1
00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:16,360
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

3
00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,840
Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with

4
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,360
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get

5
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,480
Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,600
Speaker 3: Let's talk a little economically. Let's set the plate. Let's

7
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,560
Speaker 3: set the scene for the week ahead. Kathy Bost John

8
00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 3: Chick joins a She's a chief economist at Nationwide. Kathy,

9
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us here, layout for us.

10
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 3: Kind of your view of this US economy here, I've

11
00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,559
Speaker 3: got a Federal Reserve that's cutting rates. I'm not sure

12
00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,120
Speaker 3: how aggressive they're going to be. I got some pretty

13
00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 3: decent retail sales last week, so I think the consumer

14
00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,199
Speaker 3: is a good place. I think the consumers got a

15
00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,440
Speaker 3: job if he or she wants one. What's your view

16
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:55,680
Speaker 3: of this US economy right here?

17
00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,200
Speaker 4: Good morning, Paul. Well, the economy is quite resilient. That's

18
00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,680
Speaker 4: what you're seeing in the consumer spending data and and

19
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 4: and the labor market data and and it's I think

20
00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:12,800
Speaker 4: it's surprising, surprising to the Fed Reserve, surprising to many investors. Uh,

21
00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,960
Speaker 4: the strength, you know, continued strength. It's it's obviously welcomed.

22
00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,680
Speaker 4: You know, the economic expansion can continue. And I guess

23
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,800
Speaker 4: gives a fit a good problem, uh to try to

24
00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,080
Speaker 4: think about, you know, how quickly they need to continue

25
00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:30,399
Speaker 4: to recalibrate interest rates as they say, inflation was a

26
00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,720
Speaker 4: little bit sticky though, uh, and that that there's a

27
00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,200
Speaker 4: little bit of a wrinkle in the plans. What they

28
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,280
Speaker 4: want to make sure is that, you know, as they're

29
00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:46,040
Speaker 4: recalibrating interest rates lower, they don't stop the disinflationary trend. Uh,

30
00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,720
Speaker 4: in inflation that has been in place. Right, that's the

31
00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:52,600
Speaker 4: reason they can cut rates. We've you know, always arguing

32
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,840
Speaker 4: it's really the pace of employment gains that will dictate,

33
00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,680
Speaker 4: you know, how how fast they can cut rates.

34
00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,720
Speaker 5: Kathy, what about the uncertainty around the so called neutral rate,

35
00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:07,080
Speaker 5: the long run equilibrium interest rate are star? What's your

36
00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,960
Speaker 5: sense of sort of what the Fed's thinking on that is,

37
00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:12,520
Speaker 5: is they as they undertake this recalibration as you call it.

38
00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 4: Great question, because that you know is the guiding star,

39
00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 4: that's the north star. And the problem is, you know,

40
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,160
Speaker 4: as you know, the New York Fed President John Williams

41
00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,640
Speaker 4: has said many times and he's the foremost expert in

42
00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,520
Speaker 4: the area. As you get closer than the star gets

43
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:31,800
Speaker 4: a bit fuzzier, so you don't really know is it

44
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,440
Speaker 4: two seventy five two point eight, is it three and

45
00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,360
Speaker 4: a quarter on the FED funds rate or is it

46
00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,880
Speaker 4: three and abcent. It's unsure at this point, so they're

47
00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,880
Speaker 4: going to use the data as guidance to tell them,

48
00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,880
Speaker 4: you know, how close you're getting to neutral. But I

49
00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,920
Speaker 4: think there's another there's a long run neutral, and then

50
00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,840
Speaker 4: there's a current neutral and based on current economic data,

51
00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,079
Speaker 4: you know, that's where the debate I think is ensuring.

52
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:01,239
Speaker 4: You know, there's some signs really that monetary policy is

53
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,520
Speaker 4: very restrictive with the housing market. Look at the auto sector,

54
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:10,440
Speaker 4: they're really being weighed down by high interest rates. Middle

55
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 4: income households, low income households are struggling under the weight

56
00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,360
Speaker 4: of high utriss rates. But on the other hand, retail

57
00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,679
Speaker 4: sales continue to show a consumer that is going to

58
00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,440
Speaker 4: carry economic growth, not just you know, capping off a

59
00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,440
Speaker 4: strong third quarter, but momentum into the fourth quarter. So

60
00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,440
Speaker 4: that really is the debate for the Fed. We think

61
00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,359
Speaker 4: they'll continue to cut interest rates. We still have in

62
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,240
Speaker 4: our baseline and a twenty five base point rate cut

63
00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 4: in November. We have another one in December, but both

64
00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,200
Speaker 4: of those odds, you know, have diminished. There is more doubt,

65
00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,160
Speaker 4: I think among FED officials do do we really need

66
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,000
Speaker 4: to keep cutting rates, especially since they cut rates fifty

67
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:50,840
Speaker 4: basis points in September?

68
00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,520
Speaker 3: Kathy, how about the labor market here? We got a

69
00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 3: you know, top line unemployment rate four point one percent

70
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,600
Speaker 3: or so. That seems pretty darn solid to me, but

71
00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 3: some folks tell us some of the recent trends has

72
00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 3: been a little troubling. How should we think about this

73
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:06,680
Speaker 3: US labor economy?

74
00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,560
Speaker 4: It is an interesting picture. So on one hand, there's

75
00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:16,640
Speaker 4: still pretty good demand overall for workers, and the unemployment

76
00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,560
Speaker 4: rate reflects that very low four point one percent. On

77
00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 4: the other hand, where you look at the jobs that

78
00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:26,719
Speaker 4: are created from the Establishment survey, they're very concentrated in

79
00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:33,880
Speaker 4: health and education and also leisure and hospitality. Now that's

80
00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,840
Speaker 4: not unusual for economic cycles. You could continue to see

81
00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,800
Speaker 4: the economy do well with this high concentration, but it

82
00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,760
Speaker 4: also tells you again it's a sign that high interest

83
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,800
Speaker 4: rates are hurting the cyclical sectors of the economy. So

84
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 4: you'd much have much rather have a broad based employee games.

85
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,240
Speaker 4: Right now, it's really highly concentrated.

86
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,040
Speaker 5: You talked just a moment ago, Kathy, just about following

87
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,320
Speaker 5: the data. How much of this is data driven? We

88
00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,240
Speaker 5: have a cacophony of fedspeak this week today, four of

89
00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,520
Speaker 5: them as I count them, Mary Daily speaking, Lori Logan

90
00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,359
Speaker 5: of the Dallas Fed, Neil Kashgari, Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas City.

91
00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,799
Speaker 5: What are you listening for in all of those speeches? Again,

92
00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,599
Speaker 5: it seems like there's such monumental uncertainty just a couple

93
00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:16,599
Speaker 5: of weeks away, fifteen days away till this election, we

94
00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:18,080
Speaker 5: might not have a result by the time the FED

95
00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 5: meets Once again, how valuable are the insights from these

96
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,880
Speaker 5: FED officials, just bearing in mind that uncertainty that looms

97
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:24,480
Speaker 5: so large.

98
00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:31,400
Speaker 4: I think it's very valuable because they are that's the

99
00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,000
Speaker 4: fuller guidance, right, and that's one of the tools that

100
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,599
Speaker 4: they can offer the markets, is this verbal guidance.

101
00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:38,440
Speaker 6: You know, there's six.

102
00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,320
Speaker 4: Weeks in between meetings, so this is our time to

103
00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,320
Speaker 4: give you know, their thoughts. On the other hand, they're

104
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,839
Speaker 4: all individuals, so you're not getting a consensus view, but

105
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:52,479
Speaker 4: you can pick up Where are the doubts increasing, Like,

106
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,200
Speaker 4: are they leaning forwards saying you know what, we know

107
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,919
Speaker 4: economic data have come in stronger, but we're still really

108
00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,799
Speaker 4: restrictive and I think we can continue to lower rates

109
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,040
Speaker 4: and we have room.

110
00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:03,280
Speaker 6: To do that.

111
00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,000
Speaker 4: Or is there some concern that maybe, hey, maybe we

112
00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,000
Speaker 4: need to go a little slower, even slower than the

113
00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,719
Speaker 4: markets thing because we don't want to revive inflation.

114
00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,799
Speaker 3: Kathy, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting

115
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,600
Speaker 3: a few minutes of your time. Kathy Bastoncik. She is

116
00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:25,200
Speaker 3: the chief economist at Nationwide.

117
00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:30,039
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

118
00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on

119
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,

120
00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:38,599
Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.

121
00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,760
Speaker 3: My question simply is do we trust any of the

122
00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,040
Speaker 3: polls here? I can't, you know, I don't know. Sometimes

123
00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,200
Speaker 3: they tell us the last election they were pretty accurate

124
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,080
Speaker 3: as it relates to the popular vote, but I don't know.

125
00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,159
Speaker 3: I just think back to all the other elections. I

126
00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,159
Speaker 3: think about Brexit, how bad they were on that one.

127
00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,840
Speaker 3: Henrietta Tres she does this kind of stuff for a

128
00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 3: Living Change the manager partner in Vada Partners, Henrietta, Are

129
00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,559
Speaker 3: there any polls that you look at that you feel

130
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 3: like are maybe more representative and than others and kind

131
00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:07,719
Speaker 3: of what are they telling you these days?

132
00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:10,080
Speaker 6: Great question, Thanks.

133
00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,280
Speaker 7: I actually really enjoy the fact that we are in

134
00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,360
Speaker 7: the early voting process already, so now we can start

135
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 7: to move or at least add on to our data

136
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,240
Speaker 7: sets by incorporating the early voting data as opposed to

137
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 7: just the polling. So that's informative and helpful. It's not

138
00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,000
Speaker 7: for the faint of heart. It is worse than day trading.

139
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 7: You get these huge baskets of data that swing the

140
00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,800
Speaker 7: vote totals by these massive margins every single night.

141
00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,560
Speaker 6: But nonetheless, if you're really digging into.

142
00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,200
Speaker 7: The weeds, you can start to watch early polling data,

143
00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 7: which is very exciting and right now. Effectively, what I

144
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,920
Speaker 7: would say is pay attention to the really great poles

145
00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,120
Speaker 7: that are done by you know, tried and tested pollsters.

146
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,240
Speaker 7: So the New York Times swing state poles are particularly valuable,

147
00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,680
Speaker 7: and then all the Bloomberg Morning Console pole, which is

148
00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,120
Speaker 7: more frequent, is very valuable.

149
00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:58,120
Speaker 6: Stick to the big ones.

150
00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,840
Speaker 7: There is a flood of poll right now that is

151
00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,080
Speaker 7: coming from the campaigns themselves, and those tend to have

152
00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,800
Speaker 7: pretty stark biases three or four points in favor of.

153
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,800
Speaker 6: Whichever candidate right now.

154
00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,680
Speaker 7: A number of those like Atlas, Rescues and Trafalgar are

155
00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,760
Speaker 7: coming from Republican outlets, So you're going to see a

156
00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:15,720
Speaker 7: republic event, which is what the pools are showing you

157
00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:16,120
Speaker 7: right now.

158
00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 5: Well, speaking of bias, the audience knows I bring my

159
00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,440
Speaker 5: North Carolina bias to the show when I fill in.

160
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 5: And here's a number that stood out to me. One million,

161
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 5: eighty one hundred and twenty three. That's the number of

162
00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,360
Speaker 5: early votes we've seen cast in just four days, and

163
00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,200
Speaker 5: this is a state of about ten point five million.

164
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:30,600
Speaker 3: People.

165
00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,640
Speaker 5: Talk a bit about early voting and if this seems

166
00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,439
Speaker 5: like an outsize level of enthusiasm so far, sort of

167
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,079
Speaker 5: what we know just a few days in for how

168
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,439
Speaker 5: many people are voting early, and what that says perhaps

169
00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 5: about the trajector here going to election day on the fifth.

170
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,400
Speaker 7: It's really exciting, and congratulations on having North Carolina on

171
00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,000
Speaker 7: your radar. And I'm sure you have friends and family

172
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,440
Speaker 7: that are in the area that you're getting feedback from

173
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:53,959
Speaker 7: in real time.

174
00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:54,960
Speaker 6: And anecdotal stuff.

175
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,120
Speaker 7: North Carolina and Georgia are breaking records for turnout. I

176
00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,760
Speaker 7: would say probably the main takeaway for me now is

177
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,640
Speaker 7: that Republican voters are voting early in much greater frequency

178
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,520
Speaker 7: than they have in the past, and about double the

179
00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 7: rate of Democrats. So that's the case in Nevada, for example,

180
00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,160
Speaker 7: which I was just spending some time with this morning,

181
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:18,080
Speaker 7: and effectively what's happening is Republican voters have been very

182
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:19,920
Speaker 7: exposed to this idea of an.

183
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,480
Speaker 6: Election that may be stolen and what have you.

184
00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:27,760
Speaker 7: The Republican governors in those states and Republican operatives like

185
00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 7: North Carolina and Georgia in Nevada have been spending millions

186
00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 7: of dollars trying to encourage their voters to come to

187
00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 7: the polls early, and that is.

188
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:35,320
Speaker 6: Really panning out.

189
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,520
Speaker 7: So you're seeing these substantial increases in Republican voters who

190
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,720
Speaker 7: usually vote on election day coming to vote early, and

191
00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,120
Speaker 7: that's I think a main driver of that record turnout number.

192
00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,520
Speaker 3: Henry Henrietta, what do we know about I guess the

193
00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,800
Speaker 3: down ballot situation for some of these key states, key seats.

194
00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 3: What are we hearing and how do you expect that

195
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:55,800
Speaker 3: to play.

196
00:09:55,600 --> 00:10:01,959
Speaker 7: Out down ballot's really still moving very substantially for the

197
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,560
Speaker 7: entire year. As we've discussed in the past, Democratic candidates

198
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 7: in the Senate seats like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin,

199
00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,760
Speaker 7: et cetera, they've all been leading the top of the

200
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,680
Speaker 7: Democratic ticket, whether that's Kamala Harris or Joe Biden. Throughout

201
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,840
Speaker 7: the year, they've been pulling ahead five, six, ten points.

202
00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,240
Speaker 7: As the final voters decide which direction they're going to go,

203
00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,720
Speaker 7: the delta between Democratic senators and Republican Senate candidates has

204
00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 7: dropped substantially, and now voters are going to the direction

205
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,240
Speaker 7: that they have since twenty sixteen, which is they're going

206
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,120
Speaker 7: to vote party line down the ballot. So what we're

207
00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:42,120
Speaker 7: starting to see is material tightness for the Democratic candidates

208
00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,560
Speaker 7: in Pennsylvania. We're starting to see that tighten up in

209
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:49,080
Speaker 7: a state like Arizona and Nevada where the Democrat is

210
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:53,280
Speaker 7: still comfortably ahead, but the Republican under or challenger is

211
00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,200
Speaker 7: starting to move a little bit further up in the

212
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,520
Speaker 7: polls as voters decide which direction they're going to go.

213
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:00,600
Speaker 7: At the top of the ticket, Kamala Harris Donald Trump.

214
00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,240
Speaker 7: So we're seeing that the races are really tight. My expectation,

215
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,160
Speaker 7: with ninety percent odds is that Republicans are going to

216
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,320
Speaker 7: control the Senate next year, and that's mostly a virtue

217
00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:13,240
Speaker 7: and a factor of Montana. In Montana, Donald Trump is

218
00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,360
Speaker 7: on track to win by twenty one points, and that's

219
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:20,280
Speaker 7: a bridge too far for any Democratic incumbent to supersed

220
00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 7: Usually a down ballot senator can outrun the top of

221
00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,280
Speaker 7: the ticket by about four or five points. But for

222
00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:32,040
Speaker 7: John Tester, the Senator from Montana, he's underwater now already

223
00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 7: against his Republican challenger, and then he's underwater by about

224
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,920
Speaker 7: fifteen to seventeen points against Donald Trump at the Republican

225
00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,959
Speaker 7: top of the ticket versus the Democratic ticket. So my expectation,

226
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,040
Speaker 7: almost regardless of how the swing states go, is that

227
00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:47,800
Speaker 7: Republicans will control the Senate next year.

228
00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:50,920
Speaker 5: Henria, let's talk a bit about Elon Musk. He spent

229
00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:55,280
Speaker 5: his college days in Pennsylvania. He's back in the state

230
00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,120
Speaker 5: spending a lot of money, and the thing that's getting

231
00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,600
Speaker 5: a lot of attention this morning is his that's almost

232
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:04,280
Speaker 5: like a sweepstakes. If you sign his pledge here to

233
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,079
Speaker 5: support the First Amendment and the Second Amendment. You're in

234
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,160
Speaker 5: the running to win a million dollars a day. My

235
00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,760
Speaker 5: eyebrow is raised as a result of seeing that, wondering

236
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,839
Speaker 5: if that's legal. I gather there's some interest on the

237
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,000
Speaker 5: Democratic side and getting law enforcement to look into what

238
00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:19,040
Speaker 5: he's pledging to do.

239
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:19,320
Speaker 3: There.

240
00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,920
Speaker 5: Talk a bit about that scheme, if you would, what

241
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 5: you make of it, but then more broadly, sort of

242
00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,199
Speaker 5: how he's changing or trying to change the ground game

243
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:27,199
Speaker 5: in Pennsylvania.

244
00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, a couple of really good points here.

245
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,120
Speaker 7: First, it's illegal to buy votes, and so what Elon

246
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,960
Speaker 7: Musk is doing is he's buying signatures. He's trying to

247
00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,080
Speaker 7: get you to sign up to support the First and

248
00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:38,680
Speaker 7: second Amendment.

249
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:40,079
Speaker 6: He's also trying to get you to sign up to

250
00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:41,000
Speaker 6: register to vote.

251
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,760
Speaker 7: That is a technicality that is different than actually buying

252
00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,400
Speaker 7: your vote on election day, So he's circumventing that part

253
00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:49,120
Speaker 7: of election law.

254
00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:51,360
Speaker 6: Democrats are of course screaming.

255
00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,800
Speaker 7: About it because it's designed with a monetary value behind

256
00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,640
Speaker 7: it and it's about voting, so they're trying to get

257
00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,800
Speaker 7: the Elections Commission involved. But that is the way that

258
00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,600
Speaker 7: he asides stepping that issue. I think you're seeing as

259
00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:07,240
Speaker 7: a general strategy from the Republican camp from Donald Trump

260
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 7: is to farm out a lot of the campaign to

261
00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:14,520
Speaker 7: third parties. So whether that's trying to have a third

262
00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,280
Speaker 7: party boots on the ground program that will get you

263
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,440
Speaker 7: volunteers and door knockers in an individual state, or in

264
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,160
Speaker 7: the case of Elon Musk here with trying to buy

265
00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:28,040
Speaker 7: signatures to get registered to vote, or in the case

266
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,040
Speaker 7: of even the predictive markets you've seen that on poly Market,

267
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,600
Speaker 7: for example, with this sharp uptick from an estimated four

268
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,920
Speaker 7: accounts driving the odds up to sixty one percent as

269
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,319
Speaker 7: of this morning that Trump will win. This is all

270
00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:44,840
Speaker 7: sort of third party designed to influence voter perception in

271
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,360
Speaker 7: the final days of the campaign, and you still have

272
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 7: about twenty four percent of the individual voter base who's

273
00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 7: undecided about which direction they want to go. What they're

274
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,720
Speaker 7: trying to do is influence the idea of where momentum

275
00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,240
Speaker 7: is because voters like to vote for the winner. Trying

276
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,440
Speaker 7: to give this projection in this image of winning, and

277
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,520
Speaker 7: I think that's a big part of what the Elon

278
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,120
Speaker 7: Musk campaign is all about.

279
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 3: So Elon Musk for former President Trump, maybe a mark

280
00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,800
Speaker 3: Cuban for Vice President Harris to these types of celebrity

281
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,560
Speaker 3: supporters that they mean anything at the end of the day.

282
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 7: I think what Republicans are trying to do specifically is

283
00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:26,920
Speaker 7: turn out very keyed in media, attentive audiences and the

284
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,040
Speaker 7: young male demographics. So for this cohort, it very much

285
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 7: could take hold that unfortunately has yet to be proven.

286
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 7: I mentioned earlier that a lot of the voters who

287
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,120
Speaker 7: are coming out for the Republican Party right now used

288
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,000
Speaker 7: to vote on election day, and now they're voting early.

289
00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,120
Speaker 7: What's happening is you're actually not seeing new voter turnout.

290
00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,880
Speaker 7: You're cannibalizing your election day vote. So there's a big

291
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,960
Speaker 7: to do about a blue wall going into election day

292
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,520
Speaker 7: that's overwhelmed by a red wave on election Day.

293
00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,080
Speaker 6: That was the trajectory we saw in twenty twenty.

294
00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 7: Donald Trump has talked a lot about that in the past,

295
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,560
Speaker 7: sort of thisocratic blue firewall. What Republicans are trying to

296
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,160
Speaker 7: do with this media strategy and this outreach to young,

297
00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,720
Speaker 7: very online mail voters is get them to come out

298
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 7: and vote for Donald Trump. What we're seeing so far

299
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 7: is that very enthusiastic repeat Republican voters.

300
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,360
Speaker 6: Trump supporters are very galvanized this year.

301
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 7: They're extraordinarily enthusiastic about voting for Trump, and they're.

302
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 6: Turning out early.

303
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 7: So it's not that we're seeing a new influx of

304
00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,600
Speaker 7: voters thus far. There has been strong voter registration from

305
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,040
Speaker 7: Republicans in the last four years, but that's not what

306
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 7: we're seeing in the early returns thus far. Again, as

307
00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 7: I said in the beginning, this data swings a lot,

308
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,360
Speaker 7: but right now it's all election day voters that are

309
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 7: pulling forward, not new voters coming into the Republican poult.

310
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 3: All right, Henrietta Trez nobody better.

311
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 5: Always great to speak with you.

312
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,320
Speaker 3: Always good on that one, Henrietta Trice, Thank you so

313
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 3: much again for your time. Henrietta is a managing partner

314
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 3: at Veda Partners. Given us the latest breakdown of a

315
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,520
Speaker 3: fluid situation, again fifteen days away from election day.

316
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

317
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 2: starting its an am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

318
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,560
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

319
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

320
00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

321
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,000
Speaker 3: I'm sandwich between two Carolina people. David Gerr, who grew

322
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 3: up at North Carolina Chapel Hill and at Chapel Hill,

323
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 3: she's also the chief market strategist at Ridolt's Wealth Management. So, Kelly,

324
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I've got a stock market. I'm not jumping

325
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 3: off yet. I mean should I be jumping off here?

326
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 3: I'm sticking with it.

327
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 8: Well, the economy looks okay, so I don't think you

328
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,800
Speaker 8: should be jumping off and better yet, expectations are so

329
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 8: low that I think it could lead to more of

330
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:40,120
Speaker 8: a rally in the future. Of course, everybody's nervous about election,

331
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 8: the election coming up, and you know we're seeing some

332
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 8: premium in the Vics and in the ten year because

333
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 8: of that. But at the same time, I mean, what

334
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,160
Speaker 8: post election rallies are quite typical. We're heading into an

335
00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 8: earning season where you know, estimates have been cut way

336
00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 8: too much, and up until a few weeks ago, everybody

337
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 8: thought we were heading for a recession, and it turns

338
00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 8: out maybe we're not. So it's all about.

339
00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 3: Expectations early days.

340
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,280
Speaker 5: Yet in this earning season, I GUS one hundred and

341
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,120
Speaker 5: thirteen companies reporting this week what have you been able

342
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 5: to divine from what we've gotten thus far from the

343
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:10,800
Speaker 5: financials and others, and sort of what are you looking

344
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,199
Speaker 5: for as we get kind of more fully underway in

345
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 5: the reporting period.

346
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:18,040
Speaker 8: Well, obviously, earning estimates are way too low on the

347
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 8: revenue side, on the earning side as well. That's why

348
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,840
Speaker 8: you're seeing about an eighty percent beat rate and why

349
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 8: you're seeing stocks react really well when you know companies

350
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:30,359
Speaker 8: come out with these, you know, not impressive results, but

351
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 8: at least they kind of hurdle the low bar. I

352
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 8: really like the management commentary that we've heard so far.

353
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 8: I feel encouraged by the bank commentary around the economy,

354
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,560
Speaker 8: around the consumer that we've heard. You know, I'm more macro,

355
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,439
Speaker 8: so I don't look as much at individual companies, But

356
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 8: so far, so good. I mean, that beat rate is strong.

357
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,880
Speaker 3: Valuation. What are the concerns, if any here for you

358
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,399
Speaker 3: for valuation for this market?

359
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,879
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I think valuation is a distraction for people.

360
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,960
Speaker 8: So obviously the S and P valuation is quite high,

361
00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 8: but when you take out tech, the smp sits around

362
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,760
Speaker 8: like a nineteen forward pe and that's actually quite low.

363
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:06,359
Speaker 8: I mean, if you think about the average for that

364
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,200
Speaker 8: is around seventeen historically. So what I'm trying to say

365
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 8: is that there are a lot of opportunities in this

366
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 8: market if you're willing to look for them. Valuation isn't

367
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 8: a concern for most stocks. You just have that influence

368
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 8: from big tech just kind of clouding the valuation picture

369
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 8: that you're seeing for the overall SMP.

370
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 5: So if I'm looking for them, where would you guide

371
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 5: me or where would you recommend that I go? Maybe

372
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 5: kind of unloved places that might be overlooked.

373
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 8: Well, we've been talking about the S and P. I'm

374
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 8: going to look outside the SMP now, I think you

375
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,680
Speaker 8: have to look at small and mid caps, especially if

376
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 8: we think the economy can survive these high interest rates.

377
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 8: I mean, small caps were a rate story, but they

378
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 8: need a strong or even an okay economy to really

379
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 8: thrive in this environment. I mean, normally we see small

380
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 8: caps outperform in the first legs of able market. We

381
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 8: haven't seen it this time around. It's because the FED

382
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 8: has been restricting the bowl, you know, kind of depriving

383
00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 8: it of oxygen through higher interest rates. So small apps, midcaps,

384
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 8: I think great sensitive sectors are dealing with the same

385
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 8: fate right now. You know, I think cyclicals look interesting,

386
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 8: but I'm not as excited to jump into them because

387
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 8: we've only seen one month of relatively okay jobs data sectors.

388
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 3: Are there sectors that screen well for you guys these days?

389
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 8: Well, we like looking at value over at rid hoolets.

390
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,400
Speaker 8: I mean you have to remember long term clients, trying

391
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 8: to get them from point A to point B. I

392
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 8: think value in general is really interesting right now. I

393
00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 8: think we see some value in real estate and consumer

394
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 8: staples again in those rate sensitive sectors. See a lot

395
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 8: of value in small caps. Like I mentioned to David,

396
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 8: I mean overall, just look at the unloved sectors in

397
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 8: this bowl market. What hasn't performed well? Rotate there.

398
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 5: I'm very cleo asking everybody about this, just sort of

399
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 5: how the role of the FED is sort of dovetailing

400
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,199
Speaker 5: with what you're doing. And so it just strikes me

401
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:50,679
Speaker 5: as you kind of look ahead to the election and

402
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 5: beyond this kind of monumental uncertainty, how do you see

403
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 5: around that? How does the FED see around that?

404
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 2: Again?

405
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 5: I bring this up over and over again today. It's

406
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 5: like how many FED speakers or speaking I remember we

407
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 5: heard from Austin Golesby a couple of weeks ago, saying

408
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 5: he loves, he loves getting all those perspectives. He thinks

409
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 5: it's valuable. How are you able to sort of divine

410
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 5: any sort of sense of direction from from what all

411
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 5: these folks are saying and what is it telling you

412
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:14,400
Speaker 5: if you are able to.

413
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 8: Well, our clients are lucky they have me. I'm the

414
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 8: one that's stressed.

415
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: About over the lie.

416
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 5: You have to figure it out.

417
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 8: Trying to put all the tea leaves together, but ultimately

418
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 8: reminding people that these headlines these FED speakers don't probably

419
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 8: won't push you off of your financial goals. Of course,

420
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 8: the FED and what the FED does is important, but

421
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 8: what you're hearing from Goalsby and no offense to Golesby,

422
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 8: I love Goalsby, but what you're hearing from these FED

423
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 8: speakers ultimately is noise.

424
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 2: You know.

425
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 8: Of course FED policy is important, but right now it

426
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 8: looks like the Fed is cutting grapes gradually. I think

427
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 8: they have an argument to cut to neutral at the moment,

428
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 8: especially if we see job market data, you know, kind

429
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 8: of addling along like we've seen for the past few

430
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 8: months outside of September, and you know, a gradual cutting

431
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 8: is a really good background for the stock market, but

432
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 8: it also means that you probably need to lock in

433
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 8: rates and prepare for a potential crisis, you know, take

434
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 8: advantage of where we are now.

435
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 3: Cally, I know you mentioned rid Holts Wealth Management. You

436
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 3: guys think longer term. We've certainly heard that from red

437
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 3: Holts himself. How do you guys think about stocks versus bonds,

438
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 3: maybe even alternatives for a typical Redolts Wealth Management client?

439
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 8: Well, I mean we offer I think six or seven

440
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 8: different portfolios, different stock and bond allocations. That ultimately matters

441
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 8: most for the client in their personal situation. Again, right now,

442
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 8: with bonds, we're telling clients to think about locking in rates.

443
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 8: We don't think they'll stay here for very long on

444
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 8: the stock market. I mean we obviously we think you

445
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 8: need to be invested in risk of your assets to

446
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 8: reach certain financial goals. And you know, depending on where

447
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 8: you are, if you're an accumulator, if you're you know,

448
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 8: pulling more income from your portfolio, that's going to change

449
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 8: the allocation you're looking at. But right now, we still

450
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 8: think the stock market is quite attractive. We always remind

451
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 8: people it's expensive to miss a bowl more so, you know,

452
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 8: the risk of sitting out most of the time is

453
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 8: bigger than the risk of potentially buying at a top.

454
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 8: You know, just make sure that you have that cushion

455
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,160
Speaker 8: in your portfolio, because we all have emotions, we're all human,

456
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 8: you know, we need a little bit of that protection

457
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 8: if we do see a bigger sell off.

458
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 5: Could you give us some insight into those conversations, because,

459
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 5: as you say, it's costly to miss out, but you

460
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 5: look at how much money is sitting on the sidelines.

461
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 5: You're trillions of dollars on the sidelines, and so much

462
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 5: in money market funds, so much in bonds. How do

463
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 5: you compel people or what are the conversations like as

464
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 5: you're trying to convince people that there is still opportunity

465
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 5: in a moment to get into equities.

466
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 8: Well, there's a lot of talk around big tech. I mean,

467
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 8: that was more of the talk in the first half

468
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 8: of the year. You know, why are so few stocks

469
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 8: driving those market higher? You know, obviously we have an

470
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 8: e toward value. So that was a harder conversation to

471
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 8: have with clients, but ultimately we reminded them that, you know,

472
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 8: over time, there's this area of stasis, and the market

473
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 8: tends to go there. You just have to, you know,

474
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 8: kind of wait it out and be prepared for a

475
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 8: bunch of different scenarios, and that actually worked out really well.

476
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 8: Over the past few months. We're seeing, you know, as

477
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 8: the Fed's cut rates, we're seeing more money of course

478
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 8: go to those value oriented stocks. But on the whole,

479
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 8: I agree with you, there's still a lot of cash

480
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 8: on the sidelines. I don't think it's a positive catalyst

481
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 8: in the next three to six months. I think there's

482
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 8: a lot of inertia there. But that's something something to consider.

483
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 8: I mean, this bull market has grown on doubt and skepticism,

484
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 8: and believe it or not, that's a healthy environment for

485
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 8: higher prices.

486
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 3: I'm sure your clients are calling up all the time

487
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 3: asking about the election and what they should do. I mean,

488
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 3: what do you try to tell.

489
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 8: Them, Well, politics don't matter if your portfolio okay, bar none.

490
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 8: There are a few caveats there. I think they matter

491
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 8: for your financial situation, especially with the tax cuts and

492
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 8: Jobs Act, certain provisions they're expiring at the end of

493
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 8: twenty twenty five. So that's mostly what we've been talking

494
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 8: to clients about. I mean, you need to plan now

495
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 8: for any changes that could happen in the next you know,

496
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 8: several months. But on the whole, we we remind our

497
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 8: clients who are more long term that, you know, it's

498
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 8: one person can't control the fifty seven trillion dollar stock market,

499
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 8: maybe j Powell, but you know, I'm not even gonna

500
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 8: go there for him. You know, trying to buy or

501
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 8: sell stocks depending on who's taking office is usually a fool's.

502
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 5: Errand can we get a little anecdotal sense from you,

503
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 5: You a North Carolinian like myself for like what this election,

504
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 5: what this part of the campaign cycle has been, Like,

505
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 5: how inundated are you just as a citizen of that state?

506
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 5: And what's the what is the electoral atmosphere?

507
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 7: Like?

508
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 8: Even better, I'm a resident of Mecklenburg County, which is

509
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 8: one of the most important counties in North Carolina. I

510
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 8: mean there's a lot of noise, a lot of signs.

511
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 8: I mean obviously a lot of conversation I can't really

512
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 8: get into. You know, I'm not a polster right now,

513
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 8: I'm watching the polls nervously like everybody else, But just

514
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 8: know that people are paying attention, and I think that

515
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 8: there's a lot of energy around both sides.

516
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: Kelly, thanks so much for joining us. Always great to

517
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 3: see you. Calli Cox's chief market strategist for Ritholtz Wealth Management.

518
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

519
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

520
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

521
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

522
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.

523
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 3: All right, folks, you dentely look at the front pages

524
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 3: around the world. Lisa mitteo newspapers. What do you got

525
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 3: for us today?

526
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: All right, we're just talking about elections. So I want

527
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: to get to this reality for the election workers.

528
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 3: What they're living in.

529
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: This is Arizona, Macopa County. It's one of the most

530
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: populous counties in Arizona. They're reporting that some of the

531
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: workers you have buildings that are been added, metal detectors,

532
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: arm guards, but there's also police, snipers, drone patrols will

533
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: be on hand. This is for election day. Election workers

534
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: going through active shooter drills. So this is like a

535
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 1: whole new reality. A lot of these workers are living

536
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,479
Speaker 1: through a lot of them volunteers too. On top of it,

537
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: so a lot of them are saying, some are scared

538
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 1: to come in. But why this area of Arizona, Well,

539
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: you know, it's sparked by years Donald Trump's false claims

540
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty election was stolen, so he has told his

541
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: supporters it could happen again. So now you have this

542
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: whole entire security going on now in order to protect

543
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,199
Speaker 1: a lot of these workers.

544
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 3: It's it's it's a new reality. In Colorado. Death threats

545
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: from election deniers have led some county clerks and election

546
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 3: officials to bulletproof bulletproof vests on hand, so you get that.

547
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's not just Arizona, it's like it's nationwide.

548
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: I mean, they're stockpiling narcan because if you remember, they

549
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: received ballad En bulps last year that has the white

550
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: powder with the traces of fental in it. So just

551
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: a big like overall look at the security, think.

552
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 5: About like will will this continue? Obviously we saw what

553
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 5: happened last time and that's what it's informed this time.

554
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 5: But as you mentioned, so many people doing this on

555
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 5: a voluntary basis or taking these jobs apart time. One

556
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 5: wonders if the hassle of doing this and the fears

557
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 5: associated with doing it are going to keep people from

558
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 5: signing up in the field.

559
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 3: The hanging chad seems so quaint. Now no, yes, well

560
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 3: you got it, okay.

561
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 1: So Business I spoke at labor experts. They're looking to see,

562
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: because it's this whole battle back and forth, is the

563
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: college degree still a top priority for employers. So Business

564
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: Insider they spoke with a couple and they say the

565
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: employers they might no longer require a degree for certain roles,

566
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: but those doing the hiring still care whether an applicant

567
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 1: has one. So there's been different types of research that

568
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: has been done. Some consulting firms say that it shows

569
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 1: hiring for skills is five times more predictive of how

570
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 1: someone performs on a job than hiring based on just education.

571
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 1: But they also say that those hired based on their

572
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 1: skills rather than education, tend to stay with an employer longer.

573
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,239
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's that whole thing of just

574
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: you know, being happy that you've kind of been brought

575
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: onto this company because you don't have the degree. But

576
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: those are just some of the things that they're saying.

577
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: Whether this degree is still told just before I drive

578
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: them up and down the Jersey Shore.

579
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: Forget about the big monster houses on the beach. That's

580
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 3: all the Wall Street folks that tech whoever those people are.

581
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 3: How about everybody on the Bay side there are two

582
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 3: million dollar homes. There's tens of thousands of them just

583
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 3: on the Jersey Shore. Forget about the rest of the world.

584
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 3: And the each have a like five hundred thousand dollars

585
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 3: boat moored in the back. Who are those people? Where

586
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 3: did they come from? And what I think they are

587
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 3: is as I drive around, I think you're just small

588
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: business owners and they just created this wealth and that's it.

589
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 3: I mean. And there's jillions of them out there, and

590
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: that's I think a lot of them are going to be,

591
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 3: you know, coming generations from from the trades. Yeah, and

592
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 3: they don't have any college debt or any of that

593
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 3: kind of stuff. You just wonder where all that wealth

594
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 3: comes from. And it's just small business, I think in

595
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 3: this country.

596
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: And then we just had that story not too long

597
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: ago that a lot of private equity pouring money into

598
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: the trades, like buying out a lot of these hvac

599
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: and plumbers and all that who are now becoming millionaire.

600
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: So there you go, all right, this is this next

601
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 3: article is not what I was expecting. Yeah, okay, sandwich generation.

602
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: Sandwich generation.

603
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 3: I hadn't heard that term before, so maybe I'm out

604
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: of low. I don't know. But those are stuff.

605
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: Between caring for the old, their older parents, and they

606
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: have younger kids. And I'm talking younger because a lot

607
00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: of these who this is these are millennials who are

608
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: now reached that midlife who had kids later in life,

609
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: you know, so now they have newborns, but yet they

610
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: have parents who are eighty plus.

611
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: They need care, need care.

612
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: So now it's this whole struggle of can they afford

613
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: one daycare and then two, you know, to pay for

614
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: these aging parents who may not have prepared for staying

615
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: alive this much longer, and elder care is.

616
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: So so expensive.

617
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, eleven million people in this boat in this country,

618
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 5: which is you know, a sizeable chunk, right, that's crazy.

619
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:29,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is.

620
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: And then it's taking away from their retirement because they're

621
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: putting all their money into you know, the daycare and

622
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: the elder.

623
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: Care, right. And then and some of them have to

624
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 3: leave the workforce because they have to take care of

625
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 3: both parts of this sandwich, if you will.

626
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: And they're saying that's it. That's a problem because most

627
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: of those people are women. They're saying, that's a massive,

628
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: massive risk for the economy if a lot of women

629
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: start to And.

630
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 5: Staffing is still a huge issue too, just because you

631
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 5: can't get people to do this kind of work. So

632
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 5: I think a lot of people are doing it by default.

633
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 5: You know, they want to get care for their aging

634
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 5: parents and they can't do just thrown a people doing

635
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 5: those doing those jobs.

636
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: That's true, that's true. Now, I know you're happy about

637
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: the New York Clery right basking in their title. Yeah,

638
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: the sweatshirt on Friday, Okay, but the league actually said

639
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: to lose millions this season. Investors are growing and patient.

640
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: This was in the New York Post, it was exclusive

641
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: with them. They're saying the NBA, I didn't realize this,

642
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: owns nearly sixty percent of the WNBA. So sources are

643
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: telling the Post that NBA team owners they've invested hundreds

644
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: of millions of dollars in the WNBA since they formed.

645
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: But NBA executives are saying that the WNBA will lose

646
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: forty million dollars. But they're saying that, you know, starting

647
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, they'll get that two point two

648
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: billion over eleven years to part of this new basketball

649
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: media contract.

650
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 3: Right, so they have the new.

651
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: Media deals, but still then they have the contracts are up.

652
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: So now players are going to be starting to get

653
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: paid more as should. But that's another side of it

654
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: to think of. But I didn't realize it was. There

655
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: was so much behind it. It's kind of confusing to me, just.

656
00:30:57,920 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 5: The way that it's structured. Yeah, and there very few

657
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 5: teams I think where they're kind of single owned, but

658
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 5: the liberty are I think that it's owned by one

659
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 5: family now. But it is kind of jarring to kind

660
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 5: of look at the crowds that they were able to

661
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 5: pull for the semifinals in the finals, especially, you know,

662
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 5: filling up not completely but most of the Barkley Center

663
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 5: last night, and the same out the Target Center in Minneapolis.

664
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 5: It looks like there's momentum here, but it's still a

665
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 5: financial challenge for a lot of.

666
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 3: All comes down to the broadcasting right now. So if

667
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 3: I were revising, if I were advising the teams, I

668
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: would not sign a long term deal. I would sign

669
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 3: a short term deal.

670
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: And why is that?

671
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 3: Because their rights are going up in value so dramatically

672
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 3: that why lock yourself into a value today for eleven

673
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 3: years when I think I can come back in three

674
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 3: years of five years and negotiate a much higher rate.

675
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 3: So I would go short term. I think they're making

676
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 3: a mistake to lock in these higher rates, but I

677
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 3: can see the incentive because that's a big jump from

678
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 3: where they are now. But again, as you mentioned, the

679
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: players are going to want to get theirs and they're expanding.

680
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna have three new teams in the

681
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 5: next season as well, and they're going to go prolong.

682
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 5: The finals are gonna do a seven game series next year,

683
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 5: So they're playing this optimistically.

684
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, they're in a great spot. I think again,

685
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 3: the value for most of professional sports is in the

686
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 3: media rights. That's it counts for the vast majority of

687
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 3: the value of these teams. I don't care if you're

688
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 3: English Premier Soccer at the NFL, it's the media rights,

689
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 3: and so you really have to focus on them.

690
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 6: Now.

691
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 3: They're getting a nice big jump here, but I would

692
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 3: I think you've got the leverage to maybe do a

693
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: little bit more. So all right, Lisa Mitello, thank you

694
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 3: so much. That is our newspaper segment back by popular demand.

695
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

696
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

697
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

698
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

699
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

700
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal