1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 2 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: all around the world. Just to him of the program, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,239 Speaker 1: here comes the big gathering at Jackson Hole. I'm John 5 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,080 Speaker 1: Tucker in New York. I'm Stephen Carlin Londoner Pratization by 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: the UK's energy regulator in the coming days will help 7 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: tell us how high inflation is likely to go later 8 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: this year. I'm Bryan Curtis in Hong Kong. Is inflation 9 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: near peaking in South Korea? I'm Amy Morris in Washington. 10 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: The White House has had a few political wins. Will 11 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: that move the needle with goods? That's all straight ahead 12 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three O, New York, 13 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: Bloomberg one, Washington d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 14 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, d A B, Digital Radio, London, 15 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: Sirius x M one nineteen and around the world on 16 00:00:53,120 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business at Everybody. 17 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker. Let's start today's program with becoming annual 18 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: gathered in Jackson Hole that officially he kicks off this 19 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: coming Thursday. Blumber Global economics policy er Mike McKee is 20 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: among those going and he joins us now for some insights. 21 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: So you're gonna say it's really important this year because 22 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: you're going, it's important ever justified your trip for for 23 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: for people who don't know, we're not talking about going 24 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: to do some early skiing or you know, fly fishing. 25 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: This is a symposium of sorts. We might have some fishing. 26 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: This is the Kansas City fat To Annual Economic Symposium. 27 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: Started back in moved to Jackson Hole in one I believe, 28 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: and has been going on ever since. Uh, they did 29 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: a virtually the last couple of years. So this is 30 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: a return to Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park. 31 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: It's central bankers and academic economists from all over. They 32 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: present like really boring papers nobody understands, and then there's 33 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: like a few highlights where they say stuff that could 34 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: move markets potentially. Well, if I were going to be honest, 35 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 1: I totally agree with you. I don't think anybody there 36 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: would say that their papers that people don't understand, because 37 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: all those people understand it. There is a misconception about 38 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: Jackson Hole that it is someplace where central bankers come 39 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: to discuss the issues that face them and figure out 40 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: how they're going to attack them. It's really an academic conference. 41 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: Papers are submitted on topics related to monetary policy, and 42 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: people do sort of exploratory work that sets the stage 43 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: for thinking about ways to do things. But the average 44 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 1: person probably would not if you don't have an economics 45 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: theree would not understand a lot of it. Uh. And 46 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: it is not as dramatic or exciting as people make 47 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: it out to be. But by tradition, every year the 48 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: FED Chairman gives a keynote address, and most years it 49 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: falls under the category of nice to see you, glad 50 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: you're all here. This is a really important topic. But 51 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: a couple of times, most notably with Ben burn Anki 52 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: during the Great Financial Crisis, he laid out strategies for 53 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: the FED uh in monetary policy to deal with a 54 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 1: financial crisis. And there is a hope or a feeling 55 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: or a thought that J. Powe might do something similar 56 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: at this meeting on Friday. Okay, where are we right 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 1: now with the economic data? I mean, there's all sorts 58 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,119 Speaker 1: of speculation fifty or seventy five basis points at the 59 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: next FEDER Reserve meeting that's coming up, what in September 60 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: um And yet we've got this data that seems to 61 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: indicate the rate of inflation may be slowing at this point. 62 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: So I'm kind of wondering has the FED done its 63 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: job or inflation data that we're getting is working against 64 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: the Fed. There's a message that j Pal is going 65 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: to want to deliver if he's going to talk about 66 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: things like that, is that no, we're not anywhere near 67 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: close to done yet. Uh. The markets took the idea 68 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: that they could do fifty basis points in seven instead 69 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: of seventy five, which was just laid out as a 70 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: kind of a talking point by Jay Paula in July. 71 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: They took it as a sort of a hint that 72 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: the FED was going to pivot, and they look at 73 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: some of the slowing economic data and they say, well, 74 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: the Fed's gonna have to back off and next year 75 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to cut rates, and that's not gonna happen. 76 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: The FED is committed to keeping infest rates higher for 77 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: longer to make sure that inflation is squeezed out of 78 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: the economy. So if you know what I mean, that 79 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: the data that we recently got is that because of 80 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: FED policy or because of something else. I mean, do 81 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: you know when it's the policies working and done. That's 82 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: part of the problem if you're a policy maker. You 83 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: don't have real time confirmation because all the economic data 84 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: is by nature backward looking, so you're trying to extrapolate 85 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: from what you see and figure out what that means six, eight, ten, 86 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: twelve months down the road. Now, we've seen inflation ease 87 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: up a little bit one month's data, and a lot 88 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: of that had to do with energy prices, and energy 89 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: prices aren't anything at the FED deals with. The FED 90 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: is crypt housing, and we've seen declines in new home 91 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: sales and existing home sales and housing starts. So that 92 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: is starting to affect the economy. But we're only just 93 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 1: starting to see the impacts. And that's one of the 94 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: discussions they have in their meetings is how far do 95 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: we want to go? Because we want to go as 96 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:33,239 Speaker 1: far as we can without damaging the economy, and nobody 97 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: quite knows where that is. Maybe it's something that Paul 98 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: would address, all right, So who knows best the markets 99 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: or the policy makers? Because it correct me if I'm wrong. 100 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: It seems there's a bit of a disconnect between those 101 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 1: two thinking. There's an old saying don't fight the Fed, 102 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: and the young people who are in the markets these 103 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 1: days are fighting the Fed. They haven't been around. You 104 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 1: don't fight the Fed because they make the policy and 105 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: they have pretty much unlimited funds when it comes to 106 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: But what's happened over the years is you know what 107 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: people jokingly referred to as the Greenspan Bernankee, Yell and 108 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: and now Powell put where if markets get disrupted enough, 109 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: the FED will come into the markets and save them. Uh. 110 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: The Fed seems to be of the mind now that 111 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,280 Speaker 1: they're not going to do that because the markets aren't 112 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: going to need saving. They don't. They're functioning just fine. 113 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: It's just maybe that some people are losing money on 114 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: this or that trade. So they want to make sure 115 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: Inflation to them is the worst enemy, and they want 116 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: to make sure that they get it out of the economy. 117 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: So they want to deliver the message that's what they're 118 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: going to do. Mike, thanks very much. We'll be hosting 119 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Live for you from the Jackson Bowl Gallery 120 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Radio. And on Bloomberg Television as well. 121 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: Just ahead on Bloomberg day Break weekend, the UK braces 122 00:06:53,520 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 1: for a surgeon energy prices. This yeah, this is Bloomberg 123 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead of the top stories 124 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm John Tucker in 125 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: New York. Up later in the program, inflation and monetary 126 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: policy in South Korea takes center stage. But first, Despite 127 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: hitting double digits in July, inflation in the UK still 128 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: hasn't passed a peak. An upcoming decision with the country's 129 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: energy regulator will play a major role in deciding how 130 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: much higher it's going to go. And for more, let's 131 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: tend to London and bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Stephen 132 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: Carroll John. Since the UK's energy regulator, off Jam has 133 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: been setting maximum prices that energy firms can charge households 134 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: for electricity and natural gas. The next price rise comes 135 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: into a fact in October, and in the coming days 136 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: we'll find out just how much it will be rising by. 137 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: It's a move that will be a major driver of 138 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: inflation in the UK for the latter months of this year. 139 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: For more on this, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Renewable Energy 140 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 1: and Climate Change of porter Will Mathis and our E M. E. 141 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: A Economics and government correspondent, Buzzy Barden. Welcome to you both. Well, 142 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 1: can you explain, first of all, what actually is the 143 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: price cap and is it the maximum price that consumers 144 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: can expect to pay this year? So this is a 145 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: really good question and something that's pretty widely misunderstood. The 146 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: price cap is a tool that the off Jim, the 147 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: energy regulator, uses to cap like the unit price of energy. 148 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: So for every megawatt hour of electricity and gas that 149 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: you use in your home, the energy suppiers can only 150 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: charge you a certain rate poor per unit of energy. 151 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: But they when they're communicating this, they know that no 152 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: one really knows what a kill watt hour electricity is. 153 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: And if they come out and say, oh, we've kept 154 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: energy prices at five p per kill watt hour, you 155 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: know that means nothing to anyone, including you know me 156 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 1: and I write about this stuff all the time. So 157 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: what they do is they take that cap and then 158 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: they multiply it by the average energy use across the 159 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: country over a year, and then they put out that 160 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: number to everyone. And that's what all the headlines are 161 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: and so they say, for a whole year, the average 162 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: energy bill in the country is going to be, you know, 163 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: whatever it is. Most recently it was one thousand nine 164 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: pounds and we're expecting a mere dart in the background 165 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,439 Speaker 1: now such a small price. Now we're talking about something 166 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 1: that's much larger. So yeah, yeah, so that they use 167 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: it as a way to communicate what people can expect 168 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: their bills will be. But um, it is a bit 169 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: more complicated, but it is just to kind of limit 170 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: how much um suppliers can charge and they want to 171 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: make sure that's in line with what it is costing 172 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: those suppliers to actually buy energy and so they're not 173 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: just you know, making obscene profits. So how exactly is 174 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: the cop calculates it? Then basically they, um, you know, 175 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: calculate what it costs the suppliers. And the absolutely number 176 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: one thing is wholesale gas prices. Gas in the UK 177 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: sets the price electricity. Gas is the way that the 178 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: vast majority of homes get their heating in the winter. 179 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 1: So you know, there are other things like taxes and 180 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: certain policies that get funded off of bills, but the 181 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: really big thing on the bills, And the thing that 182 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: is fluctuating right now is wholesale enterry prices, and those 183 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: are changing so much right now that it's pretty difficult 184 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: to you know, know, you know in the beginning of 185 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,079 Speaker 1: the year what the cap is going to be at 186 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: the end of the year, because the entry prices just 187 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: look so much different right now amid just record volatility 188 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: we're seeing in the market. How much is the price 189 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 1: cop expected to arise by for October? So for October 190 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: they're expecting it to go up to about three thousand, 191 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: six hundred pounds and that is for an estimate for 192 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: bills for the year from October, or one for the 193 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: next twelve months that in that period they would estimate 194 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: that it would be about three thousand, six hundred pounds UM. 195 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 1: It's expected to go up even more in the first 196 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: quarter of next year. And so for like the winter period, 197 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: the six months of winter from October to March, the 198 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: bills are expected to have tripled from what it was 199 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: a year ago. Lizzie Burton turning to you, this is 200 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: going to be so important for the broader inflation picture. 201 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: We had that blistering number in the past few days, 202 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: ten point one percent the inflation rate in July. This 203 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 1: is going to determine how much hire that goes. Yeah, 204 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: we're in double digits already. Economists got it wrong again. 205 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 1: This is a new forty year high. It's more than 206 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: five times the Bank of England's target and as you imply, 207 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: we're not even at the peak yet. So the Bank 208 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: of England had forecasts that when the energy price cup 209 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: rises in October, peak inflation was going to be above 210 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: but given that we're already above ten percent, that could 211 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: be even higher. Now City economists are saying that peak 212 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 1: inflation could be fifteen percent in the first quarter of 213 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: three um. But remember it's not just about energy. In 214 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: the data, the UK inflation data that we've just had, 215 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: the main driver actually was food and actually as well 216 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 1: it was quite broad based this inflation. The next biggest 217 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: drivers were recreation and culture. You've had a big contribution 218 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: from services. So the worry for the Bank of England 219 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: is that this inflation surge is going to be long 220 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: lasting because it's spreading beyond energy across the economy as 221 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:39,559 Speaker 1: people's inflation expectations keep running themselves. So what sort of 222 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: challenges does this present now for the Bank of England. 223 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: It's such a difficult moment for the Bank of England because, 224 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: as officials explained after the last meeting, they're having to 225 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: inflict pain on consumers in order to bring down inflation. 226 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: So they've already done one jumbo rate hike in August 227 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: fifty basis points. Now our economists at Bloomberg Economics and 228 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: many others are expecting another fifty basis point hike in September, 229 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: and the Bank of England has said that this is 230 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: going to cause a long, shallow recession the likes of 231 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: which we haven't seen since the nineteen nineties. UM Former 232 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentence has said that the 233 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: key rate might have to go up to three to 234 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: four percent because policymakers at the beer we have got 235 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: so behind the curve. And the other thing is that 236 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: this inflation is swallowing up wage growth, which really makes 237 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: the issue so much more pressing for the Bank of England. 238 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: But because of the recession risk, that's what's worrying investors, 239 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: and you've seen the yield curve in voting the most 240 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: since the financial crisis because of the pain that the 241 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: necessary rate cuts will inflict on the economy. Is. The 242 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: energy price cap is something that we talk about so much. 243 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: It is a major part of the debate that's happening 244 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: at the moment on the political front, the toy leadership 245 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: debate as well. What are politicians saying about how they're 246 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: going to tackle high energy prices. Well, finally, for the 247 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: first time in ages, cursed arm of the opposition, Labor 248 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 1: Party leader managed to cut through with his proposal to 249 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: continue the windfall tax and freeze energy bills this winter. 250 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: And so in the hustings between Richard Sunac and those 251 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: Trusts to be the next Conservative Party leader and Prime 252 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: Minister this week, they had to respond to this proposal. 253 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: Richie Sunac ruled it out. He said that he would 254 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: target support the poorest households. Liz Trust said she doesn't 255 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: want to throw money at a short term fix, but 256 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: she wouldn't really be drawn on how else she would 257 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 1: help other than repeating her promise of tax cuts. Okay, 258 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: thank you very much to Bloomberg's Will Mathis and Lizzie 259 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: Burden for those insights. I'm Stephen Caroline London. You can 260 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning 261 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: at six am. In London and one am on Wall Street, 262 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: John Stephen, Thanks a lad, Just be UPO brig Daybreak 263 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 1: the weekend. Here comes that big central bank meeting in 264 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: South Korea. Is bloom broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive 265 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg eleven three oh to Washington, 266 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one 267 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine to the country Sirius XM 268 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: Channel one nine to London d A B Digital Radio, 269 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg 270 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, John 271 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: Tucker in New York with your global Boocancademy talk stories 272 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: for investment coming week. The pressure is on central banks 273 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: in Asia and South Korea in focus right now for more, 274 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: Let's into Hong Kong and Bloomberg day Break Asia host 275 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: Brian Curtis and his colleague Doug Chrisner. John. The cost 276 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: of living in South Korea is soaring. Last month, consumer 277 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: inflation soared to the highest level in twenty four years, 278 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: and it's raised questions as to whether or not the 279 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: Bank of Korea will in the week ahead be so 280 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: bold as to raise rates by another fifty basis points, 281 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: as it did in July. For a closer look at 282 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: the b okay meeting and the South Korean economy overall, 283 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: we're joined by Kathleen Hayes, Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy editor. Kathleen, 284 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us for the discussion. We've 285 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: seen four rate hikes from the b ok this year 286 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: and quite a lot of aggressive movement there. What are 287 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 1: we expecting this time? Well, you know, the last rate 288 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: hike was fifty basis point and that was a definitely 289 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: the more aggressive move. So now the question is will 290 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: they do another one? You just mentioned consumer prices up 291 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: six point three percent from a year earlier. UM, that's 292 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: a slight acceleration from the month before there. Uh. I 293 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: think it's the highest since four So they are definitely 294 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: in a position where want to get inflation down. Uh. 295 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: And recently, however, Chingyong Ri, the new relatively new head 296 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: of the Bank of Korea, signaled a move maybe of 297 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 1: twenty five even with the high inflation. There's enough clouds, 298 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 1: you know, dark clouds over the h Create economy, as 299 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: there are many economies now in the world. I think 300 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: they're getting a little less ready and eager to do 301 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: the more aggressive hikes. They were one of the first 302 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: central banks to begin tightening, I recall, and as with 303 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: any central bank, it's trying to strike a balance right 304 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 1: between tackling inflation on one hand and supporting economic growth. 305 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 1: This is a very unique economy because it's so strongly 306 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: export driven, but at the same time, there are a 307 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: lot of internal things here that make it a little complex. 308 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: The household sector is very heavily levered, right, You've got 309 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 1: food inflation that's beginning to pop up. There are labor 310 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: problems that the new government is having to deal with. 311 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 1: So it's a complicated situation I think for the b Okay. 312 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:02,640 Speaker 1: And it's interesting because one of the reasons they're having 313 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 1: those labor problems is because of rising prices. That's a 314 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: big part of it. You know, we think more maybe 315 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: about um food unrest in some poorer countries, but in 316 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 1: in Korea, that's that's gotten people off their feet. I 317 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 1: think it's that's one of the reasons why coming back 318 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: to what the tone has been lately that uh, the 319 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: the moves they're going to, they're gonna keep moving. They're 320 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: gonna fight, but the moves are going to be gradual. 321 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: That seems to be their message. Now they hope to 322 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: get I believe to about two point seven five three 323 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: by the end of the year, so they that means 324 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: they have some more to run. But again maybe the 325 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 1: fifty basis point hike isn't quite as UH probable, particularly 326 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 1: after you see the slow down in China and we're 327 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: seeing action on the fiscal side to the finance minister 328 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: recently was talking about cutting spending pretty significantly. I think 329 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 1: for ten years in a row, Um, you've been adding 330 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: to extra spending year and year out with the previous administration. 331 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: But the new administration wants to cut spending and get 332 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,479 Speaker 1: a lot more disciplined. How might that impact inflation? Well, 333 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: if you cut back on spending, it's you know, your 334 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: there's the money you add to melus or of subtract it. 335 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: So the question is, I guess where they would be 336 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: UH cutting their spending. Who would they be pulling back 337 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: on And I don't think it's entirely clear yet exactly 338 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: how that is UH is going to play out, So 339 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: UH for the immediate future, I think that the b 340 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,399 Speaker 1: Okay and what they do. They're going to keep an 341 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 1: eye on that, and they're very supportive of that. But 342 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: I think that it's right now, it's going to be 343 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: again more growth, uh. And it's not just China slowing down, 344 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: of course that they're looking at. Their looking aggressive rate 345 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: hikes by the FED. You mentioned the FED. It's interesting 346 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: because we just had the FED Minutes recently and one 347 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: of the things that I took away from it is 348 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 1: a reminder that monetary policy works with a lag. We're 349 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: going to need some time to be able to see 350 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 1: more clearly how the tightening is playing out in the economy. 351 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 1: And I would imagine the be Okay is in the 352 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 1: exact same situation. They certainly are, and that's another reason 353 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: why presumably they have to be sending out the message 354 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 1: that they're going to keep hiking. They're ready to hike, 355 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: but they've also stated publicly that this is one of 356 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: the things they're watching very closely. But certainly Korea, what 357 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: is it, the leventh biggest country in the world, it's 358 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: the fourth biggest exporter, so it's something they're very much 359 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: in tune to. And then something uh that's in the 360 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: background for everybody, the war in Ukraine, the fact that 361 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 1: it's not going away, the fact that commodity prices are 362 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: being affected, and that washes over their economy too. All right, Kathleen, 363 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us an interesting discussion. Kathleen Hayes, 364 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy editor. I'm Brian Curtis, along 365 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: with Doug Krisner. You can catch us every weekday here 366 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six am in Hong 367 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 1: Kong and six pm on Wall Street. John Bryan and 368 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 1: Doug Thanks alive, just to hand on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. 369 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: The President Biden has had some big wins lately. How 370 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: much traction and he get out of it? As politics 371 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:06,239 Speaker 1: gets more fractures have a big key midterm election. I'm 372 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: John Tuckers. Busy is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look 373 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: ahead of the top stories for investors in the coming week. 374 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 1: I'm John Tuckery in New York. President Biden has had 375 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: some big wins lightly and the question for him is 376 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: how much traction can he get out of all of this? 377 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 1: For more? Let's into our Bloomberg room in Washington and 378 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 1: Amy Morris Amy, thank you, John. We are looking at 379 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 1: the possibility that the Democrats may be feeling some momentum, 380 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: a question that's especially important for President Biden right now 381 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 1: ahead of the midterms. Bloomberg White House reporter Jordan Fabian 382 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 1: joins me now is bringing us some insight. Jordan's it's 383 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: a pleasure. Thanks so much for taking the time with 384 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: us today. Thanks for having me on Amy. Now, let's 385 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: start with the laundry list of wins for President Biden. 386 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 1: The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips Bill uh signs that 387 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 1: inflation may be starting to moderate um. That analysis that 388 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 1: was in the New York Times this past week asking 389 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 1: the question if the Biden administration is at a turning point, 390 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: Let me ask you, is the Biden administration at a 391 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: turning point? I think it's fair to say it is. 392 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: All these wins, especially the Inflation Reduction Act, weren't thought 393 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: possible just weeks ago, and they did manage to push 394 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 1: these through and not to mention it, you know, in 395 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: a fifty Senate where there they really don't have a 396 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 1: margin for error. So this is a real These are 397 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,479 Speaker 1: some real achievements for the White House. The the issue 398 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 1: is is it coming too late for them to turn 399 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 1: prospects around for Democrats in the November midterm elections. They 400 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 1: really need these winds to try to generate momentum for 401 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 1: them politically. But the problem is, Americans are still worried 402 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: about the state of the economy and inflation, which while 403 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 1: slow down last month, is still high compared to last year. 404 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 1: And so you know, Americans are still uh dealing with 405 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: those problems that are likely to have those things on 406 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: their mind when they go to the batot box of 407 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: the fall. That's kind of what they're up against, they 408 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,360 Speaker 1: being the Democrats. I mean, when they do have some 409 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: sort of significant legislative win, there's that lag time between 410 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: when the win happens and when the rank and file 411 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: voters actually feel the impact of that. That's right. And look, 412 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: I mean even in uh other administrations, it's not unusual 413 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 1: for the president's party to take a beating in the 414 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 1: first midterm election after the president was elected. And look 415 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: at what happened to President Barack Obama. That he got 416 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: the Obamacare through the Congress is signature achievement. And yet 417 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: Democrats still lost in the in November of Donald Trump's 418 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: Republican Party lost just two years after he was elected 419 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: as well, the one recent outlier was George W. Bush, 420 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: and that was that was during the midst of the 421 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 1: Iraq War and only on year after the nine eleven attacks. So, uh, 422 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: this is just something that happens in American politics. And 423 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 1: while the White House has amasked a lot of winds 424 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 1: and they're gonna try to put people out there and 425 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 1: and get Democrats excited to vote, there's not much they 426 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: can do to really change the political dynamics here that 427 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: we've seen for the last few decades. Yeah, I understand 428 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,239 Speaker 1: that the White House is going to conduct that sort of, 429 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: um popularity blitz, I guess a PR blitz where they're 430 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,880 Speaker 1: gonna go all over the country, sending out the cabinet 431 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 1: secretaries and the President himself and sort of tout their accomplishments. Um. 432 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 1: My question about that is does something like that normally 433 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: change hearts and minds. I mean, letting people know what 434 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 1: you've done is one thing, but actually thinking you're gonna 435 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 1: get somebody to vote for you who might not have 436 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: voted before or might not be interested in voting Democrat, 437 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: that seems to be a harder sell. It seems unlikely 438 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: it's going to help in a major way and shifting 439 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: the political dynamic out of this election. But Democrats are 440 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: hopeful that it can help around the market. In particular, 441 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:09,439 Speaker 1: they're hopeful that it could help excite Democrats who maybe 442 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,400 Speaker 1: we're down on President Joe Biden, to get excited and 443 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,639 Speaker 1: and go out and vote for Democratic candidates for the 444 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 1: House and Senate in November. And they're not only banking 445 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: on the recent spate of wins, but also on harnessing 446 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: Democratic voters anger over the Supreme Court decision to end 447 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: nationwide abortion rights. So you can expect Democrats to talk 448 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: about what they've done and then also try to set 449 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 1: up this dichotomy, this choice between them and a Republican party. 450 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: They're gonna seek to label this extreme, and they're going 451 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 1: to use their opposition to the inflation and justment acts, 452 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: their position on abortion rights, and not to mention President 453 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, who's now embroiled in new legal problems and 454 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 1: making noise that he might even announce another run for 455 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: the White House and stuff in the next few months. Now, 456 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: let's talk about the primaries. Jordan's. So far, they've seemed 457 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: to be an exercise in seeing how much of a 458 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 1: whole Donald Trump has on the Republican Party. A lot 459 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: of people looking and comparing and contrasting this GOP candidate 460 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: who has Trump backing versus that GOP candidate who does not. 461 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,159 Speaker 1: This past week we saw Republicans getting primaried, which I 462 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 1: guess is now a Verblizz Cheney the most high profile example. 463 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: So what does this say um to the White House 464 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: and what are they worried about? Where are they more confident, 465 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 1: what are they watching? Well, they're definitely watching these primaries closely. 466 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: And you know from from my sense of talking to 467 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: people in the White House and in democratic organizations, is 468 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: that they prefer to have the more pro Trump Republican 469 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: as the nominee and a lot of these close races 470 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 1: because you know I was talking earlier about that contrast, 471 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: they want to set up. The belief is that it's 472 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 1: easier to do that when they're running against uh, you know, 473 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: we're publican who's on the right wing of the party 474 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: and it's espoused all those beliefs that I talked about 475 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: earlier and also has maybe disputed the results of elections. 476 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 1: They think that's an easy contrast to set up, and 477 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: you're gonna see that in races like out in Arizona 478 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 1: was has Senate race pitting an incumbent Mark Kelly against 479 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 1: a Republican Canada and Blake Masters, who has expressed out 480 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 1: about the election, and a number of other races do. 481 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: And the problem, maybe though, is that a lot of 482 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 1: these in a lot of these races, those candidates might 483 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 1: actually end up winning, so on the Republican side. So 484 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: while Democrats may have hoped that they've won, and in fact, 485 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:46,119 Speaker 1: Democratic political organizations have even run as supporting some of 486 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,160 Speaker 1: the quote unquote election deniers. Uh, you know, they're they're 487 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 1: supporting candidates who might end up winning and having public 488 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: office and holding the levels of power. And so it's 489 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 1: a risky gamble, but it's one that Democrats hope pay off. 490 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 1: Let's take that a step further. We mentioned Liz Cheney earlier. 491 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 1: She is one of those Republicans who was one of 492 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,879 Speaker 1: the biggest adversaries from the GOP for President Trump. She 493 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 1: lost that primary, but it doesn't look like she's done 494 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: with politics. Just this past week, she's made a couple 495 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,160 Speaker 1: of announcements that make it sound like she is going 496 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 1: to make sure her voice will continue to be heard. 497 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 1: Did her losing that primary just light a fire in 498 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:29,920 Speaker 1: her belly. It certainly seemed to a mean. She even 499 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 1: alluded in the past week to launching her own presidential campaign, 500 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 1: possibly something that she's thinking about. The problem for her is, though, 501 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 1: is that, you know, with the primaries on the Republican 502 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: side of me pretty clear is that this is Donald 503 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: Trump's Republican Party. Now, voters on the Republican side seemed 504 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 1: to generally want these pro Trump candidates. They they support 505 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: candidates who expressed doubts or denied the results of election. 506 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 1: So what is Liz Cheney's position in the party at 507 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 1: this point that who could she appeal to to win 508 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 1: a nomination for the presidency. That's a very small sliver 509 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: of voters at this point on the Republican side nationwide. 510 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 1: And we are talking with Bloomberg White House correspondent Jordan 511 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: Fabian about whether the White House winds of late can 512 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 1: move the needle at all with the men terms. Um, 513 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 1: Jordan's there is a primary coming up in Florida. What 514 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: are you going to be watching for. I know Rohn 515 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: de Santiss name has been coming up more than once. Yeah, certainly, 516 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 1: you know Rohn de Santis is another person who's rumored 517 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 1: that possibly want to run against Donald Trump or or 518 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: or seek the presidential nomination for the Republican Party in 519 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: four So you'll be looking closely at, you know, what, 520 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: how he's going to perform. Is he is he really 521 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: gonna you know, sort of run away with it and 522 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 1: demonstrate his strength. And also in the weeks ahead, looking 523 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 1: to New York State or on the Democratic side, there's 524 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 1: some incumbent on incumbent races in New York City that 525 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 1: you're you're going to see some dynamics on the progressive 526 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: versus establishment wings of the party running against each other. 527 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: So those races will be interesting too to watch to 528 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 1: see how that power struggle on the Democratic side plays out. Yeah, 529 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask about that because, like you said, 530 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 1: progressives versus the your your your standard sort of establishment Democrats, 531 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 1: and a lot of Democrats right now not too happy 532 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: with President Biden's response on the Supreme Court abortion rights reversal. 533 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 1: They say he's moved too slow on this. Is that 534 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: going to come back to affect him? Yeah, That's that's 535 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,720 Speaker 1: certainly a dynamic that exists right now. Amy, a lot 536 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 1: of the activists in the Democratic Party you want to 537 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: see a more forceful response to harness that energy and 538 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: frustration that I was talking about earlier. When it comes 539 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 1: to the abortion rights this issue, we've seen people like 540 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 1: Vice President Kamala Harris really take the torch on this 541 00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 1: one run with it, whereas Biden's remarks have been more subdued. However, 542 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 1: we haven't seen that frustration translated into a lot of 543 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: progressive victories against candidates from the more establishment wing or 544 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 1: that Joe Biden has backed. In fact, we've seen a 545 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: lot of those progressive challengers lose to established min's figures. 546 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: Uh Right, in the New York race where you're gonna 547 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: see one Sean Patrick Maloney, the head of the House 548 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 1: Democrats campaign, arms facing a progressive challenger, but he's thought 549 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,960 Speaker 1: to be a head and at race. Even looking back 550 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 1: to a primery in Texas where Henry Quaire, who is 551 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 1: a skeptic of abortion rights, ended up beating a progressive challenger, 552 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 1: um that that that issue on the Democratic side hasn't 553 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 1: seemed to have shifted the results of primaries, even though 554 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,880 Speaker 1: there is this frustration amongst some of the base voters 555 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 1: about how President Biden has handled the issue. All Right, 556 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: we're gonna watch it with you Jordan. Thank you so 557 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 1: much for taking the time my pleasure. Amy, thanks Jordan's 558 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 1: baby and covers the White House for Bloomberg News, and 559 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 1: that's what's going on in the nation's capital. For more 560 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: of our political news coverage, you can tune into Balance 561 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 1: of Power with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time, 562 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 1: and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekdays at five pm 563 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy Morris, 564 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg John Amy Morris reporting from our 565 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg room at Washington. Thanks a lot, Amy, and that 566 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: does it for this additional Bloomberg day Break weekend. Join 567 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time 568 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 1: for the latest on markets overseas, at the news you 569 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 1: need to start your day, I'm John Tucker. This