1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: Hello voter Nomics listeners. Stephanie Flanders here, and it's that 3 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: time of year where everyone has summer holiday plans, including 4 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 2: the three hosts of this show. So to keep thinking simple, 5 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 2: we thought it would be a good idea to offer 6 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: up a voter Nomics summer reading list for the beach, 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: the mountain, or the campaign trail, depending. We've each picked 8 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 2: a non fiction book touching on politics and economics that 9 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 2: we thought was worth reading right now. Some of them 10 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: are fresh off the presses, some a little older, and 11 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 2: even if you don't end up reading them, I hope 12 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 2: you'll enjoy hearing us talk about them with the author. 13 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: And for my summer reading selection, I'm speaking with Anne 14 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 2: Applebaum about her newest book, Autocracy, Inc. The Dictators Who 15 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: Want to Run the World, and as a columnist for 16 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: The Atlantic and Senior Fellow at Johns Hopkins University, author 17 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 2: of many other books, including Goolag a History which won 18 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: the Pulitzer Prize, and my recent favorite, the best selling 19 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 2: Twilight of Democracy, The Failure of Politics and the Parting 20 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 2: of Friends. As that title suggests, the strength of her 21 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: writing for me, especially in recent years comes not only 22 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 2: from her unique experience and expertise living and working in Poland, 23 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,839 Speaker 2: the UK, and the US, but the directly personal way 24 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 2: she writes about the shift that has happened in the 25 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 2: world since, roughly speaking, the fall of the Berlin Wall, 26 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: as what initially appeared to many of us to be 27 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 2: a great flourishing of liberal values and democracy in many 28 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 2: parts of the world metastasized into well autocracy incorporated. And 29 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 2: thanks so much for doing this opening question very broadly. 30 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: Tell us what this book is about and why we 31 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 2: should be reading it on the beach or anywhere else 32 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: this summer. 33 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: Yes, no, definitely you want to read it on the beach. 34 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: So first of all, thank you very much for having me. 35 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: It's a great it's privilege to be talking to you. 36 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: The book is the book is a little bit less 37 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: personal than my previous book, although it does it was 38 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: borne out of personal experiences. For many years, I've known 39 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: people who are active in the Russian opposition, in the 40 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: Iranian opposition, in the Venezuelan opposition, and over in recent 41 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: years I've come to understand that much of what they 42 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: do isn't working anymore, and even though they are popular, 43 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: they would win, certainly the Venezuelan opposition would win a 44 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: free election, and the Iranian opposition are fighting a very, 45 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: very unpopular government. They are no longer fighting a single 46 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: dictator in a single country. They're fighting a network of dictators. 47 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: And the book describes this network. It's not an alliance, 48 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: it's not an axis, and I don't think we're locked 49 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: in a new Cold war with them. So there's deocratic 50 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: Iran and bolivarian socialists Venezuela and nationalist Russia and communist 51 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 1: China don't have similar goals, but they do all have 52 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: similar enemies. And the enemy is us. The enemy is 53 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:23,679 Speaker 1: my friends, the democracy or the transparency, the anti corruption activists. 54 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: And the reason why is that they see our ideas 55 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 1: and I speak, are includes we in the democratic world. 56 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: We have ideas that would challenge them. And this is 57 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: the idea of transparency, of accountability, of the rule of law, 58 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: of rights, of human rights, and all of these things 59 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: are challenged to their particular form of dictatorship. And the 60 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: book describes how that world came to be, and it 61 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: describes the financial and the propaganda arms of those regimes, 62 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: as well as some of the military and strategic arms 63 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: it's a brief read. I don't know about beaches, but 64 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: you can certainly read it on a plane or a train. 65 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: It's meant to make you aware of how it works, 66 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: and once you see it, I find that you can't 67 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: unsee it. And I now almost every day I pick 68 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: up a newspaper or your radio program, I think, ah, yeah, 69 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: it's at work again. 70 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 2: There is something about the message of the book when 71 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 2: you step back, and it is a great read, it's 72 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 2: very easy read. It does open your eyes to a 73 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 2: lot of things. But there's something about it that does 74 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 2: go against the grain for say, skeptical journalists who've spent 75 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 2: a lot of time trying to douse conspiracy theories or 76 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 2: the idea that x or y sinister global organization is 77 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 2: out to get us. Because although you explicitly say there 78 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: isn't a single sort of James Bond Island where they're 79 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 2: all sitting and plotting, you are basically claiming that there's 80 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 2: these very disparate figures. President Madua of Venezuela, Prime Minister 81 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: Maningagua and Zimbabwe, and Vladimir Putin are all working together 82 00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 2: at some level, united by this desire to defeat a 83 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 2: certain set of values. 84 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: I repeat, it is not a conspiracy. They don't coordinate 85 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: their activity, but they do watch what one another does, 86 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: and sometimes they help one another out. There is no question, 87 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: for example, that the Venezuelan regime, which probably would have 88 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 1: fallen a long time ago, which is has been you know, 89 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: economically and politically disastrous for what was once the wealthiest 90 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: country in South America, has been rescued by Russian armaments 91 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: and weapons, by Chinese investment in Chinese surveillance technology, by 92 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: Cuban secret policemen, and even with the help of the Iranians. 93 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: You know, you think about Venezuela and Iran, these are 94 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: countries that have really nothing to do with one another 95 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: geopolitically or historically, or culturally or in any other way. 96 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: But they are both countries that are subject to sanctions. 97 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: They both produce oil, and they have found ways. Iran 98 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: helps Venezuela and break sanctions, and Venezuela has offered visas 99 00:05:57,440 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: and other kinds of help, for example, to Hesbala Act 100 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 1: in Europe. So it's again, it's not a plot. It's 101 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: just that they have they have things in common the 102 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: way that we American and Britain have things in common 103 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: in America and France and Germany have things in common, 104 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: and they act to help one another out and to cooperate. 105 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: But it's not it is None of it is a conspiracy. 106 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 1: You can see it all on the surface. You do 107 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: not have to have secret knowledge to interpret it. You 108 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: don't need access to secret documents. Most of the stuff 109 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 1: that connects them they say it in public, and what 110 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: they do is visible. 111 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: I think the power of the book actually is that 112 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 2: you're is the journalism involved in tracing some of these 113 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 2: examples and the way that these different regimes are sort 114 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 2: of playing each other's songs. So I wonder if it's 115 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 2: worth just giving us one of those examples to show 116 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: the kind of thing that you're talking about. 117 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: Well, one of the examples was, you know, the example 118 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: of Venezuela and how it's been propped up by the 119 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: other regimes. I mean, I suppose another example that I 120 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: use in the book. I talk about the way in 121 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: which their propaganda is again coordinated, makes it sound you know, 122 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: too conspiratorial, but in which they echo and repeat one another. 123 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: So the Chinese have made a huge investment, I mean 124 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: tens of millions, probably hundreds of millions of dollars in TV, 125 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: radio websites broadcasting in many, many languages all over the world. 126 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: Some of it is Chinese state TV and media, some 127 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: of it is content sharing arrangements with other organizations, all 128 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: kinds of investments in Shinhwa, which is the Chinese news wire, 129 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: is cheap or free in many countries, and some of that, 130 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: for a long time has just been the way that 131 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: that's just what the Chinese did to get out their 132 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: messages about why you should trade with us, and a 133 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: lot of them is even pretty boring. The Russians simultaneously 134 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: created this whole system of fake websites. I mean, we 135 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: got a little glimpse of that in the US twenty 136 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: sixteen elections, and that has also been expanding its well 137 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: beyond fake Facebook post. Now they create fake news organizations 138 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: that look like they're Ecuadorian or Peruvian, but they're really 139 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: designed in Moscow and so on. And these systems have 140 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: been in creation for a while, and you can argue 141 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 1: about how important they are, but what interested me was 142 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: the way in which they were starting to say the 143 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: same things, and others were as well. And so one 144 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: of the story that I trace in the book is 145 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: the story of the Ukrainian biolabs. I don't know how 146 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: many of your listeners remember this, but at the very 147 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: beginning of the Ukrainian War, the Russians made this claim 148 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: that there were US biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine. And 149 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: this is not true, and it was proven to be 150 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: not true, and it was actually the UN Security Council 151 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: declared that it wasn't true in multiple international organizations. Nevertheless, 152 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: you could find that conspiracy theory, I mean, that lie 153 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: was all over Russian media, it was all over Chinese 154 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: state media. It was therefore picked up by all kinds 155 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 1: of African media. It was picked up by the US 156 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 1: far right. So Tucker Carlson repeated it on he was 157 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: then still a Fox News host. There were a couple 158 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: of Internet figures who put it on Twitter or who 159 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: put it elsewhere, who got an enormous echo, and it 160 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: spread very widely. The rumor probably benefited from the recent 161 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: memory of COVID. People are paranoid about viruses being created laboratories, 162 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: and the Chinese were probably eager to promote it because 163 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: it somehow absolved them of the accusation they had helped 164 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: create COVID. In a laboratory. It was also designed to 165 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: muddy the story of the Russian invasion. So the Russian 166 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: invasion Ukraine was a very brutal colonial invasion. It was 167 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 1: an imperial invasion of occupation. The occupied territories were treated brutally. 168 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: Their concentration camps were set up, people were arrested, children 169 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 1: were deported, and all that was somehow muddied by the 170 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: idea that well, there are these US biolabs in Ukraine, 171 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 1: and that I'm not even quite sure I understand the 172 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 1: logic of how that explains the war, but but it does. 173 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: It makes it makes it, you know, less less crystal clear. 174 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: And but the point was is that I found this 175 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: conspiracy theory all over the place. Again. I found it 176 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 1: in Venezuela. I found it in Africa. I found it 177 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: in as I said, Chinese, Russian, you know, other other media. Yeah, 178 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: I don't think somebody there were people who sat in 179 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: your room, is at right, We're now going to everyone's 180 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: going to do this. It was just that people saw 181 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 1: it coming out of Russia and they repeated it and 182 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: used it. And that's an example now of how how 183 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: the narrative spread and how they're copied and imitated it, 184 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: and then then they and then create a kind of 185 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 1: giant echo chamber where you can hear this story about 186 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: biolabs from lots of different sources. 187 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 2: You were saying at the start that you don't need 188 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: to have a special conspiracy they because you can hear 189 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 2: it and see it in what they say and what 190 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 2: they're doing. But of course, I guess part of the 191 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 2: point with campaigns like that is that you can you 192 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 2: cannot realize how much an idea is being propagated around 193 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 2: the world and through social media, because even that is 194 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 2: so untransparent. 195 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, you cannot know where ideas are coming from. And actually, 196 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: the way that the Russians now often spread ideas or 197 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: spread narratives is they'll sometimes post something on social media 198 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: or in a video form, and then it will begin 199 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: to be repeated, and then they'll take down the original posting. 200 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: So sometimes they go to great efforts to hide that 201 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: they are the originators of a particular idea or theory 202 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: or or explanation or story. So, you know, they spend 203 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking about it, they care about it, 204 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: they put a lot of money into it. You know. 205 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: Some of this actually, of course, is pretty cheap and 206 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: it's hard to measure how much it matters or how 207 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: much it works. But we did have in the last 208 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: few months some evidence that it does. And so, for example, 209 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: one conspiracy theory that went out on Russian media and 210 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: Russian sort of Russian aligned media and social media in 211 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: the last year was that Presidents Lensky had bought two yachts, 212 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: and pictures of the yachts circulated online. And of course 213 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: they were not his yachts, they belong to other people. Nevertheless, 214 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,959 Speaker 1: the yacht story somehow filtered into the ecosystem, and during 215 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 1: the debate on Ukraine aid in the US Senate, apparently 216 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: some US senators brought up the yachts in their common 217 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: you know, why should we help Ukraine when the money 218 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: is going on yachts. I mean, this is completely false, 219 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: not true. Nevertheless, it had infiltrated the conversation to such 220 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: an extent that was part of the American political debate. 221 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: So if you want evidence that these things matter, that 222 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: was it. 223 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 2: You have also a great example that's sort of almost comical, 224 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 2: of a similar dynamic in the much smaller forum, where 225 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: you have the story around for the Taiwanese why the 226 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,959 Speaker 2: Taiwanese people trapped in a Japanese typhoon had not been 227 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: rescued when there had been a Chinese but coaches coming 228 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 2: to rescue them. And then it turns out that all 229 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 2: of that completely untrue. But then it had started this 230 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 2: whole debate about why does the Taiwanese government not look 231 00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: after its poor stranded tourists. I thought, it's just such 232 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:00,679 Speaker 2: an ob thing. 233 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: And what was important about that this was the story 234 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: that was told to me in Taiwan. What was important 235 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 1: about it is that it played into a larger narrative, 236 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 1: so that Chinese want to convince the Taiwanese, and they 237 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 1: spent they do a lot of information warfare and targeting 238 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 1: in Taiwan. They want to convince the Taiwanese that their 239 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: state is weak, that they don't have any friends, that 240 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: they're incompetent, that democracy is is less efficient, less effective 241 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 1: than dictatorship, and that little story about supposedly some Chinese 242 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: buses rescuing Taiwanese tourists was designed to play into that bigger, 243 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: larger meta narrative, and the story became so viral, pushed 244 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: by both by actual Chinese people and by kind of 245 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: pro Chinese media in Taiwan that there was a diplomat 246 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: connected to the story who killed himself. I mean it 247 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: led to a suicide because there was this outcry, why 248 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: are why are we so incompetent? Why can't we rescue 249 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: our tourists? So these are you know again, they seem 250 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: like little things, but they're they're meant to be part 251 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: of a larger narrative about the stability and success of dictatorship, 252 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: about the division and degeneracy sometimes even the sexual generacy 253 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,199 Speaker 1: of democracies. And you know, they and it's kind of 254 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: non stop. So they do it all the time. They 255 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 1: frame stories and they tell them in a way that's 256 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: designed to i mean disabilizes a wrong word because it 257 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: sounds too active, but undermine people's sense of security and 258 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: stability in the democratic world, whether it's Taiwan or Britain 259 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: or the United States. 260 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 2: You've got to know her long before I did, but 261 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 2: Audrey Tang, the former Digital Minister in Taiwan, that was 262 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 2: very much her. The point she was making is not 263 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 2: just about the message, but also that it's about making 264 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 2: people apathetic and not really believe in government. It doesn't 265 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 2: have to be active. I want to move on later 266 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 2: to how has this confronted what you've described, because that's 267 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 2: an important bit of the book. But I guess we 268 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 2: have to have a bit of a conversation about how 269 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 2: Donald Trump fits into this, because it's definitely not a 270 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: book about Donald Trump, but it certainly feels like it 271 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 2: has a lot of residents for the US election campaign. 272 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: I began to write it at a moment when I 273 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: did not know that Donald Trump was going to be 274 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:16,239 Speaker 1: the Republican Party candidate, but I did have some aspects 275 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: of trump Ism in my head. What Trump has in 276 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: common with the autocratic world is his transactionalism. So these 277 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: are regimes that, as I said, they're not knit together 278 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 1: by ideology or values of any kind. Instead, they do 279 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: deals with one another. And this is how Trump thinks. 280 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: We saw it in his first term, when he was 281 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: still surrounded by people who wanted to keep the US 282 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: in NATO and wanted the US to remain a leader 283 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: of the democratic world. I worry that in Trump's second 284 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: term those people would be gone, and his natural instinct, 285 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: which is to do deals with whoever wants to do 286 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: deals with them for his personal benefit, maybe for the 287 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: benefit of his friends in the business community, maybe for 288 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: the benefit of his family, that that would be the 289 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: purpose of his foreign policy would be to not for 290 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: the benefit of Americans and certainly not for the benefit 291 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: of the democratic world, but it would be for him personally. 292 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: And so I was just talking to somebody this morning 293 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: about what his China policy would be, and she was saying, well, 294 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: it's very confusing because he says different things, right, Sometimes 295 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: he sounds very hawkish. Sometimes he says how marvelous Chi 296 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: Jinping is and how much he admires him. And you know, 297 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: my answer to that is his policy will be whatever 298 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: he decides is most beneficial for him. If he decides 299 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: the China hawk thing works for him politically or in 300 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: some other way, he'll do it. And if he thinks 301 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: it's not going to work for him, he won't. And 302 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: this course very hard for you know, a policy analysts 303 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: and maybe even business people to understand when they hear that, 304 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: because we're used to thinking of Western or American Rather, 305 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: I don't try to use the word Western, American or 306 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: European democratic politicians as acting somehow in the interest of 307 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: a set of idea years or you know, certainly in 308 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: the interest of their country or where they believe is 309 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: to be the interest of their country, and he will 310 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: not do that, and that is why he could be 311 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: extremely dangerous, and the deals that he could make could 312 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: be very well be detrimental to American interests and maybe 313 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: even to the global interests of the democratic world. 314 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 2: We had that conversation around the ambiguity on China, specifically 315 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 2: with one of the people who might be as national 316 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 2: security advisor at Elberte Colby last week, but also a 317 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 2: while ago with Neil Ferguson, whose claim and he's not 318 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 2: the only one, A lot of people like Neil who 319 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 2: was sort of hoping to at least that there'll be 320 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 2: a sort of clear course on foreign policy out of 321 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 2: a Trump administration says, well, it will depend on who's 322 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 2: in the room, and there'll be someone in the room 323 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 2: who will be hawkish, because the Republicans are hawkish. I 324 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 2: guess in that context, I wondered, we're speaking quite soon 325 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,560 Speaker 2: after the selection of J. D. Vance as Donald Trump's 326 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 2: running mate. You know, what would the Confederation of strong 327 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,199 Speaker 2: man autocrats think about his selection as vice president? Do 328 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 2: you think is he likely to tilt policy further in 329 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 2: the that more autocratic direction in a second Trump administration. 330 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 1: So funny if what concerns me about gd Vance is 331 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: not stuff that he says, which seems to change depending 332 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: on what the political mood is. What diserves me about 333 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 1: him is the degree to which his candidacy was lobbied 334 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: for by Elon Musk and David Sachs, who have very 335 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: clear ideas at least about Russia and Ukraine. And so 336 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: what I worry about is that Vance is there because 337 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: you know, Trump was essentially selling the vice presidency. Mean, 338 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: who's going to give me more for it? You know, 339 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 1: what's the you know? And I don't know what exactly 340 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: that means, but I'm not sure that his policies are 341 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: as important as the group of business people whom he 342 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: represents are or might be. 343 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 2: As the name of the book suggests, you are focused 344 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:03,120 Speaker 2: on the financial corporate side of autocracy, Inc. And one 345 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 2: of the distinctive things about them that you highlight is 346 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 2: that they are working together to not just to stay 347 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 2: in power, but they have been very financially motivated as well. 348 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 2: What kind of challenge does that present to those who 349 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 2: are trying to combat this or undermine these autocrats. 350 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: One of the big differences between the autocrats of the 351 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: current day and some of their predecessors in the twentieth century. 352 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: Is that these are individually, very very rich people. So 353 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: either they are billionaires or their families or billionaires, they've 354 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: enriched groups of people around them. That's one of the 355 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: reasons why they stay in power. It's one of the 356 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: reasons why they want power. It's one of the reasons 357 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 1: why they why they hate the conversation about transparency and 358 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 1: accountability and the rule of law so much, because the 359 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: instinct that most people have about justice, you know that 360 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: this is unfair. Why is our economy so opaque? You know? 361 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: You know they need to push back again that all 362 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,439 Speaker 1: the time, because they need to protect their wealth and 363 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: the wealth of of their inner circle. How did they 364 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: obtain this wealth? I mean, that's a long story and 365 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: I won't tell it all here, but partly it was 366 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: by taking advantage of the loopholes in the Western financial system. 367 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: So I essentially Putin came to power by stealing money 368 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: from Russia, by laundering it in the West, and then 369 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: by bringing it back in. And his story was pretty 370 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 1: typical of a lot of people at that time in 371 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties, and he did so with the help 372 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: of Western lawyers, bankers, partners, you know, all kinds of accountants, 373 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 1: all kinds of people. And one of the great challenges 374 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: for the democratic world is will we shut down that system? 375 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 1: Can we stop enabling the theft of money from populations, 376 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 1: whether it's in Africa or it's in Eurasia, Can we 377 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: stop that happening? And can we draw a line both 378 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 1: because it's good for those countries, but also because it's 379 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: good for us, because the amount of dirty money washing 380 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: around in our systems. I mean, some of in the 381 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: US is a special case where politics have become insane 382 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:14,160 Speaker 1: and very driven by money. But even in European countries 383 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: where it's not clear who has money and why, it's 384 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: not clear who owns property in London, I mean, none 385 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: of that is conducive to good governance or good public 386 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 1: conversation or democracy. More broadly, you. 387 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 2: Know, one thing that has kind of quote unquote saved 388 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 2: the West from itself or I agree with you with 389 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 2: West is awkward, but liberal democracy from itself in the 390 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 2: past is the self interest of the commercial class. You know, 391 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 2: at key points there was a recognition that democratic norms 392 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 2: were needed to make capitalism work, even if those norms 393 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 2: also constrained individual capitalists from doing everything they wanted to do. 394 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 2: I guess the question back to you is that just 395 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 2: doesn't seem there doesn't seem to be that rationale operating. 396 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 2: There's something that's not working in the system. I mean, 397 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 2: in an age of corporate social responsibility. We still have 398 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 2: a lot of big businesses apparently not at all concerned 399 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 2: about Donald Trump as a threat to US democracy, if 400 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: that's what you think he is, and still continuing even 401 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 2: to operate in Russia or countries allied with Russia, despite 402 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 2: the sanctions that we've seen. It doesn't feel like the 403 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 2: self interest of capitalists is quite moving in that direction 404 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: as we have it seen in the past. 405 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: So it depends what kind of company. These are often 406 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: companies with global ambitions and sometimes bases who are hoping 407 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: that a Trump administration will give them special access or 408 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: special deals. So it's a little bit like in Britain's 409 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: Russia or in Orbon's Hungary, where people who are close 410 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: to power get special arrangements, you know, the foreign policies 411 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 1: made in their interests, or even sometimes the domestic policy. 412 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: And there's always been lots of influence of business on 413 00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,120 Speaker 1: democratic governments. I'm not going to say otherwise, but where 414 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 1: this is a scale of it is different. Now, that 415 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that it's going to be good for everybody else. 416 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,639 Speaker 1: I lived in Poland over the last ten years, and 417 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: in Poland we had a kind of autocratic populist party 418 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: that sought to capture the state and had business favorites, 419 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: especially some of the state companies that they were using 420 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 1: to reward their friends and so on. It was a 421 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: disaster for normal companies. So companies that depend on the 422 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,959 Speaker 1: rule of law, that need a reliable judicial system, that 423 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 1: need contracts to be recognized, that need the rules of 424 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 1: the game to be clear and fair. You know, when 425 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 1: there's a system that encourages favoritism, it's not corruption necessarily 426 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: in the old fashioned sense. People aren't necessarily being given bribes. 427 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 2: But transactionalism. 428 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 1: Let you transactionalism at a very high level. This might 429 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: be good for people who are on the inside, and 430 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: it might be really bad for everyone else. And I'm 431 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 1: actually surprised by the degree to which the US business 432 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: community hasn't fully wrecked. I mean, I know some have, 433 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: but the degree to which this could be very bad 434 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: for a lot of people I'm not sure is understood yet. 435 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 1: I mean, think about what we were just talking about, 436 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 1: a transactional China policy. I mean, to a company that 437 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: sells things in China or trades with China, I mean, 438 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: you need a policy that's predictable, that you understand, that's 439 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 1: based on, you know, some kind of some strategy that 440 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 1: makes sense. And if you're if instead there's going to 441 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: be a policy that depends on whoever Donald Trump is 442 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 1: in the room with and whoever pays the most money 443 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: to his political campaign or invests in some company that's 444 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: close to him, then you're going to have a lot 445 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: of trouble doing business. And having that kind of government 446 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 1: you know, in the long run is bad for the economy. 447 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 1: And you can look around the world at every single, 448 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: every single instance of it, and we see that. 449 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 2: Well, it's funny you should say that, because when we 450 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:53,199 Speaker 2: sat down we Bloomberg sat down with President Trump a 451 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 2: few weeks ago, and he was quite explicit precisely this point. 452 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 2: We said, well, surely the tariffs, it could be bad 453 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 2: for a lot of American business. Anyone who has a 454 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 2: problem with the tariffs, they should just come to me, 455 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 2: Like Tim Cook took he to me. He's a smart businessman. 456 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 2: He did a deal. Anyone can do a deal. And 457 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,719 Speaker 2: as you you know, as you suggest, of course if 458 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 2: you're a small if you're a small business, that's not 459 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 2: going to work. Just thinking more about how to confront 460 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 2: this and some of the things in your book about that. 461 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 2: You know, as you said when you were talking about Taiwan, 462 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 2: there are these kind of central ideas being propagated by 463 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 2: China and by the whole group in terms of the 464 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 2: sort of information war, which is that democracy brings chaos, 465 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,880 Speaker 2: it doesn't deliver. To combat that, as Audrew Tanger told 466 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 2: us in a previous episode, you need to prove otherwise 467 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 2: that it does work. You know. President Biden is probably 468 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 2: the Western leader that's taken that most to heart and 469 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 2: has tried to operationalize that, making it work for people 470 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 2: and bringing work back to the US and all that 471 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 2: just doesn't seem to have worked. 472 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 1: I mean, the part of Biden's problem is specific to him, 473 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: which is that he was not good at selling what 474 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,880 Speaker 1: he had done or explain it to people. And some 475 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 1: of that was I mean, maybe I don't know who 476 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 1: to blame exactly for it. Some of it was that 477 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: some of it may have been his age. He wasn't 478 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 1: a convincing public speaker. His television appearances weren't convincing. I mean, 479 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 1: to get across to millions of Americans through mass media, 480 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,640 Speaker 1: you need to have an outsized personality. I mean, whether 481 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 1: it's Barack Obama or or Bill Clinton, you know, you 482 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: need someone who can sell their message. And he was 483 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 1: not good at doing that. And that's a part of 484 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: the explanation. I mean, I'm sure you've had a million 485 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 1: guests on who told you the other parts of the explanation, 486 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 1: which is to do with the ways in which people 487 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 1: still feel shut out of the housing market and they 488 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: still there are piece parts of the economy that don't 489 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 1: work for people. And of course the other piece of it, 490 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 1: and this, I think is why he wanted to run 491 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 1: for president again. Is that some of what he did, 492 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: you know you don't see the impact yet. I mean, 493 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 1: you created the chipsack, which is designed to create more 494 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,479 Speaker 1: high tech jobs in the United States when you pass it. 495 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: That doesn't mean the effects of passing the law are 496 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 1: felt six months later. I mean they maybe felt four 497 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 1: years later. And so some of what he does I 498 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: think hasn't hasn't had an effect. Yet there are examples 499 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 1: around the world that are that are also going to 500 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,679 Speaker 1: be relevant. I mean, so the British Labor Party just 501 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 1: won an election basically arguing we're competent, we're going to 502 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 1: manage things better. We have people who have experience in 503 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 1: government and nobody economics, and we're going to fix things 504 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: and their government and their legacy will rise or fall 505 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,199 Speaker 1: on whether people perceive that to be true. And of 506 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: course perception is partly about what people really experience in 507 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: their ordinary lives, and partly it's about how it's communicated. 508 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,640 Speaker 1: But I mean the test that the Kamala Harris campaign 509 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 1: is also going to be partly about, you know, can 510 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: she retell the Bidens story? Can she convince people that 511 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: she can make things work? So's it's it's not that this, 512 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,199 Speaker 1: it's not that that's wrong. It's just that it you know, 513 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: much depends on your execution and your and your explanation. 514 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 2: There have been Biden's staff as over the last few 515 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 2: years who've been exasperated that he wasn't giving more speeches 516 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 2: about bridges, and I sort of felt like that probably 517 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 2: wasn't It's probably not going to help that much to 518 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 2: just be constantly talking about big infrastructure projects, but that 519 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 2: was maybe part of it. 520 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: The other election that I had the chance to observe 521 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: recently was the Polish election in October, and you know, 522 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 1: I have a declaration of mintance my husband as a 523 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 1: Polish politician, although he wasn't a candidate. You know, how 524 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 1: how did Donald Tusk, who's now the Prime minister, how 525 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: to any campaigns? Campaigned by going around and around the 526 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,719 Speaker 1: country for six months and stopping in small towns, big towns, 527 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 1: big city. I mean, he simply talked and met with 528 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 1: people every single day. You know, it's a genuine grassroots 529 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 1: campaign because he had to get around their problem, which 530 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 1: was the capture of the state media by the ruling party. 531 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,479 Speaker 1: But you know, any any US or European politician has 532 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: a similar problem. How do you break through to people 533 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 1: and how do you link up with them, and how 534 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 1: do you talk about the things they care about? I mean, 535 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,479 Speaker 1: you might have to spend a lot of time on 536 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: the road, and that wasn't something that Biden could do. 537 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 1: He didn't talk about the investments that were beginning. He 538 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: didn't spend enough time on factory floors. I get it. 539 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 1: He's the president of the United States, and he's busy, 540 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 1: but but someone has to do. 541 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,680 Speaker 2: Some of this is not about economic outcomes though, right, 542 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 2: I mean, and that's what also comes through in the book. 543 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 2: The sort of information war that these leaders are waging, 544 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 2: you know, has achieved is a sort of lack of 545 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 2: identification with some of those democratic values, of feeling it 546 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 2: doesn't resonate necessarily the idea of a rule based order, 547 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 2: if that's what we're trying to defend, sort of democratic values, 548 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 2: and people actually no longer see the value of it 549 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 2: or even and particularly think the US is not a 550 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 2: very good ambassador for it, having not necessarily respected people's 551 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 2: sovereignty or always respected democracy. How does one get around that? 552 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: I can't give you a kind of three sentence solution, 553 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: but actually, know who's very good at this is the people. 554 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: I began the conversation with the democracy activists of the 555 00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: autocratic world reminding people of what happens when you lose 556 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 1: your rights and what it's like to live in a 557 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 1: state where you don't have rule of law. I mean, 558 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: you know, in the US we're getting a little closer 559 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: to that. I mean, you now have judges in the 560 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 1: system who you know, people now talk about Trump judges 561 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 1: and Obama judges, which is something you know, we used 562 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: to hear in Poland. You know, did you what kind 563 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 1: of judge you got in your case would affect the ruling? 564 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 1: That's already the beginning of a slippery slope in the 565 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: in the wrong direction. And convincing people that this will 566 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 1: affect their lives and it will begin to change what 567 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 1: kind of choices they have is part of the argument. 568 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 1: I mean, this is actually why again, just to use 569 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 1: the Polish election as example, abortion turned out to be 570 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 1: a big issue in Poland. Well, abortion was already illegal 571 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 1: in Poland, but it was tightened further so that in effect, 572 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,239 Speaker 1: many doctors would not help women who were dying. They 573 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: were they had problematic pregnancies. And two women died. And 574 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 1: when people realize that a decision made by judges, you know, 575 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 1: sitting in robes in some distant place, had led, after 576 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 1: a series of events, to the deaths of these two women, 577 00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 1: that created a kind of outrage. If Harris or people 578 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 1: around your are able to connect changes in the digital 579 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 1: system to people on the ground, that's a way of explaining, 580 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 1: you know, what it is that you lose when you 581 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: lose rights when you lose the rule of law, it 582 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: can begin to affect you personally. I mean, those words 583 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 1: don't mean that much to people, you know, the you 584 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 1: say judicial independence and it doesn't make people scream and 585 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 1: yell and clap and cheer and run out on the streets. 586 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 1: But when people begin to see the longer term effect 587 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: of the loss of judicial independence, sometimes the mood changes. 588 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 2: You've stolen my last question, which was to be ending 589 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 2: on a moment of a sort of some hopefulness in 590 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 2: that you are in Poland, a country that has succeeded 591 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 2: in at least for the moment, turning a certain kind 592 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 2: of tide against a more personal, more autocratic style of leadership. 593 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 2: You've won that election, asked auto or at least those 594 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 2: forces won the election. Donald Tusk is now Prime Minister again. 595 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 2: Do you feel like that shows that, you know, we 596 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 2: can do more, maybe than many people now think when 597 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 2: they look at what the force is coaliesting in the 598 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 2: US and elsewhere. 599 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: I mean, there is no law of history, There is 600 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: no rule that says we have to decline or democracy 601 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 1: will decline, or you know, the twenty first century is 602 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: the century of autocracy and doesn't work like that. That's 603 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: not who history works. You know, what happens tomorrow depends 604 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: on the actions of a lot of people today, and 605 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 1: there is always space for a cific engagement. There's space 606 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 1: for people to involve themselves in the political lives of 607 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 1: their countries if they care about the direction that they're going. 608 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 1: And I mean, I've always believed that, and I think 609 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 1: it's more true than ever. 610 00:32:51,920 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 2: An Applebaum, thank you so much, Thank you thanks for 611 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 2: listening to this week's some of Book's Photonomics from Bloomberg. 612 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 2: This episode was hosted by me Stephanie Flanders. It was 613 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 2: produced by Samma Sadi, with booking support from Chris Martlou, 614 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 2: production support and sound design by Moses Ander. Brendan Francis 615 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 2: Nenham is our executive producer and Sage Bowman is head 616 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Podcast. With special thanks to Anne Applebaum. Please subscribe, rate, 617 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 2: and review highly this show wherever you listen to it.