1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 2: I can just about that action. 3 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: All right, here we. 4 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 2: Go throwing out. 5 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: We're sitting up to cash toto. 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 2: That's all we see. 7 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: Most gamble is ships. When they go to gamble, they 8 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: go to win. That's incredible, big bank, small to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine. 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 2: If you want to fall. And we are underway. 11 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: What is up? Everybody? 12 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings. 13 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,480 Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris Raybond is our NFL Week 14 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 3: six betting preview. Gonna talk sides, totals, crops, moneyline, dog parlays, 15 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 3: touchdown parlays, and of course we're gonna build our Sunday 16 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: six pack of against the spreadbats with the help of 17 00:00:55,880 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 3: my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. Stucky 18 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 3: you stuck. You've been crushing it this year. How you 19 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 3: feeling heading into week number six? 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 2: Good? Good, one and two on the six pack last week? 21 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 2: But winning week, I gave you the broncos I wanted 22 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: to keep you in there, and I yeah hit also 23 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: hit my hit the money line dog total and and 24 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 2: my touchdown score. 25 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: Oh that I actually had that. I had tiggans as. 26 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 2: Well, So yeah, it was decent week. I had some 27 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 2: endgame joy, like I feel like it's finally turning around, 28 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 2: Like I had the Jags, I had the Panthers although 29 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 2: they were clearly the right side, but the Broncos so 30 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: like some final. I mean, it's been like a year 31 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 2: and a half where none of that has happened. And 32 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: so I had a bunch of games. Obviously lost the 33 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 2: Baker end game, but that's just betting against Baker, I guess. 34 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 2: But uh yeah, the uh it was good week, but 35 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 2: who cares. We're onto onto this week Thursday Night Football 36 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 2: Eagles Giants. I did play the Giants small at seven 37 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 2: and a half. I don't love it, but I make 38 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 2: it around six. I think you're around the same. Yeah yeah, 39 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 2: so like I have to, and I expect it to 40 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 2: be super low scoring. I agree with the undermove. So yeah, 41 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 2: you're telling me I get over a touchdown on which 42 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 2: would be a super low scoring game with a home 43 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 2: divisional dog. And I know that the Giants are depleted 44 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: at receiver, like they already lost neighbors, and what Slayton 45 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 2: is gonna be out? So I mean I assume they're 46 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 2: just gonna go. It looks like they're gonna be healthier 47 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: in the backfield with Taylor. I assume they're just gonna 48 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: go run heavy, and you can run on the Eagles 49 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: this year. And Carter might not play, which is massive, 50 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 2: and they're gonna go run heavy, throw to their backs, 51 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 2: throw to their tight ends, use darts legs, and you 52 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 2: can run on this Eagles defense with quarterbacks a bit 53 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 2: and just ugly this game up. But on the other 54 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 2: side of the ball, like I just don't trust his 55 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 2: Eagles team to get margin and so, and this Giants 56 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 2: defensive line could dominate this game, especially considering this Eagles 57 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 2: offensive line is just not the same. It's why Barkley 58 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: can't get going on the ground, which is important because 59 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 2: the Giants can't defend the run and they're not they're 60 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 2: not healthy, Dickerson will miss. It's not the same interior. 61 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 2: So this Giants defensive line could really cause some damage. 62 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: But really just taking a number in what I expect 63 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 2: to be a lower scoring game. I'm curious to see 64 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 2: the Giants decide to play more zone. They're playing like 65 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 2: Cover one about forty percent at the time, one of 66 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 2: the highest rates in the league. Hert's first man coverage 67 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 2: has been pretty good this year fifty two percent success 68 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 2: rate point four epa per play, both both around seventh 69 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 2: in the league. Against zone, he's been I mean abysmal 70 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 2: thirtieth in the league thirty seven percent success rate minus 71 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 2: point two epa per play. So curious to see what 72 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 2: they do there. But and then this will be a 73 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 2: super slow paced game. I mean, the Eagles are snapping 74 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: it with less than five seconds on the play clock 75 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 2: on over set tventy percent of their plays. That's the 76 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: highest rate by eons that we've seen in the last 77 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 2: five years. Giants aren't fast paced, so this will be 78 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: a slow pace game too. So yeah, I took I 79 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: took the dog. Even at current I would still lean under. Yeah, 80 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 2: this thing has like, I don't know, seventeen thirteen written 81 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: all over it. 82 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, the only real wild card is Dart. You know, 83 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 3: he's still a little tough to handicap. Like I unfortunately 84 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 3: didn't listen to you and took the Giants moneyline last week. 85 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: Felt good about it for like a quarter. 86 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: But yeah, he could touch it over here, which is concerning. 87 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 3: You could also like break out, you know, we just 88 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 3: don't like it's kind of He's one of those guys 89 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 3: that he's splashed enough to like say, Okay, he might 90 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 3: just have a breakout game, but he also could be yeah, 91 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 3: horrible with the turnovers. 92 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: And but like the. 93 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 2: Giants, not having receivers could help them because like I mean, 94 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: that sounds weird to say, but even with Slayton, they 95 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: weren't gonna win with their receivers against the Eagles corners, 96 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: and it just might make them go more conservative, feature 97 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: more of the backs, the QB, run game, the tight ends, 98 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 2: other places where they might have some advantages, although that's 99 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 2: not easy against the Fangio defense, you know, and it's 100 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 2: a young quarterback against the Fangio defense. I'm a short week, 101 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 2: which is an ideal, But just this Eagles offense they 102 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 2: go into the it's like there's one half every week 103 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 2: where they do nothing. It doesn't matter who they play, 104 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 2: they just they'll have a half where they go scoreless 105 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,160 Speaker 2: with like forty yards and there's just no rhythm to 106 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 2: this offense. I hate the play calling so yeah bad. 107 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, we had what one design running the second half 108 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 3: last week or something like that. 109 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 2: It was just Barkley only touched them like you want 110 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 2: to run on the Broncos and they just didn't run 111 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 2: it at all. So yeah, I don't get what they're doing. 112 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 2: So like this team laying over a touchdown on the 113 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 2: road with some offensive line injuries against a defensive line 114 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 2: that can dominate the game. Yeah, I took a small 115 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 2: It's very small because I hate I hate there'sday night football. 116 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 2: But I did play the Giants lean under. 117 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think I haven't taken it yet. 118 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 3: I probably will just take both because even if the 119 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 3: Giants don't, the Giants Eagles on it. Yeah, exactly, nothing's 120 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 3: gonna happen in the second half. Great, great game for 121 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 3: a live under any time, like if the Eagles, anytime 122 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 3: anyone scores, I just taken under uh in that game 123 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 3: because yeah, especially if it's the Eagles, because they if 124 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 3: they're up, it's just it's I don't know if the 125 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 3: Giants can do anything about. 126 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: It, but yeah, they're not going to play from way behind. 127 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, Jackson Dark's probably their best receiving. Should just put 128 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 3: Russell Wilson back in. He's dart it's like a running back. 129 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 3: So I don't even know, like Wandale Theo. 130 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: Johnson, you're gonna get a while, like fifteen targets. 131 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: Not looking great. 132 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 3: Not looking great, But let's jump into the Sunday six 133 00:06:53,520 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 3: pack presented by DraftKings. 134 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. 135 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: Nineteen twelve was the score You're up stuck for anyone 136 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 3: new to the show. Two points for our first two picks, 137 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 3: a point for our third, a point for our total 138 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 3: in the next segment, and if you sweep all of them, 139 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 3: y'all took it a bonus point. 140 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: Stuck, youre up first. Where you're going for week number six? 141 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: All right? With my first pick of the week six 142 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I am going with the San Francisco 143 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 2: forty nine or plus three at the Tampa Bay Bucks. 144 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 2: I am ready to get hurt again by Baker Mayfield, 145 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 2: although the one time I faded him as a favorite 146 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 2: of a field goal or more this year I did 147 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: cover with the Jets at home. The Bucks have been 148 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 2: one of the luckiest teams the NFL. The forty nine 149 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 2: and fairness are up there in the luck rankings as well, 150 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 2: But the Bucks are four and one. I guess so 151 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 2: many times they would have covered this number zero. So 152 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,559 Speaker 2: there's a disconnect between how good people think this Bucks 153 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: team is because of how clutch Baker Mayfield has been 154 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 2: and how he looks in the last minute or two. 155 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 2: But they'd yet to win a game by more than 156 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 2: three points. And it's, you know, like, in order to 157 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 2: win by margin here, you're gonna have to do more 158 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 2: than rely on Baker magic at the end of the game. 159 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 2: And I just don't I don't think that there's much 160 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 2: at all separating these teams. Number One, they've both been 161 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 2: fairly lucky, Bucks a little bit more so. There's also 162 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 2: still some potential regression. Turnover regression coming for Baker didn't 163 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: come last week and he was clean last week, but 164 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: for the full season, he's been pretty fortunate. Both of 165 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 2: these teams have injuries. Forty nine ers have some injuries. 166 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 2: On the defensive side of the ball. I assume Matt 167 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 2: Jones is going to play. He's been fine. He's a 168 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 2: top five and success rate. He's taking way fewer set 169 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 2: and way fewer pressures and holding onto the ball way 170 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 2: less than Brock Purty and just getting rid of it quick, 171 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 2: which is what you want to do against this Bucks defense. 172 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 2: And I mean the Bucks are beat up in the secondary, 173 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 2: The Bucks are beat up on the offensive line, in 174 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: the backfield at wide receiver, and I get Mayfield has 175 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 2: been amazing, but they've been uber reliant on exposive plays, 176 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 2: which is not the most consistent formula to rely on 177 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 2: moving forward. I mean, how many times are you going 178 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 2: to keep getting third and eighteen touchdowns and third and 179 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 2: fifteen conversions? And you're going to play a lot. You're 180 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 2: going to play the forty nine ers who are good 181 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:41,839 Speaker 2: against the run, and they're going to play a lot 182 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 2: of zone coverage on the back end, prevent the exposed 183 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 2: to play, make the Bucks work it down the field 184 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 2: with an offense that isn't at one hundred percent health. 185 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 2: So yeah, you're going to give me a field goal here. 186 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 2: Forty nine ers extra preparation for Shannan, which is important 187 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 2: while the Bucks are coming across the country again. And 188 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: this Bucks defense right now with all the injuries is 189 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,319 Speaker 2: just dreadful. I mean, what did the Seahawks average yards 190 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 2: per play last week? They basically won that game because 191 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 2: they won the turnover battle to nothing. They could not 192 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 2: get a stop. So yeah, I'm gonna take the forty 193 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 2: nine ers catching three. I mean, if you look, the 194 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 2: Bucks are one of the if you just go by DBA. 195 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 2: They're one of the worst four and one teams of 196 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:22,599 Speaker 2: all time. I think the other think they're eighteenth in 197 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:27,959 Speaker 2: DVA and forty nine Ers are sixteenth. So yeah, I 198 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 2: don't think that this should be at a field goal. 199 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 2: I don't think that there's almost anything separating these teams, 200 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 2: even with Mac Jones at quarterback, and the Bucks home field, 201 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 2: especially with extra rest for San Francisco, is certainly not 202 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 2: worth three points. So I'll get I'll take the field goal, 203 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,599 Speaker 2: give me the forty nine Ers. 204 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, Kyle shanan is getting back in his bag. 205 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 3: Would but I think the Rams, you know, that game 206 00:10:56,000 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 3: was kind of a good tune up for because. 207 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: Whatever reason, the Niners can't really run this year, and 208 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: so yeah. 209 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 2: Which neutralizes the strength of Tampa. We've stopp which stops 210 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 2: the run, and they have not been reliant on the 211 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 2: running game. Plus they could get Pearsall and Johnson back. Yeah, 212 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 2: I mean Pearsall, Jennings jigs. 213 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. 214 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts there? 215 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 3: I think that helps a lot, because right now Kyle 216 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 3: Shanahan is just willing this team to success by essentially 217 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 3: using Christian McCaffrey as his number one receiver like he's 218 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 3: just putting in a slot. He's coming out in weird 219 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 3: formations and just you know, he's doing a lot more 220 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 3: than he ever did. I think pre snap and and 221 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 3: this and this is what a backup. 222 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: Quarterback last week. So yeah, now you know. 223 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 2: I was gonna go back the originally wanted though. 224 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,719 Speaker 3: You're right now you're making me think about a money line, Doug. 225 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 3: I might have to pivot again. 226 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: Uh, but that's the story for a few segments from Now. 227 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 2: Have you heard anything on Pearsall or Jennings. 228 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 3: I it's it sounds like they were going to be back, 229 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 3: but it's all. They also said Perty was going to 230 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 3: be back. It was kind of one of those things 231 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 3: where we're gonna hold him out for the Thursday game 232 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 3: and have it back after the bye, but the fact 233 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 3: that Perty is kind of still shaky. It's see, I 234 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 3: didn't I didn't see the practice report because it's late. 235 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: It's usually I. 236 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 3: Didn't hear anything other than they were supposed to come back. 237 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 3: I was the guy that I kind of was hearing. 238 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 2: Now, I'm expecting at least one back, more likely than 239 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: not both, but injury reports not out yet. 240 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I jesus, We'll say okay at the same time, 241 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 3: but yeah, I doubt it a little bit. My fear 242 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 3: is with this game and this is I think this 243 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,959 Speaker 3: was your first picture. I couldn't have taken it from you. 244 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,599 Speaker 3: But my fear is that, yeah, we're sitting here, we 245 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 3: don't have a practice report, and next thing you know, 246 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 3: it's like Mac Jones. All these guys are out again 247 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 3: and he just turns back into Mac Jones. And you know, 248 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 3: this Bucks team doesn't need any more like luck than 249 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:56,719 Speaker 3: to face the forty nine Ers B squad. But uh, yeah, 250 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 3: I think I got a Super Bowl taken on the Niners. 251 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 3: Very high in them. So as long as somebody plays, 252 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 3: I like it because you just gotta you just gotta 253 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 3: do enough to Amacha book is gonna do something ridiculous 254 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 3: like did the Bucks just find another Hall of Fame receiver? 255 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 3: You know, it's like Mike Evans and now you just know, yeah, 256 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 3: we're gonna take another guy in the first round and boom, 257 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 3: he's unbelievable. 258 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree with your pick. 259 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: All right. 260 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 1: For my first. 261 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 3: Pick in the second overall of the week six Sunday 262 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 3: six pack, I'm going with the New York Football Jets 263 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 3: plus seven and a half. It is disgusting. They are winless. 264 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 3: They're still unlucky. They've still been unlucky. I don't know 265 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 3: the last time I've said this about the Jets, but 266 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 3: they're not as bad as they look, and usually they're 267 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 3: a lot worse than they look. 268 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 2: But net success, right, somehow, he's just. 269 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: Been a comedy of errors. 270 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 3: You got your quarterback knocked out at one point, you 271 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 3: got I mean you also faced Bills, Steelers, Like the 272 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 3: schedule is not too easy outside of the Dolphins, you know, Cowboys, 273 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 3: I have my doubts about too, But this team, overall, 274 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 3: they make these backbreaking mistakes, Like if you looked at 275 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 3: that game last week, Breisee Hall gets just clean clocked fumbles, 276 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 3: they're driving in the score, Dallas scores, and then the 277 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 3: Jets go three and now and Dallas scores again. This 278 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 3: all happens in like a minute and a half at 279 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 3: the end of the second half, and that you know, 280 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 3: two scores is what Dallas won. 281 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: But I know the Jets kind of patted it late. 282 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 3: But you know, it would have been a whole different 283 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 3: game because the Jets probably score on the other end, 284 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 3: So that essentially was a difference in the game right there. 285 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 3: But yeah, to your point, it's these teams are both 286 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 3: I think good defensively. 287 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: It's a low total game. 288 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 3: So seven and a half in a game like this, 289 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 3: you always want something like that. And then just at 290 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 3: this point in the year, everyone's making a lot about 291 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 3: the No. One's undefeated, But if we're betting, we want 292 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 3: to look more at the teams that are winless because 293 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 3: if you just blind bet winless underdogs at any point 294 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 3: in the season, Week two, all the way through until 295 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 3: you know these dogs, linn, you are one nineteen seventy 296 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 3: seven and two since twenty eighteen, sixty one percent, your 297 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 3: ROI is seventeen percent. And if you bet them and 298 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 3: they're single digit dogs, so not just oh man, they're 299 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 3: just terrible, terrible, terrible one oh three, fifty eight and 300 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 3: two over that same span sixty four percent with a 301 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 3: twenty three percent ROI. So this is just a spot 302 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 3: for me. And remember this is a neutral field. I 303 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 3: think the Bronc I do give the Broncos a slight, 304 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 3: like a little boost just because Sean Payton did this 305 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 3: last year. You know, they they kind of they kind 306 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 3: of know what to expect a little more. But the 307 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 3: Jets were out there too, just different different situation, different 308 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 3: coaching staff or whatever. But overall good defenses. Jets been 309 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 3: very unlucky. I think the numbers, what are they thirty two, 310 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 3: I think dead last in the left rank, Yeah they are. 311 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 2: They should have beat the Dolphins, they should have beat 312 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: the Steelers. 313 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 3: It's and then I look at this matchup Sauce Gardner 314 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 3: on court and Sutton. That should be successful. Broncos can 315 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 3: do the same thing. But justin you know, our guy 316 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 3: Nick different actually pointed out to me that Fields has 317 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 3: played really well against man coverage and the Broncos, you know, 318 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 3: they've been playing they just they've been playing a ton 319 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 3: of man this year. Uh, they're top three in man 320 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 3: covered great. Now, that's something that you could always adjust 321 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 3: and trump. 322 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 2: And you know the team did that last week against 323 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 2: the second half. 324 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: Yeah so I so. 325 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 3: But that makes me wonder if they go, you know, 326 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 3: if they don't do that again. But either way, I 327 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 3: think this Jet team is just very has been very unlucky. 328 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 3: The penalties, the Jets have just been called for backbreaking penalties. 329 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 3: They're among the top of the league, and penalty yardage 330 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 3: and penalties called against so neutral field you're talking about 331 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 3: the Broncos now are a full eight points essentially better 332 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 3: than the Jets on their neutral field. I can't get there. 333 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 3: You know, bo Nicks is a little fields like at times. 334 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 3: You know, he's just his negative plays just don't end 335 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 3: in this sacks as much because he can get the 336 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 3: ball out quicker, but he has these inexplicable moments where 337 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 3: just doesn't look good and the ball's going out of 338 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 3: bounds and he's running but he's not getting anywhere. So 339 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 3: I just think this this line is way too inflated. 340 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 3: Love the spot for the Jets win with dogs, something 341 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 3: I'm bet on every week. 342 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean I tried to win this doll 343 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 2: last week. Well technically it won't even fit in this 344 00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 2: in that data set because I've got him plus three. 345 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,959 Speaker 2: They closed mind one and a half and get blown out. 346 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 2: There's I oh my god, I might I might join 347 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 2: you on the service A good by Loo Cell high spot. 348 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 2: Broncos off the win against Philly. Jets are winless, get 349 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:19,919 Speaker 2: blown out at home, neutral field, lower scoring game. I 350 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 2: will say the Jets defense is I'm done with the 351 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 2: Jets defense. They are atrocious. I mean that was an 352 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 2: embarrassing effort. Last week. You're playing a team that was 353 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 2: without four starting offensive linemen, without two of their best receivers, 354 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 2: and you can't get a stop. I'm done with their defense. 355 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 2: Their defense, to me, is one of the worst in 356 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 2: the league. The fall off has been incredible. Additionally, they 357 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 2: can't stop running quarterbacks, so they can't do it. They 358 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 2: can't stop anything. They can't tackle. So I mean even 359 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: with bow Knicks, I know that the the Broncos have 360 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 2: a guard injury, but other than that, they're pretty healthy. 361 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 2: I think anyone can move the ball. I mean, think 362 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 2: about the two games that Jets had to win or 363 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 2: almost won. It was shootout versus the Steelers and a 364 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 2: higher scoring game against the Dolphins. So they're gonna have 365 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 2: to do it with their offense. That's where my that's 366 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 2: where the problem comes in for me, because Broncos are 367 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 2: excellent against mobile quarterbacks, probably the best defense in the 368 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 2: league at limiting quarterback running game. If certain takes out 369 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson, you can run a little bit. But like 370 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 2: with on the Broncos, but I mean, what other recourse 371 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,199 Speaker 2: does do the Jets have? Like if you just you 372 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 2: have the best corner in the league taking them away 373 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 2: your only receiver. That's what makes it tough for me. 374 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 2: If the Jets fall behind here, it's gonna get ugly. 375 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 2: But I do make it under a touchdown. Jets have 376 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 2: been unlucky, like you said, penalties, close games, turnovers, there's 377 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 2: some major turnover regression. They've been extremely unlucky there. So 378 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 2: it's Jets or nothing. I do think the unders probably 379 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 2: look like I don't. How are the Jets moving the 380 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 2: ball here consistently? 381 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean so the thing of the thing that 382 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: I wanted to mention that how. 383 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: Do you envision the Jets moving the ball in this game? 384 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 3: So that's actually I think number one. I think Taylor 385 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 3: could you know, play a bigger role. But it's gonna 386 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 3: be the running backs. Let's be serious. But I'm not 387 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 3: taking the Jets. I talked to it. I actually said 388 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 3: the nick I said never when you backed the number one. 389 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 3: The only rule, the only rule about backing justin fields 390 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 3: or justin fields quarterback team is never convince yourself that 391 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 3: you're gonna win the bet because of justin fields, because 392 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 3: you're not. This is I actually think the Jets defense 393 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,120 Speaker 3: is a little bit underrated. 394 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 2: What could they do well, they don't do anything good. 395 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 3: Well, I mean they've had injuries, and I mean we'll see, 396 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: we'll see what happens with Johnson still if he so 397 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 3: it's still it's still could be bad. 398 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: But all that being said. 399 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 2: I mean they are thing the fifth and defense. 400 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: That's right. 401 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 3: They just have zero turnovers. We know turnovers will regress 402 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 3: and boting it when you talk about like the Broncos 403 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 3: are one of those teams that they could just have 404 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 3: those inexplicable turnovers with built with bo Nicks, if Sean 405 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 3: Payton could just make stupid calls and then every every week, 406 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 3: when do we Sean Payton's. 407 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: Like, yeah, I made a bad call right there. 408 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 3: So I just think this is like you're telling me 409 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,719 Speaker 3: the Rons are eight points better on the neutral field. 410 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 1: Uh, Like this is a team. 411 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 3: That is just kind of floating around, you know, five 412 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 3: hundred head headed into last week, and then they beat 413 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 3: the Eagles, who are ridiculously overrated. 414 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: Like the Eagles offense, it's not too much better than 415 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: the Jets. 416 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 3: The Jets offense is probably better than the Eagles at 417 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 3: this point in terms of actual production, you know, maybe 418 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 3: maybe not talent. 419 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 2: The Jets are top ten success right on offensive defense. 420 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, like I can't ignore that. 421 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 3: And then like turnovers regress, Like the Jets have zero. 422 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 3: They're only team in the league, only defense in the 423 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 3: league with zero turner. So yeah, this is a this 424 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 3: is a play that I have to make. It's just 425 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 3: how how I bet it's in my veins man, But yeah, 426 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 3: it's ugly, just. 427 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 2: Because I always tell you to account of matchup and like, 428 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 2: I'm just trying to figure out how the Jets are 429 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 2: going to move the ball because their roster is constructed 430 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 2: so poorly. They just have one receiver. And then you're 431 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 2: going up against certain and you now have one basically 432 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 2: one back in Breeze Hall, and you're playing a team 433 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 2: that can defend the quarterback run with all of its 434 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 2: speed as well as anybody. And they're probably going to 435 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 2: go more zone here because of that. And I mean, 436 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 2: obviously every team is going to mix it up, but 437 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 2: I would assume more of a zone heavy split than 438 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 2: they usually do. And then you, I mean, you have 439 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 2: Jermaine Johnson, Quentin Williams's banged up. The linebackers on the 440 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 2: Jets right now are so bad. I mean, is Michael 441 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 2: Carter gonna play we'll see, but the secondary beside Sauce 442 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 2: to me is bad. I don't know, but I agree 443 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 2: at seven and a half its Jets are nothing all 444 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 2: right for my. 445 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: Seon dying last year. Yeah yeah, for my second. 446 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 2: Talk about the Jets anymore. For my second pick in 447 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,160 Speaker 2: the third overall of the week six Sunday six pack, 448 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 2: I'm going with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two and 449 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 2: a half at home against the Detroit Lions. I faded 450 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,239 Speaker 2: the Chiefs last week. I still have questions about their 451 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,640 Speaker 2: offense was part of the reason I'm a believer now. 452 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 2: I mean, they had a sixty four percent success rate, 453 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 2: the highest of the year, and I mean Thornton seems 454 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 2: to be the real deal as a downfield threat. Worthy 455 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 2: obviously makes a big difference, and the offense looked like, 456 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 2: look at Mahomes's a dot. It's back to your twenty 457 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:00,959 Speaker 2: twenty two levels. They're throwing downfield. This Chiefs offense might 458 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,400 Speaker 2: be back, especially once Rice comes back, but they're going 459 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 2: up against the Lions defense that has no secondary left. 460 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,239 Speaker 2: So what are the Lions going to do here? They 461 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 2: play a lot of man coverage and they blitz a lot. 462 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 2: They played more zone last week because they don't have 463 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,719 Speaker 2: any corners left. And if Jake Browning didn't have the 464 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 2: worst game of all time, they could have lost. I mean, 465 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 2: Jake Browning basically handed them twenty one points on He 466 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,479 Speaker 2: couldn't even throw a catchable ball in the first half 467 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 2: on one on ones in the outside. It was the 468 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 2: most embarrassing first the most embarrassing half football I've ever 469 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 2: seen from a quarterback. He couldn't read the defense, he 470 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 2: couldn't throw a catchable ball. I've never seen anything like 471 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 2: it for a guy who's had some success in the NFL. 472 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 2: And they basically just handed the Lions that game. And 473 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 2: by the way, speaking of the Lions, I get that 474 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 2: they just cover every week so people can just bet them, 475 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 2: and I guess I'll just lose money. But I mean, 476 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,360 Speaker 2: this is a team that you know, after Week one 477 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 2: everyone said, no, they're done, they're cooked, and now four 478 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 2: weeks later everyone is saying, oh, they're back, nothing has changed. 479 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 2: Who are they? 480 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:10,680 Speaker 1: Do you know? 481 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,640 Speaker 2: They played? They played the Bears at home, missing all 482 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:17,440 Speaker 2: their entire secondary. They played the current state of the 483 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 2: Ravens with just lamar Jack with the worst defense in 484 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 2: the league. Then they played the Browns with Joe Flacco 485 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 2: who's now traded, and then they played the Bengals with 486 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 2: Jake Browning who was so bad they had a trade 487 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,120 Speaker 2: for Joe Flacco who was benched. Like this four game 488 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 2: stretch has been an absolute joke, and they're beat up. 489 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 2: Taylor Decker might not go aman ros Saint Brown didn't 490 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,640 Speaker 2: even practice today. I don't know what's going on there, 491 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 2: but I assume he's gonna play. But Decker would be 492 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 2: a big loss. And this is a desperation spot for 493 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 2: the Chiefs. At home. I think the offense is back 494 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 2: and Mahome. You're gonna blitz Mahomes. You can't play man 495 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 2: against these speedy receivers with your I mean they able 496 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 2: to have three receivers, you could runder under four to three. 497 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 2: You can't play man with the current state of or secondary. 498 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 2: So you're gonna play zone and try to blitz. You 499 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 2: can't do that against Mahomes. So I don't know how 500 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:19,160 Speaker 2: this Lion's defense is gonna get stops, and uh, I'm 501 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 2: gonna trust Spagnola to do enough to get pressure on 502 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,879 Speaker 2: Golf for some intimate some mistakes. So yeah, I like 503 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 2: the Chiefs as a great spot. Lions are way more 504 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 2: beat up, and I do think the Chiefs offense is back. 505 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 2: Give me Kansas City at home. 506 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 3: Yeah they should win here. But I mean the Lions 507 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 3: have been holding it together. But to your point, can't 508 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 3: really tell too much because of the because of the 509 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 3: strength of schedule. 510 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: But yeah, everyone everyone is back on the Lions. I think. Yeah. 511 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 3: I was just I was just reading about something like, oh, yeah, 512 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 3: they're they're They're essentially going to the Super Bowl. 513 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 1: Back up, guys. 514 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,360 Speaker 2: I mean, they've play they they've played the last two quarterbacks. 515 00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 2: They play played Browning, and they played the two most 516 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 2: beat up defenses at the time in the league with 517 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:06,480 Speaker 2: the Ravens and the Bears. And then they played Browning 518 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 2: and Flacco. This is and now, and their secondary is 519 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 2: even more beat up now. They lost Arnold dorseys Olt. 520 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 2: I mean, Arnold hasn't been great, but you have no 521 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 2: bodies left. So yeah, I'll take the Chiefs to get 522 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 2: done for what it's worth. I did moneyline part I 523 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 2: did a rare money line parlay of the Chiefs and 524 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 2: the Packers. I'll just knock that game out right now. 525 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 2: The Bengals somehow got the only quarterback in the league 526 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 2: that's been worse for his zone coverage than Jake Browning 527 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 2: and the only quarterback who creates more pressures on his 528 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 2: own than Jake Browning and Joe Flacco, who the Packers 529 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 2: already saw Flaco's to come in this week. Learn the offense. 530 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,920 Speaker 2: Packers off of a bye the floor with extra rest, 531 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 2: the Bengals can't stop a nosebleed. How's Flacco going to 532 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 2: deal with this pressure? I don't know, He's gonna make mistakes. 533 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 2: Maybe Higgins and Chase Off a big day. But yeah, 534 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,760 Speaker 2: I even money. The reason I did that is because 535 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 2: Dan Campbell just does weird shit in these games. So 536 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 2: you can see him like going for two or something 537 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 2: and this falling on a weird number. So I did 538 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,639 Speaker 2: money on parlay. I don't recommend all weks doing that, 539 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 2: but I do think the Packers are pretty safe this week. 540 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 1: Yeah they should be. 541 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,879 Speaker 3: I mean they were safe for fifty six minutes the 542 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 3: first time against Faco. 543 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 1: They and then they tie the I mean. 544 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 2: They were going up against an elite defense on the road, 545 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 2: that's the difference. This is the worst defense in the 546 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 2: league and they should be healthier on the offensive line. 547 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 2: So but yeah, for the contest for the six pack 548 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 2: give me Chiefs minus two and a half. 549 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 3: The Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings and in 550 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 3: partnership with DraftKings. We'd like to tell you that the 551 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 3: next great touchdown is coming and you can bet on 552 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 3: it right now. New customers can bet five dollars and 553 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 3: get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. That's right, New customers, 554 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 3: turned five bucks into two hundred if your bet wins 555 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 3: paid instant in bonus bets. To get started, use promo 556 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 3: code Action Network when signing up. Once more, use Action 557 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 3: Network when signing up with DraftKings to get on board. 558 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 3: The crown is yours all right, I'll get to my 559 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 3: second pick in a moment. Just a reminder, we have 560 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 3: a special promo for those of you thinking of subscribing 561 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 3: to Action Pro. For a limited time, you can get 562 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 3: thirty three percent off a monthly subscription, So for the 563 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 3: price of a week, you get a whole month's worth 564 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 3: of access. Get our NFL prop experts like Sean Kerner 565 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 3: Nick Giffen all their picks instantly, so you always get 566 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 3: the best number because they those guys do move the lines. 567 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 3: Plus MLB playoffs are happening nightly. College football is in 568 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 3: full swing, so now it's a great time to experience 569 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 3: all that Action Pro has to offer. Just at the 570 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,080 Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com slash Pro today to get thirty three 571 00:29:55,440 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 3: percent off a monthly subscription. All right, if you thing 572 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 3: you could get any more disgusting than the Jets, you're. 573 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 1: A man. You're into ue. 574 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 3: Because for my second pick, the fourth overall of the 575 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 3: week six Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Baltimore 576 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 3: Ravens BLUs seven and a half at home against the Rams. Now, 577 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 3: the Ravens did no way else to say that they 578 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 3: don't have the best player in the league at quarterback, 579 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 3: and they didn't look like they're gonna get him back. 580 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 3: And half of their or three quarters of the defense 581 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 3: has been injured, so they're not in they're not in 582 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 3: good form. But I do think they'll be better this 583 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 3: week than they were last week. I think, you know, 584 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 3: some of the trade. I think the move for you know, 585 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 3: Gardner Johnson because he's gonna actually play, or they just 586 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 3: gonna do the thing where they signed to the practice 587 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 3: squad and he doesn't and he doesn't. 588 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 2: Actually I don't know yet, I don't know anything that's 589 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 2: going on all the tame. I mean, the secondary right 590 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 2: now is the biggest concern. I mean, because if you 591 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 2: don't have a lousier Humphrey Hamilton, and you know you 592 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,960 Speaker 2: already have Rdris Washington's already on IR and you're going 593 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 2: up against these receivers and your defensive line is a 594 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 2: joke and you can't get any pressure and Rocons I 595 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 2: think gonna be out so and the whole defense you have, 596 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 2: the whole defensive line is in shambles. I don't know, 597 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 2: I don't know what they're gonna do. Yeah, I mean 598 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 2: you are this is I couldn't do this. They're the 599 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 2: worst right now, depending on how I think who's gonna play. 600 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 2: I think they're the worst defense in the league right now. 601 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 2: I mean, look at the look at the look at 602 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:43,280 Speaker 2: the me and the Texans look like and yeah, I 603 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 2: you have the Ramscaday's usually good in these spots on 604 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 2: the East coast, they have extra rest. 605 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 1: I mean, line is ridiculous. 606 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm at slightly under seven, but I don't 607 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 2: have full confidence in like number one, who's all gonna play? 608 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 2: How how to value all these cluster injuries on the 609 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,840 Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball. Lamar might be worthy to 610 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 2: more than I thought I compared to Rush because the deep, 611 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 2: the whole offense has to change, which is another thing. 612 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 2: It's just a completely different offense and you want to 613 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 2: attack the Rams secondary, but it's Cooper Rush. So like 614 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 2: so you're just taking the number here, and I mean, 615 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 2: it's a it's a good by low spot on the 616 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 2: team off of a blow out, but I don't know 617 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 2: if I can get there. I mean, I'm hoping. I hope, 618 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 2: for your sake and the show's sake, I'm going to 619 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 2: root from the cover and I'm gonna root from the 620 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 2: wings my team. But from a betting perspective, I hope 621 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 2: My hope was that they get blown out here and 622 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 2: then I'm going to come in and buy them to 623 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl. 624 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 3: So first, yeah, and to that point, right now, they're 625 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,719 Speaker 3: still favored to win the division, right and so this 626 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,160 Speaker 3: is this is still a team that I just think 627 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 3: this is the bottom of the market for the Ravens. 628 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 3: I mean, you're talking about a Rams team at home 629 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,720 Speaker 3: was somehow favored by what eight eight and a half 630 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 3: at one point against the against the Niners. Lose that 631 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 3: game somehow now they're going on the road across the country. 632 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: And they're just it's the same number again, just Rave. 633 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 1: What do we know about this Ravens team? 634 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 3: Well coached and generally they can they make it work. 635 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 3: This happens to them way too often. I think Harball 636 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 3: was another week like they needed. They needed that against 637 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 3: the Texans, they needed that wake up call. Harbor I 638 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 3: was like, yeah, I'm gonna try everything. I still think 639 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 3: they can, you know, kind of muck up this game. 640 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 3: Use Derrick Henry. I think that he's like Derek Henry 641 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 3: has to regress at some point. I think if they're 642 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,959 Speaker 3: more committed, you know now that you know, you had 643 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 3: a week of rush and rush by I mean some 644 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,960 Speaker 3: of his turnovers not totally on him, and you look 645 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 3: at his uh, his underlying metrics they were decent. 646 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 2: Oh man, you're got a decent rush underlying that. 647 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 3: I mean, it was just one it was just one game. 648 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 3: But it wasn't like it wasn't like who am I 649 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,279 Speaker 3: thinking of? It was like a Browning level worry for me, 650 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,360 Speaker 3: like that, like Browning has just been terrible. It's probably 651 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 3: scared everyone for playing any back. So rush In success 652 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,959 Speaker 3: rate was at around forty seven percent. That's like mid pack, 653 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 3: we like twenty fifth but out of forty quarterbacks. So 654 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 3: he's now at the bottom of EPA plus completion percentage 655 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,719 Speaker 3: over expectation composite. 656 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 2: He is just say you think the line is too high. Yeah, 657 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 2: it is taking the Ravens and trusting Harball. We don't 658 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 2: need you gont to get into that. Under the hood. 659 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:45,160 Speaker 3: On Cooper Rush, I just expected it to be abysmal, 660 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 3: and it was like just like like twenty fifth to 661 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 3: thirtieth percentile bad, not like bottom of the barrel bad. 662 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 3: So when you look at this Rams team that they 663 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 3: still have issues scoring in the red zone at times, they. 664 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 1: Still, you know, just inexplict like that. 665 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 3: I think that was their only stuff of the game 666 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,719 Speaker 3: was on that Kirn Williams run at the end. 667 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 1: But uh, this this Rams team. 668 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 3: I know McVay has been good in the past, but 669 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 3: I just I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens win 670 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:13,120 Speaker 3: this game. 671 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: I don't think. 672 00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 3: Rush is like the worst quarterback. I think that's why 673 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,880 Speaker 3: they pivoted away from just using like a running quarterback. 674 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,439 Speaker 3: Uh probably elevate Huntley again. So if if it does 675 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 3: get bad, I think we I think we do get rushed, 676 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 3: I mean hunt we. So I just think this week 677 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 3: defense is going to be better, more time to prepare, 678 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,919 Speaker 3: recommit to just a power run game, short in the game, 679 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,359 Speaker 3: and uh yeah, I think I think the Ravens are 680 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 3: a live dog here. 681 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: But where are you going for your third? 682 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, for the Ravens super Bowl. After the Rams they 683 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,959 Speaker 2: get a buye, then they'll get healthier, get Lamar back. 684 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 2: I think the one thing that you know, the mention 685 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 2: with the plus seven half, there is an outside chance 686 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,359 Speaker 2: Lamar plays. I don't think he is, and he's in 687 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,359 Speaker 2: practice today, but you never know. After the bye they 688 00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:02,760 Speaker 2: go Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals, Pats. 689 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 2: They could rattle off like they should. They could be 690 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 2: like one in five and ten and five before you 691 00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,319 Speaker 2: know it, and then be back to like being the 692 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,399 Speaker 2: super Bowl favorite. So I'll be looking. Maybe I'll throw 693 00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,719 Speaker 2: like a little bit, a tiny tiny bit of money 694 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:18,440 Speaker 2: on the Ravens and the super Bowl this week. I 695 00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:19,319 Speaker 2: don't know, the probably like. 696 00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 1: They just in case the win, yeah exactly, and then if. 697 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 2: They lose, come back with a bigger position. Yeah, all right, 698 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,719 Speaker 2: for my third pick any fifth overall. The week six 699 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 2: Sunday six back, I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks plus 700 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 2: one and a half at the Jacksonville Jaguars. I love 701 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 2: the Jags team, been betting them all year, but I 702 00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,239 Speaker 2: think this is the time to fade them. You want 703 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:42,959 Speaker 2: to talk about a turn of a regression, It's coming 704 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:47,839 Speaker 2: for the Jags. Or defense can't keep getting a pick, 705 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 2: sixes and four takeaways every single week. They lead the 706 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,160 Speaker 2: entire league by wide margin and EPA off of turnovers. 707 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,920 Speaker 2: The offense also has some injuries on the offensive line. 708 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,360 Speaker 2: Brenton Strange I think is a very underrated loss. He 709 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:08,520 Speaker 2: went on ir short week off a huge emotional win, 710 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 2: and Seattle's defense I think should be healthier. That's to 711 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 2: burn them against Baker. Another reason why this Bucks team. 712 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 2: If you look last week, Seattle went in. I played 713 00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,440 Speaker 2: the Seahawks minus two and a half. Last week. They 714 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,399 Speaker 2: went in a little more banged up than they thought, 715 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 2: and then they got hurt all their they got hurt 716 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 2: during the game. They'd like their secondary was in absolute 717 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,319 Speaker 2: shambles last week. But there's a chance they get to 718 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 2: Marcus Lawrence back. There's a chance they get a couple 719 00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 2: of guys in their secondary back, which would be big, 720 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 2: but they're gonna look, the JAG's not gonna be able 721 00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,160 Speaker 2: to run the ball here in Seattle. Trevor Lawrence hasn't 722 00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 2: been great, Like it's all scheme stuff from Liam Cohen 723 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,480 Speaker 2: and you know has been great. It's Sam Donold. I mean, 724 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,560 Speaker 2: you just can't argue at this point he's number one 725 00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 2: in EPA plus completion percentage of expectation number one and 726 00:37:55,760 --> 00:38:00,080 Speaker 2: success rate number one and adjusted EPA per play, and 727 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,360 Speaker 2: he's also been the best quarterback in the league against zone. 728 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 2: That's what the Jags run a ton of. And I 729 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 2: don't think Walker, Trayvon Walker is going to play again. 730 00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,120 Speaker 2: Then I think they're gonna ease him back and they'll 731 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,720 Speaker 2: probably come back the following game. And without Trayvon Walker. 732 00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:19,240 Speaker 2: It was very noticeable against the Chiefs with this defense 733 00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,040 Speaker 2: that gave up a sixty four percent success right, they 734 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,680 Speaker 2: couldn't get any pressure. Their pressure aight falf A Cliff 735 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,799 Speaker 2: was twenty three point nine percent season low by far. 736 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 2: So this this Seahawks offense is cooking. Donald's playing at 737 00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,720 Speaker 2: an extremely high level. They're going to get a defense 738 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,319 Speaker 2: I believe without Walker, that can't really generate pressure, that 739 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,240 Speaker 2: has a hole on the outside at one corner spot 740 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:45,120 Speaker 2: at times, it's going to play a ton of zone. 741 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:49,280 Speaker 2: Donald's been eating that up turnover regression for the Jags 742 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,080 Speaker 2: short week. I think Seattle should be healthy on the 743 00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 2: defense side of the ball, but I think their defense 744 00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,520 Speaker 2: matches up well. So yeah, I'm going to take the 745 00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 2: one and a half with the Seahawks on the road. 746 00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's this is what It's just. I need to 747 00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,560 Speaker 3: know exactly who's playing for the because this is a lot. 748 00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,399 Speaker 3: You know, it's not a seven and a half, it's 749 00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 3: one and a half. But if if they get at 750 00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,680 Speaker 3: least at least one more guy back in the secondary 751 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,360 Speaker 3: and yeah, Lawrence, I think is there was this cruster 752 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,840 Speaker 3: injuries there too, uh, you know, D line and secondary, 753 00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,640 Speaker 3: So I don't know where this defense is at this point. 754 00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,360 Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean McDonald said that Witherspoon and Lawrence 755 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:33,200 Speaker 2: will go out to practice midweek. Love later in the week. 756 00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 2: Derek Fault is not going to play, Yeah, but I 757 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,719 Speaker 2: think that they're I think Witherspoon and Lawrence are gonna play. 758 00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,239 Speaker 2: I'm not sure on Love, and I think that would 759 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 2: be enough for me. 760 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it could get It could because the Jaguars, Yes, 761 00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,399 Speaker 3: they've been lucky on defense, but I would say they've 762 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 3: been pretty unlucky in offense, like until I guess, you know, 763 00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,480 Speaker 3: getting an extra touchdown off of well play from the 764 00:39:59,480 --> 00:39:59,919 Speaker 3: one yard. 765 00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,839 Speaker 2: No, I agree, but the passing offense hasn't been like 766 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:08,560 Speaker 2: operating at a elite levels, and they need to get 767 00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,840 Speaker 2: their run game going like that's Cohen's The whole offense 768 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,600 Speaker 2: is based off of that, and I don't think they're 769 00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,239 Speaker 2: gonna be able to do that against Seattle. So yeah, 770 00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 2: I'm just taking the one and a half. But look, 771 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,319 Speaker 2: it's Wednesday. It is my third pick. The other ones 772 00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,560 Speaker 2: I thought of, we'll talk about in a bit. Where 773 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 2: are you going for your the final pick? 774 00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 3: My third or final pick, the sixth overall of the 775 00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 3: week six Sunday six pack, going with the Carolina Panthers 776 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,880 Speaker 3: plus a juiced up three and a half. See if 777 00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:40,759 Speaker 3: you could get that, I would prefer that to just 778 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:42,319 Speaker 3: the three, but. 779 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,400 Speaker 2: You can get like minus one twenty out there, so 780 00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:45,880 Speaker 2: I'll give it to you for the contest. I'll give 781 00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,960 Speaker 2: you a three and a half minus one twenty, all right, 782 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,399 Speaker 2: let's do it because you willed me at half point 783 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,120 Speaker 2: somewhere down the line. 784 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, we do this every year. You got it, You got. 785 00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:56,880 Speaker 2: It a year on each side. 786 00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:57,920 Speaker 1: Panthers. 787 00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:04,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, Panthers last week started off really rough turnovers for 788 00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:08,520 Speaker 3: Bryce Young, same old. But I do think that there 789 00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 3: were some important changes for the Panthers, you know, being 790 00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:16,719 Speaker 3: made kind of under the radar. Number one, whether two 791 00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:18,600 Speaker 3: bag plays or not. I think, you know, pivoting to 792 00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:22,120 Speaker 3: more doubtle it was a smart move. But they also 793 00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,720 Speaker 3: kind of changed up a lot of things on defense 794 00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,759 Speaker 3: in terms of you know, guys, they were playing in 795 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,960 Speaker 3: certain spots, and I think it really did help because 796 00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,920 Speaker 3: that you know, Miami got some short feels and they 797 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,840 Speaker 3: go up seventeen to nothing, and they were struggling to 798 00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:39,040 Speaker 3: score for I think they was like five straight, five 799 00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:40,200 Speaker 3: straight punts or something like that. 800 00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,840 Speaker 2: At one point, after they went up seventeen to nothing, 801 00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,600 Speaker 2: they had one exposive play to while yep, the rest 802 00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,280 Speaker 2: of their plays was twenty five twenty plays for twenty 803 00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:50,040 Speaker 2: five yards. 804 00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:51,200 Speaker 1: Ridiculous. 805 00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:55,360 Speaker 3: And we've kind of seen the flashes of this Panther defense, 806 00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,680 Speaker 3: and so it's not something I want to completely ignore 807 00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 3: because we saw them pitch the shout out to the Falcons, 808 00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,239 Speaker 3: and you look at this both of these teams. So 809 00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,239 Speaker 3: you look at the Panthers and they've been a lot 810 00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:09,160 Speaker 3: better defensively at home. 811 00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:13,719 Speaker 1: Now that makes sense. That just happens with certain teams. 812 00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,200 Speaker 3: You know, you got the crowd, you get more mistakes 813 00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:20,040 Speaker 3: by the opposing offense. And Dallas has not been as 814 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,759 Speaker 3: good on the road offensively. I know Dallas is you 815 00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,800 Speaker 3: know up there in offense. But like I said, the 816 00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:30,479 Speaker 3: Jets essentially gave the Cowboys fourteen points in a span 817 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:31,879 Speaker 3: of like a minute at the end of the half 818 00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,120 Speaker 3: when they really shouldn't have had any points. The Jets 819 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,239 Speaker 3: should have just been able to either to just run 820 00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,400 Speaker 3: out that clock or you know, get close to it 821 00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:41,799 Speaker 3: and not leave the Cowboys with just you know time 822 00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,719 Speaker 3: to score twice. Then they get a you know, the 823 00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 3: game before that was what the Bears. Fourteen points the 824 00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,160 Speaker 3: Cowboys put up against the Bears, and they should. 825 00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,279 Speaker 2: Have lost it home to the Giants. I mean, let's 826 00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,800 Speaker 2: be real that the Cowboys, there are two wins on 827 00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:58,960 Speaker 2: the year against the Jets and Giants, right. 828 00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:00,719 Speaker 1: That's concerned to pay are just as bad. 829 00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:04,279 Speaker 3: But they actually don't look just as bad to me, uh, 830 00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,320 Speaker 3: based on some of the changes they made, because also 831 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:12,279 Speaker 3: you got you got with get that, and he's it 832 00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,799 Speaker 3: sounds like he probably is still weak to week. 833 00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:18,960 Speaker 1: I would say another week. But Horn, Yeah, that's all 834 00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:19,560 Speaker 1: I was about to say. 835 00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,080 Speaker 3: So the thing that actually is more important than straight 836 00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,800 Speaker 3: up getting cokerback, who I mean might be their second 837 00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,640 Speaker 3: best receiver, but is we Get has speed. 838 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:31,800 Speaker 1: Horn has speed. 839 00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:36,080 Speaker 3: But those guys were just inactive, like a Horn was 840 00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,920 Speaker 3: a healthy scratch, and then we Get was missing games. 841 00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,880 Speaker 3: The Panthers had no speed on the field at all, 842 00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,480 Speaker 3: because you know, technic Mellan is great, but it's like 843 00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,960 Speaker 3: you just you're just gonna bog down. So uh, I 844 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,759 Speaker 3: think you know, adding Horn and there there sounds like 845 00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,279 Speaker 3: he's gonna be even bigger part of the game play. 846 00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:54,600 Speaker 3: So now you're kind of you have a little bit 847 00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,400 Speaker 3: of the unknown, and you're still going against the defense 848 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:02,920 Speaker 3: that is essentially right there with the league's worst defenses. 849 00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,319 Speaker 3: I mean, they gave up four hundred they gave up 850 00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,880 Speaker 3: four hundred and fifty plus yard to Russell Wilson and 851 00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:11,840 Speaker 3: then and he got benched the week here, But this 852 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,440 Speaker 3: is not a defense that's good, good, just because you know, 853 00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,200 Speaker 3: they forced to fumble on Bresee Hall and the Jets 854 00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,160 Speaker 3: just got down on themselves and had a melt out. 855 00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:25,239 Speaker 3: So I think this Dallas team, you know, they'll struggle defensively. 856 00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,080 Speaker 3: I don't think you're getting Lamb and Turpin back this week. 857 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:34,240 Speaker 3: Davonte Williams playing a little bit above his head, especially 858 00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,640 Speaker 3: now that your the offensive line injuries are adding up. 859 00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,640 Speaker 3: I mean there's a there's an angle last week where 860 00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,080 Speaker 3: he just ended up breaking off a huge run. So 861 00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,080 Speaker 3: I think there's just too much regression coming for this 862 00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:48,080 Speaker 3: Cowboy team. And the Panthers have made subtle improvements on 863 00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,359 Speaker 3: both sides of the ball. Uh, They've been much better 864 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:55,440 Speaker 3: at home, So give me Carolina here. 865 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:56,800 Speaker 1: As a home dog. 866 00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,839 Speaker 3: I think this is just another spot where it's just 867 00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,960 Speaker 3: probably two bad team. And I think the Panthers are 868 00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:04,279 Speaker 3: getting too much disrespect. 869 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,759 Speaker 2: Yeah. I took plus three plus one hundred drafts. That 870 00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,759 Speaker 2: took some plus kind of a half two, So I 871 00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:13,400 Speaker 2: agree with you here. I make this, you know, closer 872 00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,560 Speaker 2: to two. And that's with on some uncertainty with the 873 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,719 Speaker 2: Cowboys with all their injuries at wide receiver, along the 874 00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:20,840 Speaker 2: offensive line. But it's a bad defense. It should be 875 00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,000 Speaker 2: a back and forth game. So I mean taking the 876 00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:25,640 Speaker 2: home dog with a field goal or better I think 877 00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,520 Speaker 2: makes sense. I will say Dak's playing at a super 878 00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,040 Speaker 2: high level. Clayton Adams has been a huge get the 879 00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,680 Speaker 2: Cardinals run game is created. I know they've had injuries, 880 00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,680 Speaker 2: and I mean the Cowboys run gaming rex number one 881 00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:40,799 Speaker 2: and rush success rate, So we might have disrespected Sean 882 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,680 Speaker 2: Nimer in this rushing attack. Maybe it's all Clayton Adams 883 00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,680 Speaker 2: a bit more, a bit too much in the offseason 884 00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,839 Speaker 2: and Dak I just can't stress enough how well he's 885 00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,520 Speaker 2: playing given the circumstances. But yeah, I think you got 886 00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:54,319 Speaker 2: to take the Panthers here at three or better. 887 00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:56,919 Speaker 1: There's some good there. And even with Dak. 888 00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,560 Speaker 3: I mean, like you said, strength is schedule, but there 889 00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:01,560 Speaker 3: are some kind of odd things when you look at 890 00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:07,239 Speaker 3: like Dack's numbers, like he his yards per attempt is 891 00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,520 Speaker 3: just league average seven, like you expect for all that 892 00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:10,920 Speaker 3: it would to. 893 00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:11,560 Speaker 1: Be much better. 894 00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,680 Speaker 3: And then look at the Panthers and all of a 895 00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:21,040 Speaker 3: sudden they're number three in defensive SSS rate, which I 896 00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:25,120 Speaker 3: was very surprised looking at and seeing on that list 897 00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:28,840 Speaker 3: there go Denver, Detroit and then and Panthers. 898 00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,840 Speaker 2: So I think I get the yard person, But remember 899 00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,839 Speaker 2: Lamb's been hurt enough Turpin last week they got all 900 00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,320 Speaker 2: a lot quicker without some of the offensive line injuries. 901 00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:40,719 Speaker 2: That offensive performance last week was super impressive. You don't. 902 00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:44,000 Speaker 2: You don't go on the road with four down four 903 00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,200 Speaker 2: offensive line and your two best receivers with a not 904 00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,480 Speaker 2: so talented running back grim and get the win like 905 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,200 Speaker 2: that unless you're playing at a high level. But uh no, 906 00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:53,880 Speaker 2: I agree this game should be back and forth to 907 00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,800 Speaker 2: take the points. So who do we got as quarterbacks? 908 00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,800 Speaker 3: I got Cooper Rush, I got Bryce Young, and I 909 00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:02,120 Speaker 3: got at justin Field. 910 00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:03,480 Speaker 1: Can't do any worse than that. 911 00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:08,120 Speaker 2: I got Donald Mahomes and most likely Mac Jones. 912 00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,920 Speaker 1: I mean, yes, he didn't he kind of he kind of. 913 00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,080 Speaker 1: Mahomes is just kind. 914 00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,520 Speaker 4: Of Donald's been the best quarterback in the league this year. 915 00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:18,880 Speaker 4: I know it's I'm saying. If you didn't have Mac Jones, 916 00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:20,520 Speaker 4: I don't know. I wouldn't even know who you are 917 00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:24,839 Speaker 4: right now? All right, that was our six pack. It's 918 00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:26,680 Speaker 4: time for our favorite totals. 919 00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:30,040 Speaker 3: Oh man, that that was like a roller coaster of 920 00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,560 Speaker 3: a of a loss on the on that London game. 921 00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,560 Speaker 3: For me with the Cleveland at one point it was like, oh, 922 00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:37,799 Speaker 3: it's toast, and then there was hope, and then there 923 00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,239 Speaker 3: wasn't hope, and then they scored a touchdown, so he 924 00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:43,160 Speaker 3: couldn't even get the tie. But I'm gonna go this 925 00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:49,120 Speaker 3: week with one that's probably with a contrarian. But Carolina 926 00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:53,719 Speaker 3: Dallas under forty nine and a half, we'll see. I 927 00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:55,799 Speaker 3: don't know if it's gonna get to fifty, we'll see. 928 00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:57,960 Speaker 3: I mean, the fact that it's at forty nine and 929 00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,920 Speaker 3: a half was surprising, I think. You know, as I mentioned, 930 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:02,480 Speaker 3: I think Carolina made. 931 00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:03,919 Speaker 1: Some improvements on both sides of the ball. 932 00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:07,440 Speaker 3: The speed will help, but ultimately I think their defense 933 00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,520 Speaker 3: is a little bit more competent, especially at home, than 934 00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,200 Speaker 3: people realize. You know, this is a team that's number 935 00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,359 Speaker 3: three in defensive success rate. There is a team that's 936 00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,680 Speaker 3: starting to make some personnel changes and schematic changes, and 937 00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:23,799 Speaker 3: they've always had a good coordinator in in ever Roll. 938 00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:28,520 Speaker 3: So now you're playing a Dallas team that mentioned last week, 939 00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:33,360 Speaker 3: they get essentially gifted two score like just a whole 940 00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:37,560 Speaker 3: different at least a touchdown. You know, in terms of 941 00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,920 Speaker 3: the total, if not more. Right before the half. 942 00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:40,600 Speaker 1: You have. 943 00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,480 Speaker 3: A Panther team that the week before against the Patriots 944 00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,600 Speaker 3: and you were on the Patriots that so that was 945 00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:49,480 Speaker 3: a great call. But I mean it was just like 946 00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:54,880 Speaker 3: this special teams unraveling. And even that has improved because 947 00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,800 Speaker 3: you know, for example, a guy like Campbell their wide receiver, 948 00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,959 Speaker 3: who's one of their gunners that lost contained I guess 949 00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,680 Speaker 3: on the Parker Stols Parker turn a couple of games ago, 950 00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:08,000 Speaker 3: he's done, he's out, he's off the roster, so I 951 00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,880 Speaker 3: think it waved injured. But they're they're making a lot 952 00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:13,520 Speaker 3: of changes that I'm like, Okay, this team is not 953 00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:18,480 Speaker 3: completely just lost like they've been when Bryce was struggling 954 00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,359 Speaker 3: last year and Bryce starting to play better. 955 00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:22,360 Speaker 1: But these teams. 956 00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:26,840 Speaker 3: The key with these teams, both of them so many 957 00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,880 Speaker 3: long drives on both sides of the ball. So something 958 00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,400 Speaker 3: has to give here because if you just kind of 959 00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:36,000 Speaker 3: match up their drives, you're gonna have to their plays 960 00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,960 Speaker 3: per drive. You're gonna have to project a downtick for 961 00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,520 Speaker 3: both sides, and that is gonna, you know, blunt the 962 00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,680 Speaker 3: scoring compared to what it's been. So that combined with 963 00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:50,080 Speaker 3: the fact that outdoor game for Dallas win game. I'm 964 00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,400 Speaker 3: seeing right now, I'm seeing Gus could hit up to 965 00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,800 Speaker 3: eighteen miles per hour anything. Once you start hitting double digits, 966 00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,359 Speaker 3: you're looking at about a sixty percent underrate as it is. 967 00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:01,680 Speaker 3: So I say, think you actually get one of these 968 00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:07,120 Speaker 3: just sweepy, ugly, windy games for both of these teams, 969 00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:08,600 Speaker 3: and it's just not going to kind of live up 970 00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,160 Speaker 3: to expectation, like the way they were the way they 971 00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,239 Speaker 3: were scoring all over the place last week. So yeah, 972 00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,200 Speaker 3: give me the guy go with the under. In the 973 00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,480 Speaker 3: Panthers and Cowboys. 974 00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:22,120 Speaker 2: Man, we're like forty five minutes into this episode and 975 00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:27,960 Speaker 2: you've spent talking about the Panthers jet in Cooper rush. 976 00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,920 Speaker 2: All right, for my favorite total, I'm going maybe the 977 00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,560 Speaker 2: Chargers Dolphins under forty four and a half at DraftKings. 978 00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:39,200 Speaker 2: I look the Chargers. Their offensive line injuries now running 979 00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:42,280 Speaker 2: back injuries are created their offense. I know the Dolphins 980 00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,399 Speaker 2: can't get any pressure. They blitz a Ton. You don't 981 00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:49,479 Speaker 2: really want to blitz Herbert, but I think it makes sense. 982 00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,759 Speaker 2: Now they can't block anybody. They're down guards and tackles, 983 00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:56,640 Speaker 2: and their running back room is a mess. So I 984 00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:59,239 Speaker 2: think that in this game the Chargers probably go a 985 00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,400 Speaker 2: little bit more servative to protect Herbert rely on the 986 00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:06,239 Speaker 2: run game, even without their backs, Like we just saw 987 00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:10,640 Speaker 2: Miami give up two hundred so Rico Daldell and I 988 00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,600 Speaker 2: just don't know how the Dolphins moved the ball consistently. 989 00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,839 Speaker 2: You saw it last week without Tyreek Hill. Like this 990 00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:19,480 Speaker 2: offense is lost, and now they're going up against the 991 00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:24,760 Speaker 2: Charters defense, which is a perfect matchup from their perspective 992 00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:26,640 Speaker 2: against the Dolphins. For what it's where too is number 993 00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,320 Speaker 2: one in the league and EPA per play against man coverage. 994 00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,439 Speaker 2: He's number thirty versa zone. You know what, He's gonna 995 00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:34,800 Speaker 2: get a ton of here, a lot of zone. I 996 00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,040 Speaker 2: just don't know if this Dolphins team moves the ball anymore. 997 00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:42,600 Speaker 2: Their offensive line is a disaster. Their their rookie left 998 00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:44,719 Speaker 2: guard who they traded up for is I think the 999 00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:50,080 Speaker 2: worst starter in the league. He has a multiple games 1000 00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:52,640 Speaker 2: this year with a past block grade of zero. He's 1001 00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,560 Speaker 2: just a traffic cone out there. Everything is a mess 1002 00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:59,040 Speaker 2: with this team. So yeah, give me the under under 1003 00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:00,959 Speaker 2: Dolphins Chargers forty four. 1004 00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,439 Speaker 1: And a half. It's funny enough. 1005 00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,239 Speaker 3: I was actually I ended up taking this one first 1006 00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:07,279 Speaker 3: then pivoting off of it. 1007 00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:10,000 Speaker 1: I do. I do like it. 1008 00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,439 Speaker 3: I just ended up liking the Panthers one a little more. 1009 00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,320 Speaker 3: But also it looks like it's going to be pretty 1010 00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:19,879 Speaker 3: humid in Miami for this one, and that usually leads 1011 00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,600 Speaker 3: to unders that are a pretty high high rate. So 1012 00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:27,239 Speaker 3: that's another reason I like it. But Justin Herbert somehow 1013 00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:32,480 Speaker 3: is sitting like what Tentiest in in EPA per play. 1014 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:37,719 Speaker 2: Now all of a sudden, I mean, offensive line. It's 1015 00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:41,040 Speaker 2: just you can do no one. They can't block anybody. 1016 00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:42,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, it could be your struggle though. 1017 00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,040 Speaker 3: The only thing I worry about is there is some 1018 00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:48,279 Speaker 3: uncertainty with like Roman I think has done a better 1019 00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:52,359 Speaker 3: job of not forcing the run when it's not there. 1020 00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:54,719 Speaker 3: And so my worry is they say, you know what 1021 00:52:55,280 --> 00:53:00,319 Speaker 3: the Dolphins have like just invisible ghost corners, and we 1022 00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,560 Speaker 3: have Justin Herbert and we need to get his stats 1023 00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:05,920 Speaker 3: right again, and they just go all out at points. 1024 00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,359 Speaker 1: But yeah, it's it's just. 1025 00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:10,960 Speaker 2: I also just don't regardless, don't see the Miami offense 1026 00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:11,479 Speaker 2: doing much. 1027 00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:15,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's really what you need because the charges 1028 00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,759 Speaker 3: will probably have some success. But I also don't feel 1029 00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,879 Speaker 3: good about some of his road favorites against a team 1030 00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,319 Speaker 3: that everyone thinks is kind of just completely down. 1031 00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,000 Speaker 2: I can't lay it here. But I also don't want 1032 00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,160 Speaker 2: about the doll Like I just have no interest in 1033 00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,800 Speaker 2: Dolphins any week. I bet him once against the Bills. 1034 00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:34,319 Speaker 2: I just need a little like I need a little 1035 00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:35,960 Speaker 2: bit more. But I can't bet the Charges at this 1036 00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:37,399 Speaker 2: price with their offensive line state. 1037 00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:39,280 Speaker 1: The Dolphins are depressing. 1038 00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:42,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, this Dolphins, I mean the Daniels was walking like 1039 00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:44,600 Speaker 3: he's doing his little like goodbye before I say goodbye 1040 00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:47,320 Speaker 3: to hit at the end of every game in press conference. 1041 00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,520 Speaker 3: Now it's it's ugly in uh in Miami. But I 1042 00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:53,359 Speaker 3: think it's ugly. I think weird things happen, so we'll 1043 00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:56,239 Speaker 3: see how it goes. But yeah, I like that total 1044 00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:59,040 Speaker 3: as well. That was about to be mine. I ended 1045 00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:01,080 Speaker 3: up going Carolina down under forty nine and a half. 1046 00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,880 Speaker 3: You got Chargers Dolphins under forty four and a half. 1047 00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:09,759 Speaker 3: Now it's time for our moneyline underdog parways turning good 1048 00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,359 Speaker 3: weekends into great weekends. 1049 00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,400 Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. 1050 00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:17,960 Speaker 3: Just tell the people who are who's gonna hit you, 1051 00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:21,080 Speaker 3: because like you're five or zero, so I don't even 1052 00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,080 Speaker 3: know why I give a parway like I should just 1053 00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,760 Speaker 3: should just ask you and we just bet two units 1054 00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:28,040 Speaker 3: on it. 1055 00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:30,719 Speaker 2: I thought about the Panthers, but we're gonna go to 1056 00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:34,520 Speaker 2: the Saints, the New Orleans Saints against the Patriots. This 1057 00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:38,560 Speaker 2: is mainly a spot play. Patriots off that big win 1058 00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:40,960 Speaker 2: against the Bills, going on the road to play the 1059 00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,200 Speaker 2: one win Saints. I could see them coming out a 1060 00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,879 Speaker 2: little bit sleepy. And I'm gonna say for the fourth 1061 00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:49,200 Speaker 2: straight week, the Saints aren't as bad as people think. 1062 00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:52,480 Speaker 2: Like rattlers playing at a league average level, Drake May's 1063 00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:56,279 Speaker 2: playing at an extremely high level. I don't know if 1064 00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,160 Speaker 2: he can keep it up. There's these pets in turn 1065 00:54:58,200 --> 00:54:59,560 Speaker 2: of where he plays it. He's gotten away with the 1066 00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,319 Speaker 2: late down has been so good. I think he's going 1067 00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,680 Speaker 2: to be a lead eventually, but he could have a 1068 00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:07,040 Speaker 2: few stumbles before he gets to that level consistently. I 1069 00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,759 Speaker 2: still don't love this Patriots defense. I don't think either 1070 00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,799 Speaker 2: team's gonna have any success running the ball, so there's 1071 00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,040 Speaker 2: gonna have This is like a little bit of a 1072 00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:23,480 Speaker 2: higher variance game with rattler Taysom Hill high player using 1073 00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:27,960 Speaker 2: him in different ways. But yeah, the Saints team is 1074 00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,000 Speaker 2: not bad. Like, the only game they haven't been competitive 1075 00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:34,239 Speaker 2: in without a chance in like they could have taken 1076 00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:38,160 Speaker 2: the lead against the Bills in Buffalo was against Seattle 1077 00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,360 Speaker 2: and that was just special teams blunders that let the 1078 00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,520 Speaker 2: game get away. So yeah, give me the Saints at 1079 00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:44,480 Speaker 2: home against the Pats. 1080 00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:49,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind this at all. I I thought 1081 00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:51,600 Speaker 3: the Bills. I thought the Patriots were going to struggle 1082 00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,160 Speaker 3: a lot more against the Bills, and then the Bills 1083 00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:55,840 Speaker 3: came out and just had, you know, just sloppy start. 1084 00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:56,000 Speaker 1: To the game. 1085 00:55:56,960 --> 00:56:00,239 Speaker 3: And then but then Drake may also like you never knowing, 1086 00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:02,000 Speaker 3: these quarterbacks are just gonna kind of hit that gear 1087 00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:03,840 Speaker 3: that they just never go back to. 1088 00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,719 Speaker 1: And I just don't know how to project the Patriots yet. 1089 00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,560 Speaker 3: But this is this is why you take a money 1090 00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,560 Speaker 3: line dog against them, because I just think they're gonna 1091 00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:13,359 Speaker 3: be an inconsistent team and we saw them and then 1092 00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:16,480 Speaker 3: there's still the fumbling issues like Bermandre Stevenson and they 1093 00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:18,800 Speaker 3: only got two backs now unless they're gonna give carries 1094 00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,880 Speaker 3: to uh who would Beginnings I guess or like So 1095 00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:25,440 Speaker 3: it's just a really high variance team to predict, and 1096 00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:27,080 Speaker 3: teams like that upset. 1097 00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,880 Speaker 1: Uh, you know, the Super Bowl favorites, and they also 1098 00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,960 Speaker 1: lose to the worst teams of the league, So don't 1099 00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:33,239 Speaker 1: mind me. 1100 00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,160 Speaker 2: This is a team that got that got blown out 1101 00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:40,480 Speaker 2: by the Raiders in Week one at home. So yeah, 1102 00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,800 Speaker 2: the Steelers at home. I know that was pretty unlucky. 1103 00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,480 Speaker 2: But it's the team I think is it's going to 1104 00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,759 Speaker 2: be up and down throughout this year, and this is 1105 00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:50,880 Speaker 2: just a good spot. So yeah, give me the Saints. 1106 00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:51,480 Speaker 1: Yeah. 1107 00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:53,359 Speaker 3: I one team I do not want to talk about 1108 00:56:53,400 --> 00:56:55,400 Speaker 3: is the Raiders. I mean that that that is just 1109 00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:57,160 Speaker 3: that I can't. 1110 00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:58,920 Speaker 2: I thought about laying it with the Raiders this week 1111 00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:03,560 Speaker 2: against the Titans, but can't. I don't think I can 1112 00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:07,440 Speaker 2: get there. I need Bowers to play for sure and 1113 00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:10,799 Speaker 2: be healthy. But like do I want to play the 1114 00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:12,359 Speaker 2: Titans though? I mean they should have been down twenty 1115 00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:15,399 Speaker 2: eight six last week. Yeah, this is not a team 1116 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,040 Speaker 2: that is going in any right direction. Are you going 1117 00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:19,040 Speaker 2: to use the Titans here? 1118 00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:21,760 Speaker 3: No? I was about I was thinking about it because 1119 00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:24,840 Speaker 3: this Raider team is just finding ways and I think, 1120 00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:27,280 Speaker 3: you know, the more I look into it, I think 1121 00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:29,840 Speaker 3: they have a Chip Kelly problem, and then by extension, 1122 00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:31,520 Speaker 3: a Pee Carroll problem, and then it just makes them 1123 00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:35,200 Speaker 3: have a geno problem because everyone's just too old and 1124 00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:37,880 Speaker 3: no one knows how to figure out how to change anything, 1125 00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:42,760 Speaker 3: and they just But but I will say worse than 1126 00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:43,840 Speaker 3: that aspect. 1127 00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:44,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that. 1128 00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:48,840 Speaker 3: But yes and no, because I am seeing certain things 1129 00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,959 Speaker 3: that I like, they're given it the old college try 1130 00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:54,600 Speaker 3: like you know that they started trying or they're trying 1131 00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:58,120 Speaker 3: to reduce the Lockett and uh and Jefferson's playing time 1132 00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:01,040 Speaker 3: they're given. They're going more too height end, they're giving 1133 00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:04,200 Speaker 3: their rookie hellm more works like they're doing wittle things. 1134 00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:06,160 Speaker 1: But yeah, they're just bad. Callahan's bad. 1135 00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:08,200 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with the team at plus one 1136 00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:10,200 Speaker 3: thirty six and the Niners, well, I'm a lot more 1137 00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:13,360 Speaker 3: confident in I think this could very well be the 1138 00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:16,600 Speaker 3: NFC Super Bowl representative. They're just kind of chugging on 1139 00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:19,720 Speaker 3: along and their one loss was to another team that 1140 00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:25,200 Speaker 3: I think was severely underrated in the Jacksonville Jaguars. So yeah, 1141 00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:28,600 Speaker 3: it's early in the week, don't know exactly who's suiting 1142 00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:30,960 Speaker 3: up and who's not, But I don't want to and 1143 00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:32,840 Speaker 3: I don't want to again get like super excited if 1144 00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:36,320 Speaker 3: it's just mac Jones thrown at Tanjas. But I do 1145 00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:41,439 Speaker 3: think that the Buccaneers have been getting extremely lucky. And yeah, 1146 00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:44,480 Speaker 3: even if mac Jones is throwing a ton, just Canahan's 1147 00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:45,280 Speaker 3: back in his bag. 1148 00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,200 Speaker 1: McCaffrey just changes. 1149 00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:52,040 Speaker 3: His whole Like I think he's just always dreamed about McCaffrey. 1150 00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:55,440 Speaker 3: It's just like he'd never anytime McCaffrey's out, he just 1151 00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:57,000 Speaker 3: like gets in his own head. But he also signed 1152 00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,360 Speaker 3: an offensive coordinator this year or something like that, right, 1153 00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:02,960 Speaker 3: like he has like uh, he has like he delegated tasks, 1154 00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,439 Speaker 3: So it seems like there's a correlation there. So yeah, 1155 00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:07,560 Speaker 3: I like this Niner team. I think this is when 1156 00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:10,480 Speaker 3: you want to take them as a dog. And the 1157 00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:13,520 Speaker 3: Bucks luck has to run out sometime. And they played 1158 00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:16,520 Speaker 3: the Eagles already and actually lost, and those are the 1159 00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:17,600 Speaker 3: two luckiest teams. 1160 00:59:17,600 --> 00:59:20,920 Speaker 1: So yeah, five to one for this one. 1161 00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:26,160 Speaker 2: Five to one Saints and Niners. By the way, before 1162 00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:30,880 Speaker 2: we get to our anytime touchdown people, if anyone the 1163 00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:33,280 Speaker 2: two guys who didn't talk about Brown Steelers, my numbers 1164 00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:38,000 Speaker 2: say Browns. But yeah, Steelers should be healthier on defense, 1165 00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:40,680 Speaker 2: maybe fully healthy of rams. You can go high Smith quarterback. 1166 00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:42,920 Speaker 2: There's no tape on April, and what the Browns want 1167 00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:45,280 Speaker 2: to do it does get rid of the ball. Rogers 1168 00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:46,800 Speaker 2: gets rid of the ball super quick, so maybe that 1169 00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:48,960 Speaker 2: mitigates some of the pressure. He has the lowest stay 1170 00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:52,320 Speaker 2: down in the league that the Browns can generate. It's 1171 00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:54,400 Speaker 2: just I don know how to quantify this spot. This 1172 00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:56,480 Speaker 2: is a nightmare spot for the Browns side. They went 1173 00:59:56,480 --> 01:00:00,520 Speaker 2: from Detroit to overseas, now back to Pittsburgh, back on 1174 01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:02,919 Speaker 2: the road to play at Pittsburgh who's coming off a bye, 1175 01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:06,959 Speaker 2: which is this has never happened before. Too hard to quantify. 1176 01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:09,640 Speaker 2: And then Cardinals Colts, what's the status of Kyler Murray? 1177 01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,480 Speaker 2: The Cardinals defenders, they don't have a run game without 1178 01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:16,479 Speaker 2: any backs. Where are they at mentally after that loss 1179 01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:19,240 Speaker 2: last week? That this line's getting really expensive. It's a 1180 01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:23,240 Speaker 2: good bye low hot by low Sell high spot. But 1181 01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:26,520 Speaker 2: I we just need to learn more. So I got 1182 01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:29,920 Speaker 2: nothing on that game as of now, except in anytime 1183 01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:32,120 Speaker 2: touchdown that I. 1184 01:00:32,000 --> 01:00:32,560 Speaker 1: Like it, I will. 1185 01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:37,760 Speaker 3: I actually got one trend because the Cardinals. If Kyler 1186 01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:42,200 Speaker 3: is ruled in and this number kind of is still 1187 01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:44,680 Speaker 3: sitting there above, I would say six. 1188 01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:48,960 Speaker 1: If Kyle was ruled in. Just note that this is 1189 01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:50,800 Speaker 1: this is the spot that you play. 1190 01:00:50,640 --> 01:00:56,360 Speaker 3: The Cardinals Kyler Murray career as a road underdog twenty 1191 01:00:56,440 --> 01:01:02,240 Speaker 3: two six and two seventy against the spread, Uh, forty 1192 01:01:02,280 --> 01:01:06,560 Speaker 3: eight ROI want to know this season already. This is 1193 01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,640 Speaker 3: just when the Carders decided to show up, and it's 1194 01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:12,640 Speaker 3: just always happened multiple coaching staff so it's almost an 1195 01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,440 Speaker 3: auto It was gonna it was gonna be an auto bet. 1196 01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:15,479 Speaker 3: It was gonna be my third. 1197 01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:16,200 Speaker 2: Uh. 1198 01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:19,160 Speaker 3: But we just don't know if Kyle's playing, so I 1199 01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:20,840 Speaker 3: have no trust and percent in this offense. 1200 01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:22,760 Speaker 2: The other fear is that if he plays and like, yes, 1201 01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:26,040 Speaker 2: I have like a plate or something and he's not mobile, 1202 01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:29,520 Speaker 2: which he needs. So that's another concern to keep in mind. 1203 01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:32,240 Speaker 2: But uh, and if anyone's looking for a teaser, I 1204 01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:36,240 Speaker 2: know I get asked about that every week. You know what, 1205 01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:38,040 Speaker 2: I don't really like any teeses to speak. I'm sorry, 1206 01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:40,440 Speaker 2: I can't force any, but we do like in anytime 1207 01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:41,960 Speaker 2: Touchdown Parlay. 1208 01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:45,680 Speaker 3: Let's get right into that or anytime Touchdown Parlay segment 1209 01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:49,880 Speaker 3: presented by DraftKings. Our favorite touchdown scores were just this 1210 01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:53,000 Speaker 3: is just Sundays late, no Thursday, no Monday, stuck, where 1211 01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:53,360 Speaker 3: are you going? 1212 01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,800 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Trey McBride on plus two twenty 1213 01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:00,760 Speaker 2: at DraftKings. Look, I don't love the Colts lineo. I 1214 01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:04,880 Speaker 2: think they can be vulnerable against tight ends. And if 1215 01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:08,600 Speaker 2: you look at what's happened to them this year, you say, okay, well, 1216 01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:10,400 Speaker 2: they haven't really given up much to tight ends. Well, 1217 01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:13,280 Speaker 2: last week they played the Raiders, they didn't have any 1218 01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:18,120 Speaker 2: tight ends. Dowers was a late scratch. And you know 1219 01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:20,080 Speaker 2: they played the Dolphins early in the year when they 1220 01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:23,240 Speaker 2: didn't have Waller, so they had no no tight ends 1221 01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:26,600 Speaker 2: on their user. They played the Rams with tight end injuries. 1222 01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:30,440 Speaker 2: Like the only team with like a good tight end 1223 01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:34,480 Speaker 2: quote unquote was the Titans with a rookie quarterback and 1224 01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:40,360 Speaker 2: Chicka Konquo had five catches for sixty six yards and McBride. 1225 01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:42,680 Speaker 2: So I think mcgratt is a favorable matchup. He's overdue 1226 01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:46,120 Speaker 2: for some touchdowns eventually, and if Murray can't go, or 1227 01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:49,520 Speaker 2: he's not mobile, or if it's per set, usually when 1228 01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:52,760 Speaker 2: you get backups, you see an uptick in the tight 1229 01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:54,480 Speaker 2: end you said, and the Cords just can't run the 1230 01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:58,480 Speaker 2: ball right now there are any backs, So I think 1231 01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:01,600 Speaker 2: McBride could see, especially like the red zone. If they say, 1232 01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:04,320 Speaker 2: like you have forsett or hobbled Murray and you have 1233 01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:08,480 Speaker 2: no run game, that increased target share, I think in 1234 01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:11,160 Speaker 2: the red zone for McBride. So let's go with Trey McBride. 1235 01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,080 Speaker 3: I mean, the Cardinals only should have had four rushing 1236 01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:17,200 Speaker 3: touchdowns last week, But to your point, that is not 1237 01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:21,320 Speaker 3: because of the Cardinals' strength as a running football team. 1238 01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:25,720 Speaker 3: That is because the Tennessee Titans are just giving just 1239 01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:28,720 Speaker 3: bleeding production to opposing running games. And that's why I'm 1240 01:03:28,760 --> 01:03:32,880 Speaker 3: going with Ashton genty here minus one fifty. I think 1241 01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:36,440 Speaker 3: it's too Oh, there's certain spots where you running backs 1242 01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:38,600 Speaker 3: are just a lot more likely to score. Home favorite 1243 01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:41,480 Speaker 3: spots are one of them, especially when we have a 1244 01:03:41,480 --> 01:03:44,840 Speaker 3: team like the Raiders one and four average point differential 1245 01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:50,040 Speaker 3: per play down by six point four points, so they've 1246 01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,560 Speaker 3: essentially been a touchdown down every time they take a snap. 1247 01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,520 Speaker 3: Now they're playing against the Tennessee Titans, who. 1248 01:03:56,640 --> 01:03:58,400 Speaker 2: Are Andre Swift is massive. 1249 01:03:59,080 --> 01:04:04,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's the Titans. It's the Titans offense too, right, 1250 01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:08,160 Speaker 3: It's like they they can be what Gino has been 1251 01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:10,600 Speaker 3: for the Raiders off just giving up the ball right 1252 01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:13,160 Speaker 3: back to their team, a lot of possessions. So this 1253 01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:16,040 Speaker 3: is just a completely kind of we haven't really seen 1254 01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,919 Speaker 3: this for the Raiders since Week one when they beat 1255 01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:21,120 Speaker 3: the Patriots by seven points. 1256 01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:22,080 Speaker 1: That's that's it. 1257 01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:25,080 Speaker 3: That's their only win they've They've just been behind on 1258 01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:26,960 Speaker 3: the scoreboard. And so when they are when they are 1259 01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:29,760 Speaker 3: neutral or head Ashton Gent he's getting all the work. 1260 01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:32,920 Speaker 3: They don't want to give most or anything. Samera White's 1261 01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:35,480 Speaker 3: been a scratch. They just demoted him, and then Lobby 1262 01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:39,480 Speaker 3: is a special teams got. So I expect nearly one 1263 01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:43,800 Speaker 3: hundred percent of the relevant snaps for genty in this spot. 1264 01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:46,200 Speaker 3: Carol's been trying to get him more work. He keeps 1265 01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:50,240 Speaker 3: kind of mentioning every loss. So give me minus one 1266 01:04:50,360 --> 01:04:53,520 Speaker 3: fifty for the anytime. Wouldn't mind if you're not doing 1267 01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:55,520 Speaker 3: this in a parlay for something, but you should because 1268 01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:58,320 Speaker 3: Stucky's been crushing it. But if you're not, don't mind 1269 01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:01,000 Speaker 3: the two touchdowns as well the three touchdowns. 1270 01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:02,680 Speaker 1: Like this Titans team has given up. 1271 01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:08,160 Speaker 3: Nine nine touchdowns for running backs in five games, and 1272 01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:11,480 Speaker 3: it should have been ten because of Amar de Mericado 1273 01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:15,280 Speaker 3: on a seventy. He went seventy one and five a 1274 01:05:15,400 --> 01:05:17,400 Speaker 3: Cyards when you needed to go seventy two. 1275 01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:21,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, gotta go Genty here. Smash Spot agreed. 1276 01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:24,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, this Titans, David outsweat the Rundy's so much worse 1277 01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:27,240 Speaker 2: and then they just wear down eventually. So wouldn't be 1278 01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:29,959 Speaker 2: surprised if like Genty breaks a couple late as well. 1279 01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:32,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a if you want to get some 1280 01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:34,840 Speaker 3: more like you don't really feel like you want to 1281 01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:38,000 Speaker 3: weigh the points with the Raiders, but you think the 1282 01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:39,680 Speaker 3: Titans are just gonna go back to being the Titans. 1283 01:05:39,720 --> 01:05:41,560 Speaker 3: You can also kind of partway those two and get 1284 01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:45,720 Speaker 3: a little better odds. So but you know this, that's 1285 01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:50,240 Speaker 3: it because that's our Anytime Touchdown parlay presented by Draftings. 1286 01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:54,760 Speaker 3: It's Trade McBride, it's Ashton Genty, it's plus four to twenty. 1287 01:05:55,440 --> 01:05:58,560 Speaker 3: And I say that's it because we used to have 1288 01:05:59,240 --> 01:06:02,920 Speaker 3: a Survivor's after our Anytime Touchdown Parways segment for them 1289 01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:09,400 Speaker 3: by DraftKings. But I saved the Cardinals four specifically last week, 1290 01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:11,200 Speaker 3: so I could use him again. 1291 01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:13,120 Speaker 2: The guest smelt out I've ever seen in my life, 1292 01:06:13,960 --> 01:06:15,480 Speaker 2: Like I was. 1293 01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:17,600 Speaker 3: Like when when it starts getting in to that point, 1294 01:06:17,760 --> 01:06:20,200 Speaker 3: I'm starting, I'm like doing, I'm like running errands. And 1295 01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:22,640 Speaker 3: because I always watch all the games like over again 1296 01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:25,320 Speaker 3: on you know, watch every play, so I'm like, I 1297 01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:27,960 Speaker 3: didn't even realize that like this it got to the 1298 01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:29,880 Speaker 3: point where they were in danger of losing and I 1299 01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:32,960 Speaker 3: just look up and it's like, wait, heit twenty what 1300 01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:35,920 Speaker 3: And it was just I, I, oh my god, I 1301 01:06:35,960 --> 01:06:39,240 Speaker 3: can't ti that might be there's a non zero chance 1302 01:06:39,360 --> 01:06:44,360 Speaker 3: that this is Tyler Lockett's last career touchdown. Like Tyra 1303 01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:47,200 Speaker 3: Boyd in a similar spot for the Titans last year 1304 01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:50,200 Speaker 3: sixteen games, it was like the starter playing like seventy 1305 01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:52,880 Speaker 3: percent of the snaps in the slot and zero touchdowns, 1306 01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:54,320 Speaker 3: Like I don't know if Tyler locketld ever. 1307 01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:56,560 Speaker 1: That's It's just the most inexplicable thing. 1308 01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:59,919 Speaker 3: The Cardinals are just low key, like the the West 1309 01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:04,000 Speaker 3: Coast version of like the Giants Jets Brown Like they 1310 01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:06,840 Speaker 3: there's just like a deep struggle with this team, but 1311 01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:09,000 Speaker 3: it's just kind of no one really cares about them, 1312 01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:11,680 Speaker 3: so they just do it under the radar. 1313 01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:14,280 Speaker 2: But man, that that is that was one of the 1314 01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:16,320 Speaker 2: roughest uds that was seen to go out and survivor. 1315 01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:18,919 Speaker 2: I will say last week I told you a couple 1316 01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:20,680 Speaker 2: of entries left in a huge pool I used. I 1317 01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:24,680 Speaker 2: used the Panthers and the Saints, who both got through. 1318 01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:27,400 Speaker 2: So this week I'm probably gonna use the Raiders on 1319 01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:32,080 Speaker 2: one and uh, this is a huge pool where like 1320 01:07:32,160 --> 01:07:37,160 Speaker 2: I'm just trying to get equity every week. I'm probably 1321 01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:42,000 Speaker 2: gonna use the Raiders and then man your Saints again, 1322 01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:50,360 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna so I used the Saints and Panthers again, 1323 01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:52,959 Speaker 2: just in reverse for the two entries. Now, I'm definitely 1324 01:07:52,960 --> 01:07:55,960 Speaker 2: gonna use the Raiders. I might use the Steelers series 1325 01:07:55,960 --> 01:07:59,080 Speaker 2: are a really tough schedule after this. I don't really 1326 01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:01,720 Speaker 2: trust them, but yeah, like when else am I going 1327 01:08:01,800 --> 01:08:05,000 Speaker 2: to use them? Is a good spot, So that's gonna 1328 01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:05,160 Speaker 2: do it. 1329 01:08:05,320 --> 01:08:10,040 Speaker 3: For the Action Network Podcast four Week six, presented by DraftKings, 1330 01:08:10,080 --> 01:08:11,240 Speaker 3: if you want to tail some of the best we 1331 01:08:11,360 --> 01:08:13,600 Speaker 3: discussed today, you can find a quick slip link in 1332 01:08:13,720 --> 01:08:16,080 Speaker 3: the video and podcast description or for. 1333 01:08:16,160 --> 01:08:18,920 Speaker 1: That Action Network dot com slash bet now. If you're 1334 01:08:18,960 --> 01:08:21,880 Speaker 1: on x check out Playbook. Just tag at Playbook and 1335 01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:24,200 Speaker 1: our AI bot will create a bet. 1336 01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:26,600 Speaker 3: Slip for you with whatever bet you're looking for You 1337 01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:29,560 Speaker 3: can screenshot anything you see from Stuck or Kerner or 1338 01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,200 Speaker 3: me or got Nick Giffing, anyone in the Action app 1339 01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:33,040 Speaker 3: or anywhere. 1340 01:08:32,720 --> 01:08:36,479 Speaker 1: Else, and it'll create betslip for you. Very cool. All 1341 01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:37,120 Speaker 1: season long. 1342 01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:41,200 Speaker 3: You can hear more of me Guy Kerner Fantasy Player 1343 01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:44,840 Speaker 3: Projections dfs over on the Fantasy Flex and then Touchdowns 1344 01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:48,840 Speaker 3: over on this podcast later in the week, and of 1345 01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:52,879 Speaker 3: course Stuck part of the All New Favorites podcast. 1346 01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:53,639 Speaker 1: Go check it out. 1347 01:08:53,680 --> 01:08:57,679 Speaker 3: It's really fun, and of course he's still always talking 1348 01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:02,720 Speaker 3: football on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. You find 1349 01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:06,080 Speaker 3: Stuck on next at Stuggy too, I'm at Chris Raybon. 1350 01:09:06,720 --> 01:09:09,080 Speaker 3: You can find us on those same handles on the 1351 01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:12,479 Speaker 3: free awad winning Action Network app, So go down with that. 1352 01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:14,639 Speaker 1: If you don't have it, you want real time. 1353 01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:17,599 Speaker 3: Pick awords live odds I Bet tracking all that good 1354 01:09:17,680 --> 01:09:20,080 Speaker 3: stuff until next week. 1355 01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:21,360 Speaker 1: Let's get this funny. 1356 01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:21,920 Speaker 2: Let go. 1357 01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:41,960 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1358 01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:44,800 Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is 1359 01:09:44,800 --> 01:09:47,879 Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler