1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single. 2 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: Best idea, which is with all the distractions, we got 3 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 2: through the morning, so simple as that. Just to give 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 2: you a snapshot into it. There was a point where 5 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: we had four events going on at once and everyone, 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 2: you know, should do this, do this, do this. We're 7 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: making it up as we go, as we do with 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: single best idea. Audichild Freeman joined us here talk about 9 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: what's after Chairman Powell. Weaker dollar, stronger, Euro, stronger, yen 10 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 2: even em doing quite well as well, Audichild Friedman and 11 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: the euro, the dollar, all of that. 12 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 3: You know, euro dollar strench with the exception and we 13 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 3: say the you know, the German fiscal announcement has been 14 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 3: many dollars week of dollar driven. And what I'm saying 15 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 3: is that, you know, if we want euro dollar to 16 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 3: go to one forty, and I think it's feasible, we 17 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 3: kind of need a new trigger. But it's stun on Europe. 18 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 3: All of the bad news out of the US, well, 19 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 3: I hope so anyway, but most of that is kind 20 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 3: of in the price or maybe we maybe we break 21 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 3: one twenty, but can we go to one tea? Can 22 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 3: we say that? And for that to happen. Tom, I'd 23 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: like to see a trigger coming out of Europe. 24 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 2: It really folds into travel for Americans. We had a 25 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 2: free lunch with someone say of a strong dollar week 26 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 2: euro advantaging our travel across the ocean, and frankly weaker 27 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,119 Speaker 2: sterling as well. That's changing. It's been a what nine 28 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: percent move or so in weeker dollar you see a 29 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: double of that has already alluded to. Wow, that makes 30 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 2: the travel different. Tony Cascenzi whe there's some pemical expert 31 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: and short term paper just riveting today on what long 32 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:02,919 Speaker 2: duration actually means. Tony Cascenzi on the American economy. 33 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 4: All we have to look at is how fast can 34 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 4: the economy grow? How fast is it growing? And that 35 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,119 Speaker 4: that suggests a growth recession, not an outright session, which 36 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 4: is defined as a contraction in GDP, which was seen 37 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 4: in the first quarter of the year. But what if 38 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 4: the economy grows at one percent sort of prim coup 39 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 4: projection in that zone and consensus for the next year 40 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 4: the Fed says it can grow according to the Summary 41 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 4: of Economic Projections about one point seven percent, because that's 42 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 4: the combination of the people and how productive they are. 43 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 4: Point three percent increase in people one air percent increase 44 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 4: in productivity. If we grow one percent, a company will say, hmm, 45 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 4: I can I can handle about an increase of about 46 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 4: two percent in a demand for goods and services. It's 47 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 4: only one should I slow hiring and spending. That depends 48 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 4: on the sentiment that exists at that time. They could 49 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 4: either say yes, I'm going to cut back, I'm really nervous, 50 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 4: or it's short term, don't worry about and keep the 51 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 4: game going. 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 2: Tony Casi there, he said in the conversation. The seven 53 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:06,079 Speaker 2: year is about out to what the FED can adjust, 54 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 2: can amend, can change. He also said that the five 55 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 2: year elasticity, the dynamics of the five year yield is 56 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 2: probably more informative than the ten year of the media, 57 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 2: including me, we spend time focused on that ten year maturity. 58 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 2: Tony Cscenzi brings it into five and seven years. We 59 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,239 Speaker 2: are on podcasts at Apple Podcasts, Spotify as well many 60 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: others on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea