1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:15,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, Single.

2
00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,639
Speaker 2: Best Idea, the single best idea Today were really interesting

3
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,599
Speaker 2: conversations John Farrow with the former Vice President of the

4
00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,639
Speaker 2: United States, mister Pence on his boss, mister Trump of

5
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 2: a few years ago. In a lengthy conversation with the

6
00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,960
Speaker 2: Mayor of New York that was just electric about the

7
00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,120
Speaker 2: tensions of the nation, the tension of New York City

8
00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,879
Speaker 2: with the Trump administration. We did look at the equity

9
00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,479
Speaker 2: markets and the cross asset markets. Jeffrey U of B

10
00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:45,680
Speaker 2: and Y really quite good visiting from London was Ender

11
00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,280
Speaker 2: Sheets of Brown University and Morgan Stanley Ander Sheets on

12
00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:51,240
Speaker 2: the moment at hand.

13
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,880
Speaker 3: I think what is challenging is that if we look

14
00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,360
Speaker 3: at trying to quantify that question, can we come up

15
00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,800
Speaker 3: with indicators to give us a better than average odds

16
00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,680
Speaker 3: of thinking about short term direction. I think what you find,

17
00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,800
Speaker 3: or what we found, is that those indicators work well

18
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:11,160
Speaker 3: or better under fear. Under extreme fear, you just your

19
00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,039
Speaker 3: previous guests referred to kind of April second, you can

20
00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,080
Speaker 3: find signals that work on average more often than not

21
00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,200
Speaker 3: under extreme fear to give you short term buy signals.

22
00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,320
Speaker 3: It is very hard we have been unsuccessful, much less

23
00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,080
Speaker 3: successful to give you sell signals. It's much harder to

24
00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,199
Speaker 3: call tops. It's much harder to find indicators that successfully

25
00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 3: do that.

26
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,520
Speaker 2: To link the mathematics of Wall Street in the moment,

27
00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:40,199
Speaker 2: that was absolutely brilliant, folks. I can't say enough about

28
00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:45,960
Speaker 2: how systems function and bets and probabilities function better with

29
00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 2: fear in the market. We're not there now, the Vicks

30
00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,280
Speaker 2: under sixteen, it's just not there. And the answer is

31
00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,120
Speaker 2: it's way harder to do the prediction game right now.

32
00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:59,640
Speaker 2: Inder sheets of Morgan Stanley, Julian Emmanuel have evercore Isi

33
00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,360
Speaker 2: looking at these equity markets that refuse to go down.

34
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 4: None of them are out there at the moment, which

35
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:09,679
Speaker 4: is why again it's such a challenge here and why frankly,

36
00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,520
Speaker 4: stocks have become as expensive as they are the rebound

37
00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,399
Speaker 4: from that sentiment trough in April because we knew there

38
00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 4: wasn't going to be recession. We still don't think there's

39
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 4: a recession. We do think that there's a slowdown that

40
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,480
Speaker 4: continues in the second half. The second is what we

41
00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 4: would call them uncooperative. Fed by uncooperative, we mean hiking. Look,

42
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,000
Speaker 4: they're not going to hike. There's no inflation reading we

43
00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,840
Speaker 4: can see in the next several months, however high where

44
00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,120
Speaker 4: they will hike. They may cut less, but they're not hiking.

45
00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:46,320
Speaker 4: The third would be longer term yield spiking. Let's face it,

46
00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,120
Speaker 4: the ten year yield, it's four thirty every day of

47
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,480
Speaker 4: the week for the last two years, and that's how

48
00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,680
Speaker 4: it is. And that's a good thing, and that's part

49
00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,680
Speaker 4: of why investors have had enough confidence to bid up stocks.

50
00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:01,600
Speaker 4: And then the last one is the one that we

51
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,320
Speaker 4: think that eventually will end the bullmarket cycle, and that's

52
00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,760
Speaker 4: a period of fomo and capital markets activity. Every single

53
00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,600
Speaker 4: bullmarket has that in the late stages, and.

54
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,000
Speaker 2: We saw that again today with Kellogg's. We learned that

55
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,639
Speaker 2: John Tucker liked apple jacks as a child. I never

56
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,880
Speaker 2: liked you like it. I never liked ap you liked

57
00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 2: apple jacks. I never liked apple jacks. It was a

58
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:28,400
Speaker 2: tortured childhood. My sister liked tricks. I don't think Kellogg's.

59
00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 2: I don't think owns tricks. It is single best idea.

60
00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening across the nation on Apple podcasts,

61
00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,480
Speaker 2: Spotify as well and on YouTube podcasts. This is single

62
00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:41,280
Speaker 2: best I do