1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know 3 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier, 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and 9 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for? 12 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody, 13 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. 14 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal. Indeed, we do lots of 15 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: big stories that we want to talk to you about 16 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: this morning. First of all, the New York Times actually 17 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: forced to admit that our sanctions on Russia have completely backfired. 18 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: Their word is boomerang, so they have some new numbers 19 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: there that are pretty interesting. We'll also had some primaries 20 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: this week down in Georgia and Alabama. A little bit 21 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: of tea leaves reading some contradictory indicators about the state 22 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 1: of the Republican Party and Trump and all of that stuff. 23 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: And also this is pretty stunning, Ron DeSantis actually ahead 24 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 1: of Trump in a new New Hampshire theoretical primary poll, 25 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: so we will break that down for you. Also some 26 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 1: other interesting moves on DeSantis's part. I just I can't believe. 27 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: We continue to learn more and more horrifying details about 28 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 1: just what occurred in the Valdi massacre. The very latest 29 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: news is that that chief of the school police unit 30 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: has actually been asked to step aside for now. Finally, 31 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: I don't know what took so long, so we've got 32 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: the details. There are also an interesting moment from Elizabeth 33 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 1: Warren of all people, kind of calling out the FED 34 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: and really in a very succinct way demonstrating how limited 35 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: what the FED is going to be able to do 36 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: in order to get inflation under control and get our 37 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: economy back to where we would all ultimately like it 38 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: to be. And then we've cut some interesting thoughts from 39 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 1: MSNBC on gas prices. Yes, but we wanted to start 40 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: sager to control. We finally have. It's finally happening, the date, 41 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,679 Speaker 1: the announcement, the link. It's all over, people, after I've 42 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: gone to war for all of you. We're coming to 43 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: Atlanta Center Stage Theater, Atlanta, September sixteenth, seven thirty eight. AM. Okay, 44 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: So here's how it's going to work. As we promised. 45 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: The pre sale is going live today. It will be 46 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: in your email, the ticket masterlink, and we're going to 47 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: give you a password. You have to be a Premium 48 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: member for the first week in order to be able 49 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: to buy tickets. If you're a lifetime member, here's how 50 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: it's going to work. Just to make sure that the 51 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: seating and all of that works out properly, go ahead 52 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: and buy tickets, send us an email. We'll refund the cost. 53 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: As we promise. Lifetime members get VIP access. I do 54 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: also want to say, because they this is what they've 55 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: warned me. If you are worried that this is gonna 56 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 1: be the only show, it is not the case. It 57 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: is first of many. We have to go through this 58 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: process and announce on this particular one before we can 59 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 1: go ahead and book other venues. So we certainly need 60 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: to demonstrate the desire for people to come and see 61 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 1: us before we can book other venues just to give 62 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: people peak behind the curtain venues and other people won't 63 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: do deals with you unless you can show that you 64 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: can sell tickets elsewhere. Hence we were able to get 65 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: a nice deal with this venue, Center Stage. Thank you 66 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: center Stage, Atlanta. So go ahead buy tickets. Show the 67 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: world that people can show up for Breaking Points live. 68 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: It's gonna be fun. We're gonna have Crystal me, We're 69 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: obviously going to have friends, special guest appearances at various 70 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: different locations. And for those of you who are in 71 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: other parts of the country, don't worry. We are coming. 72 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: We have the map, all of that and stuff laid out, 73 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: so don't worry as if this is the only one, 74 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: right that's not your only chance. I am excited about 75 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: going to Georgia though. Yes, that's one of the reason 76 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: why it's fun. There's big timed at specifically to be 77 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: you know, right in the heat of election scenes then 78 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: and just before some of the biggest races in the 79 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: country are unfolding in Georgia right now. So to get 80 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: to go to Atlanta City, I haven't been to for 81 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: a hot minute. I'm pretty excited about I have not 82 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: been to Atlanta. I mean really never been. I've never 83 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 1: spent time in Atlanta, like traveled. I've like obviously spent 84 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 1: time in the airport. But I started I started college 85 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: at Clemson University in South Carolina, and it's not that 86 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: far from Atlanta. In fact, a lot of times you 87 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: would fly in and out Atlanta airport would be like 88 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: the cheapest one to flying on. So I spent a 89 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: bit of time there when I was in college, and 90 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: I've been back since, but I haven't spent a lot 91 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: of time there since. So anyway, excited to go down 92 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: to Georgia. We're coming to Atlanta, We're coming to other 93 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: battleground states. We're coming to major metropolis's. Don't worry. We 94 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: are coming for those of you who are in the 95 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: area or you know whatever within a couple one hundred miles. 96 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: Go ahead and buy tickets show the world. Like we said, 97 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 1: premium subscribers are the people who get the first shot 98 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 1: at all ticket sales, not just this one. And for 99 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: the lifetime members, you guys have guaranteed seats, no matter where, 100 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: no matter what. As I said, by the ticket send 101 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: us an email, will refund you the entire cost. So 102 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: go ahead and turn up many. Yeah, it's gonna be exciting. 103 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: I've we've been working on this for over a year. 104 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: You know, we were worried with COVID, like a year ago. 105 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: Think about the last time we did, the very last 106 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: time I mean it was and I did, was that 107 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 1: book show. It was March of what March twenty twenty. 108 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: I want to say, in retrospect probably shoud have done. 109 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: It was like March nineteenth or something. It really was. 110 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: It was in Brooklyn. It really was like the last 111 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: moment before everything shut down for COVID, and there is 112 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: no doubt it was circulating the virus so much more 113 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,359 Speaker 1: widespread than certainly we realized, and that much of the 114 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: country realized at that point. But we got in right 115 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: under the wire, had an amazing time. You know, that show. 116 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: It actually even though we probably in retrospect it was 117 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: risky to do, we had so many people share with 118 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: us that that was like, you know, they really sort 119 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: of held onto that for a long time because it 120 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: was the last thing that they did and went out 121 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: in public and did before everything shut down. So anyway, 122 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: it's been a lot too long and we're excited to 123 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: get back out and get to you face to face 124 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: with people, because there really is nothing like that, just 125 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 1: like direct too much. Actually, Oh, I absolutely love that. 126 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,239 Speaker 1: I love meeting people and especially like getting everybody together 127 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: anytime that we were able to do that. It's been 128 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: two years, you know, the show has grown so much, 129 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: so I mean there's so many people who've never even 130 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: had that opportunity in the last two years in order 131 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: to even just meet us and have fun. And I've 132 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: been studying other people and how they do live shows 133 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: and live podcasts. So we've got some fun things planned. 134 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: I think we had some great innovations in our last one. 135 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 1: We're just going to keep building on that. And now 136 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 1: we have more production value, and thanks to our premium 137 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: members and all that, we can bring in some more 138 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: people and we can really invest in the show. It's 139 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: gonna be a fun experience. And then, just like the 140 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: New York Show, we're going to have the Premium subscribe. 141 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 1: They're going to be able to vote on all the 142 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: topics of the stuff that we cover, and a lot 143 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: of it will be made available on YouTube for everybody 144 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 1: at a later date. So don't worry, you're not necessarily 145 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: going to lose out. And like I said, get excited. 146 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: If you're in the area, go ahead and buy tickets. 147 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: We're really excited. Go ahead and tweet it out, post 148 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: it on Instagram or whatever. We'll retweet it. We'll put 149 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 1: it on Instagram. And let's sell this thing out so 150 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,040 Speaker 1: we can prove to the world that we can also 151 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 1: buy take or we can sell some tickets here at 152 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: break up poys. Indeed, all right, let's get to this. 153 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: All right, with all of that out of the way, 154 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: let's get to the show. Go ahead and put this 155 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: first hairshet up on the screen from the New York Times. 156 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: Lo and behold, New York Times even forced to admit, 157 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: here's the headline here, Western move to choke Russia's oil exports. Boomerangs, 158 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: they add in the ca caveat for now, the subhad 159 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: here says, with China and India buying the Russian oil 160 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: shunned by the West in an effort to force an 161 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: end to the Ukraine invasion, Moscow is earning more now 162 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: than it did before the war. Okay, let that sink in. 163 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: You are paying more at the pump in theory in 164 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: part to punish Putin. In reality, we are punishing ourselves 165 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: and because the oil price has spiked to such astronomical levels. 166 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: He is literally his regime literally making more money from 167 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: oil and gas than ever before. The Chinese and the 168 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: Indians have stepped in. They are happy to buy oil 169 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 1: at a discount. This is something that we have been 170 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: covering here. There's another twist, though, that I learned in 171 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: this article, which is that, you know, you feel like, Okay, 172 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: we've shut Russian oil out of our system. We're not 173 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 1: buying any Russian oil. Of course, we're buying Saldi oil 174 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: and other sort of criminal regimes. But put that aside. 175 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: It turns out even that is not true, because in 176 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: particular they trace to the Indian market. There's a lot 177 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: of people who are happy to buy that discounted oil 178 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: in India and resell it to us. They're shipping it 179 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: at a premium and exploit the arbitrage. So we're not 180 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: even we're not even not buying Russian oil, We're just 181 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: buying it at a more expensive price. So congratulations to 182 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: everyone for thinking that this was, you know, a great idea. 183 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: And again what we've said from the beginning is a 184 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 1: lot of these effects were really predictable. They were really predictable. 185 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: I mean you don't have to look back at distant 186 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: history to see that. First of all, our sanctions regimes 187 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 1: have not been effective in terms of, you know, forcing 188 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,559 Speaker 1: countries to comply with our will, that's number one. Oftentimes 189 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 1: they end up punching the ordinary citizens of those countries 190 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: and not the regimes. They end up playing into the 191 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: hands of those autocratic leaders who can say, Hey, your 192 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: problems aren't with me, your problems are with the West 193 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,319 Speaker 1: who wants to destroy you. And that's exactly what has 194 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: happened here. So it really is, you know, so bad 195 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,319 Speaker 1: at this point that even the New York Times has 196 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: to admit it. Sager. Yeah, absolutely, And President Biden is 197 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: actually making a mistake. He is trying to tie the 198 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: high gas prices directly to the situation in Europe, and 199 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: he actually framed it that way. He's like, for all 200 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: the Republicans who are criticizing me, are you saying that 201 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: we were wrong to stand up to Ukraine or to 202 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: support Ukraine and stand up to Putin? He's directly tying 203 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: the two, which could spell big political disaster for him 204 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 1: in the future. Let's take a listen to a speech yesterday. 205 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: So for all those republics in Congress criticizing me day 206 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: for high gas prices in America. Are you now saying 207 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: we were wrong to support Ukraine? Are you saying we 208 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: were wrong to stand up to Putin? Are you saying 209 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: that we would rather have lower gas prices in America 210 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: and Putin's iron fist in Europe? I don't believe that. 211 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: And you know what, if it was actually working, there 212 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: would be a debate. We could have a debate. I 213 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: still would be opposed. We've talked about the but there 214 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: would be a debate if this was actually, you know, 215 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: degrading Russia's ability to prosecute this war. That is the opposite, 216 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: the literal opposite of what is happening. So it's just 217 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: dishonest at this point to tell the American people like, oh, 218 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,439 Speaker 1: you're paying high gas prices, but this is helping Ukraine. 219 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: This is not helping Ukraine. It's not helping us. We've 220 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: effectively imposed sanctions on our own citizens, and the Russians 221 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: are laughing. As we've talked about those comments from Putin previously, 222 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: I mean, just mocking the Biden administration and their policy. 223 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: The latest from New York Times, that article we had 224 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: at before Alexei Miller, who's the head of gas Prom, 225 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: the Russian energy giant, equipped at an economic conference, the 226 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: same one that Putin spoke at in Saint Petersburg last week, 227 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: that he bore no ill will against Europe because even 228 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: as the continent's imports of Russian natural gas fell by 229 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 1: quote several tens of percent, prices rose several fold. Here's 230 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: the money quote quote, I won't bend the truth. If 231 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: I tell you that we bear no grudge. It's like 232 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: yeah for good. And here's he did nothing. Putin actually 233 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: spoke last night at the Bricks conference. So for people 234 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 1: who don't remember, the Bricks was like a concept made 235 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: up in two thousand and eight, it's like Brazil and Russia, 236 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: India and China as well of others some developing countries. 237 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 1: And at that he actually vowed number one in order 238 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: to re route all Russian exports to bricks countries, including 239 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: China and India, the two largest markets, not only oil 240 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: but everything else. But number two, and this is even 241 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,359 Speaker 1: more important, is they are working on a unified currency 242 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: or type of system in order to be able to 243 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 1: trade oil off of the US dollars, so either price 244 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: it and yen to ruble in rupee to ruble and 245 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: find some medium exchange. So they're moving themselves off of that. 246 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: They're working to try and create an alternative oil market 247 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: which they will unambiguously pay much less in China India 248 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: and as you said, probably just rip us off in 249 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 1: the interim. I guess I can't blame them. I probably 250 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:21,479 Speaker 1: do the same time, I don't blame China and India, Yeah, 251 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: not at all. So you put that together, it's not working. 252 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: As we said, on the battlefield, Ukraine is continuing to suffer. 253 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: I mean, they are urging people in the east in 254 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: order to leave. There has been a tremendous amount of 255 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 1: civilian and military casualties. We don't know what the Russian 256 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 1: casualties are. We do know that many of these cities 257 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: remain besieged and that overall the military picture for Ukraine 258 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: is not good. So on the battlefield things are not 259 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: working out. I do again want to present the counter argument, 260 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 1: and this is what everybody says. Yeah, but in two 261 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: or three years, the Russian oil business is going to 262 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: really suffer because they won't be able to get the 263 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: parts that they need. And my response to that would 264 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 1: be okay. So Number one, are we supposed to pay 265 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: five dollars a gallon for two to three years in 266 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 1: order to secure the integrity of eastern Ukraine, because that 267 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,559 Speaker 1: seems kind of crazy. Number two is that in two 268 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 1: to three years the military situation will be completely different. 269 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: Russia has the benefit of notving sky high gas prices 270 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: right now and a rapidly evolving situation on the battlefield. 271 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: At this point, we have shipped everything to Ukraine that 272 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 1: we possibly could being able to get into an actual war. 273 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: If they can't get it done with what we've sent, 274 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: it's not going to happen. Let's just be honest here, 275 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: and so we then need to move things towards a 276 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 1: diplomatic situation. And my problem, and we're about to talk 277 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 1: about this with Germany, is that there is no appetite 278 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: in the West for considering the grand strategic picture. We 279 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: need to align the incentives for President Zelenski to know 280 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 1: that he will be remain secure in power, that he 281 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: will remain and continue to have Western aid, and that 282 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: all of that will be there if he continues with negotiations. 283 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: Frankly even more and instead, the opposite incentive is that 284 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: the more bravado and stuff that they present, the higher 285 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: the amount of dollars that get sent over to the 286 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: Ukrainian regime. So we really do need to consider like 287 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: grand strategic is what we're trying to do here, I mean, 288 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: just to put it really simply indirectly, we have higher 289 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: gas prices. Yeah, we have a worldwide hunger crisis caused 290 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: in part by this war, in part because Russia's unconschable actions, 291 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: in part because of our own response. There are a 292 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: lot of developing world nations that are unable to purchase 293 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: the grain and fertilizer from Russia that they normally depend 294 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: on and a especially depending on now because of our 295 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: bank sanctions on Russia makes it effectively impossible. So we've 296 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: got gas crisis, food crisis, Ukraine is losing, and Russia 297 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: richer than ever. Tell me what part of this policy's working. 298 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: Tell me what part of the policy's working, I mean, 299 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: And then to your point, you're not allowed to say that, 300 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: or people freak out if you say, Hey, we need 301 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: to figure out how do we get to go how 302 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: do we wrap up this war in the interest of everyone, 303 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: especially the Ukrainians. Do you think they want to be 304 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: a war for three years? They think you think they 305 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: have time to wait around for the sanctions to start 306 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: to bite three to five years from now. I don't 307 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: think so. So when you say anything that contradicts the 308 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: you know, mainstream bipartisan consensus of we just need to 309 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: keep sending in the military and we keep need to 310 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 1: keep trying these economic this economic warfare, which is completely boomerang. 311 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: Even the New York Times is admitting it, you get 312 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: massive backlash. And that just happened in Germany and pretty 313 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: interesting instance. Let's go ahead and put this tear sheet 314 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: up on the screen. So this says Schultz advisor turns 315 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: heads with appeal to consider the future Russian relationship. That's 316 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: really all that he said is, hey, maybe we should 317 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: think about whether we want to make Russia a pariah state. 318 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: This is my interpretation of his words. I'll tell you 319 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: his exact words in a minute. And massive backlash. So 320 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: here's this article, they say. German Chancellor Olaf Schultz's top 321 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: foreign policy aid raised eyebrows Monday night when he suggested 322 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 1: Europe should focus more on preserving long term relations with 323 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: Russia and less on the specifics of German tank shipments 324 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: to Ukraine. In a rare public appearance. Yan's PLOTNRD. Do 325 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: you think that's how you say it a lot? Yeah, 326 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: probably yenz Jan's I don't know. A long standing architect 327 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: of Berlin's Russia policy, argued that the debates over Germany's 328 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: military support for Ukraine, which is frequently criticized for being 329 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: too hesitant and slow, we're quote driven by a feverishnist 330 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 1: that misses the bigger questions. In many cases no lives detected. Specifically, 331 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: he pointed to a long running saga over whether Germany 332 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: should supply the Ukrainian military was so called martyr infantry 333 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: fighting vehicles, which Schultz has so far refused to do. 334 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: Here's the quote. You can fill a lot of newspaper 335 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: pages with twenty martyrs, but larger articles about what will 336 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: actually be our relationship with Russia in the future are 337 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: somehow less frequent. And that's a question that's at least 338 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: as exciting and relevant, which could be discussed and where 339 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: there could also be a public discourse. He also called 340 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 1: for a software approach towards China and argued Ukraine should 341 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: not be granted any rebates on its bid to become 342 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: an EU member just because it was under a Russian attack. 343 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: He said, just because you're under attack, you don't automatically 344 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 1: improve on the rule of law. Okay, So he didn't 345 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: even say, don't send you know this martyrs, whatever these 346 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 1: things are. He didn't even say, hey, we need to 347 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: focus on like we need to have tay Tom with thread, 348 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: we need to have a warm relationship. He just said, 349 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: maybe we should be discussing this, maybe we should be 350 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 1: exploring this in some newspaper articles. Massive backlash had to 351 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: walk back the comments. There's a whole freak down over 352 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 1: it with him, and Washington was very upset with him. 353 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 1: Here is the basic truth. They have a lot more 354 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 1: to lose than us, so maybe we should follow their lead. No, 355 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,719 Speaker 1: they have what they're like a couple hundred I think 356 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 1: like a thousand miles whatever away from Russia. They fought 357 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: several wars with Russia. I'm going to presume that they 358 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: know whats better for their security than we do. Maybe 359 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: that's a crazy thing. You know, there's a talk of 360 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: allies and ally ship here in the United States. Aren't 361 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: you supposed to listen to them and be like, what 362 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: do you guys want? Tell us what it is? Why 363 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: are we imposing our will on a situation that has 364 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: negative impact on us quite literally whenever it comes to that. Also, 365 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: the energy situation in Germany is a catastrophe if you 366 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 1: care about the climate. Austria, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands 367 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,439 Speaker 1: are resurrecting coal fired power plants as of right now 368 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 1: in order to move towards bringing more energy domestically. So 369 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: as a result, it as possible do unique deep nuclearization 370 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 1: and reduced natural gas imports from Russia, Russia, Germany and 371 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: Austria and the Netherlands. Germany being one of the largest, 372 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: i think the largest economy in continental Europe, is now 373 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: going to have to produce significantly more coal fired energy 374 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: in order to meet their goals, which is terrible for 375 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 1: the climate. So people don't know this coal is very expensive. 376 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: It's actually not cheap anymore compared to many of the 377 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:09,239 Speaker 1: other instances or many of the other alternatives. So consider this. 378 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 1: People are paying sky high gas prices and the energy 379 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: that they're going to use in order to heat their 380 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: homes in the middle of the summer and then come winter, 381 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: because we all know that that's going to happen in 382 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 1: order to sorry, yeah, in order to heat their homes 383 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: in the winter and cool their homes right now is 384 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 1: going to be filthy coal power energy, So consider the 385 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: broader impact of that, like that is a catastrophe. And listen, 386 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,400 Speaker 1: the Germans have made a grand strategic decision that they 387 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:38,199 Speaker 1: want to continue a some sort of commerce relationship with 388 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: the Russians. I think that that is broadly the Germans business. 389 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: To the extent that I make fun of them, it's 390 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: for taking offline their nuclear power plants and for saying 391 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: that they don't want to do so. So maybe they'll 392 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,239 Speaker 1: consider some of that. I guess though the Greens. You know, 393 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: if the German Greens don't denounce this more than they 394 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 1: denounce nuclear, they are truly full of shit. But whenever 395 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 1: you consider the broader implication, we have to have energy 396 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: here in America that we're going to talk a lot 397 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,360 Speaker 1: about that today with the gas tax and oil they 398 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 1: need it in Western Europe as well. These are still 399 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: developing countries or so, these are developed economies, like they 400 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: have a certain standard of living in order to meet 401 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: the most basic basis. Yeah, and on top of that, 402 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 1: you consider, you know, peace between the great powers on 403 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: the continent. Yeah, all of that seems very important. I'm 404 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 1: not saying the situation in Ukraine isn't important. We have 405 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: to take stock of what it all is, what's happening, 406 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: consider the Ukrainian's interests and ours, and we should never 407 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: subjugate our own interests over under. What is for Ukraine, Well, 408 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: it's not clear to me that the policy we're pursuing 409 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: is good for it. Yeah, I don't think it's good 410 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: for anybody. But even if it was, most Chinese they're 411 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 1: getting a good deal on gas. It's been good for 412 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: the Indians who are getting a good deal on gas 413 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 1: and are able to sell it back and a premium 414 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: to us. So I can't say it's not been good 415 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: for everybody. Although you know, India also one of the 416 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 1: countries that will be impacted by the rising price of food, 417 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,479 Speaker 1: so I mean that's not costless either. But you know, 418 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: I do want to say one thing about the gas 419 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 1: tax holiday that now has been proposed is being pushed 420 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: by the Biden administration before we move on here and 421 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: Soccer's gonna be talking about, We're also going to be 422 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: talking to Skanda, who's done a lot of thinking about 423 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 1: how we could get gas prices under control in a 424 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:22,479 Speaker 1: very sort of like thoughtful and nuanced way, but Biden 425 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 1: has decided to lean into this gas tax holiday idea, 426 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 1: which number one is not likely to have much of 427 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: an impact on what you pay at the pump at all, 428 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: so it's like impotent. Number two is basically a subsidy 429 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 1: to the very oil companies that have, like you know, 430 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: had these massive record breaking profits. But the only thing 431 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: they want to do to it is like make rich 432 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: people even richer. So number two is a subsidy to them. 433 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 1: And number three he has to get this through Congress. 434 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: Congress already said this isn't even it's not going to habit. 435 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,159 Speaker 1: So what are you doing. I mean, you're proposing this 436 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,479 Speaker 1: policy that's like an impotent subsidy to the oil and 437 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,440 Speaker 1: gas companies that's not even going to pass. What we're 438 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 1: talking about here with Ukraine. While of course Putin's price 439 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: hike isn't everything that's going on with inflation or with 440 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: the gas markets, it is true that our ban on 441 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 1: Russian oil is certainly having an impact on the cost 442 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: of gasoline. This is something that is completely in your power. 443 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: And you know, he likes to pretend like we got 444 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 1: we can't do anything about it, or that if you're 445 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: arguing against it, you hate Ukraine when the reality is 446 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: it just had the polar opposite effect of what was intended. 447 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: And I just wish they would be honest about that. Hey, 448 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 1: we tried it, it it didn't work. Let's try something else. 449 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 1: How about that wet we agree? I mean, at the 450 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,719 Speaker 1: very least give some people some hope somewhere. But if 451 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: you say that this is all tied up with Ukraine, 452 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: like you're not going to like what the answer to 453 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 1: that question is a year from now, whenever you're like, hey, 454 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: how much longer do you want to pay five dollars 455 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: a gallon at the pump in order to make sure 456 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: that the border of the dune boss is slightly different 457 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 1: than it is than one year ago. I mean, yeah, 458 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: these are not questions. You know, we didn't live in 459 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: democratic societies in World War One, absent the United States, 460 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: and a lot of those countries found out the hard 461 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: way in terms of their domestic politics that a lot 462 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: of people were like, yeah, why are we spending millions 463 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: of people to die in order to make sure that, 464 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: like the French border moves a thousand feet. You know, 465 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: these are all questions which have to get democratically resolved, 466 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: and if you are a supporter of the Ukrainians, the 467 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: last thing that you probably want is for the US 468 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: domestic populace to turn against it and just say, you 469 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: know what, piece at all costs, we don't care anymore. 470 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: If this is going to be the only if this 471 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: is going to be the impact that we have over here, 472 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: and I very much see that that could be the case, 473 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 1: both on history and look, it doesn't take a genius 474 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: politically in order to figure that out. All right, let's 475 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 1: talk about the primaries that happened on Tuesday. Let's go 476 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen. So we'd 477 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: been taking some note of what was going on in Alabama. 478 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: At the last minute, it seemed that Moe Brooks, the 479 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: congressman there, might have been able to pull off some 480 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 1: sort of upset win. You'll remember he was endorsed by Trump, 481 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: then unindorsed by Trump quo going woke, and by woke 482 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: he means we need to move on from the twenty 483 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 1: twenty presidential election and did not commit to investigating and 484 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 1: possibly trying to replace President Biden whenever he became a senator. 485 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,120 Speaker 1: Just to give you an idea of how batshit. Trump's 486 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 1: criteria for endorsing certain candidates are anyway, So he moved 487 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: on to Katie Britt. So she's a forty year old 488 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: to actually be one of the youngest members of the 489 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: United States Senate. She's a former staffer there. She was 490 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: definitely the pick of Mitch McConnell and of many of 491 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: the other establishment types here in Washington, and she overwhelmingly 492 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: won the runoff election. So that was a victory for Trump, 493 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: just to show that he could endorse somebody, unindorse somebody, 494 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,719 Speaker 1: and then endorse somebody else and that they would be 495 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: completely fine. However, in the neighboring state of Georgia, it 496 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: did not work out that way at all. Let's go 497 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: ahead and put this up there on the screen. So 498 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: two of the Georgia runoff races that went to the 499 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 1: ballot actually went against Trump, which is really interesting. So 500 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,959 Speaker 1: we have here in the Georgia sixth district Rich mcd 501 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 1: comick and in the Georgia tenth Mike Collins. Now, they 502 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,679 Speaker 1: were not endorsed by Trump, but I think that the 503 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,639 Speaker 1: reason that we put this tweet on there that people 504 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 1: need to understand is that, yeah, maybe Trump's endorsed candidates 505 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: and the Georgia GOP didn't win. However, the two guys 506 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: who did win, Rich McCormick and Mike Collins are still 507 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: pretty hardcore MAGA. So it's not like they're electing liberals 508 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 1: in the state of Georgia, but they are not taking 509 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,239 Speaker 1: their marching orders from Trump in the same way. And 510 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: I think that there again has to be a lot 511 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 1: of analysis as to why this is occurring in different states. 512 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 1: It's not like the Georgia Republicans are all that more 513 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 1: maga than the Alabama Republicans, or maybe they are there 514 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,919 Speaker 1: in Alabama. I think again that it comes down to 515 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:52,479 Speaker 1: the idea of being hostile to Trump. If you appear 516 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: hostile towards Trump, then that's something that you're gonna get 517 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 1: punished for. If you just criticize him, or you don't 518 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: engage with his criticism at all a la Brian Kemp 519 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 1: and Brad Raffensberger, Joe and others, then you will survive. 520 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: The Georgia Republicans will say, you know, I'm going to 521 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 1: think for myself and I'm going to stick with you. 522 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: So I think that given that these guys who beat 523 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,360 Speaker 1: the Trump runoff candidates weren't endorsed by Trump but were 524 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 1: still very maga in their affect and more Georgia Republicans 525 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 1: were like, you know, maybe Trump got it wrong in 526 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 1: this particular case, but if these guys were pro impeachment 527 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 1: or you know, like a Mitt Romney type, I don't 528 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 1: think that they would win. So it's a very very 529 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: trick advance in order to try and win the time. 530 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: At this point, I don't know that I can apply 531 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 1: one like rule. I don't know. I mean, we also 532 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 1: we looked at South Carolina. There was like one pro 533 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: impeachment person who won and one who lost the neighboring district. 534 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 1: It's like hard to really look at all of this 535 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 1: and apply one single rule. It really seems to be 536 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 1: very very dependent on local conditions, what these candidates said, 537 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,399 Speaker 1: how hard Trump went against them, Where is what is 538 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 1: the state? Georgia seems to be particularly independent minded about 539 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 1: who they decide to support. Could be this is total speculation. 540 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: Could just be because they were at the center of 541 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 1: so much of the stoff the steel stuff, and people 542 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: had to make up their minds for themselves how they 543 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 1: felt about this and how they felt about these candidates. 544 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 1: They knew the governor was, you know, very very conservative 545 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: in terms of what he had actually done in the states, 546 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,920 Speaker 1: So that gave them kind of an ability to separate 547 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:30,640 Speaker 1: out who the candidates are from whatever Trump is saying. Alabama. 548 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 1: The other thing to remember about the Alabama race and 549 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: Mo Brooks is even though Trump like put out the 550 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: statement saying, oh, we went woke and here's why I endorsement, 551 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 1: the truth of why he unindorsed him is because it 552 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 1: looked like he was losing. Yes, so, and the reason 553 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: why he endorsed Katie Britt is because it looked like 554 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 1: she was winning. So then you can't really read that 555 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,439 Speaker 1: much into it when he's just jumping on the train 556 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 1: that already is I don't know what a trade's coming 557 00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:03,199 Speaker 1: into the station first, we'll do that anyway. So I 558 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: just look at all of these and it's hard to 559 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 1: really it's hard to suss out certainly. One thing you 560 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 1: can say is that Trump's endorsements do not reflect any 561 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,160 Speaker 1: sort of consistent ideological agenda. There's no doubt about that. 562 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 1: It's a weird combination of you know, who said nice 563 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 1: things about him, who's on board with stop the steal? 564 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 1: Who does he just think is going to be a winner, 565 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: so that he can, you know, so he can jump 566 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: on board. The OZ one is also turning out to 567 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 1: be strange. In Pennsylvania. Obviously, Trump very instrumental in securing 568 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 1: the Republican nomination for Oz. I think at this point 569 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 1: is quite clear he would not have won that Republican 570 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 1: without Trump support. Because there's even more polling coming out 571 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania that continues to have Fetterman with the lead 572 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 1: outside of the margin of error, and even worse, OZ 573 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 1: is approval rating way upside down because he just hasn't 574 00:28:55,880 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 1: He's obviously extremely unpopular with Democrats, unpopular with independent but 575 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: also has it locked in the Republican base. So you 576 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: can see in that one, you know, Trump really his 577 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: force being the thing that pulls this nominee over the 578 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: finish line, but ultimately may not work out for them 579 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 1: in the general election. Yeah, let's move on to that, actually, 580 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 1: because I think there's a lot to say here in 581 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: the context of Ron DeSantis. Let's go and put this 582 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: poll up there on the screen, Shock Pole absolutely out 583 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 1: of the University of New Hampshire, and this is actually 584 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 1: a very good poll, even though it does have a 585 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 1: relatively small pool of the people that it is asking 586 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: from the sample size. Now here's what they say likely 587 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: New Hampshire GOP primary voters Ron DeSantis thirty nine percent, 588 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: Trump thirty seven percent, Pence nine percent, Hailey six, Pompeo 589 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 1: Nome cruise all at one. But consider it in terms 590 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: of last October Trump forty three percent, DeSantis eighteen percent, 591 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 1: Hailey six, Pence four Cruise to Nome one. And I 592 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 1: think what's even more fascinating is the MA show that 593 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 1: in that same poll Trump versus Biden is Biden fifty 594 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 1: Trump forty three, DeSantis is forty seven, Biden forty six. 595 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 1: Deysantis a far more firmidile candidate there, which I mean, 596 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: I personally do think Desantas would easily beat Biden in 597 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 1: a general election matchup. But what's even more fascinating to 598 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 1: me is about the GOP media assessment and how people 599 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 1: are looking at Canada. So Fox News viewers DeSantis forty six, 600 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: Trump thirty two, Conservative Radio DeSantis fifty Trump thirty four. Okay, 601 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 1: So there is a lot I think to say about 602 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: this number one. Maybe we're completely wrong. I don't know. 603 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 1: I personally thought anybody who runs against Trump is nuked 604 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: and that people. Even as everybody says, oh, I want 605 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: to move on, I just thought, look, a lot of 606 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 1: these goopeople, they love Trump. You know, they'll basically follow 607 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 1: the man till the ends of the earth. However, I 608 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 1: think that there is something to be said here for 609 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: a lot of people who love Trump but understand that 610 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 1: they themselves and the country were exhaust of him, and think, hey, 611 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 1: you know this DeSantis guy, he might be able to win. 612 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 1: So if the narrative, and I think this is all 613 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 1: narrative dependent, becomes crystal, just like with Biden, where the 614 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: media framed Biden as the only guy who could beat Trump. Yeah, 615 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 1: if DeSantis gets that impromature by the media and by others, 616 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 1: GOP voters might say, Okay, I'll back Rond DeSantis because 617 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: I think that he will be able to beat Biden. 618 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 1: In a general way. I think the electability argument, yes, 619 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: I think the election maybe maybe. And I think that 620 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 1: the other part of it is that it all comes 621 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 1: down to Trump and his performance. So if he's going 622 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 1: to be obsessed with stop the Steal, which we know 623 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 1: that he is, if he is going to be centering 624 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 1: his central case to the American people on his own 625 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: personal grievances versus the grievances that they have at home. 626 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: Then I think that is a realm where Ron DeSantis 627 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 1: could beat him. And the only way that there's the 628 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 1: only way I think it would work. I still think 629 00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:00,479 Speaker 1: it's unlikely is that Ron DeSantis would say, Donald, you 630 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: did a great job. Now I'm trying to take the mantle, 631 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: and we need to beat President Biden and end this 632 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,440 Speaker 1: disaster for the country. And he never engages him in 633 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 1: any real criticism. As I said, you can't appear hostile 634 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 1: towards Trump, and at the same time, Trump yes by 635 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 1: lobbying bombs at DeSantis is obsessed with stop the steal 636 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:20,720 Speaker 1: and all of that and showing us that you know, 637 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 1: he's just an utter narcissist and not actually fit to 638 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: be the commander in chief. In that realm, I think 639 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 1: it's possible, although still very fraud for DeSantis to be 640 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 1: able to win. However, I think that Biden is such 641 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 1: a disaster that Trump can combine his political appeal and 642 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: knowledge of targeting the gas price continually of making fun 643 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: of Biden for being old, which you know, he gave 644 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: a speech where he's like I make this promise to you, 645 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: I will never ever ride a bicycle. But I'm sorry, 646 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 1: Like that's funny, that's funny, Okay, he will don't keep 647 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 1: that problem right, So yeah, I don't think he physically 648 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,040 Speaker 1: is capable. I've never ridden a bicycle whatever. So if 649 00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 1: he continues, if he hammers Biden on gas, if he 650 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: you know, makes fun of his infirmity and spends the 651 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 1: majority of his time on issues that connect with the 652 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: broader electorate, the Republican base, in addition to his stop 653 00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 1: the steal nonsense, then it's possible. So it's all about balance. 654 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: I don't know how this is gonna work for Trump 655 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 1: is also just he's such a force head to head, 656 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 1: and he knows I mean, he just knows how to 657 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 1: humiliate people. Remember, I mean, remember how those Republican priories 658 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 1: played out, Just one person after another. He would humiliate 659 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,479 Speaker 1: and destroy and make them look like complete cost use, 660 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 1: you know, the sort of like visceral language. And so 661 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 1: I just it's hard for me to imagine how it 662 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 1: works out, being like, I have no real critique of 663 00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 1: this person. I just want to be president instead. I 664 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 1: don't see how that works out. Now, I did see 665 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 1: Nate Silver. For what it's worth, I want to give 666 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 1: the other side of this. His analysis was like, look, 667 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, you had this extremely divided field and 668 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 1: Trump was able to to win with relatively low vote threshold. 669 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 1: You would win with like thirty percent, right, So now 670 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 1: if you have one main alternative, that's a different dynamic 671 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,920 Speaker 1: than twenty sixteen. But of course twenty sixteen was before 672 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 1: he had been president and before he had really solidified 673 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 1: this extremely loyal following. So it's just hard for me. 674 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,239 Speaker 1: I am very surprised by this poll. And the other 675 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 1: thing that's interesting to me about the poll is it 676 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 1: wasn't that Trump fell off by a lot. He lost 677 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,799 Speaker 1: a few percentage points from where he had been in October. 678 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: It was that DeSantis had really searched, so people had 679 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,919 Speaker 1: gotten to note who he was. You know, I'm sure 680 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 1: like the liberal media talking about him freaking out, I'm 681 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: sure that helped his hand a lot. And conservative radio, 682 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,280 Speaker 1: Fox News sort of leaning into DeSantis. That's definitely bolstered 683 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,160 Speaker 1: his image among the Republican base. And then the other 684 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 1: question is how much is New Hampshire reflective of the 685 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,839 Speaker 1: broader country, because it is an unusual state, and so 686 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,120 Speaker 1: you could see them having sort of a different take 687 00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,239 Speaker 1: on the race or different inclinations in the race than 688 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: other states. And we see that in primaries all the time, 689 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 1: where the result in New Hampshire be different than what 690 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 1: comes down in other states. So I am still extremely 691 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 1: skeptical of how this would work out, because again, how 692 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 1: do you defeat a candidate that you are a failed 693 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 1: to criticize him? And Trump is not going to be 694 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 1: afraid to criticize him. You know, possibly can and Trump, 695 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 1: you know, he is a formidable candidate. He is very, 696 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 1: very talented in those head to head, live in the moment, 697 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 1: you know, response uh, debate situations, he is extraordinarily effective. 698 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,360 Speaker 1: So I continue to find it hard to believe. And 699 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: I just also don't think Republicans have been turned into 700 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,440 Speaker 1: the little like mini pundits that the Democratic base has 701 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,080 Speaker 1: Republicans with Trump, I mean, they want with the guy 702 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:57,239 Speaker 1: that they wanted, you know, prognosticators be damned. So I 703 00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 1: also haven't seen from them this same life like, let 704 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 1: me weigh what the moderate suburban woman is gonna want 705 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:07,359 Speaker 1: in a candidate that I've seen out of the Democratic base, 706 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:09,759 Speaker 1: and DeSantis is thinking strategically. So let's put this on 707 00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,440 Speaker 1: the screen. He has declined to ask Trump for his 708 00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 1: re election endorsement, which is about as big as an 709 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,600 Speaker 1: fu in the state of Florida, considering that Trump lives 710 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 1: in Florida. Also, this is this is where I just 711 00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,239 Speaker 1: don't so, I do think Desander is gonna win. That 712 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,839 Speaker 1: being said, apparently the polls are like roughly tight look 713 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,200 Speaker 1: in general for governor of their type for apparently, Oh, 714 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,320 Speaker 1: I'm surprised by that. Actually ish, you know, within a 715 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 1: couple of points. Yeah, Look, Republic, you know, Florida is 716 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,239 Speaker 1: still still a relatively split state. So I don't know 717 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 1: how it's gonna work out. I'm under the presumption I 718 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 1: think he's gonna win. He's been dramatically popular there from 719 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,839 Speaker 1: what I have seen in terms of his actual favorability 720 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 1: ratings and all of that. So if DeSantis does win 721 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 1: reelection without the endorsement of Trump or the reelection endorsement 722 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,320 Speaker 1: of Trump, and there's no way in hell Trump is 723 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,279 Speaker 1: going to endorse him, for is gonna endorse him without 724 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,919 Speaker 1: Desander's groveling on his knees and asking that is proof 725 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:56,840 Speaker 1: positive that you can win. He's from one of the 726 00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,759 Speaker 1: biggest swing states in the country. I do think on 727 00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,319 Speaker 1: this stage, though, where things could get formidable is and 728 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,240 Speaker 1: I read this with great interest. The New Yorkers Dexter Filkins, 729 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,080 Speaker 1: who I love was a great war reporter, just went 730 00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,879 Speaker 1: ahead and profiled Ron desandis there's some like liberal annoyances 731 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,720 Speaker 1: within there, but he was able to secure an interview 732 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,319 Speaker 1: with Trump to talk about DeSantis. And what's the only 733 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 1: thing that Trump said about DeSantis? He was nowhere. I 734 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 1: endorsed him, and that's the only reason that he won. 735 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,520 Speaker 1: So that is going to be a very potent thing 736 00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,480 Speaker 1: that Trump would have on the stage against Ron DeSantis 737 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: if Ron is trying to say that he is more 738 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 1: electable than Trump. Another thing that came out on the profile, 739 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 1: and this stuff does matter and will show up on 740 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,840 Speaker 1: the campaign trail. Apparently DeSantis does not like to do 741 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,719 Speaker 1: retail politics, Like he really doesn't love to get into 742 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,520 Speaker 1: a room in a diner and suffer through, you know, 743 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,360 Speaker 1: like shaking it and listen. I like, I could probably 744 00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:49,840 Speaker 1: you know, I get why somebody wouldn't want to do that, 745 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 1: but then you probably can't be president because being president 746 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: means being able to suffer through a lot of you 747 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,760 Speaker 1: know events and things like that. You know, even Trump 748 00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,279 Speaker 1: in the Iowa and the New Hampshire days, he was 749 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 1: in those diners, you know, doing the photo ops and more. 750 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 1: And DeSantis is not as magnetic of a media figure 751 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,400 Speaker 1: as Trump is, so he would actually look for DeSantis 752 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,120 Speaker 1: to win, he would need to win Iowa or New Hampshire. 753 00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 1: Both of those require a tremendous amount of bullshit, egg rolls, 754 00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,680 Speaker 1: caucus fair butter cows getting dinner, yeah, chicken naar, all 755 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,800 Speaker 1: this nonsense that we have baked in to our political system. 756 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 1: That's the only shot he has in order to win 757 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 1: those in order to then have the momentum coming in 758 00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,319 Speaker 1: to Super Tuesday. So if you consider that and that's 759 00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,280 Speaker 1: not his forte, that's another knock against him, I think too. Yeah, 760 00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,360 Speaker 1: And I think that's all what's going on. We haven't 761 00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 1: seen him. I mean, there's been a lot of national 762 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,239 Speaker 1: media interest in him, but there hasn't been a lot 763 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 1: of national media display of his sort of like political 764 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,720 Speaker 1: capabilities in that way. He's good with the press in Florida, 765 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,520 Speaker 1: but look, I mean, the people hear, their vultures, Like 766 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,080 Speaker 1: if you the no offense of the Florida press, but 767 00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,480 Speaker 1: you know, the Washington press are vicious. They are much 768 00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,839 Speaker 1: better at getting them to slip up. We've never seen 769 00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,279 Speaker 1: reallysantist like I do want to say, I think it 770 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,319 Speaker 1: is as smart of him to not ask Trump for 771 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,480 Speaker 1: the endorsement. And they quoted someone in the stories, like 772 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,359 Speaker 1: familiar with Trump's endorsement process that was like Trump would 773 00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,479 Speaker 1: endorsement if he asked, but you know that endorsement would 774 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:16,560 Speaker 1: come with some sort of like ritual humiliation to take DeSantis. 775 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,920 Speaker 1: He might endorse him, but only that he like forces 776 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,479 Speaker 1: him to publicly grovel or takes him down a peg 777 00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,760 Speaker 1: in some sort of way. So DeSantis not opening himself 778 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,319 Speaker 1: up to that possibility. I would love a world where 779 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,759 Speaker 1: Goop voters would choose Ron DeSantis over Donald Trump. I 780 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,160 Speaker 1: just don't think I would think it would better for 781 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,360 Speaker 1: the country. I think it would be better for a lot, 782 00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:39,240 Speaker 1: but I don't I'm still skeptical that it could happen, 783 00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,200 Speaker 1: although I'm less skeptical than I was the last time 784 00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 1: that we covered it. So That's where I'm at. You'll 785 00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:47,799 Speaker 1: keep an eye on it. At the same time, we're 786 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,880 Speaker 1: getting some more official details that are supposedly accurate about 787 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:57,760 Speaker 1: what happened with the Yvaldi massacre. In particular, the Texas 788 00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:04,160 Speaker 1: Police commander says that after analyzing the response, analyzing body 789 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,120 Speaker 1: camera footage, which by the way, they are blocking the 790 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,560 Speaker 1: public from getting access to any of these details. So 791 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,799 Speaker 1: we're just having to take these people's word for it, 792 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,880 Speaker 1: so grains of salt on all of this. But according 793 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:18,840 Speaker 1: to their timeline, they're saying that these officers could have 794 00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:26,360 Speaker 1: neutralized and taken out this mass murder in three minutes. 795 00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,799 Speaker 1: Three minutes, let's take a listen to a little bit 796 00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 1: of that. Three minutes after the subject under the West Building, 797 00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,640 Speaker 1: there were a sufficient number of armed officers wearing body 798 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:42,759 Speaker 1: armor to isolate, distract, and neutralize the subject. The only 799 00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,960 Speaker 1: thing stopping the hallway of dedicated officers from any room 800 00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,960 Speaker 1: one to eleven and one twelve was the unseen commander. 801 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,279 Speaker 1: We've decided to place the lives of officers before the 802 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 1: lives of children. That's what it comes down to. That 803 00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,240 Speaker 1: is what it comes down to. You see those photos Chrystol. 804 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 1: Those guys they had semi automatic rifles, they had body armor, 805 00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,960 Speaker 1: they had ballistic list of shields, they had, I mean, 806 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,000 Speaker 1: the the pop open the door and it also, by 807 00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:10,440 Speaker 1: the way, it turns out the door was unlocked, so 808 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:12,319 Speaker 1: they didn't even need that, but if they did, they 809 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,400 Speaker 1: had it right. I mean, all of that, And just 810 00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,520 Speaker 1: to give you guys an idea of how insane things were, 811 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:22,680 Speaker 1: let's throw this on the screen. Ava Mireles called her husband. 812 00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,879 Speaker 1: She was one of the teachers who was killed, who 813 00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,880 Speaker 1: her husband was a police officer, said she was shot 814 00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,439 Speaker 1: and she was dying, and when he tried to save her, 815 00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,560 Speaker 1: he was detained, had his gun taken away, and he 816 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,760 Speaker 1: was escorted from the school. Now, at the very least, 817 00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,120 Speaker 1: we have some good news right now, which is that 818 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 1: Pete Aradondo, the guy who was the head of the 819 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,880 Speaker 1: police Department of UVALDECISD and made the call to not 820 00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,319 Speaker 1: go in and to take down the shooter, has been 821 00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:59,000 Speaker 1: relieved placed on a leave of absence as of yesterday. However, 822 00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:03,600 Speaker 1: he remains crystal on the city council. And listen, I mean, 823 00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,480 Speaker 1: I don't really know how the law works. I think 824 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,719 Speaker 1: it's a good reminder right now. By the way, the 825 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,360 Speaker 1: Supreme Court says a cop has no obligation to protect you, 826 00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 1: so you should actually keep that in mind. Given everything, 827 00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:21,040 Speaker 1: I do not see how at least in moral justice 828 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,960 Speaker 1: that at the man who made that call, Pete Ardando 829 00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,880 Speaker 1: should not be prosecuted in some form, and if that 830 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:33,520 Speaker 1: is not allowable under law, somehow needs to be civilly 831 00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:37,640 Speaker 1: held accountable for what has happened here. Because you could 832 00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,959 Speaker 1: see those officers outside. You could also see the Border 833 00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,160 Speaker 1: patrol guys by the way. Everybody's lined up. They're all 834 00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:45,120 Speaker 1: gi joed out. You know, I'm not no disrespect since 835 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,040 Speaker 1: the geoid, since those guys are actually the ones who 836 00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,360 Speaker 1: went in and killed the gunman. But I'm saying the 837 00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,960 Speaker 1: guys who were there on the scene, you could see 838 00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,480 Speaker 1: the picture, you could see the time stamp up in 839 00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,239 Speaker 1: the corner, had everything they need. I've had a lot 840 00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,200 Speaker 1: of cops message me saying I would have gone in 841 00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,200 Speaker 1: with my service revolve, well, my service pistol, Yeah, nobody, 842 00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,399 Speaker 1: arm or nothing. I would have gone in. That's my job. 843 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:09,319 Speaker 1: That's what I signed up for. And yeah, I don't know. 844 00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:11,600 Speaker 1: I mean, you see the photo and you see these 845 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,880 Speaker 1: stories about Eva Morells his husband imagined. I mean, imagine 846 00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:17,680 Speaker 1: what is that guy going through. And he was not 847 00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,919 Speaker 1: just a police officer. He was a police officer for 848 00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,360 Speaker 1: that school district, right, and they stopped him and took 849 00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,239 Speaker 1: his weapon and forced him out of the school. He 850 00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,680 Speaker 1: was the actual the one good guy with the gun 851 00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,200 Speaker 1: that wanted to do something and they did. I can't 852 00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:36,160 Speaker 1: imagine how he goes forward. I mean, it's just so 853 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,680 Speaker 1: horrifying to imagine. And some of the details. They released 854 00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:44,160 Speaker 1: an official timeline that had some of the dialogue between 855 00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,640 Speaker 1: these officers and it is as bad as you imagine 856 00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,799 Speaker 1: with regards to Pete Aradondo. I mean, he really was, 857 00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,080 Speaker 1: at least according to what they're telling us. And there 858 00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,680 Speaker 1: is a massive statewide cover up trying to block journalists 859 00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,399 Speaker 1: in the public from having access to these records on 860 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,040 Speaker 1: their own. But according to what they're telling us here, 861 00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,880 Speaker 1: you've got, you know, first of all, the three minutes, 862 00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,120 Speaker 1: within three minutes, they could have taken this guy out. 863 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,919 Speaker 1: That's number one. Number two they have at eleven fifty six. 864 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 1: An officer asks. He says, y'all don't know if there's 865 00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,160 Speaker 1: kids in there. If there's kids in there, we need 866 00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:22,880 Speaker 1: to go in there, this DPS agent says. The officer replies, 867 00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,319 Speaker 1: whoever's in charge will determine that. So it's this like 868 00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:31,279 Speaker 1: bureaucratic blame shift. It's not my responsibility, it's not my call. 869 00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:35,040 Speaker 1: I'm just going to defer to ultimately, I guess Pete Radondo. 870 00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:39,200 Speaker 1: Then at twelve twenty three, Aradondo says, we've lost two kids. 871 00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,880 Speaker 1: The walls are thin. If he starts shooting, we're gonna 872 00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,600 Speaker 1: lose more kids. I hate to say. We have to 873 00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,840 Speaker 1: put those to the side right now, basically saying we 874 00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,520 Speaker 1: have to sacrifice all of the children that are in 875 00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,120 Speaker 1: those two classrooms. That's our only option here, that's all 876 00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:57,120 Speaker 1: we can do. At twelve twenty seven, he actually says 877 00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,560 Speaker 1: people are going to ask why we're taking so long. 878 00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:05,040 Speaker 1: We're trying to preserve the rest of the life. There 879 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,480 Speaker 1: were kids and this teacher too, by the way, who 880 00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,560 Speaker 1: were bleeding out on the floor. There were other kids 881 00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,960 Speaker 1: who had not yet been shot. We know this at 882 00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,360 Speaker 1: this point. There was one of the teachers died on 883 00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,680 Speaker 1: the way to the hospital. A few minutes would have 884 00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:24,520 Speaker 1: saved that life. Yeah, that's exactly right. Nothing twelve twenty eight, 885 00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,440 Speaker 1: he said, we have master keys in there not working. 886 00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,279 Speaker 1: The door was unlocked, and they had the crowbar thing 887 00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,640 Speaker 1: to pop it open even if it wasn't. And then 888 00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,120 Speaker 1: finally at twelve thirty, said Okay, we've cleared on everything 889 00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:37,440 Speaker 1: except for that room. We're ready to breach, but that 890 00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:42,319 Speaker 1: door is locked. And when he finally finally allows the 891 00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:45,719 Speaker 1: Border Patrol agents to go in, he's like, you all 892 00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,520 Speaker 1: can do it if you want to. I mean, it 893 00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,120 Speaker 1: was no, it wasn't like get in, we gotta go. 894 00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,640 Speaker 1: We got it. I guess if you guys want to, 895 00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:57,560 Speaker 1: you can go in. It's it's completely It is just 896 00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,760 Speaker 1: so astonishing. And then the fact that you know, there's 897 00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:02,880 Speaker 1: this cover of not allowing the public to see from 898 00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,279 Speaker 1: themselves after all of the lies and the manipulations that 899 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,959 Speaker 1: they've been caught in one after another. There was another 900 00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,320 Speaker 1: piece of this saga, which is Texas Governor Greg Abbott, 901 00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,320 Speaker 1: who at this point is also implicated in those decisions 902 00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,440 Speaker 1: to keep records from the public. But you know, he 903 00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:20,839 Speaker 1: was very angry publicly about the lies that he had 904 00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:25,440 Speaker 1: been told initially, and they released his handwritten notes saying, 905 00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,279 Speaker 1: you know what they told him specifically had happened, including 906 00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,840 Speaker 1: some of the things that we know now are blatant lies. 907 00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:35,799 Speaker 1: Aradonda was in that room and when Abbot was being 908 00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:38,120 Speaker 1: given this list of what could have spoken up at 909 00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,520 Speaker 1: any time declared of the record. No, none of that 910 00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,719 Speaker 1: ever happened, so it is unconscionable. You know. The other 911 00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:47,040 Speaker 1: piece of this is they are planning on now demolishing 912 00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:49,920 Speaker 1: this elementary school. Rob elementary school, go ahead and put 913 00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,640 Speaker 1: this last piece up on the screen there, guys, which 914 00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,879 Speaker 1: you know, I understand I certainly wouldn't want to send 915 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,799 Speaker 1: my kid there again, but you damn well better get 916 00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,600 Speaker 1: all the evidence out of that before you demolish it, 917 00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,880 Speaker 1: especially when you've got like a pretty clear reluctance to 918 00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:07,680 Speaker 1: show the public anything. And then the news we get is, oh, 919 00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:09,640 Speaker 1: we're just going to demolish the school right away. Okay, 920 00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:15,839 Speaker 1: some coverup vibes, you know, basically here listen, it's difficult 921 00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,880 Speaker 1: to find in smmon the words like yes it is. 922 00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:23,239 Speaker 1: These guys need to be held account in the strongest 923 00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:24,840 Speaker 1: possible way. I was actually thinking about it. You know, 924 00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,479 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty years ago in the frontier days 925 00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:30,680 Speaker 1: of the old West Aradondo and the guys who held 926 00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,000 Speaker 1: this up would have got what's coming to them. And 927 00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:37,000 Speaker 1: you know that's the that's the region, and these kids 928 00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:40,400 Speaker 1: are dead, and the elementary school is now going to 929 00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:44,000 Speaker 1: get demolished. You know, the city itself is going through 930 00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:49,080 Speaker 1: this horrific trauma. The Attorney General seems to be nowhere, 931 00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,160 Speaker 1: not doing anything. I don't know why somebody can't just 932 00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,320 Speaker 1: stand it. It's God's plan. I don't know why somebody 933 00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,880 Speaker 1: can't stand up for Texas. I don't know why. You know, 934 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:01,160 Speaker 1: somebody needs to pay, is really the only answer that 935 00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:04,080 Speaker 1: comes out of here. But we do have details also online. Yeah, 936 00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:08,200 Speaker 1: so it's gone building in terms of Washington's response, to 937 00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:13,000 Speaker 1: my surprise, they actually look like today they are set 938 00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:17,319 Speaker 1: to overcome a Republican filibuster to push forward with this 939 00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,560 Speaker 1: bipartisan gun bill. Go ahead and put this up on 940 00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:22,600 Speaker 1: the screen. We've got by part of this from the 941 00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,080 Speaker 1: New York Times. Bipartisan Gun Bill clear's initial vote in 942 00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,440 Speaker 1: the Senate, the sixty four to thirty four vote, came 943 00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,960 Speaker 1: just hours after Republicans and Democrats release the text of 944 00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,600 Speaker 1: the legislation, which could become the most significant overhaul of 945 00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,560 Speaker 1: the nation's gun laws in decades. Now, listen, they're not 946 00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:40,160 Speaker 1: a whole lot here, but there it is something. Okay, 947 00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,560 Speaker 1: So let me read to you some the details of 948 00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,680 Speaker 1: what's in this eighty page bill, which again is expected 949 00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:51,320 Speaker 1: to overcome filibuster today because you've got somewhere around fourteen 950 00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,439 Speaker 1: Republicans who are supporting it. So the eighty page bill 951 00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:58,239 Speaker 1: would enhance background checks. Specifically, they would give authorities up 952 00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:01,240 Speaker 1: to ten business tastes to review the juvenile and mental 953 00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,680 Speaker 1: health records of gun purchases younger than twenty one, so 954 00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,319 Speaker 1: they're not being banned, but they are subjected to a 955 00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:11,080 Speaker 1: more extensive background check review. It would direct millions toward 956 00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,920 Speaker 1: helping states implement so called red flag laws. So not 957 00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,719 Speaker 1: a national red flag law, but if your state wants 958 00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,960 Speaker 1: to implement a red flag law, the government will give 959 00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,080 Speaker 1: you some money to help you with that. And just 960 00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,160 Speaker 1: as a reminder, the way they describe that here is 961 00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,200 Speaker 1: it allows red flag laws allow authorities to temporarily confiscate 962 00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,240 Speaker 1: guns from people deem dangerous, as well as other intervention programs. 963 00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,520 Speaker 1: Okay would also, for the first time, make sure that 964 00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:37,759 Speaker 1: serious dating partners are included in a federal law that 965 00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:41,480 Speaker 1: bars domestic abusers from purchasing firearms, a longtime party that 966 00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:43,879 Speaker 1: has eluded gun safety advocates for years. I actually think 967 00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:47,960 Speaker 1: that might that In the juvenile background check piece, probably 968 00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:52,840 Speaker 1: the most significant changes here in terms of reducing the 969 00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:56,240 Speaker 1: number of deaths by guns in this country. You also 970 00:49:56,400 --> 00:50:00,920 Speaker 1: have millions of dollars for expanding mental health resources. I 971 00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,839 Speaker 1: read through the specifics, it's not that much money. It's 972 00:50:03,880 --> 00:50:06,839 Speaker 1: not a game changing amount whatsoever. For the mental health piece. 973 00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:08,440 Speaker 1: It looks like a bit of a you know, kind 974 00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:12,280 Speaker 1: of a throwaway sort of a situation. And the legislation 975 00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,560 Speaker 1: would also tough in penalties for those evading licensing requirements 976 00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:18,720 Speaker 1: or making illegal straw purchases, buying and then selling weapons 977 00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:22,280 Speaker 1: to people barred from purchasing handguns. Depends on how that's implemented. 978 00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:24,520 Speaker 1: That could make a difference because we do know that 979 00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,280 Speaker 1: an overwhelming number of guns that are used in violent 980 00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,720 Speaker 1: crime come from a relatively small number of gun dealers. 981 00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,400 Speaker 1: So that's basically it. Again to the point of the 982 00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,279 Speaker 1: mental health piece, just to give you the specific so 983 00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,160 Speaker 1: you know you can judge for yourself whether this is 984 00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,960 Speaker 1: significant or not. They're going to provide sixty million dollars 985 00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:46,000 Speaker 1: over five years to provide mental health and behavioral training 986 00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,560 Speaker 1: for primary and care clinicians, one hundred and fifty million 987 00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:51,200 Speaker 1: to support the National Suicide Prevention Hotline, two hundred and 988 00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:53,920 Speaker 1: forty million over four years for Project Aware program that 989 00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,560 Speaker 1: focuses on mental health support for school children, and twenty 990 00:50:56,680 --> 00:51:01,200 Speaker 1: eight million set aside for trauma care in schools. So 991 00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,520 Speaker 1: that's what we're looking at. Yeah, we got billions for 992 00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:08,000 Speaker 1: Ukraine though apparently yeah, right, and what sixty million over 993 00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:14,200 Speaker 1: five years for mental health and behavioral's training. Okay, So there, 994 00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:17,360 Speaker 1: as I said, were I think fourteen Republicans and fourteen 995 00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,360 Speaker 1: or fifteen that support this bill. Well, they supported cloture. 996 00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:23,239 Speaker 1: I don't know if they're on record saying that they're 997 00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,600 Speaker 1: willing to vote for the bill yet It's okay. Mitch 998 00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:31,279 Speaker 1: McConnell is supporting it, and notably John Cornyn from the 999 00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:34,320 Speaker 1: state of Texas has also not only supportive but was 1000 00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,840 Speaker 1: involved in the negotiations. He is getting hit by Trump 1001 00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:39,600 Speaker 1: for that. Let's go ahead and put this up on 1002 00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:43,200 Speaker 1: the screen. Trump bless Rhino John Cornyn for new gun 1003 00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,000 Speaker 1: bill with all caps alarm, take your guns away. So 1004 00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:50,840 Speaker 1: here's Trump's take his truth on truth social quote. The 1005 00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,400 Speaker 1: deal on gun control, which he puts in quotes for 1006 00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:56,040 Speaker 1: some reason, currently being structured and pushed in the Senate 1007 00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,879 Speaker 1: by the radical left Democrats with the help of Mitch McConnell. Ryan, 1008 00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,959 Speaker 1: you know, Senator John Corner of Texas and others will 1009 00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,560 Speaker 1: go down in history as the first step in the 1010 00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:09,239 Speaker 1: movement to take your guns away. In all caps, Republicans, 1011 00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:11,680 Speaker 1: be careful what you wish for. So he's trying to 1012 00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:16,120 Speaker 1: make Cornyn pay over this. I mean, ultimately it's very 1013 00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:20,200 Speaker 1: limited what this bill actually does. But you know, I've 1014 00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,839 Speaker 1: said from the beginning, I think it's important that they 1015 00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:26,360 Speaker 1: at least do something to show that our nation is 1016 00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:30,719 Speaker 1: capable of responding to a mass tragedy. Every single one 1017 00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:33,799 Speaker 1: of these provisions in this bill, I mean, you're talking 1018 00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,719 Speaker 1: about things that are overwhelmingly popular. I can't imagine that 1019 00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:39,080 Speaker 1: there's a single one of these items that polls under 1020 00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,200 Speaker 1: seventy five percent. They're probably more in the eighties to 1021 00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:46,000 Speaker 1: nineties zone. So overwhelmingly popular. They actually looks like are 1022 00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,120 Speaker 1: going to get something passed. There's a lot of there's 1023 00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,360 Speaker 1: more Republican opposition in the House, but Democrats have the 1024 00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,319 Speaker 1: majority there, so looks like this is going to happen. Yeah, 1025 00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:54,920 Speaker 1: I think the net of the fact, frankly is not 1026 00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,120 Speaker 1: that bad, even though a lot of Republicans are coming 1027 00:52:57,160 --> 00:53:00,319 Speaker 1: out against it. Here's the truth. No red state is 1028 00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,440 Speaker 1: going to pass a red flag law, whether they get 1029 00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,319 Speaker 1: funding for it or not. So if you live in 1030 00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,319 Speaker 1: a red state, you're not gonna have a red flag law. 1031 00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:07,799 Speaker 1: If you live in a blue or a purple or 1032 00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:09,960 Speaker 1: state like I do in Virginia, well we already have 1033 00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:13,040 Speaker 1: a red flag law in Florida. Florida pass one. Well 1034 00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,719 Speaker 1: they passed one. In response to Parkman, well, I'm saying, 1035 00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:19,279 Speaker 1: under the current system, I don't see any new red 1036 00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:22,160 Speaker 1: flag laws going into place. So I'm like, okay, whatever. 1037 00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:23,920 Speaker 1: You know, at the end of the day, these are 1038 00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:26,080 Speaker 1: state by state decisions. They're up to the state legislatures 1039 00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,880 Speaker 1: and to the governors. This is just providing federal funding. 1040 00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:30,759 Speaker 1: I frankly would have loved to have seen a lot 1041 00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,840 Speaker 1: more funding towards the mental health as I think that 1042 00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,720 Speaker 1: would have been the single most and possibly unifying aspect 1043 00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,279 Speaker 1: of the bill. I think it's kind of pathetic that 1044 00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,640 Speaker 1: we could only get seven hundred and fifty million for it. 1045 00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:43,000 Speaker 1: We sent forty four billion dollars or the Ukraine. You know, 1046 00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:46,160 Speaker 1: this just shows you where Congress also, everybody's a deficit 1047 00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,680 Speaker 1: hawk whenever it comes to mental health, bending right, Ukraine 1048 00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,719 Speaker 1: that didn't need to be offset. That was fine. So look, 1049 00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:53,799 Speaker 1: I wish there had been more there. I do. I mean, 1050 00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:55,879 Speaker 1: I think the Republican base will revolt no matter what 1051 00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:57,840 Speaker 1: because of the Red Flag. I think John corn is 1052 00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:00,319 Speaker 1: going to have some serious trouble and that people are 1053 00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,560 Speaker 1: not going to forget whenever because he wants to replace 1054 00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,600 Speaker 1: m McConnell. When is he up for reelection. I think 1055 00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,279 Speaker 1: he's up sometime in the next two years. However, sorry, 1056 00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,560 Speaker 1: no, no no, he just won election. But the thing is 1057 00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,440 Speaker 1: about Cornyn is it's not that he's afraid of losing 1058 00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,120 Speaker 1: his seat. He wants to replace McConnell. He's been in 1059 00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:19,120 Speaker 1: Senate leadership for almost a decade now and is basically 1060 00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,719 Speaker 1: mounting the bid. It's like him and John Thune who 1061 00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:24,240 Speaker 1: are kind of dueling for who will be McConnell's successor 1062 00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:26,839 Speaker 1: McConnell's like eighty years old, and so whenever he's out, 1063 00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:29,680 Speaker 1: they think that Cornyn wants to take his position. I 1064 00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,919 Speaker 1: do think that his position here on the Gun Bill 1065 00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,200 Speaker 1: will give him some trouble with the base. That being said, 1066 00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:37,759 Speaker 1: the base hated McConnell for years, and he's also still 1067 00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:40,000 Speaker 1: remained the leader, So I don't know how it's going 1068 00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,759 Speaker 1: to work out. Do you know what Thoon is doing 1069 00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,360 Speaker 1: on this? John Thune voted against it, so there's a 1070 00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:48,839 Speaker 1: He came out very strongly against it. So there is 1071 00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,880 Speaker 1: a divide in the Senate leadership there, McConnell and Cornyn 1072 00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,279 Speaker 1: supporting clature for the bill, and then Thune kind of 1073 00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,560 Speaker 1: staking his position out frankly with the majority of the 1074 00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,960 Speaker 1: GOP caucus. I think thirty seven of the Republican Senate 1075 00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:03,319 Speaker 1: did vote against it, so there is a split obviously. Yeah, 1076 00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:05,960 Speaker 1: I mean I'm a little skeptical that this is gonna 1077 00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:09,719 Speaker 1: really hamstring the Republicans that vote for just because the 1078 00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:16,040 Speaker 1: provisions are so moderate and mild and relatively weak. On 1079 00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,160 Speaker 1: the other hand, I mean the way that Trump framed 1080 00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:20,640 Speaker 1: it is if you were gonna make a big thing 1081 00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,399 Speaker 1: out of this, this is what the NRA is very 1082 00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:25,200 Speaker 1: good at doing. Also is saying like, even these things 1083 00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,680 Speaker 1: that if you pull them individually, the Republican base will 1084 00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,520 Speaker 1: overwhelmingly be like, yeah, I'm good with that. When you 1085 00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,560 Speaker 1: turn it into like this is an attack on your 1086 00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,799 Speaker 1: Second Amendment rights without the specifics, then it makes it 1087 00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,719 Speaker 1: a much more potent issue. So we'll see how much 1088 00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:39,799 Speaker 1: they lean into this. I'm a little bit skeptical that 1089 00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:42,680 Speaker 1: this will ultimately, you know, really be sort of devastating 1090 00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:44,719 Speaker 1: for Cornin or any of the other one. I don't 1091 00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,840 Speaker 1: I don't think necessarily in the interim, it's a to me, 1092 00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:49,799 Speaker 1: it's an interesting flashpoint. I'm like, huh, I wonder if 1093 00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:51,960 Speaker 1: that's going to affect his leadership chances, like how the 1094 00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,279 Speaker 1: caucus are thinking about it. I don't know if people 1095 00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:55,839 Speaker 1: think of him as a trader or if they are 1096 00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:58,319 Speaker 1: just like, okay, whatever, this is what John wants to do. Yeah, 1097 00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,200 Speaker 1: well you think of swift I mean mansion running in 1098 00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:06,760 Speaker 1: West Virginia. Back the mansion to me, which went further 1099 00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:09,640 Speaker 1: than what this does, and still able to get reelected 1100 00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:12,120 Speaker 1: in westerninian relatively easily. So I don't know, we'll see 1101 00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:13,880 Speaker 1: how We'll see how. I think he will be fine 1102 00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:19,400 Speaker 1: getting elected to Texas. It's his national pay. I'm fascinated. Okay, 1103 00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:25,360 Speaker 1: some interesting comments from Elizabeth Warren recently sort of grilling 1104 00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,319 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. And as you guys know, 1105 00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:33,080 Speaker 1: some of the backdrop here is, of course that because 1106 00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:39,240 Speaker 1: Washington is unwilling to act with regard to inflation, food prices, 1107 00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:42,400 Speaker 1: gas prices in particular. They've punted this thing to the 1108 00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,759 Speaker 1: FED as we've gone over a lot, the FED is 1109 00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,880 Speaker 1: very limited in what they can do. Basically, what they 1110 00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:51,560 Speaker 1: can do is trigger a recession. I mean that's effectively 1111 00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,239 Speaker 1: they're openly admitting, we got to get unemployment up, we 1112 00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:57,000 Speaker 1: got to get wages down. So the one thing that 1113 00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:01,080 Speaker 1: Washington has landed on to do to deal with what is, 1114 00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:05,759 Speaker 1: you know, mostly a supply chain driven inflation crisis, is 1115 00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,960 Speaker 1: to hurt you and your pocketbook. So Elizabeth Warren, I 1116 00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:12,600 Speaker 1: think here does a very effective job of drawing out 1117 00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:17,080 Speaker 1: that reality and what the FED actions can do and 1118 00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,080 Speaker 1: what they cannot do. Let's take a listen to that 1119 00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:22,360 Speaker 1: chare pal, Will gas prices go down as a result 1120 00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:26,280 Speaker 1: of your interest rate increase? I would not think so. Now, okay, 1121 00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:31,400 Speaker 1: and that matters because gas prices are one of the 1122 00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:36,080 Speaker 1: single biggest drivers of inflation. Energy prices overall drove a 1123 00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:40,120 Speaker 1: third of the inflation last month. But the Fed's tools, 1124 00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:43,040 Speaker 1: as you say, have no impact here. So let's look 1125 00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:46,720 Speaker 1: at another necessity, food price of groceries. This is up 1126 00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:50,120 Speaker 1: nearly twelve percent this year Americans feel the pinch. No 1127 00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:52,920 Speaker 1: matter how much groceries cost, people still got to eat. 1128 00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,840 Speaker 1: Chair pal, Will the Fed's inter strate increases bring food 1129 00:57:56,920 --> 00:58:01,520 Speaker 1: prices down for families? I wouldn't say so. No, okay, 1130 00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:06,200 Speaker 1: So a FED increase won't bring down these prices. So 1131 00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:08,600 Speaker 1: she goes on to press him on what will it do? 1132 00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,680 Speaker 1: And of course the answer is spike unemployments. It caused 1133 00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:14,160 Speaker 1: you to lose your job, cause your wages to go down, 1134 00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:18,080 Speaker 1: and potentially trigger a recession. So you can't get gas 1135 00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:21,360 Speaker 1: prices under control, you can't get food prices under control. 1136 00:58:21,640 --> 00:58:24,040 Speaker 1: This is what you can do. And so you know, 1137 00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:26,160 Speaker 1: Sagar was looking at some polling that was being passed 1138 00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,640 Speaker 1: around about how Biden's approbriating with young people is now 1139 00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:31,960 Speaker 1: in twenty five percent, and you think about it. I mean, 1140 00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,120 Speaker 1: you just step back and you're like, Yeah, their policy 1141 00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,240 Speaker 1: with regards to gas prices is literally to increase them 1142 00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:39,840 Speaker 1: through the Russian oil band, as we covered earlier, and 1143 00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,400 Speaker 1: to lean on the FED to effectively trigger a recession. 1144 00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:47,800 Speaker 1: That's their policy. So it's a miracle anyone approves of 1145 00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:52,640 Speaker 1: what they're ultimately doing here. Yeah, and look, he Powell 1146 00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:56,320 Speaker 1: destroyed so many of these talking points you know by Biden. 1147 00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:57,800 Speaker 1: He was like, no, it's not gonna have an effect 1148 00:58:57,800 --> 00:58:59,680 Speaker 1: on food. No, it's not gonna have a fuckt on gas. 1149 00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:01,800 Speaker 1: Like what about inflation? Is that a result of putin 1150 00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,400 Speaker 1: He's like, We've had high inflation before the Russian invasion. 1151 00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:07,960 Speaker 1: So he is doing all he can. He is only 1152 00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,120 Speaker 1: control over interest rates. It's the president who has control 1153 00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:14,520 Speaker 1: over fiscal policy and other policy that actually do something 1154 00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:17,080 Speaker 1: about this inflation, some of which he refuses to do, 1155 00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:20,400 Speaker 1: other than a stupid ass gas tax holiday which won't 1156 00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:23,760 Speaker 1: even happen. So consider that. At the same time, here's 1157 00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:27,000 Speaker 1: what the elites want to do. They basically want to 1158 00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:30,640 Speaker 1: destroy the US economy in order to bring inflation under control. 1159 00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:32,880 Speaker 1: Let's fous on the screen. Here's what Larry Summers said 1160 00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:34,800 Speaker 1: is saying, and he's just saying the choiet part out loud. 1161 00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:37,040 Speaker 1: I don't want to target him specifically, because this is 1162 00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:40,800 Speaker 1: what they all secretly believe. We need five years at 1163 00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:46,720 Speaker 1: six percent unemployment or one year at ten percent unemployment, 1164 00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:52,280 Speaker 1: great recession level unemployment in order to bring inflation under control. 1165 00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:56,240 Speaker 1: And you know what, he's not wrong. He is not 1166 00:59:56,400 --> 01:00:00,600 Speaker 1: wrong that in the current toolkit with considering that the 1167 01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:03,720 Speaker 1: FED is the only policy instrument that actually is the 1168 01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:06,800 Speaker 1: only way in order to do that. The problem is 1169 01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:10,320 Speaker 1: that three percent unemployment we're at now to six percent 1170 01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:13,720 Speaker 1: is I don't know, tens of millions of people in 1171 01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:19,080 Speaker 1: this country ten percent unemployment. I can't even begin to 1172 01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:23,840 Speaker 1: describe our current economic condition and what that would mean 1173 01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:29,280 Speaker 1: for millions of not only workers, but their families and 1174 01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:32,320 Speaker 1: their dependents. People forget the fallout from the Great Retrocession. 1175 01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:34,400 Speaker 1: A lot of people just never went back to work. 1176 01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:36,200 Speaker 1: A lot of people had to drop out of labor force, 1177 01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,680 Speaker 1: or they had to find underemployment, cash employment or working 1178 01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:43,000 Speaker 1: two jobs, lost a lot of benefits, lost their house bottom, 1179 01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:46,280 Speaker 1: fell out of the retirement portfolio, underemployed up until the 1180 01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,200 Speaker 1: day that they could finally get Social Security earlier. You 1181 01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,160 Speaker 1: think that's not going to happen at five years at 1182 01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:54,000 Speaker 1: six percent of employment, millions would drop out of the workforce, 1183 01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:57,280 Speaker 1: millions of people would opt for early retirement and near 1184 01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,800 Speaker 1: poverty wages. And by the way, it's not like the 1185 01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,440 Speaker 1: price of gas would go down either to the extent 1186 01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:06,120 Speaker 1: that gas drops, It'll drop to maybe four dollars and 1187 01:01:06,160 --> 01:01:07,800 Speaker 1: that would not be based on supply, which is what 1188 01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:09,240 Speaker 1: we need to deal with. It would be based on 1189 01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,600 Speaker 1: the fact that people are too poor to drive. I 1190 01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,280 Speaker 1: don't want to live in that correctly correct, I mean, 1191 01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:17,840 Speaker 1: And this is the thing too, is that even if 1192 01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:22,280 Speaker 1: the FED triggers a recession and causes ten percent unemployment, 1193 01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:27,120 Speaker 1: it's not clear that their actions alone will actually get 1194 01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:30,080 Speaker 1: inflation under control. I mean, palace based is admitting it 1195 01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:32,080 Speaker 1: there like nah, this isn't going to really deal with 1196 01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:34,880 Speaker 1: gas or food prices, which are the most painful parts 1197 01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,240 Speaker 1: of inflation for most people. But something that Skanda has 1198 01:01:39,240 --> 01:01:41,160 Speaker 1: been writing about, and also that Dave and Dan has 1199 01:01:41,200 --> 01:01:45,280 Speaker 1: been writing about, is it's not just that the FED 1200 01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:50,000 Speaker 1: will crush demand, and my crush demand that means hurt you, right, wages, 1201 01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:53,280 Speaker 1: your ability to spend money, So your wages will be hit, 1202 01:01:53,480 --> 01:01:56,440 Speaker 1: you may lose your job, destroy your ability to buy 1203 01:01:56,640 --> 01:02:00,439 Speaker 1: all those things. Right, So, not only is the action 1204 01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:03,320 Speaker 1: do that, but it's actually not true that the FED 1205 01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:06,920 Speaker 1: won't do anything on supply. Hiking interest rates will actually 1206 01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:11,680 Speaker 1: hurt supply because you will have some effects of less investment, 1207 01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:16,800 Speaker 1: and that means, you know, less building, less houses being constructed. 1208 01:02:17,080 --> 01:02:19,520 Speaker 1: These sorts of things that. So, you know, if inflation 1209 01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:23,160 Speaker 1: is a mismatch between supply and demand, you're crushing demand, yes, 1210 01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:25,680 Speaker 1: but you're also going to let cause some issues on 1211 01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:30,720 Speaker 1: the supply side, which could exacerbate the problem. So it's 1212 01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:36,680 Speaker 1: not even clear that the Fed's actions alone, without legislative action, 1213 01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:40,360 Speaker 1: without our government actually functioning, and without you know, Biden 1214 01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,919 Speaker 1: stop stop his idiotic policy with regard to Russia also, 1215 01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:48,160 Speaker 1: which is exacerbating the situation, they could actually make things worse. 1216 01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:51,360 Speaker 1: This is something that David dan has been writing over 1217 01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:53,840 Speaker 1: at the American Prospect. We can put this tear sheet 1218 01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:56,280 Speaker 1: up on the screen sort of drawing this out. He says. 1219 01:02:56,320 --> 01:03:00,760 Speaker 1: The Fed's crushing investment right when we need it. He writes, 1220 01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:03,440 Speaker 1: the FED strategy might not cure the disease. It's hard 1221 01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:06,720 Speaker 1: to attribute inflation entirely to an economy running hot when 1222 01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:09,200 Speaker 1: there hasn't been any economic stimul this in fifteen months, 1223 01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:12,400 Speaker 1: fiscal policy is now turned sharply negative. What looks to 1224 01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:14,720 Speaker 1: be the greater problem is a simple shortage in physical 1225 01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:18,080 Speaker 1: capacity to sustain a decent standard of living. The main 1226 01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:20,040 Speaker 1: pockets of inflation right now are in fuel, which is 1227 01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:23,080 Speaker 1: rising because of supply shocks from Ukraine, a bottleneck and 1228 01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:26,640 Speaker 1: refining capacity, food also stunted due to war, and housing 1229 01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:30,400 Speaker 1: damaged by a decade of underbuilding. Investment is needed to 1230 01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,080 Speaker 1: deal with all of these categories, but thanks to the FED, 1231 01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,920 Speaker 1: investment is now harder to do. Indeed, researchers from the 1232 01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:40,640 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently concluded that problems 1233 01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:45,120 Speaker 1: other than demand account for about two thirds of current inflation, 1234 01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,360 Speaker 1: and the only tool we are using is targeting demand. Again, 1235 01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:52,920 Speaker 1: the thing that hurts you when that is not even 1236 01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:55,000 Speaker 1: close to the majority of what's going on here. Well, 1237 01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:56,840 Speaker 1: David is right. I mean, we have to transform the 1238 01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,480 Speaker 1: American economy. It's in the American stock market. We have 1239 01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:01,840 Speaker 1: to build more warehouse space in order to be more 1240 01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:05,680 Speaker 1: comfortable with inventory. We need more manufacturing capacity here in 1241 01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:08,280 Speaker 1: the US so that we don't rely on globalized just 1242 01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:11,320 Speaker 1: in time delivery. We need the ability in order to 1243 01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:14,760 Speaker 1: build resilience into the economy. And that costs money, and 1244 01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:19,600 Speaker 1: that costs That means investment dollars. When you don't invest 1245 01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:22,440 Speaker 1: and you don't have the capital to borrow, well, you're 1246 01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:24,400 Speaker 1: going to have to cut cost. And when you cut cost, 1247 01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:26,560 Speaker 1: you both cut investments and you cut jobs, and then 1248 01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:29,000 Speaker 1: when demand goes down, you have further revenue that's coming 1249 01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:31,240 Speaker 1: in the door, which affects your ability to borrow. So 1250 01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:34,400 Speaker 1: you're only to become leaner. And shareholderism means that we're 1251 01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:36,160 Speaker 1: going to try and squeeze even more values out of 1252 01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:38,120 Speaker 1: the stock. The best way to do so is what 1253 01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:41,000 Speaker 1: cut even more jobs, get more investment. So at the 1254 01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:45,600 Speaker 1: time when America needs investment more than ever, we are 1255 01:04:46,040 --> 01:04:48,840 Speaker 1: effectively choosing the opposite. I think we should all take 1256 01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:51,800 Speaker 1: cham and powells words to heart, which is he is 1257 01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:54,880 Speaker 1: admitting to us it will not affect us. That's right. 1258 01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,240 Speaker 1: And the sad thing is we had a lot of 1259 01:04:57,320 --> 01:05:02,560 Speaker 1: years at zero percent interest rates this investment and instead companies, 1260 01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:06,120 Speaker 1: you know, bought back their own stock and issued dividends 1261 01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:09,920 Speaker 1: and they didn't do the investment. The federal government completely hamstrung, 1262 01:05:10,040 --> 01:05:12,560 Speaker 1: they didn't do the investment. So that's the other piece 1263 01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,919 Speaker 1: is we had this window of a decade to set 1264 01:05:16,920 --> 01:05:19,840 Speaker 1: ourselves up for the future so that you know, and reshore, 1265 01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:24,600 Speaker 1: job reshorre capacity all of those things, and we lost it. 1266 01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:28,200 Speaker 1: So it's it is, guys, I really think it's going 1267 01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:30,280 Speaker 1: to be ugly. I'm very concerned about where we're headed 1268 01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,240 Speaker 1: right now. I think it's going to be bad unfortunately 1269 01:05:32,280 --> 01:05:35,000 Speaker 1: as well. Okay, all right, let's talk about MSNBC. Things 1270 01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:37,600 Speaker 1: are bad, as we just laid out. People need to 1271 01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:39,640 Speaker 1: be honest. I think that we are here on our 1272 01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:43,120 Speaker 1: program about what that means for you and elsewhere, however, 1273 01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:45,280 Speaker 1: and to try and speak to the pain that I 1274 01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:48,280 Speaker 1: know that so many tens of millions are feeling over 1275 01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:51,480 Speaker 1: on MSNBC, they have a different tactic, so they invited 1276 01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:55,600 Speaker 1: the Washington Posts personal finance columnists on here's her advice 1277 01:05:55,720 --> 01:05:59,520 Speaker 1: on why you shouldn't be worried about gas prices. There's 1278 01:05:59,600 --> 01:06:03,320 Speaker 1: a great deal of Americans where it is uncomfortable that 1279 01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:06,240 Speaker 1: they're spending more, but they are not going to go under. 1280 01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:10,240 Speaker 1: You know, you got to stop complaining when there's so 1281 01:06:10,320 --> 01:06:13,960 Speaker 1: many people who literally the inflation rate means they may 1282 01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:17,080 Speaker 1: only have two meals instead of three. There are Americans 1283 01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:20,240 Speaker 1: who did extremely well in the last two years in 1284 01:06:20,280 --> 01:06:23,560 Speaker 1: the market. You still have your job, and yeah, it's 1285 01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:25,800 Speaker 1: costing you more for gas, but guess what, You're still 1286 01:06:25,800 --> 01:06:28,120 Speaker 1: going to take that holiday, that Fourth of July vacation. 1287 01:06:28,280 --> 01:06:30,480 Speaker 1: You can still eat out. So I'm going to need 1288 01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:34,000 Speaker 1: you to calm down and back off. Calm down, back off. 1289 01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:38,240 Speaker 1: You can still afford it. Consider the implications of what 1290 01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:41,880 Speaker 1: you're saying, which is that, listen, it's fine. You're still 1291 01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:44,880 Speaker 1: going to be able to live your life, so you 1292 01:06:44,920 --> 01:06:49,120 Speaker 1: should stop complaining. Now. I grew up in a country 1293 01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:53,440 Speaker 1: in the nineteen nineties where the overwhelming idea that we 1294 01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:55,120 Speaker 1: were all fed is that all of us were going 1295 01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:56,840 Speaker 1: to be better off than our parents when our parents 1296 01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:58,640 Speaker 1: came here, while a lot of people still want to 1297 01:06:58,680 --> 01:07:01,320 Speaker 1: come here. That was kind of the underlying ethos of 1298 01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:05,240 Speaker 1: the American dream. This is basically, sit down, shut up, 1299 01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:08,960 Speaker 1: calm down, back off. Also, just because you're still driving 1300 01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:11,600 Speaker 1: and want to pursue a leisure activity with your family 1301 01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:15,720 Speaker 1: after two years of being locked up, does that mean 1302 01:07:15,800 --> 01:07:19,400 Speaker 1: you should be penalized five dollars a gas? Also, she 1303 01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:21,280 Speaker 1: was like, yeah, some people have to cut back from 1304 01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:23,840 Speaker 1: three meals to two. Do you know what that means? 1305 01:07:24,280 --> 01:07:26,080 Speaker 1: Do you actually know what that means? Because we do. 1306 01:07:26,360 --> 01:07:29,040 Speaker 1: We covered here actually about how the even removal child 1307 01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:31,800 Speaker 1: Task Credit means that millions of children are actually now 1308 01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:35,680 Speaker 1: on the precipice of hunger. Or are food insecure. You're 1309 01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:38,880 Speaker 1: in America, so this actually has serious implications. A majority 1310 01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:42,720 Speaker 1: of families are struggling to feed their kids right now, 1311 01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:47,160 Speaker 1: So I think she is not really in touch with 1312 01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:51,280 Speaker 1: how many Americans are at the edge or behind and 1313 01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:54,280 Speaker 1: struggling and already you're at that two meals a day. 1314 01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,400 Speaker 1: We read those statistics about the number of parents who 1315 01:07:57,400 --> 01:07:59,560 Speaker 1: are having the skip meal so that they could feed 1316 01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:03,720 Speaker 1: their number of families who just literally can't make it 1317 01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:07,080 Speaker 1: and already relying on food pantries. I mean, how can 1318 01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:10,440 Speaker 1: you be so out of touch with how much pain 1319 01:08:10,600 --> 01:08:14,520 Speaker 1: and struggle there already is and just sort of casually 1320 01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:18,679 Speaker 1: wave it away. I will never understand. And this goes 1321 01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:21,800 Speaker 1: back to the Biden comments about like, oh, you know, 1322 01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:25,439 Speaker 1: we need to We've paraphrasing, but basically like we got 1323 01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:27,320 Speaker 1: to accept the higher gas prices because we're going to 1324 01:08:27,360 --> 01:08:30,800 Speaker 1: stick it to Putin, which isn't even working. It's all 1325 01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:34,479 Speaker 1: for nothing. You're enriching Putin, you're making his regime. While 1326 01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:36,800 Speaker 1: then of the rubles had his best year, you know, 1327 01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:40,480 Speaker 1: in a long time. It's the best concern can performing 1328 01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:44,960 Speaker 1: currency in the world this year. So I don't know 1329 01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:48,000 Speaker 1: what to say. But this also goes back to the 1330 01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:53,240 Speaker 1: problem of how our journalists are. I don't know. I 1331 01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:55,320 Speaker 1: don't actually know this individual. I don't know what the 1332 01:08:55,320 --> 01:08:57,320 Speaker 1: rest of her commentary is. I don't want to fully 1333 01:08:57,360 --> 01:08:58,960 Speaker 1: judge her based on this or what her bi So 1334 01:08:59,120 --> 01:09:02,320 Speaker 1: this isn't specifically about her. But this also is part 1335 01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:06,320 Speaker 1: of a culture of elite journalism that only recruits from 1336 01:09:06,360 --> 01:09:09,599 Speaker 1: one class of society, and so you're in a complete 1337 01:09:09,600 --> 01:09:13,200 Speaker 1: class bubble and utterly disconnected from what it is like 1338 01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:15,600 Speaker 1: for people on a danity. Your personal finance columnist is 1339 01:09:15,680 --> 01:09:20,240 Speaker 1: zooming into national talis, Like, do you not at least 1340 01:09:20,280 --> 01:09:23,960 Speaker 1: like think about the conditions on which you're speaking and 1341 01:09:24,160 --> 01:09:26,880 Speaker 1: what that means to so many people? Yeah, I mean 1342 01:09:26,920 --> 01:09:29,519 Speaker 1: I get messages all the time. There's some people who 1343 01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:31,800 Speaker 1: send me the daily price of gas in their area. 1344 01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:33,960 Speaker 1: I'm like, I know, it's high. I get, you know, 1345 01:09:34,040 --> 01:09:36,080 Speaker 1: but I think the reason they're doing so is because 1346 01:09:36,120 --> 01:09:37,360 Speaker 1: we're one of the only people who were just going 1347 01:09:37,400 --> 01:09:39,639 Speaker 1: to talk about it, who are like, yeah, I mean, 1348 01:09:39,760 --> 01:09:43,800 Speaker 1: I I can't imagine. You know, people are posting like 1349 01:09:44,040 --> 01:09:46,360 Speaker 1: a half hour forty five to a minute hour long 1350 01:09:46,439 --> 01:09:50,240 Speaker 1: lines in costco and still filling up their Toyota camera 1351 01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:55,519 Speaker 1: for like seventy dollars, like spending valuable time then having 1352 01:09:55,680 --> 01:09:59,599 Speaker 1: to spend crazy sums of money in order to fill 1353 01:09:59,680 --> 01:10:02,200 Speaker 1: up their car and be able to go to work. 1354 01:10:02,400 --> 01:10:05,639 Speaker 1: And the poorer you are, the harder this is that's 1355 01:10:05,680 --> 01:10:08,160 Speaker 1: going to hit you. And let's say you're even middle class, 1356 01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:11,519 Speaker 1: why do you deserve to pay five dollars? You don't? 1357 01:10:11,600 --> 01:10:13,639 Speaker 1: You know, we live in a country with the promise 1358 01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:17,160 Speaker 1: of prosperity. It's been the promise of America since since 1359 01:10:17,160 --> 01:10:19,680 Speaker 1: our founding, and you know, the expansion west and that 1360 01:10:19,840 --> 01:10:22,720 Speaker 1: great resources have been bestowed in land and more like, 1361 01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:25,240 Speaker 1: that was the idea of what we are. So I 1362 01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:28,040 Speaker 1: just think it's antithetical to all of that. It's a 1363 01:10:28,120 --> 01:10:31,439 Speaker 1: cruel message, unfortunately, and I think it does belie how 1364 01:10:31,479 --> 01:10:34,439 Speaker 1: a lot of people in this town think about it. All. Yes, 1365 01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:38,639 Speaker 1: and it's often everything nothing is the fault of elites, who, oh, 1366 01:10:38,680 --> 01:10:40,599 Speaker 1: we can't do anything about it, when of course we've 1367 01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:43,960 Speaker 1: talked repeatedly about some of the things that could be done, 1368 01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:46,559 Speaker 1: and it's all, you know, it's all the fault of 1369 01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:48,800 Speaker 1: the common person. It's all the fault of the voter. First, 1370 01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:53,920 Speaker 1: they need to get their head straight. That's all soccer, Okay, Chris, 1371 01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:56,200 Speaker 1: what are you taking a look at? Another week? Another 1372 01:10:56,280 --> 01:10:59,120 Speaker 1: sign that the dominant political and economic order of the 1373 01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:03,160 Speaker 1: last forty plus years is cracking up completely so. In France, 1374 01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:07,200 Speaker 1: Lapenn's right and Melencholm's left both surged, delivering a stunning 1375 01:11:07,240 --> 01:11:11,160 Speaker 1: review to Macron's center right party. The Horseshoe surge denied 1376 01:11:11,200 --> 01:11:13,639 Speaker 1: the French president and outright majority for the first time 1377 01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:17,439 Speaker 1: in twenty years. In Colombia, a leftist has been elected 1378 01:11:17,479 --> 01:11:20,679 Speaker 1: president for the first time ever in that nation's history, 1379 01:11:20,720 --> 01:11:22,920 Speaker 1: in a runoff that featured a choice between a right 1380 01:11:22,960 --> 01:11:26,519 Speaker 1: wing populist and a left wing populist. The establishment figure 1381 01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:29,120 Speaker 1: had already been knocked down in shocking fashion in the 1382 01:11:29,200 --> 01:11:32,080 Speaker 1: first round of voting. Latin America seems to be in 1383 01:11:32,120 --> 01:11:36,240 Speaker 1: the midst of a massive left shift, with wins in Chile, Olivia, Argentina, Honduras, 1384 01:11:36,320 --> 01:11:39,439 Speaker 1: and Lula looking pretty dominant right now in Brazil. All 1385 01:11:39,479 --> 01:11:41,479 Speaker 1: of this seems to point to the decline of the 1386 01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:44,120 Speaker 1: economic model that has been foisted on our own nation 1387 01:11:44,200 --> 01:11:47,160 Speaker 1: and on the world, the model that puts capital over everything, 1388 01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:50,880 Speaker 1: which lionizes global trade that benefits corporations and disregards the 1389 01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:55,000 Speaker 1: impacts on human beings that substitutes the workings of markets. 1390 01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:57,800 Speaker 1: For I don't know actual values the model that we 1391 01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:00,800 Speaker 1: all call neoliberalism. Now, honestly, I kind of try to 1392 01:12:00,880 --> 01:12:03,080 Speaker 1: limit my use of that word because I understand it 1393 01:12:03,120 --> 01:12:05,519 Speaker 1: can be an eye glazer, but it is the best 1394 01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:08,719 Speaker 1: shorthand we have to describe the era of deregulation, low taxes, 1395 01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:11,160 Speaker 1: small safety net, and blind faith in the markets that 1396 01:12:11,200 --> 01:12:14,240 Speaker 1: has been the only real economic model on offer since 1397 01:12:14,280 --> 01:12:17,479 Speaker 1: the collapse of the Soviet Union. Of course, the crackup 1398 01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:20,639 Speaker 1: of neoliberalism has looked kind of imminent for a while. 1399 01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:24,200 Speaker 1: Now it's seemingly inevitable. Destruction smacked us all right in 1400 01:12:24,240 --> 01:12:25,920 Speaker 1: the face with the rise of Bernie and Trump in 1401 01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:29,639 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, which paired along with the rebuke of Hillary Clinton. 1402 01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,240 Speaker 1: You'd be hard pressed to find a more perfect emblem 1403 01:12:32,280 --> 01:12:36,080 Speaker 1: of the bipartisan neoliberal commitment than the former First Lady 1404 01:12:36,080 --> 01:12:40,160 Speaker 1: whose husband ushered through NAFTA, China's ascension to the wto deregulation, 1405 01:12:40,280 --> 01:12:43,000 Speaker 1: tax cuts for the rich, and ended welfare as we 1406 01:12:43,160 --> 01:12:45,839 Speaker 1: know it. And there are actually signs that the religion 1407 01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:49,800 Speaker 1: of globalization had been on the wane before Trump even 1408 01:12:49,880 --> 01:12:52,479 Speaker 1: came along. In Gary Gersl's book The Rise and Fall 1409 01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:55,760 Speaker 1: of the Neoliberal Order, he points out that total international 1410 01:12:55,760 --> 01:12:58,000 Speaker 1: trade actually peaked back in two thousand and eight. It 1411 01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:01,360 Speaker 1: predictably collapsed during the Great Recession, but it's never recovered 1412 01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:04,080 Speaker 1: again to its pre crash levels. As he writes, quote, 1413 01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:07,400 Speaker 1: twenty first century globalization, in other words, may have crested 1414 01:13:07,560 --> 01:13:11,280 Speaker 1: and begun to recede before Trump took office. His protectionist 1415 01:13:11,320 --> 01:13:14,720 Speaker 1: policies may have been pushing open and open door. Protectionism 1416 01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:17,799 Speaker 1: had been a dirty word of political economy for thirty years. 1417 01:13:17,840 --> 01:13:21,760 Speaker 1: It no longer was not for Republicans and not for Democrats. 1418 01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:26,439 Speaker 1: And yet, somehow, even as the neoliberal order was left 1419 01:13:26,479 --> 01:13:30,200 Speaker 1: for dead, Joe Biden became president and after some initial flirtations, 1420 01:13:30,200 --> 01:13:33,240 Speaker 1: has fallen straight back into his neoliberal comfort zone. This 1421 01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:36,320 Speaker 1: is evident in floating a gas tax holiday, a corporate 1422 01:13:36,360 --> 01:13:38,879 Speaker 1: friendly tinker that will do little for consumers and defers 1423 01:13:38,920 --> 01:13:41,000 Speaker 1: to the wisdom of the markets, rather than taking any 1424 01:13:41,040 --> 01:13:43,800 Speaker 1: direct government intervention of the sort that leftists have been 1425 01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:46,960 Speaker 1: arguing for. Oh I forgot. He also sent a strongly 1426 01:13:47,000 --> 01:13:49,519 Speaker 1: worded letter to the oil and gas bosses. I'm sure 1427 01:13:49,520 --> 01:13:52,200 Speaker 1: that's going to do the trick, But there are reasons 1428 01:13:52,240 --> 01:13:55,000 Speaker 1: to believe that the Biden neoliberal moment might be more 1429 01:13:55,000 --> 01:13:57,839 Speaker 1: of a blip than a resurgent force. The current president 1430 01:13:57,920 --> 01:14:00,360 Speaker 1: might be serving in a similar transitional rule as to 1431 01:14:00,360 --> 01:14:03,439 Speaker 1: what Jimmy Carter did. Carter was a transitional president between 1432 01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:07,120 Speaker 1: the flagging New Deal era and Reagan's era defining neoliberalism. 1433 01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:12,479 Speaker 1: Biden might be the transition between neoliberalism and whatever happens next, 1434 01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:15,600 Speaker 1: because even in Biden's administration, there have actually been some 1435 01:14:15,680 --> 01:14:18,200 Speaker 1: signs of a shift away from that bipartisan consensus of 1436 01:14:18,200 --> 01:14:20,679 Speaker 1: the last forty years. The repeated use of the Defense 1437 01:14:20,760 --> 01:14:24,719 Speaker 1: Production Act is one example, using that to use government 1438 01:14:24,760 --> 01:14:27,120 Speaker 1: power to compel business to act in the national interests. 1439 01:14:27,240 --> 01:14:30,040 Speaker 1: The continuation of Trump's China terrifs the push towards an 1440 01:14:30,040 --> 01:14:33,120 Speaker 1: industrial policy that would reshore some jobs here in the US. 1441 01:14:33,520 --> 01:14:37,479 Speaker 1: And beyond that, there are massive currents afoot right now 1442 01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:41,120 Speaker 1: that together are pretty likely to crush the neoliberal era, 1443 01:14:41,400 --> 01:14:44,120 Speaker 1: no matter how fast Washington tries to hold to that 1444 01:14:44,200 --> 01:14:47,800 Speaker 1: crumbling order. So first, as I alluded to before, neoliberalism 1445 01:14:47,840 --> 01:14:49,880 Speaker 1: reigns supreme at home and abroad, in part because it 1446 01:14:49,920 --> 01:14:51,960 Speaker 1: was really the only game in town. The New Deal 1447 01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:54,479 Speaker 1: consensus that was forged out of a need to compete 1448 01:14:54,479 --> 01:14:57,120 Speaker 1: with communism, with the fascism after the collapse of the 1449 01:14:57,120 --> 01:15:00,679 Speaker 1: Soviet Union, American style capitalism was, with a handful of exceptions, 1450 01:15:00,720 --> 01:15:05,120 Speaker 1: the only ongoing economic project. The rise of China's illiberal 1451 01:15:05,360 --> 01:15:08,439 Speaker 1: state led capitalism has created an alternative, with elements taken 1452 01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,200 Speaker 1: up by ethno nationalists around the world. The Green Party, 1453 01:15:11,280 --> 01:15:13,639 Speaker 1: leftism on the rise in Europe and Latin America could 1454 01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:17,280 Speaker 1: provide another alternative. So neoliberalism now has a little bit 1455 01:15:17,280 --> 01:15:20,760 Speaker 1: of competition, and, judging by the mass inequality, corruption, and 1456 01:15:20,840 --> 01:15:26,439 Speaker 1: institutional decline, Americans themselves no longer satisfied with that status quo. Second, 1457 01:15:26,640 --> 01:15:30,880 Speaker 1: the pandemic, it really did change and accelerate everything, demonstrate 1458 01:15:30,920 --> 01:15:33,840 Speaker 1: the ability of our government to improve citizens' lives when 1459 01:15:33,840 --> 01:15:36,320 Speaker 1: they actually want to. It put the essential work of 1460 01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:39,559 Speaker 1: service workers in pink collar workers on full display. That 1461 01:15:39,640 --> 01:15:42,519 Speaker 1: in turn has given them the boldness and public support 1462 01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:47,000 Speaker 1: to demand better conditions. Post pandemic. It accelerated inequality with 1463 01:15:47,080 --> 01:15:50,200 Speaker 1: massive asset bubbles and stock market record breaking gains, while 1464 01:15:50,240 --> 01:15:55,200 Speaker 1: unemployment also skyrocketed. It illustrated the false promises of globalization. 1465 01:15:55,520 --> 01:15:58,639 Speaker 1: After all, I'll remember, deal we were promised was shure. 1466 01:15:58,720 --> 01:16:01,479 Speaker 1: Your town and its workers and small businesses might be crushed, 1467 01:16:01,520 --> 01:16:05,360 Speaker 1: but at least you're gonna get cheap prices. Now we 1468 01:16:05,400 --> 01:16:08,000 Speaker 1: don't even have the cheap prices, and we are left 1469 01:16:08,040 --> 01:16:10,880 Speaker 1: in the lurch when we realized absolutely essential items like 1470 01:16:10,960 --> 01:16:15,320 Speaker 1: mass counts and semiconductor chips were all made somewhere else. Third, 1471 01:16:15,840 --> 01:16:18,840 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine has also accelerated the trend away 1472 01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:22,400 Speaker 1: from globalization and caused a greater world fracturing with Russian 1473 01:16:22,520 --> 01:16:24,840 Speaker 1: China on one side and the West on the other. 1474 01:16:25,280 --> 01:16:27,880 Speaker 1: Our imposition of a sort of new Iron curtain on 1475 01:16:27,960 --> 01:16:30,800 Speaker 1: Russia is going to incensivize a lot of nations to 1476 01:16:30,920 --> 01:16:34,080 Speaker 1: shift away from the globalized systems that we here in 1477 01:16:34,080 --> 01:16:37,800 Speaker 1: the US run and dominate. For us, the problems with 1478 01:16:37,880 --> 01:16:39,439 Speaker 1: relying on the rest of the world that were raised 1479 01:16:39,439 --> 01:16:42,679 Speaker 1: by the pandemic were also brought home further by the war. 1480 01:16:43,240 --> 01:16:45,759 Speaker 1: And the final factor here is a real wild card, 1481 01:16:46,080 --> 01:16:49,680 Speaker 1: the FED engineered recession that we are staring down. As 1482 01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:53,080 Speaker 1: I discussed on Tuesday, the FED policy will cause unemployment, misery, 1483 01:16:53,200 --> 01:16:55,519 Speaker 1: and death. It will also likely squeeze some of the 1484 01:16:55,520 --> 01:16:58,480 Speaker 1: fakery and mania that has driven markets for the last decade. 1485 01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:01,160 Speaker 1: We have all become used to, and many profit off 1486 01:17:01,200 --> 01:17:03,719 Speaker 1: of an economy that is basically built on a fake 1487 01:17:03,760 --> 01:17:07,320 Speaker 1: foundation of Wall Street speculation. Firms that once invested in 1488 01:17:07,320 --> 01:17:10,799 Speaker 1: innovation now they borrow money not to create new products, 1489 01:17:10,800 --> 01:17:13,599 Speaker 1: but to pay off their shareholders and goose thrown stock prices. 1490 01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:17,800 Speaker 1: Venture capitalists feed endless cash into Uber and its many copycats, 1491 01:17:17,840 --> 01:17:21,439 Speaker 1: subsidizing unprofitable companies with cheap cash in the expectation that 1492 01:17:21,479 --> 01:17:24,200 Speaker 1: maybe one day they can translate large customer bases into 1493 01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:28,080 Speaker 1: actual profit. Meme stocks and meme coins and NFTs get 1494 01:17:28,120 --> 01:17:30,799 Speaker 1: pushed by promoters or getting paid in cash to convince 1495 01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:32,960 Speaker 1: the little guy they're hopping on board with the next 1496 01:17:33,040 --> 01:17:38,120 Speaker 1: big thing. When that fake economy crashes and the hollow, desiccated, 1497 01:17:38,360 --> 01:17:41,320 Speaker 1: vulture eaten guts of the American economy are revealed for 1498 01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:44,360 Speaker 1: all to see. I truly don't know what will happen next, 1499 01:17:44,600 --> 01:17:46,840 Speaker 1: but I have a feeling it's not going to be 1500 01:17:46,920 --> 01:17:51,080 Speaker 1: a neoliberal renaissance. Now. On the domestic political front, Republicans 1501 01:17:51,160 --> 01:17:52,920 Speaker 1: right now, we talked about this today. They're kind of 1502 01:17:52,960 --> 01:17:55,040 Speaker 1: grappling with how much they want to deviate from the 1503 01:17:55,040 --> 01:17:57,960 Speaker 1: neoliberal consensus. Will they just dress up some of their 1504 01:17:58,000 --> 01:18:01,040 Speaker 1: old policies and class centric language and hope their stances 1505 01:18:01,040 --> 01:18:03,519 Speaker 1: in reaction to cultural liberalism. It's going to be enough 1506 01:18:03,520 --> 01:18:06,680 Speaker 1: to satisfy the masses. We already know what the Democrats 1507 01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:09,439 Speaker 1: want to do. They want to bury the Bernie Left 1508 01:18:09,520 --> 01:18:13,200 Speaker 1: and its young enthusiastic adherents, crushing them with admonitions that 1509 01:18:13,240 --> 01:18:16,200 Speaker 1: they must vote blue no matter who. They are betting 1510 01:18:16,400 --> 01:18:18,840 Speaker 1: that the person of Trump will be so odious and 1511 01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:21,840 Speaker 1: the two party system choice so limiting that voters will 1512 01:18:21,880 --> 01:18:25,400 Speaker 1: have no option but to stick with Biden and his neoliberalism. 1513 01:18:25,800 --> 01:18:28,639 Speaker 1: In making this bet, though they are betting against history 1514 01:18:28,760 --> 01:18:32,479 Speaker 1: and ultimately sowing the seeds of their own demise, the 1515 01:18:32,520 --> 01:18:36,280 Speaker 1: curtains will close on the neoliberal era, and no younger 1516 01:18:36,320 --> 01:18:39,960 Speaker 1: embodiment of the older order, not Commala, not Pete for 1517 01:18:40,080 --> 01:18:43,280 Speaker 1: anyone else, is going to be able to save them. 1518 01:18:43,680 --> 01:18:48,360 Speaker 1: There are so many confluence of factors coming together. And 1519 01:18:48,400 --> 01:18:51,120 Speaker 1: if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, 1520 01:18:51,120 --> 01:18:56,519 Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, Zacher, 1521 01:18:56,560 --> 01:18:58,880 Speaker 1: what are looking at well. Sticking with historical theme of 1522 01:18:58,920 --> 01:19:01,559 Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies, I find myself thinking in this week, 1523 01:19:01,680 --> 01:19:04,240 Speaker 1: if there is a single problem that defeated Jimmy Carter 1524 01:19:04,320 --> 01:19:07,160 Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty, it was the gas crisis. Yes, this 1525 01:19:07,320 --> 01:19:10,479 Speaker 1: was precipitated and intertwined with his handling of the Iranian Revolution, 1526 01:19:10,760 --> 01:19:13,439 Speaker 1: but at its core, the election of nineteen eighty was 1527 01:19:13,439 --> 01:19:17,880 Speaker 1: a rejection of the chaos in American life. It manifested 1528 01:19:17,920 --> 01:19:22,080 Speaker 1: itself in the most important form of gas lines, gas shortages, 1529 01:19:22,360 --> 01:19:25,519 Speaker 1: fights in the street, high interest rates, the feeling that 1530 01:19:25,520 --> 01:19:29,400 Speaker 1: the American dream was dead. Things aren't that bad yet 1531 01:19:29,560 --> 01:19:31,559 Speaker 1: here in the United States, but given that we've had 1532 01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:33,960 Speaker 1: about fifty years to ensure it would never happen again, 1533 01:19:34,120 --> 01:19:36,479 Speaker 1: and we're experiencing i don't know, maybe seventy five percent 1534 01:19:36,520 --> 01:19:38,400 Speaker 1: of what they did back then, I would say that's 1535 01:19:38,439 --> 01:19:41,839 Speaker 1: a pretty catastrophic failure. Now with Biden, I've already described 1536 01:19:41,880 --> 01:19:45,000 Speaker 1: how he basically is Jimmy Carter, but worse, he's much older. 1537 01:19:45,080 --> 01:19:47,599 Speaker 1: He lacks the ability to learn from Carter's mistakes, which 1538 01:19:47,600 --> 01:19:49,479 Speaker 1: he was alive and in an office for, and to 1539 01:19:49,560 --> 01:19:52,680 Speaker 1: give the American people a visionary plan and confidence to 1540 01:19:52,800 --> 01:19:55,519 Speaker 1: rise up from the crisis and emerge not only a 1541 01:19:55,520 --> 01:19:58,760 Speaker 1: new but better off. As I've long harped on the 1542 01:19:58,800 --> 01:20:01,519 Speaker 1: gas crisis and by handling of it since the invasion 1543 01:20:01,560 --> 01:20:05,439 Speaker 1: of Ukraine has been an abject disaster. Him and his 1544 01:20:05,479 --> 01:20:09,280 Speaker 1: administration knowingly are constraining the supply of oil with Russian 1545 01:20:09,280 --> 01:20:12,559 Speaker 1: oil sanctions and are in the interim doing nothing to 1546 01:20:12,680 --> 01:20:15,439 Speaker 1: reduce the price of gas. Here at home, I've done 1547 01:20:15,520 --> 01:20:18,719 Speaker 1: multiple segments here about how to decrease the price of gas. 1548 01:20:18,840 --> 01:20:21,000 Speaker 1: You can watch them all in earlier segments. They'll be 1549 01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:23,200 Speaker 1: in the newsletter for premium subs. But to sum it 1550 01:20:23,280 --> 01:20:27,360 Speaker 1: up again, they all have to do with supply. Right now, 1551 01:20:27,560 --> 01:20:30,479 Speaker 1: we have high demand for gas, and we have a 1552 01:20:30,520 --> 01:20:33,560 Speaker 1: major supply problem. The supply problem is a result of 1553 01:20:33,600 --> 01:20:36,800 Speaker 1: the Russian invasion of Wall Street investors not letting oil 1554 01:20:36,840 --> 01:20:40,960 Speaker 1: companies pursue exploration to recoup losses from over the last decade. Okay, 1555 01:20:41,240 --> 01:20:44,160 Speaker 1: it doesn't take a genius to say, well, nuking demand 1556 01:20:44,320 --> 01:20:46,720 Speaker 1: is bad, because that means people's quality of life will 1557 01:20:46,720 --> 01:20:49,200 Speaker 1: suffer dramatically. So let's just do everything that we can 1558 01:20:49,360 --> 01:20:52,519 Speaker 1: on supply. Not only has the Biden administration not done 1559 01:20:52,560 --> 01:20:54,800 Speaker 1: that not only has their plan on supply been to 1560 01:20:55,040 --> 01:20:58,559 Speaker 1: genuinely ask oil companies to be quote patriots, they are 1561 01:20:58,640 --> 01:21:01,879 Speaker 1: now floating what would be one of the dumbest ideas 1562 01:21:01,920 --> 01:21:04,679 Speaker 1: of all time. President Biden is set to ask Congress 1563 01:21:04,680 --> 01:21:06,679 Speaker 1: to suspend the federal gas tax for the next three 1564 01:21:06,680 --> 01:21:09,320 Speaker 1: months through the summer driving season. Now, such a plan, 1565 01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:13,559 Speaker 1: if enacted, would save consumers just eighteen cents per gallon, 1566 01:21:13,840 --> 01:21:16,800 Speaker 1: but at a deeper level, just think about it. The 1567 01:21:16,800 --> 01:21:19,479 Speaker 1: administration's big plan, which they've had nearly a year to 1568 01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:22,760 Speaker 1: come up with, just to try and save you a 1569 01:21:22,960 --> 01:21:27,640 Speaker 1: minuscule amount at the pump while stimulating demand in the 1570 01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:32,920 Speaker 1: peak season and then not doing anything about supply. It 1571 01:21:32,960 --> 01:21:35,439 Speaker 1: does not take an economist to figure out that this 1572 01:21:35,520 --> 01:21:38,320 Speaker 1: will increase the price of gas further, it will hit 1573 01:21:38,360 --> 01:21:40,599 Speaker 1: demand when it's already hot, and it will do nothing 1574 01:21:40,640 --> 01:21:43,919 Speaker 1: about constraining supply. If this would work, I would advocate 1575 01:21:43,960 --> 01:21:47,040 Speaker 1: for it. But consider this. On June first, New York 1576 01:21:47,080 --> 01:21:49,759 Speaker 1: suspended its motor fuel tax of eight cents a gallon, 1577 01:21:49,960 --> 01:21:52,200 Speaker 1: as well as its four cents sales tax on up 1578 01:21:52,280 --> 01:21:55,000 Speaker 1: to two dollars a gallon on a day. The average 1579 01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:58,000 Speaker 1: price of gas that day in New York State was 1580 01:21:58,040 --> 01:22:01,000 Speaker 1: four dollars and ninety three cents. Two weeks after what 1581 01:22:01,120 --> 01:22:04,360 Speaker 1: is an effective sixteen cent per gallon DAX holiday went 1582 01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:06,479 Speaker 1: into effect in the state of New York, the price 1583 01:22:06,520 --> 01:22:10,320 Speaker 1: of gas was five dollars and four cents a gallon. Furthermore, 1584 01:22:10,400 --> 01:22:12,559 Speaker 1: it pains me to agree with Jason Furman here, but 1585 01:22:12,680 --> 01:22:16,719 Speaker 1: he is correct. Right now, refinery capacity is already strained 1586 01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:21,320 Speaker 1: max to the max, meaning that the supply crunch has 1587 01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:25,160 Speaker 1: nowhere else to go. Most of the reduction in the 1588 01:22:25,200 --> 01:22:28,639 Speaker 1: gas tax and thus the subsequent spike in demand would 1589 01:22:28,720 --> 01:22:32,120 Speaker 1: be pocketed by the oil companies. To the extent that 1590 01:22:32,200 --> 01:22:36,479 Speaker 1: consumers save anything, it would possibly be a few cents 1591 01:22:36,600 --> 01:22:39,840 Speaker 1: per gallon, which would then get erased by the subsequent 1592 01:22:39,960 --> 01:22:44,000 Speaker 1: increase in demand. This is the problem with nearly all 1593 01:22:44,080 --> 01:22:47,760 Speaker 1: Biden thinking on gas. And Okay, let's say none of 1594 01:22:47,800 --> 01:22:50,840 Speaker 1: what I'm saying happens and the price remains static. Here's 1595 01:22:50,880 --> 01:22:53,599 Speaker 1: how much it would save a gas tax holiday went 1596 01:22:53,640 --> 01:22:56,400 Speaker 1: into effect. You would save twenty dollars a month with 1597 01:22:56,400 --> 01:22:59,479 Speaker 1: a pickup truck eighteen with a full size SUV fifteen 1598 01:22:59,479 --> 01:23:02,200 Speaker 1: with the mid side SUV eleven with a full size 1599 01:23:02,200 --> 01:23:05,280 Speaker 1: Sedan and eight with the compact. I'm not gonna say 1600 01:23:05,400 --> 01:23:07,560 Speaker 1: that's nothing for the average person, but it is not 1601 01:23:07,760 --> 01:23:10,400 Speaker 1: meaningful enough compared to the two hundred dollars a month 1602 01:23:10,439 --> 01:23:12,760 Speaker 1: more and gas you're paying since Biden took office for 1603 01:23:12,800 --> 01:23:17,240 Speaker 1: that to be your signature proposal so far, that is ridiculous. 1604 01:23:17,520 --> 01:23:22,040 Speaker 1: Here's the truth. You cannot do a damn thing about 1605 01:23:22,040 --> 01:23:26,120 Speaker 1: this crisis until you deal with supply. Repealing the gas 1606 01:23:26,160 --> 01:23:29,320 Speaker 1: tax won't really do anything. His other proposed so called 1607 01:23:29,320 --> 01:23:32,719 Speaker 1: windfall tax on oil companies. Look, I'm fine with the idea, 1608 01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:35,360 Speaker 1: but again it misses the mark. If you take away 1609 01:23:35,400 --> 01:23:37,599 Speaker 1: the current profits of the oil and gas companies, then 1610 01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:40,080 Speaker 1: they're just going to have to cut costs, constraint supply, 1611 01:23:40,360 --> 01:23:43,200 Speaker 1: and other ways in order to pay back their investors 1612 01:23:43,240 --> 01:23:46,479 Speaker 1: who run the company. That would only further increase the 1613 01:23:46,560 --> 01:23:50,400 Speaker 1: price of gas. I understand these things might feel good, 1614 01:23:50,520 --> 01:23:53,839 Speaker 1: they might sound good to somebody who doesn't understand oil markets. 1615 01:23:53,880 --> 01:23:56,120 Speaker 1: But what I really cannot get over is how this 1616 01:23:56,240 --> 01:23:59,559 Speaker 1: is just another sign of Biden's malaise. He had a year, 1617 01:23:59,800 --> 01:24:02,960 Speaker 1: in entire year, to develop a plan on gas. This 1618 01:24:03,080 --> 01:24:05,240 Speaker 1: idiocy is the best that the man can come up with. 1619 01:24:05,520 --> 01:24:07,360 Speaker 1: And here's the thing is that just me saying this 1620 01:24:07,520 --> 01:24:09,719 Speaker 1: gas tax idea has been around for a long time. 1621 01:24:10,000 --> 01:24:13,439 Speaker 1: Listen to what a certain candidate Obama had to say 1622 01:24:13,479 --> 01:24:15,639 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, the last time this proposal 1623 01:24:15,680 --> 01:24:18,000 Speaker 1: was floated. I know that we're having a debate right 1624 01:24:18,040 --> 01:24:22,519 Speaker 1: now about the gas tax holiday. I know how brutal 1625 01:24:23,320 --> 01:24:26,599 Speaker 1: this is on folks right now, and I know they 1626 01:24:26,640 --> 01:24:29,000 Speaker 1: need relief, which is why I've offered a middle class 1627 01:24:29,080 --> 01:24:32,880 Speaker 1: tax cut for every American, one thousand dollars for working 1628 01:24:32,920 --> 01:24:36,559 Speaker 1: families so that they can deal not only with rising 1629 01:24:36,880 --> 01:24:40,839 Speaker 1: gas prices, but rising healthcare costs and rising grocery costs. 1630 01:24:41,600 --> 01:24:44,760 Speaker 1: But for us to suggest that thirty cents a day 1631 01:24:45,520 --> 01:24:49,840 Speaker 1: for three months is real relief, that that's a real 1632 01:24:49,960 --> 01:24:55,840 Speaker 1: energy policy, means that we are not tackling the problem 1633 01:24:55,880 --> 01:25:00,519 Speaker 1: that has to be tackled. We are offering gimmicks. It 1634 01:25:00,640 --> 01:25:03,080 Speaker 1: was right, It was right then. The fact that all 1635 01:25:03,080 --> 01:25:05,920 Speaker 1: Biden has left in his arsenal is political gimmicks. Per 1636 01:25:06,000 --> 01:25:09,040 Speaker 1: Obama is incredibly telling. I wish it was as easy 1637 01:25:09,080 --> 01:25:11,839 Speaker 1: as repealing the gas tax or an oil company winfall 1638 01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:15,320 Speaker 1: profit tax. It's not. It's actually very complicated. Somebody said 1639 01:25:15,360 --> 01:25:17,639 Speaker 1: once that the reason we elect presidents is because by 1640 01:25:17,640 --> 01:25:20,320 Speaker 1: the time a decision hits their desk, it doesn't have 1641 01:25:20,400 --> 01:25:23,280 Speaker 1: an easy answer. If it did, somebody below the chain 1642 01:25:23,280 --> 01:25:26,760 Speaker 1: of command would have answered it already. By definition, those 1643 01:25:26,840 --> 01:25:29,360 Speaker 1: problems which hit the desk of the president are ones 1644 01:25:29,400 --> 01:25:34,559 Speaker 1: which require thinking and ingenuity. Unfortunately, Biden is not rising 1645 01:25:34,600 --> 01:25:37,519 Speaker 1: to this moment like Jimmy Carter. It is only downhill 1646 01:25:37,520 --> 01:25:39,640 Speaker 1: from here. The only bad news is that when he 1647 01:25:39,680 --> 01:25:43,280 Speaker 1: goes a downhill, so do all of us. And yeah, look, 1648 01:25:43,320 --> 01:25:45,400 Speaker 1: I mean we're about to talk to Scoda Amara and 1649 01:25:45,439 --> 01:25:48,160 Speaker 1: if you want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue, 1650 01:25:48,200 --> 01:25:53,320 Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot Com joining 1651 01:25:53,400 --> 01:25:55,679 Speaker 1: us now is gone to Amarnath. He's welcoming back to 1652 01:25:55,720 --> 01:25:58,280 Speaker 1: the show. He's the executive director of Employe America. It's 1653 01:25:58,320 --> 01:26:00,880 Speaker 1: great to see you man, thanks for coming back, thanks 1654 01:26:00,880 --> 01:26:03,439 Speaker 1: for having met absolutely so. We talked to you three 1655 01:26:03,479 --> 01:26:05,360 Speaker 1: months ago about your plan in order to reduce the 1656 01:26:05,400 --> 01:26:08,080 Speaker 1: price of gas. Mainstream media appears to be catching up 1657 01:26:08,080 --> 01:26:10,640 Speaker 1: to this in light of Biden's decision to try and 1658 01:26:10,720 --> 01:26:13,639 Speaker 1: push a gas tax holiday. You spoke recently to Politico 1659 01:26:13,760 --> 01:26:16,559 Speaker 1: let's throw that tear sheet up there on the screen 1660 01:26:16,640 --> 01:26:19,479 Speaker 1: to break the glass moment on inflation. So, Skinda, I 1661 01:26:19,520 --> 01:26:22,160 Speaker 1: just borrowed heavily from your analysis and your work. But 1662 01:26:22,439 --> 01:26:25,400 Speaker 1: let's just give people who are checking in the case 1663 01:26:25,640 --> 01:26:29,040 Speaker 1: against a gas tax holiday and what some better options 1664 01:26:29,040 --> 01:26:32,680 Speaker 1: are that you've laid out here already. Yeah, So the 1665 01:26:32,720 --> 01:26:35,040 Speaker 1: case against the gas tax holiday has to do with 1666 01:26:35,120 --> 01:26:39,639 Speaker 1: the fact we have a real shortage of gasoline crude oil, 1667 01:26:39,920 --> 01:26:43,360 Speaker 1: and you can see this in the inventory data. Inventories 1668 01:26:43,360 --> 01:26:46,479 Speaker 1: are low, and so we have a real shortage, and 1669 01:26:46,640 --> 01:26:50,960 Speaker 1: we're going to reduce the gasoline tax, which is all 1670 01:26:51,000 --> 01:26:53,920 Speaker 1: things equal, a net subsidy for consumption. So we're trying 1671 01:26:53,960 --> 01:26:57,479 Speaker 1: to consume more when something is scarce. How's that going 1672 01:26:57,520 --> 01:26:59,800 Speaker 1: to work? How is that going to actually lead to 1673 01:27:00,600 --> 01:27:05,360 Speaker 1: addressing the underlying shortage? If you're not addressing the underlying shortage, 1674 01:27:05,360 --> 01:27:06,920 Speaker 1: how is that actually going to lead to lower prices 1675 01:27:06,920 --> 01:27:12,800 Speaker 1: over time? Especially in a category of consumption that's pretty elastic, 1676 01:27:12,840 --> 01:27:17,200 Speaker 1: it's not easy to sort of scale up demand or supply. 1677 01:27:17,640 --> 01:27:20,679 Speaker 1: So this is a if anything, it's a cross subsidy 1678 01:27:20,880 --> 01:27:23,599 Speaker 1: of oil and gas companies in a way. But it's 1679 01:27:23,640 --> 01:27:26,200 Speaker 1: really inefficient, and I would say there are much more 1680 01:27:26,200 --> 01:27:29,120 Speaker 1: efficient ways to address the underlying shortage. And what do 1681 01:27:29,160 --> 01:27:31,639 Speaker 1: you think will be the net economic effect of Biden 1682 01:27:31,720 --> 01:27:35,320 Speaker 1: asking the oil and gas companies to be patriots. That's 1683 01:27:35,320 --> 01:27:38,679 Speaker 1: a joke. It will be nothing. And the real question 1684 01:27:38,760 --> 01:27:42,000 Speaker 1: is states. Some states have tried this, they've tried the 1685 01:27:42,000 --> 01:27:45,720 Speaker 1: gas tax holiday. I understand the political appeal because you 1686 01:27:45,760 --> 01:27:47,760 Speaker 1: can sort of signaled to Pew is this popular? You 1687 01:27:47,760 --> 01:27:50,160 Speaker 1: can signal I'm doing something. I'm doing everything I can. 1688 01:27:50,680 --> 01:27:53,519 Speaker 1: What has been the benefit in the states that have 1689 01:27:53,600 --> 01:27:55,679 Speaker 1: tried it, or has there been a benefit to consumers 1690 01:27:55,720 --> 01:27:59,600 Speaker 1: at all? I think you for some frictional reasons, you 1691 01:27:59,600 --> 01:28:02,240 Speaker 1: can get a couple cents, a few cents on the dollar. 1692 01:28:03,080 --> 01:28:05,760 Speaker 1: That's really what you're talking about at most. And even 1693 01:28:05,800 --> 01:28:08,559 Speaker 1: then think about it as we have like an underlying 1694 01:28:08,560 --> 01:28:10,720 Speaker 1: shortage here. This is the leverage point in sort of 1695 01:28:10,760 --> 01:28:13,400 Speaker 1: the Russia Ukraine war right now in terms of what 1696 01:28:14,160 --> 01:28:16,559 Speaker 1: we're willing to sanction and not sanction, and so we're 1697 01:28:16,560 --> 01:28:20,200 Speaker 1: trying to subsidize consumption at this time. Is so, I mean, 1698 01:28:20,240 --> 01:28:23,040 Speaker 1: it's actually very tone deaf, But obviously I'm not one 1699 01:28:23,040 --> 01:28:24,880 Speaker 1: of these sort of political operators saying this is a 1700 01:28:24,920 --> 01:28:29,439 Speaker 1: smart political move here, but for subsidizing consumption when it's 1701 01:28:29,439 --> 01:28:32,160 Speaker 1: really scarce, that's going to also show up as demand 1702 01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:34,840 Speaker 1: will adjust up, and that's also going to show up 1703 01:28:34,880 --> 01:28:38,120 Speaker 1: and sort of prices will adjust accordingly. So whatever tax 1704 01:28:38,160 --> 01:28:40,880 Speaker 1: benefit you're getting in terms of the sticker shock is 1705 01:28:40,920 --> 01:28:43,920 Speaker 1: pretty thin. And we see it in Maryland and some 1706 01:28:43,960 --> 01:28:47,080 Speaker 1: other states. We saw actually that demand increased, but it 1707 01:28:47,080 --> 01:28:49,800 Speaker 1: didn't necessarily show up as like a big price price 1708 01:28:50,080 --> 01:28:54,240 Speaker 1: boon for Maryland motorists because they had a lower gas tax, 1709 01:28:54,720 --> 01:28:57,000 Speaker 1: right exactly. So I think this is very important again 1710 01:28:57,080 --> 01:28:59,559 Speaker 1: to just underscore to everybody who's listening, who might say, hey, 1711 01:28:59,640 --> 01:29:02,080 Speaker 1: that sounds like a good idea. Okay, so let's talk 1712 01:29:02,080 --> 01:29:04,800 Speaker 1: about what actually is a good idea. You've laid it 1713 01:29:04,840 --> 01:29:07,200 Speaker 1: out here in the show on the past. Again it 1714 01:29:07,240 --> 01:29:10,960 Speaker 1: is getting some pickup. So how exactly could the Biden 1715 01:29:11,000 --> 01:29:15,880 Speaker 1: administration significantly lower the price of gas by addressing the 1716 01:29:15,920 --> 01:29:20,520 Speaker 1: scarcity supply problem that we face. You've identified some executive 1717 01:29:20,520 --> 01:29:23,400 Speaker 1: actions which are totally within his legal authority. Lay out 1718 01:29:23,400 --> 01:29:26,519 Speaker 1: the case again. Sure, so if we look at the 1719 01:29:26,560 --> 01:29:29,080 Speaker 1: oil industry, there will complain about a lot of things 1720 01:29:29,080 --> 01:29:32,960 Speaker 1: that are withholding supply, some more legitimate, some less legitimate. 1721 01:29:33,000 --> 01:29:35,839 Speaker 1: Some things are annoying, but not the cause of the problem. 1722 01:29:36,160 --> 01:29:38,120 Speaker 1: The real cause, I would say, that's at the heart 1723 01:29:38,120 --> 01:29:40,599 Speaker 1: of it. For why industry doesn't want to invest more 1724 01:29:40,880 --> 01:29:43,160 Speaker 1: is that it has been a really cyclical sector. It's 1725 01:29:43,200 --> 01:29:45,960 Speaker 1: been super cyclical and volatile. The price of oil has 1726 01:29:46,000 --> 01:29:49,479 Speaker 1: really been boom bust for last eight years or so, 1727 01:29:50,160 --> 01:29:52,680 Speaker 1: starting in twenty fourteen in particular, and that's kind of 1728 01:29:52,680 --> 01:29:55,960 Speaker 1: a function of how US production has matured in a way, 1729 01:29:56,200 --> 01:29:59,840 Speaker 1: so we have the cracking shale attraction has really led 1730 01:29:59,840 --> 01:30:03,400 Speaker 1: to more cyclicality in a way that has led a 1731 01:30:03,439 --> 01:30:08,600 Speaker 1: lot of operators to be specially burned by that cyclicality. 1732 01:30:08,720 --> 01:30:10,760 Speaker 1: Why should I invest right now if I might get 1733 01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:15,000 Speaker 1: burned in twelve months eighteen months by market dynamics. That 1734 01:30:15,040 --> 01:30:17,759 Speaker 1: has led to a reluctance to invest. And that's precisely 1735 01:30:17,800 --> 01:30:19,960 Speaker 1: where the Biden administration could be doing. Two things that 1736 01:30:20,000 --> 01:30:23,679 Speaker 1: would be especially helpful for providing that kind of sort 1737 01:30:23,720 --> 01:30:27,200 Speaker 1: of insurance and it's called it financing certainty, that would 1738 01:30:27,240 --> 01:30:29,280 Speaker 1: be very helpful. So they could be doing things to 1739 01:30:29,880 --> 01:30:33,559 Speaker 1: use the SPR, refill the SPR in a crash, and 1740 01:30:33,600 --> 01:30:37,599 Speaker 1: you can do that by selling insurance to the industry 1741 01:30:37,840 --> 01:30:40,160 Speaker 1: so that if you raise your investment, we'll also be 1742 01:30:40,200 --> 01:30:44,839 Speaker 1: there to catch you if prices fall sufficiently. And likewise, 1743 01:30:44,880 --> 01:30:47,599 Speaker 1: they could be offering financing certainty because right now the sector, 1744 01:30:47,800 --> 01:30:50,280 Speaker 1: there's two parts of it. One is not everyone has 1745 01:30:50,280 --> 01:30:53,800 Speaker 1: access to financing and capital markets in terms of their 1746 01:30:53,840 --> 01:30:55,720 Speaker 1: ability to get at either bank loans or be able 1747 01:30:55,760 --> 01:30:59,519 Speaker 1: to issue bonds and under what conditions, So that's not 1748 01:30:59,680 --> 01:31:03,280 Speaker 1: totally Exxon is not the same as some of the 1749 01:31:03,479 --> 01:31:08,360 Speaker 1: smaller exploration production companies. But likewise, like if you're trying 1750 01:31:08,400 --> 01:31:11,240 Speaker 1: to change the willingness to invest, you do need to 1751 01:31:11,240 --> 01:31:15,439 Speaker 1: think about why these firms may be less than willing 1752 01:31:15,600 --> 01:31:19,280 Speaker 1: right now. So there's a famous sort of CEO, Scott Sheffield, 1753 01:31:19,280 --> 01:31:21,200 Speaker 1: who talked about even if oil prices go to two 1754 01:31:21,320 --> 01:31:25,720 Speaker 1: hundred dollars from the current one hundred dollars level, I 1755 01:31:25,720 --> 01:31:29,000 Speaker 1: wouldn't invest anymore because my shareholder's demand I stick to 1756 01:31:29,040 --> 01:31:30,800 Speaker 1: the plan, stick to the investment plan, stick to the 1757 01:31:30,840 --> 01:31:33,600 Speaker 1: production plan, which I kind of understand because if you 1758 01:31:33,600 --> 01:31:35,280 Speaker 1: look at their profitability over the last eight years, it 1759 01:31:35,360 --> 01:31:37,680 Speaker 1: was not very good. So they're they're trying to be 1760 01:31:37,720 --> 01:31:41,479 Speaker 1: really disciplined about not overinvesting, but socially, we need more 1761 01:31:41,479 --> 01:31:43,360 Speaker 1: investment if we're going to solve the supply side of 1762 01:31:43,400 --> 01:31:46,839 Speaker 1: this problem, at least, especially given the sort of lurking 1763 01:31:46,920 --> 01:31:50,959 Speaker 1: risks around Russia and when Russian production could really collapse seriously, 1764 01:31:51,520 --> 01:31:53,680 Speaker 1: which I'd say we haven't seen just yet, but it 1765 01:31:53,720 --> 01:31:56,639 Speaker 1: still lurks and everyone is sort of worried and concerned 1766 01:31:56,640 --> 01:32:01,439 Speaker 1: about that risk. How much has the wore Russias war 1767 01:32:01,479 --> 01:32:05,080 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. How much has that driven and notably our 1768 01:32:05,080 --> 01:32:08,679 Speaker 1: response to it as well domestically by banning Russian oil? 1769 01:32:09,080 --> 01:32:11,519 Speaker 1: How much has that driven the increase in price? Do 1770 01:32:11,600 --> 01:32:14,880 Speaker 1: you think? I think it's definitely a serious effect. We 1771 01:32:14,880 --> 01:32:18,840 Speaker 1: were coming into this invasion already with oil prices like 1772 01:32:18,880 --> 01:32:22,200 Speaker 1: trending close to ninety to one hundred bucks. But as 1773 01:32:22,520 --> 01:32:25,639 Speaker 1: the risks grew, you saw that saw crude oil prices 1774 01:32:25,680 --> 01:32:29,439 Speaker 1: be bit up in anticipation of this risk, and we 1775 01:32:29,479 --> 01:32:32,640 Speaker 1: saw it spike up as crude oil prices spike up 1776 01:32:32,640 --> 01:32:35,320 Speaker 1: when the invasion actually was on the cards. Right, So 1777 01:32:36,960 --> 01:32:39,920 Speaker 1: prices have some forward looking components of them. I'd say 1778 01:32:39,920 --> 01:32:44,400 Speaker 1: that because these risks emerge, everyone scrambles a little bit 1779 01:32:44,400 --> 01:32:46,439 Speaker 1: more to make sure they have enough supply to do 1780 01:32:46,479 --> 01:32:48,760 Speaker 1: the things they need to do with crude oil, with 1781 01:32:48,840 --> 01:32:52,120 Speaker 1: refined petroleum products, and that itself also leads to surge 1782 01:32:52,360 --> 01:32:56,240 Speaker 1: in prices. So I would say that crude oil markets 1783 01:32:56,280 --> 01:32:59,519 Speaker 1: are super smart all the time, but I would say that, 1784 01:32:59,600 --> 01:33:02,960 Speaker 1: like they're pretty like rationally incorporating a lot of these risks, 1785 01:33:04,080 --> 01:33:06,120 Speaker 1: and so that these are this has been a really 1786 01:33:06,160 --> 01:33:10,120 Speaker 1: important aspect of the inflationary picture. I don't think it's 1787 01:33:10,160 --> 01:33:11,320 Speaker 1: wrong to say that this is a big part of 1788 01:33:11,320 --> 01:33:13,439 Speaker 1: why pre oil prices as high as they are. It's 1789 01:33:13,520 --> 01:33:15,240 Speaker 1: kind of the other thing that I was wondering about 1790 01:33:15,439 --> 01:33:19,400 Speaker 1: is the price of a barrel of oil. The latest 1791 01:33:19,400 --> 01:33:21,639 Speaker 1: I think oil tumbles below one hundred and ten dollars 1792 01:33:21,680 --> 01:33:24,280 Speaker 1: as fears of recession intensifi. So the price of a 1793 01:33:24,320 --> 01:33:28,120 Speaker 1: barrel of oil is not astronomically high, and we've had 1794 01:33:28,160 --> 01:33:30,720 Speaker 1: a previous times in history, you know, similar prices per 1795 01:33:31,040 --> 01:33:35,240 Speaker 1: barrel of oil, but not nearly what consumers are seeing 1796 01:33:35,320 --> 01:33:39,280 Speaker 1: at the pump. So where does the disconnect there come in? Look, 1797 01:33:39,600 --> 01:33:42,720 Speaker 1: Russia is also really important for refining capacity globally, right, 1798 01:33:42,800 --> 01:33:45,759 Speaker 1: So we were in a situation where we were whittling 1799 01:33:45,760 --> 01:33:48,760 Speaker 1: down US refining capacity. Refineries typically don't make money in 1800 01:33:48,760 --> 01:33:51,720 Speaker 1: a given year or don't earn a great return. It's 1801 01:33:51,760 --> 01:33:54,720 Speaker 1: pretty tiny at best. It's not a great business to 1802 01:33:54,760 --> 01:33:56,680 Speaker 1: be in in most years. It's really only in like 1803 01:33:56,720 --> 01:33:59,720 Speaker 1: the sort of one or two years in a sort 1804 01:33:59,760 --> 01:34:01,880 Speaker 1: of a longer period when you'll make all of your 1805 01:34:01,880 --> 01:34:06,320 Speaker 1: money back. So US refiners were generally trying to wind 1806 01:34:06,360 --> 01:34:09,800 Speaker 1: down their capacity. There was if you looked at the 1807 01:34:09,800 --> 01:34:12,599 Speaker 1: global picture, there are a lot of countries and maybe 1808 01:34:12,600 --> 01:34:14,840 Speaker 1: sort of three to forty years from now that we're 1809 01:34:14,880 --> 01:34:17,320 Speaker 1: going to be building refineries. And so we had this 1810 01:34:17,360 --> 01:34:20,120 Speaker 1: period of time when like the picture is pretty fragile, 1811 01:34:20,280 --> 01:34:23,040 Speaker 1: and Russia coming offline, and China is also doing some 1812 01:34:23,080 --> 01:34:27,000 Speaker 1: things to kind of cramp their own refining capacity down 1813 01:34:27,080 --> 01:34:30,640 Speaker 1: somewhat tactically, and that is all that is all contributed to. 1814 01:34:31,600 --> 01:34:34,439 Speaker 1: There's a scarcity of refining capacity, and so that means 1815 01:34:34,479 --> 01:34:38,479 Speaker 1: refiners margins for refining crude oil into patroleum products is 1816 01:34:38,479 --> 01:34:40,360 Speaker 1: going to go up. There is like this is still 1817 01:34:40,360 --> 01:34:42,120 Speaker 1: a market. There are still a lot of needs for 1818 01:34:42,760 --> 01:34:47,160 Speaker 1: refined petroleum products. Obviously gasoline, diesel, jet fueled, then your 1819 01:34:47,360 --> 01:34:51,240 Speaker 1: petrochemical products, and so that's that's been the other scarcity issue. 1820 01:34:51,360 --> 01:34:54,960 Speaker 1: These two things are there. There are two scarcity issues 1821 01:34:55,000 --> 01:34:58,840 Speaker 1: that are related but also separable. So like we haven't 1822 01:34:58,840 --> 01:35:02,360 Speaker 1: really seen crude oil inventories build up to say that, okay, 1823 01:35:02,439 --> 01:35:06,439 Speaker 1: supply side is really coming back in a serious way. Likewise, 1824 01:35:06,479 --> 01:35:09,519 Speaker 1: we have really, especially for summer driving season, we haven't 1825 01:35:09,560 --> 01:35:13,200 Speaker 1: seen sort of high gasoline inventories. I think some of 1826 01:35:13,240 --> 01:35:15,800 Speaker 1: the refining margins have a chance to come down a 1827 01:35:15,800 --> 01:35:19,120 Speaker 1: little bit over time. Some of this was about refiners 1828 01:35:19,320 --> 01:35:23,519 Speaker 1: run seasonal maintenance now coming back, so there's some hope there, 1829 01:35:23,560 --> 01:35:25,400 Speaker 1: but we're probably not going back to the sort of 1830 01:35:25,400 --> 01:35:29,080 Speaker 1: refined low refining margins pre invasion, right. And I think 1831 01:35:29,120 --> 01:35:31,080 Speaker 1: one of the things I want to underscore is that 1832 01:35:31,680 --> 01:35:34,240 Speaker 1: everything you're laying out, given that the war is going 1833 01:35:34,320 --> 01:35:38,040 Speaker 1: to continue happening, given the inability of the plan without 1834 01:35:38,080 --> 01:35:41,320 Speaker 1: restoring some level of certainty and de risking the market, 1835 01:35:41,800 --> 01:35:44,960 Speaker 1: we are looking at these high gas prices for potentially 1836 01:35:45,320 --> 01:35:49,280 Speaker 1: years to come. And that gets us to the federal reserve, 1837 01:35:49,280 --> 01:35:50,760 Speaker 1: which I know that you've also spent a lot of 1838 01:35:50,760 --> 01:35:53,800 Speaker 1: time looking into. We played on our show earlier today, 1839 01:35:53,880 --> 01:35:57,479 Speaker 1: Skanda a clip of Elizabeth Warren speaking with Chairman Powell, 1840 01:35:57,800 --> 01:36:00,960 Speaker 1: where he said that increasing interest rates will have no 1841 01:36:01,080 --> 01:36:04,080 Speaker 1: effect on the price of gas and on the price 1842 01:36:04,120 --> 01:36:08,320 Speaker 1: of food, or at least in effect of lowering those prices. 1843 01:36:08,360 --> 01:36:10,719 Speaker 1: So can you speak to us about what it means 1844 01:36:10,760 --> 01:36:14,360 Speaker 1: for current FED policy in trying to address the most 1845 01:36:14,360 --> 01:36:18,720 Speaker 1: inflationary aspects of our economy right now? Right So, the 1846 01:36:18,760 --> 01:36:21,439 Speaker 1: FED has a really blunt tool, and that tool is 1847 01:36:21,760 --> 01:36:24,400 Speaker 1: interest rates, a specific type of interest rate that feeds 1848 01:36:24,439 --> 01:36:27,280 Speaker 1: into a lot of acid prices, and so it actually 1849 01:36:27,360 --> 01:36:30,720 Speaker 1: hits the propensity for businesses to want to invest or 1850 01:36:30,840 --> 01:36:35,840 Speaker 1: hire across sectors, whether those sectors are consumer discretionary or 1851 01:36:36,080 --> 01:36:39,480 Speaker 1: energy and food and a lot of these commodity specific 1852 01:36:39,520 --> 01:36:42,120 Speaker 1: sectors that are we actually need more supply and need 1853 01:36:42,160 --> 01:36:45,680 Speaker 1: more investment asap. And the Fed's actions. You could see 1854 01:36:45,720 --> 01:36:47,439 Speaker 1: it right now if you look at energy stocks. While 1855 01:36:47,439 --> 01:36:50,040 Speaker 1: they've had a pretty strong run, energy stock prices have 1856 01:36:50,080 --> 01:36:52,920 Speaker 1: actually taken quite a big hit in the last week 1857 01:36:53,040 --> 01:36:55,680 Speaker 1: or so, and that itself has been a function of 1858 01:36:55,920 --> 01:36:59,439 Speaker 1: FED policy. FED talking about how they're going to have 1859 01:36:59,479 --> 01:37:03,439 Speaker 1: to risk session to bring inflation down again. The FED 1860 01:37:03,439 --> 01:37:05,160 Speaker 1: controls interest rates. I think sometimes there's a lot of 1861 01:37:05,160 --> 01:37:08,320 Speaker 1: misguided views about what the FED actually controls and how 1862 01:37:08,400 --> 01:37:11,840 Speaker 1: much control they really have over inflation. They have one tool, really, 1863 01:37:11,880 --> 01:37:14,439 Speaker 1: and that tool is short term interest rates that can 1864 01:37:14,439 --> 01:37:16,200 Speaker 1: feed into a lot of different things, but it's going 1865 01:37:16,240 --> 01:37:18,160 Speaker 1: to feed in pretty bluntly. So I actually think it 1866 01:37:18,400 --> 01:37:21,479 Speaker 1: was a great question that Centator Warren asked, and I 1867 01:37:21,479 --> 01:37:23,680 Speaker 1: think I was sually surprisingly such a frank answer from 1868 01:37:23,760 --> 01:37:26,160 Speaker 1: share Powell, which is, we're actually not helping you here, 1869 01:37:26,880 --> 01:37:28,360 Speaker 1: and I don't expect us to be the ones to 1870 01:37:28,360 --> 01:37:31,240 Speaker 1: provide you the serious relief. The only real way they 1871 01:37:31,240 --> 01:37:33,679 Speaker 1: can provide the sort of decline in food and oil 1872 01:37:33,680 --> 01:37:37,439 Speaker 1: prices is like a horrible recession. So like see that 1873 01:37:37,479 --> 01:37:41,000 Speaker 1: with clear eyes. Yeah, no, that's exactly right. And there 1874 01:37:41,040 --> 01:37:44,320 Speaker 1: was a piece of this, so that part I understood, right. 1875 01:37:44,400 --> 01:37:46,320 Speaker 1: It was really clear to me that you know what 1876 01:37:46,360 --> 01:37:49,080 Speaker 1: the FED can do is they can hit the demand side, 1877 01:37:49,120 --> 01:37:51,720 Speaker 1: which means, you know, in layman's terms, you might lose 1878 01:37:51,760 --> 01:37:54,280 Speaker 1: your job, your wages are going to go down, You're 1879 01:37:54,320 --> 01:37:56,559 Speaker 1: going to have less money in your pocket to spend. 1880 01:37:56,960 --> 01:37:59,680 Speaker 1: That's hitting the demand side. And so I looked at 1881 01:37:59,680 --> 01:38:02,360 Speaker 1: this and most of the problems are these supply chain issues, 1882 01:38:02,400 --> 01:38:05,839 Speaker 1: So this is not even solving the problem, the primary 1883 01:38:05,840 --> 01:38:08,720 Speaker 1: problem that we have. But you make the case this 1884 01:38:08,800 --> 01:38:10,840 Speaker 1: part I hadn't thought of that not only are you 1885 01:38:10,880 --> 01:38:14,519 Speaker 1: not solving the issues on the supply side, you may 1886 01:38:14,560 --> 01:38:18,439 Speaker 1: actually be exacerbating them. Can you explain how that, how 1887 01:38:18,439 --> 01:38:22,680 Speaker 1: that works, and what that looks like. That's precisely right 1888 01:38:22,760 --> 01:38:26,519 Speaker 1: that actually FED actions don't just hurt the demand side. 1889 01:38:26,560 --> 01:38:29,479 Speaker 1: They hurt the supply side because they're hurting your willingness 1890 01:38:29,560 --> 01:38:32,240 Speaker 1: to invest, and you're inciting a lot more risk. Aversion 1891 01:38:32,320 --> 01:38:35,799 Speaker 1: about investment and capital planning. So if you think supply 1892 01:38:35,920 --> 01:38:38,080 Speaker 1: is a function of what you invested in, and how 1893 01:38:38,120 --> 01:38:41,040 Speaker 1: are you going to get future supply online will require investment. 1894 01:38:41,040 --> 01:38:43,240 Speaker 1: It's true in housing, it's true in oil and gas, 1895 01:38:43,360 --> 01:38:48,440 Speaker 1: it's true in automobiles. It's true in clean energy as well. Like, ultimately, 1896 01:38:48,840 --> 01:38:51,200 Speaker 1: my confidence that demand is going to be there in 1897 01:38:51,280 --> 01:38:54,839 Speaker 1: the future, that my financing costs and my future returns 1898 01:38:54,840 --> 01:38:56,960 Speaker 1: are actually going to check out right now, if you're 1899 01:38:56,960 --> 01:38:59,920 Speaker 1: in a capital intensive industry and you actually need financing, 1900 01:39:00,080 --> 01:39:02,400 Speaker 1: your costs are going up for financing. And at the 1901 01:39:02,400 --> 01:39:05,120 Speaker 1: same time, I'm more worried about recession and the fed's 1902 01:39:05,240 --> 01:39:07,320 Speaker 1: not really actually saving me in terms of saying this 1903 01:39:07,400 --> 01:39:09,720 Speaker 1: like the fat saying actually, yeah, there's a risk we're 1904 01:39:09,720 --> 01:39:11,120 Speaker 1: gonna have to go into recession if we're going to 1905 01:39:11,120 --> 01:39:15,040 Speaker 1: control inflation. That's something Jerry Pollia said pretty transparently yesterday. 1906 01:39:15,320 --> 01:39:17,720 Speaker 1: So if we keep that in mind, like we're like, 1907 01:39:17,760 --> 01:39:19,640 Speaker 1: what are we doing here, we were actually trying to 1908 01:39:19,680 --> 01:39:22,639 Speaker 1: we're making some problems worse. Housing starts have also started 1909 01:39:22,640 --> 01:39:25,320 Speaker 1: to decline. There have been big backlogs and supply chain 1910 01:39:25,360 --> 01:39:27,400 Speaker 1: issues in housing. But if part of the way we 1911 01:39:27,439 --> 01:39:29,679 Speaker 1: want to get out of this is having more housing 1912 01:39:29,720 --> 01:39:32,679 Speaker 1: and more housing supply catchup to demand, whether it's owned 1913 01:39:32,920 --> 01:39:37,120 Speaker 1: housing or rented housing, these are things that we need 1914 01:39:37,120 --> 01:39:39,800 Speaker 1: more investment today to be actually solved. And you're already 1915 01:39:39,800 --> 01:39:41,960 Speaker 1: seeing those effects play out. And I think for a 1916 01:39:41,960 --> 01:39:44,439 Speaker 1: lot of energy companies that have been burned time and 1917 01:39:44,479 --> 01:39:47,920 Speaker 1: time again, they're getting questions right now from their shareholders, 1918 01:39:48,160 --> 01:39:50,160 Speaker 1: are your capital plans actually going to be able to 1919 01:39:50,560 --> 01:39:53,439 Speaker 1: survive a recession because that's what the Fed's telling me 1920 01:39:53,560 --> 01:39:55,960 Speaker 1: might be might happen next Wow. So yeah, so it 1921 01:39:56,000 --> 01:39:58,599 Speaker 1: actually puts even more constraint on there because they want 1922 01:39:58,600 --> 01:40:00,920 Speaker 1: to reap even more of the benefit fits I mean 1923 01:40:01,000 --> 01:40:04,400 Speaker 1: everything you're saying, could we have a stagflation type scenario 1924 01:40:04,760 --> 01:40:07,960 Speaker 1: where we will have high inflation driven by supply side 1925 01:40:07,960 --> 01:40:12,240 Speaker 1: factors in addition to high unemployment given the Federal reserve? 1926 01:40:12,320 --> 01:40:14,200 Speaker 1: Do you think that that's possible? I mean, is that 1927 01:40:14,320 --> 01:40:17,600 Speaker 1: something that the FED would even explore? I mean the 1928 01:40:17,640 --> 01:40:20,640 Speaker 1: Fed's moving in that direction effectively. Like, so, inflation is 1929 01:40:20,640 --> 01:40:23,679 Speaker 1: a pretty complex beast, right, part of it is demand, 1930 01:40:23,840 --> 01:40:25,960 Speaker 1: part of it is supply. How much it is you 1931 01:40:25,960 --> 01:40:28,080 Speaker 1: can kind of always debate till the cows come home. 1932 01:40:28,120 --> 01:40:30,479 Speaker 1: But it's really not like the kind of thing that 1933 01:40:30,800 --> 01:40:35,120 Speaker 1: like is easy to control or easy to manage. And 1934 01:40:35,160 --> 01:40:38,000 Speaker 1: so inflation's high, but the feds tools are blunt. They 1935 01:40:38,000 --> 01:40:41,120 Speaker 1: can cram down investment and employment really rapidly, and so 1936 01:40:41,160 --> 01:40:43,360 Speaker 1: you can be left with Actually, I think it's again 1937 01:40:43,400 --> 01:40:45,439 Speaker 1: with Senator Warren said, is like the worst thing, the 1938 01:40:46,040 --> 01:40:48,639 Speaker 1: only thing worse than inflation is inflation plus recession, inflation 1939 01:40:48,680 --> 01:40:52,120 Speaker 1: plus high unemployment. And that's what the Fed's policies are 1940 01:40:52,120 --> 01:40:54,720 Speaker 1: moving in that direction. I wouldn't say that that's a fake, 1941 01:40:55,280 --> 01:40:58,080 Speaker 1: that's fate, like it's necessarily going to happen, but it's 1942 01:40:58,080 --> 01:41:00,400 Speaker 1: a huge risk of what the Fed's doing, And I 1943 01:41:00,400 --> 01:41:02,840 Speaker 1: would say for Congress in the White House, you should 1944 01:41:02,840 --> 01:41:05,639 Speaker 1: be thinking about everything you can be doing to help 1945 01:41:05,680 --> 01:41:09,280 Speaker 1: reduce inflation and help keep the business cycle stable. Make 1946 01:41:09,320 --> 01:41:12,719 Speaker 1: sure investments coming online, because look, monetary policy effects investment, 1947 01:41:12,800 --> 01:41:14,880 Speaker 1: but so do a whole lot of other things, So 1948 01:41:14,920 --> 01:41:16,960 Speaker 1: you could be doing things in your own power to 1949 01:41:17,040 --> 01:41:20,240 Speaker 1: be In certain cases does make sense to work with 1950 01:41:20,280 --> 01:41:22,400 Speaker 1: industry to make sure that they can make the investments 1951 01:41:22,439 --> 01:41:25,040 Speaker 1: needed to make their supply chains more resilient, or make 1952 01:41:25,320 --> 01:41:27,360 Speaker 1: the kinds of investments that actually allow them to scale 1953 01:41:27,439 --> 01:41:31,400 Speaker 1: up investment with the confidence that look recession or no recession, 1954 01:41:31,400 --> 01:41:33,479 Speaker 1: it makes sense to invest. That's the kind of thing 1955 01:41:33,520 --> 01:41:36,120 Speaker 1: that you should see from the White House. We haven't. 1956 01:41:37,479 --> 01:41:40,320 Speaker 1: I don't think we have instet and same for Congress too. 1957 01:41:40,600 --> 01:41:44,559 Speaker 1: Thank you, sir, Thanks Kanda, thank you absolutely, thank you 1958 01:41:44,560 --> 01:41:46,519 Speaker 1: guys so much for watching. We really appreciate it. As 1959 01:41:46,560 --> 01:41:50,400 Speaker 1: a reminder, premium subs, the tickets are on sale Atlanta 1960 01:41:50,680 --> 01:41:55,080 Speaker 1: Center Stage. We're coming as just for our own interest 1961 01:41:55,120 --> 01:41:56,760 Speaker 1: in yours. 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