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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rounoro with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. It's

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Speaker 2: the first of August, and we come to air today

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube with

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Speaker 2: Remarkable News. Having spent the better part of this week

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Speaker 2: covering the bitter edges of this presidential campaign, we can

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Speaker 2: tell you today that Evan Gershkovich is free, so are

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Speaker 2: many others as part of the biggest prisoner swap with

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Speaker 2: Russia since the Cold War. We're going to be hearing

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Speaker 2: from President Biden in just a couple of moments. The

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Speaker 2: State dining room is set and the Commander in Chief

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Speaker 2: will be announcing something remarkable here that has come together

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Speaker 2: over the balance of weeks. As Russia has freed Wall

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Speaker 2: Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich as well as jailed Kremlin

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Speaker 2: critics in the largest prisoner exchange with the West in decades,

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Speaker 2: we have a statement from Jake Sullivan, of course, national

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Speaker 2: Security advisor at the White House. Not since the Cold War,

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Speaker 2: he says, has there been a similar number of individuals

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Speaker 2: exchanged in this way. And there has never, so far

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Speaker 2: as we know, been an exchange involving so many countries. Indeed,

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Speaker 2: this took place. The swap on the tarmac in Ankara, Turkey,

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Speaker 2: included two dozen people. Two dozen people, sixteen going to

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Speaker 2: the West, eight being returned to Russia. Among them, as

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Speaker 2: I mentioned, Evan Gershkovitch, but also Paul Whalen. Gershkovich was

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Speaker 2: arrested in March of last year on a reporting assignment

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Speaker 2: in Russia. Paul Whelan, of course, was jailed in twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 2: later convicted on spying charges that he denies. I have

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Speaker 2: another name for you that you will know if you

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Speaker 2: watch this program or listen to Balance of Power. Also Komarshova,

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Speaker 2: the journalist with dual Russian and US citizenship, who was

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Speaker 2: convicted just last month under the Kremlin's wartime censorship laws,

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Speaker 2: is going to be reunited with her family, if she

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Speaker 2: has not been already. We brought you a conversation with

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Speaker 2: her husband Pavel and her daughter Bibi on this program,

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Speaker 2: they will be back together. So as we wait to

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Speaker 2: hear from Joe Biden, we want to get a behind

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Speaker 2: the scenes view on what just transpired and is still

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Speaker 2: happening now with Brett Brewin, the President of the Global

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Speaker 2: Situation Room, a former diplomat who brings his national security

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Speaker 2: expertise to us here on balance of power, Brett, when

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Speaker 2: you consider the scale and the number of countries involved here,

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Speaker 2: this is something that must have been on the works

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Speaker 2: for some time.

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Speaker 3: How do you see it, Well, it's three dimensional diplomacy,

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Speaker 3: the most complex kind of diplomacy because obviously you're working

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Speaker 3: not only on a bilateral level, trying to figure out

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Speaker 3: what Moscow is willing to give and what they want

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Speaker 3: in exchange, But then you've got to work these other

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Speaker 3: countries as well, and they have shockingly their own interests,

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Speaker 3: their own concern and so it isn't an easy effort.

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Speaker 3: And hats go off to Biden's team for being able

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Speaker 3: to pull this off. That being said, Joe, and I

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Speaker 3: know you and I have talked about it before. I

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Speaker 3: do have concerns that these kinds of exchanges also incentivize

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Speaker 3: Putin and other autocratic rulers to take Americans captive and

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Speaker 3: to hold them for these kinds of concessions.

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Speaker 2: That is something that I suspect Joe Biden will want

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Speaker 2: to speak to Brett a very real concern, as are

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Speaker 2: the concerns about some of the people that are going

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Speaker 2: back to Russia here, including the dem Krasikhoff, who is

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Speaker 2: serving a life's sentence in Germany for the killing in

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen of a Chechen separatist in a Berlin park

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Speaker 2: where he was shot dead. At what costs are the

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Speaker 2: Americans coming home?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 3: And I think that is precisely the point, because Putin's

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Speaker 3: going to be able to use this to great propaganda effect.

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Speaker 3: He's going to be able to tell those who are

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Speaker 3: fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, as well as

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Speaker 3: others in the Russian military intelligence services, that we will,

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Speaker 3: no matter what circumstances you fed yourself in, be able

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Speaker 3: to bring you home. And that will embold it Russian

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Speaker 3: security forces to do even more. And I don't have

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Speaker 3: to tell you their bold acts, whether it's in Germany

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Speaker 3: or in the United Kingdom or in other parts of

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Speaker 3: the world. Africa, as one recent example we've seen with

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Speaker 3: Wagner Group have had a very destabilizing, a very dangerous

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Speaker 3: effect on countries, and I think it's important when we

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Speaker 3: take these acts. And let me be clear, we should

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Speaker 3: do everything in our power to bring Americans who are

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Speaker 3: unjustly detained overseas home. It's something that I did when

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Speaker 3: I was a diplomat serving overseas. But I do feel

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Speaker 3: that this ought to be a moment where we reflect

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Speaker 3: and we reset, because Putin is not done, and other

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Speaker 3: autocratic leaders are watching and saying, I can get the

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Speaker 3: US's attention, I can get concessions from the US if

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Speaker 3: I take another American journalist captive.

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Speaker 2: Now that this group is coming home, Gershkevich Whalen Fromasheva,

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Speaker 2: officials are talking about this as one of the few

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Speaker 2: remaining areas of diplomatic cooperation between the United States and Russia.

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Speaker 2: Do we need to raise the bar?

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Speaker 3: Well, Look, it is a bright spot in what otherwise

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Speaker 3: is a pretty bleak time. I'm sure US Russian relations,

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Speaker 3: and I think it's encouraging the sense that we can

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Speaker 3: still have these difficult dialogues and ultimately get to some

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Speaker 3: common ground. That being said, I think Putin again can

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Speaker 3: leverage it and point to this deal and say the

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Speaker 3: West the US is willing to negotiate in Ukraine. Just

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Speaker 3: keep fighting, just keep pushing, and we will get a deal,

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Speaker 3: because ultimately they will will bend, they will bow to

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Speaker 3: the public pressure on these issues. And I think it's

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Speaker 3: also important in Joe. If I go back to Britney

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Speaker 3: Grinder the WNBA stocks, you know, there was an unprecedented

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Speaker 3: level of engagement from the President, the Secretary of State,

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Speaker 3: the National Security Advisor that we had never seen in

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Speaker 3: US hostage negotiations. And what can discerned me about it

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Speaker 3: was that if Putin believes, if some of these other

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Speaker 3: autocratic leaders believe they can get the President's attention by

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Speaker 3: taking someone who has a high public profile hostage, then

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Speaker 3: we're going to see more of that. And so while

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Speaker 3: it's wonderful that Britney Griner is playing alongside American teammates

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Speaker 3: now at the Paris Olympics, I do worry for other

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Speaker 3: US S FOURTS figures. I do worry for other American journalists.

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Speaker 3: And I think the caution everyone should take from this

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Speaker 3: is to take much more caution when you're traveling to

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Speaker 3: some of these countries.

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Speaker 2: A great conversation with a lot to think about today

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Speaker 2: from Brett Bruin. Brett, thank you for being with us

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Speaker 2: from the Global Situation Room here in the nation's capital,

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Speaker 2: former diplomat with us live on balance of power. As

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Speaker 2: we stand by to hear from Joe Biden. We will

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Speaker 2: when he speaks. The State Dining Room will be the

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Speaker 2: venue and we'll see who joins the president. The optics

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Speaker 2: here will be important today as we balance a couple

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Speaker 2: of different stories here, including what's happening in Israel, bracing

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Speaker 2: for revenge here, bracing for a retaliatory strike or event

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Speaker 2: of some sort from Iran following what we described to

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Speaker 2: you yesterday the twin killings, the obviously the operative from

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Speaker 2: Hesbolah who was behind the strike in the Golan Heights,

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Speaker 2: and then yesterday the political leader of Hamas in Tehran.

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Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable and bold move that has a lot of

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Speaker 2: folks wondering exactly what is going to come next. The

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Speaker 2: IDF is bracing and preparing for a couple of different

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Speaker 2: scenarios here, and we wanted to talk about them with

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Speaker 2: Michael Knights. A very delicate moment here in geopolitics. Jill

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Speaker 2: and Jay Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for

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Speaker 2: Nieri's policy. Michael, it's great to have you back. I

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Speaker 2: wonder what your expectations are in the next twenty four

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Speaker 2: to forty eight.

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Speaker 5: Hours having me, I think the expectation is that as

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Speaker 5: soon as the funeral of the senior Hamas figure is

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Speaker 5: completed on Friday, from that point onwards, Israel is bracing

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Speaker 5: foreign attack from as early as Saturday morning, and.

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Speaker 6: An attack that may come not just from Iran, but

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Speaker 6: also from Lebanese as Bulla, from the Iraqi and Syrian

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Speaker 6: militias tied to Iran, and from the hoofies in Yemen

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Speaker 6: as well. So it could be a rerun of April's

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Speaker 6: Iran Israel exchange of fire, while with a larger number

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Speaker 6: of actors.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is obviously, as I mentioned, a delicate moment

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Speaker 2: that could take on a couple of different forms here,

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Speaker 2: and there have been questions about whether we'd see a

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Speaker 2: repeat of what we saw in April. Clearly, none of

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Speaker 2: the parties here from what we've heard, for at least

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Speaker 2: and maybe you can disagree with some of the smart

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Speaker 2: analysis that we've heard in this program that none of

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Speaker 2: the parties involved want to see an escalation into a

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Speaker 2: regional conflict. Well that keep the tip for Tat under

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Speaker 2: control after whatever is about to happen.

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Speaker 1: Everybody agrees that.

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Speaker 6: Actors would prefer not to see their home nations seriously destroyed,

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Speaker 6: whether it's Lebanesas full of the Iranians or the Israelis.

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Speaker 6: And yet you know, the players, including Mennyaho most recently,

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Speaker 6: you know, take choices that do risk a broader war.

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Speaker 6: And what Mennya, who you know, ultimately decided to authorize

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Speaker 6: in the last thirty six hours, were you know, two

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Speaker 6: of the highest profile strikes Israel has ever done extraordinarily successful.

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Speaker 6: But if you're on the edge of potentially closing a

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Speaker 6: major hostage rescued deal which has been strongly encouraged by

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Speaker 6: the Americans and broken by the Cutteries and the Egyptians,

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Speaker 6: it's an odd thing to do to kill the Hamas leader, who,

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Speaker 6: for all of his faults, was probably the one pushing

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Speaker 6: for that hostage hostage exchange deal the strongest. So it,

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Speaker 6: you know, it shows you that people are willing to

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Speaker 6: risk going to higher levels of escalation, and the Israelis

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Speaker 6: in particular feel like they have what you would call

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Speaker 6: escalation dominance. In other words, they can kill his bullet

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Speaker 6: commanders and Hamas commanders, and they're still going to ultimately

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Speaker 6: get their way in the end, whether that's has Buller

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Speaker 6: withdrawal from the border or hostage deel in which Hamas

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Speaker 6: surrenders remaining Israeli and Western hostages.

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Speaker 2: We're spending some time with Michael Knights as we wait

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Speaker 2: to hear from Joe Biden, and we do have a

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Speaker 2: word on a two minute warning from the White House.

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Speaker 2: President Biden will be speaking to the prisoner swap from

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Speaker 2: the White House in just two minutes from now. Michael,

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Speaker 2: is this once again a move to escalate in an

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Speaker 2: effort to de escalate like we saw a few months ago.

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Speaker 4: Yes, it is.

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Speaker 6: And just to when you're talking about the prisoner swap,

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Speaker 6: you're probably talking about the Russian US one, right, not

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Speaker 6: the Israel Palestine one that we were just discussing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, but getting back to the matter of yes, but

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Speaker 2: I'm asking you about Israel and Iran and the set

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Speaker 2: up here optically in an effort to escalate to de escalate.

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Speaker 1: Got it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, just clarifying for the for the listener.

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Speaker 6: So you know at the moment we're now going to

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Speaker 6: move back into de escalation mode. But Iran probably you know,

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Speaker 6: in a sense, will be allowed to do one strikeout

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Speaker 6: at Israel because of the The Israelis will probably say

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Speaker 6: that's fair game, and the Americans too. If that strike

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Speaker 6: is too heavy, though, then a new sequence begins again.

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Speaker 6: The Israelis will hit back, We'll decide, will work out

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Speaker 6: how hard they hit back, and then the Iranians will

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Speaker 6: hit back. So everybody, you know, we can either get

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Speaker 6: this one and done. Now where the Uranians hit back,

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Speaker 6: it's not too bad, and everybody says okay, first fair

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Speaker 6: or somebody hits too hard or is accidentally too successful

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Speaker 6: in striking Israel and we go into a round a tipasa.

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Speaker 2: Michael. It's great to have you back, and we appreciate

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Speaker 2: the time to have you on Bloomberg as always Michael

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Speaker 2: Knights at the Washington Institute with our eyes on the

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Speaker 2: situation in Israel and Iran and of course in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: with so many things to unfold.

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Speaker 1: Still you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 1: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

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Speaker 1: then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

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Speaker 1: station just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Thirty now confirmed by the President of the United States.

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Speaker 2: If you were with us. A short time ago, we

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Speaker 2: had live remarks from Joe Biden at the White House

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Speaker 2: confirming the release of Evan Gershkovich, Paul Wheelan, also Kromashova,

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Speaker 2: and Vladimir Kara MRSA as part of the biggest prisoner

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Speaker 2: swap with Russia since the Cold War, involving two dozen

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Speaker 2: people and about a half dozen countries. The President acknowledging

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Speaker 2: our allies and thanking them in Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway

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Speaker 2: and Turkey, saying in the United States, we stand for

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Speaker 2: freedom and liberty, for justice, not only for our own people,

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Speaker 2: but for others as well. We assembled our panel today

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Speaker 2: having thought we'd be talking about, as I said earlier,

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Speaker 2: the bitter edges of the presidential campaign, and we will

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Speaker 2: get there. They carve out two hours for us each

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Speaker 2: day to talk politics, but right now this moment with

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Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg politics contributors, Genie of Course,

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Speaker 2: political science professor at Iona and senior democracy fellow with

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Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress.

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital. Great to see

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Speaker 2: you both. This is a big moment for Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Would it have happened if he had not dropped out

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Speaker 2: of the race, You.

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Speaker 7: Know, I don't think we know, but we're still learning

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Speaker 7: when this came about, which seems to be several months ago.

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Speaker 7: But can I just say, what a moment for these

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Speaker 7: families that were standing there, the little twelve year old

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Speaker 7: girl turns thirteen tomorrow crying after the Presidency's Happy Birthday tour,

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Speaker 7: the Wheelands talking about the fact the many years that

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Speaker 7: they have suffered through this. I mean, what a moment

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Speaker 7: for all of these families and of course the prisoners

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Speaker 7: who are coming home. In terms of Joe Biden, we

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Speaker 7: are starting to learn that this has been in the

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Speaker 7: works for.

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Speaker 8: A long time.

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Speaker 7: I suspect it would have still happened regardless of whether

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Speaker 7: he dropped out or not, And in fact we heard

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Speaker 7: and I think this has to be verified. But the

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Speaker 7: very day he withdrew from the race, he was on

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Speaker 7: the phone talking to allies around the world to make

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Speaker 7: sure that his withdrawal and changes going on domestically here

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Speaker 7: and elsewhere didn't impact this deal which was coming together.

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Speaker 7: They were worried it might fall apart. So I suspect

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Speaker 7: it would have come through either way. But what a

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Speaker 7: moment for Joe Biden, but more importantly for these families.

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Speaker 2: Well, absolutely, and you're right, Genie, to see all Sue's husband, Pavel,

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Speaker 2: and their daughters BB and Miriam. We introduced our listeners

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Speaker 2: and viewers, as you well know, to Pavel and BB

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Speaker 2: here in our studios a couple of weeks ago. It

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Speaker 2: was pretty hard to keep it together watching all of that.

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Speaker 2: Rick A very poignant moment today for the administration but

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Speaker 2: also for the country, isn't it.

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Speaker 9: Absolutely? This is the kind of thing we want governments

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Speaker 9: to work together on. Obviously, it was a massive effort

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Speaker 9: by the White House and other countries to formulate a

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Speaker 9: strategy to be able to make this exchange. Lots of

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Speaker 9: people involved. I'd like to have a shout out to

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Speaker 9: Vladimir karram Moos's family. He was very close to John

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Speaker 9: McCain and has participated in very many McCain Institute programs

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Speaker 9: over the years. In fact, was with us in Sedona, Arizona,

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Speaker 9: just prior to returning to Russia to continue his work

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Speaker 9: when he was arrest. So our prayers are answered. He's

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Speaker 9: coming home and I know he'll be welcomed by his

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Speaker 9: family and many of us who think the work he

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Speaker 9: has done has been very important.

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Speaker 2: You know, of course, the campaign is injected into this.

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Speaker 2: Before Joe Biden even leaves the room, reporters are asking questions.

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Speaker 2: Genie in the last one. It's always the last question,

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Speaker 2: isn't it. He decided to hang around and answer the

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Speaker 2: last question. It was about Trump, who says he could

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Speaker 2: have done this in a day. The President went back

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Speaker 2: to the microphone. It's like, man, the communications staff's having

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Speaker 2: some tough memories here. What's he going to say? And

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Speaker 2: it was a simple answer, why didn't he do it

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Speaker 2: when he was in office? How did that play politically?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 8: I think that is the response. We're already hearing from JD.

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Speaker 7: Vance that the reason this may have happened is because

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Speaker 7: Russia feared Donald Trump coming into office. And of course

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Speaker 7: he's so much stronger than the demos would be. And

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Speaker 7: of course we know what Donald Trump will say. At

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Speaker 7: least we can guess he's gonna say. You know, I

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Speaker 7: as he said, he could get this done in a

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Speaker 7: day Joe Biden gave away the farm. You know, this

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Speaker 7: makes it the world more dangerous. Putin would have listened

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Speaker 7: to me. We know, it'll say, But Joe Biden's response

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Speaker 7: was simple and accurate. You were in office from twenty

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Speaker 7: seventeen to twenty twenty. He Whalen at least was taken

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Speaker 7: in twenty eighteen or imprisoned in twenty eighteen. You had

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Speaker 7: two years to do this and you didn't get it done.

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Speaker 7: And you know, one thing to remember about all of this,

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Speaker 7: it doesn't happen at this scope with seven plus countries

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Speaker 7: involved without really strong allies. And that is an argument

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Speaker 7: I hope Democrats make on this. Donald Trump could not

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Speaker 7: have made this agreement because it involved, for instance, the

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Speaker 7: German Chancellor, with whom he doesn't have a strong relationship

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Speaker 7: at this point, So how was he going to get

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Speaker 7: this done. Joe Biden did it because of his strong

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Speaker 7: relationships with allies. So it is a difference as we

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Speaker 7: talk about, you know, sort of you know, removing ourselves

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Speaker 7: potentially from NATO or making them pay for what's happening

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Speaker 7: in Ukraine. You know, all of these things. We hear

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Speaker 7: jd Vance and Donald Trump saying that you know, we

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Speaker 7: need to turn inward. When you turn inward, there's a cost,

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Speaker 7: and that cost is things like this. We need allies

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Speaker 7: to secure releases like this, and Joe Biden showed how

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Speaker 7: that's done.

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Speaker 2: Well, what's your take on that, rick, Because Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: did go out of his way to talk about the

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Speaker 2: power of alliances. He said, anyone who question if allies matter,

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Speaker 2: they do they matter, And he named Germany, Poland, Slovenia,

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Speaker 2: Norway and Turkey. Went out of his way again after

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Speaker 2: to thank the Chancellor all of that. I guess making

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Speaker 2: the point that Genie was trying to there is that

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Speaker 2: the takeaway today?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I think it's a lot of it. It wasn't

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Speaker 9: the us X alone in a vacuum. In fact, maybe

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Speaker 9: one of the most important aspects of our soft power

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Speaker 9: around the world is our convenient capability. There are very

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Speaker 9: few countries who can assemble that group that, in many

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Speaker 9: cases have a lot of existing animosity towards one another

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Speaker 9: and pull them together in an exercise like this. And

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Speaker 9: so our goodwill around the world is a commodity that

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Speaker 9: goes under noticed, and frankly, it's what protects us because

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Speaker 9: the best deterrent we have from countries like North Korea, China,

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Speaker 9: Russia being even more aggressive than they are is our

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Speaker 9: friends and allies around the world we're willing to help

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Speaker 9: us secure peace. So absolutely is part of the message.

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Speaker 9: And I think that it's something that we don't probably

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Speaker 9: talk about enough, you know, in the United States. And

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Speaker 9: let me just say too, in twenty seventeen, Vladimir Caramusa

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Speaker 9: was poisoned by Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump did nothing

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Speaker 9: in retribution to Vladimir Putin for that act. So regardless

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Speaker 9: of what he said today about how tough he could

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Speaker 9: be on Vladim or Putin, he let him get away

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Speaker 9: with these kinds of acts of aggression, attack, in some

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Speaker 9: cases murder without much pushback at all.

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Speaker 2: Little reality check from Rick and Jeanie here. You know, Genie,

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Speaker 2: I'll bring our listeners and viewers in on a little

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Speaker 2: behind the scenes We were supposed to be talking about

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump right now at the NABJ and you know,

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Speaker 2: we're going to have time to get to that, because

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Speaker 2: that too, was a remarkable moment on the campaign trail yesterday.

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Speaker 2: But isn't it amazing that again, in this twelve minute

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Speaker 2: long news cycle that we're in. Our attention is moved

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Speaker 2: by a major development, and in this case, something that transcends,

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Speaker 2: I think, in importance to a lot of the bickering

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Speaker 2: that we see and hear on the campaign trail. And

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Speaker 2: I don't mean that in any specific reference to some

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Speaker 2: of the things that have been said. But isn't it

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Speaker 2: incredible how our attention comes away once again from Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump and moves back to what's happening in the real world.

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Speaker 2: And in this case, you tell me it benefit to

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Speaker 2: the Democrats.

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Speaker 7: You know, I think a benefit to Joe Biden's legacy.

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Speaker 7: I think, obviously most importantly a benefit to these families,

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Speaker 7: to the American public. But I also think there are

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Speaker 7: real serious policy considerations for the United States government here,

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Speaker 7: Republican Democrats, all of us alike, which is, there has

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Speaker 7: been a rise in state hostage taking, state imprisonments. We've

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Speaker 7: seen that in Israel. I mean not Israel. We've seen

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Speaker 7: that in Russia. Rather, we've seen it in Iran. We've

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Speaker 7: seen it around the world. Those numbers are rising. We

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Speaker 7: obviously still have prisoners captured by Hamas who are still

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Speaker 7: there since October seventh, with very little understanding of their health,

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Speaker 7: their well being, their status. So I do think the

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Speaker 7: US government has to have a serious policy consideration here.

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Speaker 8: How do you move forward and ensure deals.

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Speaker 7: Like this don't come at the you know, endangering all

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Speaker 7: of us by you know, making us all more vulnerable

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Speaker 7: as we go around the world. Number one? And number two,

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Speaker 7: how do you create a cost for these states who

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Speaker 7: are taking innocent Americans around the world and holding them

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Speaker 7: prisoner in exchange for something like this. That's a serious

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Speaker 7: consideration for all of us, regardless of party.

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Speaker 2: Rick Does this help Democrats in their association with success

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Speaker 2: and foreign policy broadly? Or is this a Joe Biden's story.

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Speaker 9: I think the rising tide carries all the boats. I

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Speaker 9: think that this shows competency, which has been a foreign

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Speaker 9: policy national security issue within the Biden administration. Obviously, it's

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Speaker 9: been an issue around other things like the economy. If

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Speaker 9: the economy improves, the ticket improves. Right, If the view

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Speaker 9: on national security improves, it helps the ticket. I think

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Speaker 9: that it is the kind of thing that for sure

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Speaker 9: will help Imblouise and Joe Biden's legacy. But I do

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Speaker 9: think there is a competency check today that will enhance

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Speaker 9: Vice President Harris's campaign prospects.

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Speaker 2: You know, we learned, and I'm not sure we've had

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Speaker 2: a chance to talk about it yet, that Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: is going to headline the first night at the Democratic

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Speaker 2: National Convention. We've had a couple of conversations about what

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Speaker 2: are they going to do with the president at Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris's convention?

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Speaker 5: Now?

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Speaker 2: What night did they have him introduced her? I think

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Speaker 2: some have suggested they try to keep him as far

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Speaker 2: away from her as possible. And we now know it's

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Speaker 2: a primetime slot on Night one, when we can probably

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Speaker 2: all agree that the fewest number of people are watching.

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Speaker 2: But this is the kind of tape we're going to see,

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Speaker 2: right Genie, Yeah, I think.

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Speaker 7: So, We're going to see the greatest hits of Joe Biden.

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Speaker 7: It's going to be exciting because I get to be

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Speaker 7: there with you and Rick and Kayley.

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Speaker 8: And everybody else. I am looking forward to it.

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Speaker 7: Maybe the Resident sits down with you and Keiley and

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Speaker 7: has a long shout about his legacy.

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Speaker 2: All the questions we would ask, Rick, would you've put

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden on Monday night at your convention? Is that

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Speaker 2: good placement?

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Speaker 9: You know, it's a unique situation because not only is

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Speaker 9: he the sitting president and he's he's unpopular, so that creates,

436
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 9: you know, different conflicts. But he actually, up until ten

437
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 9: days ago, was the candidate who was nominated by you know,

438
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 9: the delegate. We're going to be nominated by the delegates

439
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 9: at this convention. So I think you have to give

440
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 9: the guy a break and give him a slot and

441
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 9: let him knock himself out. He he's got a story

442
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 9: to tell about his administration, and you know, for the

443
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 9: Monday night of a convention, I think I think it's

444
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 9: almost mandatory, but you know, they run the risk of

445
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 9: putting an intensely unpopular elected official in front of the

446
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 9: American public extolling their virtues.

447
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 2: Of course, Rick Davis had a deal with the I

448
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: don't know if it's a similar situation, but a whole

449
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 2: different president at his convention. Rick Davis and Gendie Shanzino

450
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: our signature panel with us back in hour two, we're

451
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,719
Speaker 2: going to explore this breaking story about the prisoner swap

452
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 2: a lot more. Kaylee will join us and we'll talk

453
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 2: again about the latest on the campaign trail. Donald Trump

454
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: doubling down on the attacks, in some cases racial attacks

455
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: against Kamala Harris will have more of it ahead only

456
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg.

457
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

458
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo car Play

459
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

460
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

461
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

462
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 10: Nearly twenty four hours ago, we were all captivated watching

463
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 10: the screen as Donald Trump took part in a mediated

464
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 10: conversation at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in

465
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 10: Chicago and made a few remarks that stood out. But

466
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 10: of course, let's remind you of the big one.

467
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 11: I've known her a long time, indirectly, not directly very much,

468
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,239
Speaker 11: and she was always of Indian heritage, and she was

469
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 11: only promoting Indian heritage. I didn't know she was black

470
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 11: until a number of years ago when she happened to

471
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 11: turn black. And now she wants to be known as black,

472
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 11: So I don't know is she Indian or is she black?

473
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 2: That was yesterday, and we had a conversation a short

474
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 2: time later with the congressman from Missouri, Emmanuel Cleaver, a Democrat,

475
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 2: of course, who was once chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

476
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 2: His reaction.

477
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 12: We are in a really awful situation. I mean what

478
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 12: the President said, and I don't think he gets and

479
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 12: I hope somebody close to him will explain it. It

480
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 12: was offensive, it was racially raunchy, and it was not

481
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 12: becoming of a head of state.

482
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: Moved forward a couple of hours and Donald Trump doubles

483
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: down on truth social quote crazy Kamala is saying she's Indian,

484
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,959
Speaker 2: not black. This is a big deal. Stone cold phony

485
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: unquote JD Vance, his running mate on the stump last night,

486
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 2: referring to Kamala Harris as a phony having a chameleon

487
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: like nature. And so there are many questions about where

488
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: this rhetoric is going and exactly how Kamala Harris should

489
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 2: respond to it, what it means about the political discourse

490
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 2: in this country. And we're joined right now by a

491
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 2: Democratic Member of Congress from the important swing state of Wisconsin.

492
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: Gwen Moore is with us from Wisconsin's fourth district in Congresswoman,

493
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 2: I want to welcome you back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

494
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 2: What do you make of this conversation in twenty twenty four.

495
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me. You know, I think to

496
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 13: be fair to Donald Trump with the black journalists. It

497
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 13: was a hard crowd, and to be fair to the journalists,

498
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 13: they had a very hard respondent. I think Donald Trump,

499
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 13: we have to give him credit for really hitting all

500
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 13: of his messaging points to keep people in fear of

501
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 13: losing their jobs because of you know, the immigrants or

502
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 13: overrunning the border and taking black jobs, and that they

503
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 13: are overrunning the borders and their criminals and rapists, that

504
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 13: they're killing people a real exaggeration. And I wish this,

505
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 13: you know, fact check in real time had been the

506
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 13: journalists interrupting him because people believe that, and I think

507
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 13: fear and xenophobia and fear of white people being overrun

508
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 13: by others. He was able to stay on message despite

509
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 13: the very tough crowd that he was talking with, and

510
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 13: of course the black journalists themselves was scratching their heads

511
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 13: wondering why they had even invited him so well, certainly,

512
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 13: I think it changed anybody's minds either way.

513
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 10: Well, certainly congressom when we saw things get combative a

514
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 10: few times, specifically with Rachel Scott of ABC, who did

515
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 10: try to fact check the former president at multiple times

516
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 10: throughout the conversation, and it actually did seem that. What

517
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 10: set the whole thing off was her introductory question, in

518
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 10: which she repeated a number of statements around black individuals

519
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 10: black journalists that Donald Trump had made and asked him, essentially,

520
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 10: why someone considering a black voter considering whether or not

521
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 10: to cast that vote for him in November, should make

522
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 10: of that kind of rhetoric. What would you tell a

523
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 10: black voter considering whether or not to vote for Donald

524
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 10: Trump or instead to choose Kamala Harris.

525
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 5: Well, you know.

526
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 9: What the black journalists were trying to demonstrate.

527
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 13: Just listen to what he says. And you know, it

528
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 13: has to me scratching my head as to why any

529
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 13: black person would vote for him, except for those people

530
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 13: who are exceptionally wealthy, or except for those rappers and

531
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 13: so on who expect to be pardoned. But it's a curiosity.

532
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 13: It's a curiosity why he even accepted the invitation to come.

533
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 13: You have to give him credit for showing up for

534
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 13: that very tough crowd. But again, I don't think anybody's

535
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 13: minds were changed, and I think black voters who saw

536
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 13: it probably that increased their resolve to vote for Kamala Harris.

537
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: I'm struck by your approach here a congresswoman. I'm trying

538
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: to follow what you're saying as closely as I can.

539
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: I don't know if this is a little bit of

540
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: reverse psychology, but are you giving Donald Trump credit for

541
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 2: having continuity in being racist?

542
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 6: Yeah?

543
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 13: Absolutely, I think that he sounded like a true believer

544
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 13: that you know that, you know, Mexicans and other people,

545
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 13: criminals were overrunning the border and taking black jobs. I

546
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 13: doubt that they were taking any of the black journalist's

547
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 13: jobs that were sitting in that room. But he did

548
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 13: have a huge platform for scaring other black people who

549
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 13: may be marginalized and inappropriately blame people who crossed the border.

550
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 13: I mean, he he had message discipline, He never got

551
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 13: off of his his big hits. He even even even

552
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 13: when he said that Kamala, you know, he didn't realize

553
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 13: she was black until recently. She was pretending to not

554
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 13: be black. Even then, he was sort of appealing to

555
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 13: some segment of the black community who may not feel

556
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 13: like she's black enough. Even though she went to Howard University,

557
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 13: had a black father. She joined the first black sorority

558
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 13: installed in the United States. You know people, you know,

559
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 13: some black people who might have some very nationalistic views

560
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 13: about what a black person ought to look like and

561
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 13: be like and sound like. So he's stuck with the

562
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 13: grievance message. He's stuck with the other's message. He's stuck

563
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 13: with the victimhood message, and that, unfortunately has appeal to

564
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 13: some people. I do think he was talking to his supporters.

565
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 13: His supporters might have been gleeful about him pushing back

566
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 13: against these black women and talking over.

567
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 4: Them, and I'm sure that they.

568
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,719
Speaker 13: Were very pleased with his performance.

569
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 10: Okay, so that's Donald Trump's message, Congressman. I also would

570
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 10: like to ask you about the message the vice president

571
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 10: could be bringing next week when she's planning to visit

572
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 10: your home state of Wisconsin alongside her vice presidential peck,

573
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 10: whomever that may be. What Massa wins Wisconsin for her?

574
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 10: And is there a vice presidential pick that you think

575
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 10: would be most likely to aid her in that effort

576
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 10: in Wisconsin?

577
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 13: You know, I think Wisconsin is very willing and able

578
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 13: statewide to elect a Democrat to the presidency. I think

579
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 13: we have had enough of Donald Trump and even the Republicans,

580
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 13: and we have seen the performance in so called Republican

581
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 13: areas improve for Democrats statewide. So I do think that

582
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 13: Kamala with whoever she picks, is going to be welcomed

583
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 13: in Wisconsin. You know, there's a lot of talk back

584
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,919
Speaker 13: and forth about who she ought to pick. I hope

585
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 13: she picks someone with whom she has a good rapport,

586
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 13: someone that she trusts, somebody that shares her vision. And

587
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 13: I think there are a lot of great candidates of

588
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 13: whom we've heard discussed over the networks in the past

589
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 13: few days. I think any one of them would do

590
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,879
Speaker 13: would be very welcomed in Wisconsin.

591
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 10: All right, well, we should find out within the next

592
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 10: few days. Congressoman, thank you so much for joining us

593
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 10: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We always appreciate your time.

594
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 10: That is Congressoman Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, thank you. And

595
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 10: let's turn back now in our final moments with our

596
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 10: political panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors

597
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 10: are still with us. So, Genie, I would love to

598
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 10: just get your reaction to what we just heard from

599
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 10: Congresswoman more this idea that Donald Trump may have been

600
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 10: racist yesterday, but at least he was consistent and disciplined

601
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 10: about that message.

602
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 8: What do you think, Yeah, I was surprised to hear that.

603
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 7: You know, I think you know my impression and I

604
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 7: would assume the representative might agree with this is it

605
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 7: was the old Donald Trump we've all gotten used to.

606
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 7: There was nothing new there. He's struggling in the polls.

607
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 7: He's struggling to find a way to go after the

608
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 7: Democrats and Kamala Harris in particular, and he needed to

609
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 7: get the news back on him, and so he did

610
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 7: as typical you know, whether it's birtherism or attacking somebody.

611
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 8: He did that yesterday and so there was nothing new.

612
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 7: In fact, Keiley, I kept thinking, I think the Democrats

613
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 7: should have adopt the new slogan, which is it's not

614
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,240
Speaker 7: twenty sixteen anymore.

615
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 8: This is old.

616
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 7: We need something new from him and they're not getting it.

617
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 7: So that was my take on it.

618
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 2: Rick I mentioned what Donald Trump posted on truth Social

619
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 2: after he made the remarks at the NABJ crazy Kamala

620
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 2: is saying she's Indian not black. This is a big deal,

621
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,320
Speaker 2: stone cold phony. Is this the path to losing the election?

622
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 9: You know, look, I know there are a lot of Republicans.

623
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 9: John Thune mentioned this, These are inappropriate comments, and we

624
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 9: ought to be talking about the issues that Republicans have

625
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 9: an advantage on the economy, the border, and why he

626
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 9: would go on a show like that which would be

627
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 9: seen by a lot of black votes and be disparaging

628
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 9: of someone's you know, ethnic background, regardless of how you

629
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 9: call it, is phenomenal to me. And of course he

630
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 9: uses the same trope that well, I barely know her

631
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 9: except that he wrote a campaign contribution to her when

632
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 9: she was a Democrat as a black candidate, and so

633
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 9: I think he knows a lot more than he leads

634
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 9: on it. And so yeah, I think the Republican Party

635
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 9: would rather him be talking about the issues of the

636
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 9: day that advantaged the campaign, then going down this sort

637
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 9: of rabbit hole on frankly kind of reverse woke cultural

638
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 9: battles that you know, nobody thinks is actually as irrelevant

639
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 9: today as it was maybe back in twenty sixteen.

640
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 2: Reverse woke. That's a good one, that's a new one.

641
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 2: Even Senator Tommy Tuberville didn't want anything to do with this.

642
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 2: The coach from Alabama, quote, I ain't getting involved in that.

643
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,720
Speaker 2: Let him talk about what he wants to talk about

644
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 2: on quote. That's where we are in American politics today. Kayleie,

645
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: but I will point everyone back to the remarkable news

646
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 2: that we started this hour with, and that is the

647
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 2: release of four Americans as part of a huge prisoner

648
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 2: swap with Russia that also happened today.

649
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 10: Yeah, and as the President said, good news and especially

650
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 10: good news for the families that were with him at

651
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 10: the White House. So a remarkable day in Washington. We're

652
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 10: glad to spend some of it, as always with our

653
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 10: political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. Thank you both

654
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 10: so much, and we'll have more ahead here on Bloomberg

655
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 10: TV and Radio.

656
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

657
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

658
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 1: Rounoo with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

659
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

660
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

661
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 10: Thanks for joining us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg

662
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 10: TV and Radio, where today we've been talking a lot

663
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 10: about some pretty momentous news, a prisoner exchange with Russia

664
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 10: involving dozens of individuals, including four Americans who had been

665
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 10: detained who are now on their way home. That includes

666
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 10: journalists also Kimasheva, Evan Gerskovich, and of course former US

667
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 10: Marine Paul Whelan. We're just hearing now from US National

668
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 10: Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who is speaking to reporters. He

669
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 10: says that Evan and Paul are expected back on American

670
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 10: soil tonight. He says that President Biden and Vice President

671
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris will greet them as after they were released

672
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 10: in this swap. But also some interesting news from Jake

673
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 10: Sullivan when it pertains to the other thing we're watching,

674
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 10: which is escalating tensions in the Middle East. Joe Jake

675
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 10: Sullivan says that President Biden will be speaking with Israeli

676
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 10: Prime Minister Benjamin et Niyahu later.

677
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 2: Today, once again finding himself, Joe Biden, finding himself in

678
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: a position to call for calm and a proportionate response,

679
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 2: in this case coming from Iran. Kayleie, the IDF, we're told,

680
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 2: is bracing for revenge right now, gaming out options on

681
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: what might come back to is from Iran following the

682
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 2: strike that killed the political leader of Hamas in Tehran itself.

683
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,800
Speaker 2: They have vowed revenge. It's not a question of whether

684
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: this will happen but to what extent it will happen?

685
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 2: And we want to talk to Kelly Grico about this

686
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 2: among some of the other geopolitical stories that we're following.

687
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 2: F sixteen's have just started arriving in Ukraine, for instance,

688
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,280
Speaker 2: Kelly senior fellow at the Stimpson Centers Reimagining US Grand

689
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: Strategy Program. And it's great to have you back. Kelly.

690
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,919
Speaker 2: You talked to us back in April about the risk

691
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 2: of a wider regional conflict when Israel was bracing at

692
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 2: that point for retaliation once again from Iran. Will the

693
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 2: US and Israel be able to diffuse it like they

694
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: did back in April.

695
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 14: Well, thank you for having me. You know, certainly deja

696
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 14: vu all over again. You know, this is we're rolling

697
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 14: the dice again. I think there are a couple of things.

698
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,280
Speaker 14: This is similar in some ways to what happened in April,

699
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 14: that we're bracing for another attack, likely an attack directly

700
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 14: on Israel, But there are some really important differences that

701
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 14: make me more concerned about being able to manage it.

702
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 14: One is that from Iran's perspective, this is a massive

703
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 14: deterrence failure. They had hoped when they launched the April

704
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 14: attack in response to when Israel contected strikes against an

705
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 14: embassy compound, killing some Iranian senior commanders.

706
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 4: They had hoped that that massive three hundred.

707
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 14: You know, drones missile farage would act as a deterrent,

708
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:33,760
Speaker 14: preventing Israel from doing something else, particularly something against Iran directly,

709
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 14: and that hasn't worked, So they're going to feel a

710
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 14: need to do something more escalatory to send that signal,

711
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 14: that message to deter Iran moving forward, and of course

712
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 14: that makes this very dangerous. And then we add to

713
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,919
Speaker 14: it the humiliate piece for Iran. But this happened right

714
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 14: in Tehran and you know, the senior government they're celebrating

715
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 14: an inauguration, and that's that's a dangerous combination.

716
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 10: Well, so, Kelly, if we are comparing this moment to

717
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 10: what we saw back in April, there was also a

718
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,240
Speaker 10: narrative after that failed attack that Iran sent those drones

719
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 10: and missiles pretty much all intercepted by Israel, the US

720
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 10: and other allies, that it showed a failure on the

721
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 10: part of Iran. What else does Iran potentially have to

722
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 10: throw at Israel? Hill here have we seen the full

723
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 10: extent of their capability.

724
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I would say two things.

725
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,800
Speaker 14: I think we should be cautious about what happened in April, because,

726
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 14: as someone who studies airpower really closely, that looked a

727
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 14: lot like what I would call operational theater.

728
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 4: If they were serious.

729
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:36,359
Speaker 14: About penetrating Israeli airspace air defenses, you do not send

730
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 14: your slowest drones first alerting us that we have a

731
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 14: four hour six hour, you know, notification that there's an

732
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 14: attack starting, right, they would have started with ballistic missiles.

733
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 14: They did quite the opposite, starting with the slowest thing.

734
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 14: And so I think they were actually tending to a

735
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 14: large degree for these things to be intercepted, sort of

736
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 14: a display of force. I don't know if we're going

737
00:42:57,800 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 14: to see that this time. This might be, you know,

738
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 14: a much more serious, sophisticated attack that's harder to defend against.

739
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 14: And then I think we add to that, which is,

740
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 14: you know, as you're saying, which is, there's other options here.

741
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,280
Speaker 4: This was calibrated last time.

742
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 14: They did not involve proxy actors, whether that's in Lebanon

743
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 14: or Syria or Yemen. So that's another option as well.

744
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 14: It could be a more sophisticated attack, it could be

745
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 14: a larger coordinated attack with proxies in the region.

746
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:29,760
Speaker 2: Well, we see the US and allies providing the same

747
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 2: defense role that we saw last time, actually knocking missiles

748
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 2: out of the air on behalf of Israel.

749
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 14: Yeah, so, I mean yesterday Secretary Austin was asked about

750
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 14: and he said that we would again stand by Israel

751
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 14: and defended You know, it sounds like the United States

752
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 14: is prepared to do that again. I do think there

753
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,399
Speaker 14: are real questions though about whether we'll see the same

754
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 14: kind of coordination we saw last time with Saudi Arabia

755
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 14: and Jordan in particular that allowed us to intercept things

756
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,720
Speaker 14: in their airspace. You know, they've all sent out statements

757
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 14: condemning Israel's actions. I think this makes it harder for

758
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 14: them to repeat that from last time. And the other

759
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 14: thing I just add is this is very expensive for US,

760
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 14: the United States when we're using these kinds of interceptor

761
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 14: missiles that we really need in other theaters, whether it's

762
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,399
Speaker 14: Ukraine or it's the Endo Pacific. So I think there's

763
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 14: a question too, just about how many more times are

764
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 14: we going to actually be.

765
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:24,720
Speaker 4: Able to do this in support of Israel.

766
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,439
Speaker 10: Well, which gets us back to our own defense industrial base,

767
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 10: which was so much the question in the debate over

768
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 10: aid for Ukraine, and certainly we've even heard the likes

769
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 10: of Vice presidential nominee on the Republican side, JD. Vance,

770
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 10: talking about how the US should be reserving more of

771
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 10: its ammunitions and power for other areas other than Ukraine.

772
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 10: On that subject though Kelly, of course, in addition to

773
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 10: the theater we're talking about in the Middle East, there's

774
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 10: still the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russian We got

775
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 10: the news yesterday that the first round of F sixteen

776
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 10: deliveries has made it to Ukraine from NATO allies. How

777
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 10: quickly will those jets make a difference?

778
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think they're going to make much

779
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 4: of a difference, and.

780
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 14: That's we know that that they're probably about six or

781
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 14: so pilots that are graduating this summer. By the end

782
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 14: of the year, it'll be about twenty, and usually it's

783
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 14: two pilots per aircraft is sort of the rule of thumbs,

784
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 14: So maybe about ten aircraft a most will be operating

785
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 14: by the end of the year.

786
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 4: It's a fairly small number.

787
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 14: But I also just think that the F sixteen capabilities

788
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 14: you see the Ukrainians kind of walking back some of

789
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 14: their earlier statements about how impactful these would be, that

790
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 14: they're not going to be able to use these to

791
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 14: sort of gain air superiority and be able to, you know,

792
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 14: support ground troops on the ground close to the front

793
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 14: lines because of Russian air defenses.

794
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 4: So it's going to be really limited to.

795
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 14: More of an air defense role, perhaps intercepting some cruise

796
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 14: missiles and drones if they're able to successfully do that. So,

797
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 14: you know, it's expensive these F sixteens, but the actual

798
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 14: impact on the back field, I fear will be quite limited.

799
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 2: I don't know if my eyes are right, Kelly, but

800
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 2: for our listeners on Bloomberg Radio, that appears to be

801
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 2: a picture of a spitfire you have framed behind you

802
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 2: there in your office, and of course the legendary aircraft

803
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 2: that helped to win the Battle of Britain. What then

804
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: is Ukraine's spitfire? If not these.

805
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 14: You have a very good eye, first of all, because

806
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 14: you are corrects the spitfire, I would say it's mobile

807
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 14: ground based air defenses. You know, things like the Patriot,

808
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 14: you know, the nay Sands that we've sent. Those have

809
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 14: been the critical for them and keeping back most of

810
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 14: Russia's air force at bay because if you move them

811
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 14: and they can shoot and they can scoop. Of course,

812
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 14: the challenge is we only have so many interceptor missiles.

813
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 14: We were just talking about this in reference to Israel.

814
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 14: So there is some idea that perhaps the S sixteens

815
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 14: can help to make a little bit of that doing

816
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 14: it in an air to air roll.

817
00:46:58,120 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 4: It's a very expensive way to do that.

818
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 14: But it's really been these mobile ground based air defenses,

819
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 14: and I would just say, looking at how important they

820
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 14: have been, and they've been a challenge for the United

821
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 14: States to find these kinds of things in other war

822
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 14: zones and locate them and destroy them. We should be

823
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 14: thinking about this. We don't have enough clearly on the

824
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 14: United States side, getting back to the defense industrial base,

825
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 14: and we really need to start making smart investments prioritizing

826
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 14: air and missile defense.

827
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 10: How long does it take for those investments to actually

828
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 10: come to fruition though, Kelly, what kind of timeline realistically

829
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 10: are we considering here and what kind of resources?

830
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean this is a real concern, right, This

831
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 14: this is not this is we're talking multi years. The

832
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 14: number of you know, they're trying right now for the Patriot,

833
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 14: for example, to increase the number of interceptors at around

834
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 14: five hundred, maybe to get to seven hundred and fifty.

835
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 14: But already they're starting to find even with that goal,

836
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:56,280
Speaker 14: things that are they're not supply shortages like very particular parts,

837
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 14: they're shortages. And you know, Japan was trying to ramp

838
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 14: up some of the missile product and the same thing,

839
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 14: like they can't do it because of a certain part

840
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,720
Speaker 14: having a shortage. And so there are all these bottlenecks

841
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 14: in the defense industrial base, all all the components and

842
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 14: not just the stumbling of the part itself. And so

843
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 14: this is really a multi year effort to figure out

844
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 14: how to resolve this and where to prioritize.

845
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 4: Those efforts as well.

846
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 14: If where are the central areas that we should really

847
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 14: be trying to ramp up the defense industrial base? And

848
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 14: I would just argue that air and missile defense is

849
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 14: certainly one of those top priority areas.

850
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 2: Kelly, I just want to get back to where we

851
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 2: started here before we let you go. And that's of

852
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 2: course the situation in Israel. What's the critical window here?

853
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 2: Do you give this the weekend to resolve when will

854
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: we see something.

855
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 14: Yeah, so I think there's a likelihood we could see

856
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 14: it this weekend. I think the longer this gets it

857
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 14: gets delayed, the better. The one concern that I have

858
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 14: is I feel like the bide A demonstration's response has

859
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 14: been a bit sluggish to these events. And I don't

860
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 14: know if it's because of the swap of prisoners with

861
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 14: Russia that all. A lot of the team was focused

862
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 14: on that, but you know, we haven't seen As far

863
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 14: as I know, there is no one's been sent to

864
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:09,799
Speaker 14: the region to try to, you know, do shuttle diplomacy

865
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 14: like last time, and so I'm hoping, you know, very

866
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:14,399
Speaker 14: quickly we're going to see some of that that might

867
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 14: even buy us sometime before israel I ran response, But

868
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 14: it could be as soon as this weekend.

869
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:24,359
Speaker 10: Well, we do know. As I mentioned at the top

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Speaker 10: of this segment, Jake Sullivan says President Biden will be

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Speaker 10: speaking with Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo. Is that

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Speaker 10: likely to be an advice call, Kelly or is that

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Speaker 10: a reassurance call that the US will be there for

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Speaker 10: Israel whatever comes its way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like it should probably be a grievance

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00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 4: call first. You know perspective.

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Speaker 14: I mean, he's been working and his team has been

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Speaker 14: working to try to get a ceasefire to release hostages,

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00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 14: and it seems to have been very, very close, and

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00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 14: in fact, Israel seems to be the party that pulled

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Speaker 14: back away from it. And of course Israel has now

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Speaker 14: effectively killed one of the people that was involved in

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Speaker 14: the negotiations, and so I think this is going to

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Speaker 14: be really hard to get a ceasefire deal.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's something the ministration really wanted.

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Speaker 14: And now not only is there not a seaspire, probably,

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Speaker 14: but we're back at the real danger of a regional war.

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Speaker 14: And I can't imagine the Biden administration is particularly happy.

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Speaker 14: But they've also tied themselves so closely to Natanahu that

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Speaker 14: they don't really have as much of a choice but

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Speaker 14: to support him. And it seems like that is something

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Speaker 14: bidenminstration is prepared to do, including defending with US military power.

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Speaker 10: All Right, Kelly Grigo, sobering conversation, But thank you so

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Speaker 10: much as always for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.