1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 2: Welcome to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. This year, 3 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 2: voters around the world have the ability to move markets, countries, 4 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: and economies like never before, so we created this series 5 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 2: to help you make sense of it all. I'm Stephanie Flanders. 6 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 3: And I'm Adrian Woodridge. 7 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: And as I know we all know by now, President 8 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 2: Joe Biden has confirmed he will not seek nomination for 9 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four presidential campaign. That statement was released 10 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 2: on Sunday afternoon US Time, led to an outpouring of 11 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: respect and thanks to him for making this decision, which 12 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 2: an awful lot of people have been begging him to 13 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: make for several weeks since that terrible performance in the debate. 14 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: Going to try, Adrian to avoid telling people loads of 15 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: things that they already know, but we did think we 16 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 2: should focus this episode on this major change in the 17 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: US presidential race and start to think about some of 18 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 2: what might happen next. But your first thoughts on what 19 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: happened on Sunday and the path forward. 20 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 3: Well, I think the crowning of Joe Biden has sort 21 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: of Cincinnatus as this great figure who has sacrificed himself 22 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 3: for on his sword for the good of the republic. 23 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 3: Is rather annoying, I must say, because he fought as 24 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 3: long as he could and as hard as he had 25 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 3: to be virtually leave it out of the position. But 26 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 3: he was inevitable. It was just a matter of time. 27 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 3: And it does seem as though the script is playing 28 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: itself out in a fairly controlled way, in the sense 29 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 3: that Kamala Harris will be the nominee in as something 30 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 3: very strange or very unpredictable happens, and the Democratic Party 31 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 3: will unite behind her. And she does look on paper 32 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 3: at least like quite strong candidate, partly because she's a woman, 33 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 3: partly because he's ethnic minority, partly because he's young. She's 34 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 3: fifty nine against a seventy year old seventy eight year 35 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 3: old Trump. So it'll be the Democrats playing the age card, 36 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 3: which that the Republicans have been playing, and partly because 37 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 3: the Democratic Party does sort of have a spring in 38 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 3: except at the moment the money is pouring in. There's 39 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 3: a lot of good will towards her, and the sense 40 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:30,519 Speaker 3: that they looked at defeat and decided that victory was 41 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:31,119 Speaker 3: a better. 42 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: Option, and We're going to say more about the situation 43 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 2: with donors a bit later on. It were certainly stunning. 44 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 2: There was just under fifty million dollars in grassroots do 45 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,839 Speaker 2: nation in the less than twenty four hours since Joe 46 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 2: Biden made that statement, and we know that there had 47 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: been a very much, very little money coming in over 48 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 2: the last few weeks as we saw this debate over 49 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: his performance play out. The interesting thing, though, I mean, 50 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 2: when a lot of the big donor I had heard 51 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 2: saying over the last few weeks that they were nervous 52 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 2: about the Carmela stage of the process, that they quite 53 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 2: wanted to get to an open process. They wanted to 54 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 2: get to those exciting, new, shiny candidates who had less 55 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,839 Speaker 2: of the baggage of the Biden administration hanging off them. 56 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:20,920 Speaker 2: You know, it now seems you know a lot of 57 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: those candidates that get talked about, whether it's Gavin Newsom 58 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: or the Michigan governor Gritch and Whitmer immediately said that 59 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 2: they were came out in support of Carmela when Biden 60 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 2: endorsed her, and a lot of that seems to be 61 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 2: shut off. There are certainly some sort of significant senior 62 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 2: voices who've not endorsed her, not least former President Barack Obaba, 63 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: but there does seem to be a head of steam 64 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 2: around app the sort of wild cards for the next 65 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 2: few weeks, if you think about the sort of barely 66 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 2: four weeks till the Democrat convention in Chicago. There is 67 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 2: a lot of talk on the Republican side about legal challenges. 68 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: The Heritage Foundation that the conservative think tank has been 69 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: saying for a few days that there will be grassroots 70 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: challenged to removing Biden from the ticket. Very hard to 71 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 2: see how those get very far, given that he's not 72 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 2: the formal nominee yet in any state, but that doesn't 73 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: mean that they won't happen and maybe delay things a bit. 74 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 2: I think more concerning, perhaps for the Democrats, will be 75 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 2: the worry that the sort of continued pressure and accusations 76 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: from the Republican side about how long President Biden's condition 77 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: was kept from the public and who is implicated in that, 78 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 2: not least Vice President Kamala Harris, and whether or not 79 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 2: you know, questions about whether President Biden should stay as 80 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 2: president until November or indeed January, if he is unfit 81 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 2: as he appears to be. Do you think either of 82 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 2: those have legs. 83 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 3: I think the Republicans have two very powerful arguments to make. 84 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 3: One is the argument that if he's not capable of 85 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 3: running for the job, he shouldn't be doing it now. 86 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 3: And the second is that this is a sort of 87 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 3: establishment stitch up which is excluding ordinary people and is 88 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 3: a sort of an elite conspiracy. And we have, you know, 89 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 3: back the Republican Party is now a populist party, and 90 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 3: that's a very good populist case to make. I don't 91 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 3: think it will get anywhere in terms of the legal challenges. 92 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: I think the legal challenge cites me is nonsense. I mean, 93 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 3: a candidate has the freedom to withdraw their name, and 94 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 3: you know they're part of a ticket, and the funds 95 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 3: should go to the other part of that ticket. That 96 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 3: strikes me it's a very difficult thing to challenge. I 97 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: think she's now the inevitable candidate. I don't think the 98 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 3: Democratic Party can say to a black woman who has 99 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 3: been serving as vice president, we don't want you to run. However, 100 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: I think she's a weak candidate. She she shouldn't have 101 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: been the vice president for an aging, aging president. She's 102 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 3: not very ocular, she's not got a very substantial political career. 103 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 3: She's not done very much as vice president. Her team's 104 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 3: around her seemed to disappear or fall out. She's not 105 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 3: really good at managing people. She's not an impressive debater. 106 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 3: She may surprise us all, but when she ran for 107 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 3: president in her own right, it was a disaster. 108 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 2: Okay. So the pushback to that, which obviously we've heard 109 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 2: more of in the last few weeks as a lot 110 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 2: of Democrats have sort of thought about the implications of 111 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 2: going further, going beyond Carmala Harris. One is, even if 112 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 2: we think on paper that they're a better candidate scretch 113 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 2: on Whitma, for example, or Gavin Newsom, is the incremental 114 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 2: benefit of those lesser known but fresh faces large enough 115 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 2: to justify the risk of sort of chaos on the 116 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: path to getting that. I think the answer that's probably now. 117 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 2: I think there's also if you look back at the 118 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 2: sort of Carmela's underrated argument says, if you go back 119 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 2: to that campaign, that was indeed a very weak campaign 120 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 2: and she didn't get very far in the primaries. Remember 121 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 2: that the twenty twenty election campaign was a very peculiar one. 122 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 2: It was dominated by not least COVID, but black lives matter, 123 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 2: and she had this reputation as a prosecutor who'd been 124 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 2: very tough on crime, was controversial in California as a 125 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 2: prosecutor in that feverish environment, in that kind of anti 126 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 2: police environment, and so she was in a peculiarly kind 127 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 2: of weak old position as an African American in that 128 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 2: in that she never quite hit her stride in that campaign. 129 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: The other argument is she's got a lot better. You know, 130 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 2: people say she's learnt in office. She was inexperience then, 131 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 2: so she's become a more seasoned campaigner. 132 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 3: Sure, but she's had sometimes as vice president, and as 133 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 3: vice president a record is quite dubious. She's not very articulate, 134 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 3: she's repeatedly you know, underperformed in public fora and she's 135 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 3: not very good at running things. You know, her staff 136 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 3: seemed sort of disappeared like the snow on a hot 137 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 3: summer's day. 138 00:07:55,960 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 2: It's a pretty awful job. It's a it is awful dog. 139 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 3: But you know, Dick Cheney did it in where that 140 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 3: made a big made a big difference. It is possible 141 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 3: to do it well, particularly if your president is somebody 142 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: who is somewhat tiring in the job. However, you know, 143 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 3: to say something positive about her. At the moment, she's 144 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 3: two points I think behind in polls for what they're 145 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 3: worth at the moment. In Donald Trump she has she 146 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 3: could improve that by a lot as the party unites 147 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 3: behind her and starts talking about her. Her merits, she 148 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 3: does mobilize important demographics for the party and above all, 149 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 3: it looked as though this election was going to be 150 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 3: a referendum on Joe Biden and his various failures. Now 151 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 3: it's much more a referendum on Donald Trump. You know, 152 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 3: she she is not the person in the spotlight. Trump 153 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 3: will be the person in the spotlight. He will be 154 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 3: the galvanizing figure, and he has a lot of weaknesses. 155 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 3: There's no doubt about that that she will be able 156 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 3: to exploit. 157 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 2: She is quite strong and has been campaign on the 158 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 2: abortion issue and with jd. Vance, he's in favor of 159 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 2: abolishing abortion and in Trump's vice presidential nominee has also 160 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 2: said previously been negative about even IVF, so that she 161 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 2: could be a very strong campaigner against that if he 162 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 2: continues to have that role. I think I know a 163 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 2: very big argument against her and a challenge she will 164 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 2: have is is the close connection to the Biden administration 165 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 2: if in so far as the Biden administration has not 166 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 2: made a strong economic case to the electorate, particularly in 167 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 2: swing states where economics perhaps features more heavily than things 168 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 2: like abortion or indeed sort of democraphea of democracy with president. 169 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 2: With a President Trump coming back in, she will have 170 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 2: the same problems that Biden had in making that it 171 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: proving to people that things have been better than they thought. 172 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 3: Absolutely, the mood at the moment is anti incumbent right 173 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 3: across the world's We've seen again and again in Britain, 174 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 3: in India, to some extent in France. And she has 175 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 3: the problem not only of being tied to the incumbent, 176 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 3: but also as being tied to what the Republicans would 177 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 3: no doubt called the cover up. You know, she was 178 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 3: there saying he's perfectly all right, He's as sharp as 179 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 3: attack he can. He can dance and sing and do 180 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 3: and do everything imaginable. Well, it now seems that he's 181 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 3: had a problem with cognitive awareness and with physical fitness, 182 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 3: and that cover up will be something that Republicans will 183 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 3: keep going on about. Biden I think had no chance 184 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 3: of winning. She certainly has a significant chance of winning, 185 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 3: but I'd still put the betting on Trump rather than her. 186 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 3: And I just wanted to add one more thing which 187 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,959 Speaker 3: worries me, and that is this, so long as the 188 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 3: Europeans thought that Trump was pretty bound to win, they 189 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 3: were really getting their act together in terms of taking 190 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 3: a more responsible role in funding NATO, in PROD, in 191 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,319 Speaker 3: funding their own defense, in acting as though the world's 192 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 3: you know, as though they were responsible for the stage 193 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 3: of the world. Now I'm worried that they'll say, well, 194 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 3: Trump might well not win. Camala may may may may 195 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 3: easily not easily win, but may may well come out 196 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 3: on Trump on top of the old world may be preserved. 197 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 3: They might They like to do that. They like to delay, 198 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: and they may take this as an excuse to delay 199 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 3: on important things light defense spending, and I think that 200 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 3: would be a very bad thing. They should act as 201 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 3: though Trump is a certainty, even if he isn't, partly 202 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 3: because I think he's more likely than not, Partly because 203 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 3: the MAGA straining in Republicanism is important in Congress it 204 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 3: will remain important, But partly because I think that the 205 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 3: Democratic Party cannot be relied on to be the sort 206 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 3: of internationalist party that it was perhaps perhaps traditionally, the 207 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 3: protectionist wing is very strong. Biden pushed through quite a 208 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 3: lot of protectionists measures, tariffs and things like that. The 209 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 3: shift away from taking responsibility for Europe's defense goes back 210 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: to to to Obama in some ways, the pivots to 211 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 3: as things like that, this is a more isolationist country, 212 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 3: whoever is on top. Obviously Trump would be a massive 213 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 3: game changing, but we cannot rely on America for our 214 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 3: defense anymore. Europe needs to take a more responsible role, 215 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 3: and in some ways rightly so. 216 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 2: Well, that is a very good note of warning from 217 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: you to Europe, which I hope Europe will listen to. 218 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: They certainly should. I would have a bit of a 219 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 2: sort of related warning to the sort of Trump traders. 220 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 2: You know that we've had a lot in the last 221 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 2: few weeks, in particularly as it's become apparently more and 222 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: more inevitable, certainly more higher probability that President Trump would 223 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 2: be re elected. We would have we've seen this kind 224 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,079 Speaker 2: of optimism in the market. The market reaction since Biden 225 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 2: said he wouldn't run has been muted, I think probably 226 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 2: because as you suggest, that President Trump winning is still 227 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 2: the most likely option if you just look at the world, 228 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 2: but also if you look at the betting of But 229 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: I think there should also be a sort of growing 230 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 2: understanding that there has to be a ceiling to this 231 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 2: bill market, even nor even especially with Donald Trump, because 232 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 2: you look at what his tariff policies mean for inflation, 233 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 2: what his approach to renewing his very expensive tax cuts 234 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 2: means for US borrowing, certainly, what all of that means 235 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 2: for further interest rate cuts. If you think that a 236 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 2: large part of the Trump, large part of the enthusiasm 237 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 2: around the equity market has been around the prospect of 238 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 2: money getting cheaper again. That's not going to happen in 239 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 2: a Trump administration where inflations are going up again. The 240 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 2: only beneficiary of all that, arguably, which is possibly the 241 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 2: strongest Trump trade, is a stronger dollar. But that's precisely 242 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 2: what neither Trump nor especially JD. Vance has said he 243 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 2: would favor. He thinks that it's been a terrible cost 244 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 2: to the nation to have had the currency sort of 245 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 2: over strong over these years. So I think all of 246 00:13:56,040 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 2: that ought to play into market considerations, business can considerations, 247 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 2: and I know it plays into donor considerations over the 248 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 2: next few weeks, and that's something that we want to 249 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 2: get into a bit more with our sister podcast, The 250 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 2: Big Take in DC. Gregory Corte and Laura Davison are 251 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 2: two journalists who cover money and politics for Bloomberg, and 252 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 2: they have done a special episode out today trying to 253 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 2: answer the question of how much Harris's campaign could cost, 254 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 2: what kind of edge she has in fundraising, and how 255 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 2: Democratic donors are reacting to the news. We hope you 256 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 2: enjoy that. Thank you for joining me, Adrid, giving your 257 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: wisdom and listen on. 258 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 4: After mounting pressure from members of Joe Biden's own party 259 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 4: in Congress, and finally reportedly from his former running mate 260 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 4: and former President Barack Obama, Biden released a state meant 261 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 4: saying he'd drop out of the twenty twenty four US 262 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 4: presidential race. 263 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 5: Suddenly, on a Sunday afternoon, the dam broke that. 264 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 4: Damn broke Via tweet, I called up Gregory Cordy, a 265 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 4: White House and Politics reporter, to get his reaction to 266 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 4: the news. 267 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 5: The decision isn't a surprise, but the sudden timing of. 268 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 6: It was, and Sarah, we got an answer to that 269 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 6: big question, would Biden drop out? But that only raised 270 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 6: more questions. 271 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 5: In addition to the decision not to run for reelection, 272 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 5: there are a lot of decisions baked in that decision. 273 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 5: Does he tap an air apparent? Does he endorse Kamala Harris? 274 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 4: Who would donors back to replace him? Where does the 275 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 4: Democratic Party go from here? 276 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 6: And not long after his first announcement, Biden tweeted an 277 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 6: endorsement of Harris. But that endorsement now kicks off an 278 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 6: entirely new phase of the election, which means there are 279 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 6: even more unknowns. 280 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 4: The Democratic National Convention is just one month away. Voters 281 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 4: will go to the polls in less than four months. 282 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 4: Even if Harris clinges the nomination in Chicago in August, 283 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 4: is there time for her to fundraise and advertise herself 284 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 4: to the American people? How much money does a candidate 285 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 4: really need to campaign successfully if they're taking over the 286 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 4: ticket so late in the year. 287 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 5: Well, my first thoughts was it's gonna be a long 288 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 5: three or four months. Now. 289 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 6: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. 290 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 4: I'm David Gerratt and I'm Sarah Holder. Today on the show, 291 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 4: I dig into these questions with Gregory and with Money 292 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 4: and Politics editor Laura Davison. As of Sunday evening, just 293 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 4: hours after President Biden's announcement, not much was known about 294 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 4: how he made the decision and how he thought about 295 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 4: timing its release. I asked Gregory Cordy and Laura Davison 296 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 4: about that. 297 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 5: It's hard to say because he kept counsel only with 298 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 5: a very small inner circle of aids on this. We're 299 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 5: getting reporting that even his own campaigns was blindsided by 300 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 5: this announcement. He may have been waiting until after the 301 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 5: Republican Convention for things to settle. He was in seclusion 302 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 5: for the past few days recovering from a COVID infection, 303 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 5: so he may have been waiting to see if he 304 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 5: could ride that out and come back. 305 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 7: But it's really important to note that in the past, 306 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 7: you know, essentially three weeks since the debate that really 307 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 7: sparked all these concerns, Democratic donors have basically said, look, 308 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 7: we are freezing contributions to your campaign. There have been 309 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 7: a handful of donors we've come out and said I'm 310 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 7: still with the president, but most folks said, look, we're 311 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 7: not going to throw good money after bad. We want 312 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 7: this guy out, and our leverage is donors is money. 313 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 7: So you saw, you know, a bunch of different efforts. 314 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 7: You know, some donors start different super PACs that they said, 315 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,199 Speaker 7: would you know, start collecting money that would go to 316 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 7: whoever the eventual new nominee is. And this all came 317 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 7: at a very critical moment when Trump had a ton 318 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 7: of new donor support. You know, folks like Elon Musk 319 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 7: and Timothy Mellon were coming in with really large donations, 320 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 7: and they realized that, look, this is not a tenable 321 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 7: situation here, this. 322 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 4: Moment feels unprecedented, and people are already reacting all around 323 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 4: the world. How do you expect markets to react? 324 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 7: We do know that in the past couple weeks, as 325 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 7: Trump has seemingly grown stronger in his bid, that markets 326 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 7: has started to price a Trump win in. So that 327 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 7: looks like, you know, a potential increase in tariffs, particularly 328 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 7: targeted Chinese goods, but all sorts of goods. Markets are 329 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 7: also anticipating a pretty large tax cut if it's Trump. 330 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 7: Anytime there is a seismic shift in what US leadership 331 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 7: looks like, there will be market reactions. 332 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 4: So as part of his announcement, Biden endorsed Kamala Harris 333 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 4: as the Democratic Party nominee. Does it mean Biden's campaign 334 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 4: is shutting down immediately and Harris's is now jumping into action. 335 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 4: What happens next, Gregory? 336 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 5: Presumably if Biden has his way and Vice President Harris 337 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 5: has hers, she will take now the top spot of 338 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 5: that ticket and recommend to the delegates at the convention 339 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 5: next month who her choice for vice president would be 340 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 5: her running mate. She would get to keep that sizeable 341 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 5: war chat that Biden has built, but he started to 342 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 5: burn through cash in the past month or so and 343 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 5: it's not quite as formidable as they would like. So 344 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 5: the first order of business is to rebuild that war chest, 345 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 5: get some big donors on board through super packs, and 346 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 5: then it will be up to the Vice president, if 347 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 5: it is her as a nominee, to decide how she 348 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 5: wants to structure her campaign. But there's really not a 349 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 5: whole lot of time right to completely blow up the campaign. 350 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 5: It already has field offices, it's already bought a lot 351 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 5: of ad time. That strategy is going to have to 352 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 5: change very quickly, of course, now that there's a new 353 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 5: Canada the top of the ticket, so a lot of 354 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 5: these things we're going to just have to see in 355 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 5: the coming days. How that all comes to pass. 356 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 4: Just how much money is currently in the Biden campaign 357 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 4: coffers compared to Trump. 358 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,360 Speaker 7: So just on the raw dollar total, they're not too 359 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 7: far apart. So the Biden campaign has ninety six million dollars. 360 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 7: The Trump campaign has one hundred and twenty eight million dollars. 361 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 7: So Trump is ahead, not a massive amount. The thing 362 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 7: think that's the real differentiator here is that Biden's fundraising 363 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 7: has totally fallen off a cliff. The other thing is 364 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 7: just how much they're spending. In the month of June. 365 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 7: This is even you know, before a lot of the 366 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 7: debate stuff started percolating, Democrats spent ninety three percent of 367 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 7: the money that they brought in compared to Trump, who 368 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 7: was spending less than half. So just the burn rate, 369 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 7: there is a massive difference. 370 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 5: The Trump forces have been spending next to nothing. They 371 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 5: have a super pac that spent money in Pennsylvania, Georgia 372 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 5: and now has just gone into Arizona. But they've been 373 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 5: marshaling their resources, really sort of hoarding their cash, while 374 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 5: Biden has gotten out early. All that money. Now, I 375 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 5: don't want to say it's wasted money, because it helped 376 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 5: perhaps the Democratic brand, but it was money that was 377 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 5: spent to promote Biden. And now Democrats have to figure 378 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 5: out a new branding, a new message now that the 379 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 5: nominee will be somebody else. 380 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 4: And Laura, how is the Trump camp reacting to this news. 381 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 7: There's a couple different schools of thought within the Trump campaign. 382 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 7: Just last night he had a rally in Michigan where 383 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 7: he talked about some of the array that was happening 384 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 7: with Democrats. Of course, this was before Biden announced that 385 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 7: he would be dropping out. But Trump, at the top 386 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 7: of his rally essentially like pulled the crowd and said, 387 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 7: you know, basically, who do you want to be? You 388 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 7: know our opponent. Do you want it to be Joe Biden? 389 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 7: Do you want it to be Kamala Harris? And so 390 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 7: the crowd overwhelmingly, by a show of voices, indicated that 391 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 7: they wanted Biden to be the nominee. You know, a 392 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 7: clear sign that at least, you know, Trump supporters think 393 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,479 Speaker 7: that he is an easier candidate to be. However, we 394 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 7: know that the Trump campaign for weeks has been preparing 395 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 7: that it may be Kamala or it may be someone 396 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 7: else in the race that they're running against So they've 397 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 7: started working on messaging. 398 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 4: What are we hearing about how Democratic donors are reacting 399 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 4: to Biden's announcement and whether they'll rally behind Kamala Harris 400 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 4: versus someone else. 401 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 7: So there's really two camps of donors right now. One 402 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 7: some of the major donors who are coming out and saying, look, 403 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 7: we support Harris. These are folks like George Soros and 404 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 7: his son Alexander Soros saying we're going to support Harris 405 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 7: and you know what, she needs to run. There's another 406 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,400 Speaker 7: group of donors. I'll note that these are less made donors. 407 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 7: These are people who give maybe up to a million 408 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 7: dollars but still have an influential voice within the party 409 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,959 Speaker 7: and are very vocal, and they're saying, hold on a second, 410 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 7: we want to make sure there's some sort of open 411 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 7: nominating process. We want to have either a primary or 412 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 7: an open convention. And this is going to be a 413 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 7: debate that plays out over the next couple of days 414 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 7: and whether those loud vocal voices saying they want some 415 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 7: sort of way to choose the nominee versus have it 416 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,239 Speaker 7: just going to Harris automatically. If they went out, this 417 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 7: could be very messy, and you could have a lot 418 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 7: of different candidates rise to the four, you know, each 419 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 7: siphoning off a little bit of donor money, but not 420 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 7: having donors unite behind one candidate. This is the exact 421 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,880 Speaker 7: problem that Republicans had on their side of after twenty 422 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 7: twenty two, the major party donor said, we don't want 423 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 7: to have Trump as our nominee. We should all pick 424 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 7: a candidate and you know, give to that candidate and 425 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 7: we could defeat Trump. That never happened. First looked like 426 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 7: it might be DeSantis, then maybe Nikki Haley, but Trump 427 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 7: at that point was too powerful and had enough support 428 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,679 Speaker 7: within the party base. A similar thing could happen with 429 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 7: Harris if donors don't decide and that it is clear 430 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 7: that the party leadership and the base of the party 431 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 7: is moving with Harris, she could be the nominee and 432 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 7: donors are going to have to line behind because they 433 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 7: just won't have any options at that point. 434 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 4: After the break, we dig into what an open convention 435 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 4: could look like and the financial problems that could face 436 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 4: the eventual nominee, including how much money a new candidate 437 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:27,679 Speaker 4: would need to launch a successful campaign in under four months. 438 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 4: We're back I've been talking with White House and Politics 439 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:35,360 Speaker 4: reporter Gregory Cordy and Money and Politics editor Laura Davison 440 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 4: about what we currently know about President Biden's decision to 441 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 4: drop out of the twenty twenty four race. But what 442 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 4: comes next? The open convention scenario sounds chaotic perhaps, but 443 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 4: could any of this upheaval actually energize donors. Could donors 444 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 4: who have thus far sat on the sidelines get activated 445 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 4: to actually start donating more to the Democratic Party. 446 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 7: That's the argument that some of these donors make and say, look, 447 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 7: you know, they're particularly arguing for a more moderate candidate. 448 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 7: Have someone who's maybe a little bit more business friendly, 449 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 7: Have someone who appeals to some of those people who 450 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 7: are never Trumpers on the Republican side. You could bring 451 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 7: a lot of money in right now. That's all theoretical. 452 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 7: There's no one who's coming forth and saying, look, I'm 453 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 7: going to pledge you know, X million dollars if it 454 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 7: is a certain candidate. Everyone is sort of seeing where 455 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 7: the political wins are blowing, and just the way that 456 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 7: the calendar moves, these decisions have to be made soon. 457 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 7: This is not something that can play out over a 458 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 7: couple weeks. Or months. You know, it's almost a first 459 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 7: mover advantage here. 460 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 5: One of the games that modern campaigns play is that 461 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 5: they try to raise a lot of money around events 462 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 5: to kind of signal that they have the momentum. So 463 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,360 Speaker 5: I would expect the Paris campaign, now that there is one, 464 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 5: to come out in the next few days and give 465 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 5: us a total of exactly how many millions of dollars 466 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 5: she's raised in a very short period of time to 467 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 5: kind of give the impression that there's a snowball effect 468 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 5: that people are rallying around her campaign, that she does 469 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 5: have the ability to raise that small dollar donor, and 470 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 5: sometimes small dollar donors follow small dollar donors. If people 471 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 5: see that there is momentum behind a candidate, that might 472 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 5: encourage even more people to jump in. 473 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 4: Already, we're seeing that tactic in action. As of nine 474 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,800 Speaker 4: pm Eastern on Sunday night, the Democratic fundraising platform Act 475 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,679 Speaker 4: Blue announced it received over forty six million dollars in 476 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:28,120 Speaker 4: donations from small dollar donors just since Biden officially endorsed 477 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 4: Harris Laura. Supporters of Harris have been saying that one 478 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 4: of her biggest assets is her access to Biden's war 479 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 4: chest that ninety six million dollars we were talking about earlier. 480 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 4: How does the process work now? Does the Harris campaign 481 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 4: inherit all that money automatically or could it go to 482 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 4: another nominee. 483 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 7: If it is Harris as the nominee, yes, she would 484 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 7: be able to inherit the ninety six million dollars or 485 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 7: so that is left in the account. She's able to 486 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 7: operate a lot more seamlessly than if it's another candidate, 487 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 7: So she is able to keep on staff, people could 488 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 7: keep their email addresses. If in fact it is another candidate, 489 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 7: they have to start a campaign committee, essentially the thing 490 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 7: you file with the FEC to say hey, I'm running 491 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 7: for president. They have to start a brand new campaign. 492 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 7: That campaign will have zero dollars in it. The ninety 493 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 7: six million that's left in the Biden campaign. They can 494 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 7: either donate that to the Democratic National Committee or to 495 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 7: a super pack, which presumably would then go to support 496 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 7: that new candidate ultimately, but you know, at least in 497 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 7: their campaign account they'll have zero dollars, so they'll immediately 498 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 7: have to start fundraising. There are a bunch of fundraising limitations, 499 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,160 Speaker 7: so for just an individual donor, the most they could 500 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 7: give to that campaign is just a couple thousand dollars, 501 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 7: so that you've got to go out and bring in 502 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 7: a lot of money. You need to bring in a 503 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 7: lot of grassroots money. You'd need to have all of 504 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 7: the super PACs working with you. Imagine a startup. This 505 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 7: is what the campaign would be doing of just you know, 506 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 7: getting staff hired, getting off a space, doing all of 507 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 7: these things. And it would take them weeks to just 508 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 7: get up on the ground and running you know, stuff 509 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 7: that the campaign when a normal year would have been doing, 510 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,120 Speaker 7: you know, a year or even two years ago. 511 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 4: How much money will they need to run an effective 512 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 4: campaign over them the next few months. 513 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 7: So Biden and his team you know and kind of 514 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,200 Speaker 7: allies we're talking about that they need at least a billion, 515 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 7: if not more to run this campaign. Biden and his 516 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 7: you know, allies raised about a billion dollars in twenty twenty. 517 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 7: So far the Biden campaign you know, to date, and 518 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 7: you know, along with the DNC, you know, has spent 519 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,199 Speaker 7: just a little bit over three hundred and fifty million dollars. 520 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 7: But of course the spending really really ramps up, you know, 521 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 7: as you head into election day. The Democrats have created 522 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 7: a strategy that's pretty expensive. They have a lot of 523 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 7: field offices with a lot of staff. They are running 524 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 7: a lot of advertising, you know, tens of millions of dollars. 525 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 7: You know, in any given month or week. They're going 526 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 7: to need a lot of money if they're going to 527 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 7: continue the strategy. And because they're going to be introducing 528 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 7: a new candidate and a new vice presidential candidate to 529 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 7: the public, they're going to need to continue that money. 530 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 4: Bloomberg has reported that Harris has been having meetings with 531 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 4: Wall Street executives recently, and from her days in California politics, 532 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,679 Speaker 4: she has her own ties to Silicon Valley and the 533 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 4: tech industry. How might to leverage those relationships. 534 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 7: Harris is very lucky because she comes from California, which 535 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 7: is called a donor state in that you know, it's 536 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 7: California really funds democratic runs across the country, So she 537 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 7: has close ties to Silicon Valley. She is a known 538 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 7: entity there. People know her name being vice president. She's 539 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 7: also been able to operate a little bit more under 540 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,640 Speaker 7: the radar than Biden. So she's been taking these meetings 541 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 7: with folks on Wall Street to explain some of the 542 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 7: Biden policies. She started to build those relationships. 543 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 4: You know. 544 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 7: Remember she's only fifty nine years old, so she's always 545 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 7: had an eye to what she would do after she 546 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 7: was Biden's vice president, knowing that she needs to have 547 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 7: Wall Street support, she needs to have some of these 548 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 7: ties to the business community, at. 549 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 5: Least among some of the Wall Street donors. There is 550 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 5: an ideological divide here that Harris is perceived as perhaps 551 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 5: to the left of Biden. When she ran in twenty twenty, 552 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 5: there was a concerted effort among some Democratic donors to 553 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 5: find a more moderate candidate. Remember, Bernie Sanders was in 554 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 5: that race, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris was somewhere on 555 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 5: the spectrum between Biden and those more liberal candidates, probably 556 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 5: a little bit more towards the progressive side. She was 557 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 5: for Medicare for all, for example. She was for a 558 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 5: number of different policies that she's now had to subsume 559 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 5: Biden's policies as his vice president. But there might be 560 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 5: some concern from some Wall Street donors of what they're 561 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 5: going to get in a future Harris administration. 562 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 4: In recent weeks, new packs have popped up that are 563 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 4: open about fundraising for a non Biden candidate. Do we 564 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 4: know how much money those packs have raised? 565 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 7: At this point, we don't know exactly how much money 566 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 7: is in them, because they've just sprung up in the 567 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 7: past couple of days or weeks. One of the ones, 568 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 7: Mike Novagrats of Galaxy Digital his pack, this is a 569 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 7: couple weeks old now at this point, but said it 570 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 7: raised about two million dollars sort of in the initial 571 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 7: days after forming. In the next twenty four to forty 572 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 7: eight hours, I anticipate we'll see a lot of donors 573 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 7: come forward, either with actual money or with commitments to 574 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 7: give to whether it's Vice President Harris or another candidate. 575 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 7: Should someone else throw their hat in the ring, and 576 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 7: that will be a key determiner of who really has 577 00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 7: the juice to mount to run. 578 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 4: Here I've been talking about. A Harris candidacy is not 579 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 4: a foregone conclusion. Despite Biden's announcement that he will endorse her. 580 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 4: The Democratic National Convention is in one month. Is there 581 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 4: still a chance that Democrats might choose someone besides Harris 582 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 4: at the convention? 583 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 5: Gregory, That's absolutely possible under the convention rules, But practically speaking, 584 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 5: it seems to me that any other candidate would have 585 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 5: to get out there relatively quickly before the institutional Democratic 586 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 5: Party really rallies around Harris. We're already seeing endorsements from 587 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,360 Speaker 5: former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton. We're starting to 588 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 5: see the Congressional Black Caucus and other really important stakeholders 589 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 5: rally around Harris. She has important support from important constituencies 590 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 5: in the Democratic Party, and so it would take a 591 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 5: lot for somebody to dislodge her from that perch. And 592 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 5: somebody's going to have to come in with a pretty 593 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 5: aggressive campaign and a lot of money pretty soon to 594 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 5: signal that this is going to be an open process. 595 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 5: Otherwise I would expect Democrats to really circle the dragons 596 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:03,920 Speaker 5: around Harris. 597 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 4: Assuming Harris gets the nomination, what is the process for 598 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 4: Harris to choose her running mate and how much you 599 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 4: try to leverage that decision to bring in additional funding. 600 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 5: We saw this on the Republican side just this past 601 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 5: week when Donald Trump chose jd Vance as his running mate, 602 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 5: and he did so really at almost a last possible 603 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 5: moment before the roll call even happened. So there is 604 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 5: time for that to happen. We might expect for Harris 605 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 5: to wait until close to the convention when it's cleared 606 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 5: that she has the votes, although she could come up 607 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 5: with a ticket earlier than that to kind of try 608 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 5: to figure out how to unify the party, maybe pick 609 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 5: somebody from a different wing of the party, maybe a governor. 610 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 5: Andy Basheer, the governor of Kentucky's name has come up. 611 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 5: The governors from Michigan and Maryland and Pennsylvania and California, 612 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 5: all of whom could be potential running mates. One potential 613 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 5: path would be to let as a running mate somebody 614 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 5: who is already independently wealthy and can write the campaign 615 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 5: a big check. You can self fund your campaign, it's 616 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 5: not subject to limits. And one name that could come 617 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 5: into play in that kind of a scenario as JB. Pritzker, 618 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,760 Speaker 5: the governor of Illinois, who is independently wealthy, is a 619 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,479 Speaker 5: billionaire inherited a lot of money from his family's hotel 620 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 5: and real estate empire, worked in venture capital, and was 621 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 5: very influential in getting the convention to come to Chicago 622 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 5: in his home state by helping to support that effort monetarially, 623 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 5: and could do the same if he were on the ticket. 624 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 4: For more on the political fallout from Biden's decision, the 625 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 4: market reaction and the next steps for the Harris campaign. 626 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 4: Head to Bloomberg dot com. Thanks for listening to The 627 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 4: Big Tig podcast from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. This 628 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 4: episode was produced by Julia Press. It was mixed by 629 00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,959 Speaker 4: Alex Zugera and fact checked by Adriana Tapia. Naomi Shaven 630 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,840 Speaker 4: is a senior producer and edited this episode. Our senior 631 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 4: editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Nicole beamsterbor is our executive producer, 632 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 4: and Stage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow 633 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 4: and review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts.