Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, Single.
Speaker 2: Best Idea, the single best idea Today were really interesting
Speaker 2: conversations John Farrow with the former Vice President of the
Speaker 2: United States, mister Pence on his boss, mister Trump of
Speaker 2: a few years ago. In a lengthy conversation with the
Speaker 2: Mayor of New York that was just electric about the
Speaker 2: tensions of the nation, the tension of New York City
Speaker 2: with the Trump administration. We did look at the equity
Speaker 2: markets and the cross asset markets. Jeffrey U of B
Speaker 2: and Y really quite good visiting from London was Ender
Speaker 2: Sheets of Brown University and Morgan Stanley Ander Sheets on
Speaker 2: the moment at hand.
Speaker 3: I think what is challenging is that if we look
Speaker 3: at trying to quantify that question, can we come up
Speaker 3: with indicators to give us a better than average odds
Speaker 3: of thinking about short term direction. I think what you find,
Speaker 3: or what we found, is that those indicators work well
Speaker 3: or better under fear. Under extreme fear, you just your
Speaker 3: previous guests referred to kind of April second, you can
Speaker 3: find signals that work on average more often than not
Speaker 3: under extreme fear to give you short term buy signals.
Speaker 3: It is very hard we have been unsuccessful, much less
Speaker 3: successful to give you sell signals. It's much harder to
Speaker 3: call tops. It's much harder to find indicators that successfully
Speaker 3: do that.
Speaker 2: To link the mathematics of Wall Street in the moment,
Speaker 2: that was absolutely brilliant, folks. I can't say enough about
Speaker 2: how systems function and bets and probabilities function better with
Speaker 2: fear in the market. We're not there now, the Vicks
Speaker 2: under sixteen, it's just not there. And the answer is
Speaker 2: it's way harder to do the prediction game right now.
Speaker 2: Inder sheets of Morgan Stanley, Julian Emmanuel have evercore Isi
Speaker 2: looking at these equity markets that refuse to go down.
Speaker 4: None of them are out there at the moment, which
Speaker 4: is why again it's such a challenge here and why frankly,
Speaker 4: stocks have become as expensive as they are the rebound
Speaker 4: from that sentiment trough in April because we knew there
Speaker 4: wasn't going to be recession. We still don't think there's
Speaker 4: a recession. We do think that there's a slowdown that
Speaker 4: continues in the second half. The second is what we
Speaker 4: would call them uncooperative. Fed by uncooperative, we mean hiking. Look,
Speaker 4: they're not going to hike. There's no inflation reading we
Speaker 4: can see in the next several months, however high where
Speaker 4: they will hike. They may cut less, but they're not hiking.
Speaker 4: The third would be longer term yield spiking. Let's face it,
Speaker 4: the ten year yield, it's four thirty every day of
Speaker 4: the week for the last two years, and that's how
Speaker 4: it is. And that's a good thing, and that's part
Speaker 4: of why investors have had enough confidence to bid up stocks.
Speaker 4: And then the last one is the one that we
Speaker 4: think that eventually will end the bullmarket cycle, and that's
Speaker 4: a period of fomo and capital markets activity. Every single
Speaker 4: bullmarket has that in the late stages, and.
Speaker 2: We saw that again today with Kellogg's. We learned that
Speaker 2: John Tucker liked apple jacks as a child. I never
Speaker 2: liked you like it. I never liked ap you liked
Speaker 2: apple jacks. I never liked apple jacks. It was a
Speaker 2: tortured childhood. My sister liked tricks. I don't think Kellogg's.
Speaker 2: I don't think owns tricks. It is single best idea.
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening across the nation on Apple podcasts,
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Speaker 2: best I do