WEBVTT - Can Kamala Harris Win? The Obstacles Facing Her Candidacy 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:15.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.960 Welcome to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. This year, 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:24.480 voters around the world have the ability to move markets, countries, 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.960 and economies like never before, so we created this series 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.880 to help you make sense of it all. I'm Stephanie Flanders. 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:32.680 And I'm Adrian Woodridge. 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:35.920 And as I know we all know by now, President 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:39.559 Joe Biden has confirmed he will not seek nomination for 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:44.400 the twenty twenty four presidential campaign. That statement was released 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:49.919 on Sunday afternoon US Time, led to an outpouring of 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.840 respect and thanks to him for making this decision, which 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:55.640 an awful lot of people have been begging him to 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:59.560 make for several weeks since that terrible performance in the debate. 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:03.120 Going to try, Adrian to avoid telling people loads of 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.240 things that they already know, but we did think we 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.959 should focus this episode on this major change in the 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:12.560 US presidential race and start to think about some of 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:16.319 what might happen next. But your first thoughts on what 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.760 happened on Sunday and the path forward. 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:22.320 Well, I think the crowning of Joe Biden has sort 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:26.440 of Cincinnatus as this great figure who has sacrificed himself 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:30.200 for on his sword for the good of the republic. 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:33.800 Is rather annoying, I must say, because he fought as 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:35.760 long as he could and as hard as he had 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:37.959 to be virtually leave it out of the position. But 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:40.959 he was inevitable. It was just a matter of time. 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.880 And it does seem as though the script is playing 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:46.720 itself out in a fairly controlled way, in the sense 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:50.480 that Kamala Harris will be the nominee in as something 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:55.240 very strange or very unpredictable happens, and the Democratic Party 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:59.240 will unite behind her. And she does look on paper 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:01.880 at least like quite strong candidate, partly because she's a woman, 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:05.640 partly because he's ethnic minority, partly because he's young. She's 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:09.040 fifty nine against a seventy year old seventy eight year 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:12.200 old Trump. So it'll be the Democrats playing the age card, 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:15.520 which that the Republicans have been playing, and partly because 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.320 the Democratic Party does sort of have a spring in 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.360 except at the moment the money is pouring in. There's 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:26.000 a lot of good will towards her, and the sense 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:30.519 that they looked at defeat and decided that victory was 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:31.119 a better. 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:34.520 Option, and We're going to say more about the situation 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:37.120 with donors a bit later on. It were certainly stunning. 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.440 There was just under fifty million dollars in grassroots do 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:44.839 nation in the less than twenty four hours since Joe 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:48.160 Biden made that statement, and we know that there had 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.240 been a very much, very little money coming in over 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:54.080 the last few weeks as we saw this debate over 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:58.680 his performance play out. The interesting thing, though, I mean, 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.720 when a lot of the big donor I had heard 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:06.000 saying over the last few weeks that they were nervous 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:10.280 about the Carmela stage of the process, that they quite 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:12.639 wanted to get to an open process. They wanted to 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:15.560 get to those exciting, new, shiny candidates who had less 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.839 of the baggage of the Biden administration hanging off them. 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:20.920 You know, it now seems you know a lot of 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.600 those candidates that get talked about, whether it's Gavin Newsom 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:29.200 or the Michigan governor Gritch and Whitmer immediately said that 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:34.120 they were came out in support of Carmela when Biden 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:37.000 endorsed her, and a lot of that seems to be 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:40.240 shut off. There are certainly some sort of significant senior 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:44.640 voices who've not endorsed her, not least former President Barack Obaba, 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:46.640 but there does seem to be a head of steam 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:49.400 around app the sort of wild cards for the next 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:52.040 few weeks, if you think about the sort of barely 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:57.600 four weeks till the Democrat convention in Chicago. There is 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:01.360 a lot of talk on the Republican side about legal challenges. 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:04.680 The Heritage Foundation that the conservative think tank has been 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:08.680 saying for a few days that there will be grassroots 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.800 challenged to removing Biden from the ticket. Very hard to 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:14.920 see how those get very far, given that he's not 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:19.240 the formal nominee yet in any state, but that doesn't 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:21.800 mean that they won't happen and maybe delay things a bit. 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.520 I think more concerning, perhaps for the Democrats, will be 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:30.880 the worry that the sort of continued pressure and accusations 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:36.320 from the Republican side about how long President Biden's condition 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:39.120 was kept from the public and who is implicated in that, 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:43.160 not least Vice President Kamala Harris, and whether or not 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.159 you know, questions about whether President Biden should stay as 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:51.400 president until November or indeed January, if he is unfit 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:53.960 as he appears to be. Do you think either of 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:54.800 those have legs. 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.080 I think the Republicans have two very powerful arguments to make. 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.640 One is the argument that if he's not capable of 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:04.279 running for the job, he shouldn't be doing it now. 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:06.760 And the second is that this is a sort of 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:11.279 establishment stitch up which is excluding ordinary people and is 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:13.480 a sort of an elite conspiracy. And we have, you know, 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:16.600 back the Republican Party is now a populist party, and 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.560 that's a very good populist case to make. I don't 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:23.400 think it will get anywhere in terms of the legal challenges. 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:25.880 I think the legal challenge cites me is nonsense. I mean, 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:29.480 a candidate has the freedom to withdraw their name, and 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:31.680 you know they're part of a ticket, and the funds 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:33.600 should go to the other part of that ticket. That 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.880 strikes me it's a very difficult thing to challenge. I 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.880 think she's now the inevitable candidate. I don't think the 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:42.960 Democratic Party can say to a black woman who has 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:46.560 been serving as vice president, we don't want you to run. However, 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:48.680 I think she's a weak candidate. She she shouldn't have 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:52.520 been the vice president for an aging, aging president. She's 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:56.040 not very ocular, she's not got a very substantial political career. 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:59.760 She's not done very much as vice president. Her team's 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:03.479 around her seemed to disappear or fall out. She's not 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:06.880 really good at managing people. She's not an impressive debater. 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.240 She may surprise us all, but when she ran for 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:13.040 president in her own right, it was a disaster. 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:15.920 Okay. So the pushback to that, which obviously we've heard 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:17.600 more of in the last few weeks as a lot 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:21.000 of Democrats have sort of thought about the implications of 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:25.680 going further, going beyond Carmala Harris. One is, even if 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:28.719 we think on paper that they're a better candidate scretch 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:32.200 on Whitma, for example, or Gavin Newsom, is the incremental 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:38.480 benefit of those lesser known but fresh faces large enough 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:41.640 to justify the risk of sort of chaos on the 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:43.800 path to getting that. I think the answer that's probably now. 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:45.880 I think there's also if you look back at the 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:50.719 sort of Carmela's underrated argument says, if you go back 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:54.680 to that campaign, that was indeed a very weak campaign 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.320 and she didn't get very far in the primaries. Remember 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:01.159 that the twenty twenty election campaign was a very peculiar one. 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.760 It was dominated by not least COVID, but black lives matter, 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:09.640 and she had this reputation as a prosecutor who'd been 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:14.920 very tough on crime, was controversial in California as a 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:18.000 prosecutor in that feverish environment, in that kind of anti 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.600 police environment, and so she was in a peculiarly kind 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:24.680 of weak old position as an African American in that 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:28.200 in that she never quite hit her stride in that campaign. 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:30.320 The other argument is she's got a lot better. You know, 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:33.600 people say she's learnt in office. She was inexperience then, 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.000 so she's become a more seasoned campaigner. 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.760 Sure, but she's had sometimes as vice president, and as 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:43.080 vice president a record is quite dubious. She's not very articulate, 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:49.360 she's repeatedly you know, underperformed in public fora and she's 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:51.360 not very good at running things. You know, her staff 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:55.200 seemed sort of disappeared like the snow on a hot 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:55.840 summer's day. 0:07:55.960 --> 0:08:00.600 It's a pretty awful job. It's a it is awful dog. 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:04.360 But you know, Dick Cheney did it in where that 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:06.920 made a big made a big difference. It is possible 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.160 to do it well, particularly if your president is somebody 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:14.120 who is somewhat tiring in the job. However, you know, 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:16.840 to say something positive about her. At the moment, she's 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.400 two points I think behind in polls for what they're 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.560 worth at the moment. In Donald Trump she has she 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:27.040 could improve that by a lot as the party unites 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.880 behind her and starts talking about her. Her merits, she 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:34.200 does mobilize important demographics for the party and above all, 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:37.679 it looked as though this election was going to be 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:42.480 a referendum on Joe Biden and his various failures. Now 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:45.679 it's much more a referendum on Donald Trump. You know, 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:48.560 she she is not the person in the spotlight. Trump 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.480 will be the person in the spotlight. He will be 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.439 the galvanizing figure, and he has a lot of weaknesses. 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:56.760 There's no doubt about that that she will be able 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:57.400 to exploit. 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.400 She is quite strong and has been campaign on the 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:03.079 abortion issue and with jd. Vance, he's in favor of 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:08.440 abolishing abortion and in Trump's vice presidential nominee has also 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:13.600 said previously been negative about even IVF, so that she 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:15.840 could be a very strong campaigner against that if he 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.800 continues to have that role. I think I know a 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:21.560 very big argument against her and a challenge she will 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:27.000 have is is the close connection to the Biden administration 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.160 if in so far as the Biden administration has not 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.120 made a strong economic case to the electorate, particularly in 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:39.120 swing states where economics perhaps features more heavily than things 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:44.320 like abortion or indeed sort of democraphea of democracy with president. 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.920 With a President Trump coming back in, she will have 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.600 the same problems that Biden had in making that it 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.320 proving to people that things have been better than they thought. 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:57.679 Absolutely, the mood at the moment is anti incumbent right 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.000 across the world's We've seen again and again in Britain, 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:03.400 in India, to some extent in France. And she has 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:05.800 the problem not only of being tied to the incumbent, 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.440 but also as being tied to what the Republicans would 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.680 no doubt called the cover up. You know, she was 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.520 there saying he's perfectly all right, He's as sharp as 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.760 attack he can. He can dance and sing and do 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:19.400 and do everything imaginable. Well, it now seems that he's 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:25.160 had a problem with cognitive awareness and with physical fitness, 0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:27.560 and that cover up will be something that Republicans will 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:31.080 keep going on about. Biden I think had no chance 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:33.600 of winning. She certainly has a significant chance of winning, 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.760 but I'd still put the betting on Trump rather than her. 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.080 And I just wanted to add one more thing which 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:42.959 worries me, and that is this, so long as the 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:47.600 Europeans thought that Trump was pretty bound to win, they 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:50.560 were really getting their act together in terms of taking 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:54.120 a more responsible role in funding NATO, in PROD, in 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:58.319 funding their own defense, in acting as though the world's 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.840 you know, as though they were responsible for the stage 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:04.240 of the world. Now I'm worried that they'll say, well, 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:08.120 Trump might well not win. Camala may may may may 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.959 easily not easily win, but may may well come out 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.880 on Trump on top of the old world may be preserved. 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.160 They might They like to do that. They like to delay, 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:19.800 and they may take this as an excuse to delay 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.680 on important things light defense spending, and I think that 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.280 would be a very bad thing. They should act as 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.720 though Trump is a certainty, even if he isn't, partly 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.040 because I think he's more likely than not, Partly because 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:34.839 the MAGA straining in Republicanism is important in Congress it 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.000 will remain important, But partly because I think that the 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:40.839 Democratic Party cannot be relied on to be the sort 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:46.000 of internationalist party that it was perhaps perhaps traditionally, the 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:50.040 protectionist wing is very strong. Biden pushed through quite a 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:54.360 lot of protectionists measures, tariffs and things like that. The 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:58.840 shift away from taking responsibility for Europe's defense goes back 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:03.480 to to to Obama in some ways, the pivots to 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:06.520 as things like that, this is a more isolationist country, 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:10.920 whoever is on top. Obviously Trump would be a massive 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.520 game changing, but we cannot rely on America for our 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.960 defense anymore. Europe needs to take a more responsible role, 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:19.240 and in some ways rightly so. 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:21.880 Well, that is a very good note of warning from 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:25.520 you to Europe, which I hope Europe will listen to. 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.000 They certainly should. I would have a bit of a 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.400 sort of related warning to the sort of Trump traders. 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:33.400 You know that we've had a lot in the last 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:35.960 few weeks, in particularly as it's become apparently more and 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:40.600 more inevitable, certainly more higher probability that President Trump would 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:45.000 be re elected. We would have we've seen this kind 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:48.079 of optimism in the market. The market reaction since Biden 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:51.520 said he wouldn't run has been muted, I think probably 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:54.440 because as you suggest, that President Trump winning is still 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:58.200 the most likely option if you just look at the world, 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:00.760 but also if you look at the betting of But 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.720 I think there should also be a sort of growing 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:05.199 understanding that there has to be a ceiling to this 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:10.080 bill market, even nor even especially with Donald Trump, because 0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:14.079 you look at what his tariff policies mean for inflation, 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:18.840 what his approach to renewing his very expensive tax cuts 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:23.240 means for US borrowing, certainly, what all of that means 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.520 for further interest rate cuts. If you think that a 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:28.080 large part of the Trump, large part of the enthusiasm 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.760 around the equity market has been around the prospect of 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.720 money getting cheaper again. That's not going to happen in 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:37.080 a Trump administration where inflations are going up again. The 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:40.400 only beneficiary of all that, arguably, which is possibly the 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:44.520 strongest Trump trade, is a stronger dollar. But that's precisely 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.440 what neither Trump nor especially JD. Vance has said he 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:49.800 would favor. He thinks that it's been a terrible cost 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.880 to the nation to have had the currency sort of 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.000 over strong over these years. So I think all of 0:13:56.040 --> 0:14:00.720 that ought to play into market considerations, business can considerations, 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.640 and I know it plays into donor considerations over the 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.120 next few weeks, and that's something that we want to 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.880 get into a bit more with our sister podcast, The 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:15.640 Big Take in DC. Gregory Corte and Laura Davison are 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:18.440 two journalists who cover money and politics for Bloomberg, and 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:22.480 they have done a special episode out today trying to 0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.120 answer the question of how much Harris's campaign could cost, 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.080 what kind of edge she has in fundraising, and how 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:32.920 Democratic donors are reacting to the news. We hope you 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.320 enjoy that. Thank you for joining me, Adrid, giving your 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:36.840 wisdom and listen on. 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.560 After mounting pressure from members of Joe Biden's own party 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.240 in Congress, and finally reportedly from his former running mate 0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:00.280 and former President Barack Obama, Biden released a state meant 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.520 saying he'd drop out of the twenty twenty four US 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:04.480 presidential race. 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:09.160 Suddenly, on a Sunday afternoon, the dam broke that. 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.640 Damn broke Via tweet, I called up Gregory Cordy, a 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.320 White House and Politics reporter, to get his reaction to 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:15.720 the news. 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.200 The decision isn't a surprise, but the sudden timing of. 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:21.360 It was, and Sarah, we got an answer to that 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:25.720 big question, would Biden drop out? But that only raised 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:26.520 more questions. 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.720 In addition to the decision not to run for reelection, 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.080 there are a lot of decisions baked in that decision. 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.240 Does he tap an air apparent? Does he endorse Kamala Harris? 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.480 Who would donors back to replace him? Where does the 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.440 Democratic Party go from here? 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:45.040 And not long after his first announcement, Biden tweeted an 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.200 endorsement of Harris. But that endorsement now kicks off an 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.520 entirely new phase of the election, which means there are 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:52.840 even more unknowns. 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:57.120 The Democratic National Convention is just one month away. Voters 0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:59.480 will go to the polls in less than four months. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.320 Even if Harris clinges the nomination in Chicago in August, 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:06.640 is there time for her to fundraise and advertise herself 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:09.720 to the American people? How much money does a candidate 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:13.120 really need to campaign successfully if they're taking over the 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:14.480 ticket so late in the year. 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:16.840 Well, my first thoughts was it's gonna be a long 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.320 three or four months. Now. 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:23.400 This is the big take from Bloomberg News. 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.160 I'm David Gerratt and I'm Sarah Holder. Today on the show, 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:30.200 I dig into these questions with Gregory and with Money 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:39.240 and Politics editor Laura Davison. As of Sunday evening, just 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:43.160 hours after President Biden's announcement, not much was known about 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.000 how he made the decision and how he thought about 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.640 timing its release. I asked Gregory Cordy and Laura Davison 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:50.160 about that. 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.360 It's hard to say because he kept counsel only with 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.840 a very small inner circle of aids on this. We're 0:16:56.960 --> 0:17:01.840 getting reporting that even his own campaigns was blindsided by 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.399 this announcement. He may have been waiting until after the 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:09.000 Republican Convention for things to settle. He was in seclusion 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.960 for the past few days recovering from a COVID infection, 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:15.000 so he may have been waiting to see if he 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:16.600 could ride that out and come back. 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:19.320 But it's really important to note that in the past, 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.360 you know, essentially three weeks since the debate that really 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:25.840 sparked all these concerns, Democratic donors have basically said, look, 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:28.840 we are freezing contributions to your campaign. There have been 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:30.960 a handful of donors we've come out and said I'm 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:33.400 still with the president, but most folks said, look, we're 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:35.760 not going to throw good money after bad. We want 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.320 this guy out, and our leverage is donors is money. 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.040 So you saw, you know, a bunch of different efforts. 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:44.000 You know, some donors start different super PACs that they said, 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.199 would you know, start collecting money that would go to 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.360 whoever the eventual new nominee is. And this all came 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.040 at a very critical moment when Trump had a ton 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.560 of new donor support. You know, folks like Elon Musk 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:58.359 and Timothy Mellon were coming in with really large donations, 0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:00.760 and they realized that, look, this is not a tenable 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:02.160 situation here, this. 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:06.159 Moment feels unprecedented, and people are already reacting all around 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.800 the world. How do you expect markets to react? 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:11.399 We do know that in the past couple weeks, as 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.359 Trump has seemingly grown stronger in his bid, that markets 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.520 has started to price a Trump win in. So that 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:20.480 looks like, you know, a potential increase in tariffs, particularly 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:23.399 targeted Chinese goods, but all sorts of goods. Markets are 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:26.280 also anticipating a pretty large tax cut if it's Trump. 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:30.240 Anytime there is a seismic shift in what US leadership 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:31.920 looks like, there will be market reactions. 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.119 So as part of his announcement, Biden endorsed Kamala Harris 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.400 as the Democratic Party nominee. Does it mean Biden's campaign 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:42.040 is shutting down immediately and Harris's is now jumping into action. 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:43.720 What happens next, Gregory? 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:47.480 Presumably if Biden has his way and Vice President Harris 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.000 has hers, she will take now the top spot of 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.240 that ticket and recommend to the delegates at the convention 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:56.840 next month who her choice for vice president would be 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.560 her running mate. She would get to keep that sizeable 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:03.199 war chat that Biden has built, but he started to 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.119 burn through cash in the past month or so and 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:09.919 it's not quite as formidable as they would like. So 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:13.240 the first order of business is to rebuild that war chest, 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:17.199 get some big donors on board through super packs, and 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:20.240 then it will be up to the Vice president, if 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.240 it is her as a nominee, to decide how she 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.960 wants to structure her campaign. But there's really not a 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:28.920 whole lot of time right to completely blow up the campaign. 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:32.200 It already has field offices, it's already bought a lot 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:34.520 of ad time. That strategy is going to have to 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:36.640 change very quickly, of course, now that there's a new 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:38.440 Canada the top of the ticket, so a lot of 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:40.040 these things we're going to just have to see in 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.199 the coming days. How that all comes to pass. 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.440 Just how much money is currently in the Biden campaign 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:48.720 coffers compared to Trump. 0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:51.360 So just on the raw dollar total, they're not too 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.320 far apart. So the Biden campaign has ninety six million dollars. 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:56.800 The Trump campaign has one hundred and twenty eight million dollars. 0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.960 So Trump is ahead, not a massive amount. The thing 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:03.560 think that's the real differentiator here is that Biden's fundraising 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:05.679 has totally fallen off a cliff. The other thing is 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:08.159 just how much they're spending. In the month of June. 0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:10.480 This is even you know, before a lot of the 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.960 debate stuff started percolating, Democrats spent ninety three percent of 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:16.280 the money that they brought in compared to Trump, who 0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:18.520 was spending less than half. So just the burn rate, 0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:20.000 there is a massive difference. 0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:23.840 The Trump forces have been spending next to nothing. They 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:27.240 have a super pac that spent money in Pennsylvania, Georgia 0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:30.880 and now has just gone into Arizona. But they've been 0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:34.119 marshaling their resources, really sort of hoarding their cash, while 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.040 Biden has gotten out early. All that money. Now, I 0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:39.840 don't want to say it's wasted money, because it helped 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.200 perhaps the Democratic brand, but it was money that was 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:46.720 spent to promote Biden. And now Democrats have to figure 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:48.760 out a new branding, a new message now that the 0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:50.080 nominee will be somebody else. 0:20:50.359 --> 0:20:53.080 And Laura, how is the Trump camp reacting to this news. 0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:55.960 There's a couple different schools of thought within the Trump campaign. 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:58.960 Just last night he had a rally in Michigan where 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:01.000 he talked about some of the array that was happening 0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:03.359 with Democrats. Of course, this was before Biden announced that 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:05.920 he would be dropping out. But Trump, at the top 0:21:05.960 --> 0:21:08.600 of his rally essentially like pulled the crowd and said, 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:11.000 you know, basically, who do you want to be? You 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:12.600 know our opponent. Do you want it to be Joe Biden? 0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:14.760 Do you want it to be Kamala Harris? And so 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:17.680 the crowd overwhelmingly, by a show of voices, indicated that 0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:20.040 they wanted Biden to be the nominee. You know, a 0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:22.760 clear sign that at least, you know, Trump supporters think 0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:26.479 that he is an easier candidate to be. However, we 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:29.280 know that the Trump campaign for weeks has been preparing 0:21:29.320 --> 0:21:31.159 that it may be Kamala or it may be someone 0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:33.560 else in the race that they're running against So they've 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:34.760 started working on messaging. 0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:37.920 What are we hearing about how Democratic donors are reacting 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:42.480 to Biden's announcement and whether they'll rally behind Kamala Harris 0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:44.360 versus someone else. 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.000