WEBVTT - Reshaping the Presidential Race and Pricing-In Earnings 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.119 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:46.320 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:48.040 Monica Decenso joints. 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:51.360 She's now head of Global Investment Opportunities at JP Morgan. 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.440 But Monica, you and I we across past years and 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.400 years ago when you were bear Stearns, Raykats, Victor Miller, 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.920 Alan Schwartz, all the great media folks at bear Stearns 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.920 covering the radio TV broadcast is the Tower companies Tom 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.240 at one point Tower those were great now. 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:07.600 That don't exist anymore. 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.000 So my job, my job was to read those prospectuses 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:13.760 that I read them from the back to the exactly. 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:16.840 My question to both of you then is radio just 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:18.319 in Good morning on Bloomberg Radio? 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:21.640 Then was it's fourteen times but it's cheap? 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:22.080 Yep? 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:25.039 Are we in for that right now? Monica? Are we 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:29.480 where's our where's the blow up? Right now? That's fourteen 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:30.360 times even time? 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.080 Yeah, I don't know that I see anything that clearly 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.160 that looks that misvalued. 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.000 What we do see those is you look at the 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:38.479 broad s. 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:40.720 And p twenty times and again I think back to 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.320 where we were back in those days, and it does. 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:45.800 Feel fairly to fully value. 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:47.400 And so the struggle now, as you see the market 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:49.640 down of a couple percent, maybe do you jump in 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:49.960 and buy? 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.280 I think you probably see more volatility. 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.200 Heading into the fall and into elections, and so I 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:56.760 would use any pullback of three four percent or more 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.560 to start logging in. As you mentioned earlier, I work 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:01.360 with family all over the world, and most of them, 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:04.040 unfortunately don't have enough risk on in their portfolios. They're 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.040 still sitting in too much cash, and so I'd love 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:07.760 to stay. I'm waiting for ten percent down, but I 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:09.280 don't know that we're going to get that, so three 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:10.600 or four might be enough to nibble. 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:13.320 So I mean, you work with ultra high net worth individuals, 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:17.120 family offices, those types of folks. Yeah, are they participating 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:19.840 in this magnificent seventh thing over the last twelve eighteen 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:21.960 months or maybe or. 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.840 Not they're participating, but most don't have as much as 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:26.960 they would like, because what happened in twenty twenty two is, 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:29.359 you well know, when texuled off and everything got a 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:31.480 little scary, many of them moved to cash. They have 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:33.880 that luxury they're not you know, it's their personal money. 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.000 They don't need to be in markets. And then they 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:38.320 were hoping for a pullback in twenty three. Most never 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:40.440 actually got back in as much as they wanted, and 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.240 so now still a bit Offside's too much cash, not 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:45.800 enough risk for generational wealth that they have that they 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:47.799 really should be focused on compounding so. 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:48.720 That generational wealth. 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.880 Again, these ultra high networth individuals that JP Morgan you know, 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:55.200 deals with so well, are they. 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.560 Still in a sixty forty kind of environment? Are they 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.400 sixty forty but I need to have some alternatives? Are they? 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:02.919 Or they maybe even more cash than a sixty to 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:04.520 forty PORTFOLI would suggest. 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.880 Yeah, a couple of big trends right now. Again, still 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.080 too much cash, but that's a function of that fear 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.080 coming out of twenty two and that year when nothing 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:14.520 works work, bonds down, equities down, that rattles people broadly. 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:16.800 Larger families we work with tend to have much bigger 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.440 allocations to alternatives to your point, because again, this is 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:20.919 not money that they're going to need for the next 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:23.040 five or ten years. And so if you can take 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:25.560 that illiquidity that generally is going to pay, and we 0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:26.880 hope that you're going to earn more than you'll get 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.400 in public markets. So larger families we work with might 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:32.960 have upwards of forty forty five percent alternatives. Doesn't make 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.800 sense for you know, a normal retail investor, But when 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:38.000 you get to that size hundreds of millions of dollars 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.240 that you're investing, you can do that which pays off 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:41.440 in the long term your company. 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:45.200 Screenberg would say, you know, don't over diversify. To me, 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:50.040 one of the diseases right now is massive over diversification 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:56.000 through passive in ETFs to fancy people with fancy accounts. 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.680 Do they have the courage to be less diversified and 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.680 better on a sector or a bet in a company? 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:03.000 They do? 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:06.000 Many you know, have made their wealth in one sector 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:07.960 or one part of the market, right, it. 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:09.080 Could be autos, could be tech. 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.760 And so as a result, often they'll have a concentrated 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:14.360 position in one sector that then argues that you need 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:15.520 diversification else. 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:16.000 Away from it. 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:18.080 Yeah, and so we spend a lot of time helping 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.200 them think about where is your risk again, You're you're 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.400 a tech founder, You're locked up in a stock. 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:24.120 We've got to have you in bonds. We've got to 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:25.200 have you outside of the US. 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:28.680 We have to have you thinking about again, alternatives, infrastructure. 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:30.479 I don't know who's going to win the election, but 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.400 I'm pretty sure WED to spend more on infrastructure, and 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:34.040 so there are bets like that that make a lot 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:34.400 of sense. 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:36.760 We get another question here because I want to go 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.080 to an entertainment I just want to go to go 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:40.120 back to rag cats go. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:41.920 How about bonds? I mean fixed income? 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:43.880 I mean you know, you put a client in to 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.200 your treasure and get four and a half percent here, 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:48.760 what do you guys, How are you guys positioning fixed 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:49.679 income to your clients? 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.039 Again, it's it's getting people comfortable with that playbook after 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:54.800 being out of it for a decade. So a couple 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.200 of things you're a US taxpayer, Munis don't have to 0:04:57.279 --> 0:04:58.320 overcomplicate things, right. 0:04:58.400 --> 0:04:59.560 Munis make a ton of sense. 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:01.800 Especially world where people are worried about what is the 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.800 tax regime going forward and what are my tax rates 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.520 going to be? Also, you know, adding a little bit 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.839 of duration, taking a little bit of risk, bank preferreds 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:12.560 I still think make a ton of sense. Yeah, like 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.880 that city yesterday came out issued thousand dollars part seven 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.280 percent coupon. If you're a US taxpayer, that's almost a 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:19.320 nine percent taxic. 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:23.279 Im mortals buy those or they have started institutions. 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:25.719 They tend to be more held by institutions. But absolutely 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:26.960 retail investors commune. 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:31.599 How do you affect immuni transaction for a family, office, portfolio, 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:33.039 individual Some. 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.440 Want individuals most Actually again they like to see the 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:38.920 line on them. I think psychologically for families that makes 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:40.880 more sense versus a fund where you just don't know 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:41.839 what's going on under the hood. 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:42.880 So we'll do a lot of. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.520 Separately managed accounts SMAs, and then depending on what tenor 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:48.680 duration they're comfortable with, we build it to cater to 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:48.960 that use. 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.760 Is ladder communis That's what I do. Very good all 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:55.520 my maturity. I'm a level for sure. 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:57.800 To both of you. I talked to Paul about this 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:00.120 all the time. Monica, let me start with you and 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:04.000 the turmoil of what you used to follow. Is Disney 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:07.800 like the mother of all values? Or is it a 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:08.840 busted blue chip. 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:10.360 I'm having a flashback to the last time I was 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:11.719 on you tried to get me to talk about a 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.200 single name and jaf Organis that love that? But I 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.040 don't cover disease closely anymore, so it would be reckless 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:17.960 for me to a pine. 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:20.839 Are you long or short? Hollywood? 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.000 At the end of the day, like, people still consume 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.080 media and content, and so how they consume it has 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:28.000 changed from when you know, Paul and I were doing. 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:29.640 This many years ago. But people still watch stuff. 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:31.480 You're on an airplane, everyone's on their ipet, everyone's on 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:33.839 their phone. It's just pivoting to how they want to 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:36.080 consume it and the bite size and the length and 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:36.760 duration all that. 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:38.880 But great content is great content. 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:40.880 And so I, you know, personally, still own some of 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:42.880 those names that I used to work with many years ago, 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:44.720 and I think they make sense in a portfolio. 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:49.280 She's in trouble now. Yeah, general consuls over on Parking. 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:54.360 And yet I mean it's still being built. I did 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:55.080 a tour last week. 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:58.240 It was amazing. What was to take away from the tour. 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.719 Take over the tours that buildings really tall, and if 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:02.760 you're afraid of heights, I don't recommend going up there 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:04.360 when there's no windows in there, because. 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:08.359 All I want to know is like at four to 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:10.200 twenty five park, is there going to be a fancy 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:11.000 bar at the bottom. 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:14.679 There's the fancy bar at the top. I'm told, yeah, okay, 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:16.840 so all right, I mean not yet, but. 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:22.680 Top of the din exactly to Monica descends a wonderful 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:25.400 don't be a stranger. This was great, particularly talking about 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:30.120 the shop to K booth that Alan Schwartz built years ago. 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:42.080 So much of the heritage of Bloomberg surveillance in Bloomberg 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:45.640 on the Economy is actually talking to people that has 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:50.520 stopped and really thought about the moment we're in on 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.160 the high ground of that concept has got to Macunda, 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:57.160 who is at Two Rivers Group, which barely describes his 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:03.320 contribution to thinking about leadership at MIT at Harvard a 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:06.800 Yell lecture now, but particularly his political science at the 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:11.000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a number of years ago. God, 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.120 and thank you so much for joining us. And I 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:16.679 just want to go back to picking presidents. A book 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:20.280 you put out two years ago. Nice timing, God, and 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.680 you nailed that, and in it you go right to 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:25.800 the heart of what I was talking about with David 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:32.120 Gura Sunday, I guess Harry Truman and the system at 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.600 its best. I was trying, in my inept way to 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:39.000 explain why nineteen fifty two and off the death of 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.640 FDR and forty five matters. What did they do with 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:46.760 Harry Truman that we're stumbling on right now? What do 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:48.000 we learn from that era? 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:51.079 Well, thank thank you for that introduction. Though one of 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.719 my friends texted me, went out to Biden, said he 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.200 wasn't writing for relaction and said, usually when people say 0:08:56.200 --> 0:09:00.040 they wrote the book on missips of metaphor, and so 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:03.079 for Truman in ninety forty eight. Let's think this through 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:06.160 for a second, right, Franklin Roosevelt runs for president in 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:09.600 nineteen forty four. It's his he's running for his fourth 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.640 term in office. Democratic Party insiders know that he is terribly, 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:17.280 terribly sick. Everyone who spends time around him can see 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:18.960 that this is a man who is not wrong for 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:22.040 this world, but he is Franklin Roosevelt. If he runs, 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.319 he's going to win reelection. Nobody has any real doubts 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.319 about that. And that means that they are really really 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:31.800 electing his vice president and Henry Wallace, who had considerable virtues. 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:33.120 I'm not you know, I'm not saying it's all for 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:35.440 Henry Wallace was a man I'm not just to the left, 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.280 but the far left and Democratic Party leaders looked at 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.880 him and just said, this guy cannot be president of 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:46.360 the United States. And in particular they said he cannot 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:49.360 be president in the context where in the post World 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.000 War or ghost War world we're going to be worried 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:55.240 about the Soviet Union. And so Democratic Party leaders did 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:59.679 what functioning parties do. They lined up, they created a 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:03.120 press your campaign to put walls off the off, walls 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.000 off the ticket, and they picked what they decided was 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.559 the best person in the Democratic Party to take his place, 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:10.840 and in that they got Harry Truman. And Truman was 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.960 they were enormously rewarded by his sort of really so 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.760 quite surprising in some ways success in the presidency. When 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:20.560 we think about this is what parties are supposed to 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:22.080 do this, how they function. 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.400 And can I say, Paul Sweeney, it's just could jump 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:27.120 in here, Paul, But it's just simple jd Vance. You know, 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:28.599 Harry Truman, what's going on? 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:29.560 Hey got them? 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:32.680 Give us your views on what the Democratic Party just 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:35.480 went through over the last several days with President Biding 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:39.800 stepping down from the campaign and I guess Vice President 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:41.240 Harris kind of taking the mantle here. 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:41.840 What's your take? 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:44.880 Yeah, So the first and what I said is that 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.679 this is a party functioning the way that they're supposed to, which, 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.480 you know, give them credit. A week ago, I don't 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:52.200 think any of us would have thought of the Democratic 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.600 Party was dysfunctional. Right that its ability to sort of 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.120 line up and then move this and make this happen 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.520 so seamlessly is not something that I think many of 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.400 us expected, and it's certainly not something that I expected. 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:04.439 I thought that the transition would happen, but I thought 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.760 it would be longer, more awkward, and much bloodier than 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:11.000 this second. When you're looking at Vice President Harris itself, 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:14.199 I just want to think this through, right. She could 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.720 not have found out that she was getting Joe Biden's endorsement, 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:20.880 that he was stepping down. The earliest she could have 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:24.080 find out found out was noon on Sunday, right noon 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.439 on Sunday, because the decision wasn't made finally until that morning. 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.839 By noon on Monday, less than twenty four hours later, 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:35.640 she had secured the endorsement of every single plausible contender 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:39.439 for the nomination. Widmer and Pritzker were the last two 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:43.120 to fall, and they both endorsed her Monday morning. To 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:47.320 do that from a standing start is actually quite remarkable, right. 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.640 It is not something I think many people would have expected. 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:51.400 It's certainly not something I would have expected. 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.040 How about former President Obama? Are you surprised that we 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.160 have not necessarily heard from him yet? And when do 0:11:58.160 --> 0:11:58.720 you expect no. 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:01.720 One out of a statement saying, look, I have always 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:03.880 made a policy of not making these endorsements. He didn't 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:07.640 do it in twenty with Biden. You Know what I 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.920 would say is it's clear that party insiders know exactly 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:13.320 what he favors. Right, he has doesn't have to make 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.160 a public statement for everyone in the party leadership to 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.280 know who he thinks should be the next Tommy. Right, 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:23.800 So the lack of a public statement him and I 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.319 think to some extent him also kind of maybe it's 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.040 a way of sort of showing respect to Joe Biden, 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.599 right when he didn't endorse last time around. Okay, go 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.040 he did. How can he do with this in the. 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.640 Time we've got left? I got your next book for you. 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.160 I know you're doing nothing this summer, but you know 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:41.839 you can go up to Maine and write it off 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:45.040 the shores looking out at the Atlantic Ocean. Your next 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.080 book is called Picking Vice Presidents. You've got to be 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:54.000 kidding me. How does Vice President Harris go about let's 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:57.000 just say, for the conversation, the derby of an astronaut 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.640 from Arizona, a guy from North Carolina that's on the block, 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.800 plus they need him for a Senate run in North Carolina, 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:08.280 and a Jewish governor in Pennsylvania. How does well, how 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:11.360 did how do you prosecute that? Giving your expertise? 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.880 Well, you got to toss in the maybe the leading 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.480 candidate is Ady Basher, the governor of Kentucky. Right, so 0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.839 my personal bias is Mark Kelly, because then then Katie 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.560 Hobbs kind of points Scott Kelly, Mark's twin brother to 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:27.280 the Senate, and I think that would just be the 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.360 funniest the funniest thing that happened in the history of 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:31.560 American politics, and honestly, we could all use a good laugh. 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.800 But more seriously, the party of the Democratic Party has 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:40.240 the problem of its principal virtue, which is has got 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:45.640 a really deep bench. Right Nowher's appeal has strong appeal 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:49.600 to sort of the working class whites. Kelly brings Arizona 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.240 back into play. Shapiro probably takes Pennsylvania out of play 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.600 and just makes it a solid blue seat. These are 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.640 all all arounds. I suspect it won't be Cooper. Oh, obviously, 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.800 it's been fantastic North Carolina, just because the Democrats are 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.280 going to double down on we are the young face 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:07.480 of change that Kamala Harris gives them and Cooper, and 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:08.680 Cooper is his late sixties. 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:11.839 I got one, I got one minute left, Professor, How 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.760 does President Trump respond to what we've seen the last 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.920 three days and what we will hear from President Biden 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:19.520 this evening? 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:22.960 So I got a text from a very very senior 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:27.160 Republican this morning saying this is a quote I stand corrected. 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.440 I thought she would be a disaster, and this has 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.400 been the best three day rollout she could possibly have had. 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:36.760 I think he will find a way to respond. I 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.240 would never underestimate Donald Trump's cunning, but his standard attacks 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.080 are really going to run into problems here because by 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.480 running against a black woman, the sort of dog whistle 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:47.880 politics that he's that he's used to, He's going to 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:49.840 be really tempted to go over the line. And we've 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:53.280 already seen a bunch of House Republicans start calling her, 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:55.360 you know, a DEI candidate. 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:55.400 Things like that. 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.200 Just to put this in perspective. Six years of Attorney general, 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.800 four years of senator, four years is vice resident. She 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:04.960 is way more qualified than you know JD. Vans or hey, 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:06.760 George W. Bush, not that long ago. 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:09.800 Okay, Professor mcconna, just quickly here, what should the Red 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:13.880 Sox do with the trade deadline? Should they trade her? Oh? 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:15.320 You always need starting pitching? 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.960 Okay, Well that's what Paul Sweeney says as well. This 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:21.360 has been wonderful. Don't be a stranger. Got m Kunda 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.360 definitive folks here. I really can't say enough about his 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:32.240 book picking Presidents shockingly pression. Can I just say that, 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.840 Dan Eyes, for those of you on Bloomberg Radio, you're 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.640 lucky you can't see this he's the kind of guy 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.960 who takes a Williams Sonoma tablecloth and makes it into. 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:45.480 A shirt, makes it looks like Lemons, Lemons. 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.440 He's looking sharp as always, Lemons on his shirt, pink pants, 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:49.200 all that kind of stuff. 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:50.600 Crazy sneaks. 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:52.520 I'm not sure what's going on there, Dan Ives, Managing 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.240 Director Senior Equianos at Wedbush Securities stand thanks so much 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.080 for being in studio with us. 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.680 Talk to us about Tesla last night. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.400 The numbers came in on the boring old automobile business 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.120 weaker than expected, But again he's trying to get folks 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.840 to focus on other issues, whether it's AI, robotaxi whatever. 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:11.400 What was your takeaway from the court, I. 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.480 Think it's a tail of two cities. If you want 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.800 to focus on margins in terms of the price cuts 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:21.240 lower asps margins were disappointing, two hundred BIPs lower. That's 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:24.680 why the stocks down. But I believe that's nazeeing fares 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:28.040 through the trees. I mean, this is an AI robotics 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:31.760 and Robotaxi day and now October tenth, that's going to 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.200 be the story going forward. And I think this is 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.400 a theme where as is all plays out in the 0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.560 street will start to better understand what's happening at Tessa. 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:43.720 I we're buyers in the weakness here. 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:46.120 Do they have a CEO? It's this guy around her 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:48.480 as a helping Donald Trump and mister Vance. 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.280 Look, I think actually stayed away. 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:52.240 You're in a conference call. I mean, is he running 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:52.720 the company? 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:58.200 I think he is more more from a you know, 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:01.360 would I'd say pilot on the plane at Tesla today, 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:03.560 adult in the room then he's probably been in the 0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:05.680 last few years because I think Tom, I think the 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:09.119 biggest thing is he recognized, must recognize is this is 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:13.200 a pivotal historical time for the Tesla story in terms 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:17.680 of robotaxis AI as well as now demands stabilizing in China. 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.479 But also we go back three months ago. The haters 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:22.480 hate this name. They thought it was one forty going 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:24.960 to one hundred. Look where the stocks at today. That's 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:27.520 why I think you always have to just be cognizant 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.679 of that. As many of you know, they hated fifty billion, 0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:32.200 the spies at the trillion. 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.320 Yep, exactly, So Dan, I mean, just looking at the 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.679 stock just year to date, it's really amazing. Story started 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:39.600 the first four four and a half months, stock down 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:44.480 fifty percent Since late April, it's rallied seventy five percent, 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:47.760 so now todate we're pretty much kind of even here 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:48.199 for the year. 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:49.560 What does that kind of move tell you? 0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:53.320 I think it shows that Wall Street slowly is now 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:57.240 starting to understand this is an AI robotics play and 0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.760 not a traditional car company, because you'll have six seven 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:04.240 million vehicles in the road. And I think that leays 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.720 out what will be the next chapter. 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.760 On AI capac spend. What can you take from Google 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.600 last night and bring it forward to next Wednesday and Thursday, 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:14.680 Microsoft and awfter. 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:17.400 I think it shows AI revolution. We've talked about nine 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:19.520 pm in a part that goes to four am. I mean, 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:21.920 if you look at those CAPBAX numbers, look at that 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:25.560 Google Cloud. I'm more bullish on alphabet today than it 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:28.879 was twenty four hours ago. Why because you look at 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.359 Google right now. Google Cloud is on a run rate 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:35.480