Speaker 1: Hey everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Pros No sorry, Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Hadi with me is Matt part You can find him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt Matt. What's going on?
Speaker 2: So it's one of those days, right, We're just gonna
Speaker 2: roll with it, like, just don't even worry, Like, right,
Speaker 2: we can say whatever we want.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you're good.
Speaker 2: Just loose, no worries.
Speaker 1: Yeah, isn't that every day? Are we not loose? Because
Speaker 1: all I do is just talk nonsense?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hear. This is that time of the year, right.
Speaker 2: The bags under my eyes will show you exactly what
Speaker 2: I've been dealing with in terms of work and everything
Speaker 2: else has been going on in the world right now.
Speaker 2: But yeah, look, we had a good week last week.
Speaker 2: Let's let's do it again. We're slowly but surely climbing
Speaker 2: up the these leader boards here with the DraftKings Picks contest.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's go through it as we always do.
Speaker 1: And again we are going to as we always do here,
Speaker 1: get to every game on the slate because that is
Speaker 1: what we do. But hopefully we will settle on our
Speaker 1: five picks for the Draft Kings contest. I'm also going
Speaker 1: to give you because the lines they come out and
Speaker 1: they lock on Wednesday morning, I believe, is when they
Speaker 1: come out for the DraftKings contest. So sometimes they're predicting,
Speaker 1: as Matt has explained, where they think the line is
Speaker 1: going to end up. But I'll also reference our betanalyzer
Speaker 1: over at betting pros dot com, which really check out,
Speaker 1: which basically has the contensus lines. You can also check
Speaker 1: on my book and I'll let you know either against
Speaker 1: the spread. We'll talk about maybe sprinkling some over unders
Speaker 1: as well, even though they're not in the DraftKings contest
Speaker 1: where the majority of experts are leaning. So I believe
Speaker 1: we were what were we eight and said? No, we
Speaker 1: were eleven and nine coming into last week, right. The
Speaker 1: picks that we wound up going with were the Steelers
Speaker 1: laying seven and a half to the Eagles chick which
Speaker 1: we won and we knew about that. We went public
Speaker 1: with the Panthers getting two and a half from the
Speaker 1: Falcons didn't matter. We won. We went with the Colts
Speaker 1: laying one and a half against the Browns, which we
Speaker 1: sort of. You know, we talked about afterwards we weren't
Speaker 1: sure we're going to do it, but we wound up
Speaker 1: going with that.
Speaker 2: Game in the forty nine Ers were the one games
Speaker 2: that we because we had three that we knew and
Speaker 2: we were good, and then we had two that we
Speaker 2: kind of were wishy washy on and those two are
Speaker 2: the ones we lost.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so the forty nine ers laying eight and a half,
Speaker 1: they almost almost covered against the Dolphins. They lost by
Speaker 1: thirty six, I believe, but we did go after Matt
Speaker 1: berated me on the podcast. This is what, by the way,
Speaker 1: I love. I wish everybody could just have a private
Speaker 1: view of like my messages with Matt, because literally I
Speaker 1: was like, I kind of want the Vikings getting six
Speaker 1: and a half from the Seahawks, and he was like,
Speaker 1: you want to go against Russ in prime time with
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. Are you crazy? And then legitimately I check
Speaker 1: with him every Saturday night. I was like, you know
Speaker 1: what I'm thinking about? I think I like the Viking
Speaker 1: cause I was like.
Speaker 2: Wait, well no, everything I liked the Vikings. I mean
Speaker 2: I always preface is that like just because I think something,
Speaker 2: I go and talk to people. I'm not someone who
Speaker 2: thinks that I'm smarter than everybody else, and it's me
Speaker 2: versus the world. I go and do research and I
Speaker 2: ask those people behind the counter, and I normally run
Speaker 2: our picks by them, and I say, okay, what do
Speaker 2: you think? And the one that they said, we're uh
Speaker 2: was Seattle, And I was like, you got to be
Speaker 2: kidding me, And they're like, all the metrics, you would
Speaker 2: think that it's Seattle, but that line's too heavy, and
Speaker 2: lo and behold, Seahawks win. But the line was too heavy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what we knew. Don't doubt me. And of
Speaker 1: course I have earned the right to whenever I want
Speaker 1: pick a Jets game. As the Personal destroyed the Jets.
Speaker 1: Now we'll see whether or not I think this is
Speaker 1: a week worth taking, but I have unfettered authority. Now
Speaker 1: after that game, we are in one hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: ninth place out of six hundred eight nins. That's not
Speaker 1: bad at all. Now we need a week, okay, we
Speaker 1: need like the four and one or the five and
Speaker 1: zero week to really get there. But so long as
Speaker 1: we avoid any of these like really crushing weeks, because
Speaker 1: it's it's a landline out there. We're going to keep
Speaker 1: steadily moving up. We've gone from like two fiftieth and
Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks it's going three and two.
Speaker 1: We moved up to one hundred and seventy nine, so
Speaker 1: we are getting there. We are fourteen and eleven, so
Speaker 1: that is solid, So let's keep it going.
Speaker 2: Are we really well, we're three games or five hundred now?
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, we're at fifty six percent. Yeah, we're fourteen
Speaker 1: and eleven.
Speaker 2: Now. In most years, the winning you have to be
Speaker 2: around In the beginning part of the of the Westgate
Speaker 2: Super Contest, if you scored anywhere above sixty five percent,
Speaker 2: you normally were in the money. This now because it's
Speaker 2: been so crazy, now you need to be somewhere in
Speaker 2: the neighborhood of seventy two seventy three percent to win.
Speaker 2: But given the number of people in our contest, I
Speaker 2: would say that sixty percent is going to be pretty decent.
Speaker 2: So if we keep if we move up a little
Speaker 2: bit and get around sixty percent, I think we're going
Speaker 2: to be pretty good here across the entire season.
Speaker 1: So right now, the payoff structure cuts at sixty five percent,
Speaker 1: So if you're sixty five percent right now, you'd be catching.
Speaker 1: But what's fascinating, Matt, is so almost everyone who has
Speaker 1: cashed this, This is actually fascinating. Almost everyone who was
Speaker 1: cashed has used at least one of their bye weeks. Wow,
Speaker 1: like already yet a reminder in the DraftKings contest to
Speaker 1: get two by weeks okay of the sixteen weeks, so
Speaker 1: it only goes through week sixteen. You can take two
Speaker 1: weeks off, and Matt and I've kind of been saving them.
Speaker 1: I've been a little more willing to use them if
Speaker 1: I thought, you know, we didn't use it last week,
Speaker 1: which is good because we went through and two. But
Speaker 1: the vast majority, I mean, you've got guys, who are
Speaker 1: you know, thirteen to twenty, You've got some of you's
Speaker 1: two they're ten out of fifteen and they're cashing right now,
Speaker 1: so they're stuck.
Speaker 2: They must have forgot. The only way I could see
Speaker 2: you using two different weeks is like you just forgot
Speaker 2: to enter in you something got coming caught up with
Speaker 2: you or something, because yeah, why would you use both
Speaker 2: knowing what potentially is coming in November and December?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I know, I know, I don't get it. But
Speaker 1: I would say, because.
Speaker 2: Hel phone would be to be leading the contest and
Speaker 2: just sit on it, yeah, and just say sure, you guys,
Speaker 2: come catch us. Like it would be not that we're
Speaker 2: going to be in first place, but if you were
Speaker 2: to have a free bye week, to have a bye
Speaker 2: week off and be like, you guys, come get us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it all right. Well, anyway, I would say,
Speaker 1: of the people who are cashing right now, at least
Speaker 1: eighty percent have used one by week.
Speaker 2: Wow, So good, okay.
Speaker 1: Interesting, all right, So anyway, everybody is fascinated with the
Speaker 1: whole story of the DraftKings Championship, of course, but let's
Speaker 1: get into this week's games. That's what we're doing here.
Speaker 1: A couple of reminders. One, no prop bets I failed
Speaker 1: last week. I usually get Matt a couple of prop
Speaker 1: bets the night before. I am on a well. My
Speaker 1: house is on a well. That's where we draw water
Speaker 1: and are well ran dry. And when you have yes
Speaker 1: corrupt turn out in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: So I know that my brothers nor getting former and
Speaker 2: Western mass he's praying for rain.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how it is. And so when you have
Speaker 1: a family of four and a stressed out wife and
Speaker 1: two kids, and you can't flush toilets and you can't
Speaker 1: take showers. Things like that get in the way. I
Speaker 1: will not fail you again. My well runs dry. I
Speaker 1: will still have three props waiting, I promise, and if
Speaker 1: you want those props. Matt obviously should be listening to
Speaker 1: the Baalley Juice podcast, my favorite podcast other than this one,
Speaker 1: where he gives every day fifteen minutes in the morning,
Speaker 1: he gives out his best bets and he will give props.
Speaker 1: In addition, Sunday mornings eleven am to twelve pm on
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Stunning Pros,
Speaker 1: Matt does an our live stream. I provided my props there.
Speaker 1: He's going to lay in there, so make sure you
Speaker 1: subscribe and tune into that. In the meantime, let's do
Speaker 1: what we always do, Matt. You get your first choice
Speaker 1: any game you want. Let me know what your top
Speaker 1: pick is on the slate.
Speaker 2: Do I need to describe what? Do I need to
Speaker 2: say it?
Speaker 1: Yeah? You need to say it. I don't know what
Speaker 1: it is?
Speaker 2: Yes you do?
Speaker 1: No, I don't what is it?
Speaker 2: Yes? You do? You know?
Speaker 1: What is? All right? Hold on?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: Well, I got it. I'm sorry, I do know exactly
Speaker 1: what it is. What it is, insert team playing the
Speaker 1: Buffalo bit is that right?
Speaker 2: And they just happen to be playing the best team
Speaker 2: in football.
Speaker 1: Okay, the Chiefs are laying three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, and this is now on
Speaker 1: Monday Night. I believe did this?
Speaker 2: This is supposed to be the name Thurday Night Monday
Speaker 2: Night game? Correct? Yep?
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Matt, make your case as to why
Speaker 1: you do. I mean, you're just a little.
Speaker 2: Bill's defense is absolute trash. And even if White comes
Speaker 2: back in places which he looks like he's.
Speaker 1: Going to, he does.
Speaker 2: Yes, they can't stop any one. And this is a
Speaker 2: pissed off team who is really angry about losing to
Speaker 2: the Raiders. And you've got a team that I think
Speaker 2: is going to come up and put a number. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna put it at forty. The Chiefs will score forty
Speaker 2: on the Buffalo Bills coming up on Monday Night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I have this one on my list, so
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that this will be one that we
Speaker 1: will go with. And I'm never gonna run away from
Speaker 1: backing Patrick Mahomes under any circumstances. I do not despise
Speaker 1: the Bills as Matt that. I mean, I can't imagine
Speaker 1: how happy you were on Tuesday night.
Speaker 2: Because it's funny because people dn me from the Daily
Speaker 2: Juice audience and they were like, why didn't you rub
Speaker 2: it in more that Josh Allen threw two picks and
Speaker 2: looked horrible, Like you said he was going to one
Speaker 2: of those.
Speaker 1: One of those obviously was not in any way his
Speaker 1: fault that bounced off, but still he threw two picks going.
Speaker 2: Through two picks, and the pick that he threw to
Speaker 2: Martin Malcolm Butler was pathetic.
Speaker 1: Well, he threw two to Malcolm Butler.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but for the second one was a real bad one.
Speaker 2: The first one was a deflection.
Speaker 1: The first one was a deflection.
Speaker 2: That one wasn't his fault, yeah, the second one was
Speaker 2: one hundred percent of his fault. And I just I
Speaker 2: don't need to take a victory lap on it because
Speaker 2: it's just like, yeah, this is who this team is.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is this is a regression coming. And
Speaker 2: I'm telling you on November the first, when the Patriots
Speaker 2: play against the Bills, that game will be for first
Speaker 2: place in the division, and everybody thought it was over.
Speaker 2: Bills are gonna run away with it. Oh my gosh.
Speaker 2: They were breathlessly talking up an MVP candidacy for Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: No Chiefs all right, late three and a half.
Speaker 1: So I am also in on this there are You know.
Speaker 1: I do not feel the same way about the Bills
Speaker 1: that Matt does, and I do think there's a chance
Speaker 1: they're going to be a little angry here. They were
Speaker 1: pretty embarrassed on national television, essentially by the Titans. They
Speaker 1: are getting healthier. John Brown has even looks like I
Speaker 1: think he practiced fully today, so he'll probably play. That
Speaker 1: does do a benefit. But again, the Chiefs coming off
Speaker 1: the loss in particular is really what They're gonna.
Speaker 2: Be great, and they should have lost to the Patriots. Yeah,
Speaker 2: if Cam Note plays in that game. They're coming off
Speaker 2: two losses. They've been they're trending in the wrong direction,
Speaker 2: So that's why I like them to bounce back.
Speaker 1: Now. They're gonna be down Sammy Watkins in this game,
Speaker 1: not that big deal because Migel Hardman is very good
Speaker 1: and he will play. I think they're gonna look to
Speaker 1: get back on track here, So I'm not scared off
Speaker 1: by the three and a half. It is in Buffalo,
Speaker 1: but there are no fans and it's not cold yet,
Speaker 1: so I don't think the home field advantage matters that
Speaker 1: much other than the familiarity. And again, not a hugely
Speaker 1: short week because it's a Monday night game, but they
Speaker 1: it is a short week for the Bills since they
Speaker 1: played Tuesday. The line, the consensus line on betting bros
Speaker 1: Like Combatech and Jack, has moved to minus four, so
Speaker 1: it is trending in the direction that we are thinking.
Speaker 1: And sixty eight percent of the consensus of experts against
Speaker 1: the spread are favoring the Chiefs, so we are not alone.
Speaker 1: And I'm fine. Basically, I'll put that one in pen
Speaker 1: because I'm I'm good to go. Though. Okay, let me
Speaker 1: know how you feel about this one, Matt, because I
Speaker 1: don't love that many games this week, but I do
Speaker 1: like a few, and the Chiefs and the Bills were
Speaker 1: one of them. I know it's a divisional game, which
Speaker 1: usually scares me off, but I think in this game
Speaker 1: there are a lot of warning signs for the Browns
Speaker 1: who are flying high, and I kind of like the
Speaker 1: Steelers laying three and a half. Here's my case number one,
Speaker 1: obij I don't want to speculate because we don't know,
Speaker 1: but he left today with an illness. I guess he
Speaker 1: hasn't gotten his test pack unless I've missed it. Twitter
Speaker 1: is down by the way as we record this, or
Speaker 1: at least it was, so I don't know if he
Speaker 1: got that. Jarvis Landry also backed up, has missed practiced.
Speaker 1: When I hear Baker Mayfield is trending in the right
Speaker 1: direction to play, like the Ribs are bothering him, that
Speaker 1: the Steelers defense is gonna I know the Browns have
Speaker 1: a good offensive line, but they get a ton of pressure.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna batter and bruise him, and I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna do a lot of stuff. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: Steelers Deanthony Johnson is practicing, so he's probably gonna play.
Speaker 1: They found their gem and Chase Claypool. Hopefully they know
Speaker 1: how to get involved. This is just a better team.
Speaker 1: And I don't love Mike Tomlin like backing him under
Speaker 1: any of these circumstances, but I do just think right now,
Speaker 1: given that Mayfield is banged up, given that OBJ potentially
Speaker 1: won't play, given that Landry is banged up. Given that
Speaker 1: again they're down Nick Chubb and I know Kareem Hunt
Speaker 1: looks great, but it is a loss. So for me
Speaker 1: divisional game, I get it, but I'm still willing to
Speaker 1: take That's my number one pick, the Steelers. I think
Speaker 1: three and a half to the Browns.
Speaker 2: It's my number two pick.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, okay, this is.
Speaker 2: We don't need to do very much with it. It's
Speaker 2: my number two pick in the week. And I often
Speaker 2: whenever I talk Steelers, I go talk to Dave Shriff,
Speaker 2: pais from Pittsburgh, yep. And the number I think he
Speaker 2: told me is Cleveland has won one time in their
Speaker 2: last twenty.
Speaker 1: In Pittsburgh yep.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I feel pretty good about taking the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 1: But three out of the spread is the consensus spread
Speaker 1: on betting process. Again, I'm looking at the bed analyzer,
Speaker 1: which is a really cool tool because you can look
Speaker 1: at the varies different you know how it is over
Speaker 1: under on the money line, and just where people are
Speaker 1: coming out and where it's moving. It is still at
Speaker 1: three and a half and sixty seven percent around the
Speaker 1: Steelers and the consensus, by the way, just so you know,
Speaker 1: it's not an overwhelming thing that just like, well, we
Speaker 1: like the favorites at all. That's not the way it works.
Speaker 1: I mean, people are putting in you know a lot
Speaker 1: of times you see value in the underdogs. But right
Speaker 1: now both our picks have essentially two thirds of the
Speaker 1: people who are making picks on vettingpros dot com along
Speaker 1: with us. I feel good about it. Okay, I feel
Speaker 1: good about too. Let's get some dissension, Matt, who's your
Speaker 1: number three?
Speaker 2: All right? I don't know if it's gonna be dissension
Speaker 2: or not, but I look at this Green Bay team
Speaker 2: and I'm really, I really like what I'm seeing out
Speaker 2: of this offense. I love the balance. I think lafloor
Speaker 2: and I thought there was some potential for Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 2: and Matt Lafleur to hate each other this year. I
Speaker 2: thought the drafting of Jordan Love was going to drive
Speaker 2: a wedge in this locker room, and it's been the opposite.
Speaker 2: No one's even talking about this kid. Now. They blew
Speaker 2: a first round pick on a quarterback. Never should have
Speaker 2: done that. But they're getting healthy. This defense for the
Speaker 2: Bucks is decent, but I just I'm a little concerned
Speaker 2: about what this offense is looking like for the Bucks.
Speaker 2: I mean, I thought Gronk was going to be a
Speaker 2: really big weapon in the red zone. He's been exult
Speaker 2: He's been literally invisible in the red zone. I think
Speaker 2: the running game is okay, but they're very banged up
Speaker 2: still in with their running back depth. I think their
Speaker 2: offensive line is okay but not great. Brede's getting hit,
Speaker 2: and I think this Packer's defense is a little bit
Speaker 2: sneaky here. I like Green Bay. The number has moved
Speaker 2: quite a bit in favor, I think towards the Tampa
Speaker 2: Bay Bucks, which is really kind of interesting, and I'm
Speaker 2: kind of confused by the line movement. I like green
Speaker 2: Bay minus two and a half here on the road
Speaker 2: under a field goal.
Speaker 1: So what is interesting is that the Bucks are getting
Speaker 1: two and a half points. You said it's moved towards
Speaker 1: the Bucks. The consensus line is actually only the Bucks
Speaker 1: plus one. Okay at the moment, right, So that's basically
Speaker 1: where you were going with it. I'm not sure. I
Speaker 1: don't have a good feel for this game. That's basically
Speaker 1: what I'm going to say here the Packers. Okay, first
Speaker 1: of all, I like how delicate you were being in
Speaker 1: describing you know what this looked like coming into the
Speaker 1: season for the Packers. Yeah, it looked like a disaster.
Speaker 1: They basically ignored Rogers coming in whatsoever into the draft. However,
Speaker 1: they are playing extremely well. But they've beaten the Vikings
Speaker 1: when the Vikings didn't have a secondary to know what
Speaker 1: they were doing, the Lions, the Falcons, and the Saints,
Speaker 1: which I'll give him the Saints, you know that was
Speaker 1: a good win. I when you first messaged me with
Speaker 1: this game, I thought you were taking the Bucks side
Speaker 1: of it. Is that true? By the way I was,
Speaker 1: and you got talked out of it.
Speaker 2: No. I went and read a couple of different stories
Speaker 2: and looked at a couple of different lines, and then
Speaker 2: talked to a friend of mine from Pro Football Focus,
Speaker 2: and they're very concerned about the Bucks offense. Okay, that
Speaker 2: they have very low grades on a lot of a
Speaker 2: lot of the players. Injuries or no injuries. No, Godwin
Speaker 2: being out is significant. Evan's not being healthy is significant.
Speaker 1: I think Godwin may play, that's the thing. He returned
Speaker 1: to practice.
Speaker 2: If he plays it, okay, but he's still not. Him
Speaker 2: and Brady are still not on the same page. And
Speaker 2: I'm still concerned about I mean, O. J. Howard's gone
Speaker 2: for the year, Gronk has been I mean, not a
Speaker 2: part of this offense at all, And I'm just I'm
Speaker 2: concerned about this offense for Tampa. And I think I
Speaker 2: think that the Bucks are going to score, are gonna
Speaker 2: give up thirty here to the Packers. So I mean,
Speaker 2: Demante Adams coming back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Adams is coming back, and and Vi Devea is
Speaker 1: you know, that's a big loss them.
Speaker 2: And you got Aaron Jones running the football, and their
Speaker 2: best run stopping defensive lineman is not playing.
Speaker 1: They're run their defense is so good. I think this
Speaker 1: is one where I'm probably I think I'm on the
Speaker 1: other side, so I think i'd probably stay away from it.
Speaker 1: I don't love like, it wasn't one of my top
Speaker 1: choices to be like give me the Bucks or anything
Speaker 1: like that. Also, I get it they should have won that.
Speaker 1: I mean, I realized they lost to the Bears, but
Speaker 1: they should have won that game pretty easily, despite the
Speaker 1: fact that they nobody a wide receiver, even you know,
Speaker 1: Evans was banged up. I think an angry Brady if
Speaker 1: he gets Godwin back. You know, I don't know, I
Speaker 1: don't want to bet against them in Taba, so I
Speaker 1: think that's a stay away from me. But that's fine.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna like this game. I can guarantee that
Speaker 1: I like the Bears getting two and a half from
Speaker 1: the Panthers in Carolina. Here is why the Panthers have
Speaker 1: looked very good last couple of games, but they don't
Speaker 1: do great against good defenses. Seventeen points against the Bucks,
Speaker 1: twenty one points against the Chargers. It's not like they're
Speaker 1: putting up a ton of points. I don't think they're
Speaker 1: going to be able to put up a ton of
Speaker 1: points against the Bears, who are essentially off of Mini
Speaker 1: BI because they got it on Thursday, and now I
Speaker 1: get it, it's in Carolina. I get it. Nick Foles
Speaker 1: at many points in that game looked terrible. But this
Speaker 1: is kind of a classic case of selling a team
Speaker 1: when they're high. And I think the Panthers are not
Speaker 1: as good as they looked. I think their defense is
Speaker 1: still bad. I think Dave Montgomery's finally going to have
Speaker 1: a really good game in this one. I think the
Speaker 1: Bears defense is really what does it for me? So
Speaker 1: I like the Bears getting two and a half from
Speaker 1: the Panthers in Carolina.
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater is sixteen and four against the spread and
Speaker 2: plus twenty games. Yeah, so you're going against Joe Brady
Speaker 2: and a team that looks better and better and better
Speaker 2: every week.
Speaker 1: Yeah. This is classic case of selling. I de SENSEI
Speaker 1: by the way, is moving in. This is moving in
Speaker 1: the Bears.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, but yeah, I know. I can't take
Speaker 2: this Bears offense. I just it's just such a train wreck.
Speaker 2: It's just such a disaster right now. In terms of
Speaker 2: if Bridgewater gets rolling and puts up some points, I.
Speaker 1: Just well, I think the Bears road.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just Jacimra.
Speaker 1: Road, you know, home road, I.
Speaker 2: Guess there in Carolina though, Yeah, I know.
Speaker 1: But you know, when it's very different when you have
Speaker 1: you know, seven thousand however many fans they have or whatever,
Speaker 1: you know.
Speaker 2: I mean, I've seen people starting to push Matt Rule
Speaker 2: for Coach of the Year.
Speaker 1: Right I I That is classic, though, That's exactly what
Speaker 1: I'm saying. That is classic overreaction to a couple of
Speaker 1: wins off teams that aren't that great and being like,
Speaker 1: look at this, you think if.
Speaker 2: You don't think the Bears are a good team they'll do.
Speaker 1: No, I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't like it. So they're in the same vein
Speaker 2: as all the teams they've beaten.
Speaker 1: But I think they have a legitimate defense. That's what
Speaker 1: I think about the Bears. So I think that the
Speaker 1: fact that the Bears are four and one right now
Speaker 1: is silly. But I do think that they have a
Speaker 1: legitimate defense, and I think that that's where the Panthers
Speaker 1: offense is going to struggle. I still think, you know
Speaker 1: and all, that the Panthers run defense, which is terrible
Speaker 1: to begin with. They're down a few players now coming
Speaker 1: into this game as well. So I really do think
Speaker 1: that the style that Matt Naggie probably wants to run
Speaker 1: in this game, he's going to be able to run.
Speaker 1: So I like the Bears. I'm gonna be on the
Speaker 1: Bears just on my own, but that's fine outside the
Speaker 1: kind of we agreed on the first two, disagreed on
Speaker 1: the next two. Let's go to your next pick. By
Speaker 1: the way, I will say sixty one percent at the
Speaker 1: right now, the consensus lines the Panthers laying one. That
Speaker 1: sixty one percent are on the Panthers, So they're on
Speaker 1: your side on that one. I don't care. I'll be
Speaker 1: on an island.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: Mean, all right, go ahead for your next pick.
Speaker 2: So the next bunch here, those are the three like
Speaker 2: I like, Carolina, Steelers and the Chiefs in Carolina, the
Speaker 2: three that I like a lot.
Speaker 1: The next way you liked Carolina. That was one of
Speaker 1: your picks.
Speaker 2: No, I mean, I don't know if I wrote it
Speaker 2: to you or not, but I've got my list.
Speaker 1: No, no, you don't have to not that you wrote it
Speaker 1: to me. But even now you were going to say.
Speaker 2: Carolina, Yeah, it's all right, it's on my list of
Speaker 2: of I've got basically, Steelers will no let me Yeah,
Speaker 2: Steelers in the Chiefs from my top two. Then Carolina
Speaker 2: came in three number four. My four, five, and six
Speaker 2: picks here are all kind of in the same boat
Speaker 2: of like, I'm not comfortable. I don't like it, but
Speaker 2: I will.
Speaker 1: Well, you listed the Packers as well, all right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I did like Green Bay. I just sorry
Speaker 2: I crossed out Green Bay because you said no across
Speaker 2: North Carolina. So the next one is Dallas, and this
Speaker 2: is going to be a very popular pick here, and
Speaker 2: it's the Cardinals. There's something really wrong with this Cardinals team.
Speaker 2: Chandler Jones is now up for the year, their defense
Speaker 2: can't really tackle anybody, and Andy Dalton's not an awful
Speaker 2: quarterback by any means. I think there is a win
Speaker 2: one for the Gipper type of moment here for the
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys. This is going to be a very public play.
Speaker 2: We're catching two and a half points at home in
Speaker 2: prime time on Monday night, and I love Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: to pick up some nice yardage here. But you know,
Speaker 2: you know, Vanderla may play in this game, which would
Speaker 2: be a real big step up for that defense. He
Speaker 2: was able to go. He's back at practice. I just
Speaker 2: think there's something up here with this Cardinals team, and
Speaker 2: I think they go back to being what they always
Speaker 2: should have been. I think with Dallas, and that's a
Speaker 2: Zeke heavy team, run the football, pound the rock, play
Speaker 2: ball control, and try to keep their defense off the field.
Speaker 2: So I think Dallas catching two and a half points
Speaker 2: is the side I like there.
Speaker 1: It is. I mean, the spread is moving towards Dallas.
Speaker 1: If I like a side, it would be Dallas. But
Speaker 1: this from the guy who is like I can never
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins in primetime. You want to get Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: in primetime, that's where you want to go.
Speaker 2: It's more it's more like I think the team rallies.
Speaker 2: I think the same like with the Texans and the
Speaker 2: Texans coming back and winning that game against Jacksonville, and
Speaker 2: I mean, jackson was so bad. But I just I
Speaker 2: think there's something up with this Cardinals offense. And if
Speaker 2: you look at the passing attack, for I mean, they're
Speaker 2: not giving the ball to Hopkins as much as they
Speaker 2: should be, and there's been some regression there from the
Speaker 2: quarterback in Murray. So he's still run the ball a lot,
Speaker 2: but he's not throwing the ball down the field nearly
Speaker 2: as much as you would like. And all these safeties
Speaker 2: are creeping up to the line of scrimmage and saying,
Speaker 2: go ahead, throw over the top, and they don't do it.
Speaker 2: So I don't know what to make of what's going
Speaker 2: on with the Cardinals. It's more of a fade on
Speaker 2: the Cardinals than it is a take on Andy Dolon.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll say this, I don't hate it. I'll put
Speaker 1: it to the side. Okay, it's the right side of
Speaker 1: the pick. I think it is, by the way, so
Speaker 1: on the bed analyzer, I can sort by heavily picked
Speaker 1: one side to none. It's fifty to fifty. Okay, the
Speaker 1: Cowboys one and a half. I'm going to be on
Speaker 1: the Cowboys when I picked the game. I'm just not
Speaker 1: trying one it for the contest. But if we can't agree,
Speaker 1: that's one where I might be willing to plus. It's
Speaker 1: fun to bet a Monday.
Speaker 2: Night game, by the way, but we already have one
Speaker 2: with k C.
Speaker 1: That's true.
Speaker 2: That's true.
Speaker 1: So you double it up and double your pleasure, double
Speaker 1: your fun. Yeah, I might. I might. Let's put that
Speaker 1: one in the maybe category, so I don't. We're not
Speaker 1: nixing it. You may nix this one after what happened
Speaker 1: to us last week with this team, it's the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers getting three and a half from the Rams.
Speaker 1: I feel like we're both generally a little high on
Speaker 1: the Rams this year, so it's kind of weird. You know,
Speaker 1: we like the whole There are no you know, fans
Speaker 1: to bother Jared Goff and McVeigh in his ear. But
Speaker 1: this what happened last week, Man Garoppolo looked terrible, absolutely terrible.
Speaker 1: I think it's just kind of one of those weeks
Speaker 1: they haven't looked great at all for the whole year,
Speaker 1: and they're injured of course throughout. It just felt like
Speaker 1: one of those weeks. And I think they're going to
Speaker 1: be pretty desperate here. I think this is their third
Speaker 1: straight game at home. Yes, if I'm not yet right,
Speaker 1: their third straight game at home. I think Garoppolo is
Speaker 1: going to start. I think that was just a bad growl.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was the ankle or whether
Speaker 1: or not whatever it was, I think he just wasn't right.
Speaker 1: It was one of those terrible games. I think it's
Speaker 1: too much of an overreaction how we're looking at with
Speaker 1: the line. I think they're getting a little healthier on defense.
Speaker 1: I've obviously lost you know, Bosa for the full year
Speaker 1: and everything like that, but mostly Witherspoon's going to be back,
Speaker 1: so getting a little healthier in the secondary. Mostard is
Speaker 1: now back that ran do not stop tight ends very well.
Speaker 1: So I think Kittle's going to go crazy. And this
Speaker 1: just strikes me again. I look for these situations where it's,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of Bilo sell high here in this situation,
Speaker 1: and forty nine ers will strike me as a team
Speaker 1: that's Bilo. If I'm getting more than a field goal
Speaker 1: in this game, I'm willing to take it. So that's
Speaker 1: my next pick, go ahead.
Speaker 2: I think we should take it. Really yeah, and a
Speaker 2: couple of reasons why won. I wouldn't bet this game, Okay,
Speaker 2: because I feel okay enough putting a pick on it
Speaker 2: for our team versus money. So I again, I talk
Speaker 2: to a lot of people about a variety and this
Speaker 2: is a game where one of the people I talk to,
Speaker 2: he's got a guy who runs all these algorithms and numbers,
Speaker 2: and he has this game as Sam Fran minus one.
Speaker 2: The look aheadline was Sam Fran minus three. Now it's
Speaker 2: they're catching three and a half points. Yeah, so we're
Speaker 2: catching six and a half points of value here in
Speaker 2: this game. And it's a divisional game, coming off of
Speaker 2: a horrible performance, and you know this team is going
Speaker 2: to get ripped and screamed at and they're gonna go
Speaker 2: crazy for this. They need a victory desperately. Here. It's
Speaker 2: a four and one RAMS team. I don't think they're
Speaker 2: a five and one caliber team. And I don't think
Speaker 2: San Fran is this bad. Now, there's always a the
Speaker 2: regression for the team that comes off of a loss
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl. But this is a team that
Speaker 2: needs a victory in the worst way, and I could
Speaker 2: easily see the Rams winning it on a last second
Speaker 2: kick and we win, and we win on the hook,
Speaker 2: so exactly. I like the three and a half number there.
Speaker 2: It's more of a numbers play for the contest than
Speaker 2: anything else. But I think the hook there matters.
Speaker 1: Yep, it's the hook. And right now, by the way,
Speaker 1: the consensus line is down to three at that point,
Speaker 1: it's a little different, right yep. Oh I'm getting something.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, the this only helps us with our pick.
Speaker 1: Matt per ESPN. Apparently Le'Veon Bell will be signing with
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Chiefs five News, which really, I mean, but
Speaker 1: whatever the spread is, they're gonna win by twelve now
Speaker 1: once Bell is there. No, I'm kidding, Matt. It's completely irrelevan.
Speaker 2: But I don't know. It's irrelevant though, I mean, it's
Speaker 2: it's it is another guy for them to go ahead
Speaker 2: and and and use in the screen game and have him. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, I think he's a weapon. I mean he
Speaker 2: can catch the football and run the football.
Speaker 1: I just can Edwards Hilaire.
Speaker 2: Though I'm a little weird. I'm a little weirded out
Speaker 2: by that. I mean, that's the only thing that if
Speaker 2: you have any futures on On Edwards, e Layer, winning
Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year or you know, having a big season,
Speaker 2: if he's on your fancy team or whatnot, then all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, you're bringing in somebody to take away
Speaker 2: touches from him.
Speaker 1: So I don't know, that's that's fair. That's fair. That's
Speaker 1: something that's fair, and you will, you know, factor in.
Speaker 1: I'm sure Bell will, but I've watched.
Speaker 2: Weird those because he could have. I mean, I supposedly
Speaker 2: the Dolphins threw a ton of money on him.
Speaker 1: He wants to win, he wants to win a Super
Speaker 1: Bowl wants I get.
Speaker 2: That, I do, But I also I also say, like
Speaker 2: you could have gone I don't know, you could have
Speaker 2: gone to a to a team where you were going
Speaker 2: to be utilized and win, you know, and win a
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. I just feel like there's so many guys
Speaker 2: who want who want touches and an offense already that
Speaker 2: is just such a stacked team already. But it's a
Speaker 2: big move for the Chiefs. I mean, that's that's a
Speaker 2: big weapon.
Speaker 1: Well, that's what we've we've reached our our limit on
Speaker 1: how much we could talk about Leveon Bell. So we've
Speaker 1: got three now, Matt, we've got three that I feel
Speaker 1: okay about. These are three of my top four picks.
Speaker 1: So go to your next one.
Speaker 2: So these next two are just gross and I don't
Speaker 2: know what to do with it, and so I want
Speaker 2: to see kind of how you feel. Go ahead, how
Speaker 2: do you feel about Texans plus three and a half
Speaker 2: against the Titans.
Speaker 1: I kind of like that game. I almost had basically
Speaker 1: written it off because I was like, well, you love
Speaker 1: the Titans, justifiably. They've been playing exceptional football. You liked
Speaker 1: them coming in. You took the alternative win total on
Speaker 1: the daily juice, which I love because I really do
Speaker 1: have a rooting interest. It looks like a great call
Speaker 1: by you, as long as they can avoid injury. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I kind of liked that game, but I it was
Speaker 1: like down on my list because I said, there's no
Speaker 1: way Matt's gonna want.
Speaker 2: To It's again, it's the same thing like with San Francisco.
Speaker 2: It's the same thing. It's more of a system play
Speaker 2: because it's a divisional game, and like, I don't know,
Speaker 2: I mean, the Titans have been playing so many of
Speaker 2: these tight football games, and look they just blew had
Speaker 2: a huge blowout victory. They're playing really angry and they
Speaker 2: were mad and they want to shut everybody up. But
Speaker 2: now they're on the Now. The only thing that scares
Speaker 2: me about this game is this game's at home. This
Speaker 2: was at Houston. I feel way more comfortable taking Houston.
Speaker 2: But since it's at Tennessee, like I just, I don't
Speaker 2: know about it. It concerns me about right now. But
Speaker 2: it is one of the games that from a system play,
Speaker 2: you know, catching three and a half points in a
Speaker 2: divisional game. I don't hate it, so I didn't know
Speaker 2: how you feel. How you it's on my list. I
Speaker 2: don't know if you hated it or liked it, but
Speaker 2: I'd be willing to consider it.
Speaker 1: It's on my list. It's on my list. I don't
Speaker 1: want to write it in in penn because I want
Speaker 1: to talk through a couple more games. But it is
Speaker 1: at three and a half that the overwhelming insensus is
Speaker 1: on the Titans at three and a half. But I
Speaker 1: agree with you for the contest. It is sort of
Speaker 1: something and they don't you know. The one thing I said,
Speaker 1: I it's more of the first game out and it's
Speaker 1: not like the Texans played that well against the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: The Jaguars easily could have covered. Yes, that's Brandon the
Speaker 1: goals had a kicker, all right, but the Texans did you.
Speaker 1: I mean, Watson threw three touchdown passes. The offense is
Speaker 1: going to look better now that they're facing some softer defenses.
Speaker 1: I think Brandon Cooks looked good as long as Will
Speaker 1: Fuller is healthy, David Johnson is still around, and Deshaun
Speaker 1: Watson is really good. It's a short week for the Titans.
Speaker 1: They're coming off like a huge when like a real
Speaker 1: short week, right, I mean, because they're you know, so
Speaker 1: I I kind of like it, Matt. I could see
Speaker 1: this one being one.
Speaker 2: The pass rush from the Titans just is not there.
Speaker 2: There's just nothing. There's nobody getting after the quarterback. Their
Speaker 2: secondary is good, but their pass rush is not there.
Speaker 2: So yeah, you give Watson time in the pocket and
Speaker 2: he picks people apart. So that's my that's my concern
Speaker 2: with that. Because the Texans are one in four and
Speaker 2: the Titans are four and oh and do I think
Speaker 2: they go to five? And oh? I mean I have
Speaker 2: them at nine and a half wins, they go to
Speaker 2: five and oh, that would be amazing. But I just
Speaker 2: something tells me that they're due to have all this
Speaker 2: chaos and controversy kind of a flat spot for them
Speaker 2: potentially in their schedule against a team that's totally up
Speaker 2: against a wall.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this just strikes me as a game that they're
Speaker 1: you know that Houston's going to be able to keep
Speaker 1: close and you're getting the hook. I kind of like it.
Speaker 1: My guess is we're going with it. My guess is
Speaker 1: we're going with it. But let's keep talking through some
Speaker 1: of them. How do you feel this is not you know,
Speaker 1: I have full authority now to do whatever I want
Speaker 1: with the Jets. I'm not exercising it on this game
Speaker 1: because I don't love it, But I am on the
Speaker 1: Dolphins side of the laying eight and a half against
Speaker 1: the Jets. How do you feel right now? We've got
Speaker 1: you know, Sam Darnold already ruled out for the game,
Speaker 1: so it's you know, slinging Joe Flacco there. They may
Speaker 1: get a little healthier wide receiver Brashad Perman is starting
Speaker 1: to practice. I don't think Mims is going to be back.
Speaker 1: I know he's activated off ir but he got twenty
Speaker 1: one days. How do you feel about the Dolphins laying
Speaker 1: eight and a half to the Jets.
Speaker 2: I'd be fine with it. I mean, I think the
Speaker 2: Jets are done. I think they're keeping Audham gaze for
Speaker 2: a reason, and I think that they want to lose, and
Speaker 2: it's just a matter of how many points where they
Speaker 2: lose by.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's up to nine and a half already.
Speaker 2: If you want to still, if you want to stand
Speaker 2: on a table and say, this is a game where
Speaker 2: I mean the Patriots are ten point favorites to the Broncos, Yeah,
Speaker 2: the Dolphins are could have just destroyed the Jets.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know what makes me hesitant. The reason
Speaker 1: I'm not because I've been jumping on every other Jet.
Speaker 1: I've always wanted to be like the Cardinals seven and
Speaker 1: a half. I don't care it's more in a touchdown.
Speaker 1: I don't care that I'm fading the Cardinals at this point.
Speaker 1: The Jets are historically bad at this point. Is that
Speaker 1: it does strike me a little bit as like you
Speaker 1: see fits come out every once in a while and
Speaker 1: just be like, oh, today's the day, Today's the day
Speaker 1: where I'm throwing four interceptions, doesn't matter the opponent, but
Speaker 1: it really is hard.
Speaker 2: But he's keeping Tua on the sidelines by how I know,
Speaker 2: So I think there's something to the fact that he
Speaker 2: doesn't want to give it up.
Speaker 1: You've seen him though enough. Oh, you know that these
Speaker 1: can go away. I think this is one that I
Speaker 1: kind of like, but I'm not one hundred percent putting
Speaker 1: it in, but I lean that way. So right now,
Speaker 1: we could put in this one, and we could put
Speaker 1: in the Texans, and I'd be totally fine with our
Speaker 1: five picks right now. But let's keep talking through any
Speaker 1: other game that you have on your wridar. And I
Speaker 1: will say, by the way, ninety two percent of the
Speaker 1: experts who have made picks are on the on the
Speaker 1: Dolphins who are giving. And again the spread is rising,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe because Darnold was out, maybe because the
Speaker 1: books are slowly realizing we can't make the line high enough.
Speaker 1: You know that that year that the Patriots were favored
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins, you know whatever was that last year?
Speaker 1: Probably Yeah, where the where the spreads just got to
Speaker 1: be like sixteen or seventeen. They're like, we don't really
Speaker 1: know when it ends. I feel like it might be
Speaker 1: like that for the Jets, especially with flack O there.
Speaker 1: So let's put that one in the maybe pile. But
Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards it as well any other games they like, Yeah.
Speaker 2: The last one on my list. And something's up with
Speaker 2: the Colts offense, and I'm just not whether it's Philip
Speaker 2: Rivers and the lack of arm strength or that Jonathan
Speaker 2: Taylor is not the running back that I thought he
Speaker 2: was going to be in the NFL for having a
Speaker 2: great career. The worry he was how much Wisconsin used
Speaker 2: him And I don't know if there's just none enough
Speaker 2: troad on the tires or what. But Cincinnati got embarrassed
Speaker 2: and they couldn't do anything. They were blitzed like crazy.
Speaker 2: And the Colts defense is okay, hey, but they're not great.
Speaker 2: They've been banged up. I know Leonard's coming back and whatnot,
Speaker 2: but I think Joe Burrow to keep this game within
Speaker 2: eight and a half points. I think since he is
Speaker 2: gonna be they might lose, but I think they're in
Speaker 2: the game by a touchdown or lessier against the Colts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's moving in that direction. It's seven and a
Speaker 1: half now at the consensus sixty four percent of our
Speaker 1: experts like Cincy. Yeah, that's a really tough one for me.
Speaker 1: Do we know about Leonard? Is he practiced?
Speaker 2: Think he's questionable, but I think I think he was
Speaker 2: back at practice today.
Speaker 1: If he plays, that makes me a little less excited
Speaker 1: about it, just because I think that that the whole defense.
Speaker 1: It's just it's hard to see, you know, it's it's
Speaker 1: it's another one that's maybe this is a weird week, Matt,
Speaker 1: because I feel like there are a lot of games
Speaker 1: that I'm like, Okay, I can live with this game,
Speaker 1: Like that's a game. If you were like Dan, I
Speaker 1: love this game. This is my game, gotta put it in.
Speaker 1: I think it's okay. I just worry a little bit.
Speaker 1: I agree completely Rivers looks completely toast, like just done,
Speaker 1: like can't do anything. What's However, Taylor looked a little
Speaker 1: better I thought last game, and I think he's you know,
Speaker 1: hopefully they might just need to ride him a little
Speaker 1: more and let him get in a groove as opposed
Speaker 1: to giving touches to Jordan Wilkins and Niam Hines. But
Speaker 1: I agree that it seems weird that they would be
Speaker 1: able to kind of run away with this thing and
Speaker 1: get it by more than a touch on. So let's
Speaker 1: put that one in the maybe pile as well. Let's
Speaker 1: run through a couple other games, sure, and then we
Speaker 1: can tell on how do you feel about the Giants
Speaker 1: slaying too, I'm not picking either side. I'm just giving
Speaker 1: the spread. So I don't think I'm taking the spread
Speaker 1: in New York. The Giants giving two and a half
Speaker 1: to Washington.
Speaker 2: See the whole thing with the quarterback spot with Washington
Speaker 2: concerns me a little bit because if I had some
Speaker 2: better idea as to like, Okay, Kyle Allen's playing and
Speaker 2: that's it. He is, I know he is, but if
Speaker 2: he gets dinged up, I mean he gets hurt again,
Speaker 2: here comes Alex Smith, so.
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, but that's every that's every I know.
Speaker 2: Like if you if you play your first half of
Speaker 2: football in forever for your team and you get hurt
Speaker 2: in the first week, the first the first week, first quarter, yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean come on, Like, I'm just like, something's I'm
Speaker 2: concerned about trusting what Washington could do because I do
Speaker 2: think if they get Chase Young back and he's effective.
Speaker 2: I mean I don't like either team in New York
Speaker 2: to be quite honest, I don't think any either the
Speaker 2: Jets or the Giant, should be favored against anybody in
Speaker 2: the NFL.
Speaker 1: That's I think the wrong team might be favorite. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's legitimately how I feel. I think the wrong team
Speaker 1: is favored.
Speaker 2: And I just don't know what's going with their offense.
Speaker 2: I mean, I just don't know if I can trust
Speaker 2: their quarterbacks to stay healthy. And then am I big
Speaker 2: on Alex Smith.
Speaker 1: To if we're betting on Alex Smith again, awesome story,
Speaker 1: incredible to see him out there, But he couldn't you know, Yeah,
Speaker 1: he couldn't.
Speaker 2: Thirty nine yards passing in the second half.
Speaker 1: He's not healthy enough, you know, or you know, he
Speaker 1: can't move well enough I think at this point to
Speaker 1: do anything on offense. So yeah, that's fine. But alan
Speaker 1: is is Flinn. I'm not pushing for this game. But
Speaker 1: we're both on the same side. We're both on Washington
Speaker 1: getting two and a half. Okay, But I admit we're
Speaker 1: at the point where I don't like any of these
Speaker 1: games are about to discuss as much as the games
Speaker 1: that we already have discussed. But I do want to
Speaker 1: see so we know when you and I talk about it,
Speaker 1: on Saturday nights. How we feel about it? But I am,
Speaker 1: you know, talk to you guys, because I am. I
Speaker 1: do like washing it. But I agree that if Alex
Speaker 1: Smith were in there, it would make me a little nervous.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about your boys? The Patriots laying
Speaker 1: nine and a half to the Broncos. Cam newton Is
Speaker 1: back sounds like Stefine Gilmore's back.
Speaker 2: So according to the Pro Football Focus friends of mine, yes,
Speaker 2: they think this line should be fourteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not kidding.
Speaker 2: And it's they too. They believe it's too low. They
Speaker 2: believe that Cam Cam and company. This is where my
Speaker 2: fandom gets a little oftentime. It's part of my every
Speaker 2: every week on the Daily Juice, I do a teaser.
Speaker 2: It missed for the first time all year. It's four
Speaker 2: and one now for a two leg teaser, and it
Speaker 2: missed because the Jacksonville Jaguars kicker missed two two field
Speaker 2: goals two chip shots. If he hits both those field goals,
Speaker 2: that the teasers five and oh, so I got screwed
Speaker 2: by a kicker. This is one of my legs taking
Speaker 2: the taking the Patriots and teasing it down and I
Speaker 2: hope more money comes in here and the line stop.
Speaker 2: It's going up. But right now it's ten. I would
Speaker 2: teas down to four. If I can get three and
Speaker 2: a half or three, I would love it. But the
Speaker 2: Patriots are winning this game. My question is by what
Speaker 2: number are they're winning this game? And the Broncos and
Speaker 2: the Patriots have a funky history with each other. It's
Speaker 2: just a it's a it's an unseen rivalry. It's not
Speaker 2: talked about all that much, but the two franchises hate
Speaker 2: each other, like they just straight up hate each other.
Speaker 2: So I mean, you get the quarterback back, although I'm
Speaker 2: not a huge fan of him, and I don't hate it.
Speaker 2: It's just, you know, double digits. Everyone's saying it should
Speaker 2: be over double digits, so this line would be under
Speaker 2: double digits, So I would say I would I don't
Speaker 2: hate it. How about that? Which if you said you
Speaker 2: wanted to take it, I wouldn't say no.
Speaker 1: No, okay, I don't want to take it. But it
Speaker 1: is one. There's going to be these games, and again
Speaker 1: follow us on Twitter, tweet it out Dan Harris Hadi
Speaker 1: and ad Sports Talk Matt where we are going to
Speaker 1: give out our final picks. This is one where one
Speaker 1: hundred percent. I could see if you talk to people
Speaker 1: and you sort of get more info. I like, if
Speaker 1: you say, Dan, I want to do this, we're doing
Speaker 1: because there are something like right now where it'd be
Speaker 1: like if you want to take the panthers, I'm just
Speaker 1: not doing it. Like I like the bear side of it,
Speaker 1: so we're not going to go there. But we're on
Speaker 1: the same side of this one. So it is one
Speaker 1: that we probably will not pick when I recap what
Speaker 1: our picks are at the end, but it is one
Speaker 1: that I would be willing to consider for certain if
Speaker 1: you get better info on it. And again you know,
Speaker 1: it's still the consensus line is still at nine and
Speaker 1: a half. It's sixty four percent around New England. I
Speaker 1: think that's the right side. Even if Drew Locke comes back,
Speaker 1: Even if Melvin Gordon plays, which I guess you.
Speaker 2: Believe that that's how bad this team is, that they
Speaker 2: might actually play a guy who had a DUI driving
Speaker 2: ninety five and a thirty five whatever heck he was driving.
Speaker 1: Well, you let him know as a lawyer. As a lawyer, Matt,
Speaker 1: you know, everybody is innocent until proven guilty. And if
Speaker 1: they want to let it go out the way they want.
Speaker 2: But I understand two million dollars by the way, with
Speaker 2: that because he has a clause in his contract forgetting
Speaker 2: if forgetting arrested. I believe it. I think it is.
Speaker 2: And so he lost two million in a clause if
Speaker 2: he got in trouble. So it's it's not good for him.
Speaker 1: But while he's going to get suspended, almost without quite
Speaker 1: assuming that there's nothing that you know is missing from
Speaker 1: the story, he's going to get suspended probably for three
Speaker 1: games from the NFL. But it sounds like he might play.
Speaker 1: This is like crazy, like it doesn't I'm I'm going
Speaker 1: into it, assuming that Gordon plays right, going into it,
Speaker 1: assuming that Locke is back and healthy, and I still
Speaker 1: like the Patriots right and a half. I don't love it,
Speaker 1: but it is something that's on there for me. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's do a couple of other games here. In these
Speaker 1: games I really don't have a good feel on either way.
Speaker 1: The Lions laying three and a half to the Jaguars
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville, I.
Speaker 2: Mean, this is one in three verses one and four.
Speaker 2: Why are we talking about this game?
Speaker 1: It's gross. I don't want it. I'm glad to pick
Speaker 1: a side.
Speaker 2: I'll take the home dog at plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll take I think this is the Lions coming
Speaker 1: out party. Look at Jaguars and they win by fours. No,
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want any piece of it at all.
Speaker 1: They're both terrible teams. If I have to pick a side,
Speaker 1: it would be on the line, just because I think
Speaker 1: the Jaguars are terrible. They are getting a little healthy
Speaker 1: on defense, which which does you know? I think Miles
Speaker 1: Jack is back practice at least. But I do think
Speaker 1: that Galladay given full health, that this could be a
Speaker 1: game where the Lions put up a ton of points.
Speaker 1: But it's not a game that I want to go
Speaker 1: anywhere near. I will not be picking either side of
Speaker 1: it with I have to how about the Ravens lak
Speaker 1: seven and a half to the Eagles.
Speaker 2: So this is the other side of my teaser. Is
Speaker 2: the Ravens down to one and a half? Yep against
Speaker 2: the Eagles, Ravens win. I'm just I don't like the
Speaker 2: hook there, so I feel like a backdoor potential is there,
Speaker 2: or maybe a straight blowout and the Ravens destroy him.
Speaker 2: But Ravens are winning the game as a matter what
Speaker 2: by how much.
Speaker 1: I think if I had to, if I had to bet,
Speaker 1: it would be that the Ravens are gonna just massacre
Speaker 1: them completely. But you do have this thing where Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: it didn't look great, didn't look like he wanted to run.
Speaker 1: You know, maybe his knee really is bothering him. Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz is able. I mean, they they look like they
Speaker 1: were just going to get completely destroyed in that Pittsburgh game.
Speaker 1: Then suddenly he turned around.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was like, wha wait.
Speaker 1: We were like what you and I were texting to
Speaker 1: the were like what the heck is going on here?
Speaker 1: And they the Eagles are getting healthier right now. They
Speaker 1: may have al Seon Jeffery and Deshaun Jackson back for
Speaker 1: this game. So it is a game where I'd rather
Speaker 1: stay away. But if I had to choose one seven
Speaker 1: and a half points, I would still go with Baltimore
Speaker 1: despite the hook and sixty three percent of our experts
Speaker 1: feel the same way. How about the Falcons getting three
Speaker 1: and a half from Minnesota. I think that's the only
Speaker 1: game we haven't touched on yet.
Speaker 2: Oh and five versus one and four, and I don't
Speaker 2: I mean, I won't watch one second of this game.
Speaker 2: This is just a garbage football game. Dan Quinn getting fired.
Speaker 2: It worked for the Texans, so maybe it works for We.
Speaker 1: Talked about that last week. By the way, there is
Speaker 1: kind of this.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: Again, it's mostly anecdotal at this point because I haven't
Speaker 1: been able. I haven't had enough time to go in
Speaker 1: and quantify it. But I feel like every time I
Speaker 1: see a coach get fired that first game back, yeah,
Speaker 1: that team plays a little inspired.
Speaker 2: I had to play, I would take the three and
Speaker 2: a half. I'll take the plus points there.
Speaker 1: Now, I would take the vikings in this game. But
Speaker 1: I want absolutely no part of it whatsoever. Okay, So
Speaker 1: this is Matt, where I think I'm going to put
Speaker 1: in our You let me know if there's anything off here,
Speaker 1: or I'm going to put in our potential picks right now.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna put them in. I don't put them
Speaker 1: in until Saturday night. So I give Matt, me and
Speaker 1: Matt plenty of time talk. But we're definitely putting in
Speaker 1: the Chiefs laying three and a half to the Bills. Yes,
Speaker 1: we're definitely putting in the Steelers laying three and a
Speaker 1: half to the Brown Yes, we're definitely putting in I
Speaker 1: guess the forty nine ers getting three and a half
Speaker 1: from the.
Speaker 2: Ramp Yeah, I'm okay with that.
Speaker 1: We are prop now these other two are are right
Speaker 1: now tentative picks. But the Texans getting three and a
Speaker 1: half from the Titans. And if you had made me
Speaker 1: make a list of potential, you know, picks that we're
Speaker 1: going to be in this contest for us, this one
Speaker 1: would have been like last.
Speaker 2: This is almost fading myself, by the way, I love it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, fade yourself exactly right. And the final one I'm
Speaker 1: gonna put in, matt Uh. You know, I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the Dolphins, like eight and a half to the
Speaker 1: Jets for our final one because I think we're both
Speaker 1: on that side. However, the other ones that we are considering,
Speaker 1: and so if you are saying, well, I don't really
Speaker 1: care about your picks, guys, I just kind of want
Speaker 1: to know which way you lean. We definitely both lean
Speaker 1: Dallas getting two and a half points at home from
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and that line is moving in Dallas' direction.
Speaker 1: We lean the Patriots laying nine and a half points
Speaker 1: to the Broncos in New England. That's just one where
Speaker 1: I don't think we can pull the trigger. Other than that,
Speaker 1: we're kind of back and forth on a couple sides.
Speaker 1: I like the Bears, you like the Panthers. That in particular,
Speaker 1: the game that we're actually split on right now are
Speaker 1: the Bucks and the Packers, where we're on different sides
Speaker 1: of that game. But that's it. I don't know, Matt.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is probably the week we go one
Speaker 1: and four because I'm like, oh, I feel good. I
Speaker 1: like these picks, but I feel good about these. I
Speaker 1: think there are a couple of ones that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like our top three a lot, and yeah,
Speaker 2: me too, I think they like last week, we liked
Speaker 2: our top three a lot, And then I think it
Speaker 2: comes in. And that's really when it comes to these contests,
Speaker 2: and even just when you're betting in general, like the
Speaker 2: bottom you're betting four to five games, the bottom four
Speaker 2: and five are the ones that make or break your
Speaker 2: day or make or break your weekend for the picks.
Speaker 2: So it's just if you have your hot, you go
Speaker 2: five and oh. If if you don't, you go three
Speaker 2: and two. But you just want to keep yourself in
Speaker 2: plus money obviously.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again another thing to think about at least
Speaker 1: for the contest. For us is the fact that, as
Speaker 1: you've mentioned before, New Hampshire is one of the states
Speaker 1: where people can bet on the DraftKings Contest's that's where
Speaker 1: I live, and so there's probably gonna be a lot
Speaker 1: of people picking the Patriots in a game where the
Speaker 1: Patriots could be picked. So that might be a game that,
Speaker 1: even though it's under consideration, we might want to fade
Speaker 1: unless you get info which says no, no.
Speaker 2: No, no, I'm not fading that if we bet that
Speaker 2: we're on the Patriots.
Speaker 1: No, no, for sure, I wouldn't go the other way
Speaker 1: whether we put that no, no, no, I'm not going.
Speaker 1: I don't care what info you have. I'm not back
Speaker 1: reaching clock and against an angry Bill Belichick and a
Speaker 1: healthy Patriots deeper short. All right, excellent, that's it. So
Speaker 1: a reminder, eleven am to twelve pm Eastern time, so
Speaker 1: eight o'clock on Matt's time. On Sunday mornings, Matt does
Speaker 1: a YouTube, a live stream on YouTube where he gets
Speaker 1: breaks down the whole day. I'm going to give him
Speaker 1: the props. I don't care if I have no water.
Speaker 1: I'm going to make sure that I get him my
Speaker 1: props the night before. It's it's a fun time. Matt
Speaker 1: interacts with everybody, and listen to the Daily Juice guys,
Speaker 1: it's it's a great podcast. It's fifteen minutes every morning
Speaker 1: Matt breaks down his best bets. He is close. I
Speaker 1: don't know what the scores right now, Matt, but you
Speaker 1: are close to cashing that thousand.
Speaker 2: Plus one thousand rays we made in July, one full
Speaker 2: unit riding on a plus one thousand bets. So I've
Speaker 2: been watching that like a hawk. This is gonna I mean,
Speaker 2: it's you know, to get ten ten units to go
Speaker 2: ahead and add that to our to our roster, to
Speaker 2: our record. Is going to be a really nice, a
Speaker 2: nice edition plus a hell of a way to start
Speaker 2: a weekend if I can get the race. It's three
Speaker 2: to two Houston as we speak, though, so.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, all right, all right, so hopefully they pull
Speaker 1: it out. But either way, I think they are going
Speaker 1: to find a way to pull out that series. And
Speaker 1: I have them on I think plus eighteen hundred because
Speaker 1: I got a little late to win the series.
Speaker 2: World Series.
Speaker 1: Yes, oh no, and that was that was my one
Speaker 1: baseball bat and I go, wow, all right, my one
Speaker 1: real one. I might have sprinkled a little bit on
Speaker 1: like some small ones like the Rockies to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Give me the thing which that didn't hit.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's crazy. I never make future bets. I
Speaker 2: made three. I made the the Yankees under thirty seven
Speaker 2: wins that hit. Yes, I have, uh that was minus
Speaker 2: one point fifteen or something like that. I had. And
Speaker 2: I have the Dodgers at plus three thirty to win
Speaker 2: the World Series, and I have and I have the
Speaker 2: Rays to win the American League.
Speaker 1: Awesome. That well, your futures in football as well, everybody.
Speaker 1: You had the Jets under six and a half, which
Speaker 1: something tells me you're gonna sneak by by six or
Speaker 1: seven wins. You've got the alternative win total for the
Speaker 1: Titans at nine and a half, which looks great at
Speaker 1: plus one fifty five I think, or something like that.
Speaker 1: And I think you've got what the Raiders over seven? Yep, yeah,
Speaker 1: looking pretty good, not bad, not bad, all right, very good. Anyway,
Speaker 1: listen to the Daily Juicy you can find out Betting
Speaker 1: pros dot com, slash podcast, or anywhere that you listen
Speaker 1: to podcasts. We will be back every week doing this
Speaker 1: breaking down the Slate. In the meantime, you g reaches
Speaker 1: on Twitter, as I said, Dan Harris Adi and that
Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt And until then we will talk to
Speaker 1: you on this podcast next week