1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast presented by bet 2 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: three six ' five. We are part of the Action Network. 3 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 4 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: It is almost the eve of March Madness. This will 5 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: be the biggest betting event we have for many months 6 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: to come. So what do we do? We got March Madness, 7 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: we bring in the Action Network. Og the Prime Minister 8 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, a man who has not slept since 9 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: July of twenty twenty three. He is the host of 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus podcast. He is the host 11 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: of the Big Bets on Campus Live show. He is 12 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: a master of all sports, but specifically college basketball, so 13 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: much so that he is a famed one named Moniker 14 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: after his favorite college basketball player, Stuckey. Is going to 15 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: join us on the show, and he's gonna take us 16 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: all the way through the first round to the final four. 17 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,559 Speaker 1: Tell us how we're gonna make some money? Of course, 18 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,839 Speaker 1: I am joined by my co host, my companion, Michael 19 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: Padre might be f professional better Simon Hunteto. So I'm in. 20 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:29,919 Speaker 2: Hello, Chad. We made it mid March. 21 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 3: March Madness is here, buddy, But we got away there 22 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 3: obviously first got to hear how you're feeling about your 23 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 3: Bears moves, all the Bear chaos, how you feel about 24 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 3: Justin Fields and the moves you guys made a freegency 25 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 3: pretty exciting times in Chicago. 26 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: Well, I'm up and down right like number one. I 27 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: can remember viscerally when the Bears drafted Justin Fields and 28 00:01:54,400 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: me and my kid were jumping off the couch, hugging, Screamingphorick. 29 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: And the fact that we are now talking about the 30 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: Justin Fields era being over in Chicago, when we were 31 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: desperately falling in love with this guy and his team 32 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: loved him, The city was loving him. We were loving 33 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: the way he played with Abandon. I think the fact 34 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: that the Bears could only get a sixth round pick 35 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: is to me not reflective necessarily of the Bears missing 36 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: out on the market. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't. 37 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,239 Speaker 1: At the end of the day, I think every other 38 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: team looked at the film and saw the same thing 39 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: the Bears saw, which is why they're drafting Caleb Williams 40 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: and saw a dynamic athlete who had not developed as 41 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: a passer, was not a guy who would get it 42 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: done Layton Games, who was not executing in the most 43 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: important moments of every game, and they got them. They 44 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 1: got rid of him for what they could get, and 45 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: this is the best it's going to be. So I'm 46 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: sad emotionally. I loved him as a player, I loved 47 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: him as a Bear. I wanted him. 48 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 4: To do well. 49 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: But dude, you're giving me a guy who everybody is 50 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 1: saying is a once in a generation quarterback. And he's 51 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: throwing a DJ Moore. He's handing off to DeAndre Swift, 52 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 1: he's throwing to Keenan Allen, he's throwing to Cole Kmet 53 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 1: Like all of a sudden, this is a very dynamic offense. 54 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: So I'm over it really fast. 55 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I will say that it's just the way the 56 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 3: NFL has moved now, right with the rookie pay scale. 57 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 3: Justin Fields is very talented, but there was a reason 58 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 3: he did drop in the draft, and there's a reason 59 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 3: that you know Williams has talked about in a different way. 60 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 3: So with Justin Fields in this move with the Bears, 61 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: we talked about they really didn't have any other choice. 62 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 3: If he had come in and taken you guys to 63 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 3: the playoffs this season like Jordan Love did, with Green Bay. 64 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 3: I think then maybe they do trade out and make 65 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 3: different moves at this point, right because they would have 66 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 3: a reason to believe in them. So I know Bears 67 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 3: Fands were upset about. I agree with Lowhi. You said 68 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 3: that at the end of the day, it is it 69 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 3: does fall mainly onto Justin field shoulders, and you can 70 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 3: blame situation all you want. 71 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 2: When there's players like CJ. 72 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: You step in and can take guys who are not 73 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 3: that good on Houston make them into Pro Bowlers. That's 74 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 3: when they talk about you draft these quarterbacks that make 75 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 3: teams of sense. So yeah, if you're upset about losing 76 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 3: Justin Fields ins Walks the number one pick overall with 77 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 3: tons of expectations and Williams n Yeah, just really exciting 78 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 3: tis right now, Chicago Chubb. 79 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: We're gonna dig much much deeper into it. Next week. 80 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 1: We'll talk free agency, the end of free agency, how 81 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 1: it's impacting draft, what we're seeing, how it's impacting, how 82 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 1: we're thinking about futures, and just general landscaping for the NFL. 83 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about it next week. 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Conditioning restrictions apply. 102 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: Reminder if you're in North Carolina, take advantage of the 103 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: best sign up offers at BET three sixty five and 104 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: across every sports book. A link to all those offers 105 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 1: can be found in this episode description. If you're in 106 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: North Carolina, check out that link in the episode description. 107 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: All Right, I promised Stucky, who was so popular. I 108 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: like to remind people Stucky is so popular. Before we 109 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: launched Action Network, Stucky, with a private Twitter account, had 110 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: twenty three thousand followers that he was going through and 111 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: improving one by one. That's how much cred this guy has. 112 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: I know he's exhausted. He may have fallen asleep during 113 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: our blabbering intro. Stuck before we even get to it, 114 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 1: before we get to the tournament, very quickly, because people 115 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 1: will listen to this pod today. We got playing games 116 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: tonight and tomorrow. I don't need reasons. Tell me right 117 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: now your picks for playing games tonight or tomorrow? Best ones. 118 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 4: For the playing games. And by the way, he said, King, 119 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 4: I go by Prime Minister, but that's okay. 120 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: The Prime Minister of degenerate nation. 121 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, I let's say tonight. I I really don't love 122 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 4: either game tonight tomorrow. I do like Colorado. I would 123 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 4: lean Grambling if I had to take both games. Tonight, 124 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 4: I would take Colorado State and I would take Wagner. 125 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 4: But I'm not in a rush to bet either. And 126 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 4: these get the first four games to me, unless I 127 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 4: really love something, it's kind of like the like I 128 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 4: actually have a bet. I have a bet on the 129 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 4: n I t tonight in Boston College, and I like 130 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 4: app State tomorrow night. But the first four to me, 131 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 4: it's sort of like betting on the coin toss or 132 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 4: the anthem, Like I don't want to I want to 133 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 4: wait until the actual thing. It's like that's how I 134 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 4: grew up. There was never our first four, so you 135 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 4: have like you used to have this break and then 136 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 4: Thursday at Tuelbow seven pm. You know, it's the longest morning. 137 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 4: You're finishing up your brackets, finishing up getting in all 138 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 4: of your contests. That's like Christmas morning for adults, finalizing all. 139 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 2: Of your bets. 140 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 4: So that's like when the tournament really starts for me. 141 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 4: So these first four games, unless I really love love something, 142 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 4: which I don't, tonight, I'm a okay passing. 143 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: We are big, big Wagner fans in the Millman House. 144 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 1: Since my wife is from Staten Island, we are going. 145 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 4: To I'm I am thirty to one to win the 146 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 4: any C. They were first team. 147 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: Ever, we are going to be rooting so hard for 148 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: Wagner to represent Staten Island. All right, So, uh, you 149 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: come number one overall seed, number one seed in their 150 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: region and calling the East the region of death? What 151 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: is your logic there? How should this impact our betting? 152 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 2: Yeah? 153 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 4: I mean, interestingly enough, the defending champ hasn't won a 154 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 4: game in the second weekend in sixteen years, So the 155 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 4: defending champ hasn't had much success, and that was I 156 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 4: believe when Florida, who was the last team to go 157 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 4: back to back, won two straight national titles. But Yukon 158 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 4: is a juggernaut by any metric. They are supremely talented, 159 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 4: well coached, They run extremely good offense, they have a 160 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 4: ton of size, they have future NBA talent on the perimeter. 161 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 4: There's really no weaknesses to this team, and they can 162 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 4: just put runs on you fast. So I know I 163 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 4: could see Yukon being the exception to the rule at 164 00:09:53,880 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 4: least of late and I have them advancing to the 165 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 4: Elite eight. I think that they're that good, they're that dominant. 166 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 4: But this region, if you look at it, the committee 167 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 4: did them no favors. You have in Yukon's region, who's 168 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 4: the number one overall seed. You got Iowa State as 169 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 4: your two they were the Big Twelve champ. You have 170 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 4: Auburn as your four SEC champ. Ranked in the top 171 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 4: five on Ken Palm, it's arguably a top five team. 172 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 4: They're the four seed. Your three seed is Illinois, one 173 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 4: of the most talented offensive teams in the country. They 174 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 4: just won the Big Ten championships. You got the you know, 175 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 4: the Big East, the Big Ten, the SEC, and the 176 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 4: Big Twelve conference champions all in this region. And then 177 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 4: guess what. You have San Diego State as the five, 178 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 4: Florida Atlantic the eight. New Yukon could play in the 179 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,559 Speaker 4: second round. Both those teams with a number of the 180 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 4: same pieces last year, made it to the Final four 181 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 4: last year. So you have two Final four teams. In 182 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 4: addition is the teams that are seated five or less. 183 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 4: So this region is just absolutely loaded. And I mean 184 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 4: the fact that Yukon who you know, if you just 185 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 4: go based on Ken Palm, Yukon number one, Auburn also 186 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 4: in the top five, that could be a Sweet sixteen matchup. 187 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 4: So this is not an easy path but I don't. 188 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 4: I just don't trust the Auburn guards. They're too erratic 189 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 4: for me. So while I don't think it's necessarily a 190 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 4: bad strategy to have Auburn if you're in a big 191 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 4: pool beating Yukon there, I personally just can't see it. 192 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 4: I think that Yukon has too much class and they're 193 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 4: just too dominant. But history suggests the national champ we'll 194 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 4: make it till the second weekend over the past fifteen years. 195 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so interesting the conversation here. I live in 196 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 1: Central Connecticut. I live thirty five forty minutes from Yukon's campus. 197 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: My kid and I we went to Yukon game this year. 198 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: Danny Hurley is just becoming a legend in Central Connecticut 199 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 1: and in this state, not just because of how well 200 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: the team is playing, but he is no fox like. 201 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: He is out there. He is yelling at fans, he 202 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 1: is representing in every way. He is so freaking competitive, 203 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: he is so scrappy, he is so fun. I love 204 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 1: this Ucon team. I want them to advance. I'm glad 205 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 1: they got the number one seed. I feel like the 206 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: tournament does this every year. The NCAA does this every year, 207 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: they put like all the best bet on teams in 208 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: the same region, and it's so freaking annoying because you 209 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: spend four months tracking these teams and trying to get 210 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: a bead on who are the teams that you think 211 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: might be underrated that might give you a little bit 212 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,599 Speaker 1: of an advantage when you get to projecting in the 213 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: NCAA tournament as a better or as a racketeer, and 214 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: then they fuck you. The selection committee screws you every 215 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: single time. Stucky agree or disagree. 216 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean a lot of times they'll put like 217 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 4: two really good mid majors that I want to bet 218 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 4: on against each other in the first round, which I 219 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 4: always hate. This year, I had on our Big Bets 220 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 4: on Campus podcast, we put together a futures portfolio, one 221 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 4: bet a week over the past two months, and I 222 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 4: bet these four futures. Four of our futures are all 223 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 4: in the same region, with Houston and Kentucky winning the 224 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 4: national title. And then I have final four flyers on Texas, 225 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 4: A and M and Colorado who are all in the 226 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 4: South region. So hopefully at least one of those teams 227 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 4: comes out of the South. But you're right, yeah, the 228 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 4: committee more times than not botches. 229 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 2: It. 230 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 4: Look, at the end of the day, whoever gets in 231 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 4: gets in, and it's betters, then all right, give us 232 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 4: the matchups and then hey, let's get the lines and 233 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 4: then let's bet it. But this seating this year was 234 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 4: just so bizarre, and we are like thanking the chairman 235 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 4: for like who you know, how many people build brackets. 236 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 4: It's like, it's not this this job that takes like 237 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: this effort that should be rewarded. It's like, come on, 238 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 4: you're putting together a turn of bracket and this is 239 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 4: supposed to be your job and they can never get 240 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 4: it right, Like dou Caine in New Mexico are seated 241 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 4: the same. That's just insanity. But whatever, I'm past all 242 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 4: of that. We're onto the games, We're onto the bracket, 243 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 4: and we're on to try and find some. 244 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 2: Bets that stuck here. 245 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 3: Are there any big frauds that stand out to that 246 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 3: teams you want to fade head into this tournament that 247 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 3: you just haven't trusted heading into this thing, and now 248 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 3: they're playing against teams you do trust, and you're thinking 249 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 3: you're getting great value in that matchup. 250 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, generally speaking, the teams that profile as you 251 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 4: know upset can of dates is higher seeds. They all have, 252 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 4: you know, similar traits in that you know, if you 253 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 4: take them all together and then you map them out, 254 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 4: and a lot of times they're elite offenses with bad defenses. 255 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 4: And there's three teams that really stick out in that regard. 256 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 4: Unfortunately for me, I'm in Lexington. I hope Kentucky makes 257 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 4: a deep run for a future that I have, but 258 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 4: also for my wife's bars and the city. But Kentucky 259 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 4: elite offense, top ten, top five offense, arguably maybe the best, 260 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 4: a defense that sits outside the top one hundred and 261 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 4: overall just a efficiency. If you look at just that 262 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 4: profile top ten offense, defense outside the top one hundred, 263 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 4: no team is ever with that profile advanced past the 264 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 4: sweet sixteen. You know, also fits that profile in Alabama 265 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 4: team that you know, all offense, no defense they basically have. 266 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 4: They have no rim defense. They have just no one 267 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 4: really that has just great defensive DNA. It's a pretty 268 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 4: flawed roster from that perspective. They shoot a ton of threes, 269 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 4: they have an offshooting night, they're gone because they can't 270 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 4: stop anybody. Same with Kentucky. Kentucky just can't stop anybody, 271 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 4: and that is just not a recipe for success in 272 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 4: the tournament. Illinois also fits that profile, major defensive issues, 273 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 4: elite top five ish offense in the country. They're adjusted 274 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 4: defensiveicialing around like ninetieth. They remind me of a lot 275 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 4: of Iowa. Two years ago, we saw Keegan Murray rip 276 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 4: through the Big Ten tournament. Think he scored one hundred 277 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 4: and six points over the weekend. That same thing almost 278 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 4: happened this weekend with Arren Shann, but I think scored 279 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 4: close to one hundred. Illinois ran through the Big Ten 280 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 4: tournament and they are, you know, fifth in overall justed 281 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 4: OFFENSI efficiency. That's what Iowa was, and they both were 282 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 4: around eighty fifth, ninetieth. So I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois. Now, look, 283 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 4: they have the talent Terren chen Damask that off of 284 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 4: the talent to make a deep run, but they fit 285 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 4: the profile of a team that gets upset early on, 286 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 4: and they're playing a team that fits the profile of 287 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 4: one that pulls off an upset. As a lower seat, 288 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 4: you want to look for teams that play slower, like 289 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 4: if you look, if you group together, then all the 290 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 4: big upsets by lower seeds. A lot of them play 291 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 4: half court games, slow it down, fewer possessions, more variants, 292 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 4: and more head State super talented team. They got this 293 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 4: kid Riley Minnix who is JUCO Player of the Year, 294 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 4: the OVC Player of the Year six seven is to 295 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 4: score inside and out. They also shoot and make a 296 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 4: ton of threes, which is another characteristic you're looking for. 297 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,199 Speaker 4: And they're going to slow the game down. They're not 298 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 4: overly reliant on one player, so Illinois if you're looking 299 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 4: for just a crazy upset that not a lot of 300 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 4: people are going to have in their bracket. I also 301 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 4: like morehead State against the spread. Whine has come down 302 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 4: a little bit, but they could put a scare into 303 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 4: Illinois as long as they stat of foul trouble don't 304 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:53,120 Speaker 4: have much depth. 305 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 1: And I want to get I want to get deeper 306 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: into the first round because I think there's a lot 307 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: of ringing mashups and even if we don't like the seating, 308 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: there are some decent opportunities. Simon, can you name the 309 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: fastest growing ticketing app in the United States? 310 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 2: Game Time? 311 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 1: That's right, it's game Time. I love Game Time for 312 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,959 Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I 313 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 1: actually use game Time all the time. They have amazing 314 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: last minute deals including pro and college sports. Speaking of which, 315 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: I'm going to open the game Time app right now. 316 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 1: From my house here in Connecticut. What do you know, 317 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 1: I can see NCAA basketball at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, 318 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,719 Speaker 1: New York for less than one hundred dollars seventy five dollars. 319 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: In fact, no matter where you live, download the game 320 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,199 Speaker 1: Time app. Get out have some fun this week. You 321 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: deserve it. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars 322 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 1: off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the 323 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: game Time app and use code Favorites for twenty dollars 324 00:18:55,080 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: off your first purchased last minute tickets lowest prices. Garren Okay, 325 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: stuck your partner, Mike Calabrese, your BBOC partner, one of 326 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: our college basketball analysts, had a really interesting tweet. I 327 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: know it was late last night or this morning, about twelve, five, 328 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: thirteen four seeds. If you bet every twelve and thirteen 329 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: seed against the spread and on the money line, you've 330 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: made money in eleven of the past fifteen NCAA tournaments. 331 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: It's about fifty eight percent against the spread, and you're 332 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: up about fifteen units against the On the money line, 333 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 1: you're up about fourteen units in total. That means you'd 334 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: be placing sixteen bets eight against the spread eight money 335 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 1: line if you did the twelve five thirteen four Calabrese method. 336 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: Five twelve thirteen four is always an interesting matchup. You know, 337 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: you mentioned Illinois and Moorhead State. That's a three fourteen. 338 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 1: But as we're looking at these five twelves and these 339 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 1: thirteen fours, tell me what's standing out to you right now? 340 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean seven number thirteen seeds of one at 341 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 4: least well in the first round. Number thirteen seeds of 342 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 4: one in the first round over the past seven tournaments, 343 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 4: so you're averaging one per year, and one team seed 344 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 4: a thirteen or lower has won a first round game 345 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 4: in fourteen of the past fifteen NCAA tournaments. We've seen 346 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 4: a fifteen too win a game in each of the 347 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 4: past three tournaments getting to the sweet sixteenth. It's been 348 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 4: a crazy run for fifteen seeds. But looking at the 349 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 4: four thirteens, they all are really intriguing to me. As 350 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 4: you know, I could make a case why there could 351 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 4: be an upset, So we'll start. Let's start in the East. 352 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 4: We have Yale and Auburn. Auburn jobbed in their seating right, 353 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 4: they could arguably metricwise, should be a one or at two. 354 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 4: Now they get Yale. Yale does a couple things. Look, 355 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 4: we've seen IVY League teams like Princeton last year make 356 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 4: a runner. The Speed sixteen is a fifteen seed. They 357 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 4: beat a way more talented team in Arizona in the 358 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 4: first round of two seed, which is where you know, Arizona, 359 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 4: excuse me, where Auburn should really be here. What does 360 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 4: Yale do? They slow the game down, right, They have 361 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 4: a lot of They can shoot from three. They also 362 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 4: have some mid range shooters, which you need against the 363 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 4: Auburn defense that really does take away anything at the 364 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 4: rim and does effectively take away the three point shot. 365 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 4: But you know, they don't really turn it over. They're 366 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 4: good on the defensive glass. They're just not going to 367 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 4: beat themselves, and they're going to grind the game down 368 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 4: to a halt run, good offense. They're well coached, so 369 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 4: Auburn is. And look, not turning it over as important 370 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 4: against Auburn's defense. So if Yale can just grind that 371 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 4: game down to a halt and make it uncomfortable for Auburn. 372 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 4: You know, then the nerves are going to start coming in. 373 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 4: Yale fits the profile a team that pulls off upsets 374 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 4: to the West, Colgate, what are we doing? Four to 375 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 4: thirteens the West? Alabama Charleston. This is the reason you 376 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 4: would pick Charleston. This is your three point variance game. 377 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 4: All this game is is three point variants. These are 378 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 4: two of the highest three point shooting rate teams in 379 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 4: the country. There's going to be breeze all over play. 380 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 4: So how does Alabama lose this game? And both these 381 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 4: defenses have holes all over they have an all shooting 382 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 4: then they go, you know, six of thirty from three. 383 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 4: They could lose this game. If Charleston isn't all shooting night, 384 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 4: they're going to lose by thirty because then Alabama, in 385 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 4: transitioning at the rim, is gonna eat them alive. But 386 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 4: that's what you're looking for when you want to pick 387 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 4: an upset two I think things you want to look for. 388 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 4: Can a team really slow it down, lower the possessions, 389 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 4: if they shoot a lot of threes, that's even better, 390 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 4: Increase the variants even more, or you have a team 391 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 4: in a super fast paced game with a lot of 392 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 4: three point variants and they're capable of matching the other 393 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,400 Speaker 4: three three. And if you want to know how high 394 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 4: scoring this game potentially could be, I believe the totals 395 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 4: at one seventy two have not seen a total that 396 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 4: high in a tournament game since nineteen ninety five. So 397 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 4: there should be a ton of points here. But if 398 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 4: Alabama is an all shooting night, their defense has major holes. 399 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 4: Charleston can shoot the three they've been red hot of late, 400 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 4: as long as the regression bug doesn't hit. If Alabama's 401 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 4: all from three, Charleston's winning that game. 402 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: In the South, by the way, I'll say our man 403 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, just because it's not NFL season doesn't mean 404 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 1: that Evanie Abrams doesn't dig into the stats. He tweeted 405 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 1: out that exact stat about this being the highest total 406 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: basically in almost twenty years, this Alabama Charleston game. 407 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,959 Speaker 4: Yeah, now it was, and now it's up to one 408 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 4: seventy two, which is high since nineteen ninety five. In 409 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 4: the South, you have Duke who in twenty twelve and 410 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 4: in twenty fourteen. Some people don't remember they were upset 411 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 4: as a top three seed against Mercer and Lehigh with CJ. McCollum, 412 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 4: have been avoided any of those upsets since. But Vermont 413 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 4: well coached team. They are experienced, They have an outstanding defense, 414 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 4: and they slow the game down to a crawl. They 415 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 4: you know, don't go after any offensive rebounds because they 416 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,719 Speaker 4: want to get back and do not let you get 417 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 4: in transition. They want the game to be super slow, 418 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 4: half court, grinded out style, and Duke doesn't play that 419 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 4: fast this year, so this should be a half court game. 420 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,880 Speaker 4: Vermont also shoots a ton of threes, so there's high 421 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 4: variants here. They're not great from the perimeter, but they have, 422 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 4: you know, a few different capable guys who can get hot, 423 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 4: so you know they're not going to beat themselves again. 424 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 4: They're good on the defensive glass, they don't foul, they 425 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 4: don't turn it over on the offensive end. If they're 426 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 4: hitting their threes in a lower scoring game. Right this 427 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 4: totals round, I think one point thirty one ish Vermont 428 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 4: could potentially have the opportunity. Now they're going to be 429 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,159 Speaker 4: extremely at They're going to be an extreme disadvantage as 430 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 4: far as talent and athleticism, especially at the guard positions, 431 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 4: but their defense is legit. They have a kid at 432 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 4: the rim who's really good and a kid Bogues on 433 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 4: the outside who's a lockdown perimeter defender. They're making their threes. 434 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 4: Look out. You could have Vermont putting a scare or 435 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 4: potentially pulling off an upset, as it did in two 436 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 4: thousand and five when TJ. Soorantine famously hit that shot 437 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,159 Speaker 4: from the parking lot, which was Vermont's only tournament win 438 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 4: in program history. And then going to the West the Midwest, 439 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:37,719 Speaker 4: we have what Samford Kansas. Now, what's interesting about this matchup. 440 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 4: I don't really love the matchup for Sanford because Samford 441 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 4: wants to run. They play what's called Bucky Ball under 442 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 4: their coach Bucky McMillan, Super up tempo, just run, run, running, gun, transition, 443 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 4: They press, they try to force turnovers. They run heavy, 444 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 4: extended pressure zone. Getting into a transition game with Kansas 445 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 4: and zoning Kansas isn't the best idea. They also don't 446 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 4: have size to deal with Hunter Dickinson. But there are 447 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 4: some things that potentially could work in sanford'sia. They are fast, 448 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 4: but they shoot a ton of threes. They allow a 449 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 4: ton of three, so they could have three point variants 450 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 4: working in their favor. It is a team, by the way, 451 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 4: that lost by fifty five to Purdue in the first 452 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 4: game of the season. They had no answer for Eaty. 453 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 4: But what makes this game interesting is that Kansas has injuries. 454 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 4: You know, two of their best players and two of 455 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 4: the best players in the country Kevin mccullor is going 456 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 4: to play at the next level Hunter Dickinson. 457 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 2: They're big men. 458 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 4: They didn't play in the Big twelve tournament. Now some 459 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 4: of that was probably precautionary, but we don't know how 460 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 4: healthy they really are or how limited they'll be. And 461 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,360 Speaker 4: kind of a nuanced thing here is this game will 462 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 4: be played in Salt Lake City. Samford is deep, one 463 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,719 Speaker 4: of the deepest teams in the country, if not the most. 464 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,680 Speaker 4: You know, they go, we'll go twelve deep. They have 465 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 4: eight guys who shoot over thirty eight percent from three, 466 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 4: and they will chuck threes. But they have a lot 467 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 4: of depth. They're playing in outitude. Kansas doesn't have a 468 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 4: lot of depth, and if they're also dealing with injuries, 469 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 4: you know, that could show in the second half of 470 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 4: this game, where Samford could potentially you know, in an 471 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 4: up tempo game, wear down Kansas, the legs could potentially 472 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 4: go so on paper, I don't love getting you know, 473 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 4: a team that's super fast paced, not not a lot 474 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 4: of size, and Kansas is such a good transition offense. 475 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,719 Speaker 4: But the injuries, the altitude, Sanford's depth make it really interesting. 476 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 4: So I can make a case for any of the four. 477 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 4: What I would recommend, and what I usually do from 478 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 4: this crop is, you know the thirteen seeds, don't pick 479 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 4: them all to advance, pick one that you like and 480 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 4: roll with that. You don't want to go all upsets, 481 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 4: but you know, if there's a thirteen or fourteen that 482 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 4: you really like, you know, maybe pick one or two 483 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,239 Speaker 4: from the thirteen to fifteen seed line. That's usually what 484 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 4: I do, and I'll have a piece out if it's 485 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 4: not up already. Actually, overk dot com, I rank all 486 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 4: of the potential upset chances of the thirteen through fifteen seeds. 487 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 4: And it's not just by projected lines. It's also looking 488 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 4: at the matchup and then the amount of variants in 489 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,199 Speaker 4: that game, so the pace, the amount of threes, you know, 490 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 4: any injury concerns. So definitely could make a case for 491 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 4: all of the thirteens here, but don't go crazy and 492 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 4: pick them all. 493 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,160 Speaker 1: That piece is out because I'm reading it, Sorry, Simon, 494 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 1: I just wanted people to know. Go to actionnetwork dot 495 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: com download the Action Network Gap checkout Stucky's piece on 496 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,719 Speaker 1: his best bets for seats thirteen to fifteen. 497 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 2: Simon, go and just picking back off what he's saying. 498 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 2: That's that I saw. 499 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 3: I don't know if it was Evan or one of 500 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 3: our guys from Action tweeted out that if you're looking 501 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 3: for futures and the crazy upsets, college basketball's not the 502 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 3: greatest place. Apparently the last forty years, there's only been 503 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 3: four twenty one to one or longer long shots that 504 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 3: came through and won the national title. And surprisingly two 505 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 3: of the times those Yukon, which with one of them 506 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 3: was last year and the other two were Villanova, So 507 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 3: it tends to be if you're betting the future market. 508 00:28:58,200 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 3: I think Stucky's kind of touching a little bit here 509 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 3: where it's like there's so many variances in shooting, you 510 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 3: just want to bet the best team for the most 511 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 3: part of the best coach in college basketball, And I mean, 512 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 3: people don't remember that Ukon team last year was one 513 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 3: of the best college basketball teams we've ever seen. Quietly, 514 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 3: people don't realize, I mean, I'm almost Obbausly. They won 515 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 3: every game by double digits. In their final Yeah, their 516 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 3: final game was against San Diego State, which is just 517 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 3: crazy to think back that San Diego State was almost. 518 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 2: The winner of March Madness last year. 519 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 3: So I got a lot of questions about people asking 520 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 3: me about the long shot stuff. I feel like, Stuck, 521 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 3: he's kind of talking about it right here where it's 522 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 3: like a lot of the best teams are kind of 523 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 3: going to move on here. 524 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 2: So you know, I didn't know if you mentioned it yet, Stuck. 525 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 2: Do you have anything you haven't said. 526 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 3: Yet of your favorite ATS bets for the next Thursday 527 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 3: Friday matchups? 528 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I let's see on. Let me pull up the 529 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 4: app to see what I have on Thursday. I already 530 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 4: talked about more at State. I think that's you know, 531 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 4: the line has come down a little bit. I still 532 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 4: like it a bit from where it is against Illinois, 533 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 4: a team that profiles is a great upset candidate, very 534 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 4: well coached experience. Going up against that Illinois team that 535 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 4: just really lacks defense. I also like Drake against Washington State. Drake, 536 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 4: you can be pretty close to home, might have a 537 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 4: little home crowd advantage, and I like the matchup for them. 538 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 4: They're big men, can stay on the court in this 539 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 4: particular matchup. Their super experienced. They were here last year. 540 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 4: They were up by eight five to go in Miami. 541 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 4: You went to the final four and just choked away 542 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 4: the lead. Debrees their best player had one of his 543 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 4: worst games. I really like this matchup for Drake. Just 544 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 4: x's and O's off that written up as to why 545 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 4: I won't go too deep into it. I also like 546 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 4: Akron on Thursday. It's not a pick. I've seen a 547 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 4: lot of people talk about either way in the game 548 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,160 Speaker 4: between Akron and Creighton. But the MAC has quietly been 549 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 4: very good as double did underdogs, and their coach John 550 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 4: Gross in particular, has been great in the tournament. He's 551 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 4: seven to one against the spread and has pulled off 552 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 4: a couple upsets when he was with Ohio now he's 553 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 4: with Akron. But this Acron team they folded down the stretch. 554 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 4: They kind of picked it up in the MAC tournament. 555 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 4: They got a little lucky. There was a Kent State 556 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 4: foul at the end of the game, thinking the game, 557 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 4: you know, if they had a foub but they were 558 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 4: actually up one with four to go. That's the only 559 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 4: reason that they're here. I still feel bad for that kid. 560 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 4: But they were just they couldn't make a three. They 561 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 4: were shooting like they shot like twenty eight percent from 562 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 4: three after February first, they were thirty four percent before. 563 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 4: So they were just running into some bad shooting variants. 564 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 4: But Ackron can do a number of things here. One, 565 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 4: they generally slowed the game down. They are very experienced, 566 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 4: and this was a team, you know, three or four 567 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 4: starters are back from a team that two years ago 568 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 4: in the tournament took UCLA down to the wire. Final 569 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 4: score of that game fifty seven to fifty three. Creyton 570 00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,239 Speaker 4: does not play fast. They're very methodical. Akron, you know, 571 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 4: is gonna slow this game down. You have to hit 572 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 4: mid range jumpers. Against Creighton. They play a drop defense 573 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 4: with KLK Brenner protects the rim Kent State. Excuse me. 574 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,640 Speaker 4: Akron has a number of those guys who can hit 575 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 4: mid range jumpers. They have a big their center who 576 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 4: can step out and hit from three at like thirty 577 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 4: six thirty seven percent Enrique Freeman's a really good player. 578 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:27,800 Speaker 4: This is really experienced team that's gonna slow the game 579 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,959 Speaker 4: down right it to a halt. And if you're you know, 580 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 4: looking at the matchup on both sides, it's not a 581 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,479 Speaker 4: terrible matchup for Akron, So I wouldn't be surprised if 582 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 4: that game is close late. I think that there's definitely 583 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:47,080 Speaker 4: some value in the Zips Friday. I I like Baylor 584 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 4: to blow the doors off of Colgate. The athletic and 585 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 4: talent mismatch there is just too great, and Baylor should 586 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 4: be getting Nanston Love back. He's one of the best 587 00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 4: six men in the country. They have three future NBA players. 588 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 4: I just I cannot see Colgate hanging around. This is 589 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 4: not the same Colgate team that we saw the past 590 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 4: couple of years. Their offensive adjusted deficiency last year forty fourth, 591 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 4: this year two hundred and twelve. They lost two really 592 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 4: important wing players. Their defense is a little bit better, 593 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 4: but they are They're just going to be athletically overmatched here. 594 00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 4: So I think Baylor eventually pulls away from Colgate and 595 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 4: those offenses that were better than this year against kind 596 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,719 Speaker 4: of similar teams in two of the past three years. 597 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 4: You know, They were in it against Wisconsin in kind 598 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 4: of a half court ish battle, but they lost by 599 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 4: twenty to Texas. They lost by seventeen to Arkansas. I 600 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 4: think that's what we're looking at against a Baylor team, young, talented, 601 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 4: They've changed their defense. They're gone more zone, which Drew 602 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 4: used to run of late, which has fixed some of 603 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 4: their issues, will make them even more dangerous in the tournament. 604 00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 4: Outside of conference play, Drew had some teams that he 605 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 4: took to the legally because of his zone. I think bayl 606 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 4: are not the worst pick to make it to the 607 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:10,719 Speaker 4: final four as well. That West Region with North Carolina 608 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 4: is the one very vulnerable one, especially compared to the others. 609 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 4: I think there could be chaos in that region if 610 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 4: I was very confident. I'm still filling out my bracket. 611 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,800 Speaker 4: I went through all the first round games over the 612 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 4: past two days. I now have to go through every 613 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 4: potential matchup over the next day, so I haven't finalized 614 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 4: like how my bracket's breaking yet. But even though I've 615 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:35,680 Speaker 4: gone through all the first rounds, I'm still not confident 616 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,400 Speaker 4: who wins Michigan State Mississippi State. There's always this dilemma 617 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,759 Speaker 4: the one seed that I want to fade and or 618 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,680 Speaker 4: just knock them off my bracket. They always get the 619 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 4: eight to nine game that I don't have any confidence in. 620 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:50,400 Speaker 4: So then if you pick if I picked Michigan State 621 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,399 Speaker 4: to beat North Carolina, and by the way, that line 622 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,120 Speaker 4: would be like three and a half, that Michigan State 623 00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 4: and North Carolina are not that far apart. But if 624 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 4: I pick Michigan State and then they lose Misissippi State, 625 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:06,360 Speaker 4: which wouldn't shock me, then my bracket's ruined regardless. But 626 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 4: I think Baylor has a really good shot of getting 627 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:09,919 Speaker 4: to the final four. 628 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:16,319 Speaker 1: I have a joke sounds like sounds like Colgate maybe 629 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 1: didn't floss as well this year. That's why they're efficiency dropped. 630 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:28,000 Speaker 1: You know, guys, it's an audio medium, so you know, 631 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,840 Speaker 1: if anybody wants to laugh, Tito is coming after me 632 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 1: in the comments here. Good lord, that's terrible. You know what, 633 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,800 Speaker 1: I think it's time. I think it's time to transition. 634 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,040 Speaker 4: To some great wisdom to. 635 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:49,879 Speaker 1: Oh Stock and now a word from our sponsors at 636 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:53,319 Speaker 1: good Shop. 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So go to good chop dot com, slash 654 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,719 Speaker 1: favorites one twenty and use code Favorites one twenty to 655 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,400 Speaker 1: get one hundred and twenty dollars off across your first 656 00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:04,360 Speaker 1: four boxes. That's code at Favorites one. That's code favorites 657 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 1: one twenty at good chop dot Com for one hundred 658 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,800 Speaker 1: and twenty dollars off good chop dot Com with code 659 00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 1: favorites one twenty. I mean, look, you can find a 660 00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 1: lot about putting your head up a cow's ass, remember that, 661 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:24,240 Speaker 1: Tommy boy. 662 00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, you're getting there. Hey, I tell you what. 663 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 1: You can take a good look at a butcher's ass 664 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:30,319 Speaker 1: by sticking your head up there. 665 00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,400 Speaker 4: But wouldn't you rather take his word for it? What? 666 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,080 Speaker 1: All right, here's another great stat stock and I'm gonna 667 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna set you I'm going to set you up. 668 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,600 Speaker 1: Everyone's been talking about this, but I just want people 669 00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,320 Speaker 1: to be clearer. So everyone loves ken Pom. Ken Palm 670 00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 1: for years has been going on twenty plus years, has 671 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:52,160 Speaker 1: been using these advanced analytics that everybody who follows college 672 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 1: basketball focuses on more when it comes to power rankings 673 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 1: than just about anything else. 674 00:37:58,280 --> 00:37:58,440 Speaker 4: Right. 675 00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:02,800 Speaker 1: I can remember being in the back of the super 676 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 1: Book talking to j Cornegie about what he was looking 677 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 1: at in college basketball. You know, fifteen years ago when 678 00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,640 Speaker 1: I first heard the phrase ken Pom and how bookmakers 679 00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,919 Speaker 1: were using ken Pom to help create their point spreads. 680 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:25,920 Speaker 1: So ken Pom pre tournament data twenty two of the 681 00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:31,840 Speaker 1: last twenty four national champions in ken Pom had a 682 00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: top eighteen adjusted offense. Twenty three of the last twenty 683 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:42,160 Speaker 1: four national champs had a top thirty seven adjusted defense. 684 00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:51,080 Speaker 1: That leaves us with seven legit title contenders. These teams 685 00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:56,280 Speaker 1: were all in the top categories of ken Pom adjusted 686 00:38:56,280 --> 00:39:05,480 Speaker 1: offense and defense. Yukon, Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Creighton, Auburn, Duke. 687 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: This does not include, by the way, North Carolina, Iowa State, Tennessee, Marquette. 688 00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:23,279 Speaker 1: I'm talking about four one and two seeds right there, Illinois, Baylor, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Alabama, 689 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,879 Speaker 1: three teams that Stuck mentioned earlier as sort of being 690 00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,719 Speaker 1: those all offense, no defense teams that tend to struggle 691 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,239 Speaker 1: in the tournament. All right, So knowing that Stuck, can 692 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:38,040 Speaker 1: you give me your top futures bets right now? 693 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 4: Top futures bets? I don't know mine already that I 694 00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:49,040 Speaker 4: haven't looked at a futures odds board, but I would 695 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 4: say my pick. I'm a stubborn man. My picked since 696 00:39:54,120 --> 00:40:00,400 Speaker 4: the beginning of the season has been Houston. Now about 697 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:06,120 Speaker 4: I'm getting very weird vibes because I I shouldn't say 698 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:07,719 Speaker 4: since the beginning of the year, but this was, you know, 699 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,000 Speaker 4: maybe a month or two into the season. I said, 700 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:15,239 Speaker 4: Houston's the best team. They should not be plus nine 701 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:18,719 Speaker 4: to fifty, ten to one, and you know now they're 702 00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 4: I don't know, six, six to one. About halfway through 703 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,279 Speaker 4: the NFL season, I said Baltimore is the best team. 704 00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,319 Speaker 4: They should not be ten to one. They should be 705 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,520 Speaker 4: the favorite. And that's where they ended up, just like 706 00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:36,240 Speaker 4: where Houston is now, right in the same ballpark as Yukon. 707 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,880 Speaker 4: And then they ran into Patrick Mahomes and forgot how 708 00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,319 Speaker 4: to run the ball, so. 709 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,960 Speaker 1: Chose not to run the ball, by the way, chose 710 00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:47,120 Speaker 1: not to run the ball. 711 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,279 Speaker 4: Or throw with play action. But look, yeah, I'm not 712 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 4: still bitter, but I still think Houston is going to 713 00:40:55,239 --> 00:41:00,400 Speaker 4: get this done. Now. They it's really amazing what they've done. 714 00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,880 Speaker 4: Some of their injuries and so their depth is iffy. 715 00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:10,120 Speaker 4: They lost Tuggler, who's just a suit. He brings super length, 716 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,560 Speaker 4: and they're gonna miss him a bit. Now they can 717 00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 4: you know, they can still get it done without them. 718 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,600 Speaker 4: But it's a very aggressive defense. It's the best defense 719 00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 4: in the country for my money. So at times they 720 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,680 Speaker 4: can foul, and you know, they foil at a pretty 721 00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:30,600 Speaker 4: high rate because they're so aggressive. So you know, all 722 00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 4: it takes is I don't think that there's anyone that 723 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,040 Speaker 4: they're gonna have trouble with getting passed to the second weekend. 724 00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:37,800 Speaker 4: Maybe Wade Taylor for Texas A and him if he 725 00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,080 Speaker 4: goes bananas, they should get to the second weekend. But 726 00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:44,680 Speaker 4: you know, you play like a super talented team and 727 00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,240 Speaker 4: you get in foul trouble early with all the injuries. 728 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:48,919 Speaker 4: They lost the kid to Arsenal early in the year, 729 00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:54,919 Speaker 4: they lost someone another contributor to after that, so their 730 00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,240 Speaker 4: depth gets really thin if they get into foul trouble early, 731 00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:02,600 Speaker 4: which does scare me a bit. But I trusted Sampson, 732 00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,640 Speaker 4: who's a great coach. I trust Jamal Shed who's one 733 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,440 Speaker 4: of the best point guards in the country that plays 734 00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:11,040 Speaker 4: in March, and he's a guy who is not looking 735 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,200 Speaker 4: to score all the time. And you do have a 736 00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,719 Speaker 4: scoring threat on the outside. An LJ. Cryer can get 737 00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:20,400 Speaker 4: red hot from three party has a deep run in 738 00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:25,880 Speaker 4: the tournament national title with Baylor. But Shed can just 739 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:27,959 Speaker 4: he is so smart, not only in the defensive ends, 740 00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,120 Speaker 4: one of the best defensive players in the country, but 741 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,279 Speaker 4: he facilitates. But when the team's going through a scoring drought, 742 00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:36,600 Speaker 4: which Houston can do it, he could turn on the scoring. 743 00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,920 Speaker 4: And he's just such a good feel for knowing when 744 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,520 Speaker 4: he needs to be that scoring threat and when he 745 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,480 Speaker 4: needs to be that facilitator. Their defense is always going 746 00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,719 Speaker 4: to play, even when they have an off shooting day. 747 00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:50,800 Speaker 4: It's not an elite shooting team. They don't take great shots, 748 00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:55,560 Speaker 4: but they are an elite on the offensive glass, which plays, 749 00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,400 Speaker 4: and you don't. You're not overly three point reliant. So 750 00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,560 Speaker 4: I'm gonna trust Shed, I'm gonna trust Sampson to get 751 00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 4: this done, and hopefully Yukon gets picked off before the 752 00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,319 Speaker 4: National Championship, because that would mean Houston would be the 753 00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,799 Speaker 4: best team per my Power ratings in my head as well, 754 00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,880 Speaker 4: the best team left standing. I also liked their path, 755 00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,320 Speaker 4: like if you look at who they could face in 756 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:27,560 Speaker 4: the Sweet sixteen, Wisconsin or Duke, Like Wisconsin can't defend 757 00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,120 Speaker 4: at the rim, They're going to get bullied, and that's 758 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:34,239 Speaker 4: Duke's biggest problem in my eyes, similar to last year. 759 00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,239 Speaker 4: You know, Tennessee. That was the big talking point going 760 00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:43,160 Speaker 4: into that game, and it came true that Duke couldn't 761 00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:48,760 Speaker 4: handle the Tennessee physicality, and this Duke team also lacks 762 00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,360 Speaker 4: in that department you saw. I think that's part of 763 00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,520 Speaker 4: the reason why they got swept by Carolina is in 764 00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:58,000 Speaker 4: both those games, if you watch them, they just yea, 765 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:02,279 Speaker 4: Carolina looked like men versus boys at times, and on 766 00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,759 Speaker 4: the perimeter and inside they were just bowling them. That's 767 00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,480 Speaker 4: what I think will happen if the chalk holds and 768 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,520 Speaker 4: Duke gets to Houston. So I think Houston gets to 769 00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,440 Speaker 4: the Elite eight. And then in that bottom half, who 770 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,600 Speaker 4: do you have Texas Tech potential dangerous team If you 771 00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,080 Speaker 4: look at all the starting fives at least one hundred possessions, 772 00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:24,839 Speaker 4: they have one that is has the highest overall justed 773 00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,360 Speaker 4: efficiency in all of college basketball. But they have a 774 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:28,880 Speaker 4: couple guys that are injured. Are they going to be 775 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:33,200 Speaker 4: fully healthy? Marquette Is Tyler Kohleck fully healthy, didn't play 776 00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,839 Speaker 4: the biggest tournament, hasn't played since last month, dealing with 777 00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,719 Speaker 4: an oblique injury is their most important player. And then 778 00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,520 Speaker 4: you know Florida just lost their big men. One of 779 00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,400 Speaker 4: their most important big men. Do an injury, a brutal 780 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,160 Speaker 4: injury if you saw it to his leg. And then 781 00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:50,880 Speaker 4: you have Kentucky, a team that historically you can't trust 782 00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:54,560 Speaker 4: because they don't play enough defense to get through six games, 783 00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:59,400 Speaker 4: and especially elite compeition. So I think the South is 784 00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:04,200 Speaker 4: a really gettable region and a good break for how 785 00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:06,840 Speaker 4: the draw broke for Houston. So I'm gonna say Houston. 786 00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:09,319 Speaker 4: I like Houston to get out of here, and I'm 787 00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:11,040 Speaker 4: sticking with my guns and saying Houston wins at all. 788 00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 1: I feel like I've come to the conclusion on my 789 00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:22,719 Speaker 1: final four. Are you ready? Yep, Houston. I want to 790 00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:27,760 Speaker 1: say Auburn, but I'm going with Yukon. I'm going with Purdue, 791 00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,000 Speaker 1: and then I think. 792 00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:32,640 Speaker 4: Out of the rest one so far, you're really going 793 00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:33,200 Speaker 4: on a limb here. 794 00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,880 Speaker 1: It's Chalky. Listen, by the way, you're going out of 795 00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,120 Speaker 1: the limb because it doesn't happen as often as you think, 796 00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,520 Speaker 1: so it actually is kind of risky. And then out 797 00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:45,799 Speaker 1: of the West, I'm going with Arizona, but I'm also 798 00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,160 Speaker 1: choosing four teams, Chalky, Chad, I'm choosing four teams that 799 00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:54,560 Speaker 1: are in that Ken palm seven, right, and so the 800 00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,440 Speaker 1: the one I would trade out. It's Chalky Chad, but 801 00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:03,760 Speaker 1: also a little bit homer Chad, because I'm favoring Yukon 802 00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,280 Speaker 1: just because it's more fun for me personally and locally 803 00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,920 Speaker 1: when Yukon is advancing, because our whole little town, it 804 00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:14,080 Speaker 1: was Harford gets a little crazy, and the mayor mayor 805 00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:17,160 Speaker 1: was Harford lives down the block and her family big, 806 00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,160 Speaker 1: big yukonners, so it'll be a fun time on our block. 807 00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,040 Speaker 4: And Chad decided to get crazy and went with the 808 00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,880 Speaker 4: two seed in the West. I can't happen. That is 809 00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,879 Speaker 4: that is just shocking. By the way, I will say 810 00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:31,920 Speaker 4: a crazy stat when you're filling out your bracket, maybe 811 00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:33,960 Speaker 4: this is the year it happens, and it doesn't mean 812 00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,120 Speaker 4: it can't happen. But a one versus the two in 813 00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:40,880 Speaker 4: the elite eight has not happened since twenty nineteen. So 814 00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,920 Speaker 4: that means in any region there hasn't been a one 815 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:48,480 Speaker 4: versus a two that get there. They've gone oh fifteen, Well, 816 00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,759 Speaker 4: I guess that's it wasn't a tournament. Yeah, one verse 817 00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,960 Speaker 4: two is when you phone out your bracket, you know, 818 00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:54,880 Speaker 4: it doesn't mean it can't happen this year it won't, 819 00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,960 Speaker 4: but you know. It shows you how chaotic these brackets get. 820 00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,520 Speaker 4: So if you see yourself with like three regions that 821 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:07,160 Speaker 4: have one verse two, you might want to switch some 822 00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:09,160 Speaker 4: things up. It's okay to I think I do have 823 00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,800 Speaker 4: one of the regions with one verse two this year. 824 00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:16,680 Speaker 4: But yeah, as an Eppisode twenty nine team, when Duke 825 00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:18,480 Speaker 4: played Michigan State, what are you gonna say? 826 00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:20,480 Speaker 1: Sorry, yes, Sam, what are you going to say? 827 00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,280 Speaker 2: You're good? You know my crazy theory. 828 00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,080 Speaker 3: One of the first lessons I learned from professional better 829 00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,920 Speaker 3: is you bet on a blue team in college basketball. 830 00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:33,560 Speaker 3: And it sounds crazy people the blue bloods, but every year. 831 00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,080 Speaker 2: I fill out my bracket that way. 832 00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,680 Speaker 3: If it's two teams matched up, I go with the 833 00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:38,840 Speaker 3: team that wears blue. 834 00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:41,160 Speaker 2: Long behold. If you go through just. 835 00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:43,880 Speaker 3: Even the last couple, I don't even thirty twenty years, 836 00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:46,560 Speaker 3: it's gonna be predominant teams that wear blue that win 837 00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,719 Speaker 3: the national title. Again, I know it sounds stupid, but 838 00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,600 Speaker 3: it's the way it works, these blue blood teams. So yeah, 839 00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,600 Speaker 3: for me, keeping it simple, I go blue heavy with 840 00:47:55,640 --> 00:48:00,440 Speaker 3: my final four. I got you converse Arizona Duke, Creyton 841 00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,600 Speaker 3: Duke versus Yukon in the final. I'm a Duke fan, obviously, 842 00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,440 Speaker 3: people know that with Yukon win it all, repeat champs 843 00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,400 Speaker 3: like stuck said to be the first one since Florida, 844 00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,800 Speaker 3: which if you don't remember, if you're too young to remember, 845 00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:17,200 Speaker 3: go watch those Florida teams basically had seniors and juniors 846 00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,080 Speaker 3: on the team that could easily gone to the NBA, 847 00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,360 Speaker 3: but stayed to win the national titles. 848 00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:24,279 Speaker 2: So we're due. We're due for a repeat champ. So 849 00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,400 Speaker 2: I'm with chat. I like. I like the fun of 850 00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:28,160 Speaker 2: betting the Yukon that win it All this year. 851 00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:31,080 Speaker 4: One that's the craziest thing I've ever heard. 852 00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,360 Speaker 2: But two blue bloods. 853 00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,360 Speaker 4: But two that's who that pick a random way to 854 00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:38,879 Speaker 4: fill out your bracket and you'll have just as good 855 00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,600 Speaker 4: a chance as someone who actually follows the sport. That's 856 00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,279 Speaker 4: just how it works. Can but trivia, can you name 857 00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,520 Speaker 4: the two champions over the past twenty years that did 858 00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:49,200 Speaker 4: not wear a blue It's only been. 859 00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:54,680 Speaker 2: Two, but Baylor's won yep, And then we will Louisville. 860 00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:59,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, Louisville in twenty thirteen, which technically was vacated. And 861 00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:05,359 Speaker 4: by the way, chadlu people you mentioned, uh well, I'll 862 00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:06,959 Speaker 4: have to check back on the against the spread record 863 00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:12,480 Speaker 4: of blue teams over the best and just stay away 864 00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:16,080 Speaker 4: if it's blue verse blue. But you mentioned Jake Cornegae Legend, 865 00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:21,359 Speaker 4: Jay Uh and Ken Palm. I know a professional better. 866 00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,560 Speaker 4: When Ken Palm was first starting to come out, that 867 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,880 Speaker 4: offered to pay Ken Pom to go away. 868 00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:31,759 Speaker 1: Wow, no way. Yeah, well it was too much of 869 00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:35,480 Speaker 1: an edge, and now everybody knows it. Apparently everybody knows 870 00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:40,359 Speaker 1: Ken Pomp except the Instateable Thing Selection Committee, who does 871 00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,600 Speaker 1: not have any idea what Ken Pom is, Otherwise they 872 00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:46,880 Speaker 1: would be seeding these teams a little bit differently. Stuckey 873 00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:55,600 Speaker 1: BBOC host Extraordinary Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. You got 874 00:49:55,640 --> 00:50:01,640 Speaker 1: two weeks, man, two weeks to hunker down, close and epic. 875 00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:05,239 Speaker 1: What is that eight month run from the beginning of 876 00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,759 Speaker 1: college football to the end of college basketball? Thanks for 877 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:10,759 Speaker 1: coming on The Favorites podcast, Buddy, Good. 878 00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:12,320 Speaker 4: Luck in the tournament everybody. 879 00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,320 Speaker 1: As a reminder for the second time, catch every episode 880 00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:18,280 Speaker 1: of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, 881 00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,239 Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe right now. 882 00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:25,400 Speaker 1: If you are watching, subscribe right now. Just click the button. 883 00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,640 Speaker 1: It's right there. 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