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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. It's
Speaker 2: the first of August, and we come to air today
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube with
Speaker 2: Remarkable News. Having spent the better part of this week
Speaker 2: covering the bitter edges of this presidential campaign, we can
Speaker 2: tell you today that Evan Gershkovich is free, so are
Speaker 2: many others as part of the biggest prisoner swap with
Speaker 2: Russia since the Cold War. We're going to be hearing
Speaker 2: from President Biden in just a couple of moments. The
Speaker 2: State dining room is set and the Commander in Chief
Speaker 2: will be announcing something remarkable here that has come together
Speaker 2: over the balance of weeks. As Russia has freed Wall
Speaker 2: Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich as well as jailed Kremlin
Speaker 2: critics in the largest prisoner exchange with the West in decades,
Speaker 2: we have a statement from Jake Sullivan, of course, national
Speaker 2: Security advisor at the White House. Not since the Cold War,
Speaker 2: he says, has there been a similar number of individuals
Speaker 2: exchanged in this way. And there has never, so far
Speaker 2: as we know, been an exchange involving so many countries. Indeed,
Speaker 2: this took place. The swap on the tarmac in Ankara, Turkey,
Speaker 2: included two dozen people. Two dozen people, sixteen going to
Speaker 2: the West, eight being returned to Russia. Among them, as
Speaker 2: I mentioned, Evan Gershkovitch, but also Paul Whalen. Gershkovich was
Speaker 2: arrested in March of last year on a reporting assignment
Speaker 2: in Russia. Paul Whelan, of course, was jailed in twenty eighteen,
Speaker 2: later convicted on spying charges that he denies. I have
Speaker 2: another name for you that you will know if you
Speaker 2: watch this program or listen to Balance of Power. Also Komarshova,
Speaker 2: the journalist with dual Russian and US citizenship, who was
Speaker 2: convicted just last month under the Kremlin's wartime censorship laws,
Speaker 2: is going to be reunited with her family, if she
Speaker 2: has not been already. We brought you a conversation with
Speaker 2: her husband Pavel and her daughter Bibi on this program,
Speaker 2: they will be back together. So as we wait to
Speaker 2: hear from Joe Biden, we want to get a behind
Speaker 2: the scenes view on what just transpired and is still
Speaker 2: happening now with Brett Brewin, the President of the Global
Speaker 2: Situation Room, a former diplomat who brings his national security
Speaker 2: expertise to us here on balance of power, Brett, when
Speaker 2: you consider the scale and the number of countries involved here,
Speaker 2: this is something that must have been on the works
Speaker 2: for some time.
Speaker 3: How do you see it, Well, it's three dimensional diplomacy,
Speaker 3: the most complex kind of diplomacy because obviously you're working
Speaker 3: not only on a bilateral level, trying to figure out
Speaker 3: what Moscow is willing to give and what they want
Speaker 3: in exchange, But then you've got to work these other
Speaker 3: countries as well, and they have shockingly their own interests,
Speaker 3: their own concern and so it isn't an easy effort.
Speaker 3: And hats go off to Biden's team for being able
Speaker 3: to pull this off. That being said, Joe, and I
Speaker 3: know you and I have talked about it before. I
Speaker 3: do have concerns that these kinds of exchanges also incentivize
Speaker 3: Putin and other autocratic rulers to take Americans captive and
Speaker 3: to hold them for these kinds of concessions.
Speaker 2: That is something that I suspect Joe Biden will want
Speaker 2: to speak to Brett a very real concern, as are
Speaker 2: the concerns about some of the people that are going
Speaker 2: back to Russia here, including the dem Krasikhoff, who is
Speaker 2: serving a life's sentence in Germany for the killing in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen of a Chechen separatist in a Berlin park
Speaker 2: where he was shot dead. At what costs are the
Speaker 2: Americans coming home?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: And I think that is precisely the point, because Putin's
Speaker 3: going to be able to use this to great propaganda effect.
Speaker 3: He's going to be able to tell those who are
Speaker 3: fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, as well as
Speaker 3: others in the Russian military intelligence services, that we will,
Speaker 3: no matter what circumstances you fed yourself in, be able
Speaker 3: to bring you home. And that will embold it Russian
Speaker 3: security forces to do even more. And I don't have
Speaker 3: to tell you their bold acts, whether it's in Germany
Speaker 3: or in the United Kingdom or in other parts of
Speaker 3: the world. Africa, as one recent example we've seen with
Speaker 3: Wagner Group have had a very destabilizing, a very dangerous
Speaker 3: effect on countries, and I think it's important when we
Speaker 3: take these acts. And let me be clear, we should
Speaker 3: do everything in our power to bring Americans who are
Speaker 3: unjustly detained overseas home. It's something that I did when
Speaker 3: I was a diplomat serving overseas. But I do feel
Speaker 3: that this ought to be a moment where we reflect
Speaker 3: and we reset, because Putin is not done, and other
Speaker 3: autocratic leaders are watching and saying, I can get the
Speaker 3: US's attention, I can get concessions from the US if
Speaker 3: I take another American journalist captive.
Speaker 2: Now that this group is coming home, Gershkevich Whalen Fromasheva,
Speaker 2: officials are talking about this as one of the few
Speaker 2: remaining areas of diplomatic cooperation between the United States and Russia.
Speaker 2: Do we need to raise the bar?
Speaker 3: Well, Look, it is a bright spot in what otherwise
Speaker 3: is a pretty bleak time. I'm sure US Russian relations,
Speaker 3: and I think it's encouraging the sense that we can
Speaker 3: still have these difficult dialogues and ultimately get to some
Speaker 3: common ground. That being said, I think Putin again can
Speaker 3: leverage it and point to this deal and say the
Speaker 3: West the US is willing to negotiate in Ukraine. Just
Speaker 3: keep fighting, just keep pushing, and we will get a deal,
Speaker 3: because ultimately they will will bend, they will bow to
Speaker 3: the public pressure on these issues. And I think it's
Speaker 3: also important in Joe. If I go back to Britney
Speaker 3: Grinder the WNBA stocks, you know, there was an unprecedented
Speaker 3: level of engagement from the President, the Secretary of State,
Speaker 3: the National Security Advisor that we had never seen in
Speaker 3: US hostage negotiations. And what can discerned me about it
Speaker 3: was that if Putin believes, if some of these other
Speaker 3: autocratic leaders believe they can get the President's attention by
Speaker 3: taking someone who has a high public profile hostage, then
Speaker 3: we're going to see more of that. And so while
Speaker 3: it's wonderful that Britney Griner is playing alongside American teammates
Speaker 3: now at the Paris Olympics, I do worry for other
Speaker 3: US S FOURTS figures. I do worry for other American journalists.
Speaker 3: And I think the caution everyone should take from this
Speaker 3: is to take much more caution when you're traveling to
Speaker 3: some of these countries.
Speaker 2: A great conversation with a lot to think about today
Speaker 2: from Brett Bruin. Brett, thank you for being with us
Speaker 2: from the Global Situation Room here in the nation's capital,
Speaker 2: former diplomat with us live on balance of power. As
Speaker 2: we stand by to hear from Joe Biden. We will
Speaker 2: when he speaks. The State Dining Room will be the
Speaker 2: venue and we'll see who joins the president. The optics
Speaker 2: here will be important today as we balance a couple
Speaker 2: of different stories here, including what's happening in Israel, bracing
Speaker 2: for revenge here, bracing for a retaliatory strike or event
Speaker 2: of some sort from Iran following what we described to
Speaker 2: you yesterday the twin killings, the obviously the operative from
Speaker 2: Hesbolah who was behind the strike in the Golan Heights,
Speaker 2: and then yesterday the political leader of Hamas in Tehran.
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable and bold move that has a lot of
Speaker 2: folks wondering exactly what is going to come next. The
Speaker 2: IDF is bracing and preparing for a couple of different
Speaker 2: scenarios here, and we wanted to talk about them with
Speaker 2: Michael Knights. A very delicate moment here in geopolitics. Jill
Speaker 2: and Jay Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for
Speaker 2: Nieri's policy. Michael, it's great to have you back. I
Speaker 2: wonder what your expectations are in the next twenty four
Speaker 2: to forty eight.
Speaker 5: Hours having me, I think the expectation is that as
Speaker 5: soon as the funeral of the senior Hamas figure is
Speaker 5: completed on Friday, from that point onwards, Israel is bracing
Speaker 5: foreign attack from as early as Saturday morning, and.
Speaker 6: An attack that may come not just from Iran, but
Speaker 6: also from Lebanese as Bulla, from the Iraqi and Syrian
Speaker 6: militias tied to Iran, and from the hoofies in Yemen
Speaker 6: as well. So it could be a rerun of April's
Speaker 6: Iran Israel exchange of fire, while with a larger number
Speaker 6: of actors.
Speaker 2: Well, this is obviously, as I mentioned, a delicate moment
Speaker 2: that could take on a couple of different forms here,
Speaker 2: and there have been questions about whether we'd see a
Speaker 2: repeat of what we saw in April. Clearly, none of
Speaker 2: the parties here from what we've heard, for at least
Speaker 2: and maybe you can disagree with some of the smart
Speaker 2: analysis that we've heard in this program that none of
Speaker 2: the parties involved want to see an escalation into a
Speaker 2: regional conflict. Well that keep the tip for Tat under
Speaker 2: control after whatever is about to happen.
Speaker 1: Everybody agrees that.
Speaker 6: Actors would prefer not to see their home nations seriously destroyed,
Speaker 6: whether it's Lebanesas full of the Iranians or the Israelis.
Speaker 6: And yet you know, the players, including Mennyaho most recently,
Speaker 6: you know, take choices that do risk a broader war.
Speaker 6: And what Mennya, who you know, ultimately decided to authorize
Speaker 6: in the last thirty six hours, were you know, two
Speaker 6: of the highest profile strikes Israel has ever done extraordinarily successful.
Speaker 6: But if you're on the edge of potentially closing a
Speaker 6: major hostage rescued deal which has been strongly encouraged by
Speaker 6: the Americans and broken by the Cutteries and the Egyptians,
Speaker 6: it's an odd thing to do to kill the Hamas leader, who,
Speaker 6: for all of his faults, was probably the one pushing
Speaker 6: for that hostage hostage exchange deal the strongest. So it,
Speaker 6: you know, it shows you that people are willing to
Speaker 6: risk going to higher levels of escalation, and the Israelis
Speaker 6: in particular feel like they have what you would call
Speaker 6: escalation dominance. In other words, they can kill his bullet
Speaker 6: commanders and Hamas commanders, and they're still going to ultimately
Speaker 6: get their way in the end, whether that's has Buller
Speaker 6: withdrawal from the border or hostage deel in which Hamas
Speaker 6: surrenders remaining Israeli and Western hostages.
Speaker 2: We're spending some time with Michael Knights as we wait
Speaker 2: to hear from Joe Biden, and we do have a
Speaker 2: word on a two minute warning from the White House.
Speaker 2: President Biden will be speaking to the prisoner swap from
Speaker 2: the White House in just two minutes from now. Michael,
Speaker 2: is this once again a move to escalate in an
Speaker 2: effort to de escalate like we saw a few months ago.
Speaker 4: Yes, it is.
Speaker 6: And just to when you're talking about the prisoner swap,
Speaker 6: you're probably talking about the Russian US one, right, not
Speaker 6: the Israel Palestine one that we were just discussing.
Speaker 2: Yes, but getting back to the matter of yes, but
Speaker 2: I'm asking you about Israel and Iran and the set
Speaker 2: up here optically in an effort to escalate to de escalate.
Speaker 1: Got it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, just clarifying for the for the listener.
Speaker 6: So you know at the moment we're now going to
Speaker 6: move back into de escalation mode. But Iran probably you know,
Speaker 6: in a sense, will be allowed to do one strikeout
Speaker 6: at Israel because of the The Israelis will probably say
Speaker 6: that's fair game, and the Americans too. If that strike
Speaker 6: is too heavy, though, then a new sequence begins again.
Speaker 6: The Israelis will hit back, We'll decide, will work out
Speaker 6: how hard they hit back, and then the Iranians will
Speaker 6: hit back. So everybody, you know, we can either get
Speaker 6: this one and done. Now where the Uranians hit back,
Speaker 6: it's not too bad, and everybody says okay, first fair
Speaker 6: or somebody hits too hard or is accidentally too successful
Speaker 6: in striking Israel and we go into a round a tipasa.
Speaker 2: Michael. It's great to have you back, and we appreciate
Speaker 2: the time to have you on Bloomberg as always Michael
Speaker 2: Knights at the Washington Institute with our eyes on the
Speaker 2: situation in Israel and Iran and of course in Gaza,
Speaker 2: with so many things to unfold.
Speaker 1: Still you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
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Speaker 2: Thirty now confirmed by the President of the United States.
Speaker 2: If you were with us. A short time ago, we
Speaker 2: had live remarks from Joe Biden at the White House
Speaker 2: confirming the release of Evan Gershkovich, Paul Wheelan, also Kromashova,
Speaker 2: and Vladimir Kara MRSA as part of the biggest prisoner
Speaker 2: swap with Russia since the Cold War, involving two dozen
Speaker 2: people and about a half dozen countries. The President acknowledging
Speaker 2: our allies and thanking them in Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway
Speaker 2: and Turkey, saying in the United States, we stand for
Speaker 2: freedom and liberty, for justice, not only for our own people,
Speaker 2: but for others as well. We assembled our panel today
Speaker 2: having thought we'd be talking about, as I said earlier,
Speaker 2: the bitter edges of the presidential campaign, and we will
Speaker 2: get there. They carve out two hours for us each
Speaker 2: day to talk politics, but right now this moment with
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg politics contributors, Genie of Course,
Speaker 2: political science professor at Iona and senior democracy fellow with
Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital. Great to see
Speaker 2: you both. This is a big moment for Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: Would it have happened if he had not dropped out
Speaker 2: of the race, You.
Speaker 7: Know, I don't think we know, but we're still learning
Speaker 7: when this came about, which seems to be several months ago.
Speaker 7: But can I just say, what a moment for these
Speaker 7: families that were standing there, the little twelve year old
Speaker 7: girl turns thirteen tomorrow crying after the Presidency's Happy Birthday tour,
Speaker 7: the Wheelands talking about the fact the many years that
Speaker 7: they have suffered through this. I mean, what a moment
Speaker 7: for all of these families and of course the prisoners
Speaker 7: who are coming home. In terms of Joe Biden, we
Speaker 7: are starting to learn that this has been in the
Speaker 7: works for.
Speaker 8: A long time.
Speaker 7: I suspect it would have still happened regardless of whether
Speaker 7: he dropped out or not, And in fact we heard
Speaker 7: and I think this has to be verified. But the
Speaker 7: very day he withdrew from the race, he was on
Speaker 7: the phone talking to allies around the world to make
Speaker 7: sure that his withdrawal and changes going on domestically here
Speaker 7: and elsewhere didn't impact this deal which was coming together.
Speaker 7: They were worried it might fall apart. So I suspect
Speaker 7: it would have come through either way. But what a
Speaker 7: moment for Joe Biden, but more importantly for these families.
Speaker 2: Well, absolutely, and you're right, Genie, to see all Sue's husband, Pavel,
Speaker 2: and their daughters BB and Miriam. We introduced our listeners
Speaker 2: and viewers, as you well know, to Pavel and BB
Speaker 2: here in our studios a couple of weeks ago. It
Speaker 2: was pretty hard to keep it together watching all of that.
Speaker 2: Rick A very poignant moment today for the administration but
Speaker 2: also for the country, isn't it.
Speaker 9: Absolutely? This is the kind of thing we want governments
Speaker 9: to work together on. Obviously, it was a massive effort
Speaker 9: by the White House and other countries to formulate a
Speaker 9: strategy to be able to make this exchange. Lots of
Speaker 9: people involved. I'd like to have a shout out to
Speaker 9: Vladimir karram Moos's family. He was very close to John
Speaker 9: McCain and has participated in very many McCain Institute programs
Speaker 9: over the years. In fact, was with us in Sedona, Arizona,
Speaker 9: just prior to returning to Russia to continue his work
Speaker 9: when he was arrest. So our prayers are answered. He's
Speaker 9: coming home and I know he'll be welcomed by his
Speaker 9: family and many of us who think the work he
Speaker 9: has done has been very important.
Speaker 2: You know, of course, the campaign is injected into this.
Speaker 2: Before Joe Biden even leaves the room, reporters are asking questions.
Speaker 2: Genie in the last one. It's always the last question,
Speaker 2: isn't it. He decided to hang around and answer the
Speaker 2: last question. It was about Trump, who says he could
Speaker 2: have done this in a day. The President went back
Speaker 2: to the microphone. It's like, man, the communications staff's having
Speaker 2: some tough memories here. What's he going to say? And
Speaker 2: it was a simple answer, why didn't he do it
Speaker 2: when he was in office? How did that play politically?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 8: I think that is the response. We're already hearing from JD.
Speaker 7: Vance that the reason this may have happened is because
Speaker 7: Russia feared Donald Trump coming into office. And of course
Speaker 7: he's so much stronger than the demos would be. And
Speaker 7: of course we know what Donald Trump will say. At
Speaker 7: least we can guess he's gonna say. You know, I
Speaker 7: as he said, he could get this done in a
Speaker 7: day Joe Biden gave away the farm. You know, this
Speaker 7: makes it the world more dangerous. Putin would have listened
Speaker 7: to me. We know, it'll say, But Joe Biden's response
Speaker 7: was simple and accurate. You were in office from twenty
Speaker 7: seventeen to twenty twenty. He Whalen at least was taken
Speaker 7: in twenty eighteen or imprisoned in twenty eighteen. You had
Speaker 7: two years to do this and you didn't get it done.
Speaker 7: And you know, one thing to remember about all of this,
Speaker 7: it doesn't happen at this scope with seven plus countries
Speaker 7: involved without really strong allies. And that is an argument
Speaker 7: I hope Democrats make on this. Donald Trump could not
Speaker 7: have made this agreement because it involved, for instance, the
Speaker 7: German Chancellor, with whom he doesn't have a strong relationship
Speaker 7: at this point, So how was he going to get
Speaker 7: this done. Joe Biden did it because of his strong
Speaker 7: relationships with allies. So it is a difference as we
Speaker 7: talk about, you know, sort of you know, removing ourselves
Speaker 7: potentially from NATO or making them pay for what's happening
Speaker 7: in Ukraine. You know, all of these things. We hear
Speaker 7: jd Vance and Donald Trump saying that you know, we
Speaker 7: need to turn inward. When you turn inward, there's a cost,
Speaker 7: and that cost is things like this. We need allies
Speaker 7: to secure releases like this, and Joe Biden showed how
Speaker 7: that's done.
Speaker 2: Well, what's your take on that, rick, Because Joe Biden
Speaker 2: did go out of his way to talk about the
Speaker 2: power of alliances. He said, anyone who question if allies matter,
Speaker 2: they do they matter, And he named Germany, Poland, Slovenia,
Speaker 2: Norway and Turkey. Went out of his way again after
Speaker 2: to thank the Chancellor all of that. I guess making
Speaker 2: the point that Genie was trying to there is that
Speaker 2: the takeaway today?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think it's a lot of it. It wasn't
Speaker 9: the us X alone in a vacuum. In fact, maybe
Speaker 9: one of the most important aspects of our soft power
Speaker 9: around the world is our convenient capability. There are very
Speaker 9: few countries who can assemble that group that, in many
Speaker 9: cases have a lot of existing animosity towards one another
Speaker 9: and pull them together in an exercise like this. And
Speaker 9: so our goodwill around the world is a commodity that
Speaker 9: goes under noticed, and frankly, it's what protects us because
Speaker 9: the best deterrent we have from countries like North Korea, China,
Speaker 9: Russia being even more aggressive than they are is our
Speaker 9: friends and allies around the world we're willing to help
Speaker 9: us secure peace. So absolutely is part of the message.
Speaker 9: And I think that it's something that we don't probably
Speaker 9: talk about enough, you know, in the United States. And
Speaker 9: let me just say too, in twenty seventeen, Vladimir Caramusa
Speaker 9: was poisoned by Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump did nothing
Speaker 9: in retribution to Vladimir Putin for that act. So regardless
Speaker 9: of what he said today about how tough he could
Speaker 9: be on Vladim or Putin, he let him get away
Speaker 9: with these kinds of acts of aggression, attack, in some
Speaker 9: cases murder without much pushback at all.
Speaker 2: Little reality check from Rick and Jeanie here. You know, Genie,
Speaker 2: I'll bring our listeners and viewers in on a little
Speaker 2: behind the scenes We were supposed to be talking about
Speaker 2: Donald Trump right now at the NABJ and you know,
Speaker 2: we're going to have time to get to that, because
Speaker 2: that too, was a remarkable moment on the campaign trail yesterday.
Speaker 2: But isn't it amazing that again, in this twelve minute
Speaker 2: long news cycle that we're in. Our attention is moved
Speaker 2: by a major development, and in this case, something that transcends,
Speaker 2: I think, in importance to a lot of the bickering
Speaker 2: that we see and hear on the campaign trail. And
Speaker 2: I don't mean that in any specific reference to some
Speaker 2: of the things that have been said. But isn't it
Speaker 2: incredible how our attention comes away once again from Donald
Speaker 2: Trump and moves back to what's happening in the real world.
Speaker 2: And in this case, you tell me it benefit to
Speaker 2: the Democrats.
Speaker 7: You know, I think a benefit to Joe Biden's legacy.
Speaker 7: I think, obviously most importantly a benefit to these families,
Speaker 7: to the American public. But I also think there are
Speaker 7: real serious policy considerations for the United States government here,
Speaker 7: Republican Democrats, all of us alike, which is, there has
Speaker 7: been a rise in state hostage taking, state imprisonments. We've
Speaker 7: seen that in Israel. I mean not Israel. We've seen
Speaker 7: that in Russia. Rather, we've seen it in Iran. We've
Speaker 7: seen it around the world. Those numbers are rising. We
Speaker 7: obviously still have prisoners captured by Hamas who are still
Speaker 7: there since October seventh, with very little understanding of their health,
Speaker 7: their well being, their status. So I do think the
Speaker 7: US government has to have a serious policy consideration here.
Speaker 8: How do you move forward and ensure deals.
Speaker 7: Like this don't come at the you know, endangering all
Speaker 7: of us by you know, making us all more vulnerable
Speaker 7: as we go around the world. Number one? And number two,
Speaker 7: how do you create a cost for these states who
Speaker 7: are taking innocent Americans around the world and holding them
Speaker 7: prisoner in exchange for something like this. That's a serious
Speaker 7: consideration for all of us, regardless of party.
Speaker 2: Rick Does this help Democrats in their association with success
Speaker 2: and foreign policy broadly? Or is this a Joe Biden's story.
Speaker 9: I think the rising tide carries all the boats. I
Speaker 9: think that this shows competency, which has been a foreign
Speaker 9: policy national security issue within the Biden administration. Obviously, it's
Speaker 9: been an issue around other things like the economy. If
Speaker 9: the economy improves, the ticket improves. Right, If the view
Speaker 9: on national security improves, it helps the ticket. I think
Speaker 9: that it is the kind of thing that for sure
Speaker 9: will help Imblouise and Joe Biden's legacy. But I do
Speaker 9: think there is a competency check today that will enhance
Speaker 9: Vice President Harris's campaign prospects.
Speaker 2: You know, we learned, and I'm not sure we've had
Speaker 2: a chance to talk about it yet, that Joe Biden
Speaker 2: is going to headline the first night at the Democratic
Speaker 2: National Convention. We've had a couple of conversations about what
Speaker 2: are they going to do with the president at Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris's convention?
Speaker 5: Now?
Speaker 2: What night did they have him introduced her? I think
Speaker 2: some have suggested they try to keep him as far
Speaker 2: away from her as possible. And we now know it's
Speaker 2: a primetime slot on Night one, when we can probably
Speaker 2: all agree that the fewest number of people are watching.
Speaker 2: But this is the kind of tape we're going to see,
Speaker 2: right Genie, Yeah, I think.
Speaker 7: So, We're going to see the greatest hits of Joe Biden.
Speaker 7: It's going to be exciting because I get to be
Speaker 7: there with you and Rick and Kayley.
Speaker 8: And everybody else. I am looking forward to it.
Speaker 7: Maybe the Resident sits down with you and Keiley and
Speaker 7: has a long shout about his legacy.
Speaker 2: All the questions we would ask, Rick, would you've put
Speaker 2: Joe Biden on Monday night at your convention? Is that
Speaker 2: good placement?
Speaker 9: You know, it's a unique situation because not only is
Speaker 9: he the sitting president and he's he's unpopular, so that creates,
Speaker 9: you know, different conflicts. But he actually, up until ten
Speaker 9: days ago, was the candidate who was nominated by you know,
Speaker 9: the delegate. We're going to be nominated by the delegates
Speaker 9: at this convention. So I think you have to give
Speaker 9: the guy a break and give him a slot and
Speaker 9: let him knock himself out. He he's got a story
Speaker 9: to tell about his administration, and you know, for the
Speaker 9: Monday night of a convention, I think I think it's
Speaker 9: almost mandatory, but you know, they run the risk of
Speaker 9: putting an intensely unpopular elected official in front of the
Speaker 9: American public extolling their virtues.
Speaker 2: Of course, Rick Davis had a deal with the I
Speaker 2: don't know if it's a similar situation, but a whole
Speaker 2: different president at his convention. Rick Davis and Gendie Shanzino
Speaker 2: our signature panel with us back in hour two, we're
Speaker 2: going to explore this breaking story about the prisoner swap
Speaker 2: a lot more. Kaylee will join us and we'll talk
Speaker 2: again about the latest on the campaign trail. Donald Trump
Speaker 2: doubling down on the attacks, in some cases racial attacks
Speaker 2: against Kamala Harris will have more of it ahead only
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 10: Nearly twenty four hours ago, we were all captivated watching
Speaker 10: the screen as Donald Trump took part in a mediated
Speaker 10: conversation at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in
Speaker 10: Chicago and made a few remarks that stood out. But
Speaker 10: of course, let's remind you of the big one.
Speaker 11: I've known her a long time, indirectly, not directly very much,
Speaker 11: and she was always of Indian heritage, and she was
Speaker 11: only promoting Indian heritage. I didn't know she was black
Speaker 11: until a number of years ago when she happened to
Speaker 11: turn black. And now she wants to be known as black,
Speaker 11: So I don't know is she Indian or is she black?
Speaker 2: That was yesterday, and we had a conversation a short
Speaker 2: time later with the congressman from Missouri, Emmanuel Cleaver, a Democrat,
Speaker 2: of course, who was once chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.
Speaker 2: His reaction.
Speaker 12: We are in a really awful situation. I mean what
Speaker 12: the President said, and I don't think he gets and
Speaker 12: I hope somebody close to him will explain it. It
Speaker 12: was offensive, it was racially raunchy, and it was not
Speaker 12: becoming of a head of state.
Speaker 2: Moved forward a couple of hours and Donald Trump doubles
Speaker 2: down on truth social quote crazy Kamala is saying she's Indian,
Speaker 2: not black. This is a big deal. Stone cold phony
Speaker 2: unquote JD Vance, his running mate on the stump last night,
Speaker 2: referring to Kamala Harris as a phony having a chameleon
Speaker 2: like nature. And so there are many questions about where
Speaker 2: this rhetoric is going and exactly how Kamala Harris should
Speaker 2: respond to it, what it means about the political discourse
Speaker 2: in this country. And we're joined right now by a
Speaker 2: Democratic Member of Congress from the important swing state of Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: Gwen Moore is with us from Wisconsin's fourth district in Congresswoman,
Speaker 2: I want to welcome you back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: What do you make of this conversation in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me. You know, I think to
Speaker 13: be fair to Donald Trump with the black journalists. It
Speaker 13: was a hard crowd, and to be fair to the journalists,
Speaker 13: they had a very hard respondent. I think Donald Trump,
Speaker 13: we have to give him credit for really hitting all
Speaker 13: of his messaging points to keep people in fear of
Speaker 13: losing their jobs because of you know, the immigrants or
Speaker 13: overrunning the border and taking black jobs, and that they
Speaker 13: are overrunning the borders and their criminals and rapists, that
Speaker 13: they're killing people a real exaggeration. And I wish this,
Speaker 13: you know, fact check in real time had been the
Speaker 13: journalists interrupting him because people believe that, and I think
Speaker 13: fear and xenophobia and fear of white people being overrun
Speaker 13: by others. He was able to stay on message despite
Speaker 13: the very tough crowd that he was talking with, and
Speaker 13: of course the black journalists themselves was scratching their heads
Speaker 13: wondering why they had even invited him so well, certainly,
Speaker 13: I think it changed anybody's minds either way.
Speaker 10: Well, certainly congressom when we saw things get combative a
Speaker 10: few times, specifically with Rachel Scott of ABC, who did
Speaker 10: try to fact check the former president at multiple times
Speaker 10: throughout the conversation, and it actually did seem that. What
Speaker 10: set the whole thing off was her introductory question, in
Speaker 10: which she repeated a number of statements around black individuals
Speaker 10: black journalists that Donald Trump had made and asked him, essentially,
Speaker 10: why someone considering a black voter considering whether or not
Speaker 10: to cast that vote for him in November, should make
Speaker 10: of that kind of rhetoric. What would you tell a
Speaker 10: black voter considering whether or not to vote for Donald
Speaker 10: Trump or instead to choose Kamala Harris.
Speaker 5: Well, you know.
Speaker 9: What the black journalists were trying to demonstrate.
Speaker 13: Just listen to what he says. And you know, it
Speaker 13: has to me scratching my head as to why any
Speaker 13: black person would vote for him, except for those people
Speaker 13: who are exceptionally wealthy, or except for those rappers and
Speaker 13: so on who expect to be pardoned. But it's a curiosity.
Speaker 13: It's a curiosity why he even accepted the invitation to come.
Speaker 13: You have to give him credit for showing up for
Speaker 13: that very tough crowd. But again, I don't think anybody's
Speaker 13: minds were changed, and I think black voters who saw
Speaker 13: it probably that increased their resolve to vote for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: I'm struck by your approach here a congresswoman. I'm trying
Speaker 2: to follow what you're saying as closely as I can.
Speaker 2: I don't know if this is a little bit of
Speaker 2: reverse psychology, but are you giving Donald Trump credit for
Speaker 2: having continuity in being racist?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 13: Absolutely, I think that he sounded like a true believer
Speaker 13: that you know that, you know, Mexicans and other people,
Speaker 13: criminals were overrunning the border and taking black jobs. I
Speaker 13: doubt that they were taking any of the black journalist's
Speaker 13: jobs that were sitting in that room. But he did
Speaker 13: have a huge platform for scaring other black people who
Speaker 13: may be marginalized and inappropriately blame people who crossed the border.
Speaker 13: I mean, he he had message discipline, He never got
Speaker 13: off of his his big hits. He even even even
Speaker 13: when he said that Kamala, you know, he didn't realize
Speaker 13: she was black until recently. She was pretending to not
Speaker 13: be black. Even then, he was sort of appealing to
Speaker 13: some segment of the black community who may not feel
Speaker 13: like she's black enough. Even though she went to Howard University,
Speaker 13: had a black father. She joined the first black sorority
Speaker 13: installed in the United States. You know people, you know,
Speaker 13: some black people who might have some very nationalistic views
Speaker 13: about what a black person ought to look like and
Speaker 13: be like and sound like. So he's stuck with the
Speaker 13: grievance message. He's stuck with the other's message. He's stuck
Speaker 13: with the victimhood message, and that, unfortunately has appeal to
Speaker 13: some people. I do think he was talking to his supporters.
Speaker 13: His supporters might have been gleeful about him pushing back
Speaker 13: against these black women and talking over.
Speaker 4: Them, and I'm sure that they.
Speaker 13: Were very pleased with his performance.
Speaker 10: Okay, so that's Donald Trump's message, Congressman. I also would
Speaker 10: like to ask you about the message the vice president
Speaker 10: could be bringing next week when she's planning to visit
Speaker 10: your home state of Wisconsin alongside her vice presidential peck,
Speaker 10: whomever that may be. What Massa wins Wisconsin for her?
Speaker 10: And is there a vice presidential pick that you think
Speaker 10: would be most likely to aid her in that effort
Speaker 10: in Wisconsin?
Speaker 13: You know, I think Wisconsin is very willing and able
Speaker 13: statewide to elect a Democrat to the presidency. I think
Speaker 13: we have had enough of Donald Trump and even the Republicans,
Speaker 13: and we have seen the performance in so called Republican
Speaker 13: areas improve for Democrats statewide. So I do think that
Speaker 13: Kamala with whoever she picks, is going to be welcomed
Speaker 13: in Wisconsin. You know, there's a lot of talk back
Speaker 13: and forth about who she ought to pick. I hope
Speaker 13: she picks someone with whom she has a good rapport,
Speaker 13: someone that she trusts, somebody that shares her vision. And
Speaker 13: I think there are a lot of great candidates of
Speaker 13: whom we've heard discussed over the networks in the past
Speaker 13: few days. I think any one of them would do
Speaker 13: would be very welcomed in Wisconsin.
Speaker 10: All right, well, we should find out within the next
Speaker 10: few days. Congressoman, thank you so much for joining us
Speaker 10: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We always appreciate your time.
Speaker 10: That is Congressoman Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, thank you. And
Speaker 10: let's turn back now in our final moments with our
Speaker 10: political panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors
Speaker 10: are still with us. So, Genie, I would love to
Speaker 10: just get your reaction to what we just heard from
Speaker 10: Congresswoman more this idea that Donald Trump may have been
Speaker 10: racist yesterday, but at least he was consistent and disciplined
Speaker 10: about that message.
Speaker 8: What do you think, Yeah, I was surprised to hear that.
Speaker 7: You know, I think you know my impression and I
Speaker 7: would assume the representative might agree with this is it
Speaker 7: was the old Donald Trump we've all gotten used to.
Speaker 7: There was nothing new there. He's struggling in the polls.
Speaker 7: He's struggling to find a way to go after the
Speaker 7: Democrats and Kamala Harris in particular, and he needed to
Speaker 7: get the news back on him, and so he did
Speaker 7: as typical you know, whether it's birtherism or attacking somebody.
Speaker 8: He did that yesterday and so there was nothing new.
Speaker 7: In fact, Keiley, I kept thinking, I think the Democrats
Speaker 7: should have adopt the new slogan, which is it's not
Speaker 7: twenty sixteen anymore.
Speaker 8: This is old.
Speaker 7: We need something new from him and they're not getting it.
Speaker 7: So that was my take on it.
Speaker 2: Rick I mentioned what Donald Trump posted on truth Social
Speaker 2: after he made the remarks at the NABJ crazy Kamala
Speaker 2: is saying she's Indian not black. This is a big deal,
Speaker 2: stone cold phony. Is this the path to losing the election?
Speaker 9: You know, look, I know there are a lot of Republicans.
Speaker 9: John Thune mentioned this, These are inappropriate comments, and we
Speaker 9: ought to be talking about the issues that Republicans have
Speaker 9: an advantage on the economy, the border, and why he
Speaker 9: would go on a show like that which would be
Speaker 9: seen by a lot of black votes and be disparaging
Speaker 9: of someone's you know, ethnic background, regardless of how you
Speaker 9: call it, is phenomenal to me. And of course he
Speaker 9: uses the same trope that well, I barely know her
Speaker 9: except that he wrote a campaign contribution to her when
Speaker 9: she was a Democrat as a black candidate, and so
Speaker 9: I think he knows a lot more than he leads
Speaker 9: on it. And so yeah, I think the Republican Party
Speaker 9: would rather him be talking about the issues of the
Speaker 9: day that advantaged the campaign, then going down this sort
Speaker 9: of rabbit hole on frankly kind of reverse woke cultural
Speaker 9: battles that you know, nobody thinks is actually as irrelevant
Speaker 9: today as it was maybe back in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 2: Reverse woke. That's a good one, that's a new one.
Speaker 2: Even Senator Tommy Tuberville didn't want anything to do with this.
Speaker 2: The coach from Alabama, quote, I ain't getting involved in that.
Speaker 2: Let him talk about what he wants to talk about
Speaker 2: on quote. That's where we are in American politics today. Kayleie,
Speaker 2: but I will point everyone back to the remarkable news
Speaker 2: that we started this hour with, and that is the
Speaker 2: release of four Americans as part of a huge prisoner
Speaker 2: swap with Russia that also happened today.
Speaker 10: Yeah, and as the President said, good news and especially
Speaker 10: good news for the families that were with him at
Speaker 10: the White House. So a remarkable day in Washington. We're
Speaker 10: glad to spend some of it, as always with our
Speaker 10: political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. Thank you both
Speaker 10: so much, and we'll have more ahead here on Bloomberg
Speaker 10: TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 10: Thanks for joining us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg
Speaker 10: TV and Radio, where today we've been talking a lot
Speaker 10: about some pretty momentous news, a prisoner exchange with Russia
Speaker 10: involving dozens of individuals, including four Americans who had been
Speaker 10: detained who are now on their way home. That includes
Speaker 10: journalists also Kimasheva, Evan Gerskovich, and of course former US
Speaker 10: Marine Paul Whelan. We're just hearing now from US National
Speaker 10: Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who is speaking to reporters. He
Speaker 10: says that Evan and Paul are expected back on American
Speaker 10: soil tonight. He says that President Biden and Vice President
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris will greet them as after they were released
Speaker 10: in this swap. But also some interesting news from Jake
Speaker 10: Sullivan when it pertains to the other thing we're watching,
Speaker 10: which is escalating tensions in the Middle East. Joe Jake
Speaker 10: Sullivan says that President Biden will be speaking with Israeli
Speaker 10: Prime Minister Benjamin et Niyahu later.
Speaker 2: Today, once again finding himself, Joe Biden, finding himself in
Speaker 2: a position to call for calm and a proportionate response,
Speaker 2: in this case coming from Iran. Kayleie, the IDF, we're told,
Speaker 2: is bracing for revenge right now, gaming out options on
Speaker 2: what might come back to is from Iran following the
Speaker 2: strike that killed the political leader of Hamas in Tehran itself.
Speaker 2: They have vowed revenge. It's not a question of whether
Speaker 2: this will happen but to what extent it will happen?
Speaker 2: And we want to talk to Kelly Grico about this
Speaker 2: among some of the other geopolitical stories that we're following.
Speaker 2: F sixteen's have just started arriving in Ukraine, for instance,
Speaker 2: Kelly senior fellow at the Stimpson Centers Reimagining US Grand
Speaker 2: Strategy Program. And it's great to have you back. Kelly.
Speaker 2: You talked to us back in April about the risk
Speaker 2: of a wider regional conflict when Israel was bracing at
Speaker 2: that point for retaliation once again from Iran. Will the
Speaker 2: US and Israel be able to diffuse it like they
Speaker 2: did back in April.
Speaker 14: Well, thank you for having me. You know, certainly deja
Speaker 14: vu all over again. You know, this is we're rolling
Speaker 14: the dice again. I think there are a couple of things.
Speaker 14: This is similar in some ways to what happened in April,
Speaker 14: that we're bracing for another attack, likely an attack directly
Speaker 14: on Israel, But there are some really important differences that
Speaker 14: make me more concerned about being able to manage it.
Speaker 14: One is that from Iran's perspective, this is a massive
Speaker 14: deterrence failure. They had hoped when they launched the April
Speaker 14: attack in response to when Israel contected strikes against an
Speaker 14: embassy compound, killing some Iranian senior commanders.
Speaker 4: They had hoped that that massive three hundred.
Speaker 14: You know, drones missile farage would act as a deterrent,
Speaker 14: preventing Israel from doing something else, particularly something against Iran directly,
Speaker 14: and that hasn't worked, So they're going to feel a
Speaker 14: need to do something more escalatory to send that signal,
Speaker 14: that message to deter Iran moving forward, and of course
Speaker 14: that makes this very dangerous. And then we add to
Speaker 14: it the humiliate piece for Iran. But this happened right
Speaker 14: in Tehran and you know, the senior government they're celebrating
Speaker 14: an inauguration, and that's that's a dangerous combination.
Speaker 10: Well, so, Kelly, if we are comparing this moment to
Speaker 10: what we saw back in April, there was also a
Speaker 10: narrative after that failed attack that Iran sent those drones
Speaker 10: and missiles pretty much all intercepted by Israel, the US
Speaker 10: and other allies, that it showed a failure on the
Speaker 10: part of Iran. What else does Iran potentially have to
Speaker 10: throw at Israel? Hill here have we seen the full
Speaker 10: extent of their capability.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I would say two things.
Speaker 14: I think we should be cautious about what happened in April, because,
Speaker 14: as someone who studies airpower really closely, that looked a
Speaker 14: lot like what I would call operational theater.
Speaker 4: If they were serious.
Speaker 14: About penetrating Israeli airspace air defenses, you do not send
Speaker 14: your slowest drones first alerting us that we have a
Speaker 14: four hour six hour, you know, notification that there's an
Speaker 14: attack starting, right, they would have started with ballistic missiles.
Speaker 14: They did quite the opposite, starting with the slowest thing.
Speaker 14: And so I think they were actually tending to a
Speaker 14: large degree for these things to be intercepted, sort of
Speaker 14: a display of force. I don't know if we're going
Speaker 14: to see that this time. This might be, you know,
Speaker 14: a much more serious, sophisticated attack that's harder to defend against.
Speaker 14: And then I think we add to that, which is,
Speaker 14: you know, as you're saying, which is, there's other options here.
Speaker 4: This was calibrated last time.
Speaker 14: They did not involve proxy actors, whether that's in Lebanon
Speaker 14: or Syria or Yemen. So that's another option as well.
Speaker 14: It could be a more sophisticated attack, it could be
Speaker 14: a larger coordinated attack with proxies in the region.
Speaker 2: Well, we see the US and allies providing the same
Speaker 2: defense role that we saw last time, actually knocking missiles
Speaker 2: out of the air on behalf of Israel.
Speaker 14: Yeah, so, I mean yesterday Secretary Austin was asked about
Speaker 14: and he said that we would again stand by Israel
Speaker 14: and defended You know, it sounds like the United States
Speaker 14: is prepared to do that again. I do think there
Speaker 14: are real questions though about whether we'll see the same
Speaker 14: kind of coordination we saw last time with Saudi Arabia
Speaker 14: and Jordan in particular that allowed us to intercept things
Speaker 14: in their airspace. You know, they've all sent out statements
Speaker 14: condemning Israel's actions. I think this makes it harder for
Speaker 14: them to repeat that from last time. And the other
Speaker 14: thing I just add is this is very expensive for US,
Speaker 14: the United States when we're using these kinds of interceptor
Speaker 14: missiles that we really need in other theaters, whether it's
Speaker 14: Ukraine or it's the Endo Pacific. So I think there's
Speaker 14: a question too, just about how many more times are
Speaker 14: we going to actually be.
Speaker 4: Able to do this in support of Israel.
Speaker 10: Well, which gets us back to our own defense industrial base,
Speaker 10: which was so much the question in the debate over
Speaker 10: aid for Ukraine, and certainly we've even heard the likes
Speaker 10: of Vice presidential nominee on the Republican side, JD. Vance,
Speaker 10: talking about how the US should be reserving more of
Speaker 10: its ammunitions and power for other areas other than Ukraine.
Speaker 10: On that subject though Kelly, of course, in addition to
Speaker 10: the theater we're talking about in the Middle East, there's
Speaker 10: still the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russian We got
Speaker 10: the news yesterday that the first round of F sixteen
Speaker 10: deliveries has made it to Ukraine from NATO allies. How
Speaker 10: quickly will those jets make a difference?
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think they're going to make much
Speaker 4: of a difference, and.
Speaker 14: That's we know that that they're probably about six or
Speaker 14: so pilots that are graduating this summer. By the end
Speaker 14: of the year, it'll be about twenty, and usually it's
Speaker 14: two pilots per aircraft is sort of the rule of thumbs,
Speaker 14: So maybe about ten aircraft a most will be operating
Speaker 14: by the end of the year.
Speaker 4: It's a fairly small number.
Speaker 14: But I also just think that the F sixteen capabilities
Speaker 14: you see the Ukrainians kind of walking back some of
Speaker 14: their earlier statements about how impactful these would be, that
Speaker 14: they're not going to be able to use these to
Speaker 14: sort of gain air superiority and be able to, you know,
Speaker 14: support ground troops on the ground close to the front
Speaker 14: lines because of Russian air defenses.
Speaker 4: So it's going to be really limited to.
Speaker 14: More of an air defense role, perhaps intercepting some cruise
Speaker 14: missiles and drones if they're able to successfully do that. So,
Speaker 14: you know, it's expensive these F sixteens, but the actual
Speaker 14: impact on the back field, I fear will be quite limited.
Speaker 2: I don't know if my eyes are right, Kelly, but
Speaker 2: for our listeners on Bloomberg Radio, that appears to be
Speaker 2: a picture of a spitfire you have framed behind you
Speaker 2: there in your office, and of course the legendary aircraft
Speaker 2: that helped to win the Battle of Britain. What then
Speaker 2: is Ukraine's spitfire? If not these.
Speaker 14: You have a very good eye, first of all, because
Speaker 14: you are corrects the spitfire, I would say it's mobile
Speaker 14: ground based air defenses. You know, things like the Patriot,
Speaker 14: you know, the nay Sands that we've sent. Those have
Speaker 14: been the critical for them and keeping back most of
Speaker 14: Russia's air force at bay because if you move them
Speaker 14: and they can shoot and they can scoop. Of course,
Speaker 14: the challenge is we only have so many interceptor missiles.
Speaker 14: We were just talking about this in reference to Israel.
Speaker 14: So there is some idea that perhaps the S sixteens
Speaker 14: can help to make a little bit of that doing
Speaker 14: it in an air to air roll.
Speaker 4: It's a very expensive way to do that.
Speaker 14: But it's really been these mobile ground based air defenses,
Speaker 14: and I would just say, looking at how important they
Speaker 14: have been, and they've been a challenge for the United
Speaker 14: States to find these kinds of things in other war
Speaker 14: zones and locate them and destroy them. We should be
Speaker 14: thinking about this. We don't have enough clearly on the
Speaker 14: United States side, getting back to the defense industrial base,
Speaker 14: and we really need to start making smart investments prioritizing
Speaker 14: air and missile defense.
Speaker 10: How long does it take for those investments to actually
Speaker 10: come to fruition though, Kelly, what kind of timeline realistically
Speaker 10: are we considering here and what kind of resources?
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean this is a real concern, right, This
Speaker 14: this is not this is we're talking multi years. The
Speaker 14: number of you know, they're trying right now for the Patriot,
Speaker 14: for example, to increase the number of interceptors at around
Speaker 14: five hundred, maybe to get to seven hundred and fifty.
Speaker 14: But already they're starting to find even with that goal,
Speaker 14: things that are they're not supply shortages like very particular parts,
Speaker 14: they're shortages. And you know, Japan was trying to ramp
Speaker 14: up some of the missile product and the same thing,
Speaker 14: like they can't do it because of a certain part
Speaker 14: having a shortage. And so there are all these bottlenecks
Speaker 14: in the defense industrial base, all all the components and
Speaker 14: not just the stumbling of the part itself. And so
Speaker 14: this is really a multi year effort to figure out
Speaker 14: how to resolve this and where to prioritize.
Speaker 4: Those efforts as well.
Speaker 14: If where are the central areas that we should really
Speaker 14: be trying to ramp up the defense industrial base? And
Speaker 14: I would just argue that air and missile defense is
Speaker 14: certainly one of those top priority areas.
Speaker 2: Kelly, I just want to get back to where we
Speaker 2: started here before we let you go. And that's of
Speaker 2: course the situation in Israel. What's the critical window here?
Speaker 2: Do you give this the weekend to resolve when will
Speaker 2: we see something.
Speaker 14: Yeah, so I think there's a likelihood we could see
Speaker 14: it this weekend. I think the longer this gets it
Speaker 14: gets delayed, the better. The one concern that I have
Speaker 14: is I feel like the bide A demonstration's response has
Speaker 14: been a bit sluggish to these events. And I don't
Speaker 14: know if it's because of the swap of prisoners with
Speaker 14: Russia that all. A lot of the team was focused
Speaker 14: on that, but you know, we haven't seen As far
Speaker 14: as I know, there is no one's been sent to
Speaker 14: the region to try to, you know, do shuttle diplomacy
Speaker 14: like last time, and so I'm hoping, you know, very
Speaker 14: quickly we're going to see some of that that might
Speaker 14: even buy us sometime before israel I ran response, But
Speaker 14: it could be as soon as this weekend.
Speaker 10: Well, we do know. As I mentioned at the top
Speaker 10: of this segment, Jake Sullivan says President Biden will be
Speaker 10: speaking with Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo. Is that
Speaker 10: likely to be an advice call, Kelly or is that
Speaker 10: a reassurance call that the US will be there for
Speaker 10: Israel whatever comes its way.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like it should probably be a grievance
Speaker 4: call first. You know perspective.
Speaker 14: I mean, he's been working and his team has been
Speaker 14: working to try to get a ceasefire to release hostages,
Speaker 14: and it seems to have been very, very close, and
Speaker 14: in fact, Israel seems to be the party that pulled
Speaker 14: back away from it. And of course Israel has now
Speaker 14: effectively killed one of the people that was involved in
Speaker 14: the negotiations, and so I think this is going to
Speaker 14: be really hard to get a ceasefire deal.
Speaker 4: And I think that's something the ministration really wanted.
Speaker 14: And now not only is there not a seaspire, probably,
Speaker 14: but we're back at the real danger of a regional war.
Speaker 14: And I can't imagine the Biden administration is particularly happy.
Speaker 14: But they've also tied themselves so closely to Natanahu that
Speaker 14: they don't really have as much of a choice but
Speaker 14: to support him. And it seems like that is something
Speaker 14: bidenminstration is prepared to do, including defending with US military power.
Speaker 10: All Right, Kelly Grigo, sobering conversation, But thank you so
Speaker 10: much as always for joining us.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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