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one years older. Offers available in Colorado,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa in the United States.

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Speaker 1: If you have a gambling problem, please call our text

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. We are here to the Women's

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Speaker 1: World Cup semifinals. It's Spain versus Sweden and England versus Australia,

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Speaker 1: and here are your futures odds for the remainder of

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Speaker 1: the tournament from bet three six five. Spain is your

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Speaker 1: favorite at plus one sixty, England sitting at two to one,

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Speaker 1: Australia is four to one, and Sweden is plus four

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Speaker 1: fifty to win the Women's World Cup. We're going to

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Speaker 1: start first with Spain and Sweden, Spain needing extra time

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Speaker 1: to get by the Netherlands and Sweden pulling off an

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Speaker 1: upset beating a Japanese team that could have done no

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Speaker 1: wrong up until that point. But Anthony, I think we're

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Speaker 1: kind of both of an agreement here is that Spain

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Speaker 1: is essentially the exact same odds as they were to

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Speaker 1: advance and on the ninety minute line against the Netherlands,

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Speaker 1: but now they're essentially playing a team that's better in Sweden,

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Speaker 1: and the odds are about the same.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the market certainly loves this Spanish side, and we

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Speaker 2: both both had Spain money line. Both lost that in

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Speaker 2: painful fashion in the quarterfinals. I would have bet that

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Speaker 2: one hundred times over based on how that played out.

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Speaker 2: Spain took the first twelve shots of the game. They

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Speaker 2: dominated the first half. I think you mentioned seventeen to

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Speaker 2: one at one point in the game. With the shots,

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Speaker 2: the Dutch get a late goal, you know, Spain falls

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Speaker 2: asleep defensively, their high line gets exposed. We've seen this

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Speaker 2: before and I think that this matchup is just a

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Speaker 2: little bit different from the last one because the Dutch

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Speaker 2: are much less comfortable playing out of possession. I think

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Speaker 2: you saw the problems with that in the last matchup,

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Speaker 2: where Spain just constantly had the and constantly was threatening

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Speaker 2: the goal. Sweden is much better defensively out of possession

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Speaker 2: and they can show their abilities to attack direct and transition.

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Speaker 2: Sweden's also better on set pieces going forward and pose

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Speaker 2: more of a threat there than the Dutch did. So

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Speaker 2: I think those are the two main areas where you

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Speaker 2: know Sweden has some advantages in this matchup and thus

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Speaker 2: could be live to pull off the upset. I will

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Speaker 2: be betting Sweden plus a half. I think they can

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Speaker 2: at least get this to extra time, and I think

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Speaker 2: they've been pretty much underrated by the market the majority

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Speaker 2: of this tournament, especially in their last match against Japan,

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Speaker 2: where you know, we said this going into the last round,

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Speaker 2: Japan was being priced at the same number of the

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Speaker 2: United States was, and even though Japan had looked like

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Speaker 2: the best team in the tournament the first four games,

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Speaker 2: that's a drastic overreaction. Now Spain is kind of getting

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Speaker 2: that love here, and Spain has more of a track record,

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Speaker 2: their priors are stronger, their performances have been really impressive,

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Speaker 2: especially the first two knockout matches especially, But again I

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Speaker 2: think Swedes are enough to hang around in this one

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Speaker 2: and get it to extra time and then really turn

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Speaker 2: this into a bit of a coin flip. So if

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Speaker 2: you look at the underlying metrics for the entire tournament,

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Speaker 2: Sweden has been right up there in terms of expected

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Speaker 2: goals created and allowed. They haven't been on the level

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Speaker 2: of Spain, no doubt, Like nobody has pretty much Spain

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Speaker 2: plus two point eight three expected goal difference per ninety

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Speaker 2: but you know, the Swedes are right up there, right

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Speaker 2: around the same numbers as France and England, and a

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Speaker 2: little bit worse than Germany. So they've been in that

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Speaker 2: mix of teams that have been very good in this tournament.

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Speaker 2: So I think that there's a little bit of value

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Speaker 2: on Sweden plus a half to get a result and

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Speaker 2: to get this extra time at worst. And you know,

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Speaker 2: if if they're able to steal one on the set piece,

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Speaker 2: they could easily win this game. You can you can

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Speaker 2: kind of draw a picture of where things go wrong

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Speaker 2: for Spain in this matchup.

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Speaker 1: For sure, and I should have mentioned off the top.

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Speaker 1: You know, Spain is plus one oh five on the

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Speaker 1: ninety minute line, Sweden sitting at plus two to sixty

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Speaker 1: with the draw plus two thirty Spain minus one seventy

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Speaker 1: five to advance, Sweden plus one twenty five to advance.

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Speaker 1: I bet three sixty five. I agree. I really do

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Speaker 1: like Sweden to get through here. You know, these two

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Speaker 1: teams played in October of twenty twenty two. It was

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Speaker 1: kind of a chaotic friendly. It ended one to one.

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Speaker 1: Expected goals were spaying two point three to one point seven.

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Speaker 1: Sweden scored pretty early on in the match, sat really

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Speaker 1: defensive and just kind of looked counter for pretty much

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Speaker 1: the entire match. And I think that's how it's going

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Speaker 1: to kind of set up here. And we've seen it

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Speaker 1: one time so far this tournament with Spain where they've

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Speaker 1: had to play an elite transitional type team. It was

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Speaker 1: against Japan, and Japan ripped them apart. In all of

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Speaker 1: their other matches, they've played teams that want to build

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Speaker 1: out of the back and want to play slow possession

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Speaker 1: build up and they haven't really been tested. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned it. Up until the eighty fifth minute, shots

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Speaker 1: were seventeen to one in favor of Spain. They just

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Speaker 1: fell asleep in the in the ninety first minute and

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Speaker 1: Netherlands caught them. But Netherlands had absolutely no business taking

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Speaker 1: it to extra time. And now we are in a

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Speaker 1: situation where Spain is coming off having to play one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty minutes, while Sweden, although they did have

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Speaker 1: to play one hundred and twenty minutes against the United States,

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Speaker 1: had a very very impressive performance against Japan. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they took the first twelve shots of that match. They

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Speaker 1: were physically imposing, they used their athleticism to the advantages

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Speaker 1: that they had and they got through. So now we're

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Speaker 1: sitting here in Japan on the ninety minute line closed

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Speaker 1: somewhere around plus one twenty plus one twenty five, and

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Speaker 1: now we have Spain at plus one five, So you

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Speaker 1: could you can make the argument that you know, there's

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Speaker 1: not enough market respect here for Sweden, and I kind

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Speaker 1: of agree. So I do like Sweden with their ability

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Speaker 1: to play a very direct, transitional style like they showed

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Speaker 1: against the United States, and I think they're getting through here.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a really good spot for them,

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Speaker 1: and I think the price is indicative of that. So

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Speaker 1: I like Sweden to advance. So I'm with you, and

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Speaker 1: I'm probably actually I'll probably end up taking a plus

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Speaker 1: a half as well, and hopefully we can get our

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Speaker 1: Sweden twenty to one futures ticket to the final to

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Speaker 1: be able to hedge against. Honestly, I'm not hedging that's

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Speaker 1: a good transition right there, Anthony, because let's go to

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Speaker 1: the next match, because no hedge gets through against any

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Speaker 1: of these to these next two teams, I don't think

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna hatch well England.

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Speaker 2: If Sweden plays France in the final, we'll have both. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we'll have both tickets. Right when France is still in

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Speaker 2: the tournament, I turned off the penalty shoot after eight kicks,

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Speaker 2: don't tell me who actually won. And on all seriousness,

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Speaker 2: the French go out that was heartbreaking. Herve standing on

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Speaker 2: the corner of the bench for the entirety of the shootout,

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Speaker 2: just staring off into the distance was it almost broke me.

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Speaker 2: And Eugenie Lissenmayer, you know, as much as she's been

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Speaker 2: a part of this French team, and her making her

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Speaker 2: penalty and then seeing her teammates one by one in

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Speaker 2: the second half of the shootout choke over and over

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Speaker 2: again was very disheartening. But Viva fons forever.

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Speaker 1: Australia, your host nation is taking on England. England is

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Speaker 1: plus one thirty on the ninety minute line, Australia plus

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Speaker 1: two forty, the draw sitting at plus two ten, England's

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Speaker 1: minus one fifty. Who advanced with Australia at plus one ten.

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Speaker 1: I have a specific pick for this game that I

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Speaker 1: think I found a number that's a little too low.

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Speaker 1: But I think we can both agree neither of these

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Speaker 1: teams have really been that impressive throughout this World Cup,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's it's kind of hard to pick

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Speaker 1: a winner of who's going to advance here.

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Speaker 2: I thought Australia played well against France. I woke up

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Speaker 2: far too early in the morning to watch that match,

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Speaker 2: and I was half awake for most of it, but

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Speaker 2: I thought they looked good to compact, organized defensively and

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Speaker 2: looked dangerous in transition. And I think that's what we've

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Speaker 2: seen Australia when they're at their best. They're able to

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Speaker 2: do that against teams who may be better in stature

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Speaker 2: and kind of footballing history. But this Australian team also

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Speaker 2: has just a general good vibe around them right now,

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Speaker 2: with the way that their pressure has been lifted from

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Speaker 2: them making it to the quarterfinals, making it to the semifinals,

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Speaker 2: now winning that shootout in such dramatic fashion, I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, Australia isn't that much worse than England right now.

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Speaker 2: And if you look at the underlying numbers from the

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Speaker 2: group stage, like Australia has had its issues and England

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Speaker 2: has been so dominant, right that's like the narrative here.

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Speaker 2: If you just looked at like wins and losses, like

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Speaker 2: Australia needed a final day win just to advance. England

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Speaker 2: rolled through their group took all nine points plus eight

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Speaker 2: gold differential expected gold differential per ninety in this tournament

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Speaker 2: England plus point nine to seven, Australia plus point seven

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Speaker 2: to seven. And I think it's pretty clear that Australia

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Speaker 2: has played a much tougher schedule of opponents. Both teams

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Speaker 2: played in Nigeria, so that was the one common they had,

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Speaker 2: but the Aussie's also played Canada, the Alsys had to

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Speaker 2: play France. England had a pretty weak group. You know,

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Speaker 2: they took care of business against Denmark, but again look

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Speaker 2: at the Australia underlying performances against Denmark versus whit England did.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's pretty comparable. So I don't really think

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Speaker 2: England has played at the level to warrant them being

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Speaker 2: a real sizeable favorite in this matchup against the Aussies.

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Speaker 2: I think what's happened here is that the market is

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Speaker 2: giving England credit and the prior on this England team

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Speaker 2: is really strong because they won the Euros last summer

199
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Speaker 2: at home. And I've said this all tournament long, and

200
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Speaker 2: I've bet against England a lot in this tournament. They

201
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Speaker 2: have not warranted that power rating at any point in

202
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Speaker 2: this tournament because it's not the same team. I mean,

203
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Speaker 2: they've They've got so many injuries, with Kirby, with Mead

204
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Speaker 2: and Williamson not being there, and now Lauren James suspended

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Speaker 2: for this match. They have not been effective and consistent

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Speaker 2: and played at the level that that power rating has warranted.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's been value going against them in

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Speaker 2: every match, and I think Nigeria was clearly the better team.

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Speaker 2: I think Columbia England was relatively close to even once

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Speaker 2: you take out that goalie mishap which ultimately decided the

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Speaker 2: game for Colombia. And I think if you look back

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Speaker 2: to England's group stage, the Denmark and the Haiti matches

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Speaker 2: were not England at its best. So we have not

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Speaker 2: seen England's best really, except for maybe a half hour

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Speaker 2: against China, and I don't think we're going to see it.

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Speaker 2: So Ozzie's is a dog here at home.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 2: I think that, you know, it's pretty much the same

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Speaker 2: price Ossie's were against France, and I think France is

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Speaker 2: playing better than England coming into that semi final. It's

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Speaker 2: another few days for Samur to maybe get healthy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm not expecting much from her now because she looked

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Speaker 2: pretty pretty average in her hour on the pitch in

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Speaker 2: that quarter final against France. But anything they can get

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Speaker 2: from her is more than what they've gotten. So give

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Speaker 2: me the Aussies as a dog to advance at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely don't disagree because England, I mean, even

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Speaker 1: the match against Columbia you mentioned it without the goalie

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Speaker 1: mishap right before halftime. They know that shot had next

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Speaker 1: year eating one point eighty four. They only created one

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Speaker 1: and a half expected goals for the entire match, so

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Speaker 1: they did next to nothing for a majority of the

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Speaker 1: match against Columbia. And you know, once they scored this

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Speaker 1: second goal and went ahead, they just went into prevention mode.

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Speaker 1: And this is kind of what leads me into, well,

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Speaker 1: my bet is going to be for this game. It's

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets that I make in the

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Speaker 1: men's game. But both teams to score, no, you can

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Speaker 1: find a minus one thirty six out there we go.

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Speaker 1: All of these teams are very much set up to

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Speaker 1: go in that type prevention mode once they get ahead.

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Speaker 1: We've seen it, you know, we haven't really seen it

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Speaker 1: throughout this group through the tournament with Australia, but they

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Speaker 1: do play out of four four two, they're fine being compact.

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Speaker 1: They're fine not having the ball, which England is probably

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Speaker 1: going to control a majority of the possession here. But

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Speaker 1: although England hasn't looked great offensively, I think we have

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Speaker 1: to give them credit where credits due because they have

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Speaker 1: been a good defensive outfit. They know they've only conceded twice.

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Speaker 1: The match against Columbia, I mean Columbia took fifteen shots,

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Speaker 1: twelve of them came from outside the box, and they

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Speaker 1: only created point six x chief of the entire match.

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Speaker 1: That's an incredibly impressive defensive performance. Then you go split

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Speaker 1: that to Australia. They can see the huge chance inside

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Speaker 1: the first fifteen minutes against France and then from the

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Speaker 1: next you know, one hundred or so minutes beyond that,

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Speaker 1: France took eighteen shots and only had one point two

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Speaker 1: expected goals. That's an impressive performance against a good French offense.

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Speaker 1: In Australia, you know they created the big scoring chance,

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Speaker 1: but for the entire one hundred and twenty minutes they

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Speaker 1: only had one point six expected goals. Like you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: with Sam Kerr, I got no idea. But with her anymore,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if she's going to come off the

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Speaker 1: bench she's going to start whatever it is. She wasn't

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Speaker 1: effective when she was on the pitch. One shot in

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Speaker 1: a little over an hour in that one. This is

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Speaker 1: Australia coming off one hundred and twenty minutes. I'm guessing

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Speaker 1: they're a little bit gassed coming into this one. So

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Speaker 1: I like both team to score No. Minus one thirty six.

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Speaker 1: I think both of these teams are very very good

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Speaker 1: defensive outfits outfits. England showed it obviously being a very

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Speaker 1: possession dominant team, in Australia is very very good at

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Speaker 1: sitting compact. So I'm expecting, you know, a lot of

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Speaker 1: caution coming out here, especially here in the first forty

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Speaker 1: five minutes. So if you maybe wanted to play some

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Speaker 1: under you know, zero goals in the first half, you

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Speaker 1: could play something like that. But I think what we

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Speaker 1: have on our hands is a pretty low event style

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Speaker 1: match here in the semifinals.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought it was interesting though. You know, England

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Speaker 2: in the in the quarterfinal against Columbia. I was watching

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Speaker 2: the match with a friend who doesn't really watch much soccer,

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Speaker 2: and I thought it was interesting the comment he made

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Speaker 2: maybe like fifteen twenty minutes to go, was that like, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 2: Columbia is going to score. Look at how many opportunities

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Speaker 2: they've had. In my soccer brain, I'm thinking, well, like,

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Speaker 2: they haven't really had a lot of opportunities in terms

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Speaker 2: of like shots and chances created. But then I thought

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Speaker 2: more about like what made him say that, and I

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Speaker 2: thought it was interesting the number of times that Colombia

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Speaker 2: got Caseto or Meira isolated out wide with the English

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Speaker 2: or with the English players running at them into the

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Speaker 2: penalty area or on the edge of the penalty area

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Speaker 2: with space was was kind of alarming for England. And

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Speaker 2: that's my concern here for them, because better a team

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Speaker 2: with you know, more transitional talent and maybe more connectivity

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Speaker 2: in the final third would have taken advantage. Columbia on

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Speaker 2: a better day might have taken advantage. Columbia just wasn't

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Speaker 2: sharp in that match in the final third and thus,

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Speaker 2: you know, the result was not a lot of chances created.

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Speaker 2: But it felt the whole second half like, yes, England

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Speaker 2: had more of the ball, but every time they lost it,

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Speaker 2: it felt like the Colombians had a chance to really

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Speaker 2: exploit them. And I think that that Australian side can

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Speaker 2: absolutely you know, find that space in those goals. So

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Speaker 2: I remember Australia is the team that beat England, ended

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Speaker 2: their unbeaten run like you mentioned.

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Speaker 1: So this is, you know, closer to.

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Speaker 2: A coin flood than the market is suggesting. And I

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Speaker 2: love the Aussies plus one thirty or better to advance.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see what happens, but yeah, I'm just hoping

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Speaker 1: we can get through with our Sweden ticket to the final.

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Speaker 1: And if not, man, we'll see what price we can

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Speaker 1: get on. We'll see what price we can get on

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Speaker 1: Spain against either of these two sides. But man, it's

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Speaker 1: going to be very interesting. So that will do it

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Speaker 1: for me and Anthony here for the Women's World Cup semifinals.

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Speaker 1: We will be back with our regular schedule programming on

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Speaker 1: Thursday morning with your match week two preview of the

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Speaker 1: Premier League. We'll also welcome in the Bundesliga and Siria,

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Speaker 1: along with match week two in League One and La Liga.

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Speaker 1: But for Anthony Dubundo, I'm VJ Cunning and thank you

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Speaker 1: to our sponsors from BET three six to five and

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Speaker 1: we'll see you on Thursday morning.

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