1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 2: Norma Linda Paul Shoeny were live here in our Bloomberg 7 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: Interactive Brokers studio, streaming live on YouTube as well. I 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: want to follow up on that story that Lisa was 9 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: just reporting. Do we have a deal in the energy 10 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: space or not? 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 3: Again? 12 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal was reporting that Shell early stages and 13 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 2: talks to acquire British Petroleum BP. Then Schell say no, 14 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: not so much. So I don't know where we are here. 15 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: Let's check in with Will Harris. It's his job to 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: know what's going on. He's a senior Global Energy analyst 17 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based in London. Hey, well, what 18 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: do you think's going on there with Shell and BP? 19 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 2: If anything? 20 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, So, I think it's pretty important to point out here. 21 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 4: Shell was very quick to refute these reports from the 22 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 4: Wall Street Journal. It's pretty consistent with what we think. 23 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:10,199 Speaker 4: This would be a very opportunistic and potentially quite risky 24 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 4: strategic departure for Shell. They have shown a very strict 25 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 4: capital discipline for the last several years, and so this 26 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 4: would be a big, big ticket item for them to 27 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 4: try and absorb. Any deal would likely near one hundred 28 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 4: billion dollars assuming something like a twenty percent premium, and 29 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 4: you would almost certainly see major antitrust hurdles, integration risks, 30 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 4: synergy challenges over many many years which would follow. So 31 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 4: in short, we think it's quite unlikely that the Shell 32 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,559 Speaker 4: would make a run at the full full takeover of BP. 33 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 4: What we do think is probably more likely is they 34 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 4: could be interested in select businesses of BP that they 35 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 4: could add as sort of bolt on acquisitions. 36 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 5: Have this played out, of course, it would have been 37 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 5: a really major deal here. But what is M and 38 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 5: A activity look like More broadly in the sector. 39 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 4: So EMINE activity has sort of take a bit of 40 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 4: a back seat over the last little while. We've had 41 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 4: a pretty bearish commodity outlook, and notwithstanding the last couple 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 4: of weeks with a surge and geopolitical risk, we're mostly 43 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 4: seeing smaller, lower risk near field acquisitions from these companies. 44 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 4: They're not taking the kind of big risks that we 45 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 4: are that we have seen maybe in the last couple 46 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 4: of decades, and that's for many reasons. I mean, these 47 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 4: these portfolios are much more global and much more diverse 48 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 4: than they have been in the past. And there's this 49 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 4: tension at the moment within this peer group of how 50 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 4: how much to focus on their core oil and gas 51 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 4: hydrocarbon portfolios and how quickly to advance their energy transition ambitions. 52 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 4: What percentage of their capeck should they be investing in 53 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 4: renewable power hydrogen ev charging networks, knowing that these are 54 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 4: much lower return businesses than their core oil and gas projects. 55 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 2: All Right, I'm putting on my m and a banker 56 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:11,519 Speaker 2: hat will here because I want to get a deal 57 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 2: on the tape here. I want some bankers and lawyers 58 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 2: to get paid here. BP's got a market cap of 59 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 2: eighty billion dollars. That's a big number. That's a lot 60 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: of money. But Shells at two hundred billion and Exon 61 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 2: Mobiles at four hundred and seventy billion, is BP are 62 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,079 Speaker 2: they big enough to play on the global energy stage 63 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: these days? 64 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 4: So it's a good point and the answer is not really. So. 65 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 4: BP has suffered terribly on valuation compared to Shell, and 66 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 4: particularly compared to their American counterparts Exon and Chevron. This 67 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 4: is for many reasons. They've had a flip flopping strategy 68 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 4: over the pace of their energy transition progress. Their costs 69 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 4: have been far too high, They're spending has been far 70 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 4: too high. They for a couple years they were planning 71 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 4: to reduce their hydrocarbon production by a significant amount. They've 72 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 4: turned that around, so they've sort of been all over 73 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 4: the place. Their valuation has suffered, which makes them a 74 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 4: potentially interesting acquisition target. We've written for a while now 75 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 4: that the sum of their parts is much more than 76 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 4: where they're currently valued. Their balance sheet is also quite 77 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 4: over leveraged, so this makes them an attractive acquisition target. 78 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 4: But as we know, there are very very limited suitors 79 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 4: out there Exon, Chevron, Shell, potentially some Middle Eastern NOCs. 80 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 4: But as I mentioned, there's those massive challenges for a 81 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 4: scale of this sort of acquisition, and as a result, 82 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 4: we continue to think that it is probably unlikely. 83 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:47,799 Speaker 3: Not much happening. 84 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 5: When you look at this share performance here for some 85 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 5: of these US based companies like Exon as you called out, 86 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 5: and Chevron here. But how are these companies scaling right now? 87 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 5: What is it looking like right now in terms of 88 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 5: how these US based companies are performing in comparison to 89 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 5: their competitors. 90 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 4: So Excell and Chevron have a very differentiated strategy compared 91 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 4: to the Europeans. There's a very wide strategic divergence across 92 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 4: the Atlantic. Exon and Chevron have stayed the course with 93 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,239 Speaker 4: oil and gas for the most part. They are still 94 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 4: investing heavily in oil and gas growth, particularly in the 95 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 4: Permian and also down in Guyana with some major projects 96 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 4: coming online now and in the near future. And you 97 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 4: can compare that to the European strategies which have moved 98 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 4: quite quickly into renewable power, off solar, offshore wind, hydrogen, 99 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 4: and I think the proof is in the putting as 100 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 4: far as how the markets have received these. You can 101 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 4: see Exon and Chevron are currently trading at about thirty 102 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 4: percent higher on a forward earning spasis than the European group. 103 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:57,679 Speaker 4: So the market has certainly told them what they think. 104 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 4: The issue with the Europeans that they've been pulled in 105 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 4: two different directions. They have their traditional energy investors and 106 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 4: they also have a growing cadure of sustainability minded investors 107 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 4: that are demanding a quicker reduction in carbon intensity and 108 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 4: a quicker pacing of their energy transition investments. 109 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 2: Well, I watched the first season A Landman. I now 110 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 2: consider myself an expert on all things oil and gas, 111 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 2: but I have to put myself in the shoes of 112 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,160 Speaker 2: some of these European investors. I mean they're willing to 113 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: take lower valuations, lower returns for I guess a sociological 114 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 2: kind of bent there a little bit. Or they are 115 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 2: European investors? Are they saying scrolled, I'm just going to 116 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 2: go where i can get the best returns in this space. 117 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 2: I'm going to go to Exonmobile and Chevron and things 118 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 2: like that. How are the clients that you talked to, 119 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 2: how are they thinking about it? 120 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 6: Yeah? 121 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 4: So to be clear, I think that this ideology is 122 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 4: somewhat fading into the background or for the time being. 123 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 4: And I think it was initially viewed as the enegy 124 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 4: transition was unfolding a lot more quickly than in reality, 125 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 4: and so it was sort of seen as a heavy 126 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 4: carbon profile was seen as a major major risk to 127 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 4: these companies. But in reality, oil and gas investors want 128 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 4: oil and gas exposure and So the European oil and 129 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 4: gas companies have been sort of sitting on the fence 130 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 4: as a result, and they've been unable to placate either side, 131 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 4: either the energy investors or the sustainability minded ones. 132 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 5: I was looking through some headlines that came through earlier 133 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 5: on the Bloomberg terminal. So the US is also targeting 134 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 5: EU methane regulations in trade talks. Also the US target's 135 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 5: corporate sustainability due diligence directive that's coming from the Wall 136 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 5: Street Journal. What's the latest right now in terms of 137 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 5: the atmosphere and environment? What are people discussing right now 138 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 5: as we think about drilling really here. 139 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 4: So drilling is is taking a sort of very cautious 140 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 4: approach at the moment. The investment plans for these companies 141 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 4: are relatively flat year over year, and I think this 142 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 4: is shadowing really the commodity price environment that we're seeing. 143 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 4: So the growth is somewhat subdued. But what we what 144 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 4: we are seeing from this group is is a big 145 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 4: focus on shareholder return, so buybacks, continued dividend policy growth, 146 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 4: and a focus on trading for the for the larger 147 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 4: of the group. 148 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: All right, So Bill, just to bring in full circle 149 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 2: here Shell BP. Do you think something happens and if 150 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:44,319 Speaker 2: you do, with the regulators allow it. 151 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 4: So the regulatory issue is massive for this, you know. 152 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 4: I think it's important to note that this tie up 153 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 4: has been rumored to happen for you know, longer than 154 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 4: I've been alive, and it hasn't. And I think one 155 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 4: one of the big reasons for that is the anti 156 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 4: trust issue. And so this particularly applies for the fuel 157 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 4: retail marketing component of these companies, where you could potentially 158 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 4: see the majority or even all of the fuel supply 159 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 4: of certain countries being dominated by one company. Countries will 160 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 4: not like that, So I think this is probably the 161 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 4: number one reason why it hasn't happened so far. I 162 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 4: continue to think it's the reason why it won't happen. 163 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 4: But I would not be surprised Shell to be interested 164 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 4: in something like BPS onshore, a US shale business which 165 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 4: is called BPX, maybe their Gulf of Mexico portfolio, which 166 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 4: is where there would be huge operational overlap and potential 167 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 4: cost synergies offshore Brazil in the deep water, and particularly 168 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 4: BP's LNG business, which is about half of what Shells is, 169 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 4: but combining those, it would be controlling roughly a quarter 170 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 4: of the global LNG market, and we know that's a 171 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 4: corner stone of Shell's long term strategy. So I think 172 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 4: those could be interesting. It's just a matter of the 173 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,719 Speaker 4: right price and how badly BP wants to fix their 174 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 4: balance sheet. 175 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 2: Well, great stuff, as I always appreciate getting a few minutes 176 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 2: of your time. Will here, Senior Global Energy Antis, Bloomberg Intelligence. 177 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 2: He's over there in Queen Victoria Street, Bloomberg European HQ. 178 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 2: It is a spectacular building in the City of London, 179 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 2: right next to the Bank of England. It doesn't get 180 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 2: any more City of London than the Bloomberg HQ. 181 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:28,959 Speaker 3: Appreciate that. 182 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 183 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto 184 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 185 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 186 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 2: Har we got normal, Linda Paul Swen. You live here 187 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 2: in our Bloomberg Interactive Brooker's Studio streaming live on YouTube 188 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 2: as well, So check us out there on that intraweb thing. 189 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 2: Walgreens Boots Alliance report quarterly profit that beat Wallster rereet expectations. 190 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 2: But this is the last one is a public company. 191 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: They're going private. So I want to figure out what's 192 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 2: going on out there in the world of the pharmacy business. 193 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 2: Jonathan Palmer, Senior Healthcare Ants, So Bloomberg Intelligence joins us 194 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 2: here in our Bloomberg in ARCTI broker studio. He doesn't 195 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 2: mail it in from points beyond like his management team. 196 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 2: He's here in the city John to talk to us 197 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 2: about what is happening with Walgreens Boots. Not so much 198 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 2: to Ernest say, but what's going on to it? They're 199 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 2: going private? Why are they going private? 200 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, thanks for having me on, Paul. So it's an 201 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 6: interesting Wesson in terms of maybe how not to run 202 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 6: a business. I mean, Walgreens was formed about a decade 203 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 6: ago when it acquired Boots Alliance, the European businesses that 204 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 6: it owns, and then as subsequently sold the wholesale business 205 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 6: in Europe, and now it's just Walgreens and Boots pretty much. 206 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 6: And then they have another little bit of healthcare services 207 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 6: that acquired a couple of years ago. But pharmacy has 208 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 6: been in a structural decline for the last decade. You know, 209 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 6: the right AID tried to sell to then that got 210 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 6: squashed from anti trust purposes. Right AD has filed for 211 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 6: bankruptcy twice. Now there's a whole lot of pressure in 212 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 6: this industry, and that pressure is coming from the payers, 213 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 6: the PBMs, the insurance companies. And so it's an interesting 214 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 6: time because I think we've probably reached the bottom where 215 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 6: there's no more blood to be kind of squeezed from 216 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 6: the stone from pharmacies, and we're seeing new reimbursement models 217 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 6: come about what they call like cost plus, like Mark 218 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 6: Cuban's model cost plus drugs, where the PBMs are actually 219 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 6: forcing this on the pharmacies of the payment model. And 220 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 6: so it's interesting in that Walgreens is probably selling at 221 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 6: the bottom, but it might be you know, a little 222 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 6: brighter in the future from here. 223 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 5: So as we're looking at the pharmaceutical space, or its 224 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 5: pharmacy space more broadly, here you've got Walgreens, you've got CBS, 225 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 5: but you also have you know, right in and all 226 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 5: these other companies. 227 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 3: But they lean a lot into the retail space. 228 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 5: So how much of these companies is really retail versus 229 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 5: the pharma pharmacy side. 230 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 6: Yeah, so the model has always been that the pharmacy 231 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 6: in the back of the store was what drew people in, 232 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 6: and they have to walk by all the shaving cream 233 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 6: and shampoo and salty snacks, and those were higher margin products. 234 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 6: The pharmacy was there to get them in this store. 235 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 6: I mean, there's been the Amazon effect over the last 236 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 6: fifteen years, right, everything goes online, so people aren't buying 237 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,840 Speaker 6: things in the same way that they used to for 238 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 6: a convenience factor. I don't have to pick up my 239 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 6: shampoo right here at CBS because it's going to come 240 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 6: from Amazon tomorrow when I click the button. So that 241 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 6: piece of it has kind of gotten smaller and less 242 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 6: important over time. 243 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 3: So you did mention the idea of Amazon. 244 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 5: You've got Hymns and Hers, You've got all these other 245 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 5: brands that are literally bringing stuff to your doorstep. How 246 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 5: has this really impacted those brick and mortar companies. 247 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a great a great question because we've seen 248 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 6: a move to online business models. So you mentioned Hymns 249 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 6: and Hers. There's row Amazon has their own pharmacy. I mean, 250 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 6: they're not really big impactful companies from like a dollar perspective, 251 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 6: like their revenues or share of prescriptions is really quite low. 252 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 6: But I think what's happening is like we're just commoditizing 253 00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 6: all this right and making it super easy. I think 254 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,079 Speaker 6: ultimately in ten twenty years, all of our prescriptions will 255 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 6: be online. 256 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 2: Who sets prices for prescriptions? I know I'm going to 257 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 2: regret asking this question because the economics of your business 258 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 2: are the most complicated I've ever seen in my life. 259 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 6: Well, that's one of the big arguments around why there's 260 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 6: so much frustration from consumers and Washington and around drug pricing, 261 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 6: because our drug prices are the pointing at Boomberg's, are 262 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 6: different for people in Medicare and different from people from Medicaid. 263 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 6: There's no one price, Like if you go and buy 264 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 6: I don't know, a toy from Walmart, it's the same 265 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 6: no matter where you go, and it's usually probably within 266 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 6: spinning distance if you go to a competitor. Drug prices 267 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 6: are just all over the place. And so one of 268 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 6: the reasons the PBMs come under such fires, they're the 269 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 6: ones kind of controlling that system of pricing and making 270 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 6: it not transparent. And so I think what's happening is 271 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 6: we're getting to a place where transparency is being valued 272 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 6: and being pushed both in the market but also from 273 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 6: washing as well. 274 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 5: So we're looking at this situation right now where Walgreens 275 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 5: is being bought by Sycamore, you have Writing that went bankrupt, 276 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 5: you have all these companies struggling here. Where do you 277 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 5: see this going moving forward? In terms of those other 278 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 5: companies out there? Do you see more of these buyout situations? 279 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a good question when I think about the landscape. 280 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 6: I mean, as I mentioned a little while before, you know, 281 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 6: I think we're going to see this move to more 282 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 6: stuff online. Walgreens is interesting in that they've never really 283 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 6: partnered with insurance in the same way like CBS has 284 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 6: a PBM, they have insurance. They have this vertical model. 285 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 6: United Healthcare has a vertical model. I think those are 286 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 6: going to stay. I think we'll see I think we'll 287 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 6: still see retail pharmacies because people still need to go 288 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 6: around the corner and get something when they get I 289 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 6: don't know, a sinus infection or something like that they 290 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 6: needed today. But I think the value of those is 291 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 6: going to be minimized over time. 292 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 2: I go, after years of being a CBS guy, and 293 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 2: I've got like a jillion doses over the years of 294 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 2: like a Maxistilan for the four kids at CBS. I'm 295 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 2: now main Pharmacy, Spring Lake, New Jersey. No big company. 296 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 3: You switch, Hey, I switch, and. 297 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 6: But even those guys will say you switch to a 298 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 6: mom and pop. 299 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 2: Yes, now, but they'll say, we don't have everything. So 300 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 2: sometimes some things we just know we're not going to 301 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 2: carry because we can't. 302 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 6: We've done the same thing in Westfield, New Jersey. 303 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, so there you go. So CBS is good for me? 304 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 2: All right, Jonathan? Are we gonna have any M and 305 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 2: A in the space there's nobody left? 306 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 6: Well, we've had a bunch of IPOs and kind of 307 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 6: this like tech golf care bubble. I don't know if 308 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 6: bubble is the right term, but we've seen Hinge Health 309 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 6: come to the market recently Omada. There's a lot more 310 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 6: waiting in the wings. 311 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 2: See all right, Jonathan Palmer, Senior Healthcare ANTLS. Bloomberg Intelligence 312 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 2: is one of our best Joining us live here in 313 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 2: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 314 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 315 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 316 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 317 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 318 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 2: We got normal Melinda, you have Paul Sweeney. You were 319 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: live here in our Bloomerg Interactive broker studio, streaming live 320 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 2: on YouTube as well. We're doing all that kind of stuff. 321 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: Were out there on your smart TV, you know, like 322 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 2: Samsung TV. Maybe it's little Roku when you just search 323 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Pursuits and we just popped right up there. 324 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:14,919 Speaker 1: All right. 325 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: Micron Technologies reported earnings here today, a semiconductor company. I 326 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 2: don't know a lot about this company, so I said, 327 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 2: let's get somebody smart in here to talk to us 328 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 2: about it. Jake Sullivan Silverman, he's the one. We got 329 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 2: semi conductor anolds fro Bloomberg Intelligence. He joined us here 330 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 2: in our Bloomerg directed broker studio talk to us about 331 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 2: Micron Technology. What did they report and what's to tell 332 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 2: you about the semi space. 333 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, so they were had pretty strong results last night. 334 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:47,199 Speaker 7: It was a beaten rays very strong on earnings based 335 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 7: on you know, strong gross margins and the big growth 336 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 7: was really what drove the strength in the quarter. And 337 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 7: pricing was relatively we based on mix but generally in 338 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 7: the right upward trajectory, and really, you know, the way 339 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 7: to think about memory is it's pretty ubiquitous across electronics. 340 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 7: You can think about smartphones, PCs, servers, both traditional and AI. 341 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 7: You know, everything that you have that's a in your pocket, 342 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,959 Speaker 7: on your desk, sitting somewhere in your house, it's going 343 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 7: to have memory or storage some combination of the two 344 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 7: potentially as well. 345 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 5: So we all know that demand for AI computing is 346 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 5: really high right now. We're seeing a lot of those 347 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 5: companies capitalizing on it, and Wall Street really keeping a 348 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 5: high bar for these companies. 349 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 3: But how is Micron matching up with all the other companies? 350 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 3: Where are they in line? 351 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, so, so generally speaking, you know, it's important to 352 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 7: keep in mind that Micron and a lot of the 353 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 7: memory peers really trade on a cyclical basis. There are 354 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 7: quite a few you know, inventory build ups and then 355 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 7: you know, companies do restocking. And in the past there 356 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 7: wasn't really as much of an AI story for Microns specifically, 357 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 7: but with high bandwidth memory of some of their other products. 358 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 7: You can think about high capacity solid state drives and 359 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 7: high capacity DRAM modules. That has all been an AI 360 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 7: story for the most part, and we've seen a lot 361 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 7: of tailwinds in that business. Micron continues to gain share 362 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 7: execute very well. It was a pretty important part of 363 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 7: their story for this past quarter and heading into the 364 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 7: end of this fiscal year. 365 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 2: And I started the beginning, I didn't know a lot 366 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 2: about Micron Technologies. No surprise, the stock's up fifty percent 367 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 2: year to date. 368 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 3: What's the story there. 369 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, So, you know, there were definitely a lot of 370 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 7: worries once we got into the sort of you know, 371 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 7: tariff related potential headwinds in April, and that really was 372 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 7: a major drag on the stock price because there was 373 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 7: potential for higher prices across all of their product lines 374 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 7: and that could really be a hindrance to demand for 375 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 7: a lot of consumer related specifically products. But you know, 376 00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:01,400 Speaker 7: like PC's smartphones, USB drives and so as that kind 377 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 7: of you know, headwind kind of faded away, what's happened 378 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 7: is Micron has gotten those tailwinds from AI and bitter pricing, 379 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 7: and so there's just a couple of different factors that 380 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 7: have actually been really helping them out. They've continued to 381 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 7: generate solid free cash flow over the next over the 382 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 7: last several quarters, and the expectation is for that to continue. 383 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 7: That's very important in an industry that's very cyclical. 384 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 5: So it's out the conference called the Analysts, we're really 385 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 5: asking the CEO questions about HBM. They're trying to get 386 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,679 Speaker 5: a sense of how much growth is coming. 387 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,360 Speaker 3: Can you explain what that is for our listeners. 388 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, So, high bandwidth memory HBM it's a very important 389 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 7: part of AI servers. It's attached pretty much directly to 390 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 7: the GPUs that Nvidia cells that end up in these 391 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 7: big server stacks, and so high bandwidth memory has been 392 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 7: an area where Micron has been gaining share. Sk Heinex 393 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 7: was the incumbent, and Micron has been executed very well 394 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 7: on their roadmap. First on eight high as you'll hear 395 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 7: in the call right, but also twelve high as well. 396 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 7: So eight high is for Blackwell and twelve high is 397 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,880 Speaker 7: for Blackwell ulture GB three hundred that's coming out, So 398 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 7: that procurement cycle has already kicked in and they're going 399 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 7: to see a pretty strong demand over the next coming 400 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 7: months and quarters for their twelve high stack products. And 401 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 7: it's really all AI related demand for HBM. 402 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 3: It's AI. 403 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 2: So that takes us back to the big big picture, 404 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 2: And I know you and your technology research colleagues at 405 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence, you do a ton of work on AI. 406 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 2: You've got what I think is the definitive report on AI. 407 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 2: So folks, if you haven't seen it, go to the 408 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 2: Bloomberg BI go and that's the definitive. 409 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 3: Report on Wall Street. 410 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: I think on AI, we never talk about eighty eight 411 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 2: more because it's tariffs all day, every day. Just give 412 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,679 Speaker 2: us the latest on the AI story. The investors you 413 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 2: talk to, the clients you talk are they still as 414 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 2: bullish on AI as they were, say, last year. 415 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think there's a lot of optimism still in AI. 416 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 7: For Micron specifically, it's been you know, we've been talking 417 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 7: about in Nvidia kind of beating and raising for so 418 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 7: many quarters and maybe a little bit of a slowdown 419 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 7: last quarter or so. But but Micron, the story was 420 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,439 Speaker 7: so early. They still like very small percentage of their 421 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 7: revenue is AI related. So it's kind of interesting how 422 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,639 Speaker 7: there's been a little bit of a dichotomy in terms 423 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 7: of AI not being the same tailwind for Micron that 424 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 7: you'd see for some other companies like in Nvidia. But 425 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 7: there's still a lot of optimism in the investor community, 426 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 7: and there's quite a few people trying to understand where 427 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 7: does Micron really benefit from AI and how much more 428 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 7: you know, infrastructure expansion for AI, you know, hyperscale capics, 429 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 7: how does that benefit Micron and how much more do 430 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 7: we need to see for Micron or really benefit heavily 431 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 7: from that? 432 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 2: All right, Jake, thanks so much for joining us. Really 433 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 2: appreciate it. Jake Silverman, Semiconductor Anas Bloomberg Intelligence joining us 434 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 2: live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. We have 435 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 2: what I think is the best technology research on Wall 436 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,679 Speaker 2: Street mandates seeing anarag Rana lead it. But we've got 437 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 2: Animal globally covering the global technology space, Asia, Europe, the US, 438 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 2: We're everywhere. So that's how you have to cover technology 439 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 2: these days, and we make the investment. 440 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 441 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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