1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: straight Fire? Fam, It's means Jason McIntire Straight Fire for Tuesday, 3 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: September seven. We are forty eight hours away from the 4 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: start of the NFL season. We got a great podcast 5 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: to get you just to wet your beak for Cowboys bucks. 6 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: My main man, Bernie Frado, big Vegas guy, big gambler. 7 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna call him degenerate. He just knows football. Uh, 8 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 1: So we'll chop it up for twenty minutes on Week one. 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: He gives a couple of season long predictions that he 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: really likes. It's gonna be a big week for NFL. 11 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: Obviously we will not forget college football. Um. But also 12 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: I just want to thank you guys for the kind 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: words about the podcast with Matthew Berry. UM. Apparently that 14 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 1: helped a lot of folks in their fantasy drafts. Uh. 15 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: Last night as well as today, there is a big 16 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: fantasy draft day. UM. I also want to add my son. 17 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: I probably stepped in it with the wife on this one, 18 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: but I had my son do to fantasy drafts. He 19 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: had never done one before. He got in a league 20 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: with a bunch of his buddies, and then another one 21 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: with some of his buddies. Um, and of course they 22 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: were kind of timed right before dinner and during dinner, 23 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: so that did not go overwhell in the mc entire household. 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: That being said, UM, he's pretty thrilled with how it 25 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: shook out. And UM, I'm just gonna say this, I 26 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: don't put an ounce of stock in the darn Yahoo 27 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: report card nonsense for for starters. They don't like Gus 28 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: Edwards this year. They're like, oh, Goss Edwards all he's 29 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: not very good. And if you take Gus is back up. Uh, 30 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: the kid Williams who I started talking about last week. 31 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: By the way, Justice Hill, who was fighting for that 32 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: backup to Gus the Bus, He's out for the season. Okay, 33 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: the Ravens are are desperate. They're calling Levian Bell. I'm 34 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:50,639 Speaker 1: telling you the kid Williams, if you're draft is tonight, 35 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: you might want to get him earlier than expected. Gus 36 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: the Bus obviously is a top three round guy. But 37 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: the darn Yahoo grades are silly. It's weird. I'm not 38 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: in any es in or CBS leagues. I'm in I 39 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: think four in Yahoo, and my son's in two. Um, 40 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: and now my daughter, you know, was watching us and 41 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 1: getting into it, and I think we're gonna get her 42 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: into the fantasy game next year. Uh. And found another 43 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: dad who's interested, so we'll just have to cobble together. 44 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: Eight more should not be a problem in our sports 45 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: loving town. And also, UM, you know, I kind of 46 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: like sports, so I shouldn't have a hard time wrangling 47 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: some other football dads to get their daughters into fantasy football. Uh. 48 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: One quick gambling note before we get to the gambling 49 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 1: podcast with Bernie Frado. Congrats to the dude who had 50 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 1: a ten team parlay in college football that hit unbelievable 51 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 1: ten dollars won him seventy eight thousand dollars. I'm sorry. 52 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: It was a ten dollar fourteen team college parley, fourteen unders. 53 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: He had the under in Yukon, fres No State, Boise State, 54 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: u c F, South Florida, NC State, e C, U 55 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: APP State, UNC, Virginia Tech. This guy's basically just throwing 56 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: darts and saying, let me go all unders and they 57 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: all hit Duke Charlotte, Oh do you wake? Louisville, Oh Miss, 58 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: which was the final leg Monday night. That was an 59 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: easy winner. I think it hit landed on like sixty 60 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: something and it was under seventy five and a half, 61 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 1: Utah State, Washington State, Oregon State, per Due. I mean, 62 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: this guy turned ten bucks into thousand. That is a 63 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: home run. Now, I'm gonna just point this out the 64 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: entire UH gambling community. You know, the hardcore gamblers um 65 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: are just gonna be so upset that this is even 66 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 1: out there because they'll be like, no, people are gonna 67 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: do stupid parlays. Here's a fun fact, guys, parlays are fun, 68 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: and I think most NFL weeks I will do twelve 69 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: team parlays. I'll lay like, I don't know, five or 70 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: six of them, maybe ten of them anywhere from like 71 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: you know, one five ten dollars of pop and if 72 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: one of them hits, you're basically set for the season 73 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: on the parlay front, because you could miss ten a 74 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: week for seventeen weeks and it don't matter if you 75 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: have one of those. And they're fun. Again, I'm not 76 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: talking about flushing big big bucks. No, it's stupid to 77 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: do parlays. That's dumb. Teasers will get to them later 78 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: in the podcast. Obviously, your best advantage is, you know, 79 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: uh straight up bets where you can find an edge. 80 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 1: We had a good couge football weekend. I anticipate a 81 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: good NFL weekend. But as you guys know, the toughest 82 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: not to crack in sports gambling is the NFL. It's really, really, 83 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: really difficult. Um, but that's the fun in it. Um. 84 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 1: Obviously I'm in the circuit contest will do plenty of 85 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: that this year. UM and Uh. I don't really have 86 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: any deep thoughts on the Louisville Old Miss game, although 87 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: I will point out the kid from Ole Miss did 88 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: look pretty sharp corral. Uh. If you remember, we had 89 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:55,840 Speaker 1: a guest on the pod last week who talked up 90 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: his Heisman chances. Um, I mean old Lane Kiffin just 91 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: puts it on people. Five and sixty nine yards of 92 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: total offense and folks, they had fourteen penalties for a 93 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: buck and they still won by twenty plus. It was 94 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: at halftime. Listen. I'm just this is obvious, that should 95 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: be obvious to anybody who follows UH college football. But 96 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin is a great offensive mind. He was at 97 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: Alabama and everybody said, oh, anybody could do that with 98 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: five stars. Well he's doing the same damn thing at 99 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: all miss And I don't think it's crazy to say 100 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: that Lane Kiffin is gonna be coaching in some capacity 101 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: if he wants to. In the NFL, he was, he 102 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: was obviously too young when he got there the first time, 103 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: flamed out badly and quickly, way too big of an ego. 104 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: The ego hasn't totally gone away, but you get older, 105 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: you get wiser. Let's just be honest. Lane Kiffin is 106 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 1: really an intelligent football offensive mind. That's undeniable. Now, is 107 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: he gonna be a head coach? He's probably a little 108 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: bit of ways away from that. Would he take an 109 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator job or would he rather take continue to 110 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,080 Speaker 1: take head coaching jobs at college football? I mean, let's it. 111 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,679 Speaker 1: He was at the top when he was coaching USC 112 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: what a little over a decade ago, and he flamed 113 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: out rock bottom and guess what he's coaching in the 114 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 1: SEC now and he's got a high span candidate Like 115 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: it's just it's it is cool. The the whole build 116 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: up tear down thing is just so big in sports media. 117 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: They love to build you up and then tear you 118 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: down just as quickly as they built you up. Chip 119 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: Kelly knows that well chip Kelly bouncing back. I mean 120 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:28,239 Speaker 1: that guy was at rock bottom very recently after massive 121 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: highs with Oregon and the Philadelphia Eagles, and then he 122 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: got torn down. Oh he's a genius. You know who 123 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 1: they want badly is McVeigh. That's who the media wants 124 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: and they like they listen, McVeigh was a boy genius 125 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: with the Rams. He gets to the Super Bowl and 126 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, you know, uh, they fall back. 127 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: Genius really is he is not? They're smart, like the 128 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: mcveigh's what not even thirty five years old. The guy 129 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: definitely is one of the best football minds in the 130 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: game right now, that's obvious. There's a reason that the 131 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: Rams are an offensive jugger. And every year and they've that, 132 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: everybody just raids their coaching staff almost every year. They 133 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: lost their defensive coordinator, they lost their passing game coordinator. 134 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: Like every year, people are coming after whatever the Rams 135 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: have in the coaching department for a reason. Mcphah is 136 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: that good hands another one. But the media doesn't want 137 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: to give these guys props because it's like, oh, if 138 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: you don't win a Super Bowl, your garbage. That's basically 139 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: the barometer. Like Super Bowl or is he like, I 140 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: really that good he lost in the playoffs, Like it's 141 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: just the media sucks. Anyways, I guess I'm part of 142 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: the media. I should shut up without further ado, Let's 143 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: get to Bernie Fratto Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio 144 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch 145 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com 146 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: and within the I Heart Radio app search f s 147 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: R to listen live. Jason likes to think he knows 148 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports 149 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: stands want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a 150 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: guy who does. Let's just say I know a guy 151 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: who knows a guy he knows another guy. All right, 152 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 1: let's welcome into straight fire, a big time radio host 153 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio. But more importantly, he's all in on 154 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: the gambling. And I will say this. I did host 155 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: a Saturday morning radio show for I don't know six years, 156 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: and it got it continued to grow. I would start 157 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: to hear from people during the show like, Hey, that 158 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: was good, and Bernie Fratto needs some credit for giving 159 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: me continuously positive updates. Even when he disagreed, he was like, 160 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: that's a good case. But this guy knows gambling, so 161 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: we're bringing him in NFL Week one, Bernie Fratto, Fox 162 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: Sports Radio. How are you, Bernie Lison? It's terrific to 163 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: be ready for another NFL season when you consider where 164 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: we were last year at this time. I haven't been 165 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 1: this happy since Chuck e Cheese started serving beer that 166 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: Chucky Cheese serves beer. I did not know that I 167 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: have been to Chuck e Cheese in a while. I 168 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 1: love Chuckie Cheese though growing up. Um So, Bernie, wait, 169 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: I want to back up because I think, and it 170 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: might have either been two years ago on my radio 171 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: show or last year on this pot or the radio show, 172 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: you gave me a mind blowing stat on Week one 173 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 1: divisional dogs, and I think you were the one who 174 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: was saying, hey, keep an eye on Jacksonville UM as 175 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 1: a big underdog against the Colton I was like, no, way, man, 176 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:23,079 Speaker 1: don't know way and low and behold Jacksonville delivers. First 177 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 1: of all was that you, and second of all, give 178 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: me a winner in Week one? Bernie? What do you got? Absolutely? Jason, 179 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: I remember that very well. You and I did a 180 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 1: hit on your on your Saturday morning show in and 181 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 1: that particular weekend, there were four Division one dogs and 182 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: they went three and one. And it's a trends since 183 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: two thousand five. That's been absolute money Week one division 184 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: dogs since two thousand five sixty and it can actually continues, 185 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: Jason throughout the month of September. Divisional dogs in September 186 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: fifty there are two. This year. You've Miami visiting New England. 187 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: Miami was catching three then it was when it was 188 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: announced Mac Jones would be the starting quarterback, the line 189 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: went to two and a half. But still you've got 190 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: a classic divisional dog there. And the other great divisional 191 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: dog is Houston catching three at home against Jacksonville, coming 192 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: in with a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback starting 193 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 1: in his first game ever. You know what's interest in, Jason, 194 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: and I give you the best bet real quickly here. 195 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: But week in the history of the NFL, there are 196 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: only been ten quarterbacks drafted number one overall and actually started. 197 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: Check that nine quarterbacks you started Week one in the 198 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: year they were drafted number one, and then the prior 199 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 1: nine they went one and eight. The only quarterback to 200 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: win Week one was Derek Carve All people check that 201 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 1: game bar for the Houston Texans back in two thousand two. 202 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: He's the only one to do it. It hasn't been 203 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: good for rookie quarterbacks drafted number one overall starting week one, 204 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: one in eight you know, passer rating twelve touchdown, sixteen interceptions, 205 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: and so you're going on the road laying points to 206 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: a Houston team. Irrespective of all that, my best bet 207 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:15,079 Speaker 1: Week one is actually the under Jason New England. The 208 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 1: total is right around forty five forty four and a 209 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: half depending where you shop. You've got two you know, 210 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: very stiff defenses. Miami does not have Fitz Magic this year. 211 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 1: If if two of Falters and the other thing, you 212 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 1: have a couple of run first teams and one final 213 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: thing the game last year in the same spot in 214 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: the eleven. So there's no reason for me to believe 215 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: they're gonna score two more snotsdowns with a ricky quarterback 216 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 1: and mac and too stiff defenses, two running games and 217 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: no Fitz Magic. Yeah, alright, these are two great ones 218 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: to dig into. First, of all the divisional dogs things great. 219 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: I wish there were more this weekend, there are not, 220 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: And Bernie, you're gonna hate me. I already bet New 221 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: England on the anticipation Mac was gonna win the starting 222 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 1: job and it would go up to three and a half. 223 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 1: It went the other ways down or two and a half. 224 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: So I feel dumb taking the Patriots favored by three. 225 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: But Bernie, we know Belichick's history against young quarterbacks. He 226 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,839 Speaker 1: has dominated them. This idea that he's had a ton 227 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: of time to prepare for twa after seeing him last year. 228 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: Remember two could do nothing late in the season against them. 229 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: I don't feel good at all about Miami here, So 230 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: I can't take that one. And you know, I like 231 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: Jacksonville this year. That's the team you gotta take, Bernie. 232 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 1: That's a dog with fleas. Okay, you cannot put your 233 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 1: after tax dollars on the Houston Texans, can you. I'm 234 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: not in either game full disclosure. The truths of the 235 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: matter is, I would not surprise me if you get 236 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: a nice victory Week one with of course, uh the 237 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: New England Patriots. These things are always nuanced, and I'm 238 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: guessing too that the lines have moved over the years. 239 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: The markets figure these things out, And the truth of 240 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: the matter is, if this, if this would have been 241 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 1: the same situation a couple of years ago, the lines 242 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: would have been different. I would, but now I think 243 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 1: things do change. I think that you know, books figure 244 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: things out, markets for the things out. Pros figure things out, 245 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: and you're not gonna give them the same price. Give 246 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: me Belichick at home under a field goal. Let's just 247 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 1: blind me bet Bill Belichick. Since two thousand one years six, 248 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: I really can't disagree with your as you as you 249 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: as I've mentioned, Jason, the truth of the matter is 250 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: that my best bet is the under in that game. 251 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 1: I think when you're gonna be the real premium right, 252 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: and I think that's gonna march out. They got a 253 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 1: lot of their defenders back from COVID. They're gonna run 254 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: the ball very well. They got a stable and running backs. 255 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 1: They fleece the Rams, they trade Sonny Michelle and get 256 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: a draft pick for him. They were gonna cut Sony Michelle. 257 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 1: It's how deep they are. So I'm gonna be honest 258 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: with you, Jason. I like your bet. The trend is 259 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: your friend, but it's got to be nuanced. You can't 260 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: just bet it blind. And yeah, I want to let 261 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: me drill deeper on the trend thing, Bernie, because a 262 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: lot of people are hearing that be like trends, they 263 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: don't really matter. The league has changed, blah blah blah. 264 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: I would never bet anything based on a trend. It's 265 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: part of a soup, right, that factors into your equation. Right, 266 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 1: Rookie quarter actually was a great stat on Trevor Lawrence. UM. 267 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: There's a lot of stuff like burns. Is Bill Belichick 268 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 1: eight and three against the spread in his last eleven week? 269 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 1: Ones like like you said he's at home and the 270 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: guy said ample time to prepare for two. It's a 271 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: it's not the trend I would bet the full game on. 272 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: But the trend is part of the equation, is it? 273 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: Is it not? I don't know how much it is, 274 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: whatever you want to factor in, but how much do 275 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: you read into trends. It's about of fifty fifty proposition, 276 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: but again it's nuanced. For instance, two years ago, this 277 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: same team, the same UM two teams in New England, 278 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 1: Miami's catching seven. Now they're down to two and a 279 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: half three. So that's a big difference when you you 280 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: know you're covering as a six and a half seven 281 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: point dog, which the two and a half three point dog. 282 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: One of the big trends that Jason. I'll give you 283 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: an example. NFL quarterbacks. Check that NFL rookie coaches in 284 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: the preseason since two thousand and fifteen one and five 285 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: in their first home game tame because they want to 286 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: win that preseason game. Guess what this year was only 287 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: three and four. Because you find out coaches like Brandon 288 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: Staley who took over he's a disciple, as Sean McVeigh, 289 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: who couldn't care less if he wins in the preseason. 290 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: So these things always have to be researched and verified. 291 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: But I will leave you some good news season. Continue 292 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: to watch divisional dogs throughout the month of September because 293 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: even then blindly since two thousand five, there's still fifty 294 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: for the month, so there's still gonna be value coming 295 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 1: down the road. Why teams are healthy, Hope springs eternal. Uh, 296 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: you know, you don't know who's hit the rhythm yet 297 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: who hasn't. There's always a changing in the guard. Sometimes 298 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: lines can be wrong. You try to find marketed efficiencies 299 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: as you will. I know one of the things you're 300 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: really good at its spotting a bad line. We've talked 301 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: before two weeks ago. Just to digress for a second, 302 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: there's no way in Nebraska should have been laying seven 303 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: points at Illinois and Illinois wins the game. Out right, 304 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: that's a market bad correction. So long. The short of 305 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: it is, you'll see some of that in September in 306 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: the NFL and possibly the tional dogs. Uh. Speaking of 307 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: market inefficiency, Seattle was an underdog in Indie. I don't 308 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: know a month ago, two months ago, before all the 309 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz COVID stuff happened. They're now favored by two 310 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: and a half. That is, I don't know. I don't 311 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: know what you're seeing there in Vegas, but five points 312 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 1: wing uh, four and a half in the span of 313 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: a month. Now, Normally I'd be like, whoa, that's too 314 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 1: big of a move. But I'm out on the Colts 315 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: this year. I just don't like it, the injuries to 316 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: the old line. I'm not a fan of Wentz. We 317 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: know he's gonna have happy feedback there. I don't particularly 318 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: like the Seahawks, but you know that coordinator moves are big, 319 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 1: and this this edition of Waldron the kid from the 320 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: Passing Game coordinator from the Rams. I don't think people 321 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: realize Seattle is gonna come out and really open things up. 322 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: This is not Schottenheimer's Seattle offense. Where are you on 323 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: Seahawks Colts. It's not a game I'm involved in, but 324 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 1: I'm not happit a going against Russell Wilson maying less 325 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: than a field goal or is getting points. Seattle is 326 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: not like the Legion of Boom team that we're years ago. 327 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: But Pete Carroll's teams have a way of really locking 328 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 1: down in September until Teddy Bridgewater beat them two years 329 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 1: ago in September. Currently not lost a home game in 330 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 1: September ever, and he's about the road in September. If 331 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: you look up and you never see Seattle at one 332 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: and three, they're always three and one. But long and 333 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: short of it is, I'm not involved in the game, 334 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: but I I do believe it's a Steam move. You know, 335 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: if I could have got Seattle at two and a 336 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 1: half three weeks ago, I can't justify Land two and 337 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: a half. But to your point, Jason, I would be 338 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: a little dubious about the Colts until we know other 339 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: quarterback uh situation with Carson Wentz ferrets out with with 340 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 1: the new coordinate, how Bernie Fratto are the Carolina Panthers 341 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 1: favored by five points against anyone. Well, that's a very 342 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: good question. That's a market line to me. I think 343 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: Matt Rule has done a fabulous job done there, and 344 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,239 Speaker 1: I actually think Sam Donald was better than people give 345 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 1: him credit for. Five is kind of a dead number. 346 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 1: So if you figure you win the game, you cover. 347 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 1: If you don't, you might lose out right again, I'm 348 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 1: very picky week one, Jason. And in terms of some 349 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: of these games, there are just a lot of issues 350 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: you don't know about. And that's a fair question. I 351 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: I don't know how they're they're favored by five? Yeah, 352 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: how are you able? Bernie to be picky? And week one, 353 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 1: every guy I've talked to who loves to gamble on 354 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: games is just going all wild. They're like, every day, 355 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 1: Oh what about this? What a total side teasers? I mean, 356 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 1: excuse me, I like teasers a lot, Bernie. I know 357 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: the gambling purist will scoff at that, but you're telling 358 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: me if I can't tease like the Buccaneers down to 359 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: one and a half, uh, and then you take like 360 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 1: Kansas City just to win, or maybe getting a point 361 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: in San Francisco to you know, win by one point 362 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: like those are three. You never want to say anything 363 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: to automatic slam Doug, But come on, well, you're right, Jason. Actually, 364 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: the truth of the matter is teasers are more bet 365 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: among pros, and people realize. And I will tell you 366 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: the number one teaser bet week one that the pros 367 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: have fired on is Tampa Bay minus, you know, down 368 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: to minus one and a half, a six point teaser 369 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,399 Speaker 1: um to the rams, I'll check that, or to the 370 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: forty niners down to one and a half. Okay, And 371 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: so the truth of the matter is, uh, teasing works 372 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: when you cross through the key numbers of three, four, six, 373 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: and seven. You want to run from people who say, well, 374 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: sell and Sell is getting nine points, let's tease it 375 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: up to fifteen. There's no way to look like you're 376 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: not allowing the math to work for you. Now, a 377 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 1: couple of rule of thumbs. For the most part, most 378 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 1: pros I know don't bet teasers the first two weeks 379 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: because you're just not sure what can happen, right, I mean, 380 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 1: it looks almost too easy. Tampa Bay should just destroyed Dallas. 381 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: Dallas has all kinds of problems, especially on defense, and 382 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: you don't know if the act healthy and the Lions 383 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: can't get out of their own way. They don't really 384 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: have any talent on the field. The forty nine should 385 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: mall them, right, So you tease them down, you get 386 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: them down below two points, But how do you know? 387 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: There could be an injury, There could be a fumble, 388 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: there could be a kick return, someone back to it. 389 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 1: Anything could happen. The other thing I never recommend on 390 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: teasers is betting teasers for totals. Never use teasers to 391 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 1: bet totals. Has the math doesn't work there either as well. Um. 392 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: I still remember the Lions last year. I think they 393 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 1: were up like twenty six and the fourth quarter I 394 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: felt great. I think it was a divisional dog, right, um, 395 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: and then they just totally collapsed. It ruined their season. 396 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: Uh and they lost in overtime, didn't cover or maybe 397 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:16,959 Speaker 1: they lost at the end of the fourth quarter. But 398 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: you know, the Detroit Lions are dead to me after 399 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: last year. I had some some futures into them. I mean, 400 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: just a total joke of a franchise. Let's go to 401 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,160 Speaker 1: the Falcons, Eagles anything on this game, because I kind 402 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: of have an irrational like for the Falcons. Here is 403 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: that silly of me? In this game, not for the season. No, 404 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: I think I think the thing with the Falcons or 405 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 1: people are gonna overlook them. They still got Matt Ryan. 406 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 1: The Falcons are gonna be an eight nine team, But 407 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be a tough out in every game. 408 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: Uh you remember last year Week three, they had that 409 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: huge lead against Dallas and they coughed it up at 410 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 1: the end in one of those epic collapses. Right now, 411 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,439 Speaker 1: right now, Atlanta, it's a very shot prick by you. 412 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: It's they are very much and under the radar team. 413 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: They lost Julio Jones again. You're gonna get favorable market 414 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 1: lines until the markets figure out at Lant is not 415 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: that bad as people think they are. You're gonna get 416 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: favorable market lines. I think Philadelphia is an absolute hot mess. 417 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: They won't get any money. They just won't get any 418 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: of my money this year. I don't know Nick Sirianni 419 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: inherited a real issue there. And I'm really not sure 420 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: if Jalen Hurts is a major league quarterback. So you 421 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: got two rookie coaches going at each other, But give 422 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: me the Hall of Fame quarterback against the quarterback any day. 423 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 1: I am curious what do you read anything at all 424 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:33,439 Speaker 1: into the Eagles grabbing Gardner Minshew from the Jags? Is 425 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: that just a bargain basement move? Is that like, hey, 426 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: you know what, we're not sold on Hurts? Like what 427 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 1: do you think that is? Because they're obviously not playing 428 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 1: for the playoffs this year. If anything, they're probably end 429 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: up tanking in the second half of the season. What 430 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: do you what you read on the Eagles and Minshew? 431 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: It was two things. First of all, he's a he's 432 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 1: a quarterback who started and had success in the NFL. 433 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: Make it on the first song. They got it for nothing, 434 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: so you take a flyer, it doesn't work out, and 435 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: you move on. But it's Jimmy. It's an indicator that 436 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts has a long way to go. I just 437 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,479 Speaker 1: don't think Jalen Hurts. I love the guy. I love him. 438 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 1: Alabama will always remember what he did when he came 439 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 1: off the bench and uh and the way he conducted himself. 440 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: He lost a job and went to Oklahoma what its 441 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 1: terrific human being. I don't think he's a major league quarterback. 442 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 1: And I think Philadelphia knows that Fox Sports Radio has 443 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all 444 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and 445 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: within the I Heart Radio app. Search f s R 446 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: to listen live. Favorite underdog on the board, Bernie in 447 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: week one, Uh, believe it or not, I'll tell you what. 448 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 1: Believe it or not, it's going to be the New 449 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. Oh wow, No, I didn't see that coming. 450 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: To say more, well, I'm not. I can't see him. 451 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: A big fan of Jameis Winston. Okay, he's forty two 452 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: as a starter. Obviously, he's a he's a guy where 453 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 1: you know who who likes to call off the ball up. 454 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,199 Speaker 1: He had thirty you know interceptions two years ago and 455 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: they were horrible. Six were in the first quarters, six 456 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: were in the first possession, six were picked six and 457 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: six when they were leading in the fourth quarter. But 458 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: I've always liked Sean Payton in that defense as an underdog. 459 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: And I think you're Green Bays just just a tat 460 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 1: over priced in this game going down there when the 461 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 1: games mean play in Jacksonville, Right, it's gonna be played 462 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 1: outside in Jacksonville's not not even home game. But I 463 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: think I think it's one of those games where New 464 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: Orleans who's always played their divisional rivals that are leading 465 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: divisional rivals very tough. I have a lot of faith 466 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: in Sean Payton, so that'll be my number one dog. 467 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 1: Is this like a big picture thing on the Staints 468 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 1: that you think there will be value on them going 469 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 1: forward this year? Is this just a strictly looking at 470 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: Week one. I haven't looked at their schedule, but I'm 471 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: not in on this team at all this year. In fact, 472 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 1: I have to wait and see. But for some other reason, 473 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: they're eight and one against the number of the last 474 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,959 Speaker 1: three years when Drew Brees didn't start. Yeah, so they 475 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 1: you know they've got to I love Alvin Camara, I 476 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: love Michael Thomas. I think their defense is is is 477 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 1: better he is. I would say their defense is going 478 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: to be better, and then people realize, Um, you know, 479 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see some packages for Taysom Hill. 480 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 1: Just one of those situations where it's hard enough to 481 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: win on the NFL, hard enough to win on the 482 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: road with the late points. Although I will say one thing, 483 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 1: I have my eye on the Denver Broncos. I love them. 484 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 1: I can't tell you how much I like Teddy Bridgewater, 485 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: Jason because in Minnesota he was a missfield goal away 486 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: from beating Seattle in the playoffs. Wasn't his fault. He 487 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: led the team to eleven and five season that year. 488 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 1: In New Orleans and twenty nineteen, Drew Brees goes down. 489 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: He holds a team meeting before the game in seattleis is, 490 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: guys are not Drew Brees. But if you get on 491 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: my back and follow me, I won't let you down. 492 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,440 Speaker 1: They proceed to go five and all with Teddy Bridgewater. 493 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 1: New Orleans finishes up thirteen and three. When you look 494 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: at Teddy bridge Road his career, he's thirty five and 495 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,640 Speaker 1: fourteen against the spread. He's twenty one in three against 496 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 1: the number on the road. That's a number. Teddy Bridgewater 497 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: is twenty one and three against the number on the road. 498 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,360 Speaker 1: They're laying less than the field goal. And that's with 499 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: hold On. That's with the Vikings and Saints. So two 500 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: pretty good teams and a lot of those games they 501 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 1: were underdogs. But I you know, I have no faith 502 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 1: that Daniel Jones can get to a game without turning 503 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: it released twice and I gotta take big Fangio. There's 504 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: a reason went with Teddy Bridgewaters. I'm the hot seat 505 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: went with the veteran who knows how to win. Denver's 506 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 1: defense is very underrated and their offense is stilled in 507 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: very nicely. Jason. The Giants are still trying to find 508 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 1: out who they held the out or Joe Judge. I 509 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: think they're still a glorified w w E team after 510 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: they fighting. I really don't have any idea how the 511 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: good the Giants are, but I'm gonna say I think 512 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 1: Denver's a playoff team, Jason, I really do. Wow. Yeah, 513 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 1: I'm I'm kind of with you there. Now. I didn't 514 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,439 Speaker 1: I didn't realize there's Bridgewater numbers. I gotta look at 515 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 1: that closer. Uh, so Bernie, I will wrap up. I 516 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 1: just realized eight road favorites in week one. Um, that 517 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 1: seems like a large number to me? Is that Does 518 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: that mean the haves and the have nots? The gap 519 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,400 Speaker 1: is widening? Or I thought there was like a large 520 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: middle class in the NFL this year. Yeah, I think 521 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 1: the gap is widening pretty pretty significant when you look 522 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 1: at the top teams like Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, 523 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty Niners. Uh, and then you know 524 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: the bottom teams, you know, the Lions and and the 525 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: Falcons and and right on down the line. I think 526 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: the gap is widening. The big, big takeaway story for 527 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,880 Speaker 1: me this year, Jason, are all the rookie quarterbacks now, 528 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 1: eventually they're gonna see the field. We don't know when, uh, 529 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: Justin Fields will see the field. You might have to 530 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 1: see as soon as week too. Obviously you've got you know, uh, 531 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, and you've got Zack Jones in with the Jets. 532 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,159 Speaker 1: And I think these guys are gonna get on the 533 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 1: field with the real bullets flying in real NFL defenses. 534 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: We're gonna find out about their competitive stamina and if 535 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 1: they can be a force multi flier for their teams. 536 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: In the last fifty years, quarterbacks have been drafted either 537 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 1: number one, number two, or number three overall. But believe 538 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,360 Speaker 1: it or not, in those fifty years, only two led 539 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 1: the team that drafted him to a Super Bowl. That 540 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,199 Speaker 1: was true, Aigman and Peyton Manning and Bateman was one 541 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,640 Speaker 1: in the fifteen his first year. So you've really got 542 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,239 Speaker 1: to be patient with these guys. And yeah, you know, 543 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: I think they're a fade early on because you're gonna 544 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 1: see things they just haven't seen. Yeah. And and the 545 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,919 Speaker 1: tough thing about that status, usually the first guy to 546 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 1: be picked at quarterback in the draft never turns out 547 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,160 Speaker 1: to be the best, Right. It's usually like Patrick Mahomes 548 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: goes ten to Tom Brady sixth round, Russell Wilson the 549 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 1: third round. I mean you could argue, dak Um, where 550 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: did that go? Third or fourth round? Round? Yeah, But 551 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 1: I mean there's just so many guys who did not 552 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: go number one overall, who for whatever reason, chip on 553 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 1: the shoulder Aaron Rodgers blah blah blah like that. That 554 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: is a weird oddity. Huh. It is. And because you 555 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 1: can never simular eight what will happen when they get 556 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 1: to the league and how they're gonna deal with failure 557 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 1: and how they're gonna be able to process all the 558 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: new things that they're seeing that they've never seen before. 559 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,360 Speaker 1: And they're gonna get hit more than Rocky bull Ball. 560 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: They're gonna be facing teams that want to knock their 561 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: block off. Look, I'm glad you mentioned Tom Brady though, 562 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: because I do believe Tampa Bay is gonna repeat when 563 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. They've got all twenty starters back, They're 564 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: loaded this Brady guy continues to just Brady Guy covered 565 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: him in Michigan for crant Lot. You know what, you 566 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: know what's interesting about Tom Brady, Jason, here's something you'll 567 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,919 Speaker 1: get a kicked out of. Last year alone, Tom Brady, 568 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: he threw four more yards and Aaron Rodgers he did 569 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: more touchdown passes in Patrick Maholmes. And then he beats 570 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 1: the Chiefs by twenty two in the Super Bowl. And 571 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: he's forty four, and he's better than ever, and he's 572 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: got his receivers and he's got his route trees, and 573 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: he's healthy and his knees fixed and he looks fantastic. 574 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 1: And in his career, over three starts, Brady has only 575 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: lost two in a row once one really, So I'm 576 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 1: looking at Tampa Bay is a fourteen and three type 577 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: team that's loaded, angry, ready to do it again, and 578 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: there's a quarterback I think. I don't think I'll fade 579 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: him all year. I can't lie. I did grab Tampa 580 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: Bay minus seven week one. That feels like it's twenty 581 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 1: eight to thirteen all over, you know. Yeah, as I read, 582 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 1: as we do this, I look at the line, it 583 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: looks like it's eight now, um, wow, so you've got 584 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: a good number. And again, listen, everybody, you got to 585 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 1: get the best numbers. So if you missed seven, you 586 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: know that doesn't mean you have to grab eight, right, Bernie, 587 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 1: like you could again, we can do the teaser like 588 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 1: you're getting the bad number. And Dak Prescott somebody be 589 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 1: a backdoor cover guy right with that offense. Always always 590 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: want to get the best of the number. Look what 591 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: happened in college football just last week. Some people got 592 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: Ohio State at thirteen and a half, some got him 593 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 1: at fourteen, fourth and a half and lands on fourteen. Right, 594 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: Look what happened with Boise State. And see if you 595 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,880 Speaker 1: some people got Ceef you at four and a half, five, 596 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 1: others got five and a half, six, six and a 597 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 1: half in it landed on five one other tons of 598 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: the radar team. And I know this doesn't make any 599 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: sense because on a roster you could take your uniform 600 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: name off. You look at this rosteron Oh my goodness, 601 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 1: they're on the short list to go to the Super Bowl. 602 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: I've really got my eye on the Cleveland Browns. I 603 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 1: had to hold anze that and I'll tell you something else, Jason, 604 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 1: watch him early because nine of their first eleven opponents 605 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: finished under five. So I look for Cleveland to wake 606 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 1: up and Thanksgiving and be a you know, a nine 607 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,239 Speaker 1: and one, eight and two tech team. I love it. 608 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: Bernie Frouder, Bernie you want to plug anything, just you know, 609 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 1: whole folks can enjoy my show Saturday nights. It's now 610 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 1: eleven pm to three am. It's four hours now four 611 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 1: hours more some straight out of Vegas to Fox Sports 612 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 1: Radio from midnight to three and it will be obviously 613 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 1: heavy football center, you know, with the league starting. And 614 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 1: I always appreciate you having me on, Jason. I really 615 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 1: enjoy uh you know, your your work and especially the 616 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 1: the tomorrow's headlines today. I love that segment. If I 617 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 1: miss it, I recorded and I never missed trying to 618 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 1: have fun with it. Bernie, thanks so much, and everybody, Hey, 619 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 1: Bernie Froddy, he's got the goods man. Good luck this season. Bernie. 620 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: We'll talk to you soon. You two. Thank you. Jason,