1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:09,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis 3 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner. Join us each day for the 4 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 7 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. 8 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 3: Donald Trump has been found guilty on all thirty four 9 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 3: felon accounts. He says he's a political prisoner. This returning 10 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,279 Speaker 3: Alvin Bragg says the system work just the way it 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 3: does in all criminal trials. Joining us here is Bloomberg's 12 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 3: Patricia Hurtado, Manhattan Federal Courthouse and Legal Enterprise reporter for Bloomberg. 13 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 3: Patricia long Day, thank you so much for joining us. 14 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 3: This is a historic day. Let's kind of go through it. 15 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: So the jury wanted some clarifications starting this morning. It 16 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: appears at just as Justice Marshawn was ready to send 17 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 3: them home for the day, they informed him they had 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 3: a verdict. Was this a surprise. 19 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: It was a surprise. 20 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 4: Everyone, even facts in my colleagues had already tweeted out, 21 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 4: Oh no, jury verdict today Dubai, and then all of 22 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 4: a sudden, the jury had been very quiet all day long, 23 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 4: but yesterday they asked her some testimony, which was about 24 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 4: the Trump Tower meeting where Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 4: and fixer, said that you know, this is the deal 26 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 4: was hatched to buy catch and Kilsky, and Trump was 27 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 4: there supposedly with David Pecker, the publisher of the National Inquirer, 28 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 4: as well as Michael Cohen and Todd Blanche had said 29 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 4: yesterday I'm sorry, and Tuesday and closing statement that Cohen 30 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 4: had completely contradicted Pecker. I actually went back and looked 31 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 4: at the testimony, and then we heard the read back 32 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 4: this morning, and then you realized that that actually wasn't 33 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 4: necessarily the case. I kind of wondered what was going 34 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 4: to happen, but I thought, okay, another day, we can 35 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 4: all take a big breath, and then for that note 36 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 4: to come in, we didn't. There's a buzzer in the courtroom. 37 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 4: It's like one of those old financial fashioned doorbells, and 38 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 4: that has been going off every time the jury had 39 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 4: a verdict. But then all of a sudden, the judge goes, 40 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 4: we have an open jury, they have a verdict, the 41 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,119 Speaker 4: jury wants fifty five minutes to fill it out. 42 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it looks very much. I mean, he went 43 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 3: back and looked through that and you're awfully good. So 44 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 3: it looks like the jury was really paying attention and 45 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 3: wanted that question answered, and that's what it wanted. Now, 46 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 3: the defense started to make arguments toward a potential of appealing, 47 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 3: at least that's what I'm hearing lay on the groundwork. Anyway, 48 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 3: is that fair and if so, how will that work? 49 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 4: Well, Todd Blanche, Trump's lead lawyer already made that request. 50 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 5: He said that. 51 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 4: Michael Cohen's testimony was unbelievable, he's a liar, and therefore 52 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 4: the conviction should be overturned. And Rashaun gave short notice 53 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 4: to that lunch and basically said absolutely denied. So, I 54 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 4: mean he technically under New York state law. I've talked 55 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 4: to a couple of criminal defense layers. I know under 56 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 4: state law, the defendant cannot appeal until there's sentence, and 57 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 4: that's tentatively set for July eleventh at this point, so 58 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 4: he can't start launching his appeal formally until then. He 59 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 4: made a shot today, but that was rejected. He can 60 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 4: try to ask if Manhattan Appeals Court and maybe the 61 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 4: state's highest court and maybe even the Supreme Court away. 62 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 4: And for right now he's in the limbo of waiting 63 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 4: to be sentenced by Judge Marshawn. 64 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, so sentencing, as you say, July eleventh, tentatively, Trump 65 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 3: is a former president. There's a lot to consider for 66 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 3: the judge. On the other hand, Judge Marshawn said that 67 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 3: he will treat him like any other like any other convict, 68 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 3: and like any other trials. So what is the president 69 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 3: of prior cases, jail time, probation, Well, you know. 70 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 4: You have one inkling of what could happen. I mean, 71 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 4: many people have speculated that Trump is the first time 72 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 4: offender and for his elect office might get an easier 73 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 4: time from the judge that you know, he might get 74 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 4: probation or house arrests or a split a sentence where 75 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 4: he has to do six months of or three months 76 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 4: in a facility of our home detention. 77 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 5: Right. 78 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 4: But you know, one thing, President, we all have to 79 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 4: kind of remind herself off. Trump's former CFO at the 80 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 4: Trump Org is Alan Weifelberg, pretty much the same age 81 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: as as Trump, and he was sent to Riker's Island 82 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 4: for five months after he'sled guilty to like thirteen felonies, 83 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 4: and they were also white collar cases crimes, So I 84 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 4: think you have to kind of remember. And also, you 85 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 4: know what the jury voted today and found was that 86 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 4: Trump basically robbed voters of the election and grigged it 87 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 4: so that he could hide this terrible story and about 88 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 4: having an affair with a porn star and paying her silence. 89 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 4: So I mean that might be something he is. He's 90 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 4: an elected official and he's running for re elections, But 91 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 4: then again, how did he get elected if this is 92 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 4: what the jury's verdict is. 93 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, well that's what the case was. Was was above 94 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: as you well know. Yeah, now as I understand it, 95 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 3: maximum four years. Now is that on each individual account 96 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 3: or could it be thirty four times for or could 97 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,239 Speaker 3: they run concurrent or do we have any inkling? 98 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, it would probably most of the lawyers I've talked 99 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 4: you said it is a first time a sender who 100 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 4: in the seventies, it would be uh, you know, concurrent 101 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 4: and it's one in a third to four. And I 102 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 4: know some of my editors have been reflexed under the 103 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 4: New York state court system, but some people actually get 104 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 4: sentenced to one in a third to four years and 105 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 4: then they do the minimum of that. So it's unclear. 106 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 4: You know, they get a discount for good behavior if 107 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 4: their sense at prison or some kind of incarceration. So 108 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 4: it's unclear whether Judge Marshawn may try to broker some 109 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 4: kind of creative option for Trump. 110 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 3: Do we have any idea at all whether we will 111 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 3: hear from jurors. In some cases they want to come forward, 112 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 3: in other cases they want to stay silent. My inclination 113 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 3: would be that they were going to want to stay 114 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 3: stay behind the scenes for a variety of reasons on 115 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 3: this Have we heard anything now? 116 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 4: I was telling our colleagues June Grasso this earlier. I'm 117 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 4: always shocked when I was shocked earlier in this trial 118 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,679 Speaker 4: when they were doing jury selection, several jurors, potential jurors 119 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 4: that expressed concern if they're safety and then they walked 120 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 4: out the courtroom front door and walked out and gave 121 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 4: interviews live on talent national network television. So I was 122 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 4: always like, really, you want to get excused because you're 123 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 4: afraid of Now you're on national television, So how afraid, 124 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 4: are you. It's unclear. The judge did warn them that, 125 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,039 Speaker 4: you know, to be careful, that they could they could 126 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 4: speak if they wanted. And I'm sure the dance of 127 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 4: the Seven Vales will be done soon by many of 128 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 4: the producers and goers who want to get these featurs 129 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 4: on and hear the whole story. I mean, we had 130 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 4: asked on part of the media coalition of reporters who 131 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 4: represents the press corps on this case, and we had 132 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 4: asked the judge to allow us to interview because of 133 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 4: the historic nature of this case. We asked them for 134 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 4: a permission to interview the prospective any jurors who wanted 135 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 4: to talk in the safe space of a courtroom, and 136 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 4: we would interview them and that way no one would 137 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 4: chase them. And that was soundly rejected. So now they 138 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 4: may be hounded. 139 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Patricia, you are awesome. It's been a long day. 140 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 3: We're all witness to history, aren't we. 141 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 4: Yes, we are all right. 142 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 3: We appreciate your time so much. Bloomberg's Patricia Hurtado, Manhattan 143 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 3: Federal Courthouse, Legal Enterprise reporter. 144 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 4: Well. 145 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: Joining us now on the program is Jeremy Rosenthal, trial 146 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 2: attorney Jeremy what it really was an election interference case, 147 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 2: not a hush money trial. But I'm curious whether you 148 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 2: think people will actually see it that way. 149 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 5: I don't know how people are going to view it. 150 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 5: I mean, we're all sort of in this world where 151 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 5: I think everybody's sort of made their mind up about everything. Right, 152 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 5: There is a little bit of irony here, right that 153 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 5: the panic in this case that the prosecution laid out 154 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 5: in the beginning was that, look, the Trump campaign in 155 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 5: October of twenty sixteen was that they were going to 156 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 5: lose a presidential election. And now that we've seen eight 157 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 5: years later, this is certainly a bad news cycle for 158 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 5: their team. So it's kind of ironic that it's come 159 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 5: full circle like this to set in probably what is 160 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 5: a new round of panic for mister Trump and his 161 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 5: team trying to get elected for president the second time. 162 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 6: Well that Donald Trump says he didn't do anything wrong, 163 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 6: that suggests that the Jerry got it wrong, but the 164 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 6: evidence appears to be compelling. What's the grounds for an 165 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 6: appeal here. 166 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 5: There's not a lot. Appeals are a really hard business. 167 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 5: There's a few grounds that I think they're going to 168 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 5: focus on. One is going to be what we call 169 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 5: the jury unanimity issue, which has been there's been a 170 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 5: lot made of it in the last few days, and 171 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 5: to kind of nerd out for just the two minutes, 172 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 5: if you'll, if you'll indulge me. It's really really hard 173 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 5: to it's a difficult issue to explain. But take, for instance, 174 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 5: a driving well intoxicated case or a DUI. The jury 175 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 5: doesn't have to necessarily agree how you got drunk, and 176 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 5: they don't have to agree what signs of intoxication you're exhibiting. 177 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 5: Is your blood alcohol above the limit? Are you losing 178 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 5: the normal use of your mental or physical faculties? And 179 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 5: the jury doesn't have to agree. They just have to 180 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 5: agree that you're a drunk driver. In this case, what 181 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 5: the judge said was, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, 182 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 5: you don't have to agree how Donald Trump was covering 183 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 5: up a felony. You just have to agree that there 184 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 5: was one. In other words, six of you can agree 185 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 5: that this was covering up tax fraud, and six of 186 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 5: you can agree that this was covering up election fraud, 187 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 5: and so long as you get there, you can convict him. 188 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 5: That's what we call a unanimity issue because juries do 189 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 5: have to be unanimous under the Constitution. That can very 190 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 5: well trigger a stronger appellate issue. But even then, I 191 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 5: think it's based on some pretty well settled law. I 192 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 5: wouldn't expect an appeal here to have much. 193 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 2: Legs, so a few things will happen prior to any appeal. 194 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 2: And I'm curious what you think about whether or not 195 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 2: you know, once we get to the final judgment, and 196 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 2: once we get to the sentence, if it involves jail time, 197 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 2: whether or not you think that Donald Trump would be 198 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 2: remanded to jail. In other words, he would not be 199 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 2: out while the appeal is being prepared. Your thoughts on that. 200 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 5: I'd be fairly surprised if he went to jail first. 201 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 5: I read a report just the other day which suggested 202 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 5: that for this type of offense in this jurisdiction, about 203 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 5: one out of ten people go to jail for this charge. 204 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 5: Donald Trump is a seventy seven year old man. He's 205 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 5: got no criminal history, so you would think that he 206 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 5: would be a high candidate for probation. Also, really, he's 207 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 5: also the most secure person in the planet already, if 208 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 5: you think about it, because he's surrounded twenty four to 209 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 5: seven by government agents already the Secret Service. So he's 210 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 5: not going anywhere, and in many ways he's kind of 211 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 5: already trapped. I would anticipate that if he does see 212 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 5: any type of incarceration that it could be some kind 213 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 5: of home confinement. Even then, even on July eleventh, if 214 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 5: he does get sentenced to jail, assuming it's a moderate 215 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 5: or low sentence, he can file an appeal which will 216 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 5: abate that sentence well off into probably twenty twenty five 217 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 5: and potentially twenty twenty six. 218 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 6: One thing the judge did want about was violations of 219 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 6: gag orders. If that keeps happening, might that change the 220 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 6: picture of he's a e jail. 221 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 5: Time It could think about it like this. So we 222 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 5: had this gag order, and then we had Donald Trump, 223 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 5: who kind of does his thing where he sort of 224 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 5: kind of comes right up to the line and maybe 225 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 5: he crosses the line, and if he does, he doesn't 226 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 5: do it really severely, or he comes sort of close 227 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 5: to it. And Judge Marshawn really found himself in a 228 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 5: power struggle with this defendant, which is very very rare. 229 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 5: I mean, you've got a situation where Trump was in 230 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 5: many ways almost daring the judge to put him in jail. 231 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 5: If you put Donald Trump on probation, Judge Marshawn knows, 232 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 5: he's just signing up for more of those fights, right, 233 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 5: He's signing up for more of these I'm going to 234 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 5: violate probation. I'm going to violate, I'm going to violate. 235 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 5: I'm going to test you. So maybe the easiest way 236 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 5: to do that is just to give him ajace than 237 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 5: if he does that, Trump appeals it. If Trump wins 238 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 5: the election, then maybe it's in the Governor of New 239 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 5: York's hands to whether or not he wants to pardon 240 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 5: Trump at that point. But that's maybe how I see 241 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 5: this playing out. 242 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 2: I'll give you a chance to nerd out a little 243 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: bit more, because what was interesting was they returned the 244 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: jury returned the very very quickly, was just a day 245 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: and a half something like that. So that sort of 246 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 2: shows you that they were pretty clear on this. So 247 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 2: I'm curious from your standpoint what the prosecutors actually did 248 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 2: to simplify this case and present it what seems to 249 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 2: be so effectively. 250 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,559 Speaker 5: This is what I would call a paper cut strategy. 251 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 5: What they did was they put witness after witness after 252 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 5: witness There was twenty two witnesses in this case, twenty 253 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 5: one of whom were not Michael Cohen, and most of 254 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 5: those witness it was really difficult for Trump to get 255 00:13:54,880 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 5: a square punch off. You had the first third, if 256 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 5: you will, of the trial was setting up the motive 257 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 5: that the Trump campaign in twenty sixteen was in disarray. 258 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 5: We had the current affair tape. They were desperate. They 259 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 5: thought that this Stormy Daniel's case could be a death 260 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 5: shot to their campaign. You had the middle part of 261 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 5: their trial, which was all the money trails, and then 262 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 5: it finished up with Michael Cohen. And so it's just 263 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 5: the way that juries think. In my mind, I think 264 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 5: that juries make up their mind fairly quickly in the 265 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 5: entire process, and then they're like anybody else. If you've 266 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 5: ever dealt with a Packers fan, then you know this already. 267 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 5: It's difficult to take sense to some people, right, But 268 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 5: you get the jury sort of buying into their theory 269 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 5: somewhat early, and then it's hard to change their mind. 270 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 5: So by the time Michael Cohen takes a stand, this 271 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 5: thing has probably long since been over. So that's something 272 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 5: that I think the prosecution did a fairly effective job 273 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 5: of I think the jury is going to come back 274 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 5: and tell us that they reviewed the charges a couple 275 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 5: of times, that it was probably ten to two guilty, 276 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 5: nine to three guilty at the first straw vote, and 277 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 5: that they just kind of kept going and were able 278 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 5: to get whatever holdouts there were. Maybe it was twelve 279 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 5: to nothing and they just said, well, we have to 280 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 5: review this all because we can't come back with a 281 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 5: fifteen minute verdict. So those are the things I would 282 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 5: expect to hear from this panel. 283 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 6: Jeremy, just very quickly. And independent judiciary is a pillar 284 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 6: of democracy. And now we've got Trump casting doubts on 285 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 6: the integrity of the US legal system. Do you have 286 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 6: any broader fees? Just quickly. 287 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 5: The institutions in this country are sacred. I'm a lawyer. 288 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 5: I love what I do. I'm an advocate for my 289 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 5: profession and for the legal system. Sunshine is the best 290 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 5: disinfectant I mean, and the fact we're talking about it 291 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 5: is a good thing. Yeah, And hopefully people can see 292 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 5: trust their institutions in this guy. 293 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 2: And we'll do it some more. Jeremy, thank you so much. 294 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 2: Jeremy Rosenthal trial attorney, well joining us now on the 295 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 2: program is Wendy Chen, senior investment analyst for GAM Investments. So, Wendy, 296 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 2: you probably heard me do just a few moments ago 297 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 2: these disappointing PMI numbers out of China. The official PMI 298 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 2: coming in in contraction mode forty nine point five. That 299 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 2: was a full point below the estimate of fifty point 300 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 2: five in a Bloomberg survey. The non manufacturing PMI was 301 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 2: fifty one point one, and that was slightly lower than 302 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 2: the fifty one point five in the survey. Your early 303 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 2: thoughts on what's happening with manufacturing in China? 304 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think this definitely come as a dislike 305 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: discable appointment for the market as what people are expecting 306 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: to see another month of expansion just to keep the 307 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: SEAMA of the past two months and supported by a 308 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: kind of housey order book on the manufacturing side. But however, 309 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: we probably need to focus on what doesn't mean the 310 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: for the regulator to counter react on that, because the 311 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: PMI is pretty much the first major monthly data that's 312 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: come out on every month, so it's definitely impact on 313 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,479 Speaker 1: the pace of physical and the monetary policy to follow, 314 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 1: such as the intensity of the monitory easing as well 315 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: as the government bound issues, which to be friend has 316 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: been behind the schedule a little bit. 317 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 2: We have a headline on the Bloomberg Terminal at the 318 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 2: moment which kind of captures a lot and it simply says, 319 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 2: China sixty million homes are hard to sell even in 320 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 2: big cities. Tell us what your thoughts are on the 321 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 2: progress being made in the property market in China. 322 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, Actually, it's the property easing package that's announced in 323 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: mid last months in May has been better than a 324 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,159 Speaker 1: market expected because it's for the first time they started 325 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: to focus in on supporting the inventory digestion rather than 326 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: complete ongoing projects. So I think, especially time wise, since 327 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: we have the the Plennium that have been delayed for 328 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,640 Speaker 1: a year coming up in July, we're expecting to hear 329 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 1: more probably policy to address the property as well as 330 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: the lingering inventory problem. 331 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 2: So the inventory that's there, there's a lot of unsold 332 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 2: homes obviously, and then there are some people that just 333 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: don't even put their place up for sale because they 334 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 2: don't think they can find the buyer. Now, if we 335 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 2: were to target some of the policy developments that we've seen, 336 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 2: what do you think will work the best? 337 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: Well, I think in terms of the policy, one thing 338 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: is definitely to get people reassured that they can consume 339 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,199 Speaker 1: and can buy home, and with the current sentiment and 340 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: the deflationary environment is definitely not helping. So that's why 341 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 1: we're expecting probably some sort of social welfare reform to 342 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: coming up in the July sir the pilane era, as 343 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 1: well as hopefully some rural land reform that can opening 344 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: up the precautionary saving of people on buying houses as 345 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: well as consumption. 346 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,199 Speaker 2: You know, some of the changes that they've mooted or 347 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 2: the Houkoh system, I'm curious is that working. Are people 348 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 2: seeing feeling freer now to move to different areas around 349 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 2: the country and find work. 350 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: Well, the rural versus urban one is still, i would say, 351 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 1: relatively stable as it's ever been. So anything that could 352 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: release up this massive magnitude of rural population movement could 353 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: help to solve the current China problem that we've been 354 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 1: all facing. 355 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,400 Speaker 2: So if I'm an investor and I'm thinking of kind 356 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 2: of capturing a little mean reversion in China, a rebound 357 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,400 Speaker 2: after a pretty rough period here over the past year, admittedly, 358 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 2: we've seen a little bit of a jump in the 359 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 2: past couple of months, but some would say that China's 360 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 2: still cheap. Hong Kong and China are both still cheap. 361 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 2: What offers some of the best opportunities. If you can't 362 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 2: talk individual companies, at least talk themes or sectors. 363 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think it's definitely as you mentioned that 364 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: China has been kind of dropped to the bottom of 365 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: the sentiment and cheap as well as low on positioning, 366 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 1: So we definitely prefer those and them that's having some 367 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: fundamental support either from policy tellwent or from structural changes, 368 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: and those are the technology innovation since the government trying 369 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 1: to promote the self reskult lions as well as a 370 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 1: structural benefiting sector such as grain energy and ev. 371 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:17,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, we just heard about the Big Fun three and 372 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 2: that's forty seven and a half billion dollars has been 373 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 2: put into a fund to help stimulate development in that 374 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 2: area of semiconductors in and such. I want to ask 375 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 2: you kind of a critical question that may be hard 376 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 2: to answer, but the constraints that have been put on 377 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 2: the high tech sector in China by the United States 378 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 2: and others, do you think that that actually hurts China 379 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 2: or that it stimulates China to do more, and that's 380 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 2: why I mentioned that Big Fund three. Will it actually 381 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 2: lead to faster development in. 382 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: China, Well, it depends on whether this China can pose 383 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 1: through this whole semiconductor restriction, just like it posts through 384 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,959 Speaker 1: with the green energy a decade before. So the problem 385 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: is right now, the at least on the foundry side, 386 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: the China still probably have quite a big gap with 387 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: the word of leading players such as the PSM and 388 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: the kind of parting in the US. So it's really 389 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: takes a lot of money and investment and a lot 390 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 1: of patient for China to develop that, to develop that industry. 391 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 1: And maybe I don't know so like for some of 392 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: this sectors such as the cloud, the China have already 393 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: been leading, so maybe it can be built on the semiside, 394 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: but definitely need more patient. 395 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 2: Okay, Wendy, thank you for joining us here live on 396 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 2: the program and in our studios in Hong Kong. Wendy Chen, 397 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 2: Senior Investment Outlet analyst at GAM Investments. This is the 398 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news 399 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 2: and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg 400 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube. To get more episodes of this 401 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 2: and other shows from Bloomberg, subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 402 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on the Bloomberg Radio, 403 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.