WEBVTT - Peloton's Biggest Turnaround, Ways to Stay Alive

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business.

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody check it out. Shares a Peloton Man

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<v Speaker 2>investors peddling fast to snap them up. The stock soaring

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<v Speaker 2>the most ever, although shares, I should point out, still

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<v Speaker 2>down about thirty percent year to date. They're off about

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<v Speaker 2>ninety seven percent from their all time high that was

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<v Speaker 2>back in January of twenty twenty one. Let me just

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<v Speaker 2>put it up on the Bloomberg because the stock is

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<v Speaker 2>right now up thirty six percent. Let's get to it, though,

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<v Speaker 2>because there's stuff going on. Bloomberg News Chief Technology correspondent

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<v Speaker 2>Mark German is with us in the La Bureau.

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<v Speaker 3>Mark.

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<v Speaker 2>We're usually talking Apple and we might get there. Peloton

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<v Speaker 2>the latest results earnings beat. It seems significant. This is

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<v Speaker 2>a company that has continued to struggle since the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 2>What's your take on kind of what we got and

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<v Speaker 2>does it mean that a corner has turned for Peloton.

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<v Speaker 4>Investors clearly are happy about the showcase of some better profitability, right,

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<v Speaker 4>more free cash flow, more savings. But let's not forget

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<v Speaker 4>last quarter their CEO resigned because clearly he didn't like

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<v Speaker 4>the road he was seeing ahead of him. You had

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<v Speaker 4>another fifteen percent of jobs cut. That followed three or

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<v Speaker 4>four rounds of layoffs in the prior two years. They've

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<v Speaker 4>completely destroyed this business, right, They've taken it from this

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<v Speaker 4>hardware darling that made these popular bikes and treadmills and

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<v Speaker 4>have re architected it into an app business. I know

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<v Speaker 4>investors are seeing the potential of profit here, and they

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<v Speaker 4>saw that beat in this in this fourth quarter, But

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<v Speaker 4>if you look ahead to the first quarter, you're going

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<v Speaker 4>to see a dramatic revenue tanking on paid app subscriptions

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<v Speaker 4>as well as their hardware purchases. So I'm not entirely

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<v Speaker 4>sure why investors are so optimistic about this company. I

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<v Speaker 4>personally think that a long term future for Peloton is

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<v Speaker 4>far fetched. I think that the best approach for them

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<v Speaker 4>would be to try to sell themselves to a Netflix

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<v Speaker 4>or an Amazon and convince Netflix or Amazon for a

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<v Speaker 4>few billion dollars to buy their very strong arsenal of

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<v Speaker 4>content right and their application in that brand and make

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<v Speaker 4>that part of a Netflix subscription an Amazon Prime subscription

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<v Speaker 4>to make that more valuable and get more people to

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<v Speaker 4>sign up for their monthly services.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, the whole company is worth less than what

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<v Speaker 3>Apple paid for Beats headphones that you don't even see

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<v Speaker 3>anymore because Apple decided they don't even care about the brand.

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<v Speaker 3>It's got to be the smallest company that I've ever

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<v Speaker 3>heard you, Mark German talk about. They only grew revenue

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<v Speaker 3>one percent, and as you said, it's expected to fall.

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<v Speaker 3>The only reason they're getting fatter margins is because they're

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<v Speaker 3>cutting costs at the same time. It kind of reminds

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<v Speaker 3>me of Apple in the sense that the market is

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<v Speaker 3>just saturated for these very expensive devices and they need

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<v Speaker 3>to find other ways to get revenue. Do they have

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<v Speaker 3>any other leads?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>I wouldn't be surprised if Peloton, as one last ditch effort,

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<v Speaker 4>winds down their Harbor business completely right, tries to take

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<v Speaker 4>a loss on that on their balance sheet and completely

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<v Speaker 4>gets rid of it. There's nothing proprietary about their hardware.

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<v Speaker 4>If I'm being completely honest, right, this is something that

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<v Speaker 4>any company in America or China or wherever can probably

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<v Speaker 4>replicate really quickly. It burns a hole in their pockets

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<v Speaker 4>and their margins. They've destroyed this business. Barry McCarthy drove

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<v Speaker 4>this business into the ground. He really had no choice

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<v Speaker 4>after what John Foley did to it, thinking that this

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<v Speaker 4>was going to become a trillion dollar company out of

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<v Speaker 4>COVID and that people would never leave the house again.

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<v Speaker 4>So I certainly think that the saving grace here is

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<v Speaker 4>their content and their application, and I wouldn't be surprised

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<v Speaker 4>in two to three years from now if Peloton hasn't

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<v Speaker 4>sold itself that it's an app only business, and you

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<v Speaker 4>could have a nice business as an application. We've seen

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<v Speaker 4>so many companies be app driven businesses.

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<v Speaker 5>You have Uber.

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<v Speaker 4>Netflix obviously is an app in many respects built around content.

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<v Speaker 4>So the potential is there. But to your point, the

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<v Speaker 4>only reason they're showing better profitability and cost savings is

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<v Speaker 4>because they keep firing people and cutting costs. Now back

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<v Speaker 4>to my harbor point for a second. When their chief

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<v Speaker 4>product officer, this was one of their few co founders,

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<v Speaker 4>left about a year and change ago, he was not

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<v Speaker 4>replaced by a hardware person. He was replaced someone with

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<v Speaker 4>someone who's an expert in software and content and server infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 4>And I think that gives you some sort of indicator

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<v Speaker 4>where this company is going all in on that app.

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<v Speaker 4>If they can turn that strong brand into a strong application,

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<v Speaker 4>they have the future. But that's not a multi billion

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<v Speaker 4>dollar public company mark.

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<v Speaker 2>Where did they go wrong? Where was the Because they

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<v Speaker 2>came out of the gate a hardware company, right, and

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<v Speaker 2>there was a lot of fanfare, there was a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of ads. I know, we as a media organization did

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<v Speaker 2>multiple stories and conversations. I know you you were covering them.

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<v Speaker 2>Where did they go wrong? Is it that they just

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<v Speaker 2>thought too big the spend? What was it?

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<v Speaker 3>Or was it just coming out of COVID. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>everybody was riding this bike in COVID.

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<v Speaker 2>But what I'm trying to understand is COVID did I've

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<v Speaker 2>got one? I canceled my membership just recently because I'm

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<v Speaker 2>just you know, it's a cote rack. But I had

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<v Speaker 2>it exactly, but I had it before COVID. Having said that,

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<v Speaker 2>though if COVID hadn't happened, would they have still had

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<v Speaker 2>problems and issues?

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<v Speaker 4>Potentially they were this nice high end brand, small company

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<v Speaker 4>prior to COVID. COVID hit, they exploded. Everyone wanted one, right.

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<v Speaker 4>They were growing so quickly. They continued to hire, they

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<v Speaker 4>made major investments, they rolled out new products, they doubled

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<v Speaker 4>down on their content. But the worst thing they did

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<v Speaker 4>was try to open this facility in Ohio to manufacture

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<v Speaker 4>their own equipment in the United States. And they spent

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<v Speaker 4>billions of dollars to do this. Right, they're only now

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<v Speaker 4>writing that all down, and they really, you know, put

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<v Speaker 4>themselves in a bad position. Fundamentally. They made a terrible

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<v Speaker 4>bet that COVID would last for the foreseeable future, maybe forever. People,

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<v Speaker 4>and I hate to be exaggerating here, but this is

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<v Speaker 4>really what they thought. People weren't going to leave the

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<v Speaker 4>house again. People weren't going to go to gym's again.

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<v Speaker 4>They were going to only work out from home. And

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<v Speaker 4>they didn't double down. They quadrupled down on that idea,

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<v Speaker 4>spent too much money, Jim started reopening. The world returned

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<v Speaker 4>to some semblance of normalcy, and they were stuck with

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<v Speaker 4>all this excess inventory that nobody was buying because people

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<v Speaker 4>wouldn't need it. On top of that, they had crisis

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<v Speaker 4>after crisis, including launching a treadmill that didn't have proper

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<v Speaker 4>safety protections that ended up killing a baby, hurting pets,

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<v Speaker 4>and hurting people. And then they're bike had issues too

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<v Speaker 4>where people were falling off of the bike, so their

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<v Speaker 4>harbor wasn't safe and their harbor wasn't very good. So

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<v Speaker 4>it was just this multitude of issue after issue after

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<v Speaker 4>issue on top of really bad bets that drove this

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<v Speaker 4>company to a place where a new CEO had to

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<v Speaker 4>come in. Fire half the company wind down much of

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<v Speaker 4>the harbor business, and now they're left with an application

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<v Speaker 4>that then ran into marketing issues that then ran into

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<v Speaker 4>cost issues. So they're not really in a great place

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<v Speaker 4>right now. Despite the new profitability they're showing.

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<v Speaker 2>Kind of sounds like next stop. You know, the CEO

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<v Speaker 2>has to be an expert and how to sell a company.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, to be fair, Maybe at the time, many of

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<v Speaker 3>us thought nobody would leave the home again, right, and

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of workers are still working from home.

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<v Speaker 2>You didn't think you'd go back to work.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I'd never spent a day at home. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 3>was in the office every day. But there were people

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<v Speaker 3>who thought, you know, this was a structural change, not

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<v Speaker 3>that we wouldn't literally leave the home, but that we

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<v Speaker 3>would work from home, we would exercise from home, we

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<v Speaker 3>would only watch movies at home. And a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>that has happened.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there's a balance, yes, But Matt, and you've seen

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<v Speaker 4>so many other companies face this, right, You've seen other

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<v Speaker 4>companies like the tech giants over investing and having to

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<v Speaker 4>pull back. But what Peloton should have done right with

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<v Speaker 4>scale as needed? They refuse to scale as needed. They

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<v Speaker 4>went from zero to one hundred to prepare for demand

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<v Speaker 4>that they were anticipating that never came. The smarter thing

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<v Speaker 4>would have been to follow the Dell and Apple model

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<v Speaker 4>of supply chain and build to a necessary degree. Now

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<v Speaker 4>under this new leadership, they've done a lot of smart

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<v Speaker 4>things to unwind the troubles of the prior management team. Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>and they could have a pretty good app. But and

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<v Speaker 4>one last thing I will say on this, because.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just quick.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there's no stronger brand in fitness than Peloton. So

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<v Speaker 4>there is something still interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>There, right, It's a value you say, Peloton people know,

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<v Speaker 2>all right, interesting And we figure they'll at least be

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<v Speaker 2>at least one more chapter to this and he'll be

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<v Speaker 2>covering a Bloomberg News chief technology correspondent Marker out there

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<v Speaker 2>on the West coast, you're.

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<v Speaker 1>Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 1>weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen on

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<v Speaker 1>Business act or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>I got some numbers for you. A Bloomberg News team

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<v Speaker 2>put this out that wellness it's a big global business.

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<v Speaker 2>It's about five point six trillion in rev revenue back

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty two. This is from the Global Wellness Institute.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a big industry group, and they say research from

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<v Speaker 2>the nonprofit organization says the industry has grown from three

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<v Speaker 2>point four trillion in twenty thirteen. I'm throwing a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of numbers, and by twenty twenty seven it's expected to

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<v Speaker 2>grow an additional fifty seven percent to eight point five trillion,

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<v Speaker 2>about twice's largess Germany's gross domestic product.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, there'll be a test.

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<v Speaker 6>Year's end of this.

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<v Speaker 3>Well do you know that seventy six point one percent

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<v Speaker 3>of stats are made up?

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<v Speaker 2>Why do you say that?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, how do you classify what people spend on

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<v Speaker 3>wellness or not well by? By water is it wellness.

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<v Speaker 2>Every time you buy something, you know, there's data collection,

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<v Speaker 2>like there's stuff. Anyway, let's get to somebody who's got

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<v Speaker 2>their own report on wellness and health and what consumers

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<v Speaker 2>are actually thinking about their own state of health. The

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<v Speaker 2>Carney Institute Consumer Institute has done somewhere. Katie Thomas is

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<v Speaker 2>with us. She's lead at the Carnee Consumer Institute with

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<v Speaker 2>us from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. I don't know if you have

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<v Speaker 2>some comments on data, but let's go to your research.

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<v Speaker 2>How are you.

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<v Speaker 7>I'm doing well, Carol? How are you? Matt already scooped?

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<v Speaker 7>You know, basically my whole brief by saying that is

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<v Speaker 7>water wellness or not? Those are the exact kind of

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<v Speaker 7>questions we were asking.

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<v Speaker 3>So I played pickle wall the last two nights and

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<v Speaker 3>it was fifteen dollars a session. Was that thirty dollars

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<v Speaker 3>spent on wellness this week?

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<v Speaker 6>Yes?

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<v Speaker 1>Right?

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<v Speaker 7>Well, yes, yes, I would say so. Yeah. So I

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<v Speaker 7>think you're asking the exact right questions, which is, you know,

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<v Speaker 7>our motivation going into this was to understand a little

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<v Speaker 7>bit more how actual people talk about health and wellness

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<v Speaker 7>as opposed to how we tend to bucket it when

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<v Speaker 7>we talk about it from sort of a consumer trend

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<v Speaker 7>or spend perspective. Well, when we talk to people about health,

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<v Speaker 7>it's a lot more higher order than these like simple

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<v Speaker 7>decisions that we're talking about here. Whether it's pickleball or

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<v Speaker 7>even GLP ones or the sober curious movement, people have

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<v Speaker 7>much heavier ways of thinking about health. But they also

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<v Speaker 7>feel like they know how to make healthy decisions. So

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<v Speaker 7>that's an area where as we look at these health

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<v Speaker 7>and wellness trends and we keep kind of hammering home

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<v Speaker 7>the communication of this is how to be healthier. Most

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<v Speaker 7>people don't actually need that messaging. They either are defining

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<v Speaker 7>it for themselves or they already know how to do it.

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<v Speaker 2>Wait, so why did you do this?

0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:34.360
<v Speaker 1>What?

0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:36.040
<v Speaker 2>Like, how do you guys take this and then I

0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:40.760
<v Speaker 2>either help your clients or find productive material and you know,

0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:42.600
<v Speaker 2>help to make productive decisions out of it.

0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.040
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, So what we really do is, honestly, it's in

0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.760
<v Speaker 7>response to the fact that everyone feels like they have

0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.040
<v Speaker 7>to kind of jump at every little blip you see

0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:55.120
<v Speaker 7>on the radar. So whether it's electrolyte powders or you know,

0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.760
<v Speaker 7>gut health or like, oh I've got to move and

0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.240
<v Speaker 7>make these small shifts to all these little tiki taki

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.640
<v Speaker 7>health and wellness trends. And what we found is if

0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.920
<v Speaker 7>you have a better understanding of a consumer's overall lifestyle,

0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:08.920
<v Speaker 7>that will be a lot more impactful. So I think

0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:12.520
<v Speaker 7>a great recent example of this is McDonald's actually taking

0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:16.240
<v Speaker 7>salads off the menu right because they realize that when

0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.480
<v Speaker 7>people go there, they're probably not looking for a salad,

0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.920
<v Speaker 7>and there may just be other ways they define health

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.720
<v Speaker 7>from McDonald So it's not going all the way to

0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.559
<v Speaker 7>a salad. Maybe it's grilled chicken tenders things like that.

0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.640
<v Speaker 7>So it's really starting to kind of translate some of

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.400
<v Speaker 7>the overall lifestyle considerations and where people make trade offs

0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:36.959
<v Speaker 7>and kind of couch things as health, like we said,

0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:41.000
<v Speaker 7>as opposed to feeling like you have to overcorrect just

0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.720
<v Speaker 7>because some small health and wellness, you know, little trend

0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:45.439
<v Speaker 7>is bubbling up.

0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 3>I've been buying asa e bowls lately, Aggie loves My

0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 3>daughter loves assabols.

0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:52.000
<v Speaker 5>Although they're packed with sugar.

0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:54.079
<v Speaker 3>So I'm not sure that it's much different than I I've.

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:55.880
<v Speaker 2>Known you for such a long time when you weren't

0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.360
<v Speaker 2>an asaya ball kind of guy.

0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:01.000
<v Speaker 3>Yes, well, I mean, look, I'm leaning more into it

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:02.360
<v Speaker 3>because I'm getting older.

0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.520
<v Speaker 2>Is that why you've done it out of it?

0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, yeah, of course I want to live longer,

0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.560
<v Speaker 3>you know, I don't want to die of a heart

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:13.560
<v Speaker 3>attack and get diabetes. And but you know what, I'm

0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:16.520
<v Speaker 3>in a very large cohort, right, I mean we're seeing

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 3>I was talking to Alan Patrick Hov today, famous VC.

0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 2>Investor invests in longevity.

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:26.400
<v Speaker 3>In longevity his new company, Prime Time invest In trying

0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:28.880
<v Speaker 3>to make life better for people who are older. And

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.520
<v Speaker 3>there are more people over sixty than there are under eighteen,

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:38.120
<v Speaker 3>So we're definitely directionally that's where we're headed, right, Katie.

0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.800
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, absolutely, And that's part of what we're seeing here

0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:44.200
<v Speaker 7>is just like a preference for preventative health as opposed

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.960
<v Speaker 7>to some of the other, again smaller things we've seen

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 7>as a response to health lately. And then also of

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 7>course factoring in mental health, and that's where some of

0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.680
<v Speaker 7>this really starts to blur. And sometimes there's this inherent

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:58.520
<v Speaker 7>conflict with health of what's traditionally physically healthy as it

0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.720
<v Speaker 7>relates to perhaps diet and exercise, and then what's sort

0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 7>of that self care bucket, right, Like, oh, I you know,

0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:06.560
<v Speaker 7>having ice cream once a week or a glass of

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:08.760
<v Speaker 7>wine is sort of taking care of myself. It's good

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 7>for my mental health. And so it's really that's part

0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.320
<v Speaker 7>of the journey is figuring out for consumers and each

0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.000
<v Speaker 7>brand's individual consumers, what are those trade offs people are making,

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.160
<v Speaker 7>how are they defining health, What is what matters most

0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:24.160
<v Speaker 7>to them, like where they're gonna kind of make a sacrifice,

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 7>Like a lot of people still don't eat healthy things

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 7>because simply they don't taste good. And then there's a

0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 7>lot of products like some of those electrolyte powders that

0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:34.160
<v Speaker 7>that's exactly why they're doing well is because people don't

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 7>like plain water. So it's really just like trying to

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 7>bring all those things together and strike the right balance

0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:41.760
<v Speaker 7>to figure out what health really means to consumer.

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I spend six dollars, at least six dollars

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 3>a week on a twelve pack of flavored Seltzer water,

0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.800
<v Speaker 3>Like the flavored seltz water section that my grocery is

0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:51.000
<v Speaker 3>now an entire aisle.

0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 2>I know, I know, it's like kind of crazy. I

0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:54.360
<v Speaker 2>am just kind of blown away. I mean, and I

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.000
<v Speaker 2>feel like all we should do is be drinking water.

0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 3>To be quite honest, I actually quit drinking Katie too

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.800
<v Speaker 3>years ago. I've been California sober for two years. What

0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:03.800
<v Speaker 3>do you think about weed?

0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.080
<v Speaker 7>I mean, I think that's that's a great example of

0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 7>one way a consumer. Some consumers would claim that's not healthy,

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 7>and some would say it is healthy. I think sort

0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 7>of in a similar vein Matt, we asked in our

0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:21.040
<v Speaker 7>study what people think about GOP one's versus like having

0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:25.160
<v Speaker 7>more of a body positivity self acceptance message. Ninety percent

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 7>of people said self acceptance was actually healthier body positivity

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.760
<v Speaker 7>messages as compared to GLP one. So I mean, I

0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 7>think you see all these trade offs. Same goes with weed.

0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:39.200
<v Speaker 7>Some people would say, hey, sober sober, not California sober.

0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 7>Others would say, do what you got to do that

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.000
<v Speaker 7>works for your lifestyle. All right.

0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 2>So we're in an economy that some would say that

0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.160
<v Speaker 2>there are a lot of I think it's not even some.

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:49.640
<v Speaker 2>I think it's safe to say that there are a

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.360
<v Speaker 2>lot of Americans out there that are just struggling to

0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.320
<v Speaker 2>kind of get by month to month. So having said that,

0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:57.040
<v Speaker 2>you know, I don't know if something came up in

0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 2>your survey about you know, when the economies toky, it's

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 2>harder to make those smarter, healthier decisions.

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, absolutely so some of what we saw about one

0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.880
<v Speaker 7>in three consumers said that finances are one of the

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:13.000
<v Speaker 7>things that stand in the way of them being healthier,

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 7>and then one and four said access, so maybe not

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 7>being able to you know, get to the right foods

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:20.440
<v Speaker 7>or get to a gym or what have you. So

0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:23.800
<v Speaker 7>there certainly are trade offs that happen there. But part

0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:25.840
<v Speaker 7>of the other challenge that we're calling out with this

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.440
<v Speaker 7>brief is the issue with health washing, which is sort

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.720
<v Speaker 7>of similar to greenwashing, where everyone's throwing every claim on

0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 7>pack that they can it's just ultimately confusing consumers when

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:39.280
<v Speaker 7>really we should be looking at you know, public health

0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 7>and public policy for more consistent messages on like you know,

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.120
<v Speaker 7>fresh fruits and vegetables and all of that, and just

0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:48.120
<v Speaker 7>like being thoughtful about what the whole lifestyle looks like

0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 7>and where consumers can kind of make those trade offs.

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:55.240
<v Speaker 3>You got your undergrad and ann arbor, right, you got

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.360
<v Speaker 3>your MBA in Chicago, You're in Pittsburgh right now, You're

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:02.000
<v Speaker 3>like a solidly Midwest That's right.

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:03.040
<v Speaker 5>Is it easier?

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.439
<v Speaker 3>Is it easier there because you're closer to the farms

0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:08.600
<v Speaker 3>and natural food, or do you think on the coasts,

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, is there a difference between like flyover Country

0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:12.760
<v Speaker 3>and New York and LA.

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.920
<v Speaker 7>You know, just to clarify, those of us from Pittsburgh

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.080
<v Speaker 7>don't actually consider ourselves midwestern. So I never grew up

0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:24.760
<v Speaker 7>being Midwestern. But no, just you know, just a nitpick,

0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 7>but no, but I am, well, let's be honest, No,

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.119
<v Speaker 7>I think you know, you do get a little bit

0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:32.760
<v Speaker 7>of both. So it depends on what you're looking access to.

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.360
<v Speaker 7>The nice thing about you know, middle of the countries

0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 7>there it does tend to be a little bit more affordable,

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 7>but it really just kind of depends on Again, it

0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.680
<v Speaker 7>goes back to what people define as healthy. So is

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:48.040
<v Speaker 7>healthy local versus organic? And there are arguments to be

0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 7>made in either way. If you're getting meat that's organic

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 7>versus something that's maybe not organic, But like hasn't you know,

0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 7>the supply chain is a lot shorter, so I think

0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:00.280
<v Speaker 7>once again you get into those same sort of base.

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.439
<v Speaker 7>And that's the whole challenge with health and wellness is

0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.160
<v Speaker 7>you can kind of call anything health and wellness.

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, this was fun California's sober.

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:09.200
<v Speaker 3>I liked it.

0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:10.160
<v Speaker 2>I know people are.

0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:12.680
<v Speaker 3>I'm a Midwestern boy as well. I will point out

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:14.800
<v Speaker 3>go buck Eyes. I thought you were good.

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 7>Oh no, I was gonna say go Blue. I haven't

0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:21.720
<v Speaker 7>Jim Horba bobble Head behind me. Sorry, disagree the bane.

0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:22.280
<v Speaker 5>Of my existence.

0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:24.639
<v Speaker 3>They're good lately, you know I love it.

0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:26.200
<v Speaker 2>Katie Thomas, thanks so much.

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:26.600
<v Speaker 5>Be well.

0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.560
<v Speaker 2>Let She's a lead at the Carney Consumer Institute, joining

0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:33.920
<v Speaker 2>us there in Pittsburgh. Organic natural, what do you buy?

0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:35.439
<v Speaker 5>You know what? I will be honest.

0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:41.879
<v Speaker 3>I was all about organic uh for years until I

0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.520
<v Speaker 3>moved here and had kids and like money got tight.

0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.600
<v Speaker 3>I used to have so much disposable income as a

0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:50.280
<v Speaker 3>single guy. And now that I'm married and diffay Westchester

0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 3>taxes and I'm paying like you know, college administration prices

0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.880
<v Speaker 3>for preschool. I just buy whatever's cheapest.

0:18:57.600 --> 0:18:59.760
<v Speaker 2>I know it changes, right when you have everything's expensive.

0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:05.040
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:08.040
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0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.040
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0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:14.320
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0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:18.200
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0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:23.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, so from the Magic Kingdom to the platform

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.520
<v Speaker 2>formerly known as Twitter, ya hear thisss leader, there's a

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 2>few things.

0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.600
<v Speaker 3>Well, and Silicon Valley at large, right, I mean, there's

0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 3>so much going on out there, especially with Elon Musk's companies,

0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.840
<v Speaker 3>not just Tesla and Twitter, but also Neurlink. Max Chafkin

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:40.760
<v Speaker 3>covers a lot of this stuff for us. And but

0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 3>before we get to all of that, I want to

0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 3>throw them a curveball.

0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:45.639
<v Speaker 6>What I'm ready.

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.720
<v Speaker 3>I just ordered The Contrarian, so I think you'll see

0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 3>a bump in your in your revenue there. Max wrote

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:54.879
<v Speaker 3>The Contrarian, which is a story about Peter Tile and

0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:58.960
<v Speaker 3>Silicon Valley. Right, No, and it's because he was on

0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:02.200
<v Speaker 3>the Joe Rogan Experience. Did you listen to Peter Teal

0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.040
<v Speaker 3>on the Rogan Experience?

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:06.960
<v Speaker 6>You know it's it's three hour it's three hours long.

0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:09.439
<v Speaker 6>I actually have not a confession, have not made it

0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:12.440
<v Speaker 6>through the whole thing. And it's been you're sort of

0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:15.960
<v Speaker 6>hinting at this, but the but the appearance has been memed.

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:18.919
<v Speaker 6>There's a lot of stumbling, a lot of sort of

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:23.840
<v Speaker 6>amusing back and forth between Rogan floating various i'd say

0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:29.400
<v Speaker 6>rogan interests and Teal attempting kind of graciously to sidestep those.

0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:34.040
<v Speaker 3>It was amazing. First of all, you get a real

0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:40.040
<v Speaker 3>read on how deep Rogan is into any right wing

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:42.920
<v Speaker 3>conspiracy theory. I mean, he's all in on all of them,

0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:45.520
<v Speaker 3>and then Peter Teal seems to kind of debunk them

0:20:45.560 --> 0:20:48.200
<v Speaker 3>one by one. On the other hand, Rogan asks Peter

0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:51.840
<v Speaker 3>Teal like a couple in three hours, two tough questions,

0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:55.920
<v Speaker 3>and both times Teal is just absolutely frozen. He says,

0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.880
<v Speaker 3>how come climate science isn't real science? And Teal's like, uh,

0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 3>well uh and doesn't have a great answer for it.

0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.960
<v Speaker 3>He also asks, you know why these left wing philanthropy

0:21:08.000 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 3>businesses are suspicious? And Teal also freezes there. So I

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.520
<v Speaker 3>just thought it was just such a fascinating waste of

0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:17.760
<v Speaker 3>three hours. I feel like I need.

0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:19.480
<v Speaker 2>To know more, all right, Well, I want to know

0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:21.440
<v Speaker 2>more from Max because there is a story on the

0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:26.400
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg about those that are financing Twitter or formerly known

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.000
<v Speaker 2>as Twitter, now known as x So there is that

0:21:29.119 --> 0:21:32.239
<v Speaker 2>story Dana Hall and Rachel Met's putting it out. What

0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:34.040
<v Speaker 2>do we need to know about that? And what's interesting

0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:34.440
<v Speaker 2>for you.

0:21:34.400 --> 0:21:36.439
<v Speaker 3>Peter til is not an investor in X.

0:21:36.760 --> 0:21:40.240
<v Speaker 6>Not no, no, Peter Teal. Although plenty of friends of

0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:43.520
<v Speaker 6>Elon Musk, Peter tele and Musk have a sort of

0:21:43.560 --> 0:21:47.359
<v Speaker 6>fraught relationship, they're more like frenemies. This list, though, a

0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 6>lot of these names are going to be known to

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.399
<v Speaker 6>people who have who have followed either X or the

0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.159
<v Speaker 6>whole saga. It's it's a lot of people who have

0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:58.199
<v Speaker 6>close ties to Musk. So Larry Ellison, uh, the you know,

0:21:58.280 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 6>software billionaire, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital, a Saudi

0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:07.480
<v Speaker 6>prince and recent Horowitz Sequoia venture capital firms, both both

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:10.920
<v Speaker 6>of whom have sort of are tied closely with stuff

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:14.000
<v Speaker 6>that Musk is doing. Now. The biggest surprise is that

0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:19.119
<v Speaker 6>Sean Combs Diddy was an investor in the in the buyout.

0:22:19.880 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 3>So it's interesting to me that. First of all, I

0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:25.639
<v Speaker 3>love to say Prince Al Walid bin Tlal's name, so

0:22:25.680 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 3>I wanted to do that one time.

0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:27.920
<v Speaker 5>It's super fun.

0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:32.679
<v Speaker 3>And uh, Bill Ackman is an investor as well, and

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:37.440
<v Speaker 3>he has been so heavy, such a heavy, super user

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:41.439
<v Speaker 3>on Twitter. He even thought he could, I guess, raise

0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:44.879
<v Speaker 3>and market a closed end fund with all of his followers,

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.880
<v Speaker 3>but that was not so successful. Do you get any

0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:51.720
<v Speaker 3>interesting insight from this list other than kind of the

0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:52.720
<v Speaker 3>gossipy side of it.

0:22:54.000 --> 0:22:56.560
<v Speaker 6>I mean, I think, like, like I said, we knew

0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:59.920
<v Speaker 6>a lot of these names because because of other last

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:02.320
<v Speaker 6>suits and so on had shown. Some of these people

0:23:02.359 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 6>came up in Elon Musk's text messages, you know, back

0:23:05.600 --> 0:23:09.640
<v Speaker 6>in twenty twenty two, and when he was discussing the buyout,

0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:15.400
<v Speaker 6>I'd say this the acquisition of X and Elon Musk's

0:23:15.480 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 6>you know, running it has always been a bit of

0:23:17.400 --> 0:23:20.560
<v Speaker 6>a head scratcher. It's never totally made sense. Like as

0:23:20.560 --> 0:23:23.760
<v Speaker 6>a business he overpaid for the company, which is part

0:23:23.800 --> 0:23:25.000
<v Speaker 6>of the reason he tried to get out of it,

0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:27.960
<v Speaker 6>and for the investors has always been a head scratcher.

0:23:28.160 --> 0:23:30.000
<v Speaker 6>I think really like a lot of these guys who

0:23:30.040 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 6>are in this company are just like the banks that

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:34.639
<v Speaker 6>loaned him the money to do the buyout, are hoping

0:23:34.680 --> 0:23:38.000
<v Speaker 6>for further connections to Elon Musk, you know, to be

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:39.639
<v Speaker 6>involved in whatever the next deal is.

0:23:39.760 --> 0:23:42.000
<v Speaker 2>Well, maybe they should get a chip put into their brain.

0:23:42.720 --> 0:23:46.000
<v Speaker 2>No easy segue only got about forty five seconds. I'm sorry, Max,

0:23:46.040 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 2>because the little Rogan thing ate up some time. What

0:23:49.840 --> 0:23:53.080
<v Speaker 2>do we need to know though about this second implantation?

0:23:54.040 --> 0:23:57.199
<v Speaker 6>So yeah, Neuralink, that's Elon Mus's brain implant company, announced

0:23:57.200 --> 0:23:59.480
<v Speaker 6>they put a chip in a second patient. Now I

0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:03.360
<v Speaker 6>should say this. The chip essentially allows the patients who

0:24:03.359 --> 0:24:07.480
<v Speaker 6>are paralyzed, you know, unable to move a mouse, a

0:24:07.560 --> 0:24:10.399
<v Speaker 6>cursor mouser type. Before this, they're able to basically use

0:24:10.440 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 6>a computer. It's exciting, but very very very early days.

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:17.639
<v Speaker 6>I mean, this is like the earliest kind of clinical trial.

0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:20.760
<v Speaker 6>It's not even a clinical trial, it's like a preliminary investigation.

0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:23.800
<v Speaker 6>So it's gonna be many years before we see any

0:24:23.840 --> 0:24:26.959
<v Speaker 6>of this commercially, at least for Elon Musk, although certainly

0:24:26.960 --> 0:24:30.080
<v Speaker 6>good news for Musk and for his company, Neuralink.

0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:33.000
<v Speaker 2>Always pretty cool stuff. Listen, Max, thank you so much,

0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:34.840
<v Speaker 2>and thanks for putting up with Matt Miller.

0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:36.199
<v Speaker 5>I think you know what.

0:24:36.320 --> 0:24:38.520
<v Speaker 3>I'm so excited to read this book because you're going

0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:40.600
<v Speaker 3>to learn more. You need to learn more about somebody

0:24:40.640 --> 0:24:43.119
<v Speaker 3>who essentially is trying to buy himself into the.

0:24:43.080 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 2>White We actually had Max on to talk about the

0:24:45.080 --> 0:24:46.600
<v Speaker 2>book a lot.

0:24:46.760 --> 0:24:48.359
<v Speaker 3>I missed that episode.

0:24:49.280 --> 0:24:53.160
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live

0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:56.080
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0:24:56.200 --> 0:24:59.159
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0:24:59.160 --> 0:25:02.440
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0:25:02.520 --> 0:25:06.560
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0:25:08.119 --> 0:25:10.840
<v Speaker 2>M Broommack.

0:25:11.960 --> 0:25:14.440
<v Speaker 3>Journal, Now about you? Let me drive?

0:25:14.960 --> 0:25:20.159
<v Speaker 2>No, no, no, no, alright please, I'll do gravels.

0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:21.000
<v Speaker 7>Let's wait.

0:25:21.240 --> 0:25:21.960
<v Speaker 2>I want to drive.

0:25:24.240 --> 0:25:26.120
<v Speaker 7>It's a question time.

0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:33.320
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes do for me? Well,

0:25:33.160 --> 0:25:35.280
<v Speaker 1>yelling on Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:35.320 --> 0:25:37.160
<v Speaker 2>All right, he's definitely dancing a little bit. We're getting

0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:40.320
<v Speaker 2>closer to the closing eighteen minutes away. Here, got stocks

0:25:40.320 --> 0:25:42.520
<v Speaker 2>pretty much near their lows of the session. Charlie, of course,

0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:44.480
<v Speaker 2>just breaking down the numbers. I do feel like Matt,

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:45.399
<v Speaker 2>we're kind of all waiting for.

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:47.880
<v Speaker 3>At one point, we were just half a percent away

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:51.200
<v Speaker 3>from another record high, right, we're looking for fifty six

0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:53.639
<v Speaker 3>sixty seven. We got closer and closer that on the

0:25:53.720 --> 0:25:55.600
<v Speaker 3>S and P five hundred, and then we just fell away.

0:25:55.720 --> 0:25:57.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think we're kind of running out of steam,

0:25:57.560 --> 0:25:59.600
<v Speaker 2>but maybe just waiting for Jay Powell tomorrow. Let's see

0:25:59.600 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 2>what our to the closed guest has to say about

0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:05.879
<v Speaker 2>it all. Hamilton Lane is co CEO. He is, actually,

0:26:05.880 --> 0:26:08.959
<v Speaker 2>I should say Hamilton Lane co CEO. Eric Hirsh and

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:11.719
<v Speaker 2>he joins us from Pennsylvania. Good to have you here

0:26:11.760 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 2>with us. Eric, How are you? And just let's start

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:16.840
<v Speaker 2>big and broad. When you look at the market environment,

0:26:17.480 --> 0:26:19.479
<v Speaker 2>what are the kind of things that you are focusing on?

0:26:19.560 --> 0:26:21.359
<v Speaker 2>Is it Jay Powell tomorrow? Is it something else?

0:26:22.720 --> 0:26:25.160
<v Speaker 8>So it's not Powell tomorrow. And again, happy to be here.

0:26:25.560 --> 0:26:27.600
<v Speaker 8>So I think we know what we're going to hear tomorrow.

0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:29.240
<v Speaker 8>I think we're going to clearly start to see rates

0:26:29.280 --> 0:26:32.280
<v Speaker 8>coming down. But I think sort of from our perspective

0:26:32.359 --> 0:26:35.720
<v Speaker 8>sort of the concerns of recession or hard landing are

0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:36.440
<v Speaker 8>sort of just.

0:26:36.400 --> 0:26:38.040
<v Speaker 5>Grossly overstated right now.

0:26:38.320 --> 0:26:41.560
<v Speaker 8>We're just not seeing the consumer spending in the areas

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:43.119
<v Speaker 8>that really matter and drive the economy.

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:44.360
<v Speaker 5>We're not seeing those let up.

0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:50.960
<v Speaker 3>I mean, all of the sort of standout consumer issues

0:26:51.000 --> 0:26:53.840
<v Speaker 3>and earnings reports have been down arrow stories right like

0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:57.080
<v Speaker 3>they're not booking enough at trip Advisor or at Airbnb.

0:26:57.240 --> 0:27:01.080
<v Speaker 3>We're not saying growth to Disney's parks. Even you know,

0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:04.120
<v Speaker 3>people at Walmart if they're buying more stuff, but it's

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:08.439
<v Speaker 3>actually sort of people, wealthy people coming down from you know,

0:27:08.560 --> 0:27:09.439
<v Speaker 3>higher end stories.

0:27:09.440 --> 0:27:11.560
<v Speaker 2>I've done that. I'd like I've traded down on brands,

0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 2>like for things like, you know, plastic bags or something.

0:27:13.800 --> 0:27:15.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm like, a, you know, I'm.

0:27:15.080 --> 0:27:18.360
<v Speaker 3>Okay, buy plastic bags. I know you're an evil person.

0:27:18.080 --> 0:27:22.119
<v Speaker 5>Care right, so you can't be buying plastic bags. Yeah, seriously.

0:27:22.760 --> 0:27:24.760
<v Speaker 3>Now, on the other hand, if you look at the

0:27:24.760 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 3>retail sales numbers, they're good.

0:27:27.600 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 5>You know.

0:27:27.920 --> 0:27:30.359
<v Speaker 3>If you look at GDP numbers, they're good.

0:27:30.560 --> 0:27:31.960
<v Speaker 5>So, uh, you know the.

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:34.119
<v Speaker 8>Issue, Matt, I think I think we got to be

0:27:34.160 --> 0:27:37.359
<v Speaker 8>careful to not sort of conflate pieces here. Just because

0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:41.240
<v Speaker 8>Disney's theme parks aren't growing is very different than saying

0:27:41.280 --> 0:27:44.800
<v Speaker 8>Disney's theme parks aren't still pretty full. And so to me,

0:27:45.080 --> 0:27:48.240
<v Speaker 8>when we talk about recession hard landing, we need to

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:51.520
<v Speaker 8>see Disney theme parks coming way down. We need to

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:55.160
<v Speaker 8>see airline travel coming way down. We need to see

0:27:55.200 --> 0:27:58.840
<v Speaker 8>restaurants empty, we need to see restaurant pricing way down,

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 8>and that we're just not seeing. I think what we

0:28:02.040 --> 0:28:04.679
<v Speaker 8>have is a real bifurcation in the consumer. There is

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.240
<v Speaker 8>no question that the bottom end of the consumer is

0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:11.199
<v Speaker 8>getting hit hard. There is some social issues around that,

0:28:11.280 --> 0:28:14.440
<v Speaker 8>there are some tragic issues around that, but they are

0:28:14.680 --> 0:28:18.760
<v Speaker 8>truly struggling. The middle class and the upper class, however,

0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:22.360
<v Speaker 8>are continuing to crank away and again for a lot

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:25.280
<v Speaker 8>of them, higher rates have actually been a real benefit

0:28:25.320 --> 0:28:26.400
<v Speaker 8>to cash in the pocket.

0:28:27.960 --> 0:28:30.680
<v Speaker 2>So you guys have what about nine hundred and forty

0:28:30.720 --> 0:28:35.280
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars in assets under management and supervision. So I'm

0:28:35.320 --> 0:28:37.639
<v Speaker 2>just curious. I know you focus a lot on the

0:28:37.640 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 2>private markets. You know, what are you doing with your

0:28:40.760 --> 0:28:43.440
<v Speaker 2>client money? And by the way, I do buy a

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 2>few ziplocks, but I use a lot of I've all

0:28:45.720 --> 0:28:49.640
<v Speaker 2>usable bags. I don't use plastic bags in the supermarket

0:28:49.720 --> 0:28:52.160
<v Speaker 2>or anything anymore. Before I get a lot of mail,

0:28:52.400 --> 0:28:54.920
<v Speaker 2>although I might get some hate mail for ziplocks. So,

0:28:54.960 --> 0:28:56.520
<v Speaker 2>having said that, what do you do with client money?

0:28:57.800 --> 0:28:59.520
<v Speaker 5>So we've been active, We are deploying.

0:28:59.560 --> 0:29:01.160
<v Speaker 8>We have a lot lot of capital, Our clients have

0:29:01.160 --> 0:29:02.840
<v Speaker 8>a lot of capital, and we are deploying a lot

0:29:02.880 --> 0:29:05.719
<v Speaker 8>of capital. The private markets, I think, very different than

0:29:05.800 --> 0:29:08.960
<v Speaker 8>kind of the public market dynamic are continuing to expand.

0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:12.440
<v Speaker 8>There are just more and more private companies getting created.

0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:15.480
<v Speaker 8>And whether it's here in the US or outside the US,

0:29:15.520 --> 0:29:18.800
<v Speaker 8>whereas on the public market side, the number of publicly

0:29:18.880 --> 0:29:21.800
<v Speaker 8>traded companies around the globe that is not a big

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 8>growing group of companies, and so that is generally shrinking

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 8>in most markets. As being public is challenging, it's expensive,

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:33.200
<v Speaker 8>it's time consuming. We know we are public, and so

0:29:33.400 --> 0:29:35.080
<v Speaker 8>I think for a lot of investors, they want to

0:29:35.080 --> 0:29:37.240
<v Speaker 8>get access to the sort of the broader, growing part

0:29:37.240 --> 0:29:40.880
<v Speaker 8>of the economy, and that tends to be the private side. Specifically,

0:29:41.160 --> 0:29:42.640
<v Speaker 8>There's been a couple of areas that I think are

0:29:42.640 --> 0:29:44.720
<v Speaker 8>attracting a lot of the capital in a good way.

0:29:45.160 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 8>One private credit, So regional banks really kind of hamstrung

0:29:49.480 --> 0:29:52.560
<v Speaker 8>in this environment out of the lending business. Private credit

0:29:52.640 --> 0:29:55.760
<v Speaker 8>has sort of stepped in and filled that gap. Infrastructure,

0:29:55.800 --> 0:29:58.440
<v Speaker 8>whether it's here in the US or in Europe, there

0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:02.959
<v Speaker 8>is real need for major infrastructure spending, and so private

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:07.240
<v Speaker 8>infrastructure really is going to be the gap filler relative

0:30:07.280 --> 0:30:09.320
<v Speaker 8>to what the governments are doing. So those are two

0:30:09.400 --> 0:30:12.040
<v Speaker 8>interesting areas with interesting returning characteristics.

0:30:12.560 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 3>I wonder what you think about the aging population and healthcare,

0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 3>because we've had investor after investor on my show Bloomberg

0:30:20.840 --> 0:30:23.479
<v Speaker 3>Open interest mornings from nine to eleven on Bloomberg Television.

0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:28.959
<v Speaker 3>Who are saying, you know what, the demographics are so compelling,

0:30:29.520 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 3>and you know, pricing power is definitely there when it

0:30:32.840 --> 0:30:34.560
<v Speaker 3>comes to saving your life. I mean, look, how many

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:36.320
<v Speaker 3>people are willing to pay one thousand dollars a month

0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 3>for GLP ones? Is that trade still not too crowded?

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:44.320
<v Speaker 8>Well, we know, Matt, that osa E balls are not

0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:46.280
<v Speaker 8>going to be the only solution for healthcare, so right

0:30:46.360 --> 0:30:49.000
<v Speaker 8>to more than just that, and I think that is

0:30:49.040 --> 0:30:52.040
<v Speaker 8>an interesting trade. So healthcare, whether it's in the pharma space,

0:30:52.440 --> 0:30:55.840
<v Speaker 8>whether it's in the service provider space. So again, aging

0:30:55.920 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 8>population of boomers with a lot of capital, I don't

0:30:59.240 --> 0:31:01.480
<v Speaker 8>expect that we're going to see all of them heading

0:31:01.520 --> 0:31:04.960
<v Speaker 8>into kind of group run facilities. There's going to be

0:31:05.000 --> 0:31:08.080
<v Speaker 8>an awful lot of care at home and that is

0:31:08.160 --> 0:31:12.120
<v Speaker 8>going to create an incredible growth in private nursing. That's

0:31:12.120 --> 0:31:15.280
<v Speaker 8>been a big area for the private markets. Private healthcare

0:31:15.320 --> 0:31:18.640
<v Speaker 8>providers and sort of general home help. Those are other

0:31:18.640 --> 0:31:20.720
<v Speaker 8>big areas for good capital absorption.

0:31:21.000 --> 0:31:22.360
<v Speaker 2>Hey, one thing I want to ask you though about

0:31:22.400 --> 0:31:24.920
<v Speaker 2>private credit specifically, And listen, the last few years at

0:31:24.920 --> 0:31:27.920
<v Speaker 2>Milkin and I've been there. It's like that's all anybody

0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:30.400
<v Speaker 2>ever talks about. It's not the public markets, it's private credit.

0:31:30.720 --> 0:31:34.080
<v Speaker 2>Having said that, you have increasingly more and more big

0:31:34.200 --> 0:31:37.360
<v Speaker 2>firms that have gotten involved in private credit. You've got

0:31:37.440 --> 0:31:42.280
<v Speaker 2>new market entrants, and so that extra competition has definitely

0:31:42.680 --> 0:31:46.520
<v Speaker 2>pushed down some of those returns. What are you seeing

0:31:46.560 --> 0:31:48.680
<v Speaker 2>on your private credit return investments?

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:52.920
<v Speaker 8>So I would say a couple of things can be true.

0:31:52.960 --> 0:31:54.600
<v Speaker 8>We can see more capital coming in.

0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:58.120
<v Speaker 5>We are. We can see more entrants coming in. We are.

0:31:58.480 --> 0:32:02.480
<v Speaker 8>We can see the big getting big. They are that

0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:07.440
<v Speaker 8>gap and that void that the banks have left very large,

0:32:07.640 --> 0:32:10.640
<v Speaker 8>and the amount of dry capital that's sort of sitting

0:32:10.640 --> 0:32:12.920
<v Speaker 8>there in the private markets that needs to be deployed.

0:32:13.160 --> 0:32:15.880
<v Speaker 8>And oh, by the way, leverage buyouts they're going to

0:32:16.000 --> 0:32:19.040
<v Speaker 8>largely get financed by private credit. They're not going to

0:32:19.040 --> 0:32:21.720
<v Speaker 8>go into the bond market to do that. That game

0:32:21.800 --> 0:32:24.600
<v Speaker 8>is largely moved away again from not only the regional banks,

0:32:24.600 --> 0:32:27.080
<v Speaker 8>but sort of the big bracket banks are not the

0:32:27.120 --> 0:32:30.640
<v Speaker 8>big providers anymore of kind of the the the lending

0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 8>capital inside of a leverage buyout. And so we're still

0:32:34.080 --> 0:32:36.840
<v Speaker 8>seeing the returns being very resilient. You got to be

0:32:36.880 --> 0:32:39.880
<v Speaker 8>careful again not to say that every private credit manager

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:42.240
<v Speaker 8>is fantastic and no one's going to have any issues.

0:32:42.680 --> 0:32:45.040
<v Speaker 8>That's not true. But again this is kind of picking

0:32:45.080 --> 0:32:47.840
<v Speaker 8>and choosing. But if I'm painting with the broadbrush, I

0:32:48.000 --> 0:32:50.600
<v Speaker 8>ud say, returns there look very good, very good as

0:32:50.640 --> 0:32:56.560
<v Speaker 8>what sixteen Yeah, I would say again we're talking about credit, yeah,

0:32:56.600 --> 0:32:59.080
<v Speaker 8>you know, with credit protection. So I think what you're

0:32:59.120 --> 0:33:01.560
<v Speaker 8>talking about is kind of a nine to thirteen percent

0:33:01.640 --> 0:33:04.840
<v Speaker 8>rate to return. And again on a relative basis to

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:08.280
<v Speaker 8>what you're sort of seeing in the public markets for

0:33:08.520 --> 0:33:12.160
<v Speaker 8>credit risk with very low leverage ratios, I think a

0:33:12.200 --> 0:33:14.800
<v Speaker 8>lot of investors are really happy to go take home

0:33:14.840 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 8>a ten percent rate to return.

0:33:16.320 --> 0:33:16.600
<v Speaker 6>All right.

0:33:16.680 --> 0:33:18.240
<v Speaker 2>Going to leave it on that note, Hey, Eric, thank

0:33:18.240 --> 0:33:19.600
<v Speaker 2>you so much. Appreciate it.

0:33:19.720 --> 0:33:20.240
<v Speaker 3>Eric Hirsch.

0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:23.120
<v Speaker 2>He's the co chief executive officer at Hamilton Lane. Joining

0:33:23.160 --> 0:33:24.720
<v Speaker 2>us there from Pennsylvania.

0:33:24.960 --> 0:33:29.640
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:33:29.760 --> 0:33:33.480
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you hit your podcast. Listen live weekday

0:33:33.520 --> 0:33:37.120
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0:33:37.160 --> 0:33:40.480
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0:33:40.520 --> 0:33:43.480
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0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:47.720
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