WEBVTT - Week 6 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 60) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.680 Hey everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Fantasy 0:00:16.840 --> 0:00:21.360 Pros No sorry, Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:24.480 Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.480 Hadi with me is Matt part You can find him 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:31.240 on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. What's going on? 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:32.960 So it's one of those days, right, We're just gonna 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:34.919 roll with it, like, just don't even worry, Like, right, 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:36.040 we can say whatever we want. 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:37.360 Yeah, yeah, you're good. 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:38.440 Just loose, no worries. 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:42.360 Yeah, isn't that every day? Are we not loose? Because 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:44.440 all I do is just talk nonsense? 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.160 Yeah, I hear. This is that time of the year, right. 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:49.440 The bags under my eyes will show you exactly what 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:52.320 I've been dealing with in terms of work and everything 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:54.120 else has been going on in the world right now. 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:56.800 But yeah, look, we had a good week last week. 0:00:56.840 --> 0:00:59.680 Let's let's do it again. We're slowly but surely climbing 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:02.360 up the these leader boards here with the DraftKings Picks contest. 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.920 Yeah, so let's go through it as we always do. 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.400 And again we are going to as we always do here, 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.560 get to every game on the slate because that is 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:12.800 what we do. But hopefully we will settle on our 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.160 five picks for the Draft Kings contest. I'm also going 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:16.800 to give you because the lines they come out and 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:19.640 they lock on Wednesday morning, I believe, is when they 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.280 come out for the DraftKings contest. So sometimes they're predicting, 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:24.480 as Matt has explained, where they think the line is 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:27.520 going to end up. But I'll also reference our betanalyzer 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:29.640 over at betting pros dot com, which really check out, 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.000 which basically has the contensus lines. You can also check 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:34.320 on my book and I'll let you know either against 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:36.720 the spread. We'll talk about maybe sprinkling some over unders 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:38.600 as well, even though they're not in the DraftKings contest 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:43.160 where the majority of experts are leaning. So I believe 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:46.080 we were what were we eight and said? No, we 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:51.840 were eleven and nine coming into last week, right. The 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:53.960 picks that we wound up going with were the Steelers 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.280 laying seven and a half to the Eagles chick which 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:58.760 we won and we knew about that. We went public 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:01.320 with the Panthers getting two and a half from the 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:05.320 Falcons didn't matter. We won. We went with the Colts 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.680 laying one and a half against the Browns, which we 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:10.720 sort of. You know, we talked about afterwards we weren't 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:12.160 sure we're going to do it, but we wound up 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:12.680 going with that. 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:14.360 Game in the forty nine Ers were the one games 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:17.160 that we because we had three that we knew and 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:18.560 we were good, and then we had two that we 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:20.520 kind of were wishy washy on and those two are 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:21.320 the ones we lost. 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:25.400 Yeah, so the forty nine ers laying eight and a half, 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:29.280 they almost almost covered against the Dolphins. They lost by 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.880 thirty six, I believe, but we did go after Matt 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:36.840 berated me on the podcast. This is what, by the way, 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:39.000 I love. I wish everybody could just have a private 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:42.160 view of like my messages with Matt, because literally I 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:44.359 was like, I kind of want the Vikings getting six 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:45.760 and a half from the Seahawks, and he was like, 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.840 you want to go against Russ in prime time with 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:53.160 Kirk Cousins. Are you crazy? And then legitimately I check 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:54.359 with him every Saturday night. I was like, you know 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.200 what I'm thinking about? I think I like the Viking 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:56.680 cause I was like. 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.519 Wait, well no, everything I liked the Vikings. I mean 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:02.400 I always preface is that like just because I think something, 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:05.119 I go and talk to people. I'm not someone who 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:07.320 thinks that I'm smarter than everybody else, and it's me 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:09.400 versus the world. I go and do research and I 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:11.840 ask those people behind the counter, and I normally run 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:13.720 our picks by them, and I say, okay, what do 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.600 you think? And the one that they said, we're uh 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.000 was Seattle, And I was like, you got to be 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:21.560 kidding me, And they're like, all the metrics, you would 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.320 think that it's Seattle, but that line's too heavy, and 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.680 lo and behold, Seahawks win. But the line was too heavy. 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.400 Yeah, that's what we knew. Don't doubt me. And of 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.760 course I have earned the right to whenever I want 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:36.000 pick a Jets game. As the Personal destroyed the Jets. 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:37.920 Now we'll see whether or not I think this is 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:40.400 a week worth taking, but I have unfettered authority. Now 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:42.880 after that game, we are in one hundred and seventy 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.320 ninth place out of six hundred eight nins. That's not 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:47.720 bad at all. Now we need a week, okay, we 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:49.800 need like the four and one or the five and 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:52.040 zero week to really get there. But so long as 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:55.760 we avoid any of these like really crushing weeks, because 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.800 it's it's a landline out there. We're going to keep 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.480 steadily moving up. We've gone from like two fiftieth and 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.120 over the last couple of weeks it's going three and two. 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:05.240 We moved up to one hundred and seventy nine, so 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:09.280 we are getting there. We are fourteen and eleven, so 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:11.400 that is solid, So let's keep it going. 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.960 Are we really well, we're three games or five hundred now? 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:16.839 Okay, yeah, we're at fifty six percent. Yeah, we're fourteen 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:17.320 and eleven. 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:20.240 Now. In most years, the winning you have to be 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.440 around In the beginning part of the of the Westgate 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:26.560 Super Contest, if you scored anywhere above sixty five percent, 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:30.040 you normally were in the money. This now because it's 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:33.240 been so crazy, now you need to be somewhere in 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:36.400 the neighborhood of seventy two seventy three percent to win. 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:39.800 But given the number of people in our contest, I 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.159 would say that sixty percent is going to be pretty decent. 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.120 So if we keep if we move up a little 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:45.960 bit and get around sixty percent, I think we're going 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.599 to be pretty good here across the entire season. 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:53.279 So right now, the payoff structure cuts at sixty five percent, 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.480 So if you're sixty five percent right now, you'd be catching. 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.560 But what's fascinating, Matt, is so almost everyone who has 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.440 cashed this, This is actually fascinating. Almost everyone who was 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.320 cashed has used at least one of their bye weeks. Wow, 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.440 like already yet a reminder in the DraftKings contest to 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:11.880 get two by weeks okay of the sixteen weeks, so 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:13.800 it only goes through week sixteen. You can take two 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.479 weeks off, and Matt and I've kind of been saving them. 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.720 I've been a little more willing to use them if 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:20.440 I thought, you know, we didn't use it last week, 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:22.039 which is good because we went through and two. But 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:23.880 the vast majority, I mean, you've got guys, who are 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:25.960 you know, thirteen to twenty, You've got some of you's 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:28.640 two they're ten out of fifteen and they're cashing right now, 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:29.239 so they're stuck. 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:31.640 They must have forgot. The only way I could see 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.480 you using two different weeks is like you just forgot 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.120 to enter in you something got coming caught up with 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:40.360 you or something, because yeah, why would you use both 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:44.520 knowing what potentially is coming in November and December? 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.200 Yeah? I know, I know, I don't get it. But 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:49.720 I would say, because. 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.680 Hel phone would be to be leading the contest and 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:54.120 just sit on it, yeah, and just say sure, you guys, 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:55.520 come catch us. Like it would be not that we're 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:56.880 going to be in first place, but if you were 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:58.719 to have a free bye week, to have a bye 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:00.559 week off and be like, you guys, come get us. 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:06.120 Yeah, I like it all right. Well, anyway, I would say, 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:09.600 of the people who are cashing right now, at least 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:11.080 eighty percent have used one by week. 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:12.360 Wow, So good, okay. 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:15.400 Interesting, all right, So anyway, everybody is fascinated with the 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:17.719 whole story of the DraftKings Championship, of course, but let's 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:19.440 get into this week's games. That's what we're doing here. 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.680 A couple of reminders. One, no prop bets I failed 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:24.920 last week. I usually get Matt a couple of prop 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:28.200 bets the night before. I am on a well. My 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:30.480 house is on a well. That's where we draw water 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:33.279 and are well ran dry. And when you have yes 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.440 corrupt turn out in New Hampshire. 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:40.120 So I know that my brothers nor getting former and 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:41.560 Western mass he's praying for rain. 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.039 Yeah, that's how it is. And so when you have 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.800 a family of four and a stressed out wife and 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.200 two kids, and you can't flush toilets and you can't 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:51.719 take showers. Things like that get in the way. I 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.840 will not fail you again. My well runs dry. I 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.520 will still have three props waiting, I promise, and if 0:06:57.520 --> 0:06:59.840 you want those props. Matt obviously should be listening to 0:06:59.880 --> 0:07:03.440 the Baalley Juice podcast, my favorite podcast other than this one, 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.680 where he gives every day fifteen minutes in the morning, 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.640 he gives out his best bets and he will give props. 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:12.840 In addition, Sunday mornings eleven am to twelve pm on 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:15.560 the Betting Pros YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Stunning Pros, 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.320 Matt does an our live stream. I provided my props there. 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:19.800 He's going to lay in there, so make sure you 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:22.960 subscribe and tune into that. In the meantime, let's do 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.560 what we always do, Matt. You get your first choice 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:28.400 any game you want. Let me know what your top 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:29.840 pick is on the slate. 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:32.320 Do I need to describe what? Do I need to 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:32.640 say it? 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.040 Yeah? You need to say it. I don't know what 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:35.280 it is? 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:35.760 Yes you do? 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:37.960 No, I don't what is it? 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:38.680 Yes? You do? You know? 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:39.720 What is? All right? Hold on? 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:40.080 Oh? 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:42.040 Well, I got it. I'm sorry, I do know exactly 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:45.720 what it is. What it is, insert team playing the 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:47.440 Buffalo bit is that right? 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:49.720 And they just happen to be playing the best team 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:50.200 in football. 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:53.960 Okay, the Chiefs are laying three and a half to 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:56.480 the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, and this is now on 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:58.760 Monday Night. I believe did this? 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:00.720 This is supposed to be the name Thurday Night Monday 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:01.640 Night game? Correct? Yep? 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:05.200 Okay, all right, Matt, make your case as to why 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:06.560 you do. I mean, you're just a little. 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:10.160 Bill's defense is absolute trash. And even if White comes 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:11.680 back in places which he looks like he's. 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:12.440 Going to, he does. 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:15.720 Yes, they can't stop any one. And this is a 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:19.120 pissed off team who is really angry about losing to 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:22.040 the Raiders. And you've got a team that I think 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.200 is going to come up and put a number. I'm 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.160 gonna put it at forty. The Chiefs will score forty 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.440 on the Buffalo Bills coming up on Monday Night. 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:33.959 Yeah, okay, I have this one on my list, so 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.600 I'm pretty sure that this will be one that we 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:38.920 will go with. And I'm never gonna run away from 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:42.440 backing Patrick Mahomes under any circumstances. I do not despise 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:44.120 the Bills as Matt that. I mean, I can't imagine 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:45.319 how happy you were on Tuesday night. 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:48.480 Because it's funny because people dn me from the Daily 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:50.440 Juice audience and they were like, why didn't you rub 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.240 it in more that Josh Allen threw two picks and 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.240 looked horrible, Like you said he was going to one 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:55.600 of those. 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:57.920 One of those obviously was not in any way his 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.360 fault that bounced off, but still he threw two picks going. 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:02.400 Through two picks, and the pick that he threw to 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.160 Martin Malcolm Butler was pathetic. 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:06.320 Well, he threw two to Malcolm Butler. 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:08.199 Yeah, but for the second one was a real bad one. 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:09.280 The first one was a deflection. 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:10.640 The first one was a deflection. 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:12.360 That one wasn't his fault, yeah, the second one was 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:15.360 one hundred percent of his fault. And I just I 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.160 don't need to take a victory lap on it because 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.160 it's just like, yeah, this is who this team is. 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.080 I mean, this is this is a regression coming. And 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.880 I'm telling you on November the first, when the Patriots 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:27.040 play against the Bills, that game will be for first 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.600 place in the division, and everybody thought it was over. 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:31.720 Bills are gonna run away with it. Oh my gosh. 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:35.120 They were breathlessly talking up an MVP candidacy for Josh Allen. 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:38.320 No Chiefs all right, late three and a half. 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.040 So I am also in on this there are You know. 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:43.480 I do not feel the same way about the Bills 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:45.520 that Matt does, and I do think there's a chance 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.360 they're going to be a little angry here. They were 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:51.720 pretty embarrassed on national television, essentially by the Titans. They 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:53.959 are getting healthier. John Brown has even looks like I 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.160 think he practiced fully today, so he'll probably play. That 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:59.320 does do a benefit. But again, the Chiefs coming off 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.520 the loss in particular is really what They're gonna. 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:04.880 Be great, and they should have lost to the Patriots. Yeah, 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:06.760 if Cam Note plays in that game. They're coming off 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.400 two losses. They've been they're trending in the wrong direction, 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.199 So that's why I like them to bounce back. 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.080 Now. They're gonna be down Sammy Watkins in this game, 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:16.400 not that big deal because Migel Hardman is very good 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:19.000 and he will play. I think they're gonna look to 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:21.080 get back on track here, So I'm not scared off 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:22.960 by the three and a half. It is in Buffalo, 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.080 but there are no fans and it's not cold yet, 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.320 so I don't think the home field advantage matters that 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:30.400 much other than the familiarity. And again, not a hugely 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.280 short week because it's a Monday night game, but they 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:34.960 it is a short week for the Bills since they 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:38.240 played Tuesday. The line, the consensus line on betting bros 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:40.680 Like Combatech and Jack, has moved to minus four, so 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:42.600 it is trending in the direction that we are thinking. 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.320 And sixty eight percent of the consensus of experts against 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:49.240 the spread are favoring the Chiefs, so we are not alone. 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:51.800 And I'm fine. Basically, I'll put that one in pen 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.599 because I'm I'm good to go. Though. Okay, let me 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.560 know how you feel about this one, Matt, because I 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.520 don't love that many games this week, but I do 0:10:59.880 --> 0:11:01.960 like a few, and the Chiefs and the Bills were 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.280 one of them. I know it's a divisional game, which 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:06.920 usually scares me off, but I think in this game 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:09.880 there are a lot of warning signs for the Browns 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.040 who are flying high, and I kind of like the 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:15.560 Steelers laying three and a half. Here's my case number one, 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.560 obij I don't want to speculate because we don't know, 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.520 but he left today with an illness. I guess he 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:23.560 hasn't gotten his test pack unless I've missed it. Twitter 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:25.280 is down by the way as we record this, or 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:26.439 at least it was, so I don't know if he 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:29.520 got that. Jarvis Landry also backed up, has missed practiced. 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.680 When I hear Baker Mayfield is trending in the right 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:36.719 direction to play, like the Ribs are bothering him, that 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:39.640 the Steelers defense is gonna I know the Browns have 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:42.480 a good offensive line, but they get a ton of pressure. 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:44.880 I think they're gonna batter and bruise him, and I 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:46.680 think they're gonna do a lot of stuff. Meanwhile, the 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.800 Steelers Deanthony Johnson is practicing, so he's probably gonna play. 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.120 They found their gem and Chase Claypool. Hopefully they know 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.000 how to get involved. This is just a better team. 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:57.880 And I don't love Mike Tomlin like backing him under 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:00.480 any of these circumstances, but I do just think right now, 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:04.120 given that Mayfield is banged up, given that OBJ potentially 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:08.000 won't play, given that Landry is banged up. Given that 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.440 again they're down Nick Chubb and I know Kareem Hunt 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:12.440 looks great, but it is a loss. So for me 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:14.880 divisional game, I get it, but I'm still willing to 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:16.679 take That's my number one pick, the Steelers. I think 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:17.640 three and a half to the Browns. 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:18.680 It's my number two pick. 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.360 Yes, yes, okay, this is. 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.120 We don't need to do very much with it. It's 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:25.720 my number two pick in the week. And I often 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:27.760 whenever I talk Steelers, I go talk to Dave Shriff, 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.280 pais from Pittsburgh, yep. And the number I think he 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:33.040 told me is Cleveland has won one time in their 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:34.120 last twenty. 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:35.720 In Pittsburgh yep. 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:39.440 So yeah, I feel pretty good about taking the Pittsburgh Steelers. 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.480 But three out of the spread is the consensus spread 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:44.520 on betting process. Again, I'm looking at the bed analyzer, 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:45.960 which is a really cool tool because you can look 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:48.400 at the varies different you know how it is over 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.000 under on the money line, and just where people are 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:51.959 coming out and where it's moving. It is still at 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.319 three and a half and sixty seven percent around the 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:56.440 Steelers and the consensus, by the way, just so you know, 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:58.840 it's not an overwhelming thing that just like, well, we 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.120 like the favorites at all. That's not the way it works. 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:03.000 I mean, people are putting in you know a lot 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.040 of times you see value in the underdogs. But right 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:07.600 now both our picks have essentially two thirds of the 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:11.360 people who are making picks on vettingpros dot com along 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.280 with us. I feel good about it. Okay, I feel 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:16.040 good about too. Let's get some dissension, Matt, who's your 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:16.560 number three? 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.160 All right? I don't know if it's gonna be dissension 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.760 or not, but I look at this Green Bay team 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.839 and I'm really, I really like what I'm seeing out 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.840 of this offense. I love the balance. I think lafloor 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:35.720 and I thought there was some potential for Aaron Rodgers 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:38.040 and Matt Lafleur to hate each other this year. I 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.160 thought the drafting of Jordan Love was going to drive 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:43.319 a wedge in this locker room, and it's been the opposite. 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:46.040 No one's even talking about this kid. Now. They blew 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:47.839 a first round pick on a quarterback. Never should have 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.720 done that. But they're getting healthy. This defense for the 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:53.240 Bucks is decent, but I just I'm a little concerned 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.480 about what this offense is looking like for the Bucks. 0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:57.560 I mean, I thought Gronk was going to be a 0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.640 really big weapon in the red zone. He's been exult 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.720 He's been literally invisible in the red zone. I think 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:04.800 the running game is okay, but they're very banged up 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.440 still in with their running back depth. I think their 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.480 offensive line is okay but not great. Brede's getting hit, 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:12.840 and I think this Packer's defense is a little bit 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.960 sneaky here. I like Green Bay. The number has moved 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.920 quite a bit in favor, I think towards the Tampa 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.520 Bay Bucks, which is really kind of interesting, and I'm 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:24.120 kind of confused by the line movement. I like green 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:25.800 Bay minus two and a half here on the road 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:26.600 under a field goal. 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:31.320 So what is interesting is that the Bucks are getting 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.480 two and a half points. You said it's moved towards 0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:36.000 the Bucks. The consensus line is actually only the Bucks 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.680 plus one. Okay at the moment, right, So that's basically 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.080 where you were going with it. I'm not sure. I 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.120 don't have a good feel for this game. That's basically 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:48.720 what I'm going to say here the Packers. Okay, first 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:50.520 of all, I like how delicate you were being in 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.160 describing you know what this looked like coming into the 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.880 season for the Packers. Yeah, it looked like a disaster. 0:14:55.960 --> 0:15:00.440 They basically ignored Rogers coming in whatsoever into the draft. However, 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:04.280 they are playing extremely well. But they've beaten the Vikings 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:07.320 when the Vikings didn't have a secondary to know what 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.840 they were doing, the Lions, the Falcons, and the Saints, 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:11.400 which I'll give him the Saints, you know that was 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:15.840 a good win. I when you first messaged me with 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:18.080 this game, I thought you were taking the Bucks side 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:19.760 of it. Is that true? By the way I was, 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:21.720 and you got talked out of it. 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.160 No. I went and read a couple of different stories 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:25.800 and looked at a couple of different lines, and then 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:27.760 talked to a friend of mine from Pro Football Focus, 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:32.280 and they're very concerned about the Bucks offense. Okay, that 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:34.680 they have very low grades on a lot of a 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:38.280 lot of the players. Injuries or no injuries. No, Godwin 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:41.360 being out is significant. Evan's not being healthy is significant. 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:44.280 I think Godwin may play, that's the thing. He returned 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:44.760 to practice. 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:46.760 If he plays it, okay, but he's still not. Him 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:48.920 and Brady are still not on the same page. And 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.560 I'm still concerned about I mean, O. J. Howard's gone 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:53.840 for the year, Gronk has been I mean, not a 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.160 part of this offense at all, And I'm just I'm 0:15:57.200 --> 0:16:00.560 concerned about this offense for Tampa. And I think I 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:02.560 think that the Bucks are going to score, are gonna 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.360 give up thirty here to the Packers. So I mean, 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:06.720 Demante Adams coming back. 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:09.600 Yeah, Adams is coming back, and and Vi Devea is 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:11.400 you know, that's a big loss them. 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:13.440 And you got Aaron Jones running the football, and their 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.520 best run stopping defensive lineman is not playing. 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.680 They're run their defense is so good. I think this 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:20.640 is one where I'm probably I think I'm on the 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.040 other side, so I think i'd probably stay away from it. 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:24.840 I don't love like, it wasn't one of my top 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.760 choices to be like give me the Bucks or anything 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.800 like that. Also, I get it they should have won that. 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:31.840 I mean, I realized they lost to the Bears, but 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.640 they should have won that game pretty easily, despite the 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.040 fact that they nobody a wide receiver, even you know, 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.640 Evans was banged up. I think an angry Brady if 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:42.680 he gets Godwin back. You know, I don't know, I 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:44.880 don't want to bet against them in Taba, so I 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.480 think that's a stay away from me. But that's fine. 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:50.400 You're not gonna like this game. I can guarantee that 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.840 I like the Bears getting two and a half from 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:58.240